ANSWER 4
— How Reliable is the World Population Forecast? Short answer — Very reliable www.gapminder.org/answers www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
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World Population
Billion people
10 8 6
Let’s look at the track record of the UN population experts.
4 2 1950
2000
2050
2100
Sources: Nico Keilman "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95“; UN World Pop. Prosp. 2010 & 2012. www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
Version: 1
World Population
Billion people
10 8 6 4 2 1958 1950
They made the first long-term forecast back in 1958.
2000
2050
2100
Sources: Nico Keilman "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95“; UN World Pop. Prosp. 2010 & 2012. www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
Version: 1
World Population
Billion people
10 8 6
They said that by the year 2000 there would be a little more than 6 billion people.
4 2 1958 1950
2000
2050
2100
Sources: Nico Keilman "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95“; UN World Pop. Prosp. 2010 & 2012. www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
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World Population
Billion people
10 8 6
The common reaction was: “That’s impossible!”
4 2 1958 1950
2000
2050
2100
Sources: Nico Keilman "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95“; UN World Pop. Prosp. 2010 & 2012. www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
Version: 1
World Population
Billion people
10 8 In 1968, they made another forecast.
6 4 2 1950
1968 2000
2050
2100
Sources: Nico Keilman "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95“; UN World Pop. Prosp. 2010 & 2012. www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
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World Population
Billion people
10 8 And one more in 1978.
6 4
1978
2 1950
2000
2050
2100
Sources: Nico Keilman "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95“; UN World Pop. Prosp. 2010 & 2012. www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
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World Population
Billion people
10 8 6
Now we know the number. Already the very first forecast back in 1958 was quite good.
4 2 1950
2000
2050
2100
Sources: Nico Keilman "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95“; UN World Pop. Prosp. 2010 & 2012. www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
Version: 1
World Population
Billion people
10 In 2010, UN experts made this forecast.
8
2010
6 4 2 1950
2000
2050
2100
Sources: Nico Keilman "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95“; UN World Pop. Prosp. 2010 & 2012. www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
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World Population
Billion people
10 8
2012
6
And in 2012, they made another forecast – 90 years into the future.
4 2 1950
2000
2050
2100
Sources: Nico Keilman "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95“; UN World Pop. Prosp. 2010 & 2012. www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
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World Population
Billion people
10 Both forecasts predict that population growth will slow 2012 down. The difference is how soon it will slow down and at what number it will eventually level off.
8 6 4 2 1950
2000
2050
2100
Sources: Nico Keilman "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95“; UN World Pop. Prosp. 2010 & 2012. www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
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World Population
Billion people
11
10 The UN population experts have a good track record. So the number will probably be somewhere around 11 billion people.
8 6 4 2 1950
2000
2050
2100
Sources: Nico Keilman "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95“; UN World Pop. Prosp. 2010 & 2012. www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
Version: 1
RELATED QUESTIONS How did Babies per Woman change in the world? Short answer — It dropped Throughout history, women on average have given birth to more than 5 babies. But in the 1960’s the number suddenly started dropping. Today it's down to less than three. Most likely it will continue to drop down to two or even below.
How did the world population change? Short answer — First slowly. Then fast. In this short video Professor Hans Rosling shows how the size of the world population has changed over time. From the beginning of agriculture to the industrial revolution the population growth was very slow. Then the population started to grow rapidly because fewer died young. Today, most women have fewer children and therefore the rapid growth will soon be slowing down. World population will most likely stabilise around 11 billion towards the end of the century.
How can the world population forecasts be so good? Short answer — Births & deaths can be predicted The UN population forecasts can be very accurate. This is because the future population is determined by factors that are quite predictable, namely births and deaths. We know that people grow older, and the approximate death rates of different age groups. The number of adults and old people are therefore relatively easy to predict. It is harder to predict how many children there will be, but knowing the number of adults in reproductive age makes it possible to estimate how many babies will be born. www.gapminder.org/teach
Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
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The Gapminder Foundation is a Swedish not-for-profit organization, independent from all political, commercial and religious affiliations. Gapminder’s mission is to fight devastating ignorance with a fact-based worldview that everyone can understand. Gapminder’s chairman Hans Rosling is a professor of International Health at the Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden. For more information visit: www.gapminder.org
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Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview
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