2016 Climate Change Update For an overview of climate change science, please see What We Know: The Reality, Risks and Response to Climate Change, Chaired by Nobel Prize winning scientist Dr. Mario Molina, published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 18 March 2014, free download at: http://whatweknow.aaas.org/get-the-facts For a region-by-region analysis of climate change impacts see: National Climate Assessment, Climate Change Impacts in the U.S., published 6 May 2014 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Free download of a “Highlights” version or the full 840page report: http://www.globalchange.gov/ncadac. For the latest 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 data and information browse these key web sites, as well as the URLs listed later in this handout: Goddard Institute for Space Studies: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch/ NOAA’s National Climate Data Center: http:// www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ National Ice Center: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ National Snow and Ice Data Center: http://nsidc.org/ NOTE: NOAA/NCDC reported that 2015 was the warmest year ever reported in the 1880–2015 period for Earth’s lands, oceans and atmosphere. The first six months of 2016 have each broken the record for that month (NOAA/NCDC 2016).

A representative sample from the recent scientific literature and major studies, with footnotes: 1. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) level in parts per million (ppm) in Earth’s atmosphere: 1 May 2005 = 382 ppm May 2006 = 385 ppm May 2007 = 387 ppm May 2008 = 389 ppm May 2009 = 390 ppm May 2010 = 393 ppm. May 2011 = 394 ppm May 2012 = 397 ppm May 2013 = 400 ppm May 2014 = 402 ppm May 2015 = 404 ppm

10288). In the last 800,000 years CO2 was never higher than 300 ppm (data from Dome-C ice core). During May 2013, Earth’s atmosphere reached 400 ppm CO2, in April 2014 CO2 surpassed this record level a month ahead of the normal peak month hitting 402 ppm. May 2016 surpassed this at 408 ppm! Scientists regard a level of 450 ppm as a critical threshold—see item #25. [1. NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Earth Monitoring Division, measured at Mauna Loa Atmospheric Observatory and in Antarctica, “Trends in Atmospheric CO2”; for data see: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ and ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt.]

2. 2015 set the global record for land/atmosphere/ocean temperatures. Previously, 2014, and 2010 and 2005 tied for the record year for temperature, with 2007 and 2009 third warmest. Again, 2015 was warmest year in the instrumental record, surpassing 2005 and 2010. [2. GISS/ NASA, NOAA, NCDC reports http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201507.]

3. COP 21 (Conference of the Parties; UNFCCC) Paris Climate Conference, December 2015, reached a historic climate treaty, adopted by 195 countires, in the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate treaty. Mitigation: to keep temperatures below a 2 C° increase above preindustrial; to target a 1.5 C° increase; to undertake rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. See: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negoti ations/paris/index_en.htm 4. International Scientific Conference on Climate Change,10–12 March 2009 and the Copenhagen Climate Congress, 13–16 March 2009—2500+ scientists from 80+ countries determined: • A stronger consensus presented, “The worst-case IPCC (2007) projections, or even worse, are being realized.” • “Emissions are soaring, projections of sea-level rise are higher than expected, and climate impacts around the world are appearing with increasing frequency.” • “The acceleration of Greenland’s ice losses and Antarctica’s ice losses of mass are ‘very clearly’ in evidence in satellites images and field studies, omitted from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.” • “Inaction is inexcusable, weaker emissions targets for 2020 increases the risk of crossing numerous tipping points.” 3

[3. AAAS, “Projections of Climate Change Go from Bad to Worse, Scientists Report Science 323, (March 20, 2009): 1546–47.]

5. “We’ve got new evidence that human influence has changed the risk and has changed it enough that we can detect it.”4 2012 spring and summer heat waves in the U.S., humanMay 2016 = 408 ppm induced climate change was found to be a factor in the magnitude of warmth and affected the likelihood of such Annual CO2 emissions in 1990s rose 1.1% per heat waves. High temperatures, such as those year, yet since 2000 they rose 3.0% per year and are experienced in 2012 are now likely to occur four times as now accelerating (Proceedings of the National frequently due to human-induced climate change. Academy of Sciences, v.104, no.24, May 22, 2007, p. However, climate-change related increases in sea level 1 2015 Climate Change Update

doubled the probability of superstorm Hurricane Sandy-level flood recurrence as compared to 1950. Ongoing natural and human forcing of sea level ensures Sandy-level inundation events in the future.4 Each spring updated reports are published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, affirming this trends of weather intensification. [4. NOAA, British Met Office, “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from A Climate Perspective, special supplement to Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, v. 94, n. 9, September 2013.]

6. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) (2004), following four-years of multidisciplinary research concluded in their report Impacts of a Warming Arctic, in part: “Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), and secondarily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping (“'greenhouse”') gases in the atmosphere….this is projected to lead to significant and persistent changes in climate…these changes are projected to lead to wide-ranging consequences including significant impact on coastal communities, animal and plant species, water resources, and human health and well being.” 5

[5.

ACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic (London: Cambridge University Press, 2004), p. 2; and, Special Issue of AMBIO “Climate Change and UV-B Impacts on Tundra and Polar Desert Ecosystems,” The Royal Swedish Academy of Science, vol. 33 no 7, November 2004. http://www.arctic-council.org/.]

7. The results of a survey of all 928 climate change papers published in refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003 (ISI database), were analyzed by researcher Naomi Oreskes. “Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position.” There is scientific consensus that human activities are heating Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere. The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS): “This analysis shows that scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed literature agree with IPCC, the National Academy of Sciences, and public statements of their professional societies. Politicians, economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of confusion, disagreement, or discord among climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect….there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change.” 6 Naomi Oreskes, “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Science 306 (December 3, 2004): 1686.]

[6.

8. Sept. 16, 2012, the Greenland ice sheet reached the lowest extent, tying Sept. 2007 low record.… ice sheets will dominate future sea level rise. Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are losing ice mass 300% faster than rates in 1990. July 24, 2012, Greenland was 97% covered by meltwater, an extent never before seen.7 Each year this tend of accelerating melt continues. [7. “NASA Finds Polar ice Adding More to Rising Seas, “ Report

comparison, 29 Nov. 2012, NASA #2012–376. NASA measurements and Hansen and Sato analysis, “Update of Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss, Exponential?” 26 Dec 2012, GISS/NASA]

9. Disruptions in normal temperature patterns, such as December 2010 and in March 2013 while the midlatitudes were colder than average, the circumpolar regions were experiencing 15 C° to 20 C° above average temperatures. All the scientific reports find that the high latitudes are impacted at a far greater rate than the rest of the globe. As a result, the Arctic Ocean sea ice shrunk to its lowest extent in the record in September 2007 and tied this again in Sept. 2012, down to only 3.14 km 2. NASA reports, Arctic sea ice decreased 60% since 2004. Also setting records are the lowest maximum sea-ice extent reached between Feb. 28 and March 15, 2013. The summer Arctic Ocean could be ice free before 2020.8 [8. NSIDC, “Sea Ice Decline Intensifies,” September 28, 2005, and “Arctic Sea Ice Shatters All Previous Record Lows,” October 1, 2007. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), (http://nsidc.org). NASA Arctic sea-ice losses report August 2009. Dec 2010–Jan 2011 data and satellite measurements from NOAA, NCDC, and NASA Aqua satellite. Also, NSIDC/NOAA sources, such as “Sea ice max continues downward trend,” NASA Earth Observatory, April 4, 2013. NASA/GSFC Aqua and Terra satellites MODIS sensor, March 14–20, 2013. And see, “Ice-free Arctic Sea May Be Years, Not Decades, Away,” AAAS Science, v.337, 28 Sept. 2012, p. 1591.]

10. In Antarctica, analysis of the Dome–C ice core on the East Antarctic Plateau, an 8-year project and part of a 10country European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA), affirms previous ice-core findings concerning present record levels of greenhouse gases. Analysis published in September 2006 reported the climate record back to 800,000 years before the present, and confirm that present levels of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are the highest in the entire record. Furthermore, the co-variation between these radiatively active gases and climate, previously identified in the Vostok, Antarctica ice core, are strikingly evident, further proving the link between climate and greenhouse gases. 9

R. Spahni, et. al., “Atmospheric Methane and Nitrous Oxide of the Late Pleistocene from Antarctic Ice Cores,” Science 310 (Nov 25, 2005): 1317-21; summary by E.J. Brook, “Tiny Bubbles Tell All,” pp. 1285-87; British Antarctic Survey, 5 Sept ‘06.]

[9.

11. Declining glaciers in the Andes, East Africa, Himalayas, and Western North American mountains relate to climate warming and significant water resource losses in affected regions. Alaskan and Andean glacial melts alone account for more than 16% of global sealevel rise. 10 [10. P.W. Mote, et. al., “Declining Mountain Snowpack in Western North America,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86 (January 2005): 39-49; T.P. Barnett, et. al., “Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions,” Nature 438 (November 17, 2005): 303-09, and summary 275-76. Also, Richard Kerr, “Experts Agree Global Warming Is Melting the World Rapidly,” Science v. 338, p. 1138, 30 Nov. 2012.]

2011–070, NASA/JPL, GRACE satellite, March 8, 2011. Also, NSIDC/NOAA sources. Also, “ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-

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12. Research establishes a new “total dissipation index” to rate the potential destructiveness, integrated over the lifetime, of tropical cyclones. This index is a gauge of storm intensity. The new research relates the marked increase in tropical cyclone intensity since 1970 as “...highly correlated with tropical sea-surface temperatures, reflecting well-documented climate signals...and global warming.” Among several conclusions: “...the near doubling of power dissipation over the period of record should be a matter of some concern, as it is a measure of the destructive potential of tropical cyclones.” 11

The intensity in each storm is significant because of an increase in vulnerable populations—the 2005 season set many records including most named storms (27, average is 10; not ending until 1/6/2006), hurricanes (15, average is 5), and number of intense hurricanes category 3 or higher (7, average is 2). US destruction totals for 2005 added to 2008 are at $255 billion. A study published in Science in April 2006 said: “The [study] results show that the trend of increasing numbers of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the period 1970-2004 is directly linked to the trend in sea-surface temperature….Higher sea-surface temperature was the only statistically significant controlling variable related to the upward trend in global hurricane strength since 1970.” 12

National Climate Data Center, Aug. 20, 2009: global oceans average 17°C (62.6°F) in July 2009, highest in all the years of record. Each year finds ocean temperatures continuing to increase to new records. [11. K. Emanual, “Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years,” Nature 436 (August 4, 2005): 686-688. 12. Another study by C.D. Hoyos, P.A. Agudelo, P.J. Webster, and J.A. Curry, “Deconvolution of Factors Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity, Science, April 7, 2006 (v 312 no. 5770): pp. 94-97.]

quickly than climate models indicate….The rate of sea-level rise for the past 20 years is 25% faster than the rate of rise in any 20-year period in the preceding 115 years….Since 1990 the observed sea-level has been rising faster than the rise projected by models.”

15. The National Research Council of the National Academies of Sciences, October 2010, stated: “Earth is warming… with the most pronounced warming over the past three decades…. Most of the warming over the past several decades is attributable to human activities that release carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases from the burning of fossil fuels…. Global warming is closely associated with a broad spectrum of other climate changes, frequency of intense rainfall, decreases in snow cover and sea ice, increasingly intense heat waves, rising sea levels, widespread ocean acidification.” 14

[14.

Natural Research Council of the National Academies of Science published in three volumes, I–Advancing the Science of Climate Change, II–Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change, and III–Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, the National Academies October 2010, (836 pages). Also, NRC Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Climate Change Science, An Analysis of Some Key Questions (Washington: National Academy Press, May 2001).]

16. The National Research Council (NRC) in response to an administration request to investigate the IPCC scientific rigor confirmed that the IPCC Assessment Report,s “…accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue.” 17. IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III describes “No regrets” options in reduction of greenhouse gas emissions even if the consensus science proves incorrect, in that: “No regrets options are by definition greenhouse gas emissions reduction options that have negative net costs, because they generate direct and indirect benefits that are large enough to offset the costs of implementing options.” 15

[15. 13. Surface albedo (the reflective quality of a surface) is a function of its color—dark is most absorptive, white is most reflective—darker ocean water absorbs more solar energy. Rising temperatures in the Arctic regions are leading to less Arctic Ocean pack ice; sea ice was at its lowest extent on record in 2007, second-lowest in 2008, and again tied for lowest seaice extent in 2012; 2013 minimum extent sea ice was sixth lowest in the record. Also, there is reduced snow on land—forming darker, more absorptive surfaces. Surface energy budgets are at a “tipping point.” 13 [13. S. Perkins, “Runaway Heat, A darkening Arctic may accelerate warming trends there,” Science News 168 (Nov 12, 2005): 312-14; NSIDC and NASA measurements of Arctic sea ice, previously referenced.]

Working Group III, Climate Change 2001, Mitigation, (London: Cambridge University Press, 2001): 21, 474–76.]

18. Claims that curbing greenhouse gas emissions would damage the U.S. economy are not supported in the scientific or econometric literature. Five Department of Energy national laboratories, including Oak Ridge (ORNL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL), National Renewable Energy (NREL), and Argonne (ANL) reported that the U.S. can meet the Kyoto carbon emission reduction targets with negative annual overall costs (cash benefit savings) ranging from –$7 to – $34 billion. 16 [16. S. Brown, “Scenarios of U.S. carbon reductions,” 1997; and “A Clean Energy Future for the U.S.,” 2000, prepared by ORNL, LBNL, PNNL, NREL, ANL, Washington: Department of Energy.]

19. The most detailed econometric analysis of mitigating global climate change is in Nicholas Stern’s The Economics of Climate Change—The Stern Review, Cambridge University Press, 2007, where the costs of stabilizing climate is manageable whereas delays are “The data now available raise concerns that the climate dangerous and far more costly; reversing trends toward a system, in particular sea level, may be responding more 3 2015 Climate Change Update

14. S. Rahmstorf, et.al., “Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections,” AAAS Science 316 (May 4, 2007): p. 709, reports that,

low-carbon economy means economic growth, new businesses, and species saved. 20. Climate change is accelerating biodiversity losses and increasing rates of animal and plant extinctions, such as the harlequin frog (Atelopus). Researchers attribute climate change related to global warming with the extinction of 67% of the 110 known species of this frog between 1975 and 2000. The integrated analysis links temperature increases, cloud-cover changes and albedo-cloud forcing, thus lowering surface temperatures below 25°C (77°F) permitting the sudden increase of an opportunistic skin fungus and decimating this indicator species. “The powerful synergy between pathogen transmission and climate change should give us cause for concern about human health in a warmer world….The frogs are sending an alarm call to all concerned about the future of biodiversity and the need to protect the greatest of all open-access resources—the atmosphere.” 17 J. A. Ponds, et. al., “Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming,” Nature 439 (January 12, 2006): 161-67; summary by A. Blaustein and A. Dobson, “A message from the frogs,” pp. 143-44.]

[17.

21. The 2006 Greenland analysis in AAAS Science, “The Greenland Ice Sheet and Global Sea-Level Rise,” and, “Changes in the Velocity Structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet,” states: “…the ice sheet has experienced a greater area of surface melting this year than at any time since systematic satellite monitoring began in 1979.” “This new information on [outlet glacier] velocity change more than doubles the previous estimates of losses from the ice sheet to the global ocean.” “Total ice sheet loss, combining dynamic losses and deviations from a zero-anomaly surface mass balance, is then 91 (±31) km 3 ice/year in 1996; 138 (±31) km 3 ice/year in 2000; and, 224 (±41 km 3 ) ice/year in 2005; Greenland’s mass loss therefore doubled in the last decade, well beyond error bounds.” 18

To update, 2007 data shows losses of 251(±35) km 3 ice/year (Univ. of Colorado data), which is almost triple 1996 losses. The Greenland meltdown: July 24, 2012, the summer meltwater covered 97% of the ice sheet, with record runoff—a new kind of hydrologic science is underway. If the melt rate losses double each 10 years sea level will rise 1 meter by 2067; a 5-year doubling time will produce a 1 meter rise by 2045. [18. E. Rignot and P. Kanagaratnam, “Changes in the Velocity Structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet,” AAAS Science, Feb. 17, 2006 (v 311, no. 5763): pp. 986-90; and in the same issue, "The Greenland Ice Sheet and Global Sea-Level Rise," by J.Dowdeswell, pp. 963-64. Also see, Hansen and Sato, “Update Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss, Exponential?” Dec. 26, 2012, GISS/NASA.]

22. New data available on the increasing Antarctic ice losses was published in Nature, January 2009: In recent decades, rapid warming of the western edge of the Antarctic Peninsula…scientists thought that the warming…was a localized phenomenon. But a team

led by Eric Steig, U. of Washington, has shown that Antarctic warming extends beyond the peninsula and covers most of West Antarctica.19

[19. E.J. Steig, et.al., “Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year,” Nature January 22, 2009 (v 457): pp. 356, 459–62.]

23. Another impact was reported in Science, 18 Aug 2006, “Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity,” “Higher spring and summer temperatures and earlier snowmelt are extending the wildfire season and increasing the intensity of wildfires in the western U.S.” “Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher largewildfire frequency. Longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons….strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.” 20 [20. A. L. Westerling, H. G. Hidalgo, et. al., “Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity,” Science Aug 2006 (v 313, no. 5789): pp. 927–27, 940–43.]

24. In August 2007, the GAO (Government Accountability Office), an investigative arm for Congress, summarized: “Federal land and water resources are vulnerable to a wide range of effects from climate change, some of which are already occurring. These effects include, among others, (1) physical effects, such as droughts, floods, glacial melting, and sea level rise; (2) biological effects, such as increases in insect and disease infestations, shifts in species distribution, and changes in the timing of natural events; and (3) economic and social effects, such as adverse impacts on tourism, infrastructure, fishing, and other resource uses.” 21

[21. CLIMATE CHANGE, Agencies Should Develop Guidance for Addressing the Effects on Federal Land and Water Resources, GAO07-863, Washington DC: August 2007.]

25. Scientists state that 450 ppm is a climatic threshold where Earth systems transition into a chaotic mode; with accelerating CO2 emissions this level of CO2 occurs in the 2020s decade. “If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed, paleoclimatic evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO 2 will need to be reduced to at most 350 ppm… To avoid irreversible ice sheet and species loss implies maximum CO2 of ~450 ppm…. To restore planetary energy balance needs reduction to 325–355 ppm and to restore sea-ice extent reductions to 300–325 ppm.” 22 (22. Source: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/ TargetCO2_20080317.pdf; Atmospheric Science Journal, March 2008, 2:217–231.)

26. National Climate Data Center, NOAA, The State of the Climate Report, July 10, 2010: “A comprehensive review of key climate indicators confirms the world is warming and the past decade was the warmest on record. More than 300 scientists from 48 countries analyzed data on 37 climate indicators, including sea ice, glaciers and air temperatures…. A warmer climate means higher sea level, humidity and temperatures in the air and ocean. A warmer climate also means less snow cover, melting Arctic sea ice and shrinking glaciers…. Recent studies show the world’s oceans are heating up as they absorb most of the extra heat being added to the climate

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system from the build-up of heat-trapping gases…. Continued temperature increases will threaten many aspects of our society, including coastal cities and infrastructure, water supply and agriculture. People have spent thousands of years building society for one climate and now a new one is being created – one that’s warmer and more extreme.”

27. Global climate change through human-induced increases in greenhouse gases contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. In regards to floods, global anthropogenic greenhouse gases substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence. 23 [23. S.K. Min, et.al., “Human contribution to more-intense precipitation,” and, P. Pall, et.al., “Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk…,” both in Nature v. 470, (February 16, 2011): pp. 378–81; 382–85]

28. Regarding the U.S. Southwest drought, underway since early 2000, scientists reported this remarkable situation links directly to global climate change: “The projected future climate of intensified aridity in the Southwest is caused by . . . a poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zones. The drying of subtropical land areas . . . imminent or already underway is unlike any climate state we have seen in the instrumental record. It is also distinct from the multi-decadal mega-droughts that afflicted the American Southwest during Medieval times. . . . The most severe future droughts will still occur during persistent La Niña events, but they will be worse than any since the Medieval period, because the La Niña conditions will be perturbing a base state that is drier than any state experienced recently.” And, “…dust bowl-like conditions predicted for the southwestern US over the next century in response to anthropogenic warming arise from a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies…” 24

[24. Richard Seager et al., “Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America,” Science 316, no. 5828 (May 25, 2007): 1184. And see, P.J. Fawcett, et.al., “Extended megadroughts in the southwestern United States…,” Nature v. 470 (February 24, 2011): pp. 473, 518–21.]

AR5 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2014, (see www.ipcc.ch/); Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) sampler: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis (AR5 September 2013, )— • Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system. • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are

unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. It is extremely likely (95–100%) that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-twentieth century. • Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. • Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010. Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will increase ocean acidification. • Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent. • The rate of sea level rise since the mid-nineteenth century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 m (0.6 ft). • The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions (deforestation and clearing). The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification. • Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. • Changes in the global water cycle will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase. • Global mean sea level will continue to rise. The rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010, due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets. Working Group II–Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability (AR5 March 2014)— • Human interference with the climate system is occurring, and climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts. • In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. • In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality. Glaciers

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continue to shrink almost worldwide due to climate change, affecting runoff and water resources downstream. Climate change is causing permafrost warming and thawing in high-latitude regions and in high-elevation regions. • Many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances, and species interactions in response to ongoing climate change. • Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts. • Climate-related hazards affect poor people’s lives, among others, directly through impacts on livelihoods, reductions in crop yields, or destruction of homes, and indirectly through, for example, increased food prices and food insecurity. Unprecedented climates will impact earliest in lowincome countries in the tropics. • Governments at various levels are starting to develop adaptation plans and policies and to integrate climate-change considerations into broader development plans. • There is risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and small island developing states and other small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea-level rise. • Systemic risks are increasing due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services. • Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and pastoralists. • With increasing warming, some physical systems or ecosystems may be at risk of abrupt and irreversible changes. Risks increase disproportionately as temperature increases between 1-2 C. • Climate change is projected to progressively increase inter-annual variability of crop yields in many regions. These projected impacts will occur in the context of rapidly rising crop demand. • Climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and intergroup violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and access to resources. • Throughout the 21st century, climate-change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode food security, and prolong existing and create new poverty traps. • Managing the risks of climate change involves adaptation and mitigation decisions with implications

for future generations, economies, and environments. Working Group III–Mitigation of Climate Change (AR5 April 2014)— • Effective mitigation will not be achieved if individual agents advance their own interests independently. Climate change has the characteristics of a collective action problem at the global scale, because most greenhouse gases (GHGs) accumulate over time and mix globally. International cooperation is therefore required to effectively mitigate GHG emissions and address other climate change issues. • Among other methods, economic evaluation is commonly used to inform climate policy design. Practical tools for economic assessment include cost‐ benefit analysis, cost‐ effectiveness analysis, multi‐ criteria analysis and expected utility theory. • CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contributed about 78% of the total GHG emission increase from 1970 to 2010, with a similar percentage contribution for the period 2000–2010. • About half of cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years (high scientific confidence). • Globally, economic and population growth continue to be the most important drivers of increases in CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The contribution of population growth between 2000 and 2010 remained roughly identical to the previous three decades, while the contribution of economic growth has risen sharply. • Mitigation scenarios in which it is likely that the temperature change caused by anthropogenic GHG emissions can be kept to less than 2 C° relative to pre‐ industrial levels are characterized by atmospheric concentrations in 2100 of about 450 ppm CO2. • Delaying mitigation efforts beyond those in place today through 2030 is estimated to substantially increase the difficulty of the transition to low longer‐ term emissions levels and narrow the range of options. • Decarbonizing (i.e., reducing the carbon intensity of) electricity generation is a key component of cost‐ effective mitigation strategies in achieving climate stabilization—renewables, conservation, and energy efficiencies. • Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns. • There has been a considerable increase in national and sub‐ national mitigation plans and strategies since AR4… an increased focus on policies designed to integrate multiple objectives are needed now. • The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the main multilateral forum focused on addressing climate change, with universal participation—See COP 21 section.

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Coordinating Global Climate Change Research United Nations Environment Programme http://www.unep.ch/ World Meteorological Organization http://www.wmo.ch/ World Climate Research Programme http://www.wcrp-climate.org Global Climate Observing System http://gosic.org/ios/GCOS-main-pge.htm Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change http://www.ipcc.ch/ Arctic Council http://www.arctic-council.org/ Arctic Climate Impact Assessment http://www.acia.uaf.edu/ U.S. Global Change Research Program http://www.globalchange.gov U.S. Environmental Protection Agency http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ Goddard Institute for Space Studies http://www.giss.nasa.gov/ Global Hydrology and Climate Center http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov National Climate Data Center http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ Nat’l Environmental Satellite, Data, & Infor Service http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/ NASA Global Climate Change http://climate.nasa.gov/ NWS Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Climate Institute http://www.climate.org/ National Ice Center http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ National Snow and Ice Data Center http://nsidc.org/ National Center for Atmospheric Research http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/ British Antarctic Survey http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/ International Union for the Conservation of Nature http://www.iucn.org/ What Can I Do As One Person—brief intro: Don’t try to do everything—just do something to get started. Start with a few things, then, add a few more as you progress in your personal strategy. The reality of mitigating carbon dioxide emissions is that it saves you money, improves health and welfare in many ways, can reduce weather extremes, and benefits future generations. Sampler of Simple Things: Obey the speed limit and drive efficiently. Check your tires for proper inflation.

Combine automobile trips. Buy locally produced foods whenever possible. Adjust your thermostat lower in winter, higher in summer. Complain when you enter a building that is too cold. Unplug electronics when not in use. Wash clothes in cold water. Use the vacation-mode setting on the water heater when leaving home for more than a day. Use a solar clothes dryer–an indoor (such as a shower curtain rod) or outdoor clothesline. Plant trees. Remember the 3 Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle. Recycle everything you can. Sort recyclables in waste management bins or “blue bags.” Inventory your trash for a week; find out what you use. Pay attention to the purchases you make. Buy items with the least amount of packaging. Buy products made from recycled materials. Use cloth bags for all shopping or refuse a paper or plastic bag if product can be carried without a bag. Recycle newspaper, white paper, and magazines. Buy recycled paper goods. Use cloth napkins instead of paper. Use cloth towels or rags instead of paper towels. Reduce junk mail, register at “mail preference service.” Recycle old electronics, cell phones, computers, etc. Eat only sustainably harvested seafood (check the Monterey Bay Aquarium website). Have one or more meatless days every week. Don’t leave water running while you brush your teeth, shave, or wash dishes. Repair leaking faucets or leaking toilets. Wash produce in a bowl, not under running water. Only run the dishwasher when it is full. Take shorter or fewer showers. Use a car wash that recycles its water. Properly dispose of hazardous wastes such as batteries, paint, and unused pesticides/containers. Cook some dishes in a solar cooker in summer. A Little Less Simple and A Little More Money: Replace incandescent bulbs with energy efficient compact fluorescents (CFL) or the newer and even more efficient and long-lasting LED bulbs. Turn off lights when leaving a room. Install on-demand hot water tank or hot water pump. Install low-flow faucets and showerheads. Install dual-flush 1.28 gal/flush toilets. Install a “whole house” fan, or an attic fan. Use the Sun to passively reduce your energy footprint. Cover south and west-facing windows in summer— curtains, sun screens. Uncover south and west-facing windows in winter. Plant trees and shrubs on the hot (south and west) sides of the house. Replace all or part of your lawn with low water-use, drought-tolerant plants.

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Start a worm farm to process your vegetable scraps or start a compost heap for yard waste. More Commitment and More Money, also more savings: Buy an energy-efficient vehicle next time. Buy energy-efficient appliances. Install solar tubes or skylights in interior rooms. Reduce your carbon footprint—buy carbon credits. Install solar electric photovoltaic panels on your roof. Install solar water heating on your roof. Use bicycles where and when possible. Additional background: Obey the speed limit and drive efficiently. To improve gas mileage by 15%, obey the speed limit and avoid “jackrabbit starts” and heavy-footed stops. Each gallon of gas saved keeps 20 pounds of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere—one driver in 1 car getting better mileage, times an average of 30,000 miles a year = approximately 4.0 tons of CO2 avoided. Properly inflated automobile tires improve gas mileage more than 3%. Combine shopping trips, walk, bike, carpool, and use mass transit. Walking has the triple advantage of saving money, saving energy, and providing exercise. One pound of carbon dioxide is saved for every mile you don’t drive. (2000 miles less a year = 2.4 tons of CO2). Check out hybrid cars, electric cars, or Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs). We’ve driven Honda hybrids (4-door sedans) for 14 years and experienced no problems and we average 51 mpg on long drives. Our 2016 Nissan Leaf all-electric car is incredible! Complain to the manager when you enter a restaurant, theater, or shop that is too cold. We live in a place that is very hot in the summer. It is an irony that we must take coats along when eating out or grocery shopping so as not to freeze. We carry a small thermometer to show the establishment’s manager. Heating and cooling of businesses is a major use of energy and a significant overhead cost for them! Why not reduce the carbon footprint when you dine out? Do a home or apartment energy audit, check out Building Performance Institute (BPI) and Residential Energy Services Network (RESNET) methods. Check Energy Star for information on Federal Tax Credits of up to 30% for energy conservation and efficiency upgrades, www.energystar.gov. Adjust your thermostat 2 F° lower in winter and 2 F° higher in summer. For an average house this saves 2000 pounds of CO2 a year—try for a

setting of 70° to 72°F in winter and 79° to 80°F in summer—One house, 1 year = 1.0 ton of CO2. Unplug electronics from the wall when you’re not using them. Even when turned off, things like hairdryers, cell phone chargers, and televisions use energy. In fact, the energy used to keep display clocks lit and memory chips working accounts for 5 percent of total domestic energy consumption, results in 18 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere every year from power plants! One house 1 year = 2.0 tons of CO2. The concept of an individual’s “footprint” has emerged— ecological footprint, carbon footprint, lifestyle footprint. These consider what your affluence and technology cost planetary systems. Footprint assessment is grossly simplified, but it can give you an idea of your impact and even an estimate of how many planets it would take to sustain that lifestyle and economy if everyone lived like you. Many Internet links will help to calculate your footprint; here is a sample of sites among others: http://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator1.html http://www.myfootprint.org http://www.nature.org/greenliving/carboncalculator/ http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/ind_ calculator.html http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/ Reduce your carbon footprint—check into “carbon credits.” You cannot entirely avoid producing carbon but you can offset a lot of it. An average American household generates about 8.2 tons of carbon per year. For instance, every kilowatt of electricity generated from solar-electric and wind turbines renewables, or saved through conservation and energy efficiencies, is one kilowatt not needed from burning fossil fuels in traditional power plants. All this climate change information and science might seem depressing, and each of us powerless to make a difference, yet with information and facts we are, in fact, empowered. This is an empowerment process! Reread the IPCC summaries and you can see we know what the problem is, we know what the mitigations are, and the planning process for needed adaptations is underway. We can defeat political stumbling blocks to needed action, simply by being informed and conscious and active. There are no mysteries here, except for human inaction! You can easily be part of positive action and be joining others along a positive pathway, and be saving money all along the way for yourself and family.

Seize the day!! Robert Christopherson: [email protected]

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