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10 9
Average number of jobs held
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
age
9 = 0$ ' , *( &
( - # G M H # I), 2' 3 4 .""# - M M G ,
G ("# S # G - * 5 = *D :"T , *( : # + # 9 , . * - 9 ? * - 9 C
" # $ % D + ' ' / A / ' 6' / ' , $ ' -
."
- := 5 ' #K / / !"T 5 4 " ) "?" , " ) ") "?? Æ "": ""? N ":8 "?? P# :"T : *(#
+# " + & *(# :"T / + # Q " *(# ? / +# !R "8 // / / # :.!T ???T# *(K !)?T C!T# + "8 *(#
"?" +# "" "8
. ") / ""8"C: # "":88C # " # !!) # M K # 2 M ¼ # / ' " & # "." #
H" ( I "(! ' "" .
5
unemployment rate (%)
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2 0
1 2 3 4 5 layoff cost (months of low−type worker earnings)
6
9 .= * , + & % ,
/
50 45
unemployment rate (%)
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
disutility parameter B
9 ?= * + *( &
..
-
12
unemployment rate (%)
10
8
6
4
2
0 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
variance of turbulence shock
9 C= * ' / ' - + & :"T / ' - / *( 3
0.5
2.8
0.45
2.6
0.4
2.4
0.35
2.2
0.3
2
0.25
1.8
0.2
1.6
0.15
1.4
0.1
1.2
0.05
1 20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
age
0 20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
age
& ,
- '
9 8= 6 # ' # *( & - / / .?
16
10 9
14 8 12
7 6
10
5 8
4 3
6
2 4 1 2 20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
0 20
30
40
50
60
age
age
!
- ,
70
80
90
9 := + # # *( & - / /
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
age
9 != 2 *( & - / / .C
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
0
60
25
30
35
40
age
45
50
55
60
age
1
- 1-
9 )= * - + *( & # #
0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
age
9 = * + - / / .8
100 Search intensity 0 Search intensity 1
90
Human capital loss (%)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Age
9 "= A ' / + & ; $ - ' ' ' - , ' ' ' , ; $ - # ' 3#
% 6 2
+ *( - & - - & - .) .! C8 C8) .): :!) C8" C88 .)) . C8 C8!
- != * %/ / # !"T ?"T#
.:
100 Search intensity 0 Search intensity 1
90
Human capital loss (%)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 100 30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Age
90
Human capital loss (%)
80 70 60 50 40 Search intensity 0 Search intensity 1
30 20 10 0 100 30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Age
90
Human capital loss (%)
80 70 60 50 Search intensity 0 Search intensity 1
40 30 20 10 0 30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Age
9 = A ' / *( & 5 '
' 9 $ ' "# .!
12
11
percentage
10
9
8
7
6 0
5
10
15 20 years since the shock
25
30
9 .= + ' / / *( & / "T - ' ' ?" C" 8" :" ' ?8
.8 8 8 '
.)
' ' '
' B 3 2 # ' ' '
*( ' :)J ! B ' ' ."")#
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# 0 0 ' : . 0
/5 0 ' ' 0
K # 0 / G "("8"C: # "":88C # . G "() # 0 " # !!) # - H" ( "#I - ' . 0 , / , / # .8 8"
.
)* 2' 3 9 4 ."" (' 5 + 9 C!=C!!JC ) 2 2 S % S B, )! *' 5
=
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*( + 0 D& C#=))J)8! U (/ B ."": 9 D' 2 % ( = 2 W ' 2 6 2 ) # C!=J.! F ' (' S S 6 " > S F = /
+' D D !" # $
A' S ( 9 = D- 5 F ' (' S S 6 ( ( : % 2= D- 5 F S 9 B 3 ( 2 F ' - : - + D 0 + .?#=?!J?!. ?"
F F ' 9E ."": - % /( + / = 0 + # =.C.J.:. 9E 3/4 ' SE F B .""! ' % = 9 + (' F # * ) =88.J8:8 > 5 7 Æ C - > + D *( % " + $ .#=.!J.!. > 5/A' S 2 5 ."". ' % !"=C!J) >' 9 .""! % U + = 2 % D ( 7 4 51 $ # !=:)!J!. 6 S /A' 9 % - ( ."") F 7/ A 0$ + = - F 7 2 6 7 + ). - D % S *( + # !.=!:J!.C 6 > F )8 D' % :=?" J?.!
$
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B ' > D ' ."") 7 A
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%&' % - S ( ) - + * F ":=8CJ88" XXX ."": F - + + * 1 D' % 6 % ( ' D !" # $ F 2 B 7, 0 = D- 5 XXX .""! * + * 7 ' 9 8C=.)"J.."C XXX .""! * + * ( /D 8C=.? J.! XXX ."") - = 4 D 88= )J.8 XXX ."") - W + *
!:=J.
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( 5 F - ! - * 0 +, % 5 = 2 *(2 *B D . / ' 0 , + F ( > F *B= *' 5 Æ 7 2 5 > 8 - ' ( + / *(= : / )! * S 6 *' F - 2 5 * 7 ;(/ $ - ( = - 7 % 5 " =.C.J .:8 ."" 2 D D' % #
?.
$ 1
< F .""C 0 D& D % * !=!C?J!:) < F - S U !=.?!J.:
#
,
< ( ! * % 7= + ' < 2 =88J!C 5 + ."". 5 F
$ # .=J8
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# 1
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