EUROPE AT THE NEW FRONTIER OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT1 SIMON MAXWELL
Abstract: The international development agenda is in flux, and this poses a challenge to all development actors, including the European Union. In this paper, I argue (1) that development progress has been substantial, with fewer countries now classified as “low income,” and most of those characterised as fragile states which need new kinds of intervention; (2) that the adoption of the new Sustainable Development Goals creates a new set of challenges, especially around the linking of poverty and environmental goals; (3) that the combination of a new poverty context and the increased profile of environmental goals shapes a new frontier in international development thinking and action; and (4) that the EU, especially the European institutions, rather than just the Member States, is well placed to lead at the new frontier, provided it follows through on current policy initiatives. An action agenda follows from these arguments, especially in relation to the formulation and implementation of the new EU global strategy. Policy coherence becomes ever more important in development cooperation. Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), European Union, poverty, environment, Official Development Aid (ODA), policy coherence.
The international development agenda is in flux, and this poses a challenge to all development actors, including the European Union. In this paper, I argue • First, that development progress has been substantial, with fewer countries now classified as “low income,” and most of those characterised as fragile states which need new kinds of intervention; • Second, that the adoption of the new Sustainable Development Goals creates a new set of challenges, especially around the linking of poverty and environmental goals; • Third, that the combination of a new poverty context and the increased profile of environmental goals shapes a new frontier in international development thinking and action; and • Fourth, that the EU, especially the European institutions, rather than just the Member States, is well placed to lead at the new frontier, provided it follows through on current policy initiatives. 1
This paper is written in a personal capacity.
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An action agenda follows from these arguments, especially in relation to the formulation and implementation of the new EU global strategy. Policy coherence becomes ever more important in development cooperation.
Development progress Development progress has been substantial, as illustrated by the annual Millennium Development Goals report. Extreme poverty has fallen from 47% of all people in the developing world in 1990, to 14% in 2015 – and the number in extreme poverty has fallen over the same period from 1.9 bn to 836 million. At the same time, global maternal mortality has fallen from 380 per hundred thousand live births in 1990 to 210 in in 2013. And the primary school net enrolment rate in sub-Saharian Africa rose from 52% in 1990 to 80% in 2015. Globally, the number of children of primary school age out of school halved between 2000 and 2015 (UNDP 2015). As Ban Ki-Moon observed: “The global mobilization behind the Millennium Development Goals has produced the most successful anti-poverty movement in history.” (Ki-Moon 2015). An important conclusion is that “development works.” Of course this is not because of aid but because of the efforts of people themselves around the world and their governments. Why, then, is international development still a priority? The same numbers that illustrate success also illuminate how much remains to be accomplished. It is still the case that 40% of the children who die do so from causes associated with malnutrition, that 20% of children do not finish primary school and that there are still many children out of school (UNDP 2015). To quote Ban Ki-Moon again: “I am keenly aware that inequalities persist and that progress has been uneven.” (Ki-Moon 2015). An important feature of the current poverty landscape is the increasing concentration of poverty in fragile states – countries where, by definition, institutions are weak and simply spending more money is unlikely to deliver progress. As Figure 1 shows, nearly half of the world’s extreme poor already live in fragile states, with the proportion expected to rise to somewhere between two thirds and three quarters by 2030. Overall, new World Bank numbers, published on the 1st of July, show that there are only 31 low income countries left in the world. Many countries that used to be low income have graduated: India, Nigeria, China, are al examples.
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Fig. 1. Poverty in fragile states (Source: Greenhill et al. 2015)
The New Global Goals The new SDG Framework was approved at the UN in September 2015. The seventeen new global goals have received much attention (Figure 2).
Fig. 2. The new Global Goals (Source: UN 2015)
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However, the preamble also deserves consideration, especially the emphasis on the five high-level objectives: people, planet, prosperity, peace and partnership. “Preamble to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development This Agenda is a plan of action for people, planet and prosperity. It also seeks to strengthen universal peace in larger freedom. We recognize that eradicating poverty in all its forms and dimensions, including extreme poverty, is the greatest global challenge and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development. All countries and all stakeholders, acting in collaborative partnership, will implement this plan. We are resolved to free the human race from the tyranny of poverty and want and to heal and secure our planet. We are determined to take the bold and transformative steps which are urgently needed to shift the world on to a sustainable and resilient path. As we embark on this collective journey, we pledge that no one will be left behind. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals and 169 targets which we are announcing today demonstrate the scale and ambition of this new universal Agenda. They seek to build on the Millennium Development Goals and complete what they did not achieve. They seek to realize the human rights of all and to achieve gender equality and the empowerment of all women and girls. They are integrated and indivisible and balance the three dimensions of sustainable development: the economic, social and environmental. The Goals and targets will stimulate action over the next 15 years in areas of critical importance for humanity and the planet. People We are determined to end poverty and hunger, in all their forms and dimensions, and to ensure that all human beings can fulfil their potential in dignity and equality and in a healthy environment. Planet We are determined to protect the planet from degradation, including through sustainable consumption and production, sustainably managing its natural resources and taking urgent action on climate change, so that it can support the needs of the present and future generations. Prosperity We are determined to ensure that all human beings can enjoy prosperous and fulfilling lives and that economic, social and technological progress occurs in harmony with nature. Peace We are determined to foster peaceful, just and inclusive societies which are free from fear and violence. There can be no sustainable development without peace and no peace without sustainable development. Partnership We are determined to mobilize the means required to implement this Agenda through a revitalized Global Partnership for Sustainable Development, based on a spirit of strengthened global solidarity, focused in particular on the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable and with the participation of all countries, all stakeholders and all people.
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The interlinkages and integrated nature of the Sustainable Development Goals are of crucial importance in ensuring that the purpose of the new Agenda is realized. If we realize our ambitions across the full extent of the Agenda, the lives of all will be profoundly improved and our world will be transformed for the better.” (UN GA 2015)
Two key features of the new SDGs are the universality of the agenda and the linking of poverty and environment. Thus, there is beginning to be a very interesting conversation in developed countries about the implications of the SDGs. Are cities sustainable? Has income inequality been reduced? It is also important that the new agenda links the environment and development because for too long those have lived in separated worlds.
A New Frontier in International Development An additional element in the drawing of a new frontier is the growing importance of global public goods. There is a long list of “things to fix” globally if national development strategies are to be successful: unstable food markets, globalization that does not work for the benefit of all, instability of the financial system, migration, corruption, lack of energy security, trade rules, taxation, and so on. Climate change illustrates the scale of the challenge. Two figures make the point. Figure 3 is taken from the lasts Emissions Gap Report from UNEP. It shows that the world need to reduce emissions to 42 Gt by 2030 in order to avoid temperature rising by more than 2 degrees. At present, national commitments, embodied in Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, imply emissions in that year of some 57 Gt. Emissions on this scale are associated with warming of 3-3.5 degrees.
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Fig. 3. The emission gap (Source: UNEP 2015)
Figure 4 illustrates the impact of only 2 degree warming on the area suitable for growing coffee in Uganda – essentially the disappearance of this crop. This is a general phenomenon. Studies indicate that the suitable altitude for coffee would move up 400 metres in most major producing countries, with many countries not having suitable land at that altitude.
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Fig. 4. Impact of temperature rise on robusta coffee in Uganda
Thus, development cooperation in the future will be different: less on poverty, more on global public goods; less in stable, low income countries, more in fragile states; probably less on ODA, more emphasis on this whole agenda on beyond aid and policy coherence. Many of these issues require collective action and there is therefore likely to be more multilateral aid and less bilateral aid in the future (ODI [s.a.]).
Is Europe the Right Answer? Is “Europe” the right answer to the questions posed by the new development agenda? Some would answer “Yes, because it is there.” Others take a more instrumental view, focusing on policy objectives and alternative routes to influence. Thus, the UK, to take one example, is a member of the UN Security Council, NATO, the Commonwealth, and the Council of Europe, as well as the EU. Ministers have choices, and decide which channel to use, depending on how effective they think each is going to be. That said, the EU does bring economies of scale, geographic reach, a multiplicity of instruments, and a combination of economic and political legitimacy that makes it unusual among development actors. Further, international comparisons show that EU Official Development Aid is as efficient as most other donors. The EU has a tradition of work on policy
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coherence, which is indeed mandated by the Treaty of the European Union. All this would seem to provide a basis for engagement on the new agenda (ETTG 2014). A new global strategy provides an opportunity to think strategically about priorities. Some criteria would be: the issue should be important to the EU; Brussels has to have a licence to operate from the member-states; the member-states have to be aligned, or alignable on the issue; the Commission or the EEAS has to have the capability, the resources and the instruments to be effective; there has to be a reasonable likelihood of success; and there has to be an external demand (Maxwell 2015).
Conclusion The new development frontier does not completely eclipse the old one. There is no suggestion that poverty reduction should be downgraded as an overall priority; nor that support for poverty reduction programmes in the poorest countries should fall. Nevertheless, the new context does suggest that development agencies will need upgrading if they are to respond to new agendas. There are multiple aspects to this task, requiring revision of: legislation; setting of results frameworks; the modalities of cross-Government coordination; the skills and competences of agency staff; and mechanisms of accountability, including by parliaments. Some countries have begun to work on this task (UK Parliament 2015); others will doubtless follow.
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European Think Tanks Group [ETTG]. 2014. Our Collective Interests: Why Europe’s Problems Need Global Solutions and Global Problems Need European Actions. Maastricht: European Think Tanks Group. Available at: http://ecdpm.org/publications/europes-problems-needglobal-solutions-ettg-report/ GREENHILL, Romilly, Paddy CARTER, Chris HOY, Marcus MANUEL. 2015. Financing the Future: How International Public Finance Should Fund a Global Social Compact to Eradicate Poverty. London: Overseas Development Institute. Available at: http://www.od i.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/9594.pdf KI-MOON, Ban. 2015. Foreword. In Millennium Development Goals Report [UNDP], p.3. United Nations: New York. MAXWELL, Simon. 2015. What Should Be the Priorities for the New EU Security Strategy [Blog Entry], 20.03.2015. http://www.simonmaxwell.eu/blog/what-should-be-the-priorities-forthe-new-eu-security-strategy.html Overseas Development Institute [ODI]. [s.a.]. Future Development Agencies [Webpage Section]. Available at: http://www.odi.org/programmes/aid-public-expenditure/futuredevelopment-agencies
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