A CLEAN ENERGY FUTURE How the energy transition offers new opportunities
to create a better everyday life for the many people.
CONTENT
CLICK ON AN ITEM BELOW TO GO TO THAT PAGE
1. INTRODUCTION: THE NEW ENERGY ECOSYSTEM 2. WHAT DOES AN ENERGY TRANSITION MEAN? 3. HOW FAST ARE THINGS CHANGING?
4. DRIVERS AND BARRIERS OF THE TRANSITION 1.
POLITICS
2.
TECHNOLOGY
4.
PEOPLE
3.
ECONOMICS
5. KEY INNOVATION TRENDS 1.
INTERNET OF THINGS
2.
AI & DATA OPTIMIZATION
4.
BLOCKCHAIN & DISTRIBUTED MARKETS
3. 5.
AS-A-SERVICE MODELS SMART CITIES
6. INNOVATIONS IN THE CONSUMER ECOSYSTEM 1.
HOME GENERATION
3.
SMART SERVICES
2. 4. 5. 6.
HOME STORAGE P2P ENERGY
SMART HOME
ELECTRIC VEHICLES
7. GLOBAL MARKET SNAPSHOTS 1.
EUROPE
2.
ASIA
4.
AFRICA
3. 5.
AMERICAS AUSTRALIA
HOW TO USE THIS DOCUMENT
As a guide
The aim of this document is to give a broad overview of developments within the energy transition, zooming in on consumer innovations. With such a complex and rich topic, it is impossible to provide a full and detailed understanding. In the texts, several links are provided for further reading.
As a reference book
The document is structured in a way that is easy to browse, update and make additions to. The central framework acts as a solid foundation. It can be used as a reference book that evolves over time, for all topics related to the energy transition.
As a presentation toolbox
The deck is filled with stories, examples, quotes, data and images, which can be used for presentation and communication purposes.
ORGANIZING FRAMEWORK
An organizing framework
A framework has been developed to organise drivers, trends and innovations of the energy transition. The framework can be updated and extended over time. It consists of three levels:
1. Drivers & barriers
These are the fundamentals that drive and restrain the transition. The categories remain relevant and consistent. Their state is subject to constant development.
2. Enabling innovation trends
These are technology-driven trends that affect the energy transition, but extend beyond it. They are long-term “megatrends” and their implications may change over time. The selection is neither complete nor definite. Others may be added.
3. Consumer innovations
These are innovations emerging in consumer markets that address new energy needs and opportunities. The categories are not definitive. New and relevant innovations pop up everyday.
consumer innovations home generation
enabling innovation trends
transition drivers & barriers
home storage
internet of things
smart energy
services
AI & data-driven
optimisation
politics global agreements
national advantages
vested interests
as-a-service
models
technology emerging tech
peer to peer
energy
tech performance
legacy infrastructure
smart home
& devices
distributed markets
& blockchains
economics market development
tech price drop
business maturity
electric
vehicles
smart cities
people new social norms
emerging consumer classes
consumer inertia
WELCOME TO THE NEW ENERGY ECOSYSTEM OF THE MANY PEOPLE
01
WHERE SOLAR CELLS ARE EVERYWHERE – BUT HARD TO SPOT
TESLA SOLAR ROOF
WHERE BATTERIES ARE AVAILABLE FOR THE MANY PEOPLE
IKEA BATTERY
WHERE LEFT-OVER ENERGY IS SHARED WITH YOUR NEIGHBOURS
BROOKLYN MICROGRID
WHERE SMART SERVICES BUY AND SELL ENERGY FOR YOU
DRIFT
WHERE ENERGY CONSUMPTION IS REDUCED BY TINY ROBOTS
AMBI CLIMATE 2
WHERE YOU ASK YOUR HOME HOW MUCH YOU HAVE ALREADY SAVED
SENS + ALEXA
AND WHERE ALL OF YOUR RIDES ARE ELECTRIC
GENZE MAHINDRA
WHAT DOES AN ENERGY TRANSITION MEAN?
02
ENERGY TRANSITIONS: A SIMPLE DEFINITION
source: science
“The time that elapses between the introduction of a new fuel or prime mover and its rise to 25% of national or global market share. Grand transitions can occur when they reach 50% of a market.”
A CLOSER LOOK: WHAT CHANGES UNDERNEATH
source: science
“Big transitions are the sum of many small ones. Looking at overall energy consumption will miss the small-scale changes that are the foundations of the transitions.”
IT’S NOT ONLY ABOUT RENEWABLES THE ENERGY TRANSITION IS SHAPED BY:
ELECTRIFICATION
source: World Economic Forum
DECENTRALISATION
DIGITISATION
ELECTRIFICATION OF THE THINGS WE USE
DECENTRALISATION OF OUR ENERGY SUPPLY
DIGITALISATION OF EVERYTHING AROUND US
HOW THE MARKET TRANSFORMS: FROM A ONE-WAY SYSTEM TO AN ENERGY CLOUD
ONE-WAY SYSTEM
ENERGY CLOUD
wind farms
with energy
storage power
plants
power plant transmission
& distribution
residential
commercial
offices with
rooftop solar
utility/community
solar wind farms with
cogeneration
commercial
industrial
source: Navigant
factories with
natural gas combine heat and power
electric vehicles
homes with solar
PV and storage
hospital campus
with microgrid
THE CONSUMER EXPERIENCE: FROM ENERGY AS A COMMODITY TO AN ENGAGING ECOSYSTEM
FUTURE ENERGY ECOSYSTEM OF THE MANY PEOPLE
home generation
home storage
electric vehicles
peer to peer
energy
smart energy
services
smart home
& devices
HOW FAST ARE THINGS CHANGING?
03
For the second year in a row, renewable energy accounted for more than half the new power generation capacity added worldwide. 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 %
source: BNEF
2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RENEWABLE CAPACITY CHANGE AS % OF GLOBAL CAPACITY CHANGE RENEWABLE POWER AS % OF GLOBAL POWER CAPACITY
How wind and solar have spread around the world: Wind
Solar
Sales of electric vehicles were 42 per cent higher than in 2015, growing eight times faster than the overall market. 2.250.000,00 1.687.500,00 1.125.000,00 562.500,00 0,00
source: International Energy Agency
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 GLOBAL ELECTRIC CAR STOCK NEW ELECTRIC CAR REGISTRATIONS
The storage capacity of big lithium ion battery systems more than doubled last year.
In February, the world’s largest battery storage facility went online: The Escondido project in San Diego. Its 400,000 batteries are able to serve 20,000 customers for four hours. source: Financial Times
TONS OF OIL EQUIVALENT (MILLIONS)
Global coal production saw the largest annual decline on record. The amount of planned coal power capacity dropped more than a half.
source: BNEF
300 225 150 75
0
-75
-150 -225 -300
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
GLOBAL EXPANSION OF COAL PRODUCTION
2010
2012
2014
2016
BIG OIL IS TAKING NOTICE
“The energy transition is change on a global scale. We must embrace it. It is unstoppable.” Ben van Beurden, CEO Shell
source: Financial Times
“What we are currently living through is not really on the scale of a transition, but rather an industrial revolution.” Isabelle Kocher, CEO ENGIE Group
“The low carbon future will reshape the energy space. We should look for, and act on the opportunities it offers.” Eldar Saetre, CEO Statoil
NEW POWERS ARE TAKING THE LEAD
“The world must turn to the sun to power our future.” Narendra Modi
“The Paris Agreement is a hard-won achievement. All signatories should stick to it rather than walk away.” Xi Jingping
“Renewables—particularly solar—is an area in which Saudi Arabia has world leading potential. Our goal is to become a solar powerhouse.” Khalid al-Falih
“We underestimate the power of this energy transformation. You can’t model it… It goes faster than expected… It will happen, and the best thing you can do is be at the forefront.” – Ibrahim Baylan, minister for energy of Sweden
PREDICTIONS FOR 2040 BY BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE
1. Solar and wind dominate future of electricity
72% of the $10.2 trillion spent on new power generation worldwide by 2040 will be invested in new wind and solar PV plants.
2. Solar energy’s challenge to coal gets broader
Solar is already as cheap as coal in Germany, Australia, the U.S., Spain and Italy. Its cost is set to drop another 66% by 2040. By 2021, it will be cheaper than coal in China, India, Mexico, the U.K. and Brazil as well.
3. Onshore and offshore wind costs fall fast
Onshore wind costs will fall 47% by 2040, thanks to cheaper, more efficient turbines and advanced OPEX regimes. In the same period, offshore wind costs will drop by 71%, helped by experience, competition and economies of scale.
4. China and India lead in energy investment
They will account for 28% and 11% of all investment in power generation by 2040. Just under a third of Asia Pacific’s investment in energy will go to wind, a third to solar, 18% to nuclear and 10% to coal and gas.
source: BNEF
5. Batteries boost the reach of renewables
Large grid-scale batteries increasingly compete with natural gas to provide system flexibility at times of peak demand. In conjunction with small-scale batteries, this will help renewable energy reach 74% penetration in Germany, 38% in the U.S., 55% in China and 49% in India by 2040.
6. Electric vehicles boost electricity use
In Europe and the U.S., EVs will account for 13% and 12% of electricity demand by 2040. Charging EVs flexibly, when renewables are generating and wholesale prices are low, will help the system adapt to intermittent solar and wind.
7. Homeowners’ love of solar grows
By 2040, rooftop PV will account for as much as 24% of electricity production in Australia, 20% in Brazil, 15% in Germany, 12% in Japan and 5% in the U.S. and India. This, combined with the growth of large-scale renewables, will reduce the need for existing large-scale coal and gas plants.
WHAT IS DRIVING THE TRANSITION AND HOLDING IT BACK?
04
consumer innovations home generation
enabling innovation trends
transition drivers & barriers
home storage
internet of things
smart energy
services
AI & data-driven
optimisation
politics global agreements
national advantages
vested interests
as-a-service
models
technology emerging tech
peer to peer
energy
tech performance
legacy infrastructure
smart home
& devices
distributed markets
& blockchains
economics market development
tech price drop
business maturity
electric
vehicles
smart cities
people new social norms
emerging consumer classes
consumer inertia
POLITICS
THE GLOBAL POLICY PUSH Policy as a kickstarter Policymaking has played a vital role in kicking off the transition. Thanks to pioneering governments such as Germany, regulations and financial incentives have spurred the adoption of clean energy technologies. If left completely to the market, this would’ve taken many more years.
The policy-versus-market debate Some experts argue that subsidies and carbon taxes are indispensable to account for the costs of climate change. Others believe that these tools get in the way of healthy market mechanisms and could hinder the transition in the long run. In many countries, however, it is fossil energy that is still heavily subsidised.
NUMBER OF CLIMATE LAWS WORLDWIDE
1.400 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 1996
2000 total executive
2004
2008
total legisative
2012
2016
POLITICS / INTRO
NUMBER OF CLIMATE LAWS WORLDWIDE
Laws
0
2-4
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 20
POLITICS / INTRO
POLITICAL POWER PLAY Why energy politics are complicated Politicians have been reluctant to push the transition out of fear of economic disadvantage. Developing nations expect the industrialised world to do the heavy lifting on emissions cuts. Industrialised countries – noting that the developing world will account for most of future emissions growth – want assurances that such growth will be curbed.
More vested interests Meanwhile, powerful lobby groups influence decision-making, protecting the vested interests of fossil fuel and carbon-heavy industries. These conflicts of interest make energy policy a complex and slow affair.
POLITICS / BARRIERS
THE GAME THEORY OF
CLIMATE COOPERATION
Why global cooperation is challenging Since CO2 doesn’t stay within national borders, the benefits of climate action are shared globally. But when a nation takes action, it incurs direct costs. Therefore, some nations may chose to free ride on the actions of others, which in turn makes others reluctant to take the initiative.
A game theory perspective Game theory – the mathematical study of cooperation and conflict – offers scenarios for such ‘free-rider problems’, the potential outcome of which is a ‘tragedy of the commons’; when everyone acts in their selfinterest, but contrary to the common good by exhausting all of our resources.
Deer hunting When the situation turns into a ‘stag hunt’, there is a chance of successful cooperation. This happens when the outcome of cooperation (catching a deer), clearly outweighs that of mere individual action (catching a rabbit). This situation only occurs when all nations starts realising the benefits of action over the costs of climate change.
POLITICS / BARRIERS
WHEN BENEFITS START OUTWEIGHING COSTS
Climate issues becoming immediate Effects of climate change and pollution are becoming more immediate around the world. When floods, droughts or smog start impacting the lives of people, climate action becomes a direct national interest.
Clean tech as an economic advantage More and more countries are attracted to clean tech in pursuit of competitive advantage. With the US taking a backseat, China, India, Canada and others are inclined to be first movers and claim clean tech leadership, advancing their nations’ industries.
Soft power Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, presents opportunities for others to reorder the world’s power structure. For countries like China and India, taking the lead and forming new alliances is a way to gain international status and soft power.
POLITICS / DRIVERS
“As with much in China, the clean-energy drive is much more about economic advantage, national security and political stability than an idealistic commitment to saving the earth.”
source: The New York Times
POLITICS / DRIVERS
POLITICAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE In places affected by climate change, political and economical stability is at risk. It causes food shortages, displacement and migration. Over the next few years, millions of people risk becoming climate refugees. Like this Bolivian fisherman.
POLITICS / DRIVERS
2016: WORLD’S WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD Last year, weather records were broken around the world, causing heatwaves, storms, droughts and floods. The effects of climate change are becoming more palpable and immediate, waking up people and politicians to the threat.
global temperature anomalies
POLITICS / DRIVERS
TECHNOLOGY
WHAT TECHNOLOGY WANTS Technology is an unstoppable force driving most of the shifts in today’s society, including the energy transition. What may seem like complex energy challenges today, will soon be much easier to solve thanks to technological advancements. Technology has set its path towards a clean energy future, and there’s no return.
Solar farm in the Mojave Desert TECHNOLOGY / INTRO
THE NEED FOR A BETTER GRID How to deal with renewables’ intermittency? The most abundant renewable sources – wind and sun – are variable, which causes huge power spikes and dips. Yet we’re stuck with an old electricity grid, which was not designed to cope with this. How do we upgrade the entire grid to become sufficiently smart, efficient and reliable?
The ‘100% or not’ debate Among scientists, a heated debate is going on, whether a 100% renewable supply is even possible or we still need up to 20% of dispatchable sources to fall back on. Both sides agree, however, that renewables can and should make up for the vast majority of power supply.
TECHNOLOGY / BARRIERS
STEADILY ADVANCING CLEAN TECH Performance records keep getting broken Clean energy technologies are steadily becoming more powerful and efficient, although not at a ‘Moore’s Law’ pace. Solar cells are getting more efficient, driving down costs. The same goes for batteries. Some technologies, like lithium-ion, are hitting their upper limits, but new breakthrough technologies are on the horizon.
Energy efficiency Often underestimated are advancements made in energy efficiency, which are essential in curbing the world’s growing energy needs. In the United States, energy consumption is past its peak and falling, for a large part thanks to LED bulbs.
The world’s largest artificial sun, used for solar research
TECHNOLOGY / DRIVERS
THE RACE TO SOLAR PANEL EFFICIENCY The race to solar panel efficiency has been a long one, but has been heating up in recent years. Take a look at the advancements in commercially viable solar cells. Using experimental technologies, even higher efficiencies, of over 40% have been reached.
March 2017 Japanese company Kaneko
achieves 26.3% efficiency
December 2016 Chinese company Trina Solar
announces 24.13% efficiency
October 2015 SolarCity announces 22.04% efficiency Panasonic announces 22.5% efficiency 2012 Solar Frontier 17.8% efficiency 1960 Hoffman Electrics achieves 14% efficiency in PV cells
November 2015 Sun power achieves 22.8% efficiency validated by NREL June 2015 First Solar breaks 18.2% efficiency
1992 University of South Florida fabricates 15.89% efficient thin-film cell
TECHNOLOGY / DRIVERS
NEVER GOOD ENOUGH
the evolution of battery technology
Innovation has no age Back in 1980, John Goodenough co-invented the first lithium-ion battery which was later commercialised by Sony in 1991. In 2017, now 94 years of age, he announced a new breakthrough. With his team, he developed the first all-solid-state battery cells that could lead to faster-charging, longer-lasting batteries.
The next generation battery Lithium-ion is reaching its full potential. In recent years, promising new technologies have been presented, such as lithium-sulfur and lithium-air, but they still have to be proven commercially viable. Meanwhile, li-ion prices are dropping, which inhibits investments in next gen batteries.
TECNHNOLOGY / DRIVERS
DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY FORCES Technologies that change everything Breakthroughs in other technology fields may have large and unforeseen impacts on the energy transition. With accelerating advancements in game-changing areas, such as machine learning and quantum computing, today’s energy challenges could quickly be overcome. Moreover, when emerging technologies collide, entirely new possibilities open up.
TECHNOLOGY / DRIVERS
TECHNOLOGIES TO WATCH OUT FOR
Machine learning The rising intelligence of self-learning machines, which allows grids, vehicles and services to be automated and optimised with unprecedented sophistication.
Internet of things The ubiquity of smart and connected
devices that generate vast amounts of data and enable optimisation of energy supply and demand.
Advanced materials The development of new materials, such as nanostructures, which supercharge energy technologies, like batteries, solar cells and fuel cells.
Blockchain The proliferation of blockchain-based decentralised marketplaces that allow secure peer-to-peer payments between energy suppliers and consumers.
Quantum computing Computers working on qubits that vastly increase processing power and will take cloud & data technologies to the next level. This, for example, will help solve complex grid issues.
ECONOMICS
GOING FROM OLD TO NEW BUSINESS
The need for new business models With growing opportunities for people to generate and store their own electricity, conventional energy business models are being challenged. However, definitive winning alternatives haven’t emerged yet. Until businesses find new scalable and sustainable models, they will keep preserving business-as-usual.
Uncertain investments To innovate, companies must make large up-front investment to develop new hardware and scale up manufacturing, all while chasing moving price and performance targets as incumbent technologies improve. This makes mature technologies the safer and surer bet.
From subsidies to competitive markets Subsidies are key to kickstart investments, but also distort markets. They can boost certain technologies in the short-term, but may hinder structural innovation through competition. They also adds to uncertainty: when China recently cut EV subsidies, sales plummeted. Getting from subsidized to competitive markets is a challenge. ECONOMICS / BARRIERS
“Well, there’s no fortune to be made. Even if you have a new energy source that costs the same as today’s and emits no CO2, it will be uncertain compared with what’s tried-and-true and already operating at unbelievable scale. Without a substantial carbon tax, there’s no incentive for innovators or plant buyers to switch.” Bill Gates, 2015
ECONOMICS / BARRIERS
WHEN CLEAN MEANS CHEAP & BIG
Tipping prices Solar and wind are already the same price or cheaper than coal in many countries. Batteries are getting cheaper fast, driving down EV prices. This will soon create tipping points at which clean energy and technologies simply become the most affordable option.
Markets of scale Despite the buzz that surrounds brands like Tesla, clean tech markets are still niche. But thanks to the rapid development of emerging markets and convergence of clean tech segments, there will soon be global markets of significant scale, with better opportunities for commercialisation.
Bets on the future With the energy transition looking more inevitable every day, companies are starting to make bigger and bolder bets on the future. Volvo announced it is moving away from conventional engines by 2019. Oil companies are future-proofing their business. This will drive investments in energy innovation.
ECONOMICS / DRIVERS
DROPPING PRICES OF CLEAN ENERGY AND BATTERIES LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY (WORLD AVERAGE)
LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PRICE (WORLD AVERAGE)
0,8
1000
0,7 750
0,5
dollars/kWh
cents/kWh
0,6 0,4 0,3 0,2
500 250
0,1 0
2001
2003
2005
2007
Solar Photovoltaic Wind-Offshore source: BNEF
2009
2011
2013
2015
0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Land-based wind Coal ECONOMICS / DRIVERS
PEOPLE
ENERGY: FROM LOW TO HIGH INTEREST How to engage the many people? Consumers are key enablers of the energy transition by taking a more active role in the energy market and adopting smart services and technologies. However, electricity is still largely perceived only as a commodity, which makes consumer engagement with new technologies a significant challenge. How do we go from passive to active consumers?
PEOPLE / BARRIERS
“Only seven per cent of under-35s in the UK say they fully understand their energy bill, with nearly 40 per cent unable to identify that electricity is measured in Kilowatt hours.”
source: Energy Savings Trust
PEOPLE / BARRIERS
THE RISE OF NEW CONSUMER GROUPS The new global middle class In (former) developing countries, new groups of middle class consumers are emerging. Most notably in China and India, while Africa is making small steps. They live in big cities, are increasingly eco-conscious and develop more sophisticated status signals. Making them potential clean tech adopters.
Millenial habits Millennials may not understand what a kWh means, but they are very accustomed to using digital services and p2p platforms for ride or home-sharing. They have also adopted conscious consumerism as a status symbol. New generations of consumers may drive the adoption of smart and green innovations.
PEOPLE / DRIVERS
“Instead of beginning in a corner of the UK in a world of 1.5 billion people, and then slowly spreading to western Europe and North America, this sustainability revolution is being jump started in rich and poor countries alike in every corner of this world of 7.4 billion people.” Al Gore, 2017
PEOPLE / DRIVERS
WHEN CLEAN BECOMES THE NEW NORM Social tipping points drive consumer demand When clean tech innovations come to market, they are mostly niche products that offer cultural capital to an ‘aspirational class’ of consumers. But with sustainable products becoming less expensive, less eccentric and more common, mainstream consumer groups start seeing them as ‘in-group symbols’. While, conventional status signifiers, such as big car engines, start to lose some of their appeal.
PEOPLE / DRIVERS
KEY INNOVATION TRENDS
05
consumer innovations home generation
enabling innovation trends
transition drivers & barriers
home storage
internet of things
smart energy
services
AI & data-driven
optimisation
politics global agreements
national advantages
vested interests
as-a-service
models
technology emerging tech
peer to peer
energy
tech performance
legacy infrastructure
smart home
& devices
distributed markets
& blockchains
economics market development
tech price drop
business maturity
electric
vehicles
smart cities
people new social norms
emerging consumer classes
consumer inertia
THE INTERNET
OF THINGS
THE WORLD’S MOST SOPHISTICATED PIECE OF EQUIPMENT Data as the new electricity The internet of things (IoT) is the everexpanding ecosystem of connected devices – such as digital sensors, home appliances and wearable smart device – exchanging data without the need for direct human interaction. This creates a completely new electricity-like infrastructure layer for data.
8.4 billion connected things 8.4 billion connected things will be in use worldwide in 2017, up 31 percent from 2016, reaching 20.4 billion by 2020. Anything that can be connected, will be connected. It will form “the biggest, most sophisticated piece of equipment that we’ve deployed across the planet – ever”, according to technologists.
TRENDS / IOT
SMART DEVICES FOR SMARTER ENERGY USE
Smarter grids One of the biggest applications of the IoT lies in energy optimisation: sensors deployed across the electricity grid enable suppliers to remotely monitor energy usage and adjust generation and distribution. At the same time, it allows connected devices to moderate their energy use based on fluctuations in supply/ demand and prices.
Smarter people For consumers, the IoT creates an energy ecosystem in which everything participates – from cars to fridges. This offers more insight and control over energy use than ever before. Thanks to smart services, interaction could become easy and fun, while leaving complex optimisations to AI. Soon, anyone can be a micromanager of their own energy grid.
TRENDS / IOT
WHEN YOUR WATER KETTLE BREAKS THE INTERNET Privacy and security issues pose the biggest risks and barriers to widespread IoT adoption. When everything is connected, everything can be hacked. To win the people's trust, the IoT will have to proof it can be safe and secure.
Armies of rogue devices Devices hacked and coordinated into bombing servers with traffic were responsible for several recent Internet failures. These botnets run on a piece of malware called ‘Mirai' which infects home devices and recruits them into giant armies. Anyone with bitcoins and bad intentions can rent such a botnet.
Spying TVs WikiLeaks revealed how the CIA hacked their way into smart TVs. They used vulnerabilities in Samsung TVs to capture conversations, even when TVs appeared to be switched off. The 'Weeping Angel' malware is installed via the USB drive, limiting its use for mass surveillance. Still, the broader implications are scary.
“The Internet of things – which is really about the connecting of devices and the acquisition of data – ultimately creates much more visibility: the visibility of the performance of the grid, visibility of where we lose energy, and where the savings potential really is.”
source: The Guardian
TRENDS / IOT
AI & DATA DRIVEN OPTIMISATION
MACHINES LEARNING FAST AI is seen as a technology that may either save or destroy the world. At the very least, it will radically transform industries. Recently, developments have been speeding up. How machines learn By experimenting, computers are figuring out how to do things that no programmer could teach them. This learning through trial-anderror is called ‘reinforcement learning’. Another form of machine learning is ‘deep learning’: the use of algorithms based on the human brain, called neural networks. The combination of both – for example in Google’s DeepMind – has recently been driving breakthroughs in machine intelligence.
Google DeepMind learning how to do parkour
TRENDS / AI
HOW AI HELPS THE ENERGY TRANSITION
Solving intermittency issues The combination of data and machine learning could make renewable energy sources more grid-friendly. By accurately predicting patterns in demand and supply, fluctuations are smoothed out and renewables use is maximized. In Germany, AI is already used to balance the grid more efficiently.
Energy efficiency When applied to the internet of things, machine intelligence helps save large amounts of power, by optimising the energy use of every connected device. Google is already employing its reinforcement learning technologies to improve the energy efficiency of its data centers, allegedly saving millions.
TRENDS / AI
DEEPMIND’S ENERGY AMBITIONS Google wants to smarten up the UK grid Using the same machine learning algorithms that recently beat the world GO champion, Google has offered to optimize the UK’s national energy grid. By anticipating energy demand and supply, Google believes its DeepMind technology could slash at least 10% of the entire nation’s energy bill. They are now exploring possibilities to cooperate with the UK National Grid. TRENDS / AI
AS-A-SERVICE
MODELS
EVERYTHING AS A SERVICE
The rise of as-a-service models From food delivery to pet-sitting; in recent years, the 'X as a service' (XaaS) model has been transforming the way industries do business. Demand-based services suit today's economy and society: mobile-first, clouddriven, accessible, flexible and cost-effective.
The business side: platform enterprises Platforms that connect value creators and consumers in new ways, like Uber or Airbnb, are thriving. They manage to scale rapidly, with almost no assets, and create network effects that lead to winner-takes-most market positions.
The consumer side: acces over ownership A new generation of consumers is expecting convenient on-demand services. Also, they increasingly value experiences over buying stuff, creating a trend towards 'access over ownership'. XaaS models serve their lifestyle needs with a compelling experience/price ratio.
ECONOMICS / BUSINESS MODELS
NEW ENERGY BUSINESS
MODELS In the energy cloud, conventional business models are being challenged. Emerging models generally disfavour the ownership of infrastructure and transform energy companies into digital service providers. Bundling home services One strategic vision is to bundle a combination of solar, battery storage, demand response and energy efficiency, which would eliminate upfront costs and allows customers to automate energy buying and selling. There’s also the opportunity to offer integrated services that go beyond energy, including mobility, smart home and security.
Community services Rooftop solar is not available for all inhabitants of buildings – for example when you don’t own your roof. Community solar could then be offered as an alternative. This would also create economies of scale for the financing of technologies and generate social momentum for adoption within communities.
BLOCKCHAIN MARKETS
THE RISE OF BLOCKCHAIN Blockchain is hot In recent years, there has been quite a bit of buzz around blockchain; first among cryptoenthusiasts, later in the financial world and now everyone seems to take notice. Including the energy industry.
The promise of blockchain Blockchain allows people to transact peer-topeer, without intermediaries and in a secure way. It enables an economy in which digital assets can be instantly exchanged and where trust is not established by central banks but through consensus and computer code.
Algorithmically created bitcoin note, as imagined by an artist
HOW IT WORKS Tracking the exchange of digital assets This is the problem that blockchain solves. If I hand you an apple, you physically own it and I can’t give it to anyone else. But with a digital asset, I might send it to other people as well. It needs be tracked, but by whom?
A distributed ledger Blockchain stores transactions in a ledger; a digital spreadsheet that everyone can see and is copied to all computers in the network. This network is essentially a chain of computers that must all approve an exchange before it can be verified and recorded. This means a hacker can’t just corrupt a single file to fake transactions.
Want to really, really get it? This video is the best Blockchain explainer we’ve come across. Sit back, take your time and don’t be ashamed to skip back.
BLOCKHAIN & ENERGY MARKETS
Blockchain could offer the infrastructure that makes a truly distributed energy system possible. By letting energy producers and consumers directly and automatically trade with one another. Peer-to-peer energy It would allow home generators to sell surplus energy to other people on the grid. In New York, Brooklyn neighbors are already testing such a system.
Flexible trading Blockchain may also let businesses trade energy in a flexible way. For example, a factory could sell five minutes of unused power during a down time to a different factory that needs the additional power.
Switching suppliers Finally, using blockchain, customers could easily and quickly switch energy suppliers. Even within a day. British startup Electron is building a blockchain platform for this.
SMART
CITIES
THE FUTURE OF URBAN LIVING
Making big cites safe and livable More than 50% of the world's population now lives in cities, and this figure is rapidly growing. To address the complex and changing needs of citizens, smart cities introduce technological solutions. Cities have begun to utilise growing amounts of data at their disposal to manage infrastructure and resources more efficiently, and improve the quality of life.
Cities as a platform On the one hand, smart cites are about management and optimisation. Advances such as machine learning, cloud computing and inexpensive sensors make data-driven governance more powerful. On the other hand, smart cities enable new forms of citizen engagement. By adopting a ‘city-as-platform’ approach, data and services are made available for people to use and contribute to.
SMART CITIES & ENERGY INNOVATION With a growing majority of people living in urban areas, cities offer a promising platform to drive and shape the energy transition. Smart grids Smart grids rely on smart meters, which send information about a building’s energy usage back to a central system, in order to efficiently allocate resources. This could help cities identify and address power demands and outages. Moreover, it allows the integration of renewable generation, electric vehicle charging and energy storage into the main grid.
City of things As street lights, solar panels, thermostats, cars, trams and ad screens become interconnected, energy use can be optimised in advanced ways. Using AI and data analytics, a city's energy needs could be precisely anticipated and met.
Carbon-zero cities Smart cities are setting ambitious goals to become carbon free, addressing both climate change and pollution effects. Electrification of transportation, growing penetration of renewables and city-scale policies could make these ambitions reality.
INNOVATIONS IN THE CONSUMER ECOSYSTEM
06
consumer innovations home generation
enabling innovation trends
transition drivers & barriers
home storage
internet of things
smart energy
services
AI & data-driven
optimisation
politics global agreements
national advantages
vested interests
peer to peer
energy
as-a-service
models
technology emerging tech
tech performance
legacy infrastructure
smart home
& devices
distributed markets
& blockchains
economics market development
tech price drop
business maturity
electric
vehicles
smart cities
people new social norms
emerging consumer classes
consumer inertia
HOME GENERATION A bright future for solar Thanks to higher efficiency, easier installation and falling prices, photovoltaic technology is becoming more and more accessible for residential use. Making it a main driver of energy democratisation.
Embedded solar Solar cells are not only becoming more efficient, but also more inconspicuous. Thanks to new breakthroughs – such as a flexible, transparent solar cell developed at MIT – solar cells may soon be all around us — on windows and walls, cell phones and more.
SOPHISTICATED SOLAR
Solar panels that blend in Since Tesla introduced its Solar Roof, more manufactures are developing solar panels that blend in with traditional roofs. Forward Labs claims that its roof, made of monocrystalline solar cells, is cheaper, more efficient and easier to install than Tesla’s design, while offering similar aesthetics.
INNOVATIONS / GENERATION
SEE-THROUGH PANELS
Transparent solar panels Cambridge-based startup Polysolar is developing see-through panels that can be fit into buildings, greenhouses and canopies. Traditional solar panels have to point directly at the sun, Polysolar’s panels, however, can be used on walls, rather than tilted-south facing surfaces.
INNOVATIONS / GENERATION
DRAW YOUR OWN ROOF
Transparent and multi-directional Draw My Roof is a new online service that allows potential solar customers to design their own home solar installation, based on their own roof, and get an accurate sense of system size, cost and projected savings. It uses Google maps to find any rooftop in the world and get you drawing.
INNOVATIONS / GENERATION
SMART BLINDS
Powerful windows in every apartment A startup called SolarGaps has created smart solar panel blinds that automatically track the sun throughout the day, adjusting their position to optimal angles. They integrate with Google Home, Amazon Echo, Nest Thermostat and more to be controlled by voice, temperature and via a smartphone app.
INNOVATIONS / GENERATION
HOME STORAGE The future is battery-powered Batteries are key enablers of a distributed energy cloud. With battery storage now entering the residential domain, people can bank their solar power and use it any time of day. This makes home generation a lot more efficient and attractive.
Battery boom Giant battery factories are sprouting up around the world, with global competitors eager to supply the growing market. Tesla is building a gigafactory in the Nevada desert, but it is actually China that will soon swamp the battery market.
TESLA IS GETTING NEW RIVALS
Home batteries hit the market In 2017, several brands introduced batteries for the residential market. Tesla has released its Powerwall 2 in Australia, a key early market for battery storage uptake. Two of its main competitors are LG Chem and Sonnen, a German manufacturer. Batteries by Mercedes-Benz, Nissan and more consumer brands will also become available this year.
INNOVATIONS / STORAGE
PLUG N PLAY BATTERIES
Instant storage for everyone While most batteries have to be professionally hardwired into the household circuity, the Orison can just be plugged into a standard wall socket. It stores 2 kilowatt-hours and also functions as a LED lamp, wireless phone charger and bluetooth speaker.
INNOVATIONS / STORAGE
SMART SERVICES The new customer interface When energy consumption turns from passive to active, people need new services and interfaces to manage their energy use. Smart services are popping up that help people control their ecosystem and connect with the energy cloud.
Utilities versus startups Utilities don’t have an impressive track record in customer experience innovation. For years, they’ve basically sent people an electricity bill. Today, however, disruption is looming. Techdriven newcomers aim to reinvent energy services, and utilities are trying to catch up before losing consumer relevance.
AUTOMATED ENERGY TRADING
Let AI handle your energy business Drift is a digital utility startup that connects independent power producers with consumers and aims to cut out unnecessary middlemen and outdated software. Using machine learning, high-frequency trading and a blockchain digital ledger for handling power trades, it claims to cut costs to the consumer by 10%-20%.
INNOVATIONS / SERVICES
ENERGY PLANS FOR HOME GENERATORS
Flat-fee subscriptions for micro-generators In Australia, where energy prices are soaring and sunshine comes in abundance, companies are trying to win the home generation market. German battery manufacturer Sonnen is now offering flat-fee subscriptions from 20 euros a month, which provide all the back-up power people need, while allowing households to connect into a network of Sonnen customers and trade their surplus power.
INNOVATIONS / SERVICES
PAY-AS-YOU-GO ELECTRICITY SERVICES
New energy services powering Africa M-Kopa and Off-Grid Electric are companies on a mission to electrify African countries such as Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, by leapfrogging the electricity grid altogether. They offer solar-powered home kits to replace kerosene lamps and power small electronics. Customers lease the equipment by paying a small daily fee through Africa’s popular mobile payment systems.
INNOVATIONS / SERVICES
P2P ENERGY Distributed energy markets In the energy cloud, anyone can be both an energy producer and consumer. Utilities, neighbours and offices all enter the same market, creating a new dynamic.
Blockchain Blockchain technology has the potential to spur the development of decentralised energy markets. Shell, Statoil, Tepco, Centrica and a half-dozen other energy companies have already joined an alliance devoted to bringing blockchain to the grid. And around the world, blockchain energy pilots are currently being launched.
ENERGY STRAIGHT FROM THE SOURCE Pick your own producer Dutch utility Vandebron has developed an online peer-to-peer energy marketplace, on which anyone who generates renewable energy can sell their yield directly to consumers. On the website, consumers choose who they want to receive their power from and for how long. By cutting out the utility company, producers make more and consumers pay less.
INNOVATIONS / P2P ENERGY
MICROGRIDS BUILT ON BLOCKCHAIN
Community energy experiments Around the world, utilities, tech startups and local communities have started to experiment with blockchain-based energy markets. In Brooklyn, tech start-up LO3 Energy launched a pilot microgrid. Other startups such as Grid Singularity, Electron and Conjoule are developing and beta-testing similar peer-topeer trading platforms built on blockchain.
INNOVATIONS / P2P ENERGY
COINS REWARDING SOLAR GENERATION A reward programme for solar generation Cryptocurrencies are usually generated by ’miners’, who are rewarded for providing processing to the network. SolarCoin is an ‘altcoin' that rewards something else: one megawatt hour of energy generated by solar panels can be redeemed for one SolarCoin. These can in turn be traded on crypto-markets for other currencies like bitcoin or US dollars. It’s essentially a global solar rewards programme.
INNOVATIONS / P2P ENERGY
SMART HOME Beyond the hype After years of hype, home control and automation products are gaining speed. With devices getting less expensive and platforms less complex, the smart home is starting to live up to its promise.
Your home has a voice now Amazon, Google and Apple are all trying to get their digital assistants into people’s homes and become the operating system of the internet of things. Many smart devices are now compatible with either of these platforms, offering an easier entry point into smart home technology for everybody.
OPEN-MINDED THERMOSTATS
A thermostat that plays nicely with Alexa The Ecobee4 smart thermostat has Alexa already built into it and also integrates with Apple Homekit and other platforms, making it the ideal energy heart of a seamless smart home SENSexperience. + ALEXA
INNOVATIONS / SMART HOME
EASY ENERGY SAVING
Ask Alexa how much you’re using Sense is an easy-to-install home energy monitor that learns to recognise the energy behaviour of every single appliance in your home. It will know when you forget to turn something off or waste unnecessary power. It also connects with Alexa, so you can just ask SENS + ALEXA how much energy you’ve been using today.
INNOVATIONS / SMART HOME
MUSICAL LIGHT BULBS
Plug ’n play smartness The Astro Twist light bulb shows what simplicity and creativity can do for smart devices. This light bulb doubles as a wireless audio speaker, syncing with Airplay and delivering proper sound quality. As an LED light it’s smart too, adapting its colour to the time of day. The product requires no hub or set-up and works instantly.
INNOVATIONS / SMART HOME
ELECTRIC VEHICLES The shift to EVs EVs are a central part of the global effort to develop a low-carbon economy. Global uptake is still low. 60% of Americans aren't even aware that electric cars are available. But with dropping battery prices and more nations and brands, such as India and Volvo, placing their bets on an electric future, things may soon speed up.
Automated vehicles Simultaneously, advancements in self-driving cars are speeding up. This will open up even more opportunities to create energy-efficient and safe transportation. Ride sharing will skyrocket and car-ownership will plummet. This will drastically change urban transportation.
Elon Musk and China: two EV superpowers
SMALL, CHEAP AND MADE FOR CHINA
Small and affordable EVs Chinese start-up CHJ Automotive has announced it will launch an electric car to rival Tesla’s on the Chinese market. The "ultra-compact" vehicle will feature changeable batteries, which eliminates refueling time. The car, which is priced at $7,800, is due out in early 2018.
INNOVATIONS / EV
THE ELECTRIC COOL
The rise of e-bikes First generation electric bicycles, scooters and motorbikes were often met with frowns. But now that more attractive options are becoming available, social acceptance is gaining momentum. In the Netherlands, half of the bicycles sold are electric, up from 28% last year. In China, there are over 200 million ebikes; that’s one in seven people. This is now causing safety problems in big cities.
INNOVATIONS / EV
SMART WITH NO STEERING
WHEEL Self driving cars on their way From tech giants to startups, companies wordwide are in a race towards autonomous driving. Multiple companies have announced the deployment of self-driving cars by 2021. Daimler’s latest Smart vision EQ fortwo concept car doesn’t even feature a steering wheel anymore. The car communicates with people thought LED panels, to become city dwellers’ new robo-companion.
INNOVATIONS / EV
RIDE & CHARGE
When roads will charge your car In France and Israel test tracks have been built on which EVs are charged while they drive, thanks to inductive charging technology. When cars don’t have to stop to charge, automated ride-sharing vehicles can go on forever, batteries can be much smaller, thus lighter, and electric driving would become much more convenient.
INNOVATIONS / EV
GLOBAL MARKET SNAPSHOTS
07
EUROPE
A CLEAN TECH PIONEER LOSING ITS EDGE How Europe paved the way Europe has long been a leading innovator in clean energy technologies. The EU has had some of the most aggressive carbon policies and regulations in place, along with targets for energy efficiency and renewables. From Denmark’s community-owned projects to Germany’s feed-in tariffs; many pioneering ideas were first launched in Europe.
Declining investments In recent years, Europe has been struggling to hold its lead, while other continents have been rapidly catching up. A lackluster economy has caused European clean tech investments to drop by more than half since 2011. The EU is, however, still on track to meet its 2020 goal of using 20% of energy from renewable. For 2030 it wants to raise its ambitions to 40%.
DANKE SCHÖN DEUTSCHLAND!
With their policy programme known as the ‘Energiewende’, Germany pioneered generous subsidies nearly 20 years ago that helped drive renewables up from 9 per cent of Germany’s electricity mix in 2004 to 35 percent in the first half of 2017. Without Germany’s massive investments, the global transition would have never kicked off the way it did.
CLIMATE CHANGE: A SWEDISH DISCOVERY This man understood more about climate change 120 years ago than the current head of America’s Environmental Protection Agency. In 1896, Swedish researcher Svante Arrhenius was the first person to understand and predict how much temperature would change due to carbon dioxide increase, and that humans were causing this. Using measurements of the energy incoming from the moon – with no computer at hand – he predicted global temperatures would rise approximately 5–6C in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
KEY MARKETS Germany Germany is considered the world's first major renewable energy economy. In 2016, renewables accounted for a third of the nations energy consumption. Clean energy investments totalled almost 4 billion euros, which ranks Germany fifth in the world. Germany has around 1.7 million solar power systems, almost all owned by citizens. An overview of current state of the ‘Energiewende’ can be found over here. United Kingdom Renewables are powering a quarter of the UK’s energy needs. Recently, the government announced plans for a smarter grid and £246m in funding for battery research. It has the fourth biggest clean tech industry in the world, with 11.5 billion euros worth of investments in 2016.
Nordics The Nordic countries are frontrunners in clean energy innovation. In the Global Cleantech Innovation Index, Denmark, Finland and Sweden are ranked 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Around 63% of energy generation in the Nordics comes from renewable sources. Sweden wants to run entirely on renewables in 2040, Denmark in 2050. France France is set for a renewables boom under newly elected president Macron. Around 75 percent of France’s electricity is provided by nuclear power stations, but a law has been passed to reduce the nuclear proportion to 50 per cent by 2025. The government aims to double wind and solar capacity and phase out coal power by 2022.
KEY PLAYERS Siemens The largest engineering company in the EU, with a renewable energy branche that builds wind turbines for all types of onshore and offshore applications, as well as solar and hydro power systems.
Sonnen German producer of battery products with an outspoken mission to take utilities out of business. It sells its products and services to home and business owners worldwide.
Vestas Wind Systems This Danish organisation Overtook General Electric to become the biggest U.S. installer of new wind power last year. The company is now looking to make investments in energy storage.
DONG Energy Danish utility that has rapidly and successfully shifted to renewable energy generation. It’s now the world’s largest offshore wind farm company and invests heavily in clean tech innovation.
ABB A Swedish-Swiss company and the world’s largest builder of electricity grids. Active in many sectors, but its core business is power, electrification and automation technologies.
Actility French industry leader in the deployment of IoT network technology and smart energy solutions. Helping utilities and business to manage and optimise efficient energy use.
Mobisol German company that has equipped more than 40,000 rural homes and businesses with solar systems in Tanzania and Rwanda. One of Africa’s fastest growing providers of off-grid systems.
Philips Lightning Dutch pioneer specialized in energy-efficient lightning, such as LED technologies, smart light bulbs and smart city applications.
ASIA
THE NEW HOME OF ENERGY INNOVATION Asian countries are taking the lead While the US takes a back seat, Asian countries are poised to become the new leaders in energy innovation. Looking for both competitive advantage and solutions to local energy and pollution problems, Asian governments have plannend huge investments in clean tech industries, from renewables to batteries and electric vehicles.
Biggest innovators and polluters While advancements in countries like China and India are promising, they are still the word’s biggest polluters. It’s a conflicting situation: China spends a lot on renewable incentives, but even more on fossil fuel subsidies. Pollution in India is getting even worse than China. This does however increase the urgency for clean innovation.
NI HAU CHINA! China wants to dominate clean energy technologies and has a real first-mover and scale advantage. China now owns the largest windturbine and battery manufacturer, the largest utility and five of the world’s six largest solar-cell factories. It plans to invest another $360 billion in renewable energy by 2020, creating millions of jobs.
BYE BYE TRUMP! Now that the US wants to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, China is eager to fill the void and position itself as a global leader. China seized the opportunity to forge a new alliance with Europe to lead the global energy transition.
“Chinese leaders want to improve the quality of life in cities by reducing air pollution; win large shares of promising export markets for green technologies; and increase China’s soft power in international relations. Taking aggressive action to cut carbon emissions helps China in all three areas.” - Matthew Kahn, Professor of Economics, University of Southern California
Chinese solar farm shaped like a panda
“COAL IS OVER. EVERY YEAR, IT WILL BE GRADUALLY REDUCED, CITY BY CITY.” - Li Junfeng, energy official
NAMASTE INDIA! Prime minister Modi has turned largely towards renewable energy to fix India’s chronic power shortages and reduce dependence on coal. He calls solar energy the “ultimate solution” to India’s energy crisis.
IN THE INDIAN TRADITION, THE SUN IS THE SOURCE OF ALL FORMS OF ENERGY
KEY MARKETS China China is the world’s biggest clean energy market, In 2016, clean energy investments totalled $87.8,
down 26 percent from an all-time high of $119.1 billion in 2015. China plans to boost investments, spending $360 billion by 2020.
Renewable energy accounted for about 70 percent of China’s new power capacity addition in the first half of 2017. In 2016, 507,000 electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids were sold in China, a 53% increase from 2015.
Japan Japan wants to rely less on nuclear energy since the Fukushima disaster. It has almost doubled its solar capacity over the last two years, making it the largest solar producer after China. Clean energy investments were $22.6 billion, which was a drop of 43 percent of over 2015. Just like China, Japan has had some the world’s most generous feed-in tariff policies, which it is now cutting back on.
India India has overtaken the US, to take the second spot on a list of the world’s most attractive renewable energy markets. India’s installed capacity for solar energy has tripled in the last three years to its current level of 12GW. It expects to run on 40% renewables by 2027.
Another grand ambition: India wants to be a 100% electric vehicle nation by 2030, in an attempt to clean up the air of its cities.
KEY PLAYERS Toyota Top patent holder in clean tech, with 800 patents under its belt, mainly in fuel cell technology. After pioneering in plug-in hybrid, Toyota is finally getting serious about electric vehicles.
Goldwind Science & Technology The world’s largest wind power turbine maker, which commissions more than two-and-a-half times the amount of capacity as the next largest Chinese manufacturer, Guodian
BYD The world’s biggest electric vehicle maker thanks to its market-leading position in China. Next to passenger cars, it produces electric trucks and busses.
Panasonic One of the world’s biggest producers of batteries and solar-cells, providing the technology for brands like Tesla. The company is going to build a carbonfree smart city from scratch.
Tianqi Lithium China’s biggest lithium battery manufacturer, which is growing fast. Its stock prices surged up 90% during this year.
Jinko Solar China’s largest producer of solar panels and developer of solar projects. Jinko Solar has over 15,000 employees and five production sites.
AMERICAS
A NEW ERA IN ENERGY POLITICS Clean energy cooling down During the last decade, the US has been the number one driving force of clean energy innovation. Recently, however, clean tech investments have somewhat cooled down. Ernst & Young, which had consistently ranked the U.S. as the leading market for renewable energy investment, downgraded the country to third place this year, behind China and India.
Then came Trump The Obama administration pushed a clean energy agenda, although hindered by legal challenges. With the election of Trump, energy politics has taken a sharp turn. His ambitions are clear: reviving the US oil and coal sectors, to restore jobs and create ‘a golden era of American energy’. Just like Obama’s agenda, it will have to overcome significant opposition.
HOW TRUMP MAY JUST BE IGNORED States and cities versus federal government About 30 states have adopted mandates for utilities to increase their use of renewable energy, which will not change with Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement or his effort to nullify the Clean Power Plan. Many American cities remain committed to emission reduction. Ironically, in several ‘red states’, renewable energy is thriving. Trumps plan’s may interfere with their economic priorities and meet resistance.
“I DON’T GIVE A **** IF WE AGREE ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE” – Arnold Schwarzenegger, former governor of California
California’s push for clean energy California has recently passed a bill to commit to 60% renewables in 2030 and 100% in 2045. Contrary to Trump’s reasoning, California sees the energy transition as an opportunity to boost the economy and job market. If California were its own country, its economy would be the world’s sixth largest, bigger than both India and France. Its progress is therefore of great significance and influence.
OIL STATE TURNING
GREEN In Texas renewables are booming Being one of the most windy and sunny states in the US, Texas is perfectly suited for renewable energy generation. The rise of wind and solar has driven down electricity costs to the point where gas-fired plants are hardly profitable anymore. Texas is now looking to export more of its clean energy, which could further boost its new energy economy.
LATIN AMERICA RUNS ON WATER Latin America’s reliance on renewables The region generates an impressive amount of clean energy. For almost seven months last year, Costa Rica ran entirely on renewable power. Uruguay has come close to that, too. In 2014, the latest year for which comparable data exist, Latin America as a whole produced 53% of its electricity from renewable sources, compared with a world average of 22%. Most of this is generated by hydropower.
Controversial hydropower Hydropower is the main power source in Latin America. Yet big dams are increasingly controversial: in recent years, Brazil and Chile have blocked hydro-electric projects in environmentally sensitive areas. Alternative energy sources, such as wind, solar and geothermal are on the rise, but still only account for around 2% of Latin America’s output, compared with a world average of 6%.
KEY MARKETS US In 2016, renewable energy accounted for 12.2% of total energy consumption in the US. Hydropower is the country’s biggest renewable source, followed by wind. The US still ranks among the world's top countries in clean tech investments ($58.6 billion last year), patents, and electric vehicle adoption. But in recent years, it has been outpaced by China and India. In coming years, Trump’s energy politics may restrain the US in catching up.
Canada Now that the US is taking a step back, Canada vows to step up as a clean energy leader. The government has touted the clean tech sector as a key engine for Canada's future economic prosperity. It is currently providing additional funding for clean-energy startups and implementing policies – including carbon taxes. Two-thirds of Canada's electricity supply now comes from renewables, most of which is hydropower.
Brazil Renewables account for more than 85% of the domestically produced electricity in Brazil, the lion’s share of which is generated by its big dams. Although Brazil has one of the highest solar incidence in the world, less than 0.01% of energy is generated by solar. Brazil’s clean tech industry is ahead of other Latin American countries. It has filed the largest number of patents and is a global leader in biofuels.
Chile Chile is one of the fastest-growing green economies. In the country, extreme weather events have made hydropower plants less reliable. For this reason, wind, solar and geothermal have started to take off, over the past five years. The Chilean government says the country is on track to rely on clean sources for 90 percent by 2050, up from the current 45 percent.
KEY PLAYERS Tesla American developer of electric vehicles, energy storage and solar panels. Definitely the most inspiring and buzz-generating clean tech company in the world.
GE Renewable Energy The renewable branche of General Electric, which focuses on wind, hydro, and solar power generation. Second largest producer of wind turbines in the world.
First Solar American manufacturer of solar panels and utilityscale photovoltaic power plants. Uses an alternative semiconductor to produce its CdTe-panels, which compete with conventional solar technologies.
Enbala Power Networks Canadian smart grid innovator that aims to keep electric grids in a constant state of reliable balance by harnessing distributed energy resources like solar, wind and conventional hydroelectricity.
Alphabet Google's parent company is running a list of projects that could have large impact on the energy transition, from autonomous vehicle technology, AIdriven smart grids, to energy storage solutions.
AFRICA
UNLOCKING AFRICA’S ENERGY POTENTIAL Africa’s growing need for electricity Africa has the lowest per capita electricity consumption in the world. Especially in rural areas, access to electricity is a serious challenge. By 2030, Africa’s total demand is expected to exceed 1,000 TWh by 2030, which is triple what it was in 2010. Renewables offer a largely untapped potential to meet Africa's energy demands.
Sun and wind in abundance In East and Southern Africa, two thirds of countries have enough wind and solar potential to meet the 2030 electricity demand.
Renewable electricity deployment is gaining momentum in Africa, as evidenced by 15 African participant countries in the Climate Vulnerable Forum pledging in 2016 to move to 100% renewables “as rapidly as possible”.
LET’S SKIP THAT WHOLE COAL THING How Africa could leapfrog fossil fuels The energy transition provides Africa with an opportunity to leapfrog fossil fuels altogether and move towards a clean, efficient system based on 21st century technology, the same way Africans skipped ahead to mobile phones over fixed telephony. Solar panels will enable many rural consumers to bypass the electric grid and meet their own energy needs.
All about the money In a continent where the gap between electricity demand and supply is so large and financing difficult, people want to get as many kWhs for every penny as possible. Clean energy is still held back by the perception that it is relatively expensive. But in handful of African countries, falling costs of wind and solar is now fueling a growth in renewable energy.
KEY MARKETS South-Africa South Africa’s renewables program (REIPPPP) has resulted in 79 projects being commissioned since 2011 and has been lauded as an international success. It has become Africa’s largest producer of wind energy. Still, renewables were responsible for only 3% of power generated in 2016. This year, several large-scale solar plants went live. Recently, progress has been hindered, as power utility Eskom refuses to sign agreements with renewable energy developers.
Morocco Compared to sub-Saharan African countries, Morocco has a high electrification rate, and since the country has no fossil fuel reserves, investments in renewables are a way to becoming self-sufficient. In 2015, King Mohammed VI committed the country to increasing its share of renewable electricity generation to 42% by 2020 and 52% by 2030. Particularly impressive are Morocco’s giant ‘Noor’ solar farms, located in the desert.
Kenya Kenya is lucky to have a large supply of reliable clean energy: geothermal and hydro account for two-thirds of the nation’s energy consumption. Power demand is sharply on the rise: 1.3 million households were added to its electricity grid in 2016. Kenya has seen a unique proliferation of different approaches to microgrids which arguably has caused the sector to evolve more rapidly than anywhere else in the world
Ethiopia Ethiopia’s renewable energy sector has enjoyed a decade of strong growth. The government has been investing in hydropower megaprojects and is now committed to making Ethiopia the wind power capital of the world, by increasing output by more than 1,000 percent within four years. Ethiopia still has big challenge ahead in powering the country. Just 26.6 percent of the population have access to electricity.
KEY PLAYERS M-Kopa M-Kopa offers a home solar kit on a pay-as-you-go contract. After an initial deposit, users pay a small daily fee though sms. Started by the founders of MPesa, Kenya’s revolutionary mobile money system.
Mainstream Renewable Power Dublin-based developer of wind and solar projects worldwide. Led a consortium that won a major South African solar deal. Also involved in projects in Ghana.
Mobisol German company that has equipped more than 40,000 rural homes and businesses with solar systems in Tanzania and Rwanda. One of Africa’s fastest growing providers of off-grid systems.
Off Grid Electric Tanzanian-based solar company that offers microsolar leasing solutions, similar to M-Kopa. Replacing kerosene lamps with a small solar kit that can power lights and small electronics.
Freedom Won South-African developer of electric vehicle technology and wall-mounted battery systems. Its FreedomCOR battery has recently been released in South-Africa as a Tesla Powerwall alternative.
AUSTRALIA
TRANSITION IN FULL EFFECT Australian transition picking up steam again Australia’s energy transition lost some of its momentum under Tony Abbots’ conservative energy policy, but current prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has started an effort to revive it. The Australian people are largely in favour of this transition: 69% agree that renewables should become Australia’s primary source of power.
Sufficient capacity In 2016, renewable sources produced enough electricity for 70% of Australian homes. By the end of 2017, this will be around 90%. Renewables currently make up 18.8% of the power supply, which is mostly hydro-electricity (40%), followed by wind (31%) and rooftop solar (18%). A quarter of Australian households (1.7 million) has solar panels installed.
LIVING DOWN UNDER AND OFF THE GRID Battling grid problems Australia’s electricity grid, which spans over 5,000 kilometers, has in recent years been affected by large power outages. This was often caused by extreme weather events, but renewable power sources have also taken blame. Energy prices soared as a result, and Australians are keen to get their energy issues solved.
Going off-the-grid Becoming independent from the grid is a solution many Australians turn to. Uptake of solar panels per capita is higher than anywhere in the world. Clean tech companies, like Tesla and Sonnen, see Australia as an important test market for their products. Tesla also wants to build the world’s largest gridscale battery in South Australia.
KEY PLAYERS Carnegie Clean Energy Developer of utility scale solar, battery, wave and hybrid energy projects. Has developed a low-impact energy generation device which harnesses the immense potential stored in the Earth’s ocean.
Powershop A renewable energy provider, which lets customers choose from customisable deals, allowing them to plan power spending in advance, instead of being faced with unexpected power bills.
GreenSync Melbourne-based start-up rolling out a digital trading platform for distributed energy resources, where energy capacity can be transacted between businesses, households, communities and utilities.
Nano-Nouvelle Battery technology developer looking to push the boundaries of lithium-ion. Their ‘Tin Nanode’ technology could give li-ion batteries 50% longer lifetime without increasing their size.
Greatcell Solar Formerly knows as Dyesol, this company develops advanced photovoltaic cells. Its highly efficient ‘perovskite’ solar cells are still in developmental phase and have yet to be commercialised.
Infigen Energy Australia’s biggest wind power producer. operating a portfolio of 557 MW. In addition to developing new wind projects, the company is looking to transform into a more diversified energy market player.
