Modelling access to and from the new HS2 stations in Birmingham and Solihull 25th February 2016 Philip Old

Background • New HS2 rail line between Birmingham and London is proposed. • Planet predicts how many people will use it BUT not the more local impacts – in particular: – “Where in the West Midlands will these passengers come from?” and – “How will they get to the HS2 stations?”

• The GBSLEP commissioned Mott MacDonald to develop PRISM to answer these questions.

PRISM Ownership Structure

Seven West Midlands Metropolitan Authorities

Highways Agency

Centro

Joint Application Team

Other Consultants

Mott MacDonald

RAND Europe

PRISM – A brief history • Originally developed in 20012004

• £500M transport infrastructure funding supported by PRISM

• Updated in 2008 to reflect changing land use and transport offer

• Over 120 applications in West Midlands

• Re-estimated in 2011-2013, using new Census data and bespoke surveys

• Over £10M saved in model development and data collection by having PRISM

“

PRISM is

well-regarded amongst

transport modellers and is perceived to be among the

best transport models in Europe

”

Peter Davidson Consultancy

PRISM

PRISM

£500,000,000 investment attracted

PRISM-Location Engine for New Stations

PRISM-Location Engine for New Stations

PRISM-Location Engine for New Stations

This ‘adds in’ trips, to answer the 2 questions raised earlier. Additionally there is a modification in PRISM to model the suppression of demand on conventional rail due to the improvement of accessibility brought about by HS2. However PRISM is not the best model to try and model these longer distance movements so it will only be approximate.

Forecasts • The current forecasting process in PRISM is not suitable for forecasting HS2 long-distance trips because: – the PRISM demand model only generates trips for residents of the West Midlands – HS2 will be used by a much wider catchment.

• PRISM-LENS combines the strengths of Planet and PRISM

Forecasts • A range of inputs was required including: – proposed changes in highway infrastructure, in Birmingham City Centre and at M42 Junction 6 – this image is from HS2’s website: (http://assets.hs2.org.uk/sites/default/files/hb_pdf/H2%20%20Birmingham%20Interchange%20Station.pdf)

Forecasts • A range of inputs was required including: – proposed changes in highway infrastructure, in Birmingham City Centre and at M42 Junction 6

– Proposed changes to public transport such as Metro extensions and Sprint services – Demographic changes (population, jobs)

• Forecasts were produced for 2031 (phase 1) and 2041 (phase 2)

Outputs Figure E.31:

2031 AM Curzon Street HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)

Outputs Figure E.25:

2031 AM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (PT)

Outputs Figure E.1:

2031 AM UKC HS2 passenger access/egress (Car)

Outputs Figure D.2:

2031 Accessibility to HS2 Interchange Station IP (PT)

Outputs accessibility

Summary • In subsequent model applications, the LENS model will be able to analyse the change in accessibility of the two HS2 stations compared to the reference scenario and adjust the forecast mode share accordingly. • By combining the strengths of each model, PRISM-LENS will be able to forecast how HS2 passengers will travel to the two stations in various future year scenarios.