Cogn Process (2006) 7: 42–52 DOI 10.1007/s10339-005-0019-5

R ES E AR C H R E P OR T

Alessandro Londei Æ Alessandro D‘Ausilio Demis Basso Æ Marta Olivetti Belardinelli

A new method for detecting causality in fMRI data of cognitive processing

Received: 22 November 2004 / Revised: 15 June 2005 / Accepted: 19 July 2005 / Published online: 27 October 2005  Marta Olivetti Belardinelli and Springer-Verlag 2005

Abstract One of the most important achievements in understanding the brain is that the emergence of complex behavior is guided by the activity of brain networks. To fully apply this theoretical approach fully, a method is needed to extract both the location and time course of the activities from the currently employed techniques. The spatial resolution of fMRI received great attention, and various non-conventional methods of analysis have previously been proposed for the above-named purpose. Here, we briefly outline a new approach to data analysis, in order to extract both spatial and temporal activities from fMRI recordings, as well as the pattern of causality between areas. This paper presents a completely datadriven analysis method that applies both independent components analysis (ICA) and the Granger causality test (GCT), performed in two separate steps. First, ICA is used to extract the independent functional activities. Subsequently the GCT is applied to the independent component (IC) most correlated with the stimuli, to indicate its causal relation with other ICs. We therefore propose this method as a promising data-driven tool for the detection of cognitive causal relationships in neuroimaging data.

A. Londei (&) Æ A. D‘Ausilio Æ M. O. Belardinelli Department of Psychology 1, University of Rome ‘‘La Sapienza’’, Via dei Marsi, 78-00185 Rome, Italy Tel.: +39-06-49917609 Fax: +39-06-4462449 E-mail: [email protected] URL:http://w3.uniroma1.it/labcog/index.asp A. Londei (&) Æ A. D‘Ausilio Æ M. O. Belardinelli ECONA, Interuniversity Center for Research on Cognitive Processing in Natural and Artificial Systems, Rome, Italy D. Basso Laboratory of Clinical Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy D. Basso Department of Psychology, University of Pavia, Pisa, Italy

Introduction Two opposing theories of the higher functions of brain dominated the field of brain and behavioral sciences from its onset: localizationism versus holism. After 150 years of effort, the exponential growth of researches devoted to the study of brain functions has been widely acknowledged. Thanks to animal studies, human brain lesions, neural modeling as well as new and less invasive techniques (i.e., EEG, TMS, MEG, fMRI, PET and SPECT), a greater understanding has been achieved about the localization and the dynamics of higher cognitive functions. However, the extent to which these functions have a precise location or can be attributed to networks of interconnected areas is still debated. To solve this crucial issue, an integration between research and speculation has been proposed for all theoretical approaches. In these proposals, the functional role played by any component of the brain has been defined largely by its connections. Essentially, certain patterns of cortical projections are so common that they could be considered as general rules of cortical connectivity. These rules revolve around one apparently cardinal strategy that the cerebral cortex uses: functional segregation (Zeki 1988). Functional segregation demands that cells and areas with common functional properties be grouped together. This architectural constraint is built around two separate processes: the convergence and divergence of cortical connections. The cortical infrastructure supporting a single function may therefore involve many specialized areas, whose grouping is mediated by their functional integration. Functional specialization and integration are not exclusive, but complementary. Functional specialization is only meaningful in the context of functional integration and vice versa (Friston 2002). Studies of cortico-cortical connectivity, neural pathways and co-activation of areas aim to determine the neural circuits involved in information processing,

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within a given cognitive domain. The areas involved in processes such as primary perception and the generation of movements have been pointed out during several years of observations, but the location and dynamics of higher processes are still debated. Neuroimaging studies showed that many regions organized in networks are required to perform a particular task, and it has now been established or recognized that higher processes engage more cerebral areas at one time. For example, Owen and collaborators (Dagher et al. 1999; Owen et al. 1996) explored the relationships between memory and planning by proposing a network based on the dorsolateral prefrontal, lateral premotor and cingulate areas, interacting with sensory and motor cortices. Adolphs (2002) drew a map of brain structures involved in the recognition of emotions, including the occipitotemporal neocortex, amygdala, basal ganglia, orbitofrontal and right frontoparietal cortices. Doya (1999, 2000) suggested a 3-layered network model, centered on the interaction between the cerebellum, basal ganglia and prefrontal cortex, to account for motor learning. However, these dynamics are usually difficult to detect. The above-cited models are mainly based on neuroimaging studies and are therefore built on a central assumption that regions activated during a task are involved in that particular task. These analyses, however, can only support a hypothetical connectivity among those areas, and it is only through the use of indirect observations and complementary techniques that the model can be validated. Different methods have been proposed to study spatial and temporal properties of these networks. Given that fMRI has gained widespread approval in the scientific community, many research groups have attempted to counterbalance the lack of temporal definition for the technique. The analysis of the effective and functional connectivity has been proposed as a promising method for discovering the connection pattern between areas and their relative weights (Friston 2002). A disadvantage of this method is the amount of a priori knowledge that is required for modeling. The anatomical connections as well as the expected activations need to be specified by the model. Recently, a bottom-up analysis based on independent component analysis (ICA: McKeown et al. 1998) has been introduced as a useful tool for the elaboration of neuroimaging data. The method has been proposed as a complementary and powerful tool to help the widespread SPM approach based on a general linear model (Hu et al. 2005). The spatial ICA, however, is still a method that needs to be guided by an expert user, while the components extracted do not per se indicate a real activation or an artifact. The main aim of this article is to combine ICA with another fully data-driven approach, in order to extract valuable information about brain network connectivity, without employing any hypothesis-driven data analyses. The method we propose is based on the combined application of the Granger causality test (GCT) with the

ICA (Fig. 1), immediately following the preprocessing of the imaging data, in order to guide the selection of the best fitting components extracted by the ICA. Granger’s test has been already applied to fMRI raw data with the purpose of highlighting temporal connections among brain areas (Goebel et al. 2003). The application of the causality test was conducted by the arbitrary selection of well-defined Regions Of Interest (ROI). In the present work, the aim was to make the Granger analysis independent of a priori knowledge about functional areas, by determining functional relations among spatially independent components.

Independent component analysis The ICA method has been applied to BOLD-fMRI data to separate stimulated activity, without formulating hypotheses on its temporal and/or spatial structures (McKeown et al. 1998). ICA is a multivariate statistical technique that uses higher order statistics to separate observed signals into maximally independent signals. In the ICA model, the observed signals X are considered as a linear mixture of statistically independent signals: X ¼ AS;

ð1Þ

where S denotes the independent signals and A is called the mixing matrix. The aim of ICA is to estimate both the independent signals and the mixing matrix, i.e., to find the matrix W so that S=WX. In this context, it is assumed that there are as many sources as signals. The independent components (IC) are constrained to exhibit unit variance (in order to avoid the indeterminacy in both A and S), matrix A is defined up to a permutation and if more than one IC has Gaussian probability density, only an uncorrelated basis for this set of components can be obtained. Incidentally, this means if we assume that Gaussian noise is superimposed onto the signal, it will be uncorrelated and will appear in one or more of the least significant components. Several algorithms have been developed based on higher order moments (Comon 1994), neural network optimizations (Bell and Sejnowski 1995) and the maximization of non-Gaussianity (Hyva¨rinen 1999a; for a review see Hyva¨rinen 1999b). In particular, the fixedpoint algorithm (Hyva¨rinen 1999a) sequentially extracts the ICs from the least Gaussian to the most one. The non-Gaussianity of the component being extracted is measured by a contrast function. It compares the expected non-linear function of the data with the expectation of the same function on Gaussian data having the same variance: JG ðuÞ ¼ jEu fGðuÞg  Eu fGðmÞgjp :

ð2Þ

Here, JG is the contrast function, E the expectation operator, u a one-dimensional data variable, m a normally distributed random variable and p is usually taken as 1 or 2. Function G is practically any smooth

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Fig. 1 General chart synthetically showing the combined application of sICA and GCT to fMRI data. Spatial FastICA is applied to the N fMRI volumes (N=6 in this example) sampled for each repetition time (RT) seconds. The results of sICA consist of N volumes whose spatial activities are statistically independent. Moreover a specific time course is associated with each IC (ATE associated time evolution) showing the amount of activation of that

particular IC present at any time in the measured data. Since the primary activation in the cortex is strongly related to the experimental paradigm (usually perceptive or motor areas), the associated IC may be detected by comparing the reference model time course with the IC ATEs. Finally, the GCT is applied to the IC ATEs in order to detect causal relationships among the ICs

non-quadratic function. In our application of ICA, suitable results were obtained with G(u)=tanh u. The first application of ICA to fMRI data was sICA (spatial ICA). In this case raw data are considered to be a linear mixture of spatial activation maps, assumed to be statistically independent (since the amount of data is limited, this should be taken as ‘‘maximally independent’’), while their corresponding time course is unconstrained (McKeown et al. 1998). Another model is tICA (temporal ICA), in which data are considered to be a mixture of independent time courses of unconstrained spatial maps (Biswal and Ulmer 1999). Stone and col-

leagues (2000) pointed out that sICA (as well as tICA) may lead to solutions in which independence between spatial maps (time courses) is achieved at the expense of physically improbable time courses (spatial maps). To overcome this problem, Stone et al. proposed spatiotemporal ICA (stICA). They showed that stICA performs slightly better than sICA, and both stICA and sICA perform significantly better than tICA. Focusing on sICA, McKeown and Sejnowski (2000) have clearly pointed out the assumptions concerning the extraction of independent spatial maps: the maps are assumed to be constant in time (i.e., temporal changes in

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fMRI data are related to temporal changes in the relative contribution of individual maps); fMRI data are composed of the linear sum of spatially independent patterns of activity; noise is assumed to be distributed among one or more components. The hypothesis that the signals we aim to detect are non-Gaussian is straightforward (McKeown et al. 1998; Friston 1998; Makeig et al. 1998). In fact, relevant activation patterns are, in most cases, localized in space, i.e., significant activation values will only be present in a small fraction of the total number of voxels. Therefore this localization of the activation warrants the nonGaussianity of the sources, considered as signals defined in the spatial domain (i.e., when we take signals as images and subsequent images as different measurements). In particular, activation images should be strongly super-Gaussian. When the temporal domain is considered (i.e., when we consider the temporal evolution of the response of single voxels and the set of voxels as different measurements), locality is less significant. This argument is in agreement with the results of Stone on tICA (Stone et al. 2000). The hypothesis of the linear mixing of signals is based on the conjecture that the complexity of the fMRI response is due to several other ongoing brain activities, apart from the one we are detecting, as well as other ‘‘perturbations’’ of blood flow, such as oscillations of blood pressure and changes in cerebral blood volume. However, when other (proper) activations or artifacts (motion in particular) are present, we expect them to be localized, and most often, in areas that differ from the relevant ones. It is therefore possible to assume that signals are combined in a simple linear way, i.e., in principle, only one or few of the coefficients do not vanish at a given place and time. At the same time, global artifacts such as blood pressure should appear relatively uniformly over the whole brain, but not as strongly when compared to the hemodynamic response. On the other hand, we could think of the saturation of vessel flow as a cause of non-linearity in the superposition of causes. As previously argued, this should not, however, arise since these causes are not expected to simultaneously occur in the same areas or are not likely to be so strong as to saturate blood flow capacity. However, other higher level mechanisms could be implicated in the onset of nonlinear correlations so that the paradigm would no longer be adequate (Friston 1998).

knowledge about A should improve the prediction of B. More specifically, causality may be evaluated by comparing the variance of the residuals after an autoregressive (AR) application to the reference signal A, with the same variance being obtained when autoregression is evaluated on the past values of the signal A and the past values of the potentially causing signal B. The P-order linear autoregression of the two signals A and B can be expressed as: A½n ¼ B½n ¼

P P k¼1 P P

hA ½k   A½n  k  þ U ½n; ð3Þ hB ½k   B½n  k  þ V ½n;

k¼1

where hA, hB are the respective regressors and U[n], V[n] are the zero-mean Gaussian distributed residuals, whose variances are S A, S B, respectively. A regressive model that takes into account the contribution of both signals may be expressed by defining a vector X[n]:   A½n X½n ¼ ð4Þ B½n and the regressive relation: X½n ¼

P X

hX ½k   X½n  k  þ W½n:

ð5Þ

k¼1

The covariance of the residuals W[n] is given by:   R1 C : ð6Þ Y ¼ varðWÞ ¼ C R2

The Granger causality test

If a sensitive reduction of the variance S 1 with respect to S A (or S 2 with respect to S B) is observed, a causal relation between A and B may be inferred, i.e., B implies A (A implies B). Geweke (1982) introduced a further elaboration of Granger causality by describing three specific parameters: FA fi B, FB fi A, FAÆB. Each parameter is given by the logarithm of a particular variance ratio FA fi B (FB fi A), considering the ratio between the variance of the residuals of AR when A (B) is added to the past description of B (A) and the variance after an AR on B (A):   FA!B ¼ ln RRB2 ;   ð7Þ FB!A ¼ ln RRA1 ;   FAB ¼ ln Rk1YRk2 :

The formal concept of causality was expressed by Granger for econometric purposes (Granger 1969). It is based on the common sense notion that causes imply effects during the future evolution of events and, conversely, the future cannot affect the past or present. By applying such considerations to temporal signals, if a time series A causes a time series B, then in some way

Since the addition of a further temporal description to A cannot reduce the ability to predict the future of B, FA fi B and FB fi A are always positive, or equal to zero, if no causal relation is detected. Therefore FA fi B (FB fi A) represents the amount of causality given by A (B), when applied to the prediction of B (A). FAÆB describes the total linear dependence between A and B in

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terms of undirected instantaneous influence. Linear regression is calculated by applying the general linear method (GLM) that forces residuals to have identical distributions. Therefore, conventional large-sample distribution theory may be used to test the null hypothesis that a given parameter F is equal to zero. If FA fi B is equal to zero, the numerical evaluation of this parameter by n samples follows a Chi-squared distribution, with k degrees of freedom, where k is the order of the autoregressive technique: nFA fi B fi v2(k).

Empirical demonstration Method The validation of the combined techniques given by ICA and GCT was conducted on a set of artificial data, simulating an fMRI experimental measurement. We considered a 10·10 grid of voxels, whose time courses were built considering both the hemodynamic evolution and the casual and deterministic disturbances. In this slice, eight functional areas were selected: four of them were related to an arbitrary temporal task (functional areas, white zones in Fig. 2) while the other four were modulated by deterministic time courses (disturbance areas, gray zones in Fig. 2).

The task-related areas were hierarchically described by a temporal causal relationship. This feature was set up to control the final results of the method and to validate the temporal relationships that the technique is able to detect. In order to simulate a likely functional situation, area A was considered a primary area directly responding to the sequence of stimuli. Subsequently, the temporal evolution of voxels belonging to area A was described by the convolution between the stimuli evolution (boxcar) and the synthesized version of the hemodynamic response function (gamma function model). Areas B and C were causally determined by the primary area A and, finally, area D was given by a regressive application of areas B and C. The temporal evolution of the functional areas may be expressed by the following regressive equations 8: yB ðtÞ ¼ yA ðt  4Þ  0:3  yC ðt  2:5Þ; yC ðtÞ ¼ yA ðt  6:5Þ  0:3  yB ðt  1:5Þ; yD ðtÞ ¼ 0:1  yA ðt  9Þ þ 0:7  yB ðt  4Þ þ 0:6  yC ðt  5:5Þ:

ð8Þ

Each time course was numerically calculated (Dt=0.1 s) and a Gaussian noise was added (0-mean, variance given by 10% of functional maximum). The whole duration of the experiment was 100 s. The functional time evolution of areas A,B, C and D is shown in Fig. 3a. The areas not related with the functional task were described by trigonometric time courses with casual amplitude, frequency and phase, and the same amount of Gaussian noise was added (Fig. 3b). Finally, the background voxel’s time course was described only by a casual sequence of Gaussian noise. fMRI synthetic data were then extracted by the previous signals using an undersampling process, so that the final data were characterized by a repetition time RT=5 s, giving a sequence of 20 sampled slices in the whole experiment. Results and discussion

Fig. 2 Synthetic fMRI 10·10 voxels slice used for the validation of the method. Four functional areas (white areas—A, B, C, D) and four deterministic areas not involved with the task (gray areas) were selected. Area A is considered as the primary area directly activated by the stimuli and the other functional areas are causally related with A (see Eq. 8 in the text). Time course for each voxel consists of 20 samples (RT=5 s) and a temporal perturbation (Gaussian noise) was added to every time course

The application of the SPM-like hypothesis-driven method, based on the GLM, and the related statistical inferences gave the results shown in Fig. 4. The pattern evidenced that the functional areas detected were the functional areas A and B. The left picture (a) was obtained by setting the statistical threshold at P<0.01 and the right picture (b) was characterized by a threshold of P<0.05. It is noteworthy that the hypothesis-driven approach can only detect the time courses that correlate significantly with the reference evolution. In the present case, only yA(t) and yB(t) fulfill such a condition and therefore just a partial sketch of activations may be detected. A spatial ICA was conducted on the same dataset by the application of the FastICA algorithm, with the hyperbolic tangent as the non-linear function. A total of

47 Fig. 3 a Time courses of the causally related functional areas A, B, C, D (white areas in Fig. 2). b Time courses of the deterministic areas not related with the functional task (gray areas in Fig. 2)

Fig. 4 Analysis of synthetic data conducted by an SPM-like approach. The reference time course was given by the convolution of the stimuli sequence (boxcar) with the gamma model of the hemodynamic response function (hrf). a Statistical activation of

voxel with threshold P<0.01. b Statistical activation of voxel with threshold P<0.05. In both the pictures it is noteworthy that this approach may detect only the areas whose time course is sufficiently similar to the experimental paradigm (areas A and B)

20 spatial independent components (ICs) and 20 associated temporal evolutions (ATEs) was then obtained (Fig. 5). In order to identify the primary activation, each ATE was compared with the reference time course given by yA(t). The best correlation was found with the ATE associated to IC7 (correlation r=0.987), as shown in Fig. 6 [region C: ATE IC7, region A: yA (t)]. Then, by considering the IC7 as the primary activation of the functional evolution in the slice, the causal relationship between IC7 and the remaining ICs was performed by application of the GCT. The causal effect parameter FIC7 fi ICX of IC7 over the remaining ICs at 1, 2 and 3 delay steps is shown in Fig. 7. The dark bars represent the ICs, when FIC7 fi ICX is sufficiently significant with a statistical threshold P<0.0001. These results indicate the IC4 and 6 as the activations directly caused by IC7, and the IC3 as caused after a delay of 2 RT. A further confirmation of the

relationships between IC4-6 and IC7 may be observed by evaluating FICX fi IC4 and FICX fi IC6 (Fig. 8). The analysis of the causing sources of IC4 and IC6 still shows IC7 as the common driving functional area. Moreover, the temporal proximity of IC4 to the primary functional area, given by IC7, is well represented both in Figs. 7 and 8. In fact, since there is a causal effect of IC4 on IC6 (e.g., in Fig. 8b, the first dark bar on the left), IC4 has to be activated by primary area IC7 before IC6. This result is congruent with the delays set in Eq. 8, where IC7 drives IC4 and IC6, respectively, with a delay set at 4.5 and 6 s. Finally, the selection of IC3 as an activation coherent with the experimental stimuli can be further confirmed by analyzing the Granger parameters FIC4 fi ICX and FIC6 fi ICX (Fig. 9). The presence of IC3 among the ICs that fulfill the causal relationships with IC4 and IC6 allows the extrapolation of a network of causal connections among the activations.

48 Fig. 5 Twenty spatial independent components extracted by FastICA (nonlinear function: hyperbolic tangent). Among the ICs it is noteworthy to detect the shape of the functional and deterministic areas: IC7, IC4, IC3, IC6 as: A, B, C, D, respectively; IC1, IC2, IC5, IC10 as the four deterministic areas

Fig. 6 Time course of functional area A (filled square) and IC7-associated temporal evolution (plus), correlation r=0.987

Functional connectivity and causality are probably central issues in uncovering how big networks of areas interact and give rise to higher cognitive functions. To solve this issue, many data analysis approaches were presented in the past few years, such as CC (crosscorrelation analysis: Worsley et al. 1998), SEM (structural equation modeling), DCM (dynamic causal modeling: Penny et al. 2004). In many cases they were demonstrated as surely promising techniques in exploring both the effective and functional brain connectivity. Nonetheless, they still have one main draw-

back: they rely heavily on previous knowledge about areas and connections involved. In contrast the Granger test applied to the ICA components can extract those valuable information without any a priori assumption about the location of activity and the pattern of connection between those areas. Furthermore it could group brain activities in a series of significant casual relationships in the absence of a priori hypotheses about the sequence and flow of information between the areas involved in a particular task.

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Fig. 9 First-order Granger’s parameter FIC4/6 fi ICX for detecting the causal implications of IC4 and IC6. Both show a direct causal relation with IC3. Moreover, the connection between IC4 and IC6, already observed in Fig. 7, is shown. These results allow maintaining an indirect causal relationship between IC7 and IC3: IC7 causes IC3 activation by passing through intermediate areas IC4 and IC6

Fig. 7 Granger’s parameter FIC7 fi ICX calculated with regression order: a 1 delay step, b 2 delay steps and c 3 delay steps. Dark bars represent significant values of FIC7 fi ICX with statistical threshold P<0.0001. The pictures’ sequence shows a first-order causal relationship between IC7 (primary area) and IC4-6. Moreover, from second-order test and beyond a causal relationship between IC7 and IC3 arises

Fig. 8 Reverse causality relationship for a IC4 and b IC6 (FICX fi IC4/6). Dark bars represent significant values of FICX fi IC4/6 with statistical threshold P<0.0001. Both the pictures show that IC4 and IC6 are causally implicated by primary area IC7. Moreover, a causal relationship may be detected for IC4 that implies IC6, according to Eq. 8

In the present paper, the method proposed has been tested on a simulated dataset representing a pattern of activations. Analyses with SPM2 were able to evidence only the two regions out of four that were more correlated with the reference evolution. Conversely, the ICA method extracted all the ongoing activity, both relevant and irrelevant; subsequently, the GCT selected only the regions causally related to each other, among all the components that had been previously extracted (Fig. 10). The obtained results evidence that the hypothesisdriven method is less powerful in the detection of regions of activation than the integrated ICA–GCT method. Moreover, the latter method is able to detect whether time-dependent relationships exist, thus making the data analysis more sensitive to circuits. Our group is currently validating the ICA–GCT analysis, by also using real fMRI data. A first example of the application of this integrated method can be drawn from the public domain dataset available in the SPM Internet site (http://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/data/auditory.html). The paradigm used involved a passive wordlistening task, and the SPM approach used to analyze the data is fully described on the Internet site, as well as from the results obtained. Therefore, a direct comparison can be easily made between these findings and the results provided with the integrated ICA–GCT approach. The primary results seem to indicate that more cerebral regions than those detected by the SPM method are involved in the task. Moreover, these regions are causally interconnected by a series of significant regressions. The method proposed here is being currently applied to a previous experiment conducted in the laboratory (Londei et al. 2004). The behavioral paradigm was based on the passive listening of musical fragments,

50 Fig. 10 Final sketch of the causal relationships present in the synthetic data and detected by the combined application of ICA and GCT, according to relationships described by Eq. 8 (in the text). The dotted line represents a second-order significant relationship

characterized by the presence/absence of two musical features: tonality and salience (Olivetti Belardinelli 2004). The application of the ICA alone revealed activations in the prefrontal cortex and the limbic system, which seemed to be instantaneously correlated with the primary auditory cortices in the superior temporal lobe. On the other hand, the application of GCT revealed that such activations have a precise pattern of causal and temporal relations to the primary source of activity in the superior temporal gyrus. These results evidence a functional circuit involved in the discrimination of musical features. The ICA–GCT method is also currently being applied to other experimental paradigms, such as the perception of visual and auditory spatial stimuli, multimodal mental imagery and switching between strategies in the visuo-spatial planning process. This sequence of applications has been chosen to be representative of a scheduled and progressive evaluation of the method on different levels of task complexity, ranging from the lower toward the higher, in terms of the number of cerebral regions putatively involved.

Discussion This paper aims to describe and verify a method to retrieve causality from fMRI data. The proposed method is based on the combination of the ICA (McKeown et al. 1998) and the GCT (Granger 1969). The ICA algorithm is used to separate signal mixtures into a set of statistically independent signals. It is based on the fact that the linear mixture of any source

signal tends to be Gaussian and that source signals tend to be statistically independent of each other. It follows that if a signal can be decomposed into a set of statistically independent non-Gaussian signals, then these signals are likely to be considered as the source of that mixture. ICA has recently been integrated into the fMRI data analysis (Hu et al. 2005), due to its ability to extract activity in the absence of hypotheses on its temporal and/or spatial structures. The a priori definition of when a structure should be activated has been a long-standing weak point of the hypothesis-driven approaches. It has been demonstrated that the ICA can overcome this limit (Esposito et al. 2002). However, an expert user is still needed to distinguish between ICs representing real activations and ICs containing noise. Coupling the ICA with the GCT could represent a promising statistical heuristic to select only the ICs that show a significant relationship with the task. The GCT method measures the significance of past values of a variable A, when explaining a second variable B, while taking into account the effects of past values of the variable B itself. It has been widely used in financial sciences. The results obtained from the simulation clearly demonstrate the superiority of the ICA–GCT approach with respect to classical hypothesis-driven methods, specifically in the detection of the activities hidden in patterns and by adding a valuable causal description. The network of functional areas in the patterns was clearly identified as well as the time course in which the functional areas were active. Thus, the ICA–GCT method can be considered a promising tool suitable for

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the detection of the functional circuits of brain areas involved in cognitive processing. Functional neuroimaging literature describes many higher processes as circuits of regions, interacting by means of feedback and feed-forward connections, e.g., planning (Newman et al. 2003; Basso 2005), emotion recognition (Adolphs 2002) and language processing (Tettamanti et al. 2005). Even though converging results support the hypothesized circuits, these dynamics are usually difficult to prove. Classical neuroimaging methods cannot fully reflect the reality of these processes, since the widely used statistical tools are not able to evidence the causal relationships among the regions involved. In fact, these models are usually based on correlational analyses, i.e., the regions activated during a task are supposedly involved in that particular task. These analyses, however, can only support the hypothetical connectivity among the areas. Further anatomical data and several observations are needed to verify the existence of the circuits. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), on the other hand, offers a unique tool to detect functional connections between the brain areas on the scale of milliseconds. A wide range of well-established techniques, such as single pulse, paired pulse and repetitive stimulation, is promising in measuring instantaneous causal relations among cortical areas. Unfortunately TMS cannot be applied to ventral brain structures such as the basal ganglia or the orbitofrontal cortices. In addition, the intensity of the magnetic pulse decays exponentially with distance and reduces its effectiveness when stimulating sulcal areas for example (Hallett 2000). These structural problems limit the application of this technique as a complementary method to functional neuroimaging. Therefore, only a partial verification of the causal connectivity between the brain areas can be drawn from a common fMRI/PET paradigm, even when it is combined with parallel or simultaneous TMS studies. Even though the concept of causality greatly appeals to brain sciences it is not easy to define or detect with the present methods. The notion of networks of areas being involved in complex processes is widely accepted, but every time we consider a network, we need to model a pattern of temporal activations, and implicitly a complex pattern of causal relation as well. Thus determining the causal relations between brain areas can be as informative as the fine-grained temporal description of how information flows from one area to the other. This is even more true if we consider the data obtained from a technique like fMRI. In fact BOLD signal and electrochemical changes are on a completely different time scale, and achieving a temporal resolution under 2–3 s will not eventually add significant information. Conversely, our technique allows a better evaluation of the effective connectivity between areas, as well as a causal connectivity analysis, greatly augmenting the amount of information extracted from fMRI data.

To our knowledge, until now a data-driven tool has not been proposed to overcome these limits of the classical SPM-like methods. The integration of the GCT into the ICA allowed us to identify causally related regions of activation that were undetectable using a common hypothesis-driven analysis approach. Therefore, the application of the here-discussed method could be considered as a development of fMRI data analysis that reduces the error inherent in the hypothesis-driven paradigms.

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