‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﺠﺰاﺋﺮ‬ ‫آﻠﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدیﺔ وﻋﻠﻮم اﻟﺘﺴﻴﻴﺮ‬

‫ﻣﺬآﺮة ﻟﻨﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﺷﻬﺎدة اﻟﻤﺎﺟﺴﺘﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﻓﺮع‪ :‬اﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ واﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﻣﻦ إﻋﺪاد اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮزاق ﺱﻠﻴﻤﺎﻥﻲ‬

‫ﺕﺤﺖ إﺷﺮاف اﻷﺱﺘﺎذ‪:‬‬ ‫اﻟﺪآﺘﻮر‪ :‬ﻋﺒﺪ اﻟﺤﻤﻴﺪ زﻋﺒﺎط‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬

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‫ﲰﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻧﻌﻴﺶ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ )ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﻟﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ( ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺴـﺮﻳﻊ ﻭﺍﳌﺴـﺘﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴـﺎ‬

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‫ﻭﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﰲ ﻧﻈﻢ ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﻋﺎﱂ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺮﻧﻴﺖ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻀﺎﺋﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺯﻳـﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻇـﺎﻫﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﳌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺄﺑﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﰲ ﻣﻴﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺃﺫﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ ﻟﺼﺎﱀ ﺳﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺗﻠﱯ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻭﻃﻤﻮﺣﺎﺕ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻟﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻴﺰﺕ ﺍﻷﻟﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﺷﺘﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﺍﻉ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺸﺘﺪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﰲ ﳐﺘﻠـﻒ ﺩﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ‪ ،‬ﺑﺘﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺿﺨﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺳﻠﻊ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲟﻌﲎ ﺁﺧـﺮ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﰲ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﻧﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻟﻠﺨﺮﻭﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺆﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﻒ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳏﻮ ﺁﺛـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻘـﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻤﻮﺡ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﺠﻠﻰ ﻭﺗﱪﺯ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻛﻜﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻠﻌﺐ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻫﺎﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺧﻠﻖ ﻣﻨﺎﺻـﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﻞ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻮﻓﲑﻫﺎ ﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﲟﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺮﻓﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻌﻴﺸﺘﻬﻢ ﻭﺭﻓﺎﻫﻴﺘﻬﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻳﺘﺼﻒ ﺑﺄﳘﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﺔ ﰲ ﻇـﻞ ﺍﳌـﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺟﺎﺀﺕ ﺑﺂﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻛﺎﳋﻮﺻﺼﺔ ﻭﺗﻨﺸﻴﻂ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻭﺇﻃﻼﻕ ﻗـﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺴـﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﻹﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﺑﲔ ﻗﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺷﺘﺪﺍﺩ ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺭﺟﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ ﺟﻴﺪﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﳚﻌـﻞ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻳﲔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘـﻲ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺃﳘﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺗﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﻭﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﳌﺎ ﺗﻌﺎﻧﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺪﺭﺓ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺑﺘﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﲟﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﺍﻟﻜﻒﺀ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﳊﺎﺿﺮ ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﻓﻌﺎﻟـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﻔﻜﺮ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻲ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺻﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻗﻞ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﳑﻜﻨﺔ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻭﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺑﺮﻭﺯ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺣﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﰲ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﺗﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﻗﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺗﺐ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺸﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺪﻳﻦ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﻳﻦ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻋﻲ ﰲ ﺃﺭﺟﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ ﻭﲞﺎﺻﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﺑﺄﳘﻴﺔ ﺇﳒﺎﺯ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﲣﺼﻴﺺ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻭﺍﻹﻧﻔـﺎﻕ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪ ﻓﺘﺢ ﺁﻓﺎﻗﺎ ﺭﺣﺒﺔ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺜﻠﻰ ﻭﻟﻜﺎﻓـﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻـﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻭﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻻﺷﻚ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺑﺈﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﻪ ﺃﻭ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﻩ ﳚﻌﻞ ﻣﻨﻪ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﻠﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺃﻥ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻠﻪ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎ ﻭﺛﻴﻘﺎ ﺑﺼﻼﺣﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺃﻧﺸﺊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﻣﺎﺳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺍﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﻭﻋﻤﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﺍﻟﺴـﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺩﻭﺍﺋﺮ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﻭﲟﻌﲎ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺈﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻻ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﺎﺿﻲ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻏﻔﺎﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻻ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻧﺼﻴﺐ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺸﻞ ﺇﻥ ﻋﺎﺟﻼ ﺃﻭ ﺁﺟﻼ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﺗﺜﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﺎ ﻣﻦ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺸﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﳒﺎﺣﻬﺎ ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﻳﺴﺘﺮﻋﻲ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺟﺐ ﺇﺯﺍﺀ ﺫﻟـﻚ‬ ‫ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﻴﻠﻮﻟﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺸﻞ‪ ،‬ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻬﻧﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺻﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﻴﺎﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﺎ ﺟﻮﻫﺮﻳﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺟﻬﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺇﱃ ﺗﺮﺷـﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﲣﺎﺫﻫﺎ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺻﺎﺋﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﲟـﺎ ﳜـﺪﻡ ﺃﻫـﺪﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺪ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺭﻏﻢ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻷﻋﻤـﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﻲ ﺗﻮﻗﻴﺖ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ‬ ‫ﲣﺼﻴﺺ ﺍﻷﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺤﻘﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻭﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﺯﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳜﺘﻠﻒ ﻓﻴﻤـﺎ ﺑـﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻠﻘﲔ ﻟﻸﻣﻮﺍﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻻﺑﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺸﲑ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﲟﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻔﻀﻲ ﺇﱃ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻏﲑ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺇﻥ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻳﺸﻌﺮ ﲝﺎﺟﺘﻪ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣـﺎﺕ ﻛﺎﻓﻴـﺔ ﻭﺑﻀـﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺗﻌﺎﰿ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻛﻤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻊ ﺗﻌﺪﺩ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺜﺮ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﻊ ﺭﺑﻂ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻮﺓ‬ ‫ﺑﲔ ﺃﺳﺲ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﱪﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺸﺎﺭﻳﲔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺠـﻮﺓ ﻭﻟﺘﺤﺴـﲔ ﻛﻔـﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺗﺴﺎﻉ ﳏﻴﻂ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺗﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺎﺭﺱ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﺗﺘﺼﻒ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﻘﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧـﺐ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﻮﺛﻮﻕ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻭﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺍﳋﱪﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﲔ ﺃﻫﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﰲ ﻫـﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟـﺎﻝ ﻣﺸـﻔﻮﻋﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻣﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻆ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﻮﻋـﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﻧﺮﻯ ﺑﻌﻀﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﺭ ﻭﺍﻹﳘﺎﻝ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺍﳊﻴﻮﻱ ﻗﺪ ﺑﺮﺯ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻭﺑﺄﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﳑﺎ ﺗﺴﺒﺐ ﰲ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻹﺧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺛﺒﺖ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑـﺔ ﺑﺄﻬﻧـﺎ ﱂ‬ ‫ﺗﺪﺭﺱ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺟﻴﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺟﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻧﺎﻗﺼـﺔ ﺃﻭ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺃﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﻘﺘﺼﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳉﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻘﺪﻣﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻧﺮﻯ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﳓﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﺷﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﲝﺜﻨﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺅﻝ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺣﱴ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﻛﺄﺩﺍﺓ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺔ ﺍﲣـﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻧﻪ ﺃﻥ ﳛﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ؟‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﺆﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻔﺮﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺇﺷﻜﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺔ ﻧﻮﺟﺰﻫﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﳌﻘﺼﻮﺩ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ؟‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ؟‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﻫﻞ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ؟‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﻛﻴﻒ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻤﻲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ؟‬ ‫‪ - ٥‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺟﺐ ﺃﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺣﱴ ﻳﻠﻌﺐ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﰲ ﺭﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ؟‬

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‫ﻭﻟﻠﺮﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﺭﺩﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﲝﺜﻨﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻨﺎ ﳒﺪ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﺳـﺌﻠﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺒﻖ ﻭﺃﻥ ﻃﺮﺣﻨﺎﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﻠﻄﲔ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻧﺮﻯ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺿـﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ ﺇﺛﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﲝﺜﻨﺎ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻀﻤﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺇﺷﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ‪،‬ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺑﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺇﻃﺎﺭﺍ ﺷﺎﻣﻼ ﺑﺄﺑﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﰲ ﻓﺸﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺇﱃ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺿﺮﻭﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺗﻔﺮﺽ ﻋﻠﻴﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺃﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻤﻘﺔ ﻭﺃﲝﺎﺙ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻬﻧﺎ ﻳﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﺼﲑ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﳎﻬﻮﻻ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٤‬ﺇﻥ ﺇﺷﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺪﻋﻲ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻗﺼﺪ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٥‬ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻧﻌﺎﱐ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺗﺮﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺸﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﻔﺎﻗﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻋﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﻔﺮﺽ ﻋﻠﻴﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﻜﲑ ﺍﳉﺪﻱ ﰲ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺝ ﻭﺍﳊﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻧﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ ﺣﻞ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﻭﻳﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺗﺮ ﻭﺍﻻﺿﻄﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺑﻌﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺣﺴﺐ ﺭﺃﻳﻨﺎ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟـﻚ ﻳﻜﻤـﻦ ﰲ ﺗﻔﻌﻴـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ) ﳎﺴﺪﺍ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ( ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻛﱪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺃﻧﺸﺌﺖ ﻭﺃﻗﻴﻤـﺖ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺲ ﻭﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺻﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﻤﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻧﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻀـﻤﻦ ﳍـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﺩﻓﻌﻨﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﺬﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻏﲑﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺿـﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟـﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﳓﺮﺹ ﰲ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻤﻼ ﺇﺟﺒﺎﺭﻳﺎ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻭﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻧﺴﻌﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﰲ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﺍ ﺭﺍﺳﺨﺎ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﰎ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﻛﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‬ ‫)ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻨﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻴﺒﻴﺔ ( ﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﻫﻮ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﲑﺍﺗﻴﺠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻫﻮ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﻣﺎﺳﺔ ﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﻭﺃﻥ ﻗﻄـﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﳌﺪﺍﺧﻴﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺒﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺩﻓﻌﺘﻨﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻏﲑﻩ‪ ،‬ﻧﻮﺟﺰﻫﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﻣﻴﻮﻟﻨﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳋﻮﺽ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺁﻝ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺑﻼﺩﻧﺎ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻛﻔﺎﺀﻬﺗﺎ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻓﻴﻪ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﻒ ﻭﺍﻻﻬﻧﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺻﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﻴﺎﻉ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻜﺘﺴﻴﻬﺎ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﺬﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٥‬ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﺘﺠﻠﻰ ﺑﻮﺿﻮﺡ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺈﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﻭﺍﻹﺣﻼﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺪﻳﺪ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤـﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻓﻜﺮﻱ ﻋﻠﻤﻲ ‪.‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺗﺮﺳﻴﺦ ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴـﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻈـﺮﻱ ﺃﻭ ﰲ ﺍﳊـﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻻﻗﺘﻨﺎﻋﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻳﻌﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻤﻖ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﻧﺄﻣﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻓﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺪﺍﺭﺳﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﺪﺭﺑﲔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﺃﻱ ﳎﺎﻝ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﻣﺎ ﻬﻧﺪﻑ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﲟﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻗﺼﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋـﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛـﺪ ﻭﺍﳌﺨـﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴـﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﺇﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻭﻓﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﺮﺗﻜﺰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺲ ﻋﻠﻤﻴـﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻤﻘﺔ ﻭﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٤‬ﺗﺄﺻﻴﻞ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ) ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ( ﺑﻐﻴـﺔ ﺍﺳـﺘﺨﻼﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻼﺀﻡ ﻭﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻤﻘﺔ ﰲ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻋﻼﻗﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻳﺪﻱ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺗﺬﺓ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺃﻃﺮﻭﺣﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﲑ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﺸـﲑ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎ ﺟﺎﺀﺕ ﻟﺘﻜﻤﻞ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻬﺎﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻗﺼﺪ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻣـﻦ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺒـﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ) ﺣﻴﺚ ﱂ ﺗﺘﻨﺎﻭﳍﺎ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﻭﱂ ﺗﻮﳍﺎ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣـﺎ( ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﻧﺮﻯ ﺑﺄﳘﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺿﺮﻭﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﰲ ﻭﻗﺘﻨﺎ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ‪،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﺷﺮﻧﺎ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺒﻌﺚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻮﺙ ﰲ ﺍﳉﻮ ﻭﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﻛﻴﻤﺎﻭﻳـﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴـﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴـﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﻭﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺘﺰﺍﻣﻦ ﻣﻊ ﻫﺎﺟﺲ ﺗﻮﺳﻊ ﺛﻘﺐ ﻃﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﺯﻭﻥ ﻟﻠﻐﻼﻑ ﺍﳉﻮﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﺪﻓﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻫﺪﻑ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻨﺆﻛـﺪ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻬﻤـﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣـﺎﺕ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﺗﺘﻤﺤﻮﺭ ﺣﻮﻝ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻓﻴﻖ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻭﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺘﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﳌﺎ ﻟﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻼﻗـﺔ ﺑﺮﻓﺎﻫﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬

‫ﻩ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍ‪-‬ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ ﺑﻌﺪﺍﺵ ﻣﺴﻴﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺪﻭﻝ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻗﻮﻳﺪﺭﻱ ﳏﻤﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﺲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺯﻛﺮﻱ ﳏﻤﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺆﻛﺪ ) ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻧﺴﻴﺔ (‪.‬‬‫ ﺑﻦ ﲪﻮﺩﺓ ﳏﺒﻮﺏ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬‫ﺏ‪-‬ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻗﻨﺪﻳﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻲ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﺑﺘﺴﺎﻡ ﺣﺴﲔ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﶈﺎﻛﺎﺓ‪.‬‬‫ ﺳﻬﲑ ﺳﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻒ ‪،‬ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﻟﻺﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺷﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻭﺇﺛﺒﺎﺗﺎ ﻟﺼﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﻨﺎﺓ ‪،‬ﺍﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﺠﺎ ﻭﺻﻔﻴﺎ ﲢﻠﻴﻠﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﳜﺺ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﻈـﺮﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺠﺰﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ‪.‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻨﺎ ﺑﺄﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻟﻨﺎ ﻟـﺪﻭﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﺧﻄﺔ ﻭﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﲔ‪ ،‬ﺃﺣﺪﳘﺎ ﻧﻈﺮﻱ ﻭﺍﻵﺧﺮ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻘﺪ ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺑﻮﺿﻊ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺿـﻮﺀ ﺍﻟﻔـﺮﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺗﻀﻤﻨﺖ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﻭﺗﻄﺮﻗﻨﺎ ﰲ ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺜﻪ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺇﱃ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﳌﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻌﻪ ﻭﺃﺻﻨﺎﻓﻪ‪ ،‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻫـﻢ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ‪ ،‬ﰎ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﺧﲑ ﰎ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻋﻼﻗﺘـﻬﺎ ﺑﺼـﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﴰﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺧﺼﺺ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﻜﻞ ﻣﺎ ﲢﺘﻮﻳﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬

‫*ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺈﺳﻬﺎﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺜﻪ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﰒ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﻼﻣﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﰎ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﺇﱃ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺧـﲑﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺽ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﻗﺴﻢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ﲬﺴﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﲝﻴﺚ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜـﺎﱐ ﺗﻀـﻤﻦ‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻳﻠﻲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﺧﲑ ﰎ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﺇﱃ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﻘـﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫*ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻭﰎ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺍﳋﻤﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺒﺤـﺚ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﻨﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ﻓﻘﺪ ﰎ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺮﻕ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻫـﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﺧﲑ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﻨﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪.‬‬

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‫*ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﻭﺃﻭﺿﺤﻨﺎ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ‪ ،‬ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﻨﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻨـﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﺗﻄﺮﻗﻨﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈـﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻀﻤﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺒﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﳌﺒﺤـﺚ ﺍﻷﺧـﲑ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﻨﺎ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻭﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﻣﻨﺎ ﰲ ﺗﺜﻤﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺿﻤﻨﺎﻩ ﻓﺼﻼ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺎ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﳒـﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺪﻕ ﺳﻴﺎﺣﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﺍﺯ ﺛﻼﺙ ﳒﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻗﻲ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺎﺑﺔ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻟﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻫﻮ ﳏﺮﻙ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﲞﻄﻮﺓ ﳓﻮ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻬﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﻥ ﻫـﻮ ﺇﺟـﺮﺍﺀ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﳚﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﺑﺄﻥ ﻛﻞ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﰲ ﺃﺩ ﻧﻄﺎﻗﺎﺗﻪ‪ ،‬ﻗﺼﺪ ﺗﻔـﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺃﺧﻄﺎﺀ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻜﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻧﻪ ﺑﻜﻞ ﺑﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺍﺳﺘﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻮﺭﺍﺀ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻹﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺇﻗﺎﻣﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﺣﱴ ﻭﻟﻮ ﺃﻣﻜﻦ ﺗﺪﺍﺭﻙ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻘﺪ ﺍﺗﻔﻖ ﺟﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﶈﺮﻙ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻌﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺑﻜﻞ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻋﻪ ﻭ ﺃﺻﻨﺎﻓﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻬﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻀﻤﻦ ﻟﻮﺣﺪﻩ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﺼﻮﺭ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﺒﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻭﻃﻴﺪﺓ ﺑﲔ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻟﻪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﲢﺘﻠـﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻥ ﺘﻮﻯ ﻭ ﻣ ﻤﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎ ﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻌﺎﺭﻳ ﻭ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺼﻨﻴ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻌﺎﺭﻳ ﻭ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻌﺘ ﻛﻠﻤﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﻄﻠﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺋﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﳊﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﲟﺜﺎﺑـﺔ‬

‫ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻧﺎﻟﺖ ﺍﻧﺘﺒﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻔﻜﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﲔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﻠﻔـﻮﺍ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻌﺮﻳﻔﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺳﻨﺤﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﺖ ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳ‬

‫ﺴ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍ ‪،‬ﻛﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﻼﻙ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪١‬ﺇﻣﺎ ﻋﻦ‬

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‫ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺑﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺴﺘﻌﻤﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻣﻼﻙ ﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ‪.‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﻻﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮﻓﺮﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺘﻠﺨﺺ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻠﻜﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺘﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺒﻠﻐﻪ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ‪.‬‬‫ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻨﺔ‪.‬‬‫ﻭﳒﺪﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﻒ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺘﻞ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﰲ ﺃﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟـﻚ ﺣﺴـﺐ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺳﻴﻮﻟﺘﻬﺎ ‪.‬ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺳﻠﻊ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ :‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺗﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘـﺔ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺰﻭﻥ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ٢ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻬﻮ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺃﻭ ﺇﺑﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻷﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺴ‬

‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ ‪،‬ﻛﻞ ﺗﻀﺤﻴﺔ ﻣﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﺸﺮﻁ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﺠﺴﺪ ﰲ ﺗـﺪﻓﻖ‬

‫ﻣﺎﱄ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﻚ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻫﺪﻑ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﺎﻟﻴـﺔ ﺗﻔـﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺔ ﻭﳑﺘﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ ٣‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻛﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺃﻭ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻣﺎﻝ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻧﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻋﻠﻲ ﺻﺤﺮﺍﻭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻈﺎﻫﺮ ﺍﳉﺒﺎﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺛﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺾ ﺍﳉﺒﺎﺋﻲ" ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮﻳﺔ "‪ ،‬ﺭﺳـﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴـﺘﲑ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻬـﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻠـﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‪١ ٢ ،‬‬ ‫‪ ، ١‬ﺹ ‪٢٢‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﺻﻘﺮ ﺃﲪﺪ ﺻﻘﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﻏﺮﻳﺐ ﻟﻠﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ ٣‬ﻋﻠﻲ ﺻﺤﺮﺍﻭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٥‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

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‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﰎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﻼﺻﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﳒﺪ ﰲ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺟﺎﻧـﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻔﺎ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻫﻮ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﺌﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﳚﺎ ﺻﺎﺩﺭ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻷﻓـﺮﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻣﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﻣﺎﻝ ﺩﺍﺋﻢ ﻳﺆﻣﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺁﺟﻠﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺘﻪ ﺍﻷﺳﺘﺎﺫ ﻬﺑﻠﻮﻝ ‪ :‬ﻳﺮﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺘﻪ ﺗﺴﻴﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻭﺗﻄـﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻘـﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻮ ﺟﺰﺀ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺍﻛﻢ ﻭﺗﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﻛﻤﻲ ﻭﻧﻮﻋﻲ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴـﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻣـﺎ ﺍﻟﻔـﺎﺋﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻴﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻴﲏ ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ‬

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‫ﺴ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻧﻔﻘﺔ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﺧﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳـﻞ ﺃﻭ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﲑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻘﺼﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﲤﻮﻳﻼ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺎ ﺿﺨﻤﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺻﻮﻝ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺳـﻨﺪﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﻮﺍﺑﺖ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺴﺪﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .١‬ﺳﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻣﺪﺍﺧﻠﻬﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺇﻣﺎ ﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺃﻭ ﻹﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .٢‬ﺍﻟﺜﻮﺍﺑ ﺍ ﺴﺪ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺍﶈﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺷﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﳒﺎﺯ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻀﻢ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﺚ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻗﺎﺋﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﻛﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ ﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻭﳋﻠﻖ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﻣﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻧﺮﻯ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻔﺎ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪:‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺗﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﻟﻸﻣﻮﺍﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻣﻮﺣﺪ ﳌﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﺮﻓﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻣﻲ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺳﻴﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻏﺪﺍ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ‪٢‬ﻧﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﻛﻼ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ) ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺭﺻﻴﺪ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻣﺎﻝ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ( ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳜﺼﺺ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻫﺘﻼﻙ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﺻﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﰲ ﺣﺠـﻢ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺻﻴﺪ ‪. 3‬‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻦ ﺭﻏﻢ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺫﺍﻬﺗﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻧﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﱂ ﺗﺄﺧـﺬ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﰲ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻛﻤﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺧـﺮﻯ ﻛﺎﻻﺩﺧـﺎﺭ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ ﺣﺴﻦ ﻬﺑﻠﻮﻝ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺇﺷﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﳉﻬﻮﻱ ) ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ( ‪ ،‬ﺃﻃﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﺩﻛﺘﻮﺭﺍﻩ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ‪ ، ١ ٤ ،‬ﺹ ‪١‬‬ ‫‪،١‬ﺹ ‪٣‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﺇﻳﺮﻳﻨﺎﻡ ﺃﺳﺎﺩ ﺗﺸﺎﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻜﻴ ﻳﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺜﺔ "ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻴ ﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻼﺳﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ "ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﻴﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺑﲑﻭﺕ ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ ٣‬ﺻﻘﺮ ﺃﲪﺪ ﺻﻘﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢٢‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

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‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﺍﻛﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﻜﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺗﺴﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﳜﻠﻂ ﺑﻴﻨﻪ ﻭﺑﲔ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺮﺟﻊ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻭ ﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﻤﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺃﻳﺔ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻳﺎﺕ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﻦ ﺿﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻫﻞ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺺ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻮﻱ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ؟‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ؟ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳉﺰﺋﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﺴـﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﺎﺿﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺿﻴﻘﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ ؟‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﲡﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻭﻣﻘﻨﻊ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻭﳍﺬﺍ ﻧﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻏﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻌـﺎﺭﻳﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﺃﻋﻄﻴﺖ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻟﺔ ﻣﺒﺪﺋﻴﺎ ﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻏﲑ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻧﻮﺟﺰ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﻛﺨﻼﺻﺔ ﳌﺎ ﺳـﺒﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﻌﺮﻳ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺴ ﺍﳌﻌ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭ ﺴ ﺍﳌﻌ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪:‬‬

‫ﳚﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻌﲎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﰲ ﺍﳌﻌﲎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻷﻭﻝ ﻫﻮ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋـﻴﲏ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺣﱴ ﻳﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﲎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻓﻬﻮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳ ﺍﻟ ﻴ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺳﻊ ﻟ ﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻀﻴﻖ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺴﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﲎ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺃﻱ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺼﺎﻧﻊ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺨﺰﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻛﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻔﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺳﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺘﻬﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺴﲑﻭﺭﺓ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻟﺘﻮﺳﻌﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻳﺘﻼﺀﻡ ﻭﺗﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﲔ‬ ‫ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ ‪ :‬ﺩﺍﻓﻴﺪ ﺭﻳﻜﺎﺭﺩﻭ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺛﺮﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻠﺒﺲ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﻟﻮﺍﺯﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﻳﺬﻫﺐ ﺟﻮﻥ ﺳﺘﻴﻮﺍﺭﺕ ﻣﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻬﻴـﺊ ﻟﻺﻧﺘـﺎﺝ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻗﺎﻣـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﻭﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﻭﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻌﺎﻡ ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺮﻭﺑﺮﺗﺴﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻫﻮ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻖ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻌﺮﻓﻪ ﺟﻮﻥ ﻣﻴﻨﺎﺭﺩ ﻛﻴ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺸﺘﺮﻳﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻵﺧﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺟﻪ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﲡﻬﻴﺰﺍﺗﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳒﺪ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺷﻴﺌﺎ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺎ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﺜﲏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﻭﲣـﺰﻳﻦ ﺳـﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻬﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻫـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻘﺘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﲢﺮﻳﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ ﺃﻱ ﲢﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ ﻣﺎﺩﻳﺎ ﻓﻘﻂ‪.‬‬

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‫ ﻌﺮﻳ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻠ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﳉ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠ ‪:‬‬‫ﺇﻥ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﳉﺰﺋﻲ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻭﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻜﻴ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺸـﲑ ﺇﱃ ﺳـﻠﻮﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻱ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺭﺃﻳﻨﺎ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻔﻪ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺳﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﳒﺪﻩ ﻳﺼـﺮﺡ ﰲ ﻣﺆﻟﻔـﻪ‬ ‫"ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ "‪ :‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﺇﻻ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻀﻴﻒ ﻛﻴ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺸﺘﺮﻳﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺁﺧـﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺟﻬﺔ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻱ ﺃﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳉﺰﺋـﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﲣـﺎﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳉﺰﺋﻲ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﳉﺰﺋﻲ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻱ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻌﺘﱪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺇﻻ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻷﻥ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﲟﻌﲎ ﺁﺧـﺮ ﺗـﺎﺑﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣـﺘﻐﲑﺓ ﺍﺳـﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﻀﻞ ﰲ ﺇﺑﺮﺍﺯ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻴﺰﺓ ﻟﻜﻴ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻧﺮﺟﺤﻪ ﻓﻬﻮ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺑﻴﲑ ﻣﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﲏ ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﲏ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺗﺄﺟﻴﻞ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻛﻴﺪﺓ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﳏﺘﻤﻠﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺑﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﱪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻫﻮ ﻣـﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﻧﻌﲏ ﲟﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺎ ﳜﻠﻖ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﻮﻕ ﻣﺪﺓ ﺣﻴﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻮﻳﻦ ‪ ،‬ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻋﺎﻳﺔ ﻭﺷﺮﺍﺀ ﺭﺧﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ‪...‬ﺍ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻔﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺼﺮ‪ ١‬ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻧﻔﻘﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴـﺪ ﺃﺭﺑـﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟ ﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻫ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﲔ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﲔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻔﺎﺿﻠﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﺪﻣﻪ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤـﺎ‬

‫ﻳﻘﻮﻣﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﺭﻣﺰﻧﺎ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺏ ) ‪. ( I‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺏ )‪(i‬‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪I = I (i) :‬‬

‫‪Kamel Hamdi , Analyse des projets et leur financement , iprimerie es-salem , 2000 , p 5‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

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‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻗﺼﺔ ﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﺍ ﻔﺾ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻲ ﻣﻦ ) ‪ (i0‬ﺇﱃ ) ‪ ( i 1‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺣﺠـﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻣﻦ ) ‪ ( I0‬ﺇﱃ ) ‪ ، ( I 1‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺘﺴﺎﻭﻯ ﻣﻊ ) ‪ ( i1‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﺑـﺎﻟﻌﻜﺲ‬ ‫ﳑﺎ ﻳﺒﲔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﲟﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻟﻸﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﲑ ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﳐﺰﻭﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻭﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺸﻲﺀ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻻ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬ ‫ﻗﺒﻮﻟﻪ ﺇﻻ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻻ ﺗﻔﺴـﺮ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺑﻴﻨﺖ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻩ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻫﺎﻡ ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﻣﺴـﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟـﻮﻃﲏ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻐﲑﺍﺗﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﲔ ﻭﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻓـﺈﺫﺍ ﻛـﺎﻧﻮﺍ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻌـﻮﻥ ﺑﺘﻔـﺎﺅﻝ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺑﺘﺤﺴﻦ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺣﻬﻢ ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻳﻮﻓﺮ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺇﺿـﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﺘﺪﻓﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺗﺪﻋﻢ ﺗﻔﺎﺅﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﲔ ﻭﺛﻘﺘﻬﻢ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﶈﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﳍﺎ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻛﻠﻤـﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﲟﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﺍﳌﻔﺴﺮ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳍﺬﺍ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫)‪I = I ( i, y‬‬

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‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻔﺎﺅﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﲔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻲ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﻜﻔﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ‪،‬ﻷﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜـﻮﻥ ﻫﻨـﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻃﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻃﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺘﺠﻴﺒﻮﺍ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻃﻠﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺪﻝ ﻋﻞ ﺃﻥ ﳊﺠﻢ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺨﺰﻭﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﳍﺬﺍ ﻻﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺧـﺬ ﺑﻌـﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﳐﺰﻭﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫) ‪I = I (i, y, k‬‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﻬﺪﻑ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﳐﺰﻭﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻳﻬﺪﻑ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺇﺯﺍﻟﺔ ﻧﻘﺺ ﳐﺰﻭﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻼ ﺩﺍﻋﻲ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﳐﺰﻭﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻳﻠﱯ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻨﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﳐﺰﻭﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ )‪ ( i‬ﻟﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻜﺴﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﳘﺎﻝ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺗﺴﻮﻳﺔ ﳐﺰﻭﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺨـﺰﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﲟﺘﻐﲑ ﻓﻘﻂ ) ‪ ( y‬ﻭﳐﺰﻭﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺡ )‪. ( k‬‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻣﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‬ ‫)‪I = I (y , k‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻟﻺﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺟﺪﻳـﺪ‬

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‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﺼﺎﺣﺐ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺪﺭﻙ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﻪ ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺄ ﺑﻪ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﲬـﺲ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻗﺎﺩﻣﺔ ﻣﺜﻼ) ﺣﱴ ﻭﻟﻮ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ( ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻗﺎﻣـﺔ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻳﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻪ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﻻﺧﺘﺮﺍﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲡﻬﻴﺰﺍﺗـﻪ ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻃﺒﻌﺎ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺸﺠﻌﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﳒﺎﺡ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺘﻪ ﻭﻣﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ‪ ،‬ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﺼـﻮﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺑﺎﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻌﻪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﻜﲑ ﰲ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻞ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺁﺧﺮ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺳﻨﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﺇﱃ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﻳﺔ ﺍ ﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﻄﺮ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺇﱃ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻭﻥ ﻳﻘﺒﻠﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺑﲔ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺳﻴﺪﻓﻌﻪ ﻟﻮ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺽ ﻣﺒﻠ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻜﻴ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺗﻌﲏ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺁﻟﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﺷﺮﺍﺀ ﺁﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﻳﻨﻔﻖ ﻣﺒﻠﻐﺎ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺎ ﺟﺎﺭﻳﺎ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌـﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺋﺪﺍ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ‪.‬ﺇﺫﻥ ﻓﺎﻟﻜﻔﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻫﻲ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ) ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ( ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺳـﻌﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ ) ﺷﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ( ‪،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺻﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻯ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻓـﺈﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻳﻘﺒﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪، 1‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﻳﺘﻮﻗـﻒ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺻﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻪ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻷﺻﻞ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻭﺻﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻷﺻﻞ ﺣﱴ ﻳﺪﺭ ﺩﺧﻼ‪.‬‬‫ﻭﺃﻱ ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻳﻨﺠﻢ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺗﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﺑﺎ ﻔﺎﺽ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺻﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻷﺭﺻﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺑﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻷﺻﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺈﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺭﺻﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺃﲪﺪ ﺣﺎﻓﻆ ﺍﳉﻌﻮﻳﲏ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ ، ١ ٤ ،‬ﺹ ‪٤‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺴ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳍﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻟﺘﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﲢﺴـﲔ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬

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‫ﻟﻴﺴﺎﻋﺪﻩ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺗﺜﺒﻴﺖ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺗﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺮﻭﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ ﳍﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﳏﺎﻓﻈﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﺪﻫﻮﺭ ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻹﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺗﻐﻴﲑﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻻﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺮﺍﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺿﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺑﻨﻴﺎﻥ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻐﲑ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺔ‪.1‬‬‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﺼﺎﺣﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻪ‪ ،‬ﺇﻣﺎ ﺑﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﳌﻨﺸﺄﺗﻪ ﺣﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﺍﻟﺼـﻨﻊ ﻭﺁﻟﻴـﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻻ‬ ‫ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻳﺪﻭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺑﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲡﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﻨﻊ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺧﺘﺮﺍﻋـﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺜـﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ ﻟﺘﺴﺎﻋﺪﻩ ﰲ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺗﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻮﺀ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻗﺘﻨﺎﺀ ﲡﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺘﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﻴﺰﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﻵﱄ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﻣﻬﻤﺎ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﲨﻴـﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴـﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﻈﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻭﺍﺿﺤﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺷﺮﺍﺀ ﺃﻭ ﳐﺰﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺔ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻛﻠﻪ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺧﻔﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪،‬ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺧﻔـﺾ ﺍﻟﻴـﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺩﺍﻣﺖ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻟﻮﺣﺪﻫﺎ ﻭﺑﺎﺳﺘﻄﺎﻋﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻠﻬﺎ‪.‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﻳـﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺿﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻜﻨﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻨﺪ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻋـﻦ ﺗﻜﻠﻔـﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺗﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻳﻊ ﺗﻔﺎﺿﻠﻲ)ﺭﺑﺢ ﺇﺿﺎﰲ ( ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺭﻳﻊ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻫﻮ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻧﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺍ ﺩﻳﺎﺩ ﺍ ﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﺯﺩﻳﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺑﺎﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺣﺘﻤﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﺣﱴ ﺗﻠﱯ ﻛـﻞ ﺯﻳـﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ‪.‬‬

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‫‪.‬ﺍﻟﺮﻳﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ‪ :‬ﻛﻞ ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺟﻬﺪ ﺇﺿﺎﰲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻳﺴـﻤﺢ ﺑﺈﺭﺿـﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ‪.‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﻃﻠﺐ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﻣﻊ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﲡﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﻏـﲑ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻻ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺑﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻃﺎﻗﺎﻬﺗﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﺩﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻌﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺭﻳﻊ ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺍﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .‬ﺍﻳﺪ ﺍ ﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘ ﻬﻴ ﺍﺕ ﺍﻟ ﻣﺔ ‪ :‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﳝﻜﻨﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻐﲑ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﺻﻠﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻫﻮ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺫﻭ ﺑﻨﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ ‪ 2‬ﻻ ﻳﺴﺘﺠﻴﺐ ﺑﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺴـﺒﺐ ﺿـﺨﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣـﺪﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻫﻀﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺣﻮﺍﺟﺰ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﺼﻌﺐ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺘـﻪ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺑﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺮﺩﻳﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺩﺧﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﻧﻮﺭ ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﺑﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺮﺩﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ﺹ ‪-‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

‫ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺗﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺣﱴ ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﺿﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪.‬ﻣﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺭﻉ ‪ :‬ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﻣﻌﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺑـﻞ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﲡﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﻬﺑﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻗﺘﻨﺎﺀ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺟﺪﻳـﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ ﻛﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻗﺼﺪ ﲤﻜﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺭﻏﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﺘﻮﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﻲ ﻋﻦ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻊ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺭﻏﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺼﻨﻴ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺃﻋﻄﻴﺖ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﲰﺤﺖ ﻟﻨـﺎ‬

‫ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﺻﻨﺎﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ‪،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺃﳒﺰ ﻷﺟﻠﻪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻜـﺎﻥ ﻫﻨـﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ) ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ‪،‬ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﲡﺎﺭﻳﺔ( ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺣﺴـﺐ ﺃﻫـﺪﺍﻑ ﺇﻧﺸـﺎﺀ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻧﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺧ ﻝ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺘﻬﺎ‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﻣﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺘـﻬﺎ‬

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‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺍﳌﻠﻤﻮﺳﺔ ‪،‬ﻛﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻠﻤﻮﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺒﻮﺏ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ ﻛﺎﻵ ‪:‬‬ ‫* ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﺩﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺾ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﶈﻘﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺸـﺮﻛﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻔﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺧﻠﻖ ﻓﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻓﺎﺋﻀﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻮﻇﻔﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻃﺎﳌﺎ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﰲ ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﻣﺎﺳﺔ ﳍﺎ ﰲ ﺗﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻖ ﲢﺼﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﰲ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﺪﺍﺳﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻣﺎﳍﺎ ﺍﳌﻮﻇﻒ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿـﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺴﲑ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻵﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳜﻠﻖ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻣﻠﻤﻮﺳـﺔ ﻭﺟﺪﻳـﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﺎ ﻧﺴﻤﻴﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺍﶈﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﻭﺷﻬﺮﺓ ﺍﶈـﻞ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿـﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﻭﺗﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻠﻌﺐ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻓﻌﺎﻻ ﰲ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻭﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺧ ﻝ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻓﻬﺎ‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﲟﺪﻯ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺘﻬﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﻮﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﻬﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻭﻣﺼﲑﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻻ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳊﺼﺮ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻳﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴ ﺔ ‪ :‬ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﲢﺪﻳﺚ ﻭﻋﺼﺮﻧﺔ ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻴـﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠـﺔ‬‫ﻭﺗﻌﻮﻳﻀﻬﺎ ﺑﺂﻻﺕ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻹﺑﻘﺎ ﻋﻠ ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌ ﺳﺴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺻﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‬‫ ﺴ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴ ﺔ ‪ :‬ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺮﺍﻋﻲ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻥ ﻧﺴﻴﺎﻥ ﲢﺴﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻳﺘﻀـﻤﻦ‬‫ﺗﺴﻮﻳﻘﻬﺎ ﻭﺭﻭﺍﺟﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ ﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﳌ ﺳﺴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺗﻐﺰﻭ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﻭﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺗﺪﻋﻢ‬‫ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘ ﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻜﺜﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﳊﻔﺎ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻘـﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴـﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻭﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻖ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺟﺒﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ :‬ﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺪﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﺷﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺳ ﺘﺮﺍ ﻴ ﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﻠﻖ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺃﻛﺜـﺮ ﻣﻼﺀﻣـﺔ‬‫ﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺑﺎﲣﺎﺫ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺩﻓﺎﻋﻴﺔ• ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﳊﻔﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺍﻛﺘﺴـﺎﻬﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺸـﻬﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻭﺻﻠﺖ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴ ﺔ ‪ :‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻣﻄﺎﻋﻢ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺭﺑﺢ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺟﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﺎﻝ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻘـﻞ ﺇﱃ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻴﻨﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻐﲑ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺷﻬﺎﺭ ﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻮﺳﻴﻌﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻗﺪﳝﺔ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﰲ ﻓﺮﻭﻋﻬﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺧ ﻝ ﺃﳘﻴﺘﻬﺎ‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻬﻤﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺩﺭﺟـﺔ ﺍﳋﻄـﺮ‬

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‫ﻭﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﻜﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﺑﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻭﲢﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻬـﻮﻝ ﺃﻭ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﺿﺮ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺵ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻣﺾ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﺪﻭﺭ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻳ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ :‬ﻫﻲ ﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﻟ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬‫ﺑﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺇﱃ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ‪ -‬ﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ :‬ﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ‪:‬‬‫ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻛﺎﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺒﺎﱐ‪.‬‬‫ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻹﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺐ‪.‬‬‫ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺭﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻝ‪.‬‬‫ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ‪.‬‬‫ ‪ -‬ﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﻟﺘﺸ ﻴﻞ ‪ :‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻭﺿﻌﻪ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺻﺎﳊﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﳎﻤﻮﻋـﺔ ﺟﺪﻳـﺪﺓ ﻣـﻦ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﻃﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻺﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫• ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﳊﻔﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﺪﻫﻮﺭ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺑﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﻭ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳉﻤﺮﻛﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

‫ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳ ﺔ ‪ :‬ﻫﻲ ﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﻟ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﲢﺴـﺐ‬‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺧﺼﻢ ﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻛﺎﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﺳـﻮﻡ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻄـﺮﺡ ﳎﻤـﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﺪﺍ ﺧﻴﻠﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﻨﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﻧﻘﺪﻱ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﻟـﺬﻱ ﻳﻄـﺮﺡ ﻣﻨـﻪ ﺍﻟﻀـﺮﺍﺋﺐ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻐﲑ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻌﺪﻩ ﻧﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﻧﻘﺪﻱ ﺻﺎﰲ‪ .‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻋﻨﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ +‬ﻣﺪﺍ ﺧﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺒﻠ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻃـﺮﺡ ﻛـﻞ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﺤﻘﺎﺕ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺪ ﻴﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ :‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﳌﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﻄﺎﺀ ﺟﻴﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺫﻭ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‬‫ﻫﻲ ﺍﳌﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﺒﺔ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﱂ ﻳﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﺯﻝ ﻋﻨﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺣﺎﻟﺘﺎﻥ ‪:‬‬‫ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻬﻧﺎﺋﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﺯﻝ ﻋﻦ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺭﲝﺎ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻬﻧﺎﺋﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﲏ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺑﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﺯﻝ ﻋﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﲟﺒﻠ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ‬‫ﻣﺒﻠ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﺯﻝ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﲟﺒﻠ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻋﺠﺰﺍ ﺗﺘﺤﻤﻠﻪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﳝﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻨﺪﺋﺬ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳋﻄﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬‫ﺗﻔﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﳋﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺸﺮﻉ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳕﻮ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﳚﺪ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﻋـﺪﺓ‬

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‫ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺠﺪ ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻬﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋـﺪﺩﺍ ﺁﺧـﺮ ﻳﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺃﺣﺴﻦ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻟﻜﺴﺐ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻣﻀﻤﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧـﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﳚﺪ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺳﺒﻘﻪ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻭﻥ ﺃﺟﺎﻧﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻗﺎﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻭﻥ ﳏﻠﻴﻮﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﳒﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﻧﻀﻌﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺴ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺪ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻢ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬

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‫‪ .‬ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺎﺑ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﻤﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺻﻤﻤﺖ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺑﺪﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﺘـﺪﻋﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ‪1‬ﻭﺗﻀﻤﻦ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﻧﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﻬﺎ ﻭﻻ ﺗﻮﻗﻔﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻮ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻻ ﺗﻨﻮﻱ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﻲ ﻋﻨﻪ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺏ ﺳﻨﺔ‪.‬ﺗﺘﻜـﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﻤﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺒﺎﱐ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻧﻴـﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﻒ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺳﻴﻮﻟﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﻄﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺭﺍﺩ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﻬﺎ ﺑﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﻮﻉ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺣﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻭﻗﺘﺎ ﻃﻮﻳﻼ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻠﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺳﺎﺋﻠﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .‬ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺨ ﻭﻥ ‪ :‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌـﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋـﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﻊ ﻭﺍﳉﺎﻫﺰﺓ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﻊ ‪،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﻬﻧﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﺤﻔﻆ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺨﺰﻥ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻏﲑ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﺒﺎﻻﺣﺘﻔﺎ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺨﺰﻭﻥ ﻭﻣﻊ ﻣﺮﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻀﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺨـﺰﻭﻥ ﳐﺰﻭﻧـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺴﺤﺐ ﻣﻨﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﺑﺈﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺨﺰﻭﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﺪ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻫـﺬﺍ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺨﺰﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻌﻮﺩ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﻀﺖ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﳍﺬﺍ ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻌﻴﺶ ﻓﺘـﺮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺑﺼـﻮﺭﺓ ﺳـﻬﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﺪ ﺃﺧﺬﺕ ﺣﺬﺭﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﻜﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﻘﻮﻡ ﻋﻨﺪﺋﺬ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺤﺐ ﻣﻨﻪ ﻟﺘﺴـﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺜﻐﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮﺓ ﳛﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺃﺭﺻﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺰﻭﻥ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺨﺰﻭﻥ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﺟﻴﻤﺲ ﺟﻮﺭﺗﲏ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ ) ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺹ ( ‪،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺮﻳﺦ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ‪،‬ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ ‪،‬‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺴ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‬

‫ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻭﻥ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﶈﻴﻂ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘـﺪﻣﻮﺍ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬

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‫ﻭﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﻢ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓـﺬ ﻟﻌـﺮﺽ ﻣﻨﺘﺠـﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﻣﻘﺎﺑـﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩ‪.‬ﻭﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﺿﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﺍ ﳏﻠﻴﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﺍ ﺃﺟﻨﺒﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﳒﺪ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻢ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ .١‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﻠ ‪ :‬ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍ ﳏﻠﻴﺎ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻳﻨﺘﻤﻮﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻓﻴـﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺘﻤﺎﺀ ﻋﺮﻓﻴﺎ ﻭﻳﻘﻄﻨﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻪ‪ .‬ﻫﺆﻻﺀ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻭﻥ ﻳﺮﻭﻥ ﰲ ﺗﻜﺪﻳﺲ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻻ ﺗﺄ ﲟﻨﻔﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻳﻘﺮﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﰲ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻮﻃﻨﻬﻢ ﻭﻳﻀﻴﻔﻮﻥ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‬ ‫ﻳﺴﺎﳘﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺧﻠﻖ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻳﺪ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺔ‪.‬ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻧـﺘﻜﻠﻢ ﻓﻘـﻂ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻬﻲ ﻭﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﳏﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻹﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﲤﻜـﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﲟﺸﺮﻭﻋﻪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺧﲑ ﺑﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻟﻪ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺎ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺿﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﺮﺓ ﺍﻵﺗﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻭﺿﻌﺖ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺍﻻﺩﺧﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻵﺗﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﻠﺼﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡـﺔ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳒﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺷﺮﺍﻛﺔ ﺗﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﳏﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴـﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻓﺘﺴـﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨ ‪ :‬ﻧﺴﻤﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍ ﺃﺟﻨﺒﻴﺎ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﰲ ﺑﻠﺪ ﻣﻌﲔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻏﲑ ﻗﺎﻃﻦ ﻭﻏﲑ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﻴﻢ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻣﻄﻠﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﻏﻢ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﻌﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺑﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﻻ ﻳﺆﺧﺬ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺑـﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺗﻌﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻟﻮﺣﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻣﻲ ﻣﺜﻠﻪ ﻣﺜـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻆ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻛﺜﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳍﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺳﻜﺎﻥ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﻭﻣﻴﺎﺩﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻖ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻜﻨﻨﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﻭ ﺍﳊﺪﺍﺛﺔ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺰ ﺍﳌﻴـﺰﺍﱐ ﻟـﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﺃﺩﻯ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﳌﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﳌﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺴ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻢ ﳒﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﲔ ‪:‬‬

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‫‪ .‬ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻴ ‪ :‬ﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﻠﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺒﺎﱐ ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﳍﺎ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺳﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺑﻄﻴﺌﺔ ﺟﺪﺍ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺃﺭﺍﺩ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﲟﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺳﻌﻰ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﺃﻋﺘﱪ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻴﲏ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻗﺪﻡ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻻ ﺳﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﻟﻴﺘﺤﺼـﻞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﳑﺘﻠﻜﺎﺕ ﺗﺄ ﻟﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺑﺄﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﻠﻜﺎﺕ‪.‬ﻳﺸﺒﻪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨـﻮﻉ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ﻟﻜﻦ ﳜﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻨﻪ ﰲ ﻛﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ﲤﺖ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺨـﺰﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻭﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ﻓﻘﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﻟﻦ ﺗﺘﻐﲑ ﺑـﲔ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﻧﺘـﺎﺝ ﻭﺃﺧـﺮﻯ‬ ‫)ﲢﺴﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻼﻛﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻛﻞ ﺳﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﺮﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﻮﺽ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻬﻧﺎﻳﺔ ﻋﻤﺮﻫﺎ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺑﺄﺻﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺑﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺫﺍ (‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﲏ ﻓﺴﻨﻘﺎﺭﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .‬ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﺎﱄ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻫﻮ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻟﻪ ﺍﻟـﱵ‬ ‫ﻫﻮ ﺑﻐﲑ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﰲ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﻓﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻳﺄ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺮﺑﺢ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﺃﺳـﻬﻢ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻓﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺸـﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺃﺳـﻬﻢ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﺼﻴﻞ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ ﻋﻨـﺪ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻴﺔ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻻ ﲢﺼﻠﺖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬـﺎ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻗﺮﻭﺽ ﳌﻦ ﻫﻮ ﲝﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻹﻗﺎﻣـﺔ ﻣﺸـﺎﺭﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﲡﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺑﲔ ﺳﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺳﺒﻊ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺗﺘﺤﺼـﻞ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻣﺎﳍﺎ ﺍﳌﻮﻇﻒ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺎ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺯﺍﺋﺪﺓ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺣﻴـﺚ ﺗﻌﺘـﱪ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﻛﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﺴﻠﻴﻒ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﳌﻦ ﳛﺘﺎﺟﻪ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻪ‬

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‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﻄﻌﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ‬

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‫ﻣﺎ ﺗﻌﻠﻖ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺘﺼﻨﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻋﻪ ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺪﻋﻮ ﺇﱃ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻫـﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻌـﺎﺭﻳﻒ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻬﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺰﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﻤﻮﺽ ﻭﺗﺴﻠﻂ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻜﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﻈﻰ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻫﻮ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻣﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﺧﺘﻠﻔﺖ ﺍﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﺫ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺼﻮﺭ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻷﻱ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﻛﻬﺪﻑ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﺍﻟـﺪﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳـﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻤـﻮ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻟﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻫﻮ ﳏﻮﺭ ﺍﳊﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻳﲔ ﺍﳉﺰﺋﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳉﺰﺋـﻲ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﲢﺼﻴﻞ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﺘﱪﺓ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺤﻴﺔ ﺑﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﳌﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﺗـﺐ‬ ‫ﻋﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﳎﻬﻮﺩ ﻭﻣﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻬﻮ ﺍﶈﻘﻖ ﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺴﻄﺮﺓ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻌﻴﺸﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻞ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﲣﺼﻴﺺ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺪﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺭﺷﻴﺪ ﻭﻋﻘﻼﱐ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺴﺒﻖ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺮﺷﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻭﲡﻌﻠﻪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺻﻮﺍﺑﺎ ﻭﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻳ ﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺗﻌﺪ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ‬

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‫ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﺒﻠﻮﺭ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﺮﺍﻩ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺎ ﺑﺎﻹﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺭﻓﻀﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻪ ﻭﺗﺸﻜﻴﻠﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻜﻤﻦ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺗﺰﻭﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﻜﻨﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ‪.‬‬‫ﺗﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ‪.‬‬‫ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻭﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺘﺤﻤﻠﻪ ﻣـﻦ‬‫ﺃﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻥ ﺘﻮﻯ ﻭﻣ ﻤﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﻋﻠ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺘﻌﻠ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻭﺧﺼـﺎﺋﺺ‬

‫ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺪﻋﻮ ﺇﱃ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻨﺴﻰ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﺎﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻠﻬﺎ‪ -‬ﺳﻨﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻛﻠﻪ‪ -‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪.‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﻋﻨﺎ ﺮﻩ‬

‫ﻌﺪﺩﺕ ﺍﻵﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻌﲎ ﻭﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺔ‬

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‫ﻟﻪ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭﺍﻷﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﺨﺬﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻛﻠﻬﺎ ﲡﻤﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﲢﺪﺩ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮﻩ ﻮﺍﻧﺒﻪ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ‪:‬‬‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﳍﺎﻣﺔ ﺃﻥ ﳓﺪﺩ ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺣﺎﺳﻢ ﻣﻌﲎ ﺍﺻﻄﻼﺡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﻤﻰ "ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ" ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﲏ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﰲ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﲣﻀﻊ ﺍﻵﻥ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻼﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻳﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻠﻤﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﻌﲏ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲤﻴﻴﺰﻫﺎ ﻓﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﲡﺎﺭﻳﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻦ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻛﻠﻤﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﻘﺼﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻪ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻠﻪ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﳑﻴﺰﺍ ﺣﱴ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻩ ﺃﻭ ﺭﻓﻀﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻠﻪ‪.٢‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻮ ﺍﺋﺘﻼﻑ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻛﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻳﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺈﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﲢﻮﻳﻞ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺃﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻣﺼﺎﱀ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.٣‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻮ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﺓ) ﺭﺅﻭﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺪ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﺔ ( ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺃﻭ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ‪.٤‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺑﺪﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻧﻴﺪﻭ(‪ ،‬ﳒﺪﻩ ﻣﺆﻛﺪﺍ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ ﺧﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﻬﺪﻑ ﺇﱃ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻮﺳﻴﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭ‪ /‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﰲ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﻣﺎ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻧﻪ ﻭﰲ ﺃﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺟﺰﺋﻲ ﻭﻛﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﺯﻫﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﺳﻴﺪ ﺍﳍﻮﺍﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ ، ١ ٢ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٢‬‬ ‫‪ ٣‬ﺃﻭﻳﺲ ﻋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻧﻂ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﺲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ ، ١ ٢ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢٢‬‬ ‫‪٤‬‬ ‫‪Kamel Hamdi , Analyse des projets et leur financement , imprimerie Es-salem , 2000 , p 9‬‬ ‫‪ ، ١‬ﺹ ﺹ ‪٣١ - ٢٥‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

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‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﲤﻴﻴﺰﻫﺎ ﻓﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﲡﺎﺭﻳﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺄﺧـﺬ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﻭﺗﻠﺰﻡ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻪ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺷﻜﺎﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭ ﺃﻭﻻ ﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻟﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺰﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺗـﺮﺗﺒﻂ‬ ‫ﺑﻜﻠﻤﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﻴﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﲤﻴﻴﺰﻩ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻓﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﲡﺎﺭﻳﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳓﻦ ﻧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﻛﻠﻤﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﻌﲏ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺣﺎ ﺑﺈﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻛﻴﺎﻥ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺫﻭ ﺷﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﺸـﺄﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘﺪﱘ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺪﻣـﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺳـﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻹﺷﺒﺎﻉ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺆﻛﺪ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻣﻨﺎ ﻻﺻﻄﻼﺡ ﺃﻭ ﻛﻠﻤﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺍ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﺎ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻗﺎﺋﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍ ﲢﻮﻟﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻓﺮﻉ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﺧﻂ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺣﺎﱄ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺤﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪.٢‬‬ ‫ﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺴ ﺍ ﺟﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻗﺼﲑ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﻧﺒﻴﻞ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺴ ﻡ ﺎ ﺮ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ‬

‫ﺇ‬

‫ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﻋ‬

‫ﻝ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ‬

‫ﺲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮ‬

‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﻭﳝﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﳏﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﻴﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳓﺮﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺸﺪﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻨﺤﺼﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺪﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﲏ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻱ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺣﲔ ﳜﺮﺝ ﻋﻦ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﳌﻌﻘﻮﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺗﻔﺴﺮ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺇﻟﻐﺎﺀ ﺗﻠﻚ‬

‫‪ ١‬ﺑﻌﺪﺍﺵ ﻣﺴﻴﻜﺔ ‪ ،‬ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻃﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﺩﻛﺘﻮﺭﺍﻩ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳋﺮﻭﺑﺔ ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ‪ ، ٢ ١ ،‬ﺹ ‪١‬‬ ‫‪ ، ١‬ﺹ ‪١٥‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﻧﺒﻴﻞ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﻡ ﺷﺎﻛﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪،‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳـﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴـﺚ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻳﻨﺤﺼﺮ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺃﻛﺪﻧﺎ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﲡﺎﻩ ﺇﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻣﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎ ﺑﺬﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺪﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺣﻼﻝ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ ﺳﻮﻑ ﺗﻨﺤﺼﺮ‬ ‫ﰲ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﻹﺣﻼﻝ ﻭﺫﻟـﻚ ﰲ ﺍﲡـﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﻹﺣﻼﻝ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻣﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺍﻷﺧﲑ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻋﻄﺎﺀ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ‪:‬ﻛﻞ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻴﺎﻥ ﺣﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺑﺬﺍﺗﻪ ﳝﻠﻜﻪ ﻭﻳﺪﻳﺮﻩ ﺃﻭ ﻳﺪﻳﺮﻩ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻨﻈﻢ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻟﻴﻒ ﻭﺍﳌﺰﺝ ﺑﲔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﻳﻮﺟﻬﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺃﻭ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻃﺮﺣﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺎ ﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ‪:‬‬‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻫﻲ‪: ١‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪-‬ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻳﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﻫﻮ ﻳﻠﻮﺡ ﻛﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺳﺮﻋﺎﻥ ﻣـﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﻣﺘﻤﻴﺰﺓ ﻓﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪-‬ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻢ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺄﻟﻴﻒ ﻭﺍﳌﺰﺝ ﺑﲔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪-‬ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺧﺼﺎﺋﺼﻪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺼﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻﺑﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻃﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺗﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪-‬ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻛﻬﺪﻑ ﻣﺴﻴﻄﺮ ﻭﻻ ﻣﺎﻧﻊ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻫﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ‪-‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻴﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻩ ‪ -‬ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﺤﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻘﺎﺱ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﲟﺪﻯ ﻗﺪﺭﺗﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ )ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ( ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻗﺪ ﻭﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻭﺭﻓﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻭ ﺍﻻﻃﻤﺌﻨﺎﻥ ﺇﱃ ﻛﻞ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻚ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﳛﻤﻞ ﰲ ﻃﻴﺎﺗﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﳍﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳚﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﺎﻧﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

‫‪،٢‬ﺹ ‪١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺧﺒﲑ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﻳﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﺸﻒ ﻋﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﻟﻔـﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻔﻴﻠﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﺍﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟ‬

‫ﺪﻋﻮ ﺇ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫ﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﺮﺟﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﻣﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﶈﻴﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﺮﺟـﻊ‬

‫ﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻨﻤﻮﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻧﺎﺑﻌﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻧﻔﺴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺎ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻗـﺪ ﻻ‬ ‫ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﺪ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎ ﻓﻌﺎﻻ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﳛﺘﻞ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﻌﲏ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﻠﺪ ﻳﻌﺎﱐ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺠﺰ ﰲ ﻏﺬﺍﺋﻪ ﺑﺘﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﻣـﻮﺍﺭﺩﻩ ﺍﶈـﺪﻭﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﺪﻳﻮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺘﺮﻓﻴﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈﲑﺍﻬﺗﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳒﺎﺡ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﳒﺎﺣﻪ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ .‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﳌﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻴﻂ ﺑﻪ)‪.(١‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﱐ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﻌﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ﺇﻫﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎ ﺑﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﳏﻀﺔ ﻛﺄﻥ ﲤﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺝ ﻧﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﻜﻚ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺇﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺗﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺿﻤﺎﻧﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺴﻴﻖ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗـﺮﺑﻂ ﻬﺑـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﺪﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺩﺍﻓﻌﺎ ﻹﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ ﺗﺮﺳﻴﺦ ﺃﺑﻌﺎﺩ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﺳﻖ ‪،‬ﻭﻕ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻋﺚ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ( ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﻧﻘﺼﺪ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻓﻊ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻮ ﺍﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴـﺎ ﻣﻌﻴﻨـﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﺍﳉﻬﺪ ﺍﳌﺒﺬﻭﻟﲔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻮﻥ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻄﺒﻘﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻛﺜﲑﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺮﻓﺎﺕ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄﺓ )ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ(‪.٢‬‬

‫)‪ (١‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﻮﺡ‪ ،‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﻴﻊ ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺻﺮ ﺹ ‪ .١٣‬ﻋﻦ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺮ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪organisation management and supervision of public entreprise in devloping contries, united nation-1974.‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﻬﺑﻴﺔ ﻫﺎﺷﻢ ﻋﺰﻳﺰﻱ ﺃﲪﺪ ‪،‬ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﲑ ‪ ،‬ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ ، ١ ٥ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٢‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

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‫ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺗﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺪﻋﻮ ﺇﱃ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺘﻪ ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻣﺮﺍﻋﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺟﺪﻭﺍﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﻻ ﻳﻌﺪ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﺪﻓﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺪ ﺫﺍﺗﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﻳﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻭﺳـﻴﻠﺔ ﺗﺴـﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﲢﻘﻴـﻖ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﺘﺮﺍﺑﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﻳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺄﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﱀ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﺫﺑﻴﺘﻪ ﻭﺟﺪﻭﺍﻩ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﻭﳕﻮ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻭﻇﺎﺋﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄـﻴﻂ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻌﺬﺭ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﻔﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻓﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺍﳉﻴﺪ ﳌﺰﻳﺞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﳉﻴﺪ ﻣﻊ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﻭﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﳍﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻟـﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺹ ﻭﻗﻴﻮﺩ ﻭﻬﺗﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٥‬ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﺑﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳋﺼـﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴـﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻭﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺛﻘﺎﰲ ﻭﻏﲑﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲟﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺓ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻷﻱ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺃﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟـﻮﻃﲏ ﺃﻭ‬‫ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻂ ﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ ﺟـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻭﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻹﻃـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟ ﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺃﻫ ﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸ ﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘ ﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺘ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺩ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ ﺍﶈﻮﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺩ ﻧﻘﻄـﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﻄـﻼﻕ ﰲ ﲢﻠﻴـﻞ‬

‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫـﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻠـﻖ ﲣﺘﻠـﻒ ﺃﻫـﺪﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻨﺬ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻧﺸﲑ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻈﻢ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺬﺍﺗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤﻲ ﺣﻴﺪﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

‫‪،٢‬ﺹ ‪٣‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪-1‬ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎ ﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺸﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻫﻮ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺭﺑﺢ ﳑﻜـﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻘﺼﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗـﺪ‬ ‫ﳜﻄﻂ ﻟﻠﺮﺑﺢ ﻭﺗﻌﻈﻴﻤﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﲑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﻋﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﲣﻄﻂ ﻟﻠﺮﺑﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﺪﻑ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺭﺑﺢ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﺍﳌﺴﻴﻄﺮ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻓﺎ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻲ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻔﺎ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺳﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻭﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻹﻳـﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻔـﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﻤﻌﺔ ﺣﺴﻨﺔ ﻭﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻗﺪﺭ ﳑﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﻛﺴﺐ ﺳـﻮﻕ ﺧـﺎﺭﺟﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻠﻖ ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻟﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻭﺗﻜﺴﺐ ﺭﺿﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﻼﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﺍﳌﺴﻴﻄﺮ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻭﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻫﻨـﺎﻙ ﺃﻫـﺪﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺭﺻﺪﻫﺎ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺄ ﰲ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺘﻬﺎ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻄﻠﺐ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻥ ﳛﻘﻖ ﺍﻟـﺮﺑﺢ‬ ‫ﺣﱴ ﻳﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﰲ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﳓﻮ ﺍﳋﻮﺻﺼﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿـﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻋـﺔ ﺃﻫـﺪﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﻐﻠـﺐ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺟـﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﺗﻘﻴـﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻛﻼ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺘﻌﻠ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺳﻨﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﺍﺳـﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ‬

‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿـﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻌﺘ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻧﺎﻟﺖ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﺎ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﻈـﺮﻱ‬

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‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠـﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ )ﺟـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ( ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺭﺷﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻳﺔ )ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻳﺔ( ﺃﻭ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﺩ ﺫﻱ ﺑﺪﺀ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﻣﺘﺒﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻊ ﰲ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ .‬ﻓﺒﻌﺾ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ…ﺍ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﲨﻴﻌﺎ ﰲ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﻭﺗﺸﻌﺐ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻓﺈﻬﻧﺎ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺟﻬﻮﺩ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﺘﻀﺎﻓﺮ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﱪﺍﺀ ﺗﺴﻮﻳﻖ ﻭﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﲔ ﻭﻓﻨﻴﲔ ﻭﺧﱪﺍﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ … ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺷﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﺻﻄﻼﺡ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﲟﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻳﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﺪﺍﻫﺎ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻔﻬـﻮﻡ ﻭﺍﺳـﻊ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻨﺬ ﲝﺜﻬﺎ ﻛﻔﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺣـﱴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﻘﺒﻮﻝ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﱪﺭﺓ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ ﻭﺭﻓﺾ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﻻ ﺗﻜـﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﱪﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻀﻴﻖ ﻭﺍﻟـﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﺼﺮ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻻﺣﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ)‪.(١‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺰ ﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻐﺾ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳍـﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﻨـﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﺘﻠـﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺭﻓﺾ ﺃﻭ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛـﺘﻢ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻣﺘﺨـﺬﻱ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎ ﺑﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺒﻬﺎ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈـﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻛﻜﻞ‪.‬‬

‫)‪ (١‬ﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻞ ﺃﻧﻈﺮ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﱘ ﺻﺎﺩﻕ ﺑﺮﻛﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﲪﺪ ﺭﻣﻀﺎﻥ ﻧﻌﻤﺔ ﺍ ‪ ،‬ﳏﺎﺿﺮﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

‫‪،١‬ﺹ‪٥‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

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‫ﻭﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻭﲟﺎ ﳛﻘﻖ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻓﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﻲ ﳉـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ "ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﲟﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﻬﺗﺎ)ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ‪ /‬ﻭﺗﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ( ﺍﻟﱵ‬ ‫ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺘﻮﻓﲑ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻛﺎﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﳌﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺎﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﻩ ﲟـﺎ ﻳـﺘﻼﺀﻡ ﻣـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺮﻏﺐ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺔ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﲟﻔﻬﻮﻣﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺳﻊ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻔﻖ ﻣﻊ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻔﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺳﻮﻑ ﺗﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﻤـﺮﺍﺩﻑ ﳌﻔﻬـﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲤﻴﻴﺰﻫﺎ ﻓﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ ﻋـﻦ ﺑـﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﲤﺜﻞ ﻛﻞ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﺗﻴﺎﺭﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ)‪.(١‬‬ ‫* ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻫ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴ ‪ :‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻧﻮﻋﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄـﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟـﺘﻔﻜﲑ ﺍﳌﺴـﺒﻖ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﰲ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻹﻗـﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺘـﻪ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﻬﻲ ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻲ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﺿﺮ ﻭﺗﺼﻮﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻫﺪﻑ ﳏﺪﺩ‪.٢‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺍ ﺎﺟﺔ ﺇ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺘﻬﺎ‬

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‫ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺍﺷـﺘﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳊﺎﺟـﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺯﺩﻳﺎﺩ ﺃﳘﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﱪ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺭﺻﺪ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﺳـﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌـﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳑﻜﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻭﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻭﺃﻳﻀـﺎ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﺑﻚ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﺍﻟﻜﻒﺀ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺼﻒ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﻨﺎ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺜﺒﺖ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻣﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﲣﺼﻴﺺ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺜﺒﺖ ﺟﺪﻭﺍﻩ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﲢﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺪ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣـﺪﻯ ﻗـﺪﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﻤﻞ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ )ﺑﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ( ﻭﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺳﺘﺆﺛﺮ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﱪ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﺳـﻴﺔ‬ ‫)‪ (١‬ﻳﺘﻔﻖ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﺃﻧﻈﺮ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺼﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻃﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﺩﻛﺘﻮﺭﺍﻩ ﻣﻨﺸﻮﺭﺓ ‪،‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ ، ٢‬ﺹ ‪٣٢‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﻣﲔ ﺯﻭﻳﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﻟﺪﻧﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺑﻨﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ )ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ( ﻭﺑﻌﺾ ﺑﻨﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟـﺔ‬ ‫)ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ( ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٤‬ﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﲢﻤﻞ ﺍﳋﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﻭﺿﻴﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻭﺗﺴﺘﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢـﺪﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ )ﺭﲝﻴﺘﻪ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺗـﱪﺯ‬ ‫ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻤﻨﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺿﺨﻤﺔ ﻭﺟﺰﺀ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻐﺮﻗﺎ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‬ ‫ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻓﺸﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﻌﺮﺽ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺑﻪ ﳋﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﺿﺨﻤﺔ ﻭﻳﻜﻠﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺿﺎﺋﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﺔ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻻ ﻏﲎ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٥‬ﺇﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﲡﻌﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﺄﻗﻞ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﳑﻜﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‬ ‫ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻚ ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺰﻭﺩ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﱵ‬ ‫ﲤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍ ﺑﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻣﻨﺢ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺇﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻭﺗﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﰲ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﺟﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﺣﺪﻯ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌـﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳉﺪﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻼﺀ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺗﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻔﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﻣﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﻣﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻌـﺪ ﺗﻘـﺪﱘ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ‬‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺑﺄﻗﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‬‫ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﰲ ﲣﻔﻴﺾ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭﺗﺮﺷﻴﺪﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﲑ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ‬‫ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﳑﻜﻦ )ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺭﺑﺢ(‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﺇﻥ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ‬ ‫ﻗﺮﻭﺿﻬﺎ ﻭﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺍﻬﺗﺎ ﻹﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﲣﺼﺺ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺎﻻﺕ ﻄﺒﻴ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﻳﻌﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭﺍ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳌﺎ ﳛﺘﺎﺟﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛـﺪ ﺍﳌﺼـﺎﺣﺒﺔ ﻷﻱ ﻣﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪ‪.١‬ﻭﲡﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑـﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳـﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺄﻟﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺘﺠﺮﻯ ﺳﺘﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻖ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﻮﻥ ﻭﺍﳋﱪﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻵﺧﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‪ ،‬ﺁﺧﺬﺓ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌـﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﺘﻮﺳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎ ﻤﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻭﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮﺳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻌﻤﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﺼـﻨﻊ ﻟﻠﻤﻼﺑـﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺎﻫﺰﺓ ﻹﺣﺪﻯ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺰﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺴﻴﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻗﺴﻢ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﻂ ﺇﻧﺘـﺎﺝ ﺟﺪﻳـﺪ ﻹﺣـﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺇﺿﺎﰲ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺈﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻓﺮﻉ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﰲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻓﺮﻉ ﻷﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻲ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﺎﺋﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺷـﺮﺍﺀ ﺁﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻢ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟ‬

‫ﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘ ﺪﻳﺪ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻭﺗﺘﻢ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺈﺣﻼﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ ﺁﻟﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﳏﻞ ﺁﻟﺔ ﻗﺪﳝﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻧﺘـﻬﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟ ﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﳝﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﳌﺴﺄﻟﺔ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﻟﻼﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘـﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳚﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﺍﻫﺎ ﺑﻌﻨﺎﻳﺔ ﻭﺩﻗﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﺗﱪﺯ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺮﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﻠـﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﰲ ﻣﺮﺣﻠـﺔ ﺍﻟﺜـﻮﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺜﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺣﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ ﺍﳉﺪﻳـﺪ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﺳﻴﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬

‫‪ ، ٢‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٣٢‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ ‪،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﺒﻠﻮﺭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﰲ ﺍﺯﺩﻳﺎﺩ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﺑﻨﻤﻂ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﺤﺪﺛﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻊ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﻣﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻣـﺎ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴـﺎ ﻛﺜﻴﻔـﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﻞ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﻛﺜﻴﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻷﺣﻮﺍﻝ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻻﺧﺘﻴـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒـﺪﻳﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻗﺪﱘ ﺑﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟ ﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻌ ﻗﺔ ﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻤﻖ ﻭﺍﳌﺪﻗﻖ ﳌﻐﺰﻯ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﻘﺘﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ‬

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‫ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﻘﺘﻨﻊ ﲤﺎﻣﺎ ﺑﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﻮﻱ ﻭﻭﺛﻴﻖ ﺑـﲔ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤـﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﻘﻖ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻭﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﲣﺼﻴﺺ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﲟﺎ ﻳﺘﻔﻖ ﻣـﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺗﻜﻤﻦ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻬﺎ ﺑﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﳍﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻳﻜﻤﻦ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﰒ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺭﺷﻴﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳉﺰﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻳـﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴـﺚ‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﺨﺬﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲟﺎ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﺑﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ‪.١‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﺿﻴﺎﻉ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﺎﱐ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺇﻥ ﱂ ﻳﻜﻦ ﲨﻴﻌﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﻴﺲ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺑـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺑﺘﻌﺎﺩ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳚﻌﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺿـﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺣﺘﻤﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻷﻣﺮ ﻻ ﳛﺘﻤﻞ ﲡﻤﻴﺪ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛـﺪ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺒﻮﻝ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﳑﻠﻮﻛﺔ ﻣﻠﻜﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﺎﺟﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﺿﻴﺎﻉ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

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‫ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﻣﱪﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻨﺎﻕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀـﺤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ )ﻗﺪ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ ﻧﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ( ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻭﺃﻭﻓﺮ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻳﺔ )ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻔﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ( ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ )ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻔﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ( ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﳛﺪﺙ ﺗﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﻭﺍﺿﺢ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﶈـﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧـﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﳌﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺘﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﻜﻤﻦ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﻧﺲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺘﲔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺑﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﲡﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﳉﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺟﻴﺪﺍ ﻭﻧﺎﺟﺤﺎ ‪،‬ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ… ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ )ﺃ( ﻭﺃﺧﺮﻯ )ﺏ( ﻭﺃﺛﺒﺘﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ )ﺃ( ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻦ )ﺏ(‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﺃﻥ )ﺏ( ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻦ )ﺃ( ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬـﺔ ﻧﻈـﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﺼﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﺨﺬﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﱘ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ… ﺍ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﻧﻄﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ )ﺏ( ﳑﺎ ﻳﺰﻳـﺪ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﲟﺎ ﳚﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ )ﺏ( ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫)ﺃ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻴﺘﻔﻖ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﺸﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﺏ ﻋﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﲣـﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺒﺤـﺚ ﺳـﻨﺤﺎﻭﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻌـﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻘﺼﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﺒﻘﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﺗﻘﻴـﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﺄﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺪ‬

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‫ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺑﺄﺱ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻌﺮﺝ ﺃﻭﻻ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻧﺮﺍﻫـﺎ‬

‫ﺗﺴﺒﻖ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻬﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﲎ ﻭﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﻮﺟﺰ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻱ ﺑﻘﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺁﻓﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻹﺑﺪﺍﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻘـﺪﺭﺓ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﺑﺪﺍﻉ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ‪،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻧﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺭﺅﻳﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻋﻘﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﳍﺎ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺔ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﻭﻧﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴـﺘﻌﲔ ﺍﳌﺨﻄـﻂ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻬﺑﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍ ﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻭﻳﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳌﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺳـﻮﺍﺀ ﰲ ﳎـﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠـﺎﺕ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻟﻐﺬﺍﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺎﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺴﻜﻦ ﺃﻭ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺸﺒﻌﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﺷـﺒﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺗﺮﲨﺘﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺳـﻠﻊ ﻭﺧـﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﻄﻼﻉ ﺭﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺑـﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺇﺷـﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﳊﺎﺟـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﺪﻳﻬﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺸﺒﻌﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺇﺷﺒﺎﻋﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺍﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤﻲ ﺣﻴﺪﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻛﻤﻴﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺧﺼﺎﺋﺼﻬﺎ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﺷﺘﺮﺍﻃﺎﺕ ﺗﻮﺭﻳﺪﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﳏﻠﻴﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﳍﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﲤﺜﻞ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺸﲑ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻲ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻛﺜﲑﺍ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﺪﺃﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﺣﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺟ ‪ -‬ﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﻠ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺧﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﲞﺼﺎﺋﺺ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺣﺎﻓﺰﺍ ﻗﻮﻳﺎ ﻟﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻹﺷﺒﺎﻉ ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴـﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﳝﺜﻞ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺟﻴﺪﺓ ﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳـﺪ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺻﻮﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺑﻌـﺾ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ‪،‬ﻛﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻐﺰﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﻴﺞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﳌﻨﻴﻮﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﱪﺯ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻋـﺎﺩﺓ ﻣـﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﻜﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﻣﻐﺬﻳﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻏﺎﺯ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜـﻞ ﻣﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻧﺎﺑﻴـﺐ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲪﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﺪﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ ﻭﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ ﻭﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﻵﻣـﺎﻥ …‪ .‬ﻭﻏﲑﻫـﺎ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻼﺣﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺩ‪-‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭ ﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎ ﻤﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺗﻔﻴﺪ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﰲ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﻣﻌﲔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻼ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬ﻭﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺟﺎﺫﺑﻴﺔ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻗﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻌﻠﻘـﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺼـﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﱪﺯ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫـﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺼـﺪﺭ ﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴـﺪ ﺍﻷﻓﻜـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺗﺐ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺑﺈﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﲢﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺪﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺗﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﻬﺑـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻩ ‪ -‬ﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ ﺍ ﺪﻳﺜﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﻣﻌﲔ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﻼﺣﻖ ﰲ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻳﺘﻴﺢ ﻓﺮﺻﺎ ﻗﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺻـﻞ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣـﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴـﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﻬﺗﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺤﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻜـﺒﲑ ﰲ ﳎـﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻵﻻﺕ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﺑﻌـﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺴـﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻏﲑﻫـﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻤﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﳌ ﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺣﺪﺙ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺯﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﻴﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﲏ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﺠﻤﻟـﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﺪ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻜﻤﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄـﺔ ﺑﺘﻠـﻚ ﺍﺠﻤﻟـﺎﻻﺕ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﺑﻌﺎﺩ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺭﺑﻄﻬﺎ ﻭﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛـﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳـﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣـﺔ ﳍـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﺑﻚ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﻭﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﶈﻮﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﻜـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻻﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﻑ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺸﺄﺓ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﰲ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﻲ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺮﺻﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺔ ﻭﲢﻠﻴـﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻭﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﻲ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﺑﻚ ﺍﻷﻣﺎﻣﻲ ﻭﺍﳋﻠﻔﻲ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬ ‫ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﲰﻨـﺖ ﻭﺣﺪﻳـﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺴـﻠﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺧﺸﺎﺏ ﻭﺍﻷﺛﺎﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺟﺎﺝ …‪.‬ﺍ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺬﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺭﻗﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺒﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺳﺘﻴﻚ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻥ‪-‬ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻥ‪-١-‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻬﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻥ‪-٢-‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺼﺪﺭ ﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻥ‪-٣-‬ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺁﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﻬﺘﻤﲔ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻭﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﻭﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴـﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﺮﺟـﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻥ‪-٤-‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﻭﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻴﺤﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻥ‪ -٥-‬ﺭﺻﺪ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﲡﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻥ‪- -‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻥ‪- -‬ﺭﺻﺪ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻥ‪- -‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻗﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺼﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﳍﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﺼﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻥ‪- -‬ﺍﻻﺷﺘﺮﺍﻙ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺪﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻥ‪-١ -‬ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﺮﺽ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻠﻊ ﻭﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺗﺄ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻏﺮﺑﻠﺔ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﺗﺸﺨﻴﺺ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻐـﺮﺽ ﺣـﺬﻑ ﺃﻓﻜـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻮﻙ ﰲ ﳒﺎﺣﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻻﻛﺘﻔﺎﺀ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻬﻧﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟـﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﺒﺪﺋﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﺍﻫﺎ ﺑﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻔﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﱪﺯ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﻪ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﺗﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﻣﺰﻳﺪﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﻬﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﲢﺴﺒﺎ ﻻﺳﺘﻨﻔﺎﺫ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﰲ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻏﺮﺑﻠﺔ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺧﻄﻮﺗﲔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺘﲔ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻠﺔ )ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ( ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻓﻜﺎﺭ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺑﻠﺔ )ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ( ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ‪-‬ﻣﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺪ ﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻓﻜـﺎﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻔﻖ ﻣﻊ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﻣﻊ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﺓ ؟‬‫ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ؟‬‫ ﻫﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻗﻴﻮﺩ ﺗﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﻒ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ؟‬‫ ﻫﻞ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻴﺔ ﺗﻀﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻮﺙ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺯﺩﺣﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑﻫﺎ ؟‬‫ ﻫﻞ ﻳﺘﻔﻖ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻊ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻟﺔ ؟‬‫ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺎﺋﻤـﺔ ﻣـﻦ ﺃﻓﻜـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺧﻀﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﻣﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎ ﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺃﻓﻀﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﲟﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻣﺒﻜﺮﺓ‬‫ﻭﻓﻖ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺻﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ‪ - -‬ﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴ ﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻒ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬‫ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﻴﺰﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤﻲ ﺣﻴﺪﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

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‫ ‪- -‬ﺍ ﺎﺟﺔ ﺍ ﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﲢﺪﻳـﺪ ﻣـﺪﻯ‬‫ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪- -‬ﻣﻘﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎ ‪ :‬ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪- -‬ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺬ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻳ ﻊ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺬ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﲞﺼـﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﳌﻨـﺘﺞ ﺃﻭ‬‫ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺬ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪- -‬ﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ‪ :‬ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟـﻼﺯﻡ ﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳـﻞ ﻓﻜـﺮﺓ‬‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﺮﺹ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻭﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻋﺮﺟﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻌﻮﺩ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻳﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ، ECONOMIC RATIONALITY‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺴﻢ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪ ،١‬ﺃﻱ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﰲ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺃﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳑﻜﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﳍﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﻳﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﺃﻛـﱪ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﳑﻜﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﺧﺬﺍ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﺋﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻀﺤﻰ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ ‪ :‬ﻫﻮ ﺫﻟ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻋﻠ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻄ ﺃ‬

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‫ﻋﺎ ﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺑ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻓ ﺜﺮ ﻭﺍﳌﺒ ﻋﻠ‬

‫ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ‬

‫ﺴﺒ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺮ ﺑﻌﺪﻩ ﻣﺮﺍ ﻞ ﻨﺘﻬ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻣﻨ ﻬ‬

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‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺣﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﺷـﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﻘﻮﻣﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﰲ ﺣﺪ ﺫﺍﻬﺗﺎ ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺗﻪ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﻣﺜﻠﺚ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜـﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻋﺪﺗﻪ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﻭﻟﻪ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺗـﻪ‬ ‫‪ ، Décision inputs‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﻬﺗﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻪ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳـﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻛﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻟﻪ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﺴﺘﻔﻴﻀﺔ ﻣﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺲ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺃﻱ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻳﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪،‬‬

‫‪،٢‬ﺹ ‪٣‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

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‫‪ -١‬ﺃﻧﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﻜﺮﺭ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻞ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻛﻠﻬﺎ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺇﻻ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﺒﺎﻋﺪﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻲ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﲤﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﺔ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻞ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻠﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﳛﻴﻂ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﻋﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻭﺗﻐﲑ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻮﺩ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻠﻬﺎ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺳﺲ ﻭﻣﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٥‬ﳝﺘﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻣﺮﺍ ﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻻ ﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺻﻨﻊ ﻭﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴـﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﻌﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ‪ ،‬ﲢﺪﺩ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﻟـﺬﻫﺎﺏ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻡ ﻻ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫‪ :‬ﻣﺮﺍ ﻞ ﺍ ﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍ ﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻻ ﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻓﺮ ﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﻓﻜﺮ‬

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‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺒﺪ ﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺌﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫ﻠﻴ ﺕ ﺍ ﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺍ ﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫ﺑﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪ :‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍ ﻤﻴﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻻ ﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻭﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫* ﺍﳌﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭ‬

‫ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﻠﻮﺡ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻌﲔ ﰲ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻁ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻜـﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻗﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺭﻏﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﻭﻣﻘﺘﺮﺣﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﻲ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺼﺮﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﲔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ ﰲ ﻇـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﳌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﲣﺺ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻪ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﺎﺋﻢ ﻓﻘﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻔﺰ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳍﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺗﻜﺎﻣﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻢ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜـﻦ ﺳـﺘﻌﻈﻢ ﻣﻜﺎﺳـﺒﻪ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻢ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻘﻔﺰ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻭ ﺧﻂ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﳚﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ‪:‬‬ ‫*ﺍﳌﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﳜﻀﻊ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻔﻜﲑ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﺚ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﻠﻴـﻞ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﲡﻤﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﳛﺪﺙ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﻨـﺎﻉ ـﺪﻭﻯ ﺗﻠـﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﻜـﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﺑﻌﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺇﱃ ‪:‬‬

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‫*ﺍﳌﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻟﻴﺒﺪﺃ ﰲ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻄﻠـﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬـﺎ ﲟﺮﺣﻠـﺔ ﺟـﺲ‬

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‫ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻛﺄﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺑﺪﺃ ﻳﺸﺮﻉ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺣﻘﻞ ﺃﻟﻐﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺸﲑ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻡ ﻻ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻻ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻘﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻮﺍﻧﻊ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ‪:‬‬

‫* ﺍﳌﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻌﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺑﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ‬

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‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺗﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻓﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻻ ﻳﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼـﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺛﺒﺘـﺖ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻗﺒﻠﻪ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻻ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻴﺎ ﺑﻞ ﻭﻣﻜﻠﻔﺎ ﺍﻟﺬﻫﺎﺏ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻗﻤﻨـﺎ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻜﺬﺍ ﺭﻏﻢ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﰲ ﺍﳊﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻗـﺪ ﺗﻜﺸـﻒ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻬﻢ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺛﺒﺖ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺇﱃ ‪:‬‬

‫*ﺍﳌﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻟﻠﺤﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻄﻠـﻖ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺸﲑ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻓﻬﻲ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻭﻣﺼـﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺄﻧﻨﺎ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺔ ‪ Micro‬ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ، Macro‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺑﺄﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺗﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﲡﺮﻯ ﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺙ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﰲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﻏﲑﻫـﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺇﻋﻄﺎﺀ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣـﺔ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴـﺔ ﻟﺘـﺪﻋﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﱪ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﲢﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﺻﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠـﺔ ﻣـﺎ ﻗﺒـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﺃﻱ ﺇﱃ ‪:‬‬ ‫*ﺍﳌﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺈﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫*ﺍﳌﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻌﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻭﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﺳﻴﺲ ﻭﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﲡﺎﺭﺏ ﺑﺪﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻭﺗـﻮﻓﲑ‬

‫ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻳﻜﻔﻲ ﻟﻠﺒﺪﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻳﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﲣﻀﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻼ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻔﻴـﺬ‬ ‫ﻭﻻﺷﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﻗﺘﺎ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻣﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘـﺎﱄ ﻳﻜـﻮﻥ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﻏﻮﺏ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ "ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﲤﻬﻴﺪﻳﺔ " ﻳﺘﻢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﻠﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﺪﻋﻮ ﻟﻠﺘﻔﺎﺅﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺘﲔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﺗﺴﺘﺤﻖ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﺘﻔـﻖ ﻣـﻊ ﺍﻷﻫـﺪﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳚﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﻛﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻭﺳﻴﻄﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ١‬ﳌﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٥‬ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬‫ﻭﺑﺈﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻵﺗﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺟﺬﺍﺑﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﲨﻌﻬﺎ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺪﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﻋﻤﻖ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻛﺘﺸـﺎﻑ ﺃﻋﻤـﻖ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜـﻞ ﺍﳌﺴـﺢ ﺍﻟﺴـﻮﻗﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺴـﺘﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ…‪..‬ﺍ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺃﲪﺪ ﻣﺎﻫﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ‪ /‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ‪ /‬ﺍﳋﺼﺨﺼﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ، ٢ ٢ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢ ٥‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﲨﻌﻬﺎ ﺗﺆﻛﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﺻﺎﳊﺔ ﺃﻭ ﳍﺎ ﺍﳉﺎﺫﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﻗـﺮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﺈﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺘﻬﺎ‬

‫ﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺇﻬﻧﺎﺀ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺑﺈﻋﻄﺎﺀ ﻧﺒﺬﺓ ﳐﺘﺼﺮﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺫﻟـﻚ‬

‫ﻧﺪﺭﺝ ﻋﻨﺼﺮﺍ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻧﺘﺤﺪﺙ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻌـﲔ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﺒـﺪﺍﺋﻞ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻃﺒﻘـﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺪﺩﻫﺎ ﻭﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﺍﻋﺘﱪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻜﻢ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻼﺗﻪ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﲬﺲ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ )ﺃ( ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺪﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ‪ ، %30‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ )ﺏ( ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺪﺭ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ‪ ، %15‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ )ﺟـ( ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺪﺭ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ‪ ، %20‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ )ﺩ( ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳـﺪﺭ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ‪ ، %12‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ )ﻫـ( ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺪﺭ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ‪ ، %35‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﳜﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ )ﻫـ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺗﺐ ﺑـﺎﻗﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻫﻮ )ﺃ( ﰒ )ﺟـ( ﰒ )ﺏ( ﰒ )ﻙ(‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍ ﺑﺎﻟﺒـﺪﺀ ﰲ ﺗﻨﻔﻴـﺬ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ )ﻫـ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺆﺟﻞ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻴﺖ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺭﻏﺐ ﰲ ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺭﻓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ :‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻟـﻪ ﰲ ﻧﺸـﺎﻁ‬‫ﻣﻌﲔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻔﺎ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﳚﻌﻞ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﺓ ﺟﺪﺍ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﳜﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻓﺮﺹ ﻭﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺎﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺍﻛﺘﻤﻠﺖ ﻭﲤﺖ ﻟﻪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻳﺮﻓﻀﻪ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺪﻡ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﺿﻴﻖ ﺑﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺎﻧﻌﺔ ﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺇﺣﺪﻯ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﰲ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻌﲔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﻨﺸـﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﳝﻨﻊ ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﰎ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﳝﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﰲ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﰎ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﳝﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﰲ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﺼﺪﻳﺮﻱ ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻧﺘﺤﻜﻢ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﲟﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺄﻧﺎ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺃﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﰲ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻌﲔ ﺃﺿﺤﻲ ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺑﺒﺪﻳﻞ‬ ‫ﺁﺧﺮ ﰲ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺁﺧﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺪ ﻭﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺪ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‬‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﺎﺩ ﺗﻨﻌﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻘﺘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺴـﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﻭﺑﺴـﺎﻃﺔ‬

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‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﺪﻯ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺪﻳﻪ ﺩﺭﺍﻳﺔ ﺗﺎﻣﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﻭﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻳﻜﺎﺩ ﻻ ﳛـﺪﺙ‬ ‫ﺇﻻ ﻗﻠﻴﻼ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﻣﺼﺤﻮﺑﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ‪. Risk‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻢ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻫﻲ ﻓﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﻭﺗﻘﺘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ‪ . %100‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟـﱵ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﺠﻪ ﺗﻨﺎﺯﻟﻴﺎ ﺃﻱ ﺗﺒﺘﻌﺪ ﻋﻦ ‪ ، %100‬ﻭﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﺑﺘﻌﺪﺕ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠـﻖ ﺑﺎﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﻠﻌﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ‪ ،‬ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﺗـﻮﻓﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻢ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺗﻘﺘـﺮﺏ‬ ‫ﺑﻘﻮﺓ ﻣﻦ ‪ ، %100‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﻞ ﺃﻥ ﲢﺪﺙ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺧﱪﺓ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻗﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﰲ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻡ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻲ ﻳﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟ ﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻮ ﻔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻤ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳒﺪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬‫ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻲ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﻗﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺙ ﰲ ﻋﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺃﻭ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ ﻓﻘﻂ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺜﲑﺓ ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺙ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﻳﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻔﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ ﻣﻌﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ‪ :‬ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻮﺍﺟﻬﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻋـﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﻀـﺎﺭﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺗﻌﺮﻑ ﺑﺎﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻋﻮﺍﺋـﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻘﻮﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﰲ ﳏﻔﻈﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺑـﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﺃﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﺴﻌﺮﺓ ﻏﲑ ﺻﺤﻴﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋـﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻳﺄ ﻣﻦ ﲢﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻓﻴﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﻔﻈﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﺨـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻫﻮ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳚﺐ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻔﺎ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﶈﻔﻈﺔ ﻭﺑﺄﻳﺔ ﻧﺴﺐ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻓﻴﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﻸﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ) ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻋﻬﺎ ( ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺇﻣﺎ ﻣـﻦ ﻗﺒـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﺃﻭ ﲟﻌﻮﻧﺔ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺍﺀ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﺧﺎﻟﺪ ﻭﻫﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ‪ /‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ‪ /‬ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﲑﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ‪،‬‬

‫‪ ، ١‬ﺹ ‪٣١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺧ‬

‫ﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻘﺪﻣﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻠﺺ ﺇﱃ ﲨﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺑﻴﺎﻬﻧﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

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‫ ﺇﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﻘﻮﺩﻧﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺇﻻ ﺍﳋﻼﻳﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﳋﻄـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ ﰲ ﺃﻱ‬‫ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺗﺘﺒﻠﻮﺭ ﰲ ﺷـﻜﻞ‬‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺴﺘﻨﺪﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺭﻓﻀﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻠﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻓﺮﻭﻉ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻃﺎﻗـﺔ‬‫ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺇﺣﻼﻝ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﳏﻞ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﺁﺧﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ‬‫ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻷﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻓﻀﻠﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺗﻌﲎ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺑﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺗﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺟﺎﺫﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬‫ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻫﻲ ﲟﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺃﻭ ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺔ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺃﻭ ﻏﺎﻳﺎﺕ ﻳﺴـﻌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻌﺘ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻭﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﳋﱪﺍﺀ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼـﻮﻥ‬

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‫ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻊ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﱯ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﺎﺕ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌـﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﲤﻨﺤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﰲ ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻌﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺸـﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺗﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻗﻴﻮﺩ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﲟﻨﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺩﺍﺭﺳﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻـﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩﻩ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﻠﺬﻟﻚ ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟـﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻨﺬ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺻﺎﺭﺕ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢـﺪﺩ ﻇﻬـﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻣﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳍﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺩ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻮﺍﺟـﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﻘﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﳌﺎ ﳛﺪﺙ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﲡﺎﻫﻠﻬﺎ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻓـﺮﺹ‬ ‫ﳒﺎﺡ ﺃﻱ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻭﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺘﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻥ ﺘﻮﻯ ﻭ ﻣ ﻤﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎ ﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺑ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺨﻴﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺠﻲ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﻭ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ‬

‫ﻭ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﺿﺪ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺨﻴﺺ ﺍﳉﻴـﺪ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﳚﻌﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻧﺴﺠﺎﻡ ﻭ ﺍﻷﻟﻔﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻌﺎﻣـﻞ ﻣﻌﻬـﺎ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻌﺮﻑ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻼﺋﻢ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻭ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬

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‫ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻮﺭﺩﻳﻦ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﲔ ﻭﲨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻂ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﺟﺪﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻲ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜـﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻏﲑ ﺧﺎﺿﻌﺔ ﻟﺴﻴﻄﺮﺓ ﻭﺭﻗﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﲨﻴﻊ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺗـﻪ ﻭ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺗـﻪ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭ ﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ ﻻﺯﻣﺔ ﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺔ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻠﻊ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﻛﻼ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻫﻮ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻓﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪١‬ﻭ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺼﻬﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺑﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻔﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﻔﺮﺩ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻏـﲑﻩ ﻣـﻦ‬‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟـﱵ‬‫ﻳﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺑﺎﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻭ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻌـﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟـﻚ‬‫ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻛﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻤﻴﺰﺓ ﺗﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻭ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺣﻴـﺚ ﻬﺗـﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻳﺮﻯ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ )‪ : (٢‬ﺃﻥ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻭ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺑﻌﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺧﻠﻖ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺑﻮﺿﻊ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺗﻨﺎﺯﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻓﺮﺹ ﳒﺎﺣﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺘﲔ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫* ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ‪ :‬ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤﻲ ﺣﻴﺪﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٥٤‬‬ ‫‪R.L, pitale , project apprrisal technique , oxford and IBH publishing. C O, PUT, LTD, p 210.‬‬

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‫‪ – ١‬ﻋﺪﻡ ﺇﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺃﻳﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﺸﺄ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ – ٢‬ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻨﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ – ٣‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ – ٤‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﰲ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪﻫﺎ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻭ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﻮﻃﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ - ٥‬ﻣﺪﻯ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫– ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﺒﺪﺃ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻭ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﺘﺠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺖ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴـﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴـﺚ ﻳـﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬـﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺔ ﻭ ﺑـﲔ ﺗﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄـﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺑﲔ ﳕﻮ ﻭ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻓﺔ ﻭ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﳕﻮ ﻭ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻗﺪﺭﺗﻪ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٤‬ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺳﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺎ ﺫﻛﺮﻧﺎﻩ ﺣﱴ ﺍﻵﻥ ﻳﺆﻛﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﺍﳉﻮﻫﺮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﺗﺄﺛﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩﻩ‪ ،١‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﻗﺪﺭﺗﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﺗﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻢ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺭﻏﺒـﺎﺕ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳊﺮﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺇﺷﺒﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻛﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺻﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣـﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ ﺗﻐﲑﺍﻬﺗﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳊﺮﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺭﺑـﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺘﺒﺎﻋـﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﺪﻣﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛـﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌ ﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﺴﻴﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻳﻌﻤـﻞ ﰲ ﳎـﺎﻝ ﺻـﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻬـﺰﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﰲ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺗﺘﺼﻒ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺗﺘﺼﻒ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺪﻳﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﲑﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺈﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺳﻠﻊ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺼـﺪﻳﺮﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﳝﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲣﻀﻊ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﳏﺘﻮﻳـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﺃﻭﻳﺲ ﻋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻧﻂ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ﺹ‬

‫‪١ -١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫‪ :‬ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳋﺎ ﺔ ﻭ ﻋ ﻗﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩﻳﻦ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻼﺀ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﻧﺒﻴﻞ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺴ ﻡ ﺎ ﺮ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒ ﺫ ﺮﻩ‬

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‫ﻭ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﳏﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﺼﺪﻱ ﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﺠﻤﻴـﻊ‬ ‫ﻭ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟـﺬﻱ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺃ ﺒﺤ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻘﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﳍﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﳌﺘﺨﺬﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻭﺍﺿﻌﻲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﲡﺎﻫﻠﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ‪.‬‬‫‪ -‬ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺩﳝﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﳌﺘ ﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﲤﺘﻠﻚ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍ ﻗﻮﻳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﺘﺪﻋﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺘﺪﻋﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﻭ ﺍﻻﻧﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﻭﺍﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺴﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺎ ﺗﻨﻈﻤﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳـﻌﺎﺭ ﻭ‬ ‫ﲨﺎﺭﻙ ﻭ ﺿﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻭ ﻓﺎﺋﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﻋﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭ ﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻻ ﺷﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﻴﻘﺔ ﻹﳒﺎﺯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻷﻫﺪﺍﻓﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﺪﻋﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺇﻣﺎ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻓﺸﻞ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜـﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺗـﺆﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻛﻮﺩ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﳓﻮ ﻣﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﺮﺿـﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺗﻘﻞ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻌﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻊ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﺗﻘـﻞ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﺫﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺡ ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻻﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻣﺘ ﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﲞﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻭﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﻣﺎ ﳛﺪﺙ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻐﲑﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻨﺘﺠﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺗﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻬﺗﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﺪﻣﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫*ﺍﳋﺼﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ ﺑـﺎﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﰲ ﻣﻌـﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﱐ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻃﻦ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﰲ ﻟﻸﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠ ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎﻥ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺼﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻷﻣﺎﻛﻦ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻻ ﺷﻚ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﳛﺪﺙ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻗﻔﺰﺍﺕ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﺍﳋـﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﺪﻣﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺗﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺪ ﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺜـﻞ ﰲ ﻛـﻞ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﲔ ﺇﱃ ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﰲ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﺇﱃ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﲪﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﲔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﻔﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﲔ ‪ :‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴـﻮﻳﻖ ﻟـﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺍﳋﺮﻭﺝ ﺇﱃ ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﶈﻔﺰﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﺎﻧﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﻘﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺎﻧﺐ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻱ ﻭ ﺍﳌـﺎﱄ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻗﻴﻮﺩﺍ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﻴﻘﺔ ﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﺃﻭ ﲢﻮﻳﻠﻪ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﺟﺪﺍ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﲡﻌﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴـﲔ‬‫ﻻ ﳜﺎﻃﺮﻭﻥ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

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‫ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻭﻳﺞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ‬‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻭ ﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻻﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻗﻴﺪﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﲔ ﺟﺪﺩ ﺇﱃ ﳎـﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺭﻗﺔ ) ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ (‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﻨﺘـﺎﺋﺞ‬‫ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺮﺍﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﲏ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﻴﺰﺓ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺭﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻄﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻖ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﻖ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺴﲔ ﺟﺪﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺭﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻞ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻭﺗـﺪﻉ ﺍﻵﺧـﺮﻳﻦ‬‫ﻳﻌﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺭﺯﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻴﻮﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺗﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳋﻄﺮ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜـﻮﻥ ﺍﻟـﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﺇﱄ ﳎـﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺧﻄﺮﺍ ﻭ ﻣﻜﻠﻔﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻳﻌﺪ ﻋﻨﺼـﺮﺍ ﺣﻴﻮﻳـﺎ ﻣـﻦ ﻋﻨﺎﺻـﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﲞﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴـﺔ ﲢـﺪﺩ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ ﺑﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﲝﻴﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺇﱄ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺪﻣـﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻓﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﲪﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﲞﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﻗﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺑﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﳓﻮ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺰﺍﲪﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻟﻸﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﲔ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻧﺼﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ‪.‬‬‫ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ‪.‬‬‫ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﳕﻄﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺒﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ‪.‬‬‫ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺎ‪.‬‬‫ﻭ ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﳛﺪﺙ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻐﲑﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﺇﻣﺎ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻭ ﺗﺪﻋﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﰒ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻔﺮﺱ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻭ ﲢﺪﺩ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻮﻛﻬﺎ ﻭﺃﺩﺍﺋﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﳌﺘ ﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍ ﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺘﻬﺎ ﻷﻋﻤﺎﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﳌﺎ ﺗﺸﺮﻋﻪ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺸـﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺗـﻨﻈﻢ ﺃﻣـﻮﺭ ﺍﻷﺳـﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻷﻣﻦ ﻭ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻭ ﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻣﺎﻛﻦ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺷﻚ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺼﺪﺭ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺗﻘﻴﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺪﻣﺎﺝ ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﻴـﻞ ﻓـﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻜـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑـﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳـﺎ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﲟﺎ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺒﻌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﳍﺎ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﻠـﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﰲ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻻﲢـﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﳍﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻬﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺗﺐ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻀﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺗﺰﺍﻳـﺪ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﺎﻗﺺ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،١‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻮﻛﻬﺎ ﻭﺃﺩﺍﺋﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺑﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻮﺫ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻳﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﻢ ﻭ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ‪.‬‬‫ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﻭ ﻗﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻂ‪.‬‬‫ﻭ ﻳ ﺪ ﺫﻟ‬

‫ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺮ ﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺪﻳﺮﻳﻦ‬

‫ﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺮ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧ ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﻟﺴﻠﻮ ﻭ ﺃﺩﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﺳ ﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﲑ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﺍﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﻧﺘﻤﺎ ﺍﺕ ﺍ ﺑﻴﺔ ﻋﻠ ﺍ ﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻴ‬

‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻗﻴ ﺔ ﻭ‬

‫ﻞ ﺍﻟﻮ‬

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‫ﺍﻹ ﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺬﻟ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻨﺘ ﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺨ ﻳﻦ ﻭ ﻋﻠ ﻓﻠﺴﻔﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭ ﻭ‬

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‫ﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑ ﻋﻠ ﺳﻠﻮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺃﺩﺍ ﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﳌﺘ ﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺮ ﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﻭ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲞﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻛﻼ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻣـﺎ ﳛـﺪﺙ‬ ‫ﻬﺑﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻜﻠﻔـﺔ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﲟﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩ ‪ :‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻧﻔﻮﺫ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﻭ ﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻀـﻐﻂ ﺗﺘـﻮﺯﻉ ﺑـﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺭﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺎﺭﺱ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺭﺩ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻨﺠﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺗﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﻣـﺪﺍﺩ ﰲ ﺣـﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺏ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩ ﳓﻮ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻻﺑﺘﻌﺎﺩ ﻋﻦ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺑﺘﻌﺎﺩ ﻋﻤـﻞ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻣﺪﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﻦ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺏ ﻣﻦ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﻟﻺﻣﺪﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻏـﲑ ﺫﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻊ ﻧﺪﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻌﺬﺭ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭ ﻋﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﻣﺼـﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺳﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﰲ ﻗﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‪ ،‬ﻛﺄﻥ ﲤﺘﻠﻚ ﻣﺼﺎﻧﻊ ﺍﻷﺣﺬﻳﺔ ﶈﻼﺕ ﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﺣﺬﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻣﺼﺎﻧﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻹﲰﻨﺖ ﻭ ﺣﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﻴﺢ ﺑﺈﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻭ ﺍﻣﺘﻼﻙ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸـﺘﺮﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺳﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﰒ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﰲ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻛﺄﻥ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻗﻴﻮﺩ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻬﺗﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﳐـﺎﻃﺮ ﲤﻨـﻊ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤﻲ ﺣﻴﺪﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﺣﺬﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻣﺼﺎﻧﻊ ﻟﻠﺠﻠﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﲤﻨﻊ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻴﻴﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻣﺘﻼﻙ ﻣﺼﺎﻧﻊ ﺍﻹﲰﻨـﺖ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺣﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﻴﺢ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺗﺘﺼﻒ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻐـﻴﲑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ ﺿﻐﻮﻃﺎ ﺃﻛﱪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﲝﺎﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺑﻴﺌـﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﺕ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻓﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮﺓ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻣﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﳚﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘـﺔ ﺑـﺎﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﺎ ﳛﺪﺙ ﻬﺑﻤﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻐـﲑﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺪﻋﻴﻢ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺹ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺣﱴ ﺗﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻭ ﺍﳋﻴـﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳـﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻜﻴﻒ ﻣﻊ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

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‫‪ -‬ﺍﳌﺘ ﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺪ ﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳉ ﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺪﳝﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﺮﺻﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻗﻴﻮﺩﺍ ﻣﺆﺛﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﰲ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻭ ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﻔﺮﺯ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻓـﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟـﺬﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﳝﺜﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺳـﻮﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﺮﻳﻚ ﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺣﱴ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀـﻼ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺰﻳﻦ ﻭ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭ ﻏﲑﻫﺎ … ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﲞﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﻳﺔ ﲞﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﲢﺪﺙ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻭ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫـﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺋﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻭﺍﳋﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﻴﻒ ﻣﻊ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫ﲑ ﺍﳌﺘ ﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠ ﻓﺮ‬

‫ﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﻨﺤﺼﺮ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻬﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺑﻴﺌـﺔ‬

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‫ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺇﳕﺎ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﲢﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻨـﺎﻃﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﺎﻳﺪﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻒ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺳـﻠﻮﻙ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤـﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺮﻏﻮﺏ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﺠﻪ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،١‬ﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺣﺎﻟـﺔ‬‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺴﲔ ﺟﺪﺩ ﲟﻨﺘﺞ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻮﺩﺓ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻭ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺗﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤﻲ ﺣﻴﺪﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺹ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

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‫– ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﻌﻮﻗﺔ ﻟﺘﺼﺮﻓﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺸـﺮﻳﺔ ﻟـﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫– ﺍﳌﺸﻜ ﺕ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺣﻠﻮﻻ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻻ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻗﻴﻮﺩ ﺃﻭ ﻬﺗﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﻘﺺ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺎﻟﺔ ﺭﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺸﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫– ﺍﻷﻋﺮﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺗﻨﺒﺊ ﺑﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻗﻴﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺭﲟﺎ ﺣـﺪﻭﺙ‬ ‫ﻬﺗﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺘﺴﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳـﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺜـﺎﻝ ﺗﻠـﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﺮﺍﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻻ ﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻈﺎﻡ ﰲ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻤﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻭ ﻗﻠﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻘﺎﺀ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻭ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﳑﺘﻠﻜﺎﻬﺗﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫– ﺍﳌﺘ ﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﻳﺪ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻋﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺆﻗﺘﺔ ﻻ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﳍﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺇﳚﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺳﻠﱯ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻳﺐ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﳍﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺇﳚﺎ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﱯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻔﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﻳﺪﺓ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻬﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘـﺪﺭ ﺣـﺪﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﲣﻄﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩ ﳝﺜﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﺳﺎ ﺑﺄﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺂﺧﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫– ﺍﻷﻋﺮﺍ ﺍﻹ ﺎﺑﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺗﻨﺒﺊ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﳏﻔﺰﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﻣﺸﺠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺭﲟﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻓﺮﺹ ﳝﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺭﲰﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺭﲰﻴﺔ ﺗﺸﲑ ﺇﱃ ﺍﲡﺎﻩ ﺇﺣﺪﻯ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌـﺾ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴـﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺴﺤﺎﺏ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﶈﻔ ﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺸ ﻌﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺮﻏﻮﺏ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻔﻀﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻓـﺮﺹ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻔﻴﺰ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘـﺪﻋﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﻭ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺗﺴـﻴﲑ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺧﺎﻡ ﻭ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﲟﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﲣﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻔـﺲ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳉﻮﺩﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫– ﺍﻟﻔﺮ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺆﻳﺪﺓ ﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﺗﺘﺠﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻹﳚﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺋﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻭﺟـﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﻃﻠﺐ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺸﺒﻊ ﻭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ (1‬ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﺮﻙ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﺎﻳﺪﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻃ‬

‫‪ :‬ﻣﻨﺎﻃ ﻭﺍ ﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﲑ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠ ﻓﺮ‬

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‫ﺍ ﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑ ﻋﻠ ﺳﻠﻮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ ﻓﺮﺹ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺍﻻﻧﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬‫ ﳏﻔﺰﺍﺕ ﻣﺸﺠﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﰲ ﺃﻧﺸـﻄﺔ ﳏـﺪﺩﺓ ﻭ ﺍﲣـﺎﺫ‬‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺳﻠﱯ‬

‫ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻇﻮﺍﻫﺮ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﺣﺠﺎﻡ ﻋﻦ ﺗﺼﺮﻓﺎﺕ‬‫ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﺑﺸﺄﻬﻧﺎ‪.‬‬‫ ﻗﻴﻮﺩ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻝ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‪.‬‬‫‪ -‬ﻬﺗﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﺗﻨﺬﺭ ﺑﺎﳋﻄﺮ ﻭ ﺗﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤ‬

‫ﻴﺪﺭ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻘﻴ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬

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‫ﻭ ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﳑﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺃﻥ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺃﺩﺍﺋﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺗﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺑﺪﺭﺟـﺔ ﻛـﺒﲑﺓ ﲟـﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺨﻴﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﲢﺴﲔ ﻭ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﺫﺍﻬﺗﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻧﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﲟﺎ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻄـﻮﻳﺮ‬ ‫)‪(١‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌ ‪ :‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﻣـﻦ‬‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻫﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﰲ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ؟‬‫ ﻫﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻗﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻭﺧﻄﻄﻬﺎ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺑﻴﺌﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ؟‬‫ ﻫﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺙ ﰲ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ؟‬‫ ﻫﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻔﺎﺟﺂﺕ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ؟‬‫ ﻫﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺑﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﰲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ؟‬‫ ﺼﺤﻴ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﻭ ﻌﻤﻴ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻮﻝ ﻧﺸﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌ ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴـﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘـﺪﻳﺮ‬‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﺗﺮﺟﻊ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺧﺎﻃﺌﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ ﻭﻓﻖ ﻣﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺧﺎﻃﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﻓﺘـﺮﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻻ ﲣﺮﺝ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻮﻬﻧﺎ ﻣﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺗﺪﻋﻴﻢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ‬ ‫)‪ (١‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤﻲ ﺣﻴﺪﺭ ‪،‬ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺹ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺗﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﻭ ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺑﻴﺌـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﻧﻈﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﻜﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺪﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭ ﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌ ‪ :‬ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌـﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻔﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻛﻤﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻧﻀﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻄﻲ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻬﺗﺘﻢ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳋﻄﻂ ؟‬‫ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﻯ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ؟‬‫ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﻯ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻟﻠﻘﻠﻖ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ ﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ؟‬‫ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﻯ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ؟‬‫ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﻇﺎﺋﻒ ﻭ ﻣﻬﺎﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬـﺔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫– ﺇ ﺎﺩ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨ ﻴﻤ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭ ﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌ ‪ :‬ﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘـﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌـﻲ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﳉﻬﻮﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩ ﻓﻌﻞ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺆﺧﺬ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻈﺎﻡ ﰲ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺔ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘـﺪﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻪ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭ ﲣﻔﻴﺾ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪.‬ﻭﰲ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌـﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﻳﻮﺟـﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻣﻦ ﳎﺮﺩ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻒ ﺩﺍﺋﻢ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻢ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻻ ﺗﻨﻘﻄﻊ ﻋﻦ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻭ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﺄﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻷﺧﲑ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﳜﺼﺺ ﳍﺎ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤـﻲ ﰲ ﺍﳍﻴﻜـﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤـﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﺗﺪﻋﻴﻢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫– ﺪﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍ ﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻳﺔ ﻟﻮ ﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳـﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ ﺍﳋﻄـﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺘﻴﻜﻴـﺔ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻳﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﻡ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﻄـﻮﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﺟـﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻗﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺗﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮﺓ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺃﻭ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ‬‫ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻬﺗﻴﺌﺔ ﻭ ﺇﺗﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺘﺨﺬﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺿﻌﻲ ﺍﳋﻄـﻂ ﻭ ﺍﻹﺳـﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ‪،‬‬‫ﻭ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺫﻟﻚ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﺗﺼﺎﻝ ﺟﻴﺪ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻔﲏ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺺ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ ﻓﺤ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍ ﻟﻠﺨﻄﺔ ‪ :‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﳌﻠﻔﺘﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻬﻤﺔ ﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌـﻲ‬‫ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺒﻪ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪﺓ ﻓﻘـﻂ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻌﺎﰿ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻛﺜﲑﺍ ﻣـﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﲡﺎﻫﻠﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﳍﺎ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺪﻋﻴﻢ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻋﺪﺍﺀ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻻ ﺷﻚ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺼﺪﺭﺍ ﻟﺘﺪﻋﻴﻢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨـﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﲟﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤـﺬﻳﺮ ﺑـﺎﳋﻄﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻭ ﺍﻟﻠﺪﻭﺩ ﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﺪ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﱂ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﳍﺎ ﲟﻮﺿﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻭ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻷﺫﻭﺍﻕ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺧﻼﻕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻴﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﻭ ﳚﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﻴﺪ ﻫﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺤﺺ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍﺀ ﳓﻮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺗﻜﺘﻔﻲ ﻓﻘﻂ ﲟﺠﺮﺩ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻬﺗﺪﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻘﺪﻣﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺪﻋﻴﻢ ﻭ ﺗﻌﻀﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻟﻜﻦ ﻻﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻣـﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﳑﺎ ﳜﺪﻡ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺤﺺ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﳌﺼـﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻌـﺪﺍﺀ ﳓـﻮ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﻻﺑﺪ ﻭ ﺃﻥ ﲢﺪﺩ ﻭ ﺗﺮﺗﺐ ﺍﳋﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺑـﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻱ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻂ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻼﺷﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺪﺋﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻜﲔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﳉﻌﻞ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﻣﻌﻀﺪﺍ‪.‬‬‫ ﺟﻌﻞ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﺣﻠﻴﻔﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺄﻟﻮﻓﺎ‪.‬‬‫ ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺝ ﻭ ﺗﻀﻤﲔ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﻭ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺼﻪ ﻛﺠﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬‫ﻭ ﻳﺆﻛﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ‪ ،‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻒ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻴﺌﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣـﻊ ﺃﻧـﻮﺍﻉ ﻭ ﺍﲡﺎﻫـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺑ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬

‫ﺑﻜﻞ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻭ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻓﺮﺹ ﳒﺎﺣﻪ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺃﺛﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛـﺎﻥ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴـﺎ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺄﺧـﺬ ﺍﻷﺛـﺮﻳﻦ ﺑﻌـﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺼﻨﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭ ﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻠ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ ﺗﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﺪﺩﺕ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻌـﺪﺩ ﺃﻳﻀـﺎ ﺇﱃ‬

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‫ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﳉﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﻪ ﻭ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﻼﻗﺘﻪ ﺑﺴـﻠﻮﻙ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎ ﻨﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍ ﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﻬﺗﺎ ﻭ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﻬﺗﺎ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺻـﻴﻒ‬

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‫ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﻬﺗﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳚﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻻﻃﻤﺌﻨﺎﻥ ﻟﺴـﻜﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎ ﻨﺔ ﻭ ﺎ ﻜﺘ ﺕ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺼﻒ ﲟﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﺪﺩ ﳏﺪﻭﺩ‬‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺸﺎﻬﺑﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺗﻨﺴﻖ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻣﺼﺎﳊﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﺗﻘـﺪﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻗﻒ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻻ ﺗﺘﺼﻒ ﺑﺎﻻﺿﻄﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﺸﺪﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻬﺑـﺎ ﺍﳊـﺪ ﺍﻷﺩ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻮﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌ ﻄﺮﺑﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻻﻣﺘﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻛﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻬﺑﺎ ﺗﻜﺘﻼﺕ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺧﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻛـﺎﻥ ﻬﺑـﺎ‬‫ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﺸﺎﻬﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﻜﺘﻼﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻟﻜﻦ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﺘﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻟـﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧـﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘـﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻒ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺧﺒﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻻﻣﺘﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﻄﺮﺑﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺑﻘﻮﺓ ﳓﻮ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻋﺎﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴـﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﻘﻴـﺪ‪،‬‬‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﻭﺗﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺗﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﳍﺎ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﻔﺮﺽ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻭﰲ‬ ‫ﺿﻮﺀ ﻣﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﲑ ﺳﻠﻮﻛﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻘﻴﺪ ﰲ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺑـﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻣﻨﺎﺳـﺒﺔ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ )‪ ( ٢‬ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻝ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻢ ﻟﺒﻴﺌﺘﻪ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺧﺼﺎ‬

‫‪-‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮ ﻭﺑﺴﻴﻄﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻠ‬

‫ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻨ ﻢ ﺍﳌ ﻤﺔ‬

‫‪-‬ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﻭﻣﺘ ﲑ ﻭﻣﻌﻘﺪ‬

‫‪- -١‬ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﳍﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﺓ ﻭﻣﺘﺠﺎﻧﺴﺔ ﻭﻣﺴـﺘﻘﺮﺓ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﻐﲑﺓ ﺑﺪﺭﺟـﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫)ﺗﻨﻮﻉ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻝ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ ‪-‬ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻝ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ‪:‬‬‫‪ -١-٢-٢‬ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ )ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺨﻄـﻂ‪،‬‬ ‫‪-١-٢-١‬ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳋﻄﺔ )ﺧﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ(‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢-٢-١‬ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﺩ ﰲ ﺻـﻨﻊ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺑﺪﻳﻠﺔ(‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢-٢-٢‬ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺻﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣-٢-١‬ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﱃ ‪-٣-٢-٢‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺴﻴﻖ ﻭﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻔﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٤-٢-١‬ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻘﻴـﺎﻡ ‪-٤-٢-٢‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻳﺔ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ ﺑﺎﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٥-٢-١‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺼﺎﺻـﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺍﺟﺒـﺎﺕ ‪-٥-٢-٢‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻓﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻛﻔﺮﻳﻖ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪- -٢-٢‬ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﻭﺍﻹﺟـﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻼ‪.‬‬ ‫‪- -٢-١‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﻭﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻠـﻮﺍﺋﺢ ﻭﺍﻟﻠﻮﺍﺋﺢ‪.‬‬ ‫‪- -٢-٢‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﺺ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺮﺩ‬ ‫ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻼ ﻭﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪- -٢-١‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼـﺺ ﺑﺄﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻭﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺄﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ )ﺗﻮﺳـﻴﻊ ﻧﻄـﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﺔ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ـﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻱ ‪- -٢-٢‬ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻭﺳﻊ ﻟﻠﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻇﺎﺋﻒ‪.‬‬ ‫ـﻊ ﻟﻠﻤﺴـ‬ ‫ـﻼﺣﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻭﺳـ‬ ‫‪- -٢-١‬ﺻـ‬ ‫‪- -٢-٢‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌـﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ‪.‬‬ ‫‪- -٢-١‬ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﺎﺭﺿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﻋﻠـﻰ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺘـﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺻﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺣـﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺟـﺰﺀ ﻣـﻦ ﻭﺍﺟﺒـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻇﺎﺋﻒ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪- -‬ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﳍﺎ ‪:‬‬

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‫‪ - -‬ﲑ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻟﺘﻨ ﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﻨ ﻢ ‪:‬‬

‫‪-١-٣-١‬ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢-٣-١‬ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣-٣-١‬ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ‪.‬‬

‫‪ - -‬ﲑ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻟﺘﻨ ﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﻨ ﻢ ‪:‬‬

‫‪-١-٣-٢‬ﻻﻣﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕ )ﻻﻣﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢-٣-٢‬ﻻﻣﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﻣﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣-٣-٢‬ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪-٤-٣-١‬ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٥-٣-١‬ﺗﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪- -٣-١‬ﺍﺳﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻨﺎﺕ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻭ‬ ‫ﳏﺪﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪- -٣-١‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳍﲑﺍﺭﻛﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻱ(‬ ‫‪- -٣-١‬ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳـﺔ ﻭﻋـﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﺑـﲔ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﺎﻧـﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔ‬

‫ﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤ‬

‫‪-٤-٣-٢‬ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٥-٣-٢‬ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺃﻗﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪- -٣-٢‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻖ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻭﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ‪.‬‬‫ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻖ ﺍﳋﱪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﳋﱪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﺛﺮ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪.‬‬‫ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺃﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫‪- -٣-٢‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪- -٣-٢‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻣﺼـﻔﻮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﳑﺜﻞ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ‬ ‫ﳉﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺃﻭ ﳉﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻴﺪﺭ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒ ﺫ ﺮﻩ‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺋﻌﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ )ﺭﻗﻢ‪ ( ٤‬ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ‬ ‫)ﺃ( ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻹ ﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫‪:‬‬

‫*ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫*ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫)ﺏ( ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸ‬

‫*ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬ ‫*ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺛﻘﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫*ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺩﳝﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫*ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫*ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫*ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬

‫ﻴﻠﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ –ﺍﳉﻤﺎﻫﲑ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫)ﺟ (ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ – ﺍﳉﻤﺎﻫﲑ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔ‬

‫ﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤ‬

‫ﻴﺪﺭ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺃ ﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﻜﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﲢﻠﻴﻠﻲ ﻭﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠ ﻷ ﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﻳﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ ﻷﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﰲ ﲝﺚ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﳒﺪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻟﻮﺟـﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺃﺛﺮﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﺛﺮﺍ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﳚﻌﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺫﻭ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻫﻮ‬ ‫ﺃﺛﺮ ﺳﻠﱯ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﻳﺴﺒﺐ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﺿﺮﺍﺭﺍ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻠﻮﺙ ﻟﻠﻬﻮﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﺀ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ ،١‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺗﻠـﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺗﺘﺠﻪ ﻷﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍ ﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺎﺭ ﺿﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺘﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﺟﺪﻳـﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﻧﻘﻞ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪-‬ﺍ ﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺎﺭ ﺿﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺘﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﺘﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺗﻀـﻴﻒ ﺗﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺆﻛﺪ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺝ‪-‬ﺍ ﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺎﺭ ﺿﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻻ ﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺘﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻔﻀﻞ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺭﻓـﺾ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻃﻼﻕ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬

‫‪ ، ٢‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺼﺪﺭﻳﻦ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﲔ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻭﺍﻻﺷﺘﺮﺍﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺮ ﻣﺮﻫﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺧﻴﺺ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺼﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻓﻴﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺈﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﻭﺗﺼﻨﻒ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺇﱃ ﺛﻼﺙ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻃﺒﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﳌﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺄﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﺸﺪﺓ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠـﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺛﻼﺙ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻗﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻮﺿﺤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺸـﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ :‬ﻳﺒ ﺇﺟﺮﺍ ﺍﺕ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍ ﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺷﺆﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫"ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ ﻭﺇﺑﺪﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﻱ"‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳚﺐ ﺍﲣﺎﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍ ﻤﻴﺪ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒ ﺫ ﺮﻩ‬

‫ﺗﺮﺳﻞ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺷﺆﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻹﺩﺧﺎﳍﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﺠﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺌﻲ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﻭﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺇﺭﺷﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲝﺚ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﳍﺎ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺷﺆﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎ ﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴ ﺎ ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﳚﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻔﺎﺀ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ )ﺃ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻀﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺤﺺ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻣﺴﺘﻨﺪﻳﺔ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﱘ ﻃﻠﺐ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺼﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻮﳍﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺷﺆﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻏﲑ ﺑﻴﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻹﺟـﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻـﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺼـﻨﻴﻔﲔ ﺍﻟﺮﻣـﺎﺩﻱ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺳـﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎ ﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻣﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﲢﺪﺙ ﺁﺛﺎﺭﺍ ﺑﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻫﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ‬‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﱂ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺼـﻨﻴﻒ ﺣـﺪﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﳍﺎ ﺗﺆﺧﺬ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻷﺣﺠﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﳚﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻔﺎﺀ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌـﻲ )ﺏ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺸـﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﻄﻮﺗﲔ ﳘﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﲏ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻔﺎﺀ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ )ﺏ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺒﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺠﻤﻟﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﲢﺪﺩ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺷـﺆﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ )ﺏ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺇﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﲟـﺎ ﰲ ﺫﻟـﻚ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﳏﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﳚﺐ ﺍﲣﺎﺫﻫﺎ ﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻳﻄﻠﺐ ﺭﲰﻴﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺔ ﳏـﺪﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺠﻤﻟﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺯ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﻓﺤﺼﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﺩ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺷﺆﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺪﺓ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﺑﺪﺀﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﺳﺘﻼﻣﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺇﻣﺎ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻊ ﻃﻠﺐ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎ ﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺩﺍ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﻄﻠﺐ ﳍﺎ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻟ ﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴـﺔ‬‫ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻷﻧﻈﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﱂ ﻳﻀـﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺼـﻨﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﺗﺆﺧﺬ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻷﺣﺠﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺇﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﲟـﺎ ﰲ ﺫﻟـﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﲣﺎﺫﻫﺎ ﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﳛﺪﺙ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﻋﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺷﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺩﺍﺀ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﳏﺎﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻃﻠﺐ ﺧﺮﺍﺋﻂ ﲟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺭﺳﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻟﺘﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﳌﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﳏﺎﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﶈﻴﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﻴﺌﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻀﺎﻑ ﺇﱃ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻭﺻﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻭﲣﺰﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻨـﻬﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺼـﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺒﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﺍﳌﺨﻠﻔﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﻴـﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺼـﺮﻑ ﻭﻛﻤﻴـﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺮﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻻﻧﺒﻌﺎﺛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻭﺗﺮﻛﻴﺰﻫﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﰒ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﶈﻴﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﻘﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺰ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻵﺛـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻌﻴﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲡﻨﺒﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻜﺴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻣﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺴـﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻭﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻧﺒﻌﺎﺙ ﺍﳌﺪﺍﻓﻦ ﻭﺗﺼﺮﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﻄﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﲢﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺠﻤﻟﺎﻬﺑﺔ ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﲢﺪﻳﺚ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﻭﻃﺮﻕ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳـﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺛﺮ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘـﺪﱘ ﺗﻘﺮﻳـﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻲ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻧﺼﻮﺹ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﻭﺇﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﱐ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻓﻴﻤـﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠـﻖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﳌﺰﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﻨﲔ ﻭﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻧﻔﺼـﺎﻝ …ﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳚﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳉﻤﻬﻮﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻠﻮﺍﺋﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﺴﺮﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﺍﺕ ﺻﻠﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳ‬

‫ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻨﺎﻙ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻـﺮ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻬﻧﺪﻑ ﺇﱃ ﲝﺚ ﻗﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻭﺗﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳـﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻜﻤﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﱯ ﻭﺗﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﻣﺎ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻗﺪ ﲤﻨﺤﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﳚﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳎـﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﻗﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻭﺗﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳـﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﲝﺚ ﺟﺪﻭﺍﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻳﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻻﺕ ﺃﻡ ﻻ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻭﺗﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻗـﺪ ﺗﻀـﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻭﺃﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺒﺪﻭ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻟﻴﺴـﺖ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻋﻼﻗـﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،١‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻓﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻣﺎ ﺗﻄﻠﺒﻪ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺭﺳﻮﻡ ﻭﻣﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻨﺪﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠـﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳍﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳉﻤﺎﺭﻙ ﻭﻗـﺮﺍﺭ ﺣﻈـﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﲝﻈﺮ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑـﲔ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻭﺃﻗﺴﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺇﱃ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳍﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺯﺍﻭﻳﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺇﱃ ﲝﺚ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﱵ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺧﱪﺍﺀ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﻮﻥ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﻗﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻭﺗﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣـﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳـﺎ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺤﻤﻠﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﻭ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﺍﻷﻧﺴﺐ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟـﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﻈﻢ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻓﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬

‫‪ ، ٢‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻠﻴﻞ ﺍ ﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧ ﻭ ﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬

‫ﺎﻭﻝ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺧﱪﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﲝﺚ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻭﺗﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬

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‫ﲟﺎ ﲢﻤﻠﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﳍﺎ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻠﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﲟﺎ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻨﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻮﺩ ﻭﺃﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﳍﺎ‬ ‫ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﻫﺎ ﻭﲝﺚ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻳﻀﺎﺡ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻮﺍﻓ ﻭﻣ ﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﻭﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺇﱃ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﲔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﻭﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬‫ ‪-‬ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎ ﺍﺕ ﺍﻟ ﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳉﻤﺮ ﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﳌ ﻗﺘﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﺗﻌﲏ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﳝﻜﻦ‬‫ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺑﺈﻋﻔﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﻯ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻻ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺑﺪﻓﻊ ﺃﻱ ﺿﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭﻻ‬ ‫ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺭﺳﻮﻣﺎ ﲨﺮﻛﻴﺔ ﺃﺣﻴﺎﻧﺎ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﻗﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻳﺘﻤﺘـﻊ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﺑﺈﻋﻔﺎﺀ ﻣﺆﻗﺖ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﻹﺟﺎﺯﺓ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺯﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸـﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﺪﺓ ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﱯ ﺑﲔ ‪٥‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻭ ‪ ١‬ﺳـﻨﻮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﲤﺘﺪ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﺇﱃ ‪ ١٥‬ﻭ ‪ ٢‬ﻭ‪ ٢٥‬ﺳﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﰲ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﺍﻧﻴـﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳـﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﳍﺎ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺇﳚـﺎ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﲝﺚ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻭﺣـﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻷﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﺆﻫﻼ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻩ‪ ،‬ﻓﻼ ﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺭﺑﻂ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﺎ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﻜـﻞ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﺄﺑﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻧﺆﻛﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻴﺪﺓ ﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳓﻦ ﺑﺼﺪﺩﻫﺎ ﻭﲝﺜﻬﺎ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻈﻢ ﺍﳉﻤﺮﻛﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﳉﻤﺮﻛﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻳﺔ ﺗﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﲢﺪﺙ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﳍﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﺍ ﻮﺍﻓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎ ﺮ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎ ﺮ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‬‫ﻭﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ ‪- -‬ﺍ ﻮﺍﻓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎ ﺮ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺗﻘـﺪﱘ ﺇﻋﺎﻧـﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺴـﺎﻋﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﰲ ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺻﻨﺎﺩﻳﻖ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻨﻮﻙ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ﻭﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﳊـﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

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‫ ‪- -‬ﺍ ﻮﺍﻓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎ ﺮ ‪ :‬ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣـﺔ‬‫ﻭﺭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﳏﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﻭﺍﳍﻮﺍﺗﻒ‪ ،‬ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﳋـﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﻟﺘﺴـﻴﲑ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺗﺰﻭﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﲟﺎ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﲟﻨﺢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﲟﺮﻛﺰﻩ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﻗﺪ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﻀﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﲞﺼﻮﺹ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﺤﻪ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﺍ ﺍﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭﻳﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴـﻮﻕ ﺃﻭ ﻗﻔـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﳌﻦ ﻳﺮﻏﺐ ﰲ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺔ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟـﻮ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻫﻲ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﳊﺎﺿﺮ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻬﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺃﻋﻄﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺃﻭﺭﻭﺟﻮﺍﻱ ﺳـﻨﺔ ‪١ ٤‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺘﻮﻓﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺣﱴ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻬﻠﺔ ﰲ ‪.٢ ٤‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﺒﺎ ﺍﻟ ﺴﺒﺒﻬﺎ ﻗﻮﺍﻧ ﻭ ﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ :‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺎﻧـﺐ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺑـﻞ‬‫ﻗﻴﻮﺩ ﻭﺃﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻠﻘﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺗﻀﻌﻬﺎ ﻗﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻭﺗﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺜﻘﻞ ﻛﺎﻫﻠﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﻬﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﻨﻊ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺧﺎﺹ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﺟﻨﱯ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺗﻠﺠﺄ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟـﺪﻭﻝ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﺮ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻛﻠﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﺠﻪ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻒ ﻋﻘﺒﺔ ﺃﻣـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﰲ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﻭﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳊﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﲑﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﳌﻼﺣﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻠﺠﺄ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺃﺳﺲ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺗﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﻭﺿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻘﻴـﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﻭﺿـﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻴﻮﺩ ﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﻠﺠﻨﺴـﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻴﺌـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻬﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﻏﺎﻟﺒـﺎ ﻣـﺎ ﺗﺸـﺘﺮﻁ‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻭﻃﺎ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﺗﻀﻊ ﺿﻮﺍﺑﻂ ﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﳉﻮﺩﺓ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳉﻮﺩﺓ ﻭﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼـﺪﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻛﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪ ﺗﻀﻴﻒ ﺃﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﺜﻞ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺭﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺠﻴﻞ ﻟﻸﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﱐ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻀﻊ ﺍﺷﺘﺮﺍﻃﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺗﻀﻴﻒ ﺃﻋﺒـﺎﺀ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﻨﺎ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﳌﺎ ﺟﺎﺀ ﺑـﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﺃﻭﺿﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﺷﺘﺮﺍﻛﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺸـﺘﺮﻁ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﻓﻘـﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻴﻴﻒ ﺃﻭﺿﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﻭﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﲝـﺚ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﳚﺐ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺎ ﺃﻡ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗـﻒ ﻋﻨـﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤـﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺁﺧﺮ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳍﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﶈﻮﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﲝﺚ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘـﺎﻧﻮﱐ‬

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‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻳﺘﻼﺀﻡ ﻣﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺣﺠﻤﻪ ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺳﻴﻤﺎﺭﺳﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺧﺬﺍ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺒﲑ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪ ١‬ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻸﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻷ ﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻘﺴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﺷﻜﺎﻝ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻳﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺃﺑﺴﻂ ﺍﻷﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺻﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﻓﻬـﻮ ﻣـﺪﻳﺮﻩ‬‫ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺮﺳﻢ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻪ ﻭﻳﺘﺤﻤﻞ ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻭﻟﻴﺎﺗﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻣﻼﻛﻪ ﺿﺎﻣﻨﺔ ﻟﺘﻌﻬﺪﺍﺗﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨـﻮﻉ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲝﺮﻳﺔ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻭﺇﳒﺎﺯ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻴﺐ ﻳﺘﻤﺜـﻞ ﰲ ﺃﻧـﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺆﻭﻝ ﻣﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﰲ ﲢﻤﻞ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺿﻴﺎﻉ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻟﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺻﻐﲑﺓ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷ ﺨﺎ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺃﺷﺨﺎﺹ ﻭﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬‫ ‪ - -‬ﺮ ﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺎﻣﻦ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻀﺎﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﰲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﺑﻜﻞ ﺩﻳﻮﻬﻧﺎ ﻭﺗﻌﻬﺪﺍﻬﺗﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ‬‫ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﺃﺛﺮ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺴﺌﻮﻭﻟﻴﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﻏﲑ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﻦ ﲰﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﳑﺘﻠﻜﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻻﻛﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺛﻘﺔ ﲨﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺋﻖ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﲟﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﺃﻫـﻢ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻓﻊ ﳍﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻀﺎﻋﻔﺔ ﺟﻬﻮﺩﻫﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﻮﺍﺟﺒﺎﻬﺗﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺍﲢﺎﺩﻫﻢ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭﺳﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﳛﺘﺎﺟﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻋﻴﻮﻬﺑﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﳎـﺮﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺃﻱ ﺷﺮﻳﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳋﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻄﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻮﺳـﻴﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﺪ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﺮﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﺠﺰ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﻋﻦ ﺇﻣﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﻀﻄﺮﻫﻢ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﺑﺂﺧﺮﻳﻦ ﻗـﺪ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻮﻧﻮﺍ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻭﺍﻗﻞ ﲰﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻬﺪﺩ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﺑﻮﻓﺎﺓ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻓﻼﺳﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪ - -‬ﺮ ﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﳚﻤﻊ ﺑﲔ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺿﺎﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻀـﺎﻣﻦ‬‫ﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺗﻌﻬﺪﺍﺗﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻳﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻪ ﻭﻣﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺎﺗﻪ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﺓ ﲟﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺪﻓﻌﻪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣـﻦ ﺣﺼـﺔ ﰲ ﺃﻣـﻮﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﻳﻠﺘﺰﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﺑﺘﻌﻬﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻟﻪ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺎﻟﺸﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﳌﺘﻀﺎﻣﻦ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑـﺎﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻔﺘﺢ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﺍﳌﻐﺎﻣﺮ ﻭﺍﳊـﺮﻳﺺ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻮﺏ ﻓﺘﺘﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﻣﻊ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺎﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻳﻼﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪ - -‬ﺮ ﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎ ﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﲔ ﻋﺪﺩ ﳏﺪﻭﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﳌﺪﺓ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﻻ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‪.‬‬‫‪ ١‬ﲪﺪﻱ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻈﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻋﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻐﺪ ﻟﻠﺪﻋﺎﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ‪،‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

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‫ ‪-‬ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺼﻠﺢ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻟﺘﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ‪ ،‬ﺫﺍﺕ ﺣﺠﻢ‬‫ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻫﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺗﺴﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺩﻋﻮﺓ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﳑﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻟﻼﺷﺘﺮﺍﻙ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺗﺼﻞ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ﻣﻼﻳﲔ ﻭﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻳﻨﺘﺨﺒﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﻮﻥ ﳌﺪﺓ ﻣﻌﻴﻨـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻻ ﳛﻖ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﺣﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻄﺮﺡ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻟﻼﻛﺘﺘﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﺘـﱪ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺇﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﲤﺜﻞ ﻭﺯﻧﺎ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪﺍ ﰲ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺗﻌﺪﺕ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﻟﺘﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻌـﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﳉﻨﺴـﻴﺎﺕ ﻟﻀـﺨﺎﻣﺔ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺿﺨﺎﻣﺔ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻔﻀﻞ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﳉﻨﺴﻴﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻀﻴﻔﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﻭﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﺮﻳﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻧﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻀـﻴﻔﺔ ﻟﻼﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺮﻏﺒﺔ ﰲ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﻴﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻟﻸﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻣﺜـﻞ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﳚﺐ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻐﲑ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﲢﻘﻴـﻖ ﺍﳌﻨـﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻣﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﲑ ﻭﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻛـﺒﲑﺓ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﺟﺪﺍ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﻻ ﳜﻠﻮ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳉﻤﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺗﻜﻔـﻞ‬ ‫ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻻﻛﺘﺘﺎﺏ ﻓﻘﻂ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﲤﺘﺪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﻠﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻬﺑﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﰲ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﳚﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺤﻔﻈﲔ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﺪﺧﻠﻮﻧﻪ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺧﻮﻑ ﺃﻭ ﳐﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺃﻥ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺗﻠﺰﻡ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻧﺸـﻄﺔ ﻷﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻄﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲡﻤﻊ ﺑﲔ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺷﺨﺎﺹ ﻭﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ )ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ(‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ‬‫ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ‪- -‬ﺍﻟﺸﺮ ﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴ ﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺪﻭﺩ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﻋﻦ ‪ ٥‬ﺷﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ‬‫ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺛﻨﲔ )‪ ، ( ٢‬ﻭ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻟﻴﺘﻬﻢ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﺓ ﲟﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﺎ ﺩﻓﻌﻮﻩ ﰲ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﺗﺄﺳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻦ‬ ‫ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻻﻛﺘﺘﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﲤﺎﺭﺱ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ ﻛﺘﻠﻘـﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺩﺍﺋـﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻜـﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺷﺨﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﲔ ﻭﻟﻴﺴﻮﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺷﺨﺎﺹ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻳﲔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪ -‬ﺮ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻬﻢ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺸﺒﻪ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﻏﲑ ﺃﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻳﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ‬‫ﺻﻐﲑﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺳﻬﻤﻬﺎ ﻻ ﺗﻄﺮﺡ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻟﻼﻛﺘﺘﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﺗﻄﺮﺡ ﻟﻼﻛﺘﺘﺎﺏ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻷﺷﺨﺎﺹ ﺍﻟـﺬﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻮﻧﻮﺍ ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻓﲔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻀﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻮﺍﺯ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﻣﺘﻀﺎﻣﻨﲔ ﻭﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﺻﻴﲔ ﻭﻣﺘﻀﺎﻣﻨﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺍﺟﺒﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﺗﺸﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﲤﺎﻣﺎ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﻭﻭﺍﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﰲ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﻭﺗﺪﺭﺱ ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﳑﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ‪ :‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺎ ﺳـﺒﻖ ﲢﻠﻴﻠـﻪ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻷﺷـﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴـﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﻛﻞ ﺷﻜﻞ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﰲ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻳﺴﺘﻜﻤﻞ ﺑﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺒﲑ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻷﻧﺴﺐ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ)‪: (١‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺗﻔﺮﺽ ﺑﻄﺒﻴﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺷﻜﻼ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ‬‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻨﺺ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﺍ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ‪ ،‬ﻛﺄﻥ ﻳﺸﺘﺮﻁ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﶈـﺪﺩ‬ ‫ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﻴﻄﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍ ﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺴ ﺘﺜﻤﺮ ‪ :‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﳒﺪ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺷﺘﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺟﻬﺔ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ‬‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺃﻭ ﰲ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﲏ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻟﻪ ﻧﺼﻮﺹ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﺴﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺧﻼﻑ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻻﺷﺘﺮﺍﻙ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻢ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﻏﻮﺏ ﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ ‪ :‬ﻓﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺗﻄﻠﺐ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻗﺪﺭﺍ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﻻ ﻳﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺷﺨﺺ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺃﻭ‬‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﳏﺪﻭﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺷﺨﺎﺹ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﳉﻤﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻼﻛﺘﺘﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻷﻧﺴﺐ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ ﻷﻧﺸﻄﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﲔ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺷﺨﺎﺹ ﺃﻭ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺎﺻﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺗﻨﺸـﺄ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﲟﺠﺮﺩ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻫﺎ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ ﻓـﻴﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﻫﻮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺣﺠـﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﺃ ﻜﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧ ﺍﳌﻨ ﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﻌﲏ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﻈﻢ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﲢﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺷـﻜﺎﻝ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﻭﻭﺍﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺷﺘﺮﺍﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺍﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳚﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﺮﺽ ﻧﺴﺒﺎ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﻈﻢ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻓﻼﺱ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺼـﻔﻴﺔ ﻭﲢﺪﻳـﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻲ ﻣﺴﺆﻭﻻ ﻓﻘﻂ‬ ‫ﻋﻦ ﺃﻱ ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﰲ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺘﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻳﻚ ﰲ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺎﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺆﻭﻝ ﻋﻦ ﺃﻱ ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﻟﻴﺲ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻂ ﰲ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺘﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﻞ ﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻟﻪ ﻭﳑﺘﻠﻜﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫)‪ (١‬ﺃﻧﻈﺮ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪ :‬ﲪﺪﻱ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻈﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ﺹ ‪٥٤-٥٢‬‬

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‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﲝﺚ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻩ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﻭﻭﺍﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺃﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﻟﻜﻞ ﳏﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﶈـﺪﺩﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻣﻌﲔ‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻨﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﻪ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺍﺧﻴﺺ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﳌﺰﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻭﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﺑﺈﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻭﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ ﺃﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺩﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻏﲑﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺧﺬﺍ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﻣﻊ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﻭﻣﻮﺍﺯﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺼﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﻴـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺐﺀ ﻭﺍﻻﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳜﻀﻊ ﳍﺎ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘـﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻮﺻـﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﰎ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻩ ﺫﻭ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺃﻭ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺫﻭ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﰎ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺧﱪﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﻮﻣﻮﻥ ﺑﺈﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻮﺛﺎﺋﻖ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺩ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻭﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟـﺔ ﺑـﲔ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﰲ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﲔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺸـﺮﻳﻚ ﺍﻷﺟـﻨﱯ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺭﺩﻳﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻠﺺ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﰲ ﻬﻧﺎﻳﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻘﺪﻣﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﲨﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﻛﻮﻬﻧﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢـﺪﺩ ﻭﺗﻔﺼـﻞ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻣﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﳚﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﺃﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﻭﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﺇﱃ ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳍﺎﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺧﻄـﻂ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﲑﻭﻗﺮﺍﻃﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻮﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﳍﺎ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻮﺣﺪﻫﺎ ﻷﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﺆﻫﻼ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻩ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺫﻟـﻚ ﻣـﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎﳌﻨـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﻜﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﻜﻞ ﺃﺑﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٤‬ﺇﻥ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﻗﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﺔ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﱴ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٥‬ﺇﻥ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻣﺮ ﻳﻬﻢ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣـﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺤﻮﺫ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺑﻘﺪﺭ ﺃﻛﱪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻀﻴﻒ ﺃﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻛﺰﻳـﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺮﺳـﻮﻡ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ‪ ،‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺷﺘﺮﺍﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﻓﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﻳ ﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻋﺼﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺒﲎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﲣـﺎﺫ‬ ‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻣﻪ‪ .‬ﺑﻞ ﺗﻀﻊ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺻﻞ ﺑﲔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻓﺸﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﻮﺝ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴـﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴـﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﱪﺯ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﲝﻴﺚ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﺼﻮﺭ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻩ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺋﻪ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻋﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﻗﺪﺭﺗﻪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺇﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻐﻄﻴﺔ ﻣﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺗﻪ ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺚ ﻟﻠﻮﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳـﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻦ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺟﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻱ ﺧﻄﺄ ﰲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴـﺎﺭ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴـﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻠﱯ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﻣﻴﻮﻝ ﻭﺃﺫﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧـﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻨﺠﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺭﺗﻜﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺧﻄﺎﺀ ﰲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺧﻄﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺘﻠﺤﻖ ﺑﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺧﺎﻃﺌﺔ ﻭﳐﻄﻄﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻏﲑ ﻗـﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻥ ﺘﻮﻯ ﻭﻣ ﻤﻮﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎ ﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﻠ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌ ﻣ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻮ ﺍ ﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠ ﻋﻠ ﻣﻨﺘ ﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﻠ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻳﻘﻮﺩﻧﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺃﻭﻻ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬

‫ﻋﻦ ﻣﻌﲎ ﻭﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ‪ ،‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﳌﺘﻀﻤﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻭﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻌﺘ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻛﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﻜﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﻼﺣﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ‬

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‫ﺃﻱ ﺧﻄﺄ ﺃﻭ ﺳﻮﺀ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﰲ ﺇﳒﺎﺯ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﻑ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺒﺎﺷـﺮ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺣﻘﺔ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺣﱴ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﺰﻣﻊ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻩ ﻭﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺇﺯﺍﺀﻩ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺗﺴﻠﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻵ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ‪:‬‬‫ﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺪﺩ ﻣـﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻃﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﺃﻡ ﻻ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺘﻤﺤﻮﺭ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻗﺎ ﳏﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﺇﻟﻴﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺒﲎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺑﻞ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻣﻪ‪.٢‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﲟﺎ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺒﻪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠـﺐ‬ ‫ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﳛﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻘـﻮﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺔ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﱪﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﲔ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪:‬‬‫ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺮﺟﻰ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺘﻠﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١-٢‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﳕﻮﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺴـﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻘـﺐ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺮﳛﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﲟﺎ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻨﻪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻗﺎﺳﻢ ﻧﺎﺟﻲ ﲪﻨﺪﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﻧﻈﺮﻱ ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ﰲ ﺃﺳﺲ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١ ٣‬‬

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‫‪ -٢-٢‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﳍﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴـﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﰲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ ﻭﺩﺧﻮﳍﻢ ﻭﺃﻋﻤﺎﺭﻫﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣-٢‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﳕﻂ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻲ ﻭﺍﳊﺎﺿﺮ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﲣﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤-٢‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﻮﻳﻖ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﳌﺰﻣﻊ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻪ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﳝﻪ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٥-٢‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻭﳚﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ - -٢‬ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻢ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ - -٢‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻭﺗﻮﺻﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺼﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ - -٢‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺔ ﲝﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻢ ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺭﺩﻭﺩ ﻓﻌﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻢ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻛﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻓﺎ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺃﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﻣﻄﺮﻭﺣﺔ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ - -٢‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻭﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ ؟‬ ‫‪ -١ -٢‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ؟‬ ‫‪ -١١-٢‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻛﻔﺄ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺬ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ؟‬ ‫‪ -١٢-٢‬ﻣﻦ ﻫﻢ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﻋﻤﻼﺀ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﲔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺮﺗﻘﺒﲔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ ؟‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺧﺼﺎ‬

‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺘﺼ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﲟﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﻴﺰﻫﺎ ﻋﻦ ﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣـﻦ‬

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‫ﺃﻫﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳚﺐ ﻣﺮﺍﻋﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﺄﻛﱪ ﺩﺭﺟـﺔ‬ ‫ﳑﻜﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺗﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳜﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺩﻗﺘﻬﺎ ﲟﺪﻯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﲤﺜﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﰲ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻘﻴـﺪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴـﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﳜﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﺇﻥ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺔ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻣﺪﻯ ﲡﺰﺋﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻳﻀﺎﺡ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺘﻠﻬﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻣـﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺒﺎﻗ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫"ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻋﺼ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ‬

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‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ"‬

‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍ ﻤﻴﺪ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒ ﺫ ﺮﻩ‬

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‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺻﻠﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻮﺛﻴﻘﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺀ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻣﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺑﻨﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠـﺔ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﻋﻤـﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺑﺬﺍﻬﺗﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺼﺎﺣﺐ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻃـﻮﺍﻝ ﻋﻤـﺮﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﻌﺎ ﻤ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟ ﻳﻌﻴﺸ ﻬﺎ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎ ﻭﻫﻮ ﻋﻠ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻥ ﺍ ﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺮﻳﻦ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎ ﻤﻮﻥ ﻋﻠ‬

‫ﺇﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺸ ﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﰲ ﺍﳉ ﺍ ﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺇﳘﺎﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ‬

‫ﻴﺚ ﺮ‬

‫ﻋﻠ ﺇﳘﺎﳍﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺎﺿ ﺇﻫﺪﺍﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻧﺎ ﻟﻠﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺎ ﻞ ﺍﻟ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇ ﻋ ﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻓﺘﻘﺎﺩ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩﻫﺎ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻃﻠ‬

‫ﻴﺚ ﺃ ﺒ ﻗﺼﻮﺭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘ‬

‫ﻠ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺎﺭﺟ ﺃﺧﻄﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺼﻮﺭ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟ ﻣﺔ ﻹﻧﺸ ﺎ ﺍﳌﺸ ﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﻓ ﺒ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻬﻢ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺳﻮ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮ ﻭﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭ ﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬

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‫*ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ -:‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫*ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺇﱃ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻓﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ) ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ( ‪.‬‬‫ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻠﻊ ﻭﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻓﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ )ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ( ‪.‬‬‫*ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺇﱃ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‪.‬‬‫ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻲ‪.‬‬‫ﻭﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻳﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻭﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﲔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻋﻄﺎﺀ ﺷﻲﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴـﻞ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﺪﺓ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬‫ﺃﻭ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﺭﲰﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻏﱪ ﺭﲰﻴﺔ ﳍﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﱂ ﺗﻜﻦ ﻣﻌـﺪﺓ ﺧﺼﻴﺼـﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺣﱴ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﻫـﺪﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲨﻌﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻳـﺔ ‪ ،Secondary Data‬ﻭﻳﺘﻄﻠـﺐ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣـﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﻀﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺗﺴﺎﻗﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺼﺪﺭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﻊ ﻭﺟـﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺩﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳌﻮﺛﻮﻕ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺼـﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻣﺔ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻧﻘﺺ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﻣﻬـﺎ ﻭﺍﺳـﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﺻـﺪﺍﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ ﺭﻏﻢ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺎ ﻔﺎﺽ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻛـﺜﲑ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺘﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﰲ ﺳﻠﻊ ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻓﺔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺳﺮﻋﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧـﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴـﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﻌﺘﻤـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ* ﻭﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻭﲢﺪﻳـﺪ ﻧﻘـﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﺧـﺘﻼﻑ‬‫ﻭﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻭﺗﻨﺸﺮ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﰲ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺎﻓﺔ ﻭﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﻭﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﻫﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﺼﺎﺋﻴﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺠﻤﻟﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪ -‬ﻘﺎﺭﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺪﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﺍﳌﻮ ﻋ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﺎ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﻈﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺭﺿﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ‬‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﻭﻣﻮﻗﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺢ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﱐ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻼﺣﻈﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹ ﺼﺎ ﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻨﺸﺮﻩ ﺍﳍﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼـﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳـﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﻭﺍﻷﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺧﲑﺍ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲣﺪﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟ ﻨﺸﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﻨﻮ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺮ ﺎﺕ ﺴﻮﻳ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻇﻬـﺮ ﺃﺧـﲑﺍ ﺍﻟﺸـﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳉﻬـﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﰲ ﺑﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﺴﻮﻳﻘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:١‬‬ ‫ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻖ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻳﺔ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲨﻊ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫـﺎ ﺧﺼﻴﺼـﺎ‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﺍﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﻭﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲨﻌﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ، Primary Data‬ﻭﻟﻜـﻲ ﺗـﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺑﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻭﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻼ ﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﻏﲎ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﳋﻄﻮ ﺍﻷﻭ ﰲ‬

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‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻭﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳋﻄﻮ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻓﺘﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳋﻄﻮ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﻭﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺗﺄ ﺍﳋﻄﻮ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﻭﲣﻄﻴﻂ ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﲡﻤﻴـﻊ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺄ ﺍﳋﻄﻮ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﲑ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻖ‬

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‫ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻮﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺘﻔﻮﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﳉﺪﻳـﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﱂ ﺗﻌﺮﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺑﻌﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻗﺪ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﺩﻗﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺃﺣﺴﻦ ﲨﻊ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻋﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﳚﺮﻱ ﺍﳋﱪﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﻮﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺋﻬﺎ ﻣﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴـﺔ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﳉﻤﻊ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺇﻣﺎ ﺑﺈﺟﺮﺍﺋﻬﺎ ﻣﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳉﻤﻊ ﺑﻴﻨـﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﰲ‬ ‫ﺿﻮﺀ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻓﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺻﻐﲑﺍ ﺃﻭ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ‪.‬‬‫ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﻴﺎ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮﺓ ﺃﻡ ﻻ‪.‬‬‫ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﺃﻡ ﻻ‪.‬‬‫‪ ١‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﺻﺎﱀ ﺍﳊﻨﺎﻭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻗﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺮ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺚ ‪ ، ١ ٣ ،‬ﺹ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﺎﺡ ﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﺃﻡ ﻻ‪.‬‬‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻳﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻣﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﲡﻤﻊ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻻﺛﻨﲔ ﻣﻌﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﺧﲑﺍ ﲡﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﻤﺪ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﻋـﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ - -‬ﺍﳌ‬

‫ﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻔﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻭﺗﺴﺠﻴﻞ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺓ ﰲ‬

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‫ﻛﺸﻮﻑ ﻣﻌﺪﺓ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻫﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻨﻤﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎ ﻭﺍﳌﺴ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﱐ ‪ : Field Survey :‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺷﻴﻮﻋﺎ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎ ﰲ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ‬‫)ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ( ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﻭﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﺁﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻘﺒﲔ ﻭﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﻭﺩﻭﺍﻓﻌﻬﻢ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﺍﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﲡﻤﻴـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻗﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺘﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﺪﺓ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼـﻴﺔ ﻭﻋـﻦ ﻃﺮﻳـﻖ ﺍﻟﱪﻳـﺪ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳍﺎﺗﻒ ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘ ﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤ ﺑﺎﻟﺘ ﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺑﲔ ﻣـﺘﻐﲑﻳﻦ‬‫ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺇﺣﺪﺍﳘﺎ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻭﺍﻵﺧﺮ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﳌـﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺠـﺮﻳﱯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺗﻈﻞ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻭ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﲡﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﻳﱯ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﻗﺒـﻞ ﺑـﺪﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑـﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﻳﱯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﻳﱯ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﻭﺗﺼﺮﻓﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻘﺒﲔ ﺃﻭ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺭﺩ ﻓﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻄﻌﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ ﻭﺧﻼﻓﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺳﻨﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻫﺎ ﻣﻮﺟﺰﺓ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌ ﻣ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻮ ﺍ ﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬ ‫ﻳﻨ ﻢ ﻋﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻼﻣﺢ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﲝﺠﻢ ﻭﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻘﺒﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴـﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪.‬ﻭﺍﳌﻼﺣﻆ ﻭﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺗﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳـﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺳـﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻊ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳـﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﻮﺩ ﰲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺗﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ‪.‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﺴـﻮﻳﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﻭﺷﻜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﰲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﰲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻓﺤﺠﻢ ﻭﻗﻮﺓ ﻭﺷﻜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﳜﺘﻠﻒ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻵﺧﺮ ﺑﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﳜﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻲ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺪ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻠﺴﻌﺮ ‪ ،‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺳﻌﺮ ﳏﺪﺩ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺇﻋﺎﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﻟﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﺒﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻲ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺿﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻋﻞ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻣـﻦ ﺳـﻠﻊ ﻭﺧـﺪﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪..‬ﺍ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳑﺎ ﻻ ﺷﻚ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻲ ﰲ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴـﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﺳـﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻭﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘـﺮﺡ‬ ‫ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻭ ﻜﻦ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻞ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺼـﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﳑﻴﺰﺍﺗﻪ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﺎﻣﻼ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﺎ ﰲ ﳒﺎﺣـﻪ ﺃﻭ ﻓﺸـﻠﻪ ﻭﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺳﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻀﻢ ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺋﻌﲔ ﻭﻣﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ‬‫ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪ‪ ،١‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻣﻌﻄﻰ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺍﶈﻘﻖ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳـﻞ ﻫـﻮ ﺍﻟـﺮﺑﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻚ ﻷﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺗﺒﻠ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﻬﺗﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﻡ ﺍﳊﻠﱯ ‪ ،‬ﺷﺤﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳉﻴﻮﺷﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺻﻔﺎﺀ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ، ٢ ١ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٤٤‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ ﺳﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺘﻜﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺳﻮﻕ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻓﺲ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲝﺮﻳﺔ ﺗﺎﻣﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺑﻴﻊ ﺳـﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ‬‫ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﻌﺮﺽ ﻧﻮﻋﺎ ﳑﻴﺰﺍ ﺧﺎﺻﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘـﺎﱄ ﱂ ﺗﻌـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﺠﺎﻧﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻘﺪﺭ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﻧﺲ ﺑﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﺎ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴـﻮﺩ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﻮﺩ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﻣﺘﺸﺎﻬﺑﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺳﻮ ﺍ ﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﺔ ‪ :‬ﻫﻮ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻗﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﲔ ) ﻻ ﻳﻌﲏ ﻋـﺪﺩﺍ ﳏـﺪﺩﺍ (‬‫ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻘﻮﻣﻮﻥ ﺑﺈﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺳﻠﻊ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳒﺪ ﺍﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﻗﻠﺔ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﻳﺰ ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﻗﻠﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﻳﺰ ) ﺃﻱ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﻌﺎ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺠﺎﻧﺴﺔ (‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺍﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﺔ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﻴﺢ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﺍﺿﻄﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺘﻜﺮﺓ ﺃﻱ ﺍﶈﺘﻜـﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﲔ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺑﻴﻌﻬﻢ ﻟﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻻ ﺍﺿﻄﺮﻭﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳋﺮﻭﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓـﺈﻥ ﺗﻐـﲑ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻳﺄ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺭﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻷﻓﻌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﲝﺴﺐ ﺍﻷﺣﻮﺍﻝ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﺴﻢ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻌـﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﰲ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﲝﺬﺭ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻻﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻣﺎ ﲤﻴﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳉﻤـﻮﺩ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﻲﺀ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺳﻮ ﺍﻻ ﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﲟﻔﺮﺩﻫﺎ )ﺃﻭ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ( ﺑﺈﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻟﻴﺲ ﳍﻞ ﺑـﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻗﺮﻳﺒـﺔ‬‫ﺗﺘﻨﺎﻓﺲ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺗﻨﻌﺪﻡ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﻠﻴﺲ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﲤﻴﺰ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺑﺄﻛﻤﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻠﻴﺲ ﳍﺎ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺴﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺍﶈﺘﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﺘﺠﻬﺎ ﺗﺎﺭﻛﺎ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﺎ ﰲ ﻭﻗـﺖ ﻭﺍﺣـﺪ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺘﻜﺮ ﲡﺰﺋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﺸﺮﻁ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺗﺼﺎﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﳝﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﻭﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺃﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻔﺮﻳﻖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺻـﻌﻮﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﻜﺘﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺣﺮﻳﺘﻪ ﻻ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺇﻏﻔﺎﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻣﺜﻞ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﳌﻤﻨﻮﺣﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﳑﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻨﺢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪.‬‬‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺪﻳﺪ ﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ ﻋﻠ ﻣﻨﺘ ﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﲟﺤﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺘﺼﻒ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌـﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟـﱵ‬ ‫ﲢﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﻣﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻲ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‪.‬‬‫‪ -‬ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻜﻤﻠﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ ﺃﺫﻭﺍﻕ ﻭﺗﻔﻀﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳉﻬﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻭﳚﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺑﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﳕﻮ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﻭﺍﳉﻨﺲ‪.‬‬‫ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩ‪.‬‬‫ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺸﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ‪.‬‬‫ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ‪.‬‬‫ﻭﳑﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺑﻌﺾ ﳏﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﺍﻬﺗﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﳏﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﺮﺟﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﶈﻴﻄﺔ ﲟﺎ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻜﻮﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ …ﺍ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺧﲑﺍ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻦ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﻛﻤﺘﻐﲑ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺳﻠﻊ ﺑﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺧﺘﻔﺎﺀ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﳌﻜﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟـﱵ ﻗـﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻈﺎﻫﺮ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺎﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﳏﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﺩ ﺫﻱ ﺑﺪﺀ ﺑﺎﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﲔ ﻭﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﲔ ﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﳉﻨﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ‬ ‫ﻳﻨﺘﻤﻮﻥ ﳍﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺎﰲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﰲ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﺣﺼﺮ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺎﻛﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺼﺎﺋﺼﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﺽ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﺣﺼﺮ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻜﻤﻠﺔ ﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﻣـﺪﻯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮﻫـﺎ ﳏﻠﻴـﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻋﻘﻴﻞ ﺟﺎﺳﻢ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ) ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻧﻈﺮﻱ ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ( ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﳎﺪﻻﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ‪،‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻌ ﻗﺔ ﺑ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‬

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‫ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻊ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍ ﻔﻀﺖ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‪ :‬ﻋﻘﻴﻞ ﺟﺎﺳﻢ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﺳﺒ ﺫ ﺮﻩ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﻬﺑﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ) ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ( ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ‬

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‫ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ؟‬‫ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ؟‬‫‪ -‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ؟‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻹﳌﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﰲ ﺑﺎﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﶈﻴﻄﺔ ﺑﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ‬

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‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺴﲑ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﶈﻴﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺘﻤﻞ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺳﻨﻘﺘﺼﺮ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺄﳘﻴﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻗﺎﺻﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺘـﻬﺎ ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺳـﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺟﻪ ﻋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬

‫‪-‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻏﺒﺔ ﻓﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣـﻦ‬

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‫ﺃﺟﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﳜﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟـﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻜﻮﻧـﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺨﺒﺰ ﻣﺜﻼ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻘﺘﺼﺮ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻛﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻼﺑﺲ ﺍﳉﺎﻫﺰﺓ ﻟﻸﻃﻔـﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻬﺑـﺬﺍ ﳚـﺐ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍ ﺎﱄ ﻭﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻨﺔ ﺑـﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﰲ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒـﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﲟﻌﲎ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﳕﻮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻮ ﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺴ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻦ ﻭﺍﳉﻨﺲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺌـﺔ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﻬﻠﻜﺔ ﻟﻠﺴـﻠﻌﺔ‪،‬‬‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﻭﻳﺞ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﻮ ﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺇ ﺭﻳ ﻭ ﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺃﻥ ﺃﳕﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﻒ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳊﻀﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻌﺒـﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﻒ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﻠﻌﺎ ﻻ ﻳﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﺳﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﳊﻀﺮ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺬﻭﻕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫……ﺍ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺳـﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺌـﺔ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﻬﻠﻜﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺃﺩﻕ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﻩ ‪ -‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮ ﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﻮﻋﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻔﻴﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺃﺭﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴـﻜﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻹﲰﻨﺖ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺧﺸﺎﺏ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﻴﺢ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ‪ -‬ﺮ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺑ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔ ﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺰﻭﺡ ﺳﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﻒ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺪﻥ ﻭ ﺗﺮﻛﺰﻫﻢ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺳـﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﺷﺒﺎﻉ ﺣﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎ ﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻧﻪ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻷﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺜﻼﺟﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻔﺎﺯ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺴـﺎﻻﺕ‪.…،‬ﺍ‬‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻼﺕ ﻫﻲ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ‪ ،‬ﳍﺬﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻼﺕ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎﻥ‪.‬‬

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‫ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ‪:‬‬‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻣ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺯﻋﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻣﻮﺯﻋﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻹﻧﻔـﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺏ‪-‬ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎ ﺍﻟﻮﻃ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﰲ ﺍﳋﻄﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﳌﺒﺎﱐ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﻴﻴﺪﺍﺕ ﻟﻪ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻹﲰﻨﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺘﻮﺳ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﺃﺛـﺮ ﻣﻠﻤـﻮﺱ ﰲ ﺯﻳـﺎﺩﺓ‬‫ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻛﺎﻟﺴﻠﻊ ‪ -‬ﺍﳌﻌﻤﺮﺓ ﻣﺜﻼ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﻮ ﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﻠ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﻭﺭﺳﻢ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﺍﻹﻋﻼﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺬ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻩ‪ -‬ﻮ ﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﻠ ﺑﻨﻮﺩ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻔﻴﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺎ ﳜﺼﺺ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ‪:‬‬‫ﺃ*‪ -‬ﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺣﱴ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺘﻪ ﲝﺠﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ*‪ -‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺘ ﺔ ﻭﺍﳉﻤﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺎﺭﻱ ‪:‬ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺃ‪-‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺭﻗﻢ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﻼﺀ ﻭﲡﺎﺭ ﺍﳉﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺰﺋﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻩ‪ -‬ﻧﺴﺐ ﳎﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍ ﺕ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ‪:‬‬‫ﺃ‪-‬ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻜﻚ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺯﻋﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈﺎﺕ ﻭﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺒﻀﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻘﻮﻟﺔ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻧﻮﻋﻬﺎ ﻭﺗﻌﺮﻳﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻋﺪﺩﻫﺎ ﻭﻃﺎﻗﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺃﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﻭﻛﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﻣﺸﺎﻛﻠﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺄﺟﲑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻣﺘﻼﻙ ﺳﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﻛﻼﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﳉﻮﻱ ﻟﻠﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺮﻱ ……‪..‬ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻔﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ……‪..‬ﺍ‬ ‫ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺎﺭ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ‪:‬‬‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﳉﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺇﺣﻼﻝ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺝ ﺍﶈﻠـﻲ ﳏـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺳﻠﻮ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜ ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻣﺜﻞ ‪:‬‬‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﳌﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺸﺘﺮﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺒﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻔﻀﻠﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺩﻭﺍﻓﻌﻪ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﺍﺀ ؟‬ ‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﻫﻞ ﻳﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﺠﺮ ﳏﺪﺩ ؟‬ ‫ﻩ‪ -‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻪ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ‪ -‬ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻠﻪ ﻟﻺﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻭﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍ ﻜﻮﻣﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﻭﺿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﲑ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩ ﻭﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﲑﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼـﺪﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﺇﱃ‬‫ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﺍﳉﻤﺮﻛﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺘ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﺠﻤﻌﻮﻥ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻛـﺒﲑ‬

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‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺓ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﳉﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻷﻧـﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻼﺅﻣﻬﺎ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳕﻴﺰ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺼﺪﺭﻳﻦ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﲔ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻠﺠﺄ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﰲ ﲨﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧـﺎﻬﺗﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﱐ ﻭﺁﺧﺮ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﱐ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺰ ﺑﲔ ﻫﺬﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﻳﻦ ﻳﺄ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺟﺎﻫﺰﺓ ﻭﺳـﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻲ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻓﻴﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﱃ ﲨﻌﻬﺎ ﻭﺇﻋـﺪﺍﺩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﱐ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻀﻤﻨﺔ ﰲ ﲝﻮﺙ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺑﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺩ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﻭﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻪ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﻘﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺑﲔ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠـﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪ .١‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺸﺮﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺸﺮﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱ ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺸﺮﻫﺎ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﻫﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺸﺮﻫﺎ ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻷﲝﺎﺙ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﺸﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﺍﳌﺆﻫﻠﲔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻘﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﻮﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣـﺔ ﻭﺍﺠﻤﻟـﻼﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻘﺎﺭﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺪﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﺍﳌﻮ ﻋ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﺎ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﺪﻭﺑﻮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺯﻋﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻄﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻌﺘـﱪ‬ ‫ﻋﻈﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻊ ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺭﺿﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻭﺁﺭﺍﺋﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺣﺎﻬﺗﻢ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺮﺿﺖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻗﺎﻣﻮﺍ ﺑﺸﺮﺍﺋﻬﺎ ﺃﻡ ﻻ ﻭﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺭﺿﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻊ ﳍﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻭﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻭﺭﺃﻳﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺣﺎﻬﺗﻢ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺭﺿﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻊ ﳍﻢ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻭﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺑﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻭﺭﺃﻳﻬﻢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﻮﺍ ﻳﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﻮﻬﻧﺎ ﻭﺃﺳـﺒﺎﺏ‬‫ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻣﻮﻗﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻀﻌﻒ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬‫ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﲔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺭﺋﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﻣﻮﻗﻔﻬﺎ ﻭﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺑﻴﻌﻬﺎ‪.‬‬‫ ﻃﺮﻕ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺒﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻭﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻥ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﻴﺪ ﰲ ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﰲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺪﻓﺎﺗﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﺠﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺷﻜﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﺭﺟﻞ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﻭﺍﳌﻘﻮﺿﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ‪.‬‬‫ ﺃﻭﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹ ﺼﺎ ﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﰲ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻨﺸﺮﻩ ﺍﳍﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﻭﺍﻷﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻭﺗﺼﻨﻴﻔﻬﻢ ﻭﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﻬﻢ ﺣﺴـﺐ ﺍﳌﻮﻗـﻊ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﲰﲑ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺷﻌﺎﻉ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

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‫ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﰲ ﻭﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻦ ﻭﺍﳌﻬﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﳉﻨﺲ ﻭﺍﳉﻨﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺎﻓﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ …‪..‬ﺍ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺰﻭﺍﺝ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﻟﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻓﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭﺍﳌﺰﺍﺭﻋﲔ ﻭﺍﶈﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﻭﺃﻧﺸﻄﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﻋﺪﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻭﺣﺠﻤﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳉﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺰﺋـﺔ ﻭﺇﺣﺼـﺎﺀﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺍﳊﻴﻮﺍﱐ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﲡﺎﺭ ﺍﳉﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺰﺋـﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺗﺼﻨﻴﻔﻬﺎ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺴـﺐ ﳎﻤﻮﻋـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺻﻨﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻼﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻼﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻘـﻮﺍﻧﲔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺯﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻖ ﻭﻏﲑﻩ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ )ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ ( ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﳌﺼـﺎﺩﺭ‬‫ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻠﺠﺄ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻟﻴﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻣﻨـﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺪﻭﺭ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪ -‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ ‪ -‬ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺁﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﺼﺮﻓﺎﺕ ﻭﺳﻠﻮﻙ ﻭﻏﲑﻩ ﳑﺎ ﳛﺪﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺳﻠﻔﺎ ﻟﻴﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻳﺴﺘﻌﲔ ﻬﺑﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﲟﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻥ ﺃﻭ ﲨﻌﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻥ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺃﻭ ﳎﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﻭﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺸـﺘﺮﻭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻭ‬ ‫ﲡﺎﺭ ﺍﳉﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﲡﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺰﺋﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺭﺟﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻮﺯﻋﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻛﻘﻄﻊ ﺍﻟﻐﻴـﺎﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌـﺪﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺘـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻷﻃﺒﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺪﻭﺍﺀ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴـﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻛﺎﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﳌﻬﻨﺪﺳﲔ ﻭﺍﳌﻘﺎﻭﻟﲔ ﻭﺷﺮﻛﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻷﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻛﻤﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ ……‪.‬ﺍ‬ ‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻗﺮﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ‪-‬ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻘﺘﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺒﺤﺚ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﱐ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻮﺀ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴـﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻧـﺎﺕ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻓﻤﻌﲎ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ‪ -‬ﺃﻭ ﲟﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﻌﺎﻭﻧﻴﻪ‪ -‬ﰲ ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻝ ﺑﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﲡﻤﻴـﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻫﺪﻓﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﺘﺼﻞ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﳐﺘﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﲨﻌﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺍﻻﺗﺼـﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺘﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﺴﺠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺑﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﲟﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﳐﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﻣﺪﺭﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﰒ ﺗﻔﺮﻳﻊ ﻭﺗﺒﻮﻳﺐ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﲢﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﻼﺹ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﲟﺎ ﻳﻔﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﲟﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴ‬

‫ﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺑ ﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧـﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣـﺎﺕ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎ ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻌﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ‬‫ﺑﺈﻋﺪﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﻭﲡﻬﻴﺰﻫﺎ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻭﺍﺿﺤﺔ ﻭﳏﺪﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﳌﺘﻐﲑ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪: ١‬‬ ‫ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﳊﻘﺎﺋﻖ ‪ :‬ﻭﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺩﺧﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻦ‪ ،‬ﺍﳉﻨﺲ‪ …،‬ﺍ ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻵﺭﺍﺀ ‪ :‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻢ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌـﺮﻑ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻭﺟﻬـﺎﺕ ﻧﻈـﺮ‬‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺼﻰ ﻣﻨﻪ ﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻠﻪ ﻟﻌﻼﻣﺔ ﲡﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻌﲔ ‪.٢‬‬ ‫ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ‪ :‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺎﺭﺓ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺅﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺪﻭﺍﻓﻊ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﳓـﻮ‬‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺗﻔﻀﻴﻞ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﺁﺧﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳍﺎﺗﻒ‪ ،‬ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺍﻟ ﻻﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﰲ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻃـﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﻧﺰﻻﺀ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺎﺩﻕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﺮﺩﺩﻳﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻄﺎﻋﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺔ ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻭﳏﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴـﺚ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬‫ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﺠﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻭﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺮﻓﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻓﻌﺎﻝ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣـﻊ‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺠﻴﻞ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻧﺮﻯ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﻌﲔ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﲟﺎ ﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﻭﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﱪﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻄﻮﺭﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﻌﲏ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﲨﻌﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﲨﻴـﻊ ﻣﺴـﺘﻬﻠﻜﻲ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ) ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ( ﺃﻡ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﺓ ﻣﻨﻪ‪ .٣‬ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻻﺳﺘﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﳎﺘﻤـﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﰲ ﻛﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﰲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻳﻠﺠﺄ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻘﺼﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﲨﻴﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﻪ ﰲ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪-‬ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٤‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﻋﻘﻴﻞ ﺟﺎﺳﻢ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ‬ ‫‪ ٣‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤﻲ ﺣﻴﺪﺭ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺏ‪-١-‬ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻭ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ‪ :‬ﺃﻱ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﳝﺜﻠﻮﻥ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧـﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﻬﺔ ﺇﱃ )ﺳﻮﻕ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺷﺎﺕ ( ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﺳﻨﻬﻢ ﻋـﻦ ‪ ٥‬ﺳـﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﻬﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺎﻓﺮﻳﻦ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻫﻲ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻐﺎﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﻧﺊ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﱪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﳌﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻭﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺰ ﺑﲔ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺘﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ‪:١‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭ ﻭﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺔ ﳍـﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺲ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪-‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﺘﺴﻢ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺠﺎﻧﺲ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻟـﺪﻯ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺇﻋﻄﺎﺀ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻓﺮﺻﺎ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺄﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻘﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺠﺎﻧﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﻳﺘﻢ‬‫ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﺠﺎﻧﺴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﻃﺒﻘﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﲤﺜﻞ ﻛﻞ ﻃﺒﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻧﻔـﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻬﺑﺎ ﰲ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻻ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻔﺮﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻧﻔﺲ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻈﻬﻮﺭ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺑﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺛﺒﺎﺗﺎ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﰲ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﺜﻞ‪:‬ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻳﺘﻌﲔ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺻﺤﺔ ﻭﺳﻼﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﻼﺻﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨـﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺪﻻﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻼﻣﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺘﻌﲔ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺃﻛﺜـﺮ‬ ‫ﲤﺎﺷﻴﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﲟﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺗﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﲟﺎ ﻳﺘﻤﺎﺷﻰ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﻭ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﳚﺐ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻏﻮﺏ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺘﻤﻞ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻗﺘﻨﺎﺀ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻃﻠﺐ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﺃﻱ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺄﻗﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﳑﻜﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﺑﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ ‪٢‬ﻣﺜﻞ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﺮ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻛﺎﻑ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﳌﻴﺰﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬‫‪ ١‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٤‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤﻲ ﺣﻴﺪﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﻮﻥ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ‪.‬‬‫ﻭﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﳘﺎ ‪:١‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺌﻮﻳﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫‪n = z2. P (1-P) / (ea)2‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪ = n‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ = P ،‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﻭﺳﺔ‪ = z ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳓﺼﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ‪ = ea ،‬ﻫﺎﻣﺶ ﺍﳋﻄﺄ ﺍﳌﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪:‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪n =[ z.v / ea]2‬‬

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‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ = v‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬‫ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻧﻘﺼﺖ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﻴﺔ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ‪. n‬‬‫‪ -‬ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳋﻄﺄ ﺍﳌﺴﻤﻮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻗﻞ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫‪Document‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻳﻀﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪- Fournis yves , Les études de marchés , Dunod , Paris , 1995.‬‬ ‫‪- Negros yves , L'étude de marché , vuibert , Paris , 1987.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠ ﻋﻠ ﻣﻨﺘ ﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻴﺚ ﳚﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺤﺜﻮﺍ ﻋﻦ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﻷﺳـﺎﻟﻴﺐ‬

‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺄﻛﱪ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲡﻤﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺇﻳﻀﺎﺣﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ :‬ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠ‬

‫ﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﻟﻠﻄﻠ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺱ*‬

‫ﻉ*‬

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‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ‬

‫ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫) ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺎﺕ (‬

‫‪-‬ﺱ*‪-‬‬

‫‪-‬ﻉ*‪-‬‬

‫ﻙ*‬

‫ﺹ*‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬

‫‪-‬‬

‫*‪-‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬ ‫)ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ(‬

‫‪-* -‬‬

‫ﻝ*‬ ‫ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﳏﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ‬

‫‪-‬ﻝ*‪-‬‬

‫‪-١‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ‪-١‬ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ‪-١‬ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ‪-١‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻭ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ‬

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‫‪-٢‬ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪-٤‬ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫‪-٥‬ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ‬‫‪-‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺼﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﻕ‬

‫‪-٢‬ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ‪ -٢‬ﺍﳌﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺮﻯ ‪-٢‬ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩ‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺔ‬ ‫‪-٤‬ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﶈﺎﻛﺎﺓ‬ ‫‪-٥‬ﳕﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒ ﺫ ﺮﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍ ﻤﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻭ ﲡﺪ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ‬ ‫ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻻ ﲣﻠﻮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻮﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﶈﺎﺳـﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﻴﺪﺓ ﰲ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﻌﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻭ ﻫﻜﺬﺍ … ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻩ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﲟﺪﻯ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻃﺒﻴﻌـﺔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌـﻮﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﲏ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ‪ .‬ﻭ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻛﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻋﺮﺽ ﲢﻠﻴﻠـﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻷﻫﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺑﲔ ﻣـﻦ ﻛـﻞ ﻧـﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻹﻳﻀﺎﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ‬

‫ﻜﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳـﺘﻢ ﺍﺳـﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺘﲔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻭ‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳـﻴﻤﺎﺭﺱ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

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‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎ ﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺸـﻮﺭﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻣﺴـﺘﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﰲ ﻧﺸﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳ ﺍﺳﺘﻬ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﰲ ﺎﻟﺔ ﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻋﻤ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺒﺎ ﺮ ‪ :‬ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ ﻣﺴـﺘﻮﻯ‬‫ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﰲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻘﺒﲔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺗﲔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭ‬

‫ﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ = ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺮ ﻘﺒ ‪ x‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳ ﺍﺳﺘﻬ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﰲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻧﺸﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭ‬

‫) ﺍﻟﺴﻮ‬ ‫ﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ = ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ‪ x‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳ ﺍﺳﺘﻬ‬

‫(‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣ ‪ x‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺃﻳﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻳﻌﻴﺒﻬﺎ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻌـﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﻼﺀ ﺍﳌـﺮﺗﻘﺒﲔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ‪ .١‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﻮﺭﺓ ﻭ ﺣﺴـﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳ ﺍﺳﺘﻬ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﰲ ﺎﻟﺔ ﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧ ﻝ ﺍﻹ ﺼﺎ ﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﻮﺭ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘـﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺣﺴـﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬ‬

‫ﺍﻟ ﺎﻫﺮﻱ =‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎ ﺑﺄﻥ ‪ :‬ﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬ‬

‫ﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ‪ /‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‬

‫ﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ = ﻣﺘﻮﺳ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬ‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ =‬

‫‪ ، ٢‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٢‬‬

‫]‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫ﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‬

‫ﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ‪+‬‬

‫ﻢ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‬

‫[‬

‫‪-‬‬

‫]‬

‫ﻢ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬

‫[‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﻟﻘﺎ ﻤﺔ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻟﻌ ﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ )ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺎﺕ (‬

‫ﺸﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺗﺒﲎ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﲔ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﻃﻠﺐ ﺃﻱ ﺳـﻠﻌﺔ ﻭ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

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‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻠﻖ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﻃﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﻫـﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﻮﺻﻠﻨﺎ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻣﺮﻭﻧـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺃﻭ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ) ﺍﻟﻄﻔﻴﻒ ( ﰲ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﺎﺋﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻛﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻭ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻛﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﺧﺬ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻛﺄﺣﺪ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻹﳌﺎﻡ ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﲟﺮﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺑﺄﻥ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺗﻌﲏ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻠﺘﺒﺴﻴﻂ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺃﻭ ﳏﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﻟﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﳎﺎﻻ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﻫﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﻧـﻮﺍﻉ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺧﺎﺿﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﻭ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻮﻝ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ ﻭ ﺎﻻ ﺎ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺟﺎ ﺎ ‪ :‬ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﻡ = ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﰲ ﺃ ﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﻟﻠﻄﻠ‬

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‫ ﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺟﺎ ﺎ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﲬﺲ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﺗﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ‬‫ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻐﲑ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻞ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺭﻗﻤﻴﺎ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺎ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗـﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺩﺭﺟـﺔ ﺍﺳـﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻞ‪ ،١‬ﻭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻳﻀﺎﺡ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫ – ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ " ﺍﳌﺮﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎ " ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ) ﻡ ﻁ < ‪.( ١‬‬‫ ‪ -‬ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ " ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺮﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎ " ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺃﺻﻐﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ) ﻡ ﻁ > ‪.( ١‬‬‫ ‪ -‬ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ " ﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻓ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ " ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺢ ) ﻡ ﻁ =‪. ( ١‬‬‫ ‪ -‬ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ " ﻋﺪ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ " ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ) ﻡ ﻁ = ( ‪.‬‬‫‪ - -‬ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ "ﻻ ﺎ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ " ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺎ ﻻ ﻬﻧﺎﻳﺔ )ﻡ ﻁ = ﻣﺎ ﻻ ﻬﻧﺎﻳﺔ (‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٣٣‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﰲ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪،‬‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﻳﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻃﻔﻴﻔﺎ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺄﺧـﺬ ﻣﺮﻭﻧـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻡ‬

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‫ﺱ = ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ‬

‫ﺱ = ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ‬

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‫ﺱ‪١‬‬ ‫= ﻙ‪ - ٢‬ﻙ‪x ١‬‬ ‫ﻡ ﺱ = ﻙ‪ - ٢‬ﻙ‪ ١‬ﺱ‪ - ٢‬ﺱ‪١‬‬ ‫ﺱ‪ - ٢‬ﺱ‪١‬‬ ‫ﻙ‪١‬‬ ‫ﺱ‪١‬‬ ‫ﻙ‪١‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪ :‬ﻙ‪ = ١‬ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ ) ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ( ‪ ،‬ﻙ‪ = ٢‬ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺱ‪ = ١‬ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺱ‪ = ٢‬ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻼﺣﻆ ﺃﻥ ﻡ ﻁ ﺱ ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻡ‬

‫ﺱ =‬

‫ﻡ‬

‫ﺱ =‬

‫ﻙ‬ ‫ﻙ‪١‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻴﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﻡ‬

‫ﺱ‬ ‫ﺱ‪١‬‬ ‫‪x‬‬

‫ﺱ‬

‫)ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ‬

‫ﻙ‬ ‫ﻙ‪١‬‬

‫‪x‬‬

‫(‬

‫ﺱ‪١‬‬ ‫ﺱ‬

‫ﺱ‬

‫ﺱ‬ ‫‪-‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠ ‪:‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺳﻌﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﻛﻤﻴﺘﲔ ﰒ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﶈﺴﻮﺏ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳉﺪﻳـﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺳـﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺰﻳـﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻘﺼﺎﻥ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﺮﻑ ﻣﺮﻭﻧـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﰲ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻠﻴﺔ = ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺃﻱ ﻡ‬

‫ﻝ= ∆ﻙ‬ ‫∆ﻝ‬

‫ﻝ‪ ، ١‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻝ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻙ‪١‬‬

‫‪X‬‬

‫‪-‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠ ‪:‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺗﻌﺮﻑ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺔ ‪، cross – elasticity‬ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺔ ﻟﻠـﺘﻐﲑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻜﻤﻠﺔ ﳍﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ‬ ‫ﺑﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺔ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﻟﺘﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻃﻠـﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺘﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺘﺎﻥ )ﺷﺎﻱ ﻭﺳﻜﺮ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﳒـﺪ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ﻟﺘﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺔ ﻭﺳـﻌﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﺪﻳﻠﺘﺎﻥ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﺘﺎﻥ )ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﻟ (‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ = ﺻﻔﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺘﺎﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺘﺎﻥ )ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﻼﺟﺔ( ﻭﻟﻮ ﺃﻧﻨﺎ ﻓﺮﺿﺎ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻌﺘﺎﻥ )ﺃ(‪،‬‬ ‫)ﺏ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﺪﺭﺱ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ )ﺃ( ﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ )ﺏ( ﻓﺈﻥ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺎﻃﻌﺔ =‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ )ﺃ(‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ ﰲ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ )ﺏ(‬

‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻡ‬

‫=‬

‫∆‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫∆ﺱ‬

‫‪X‬‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫ﺱ‬

‫ﺏ‬

‫ﺃ‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﻭﲡﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻄﻮﺭ ﻋﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻃﺮﻳﻘـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲡﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺒﺤﺚ ﰲ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻌﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺩ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﲢﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺃﻛﺜـﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻣﺎ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﻨﻠﻘﻲ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹ ﺼﺎ ﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠ‬

‫ﻳﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﲢﺖ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺒﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺳـﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺮﻯ ﰲ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺷﻴﻮﻋﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳊﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﺍﻟﺴ ﺳﻞ ﺍﻟ ﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻛﺄﺣﺪ ﻃﺮﻕ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠـﻲ‬ ‫‪ ١ – ١‬ﻣﺜﻼ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺮﺓ‬ ‫)ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ( ﻟﺴﻠﺴﺔ ﻣﺘﺼﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮﺓ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ ١ ٥‬ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻼ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺇﻻ ﺇﺫﺍ ﰎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻼﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ trend line‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﺍﺳـﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒـﺆ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻭﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﻣﻌﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﳋﻄﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴـﻴﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻔﺘـﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻭﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ )ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ( ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﲡـﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺧﻄﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻤﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﲤﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪.‬‬ ‫=ﺃ‪+‬ﺏﺱ‬

‫‪ ،‬ﳝﺜﻞ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﺜﻞ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻌﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺃ ‪ ،‬ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻭﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺹ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺱ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺸﲑ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻴﻞ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺹ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻐﲑ ﺱ ﺑﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﺱ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﺜﻞ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻌﱪ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴـﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴـﺔ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫)‪ ،…،١،٢،٣،٤‬ﻥ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻠﺒﺪﺀ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﲢﺪﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﱵ ﺃ‪ ،‬ﺏ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺘﲔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻣﺞ ) ( = ﻥ ﺃ ‪ +‬ﺏ ﻣﺞ )ﺱ(‬

‫)‪(1‬‬

‫( = ﺃ ﻣﺞ )ﺱ( ‪ +‬ﺏ ﻣﺞ )ﺱ (‬

‫ﻣﺞ )ﺱ‬

‫)‪(2‬‬

‫ﺗﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﱵ ﺃ‪،‬ﺏ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﲔ ﺍﻵﺗﻴﺘﲔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺃ=‬

‫‪ -‬ﺏ ﻣﺞ ﺱ (‬

‫)ﻣﺞ‬

‫ﺏ = ﻥ ﻣﺞ ) ﺱ‬

‫) (‬

‫ﻥ‬

‫( – ﻣﺞ ) ﺱ ( × ) ﻣﺞ (‬

‫ﻥ ﻣﺞ ) ﺱ‬

‫( –‬

‫) ﻣﺞ‬

‫ﺱ(‪²‬‬

‫)‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃ ‪ ،‬ﺏ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ = ﻣﺞ )ﺱ‬

‫(‪-‬ﻥﺱ‬

‫ﻣﺞ )ﺱ ( ﻥ )ﺱ‬ ‫ﻭﺃ=‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺱ = ﻣﺞ ﺱ ‪ /‬ﻥ‬

‫= ﻣﺞ‬

‫‪/‬ﻥ‬

‫(‬

‫‪-‬ﺏﺱ‬

‫ﺱ‬

‫)ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳊﺴﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ‬

‫(‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ‪ :‬ﺹ = ﺃ ‪ +‬ﺏ ﺱ ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻋﱪ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.١‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻳﻀﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻳﺮﺟﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ ، ٢‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ﺹ ‪١٤ -١٤٤‬‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬

‫(‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟ ﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺪ ﻣﻦ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﰲ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ )ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ(‪ ،‬ﻭﳏﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﰲ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﻬـﺎ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ )ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ( ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻛﻞ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻭﺻـﺎﰲ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍﻬﺗﺎ ﳎﺘﻤﻌﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺇﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﺍﳌ ﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪INDICATOR‬‬

‫ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎ ﻭﺛﻴﻘﺎ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ‬

‫‪E CONOMIC‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﻭﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻧﻔﺲ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴـﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻻﺧـﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﲏ ﺑﺄﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻃـﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﲟﺠﺮﺩ ﻣﺮﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﲰﻨﺖ ﺑﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻖ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻹﺳـﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻴﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:١‬‬ ‫ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﺼﻠﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺣﺠﻢ )ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ‪ /‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ( ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﺭ =‬

‫ﻥ ﻣﺞ ﺱ‬

‫‪ ) -‬ﻣﺞ ﺱ ( )ﻣﺞ‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﺍﳉﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌ ]ﻥ ﻣﺞ ﺱ ‪ ) -‬ﻣﺞ ﺱ (‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺛﻼﺙ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺭ‪.‬‬

‫[‪x‬‬

‫(‬

‫ﺍﳉﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌ ]ﻥ ﻣﺞ‬

‫‪ ) -‬ﻣﺞ‬

‫(‬

‫[‬

‫*ﺍ ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭ ‪ :‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻗﻮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ ≥ 0,7‬ﺭ ≥ ‪١‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻃﺮﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫*ﺍ ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ ≥ 0,5‬ﺭ‬

‫≥ ‪0,7‬‬

‫*ﺍ ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺿﻌﻴﻒ‪ ،‬ﻭﳚﺐ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺭ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ‬

‫‪. 0,5‬‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ )ﺍﳋﻂ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ( ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃ‪ ،‬ﺏ ﺑـﻨﻔﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻ ﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ‪ :‬ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﻭﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ )ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ( ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﻓﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺳﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴـﺔ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬

‫‪ ، ٢‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٥١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻛﻞ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺘـﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﻜـﻞ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺘﻠﺨﺺ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻻﳓﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩ ‪ Multiple Regression‬ﰲ ﺍﻵ ‪:‬‬ ‫* ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﺗـﺪﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺱ‪١‬‬ ‫ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻙ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺱ‪٢‬‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﳌﻜﻤﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺱ‪٣‬‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺹ‬ ‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﻋﺎﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻋﻼﻥ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻌﺔ‬ ‫*ﲨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺗﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﳕـﻮﺫﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﲡﺎﻩ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﻄﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺍﳓﺪﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ)‪: (١‬‬ ‫= ﺃ‪-‬ﺏ ﺱ ‪ -‬ﺱ ‪ +‬ﺩ ﺱ ‪ +‬ﻫ ﻝ ‪ +‬ﺩ ‪+‬‬

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‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫‪+‬‬

‫‪+‬ﻡﻉ‪+‬‬

‫= ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃ = ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻻ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻡ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻭﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ ﺩﻫ‬ ‫ﺵ = ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﰲ ﺳﻨﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪.‬‬

‫)‪ (١‬ﻟﻠﻤﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ ﺇﱃ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃﲪﺪ ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﺑﺎﳐﺮﻣﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺰﻫﺮﺍﺀ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ ‪،‬‬

‫‪ ،١‬ﺹ ﺹ ‪٣ -٣‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻓ ﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻣﻨﺘ ﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻔﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﻴﻊ ﻬﺑﺎ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺗﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺑﻴﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﺠـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﺮ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻃـﻮﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻷﻫﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﺴﻌﲑ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪:١‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍ ﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺞ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﻻ ﻳﺘﺨﻠﻒ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﳊﺪﻱ ﻋـﻦ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺑﻞ ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻠﺠﺄ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬ ‫ﲟﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳊﺪﻱ ﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ) ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ (‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻱ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻫﻮ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺭﺑﺢ ﺭﻏﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻵﺭﺍﺀ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻳﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﲑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ :‬ﺑﺎﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗـﺔ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﻐﻠﺔ‬‫ﻭﺗﺸﻜﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻭﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺩﻝ = ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ‪ )/‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻮ ﺪ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺘ ﲑ ﻟﻠﻮ ﺪ‬

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‫‪depuis‬‬

‫= ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﺮﺑ ﺍ ﺪﻱ ﻟﻠﻮ ﺪ‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺍﳊﺪﻱ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻵﺧﺮ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﺘﺄﺛﲑ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﰲ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﳚﺐ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺟﻨﺒﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺟﻨﺐ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻭﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺝ ﺑﺎﻹﺿـﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ‬‫ﻫﺎﻣﺶ ﺭﺑﺢ ﻛﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺭﺑ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ = ﻡ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ‪ +‬ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﳌﺘ ﲑ ‪ +‬ﻫﺎﻣ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺷﻬﺮ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳊﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﲑ ﻋﻠ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎ ﺪ ‪ :‬ﺃﻱ ﺗﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪﺓ‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺜﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻄﺮﺣﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﳚﺐ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺳﻠﻊ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻭﺩﻋﻢ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٢٣‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺧ‬

‫ﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻳﺘ‬

‫ﻟﻨﺎ ﳑﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﻫﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻴﻢ ﻟﻠﻔـﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﺘﺴـﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪،‬‬

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‫ﻭﻛﺨﻼﺻﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻌﺮﺽ ﲨﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻧﺮﺍﻫﺎ ﺗﻔﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺇﻥ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﺠﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺑﻨﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻫﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻭﻝ ﻋﻨﻪ‪ .‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﻣﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﺎﻣـﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺍﺣـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﳏﻮﺭﺍ ﻫﺎﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻧﻪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺈﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻻ ﻳﻜﻔﻲ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻛﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﺑـﻞ‬ ‫ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻣﻬﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﺘﺨﺼﺺ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٥‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺇﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﻴـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻮﺝ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺳﻴﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺈﻧﺘﺎﺟﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﳍﺬﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻻ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻮﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﺑﻜﻴﻔﻴﺎﺕ ﺻﺮﻑ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻮﺝ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻓﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻃﻠﺒﺎ ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬

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‫ﻓﺮﺻﺎ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺟـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻬﺪﻑ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﳑﻜﻨﺎ )ﻗﺎﺑﻼ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ( ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳉﺎﻧﺐ ﻟﻪ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻛﱪﻯ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻧﻪ ﲟﻮﺟﺐ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﺪ ﰎ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﳌﺘـﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺸﺒﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ ﺇﺷﺒﺎﻋﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻬـﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﻘـﻮﻡ ﻬﺑـﺎ ﺧـﱪﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻔﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﲏ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﰲ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴـﺎ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﻣـﺎﺕ‬‫ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺰﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻛﺎﳌﺒﺎﱐ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﻛﺘﻜﻠﻔـﺔ‬‫ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﻋﻦ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺑﺪﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﰲ ﻭﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻭﺇﻥ ﺘﻮﻯ ﻭﻣ ﻤﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎ ﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎ‬

‫ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺪﻳﺪ ﺘﻠ ﺍ ﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﻧﺘﺎ ﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺒ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ )ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ( ﺫﻭ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺗﻮﺻـﻠﺖ ﺇﻟﻴﻬـﺎ‬

‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﲢﺪﺩ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ‬ ‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻊ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﱪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ ﺣﺠـﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺴﺘﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺪﻳﺪ‬

‫ﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎ‬

‫ﻦ ﰲ ﻏﲎ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﳓﻠﻞ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺘﻀﻤﻨﺎ‬

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‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ )ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ( ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﻭﺍﻷﺑﻌﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﻷﻟﻮﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻤﻴﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﻮﺍﺹ ﺍﳌﻴﻜﺎﻧﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳉﻮﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ )ﳏﻠﻲ ‪ +‬ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ( ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻋﱪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻴﺢ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻼﺋـﻢ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺳﻴﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻨﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﱪ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴـﺔ ﻟﻜـﻞ ﻣﻨـﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬‫ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻲ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﺠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺣﱴ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﻴﻨـﻬﺎ ﻬﺑـﺪﻑ ﺗﻠﺒﻴـﺔ‬‫ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻭﲡﻨﺐ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﻋﺎﻃﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺠﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺮﺍﻋﺎﺓ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻭﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺪ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ =‬ ‫ﻭ ﺘﺮ‬

‫ﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠ‬

‫ﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ‬ ‫‪ ) -‬ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﺎ‬

‫ﻧﺘﻴ ﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﰲ‬

‫ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺟ ‪+‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍ ﻤﻴﺪ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺪﻳﺪ‬

‫ﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎ‬

‫ﺎﻟﻴﺎ ‪ +‬ﺇﻧﺘﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎ (‬

‫ﺔ ﺍ ﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻴﺚ ﻜﻮﻥ ﺇﻣﺎ‬

‫ﻔﺮ‬

‫ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﻟ ‪-‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒ ﺫ ﺮﻩ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫‪ -١‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟ ﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺟﺐ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﲣﻀﻊ ﺑﺪﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺛﻼﺛـﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺟﺐ ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﰲ ﺍﺧﺘﻴـﺎﺭ ﺣﺠـﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺣﺠـﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻥ ﺃﻣﻜﻦ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻋﱪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻭﺍﻻﻛﺘﻔﺎﺀ ﲝﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﻓﻨﻴﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟ ﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ = ﺻﻔﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻌﲎ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻣﺸﺒﻊ ﻣـﻦ ﻫـﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨـﺘﺞ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺇﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻭﺑﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻭﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﺗﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ ﺃﻋﻠـﻰ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﻭﺭ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺧﱪﺍﺀ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺧﻠﻖ ﻃﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟ ﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﻟﺐ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻦ ﺗﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻟﻪ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻜﻦ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺿﻤﻦ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺇﻧﺘـﺎﺟﻲ‬

‫ﻣﻌﲔ ﻭﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﲣﻄﻴﻂ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻴﻨﺎ ﰲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺃﻭ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻏﲑ ﺫﻟﻚ‪ .١‬ﻭﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﰲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ )ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﺑﺴﻨﺔ ( ‪٢‬ﻛﺬﻟﻚ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،٣‬ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﺃﺯﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﻙ ﻭﺁﺧﺮﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ ‪ ، ١ ٤ ،‬ﺹ ﺹ ‪٤ ٢-٤٥٥‬‬ ‫‪٢‬‬ ‫‪Manual for the prepartion of Industrial Feasiblity Studdies UNIDO,ID/206,1978,PP.63-67‬‬ ‫‪٣‬‬ ‫‪Mihai Niculai , Méthodes d'organisation et planification industrielle, oran , centre de publication universitaire‬‬ ‫‪1979/ 1988 , p 155‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ‪:‬‬

‫)‪C P I = Fi / Ti ………………(1‬‬

‫‪CPI‬‬

‫ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻌﲏ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ : fi‬ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭ )‪(Fi‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ )‪ (Ft‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺃﻳﺎﻡ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﲏ ﺃﻭ )‪(Fn‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺃﻳﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻻﲰﻲ ‪،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳛﺴﺐ ﻛﻼﳘﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪Ft = ( Fc - ens Trp ) h / an‬‬

‫‪ :Fc‬ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﳌﱪﻣﺞ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :Trp‬ﻓﻬﻮ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﻠﻴﺢ ﺍﳌﱪﻣﺞ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻝ )‪(Fn‬ﻓﻴﺤﺴﺐ ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪Fn = ( ze . d . s) h / an‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪ :ze‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺄﺧﻮﺫﺓ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﺭ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺑـ ‪ ٣ ٥‬ﻳﻮﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : d‬ﻫﻲ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻔﺮﻗﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﺭ ﺑـ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ :s‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺍﳌﱪﳎﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪ ٢٤‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﻴﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻡ‪.‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟـ )‪ (Ti‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ﻓﻬﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ ١‬ﺗﻌﻄﻴﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻋﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﱪﻣﺞ ﺳـﻨﻮﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫـﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻵﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﻴﺰﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﳍﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﳒﺪ ﺻﻴﻐﺎ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺄﺧﻮﺫﺓ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳒﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﳒﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺩ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻪ‪.‬‬

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‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻳﻠ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻭﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻳﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴـﺔ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ‬

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‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﱪ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗـﺎﺩﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻳﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺫﺭﻭﺗﻪ ﰲ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻣﻌﲔ ﳌﺎ ﻳﺼﺎﺣﺐ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻮﲰﻲ ﻭﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﺼـﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳊﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﻟﻌﻼﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﰲ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﰲ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﰲ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺬﺭﻭﺓ ﻭﲣﻔﻴﻀﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻘﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺑﻌﺪﺩ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎ ﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻈـﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﱪﺍ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﻴﺔ‪/‬ﻳﻮﻡ‪/‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻉ‪/‬ﺷﻬﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺍﻫـﺎ‬ ‫ﺁﺧﺮﻭﻥ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗـﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴـﺔ ﻋﻨـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﲔ "ﻫﻲ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﰲ ﻣﺪﺓ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺃﺩ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﳑﻜﻨﺔ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺇﻧﺘـﺎﺟﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﲔ" ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻂ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺩ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﳚﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻔﺮﻗﻮﺍ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺪﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳌﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻊ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺷﺘﺮﺍﻃﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻟﺼﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻈﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻮﺓ ﻋﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺪﺭﺑﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭﺗـﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻣﺴـﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻘﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺍﺣـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﲏ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﺗﻌﲏ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺸـﺮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻋﻨﺎﺻـﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺆﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻌﻮﻗﺎﺕ ﳏﺘﻤﻠﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎ ﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻣﻄﺮﻭﺣﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺴﺘﺒﻌﺪﺍ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻨﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺮﺍﻛـﺰ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻨﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺴﻤﻮﺣﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻮﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲡﻨﺒﻬﺎ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﻐﻴﺐ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﰲ ﺇﺟـﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺒﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺭﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﺋﻌﺔ ﻭﺗﻌﻄﻞ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻧﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ = ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ‪ -‬ﺍﳌﺴﻤﻮﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻟﺰﺍﻣﻴﺔ‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘ ﻠﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻻ ﲣﻀـﻊ‬ ‫ﻷﻱ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﲣﻀﻊ ﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻓﻨﻴﺔ ﲝﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﳑﻜﻦ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻐﻠﺔ = ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻐﻠﺔ ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻐﻠﺔ = ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘ ﻠﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻐﻠﺔ ﺇﱃ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟ ﺍ ﺪ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎ ﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﻋﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﺗﻔﻮﻕ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺮﻏﺐ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﺃﻱ‬‫ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﻮﻱ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻦ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴـﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﺮﺍﻛـﺰ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪-‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻃﻠﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻄﻞ ﻣﺆﻗﺖ ﻟﻺﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺴﺒﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻂﺀ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺺ ﺍﳌﺆﻗﺖ ﰲ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻭﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻷﺣﻮﺍﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻃﺎﻗﺔ ﺿﺎﺋﻌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻨﺪﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ ﻟﻌـﻞ ﻣـﻦ ﺃﳘﻬـﺎ‪:١‬‬ ‫ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻗﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗـﻊ‬‫ﺃﺛﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺰﻳﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻫﺎﻣﺶ ﻣﻌﲔ ﳌﻼﻓﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺼـﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ‪ +‬ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻗﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ‪ +‬ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﲏ ﻟﻺﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺃﺣﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ‬‫ﺃﻥ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﺣﺠﻤﺎ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍ ﻔﺾ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻋﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳊﺪ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ‬‫ﻟﻺﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺗﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﲣﻔﻴﺾ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻓﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﲔ ﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪.‬‬‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻋﻴﺎ‪.‬‬‫ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪.‬‬‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻣﻌﲔ‪.‬‬‫ﻣﺪﻯ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻟﻠﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪.‬‬‫‪-‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺧﺺ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﺃﺣﻴﺎﻧﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺼﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺮﺍﺧﻴﺺ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﺃﻧﻈﺮ ﰲ ﺫﻟﻚ ‪ :‬ﺃﲪﺪ ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﺑﺎﳐﺮﻣﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻫﺮﺍﺀ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ ‪،‬‬

‫‪،١‬ﺹﺹ ‪٣ -٣‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺘﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻـﺔ ﺑـﺎﳌﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠـﺔ ﻭﺗﻜﻠﻔﺘـﻬﺎ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﺄﺛﲑﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻭﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ) ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﻳـﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﻗـﻊ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﻗـﻊ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ ﰒ ﺍﳊـﻲ ﺩﺍﺧـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﻭﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﲟﺎ ﰲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻭﻣﻌـﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻭﺗﻜﻠﻔـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻠﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻭﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺴـﻠﻌﺔ ﺳـﺮﻳﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻟﺒﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻧﻘﻠﻬﺎ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻛﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﲰﻨﺖ ﻭﺍﳊﺪﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻔﻀـﻞ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌـﻮﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﻭﺗﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﻮﺭﺩﻳﻦ ﰲ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿ ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﻔﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎ ﺔ ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ‪:‬‬‫ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺃﻱ ﻟﻪ ﺗـﺄﺛﲑ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﻜﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﰲ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻠﻌﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻣﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪﺍ ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻮ ‪:‬‬‫ﺗﱪﺯ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﻣﻦ ﲡﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺰﻳﻦ ﻭﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺫﻭﺍﻕ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ‬ ‫ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻔﻀﻼ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻟﻠﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳـﻮﺍﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻧﺊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺪﺧﻞ ﲢﺖ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪،‬ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗـﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻂ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﰲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﺷﺮﻧﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﺎ ﻦ ﻮﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻬﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﺺ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺎﳌﻬﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼﺼﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻭﳚﻌﻠﻪ ﻣﺆﺛﺮﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﺎﻫﻴﻚ ﻋﻦ ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭﺧﻄﻮﻁ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺎﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﺄﺧﲑ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺍﻋﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭﺍﳊﻀﻮﺭ ﲝﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﻔﺴﻴﺔ ﺟﻴﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻﺑﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺆﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ ﺗـﺪﺭﻳﺐ‬ ‫ﻣﻬﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻠﺰﻣﻬﺎ ﻛﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﲤﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻫﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﻷﺣﻮﺍﻝ ﳚﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﲤﺜـﻞ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻫﺎﻣﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﻴﺪﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻓﻀـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﻗﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﻴﺪﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﺧﺎﺻـﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﳏﻄﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﻣﺪﻯ ﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻭﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬

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‫ﻓﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻩ ﻭﺻﺮﻑ ﺻﺤﻲ ﻭﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﻄـﺮﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﺑﻚ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟ ﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷ ﺮ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﻓﻘﺪ ﻳﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﻴﺎﺣﻴﺎ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺍﺗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺫﻟـﻚ‬ ‫ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺰﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺴﻴﺞ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﻮﻃﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﻻﻧﻜﺸـﲑ‬ ‫ﺑﺈﳒﻠﺘﺮﺍ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘـﺔ ﺗﺘﻌـﺮﺽ ﻟﻠـﺰﻻﺯﻝ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳍﺰﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺿﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱪﺍﻛﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻳﻔﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﰲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻬﻧﺎﺭ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻻ ﳜﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻠﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺃﺣﻴﺎﻧﺎ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﻣﻦ ‪:‬‬‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻔﻀﻞ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻃﻨﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻵﻣﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸـﺮﻃﺔ ﻭﺍﳊﺮﺍﺳـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻃﻔﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻔﺴﺮ ﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﰲ ﻋﻮﺍﺻﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ‪،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﲢﺮﺹ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻃﻦ ﺑﻌﻴﺪﺍ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﺿﻄﺮﺍﺑﺎﺕ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﺎﺯﻋﺎﺕ ﻃﺎﺋﻔﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻨﺼﺮﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺮﻭﺑﺎ ﺃﻫﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺩﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻕ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﻣﻦ ﻭﺯﻧﺎ ﻫﺎﻣـﺎ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

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‫ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺴﲑﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻮﺍﻓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪:‬‬‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺴﲑﺍﺕ ﻭﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﺃﻭ ﲣﻔﻴﻀﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺩﻋﻢ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﺎﻡ ﰲ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺣﻴﺎﻧﺎ ﺗﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﺰﻭﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﺧﺘﺎﺭﻭﺍ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻌﻬﻢ ﰲ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻗﺪ ﲤﻨﺢ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﻭﺣﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﻭﺿﻤﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﺘﻤﻴﺰﺓ ﰲ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻟﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺇﻗﺎﻣـﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﻬﺗﻢ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻭﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﱪﺯ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﳍـﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﻓﺰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺗﺸـﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻔﻪ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻃﻦ ﰲ ﺑﻌ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﺗﻘﺎﺱ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻃﻦ ﰲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻃﻦ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﻮﻃﻦ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻴﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﰲ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻷﻗﺎﻟﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺑﺎﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﺄﳘﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻗﻠـﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻃﻦ ﻳﻘﺎﺭﻥ ﺑﲔ ﻧﺼﻴﺐ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﰲ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻌـﲔ ﺇﱃ ﻧﺼـﻴﺒﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﺄﺳﺎﺱ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻃﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪: ١‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻃﻦ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎ ) ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋ ( ﰲ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻣﻌ‬

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‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ‬ ‫= ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﰲ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬

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‫ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺗﻔﻜﲑ ﰲ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﻣﺪﻳﻨﺔ ﻣﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤـﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜـﻦ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻃﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻮﻃﻦ ﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ = ﻋﺪﺩ ﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻻ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‬

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‫* ﻓ ﺫﺍ ﺎﻥ ﻧﺎ ﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﻭﺍ ﺪ ﺤﻴ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﲢﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺼﻴﺐ ﻧﺴﱯ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‬ ‫ﻻ ﻳﻨﺼﺢ ﺑﺈﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻭﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬

‫* ﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺎﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻃﻦ ﺃ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍ ﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﳛﺼﻞ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺼﻴﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺈﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴـﺘﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﰲ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﻼ ﳚﺐ ﻭﻻ ﻳﻨﺼﺢ ﺑﺈﻧﺸـﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻃﻌﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻹﻳﻀﺎﺡ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻳﺮﺟﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ ، ٢‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫* ﻭﺃﺧﲑﺍ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺎﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻃﻦ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍ ﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺼﻴﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﻮﻃﻨﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﰲ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﲝﺚ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﲢﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ‪ ،‬ﻳـﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻘﻖ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻫـﻮ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻳ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳉﺰﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲢﻮﻱ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺿـﻮﻋﺎﺕ‬

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‫ﻭﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺃﻭﳍﻤﺎ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺛﺎﻧﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﺑﺎﻷﻭﻝ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻤﺜـﻞ ﰲ ﻧـﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻩ ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻣﻄﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﺗﺪﻭﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﺃﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﲢﻜﻤﻪ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻣﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳـﺘﻄﺮﺡ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻘﺼﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻮ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻧﺴﺐ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻭﻛﻞ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻬﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻭﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻹﻧﺘ ﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‬

‫ﻳﺮ ﺒ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺑﺎﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﺰﻳﻦ ﳊﲔ ﺗﺴﻮﻳﻖ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌـﲏ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ‬

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‫ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﺗﲑﺓ ﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﱪﺓ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺑﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻣﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﲝﺘﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﳋﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪.‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴـﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﲰﺎﻙ ﺍﶈﻔﻮﻇﺔ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﳌﺪﺓ ﺃﺷﻬﺮ ﻗﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎ ﺑﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺪ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻪ ﺭﻏﻢ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻭﻧﺆﻛﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﺗﲑﺓ ﺃﻣﺮ ﻧﺴﱯ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﺤﺘﻢ ﺗﻌـﺪﻳﻞ ﻣﻮﺍﺻـﻔﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻦ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻵﺧﺮ ﺣﱴ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺭﻏﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﺜـﺎﻝ ﺫﻟـﻚ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﺰﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﺃﻭﳍﻤﺎ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﲰﻨﺖ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻜﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﻭﻝ ﻭﻟﻜـﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺗﻪ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺤﺼﺮ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻸﻭﻝ ﻭﺗﻨﺤﺼﺮ‬ ‫ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺰﻳﺞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺜﺎﱐ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻥ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﺑﻨﻮﻋﻴﻪ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:١‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﲟﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﳕﻄﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﳕﻄﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﺇﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺑﲔ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٥‬ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﺍﻹﺣﻼﻝ ﳋﻄﻮﻁ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻧﺒﻴﻞ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﻡ ﺷﺎﻛﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢١٥‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﻭﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺑﻌﺪﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎ ﻟﻨﻤﻄﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﻄﻮﻁ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺁﻻﺕ ﻭﻣﺎﻛﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﳑﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﻳﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﲏ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺧﻄﻮﻁ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﻜﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺒﻘﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﲤﺜﻞ ﻣﺪﺧﻼ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﲏ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﳋﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺑﺎﳌﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﻭﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ) ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﲢﺖ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳋﻂ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻥ ﺃﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﺍﳋﻂ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﱂ ﻳﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻫﺬﺍ‬‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺗﺮﺍﻛﻤﺖ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﰲ ﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﻣﺎ ﻭﺗﻌﻄﻞ ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﳋﻂ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺳﺮﻋﺔ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻋﺪﺍ ﺁﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﳍﺎ ﻧﺼﻒ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﳊﺘﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺗﺮﺍﻛﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻵﻟﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻌﻄﻴﻞ ﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺁﻻﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳋﻂ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻵﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫـﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨـﻮﻉ ﻣـﻦ‬‫ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻗﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﺓ ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻭﲟﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻗﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻬﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﻟﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻠﺰﻣﻮﻥ ﻹﺟـﺮﺍﺀ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻋﻤﺎﻻ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﲔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﺎ ‪،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺼﻨﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻤﺎ ﻛـﺬﻟﻚ‬‫ﻭﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﻡ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺻﻐﲑﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﲢﺖ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺻﻐﲑﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻦ ﳐﺎﺯﻥ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﲢﺖ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺼـﻒ‬‫ﻣﺼﻨﻌﺔ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺘﻤﻴﺔ ﺗﺮﻙ ﻣﺴﺎﻓﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﺴﻌﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﳊﻔﻆ ﺍﳌـﻮﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺮﺍﻛﻤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﰲ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺄ ‪:‬‬ ‫*ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﺴﺮﻋﺔ ﺍﻧﺴﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺼﻨﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺁﻟﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻐﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﲢﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻨﻊ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺻﻐﲑﺍ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻹﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﻬﻼ ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﺍﻹﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﳚﻨﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻧﺴﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻫﻮ ﺿﺎﺑﻂ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﻬﻨﺎﻙ ﺭﻗﺎﺑﺔ ﺫﺍﺗﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻷﻥ ﺇﺑﻄﺎﺀ ﺃﺣﺪﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻵﺧﺮﻳﻦ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺼﻨﻊ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺃﺻﻐﺮ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻱ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻟ ﻻﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺭﻭﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻬﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻗﻮﻯ ﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻛﻔـﺎﺀﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺧﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺳﺮﻋﺘﻬﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺇﺑﺮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﳘﻴﻤﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ ، ١ ٥ ،‬ﺹ‬

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‫ﻭﺗﺘﻠﺨﺺ ﻋﻴﻮﻬﺑﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻵ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺳﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻻﻧﻜﻤـﺎﺵ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻄﻠـﺐ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ‪،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺗﻌﻄﻞ ﺃﻱ ﺁﻟﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻮﻗﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﰲ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﲏ ﺗﻮﻗﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺃﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﺍﳋـﻂ‬‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻳﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺁﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﺑﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟـﺘﻔﻜﲑ ﰲ‬‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺣﻼﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﺪﻳﺪ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﻤﺮﻫﺎ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﺑﻔﻌﻞ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻲ ﺍﳌﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﺐ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻭ‬‫ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﻬﺗﻢ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻌﻄﻴﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﳑﺎ ﳚﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻔﺎ ﺑﻌﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻴﲔ‬ ‫ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﻢ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺭﺋﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺃﺛﺮﻩ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺍﻹﻧﺘ ﺎ‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺑﺎﻷﻭﺍﻣﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺭﻏﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺀ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺑﺪﺀ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻞ ﺃﻣﺮ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻌﻪ ﻛﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﱘ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺗﺘﻐﲑ ﻣﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻵﺧﺮ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﲞﺎﺻـﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺼﻨﻊ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻦ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺋﺮﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﳏﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﺰﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺑﻌﺾ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺳﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻭﺯ ﺭﺍﻳﺲ ﺃﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺮ ﺳﻴﺪﺱ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﲟﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺁﻻﺕ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺁﻻﺕ ﳝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﺣﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﻫﺮﺓ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺰﻳﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﲡﻬﻴﺰ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻮﺿﻮﺡ ﰲ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻃﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺻﻔﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻹﺻﻼﺡ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺼـﻨﻊ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﳛﺘﻮﻱ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳـﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﲏ ﲣﺼﻴﺺ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﺪ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻢ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻨـﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻳﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﰲ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﺪ ﺑﺘﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻟﻠﺴـﻠﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ‬‫ﲝﺠﻢ ﻣﻌﲔ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺃﺫﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ ﻭﻋﺎﺩﺍﻬﺗﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﻌﺪﻡ ﲣﺼﻴﺺ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺪﺩﻫﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻭﻓﺮ ﰲ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ‪ ،‬ﻏﲑ ﺃﻥ‬‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﻻ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻹﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺎ ﻭﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ‪.‬‬‫ ﰲ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﺩﺍﻓﻊ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﳎﺎﻻ ﻹﻇﻬـﺎﺭ‬‫ﻣﻬﺎﺭﻬﺗﻢ ﻭﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺪﻳﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺘﺨﺼﺺ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﳎﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﻘﺪﺓ ﻭﺧﺎﺻـﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟـﺔ‬‫ﻭﺟﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﺸﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﳑﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﻳﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺃﻥ ﳒﺎﺡ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺑﺎﻷﻭﺍﻣﺮ ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺘـﻮﺍﻓﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫*ﺗﻌﺪﺩ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻭﺃﺷﻜﺎﻟﻪ ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻴﻞ ﺭﻏﺒﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴـﺚ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻـﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺞ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺗﻌﺬﺭ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﻵﻻﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﺸﻒ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻷﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺛﻘﻴﻞ ﺍﻟـﻮﺯﻥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻌﺬﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻵﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻦ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻛﺒﲑ ﰲ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻠﺰﻡ ﻋﺰﻝ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﻋـﻦ ﺍﻟـﺒﻌﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺧﺮ ﻛﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺑﺲ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺎﻛﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺍﻹﻧﺘ ﺎ‬

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‫ﻤﻊ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺑﲔ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋﲔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﳘﺎ )ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺑﺎﻷﻭﺍﻣﺮ‬

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‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻼﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻵﺧﺮ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺃﻭ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﲔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﺘﻢ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻄﻲ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ )ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ (ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺇﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻷﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ )ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺑﺎﻷﻭﺍﻣﺮ (‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺘﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻗﻤﺸﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﳝﻲ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻗﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺜﻼﺟﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺧﺎﺹ ﰲ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﳚﻤـﻊ ﺑـﲔ‬ ‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺃﺳﻠﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨ ﻄﻴ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺑﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴـﺚ ﺗﻜـﻮﻥ ﻗـﺪ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﺗﻀﺤﺖ ﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻧﺴﺐ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻭﻛﻞ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﺍﳋـﺪﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻬﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺃﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻓﻨﻴﺎ ﻛﻞ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻭﻣﻮﻗﻌﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﺗﺄﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﺎﺋﻒ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﻴﺔ ﺑﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻭﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﳑﺮ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺳﻂ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻛﱪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺗﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﳑﺮ ﰲ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻴﺴﲑ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺃﺟﺰﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻤﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﳑﺮﺍﺕ ﻓﺮﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻬﺎ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻟﻸﻗﺴﺎﻡ‪.‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻌﲎ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﺘﻄﻠ‬

‫ﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻮ ﻋﺔ ﺴ‬

‫ﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺴﺎ ﺔ ﺍﻹ ﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺳـﻴﺘﻢ‬

‫ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺒﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﻗﺴﻢ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﺍﻵﻟﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﰲ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻵﻟﺔ‪ ،١‬ﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻄﻠ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺮﺍ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﳌﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍ ﻻﺕ ﻭﺃﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘ ﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺤ‬

‫ﻘ ﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺴ ﺎ ﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺼ ﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﻭﺃﻣ ﺎ ﻦ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺨ ﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎ ﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﳌﺮﻭﺭ ﻭﺳﺎ ﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺫﻟ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺎﺕ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﺒﺪﺋﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻻﺑﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺮﺍﻋ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻄﻴ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭ ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎ ﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﺴﻢ ﺃﻥ ﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﺴ ﺎ ﺔ ﺍﻟ ﻣ ﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍ ﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻢ ﻭ ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎ ﺎﺕ ﺍﻟ ﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺳﺤﺒﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎ ﻥ‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﻭ ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎ ﺔ ﺍﻟ ﻣﺔ ﻟﻮﻗﻮﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍ ﻻﺕ ﻭ ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎ ﺔ ﺍﻟ ﻣﺔ ﻟﻮﺿ ﻊ ﺍﶈﺮ‬

‫ﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎ ﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺸ ﻴﻞ ﺍ ﻻﺕ ﻭ ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎ ﺔ ﺍﻟ ﻣﺔ ﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎ ﻞ ﺍﳌﺴ ﺎﻋﺪ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴ ﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎ‬

‫ﻭ ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎ ﺎﺕ ﺍﻟ ﻣﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎ ﺔ ﺍﻟ ﻣﺔ ﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﳌﻨ ﺘﺞ‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﺍ ﻻﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺼﻨﻴﻌﻬﺎ‬

‫ﻳﻨﻬﺎ‬

‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺧﺮﻭﺟﻬﺎ ﺇ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻋﻨﺪ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻺﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍﻋﺎ ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﻭ ﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠ ﻣﻦ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺇ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﺃﻳ ﺎ ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﺮ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺇ‬

‫ﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻷﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺪﻑ ﺍﻹ ﺮﺍﻑ‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﻌﺰﻝ ﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻻ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺇﻋﺎﻗـﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﻛـﺔ ﺩﺍﺧـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﺧﲑﺍ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻣﺎ ﻦ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺍﻓ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﻳﺸ ﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄ ﻴ ﺍﻟ ﺪﺍﺧﻠ‬

‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻣﻜﻦ ﺃﻣﺎ ﻦ ﺭﺍ ﺔ ﻟﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎ ﻥ ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﻦ ﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻻﻧﺘ ﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﻦ ﻟ ﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻓﻴﻬﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺪﺍ ﻭﺃﻣﺎ ﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟ ﺍ ﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺃﻓ ﺮﺍﺩ‬

‫ﺍ ﺮﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻴﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍ ﺎﺕ ﻹﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟ ﺍ ﺮﻳﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻞ ﺫﻟـﻚ ﻳﻨﻄﺒـﻖ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬

‫‪ ، ٢‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢ ٤‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﺪ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻛﻠﻬﺎ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﻭﻧﺸﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺪﻳﺪ ﺘﻠ ﺍ ﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻞ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴـﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻵﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﳚﺐ ﺗﻮﻓﲑﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺿـﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﺴـﻬﻴﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪: .‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺘﻮﻗ‬

‫ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍ ﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬

‫ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﲟﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﳌﺨﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻲ‬

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‫ﻭﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻃﺎﻗﺘـﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﺸـﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟـﺘﻘﲏ ﺍﳌﻘﺘـﺮﺡ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳚﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﳛﺘﺎﺟﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﰲ ﻣﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎ ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﳛﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﺎﺋﻒ ﻭﺍﳌﻬﻦ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻭﺷـﺮﻭﻃﻬﺎ‬‫ﻭﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﲔ ﻟﻺﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻭ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺎﱐ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨـﻴﲔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺼـﲔ ﺑﺘﺮﻛﻴـﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺗﻮﱄ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﲔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﲔ ﳌﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻴـﻒ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻌـﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﲔ ﻟﻺﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻬﺮﺓ ﻭﻏﲑ ﻭﻧﺼـﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻬﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﻼﺣﻈﲔ ﳌﻌﺎﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﲔ ﻹﻳﻔﺎﺩﻫﻢ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﺭﻳﺐ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﻢ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻢ ﺃﻥ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺆﻻﺀ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻨﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ ﺑﺪﺀ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﰲ ﺣﻜﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﻗﺘﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﲔ ﰲ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‬ ‫ﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫‪ :‬ﻨ ﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺧ ﻝ ﻓﺘﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺆﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﺌﻮﻭﻥ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺇﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺷﺮﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺷﺮﺍﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺆﻭﻥ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸـﺆﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻓﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺎﱐ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﻤﻮﺩ ﺳ ﻣﺔ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌ ﻳ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻮﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﰲ ﻣﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸ ﻴﻞ ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨ ﻴﻤ ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﲔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﲢﺪﻳـﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻇـﺎﺋﻒ‬‫ﻭﺍﳌﻬﻦ ﻭﺍﳌﻬﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻤﻲ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺼﺎﺻﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺆﻭﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺍﺟﺒﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺟﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻭﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﳕﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺗﺴﻮﻳﻖ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻐﻔﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻭﲟﻬﺎﺭﺍﻬﺗﺎ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻋﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻲ ﻋﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻜﺎ ﻦ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟ ﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﻳﻨﺒ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻃﺎﻗﺘﻪ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺜﲑﺍ ﻣﺎ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﲤﺘﺔ)‪ (Automatio‬ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻬﺑﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻟﻴﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ) ﺍﳋﺎﺻـﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻜـﺎﺋﻦ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ (ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻛﻠﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻷﲤﺘﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍ ﺣﺎﲰﺎ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﻠﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺗﻘﻨﻴـﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑـﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻭﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻌﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﺧﺘﻨﺎ ﻗﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﻭﻃﺮﻕ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻼﺕ ﻭﻭﺳﺎﺋﻂ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟـﱵ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻌﲔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺎﻛﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﺣـﺪﺓ‪،‬‬ ‫ﳑﺎ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺟﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ ﻹﳒﺎﺯ ﺃﻳﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.٢‬‬

‫‪Franklin Moor, Manufacturing Management, Richard‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻟﻠﻤﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﻻﲤﺘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪D.Irowin,Inc.Homewood ILINIOS‬‬ ‫‪٢‬‬ ‫‪Raymord R. Mayer, production Management , McGrawi-Hill Book Company N.Y.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳏﻠﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻮﱄ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﺎ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﳌﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻗﻄﻊ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻀـﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻨﺎﺳﺒﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﻄﻮﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻼﻣﺔ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﲑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺺ ﺃﻭ ﺭﺩﺍﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﰲ ﲡﻬﻴﺰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﻘﻄﻊ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳـﻼﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺃﻭﻻ‪.‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪ .‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﻔﺮﺽ ﺍﳊﺮﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺑﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﻗﻄﻊ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﳐﺰﻭﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻳﻜﻔﻲ ﻟﺘﻐﻄﻴﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ‪ ٣‬ﺇﱃ ﺃﺷﻬﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺣﱴ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺎ ﻭﺿﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﻻ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﺳﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺭﺃﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻭﺃﻧﻮﺍﻋﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴـﺚ ﻛﻮﻬﻧـﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﻨﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻧﺼﻒ ﻣﺼﻨﻌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺼﻨﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺘﻬﺎ ﻟ ﻻﺕ ﻭﻟﻺﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻮﺩﺓ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣـﻊ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺿﺮﺏ ﺍﳋﺎﻣـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﰲ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﳓﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌـﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋـﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻺﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺍﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻳﻠﻌﺐ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﰲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺗﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴـﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻤﺎ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،١‬ﻭﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴـﻨﻮﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻣﺪﺍﺩ ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﺿﻤﺎﻬﻧﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻏﲑ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﳍﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﺒﻐـﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻨﺎﻭﳍـﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻹﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺃﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﺘـﻮﻓﺮ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺛﺮ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺛﺮ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻼﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻭﻛﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻻﺑﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺸﲑ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻣﻦ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﳏﻄﺎﺕ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻟﻠﻔﻀﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲞﺎﺻﺔ ﻟﻐﺎﺯ ﺛﺎﱐ ﺃﻭﻛﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺑﻮﻥ ﻏﲑ ﲢﺴﲔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻜﻔـﺎﺀﺓ ﻭﺯﻳـﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﰲ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ 2‬ﻭﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻗﺎﺳﻢ ﻧﺎﺟﻲ ﲪﻨﺪﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١‬‬ ‫‪Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the state of the Environment (Paris 1991) Ch.2‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﻧﺘﺎ ﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﳍﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺘﺴﻔﺮ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴـﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﻓﻨﻴﺎ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺪﺭﺝ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺧﻄﻮﻁ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺣﻠﻪ ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﻭﺟﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻮﲰﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﻜﻞ ﺃﺑﻌﺎﺩﻩ ﻭﺗﱪﻳﺮ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻌﲔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻏﲑﻩ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳـﻠﻮﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﻺﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻛﺜﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺃﻭ ﻛﺜﻴﻒ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳـﺒﺔ ﻭﻧـﻮﻉ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻭﻛـﺬﻟﻚ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﲝﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻧﻌﻄﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎ ﺑﺎﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺛﺎﺙ ﻭﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﻫﻢ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﺼﺐ ﰲ ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘ ﻜﺎﻟﻴ‬

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‫ﺘ ﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺘ ﻬﻴ ﺍﺕ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ - ١-١‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﺩ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻀﺮﻭﺑﺎ ﰲ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻮﻗـﻊ ﺍﳌﻘﺘـﺮﺡ‬ ‫ﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺠﻴﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ - ٢-١‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﱐ ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﱐ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺎﱐ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﳋﺮﺳﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﻠﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﻄﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﱐ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺮ ﻣﻀﺮﻭﺑﺎ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺎﱐ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣-١‬ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻗﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﻵﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻤﻠـﻚ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺄﺟﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻛﻞ ﺁﻟﺔ ﻭﺗﻀـﺎﻑ ﺇﱃ ﺳـﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﺳـﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﻤﺮﻛﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﻭﲡﺎﺭﺏ ﺑﺪﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ - ٤-١‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺛﺎﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻗﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻭﻣﻮﺍﺻﻔﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳـﻂ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٥-١‬ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺈﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﺘﻀﻤﻨﺎ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﳉﻤﺮﻛﻴﺔ ﻭﺧﻼﻓﻪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ ﻣﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺳﻴﺲ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺼـﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴـﺠﻴﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﺮﺧﻴﺺ ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﺪﺭﻳﺐ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻏﲑﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻳ ﺍﻟﺘﺸ ﻴﻞ ﻟﺪﻭﺭ ﻭﺍ ﺪ )ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ( ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺑﻨﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺟﺐ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻗﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺣﱴ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴـﻮﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺼﻴﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺃﻱ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﻣﻊ ﺳﻨﺔ ﺃﻭﱃ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺘﻔﺼﻴﻼﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻏﱪ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‬

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‫ﻭﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻺﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﳝﻜـﻦ ﺗﻘـﺪﻳﺮ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻮﺩﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ‬ ‫ﻧﺪﺭﺟﻬﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪ ‪:‬‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﺎ ﻭﺭﺩ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﲞﺼﻮﺹ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﳌـﻮﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻧﻘﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﲣﺰﻳﻨﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺍ ﻓﻼ ﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩ ﻭﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﻛﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻞ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺤﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺣﱴ ﺇﻳﺼﺎﳍﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺼﻨﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﳚﺐ ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﺤﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻤﻴﻊ ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺎﻬﺗـﺎ ﻭﻣﻮﺍﺻـﻔﺎﻬﺗﺎ ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺳﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻣﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﻇﻔﲔ ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣـﻊ ﺍﻷﺧـﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﺍﳌﺴﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩ ﻟﻸﺟﻮﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻘـﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﻴﻨـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﺷﺎﺕ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺫﻟﻚ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﶈﺮ ﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﲢﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﶈﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲟﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻛﻴﻔﻴـﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺼـﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺎﺕ ﻧﻘﻠﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺼﻠﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻹﻫﺘ ‪:‬‬‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻻ ﻬﺗﺘﻠﻚ ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﻬﺗﺘﻠﻚ ﻭﺗﺘﻘﺎﺩﻡ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻮﻗـﺖ‬ ‫ﻭﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ‪ ،‬ﻭﳏﺎﺳﺒﻴﺎ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻫﺘﻼﻙ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺩﻡ ﺗﻀﺎﻑ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ ﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻳﻊ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﲢﺪﺩ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻳﻦ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻻ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻪ ﺑﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳـﻊ‬ ‫ﲢﺪﺩ ﻣﺜﻼ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻮﻑ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﺋﻢ ﻬﺑﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺠـﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺩﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ‪.‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﲢﺪﺩ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻘـﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺗﺄﺟﲑﻫﺎ ﻭﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺻﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﲔ ﻋﻠﻴﻬـﺎ ﻭﻋﻤـﻮﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﻼﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳊﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻋﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻭﳚﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﻓﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺘ ﻣﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟ ﺮﺍ ‪:‬‬‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﳚﺐ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺨﺰﻭﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺒﲔ ﺃﻗﺴـﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺷﺘﺮﺍﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻡ ﺩﻓﻌﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺘﻤﺲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺫﻛﺮﺕ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﻛﻠﻬﺎ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﺗﻨﺒﺆﺍﺕ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺑﻌـﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﻻ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺻﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﻲ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺑﺪﻭﻧﻪ ﺳﺘﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﺯﻣـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺧ‬

‫ﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﻠﺼﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻳﺘﻤﺜـﻞ ﰲ ﻛـﻮﻥ ﺃﻥ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﰲ ﳎﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﰲ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻧﻪ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﺘﺠﺴﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﻀﺢ ﺍﶈﺎﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺒﲔ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟـﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺘﺒﻊ ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻨﺴﻰ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﺍﺧﺘﻴـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻬﺪﻑ ﺇﱃ ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻞ ﺗﺄﺩﻳـﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻇـﺎﺋﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﻴﺔ ﺑﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻭﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻻﺭﺗﻜﺎﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﰲ ﺍﳉﻬﺪ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻭﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻣﺜﻠﻰ‪.‬‬ ‫ﰒ ﻧﺄ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﺁﻻﺕ ﻭﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﻭﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳒﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻛﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺍﻷﺧﲑ ﻧﺘﺤﺪﺙ ﻋﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺇﻋﻄـﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧـﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳـﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﰲ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

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CERIST

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺹ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺔ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻳﻠﻲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﰒ ﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺑﺎﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺤﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﻟﻠﻬﻴﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻭ ﲟﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬‫ﻭﻗﺒﻞ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻩ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﲔ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺗﺘﻢ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﺳـﺘﺎﺗﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮﻭﺽ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﻭﻃﺮﻕ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﻇـﻞ ﺍﳌﺨـﺎﻃﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻢ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻓﺮﻭﺽ ﻏﲑ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻓﺴﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﰲ ﺴﺔ ﻣﺒﺎ ﺚ ﻫ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮ‬

‫ﻤﺎ ﻳﻠ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺎﺭﻳﺔ ) ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧ ﺮ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ( ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﰲ ﻞ ﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺪ ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﺑﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺪﺑﲑ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺑﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﳊﺎﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑـﺔ ﻭ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﻐﻼﳍﺎ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ‪.‬ﻭ ﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻗﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻭ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻭ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻮﺟﺰ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻗﺼﲑ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‬

‫ﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﺑﺎﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻗﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻛﻤﺼﺪﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴـﺔ‬

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‫ﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎ ﻗﺼﲑ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﺘﻌﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﺑﻪ ﰲ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻻ‬ ‫ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻗﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﻻ ﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺎﺭﻱ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻭ ﻫﻮ ﺍﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻗﺼﲑ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻟﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺳـﻴﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺳﻠﻊ ﻳﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻷﺟﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﲟﻌﲎ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻵﺟﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺭﺩﻳﻦ ‪ .١‬ﻭ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋـﻦ ﺳـﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﰲ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻨﺔ ﺣﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺑﺸﺮﺍﺀ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳـﺘﻢ ﺗﻨﻔﻴـﺬ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺇﻣﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﻭ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺃﻳﺔ ﺿﻤﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﺒﻴﺎﻟـﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴـﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺑﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻘﺪ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻮﺭﺩﻳﻦ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻋﻨـﺪﻣﺎ ﻻ ﻳـﺮﺗﺒﻂ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺎﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻵﺟﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺟﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺳﻮﻑ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺮ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﺣﻜﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﱐ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﻣﻜﻠﻔﺎ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻐﺎﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ﺣﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺑﺎﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻵﺟﻠـﺔ ﺑﻨﺴـﺐ ﻛـﺒﲑﺓ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺍﻹﺳﺎﺀﺓ ﺇﱃ ﲰﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰎ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺑﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﺳـﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﺗﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﻤﺼﺪﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻗﺼﻮﺭ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﻻ ﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻔﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ) ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ( ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﻭ ﻳﻠﺰﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﺪﺍﺩﻩ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻳﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﲝﺮﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺷﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﰲ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻭ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺘﻌﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﰲ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻗﺪ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﺗﻠﺠﺄ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﰲ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﻠﺼﻌﻮﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻬﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻃﺎﳌﺎ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺗﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻄﻠﺒـﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻮﻙ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﺸﺘﺮﻁ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺣﺘﻔﺎ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺑﺮﺻﻴﺪ ﳎﻤﺪ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﳑﺎ ﻻ ﺷﻚ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻳﻘﻒ ﻋﻘﺒﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ ﻛﻤﺼﺪﺭ ﻫﺎﻡ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺘـﺎﱄ ﻻ ﺗﻘﺘﺼـﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﺜﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺗﺘﻌﺪﺍﻩ ﻟﺘﺸـﻤﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔـﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻧﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺫﺍﻬﺗﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺋﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﰲ ﻣﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋـﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺼـﺮﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺎ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼـﻐﲑﺓ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳـﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﲟﺮﻛﺰ ﻣﺎﱄ ﻗﻮﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺗﻄﻠﺐ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﻘـﺪﱘ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺮﻫﻮﻧﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺿﺎﻣﻦ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ﺗﻮﻓﲑﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺍﺳﺘﻄﺎﻋﺖ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻜﻴﺔ ﻗﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻓﺈﻬﻧﺎ ﺳـﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﺤﻤﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻋﺎ ﻭ ﺷﺮﻭﻃﺎ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻣﺼ ﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‬

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‫ﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺟﺰﺀﺍ ﻣﻜﻤﻼ ﻟﻠﻬﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤـﻮﻳﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ .١‬ﻭﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺷﻜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻠﻲ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻮﺟﺰ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳ ﺔ ‪ :‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻛﻤﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻣﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﳊﺎﻣﻠﻬﺎ ) ﺃﻱ ﺃﻧﻪ ﳝﻠﻚ ﺣﺼﺔ ﰲ ﺭﺃﺱ ﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ( ﻭﻳﺘﻤﺘـﻊ‬‫ﺣﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﻌﺪﺓ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﺃﳘﻬﺎ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺣﻖ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻮﻳﺖ ﰲ ﺍﳉﻤﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﻬﺎ‪.‬‬‫ ﲢﻮﻳﻞ ﻣﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻠﻜﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻦ ﻳﺸﺎﺀ ﰲ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ…‪..‬ﺍ ‪.‬‬‫ﻭﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻛﻤﺼﺪﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ‪٢‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻻ ﺗﻨﺸﺊ ﺃﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻡ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻟﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ )ﻋﻜﺲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ (‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٥‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﻣﺘﻮﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﻌﻢ ﺃﲪﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺎﻣﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢ ١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫‪ -٢‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺭﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﰲ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﳏﺪﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺗﺪﻋﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﳌﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻫﺎﻣﺶ ﺍﻷﻣﺎﻥ ﺿﺪ ﺍﳋﺴﺎﺋﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎ ﺍﶈﺘ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﻏﺐ ﰲ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺎﻹﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﻪ ﺗﱪﻳﺮ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺑـﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﺘﺠﺰﺓ ﻛﻤﺼﺪﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘـﺎﱄ‬ ‫ﺗﺰﻭﻳﺪ ﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻭﻓﺮﺍﺕ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻟـﺔ ﺣﻴﻨﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮﺓ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺣﻬﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮﺓ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﲪﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﰲ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﻴﺘﻬﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌـﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺃﻥ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﲤﺜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻣﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﳊﺎﻣﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺣﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﺑﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﺍﳊﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ‬‫ﻬﺑﺎ ﺣﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ ﻣﺎ ﱂ ﻳﻜﻦ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻧﺺ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻼﻑ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﻋﻘﺪ ﺍﻹﺻﺪﺍﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺰ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﻬﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ ﳎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﻖ ﳊﺎﻣﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﰲ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﳎﻤﻌﺎ ﰲ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﲰﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻭﺣﺎﻣﻠﻲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﳛﺼﻠﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﲞﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻓـﺎﺋﺾ‬ ‫ﺭﺑﺢ ﻛﺎﰲ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪. ١‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟ ﻞ ‪ :‬ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳍﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﰲ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳏـﻞ‬‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﻭﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﲔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻳﻌﲔ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺧـﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺳﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺛﻼﺛﲔ ﺳﻨﺔ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﳌﺘﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻛﻤﺼﺪﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠـﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻠﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ‪ :‬ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺟﺰﺀﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪ ،‬ﺗﺼﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻣـﻮﺍﻝ‬‫ﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻧﻔﻘﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ .٢‬ﻭﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١-٥‬ﺳﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻀﻤﻮﻧﺔ ﺑﺮﻫﻦ ﺃﺻﻮﻝ ‪ :‬ﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪ ﺩﺍﺋﻨﺎ ﻋﺎﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼـﻔﻴﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﻟﻪ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺻﻮﻝ ﺑﺬﺍﻬﺗﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﻣﻦ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻞ ﺃﻧﻈﺮ ‪ :‬ﺩ‪ .‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﺳﻠﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﻫﺪﻯ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻼﺣﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﻧﺊ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﺳﺎﻧﺎﺕ ‪،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺹ‬ ‫‪٣‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﺃﻭﻳﺲ ﻋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻧﻂ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻬﺎﺝ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻷﺳﺲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﺔ ﺹ ‪٢ ٥‬‬

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‫‪-٢-٥‬ﺳﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﻀﻤﻮﻧﺔ ﺑﺮﻫﻦ ﺃﺻﻮﻝ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﻣﻦ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺘﻠﻜﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻳﻨﺺ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪ ﺫﺍﺗﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﻣﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﻭﻓﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣-٥‬ﺳﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ‪ :‬ﺗﻠﺘﺰﻡ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺑﺪﻓﻊ ﻓﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﻓﻘﻂ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﻓﻊ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﲟﺎ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻧﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻻ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ‪:١‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﺓ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻻ ﻳﺸﺎﺭﻙ ﲪﻠﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺪ ﺃﻗﻞ ﳑﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﲣﺼﻢ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺔ ﳊﺎﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﻋﺎﺀ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳋﺎﺿﻊ ﻟﻠﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﻛﻤﺼﺪﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﻬﺑﺎ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

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‫‪Document‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻣﺘﻮﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﱄ‪ ،‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﻌﻢ ﺃﲪﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺎﻣﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ﺹ ‪٢١٣-٢١٢‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﻣﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻫﻮ ﻣﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺣﺪﻳﺚ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻬﻮ ﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺪﺭﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴـﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﺑﺪﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪ . ١‬ﻭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ‪ :‬ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﻣﺎ ﳚﺐ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﻳﺪﻓﻌﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺃﻛﺎﻥ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻗﺮﻭﺽ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﳑﺘـﺎﺯﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺭﺑـﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﳏﺘﺠﺰﺓ ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﰲ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻌﲏ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋـﺪ ﺍﻟـﺬﻱ ﻳﻄﻠﺒـﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻭﻥ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺼﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺘﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻋﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺳﻮﻑ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻧﻮﻉ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻜ ﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﻌﺮﻑ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳚﺐ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻤﻮﻟـﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺣﱴ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻔﺎ ﺑﺎﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮﺓ ﳊﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﲑ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻫﻨـﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺮﺿﲔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋـﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻋﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻘﻮﻝ ﺑﺄﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ‪ = Kd :‬ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ‪ /‬ﺃﺻﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﺇﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﳑﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﰎ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﲰﻴﺔ ﻭ ﰎ ﺳﺪﺍﺩﻩ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﲰﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺗـﺎﺭﻳﺦ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ‪ -‬ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ‪ -‬ﻫﻲ ﻣﻌـﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋـﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻮﻇﻒ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺒﻠ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ ﳚﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﶈﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ ﻭ ﺇﻻ ﳊﻘﺖ ﳊﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴـﻬﻢ‪.‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫‪-‬ﻣﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻹ ﺪﺍﺭ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻘﺪ ﺃﻱ ﻗﺮﺽ ﺃﻭ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺳﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﻭ ﻋﻤﻮﻻﺕ ﻭ ﺇﻛﺮﺍﻣﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗـﺆﺩﻱ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻟ ﺮﻳ ‪:‬‬

‫ﳌﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻓﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺎﺋﺰﺓ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻭﻋﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺃﺻـﺒﺢ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﲞﻔﻀﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﺎﳌﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻴﺰﺓ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺣﺎ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺿﺮﺍﺋﺐ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺸـﺮﻛﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺣﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻠﻦ ﺗﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻴﺰﺓ ﺇﻻ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﱯ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺘﺮﺣﻴﻞ ﺍﳋﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻟﻸﻣﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﻠﻒ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪EZIA SOLOMON ,"Théorie de la gestion financière" , Ed Dunnod , PARIS , 1972 , p 1‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ﺑﻌ ﻭ ﺃﻭ ﺼﻢ ‪:‬‬

‫ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺳﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﲰﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻛﺄﻥ ﺗﺼﺪﺭ ﺑﻌﻼﻭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﲞﺼﻢ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺽ ﻟـﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﻜﻮﺑﻮﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﲤﺜﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫])‪(1- t ) [R + n (F-P‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ : E‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﲰﻴﺔ ‪ P ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﺻﺪﺍﺭ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ : t‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ : n‬ﻣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ : R‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ‪.‬‬

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‫– ﺍﻟﻘﺮ‬

‫)‪½ (F + P‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺍ ﻢ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻗﺪ ﻳﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺳﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻪ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺒﻠ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻛﻘﺮﺽ ﰲ ﻫﻴﻜـﻞ‬ ‫ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺴﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﱘ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺇﺣﻼﻟﻪ ﺑﻘﺮﺽ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﻛـﺬﻟﻚ ﻓـﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ ﲤﺜﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫)‪(1-t‬‬

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‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ : R‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ‪،‬‬

‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬

‫= ‪after – tax cost of debt‬‬

‫‪ : P‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﺻﺪﺍﺭ ‪ : t ،‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻜ ﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎ‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ ﻳﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻮ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺟﺐ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻤﻮﻟﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ ﺣﱴ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻔﺎ ﺑﺎﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﳊﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ‪.‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻘﺴﻮﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﲢﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻊ ﺳﻬﻢ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﳑﺘﺎﺯ ﻣﻦ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺃﻱ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﳐﺼﻮﻣﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﻹﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻢ ﺇﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﺪﺕ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪DP‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬

‫= ‪Kp‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ = Kp‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ = DP‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻢ ) ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺑﻮﻥ (‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ = P‬ﺻﺎﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻭ ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻻ ﺗﻌﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﺍﳉﺎﺋﺰﺓ ﺍﳋﺼـﻢ ﻣـﻦ ﺃﺭﺑـﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﺑﻌﻜﺲ ﻓﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ‪ .١‬ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ ﻻ ﲣﻀﻊ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﱯ ﺃﻱ‬ ‫ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻻ ﲢﻘﻖ ﻭﻓﺮﺍ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻴﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲪﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ ﻫﻮ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻟﻠﺮﺑﺢ ﻭ ﻟﻴﺲ ﺗﻜﻠﻔـﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺑﻌﻜﺲ ﻓﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻛﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﻜ‬

‫ﻠﻔﺔ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﻌﺮﻑ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺟﺐ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻤﻮﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻟﻠﺤﻔﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻫﻨﺎ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﺘﺠﺰﺓ ﻭ ﺳﺘﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬

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‫ﳌﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺛﺮﻭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﲪﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﲔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺇﺻـﺪﺍﺭ ﺃﺳـﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲝﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻫﺆﻻﺀ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴـﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴـﻬﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻦ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﲪﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﲔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﺍﳉﺪﺩ ﺳﻴﻜﺘﺴﺒﻮﻥ ﺣﻖ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﺟﻨﺒﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺟﻨﺐ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﲔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﺍﳉﺪﺩ ﺳﻴﻜﺘﺴﺒﻮﻥ ﺣﻖ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻮﺯﻋﺔ ) ﺍﶈﺠﻮﺯﺓ ( ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﺣﻖ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺃﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﺼﻔﻴﺘﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﶈﺼﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﺇﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ‪،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻪ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻫﻨﺎ‬ ‫ﳚﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ – ﺇﺫﺍ ﺣﺪﺙ ﺫﻟﻚ – ﻋﺪﻡ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﻋﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻟـﻪ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﻻ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺑﻘﺪﺭ ﻛﺎﻑ ﳝﻨﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺺ ﻭ ﺇﺿﻌﺎﻑ ﻣﻮﻗﻒ ﲪﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﲔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻤﻮﻟﺔ ﺑﺈﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﺎﻓﻆ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻢ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﻐﲑ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﺆﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻄﺮﻭﺡ ﻫﻮ ﻛﻴﻒ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺴـﺎﺅﻝ ﺗﺘﻤﺜـﻞ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ =] ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻢ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻢ )ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﺑﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ( [‪ +‬ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎ ﺍﶈﺘ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻘﺼﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﶈﺘﺠﺰﺓ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺯﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲪﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﻞ ﳛﺘﻔﻆ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻭ ﻳﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻩ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻌﺘﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﶈﺘﺠﺰﺓ ﻻ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﳍﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻟﻜﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩ ﻏـﲑ‬ ‫ﺻﺤﻴﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻃﻼﻕ ‪ .‬ﻷﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻫﻲ ﺃﺻﻼ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻖ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺣﺘﺠﺎﺯﻫﺎ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻌـﺪ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﲰﲑ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٣١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻣﻮﺍﻓﻘﺘﻬﻢ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻮﺍﻓﻘﺘﻬﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﻬﻢ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻣـﺔ ﻻ ﻳﻘـﻞ ﻋﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﳛﺼﻠﻮﻥ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ – ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ – ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﶈﺘﺠﺰﺓ ﻷﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﺒﻠﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﳌﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﶈﺘﺠﺰﺓ ﲣﻀﻊ ﻟﻠﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪ ، ١‬ﻓﻴﺠﺐ ﲣﻔﻴﺾ ﻣﺒﺎﻟ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﲟﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﶈﺘﺠﺰﺓ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﶈﺘﺠﺰﺓ = ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻢ )‪ -١‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ( ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻢ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟ ﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﻣﺘ ﻮﺳ ﺍﻟﺘ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺤﺔ ﻟ ﻣﻮﺍﻝ‬

‫ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﺪﺩ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﺓ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻛﻤـﺎ‬

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‫ﺭﺃﻳﻨﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ ‪ .‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ‪ -‬ﻭﲡﻨﺒﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ – ﺃﻥ ﺗﺆﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺤـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻣﻮﺍﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺟﺐ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﰒ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﻓﻴﻪ ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻧﺼﺒﺢ ﰲ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﳝﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺰﻳﺞ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ – ﺃﻭ ﺑﻌﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺮﺟﺢ ﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻭ ﺫﻟـﻚ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺮﺟﻴﺢ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﻨﺤﻪ ﻭﺯﻧﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﶈﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻧﻮﻉ = ﻣﺒﻠ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﻣﻌﲔ ‪ /‬ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺤﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺼﺪﺭ = ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ x‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ‬

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‫‪Document‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﲰﲑ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٣٥‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﻬﺑﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻘﻖ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺭﺑﺢ ﳌﺎﻟﻚ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻀﻢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﻔﺔ‬

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‫ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻗﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﳑﻜﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻷﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻗﺼـﻰ‬ ‫ﺣﺪ ﳑﻜﻦ ‪.١‬‬ ‫‪.٣‬ﻭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺳﻨﻌﺮﺽ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺆﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺘﻜﻮﻳﻦ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺣﱴ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺜﻼ – ﺇﻥ ﺃﻣﻜﻦ – ﻭ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺎ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﰲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻏﲑ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﺬﺍﺕ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺴـﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ‪ ،٢‬ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻢ ﰲ ﻇـﻞ ﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻧﻔﻀﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻘﻖ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻫﻴﺎﻛﻞ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺭﺱ = ) ﺹ ‪ -‬ﻑ ( )‪ - ١‬ﺽ ( ‪ -‬ﺕﺭ ‪ /‬ﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺭﺱ = ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺹ = ﺻﺎﰲ ﺭﺑﺢ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻑ = ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺽ = ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺕﺭ = ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺎﺯﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻥ = ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ ﺍﳌ ﻣﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﺍﳌﻘﺼﻮﺩ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻟﻸﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺷـﻴﺔ ﻣـﻊ‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﻭ ﻛﺸﺮﻁ ﺃﺳﺎﻱ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺻﻮﻝ ﺛﺎﺑﺘـﺔ ﻭ ﺃﺻـﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺔ ) ﻛﺎﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺰﻭﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ( ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻭ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ ‪ .٣‬ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺇﱃ ﻛﻮﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺑﻴﻊ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﳛﺼﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﻧﻘﺪﻱ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺟﺎﻉ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘـﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺗﻌـﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺮﻑ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﳌﻦ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺑﺴﺪﺍﺩ ﻣﺎ ﺃﻗﺮﺿﻪ‬ ‫ﲟﻌﺪﻝ ﺃﺳﺮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺇﻻ ﺗﺮﺗﺐ ﺃﻭ ﻧﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺳﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻬﻢ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١‬‬ ‫‪ ٣‬ﲰﲑ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٤‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻭ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺳﻠﱯ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲝﻴﺚ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻋﺎﻃﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻻ ﺷﻚ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﲣﻔﻴﺾ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻳﺘﻌﲔ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﺪﺍﻭﻟﺔ ) ﺍﳌﺆﻗﺘﺔ ( ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻗﺼـﲑ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﻤﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻭ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

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‫ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﻀﻴﻞ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻛﻞ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﻣﻘﺘـﺮﺡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﰲ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌـﺘﻐﲑﺓ‬ ‫ﻭﲟﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﻭﳛﻘﻖ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﺩ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﳋﺴـﺎﺋﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻬﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺿﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪.‬‬‫‪ -‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳ‬

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‫ﻟﻘﺪ ﻧﺎﻝ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﺎ ﺧﺎﺻﺎ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻛﺘﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﰎ ﲝﺜﻪ ﻭﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺘﻪ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪ .١‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺳـﻮﻑ ﻳﺘـﺄﺛﺮ ﺟﺰﺋﻴـﺎ‬ ‫ﲟﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﲤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻊ ﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺎﳍﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﺼﺎﺣﺐ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﰲ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻷﺭﺑـﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻞ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻔﻀـﻴﻞ ﺍﳍﻴﺎﻛـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﳜﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻲ ﻭﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺇﱃ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻠﻜﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻮ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﳕﻮ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻛﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻢ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺽ ‪ ٢‬ﻫﻮ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﺭﺧﺼﺎ ﻭ ﻧﻔﻌﺎ ﻭ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧـﺖ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌـﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﲰﲑ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٥٣‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺒﲔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﻓـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻟﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻬﻪ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺎﺕ ﻟﺴﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻜـﺲ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ ﺗﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﻟﺼﻌﻮﺑﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﺪﺍﺩ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎ ﺎ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺃﻥ ﲢﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺘﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻔﻴﺪ ﺟﺪﺍ ﺇﺑـﺮﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺟﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺗﺒﻴﲔ ﺍﳋﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻛﻴﻔﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ‪،‬ﻭﺗﻌﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳉﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻛﱪﻯ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﺋﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠـﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳉﺪﺍﻭﻝ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ :‬ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎ ﺎ ﰲ ﻣﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺇﻧﺸﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻮﻙ‬ ‫ﺃ – ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‬

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‫‪ -٢‬ﻗﺮﻭﺽ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﻮﺳـﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‬ ‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻗﺮﻭﺽ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﺟـ‪ -‬ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﶈﺘﺠﺰﺓ‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﻃﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﺇ ﺎﻋﻴﻞ ﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺪ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒ ﺫ ﺮﻩ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪١‬‬

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‫‪ -١‬ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﱐ‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ‬ ‫ـﺰﺓ‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺃﺟﻬــ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔــﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳــﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫‪ -٥‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

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‫‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﺧ ﻝ ﻣﺮ ﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸ ﻴﻞ‬

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‫‪ -١‬ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ‬

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‫‪ -٢‬ﺇﻋﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ـﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﻣﺼــ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‬ ‫ـﺪﺓ‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﺃﺭﺻــ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﺇ ﺎﻋﻴﻞ ﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺪ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑ‬

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‫‪ -١‬ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻗﺼـﲑﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ‬ ‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺝ – ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‬ ‫ﺩ – ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ‬ ‫‪ -٥‬ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﳊﺎﻣﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻬﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ‬‫ ﺍﻟﺮﺻﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺮﺣـﻞ ﻟﻠﺴـﻨﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳉﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻛﱪﻯ ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺒﲔ ﻭ ﺑﺪﻗﺔ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻭ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﺳـﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﻓﺘـﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻭ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬ﻭ ﺗﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﻫـﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﳘﻴـﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧـﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳋـﺎﺹ ﺑﻔﺘـﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺸـﻐﻴﻞ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺒﲔ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺗﻪ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳉﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﻻﺑﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﺮ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺀ ﺑﺎﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﲢﻘﻖ ﻓﻴﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﻭﻋﺠﺰ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﱴ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻼﺣﻘﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﺧﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺣﲔ ﳛﻘﻖ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺣﺎ ‪.‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﺋﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺪ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﲤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻗﺼﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫) ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧ ﺮ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‬

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‫ﻹﺟﺮﺍ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﻖ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﱵ‬

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‫ﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬ﺃﻱ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻬﺗﻢ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻭﻻ ﺃﺛﺮﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻬﻧﺎﺋﻲ ﻣـﻦ ﺣﻴـﺚ ﻗﺒـﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺭﻓﻀﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻔﻀﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﻣﺎ ﳛﻘﻘﻪ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺑﺘﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺗﻨﻔﻴـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺸﻐﻴﻠﻪ‪ ،١‬ﻭﲡﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺭﻓﺾ ﺃﺣـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪،‬ﺑﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻔﻀﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﰲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻗﻴـﺎﺱ ﻣﺘﻮﺳـﻂ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﻔﺮ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﲣﺎﺫﻫﺎ ﻛﺄﺳﺎﺱ ﻟﻼﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣـﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺳـﻮﺍﺀ‬

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‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ) ﺧﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﺔ ( ﻣﻨﺬ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻭﻟﻐﺎﻳﺔ ﻬﻧﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ‪ .‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪ ،‬ﳑـﺎ ﻳﺴـﺘﻠﺰﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻭﺗﺄﺛﲑﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﲡـﺮﻱ ﰲ ﺑﺪﺍﻳـﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺳﻴﺲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻮﻑ ﲡﺮﻱ ﰲ ﻭﺳﻂ ﻭﻬﻧﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﳍـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﰲ ﻋﺮﺿﻨﺎ ﻫﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﺳﻨﺴﻠﻂ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻮﻋﲔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﲟﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﻱ ﻣﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣـﻦ ﺃﻫـﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻧﺬﻛﺮ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ‪ :‬ﰲ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺗﺄﺳﻴﺲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻌﲏ‪ ،‬ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﻣـﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣـﺔ ﻟﺒـﺪﺀ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺃﺟﺎﺯﺗﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺷﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﲣﻄـﻴﻂ ﻣﻮﻗـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺋﻪ ﻭﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩﻩ ﻟﻠﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﻳﱯ ﺃﻭﻻ‪ ،‬ﻭﺛﺎﻧﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﻣﺰﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﺃﻧﺸﻄﺘﻪ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ‪ . ٢‬ﻭﺧﻼﻝ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ )ﻭﺗﺴﺠﻞ ﰲ ﺭﺻﻴﺪﻩ ﺍﳌﺪﻳﻦ (‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﻣـﻮﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺠﻞ ﻟﺼﺎﱀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻨﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺼـﺪﻳﺮ ﻭﲣﻔـﻴﺾ‬‫ﺿﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭﺭﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺪﻬﺗﺎ ﺑﲔ ‪ ١٥-٣‬ﺳﻨﺔ‬‫‪ ، ٢‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﻗﺎﺳﻢ ﻧﺎﺟﻲ ﲪﻨﺪﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﻧﻈﺮﻱ ﻭﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ ﰲ ﺃﺳﺲ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ‪،‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﲤﺘﺪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻜﺸﻮﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻑ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺤﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﻊ‪.‬‬‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﻃـﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﰲ ﺭﺃﲰﺎﻟﻪ )ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺳﺎﺑﻖ ( ﻛﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﳍـﻢ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﻮﺍﳍﻢ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺿﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﺤﻖ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻵﺟﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬‫ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺷﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻷﺳﻬﻢ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺪﻳﺪ )ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﻀﺎﺀ (ﺃﻭ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻴﺴﺮﺍ ﻭﻗـﺎﺩﺭﺍ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻹﻳﻔـﺎﺀ‬‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰﺍﻣﺎﺗﻪ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻭﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻜﺸﻮﻑ‪.‬‬‫‪ -‬ﻣﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻟﺴﺪﺍﺩ ﻗﺮﻭﺽ ﻗﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﻭﺍﳌﺒﺎﻟ ﺍﳌﺴﺤﻮﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻜﺸﻮﻑ‪.‬‬

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‫ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍ ﺴﺎﺏ ‪ :‬ﺗﻌﺪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺃﺳﻬﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪،‬ﻭﺗﻌﺮﻑ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺘﺮﺩ ﺍﳌﺒﻠ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‪،1‬ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﲢﻘـﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﲔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻟﻼﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﲔ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﲔ ‪،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻧﺒﻘﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟـﺬﻱ ﺗﻜـﻮﻥ ﻓﺘـﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻗﺼﲑﺓ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻟﻺﻟﻐﺎﺀ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺾ ‪،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻠﻐﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﺎ ﺑﺎﳌﺪﺓ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻣـﻦ ﻗﺒـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ‪.٢‬‬

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‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﺘﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﻗ‬

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‫ﺍﻟ ﻻ ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑ ﺍﻟ ﻣ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻮﺩ(‬

‫ﻭ ﻌ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻮﺩ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺘﻠﺨﺺ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

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‫‪Denis Babisiaux : "décision d'investissement et calcul économique dans l'entreprise " ECONOMICA - édition tech‬‬ ‫‪nip paris , 1992 ,p 110‬‬ ‫‪٢‬‬ ‫‪jacques marcerin , gerard ausset :" investissement et financement " société d'édition et de diffusion pour la‬‬ ‫‪formation paris , p 69‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻭﳝﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﺑﺈﺣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺘﲔ ‪:‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﻭ ‪ :‬ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺃﻭ ﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻷﺧﺮﻯ ‪،‬ﻭﲢﺴﺐ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ = ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ ) ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ( ‪ /‬ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ = ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ‪ +‬ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ = ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ‪ +‬ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ /‬ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫*ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺳـﻨﺔ ﻷﺧـﺮﻯ ‪،‬ﻭﻳـﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﺑﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺣﱴ ﻳﺘﺴﺎﻭﻯ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﻬﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ = ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ ‪ /‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ‬ ‫ ﻣ ﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﻓﺘﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ‪:‬‬‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﳌ ﺍﻳﺎ ‪ :‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﳚﺎﺯﻫﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺟﺎﺫﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺎﱐ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺠـﺰ ﰲ ﺳـﻴﻮﻟﺘﻬﺎ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪،‬ﺇﺫ ﲟﻘﺘﻀﺎﻫﺎ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻟﻠﻮﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﻔﻀﻠﺔ ﺇﻳﺎﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.١‬‬ ‫ ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﻭﺳﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻬﻢ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺮﻏﺐ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺳـﺮﻳﻌﺔ‬‫ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻐﻄﻲ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺘﻪ ﰲ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﺪﺓ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ‪.٢‬‬ ‫ ﲢﻘﻖ ﻗﺪﺭﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﺎﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﳍﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬‫ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻞ‪.٣‬‬ ‫ ﻬﺗﺘﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﺑﺎﳌﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﺳﺮﻋﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻛﺪﻟﻴﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﻭﻗﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺣﺒﺔ ﻟﻪ‬‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻮﺏ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻠﺨﺺ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﲢﺪﺩ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﺮﺟﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﻟ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﺓ ) ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻘﺔ (ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺩﻭﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ‪.‬‬‫ ﺗﺘﺠﺎﻫﻞ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻮﺩ ‪،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﺘﺴﺎﻭﻯ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻭﻟﻜـﻦ ﻳﻜـﻮﻥ‬‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﺍ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﺍ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺗﺘﺤﻴﺰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﰲ ﻏﲑ ﺻﺎﱀ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳚﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺃﺩ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺗﻪ‬‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺗﺘﺠﺎﻫﻞ ﺃﻏﻠﺐ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ ﻭﻋﺐﺀ ﺍﻹﻫﺘﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺏ‬‫‪١‬‬

‫‪Petty j ; scoh.jt.d : and Bird.M : "The capital expenditure decision marketing process of large corporation " the‬‬ ‫‪ingeneering economist . vol 20 spring 1975 ,p 159‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﲨﻴﻞ ﺃﲪﺪ ﺗﻮﻓﻴﻖ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺬﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ، ١ ٥ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢١‬‬ ‫‪ ٣‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ﺇﲰﺎﻋﻴﻞ ﲪﻴﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻀﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ ، ١ ٢ ،‬ﺹ ‪١١٥‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ ﺗﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺗﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﳍﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﳐﺎﻟﻒ ﻟﻠﻮﺍﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺑـﺬﻟﻚ ﻻ‬‫ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎ ﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳ ﻋﻠ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‬

‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍ ﺴﺎﺏ ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:٢‬‬‫ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ= ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ )ﺍﻟـﺮﺑﺢ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ‬

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‫ﻭﻟﻠﺤﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﻼ ﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻣﻨﻪ ﺑﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺤﺔ ﻟﻸﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﺍﺭ ﺧـﺎﺹ‬ ‫ﺑﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﻨﺎ ﺑﺼﺪﺩ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﲔ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﻌـﺪﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺮﺟﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﻣﻊ ﺷﺮﻁ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺃﻱ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺇﺫﺍ ﰎ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﻩ ﻛﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﳌ ﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻴﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﳌ ﺍﻳﺎ‪ :‬ﺗﺘﻠﺨﺺ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻬﻢ ‪.‬‬‫ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﺃﳘﻠﻪ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ‪.‬‬‫ ﻳﻔﻴﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﺣـﺪﺓ ﻣـﻦ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌـﺎﻝ‬‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻭﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﺩﻟﻴﻼ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺒﲎ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬

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‫ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻬﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻮﺩ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻻ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﻫـﻮ‬‫ﻳﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﰲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻭﺇﻥ ﺍﺧﺘﻠﻔﺖ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴـﺚ ﺗﻮﻗﻴـﺖ‬‫ﺣﺪﻭﺛﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻳﺘﺠﺎﻫﻞ ﺍﳌﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻗﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‬‫ﻗﺪ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺳﻨﻮﻱ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻞ‪ ،‬ﻏﲑ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﺗﻴـﺎﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻴﺎ ﳌﺪﺓ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ﺇﲰﺎﻋﻴﻞ ﲪﻴﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١١٥‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﻗ ) ﺍﻟ‬

‫ﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘ ﲑ ﺍﻟ ﻣ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻮﺩ(‬

‫ﻭﻫ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻮﺩ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻭﻫﻲ ﰲ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﻬﺎ ﺗﺴـﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻟﺘﻘﻴـﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒـﺪﺍﺋﻞ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻘﻖ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍ ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

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‫ﺟﺎﺀ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻟﻴﻌﺎﰿ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﲔ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‪،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﲏ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﻜﻞ ‪.١‬ﻭﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻧﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻋﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺑﲔ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﻄﺮﺡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍ ﺴﺎﺏ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ = ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ‪ -‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ‬

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‫ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﺑﻄﺮﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺻـﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘـﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺧﺼﻢ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﺧﺼﻢ ﻣﻌﲔ ﰒ ﻳﻄﺮﺡ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺻﺎﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺹ ﻕ ﺡ < ﺻﻔﺮ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﺡ ﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻋﱪ ﻋﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻄﺮﻭﺣﺎ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ (ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ‪.‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻟﻪ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻻ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺹ ﻕ ﺡ > ﺻﻔﺮ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﺡ ﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻋﱪ ﻋﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻄﺮﻭﺣﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻴﺔ‪،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﺃﻱ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﻟﺐ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻻ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟـﻪ ﺭﲝﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﻪ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻝ ﻭﻣﺮﻓﻮﺽ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺹ ﻕ ﺡ = ﺻﻔﺮ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﺡ ﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻋﱪ ﻋﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻄﺮﻭﺣﺎ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻴﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺎ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺮ ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺘﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻳﺘﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﳛﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳊـﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻜﻔﻲ ﻟﺘﻐﻄﻴﺔ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻻ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﻱ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺇﺿﺎﰲ ﻭﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺭﻓـﺾ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬

‫‪ ، ٢‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢ ١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻟﺐ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺭﻓﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻻ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﲞﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫*ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ‪ :‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺳﺘﺨﺼﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻩ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻭﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺍﳊﺪ ﺍﻷﺩ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﺒﻠﻪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻔﺘـﻮﺡ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻌﱪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳉﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻳﻨﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﳌﺨﺘـﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟـﱵ‬ ‫ﲢﺴﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻳﻨﺎﺭ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﻥ = ‪ +١) ) / ١‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ‬

‫ﻥ‬

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‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫*ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ‪ :‬ﺿﺮﺏ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲨﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻳﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻜـﻞ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺔ‬ ‫*ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻌﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﳉﱪﻱ ﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺿﺮﺏ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳـﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻳﻨﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻋﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺮﺡ ﻳﺴﺠﻞ ﻃﺮﺡ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻋﱪ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻣ ﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍ ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﳌ ﺍﻳﺎ ‪:‬‬

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‫ ﻟﻌﻞ ﺃﻫﻢ ﻣﻴﺰﺓ ﻟﻪ ﺍﻧﻪ ﻳﺮﺍﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻮﺩ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬‫ﺗﻐﻄﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺇﺿﺎﰲ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ‪.‬‬‫ ﻳﻔﻀﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﺗﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ﻭﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻳﻠﺨﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬‫ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ‪.‬‬‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬

‫ ﻻ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﺎ ﺳﻠﻴﻤﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬‫ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻻ ﻳﻔﻴﺪﻧﺎ ﻛﺜﲑﺍ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪،‬ﻭﺇﳕﺎ ﻳﻌﻄﻴﻨـﺎ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﻳﻔﺎﻗﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸـﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺨـﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴـﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪،‬ﻷﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻳﻀﻴﻒ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺍ ﻗﺎﺑﻼ ﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺗﻐﲑ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻳﺘﺠﺎﻫﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻣﻦ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﳍﺎ ﺃﺛﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪:‬ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﻳﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﻗﺴﻤﺔ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺔ ﺑـﲔ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﳐﺮﺟﺎﺗﻪ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﰲ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪.١‬‬ ‫‪-‬ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍ ﺴﺎﺏ‪ :‬ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:٢‬‬

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‫ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ = ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ‬

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‫ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺗﺴﻔﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ ﻡ ﺭ < ‪، ١‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺫﻭ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻟﻪ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ ﻡ ﺭ = ‪ ، ١‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺮﺑﺢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ ﻭ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﻪ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﺃﻱ ﻡ ﺭ > ‪ ، ١‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﻪ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻟﻪ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧـﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻡ ﺭ‪،‬ﺑﺸﺮﻁ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳉﻤﻴﻊ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻣ ﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﻳﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﻟﻠﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌـﺎﻝ‬‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ‪،‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍ ﺟﻴﺪﺍ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻛﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺮﺟﺢ ﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ‬‫ﲢﻘﻖ ﺻﺎﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ )ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ (‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻞ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﻬﻮ ﻳﺮﺍﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻮﺩ‪.‬‬‫ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳍﺎ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬

‫ ﻻ ﻳﻌﺎﰿ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﳋﻄﺮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺼﺎﺣﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳋﻄﺄ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺃﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺎﻟﺜﺎ ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎ ﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠ‬ ‫‪ ، ٢‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٣‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﳑﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ = ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﺋﺪ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎ ﺪ ﺍﻟ ﺪﺍﺧﻠ ‪ :‬ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ )ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﰲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ( ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﳝﺜﻞ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻃﻴﻠﺔ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﻭﲟﻌﲎ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻳﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﺘﺴﺎﻭﻯ ﻋﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻣـﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻡ ﻉ ﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:٢‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪-I0 + ∑ Fn / ( 1+ r )n = 0‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ : I0‬ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪ : Fn‬ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﰲ ﻬﻧﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪. n‬‬ ‫‪ : r‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻭﺭﻏﻢ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻻ ﻳﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ‪،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﻫﺬﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻟﲔ‬ ‫ﺑﺒﻌﻀﻬﻤﺎ‪.‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺮﺑﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻳﻔﻀﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟـﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺍﻷﻛـﱪ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜـﻦ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﻄﺄ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﳛﺪﺩ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﻭﳓﺴﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﰒ ﻧﻘﺎﺭﻥ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺘﲔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺧﺼﻢ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ‬‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﺿـﺌﻴﻞ‬‫ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﻮ ﻧﻔﺴﻪ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳚﻌﻞ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺃﺻﻐﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳚﻌﻞ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺃﺻﻐﺮ ﻗﻴﻤـﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻣ ﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎ ﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﳌ ﺍﻳﺎ ‪ :‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﳚﺎﺯﻫﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﻬﻞ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣـﺎ ﰎ‬‫ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﻬﺎ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺑﺎ ﺷﺎﺋﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.١‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﺳﻌﺪ ﺯﻛﻲ ﻧﺼﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﺔ ‪ ، ١ ٥ ،‬ﺹ ‪٤٣‬‬ ‫‪Kamel Hamdi, Analyse des projets et leur financement , imp es-salem, 2000, p123‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ ﻳﻮﻓﺮ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﺸﻘﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ‬‫ﺏ‪-‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻮﺏ ‪ :‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺼﺮﻫﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪. . .‬‬

‫ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﳎﻬﻮﺩﺍﺕ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﻜﺜﺮﺓ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﻬﺗﺎ‪.‬‬‫ ﻳﻐﻔﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬‫ ﻳﻔﺘﻘﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﶈﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺄﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻭﺍﺿﺢ‪.‬‬‫‪ -‬ﻳﻐﻔﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

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‫‪Document‬‬ ‫‪jacque Margerin ,and Gerrard Ausset - op Cit - p 78‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﰲ ﻞ ﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﺒ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﲣﻀﻊ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﻴﲑ ﰲ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺸﻮﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻟﺸـﻚ ﻭﻋـﺪﻡ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻴﻘﲔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﳚﻌﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﻲ ﻭﻏـﲑ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﲏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﻲ ﻓﻴﻌﻄﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻏﲑ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺐ ﻧﺘﺠﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﳌﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬ ‫ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪ -‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﺎﻛﻤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪. ١‬‬‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻧﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﳌﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺣﻪ ﳌﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺪ ﻭﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻬﺎ‬

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‫ﺃﻭﻻ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺪ‬

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‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻫﻲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﳌﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺃﻥ ﳛﺪﺩ ﻭﻳﻀﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍـﺎ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌـﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺪﺙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻔﻬﺎ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ‪ ":‬ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻭﺗﺰﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺐ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ " ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ ‪.٢‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﻛﺘﻮﺭ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ﺇﲰﺎﻋﻴﻞ ﲪﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻌﺮﻑ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ‪" :‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻌﺖ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ" ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺪ ‪ :‬ﺗﻌﺮﻑ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ‪" :‬ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬‫ﻏﲑ ﻣﻌﺮﻭﻓﺔ"‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺷﺮﻁ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﻧﻔﺲ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﺣﱴ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺃﻣﺮﺍ ﺻﻌﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻷﻧﻪ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺩﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻜـﺮﺭ‬ ‫ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺃ ﺮﻩ ﻋﻠ‬

‫ﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬

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‫ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺪ ‪ :‬ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺆﺛﺮﺓ ﰲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻗﺒـﻮﻝ ﺃﻭ‬‫ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺭﻓﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺮﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺳﺮﻳﻌﺔ ﻭﻣﺆﻛﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛـﺪ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻖ ﻋﺎﺋﺪﺍ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻼ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨـﺎﻃﺮﺓ‬‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺣﺒﺔ ﳍﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺗﻮﺻﻒ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺁﻣﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﰲ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻋﺎﺋﺪﺍ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎ‪.‬‬‫‪ ١‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪،‬ﺹ ‪٢ ٢‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٣ ٣‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺣﺒﺔ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻱ‬‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﻵ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻘﻖ ﻋﺎﺋﺪﺍ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ ﻳﺘﻼﺀﻡ ﻣﻊ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻭﺭﻏﺒﺘﻪ ﰲ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺃﻭ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪-‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺼﺎﺣﺒﻬﺎ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺇﺫ ﳚﺐ ﲡﻨﺒﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ ‪-‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺴﻖ ﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﺸﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺣﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬

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‫‪ -‬ﺃ ﺮ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺪ ﻋﻠ‬

‫ﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣـﺎ‬

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‫ﻳﻔﻀﻲ ﺇﱃ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻏﲑ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﲨﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺗﻌﺎﰿ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻛﻤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗـﺮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪،‬ﻭﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻣﺒﻴﻨﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺆﻛﺪﺓ ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺙ‪،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﱪ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﳍﺎ ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺑﺎﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﻭﻛﻠﻤـﺎ ﻛﺎﻧـﺖ ﺍﳌﺨـﺎﻃﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﻛﺒﲑﺓ‪،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﲢﺪﺩ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻴﻂ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺑـﺎﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻣﺪ ﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺗﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳊﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺳﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﻻ ﺗﺘﻐﲑ ﻭﻻ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻏﲑ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﻩ ﺑﺎﺟﺘﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺷﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻴﺰ‪،‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻏﲑ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻭﺟﺐ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩ ﺇﱃ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ )ﺍﳌﺒﺪ ( ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺒﻠ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻳﻈـﻞ ﺩﻭﻥ‬‫ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻳﻘﻴﻨﻴﺎ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻄﺮﺃ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪،‬ﻛﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺒﻠ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻏﲑ ﺩﻗﻴﻖ ﻭﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺟﺪﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﳝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﻫـﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺟﺪﻭﺍﻫﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺪ‬

‫ﻋﺎﺩ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﱴ ﻳﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻻﺑﺪ ﻟﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩ ﺇﱃ ﲨﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻫﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﻣﻜﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﺑﻴﺎﻬﻧﺎ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻧﻨﺎ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﻬﺎ ﺿﻤﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺿﻤﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﲝﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠـﻲ ﻋـﺮﺽ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻢ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﻹ ﺼﺎ ﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍ ﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺗﻌﲏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﳊﺪﺙ ﻣﻌﲔ "ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ‬‫ﺍﳊﺪﺙ ﻣﻀﺮﻭﺑﺎ ﰲ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎﳊﺪﺙ "‪ ١‬ﺃﻭ ﻫﻲ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺢ ﺑﺎﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳـﺔ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺙ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:٢‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ =‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﺅﱄ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ‪ x‬ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎﳊﺪﺙ (‪) +‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﺪﻱ ﺍﻟـﺪﺍﺧﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎﳊﺪﺙ ( ‪) +‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﺅﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻞ ‪ x‬ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎﳊﺪﺙ (‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻣ ﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬

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‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﳌ ﺍﻳﺎ‪ :‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻠﺨﻴﺼﻬﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺳﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﺣﺴﺎﻬﺑﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬‫ ﺗﺸﲑ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﰎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤـﺎﻻﺕ‬‫ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﺑﺪﻗﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﺮﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺣﺪﻭﺛﺎ‬‫ﻛﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪-‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻮﺏ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻠﺨﺺ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻬﻤﻞ ﲤﺎﻣﺎ ﻋﻨﺼﺮ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻔـﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣـﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﻮﺍﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌـﺎﺩﻝ ﻗﻴﻤﺘـﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ‪ ٣.‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺘﺪﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﺷﻮﻗﻲ ﺑﺸﺎﺩﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ ، ١ ٥ ،‬ﺹ ‪١ ٤‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ﺇﲰﺎﻋﻴﻞ ﲪﻴﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪ ١‬ﻧﻘﻼ ﻋﻦ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪james C .Van Horne ; op,cit , 274 - 276‬‬ ‫‪ ٣‬ﻋﻮﺽ ﺍ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﻌﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ﺹ ‪٣ ٣ -٣‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﳌ ﺪ‪ :‬ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻳﺘﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬‫ﲟﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﺆﻛﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻀﺮﺏ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪﺓ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪ ﺍﳋـﺎﺹ ﺑﻜـﻞ ﻓﺮﺻـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪ ‪ ١‬ﺑﻘﺴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪ‪،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺘﻮﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﺆﻛﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻭﺧﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺰ ﺑﲔ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻫﻢ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻣﺒﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﳌﺨ ﺎﻃﺮ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻏﲑ‬‫ﻣﺆﻛﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻻ ﻳﺒﺎﱄ ﺑﺎﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺘﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻣﺘ ﻨ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ‪ :‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪ ﰲ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻓـﺈﻥ‬‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪n‬‬ ‫‪) N V PA = a1 CF1 / (1+i ) +a2 CF2 / ( 1+i) + …..+ an CFn (1+i) -I‬ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ(‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪ CFn,…………………CF2, CF1 :‬ﺗﺮﻣﺰ ﺇﱃ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺧـﻼﻝ ﺍﳊﻴـﺎﺓ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴـﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺻـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ‪A‬‬ ‫‪ :i‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﳋﺎﱄ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ‬ ‫‪ :I‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻨﻪ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪A‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻭﻓﻘـﺎ ﻻﺧـﺘﻼﻑ ﺩﺭﺟـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ‪، A‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪ ﻻ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﰲ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼـﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺧﺼﻢ ﺗﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﻻ ﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪ :‬ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ ﺍﳌﻘـﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺘـﺪﻓﻖ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳉﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴـﺎﺭﻱ ﺃﺣـﺪ ﻣﻘـﺎﻳﻴﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺘﺖ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﺇﺫ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺘﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.٢‬‬ ‫ﻭﲡﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻷﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﳐﺎﻃﺮﻩ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌـﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜـﺲ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻜﺲ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻳﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﳌﺆﻛﺪ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﲟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ‪x‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﳝﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺑﲔ ﳘﺎ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ = ﺍﳉﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺇ‪.‬ﻡ = ﺍﳉﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ‬ ‫)ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻞ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ( ‪) x‬ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮ (‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ‬ ‫ ‪ -‬ﻣ ﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻻ ﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬‫‪ - -‬ﺍﳌ ﺍﻳﺎ‪:‬‬

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‫ ﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺴﻬﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﰲ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ‬‫ﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳓﺮﺍﻓﻬﺎ ﻭﺗﺸﺘﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﲢﺖ ﻣﻨﺤﲎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧـﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ‬‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻪ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻮﺏ ‪:‬‬‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻻ ﻳﻘﻴﺲ ﺑﺪﻗﺔ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻛﺎﻵ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﳛﺪﺩ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺗﺸﺘﺖ ﻭﺍﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﳍﺎ‪.‬‬‫ ﻳﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﲤﺎﺛﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴـﺎﺭﻱ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﺮ‬‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺗﻘﻞ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳊﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻵﺗﻴﺔ‪:‬‬‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪-‬ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻵﺧﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﲤﺎﺛﻞ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠـﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟـﺔ ﻟﻜـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺎﻧﻴﺎ‪:‬ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴ ﻮ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺑﻴﺎﻬﻧﺎ ﻛﺎﻵ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﻠﻴﻞ ﺍ ﺴﺎﺳ ﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻧﻘﺼﺪ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﲢﺪﺙ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻢ ﳏﺪﺩﺍﺗﻪ )ﺃﻱ ﺭﻗﻢ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟـﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﻣﺴـﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ …ﺍ (ﺇﺫﻥ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺗﻘﻴﺲ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑ ﰲ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻭﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗـﻊ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫‪١‬‬ ‫ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪ ،‬ﻳﻮﺟﺐ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔـﺔ ﻟﻨﺘـﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫‪٢‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺘﺒﺎﻳﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺮﺟﻊ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲣﻀﻊ ﻻ ﳏﺎﻟﺔ ﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻼﻳﻘﲔ ﺣﻮﻝ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫‪١‬‬ ‫ﳛﺪﺙ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪ ،‬ﺫﻟﻚ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻨﺔ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٣٢٥‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﺃﻱ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺗﻔﺎﺅﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺗﺸﺎﺅﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺣﺪﻭﺛﺎ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻣ ﺍﻳﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻮﺏ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻠﻴﻞ ﺍ ﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬

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‫ ﺍﳌ ﺍﻳﺎ ‪:‬‬‫ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺑﺘﻮﻓﲑ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻔﻴﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺗﺮﺷﻴﺪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺗـﻪ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻳﻌﺪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻴﺲ‬‫ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺑﺎ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪،‬ﻓﻬﻮ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﺇﺫﻥ ﺑﺘﻮﻓﲑ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴـﻴﺔ ﻭﻣـﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻳﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﳍﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺇﳚﺎ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻭﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﳍﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺳﻠﱯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘـﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻮﺏ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻠﺨﺺ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬‫ ﻻ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬‫ﳏﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ‪،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﻃﺌﺔ‪.٢‬‬ ‫ ﻳﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺧﻄﺄ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺇﺣﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺣـﺪﻭﺛﺎ‪،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺑـﺬﻟﻚ‬‫ﻳﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻗﺾ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻘﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻻ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻳﺔ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ‪ -.‬ﻳﺼـﻌﺐ‬‫ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﰎ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﻟـﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻛﻞ ﺳﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪،‬ﻷﻧﻪ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﻔﻀﻞ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺮ ﺍﻻ ﺘﻤ ﺎﻻﺕ ‪ :‬ﺗﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﺣـﺪ‬‫ﻳﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﰲ ﺑﻌـﺾ ﺍﳊـﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﺮﻋﻲ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.٣‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳚﺐ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﲤﺜﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺷﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﻬﺎ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﺍﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﳌﺸـﻜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺻـﻮﺭﺓ ﺷـﺠﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻲ ﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﰲ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‪.٤‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﻫﻨﺎﺀ ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻕ ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﲑ ‪،‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ‪،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١٣‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻞ ﺃﻧﻈﺮ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﺑﺘﺴﺎﻡ ﺣﺴﲔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﶈﺎﻛﺎﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﲑ ‪،‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ‪،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻃﻨﻄﺎ‪١ ٥ ،‬‬ ‫‪ ٣‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ﺇﲰﺎﻋﻴﻞ ﲪﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪ ، ٢٥٥‬ﻧﻘﻼ ﻋﻦ ‪james ,C,vane hotne,op,cit,pp 284-288 :‬‬ ‫‪ ٤‬ﺩﻻﻝ ﺻﺎﺩﻕ ﺑﻄﺮﺱ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﲢﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪١ ٤‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﻭﺣﱴ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺷﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﲔ ﺍﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪: ١‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺀ ﺃﻭ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﳝﺜﻞ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻓﺮﻋﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﺸﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻓﺮﻉ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺳﺒﻖ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻩ ﰲ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﻭﻳﻔﺎﺿﻞ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺍﻷﺩ ‪ :‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻘﻖ ﺃﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻗﻞ ﺻﺎﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﰒ ﻳﻔﺎﺿﻞ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻭﳜﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻛﱪ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﺩ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ ‪ :‬ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﰒ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳊﺪﺛﲔ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﲔ ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﺩﻧﺎﳘﺎ ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﺩ ﺍﻷﺩ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﺅﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﻪ ﳛﺪﺩ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﳊﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺃﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﰒ ﻳﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺫﻭ ﺍﳊﺪﺙ ﺍﻷﺩ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳛﻘﻖ ﺃﺩ ﺻﺎﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪.‬‬

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‫‪Document‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٣١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﻼﺻﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﻨﺎ ﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﳚﺎﺯﻩ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﲟﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﺃﺭﺿﻴﺔ ﺻﻠﺒﺔ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﺍﻧﻄﻼﻗﺘﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻬﻧـﺎ‬‫ﺩﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻪ ﰲ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻷﺧﻄﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﲤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﳊﺠـﻢ ﺍﻷﻣـﻮﺍﻝ‬‫ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻭ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬‫ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻟﻪ ﺍﳋﺎﺻـﺔ ‪.‬‬‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻄﻴﻪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺁﻓﺎﻗﺎ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺑﺎﻧﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﶈﻠﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺘﻮﰲ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﻬﻞ ﻟﻪ ﺍﳊﻜـﻢ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻖ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟـﱵ‬‫ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻬﺗﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻭﻣﻦ ﲨﻠﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺇﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺧـﺮﻯ ﺗﺘﻌﻠـﻖ‬‫ﺑﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ‪،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺻﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ‪،‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﰲ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻳﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻏﲑ ﳑﻜﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﻪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻳﺸﻌﺮ ﺃﻧﻪ ﳏﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻄﺔ ) ﺍﻟﺴﺎﻛﻨﺔ ( ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ‬

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‫ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺜﺔ ) ﻃﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ( ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺖ‪ ،‬ﻧﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﺪ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﻴﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﻧﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻭ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻮﺀ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻬﻧـﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ) ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ( ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺭﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺼـﻼﺣﻴﺔ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻛﻜﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻬﺗﺘﻢ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﲟﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ) ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﺤﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ( ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪﻩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ) ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺗﻌﻮﺩ ﻋﻞ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ( ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺍﳊﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻓﺴﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﰲ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﺒﺎ ﺚ ﻫ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﺎ ﻳﻠ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻣ ﺮﺍﺕ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧ ﺮ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳌﺮ ﺒﺔ ﰲ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ) ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ (‬ ‫ﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣـﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ‬

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‫ﺗﻄﺮﻗﻨﺎ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺃﻫﻢ ﳎﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﻭ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺃﻭﺟﻪ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺑﲔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ‪:‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺗﻌﲏ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺘﻪ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﰲ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺮ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ = ] ﺇ ﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍ ﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎ ﺮ ﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎ ﺮ ‪ -‬ﺇ ﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴ ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺎ ﺮ ﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎ ﺮ‬

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‫ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻴﺲ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻔـﺮﺩ‪،‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻟﻪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺃﻧﻔﻘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﳍـﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺍﻷﻫﻢ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺗﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫـﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻬﺗﺘﻢ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﺑﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﶈﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ ﻭ ﻧﺼـﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻣﺪﻯ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺘﻪ ﻭﻃﻨﻴﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪:‬‬‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺒﺬ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١-٢‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻮﻛﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻛﻠﻴﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﳉﺪﻳـﺪﺓ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢-٢‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﱪﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻤﻮﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻹﺳﻜﺎﻥ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺔ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣-٢‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺧﻴﺺ ﳌﺰﺍﻭﻟﺔ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺗﺮﻏﺐ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻞ‬ ‫ﻗﺮﻭﺽ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻋﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺩﻋﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺇﻋﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﲨﺮﻛﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ -٤-٢‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳉﺰﺋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﻏﺐ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳉﻤﺮﻛﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٥-٢‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﱪﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﻤﻮﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺝ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻌﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ - -٢‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻌﻮﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﻭ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍ ﺿﻨﺎ ﻷﻫﻢ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻓﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﳚﺎﺯﻫﺎ‬

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‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﲣﺼﻴﺺ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﺮﺷﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺍﻟـﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ) ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪ /‬ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴـﺔ ( ‪ .‬ﻋﻨـﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻭ ﺍﻷﻗﺎﻟﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺭﺽ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻭ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ) ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ( ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻴﺲ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻈﻢ ﺭﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺗﺼـﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﲡﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺟﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍ ﺟﻴﺪﺍ ﻭ ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺎ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻧﺸﺄﺕ ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﺷﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﺪﻯ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﳍـﺪﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜـﺮ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺎ ﳛﻘﻘﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﲨﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻣﻲ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٣‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﺗﻮﺍﺯﻥ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﳊﻔﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٥‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺴـﺎﳘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺃﻭﺟﻪ ﺍﻻﺧﺘ ﻑ ﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳋﺎ ﺔ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺘﺮ‬

‫ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﺑﲔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﻳﻬﺪﻑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺇﱃ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣـﺪﻯ ﻣﺴـﺎﳘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﲢﺪﺩ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﺮﻛـﺰ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻠﺬﺍﻥ ﻳﻌﻈﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﰒ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻠﻤﻮﺳﺔ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ .‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣـﺎ ﻳﻌـﺮﻑ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﺑﻚ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻏﲑ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﳒﺪﻩ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ) ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ (‪ ،‬ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺑﺘﺨﺼﻴﺼﻪ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﳌﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺳـﻌﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺢ ﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻛﺄﺳﺎﺱ ﻟﻠﺨﺼﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﳌﻌـﱪ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٥‬ﻳﺒﻘﻰ ﺃﺧﲑﺍ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﺑﻨﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻭ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺇﻋﺎﻧـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺪﻋﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻲ ﺇﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍ ﺃﻱ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺎ ﺩﺍﺧﻼ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﻌﺪ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤـﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻛﻮﻬﻧﺎ ﺇﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻣ ﺮﺍﺕ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧ ﺮ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻧﻴﺪﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟـﺪﻭﻝ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻻ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺒﻂ ﺍﻟﻨﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻸﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺡ ﺍﻟـﺪﻟﻴﻞ ﲨﻠـﺔ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻤﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺮﻕ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻣﺎﻧﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ ﳜﺺ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ‬ ‫ﻳﻔﻴﺪ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻭﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠـﻲ ﺍﺳـﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ‬ ‫ﻷﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻠﻴﻞ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟ ﻞ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﻋﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻗﺪ ﳚﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺃﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻔـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﳜﻠﻖ ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﻋﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺣﺴﺎﻬﺑﺎ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴـﺚ‬ ‫ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺑﻴﻊ ﺳﻠﻊ ﻭﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﻓﻌﻼ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﻳـﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﻠﺠـﻮﺀ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻈﻠﻴﺔ ) ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ( ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﱪ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻷﺳـﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻈﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩﻳﺔ )ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﻭﺍﻹﻋﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ (‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ﻫﻮ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺟﺮ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ )ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ (ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﺗﻌﻜـﺲ ﺑﺪﻗـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺃﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﻘﺘﻀﻲ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﻘﻴـﻴﻢ ﻣـﺪﺧﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩﻳﺔ )ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺗﺄﺛﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﻭﺍﻹﻋﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ (‪ .‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻫﻨﺎ ﲟﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻈﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﳝﺜﻞ ﻛﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﻮﻟـﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ )ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻈﻠﻲ (‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻲ ﰒ ﺗﻀﺎﻑ ﻛﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﻤﺮﻙ ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ )ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ (ﻭﺑﻨﻔﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻌﻮﺿﺔ ﻋـﻦ‬ ‫‪١‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩ ‪ ،‬ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻭﻓﻖ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺳﻴﻒ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﺴﻌﲑ ﺳﻠﻊ ﻭﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻊ ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ﻭﻓﻖ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺳﻴﻒ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻗﺎﺳﻢ ﻧﺎﺟﻲ ﲪﻨﺪﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٥‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺱ‬

‫= ﺱ ﻑ ‪) -‬ﺽ‪+‬ﺭ‪+‬ﻉ ( ﺱ ﻕ ‪ /‬ﺱ ﻡ‬

‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺱ ‪ :‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺱ ﻑ ‪ :‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺳﻴﻒ ‪ ،‬ﺽ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ‪ ،‬ﺭ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ‪ ،‬ﻉ ‪ :‬ﺇﻋﺎﻧـﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺱ ﻕ ‪ :‬ﺳـﻌﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﻃﻊ ‪ ،‬ﺱ ﻡ ‪ :‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻻﺣﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻖ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ‪ FOB‬ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ )ﺳﻠﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ( ﺍﳌﻌﻮﺿﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﻓﻖ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺳﻴﻒ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻀﺎﻑ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ) ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﻞ ﻣـﻦ ﻣﻮﻗـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻴﻨﺎﺀ ﻭﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻳ ﻭﺭﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﻴﻨﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻤﻴﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻇﻬﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﻴﻨﺔ (‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻷﻳﺔ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﻧﺎﻗﺼﺎ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﺍﺓ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ‬

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‫ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻷﻱ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻀﻴﻔﻪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﻗﻴﻤـﺔ ﻣﺴـﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ ﺳـﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺯﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳛﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﺎﺕ ﻭ ﳛﺼﻞ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ‬ ‫ﻭ ﲢﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﻳﻊ ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﻣﻼﻙ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻢ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﲨﻴـﻊ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻮﻑ ﺗﺸﺎﺭﻙ ﰲ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻫﻲ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﲤﺎﻣﺎ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﻮﻑ ﳝﺜﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺻـﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﺎ ﻟﻠﺮﺧﺎﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﳛﻮﻝ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀـﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺝ ﰲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭ ﻓﻮﺍﺋﺪ … ﺇ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﲟﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﰎ ﲢﻮﻳﻠﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﻮﻳﻠﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺍ ﻔﻀﺖ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺍ ﻔﻀﺖ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺘﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻴﲔ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﲔ‪ ،‬ﳘﺎ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﺎﺕ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻭﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺟﺰﺀﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪،‬ﻷﻬﻧـﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﲏ ﺍﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻭ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﻣﺰﻳﺪﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻓﻬﻮ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻮﺟﻪ ﻟﻘﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺤﻘﺔ ﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻧﺼﻴﺐ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﺍﳌﻮﺯﻉ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺤﻘﺔ ﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﳜﺼﺺ ﺇﻧﻔﺎﻗﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻠﺺ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫* ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ) ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ( = ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ‪ -‬ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ = ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ) ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ (‪ -‬ﻣﺴـﺘﻠﺰﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ = ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﻟﻴﺔ = ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻮﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺨﺎﺭﺝ ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ = ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﻟﻴﺔ – ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻼﻛﺎﺕ ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ = ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ‪ -‬ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪VAB = PBB - OI‬‬

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‫‪ : VAB‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : PBB‬ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : OI‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻄﺔ ‪.‬‬

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‫‪ :‬ﺪﻓ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧ ﺮ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻜﻞ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ ‪ :‬ﺳﻴﺪ ﺍﳍﻮﺍﺭﻱ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒ ﺫ ﺮﻩ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬

‫‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻼ ﻋﻦ ‪:‬‬

‫‪-J,Price gittinder, Economic Analysis of Agricultural Projects, A.Word Bank Publication‬‬ ‫‪(Baltinore : The Jahn's Hopkings University Paris ; 1972 ) P, 95 .‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻛﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻪ ﲨﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻧﻮﺟﺰﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤـﻮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ )‪: (١‬‬ ‫ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻔﻴﺪ ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻳﺸـﲑ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻـﺮ‬‫ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ) ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﺃﻭ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻓﺎﺋﺾ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ (‪.‬‬

‫)‪ (١‬ﺳﻴﺪ ﺍﳍﻮﺍﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ﺹ‬

‫‪١ -‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﲢﺘﻮﻱ ﺇﺟﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﺳـﺘﻔﺎﺩﺕ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬‫) ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﲔ ( ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﳏﺘﺠﺰﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺿﺮﺍﺋﺐ ‪ ،‬ﲨﺎﺭﻙ … (‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲡﺰﺋﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‬ ‫ﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﳛﻮﻝ ﻟﻠﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺎﻓﺔ ﻭ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﲟﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺭﻓﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ‪.‬‬‫‪ -‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ) ﺃﻱ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ (‪.‬‬

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‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻘﺔ‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﻣﺒﺪﺋﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﻘﻘﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﻌﺪ ﻋﻼﻣﺔ ﻃﻴﺒﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜـﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻬـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﺴﺘﺪﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺳـﺎ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﺃﻧﺸـﺊ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺇﻃﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﻭ ﻧﻌﲏ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺳـﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻖ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻟﺪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻧﺪﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻳﺘﻌﲔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺇﻏﻔﺎﻝ ﺁﺛﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫)‪(١‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺷﺮﺡ ﻣﻮﺟﺰ ﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺪﺭﺓ‬ ‫*ﺍ ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭ ‪ :‬ﻧﺪﺭ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻌﺖ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍ ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻧﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤ ﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻣـﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻻ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻭﻓﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻛﻠﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻌﺖ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫)‪ (١‬ﲰﲑ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٢٣٤‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺍ ﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ‪ :‬ﻧﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻫﺮ ‪ :‬ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﻧﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻭﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻫﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﺟﻮﺭ ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻬﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻌﺖ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻧﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻫﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺘـﺎﱄ ﻣـﺎ ﺗﻀـﻴﻔﻪ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻔﻀﻼ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻔﻀﻲ ﺇﱃ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌ ﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺮ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻧ ﺮﺍ ﻟﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﳛﻘﻘﻬﺎ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪ /‬ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﻻ ﻳﻮﺿﺤﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ) ﺃﻱ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﻮﺟﺰ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻤﻴﻠﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺃ ﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠ ﻓﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ) ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻴ (‬

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‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻭﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳚﺐ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺘﻬﺎ ) ﺃﻱ ﻋﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﻭ ﻋﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺎﻫﺮﺓ ( ﻭ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻏـﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷـﺮﺓ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺗﻨﺸـﺄ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ) ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺧﻠﻔﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺃﻣﺎﻣﻴﺔ (‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺼﺮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﻫﺎ ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻵ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﰲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟـﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳـﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺳﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﻋﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﻓﻨﻴﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ﻭ ﻃﺮﺣﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻹﳚﺎﺩ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ ﻟﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻭﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ = ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ‪ /‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫) ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ (‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺸﲑ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﺒﻠ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺹ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﺳـﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻧـﺖ ﻋﻤﺎﻟـﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﺍﻷ ﺮ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻳﻊ‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺑﻄـﺮﻳﻘﺘﲔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴـﺚ ﻳـﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ) ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ( ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﻮﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﻨﺴﺐ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺗﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﱪ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ /‬ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃ ) ﺍﻷﻗﺎﻟﻴﻢ ( ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﺪﻓﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﻮ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻗﺪﺭ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳝﻜـﻦ‬ ‫ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻭ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻊ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﻴـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴـﻴﻢ ﻣـﺜﻼ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺩﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺁﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻮﺟﺐ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺭﺃﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻳﺮﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻷﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻱ ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻣﺘﺨﻠﻔﺔ ﺑﻐﺾ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ /‬ﺪﻳﺪ ﺎﰲ ﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻗﺎﻟﻴﻢ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺻﺎﰲ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻣﻌﲔ ﺃﻭ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺑﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﳐﺼﻮﻣﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﺪﻣﻬﺎ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻗﺎﻟﻴﻢ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻗـﺎﻟﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺧـﺮﻯ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣـﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻘﺼﺪ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺪﺛﻬﺎ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻣﻄﺮﻭﺣﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﻀﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻠﻘﺎﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺁﺧﺮ )‪.(١‬‬ ‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺳﺐ ) ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ( ﻭ ﺍﳋﺴﺎﺋﺮ ) ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ( ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫ﳌﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻗﺎﻟﻴﻢ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ )*( ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﲡﺪﺭ ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻭ ﺟﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺳﻨﺔ ﻋﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳚﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴـﺰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ) ﺃﻱ ﳚﺐ ﻃﺮﺡ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻮﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨـﺎﱄ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ (‪.‬‬ ‫‪ /‬ﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻳﻊ ‪:‬‬

‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﻗﺎﻟﻴﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬

‫)‪ (١‬ﻣﺘﻮﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﱄ ‪ ،‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﻌﻢ ﺃﲪﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺎﻣﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٥‬‬ ‫)*( ﻣﺜﻼ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳚﺐ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺧﻔﺾ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺟﺰﺀ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﱂ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﰲ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺻﺎﰲ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺇﻧﺸـﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳚﺐ ﺃﺧﺬﻩ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃ – ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻳﻊ ﻷ ﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻳﺸﲑ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻧﻪ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻟﺪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﻭ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻭ ﳛﺴﺐ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪DBW = VAW / VA‬‬

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‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻧﻪ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ : DBW‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻷﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : VAW‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﲰﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻸﺟﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﺪﻣﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺳﻨﺔ ﻋﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : VA‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﲰﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻟﺪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻳﻊ ﻷ ﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎ ‪:‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻭ ﻳﺸﲑ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻣﻦ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻟﺪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺡ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ‪ ،‬ﺇﳚﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﻋﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﳛﺴﺐ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪DBC = VAC / VA‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ : DBC‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻷﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : VAC‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﲰﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻸﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻷﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﲔ ) ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ( ﺧـﻼﻝ ﺳـﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫‪ -‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻳﻊ ﺍﳋﺎ‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﻜﻮﻣﺔ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻭ ﻳﺸﲑ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﲢﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻟﺪﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷـﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﺿﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺃﺳﻬﻢ ﳑﻠﻮﻛﺔ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺇﳚﺎﺭﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﳛﺴﺐ ﻭﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪DBG = VAG / VA‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ : DBG‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : VAG‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﲰﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﲢﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻟﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻳﻊ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻳﺸﲑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻛﺄﺟﻮﺭ ﻟﻠﻌـﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺍﶈﻠـﻴﲔ ﻭ ﺿـﺮﺍﺋﺐ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﺪﻣﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﳛﺴﺐ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪DBR = VAR / VA‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ : DBR‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : VAR‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﲰﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺃﻱ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻴﺤﺒﺬ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﻋﻜﺲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳚﺐ‬ ‫)‪(١‬‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺪﻳﻼﺕ ﺣﱴ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲟﺎ ﻳﺘﻤﺎﺷﻰ ﻣﻊ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺎﻟﺜﺎ ‪ :‬ﺃ ﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠ ﻣﻴ ﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ‬

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‫ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻭﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﻋﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻣﻦ ﻭ ﺇﱃ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﻬﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﰲ ﺟﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺃﺛﺮ ﲢﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻭ ﺍﲡﺎﻩ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻭ ﻧﻘﺼﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ ﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻵ ‪:‬‬ ‫*ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ‪ :‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻـﺮ ﺍﻟﺘـﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫)*(‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻛﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻹﺣﻼﻝ ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﳏﻞ ﻭ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺰ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﺽ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻟﻠﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﲟﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ‪ :‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﺬﺍ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺑﻌﺎ ‪ :‬ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺴ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﻭ ﻟﻠﺤﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﺩﻋﻢ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻻﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﲏ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺘﻪ ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﺗﺒﲔ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﲏ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺳـﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼـﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻠـﻦ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﻜـﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﶈﻠـﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍ ﻔﺎﺽ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﲏ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻟﻠﺼﺮﻑ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ‬

‫)‪ (١‬ﻣﺘﻮﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﱄ ‪ ،‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﻌﻢ ﺃﲪﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺎﻣﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٥١٣‬‬ ‫)*( ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻭ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ … ﺇ ‪،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻓﺘﺸﻤﻞ ﻧﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺇﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻠﻊ ﺭﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺧﺎﻡ ﺃﻭ ﻧﺼﻒ ﻣﺼﻨﻌﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺟﻮﺭ ﻣﺪﻓﻮﻋﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺒﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺗﺎﻭﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻮﺍﺋﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻣﻮﺯﻋﺔ … ﺇ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀﻩ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻋﻢ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪.١‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ ﻣﻊ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﲏ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬـﺔ ﻧﻈـﺮ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤـﻊ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺒﻮﻝ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺾ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﳛﺴﺐ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﲏ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻀﻤﲏ = ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﺎﺕ ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻴﻄﺔ ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻹﺣﻼﻝ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺪﻳﺪ‪.‬‬‫ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﳏﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻧﻔﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‪.‬‬‫ ﻧﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﺟﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻓﻴﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﻬﺑﺎ ﺑﺈﺣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻕ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﻮﻳﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺘـﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻦ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻭ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﳏﻠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻟﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟـﺪﻋﻢ ﺍﳌﻤﻨـﻮﺡ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻣﺴﺎ ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬

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‫ﻳﺄ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﶈﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻫﺪﻑ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﻴﺆﻛﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻬﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﺗﺘﻤﺤﻮﺭ ﺣﻮﻝ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻓﻴﻖ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪.٢‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺣﺼﺮﺍ ﻟ ﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻭ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺃﺿﺮﺍﺭﺍ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﰎ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻻﺑﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺤﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻋﻠﻴـﻪ ﰲ ﺇﻃـﺎﺭ ﺍﲣـﺎﺫ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻔﻞ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﻭ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﳌﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻀﺎﺭﺓ ﻭ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻗـﻞ ﺩﺭﺟـﺔ ﳑﻜﻨـﺔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺘﲔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻻﺑﺪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺧﺬﳘﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲟﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﲪﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺮﺍﻩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﺮﻓﻀﻪ ﺃﻭ ﻧﻘﻠﻪ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻪ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﻭ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻭ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻻﺷﺘﺮﺍﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣـﺔ ﻟـﺘﻼﰲ ﺍﻵﺛـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻀـﺎﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﰲ ﻫـﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟـﺔ ﺗﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﲪﺪﻱ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻈﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﻋﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻐﺪ ﻟﻠﺪﻋﺎﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ ، ٢‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ﺹ ‪٤ - ٤‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬

‫‪ ، ١‬ﺹ ‪٢١٢‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺘﺤﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻛﻠﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺳﺘﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﻘﻮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻭ ﻛـﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﰲ ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺗﺘﺤﻤﻞ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﺆﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻟﻌﻞ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺩﻋﺖ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴـﻤﻰ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﻴـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﻕ ﺡ ﺹ ﺝ = ﻣﺞ‬

‫]‬

‫ﻣﺞ ﻭ ﻉ ﻡ ﻉ ﻥ – ﺕ‬ ‫)‪ + ١‬ﺭ (‬

‫ﻥ‬

‫[‬

‫‪ -‬ﻝ‬

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‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻕ ﺡ ﺹ ﺝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻥ ‪ :‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻉ ‪ :‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻉ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺟﻴﺤﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻔﻌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻡ ﻉ ﻥ ‪ :‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﻉ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺕ ﻥ ‪ :‬ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻝ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭ ‪ :‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻳﺪﺭﺝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻫﺎ ﰲ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﲢﻠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻛﻠـﻬﺎ ﺗـﺪﺭﺝ‬ ‫ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺇﻋﻄﺎﺋﻬﺎ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﺗﺮﺟﻴﺢ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺄﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺃﳘﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﺒﻘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﻃﺮﺡ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﻌـﺪ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻚ ﺧﺼﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺃﺧﲑﺍ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔـﺔ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺩﺳﺎ‪ :‬ﺑﻌ‬

‫ﺍﳌ ﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻤﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻭﻃﻨﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻮﺟﺰ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﻼﻝ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻣﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺇﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺗـﻮﺍﺯﻥ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﻮﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﻠﻮﺙ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺿﺎﺀ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺯﺩﺣﺎﻡ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺮﻭﺭ … ﺇ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺎ ﺍﳌﺘﻄﻮﺭﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

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‫‪ -٤‬ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺘﻪ ﰲ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﶈﻴﻄﺔ ﺑﻪ ﺣﻀﺎﺭﻳﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺎ ﻭ ﺛﻘﺎﻓﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺑﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺼـﺺ ﻭ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﺼﺎﱀ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﻛﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﻗﻴﺎﺳﻪ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ ﻭﺻﻔﻲ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﺩﺭﺍﻛﻪ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺗﻨﺎﻭﻟﻨﺎ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻻ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﻳﺴﺘﻮﺟﺐ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﻛﻠﻬﺎ ﰲ ﻧﻔـﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗـﺖ ﻟﺘﻘﻴـﻴﻢ ﲨﻴـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻷﻣﺮ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳋﱪﺍﺀ ﰲ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﻠﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ‬ ‫ﳚﺮﻱ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﻇﻠﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳌﺮ ﺒﺔ ﰲ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺒﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺍﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﻄـﻮﺍﺕ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫* ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺍﺷﺘﻘﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻫﺪﻑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﱯ ﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻛﻞ ﻫﺪﻑ ﰲ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺷﺘﻘﺎﻕ ﺍﳌﻌﻴـﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻼﺋـﻢ ﻟﺘﻘﻴـﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺍﺷﺘﻘﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺇﺳﺘﺎﻧﻔﻮﺭﺩ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺃﻋﺪﻩ ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺇﺳﺘﺎﻧﻔﻮﺭﺩ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻳﻌﺪ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺑﺎ ﻻﺷﺘﻘﺎﻕ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺮﻛﺐ‬

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‫ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳉﺰﺋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺘﻮﺿﻴﺢ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﻧﻔﺘﺮﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺒﻬﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﰲ ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﻋﺠﺰ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﰲ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ‪.‬‬‫ﻭﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ‪ ١‬ﻳﻌﲏ ﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﻴـﻖ ﺍﳌﻌـﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺳـﻴﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻌﻄﻰ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﰒ ﻳﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﺣﺼﻴﻠﺔ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﻳﻠﻴﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﻋﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺩ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺭﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ‪ :‬ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻠـﱯ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜـﱪﻯ‬‫ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﻃﻠﺐ ﻛﺎﰲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﻡ ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫‪ -‬ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺼﻬﺎ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﺇﱃ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻭﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻪ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

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‫‪ -٢‬ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳉﺰﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱪﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻮﺻﻲ ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺇﺳﺘﺎﻧﻔﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﺧﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻟﻌﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘـﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﲟﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪.‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺑﻨـﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺒﻨﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﻨـﺎﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻗﻴﺔ ﻏﲑ ﻣﻼﺋﻤﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ‪ :‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻭﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮﺍﺑﻂ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﻏـﲑ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﻌﺮﻓـﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﳛﻘﻘﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺋﺪﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻮﺍﺋﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ‪ :‬ﻭﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺬ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﻌﺪ ﺧﻄﻮﺓ ﻫﺎﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﳐﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻌﺪ ﺇﺳﻬﺎﻣﺎ ﻃﻴﺒﺎ ﰲ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺻﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﺍﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺣﺼﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻵﺛﺎﺭ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ‪ :‬ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻭﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﺧﺎﺻـﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﳌﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳـﺪ ﺃﻓﻀـﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻘﺪﻡ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺇﺳﺘﺎﻧﻔﻮﺭﺩ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻨﺘـﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒـﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄﻠ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ‪ :‬ﻮﺫ‬

‫ﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﳌﻨ ﻔﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻘﺪ ﻧﺸﺄ ﻭﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺪﺃ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻲ ﰲ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﻀﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ …ﺍ ﻭﲟﺮﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﺗﺴﻊ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ ﺍﺳـﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻟﻴﺸﻤﻞ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻏﺮﺍﺽ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺼﻤﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﻂ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻭﺑﲔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﲤﻦ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﲟﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻭﺗﻔﻀﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﱪﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻗـﺪﺭ‬ ‫ﳑﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺘﺴﺎﺀﻝ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ؟‬ ‫ﻟﻺﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺅﻝ ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻧﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻌﺮﺍﺽ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺞ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪﺍ ﺳﻨﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﺣﺼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻲ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻛﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﻻ ﺍﳊﺼﺮ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺃﻭ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﳊﺼﻴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‪.‬‬‫ ﺗﺪﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺃﲰﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﰲ ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﲟﺎ‬‫ﳛﻘﻖ ﻋﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺗﻪ ﻟﻠﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺪﻓﲔ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴﲔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻫﺪﻑ ﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺻﺎﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﳊﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻼﻝ ﰲ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺃﻭ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬‫ﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﺼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‬

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‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈـﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﲝﺼﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺑﺪﻳﻞ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﺮ ﺍﻹﻧﺘـﺎﺟﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻥ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺴﻌﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﰲ ﻧﻄﺎﻕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻻﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺑﲔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻜﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻧ ﺮﺍ ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺛﻴﻘﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﻌﻴﺎ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴـﻖ ﺍﻟﻜﻔـﺎﺀﺓ ﰲ‬

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‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻭﺗﺮﺷﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳋﻠﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪ ﰲ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻓـﺮﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻭﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻘﺎ ﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻗﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﻌﻢ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤـﻊ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘـﺪ ﻧـﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﺎ ﻣﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪﺍ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ‪ .١‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﺒﻠﻮﺭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﰲ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻨﻄﻠﻖ ﲨﻴﻌﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜـﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫‪٢‬‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻛﺄﺳﺎﺱ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﳌﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﻪ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣـﻦ ﺣﺴـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻮﺍﻟﺖ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﻴﻐﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﻫﺠﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﻻﺋﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻕ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﺘﻬﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﻛﺘﻮﺭ ﺳﻴﺪ ﺍﳍﻮﺍﺭﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ ﻻ ﻳﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ‪ ١٥‬ﺩﻟﻴﻼ ﻋﺎﳌﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻗﺴﻤﻬﺎ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻹﻃﺎﺭﺍﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺭﺑﻊ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ‪: ٣‬‬ ‫ ﺍ ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻭ ‪ :‬ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻬﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻷﻣـﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺤـﺪﺓ ) ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﻓـﺔ‬‫ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺭﺍ ) ‪(U.N.I.D.O‬‬ ‫ ﺍ ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ ) ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﻓـﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﺼـﺎﺭﺍ‬‫)‪( O.E.C.D.O‬‬

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‫ ﺍ ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ‪ :‬ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺮﻳﻘـﺔ ﻣﻨـﻬﺞ ﻭﻛﺎﻟـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴـﺔ ) ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﻓـﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﺼـﺎﺭﺍ‬‫)‪( U.S.A.I.D‬‬ ‫ ﺍ ﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻌﺔ ‪ :‬ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬‫‪ I.D.C.A.S‬ﻭﺑﲔ ‪U.N.I.D.O‬‬

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‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ :‬ﻣﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻋﻠ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻧﻴﺪﻭ‬

‫ﻭﻫ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺃﻋﺪﻬﺗﺎ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻣﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨـﻬﺠﻴﲔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻭ ﻫـﻮ ﺍﳌﻨـﻬﺞ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻧﺸﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،٤ ١ ٢‬ﻭ ﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳋﻂ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﻱ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺮﻏﻢ ﺻﻌﻮﺑﺘﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻳﻌـﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺟﻌﺎ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻓﻬﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻇﻬـﺮ‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ )‪ ، (U.N.I.D.O‬ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ )‪ ،(E.C.D.O‬ﻭﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ )‪(I.D.C.A.S‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٤ ٥‬‬ ‫‪ ٣‬ﺳﻴﺪ ﺍﳍﻮﺍﺭﻱ ‪ " ،‬ﺍﳌﻮﺳﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ " ) ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ( ‪ ،‬ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪١ ٢ ،‬‬ ‫ﺹ ﺹ ‪٣ - ٣٥٤ ،‬‬ ‫‪٤‬‬ ‫) ‪Unido , guide lines for project evaluation ( new york : united nation , sales n° 72 -11-b-11 , 1972‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ ،١‬ﻭ ﳛﻮﻱ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺣﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ‪ .‬ﻭ ﳌﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﳋﻂ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻞ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻓﺴﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻷ ﻠ ﻟﻠﻴﻮﻧﺪﻭ‪:‬‬

‫‪U.N.I.D.O‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺼﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺑﻮﺻﻔﻪ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﳌﻬﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻌﻴﺸـﺔ ﺃﻓـﺮﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﲟﻘﺘﻀﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ) ﻣﺜﻞ ﺁﺛﺎﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﺪ ﺍﻷﺟـﻨﱯ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺯﻳـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ‪ ...‬ﺇ ( ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ﻟﻜـﻮﻥ‬ ‫‪١‬‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻻ ﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﻗﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﺳﻠﻌﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻴﺔ ﻬﻧﺎﺋﻴﺔ ) ﻭ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺇﺣﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ (‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ " ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻟﻠﺪﻓﻊ " ﻛﺴﻌﺮ ﻇﻞ ﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻟﻠـﺪﻓﻊ ﻟﻠﺴـﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴـﺎﺋﺪ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪: ٢‬‬ ‫ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﻷﻱ ﻣﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻣﺴﺘﻌﺪ ﻟﺪﻓﻊ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪.‬‬‫ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻜﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻜﱪ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟـﺔ ﻋـﺪﻡ ﺗـﻮﺍﻓﺮ‬‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﻷﻣﺮ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﺤﻰ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻓﺎﺋﺾ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻚ ﻬﺑـﺪﻑ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻣﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻀﻤﻦ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﻠﻌﺎ ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺇﺣﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲟـﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻮﻓﺮﻩ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻘﺪ ﺃﺟﻨﱯ ﰲ ﺻﻮﺭﺓ ﻭﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟـﻨﱯ‬ ‫ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭ ﳛﺪﺩ ﲟﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﻟﻠﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ = ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻲ ﻟﻠﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ‪ X‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺟﻴﺢ‬

‫‪ ١‬ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻗﻨﺪﻳﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻃﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﺩﻛﺘﻮﺭﺍﻩ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪١ ٣‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﳌﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻞ ﺃﻧﻈﺮ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪Unido , guidlines for Project Evaluation , op , cit , pp : 40-47‬‬ ‫‪ ، ١‬ﺹ ‪٥٢‬‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺩﻳﺎﺏ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ ) ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻣﻲ ( ﻣﺬﻛﺮﺓ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ ، ١‬ﺟﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ‪،‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺎﻟﺜﺎ ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﺎ ﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺗﻘﻴﻢ ﺑﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻣﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﰎ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺤﻴﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﺍﳌـﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻷﺟﺮ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻓﻬﻮ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠـﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷـﺮﺓ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻫﻲ ﻭﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫)‪WS = D + ( W. MRS ) (IS - 1‬‬

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‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ : WS‬ﺃﺟﺮ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : D‬ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : MRS‬ﺍﳌﻴﻞ ﺍﳊﺪﻱ ﻟﻼﺩﺧﺎﺭ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : IS‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : W‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺗﺄﺛﲑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪﻩ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪IS = ∑ MPi .I / ( 1+ r )n‬‬

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‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ : IS‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : MPi‬ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : I‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫) ‪ : ( 1+r‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﺆﺧﺬ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﻮﻧﻴﺪﻭ ‪ ، UNIDO‬ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﳎﻤﻊ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﳚﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺻﺎﺭﻣﺔ ﻏﲑ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻧﺔ ﻭ ﻣﻌﻘﺪﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺪ ﻣﺎ‪ ،١‬ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺧﱪﺍﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﻳﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﺷﺘﻘﺎﻕ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻗﻨﺪﻳﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٣‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﱐ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻋﻠ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ " ﻣﻨ ﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻭﻳﺴﻤ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﻟﻴﺘﻞ ‪ /‬ﻣﺮﻟﻴﺲ‬

‫‪"O.C.D.E‬‬

‫)‪- Mirless‬‬

‫‪ ( Little‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺆﻟﻔﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺠﻤﻊ ﺑـﲔ‬

‫ﻣﺒﺎﺩ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﻇﻬﺮ ﻣﻨﻬﺞ " ‪ " O.E.C.D‬ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫‪ ، ١ ١‬ﰒ ﺗﻌﺮﺽ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻘﻴﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻣﺆﻟﻔﻴﻪ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ، ٢ ١ ٤‬ﻭﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻋﺮﺽ ﺍﳌﻼﻣﺢ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻬﺞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫـﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻭ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﻘﺘﻀﻲ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﻋﻄﺎﺀ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻖ ﻗﺪﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺩﺧﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻖ ﻗﺪﺭﺍ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﻌﻄﻲ ﻭﺯﻧﺎ ﻛـﺒﲑﺍ ﻟﻠـﺪﺧﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﻂ ﺍﻷﻛﱪ ﻣﻨﻪ ﻳﻮﺟﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﺃﻳﻀـﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﺗﻮﱄ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﻷﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻔﻴﺰﻫﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺩﺧﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ‬ ‫ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻭ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻛﺜﻴﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪.٣‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻨﻬﺞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ‪ :‬ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳـﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ ‪ ، Little - Mirless‬ﻳﻮﺻﻴﺎﻥ ﺑﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻗﺘﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺑﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﲟﻘﺘﻀﻰ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻨﺘﺠﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﺼﻨﻒ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺳﻠﻊ ﻭﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﲡﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺳﻠﻊ ﻭﺧـﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻏـﲑ‬ ‫ﲡﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪: ٤‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺎﺟﺮ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳـﻴﺠﺮﻱ ﺗﺼـﺪﻳﺮﻫﺎ ﺍﻭ‬‫ﺍﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩﻫﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺍﺗﺒﻌﺖ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺇﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﻠﻰ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻌﺮ "‪ "fob‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﻣﻌﱪﺍ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻫﻮ ﺗﺼﺪﻳﺮﻩ ﻟﻠﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻌﺮ " ‪ ، "cif‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳝﺜﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔـﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠـﺔ ﻟﻠﺴـﻠﻌﺔ ‪ -‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣـﺎ ﰎ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﲑﺍﺩﻫﺎ‪ -‬ﻣﻌﱪﺍ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ‪.‬‬

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‫‪organisation for economic cooperation and development manaul of industrial project analysis for developing‬‬ ‫) ‪countries , vol 2 . social cost benefit analysis , by Little and J. mirless , ( Paris 1969‬‬ ‫‪٢‬‬ ‫‪Little and mirless , project appraisal and planing for developing countries , london : Heiman educational‬‬ ‫‪books LTD , 1974‬‬ ‫‪ ٣‬ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻗﻨﺪﻳﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻊ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻼ ﻋﻦ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪Organisation for Economic cooperation and development , op , CIT , pp 39 - 45‬‬ ‫‪ ٤‬ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ) ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ :‬ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ (‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

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‫ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺎﺟﺮ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺭﺽ …‪..‬ﺍ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻋـﻦ‬‫ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ‪ -‬ﺇﱃ ﺳﻠﻊ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺟﺮﺓ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻏﲑ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺎﺟﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﺑﺪﻭﺭﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﳚﺮﻱ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﺴﻠﺴﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﲝﻴﺚ ﺗﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺗﺼﺪﻳﺮﻫﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻞ ﳏﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻳﺘﻮﺻﻞ ﺍﶈﻠﻞ ﺇﱃ ﺳﻠﻊ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺎﺟﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﻤﻞ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺎﻫﺮ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻛﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺎﺟﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺻﻐﲑﺓ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﺮ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ = ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ‪ /‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺿﺮﺏ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﰲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﱯ ﳍﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄ ﻠ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻟﺚ ‪ :‬ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻹﻳﺪ ﺎﺱ‬

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‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪ UNIDO‬ﻭ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ ‪، IDCAS‬‬

‫ﰎ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻲ ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺑﺪﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟـﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴـﺔ ‪ ، ١‬ﻭ ﻳﺘﻤﻴـﺰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺴﺎﻃﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‬

‫ﻳﻬﺘﻢ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﱪﺍ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺼﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺗﻜﻤﻴﻠﻴﺔ)**( ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺎﻧﻴﺎ ‪ :‬ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

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‫ﻳﺮﻓﺾ ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻹﻳﺪﻛﺎﺱ ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ ) ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ ( ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟـﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﺳﺘﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﳌﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ‪ ،٢‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻮ ﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻢ ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺕ ﻭ ﳐﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ "‪ " fob‬ﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺘﺼﺪﺭ ﻟﻠﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ " ‪ " CIF‬ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺑﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﻟﻠﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺪﺧﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﻀﻊ ﻣﻨﺞ ﺇﻳﺪﻛﺎﺱ ﺇﻃﺎﺭﻳﻦ ﳏﺪﺩﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳘﺎ ‪:‬‬

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‫‪ -‬ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻮﺣﺪﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﻭﻓﻖ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻘﺮﺿﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺿﺔ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌـﺎﻝ‬ ‫‪٣‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻘﺮﺿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪TES = I - P‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ) ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪ :‬ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ (‬ ‫)**( ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻤﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﺘﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﳌﻔﺎﺿﻠﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ‪٤١‬‬ ‫‪ ٣‬ﺍﳌﺮﺟﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺫﻛﺮﻩ ‪ ،‬ﺹ ﺹ‪٢ ٤-٢ ٣‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ : TES‬ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : I‬ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ : P‬ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻭﺓ ﺍﳌﻌﻄﺎﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻘﺘﺮﺿﺔ ﻟﺮﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﻳﺼﺒﺢ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪TES > I‬‬

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‫ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﻟﻠﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻷﺟﻨ ‪ :‬ﺭﺳﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺐ ﻭﻳﺮﺗﻜﺰ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺰ ﰲ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺇﱃ‬‫ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺼﻼﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫) ‪TCA = TCO . (1+I-R / R‬‬ ‫‪= TCO . D / R‬‬

‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪ : TCA‬ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﻟﻠﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‪.‬‬

‫‪ : TCO‬ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻲ ﻟﻠﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ‪.‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬

‫‪ :‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺼﻼﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻮﺭﺓ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﻘﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪D‬‬

‫‪ :‬ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻮﺭﺓ ﻣﻘﻮﻣﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﻭﻳﺸﲑ ﻣﺼﻤﻤﻮ ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻹﻳﺪﻛﺎﺱ ﺇﱃ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ ﺍﳌﻀـﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻮﺻﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

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‫ﺔ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ) ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ( ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻛـﺬﺍ‬

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‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ) ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ (‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﲟﺪﻯ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴـﻖ ﺍﻷﻫـﺪﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﲟﻌﲎ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺭﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﳒﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺗﺞ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﺃﺣﺪ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﲔ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ) ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ (‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ) ﻭ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺛـﺮ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎﺕ ( ﺗﻘﻴﺲ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﻻ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﳎﺘﻤﻌﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻷﻣﺮ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻫﻞ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺼـﺎﺹ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﻠﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳚﺮﻱ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﰲ ﻇﻠﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﲢﺎﻭﻝ ﺟﺎﻫﺪﺓ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺇﻃﺎﺭﺍ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻴﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟـﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻘﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺃﳘﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺇﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﻇﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﳛﺘـﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺗـﻮﻓﺮ ﺑﻴﺎﻧـﺎﺕ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺧﱪﺍﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﱪﺓ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﻳﺔ ﻟﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﺷﺘﻘﺎﻕ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺮﻓﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴـﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺇﻥ ﻛﺜﲑﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻘﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺗﺸﺘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻭ ﻻ ﺗﻼﺋﻢ ﺃﻭﺿﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﳑﺎ ﳚﻌﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺴﺒﺎﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫*ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــــﺒﻴﻘﻲ*‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﻧﺠﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺪﻕ ﺳﻴﺎﺣﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﺍﺯ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻧﺠﻮﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻧ ﺮﺍ ﻟﻸﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳋﻄﲑﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺮﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺩ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺿﻌﺖ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺔ ﻧﺼﺐ ﺃﻋﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺗﻨﻤﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘـﺮﺍﺙ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻮﻃﻦ ﻻﺣﺘﻮﺍﺋﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﻄﻮﺭﺓ ﲟﻜﺎﻥ ﻛﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﻮﺭﻭﺙ ﻏﲑ ﻛﺎﰲ ﻭ ﻗﺪﱘ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﳒﺮﺕ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻻ ﺗﻨﻔﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺴﺘﻌﻤﻞ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺇﻣﺎ ﻟﺘﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻏﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺃﻭ ﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﺭﺟﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪.‬‬‫ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﺍﻧﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﶈﻴﻂ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻀﻤﻨﺔ ﰲ ﺩﻓﺘﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺃﻋﺪﺗﻪ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﺮﻭﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﻭ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺛﺮﻭﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﻛﻴﺰﺓ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺮﺍﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺑﻌﺎﺩ‪.‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺜﺮﻭﺍﺕ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﰲ ﲨﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺗﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺛﺮﻭﺍﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺎﻓﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‪،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻧﻴﺔ ﲟﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺼﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﰲ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﱯ ﺃﻭ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺠﻤﺎﻡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎ ﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻧﺘﻌﺎ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺩ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻛﺜﲑﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺳﺮﻳﻊ ﻭﻣﺘﺮﺍﻣﻲ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ ﰲ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻻ ﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻈﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺮﺍﺣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻭﺃﻥ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺣﺔ ﺑﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻄﻠﻊ ﺇﱃ ﻗﻀﺎﺀ ﻋﻄﻠﺔ ﻣﻌﺘﱪﺓ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺣﻘﺎ ﻛﺴﺎﺋﺮ ﺍﳊﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎ ﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺃﺧﻮﻱ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﻨﻴﺔ ﲢﺘﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ ﻭ ﳑﺘﺪﺓ ﻋﱪ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎ ﻟﺘﻮﻓﲑ ﺃﻧﺴـﺐ‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﻏﺒﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻠﺪﻫﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺗﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﻌﺐ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺗﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻟﻴﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ‪ -‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻪ ﺍﳋﺼﻮﺹ ‪ -‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺑـﺮﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﳜﻴﺔ ﻟﻮﻃﻨﻬﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﻴﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺎﺟﺔ ﺇ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻭ ﺇﻋﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻌﻴﺸﻪ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪ ﻧﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻪ ﻧﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻜﺜﻒ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸـﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﻋﱪ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﺪﻋﻰ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻫﺎﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺎﺩﻕ ﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﺷﺨﺎﺹ ﺍﻟـﺬﻳﻦ ﺍﺿـﻄﺮﻭﺍ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻘﻞ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻣﻬﺎﻣﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻬﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎ ﺔ ﻣﻨﺘﻮ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮﻫﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺍﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻭﻻ‪ ،‬ﺃﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣـﻞ ﻣـﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺝ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻧﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﺗﺼﺎﻝ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﻌﻮﺏ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﻼ ﺛﺎﻧﻮﻳﺎ ﻭ ﻣﻜﻤﻼ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺴـﻴﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻣﻨﻬﺎﺝ ﻳﺄﺧﺬ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳚﺐ ﺍﻻﻟﺘﺰﺍﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻓـﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﺮﻗﻠﻬﺎ ﻧﻘﺺ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺂﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻳﺪﺧﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

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‫ﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟ ﺑﻨﻴ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﲤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﳎﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﶈﺎﺳﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣـﺎ ﺍﻷﺳـﺲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻻ ﲣﻀﻊ ﻟﺜﻮﺍﺑﺖ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﻭﻻ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﻭ ﲢﻜﻤﻬﺎ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻬﻧﺎ ﺧﻀﻌﺖ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻄـﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺿﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺒﻂ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺩﻗﺔ ﻭﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻋﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪:‬‬‫‪-‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻌﺮﻳ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪:‬‬

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‫ƒ ﻓﺮﻉ ﺍﻟﻨﺸــــــﺎﻁ‬ ‫ƒ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ƒ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﻭ ﺍﻹﻧﺸﺎﺀ‬ ‫ƒ ﻃﺒﻴﻌــﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫‪ .2.2‬ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻴ‬

‫ƒ‬ ‫ƒ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻓﻨﺪﻕ ﺑﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺃﺭﺿﻲ ‪ 5 +‬ﻃﻮﺍﺑﻖ‬ ‫ƒ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺳﻴﺎﺣﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮﻱ ﻋﻨﺎﺑﺔ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ƒ ﺟﺪﻳــــــــــــﺪ‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺪﻗــــﺔ ‪ -‬ﺳﻴــﺎﺣﺔ‬

‫ﺮ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻴـــﺮ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺎﺩﻕ ﺇﱃ ﺛﻼﺙ ﳒﻮﻡ ‪ :‬ﻓﻨﺪﻕ ﻓﺨﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺸﺮﻭﻥ ) ‪ ( 2 0‬ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ‪ ،‬ﻣﻬﻴﺄ ﻭ ﳏﻜـﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺛﻴﺚ‪ ،‬ﳛﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﲡﻬﻴﺰ ﻭ ﺯﺧﺮﻓﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺟﻮﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻄﻌﻢ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺎﻧﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫*ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻴــــﺮ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ‪ -:‬ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﻣﻊ ﺻﺎﻟﻮﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺃﻭ ﺣﺎﻧﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺣﺴـﺐ‬ ‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ) ‪ 60‬ﻡ‪ ٢‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ( ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﲢﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﺭﺑﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻮﻛﻴﺖ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ) ﻣﻮﺳﻴﻘﻰ ﻣﻨﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺃﺟﻬﺰﺓ ﺗﻠﻔﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ (‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺃﻥ ﲡﻬﺰ ﻣﻜﺎﺗﺐ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﺑﺸﺒﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﻜﻦ ﺑﻮﺍﺏ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺣﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﻴﺎﺏ ﻭ‬‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺻﺤﻲ ﻟﻠﺮﺟﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻬﻮ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﳌﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺧﻦ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻏﺮﻓـﺔ ﻫـﺎﺗﻒ‬

‫ﺧﺎﻣﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﻄﻨﲔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺣــﺎﻧﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻘﻬﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ‪.‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﻞ ﺑﺎﳌﻄﻌﻢ ﻧﻈﻴﻔﺔ ﻭ ﳏﻜﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ ) ﺍﻷﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺰﺑـﺎﺋﻦ ‪ 50 ) :‬ﻡ‬‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺯﺑﻮﻥ ﳏﺘﻤﻞ ( ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻭ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺃﺷﻬﻰ ﻭ ﺃﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﺄﻛﻮﻻﺕ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿـﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﲣﺼﻴﺺ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻩ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ ) ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺮﺟﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺎﺀ( ‪ ،‬ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺰﻭﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﺟﺪﻳﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻘﺮﺑﺔ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻷﻣـﺎﻛﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﻧﻈﻴﻔﺔ ﻭ ﺷﻐﺎﻟﺔ ﻭ ﳎﻬﺰﺓ ﲟﻐﺎﺳﻞ ﺗﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺧﻦ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺩ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻧﻘﻄﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺣﻨﻔﻴﺔ ﺧﻼﻃﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﻕ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻴﺾ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺑﻘﺪﺭ ﻛﺎﻑ‪ ،‬ﻓﻮﻁ ﻧﻈﻴﻔﺔ ) ﻓﻮﻁ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺭﻕ ﺃﻭ ﺟﻬـﺎﺯ ﲡﻔﻴـﻒ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﳍﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺧﻦ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺗﺴﺨﲔ ﺃﻭ ﺗﱪﻳﺪ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻀﻮﺭ ﻣﻮﻓﺮﺍ ﳍﻢ ﺗﻜﻴﻴﻔﺎ ﺟﻴﺪﺍ‪ .‬ﻭﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻏﺮﻓﺘﺎ ﻫﺎﺗﻒ ﺑﺒﻬﻮ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻷﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﲢﺖ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﻫﺎﺗﻒ ﺑﻜﻞ ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺗﺼﺎﻝ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺑﺎﳋﺎﺭﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺼﻌﺪ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ)‪ ( 3‬ﻃﻮﺍﺑﻖ‪ ،‬ﲟﺎ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻷﺭﺿﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﺩﺍﺏ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺍﺷـﺘﻤﻞ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﲑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﻳﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻗــﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺼﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﻈﲑﺓ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﺭﻭﻗﺘﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻤﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺑﺪﺍﺧﻠﻬﺎ ﺧﺎﻣﺪﺓ ﻟﻸﺻﻮﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﺮﻑ ‪ :‬ﺃﺩ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻃﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻐﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻡ ) ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻓﺎﺕ (‪:‬‬

‫ ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﻟﺸﺨﺺ ‪ 10 :‬ﻡ‬‫‪٢‬‬ ‫ ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﲔ ‪ 12 :‬ﻡ‬‫‪2‬‬

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‫ ﺃ ﺎ ﺍﻟ ﺮﻑ ‪ ) :‬ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﺎ ﲤﻴﻠــﻪ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻴــﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳉﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ‪(1‬‬‫ ﺃﺳﺮﺓ ﺑﻐﻄﺎﺀ ﻭ ﺑﻄﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺟﻴﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﺩ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﺮ ‪ 180x 190 :‬ﺳﻢ ‪.‬‬‫ ﺧﺰﺍﻧﺔ ﺻﻐﲑﺓ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺎﺯﻝ‪.‬‬‫ ﻃﺎﻭﻟــــﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻛﺮﺳﻲ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻓﺮﺩ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻘﻌﺪ ﻣﺮﻳﺢ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻏﺮﻓﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺧﺰﺍﺋﻦ ﻣﻊ ﺣﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﻼﺑﺲ ﻭﺭﻓﻮﻑ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﻨﻈﻔﺎﺕ ﺳﺠﺎﺋﺮ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺮﺁﺓ‪.‬‬‫ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺭﻣﻲ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‪.‬‬‫ ﺣﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻣﺘﻌﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺳﺠﺎﺩﺓ ﺳﺮﻳﺮ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻐﺴﻞ ﳐﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﺎﺯﻝ‪.‬‬‫ ﻻﻓﺘـﺔ ﻣﻜﺘﻮﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ " ﺍﻟﺮﺟﺎﺀ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻹﺯﻋﺎﺝ "‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺮﻑ‬‫ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎ ﻴﺔ ﻟﻠ ﺮﻑ ‪ :‬ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﻨﺸﺐ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﻟﻄﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺼﺒﺎﺡ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ ﺳﻘﻔﻲ ﻣﺴـﺘﻘﻞ‬‫ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻣﺼﺒﺎﺡ ﺳﺮﻳﺮ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺯﺑﻮﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻣﺼﺒﺎﺡ ﻟﻠﻘﺮﺍﺀﺓ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﻘﻌﺪ ﺍﳌﺮﻳﺢ ﻭ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻭﻟﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻜﻴﻴ‬

‫ﺍﻟ ﺮﻑ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘﻬﻮ ﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺘ ﻬﻴ‬

‫ﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﻌﻴ‬

‫ ﻣﺸﻌﺎﻉ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﻑ‪ ،‬ﲢﺴﺒﺎ ﻟﻠﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺧﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺗﺴﺨﲔ ﻭ ﺗﱪﻳﺪ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﻑ‪ ،‬ﻟﺘﻮﻓﲑ ﺗﻜﻴﻴﻒ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﻑ ) ﺑﲔ ‪ 18°‬ﻭ ‪ 16°‬ﺩﺭﺟﺔ (‬‫ﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠ ﺮﻑ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺭﺍﺩﻳﻮ ﺃﻭ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﳌﻮﺳﻴﻘﻰ ﺍﳌﻨﻮﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺗﺸﺘﻐﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻏﺮﻓﺔ‬

‫ﺎ‬

‫ﺔ ﻟ ﻮﺍﺕ ‪ :‬ﻋﻤﻠﻴــﺔ ﳏﻜﻤﺔ ﻹﲬﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﻨﲔ )ﻛﺘﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﺍﺕ (‪.‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ ﺍﻟﺘ ﻬﻴ ﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﻌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺼﺮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠ ﺮﻑ ‪ :‬ﻳﻨﺒﻐـﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻛﻞ ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﲪﺎﻡ ﺧﺎﺹ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴﺰ ) ﻣﻐﺴﻞ ‪،‬‬‫ﻣﻀﺨﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻐﻄﺲ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻩ (‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲡﻬﻴﺰ ﺍﳊﻤﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺈﻧﺎﺭﺓ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺁﺓ ﺑﺄﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻐﺴﻞ ﺑﺎﻹﺿـﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺸﺐ ﳐﺼﺺ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﻠﻖ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ ﻭ ﻣﺒﲔ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺑﻮﺿﻮﺡ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﻟﻄﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺻﺤﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺟﻴﺪﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻮﻁ‪ ،‬ﺻﺎﺑﻮﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﻕ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻴﺾ ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺑﺴﺎﻁ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺃﻏﻄﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺮ ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﺍﻷﻏﻄﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﻁ ﻳﻮﻣﻴﺎ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸ‬ ‫‪ .3.2‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺗﺮﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﺎﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‪ ،‬ﻳﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻮﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻓﻨﺪﻕ ﺛﻼﺙ ﳒﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﻳﻘﺪﺭ ﺏ ‪ 702‬ﻡ ‪ ، 2‬ﻓﻘـﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻣﺞ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﻭ ﺗﺼﻨﻴﻔﻪ ﺑـ ﺛﻼﺙ ﳒﻮﻡ ﻭ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺘﻪ‪ 441‬ﻡ‪ ، ٢‬ﻭ ﺳﻴﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺎﺑﻖ ﺃﺭﺿﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻃﺎﺑﻖ ﺳﻔﻠﻲ‪،‬‬ ‫ﲬﺴﺔ ) ‪ ( ٥‬ﻃﻮﺍﺑﻖ ﻭ ﺷﺮﻓﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻭ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺣﺎﻧﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﻘﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﲟﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺳﻴﺎﺣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺳﻴﺘﻀﻤﻦ ‪ 32‬ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮﻳﻦ ‪ 40 ،‬ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ‪ 8‬ﺃﺟﻨﺤﺔ‪.‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺠﻬﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﲟﻄﻌﻢ ﻳﺴﻊ ﻟـ ‪ 42‬ﻣﻜﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﻬﻰ ﻳﺴﻊ ﻟـ ‪ 18‬ﻣﻜﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﻬﻴﺄﺓ ﻭ ﻣﺮﺁﺏ ﻳﺴـﻊ ﻟــ ‪30‬‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺭﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﻭﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻌﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻳﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻮﻥ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﻧﺬﻛﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺽ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ‪.‬‬‫ ﳏﻞ ﲡﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺍﳍﺪﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﻛﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬‫‪ .4.2‬ﺍﻟﺴﻮ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬ‬

‫ﺪﻑ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻓﺘﺘــﺎﺡ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺎﺩﻕ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﻛﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻓﻴﺘﻞ ﺑﺎﳊﺎﻣﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺮﻛﻮﺭ ﺑﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺰﻭﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻫﻴﻠﺘﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﲑﺍﺗﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺻﻤﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺎﺩﻕ ﳏﺪﻭﺩﺓ ﻻ ﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴـﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺰﺑـﺎﺋﻦ ﺍﳌﻬﻤـﲔ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺟﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻪ ﺍﳋﺼﻮﺹ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻔﻴﻒ ﻧﻮﻋﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺪﺓ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺠـﺰ‬ ‫ﰲ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺍﻬﺗﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺇﻣﻀﺎﺀ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﺗﺴﻴﲑ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﺗﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺩ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺪﺍﺧﻴﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﻄﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﲝﺎﺟـﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ﺍﻹﻳﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﺄﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﳍﻢ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ .5.2‬ﻜﻠﻔ‬

‫‪,٤ ,‬‬

‫ﻳﻘﺪﺭ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﻟ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﺓ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺒﺔ ﺏ ‪ US$ 1.200.000‬ﺃﻱ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌـﺎﺩﻝ‬ ‫‪ ,٥ ,‬ﺩﺝ ﺃﻱ ‪ % 90‬ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺩﺝ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻳﻘﺪﺭ ﺏ‬ ‫‪ , ٤ ,‬ﺩﺝ ( ﻛﻀﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﻄﺎﻉ ‪ %10‬ﺃﻱ )‬ ‫‪.6.2‬‬ ‫*ﺩﺭﺍﺳ‬

‫ﺮﻭﻑ‬

‫ﺔ‬

‫ﻴ‬

‫ﲑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇ ﻏﺎﻳﺔ ﺇ ﺎ ﻩ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺔ ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺿﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﺒﲎ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻻ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺗﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮﻳـﺔ‬ ‫ﺃ ‪ -‬ﺍﻷﺭﺿﻴ‬ ‫ﲢﺖ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﲔ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺑﺄﻧﺴﺐ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴــﺎﺭﻩ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺣﻞ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮﻱ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﺟﺪ ﺑﲔ ﻣﺪﻳﻨﺔ ﻋﻨﺎﺑﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻟـــﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺮ ﺍﻟ ﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲡﻬﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﲟﺤﻮﻝ ﻛﻬﺮﺑـﺎﺋﻲ ‪ 240-20 KVA‬ﻛﻴﻠـﻮﺍﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻮﻟـﺪ‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻮﻓﻴ‬ ‫ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ ‪ 27‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﺍﻁ ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻧﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ‪.‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﻞ ﺑﻘﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺻﺮﻑ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺬﺭﺓ ﻣﱪﳎﺔ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻟﻺﳒﺎﺯ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ‪،‬ﻛﺎﳌﺎﺀ ﻭﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻻﺗﺼـﺎﻝ‬ ‫‪....‬ﺇ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺸ ﺎﺭﺍﺕ ‪ :‬ﻟﻘـــﺪ ﲤﺖ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺇﳒﺎﺯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﺎﺑﻘـــﺎ‪ .‬ﺳـﻮﻑ ﻳـﺘﻢ ﺇﺟـﺮﺍﺀ ﻋـﺪﺓ‬‫ﺍﺳﺘﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﺪﻯ ﳑﻮﻟﻴـﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﻘـﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﻟﻸﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻭ ﺍﻟـﺪﻋﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻛـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻧﻄ ﺍﻷ ﺎﻝ ‪ :‬ﺣــﺎﻝ ﲢﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﻭﺽ ﻟﺒﻨـﻚ ﺟﺰﺍﺋـﺮﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴــﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺿﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺎﺭﻳ‬ ‫ﺩ‪-‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 1‬ﺗﻘـــﺪﱘ ﻃﻠـﺐ ﻗـﺮﺽ ﺑﻨﻜـﻲ ﺑﻠﻴﺒﻴـــﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 3‬ﲢﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﻘـﺮﻭﺽ – ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﻃﻠﺐ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 4‬ﺍﺧﺘﻴــﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 5‬ﻣﻨﺢ ﺍﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 6‬ﺗﺴــﺪﻳﺪ ﻦ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 7‬ﻋﻘــﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﻨــﺎﺀ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 9‬ﺍﻧﻄـﻼﻕ ﺃﺷﻐﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﺎﺀ ﻣﺮﺣﻠـﺔ ﺃﻭﱃ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 13‬ﺍﻧﻄـﻼﻕ ﺃﺷﻐﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﺎﺀ ﻣﺮﺣﻠـﺔ ﺛﺎﻧﻴـﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 17‬ﺍﻧﻄـﻼﻕ ﺃﺷﻐﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﺎﺀ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺛـﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 19‬ﺍﻗﺘﻨــﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 20‬ﻃﻠﺒﻴــﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﻴـﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 21‬ﺍﺳﺘﻼﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﺎﺀ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 22‬ﺇﻗــﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 24‬ﺍﺳﺘﻼﻡ ﺇﻗـﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﻴـﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬـﺮ ‪ : 25‬ﺑــﺪﺍﻳـــﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻩ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻔ‬ ‫ﻮﺍ ﺪ ﺍﳌﺮﺟ ﻮ ‪ :‬ﻃﺒﻘـــﺎ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﳌﻔﻌﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﲟﻮﺟﺒﻪ ﺗﻮﻛﻞ ﻣﺴـﺆﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ) ‪ ، (ANDI‬ﻳﻨﻮﻱ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺴـﻬﻴﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﱪﳎﺔ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺟﻪ ﺍﳋﺼﻮﺹ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻋﻠ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺺ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﳉﻤﺮﻛﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ‪. %5‬‬

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‫ ﺍﻹﻋﻔـــﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻓـــﻊ ﻗﻴﻤــﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒـﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓـﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻣﺴﺘ ﻮﻯ ﺍﻻﺳﺘ ﻝ ‪:‬‬‫ ﺍﻹﻋﻔـــﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻓﻊ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺺ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﰲ ﺇﱃ ‪.%7‬‬‫ ﺍﻹﻋﻔﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻓﻊ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ) ‪. (IBS‬‬‫‪ .7.2‬ﲑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺗﺸﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ﺗﺄﺧﺮﺍ ﻣﻠﺤﻮﻇﺎ ﲟﺮﺍﻋﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﱪ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺃﳓﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺳـﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺬ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺴﺒﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﰲ ﺃﺯﻣﺎﺕ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻹﻳﻮﺍﺀ ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻣﺴـﺘﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﱪ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺳﻴﻤﺎ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺻﻤﺔ ﻭ ﺿﻮﺍﺣﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬ﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺇﳒﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﻫــــــــــــــــــــــﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸــــــــــــــــــــــﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﻟﻪ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺳﻴﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻣﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ‪ .‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺩﺧﺎﻝ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺧﻠﻖ ﻣﻨﺎﺻﺐ ﺷﻐﻞ ﰲ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋـﺎﺕ ﻣﻨـﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻔﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﻓﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺌﺠﺎﺭ ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ‪....‬ﺇ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﻞ ﰲ‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺔ ﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻮ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺩﺭﺍﺳ‬‫ﺗﻨﻘﺴـﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﻲ ﺇﱃ ﲬﺲ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ‪ :‬ﲤﺘﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ 1962‬ﺇﱃ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ ، 1985‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﲰﻴﺖ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳒﻤﺖ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻭﺧﻴﻤـﺔ‬‫ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﻣﻠﺤﻮ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ ، ١‬ﻭﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﺗﻐﲑﺍ ﻣﻠﺤﻮﻇﺎ ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻻﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟـﺔ ﺑﻘﻄـﺎﻉ‬ ‫ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴـﺔ ‪ :‬ﲤﺘﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ ١ ٥‬ﺇﱃ ﺳﻨﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻓﺘﺤﺖ ﺍﻷﺑﻮﺍﺏ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﳋﻮﺍﺹ ﻭﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫ ﺃﺛﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺘﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻨﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺿﻮﻱ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ١‬ﺇﱃ ﺳﻨﺔ‬

‫‪ ١‬ﲰﺤﺖ ﺍﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺑﻈﻬﻮﺭ ﳏﺘﺸـﻢ ﻟﻘﻄـﺎﻉ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

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‫ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ ،1990‬ﺳﺮﻋﺎﻥ ﻣﺎ ﻋﺮﻑ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﺭﻛﻮﺩﺍ‪ ،‬ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺍﻧﻌﻜﺲ ﺳﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬‫ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻌﺪﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺃﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ ، 1998‬ﻓﻘﺪ ﻋﺮﻓﺖ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻟﻠﺨﻮﺻﺼﺔ ﺑﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺧﻮﺻﺼﺔ‬‫ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻭﻇﻔﺖ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﻟ ﺿﺨﻤﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﻮﺻﺼﺔ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺗﻨﺪﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﻛﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﱪﻯ ﺿﻤﻦ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﳌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻭﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺗﺴﻮﻳﻖ ﻫﺎﻣﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳊﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻸﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺑﺄﻳﺪﻱ ﺃﻛﱪ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫـﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻤﺪﺓ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻭ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،2020‬ﺳﻴﺼﻞ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺍﺡ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺎﺭﺏ ‪1.6‬ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺷﺨﺺ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻗـــﺪ ﺗﺒﻴــﻦ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻟﻔﻴﻠﻢ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴـﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ) ﻡ ‪ .‬ﺩ ‪ .‬ﺱ ( ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻋﻘـﺪ ﲟﺪﻳﻨـﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻄﻤﺒﻮﻝ ) ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺎ ( ﺳﻨــﺔ ‪ ، 1997‬ﺑﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺻﺮﻓﻬﺎ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ‪ 2000‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺍﺡ ﺇﱃ ﺗﺪﻋﻴـﻢ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﳌﻀﻴﻒ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﻭﻓﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺰﻭﺍﺭ‪ .‬ﻭ ﰲ ﺗﺼﺮﻳﺢ‬ ‫ﺗﻘـﺪﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺒﲑ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﲟﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺪﻭﺓ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﺣﻮﻝ " ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﺍﻛﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴـﻴﺎﺣﺔ " ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟـﱵ‬ ‫ﻋﻘﺪﺕ ﺑﺎﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺻﻤﺔ ﺟﺎﺀ ﻓﻴﻪ " ﺳﻴﺒﻘﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮ ﺍﻷﺑﻴﺾ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺣﻮﺽ ﺳﻴﺎﺣﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ"‪.‬‬ ‫ﺇﻥ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﰲ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺍﺡ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺯﻳﺎﺭﻬﺗﻢ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﺮ ﺍﻷﺑﻴﺾ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻭ ﲢﻀﲑ ﺗﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺍﺡ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ) ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﻣﻴـﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳋﺎﺻـﺔ ( ﺗﻘـﺪﺭ ﺏ‬ ‫‪ 80.000‬ﺳﺮﻳﺮ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ‪ 40.000‬ﺳﺮﻳﺮ ﻣﺼﻨﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﳒﻢ )‪ (١‬ﺇﱃ ‪ 5‬ﳒﻮﻡ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﻻ ﻳﺴـﺘﺠﻴﺐ ﻷﺩ ﺷـﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺣـﺔ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﺧﺼﺎﺋﻴﲔ‪ .‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻭﻗﺪ ﺃﻇﻬـﺮﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺃﺟﺮﺍﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﰲ ﺃﻭﺍﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﺜﻤﺎﻧﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺑﺄﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﻲ ﺳﻴﺠﺴﺪ ﰲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ 2000‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻣﻠﺤﻮ ﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺒﻠ ‪ 110.000‬ﺳﺮﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺮﺍﺭ ﺟﲑﺍﻧﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻧﺴﻴﲔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻐﺎﺭﺑﺔ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻳﺘﺒﲔ ﺇﺫﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﲑ ﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺎﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﻌﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪ ،‬ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴـﻴﺎﺣﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ : 09‬ﻄ‬

‫ﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻄ ﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴ‬

‫ﺎ‬

‫)ﻭ ﺪ ﻭﺍ ﺪ (‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨــﻮﻉ‬

‫‪1990‬‬

‫‪1991‬‬

‫‪ ) 2002‬ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ (‬

‫ﻋﻤﺮﺍﱐ‬

‫‪25094‬‬

‫‪27206‬‬

‫‪32235‬‬

‫ﲝﺮﻱ‬

‫‪18972‬‬

‫‪18973‬‬

‫‪22480‬‬

‫ﺻﺤﺮﺍﻭﻱ‬

‫‪5026‬‬

‫‪5026‬‬

‫‪6076‬‬

‫ﲪﺎﻣﻲ‬

‫‪3714‬‬

‫‪3714‬‬

‫‪4489‬‬

‫ﻣﻨﺎﺧﻲ‬

‫‪1006‬‬

‫‪1006‬‬

‫‪1500‬‬

‫ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ‬

‫‪53812‬‬

‫‪55924‬‬

‫‪66780‬‬

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‫ﻳﺘﺒﻴـــﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﱂ ﺗﻌﺮﻑ ﺗﻘﺪﻣﺎ ﻣﻠﺤﻮﻇﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﺮﺍﱐ ﺑﻌـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺘﺘﺎﺡ ﻓﻨﺪﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻓﻴﺘﻞ ﻭ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺎﺩﻕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﺑﺎﳌﺪﻥ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻟﻮﺣﻆ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﻃﻔﻴﻒ ﰲ ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻜـﺬﺍ ﱂ‬ ‫ﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮﻱ ﺃﻱ ﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻠﺤﻮ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺘﻴﺔ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺃﳘﻞ ﲤﺎﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻹﳒﺎﺯﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﻘﻘﺖ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﺇﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺸﻬﺪ ﺗﺪﻫﻮﺭﺍ ﻓﺎﺩﺣﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺮﺍﻭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻘﻴﺖ ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺎﳍﺎ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺣﲔ ﻳﺸﻜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﻛﺎﺋﺰ ﺍﻟـﱵ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺎ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳊﻤﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﺼﻞ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺇﱃ ‪ 3714‬ﺳﺮﻳﺮﺍ‪ ،‬ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﺪﻋﻰ ﺑﺬﻝ ﺍﳉﻬﻮﺩ ﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗـﻪ‬ ‫ﻭ ﲡﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺗﻪ ﻛﻲ ﺗﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻭ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‪ .‬ﻫﻜﺬﺍ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﺒﲔ ﻣﺮﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﺮﻳـﻖ ﻣـﺎﺯﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻃﻮﻳﻼ‪ ،‬ﺣﱴ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﻲ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺴﺘﻘﻄﺐ ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ﻫﺎﺋﻼ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺍﺡ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﻏﻢ ﺍﻟﺜﺮﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮﺓ ﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟـﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺻﺤﺮﺍﺀ ﺷﺎﺳﻌﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺒﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺃﺛﺮﻳﺔ ‪.....‬ﺇ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﳌﻌﺎﳉﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﺗﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﺕ ﺃﺳﻬﻤﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﺩﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺮﻗﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻴﲑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﻲ‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﰲ ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻬﻤﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻗﺼﺪ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻓﻌﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳐﺘﻠـﻒ ﺍﻟﻮﺳـﺎﺋﻞ ‪ :‬ﺍﻹﺷـﻬﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳉﺮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺪﻭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﲤﺮﺍﺕ ‪....‬ﺇ ‪ ،‬ﻬﺑﺪﻑ ﻏﺰﻭ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﰲ ﺇﻣﻀﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻴﲑﻳﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﻨﺪﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﻳﺴﺘﻄﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﻴﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺧﱪﺍﻬﺗﻢ‬ ‫ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻩ‪ -‬ﰲ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺘﻤﻮﻝ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣــﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩ‪ -‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺳﺘﻤﻨﺢ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫‪ -4‬ﺍﳌ ﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘ ﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸ ﺮﻭﻉ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ .1.4‬ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻹﻳﻮﺍ ﻭ ﻘﺪ ﻭﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻌﺎﻡ ‪ :‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺇﳚﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﱪﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃ‪-‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟ ﻳﻮﺍ ‪ :‬ﺃﻧﻈﺮ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺏ‪-‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻮﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻌﺎﻡ ‪ :‬ﺃﻧﻈﺮ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ‪13‬‬ ‫ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﺴﺘﻘﻄﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﺑﻔﻀﻞ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻮﻓﺮﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻋﺪﺩﺍ ﻛﺒﲑﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟـﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﺘﻄﻠﻌـﻮﻥ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫‪12‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺭﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﻨﺤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺎﺩﻕ ﺍﻟﻜﱪﻯ‪.‬‬

‫ ﻣﺴﺘ ﻮﻯ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﺗﻌﺘﻤـــﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﻴـﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺻـﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴـﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪ .2.4‬ﻗﺪﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪:‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﻗﺪﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﻣﻮﺿﺤﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ‪ ،١٢‬ﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﻦ ﻳﺆﺧﺬ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺇﻻ ‪ %‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ ﻟﻘـﺪﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻳﻮﺍﺀ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﻭﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻌﺎﻡ ﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻭﺇﻥ ﺍﳊﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺳﻴﺸـﻨﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻮﻥ ﺳﺘﺴﺘﻬﺪﻑ ﻓﺌﺔ ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺔ ﻭﻭﻓﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﺍﳌﻄﺎﻟﺒﲔ ﲟﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺭﻓﻴﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺼﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﻬﻢ ﺇﱃ ‪%90‬‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ 10‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 3.4‬ﺍﻟﺘ ﻬﻴ ﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻜﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ :‬ﺗﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻣﺴﺨﻨﺔ ﺗﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺁﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﳌﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺧﻦ ﻟﻠﺤﻤﺎﻡ ﻭﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ‪.‬‬‫ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺗﻜﻴﻴﻒ ﺛﻼﺛﻲ ﺍﻷﺟﻬﺰﺓ‪.‬‬‫‪ -‬ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﳌﻜﺎﻓﺤﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺋﻖ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺗﻨﺒﺆ ﺃﻭﺗﻮﻣﺎﺗﻴﻜﻲ‪.‬‬

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‫‪ 1.3.4‬ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺃﻧ ﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﺌﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻴ ‪:‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ ﺇﻥ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﺌﺔ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﺸﻌﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﳌﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺧﻦ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻱ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬‫ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻴﻒ ﺑﻮﺍﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﻜﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺛﻼﺛﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺭﺍﺣﺔ ﺗﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺰﺑﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﻣﻊ‬‫ﺗﻄﻬﲑ ﺍﳍﻮﺍﺀ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2.3.4‬ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻷﺭﺿﻴﺔ ﻭ ﻭ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺳﺘﻘــﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﻴـــﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺭﺿﻴـﺔ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺘﻬـﺎ ‪ 702‬ﻡ‪ ،٢‬ﻭﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﻛﻤﺎ ﰎ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻤﻪ ﻳﻜـﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺪﻗﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﺍﺯ ﺛﻼﺙ ﳒﻮﻡ‪.‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺂﺕ ﺗﺘﻮﺯﻉ ‪،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ) ﺃﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‪ : (1‬ﻃﺎﺑﻖ ﺳﻔﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺟﻞ‬ ‫ﺧﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﻐﺴﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﻴﺎﺏ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﺘﻮﺩﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺭﺷﺔ ﺻﻴﺎﻧﺔ‪ ،‬ﻃﺎﺑﻖ ﺃﺭﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﺣﻈﲑﺓ ﺳﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﺴﻊ ﻟـ ‪ 30‬ﺳﻴﺎﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﺧﻞ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﺧﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻓﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺒﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺻﺤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﳏﻞ ﲡﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﻄﻌﻢ‪ ،‬ﻣﻄﺒﺦ‪ ،‬ﺻﺎﻟﻮﻥ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻛﺸﻚ‪ ،‬ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﻫﺎﺗﻒ ﻭﺣﺎﻧﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﻄـﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ 20 :‬ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻟﺜــﺎﱐ ‪ 20 :‬ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻟﺜـﺎﻟﺚ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ ‪ 16 :‬ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮﻳﻦ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺑـﻖ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ‪ 8 :‬ﺃﺟﻨﺤــــﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﺷﺮﻓــﺔ ﻣﻬﻴــﺄﺓ ﻭﳎﻬــﺰﺓ‪.‬‬‫‪2‬‬ ‫ ﺳــﻼﱂ ﻭﻣﺼﻌـــﺪ ﻛﻬـﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ ﺏ ‪ 2‬ﻡ‬‫ ﻬﺗﻴﻴﺌـــﺎﺕ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴـــﺔ‪.‬‬‫‪3.3.4‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﻟ ﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ ﺍﻟﻄ ﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎ ﻴ ﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﺰﻭﻳﺪ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﺃﺻﻼ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ‪.‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﳏﻮﻝ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ‬‫ﻃﺎﻗﺘـﻪ ‪ 240‬ﻛﻠﻮﺍﻁ‪ ،‬ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﻠﻀﻮﺍﺑﻂ ﺍﻷﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻬﻼﻛﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪.‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟـﺔ ﺍﻧﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑـﺎﺋﻲ ﻓﻘـﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻣﺞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ ﻃﺎﻗﺘﻪ‪ 27‬ﻛﻠﻮﺍﻁ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺍﳌﺎ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺘﺰﻭﻳﺪ ﺑﺎﳌﺎﺀ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﺃﺻﻼ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ‪،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﰎ ﺑﺮﳎﺔ ﺧﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﻊ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺋﻖ‪.‬‬‫ ﻭﺳﺎ ﻞ ﺍﻻ ﺼﺎﻝ ‪ :‬ﺧﻂ ﻫﺎﺗﻔﻲ ﻣﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﲟﻘﺴﻢ ﻫﺎﺗﻔﻲ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﰲ ﻛﻞ ﻏﺮﻓﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ ﻓﺴﺘﻜﻮﻥ‬‫ﺇﺣﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﺘﻤﺪﺓ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺣﺠﺰ ﺍﻟﻐﺮﻑ ﻭﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻈﺎﻫﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .5‬ﺍﻟ ﻮﺳﺎ ﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠ‬

‫ﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫‪ .1.5‬ﺍﻟﻌﻤ ﺎﻝ ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﻓﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﲔ ﻣﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺍﺕ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﱄ‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺭﻭﺍﺗﺒﻬﻢ ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻷﻋﺒﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﺃﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ . 4‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﻮﻇﻔﲔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﲡﺮﺑﺘﻬﻢ ﻭﻛﻔـﺎﺀﻬﺗﻢ ﻗﺼـﺪ ﺗـﻮﻓﲑ ﺃﺣﺴـﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـــﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫‪ ,‬ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ‬

‫ﻢ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴﻴ‬

‫ﻦ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴ‬

‫ﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳ‬

‫ﻞ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺈﻋـﺪﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﺟﺒـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻌﺎﻡ )ﳊـﻮﻡ ‪،‬ﳊـﻮﻡ ﺩﻭﺍﺟـﻦ ‪،‬‬ ‫ﲢﻠﻴﺎﺕ ‪...‬ﺇ (‬

‫ﳏﻠﻴـــــﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺸﺮﻭﺑﺎﺕ )ﻗﻬﻮﺓ ‪،‬ﺣﻠﻴﺐ ‪ ،‬ﻋﺼﲑ (‬

‫ﳏﻠﻴــــﺔ‬

‫ﻭﻗــﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺯﻳــــﻮﺕ‬

‫ﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺑ‬

‫ﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﺩ‬

‫ﺧﺼﺎ‬

‫ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻋﺎﻟﻴـــــﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﻋﺎﻟﻴــــﺔ‬ ‫‪/‬‬

‫ﻧﻔﻄـﺎﻝ‬

‫‪/‬‬

‫ﻣـــــــــــﺎﺀ ﻣﺆﺳﺴـــﺔ ﺗﻮﺯﻳــﻊ ﺍﳌﻴـﺎﻩ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻛﻬــﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻭ ﻏــــﺎﺯ‬

‫ﳏﻠـــﻲ‬

‫‪/‬‬

‫ﻣﻨﻈﻔـﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻣﻄﻬــﺮﺍﺕ‬

‫ﳏﻠـﻴﺔ‬

‫‪/‬‬

‫ﺳﻠـــﻊ ﻹﻋـﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻴـــﻊ‬

‫ﳏﻠﻴـﺔ‬

‫ﻧﻮﻋﻴــﺔ ﺳﻴـﺎﺣﻴـﺔ‬

‫‪ 3.5‬ﻔﺼﻴ‬

‫ﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺴ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮ ﺪﺍﺕ ‪ :‬ﺃﻧﻈــﺮ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪. ١٥‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫‪ .‬ﻘ‬ ‫‪ .1.6‬ﺟ‬

‫ﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺼ ﺎﺭﻳ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘ‬

‫ﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎ ﺑﺎﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣ ‪ :‬ﻗــﺪ ﰎ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺛﻘﲔ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪.‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

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‫‪ . 2.6‬ﺍﻷﻋﺒ ﺎ ﺍﳋ ﺎ ﺔ ﺑ ﺭﺑﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ‪ :‬ﺗﻘﺘﺼــﺮ ﺃﻋﺒـﺎﺀ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ %‬ﻣﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺮﻭﺍﺗـﺐ ﰲ ﺇﻃـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻟﺘﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ، ANDI‬ﺃﻱ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ 655200‬ﺩﺝ ﻟﺘﺼﻞ ﻧﺴـﺒﺘﻬﺎ ﻣـﺎ ﺑﻌـﺪ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ‪ %24‬ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻌﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .3.6‬ﺍﳋ ﺪﻣﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﺗﻌﺘﻤــﺪ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺗﺼﻠﻴﺢ ﻭ ﺻﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻹﺷـﻬﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻣـﺎ ﻳﻌـﺎﺩﻝ‬ ‫‪ 1.851.981‬ﺩﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ :‬ﻭ ﺗﺘﻤﺜـــﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ .4.6‬ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳ‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻘــﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻــﺔ ﺑﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺃﻧﺸﻄـﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﻴﺔ ﻣﺎﻋﺪﺍ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘـﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺴـﺘﺨﺪﻣﲔ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻀـﻤﻨﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻘﻼﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺗﺼﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺃﻛﱪ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳍﺎﺗﻒ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺗﻘــﺪﺭ ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﲔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ) ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻭ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ( ﺏ ‪ % 2.5‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪١, ١ ,٢٣‬ﺩﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﻳﺒﻠ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ‪ 5.217.230‬ﺩﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .5.6‬ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺍ ﻡ ‪ :‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﺮﻑ ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﺰﻭﺩﺓ ﺑـ ‪ :‬ﺻﺎﺑﻮﻥ ‪ ،‬ﻏﺴﻮﻝ ﻟﻠﺸﻌﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻏﻄﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺑﻄﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻐﺬﺍﺋﻴﺔ ﺑـ ‪ %30‬ﻣﻦ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﺍ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺪﺭ ‪ %‬ﻣﻦ ﻣﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﶈﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻔﻨـﺪﻕ ﺳـﻠﻌﺎ ﺫﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﻮﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﳐﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻮﺍﺡ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﺄﺟﺮﻳﻦ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﺍﺯﻡ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻓﺮﺓ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺗﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻒ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﻬﲑ‪.‬‬‫ ﻟﻮﺍﺯﻡ ﻣﻜﺘﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬‫ ﻗﻄﻊ ﻏﻴﺎﺭ ﻟﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ‪.‬‬‫ﻳﺒﻴــﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ .١‬ﺗﻔﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﲔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺎﺭﺍﺕ ‪ :‬ﻳﺸﻴــﺮ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ 19‬ﺇﱃ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ‬ ‫‪ .7‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘ ﺜ ﻤ‬ ‫)‪ ، (TTC‬ﻓﺘﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﳉﻤﺮﻛﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺼﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ‪ ، %5‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭ ﺗﺄﻣﲔ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺏ ‪ % 2‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟـ ﻡ‪ ٢‬ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺒﲎ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﻘﺪﺭ ﺑـ ‪ 20.000‬ﺩﺝ ﳌﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺎﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺎﻣﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﻨﺠﺰﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺱ ﻣﻌﺘﻤﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 1.7‬ﺍﻷﺭ ‪ :‬ﻳﻘــــﺪﺭ ﺳﻌﺮ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗﻴﺔ ﺑـ ‪1.684.000‬ﺩﺝ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2.7‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨ‬

‫ﺎ ﻭ ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳ‬

‫ﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻤﺎﺭﻳ‬

‫ﺔ ‪ :‬ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳊﻔﺮ‪ ،‬ﺍﳊﻴﻄﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻀﺨﻤﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﻤـﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﺎﺀ‬

‫ﺃﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺯﺟﺎﺟﻴﺔ ‪...‬ﺇ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﻘﺪﺭ ﺳﻌﺮ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺷﻐﺎﻝ ﺏ ‪ 48.400.000‬ﺩﺝ‪ ،‬ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺟـﺪﺍﺭ ﺳـﻴﺎﺝ ﻳﻘـﺪﺭ‬ ‫ﺑـ ‪530.000‬ﺩﺝ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫‪ ,‬ﺍﳌﻌ‬

‫ﺪﺍﺕ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﻣﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺃ‪ -‬ﺗﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺗﺪﻓﺌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺨﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﻧﺒﻮﺏ ﳎﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻧﺒﻮﺏ ﻟﻠﻤﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺧﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺎﺀ ﺍﺣﺘـﻮﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻣﻦ ‪ 40‬ﻣﺸﻌﺎﻉ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﻳﻘﺪﺭ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﻬﺎ ﺏ ‪ 800.000‬ﺩﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ‪ -‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻓﺘﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ :‬ﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ ﻭﺟﻬﺎﺯ ‪ ، DRARIA‬ﺗﻘﺪﺭ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﱄ ‪ 65000 :‬ﺩﺝ ﻭ ‪850 000‬ﺩﺝ ) ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ ( ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺝ‪ -‬ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻴﻒ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺛﻼﺛﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻘﺪﺭ ﺑـ ‪ 6.175.000‬ﺩﺝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘ ﻣﻴﻨﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﺗﻘـﺪﺭ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑـﺎﻟﻨﻘـﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺏ ‪ % 2‬ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﻘـﺪﺭ‬ ‫‪ 4.7‬ﺍﻟﻨﻘ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ ﺑﺎﻟـ‪ TTC‬ﲝﻮﺍﱄ ‪ 584.258‬ﺩﺝ‪.‬‬

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‫‪ ,‬ﺍﻟﺘ‬

‫ﺮ ﻴ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺮﻳ ﻭ ﺸ ﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ‪ :‬ﻭ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﻭ ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﺳـﻴﻠﻲ‬

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‫ﺫﻛﺮﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺳﻌﺮﻫﺎ ﻳﺪﺧﻞ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﺑﺎﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻴﻒ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺨﻴــﻦ‪.‬‬‫ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳــﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﻬـﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ‪.‬‬‫ﻞ ‪ :‬ﻳﺒﻴــﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ .٢‬ﺗﻔﺎﺻﻴﻞ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗـﺮﺽ ﻗﻴﻤﺘـﻪ‬ ‫‪.‬ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳ‬ ‫‪ ١, , US$‬ﺃﻱ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﺎﺩﻝ‪ 88.560.000‬ﺩﺝ‪ ،‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﻄﺎﻉ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ‪ % 10‬ﻛﻀـﻤﺎﻥ ﺃﻱ ﻣـﺎ ﻳﻌـﺎﺩﻝ ‪ , ٤ ,‬ﺩﺝ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺘﻢ ﲢﺮﻳﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺳﺘﻼﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺴﺘﻌﻤﻞ ﻛﺮﺃﺱ ﻣﺎﻝ ﺟﺎﺭ ﻻﻧﻄﻼﻗﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .9‬ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻳﻘــﻮﻡ ﺍﳌﺆﺳﺴﻮﻥ ﺑﻄﻠﺐ ﻗﺮﻭﺽ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ‪ % 100‬ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻮﺯﻋﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻨﺤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﻠﻴﱯ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﻄﺎﻉ ‪ %10‬ﻛﻀﻤﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﺳﺘﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻧﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺇﱃ ‪% 3‬‬ ‫ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﺄﺟﻴﻞ ﻣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺪﻳﺪ ﺑـ ‪ 3‬ﻭ ‪ 7‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺒﲔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ .٢٤‬ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺁﺟﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻓﺼﻠﻴﺎ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﻓﺘﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺴﺘﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﺴﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪.‬ﺍﻻﻫﺘ ﺎﺕ ‪ :‬ﻳﺒﻴــﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ .٢٢‬ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻼﻛﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ‪ 10‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﺌﻮﻳﺔ )‪(%‬‬ ‫ﻟﻺﻫﺘﻼﻛﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺪﻬﺗﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻌﻤﻮﻝ ﻬﺑﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﺪﻗـــﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ . 11‬ﺍ ﺴ ﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻘ‬

‫ﺪﻳﺮﻱ ﻟ ﺳﺘ ﻝ ‪ :‬ﻳﺒﻴــﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ .٢٣‬ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﻱ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﺬﺍ‬

‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ‪ 10‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ‪ % 80‬ﻣﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻓﺘﺘـﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻔﻨـﺪﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﻣﻲ ﺣﱴ ﺗﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ ‪ %90‬ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ 10‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﻓﺘﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻣﻦ ‪ 0,5‬ﺇﱃ ‪ % 1‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﻧﻔﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

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‫ﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ ‪ :‬ﻳﺒﲔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻻﻥ ﺭﻗﻤﺎ ‪ ٢‬ﻭ ‪ 27‬ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺻﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺍﳋﺼﻮﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﱄ‬ ‫ﺔﻭ ﻘ‬ ‫‪ .‬ﻣﻴ ﺍﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻓﺘﺘ ﺎ ﻴ‬ ‫ﻭ ﲡﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳉﺎﻫﺰﺓ ﺗﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻣﻦ ‪ , ٢٢, ٢‬ﺩﺝ ‪ ،‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﺳﻨﺔ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺘﺎﺡ ﺇﱃ ‪ 61.833.396‬ﺩﺝ ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﻭ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺎﰲ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺗﺴﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺎ ‪ :‬ﻳﺒﻴـــﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻻﻥ ﺭﻗﻤﺎ ‪ 28‬ﻭ ‪ 29‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻧﺴﺐ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ‪ 10‬ﺳـﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .‬ﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻷﺭﺑ‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﶈﻘﻘــﺔ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺎ ﺍﻧﻄﻼﻗﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻐﻄﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺒــﺮﺯ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻬﻤﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ) ﺃﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ ( 30‬ﳑﺘﺎﺯﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﻞ ﻧﺴﺐ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒـــﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠـــﺔ ﺗﻔﻮﻕ ﺑﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻌﻴـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺼﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋـﺮ ﺇﱃ ) ‪ ، 0.82 ( -‬ﻧﺴﺘﻨـﺘﺞ ﻣﻦ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺮﺑﺢ ﺑﻘﺪﺭ ﻛﺒﲑ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ : 11‬ﺑﻨﻴ‬ ‫ﻨﺘﻮ‬

‫ﺍﳌ‬

‫ﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌ‬

‫ﻏﺮﻑ ﺑﺴﺮﻳــﺮ ﻭﺍﺣــﺪ‬

‫ﻣﺴﺎ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻮ ﺪ ) ﻡ (‬

‫ﺪﺩ‬ ‫‪40‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪17.5‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪63‬‬

‫ﻣﻄﺒـــﺦ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪36‬‬

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‫‪1‬‬

‫‪24‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪70‬‬

‫ﳎﻤﻊ‬

‫‪6‬‬

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‫‪1‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫ﳏﻞ ﲡﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫ﻛﺸﻚ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫ﻃـﺎﺑﻖ‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪252‬‬

‫ﻏﺮﻑ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮﻳﻦ ﻓﺌﺔ‬

‫)ﺃ(‬

‫ﺃﺟﻨﺤــــﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﺧﺎﺻـﺔ ﺑﻔﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼـﺒﺎﺡ ﺳـﻌﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻜﺎﻥ‬

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‫ﻣﻄﻌﻢ ﺳﻌﺘــﻪ ‪ 42‬ﻣﻜﺎﻥ‬

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‫ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻏﺮﻑ ﻫﺎﺗﻔﻴــﺔ – ﻓﺎﻛﺲ – ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﻧﺴﺦ‬

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‫ﻃﺎﺑﻖ ﺃﺭﺿﻲ‬

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‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻠﻴﺎﱄ‬ ‫)ﺍﳌﺒﻴ (‬

‫ﻗﺪﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺘﺮ ﻃﻮﱄ‬

‫‪106‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪702‬‬

‫ﻢ ‪ : 12‬ﺍﻹﻳ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﳉ ﺍ ﺮﻱ‬ ‫ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺸﺨ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍ ﺪ‬

‫ﻮﺍ‬ ‫ﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﺌ‬

‫ﻧﺴﺒ‬ ‫ﺇ‬

‫‪%80‬‬

‫ﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤ‬

‫ﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳ‬

‫ﺔ‬

‫ﻏﺮﻓـﺔ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬

‫‪14600‬‬

‫‪800‬‬

‫‪11680‬‬

‫‪9344000‬‬

‫ﻏﺮﻓــﺔ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮﻳﻦ‬

‫‪23360‬‬

‫‪600‬‬

‫‪18688‬‬

‫‪11212800‬‬

‫ﺃﺟﻨﺤـــﺔ‬

‫‪11680‬‬

‫‪1100‬‬

‫‪9344‬‬

‫‪10278400‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ‬

‫‪49640‬‬

‫‪39712‬‬

‫‪30835200‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺟ‬

‫ﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ‬

‫ﺔ‬

‫ﻢ ‪ : ١٣‬ﻣﻄ ﻌ ﻢ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋ‬

‫)ﺍﻟﻮ‬ ‫ﻘ‬

‫ﺪ ﻭﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﻌﺎﻡ‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺪﺍﺧﻴﻞ‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪7 942‬‬

‫‪7 942‬‬

‫‪1191,4‬‬

‫ﻣﻄﻌﻢ ‪ 42‬ﻣﻜﺎﻥ‬

‫‪9 531‬‬

‫‪15 885‬‬

‫‪25 416‬‬

‫‪10166,3‬‬

‫ﻣﻘﻬــﻰ‬

‫‪6 354‬‬

‫‪23 827‬‬

‫‪30 181‬‬

‫‪2414,5‬‬

‫ﺻﺎﻟﻮﻥ‬

‫‪9 531‬‬

‫‪23 827‬‬

‫‪33 358‬‬

‫‪3335,8‬‬

‫‪9 928‬‬

‫‪19 856‬‬

‫‪29 784‬‬

‫‪7446‬‬

‫ﳏﻞ ﲡﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫‪1 906‬‬

‫‪11 914‬‬

‫‪13 820‬‬

‫‪4145,9‬‬

‫ﻛﺸﻚ‬

‫‪1 986‬‬

‫‪23 827‬‬

‫‪25 813‬‬

‫‪2581280‬‬

‫‪27 798‬‬

‫‪27 798‬‬

‫‪2779,8‬‬

‫ﻓﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺒﺎﺡ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟ ﺑﺎ ﻦ ﺍﶈﻠﻴ‬

‫ﺪ ﺑ ﻟ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ (‬

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‫ﺪ ﺑ ﻟ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ (‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬

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‫ﺍﳌﺴﻴـــﺮ‬

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‫‪40‬‬

‫‪480‬‬

‫ﺳﻜﺮﺗﲑﺓ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪144‬‬

‫ﻣﺴﺆﻭﻝ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪20‬‬

‫‪240‬‬

‫ﺣﺎﺭﺱ ﻟﻴﻠﻲ‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪11‬‬

‫‪528‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪18‬‬

‫‪216‬‬

‫ﻣﺴﺆﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﶈﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪18‬‬

‫‪216‬‬

‫ﻭﺻﻴﻒ‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪960‬‬

‫ﻣﺴﺆﻭﻝ ﻣﻄﻌﻢ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪30‬‬

‫‪360‬‬

‫ﻧﺎﺩﻝ‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪14‬‬

‫‪1 008‬‬

‫ﺭﺋﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﺎﺧﲔ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪28‬‬

‫‪336‬‬

‫ﺃﻣﲔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭﻕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﻭ ﺭﺋﻴﺲ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﺎﺧﲔ‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪720‬‬

‫ﺟﺰﺍﺭ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪180‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻄﻌﺎﻡ‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪16‬‬

‫‪768‬‬

‫ـﻮﺭ‬ ‫ـﲑ ﻓﻄـ‬ ‫ـﺌﻮﻝ ﲢﻀـ‬ ‫ﻣﺴـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﺒﺎﺡ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪300‬‬

‫ﻧﺎﺩﻝ‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪576‬‬

‫ﻣﺴــﺆﻭﻝ ﺍﻹﻳﻮﺍﺀ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪17‬‬

‫‪204‬‬

‫ﻋﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻒ‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

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‫ﻋﺎﻣﻠﻮ ﻣﻐﺴﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﻴﺎﺏ‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪432‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻴﺔ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪14‬‬

‫‪168‬‬

‫ﺻﻴﺎﻧﺔ ﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﺍﻟﺒﺨﺎﺭ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪180‬‬

‫ﺣﺮﺍﺱ‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪384‬‬

‫ﻤﻮﻉ ﻓﺮﻋ‬

‫‪58‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺃﻋﺒـﺎﺀ ﺃﺭﺑﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫)ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻄـﻮﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ (‬ ‫‪%‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬

‫‪9360‬‬ ‫‪655, 2‬‬

‫‪43765, 737‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﻢ ‪ : 15‬ﻔﺼﻴ‬

‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮ‬

‫ﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺴ‬

‫ﺪ‬ ‫)ﺍﻟﻮ‬

‫ﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺨ ﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻃـــﺎﻭﻟــﺔ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺭﻓـــﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺍﺳــــــﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌ‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫ﺪﺩ‬

‫ﺳﻌ‬

‫ﺮ ﺍﻟﻮ‬ ‫‪8‬‬

‫‪16‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪3,5‬‬

‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪68‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻧ ﺔ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻃـﺎﻭﻟـــــﺔ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺭﻓــــﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﻛـﺮﺍﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﳋـﺮﺍﻃـــﺔ‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪16‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪30‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪3,5‬‬

‫‪7‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫ﻣﺴ‬

‫ﺔ ﺍﻹ ﺎﻟﻴ ﺔ‬

‫‪45‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫ﻭﺭ‬

‫ﺪ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤ‬

‫ﺪ ﺑ ﻟ‬

‫‪113‬‬

‫ﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﻴﺎﺏ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﻃﺎﻭﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺭﻓﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺍﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﺁﻟــﺔ ﻏﺴﻴــﻞ‬ ‫ﳎﻔﻔـــــﺔ‬ ‫ﺁﻟــﺔ ﻛﻲ‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪20‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪30‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪3,5‬‬

‫‪14‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪100‬‬

‫‪200‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪75‬‬

‫‪75‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪65‬‬

‫‪65‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫‪404‬‬

‫ﺍ ﺎﻧﺔ‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﻣﻜﺘﺐ ﺻﺮﺍﻓــﺔ‬ ‫ﺁﻟــﺔ ﲢﻀﻴـﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻬﻮﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﻴــﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘـﺪﱘ‬ ‫ﻃﺎﻭﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺍﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺭﻓـــﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﲡﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺗﱪﻳــــﺪ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﻣﺴﺠــــﻞ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺮﻋ‬

‫ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ (‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪75‬‬

‫‪75‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪65‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪6,5‬‬

‫‪6,5‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪6,5‬‬

‫‪97,5‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪3,5‬‬

‫‪140‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪1,5‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪55‬‬

‫‪165‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪561‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫ﺗــﺎﺑـــﻊ ‪:‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻃـــﺎﻭﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺍﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﻄﻴــــﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﻄﻴـﺔ ﻣﻮﺍﺋـﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻜﺘﺐ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬ ‫ﺸ‬ ‫ﻣﻜﺘـﺐ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺭﻓـــﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺟﻬــــﺔ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌ‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫ﺪﺩ‬

‫ﺳﻌ‬

‫ﺮ ﺍﻟﻮ‬ ‫‪9‬‬

‫ﺪ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤ‬

‫ﺔ ﺍﻹ ﺎﻟﻴ ﺔ‬

‫‪108‬‬

‫‪50‬‬

‫‪2,5‬‬

‫‪125‬‬

‫‪50‬‬

‫‪1,6‬‬

‫‪80‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪0,8‬‬

‫‪9,6‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪30‬‬

‫‪30‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪2,5‬‬

‫‪7,5‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪352,6‬‬

‫‪40,5‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻘﻬ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﻣﻜﺘـــﺐ‬ ‫ﺁﻟــﺔ ﻃﻬـﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻬـﻮﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﲢﻀﻴـﺮ ﺍﻟﺸــﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﻴــﺔ ﺗﻘـﺪﱘ‬ ‫ﻃـﺎﻭﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻛـﺮﺍﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﻄﻴــﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺋـﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺩﻳـﻞ‬ ‫ﲡﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ ﺗﱪﻳـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪75‬‬

‫‪75‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪6,5‬‬

‫‪6,5‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪7‬‬

‫‪84‬‬

‫‪36‬‬

‫‪3,5‬‬

‫‪126‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪0,8‬‬

‫‪9,6‬‬

‫‪36‬‬

‫‪0,3‬‬

‫‪10,8‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪383,9‬‬

‫ﻭﺩﻳﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤ ﺑﺲ‬

‫ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺣﺪﻳﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺭﻓـــﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﻃﺎﻭﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻤﻮﻉ ﻓﺮﻋ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪16‬‬

‫‪16‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪1,8‬‬

‫‪9‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪0,5‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪6,5‬‬

‫‪6,5‬‬ ‫‪36,5‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﻞ‬

‫ﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫ﻣﻜﺘــﺐ ﺻـﺮﺍﻓـــﺔ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻋـﺔ ﺭﻓـــﻮﻑ‬ ‫ﻣﻌـــــــﻼﻕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺟﻬـــــــﺔ‬ ‫ﻤﻮﻉ ﻓ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘ‬

‫ﺮﻋ‬

‫ﻘﺒﺎﻝ –‬

‫ﻮﻥ‬

‫ﺎﻟ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻣﻜﺘــﺐ ﺻـﺮﺍﻓـﺔ‬ ‫ﺻﻨـﺪﻭﻕ ﻣﺴﺠـﻞ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﻳﻜــﺔ ﻭ ﻃـﺎﻭﻟـﺔ ) ﺭﺯﻣﺔ (‬ ‫ﻻﺋﺤـــﺔ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﺗﻴـﺢ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﺳــﺎﺋﻞ‬ ‫ﺳـﺮﻳـﺮ ﻟﻠﺤـﺮﺍﺳـــﺔ‬ ‫ﺇﻳﺪﺍﻉ – ﺧﺰﻳﻨــﺔ ﺣﺪﻳﺪﻳـــﺔ‬ ‫ﺟﻬــﺎﺯ ﺗﻠﻔﺰﻳﻮﻥ ﺑﺸــﺎﺷـﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬ ‫ﻗ ﺎﻋ‬

‫ﺔ ﺼﺼ‬

‫ﺔ ﻟﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻓﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺒﺎ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﻣﻜﺘـﺐ ﺻـﺮﺍﻓـــﺔ‬ ‫ﺁﻟـــﺔ ﻗﻬـﻮﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﺍﺕ ﲢﻀﻴــﺮ ﺍﻟﺸـﺎﻱ‬ ‫ﺻﻨﻴـــﺔ ﺗﻘــﺪﻳــﻢ‬ ‫ﻃﺎﻭﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻛـﺮﺍﺳـﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﻄـﻴـــﺔ ﺍﳌـﻮﺍﺋــﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻨـﺎﺩﻳـــــﻞ‬ ‫ﲡﻬﻴــﺰﺍﺕ ﺗﺒــﺮﻳـــﺪ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔ‬

‫ﺮﻋ‬

‫ﺎﻡ ‪ -‬ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﳌﻴ‬

‫ﳎﻔـــﻒ‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺮﻋ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪2,5‬‬

‫‪12,5‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪77,5‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬

‫ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪65‬‬

‫‪65‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪145‬‬

‫‪145‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪45‬‬

‫‪45‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪90‬‬

‫‪90‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪85‬‬

‫‪85‬‬

‫‪442‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬

‫ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪4,5‬‬

‫‪4,5‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪6,5‬‬

‫‪65‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪3,5‬‬

‫‪140‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪0,6‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪0,3‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪328,5‬‬

‫ﺎﻩ‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫‪6,5‬‬

‫‪26‬‬ ‫‪26‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫ﺗـــﺎﺑــــﻊ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻄﻌ‬

‫ﻢ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﻃـﺎﻭﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺍﺳـــﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﻄﻴـــﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﻄﻴـــﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺋــﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻜﺘـﺐ ﺍﳋﺪﻣـﺔ‬ ‫ﺻﻨـﺪﻭﻕ ﻣﺴﺠـﻞ‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪120‬‬

‫‪50‬‬

‫‪3,5‬‬

‫‪175‬‬

‫‪50‬‬

‫‪1,6‬‬

‫‪80‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪0,8‬‬

‫‪9,6‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪75‬‬

‫‪75‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺮﻋ‬

‫‪474,6‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻄﺒ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﻓـﺮﻥ ﺑﺄﺭﺑﻊ ﻧﻴـﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺻﻔﻴﺤــﺔ ﺍﻟﻔـﺮﻥ‬ ‫ﺁﻟــﺔ ﻗﻠــﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻄـﺎﻃﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻥ ﻟﻠﺸــﻮﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﻗﺪﺭ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺿﺒﻂ ﺣﺮﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﻗﺪﺭ ﺇﻧﻀـﺎﺝ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻤﻴـــﻢ‬ ‫ﲪـﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﻳــﻢ ﻹﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺮﻕ‬ ‫ﻃﺎﻭﻟــﺔ ﻋﻤـﻞ‬ ‫ﻃﺎﻭﻟــﺔ ﻗﻄـﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﺛـــﺎﺙ ﺣﻔﻆ ﺍﳌﺄﻛﻮﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺧﺰﺍﻧــــﺔ ﺣﻔـﻆ ﺍﻟﺜﻴــﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻇﻬـﺮﻳـــــﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﻭﺍﱐ ﺍﳌﻄﺒـــﺦ‬ ‫ﻭﻋﺎﺀ ﻏﺴــﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﺍﱐ‬ ‫ﻭﺿــﻢ ﺟﺰﺍﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻁ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺑـــﺔ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺸـــﺮ‬ ‫ﻏﺴـــﺎﻟـﺔ ﺃﻭﺍﱐ‬ ‫ﺧﺰﺍﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺭﻓــﻮﻑ ﻣﺘﺤـﺮﻛــﺔ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪126‬‬

‫‪126‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪110‬‬

‫‪110‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪96‬‬

‫‪96‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪120‬‬

‫‪120‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪160‬‬

‫‪160‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪198‬‬

‫‪198‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪96‬‬

‫‪96‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪35‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪90‬‬

‫‪90‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪50‬‬

‫‪50‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪120‬‬

‫‪120‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪75‬‬

‫‪75‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪16‬‬

‫‪16‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪11‬‬

‫‪11‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪65‬‬

‫‪65‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪120‬‬

‫‪120‬‬

‫‪1‬‬

‫‪95‬‬

‫‪95‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪1685‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫ﺗـــﺎﺑــــﻊ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻏﺮﻓ‬

‫ﺔ ﺑﺴ‬

‫ﺮﻳ‬

‫ﺮ ﻭﺍ ﺪ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﺳــﺮ ﺓ‬ ‫ﻃﺎﻭﻟــﺔ ﺧﺎﺻـﺔ ﺑﻐﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﻃـﺎﻭﻟـــﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﻳﻜــﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺰﺍﻧــــﺔ ﻟﻠﺜﻴـــﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺳﺠـﺎﺩ ﻟﻠﺴــﺮﻳـــﺮ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺗﻠﻔــﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﻄﻴـــﺔ ‪ /‬ﺑﻄـﺎﻧﻴــﺎﺕ ‪ /‬ﻓـﻮﻁ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺮﻋ‬ ‫ﻏ ﺮﻑ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮﻳ‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪20‬‬

‫‪800‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪3,5‬‬

‫‪140‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪4,5‬‬

‫‪180‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪1,2‬‬

‫‪48‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪400‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪1000‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪1,2‬‬

‫‪48‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪45‬‬

‫‪1800‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪4464‬‬

‫ﻦ‬

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‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﺍﻵﺳــﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﻃـﺎﻭﻟــﺔ ﺧﺎﺻـﺔ ﺑﻐﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﻃﺎﻭﻟـــﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺳـــﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﻳﻜــﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺰﺍﻧـــﺔ ﻟﻠﺜﻴــﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺳﺠـﺎﺩ ﻟﻠﺴـﺮﻳــﺮ‬ ‫ﺟﻬـﺎﺯ ﺗﻠﻔـﺰﻳـﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﻄﻴـــﺔ ‪ /‬ﺑﻄـﺎﻧﻴــﺎﺕ ‪ /‬ﻓﻮﻁ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫‪64‬‬

‫‪20‬‬

‫‪1280‬‬

‫‪64‬‬

‫‪3,5‬‬

‫‪224‬‬

‫‪64‬‬

‫‪4,5‬‬

‫‪288‬‬

‫‪64‬‬

‫‪1,2‬‬

‫‪76,8‬‬

‫‪64‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪640‬‬

‫‪64‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪1600‬‬

‫‪64‬‬

‫‪1,2‬‬

‫‪76,8‬‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪45‬‬

‫‪1440‬‬

‫‪48‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪57, 6‬‬ ‫‪5683,2‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫ﺗــــﺎﺑــــﻊ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺤ‬

‫ﺔ‬

‫‪8‬ﺭﺯﻡ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﻵﺳــﺮ ﺓ‬ ‫ﻃﺎﻭﻟــﺔ ﺧﺎﺻـﺔ ﺑﻐﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﻃـﺎﻭﻟـــﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﻳﻜــﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﺰﺍﻧــــﺔ ﻟﻠﺜﻴـــﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺳﺠـﺎﺩ ﻟﻠﺴــﺮﻳـــﺮ‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺟﻬﺎﺯ ﺗﻠﻔــﺎﺯ‬ ‫ﺃﻏﻄﻴـــﺔ ‪ /‬ﺑﻄـﺎﻧﻴــﺎﺕ ‪ /‬ﻓـﻮﻁ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﻳﻜــــﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻜﺘﺒــــﺔ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺮﻋ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺟ‬

‫ﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ‬ ‫" ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺩ "‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴﻴ‬

‫‪1360‬‬

‫ﻦ‬

‫‪5,5‬‬

‫‪176‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪40‬‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪2,8‬‬

‫‪89,6‬‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪480‬‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪48‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪65‬‬

‫‪520‬‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪128‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪80‬‬

‫‪640‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪32‬‬

‫‪256‬‬

‫‪8‬‬

‫‪65‬‬

‫‪520‬‬ ‫‪4257,6‬‬ ‫‪19397,9‬‬

‫ﻢ ‪ : 16‬ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻳ‬ ‫)ﺍﻟ ﻮ ﺪ ﺑ ﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴ‬

‫ﻤ‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﺻـــﺎﺑﻮﻥ – ﴰﺒــﻮﺍﻥ‬

‫‪1 191,4‬‬

‫ﺃﻏﻄﻴــﺔ ‪ /‬ﺑﻄـﺎﻧﻴـﺎﺕ ‪ /‬ﻓﻮﻁ‬

‫‪15 884,8‬‬

‫ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﺼﻠـﺔ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﻳــﻢ ﺍﻟﻮﺟﺒﺎﺕ‬

‫‪4 408‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺳﻠــﻊ ﺍﶈﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺠـﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫‪2 487,6‬‬

‫ﻣﻐﺴــﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﻴـــﺎﺏ‬

‫‪1 389,9‬‬

‫ﻗﻄــﻊ ﺍﻟﻐـﻴـﺎﺭ‬

‫‪834,7‬‬

‫ﻣﻨﻈﻔـــﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻣﻄﻬﺮﺍﺕ‬

‫‪200‬‬

‫ﺯﻳــﻮﺕ ﻭ ﺷﺤﻮﻡ‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗـــﻮﺩ‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫ﻣﻜﺘـﺐ‬

‫‪250‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔ ﺮﻋ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘ ﻝ‬

‫‪26 681,3‬‬

‫ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ (‬

‫ﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺟ‬

‫ﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫‪ " :‬ﺍﳋ‬

‫ﺪﻣﺎﺕ "‬ ‫)ﺍﻟﻮ‬

‫ﻦ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴﻴ‬

‫ﺪ ﺑ ﻟ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ (‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴ‬

‫ﺔ‬

‫ﻤ‬

‫ﺍﻹﺷﻬــــﺎﺭ‬

‫‪600‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺼﻴــــﺎﻧـــﺔ‬

‫‪1252‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫‪1 852‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ " :18‬ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻳ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻴﲑ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ "‬

‫ﺟ‬

‫)ﺍﻟﻮ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴﻴ‬

‫ﻦ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴ‬

‫ﺪ ﺑ ﻟ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ (‬ ‫ﻤ‬

‫ﻣﺼــﺎﺭﻳــﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻘـــﻞ‬

‫‪250‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻜﻬـــﺮﺑـــﺎﺀ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ‬

‫‪450‬‬

‫ﺍﳌـﺎﺀ‬

‫‪100‬‬

‫ﺍﳍﺎﺗﻒ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﻛﺲ‬

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‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺗﺄﻣﻴـــﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻬﻴــﺰﺍﺕ‬

‫‪1 917,2‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫‪5 217,2‬‬

‫ﺔ‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫) ﺍﻟﻮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ )ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺭﺳﻮﻡ (‬

‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ‬

‫ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ (‬

‫ﺪ ﺑ ﻟ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ ) ﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ (‬

‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬

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‫‪976,6‬‬

‫‪٤ ,8‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪190,5‬‬

‫‪,5‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫‪١ ٢٥,4‬‬ ‫‪٢‬‬ ‫‪,4‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﻣﺪﻧﻴﺔ‪ -‬ﺑﻨﺎﻳﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺭﺿﻴﺔ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﻣﺪﻧﻴﺔ ‪ -‬ﺑﻨﺎﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫‪١ ٤,6‬‬ ‫‪٥,2‬‬

‫‪٤‬‬

‫‪٥ ٤,8‬‬

‫‪,2‬‬

‫‪١ ٤,8‬‬

‫‪٢٣ ٤,8‬‬

‫‪٤ ٤‬‬

‫‪٢٥,2‬‬

‫‪٥٣‬‬ ‫‪,8‬‬

‫‪,6‬‬

‫ﺍﻟ ﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎﺕ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻴﻒ‬

‫‪٥ ١‬‬

‫‪٢ ٤‬‬

‫‪١ ٥‬‬

‫ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﳌﻜﺎﻓﺤﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺋﻖ‬

‫‪٢٣ ,1‬‬

‫‪١١,9‬‬

‫‪٢٥‬‬

‫ﺻﻬﺮﻳﺞ ﻣﻴﺎﻩ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‬

‫‪,1‬‬

‫‪٤‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺨﲔ‬

‫‪١,9‬‬

‫‪٣ ,1‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﻫﺎﺗﻔﻲ‬

‫‪٣ ١,4‬‬

‫‪١ ,6‬‬

‫ﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ‬

‫‪,5‬‬

‫‪٤ ,5‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‬

‫‪١,9‬‬

‫‪٣,1‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ‬

‫‪١١٤٢,9‬‬

‫‪٥ ,1‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫‪,6‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٣‬‬

‫‪١٢‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘ ﻬﻴ ﺍﺕ‬

‫ﳐﺰﻥ‬

‫‪٤,8‬‬

‫‪٣,2‬‬

‫ﻭﺭﺷﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻧﺔ‬

‫‪١ ,6‬‬

‫‪٥,4‬‬

‫‪١١٣‬‬

‫ﻣﻐﺴﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﻴﺎﺏ‬

‫‪٣ ٤,8‬‬

‫‪١ ,2‬‬

‫‪٤ ٤‬‬

‫ﺣﺎﻧﺔ‬

‫‪٥٣٤,3‬‬

‫‪٢ ,7‬‬

‫‪٥ ١‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ‬

‫‪٣٣٥,8‬‬

‫‪١ ,8‬‬

‫‪٣٥٢,6‬‬

‫ﻛﺸﻚ‬

‫‪٣ ,6‬‬

‫‪١,9‬‬

‫‪٤ ,5‬‬

‫ﻣﻘﻬﻰ‬

‫‪٣ ٥,6‬‬

‫‪١ ,3‬‬

‫‪٣ ٣,9‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻭﺩﻳﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻼﺑﺲ‬

‫‪٣٤,8‬‬

‫‪١,7‬‬

‫‪٣ ,5‬‬

‫ﳏﻞ ﲡﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫‪٣,8‬‬

‫‪٣,7‬‬

‫‪,5‬‬

‫ﺻﺎﻟﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ‬

‫‪٤٢١‬‬

‫‪٢١‬‬

‫‪٤٤٢‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﻓﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺒﺎﺡ‬

‫‪٣١٢,9‬‬

‫‪١٥,6‬‬

‫‪٣٢ ,5‬‬

‫ﲪﺎﻡ ‪ -‬ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ‬

‫‪٢٤,8‬‬

‫‪١,2‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫ﻣﻄﻌﻢ‬

‫‪٤٥٢‬‬

‫‪٢٢,6‬‬

‫‪٤ ٤,6‬‬

‫ﻣﻄﺒﺦ‬

‫‪١ ٤,8‬‬

‫‪,2‬‬

‫‪١ ٥‬‬

‫ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬

‫‪٤٢٥١,4‬‬

‫‪٢١٢,6‬‬

‫‪٤٤ ٤‬‬

‫ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮﻳﻦ‬

‫‪٥٤١٢,6‬‬

‫‪٢ ,6‬‬

‫‪٥ ٣,2‬‬

‫ﻣﻠﺤﻘﺔ‬

‫‪٤ ٥٤,9‬‬

‫‪٢ ٢,7‬‬

‫‪٤٢٥ ,6‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬

‫‪,2‬‬ ‫‪٥٥ ,4‬‬

‫ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﻭ ﺭﺳﻮﻡ‬

‫‪,5‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫‪٢٢,6‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬

‫‪,9‬‬ ‫‪٣‬‬

‫‪٢ ,8‬‬ ‫‪,5‬‬

‫‪٥ ٤,3‬‬ ‫‪٣‬‬ ‫‪٢٢,6‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺟ ﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ ﻢ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺍﳌﺼ ﺎﺭﻳ ﺍﳌ ﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫" ﺍﻟﺘﻤ ﻮﻳﻞ "‬

‫) ﺍﻟ ﻮ ﺪ ﺑ ﻟ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴ‬

‫ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ (‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺌﻮﻳﺔ ) ‪( %‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳋﺎ ﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮﻱ )ﺩﺝ (‬

‫‪% ,‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬

‫‪% ,‬‬

‫ﺃﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﻭﻣﺒﺎﱐ‬

‫‪% ,‬‬ ‫‪% ,‬‬

‫ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳋﺎ ﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻗﺮﻭﺽ ﻗﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‬

‫‪% ,‬‬

‫ﻗﺮﻭﺽ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‬

‫‪%١ ,‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫ﻗﺮﻭﺽ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‬

‫‪% ,‬‬

‫ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ‬

‫‪,‬‬

‫‪%‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬

‫‪,‬‬

‫‪%‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻀﻤﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬

‫‪٤‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ ﻢ‬

‫‪%١ ,‬‬

‫‪ :‬ﺩﻳ ﻮﻥ ﻣﺘ ﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺪﻯ‬

‫ﻔ ﺔ‬ ‫)ﺍﻟ ﻮ ﺪ ﺑ ﻟ‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺼ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺛﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭﺽ‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫ﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺪﻳﺪ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺛﻲ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻉ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٣‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪١١‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪١٢‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪٣‬‬

‫‪١‬‬ ‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪٤‬‬

‫ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ (‬

‫‪٥ ٥,825‬‬

‫‪٢ ٥٤,175-‬‬

‫‪٤,2-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪٢ ٣ ,244‬‬

‫‪٢ ٥,581-‬‬

‫‪٤٢,794-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫‪٣‬‬

‫‪٣٣,096‬‬

‫‪,148-‬‬

‫‪٤‬‬

‫‪١٤,219‬‬

‫‪٢ ١ ,877-‬‬

‫‪٥ ,498-‬‬

‫‪٤ ٣,451‬‬

‫‪٢ ٤ ,768-‬‬

‫‪٥ ,607-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١١١ ,627‬‬

‫‪٢ ٢,824-‬‬

‫‪٥٥٥,551-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١٢٥,852‬‬

‫‪٢ ٥,045-‬‬

‫‪٥٣٣,330-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪٣‬‬

‫‪٥١ ,942-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪٣ ٢ ,989-‬‬

‫‪٤ ,386-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫‪٥ ٣٥,447‬‬

‫‪٣ ٥٢,714-‬‬

‫‪٤ ٥,661-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١١‬‬

‫‪٥٥ ٥ ,838‬‬

‫‪٣ ٥,609-‬‬

‫‪٤٤٢,766-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١٢‬‬

‫‪٥٢ ١,162‬‬

‫‪,676-‬‬

‫‪٣‬‬

‫‪٤١ ,699-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١٣‬‬

‫‪٤ ٣ ,246‬‬

‫‪٣١٢١,916-‬‬

‫‪٣ ,459-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١٤‬‬

‫‪٤ ٥ ٣,916‬‬

‫‪٣١٤٥,330-‬‬

‫‪٣ ٣,044-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١٥‬‬

‫‪٤٣٤٢٤,995‬‬

‫‪٣١ ,920-‬‬

‫‪٣٤ ,454-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫‪٤ ٢٣٢,308‬‬

‫‪٣١ ٢,687-‬‬

‫‪٣٢٥,687-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫‪٣ ١٥,676‬‬

‫‪٣٢١ ,632-‬‬

‫‪٣ ١,742-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫‪٣٣ ٤,918‬‬

‫‪٣٢٤ ,757-‬‬

‫‪٢ ,618-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫‪٣ ٥ ,856‬‬

‫‪٣٢ ٥,063-‬‬

‫‪٢٥٣,312-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪٢ ٢٢ ,305‬‬

‫‪٣٢ ,551-‬‬

‫‪٢٢ ,824-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪٢١‬‬

‫‪,082‬‬

‫‪٢٣‬‬

‫‪٣٣١٤,222-‬‬

‫‪٢ ٤,152-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪٢٢‬‬

‫‪٢ ٥ ,003‬‬

‫‪٣٣٣ ,079-‬‬

‫‪١ ,296-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪٢٣‬‬

‫‪١ ٢ ٢,881‬‬

‫‪٣٣ ٤,122-‬‬

‫‪١٥٤,253-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪٢٤‬‬

‫‪١٣ ١٣,528‬‬

‫‪٣٣ ,353-‬‬

‫‪١٢ ,022-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪١ ٣ ,754‬‬

‫‪٣٤١٤,773-‬‬

‫‪١ ٣,601-‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪٥ ,370‬‬

‫‪٣٤٤ ,384-‬‬

‫‪,991-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪٣٤ ٢,183‬‬

‫‪٣٤ ,187-‬‬

‫‪٥٢,188-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪٣٤ ٢,183-‬‬

‫‪٢ ,191-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٥١١ ,149‬‬ ‫‪,161‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫‪٢٥‬‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫‪,433-‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ‬

‫‪-‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪٢١,227-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375‬‬‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪,060-‬‬

‫‪٣٥١ ,375-‬‬

‫‪,897-‬‬

‫‪١١٥٤٥,780-‬‬

‫‪,070-‬‬

‫‪١١‬‬

‫‪١٢٢٥ ,987-‬‬

‫‪١٢ ٢ ,854-‬‬

‫‪١٣ ١٢,003-‬‬

‫‪١٣٤ ,777-‬‬

‫‪,528-‬‬

‫ﻳﺒﲔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺁﺟﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻓﺼﻠﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﻓﺘﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟـﱵ‬ ‫ﻳﺴﺘﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﺴﺪﻳﺪﻫﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺟ ﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ ﻢ‬

‫ﺎﺕ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺍﻻﻫﺘ‬

‫) ﺍﻟﻮ ﺪ ﺑ ﻻﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﺭﺍﺕ (‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺮ )ﻙ‪.‬ﺭ(‬

‫‪%‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ‬

‫ﺍﻹﻫﺘ‬

‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪1025,4‬‬

‫‪٢٥‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪٢٥‬‬

‫‪256,35‬‬ ‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪256,35‬‬

‫‪256,35‬‬

‫‪50‬‬

‫‪50‬‬

‫‪1025,4‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﻣﺪﻧﻴﺔ‪-‬ﺑﻨﺎﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﻣﺪﻧﻴﺔ‪-‬ﺑﻨﺎﻳﺎﺕ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺟﺪﺍﺭ ﺳﻴﺎﺝ‬

‫‪٤ ٤‬‬ ‫‪٥٣‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٢٤٢‬‬

‫‪2420‬‬

‫‪2420‬‬

‫‪2420‬‬

‫‪2420‬‬

‫‪2420‬‬

‫‪2420‬‬

‫‪٢٤٢‬‬

‫‪٢٤٢‬‬

‫‪٢٤٢‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٢ ,5‬‬

‫‪26,5‬‬

‫‪26,5‬‬

‫‪26,5‬‬

‫‪26,5‬‬

‫‪26,5‬‬

‫‪26,5‬‬

‫‪26,5‬‬

‫‪26,5‬‬

‫‪26,5‬‬

‫‪26,5‬‬

‫ﺍﻟ ﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎﺕ‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻴﻒ‬

‫‪6298,5‬‬

‫‪١٢‬‬

‫‪755,82‬‬

‫‪755,82‬‬

‫‪755,82‬‬

‫‪755,82‬‬

‫‪755,82‬‬

‫‪755,82‬‬

‫‪755,82‬‬

‫ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﳌﻜﺎﻓﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺋﻖ‬

‫‪٢٥٥‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺻﻬﺮﻳﺞ ﻣﻴﺎﻩ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ ‪86,7‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺨﲔ‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫ﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‬

‫‪66,3‬‬

‫‪251,94 251,94‬‬

‫‪6298,5‬‬

‫‪١٢‬‬

‫‪30,6‬‬

‫‪30,6‬‬

‫‪30,6‬‬

‫‪30,6‬‬

‫‪30,6‬‬

‫‪30,6‬‬

‫‪30,6‬‬

‫‪10,2‬‬

‫‪10,2‬‬

‫‪255‬‬

‫‪١٢‬‬

‫‪10,404‬‬

‫‪10,404‬‬

‫‪10,404‬‬

‫‪10,404‬‬

‫‪10,404‬‬

‫‪10,404‬‬

‫‪10,404‬‬

‫‪3,468‬‬

‫‪3,468‬‬

‫‪86,7‬‬

‫‪١٢‬‬

‫‪97,92‬‬

‫‪97,92‬‬

‫‪97,92‬‬

‫‪97,92‬‬

‫‪97,92‬‬

‫‪97,92‬‬

‫‪97,92‬‬

‫‪32,64‬‬

‫‪32,64‬‬

‫‪816‬‬

‫‪١٢‬‬

‫‪104,04‬‬

‫‪104,04‬‬

‫‪104,04‬‬

‫‪104,04‬‬

‫‪104,04‬‬

‫‪104,04‬‬

‫‪104,04‬‬

‫‪34,68‬‬

‫‪34,68‬‬

‫‪867‬‬

‫‪١٢‬‬

‫‪7,956‬‬

‫‪7,956‬‬

‫‪7,956‬‬

‫‪7,956‬‬

‫‪7,956‬‬

‫‪7,956‬‬

‫‪7,956‬‬

‫‪2,652‬‬

‫‪2,652‬‬

‫‪663‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘ ﻬﻴ ﺍﺕ‬

‫ﳐﺰﻥ‬

‫‪69,36‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪13,872‬‬

‫‪13,872‬‬

‫‪13,872‬‬

‫‪13,872‬‬

‫‪13,872‬‬

‫‪69,36‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻭﺭﺷﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻧﺔ‬

‫‪115,26‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪23,052‬‬

‫‪23,052‬‬

‫‪23,052‬‬

‫‪23,052‬‬

‫‪23,052‬‬

‫‪115,26‬‬

‫ﻣﻐﺴﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﻴﺎﺏ‬

‫‪412,08‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪82,416‬‬

‫‪82,416‬‬

‫‪82,416‬‬

‫‪82,416‬‬

‫‪82,416‬‬

‫‪412,08‬‬

‫ﺣﺎﻧﺔ‬

‫‪572,22‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪114,444‬‬

‫‪114,444‬‬

‫‪114,45‬‬

‫‪114,444‬‬

‫‪114,444‬‬

‫‪572,22‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ‬

‫‪359,652‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪71,93‬‬

‫‪71,93‬‬

‫‪71,93‬‬

‫‪71,93‬‬

‫‪71,930‬‬

‫‪359,66‬‬

‫ﻛﺸﻚ‬

‫‪41,31‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪8,262‬‬

‫‪8,262‬‬

‫‪8,262‬‬

‫‪8,262‬‬

‫‪8,262‬‬

‫‪41,31‬‬

‫ﻣﻘﻬﻰ‬

‫‪391,578‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪78,316‬‬

‫‪78,316‬‬

‫‪78,316‬‬

‫‪78,316‬‬

‫‪78,316‬‬

‫‪391,578‬‬

‫ﻭﺩﻳﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻼﺑﺲ‬

‫‪37,23‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪7,446‬‬

‫‪7,446‬‬

‫‪7,446‬‬

‫‪7,446‬‬

‫‪7,446‬‬

‫‪37,23‬‬

‫ﳏﻞ ﲡﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫‪79,05‬‬

‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪15,81‬‬

‫‪15,81‬‬

‫‪15,81‬‬

‫‪15,81‬‬

‫‪15,81‬‬

‫‪79,05‬‬

‫‪4222,8‬‬

‫‪4222,8‬‬

‫‪4222,8‬‬

‫‪3916,5‬‬

‫‪3916,5‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ‬

‫‪61020,5‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫) ‪.‬ﺭ ( ‪ :‬ﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ‬

‫‪3501‬‬

‫‪3501‬‬

‫‪2798‬‬

‫‪2798‬‬

‫‪2446,5‬‬

‫‪36555,45‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺟ ﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ ﻢ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺴ‬

‫ﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘ‬

‫ﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳ ﺮﻱ‬ ‫) ﺍﻟﻮ‬

‫ﺪ ﺑ‬

‫ﻻﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻳ ﻨﺎﺭﺍﺕ (‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺭﻗﻢ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ‬

‫‪64896,2‬‬

‫‪65675‬‬

‫‪66463‬‬

‫‪67260,6‬‬

‫‪68067,7‬‬

‫‪68884,5‬‬

‫‪69711,1‬‬

‫‪70547,7‬‬

‫‪71394,3‬‬

‫‪72251‬‬

‫ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﻭﻟﻮﺍﺯﻡ‬

‫‪26681,4‬‬

‫‪26948,2‬‬

‫‪27217,7‬‬

‫‪27489,8‬‬

‫‪27764,7‬‬

‫‪28042,3‬‬

‫‪28322,8‬‬

‫‪28606‬‬

‫‪28892,1‬‬

‫‪29181‬‬

‫ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‬

‫‪1852‬‬

‫‪1870,5‬‬

‫‪1889,2‬‬

‫‪1908,1‬‬

‫‪1927,2‬‬

‫‪1946,5‬‬

‫‪1965,9‬‬

‫‪1985,6‬‬

‫‪2005,4‬‬

‫‪2025,5‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬

‫‪36362,9‬‬

‫‪36856,3‬‬

‫‪37356,2‬‬

‫‪37862,7‬‬

‫‪38375,9‬‬

‫‪38895,7‬‬

‫‪39422,5‬‬

‫‪39956,1‬‬

‫‪40496,8‬‬

‫‪41044,5‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻼﻙ‬

‫‪9360‬‬

‫‪9406,8‬‬

‫‪9453,9‬‬

‫‪9501,1‬‬

‫‪9548,6‬‬

‫‪9596,4‬‬

‫‪9644,3‬‬

‫‪9692,6‬‬

‫‪9741‬‬

‫‪9789,7‬‬

‫ﺿﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻭﺭﺳﻮﻡ‬

‫‪655,2‬‬

‫‪658,5‬‬

‫‪661,8‬‬

‫‪665,1‬‬

‫‪6904,2‬‬

‫‪6980,9‬‬

‫‪7058,4‬‬

‫‪7137‬‬

‫‪7216,50‬‬

‫‪7296,9‬‬

‫ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ‬

‫‪5217,3‬‬

‫‪5269,4‬‬

‫‪5322,1‬‬

‫‪5375,3‬‬

‫‪5429,1‬‬

‫‪5483,4‬‬

‫‪5538,2‬‬

‫‪5593,6‬‬

‫‪5649,5‬‬

‫‪5706‬‬

‫ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪2656,8‬‬

‫‪2656,8‬‬

‫‪2656,8‬‬

‫‪2527,7‬‬

‫‪2177,4‬‬

‫‪1816,5‬‬

‫‪1444,6‬‬

‫‪1061,5‬‬

‫‪666,7‬‬

‫‪260‬‬

‫ﺍﻫﺘﻼﻛﺎﺕ‬

‫‪4222,9‬‬

‫‪4222,9‬‬

‫‪4222,9‬‬

‫‪4222,9‬‬

‫‪3916,5‬‬

‫‪3501‬‬

‫‪3501‬‬

‫‪3500,5‬‬

‫‪2798‬‬

‫‪2446,5‬‬

‫ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ‬

‫‪22112,1‬‬

‫‪22214,4‬‬

‫‪22317,4‬‬

‫‪22292,1‬‬

‫‪27975,8‬‬

‫‪27378,1‬‬

‫‪27186,6‬‬

‫‪26985,6‬‬

‫‪26071,7‬‬

‫‪25499,1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ‬

‫‪14250,8‬‬

‫‪14642‬‬

‫‪15038,9‬‬

‫‪15570,6‬‬

‫‪10400‬‬

‫‪11517,7‬‬

‫‪12235,9‬‬

‫‪12970,5‬‬

‫‪14425,1‬‬

‫‪15545,4‬‬

‫ﺿﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻮﺍﺋـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎﺕ ‪% ٤‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪4004‬‬

‫‪4434,3‬‬

‫‪4710,8‬‬

‫‪4993,7‬‬

‫‪5553,7‬‬

‫‪5985‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫‪14250,8‬‬

‫‪14642‬‬

‫‪15038,9‬‬

‫‪15570,6‬‬

‫‪6396‬‬

‫‪7083,4‬‬

‫‪7525,1‬‬

‫‪7976,9‬‬

‫‪8871,4‬‬

‫‪9560,4‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ‬

‫‪18473,7‬‬

‫‪18864,8‬‬

‫‪19261,7‬‬

‫‪19793,5‬‬

‫‪10312,5‬‬

‫‪10584,4‬‬

‫‪11026‬‬

‫‪11477,9‬‬

‫‪11669,4‬‬

‫‪12006,9‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ‬

‫‪ %‬ﻣﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺘﺎﺡ ﻟﺘﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﻣﻲ ﻟﺘﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ‬

‫‪ %‬ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ ١‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺟ ﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ ﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜ‬

‫ﺘﻘﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﻓ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺟ ﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺤ‬

‫ﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴ ﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﻭ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴ‬

‫ﻊ‬

‫) ﺍﻟﻮ ﺪ ﺑ ﻻﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﺭﺍﺕ (‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪٢‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪٣‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪٤‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪٥‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪١١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺮ ‪١٢‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ‬

‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﻫﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬

‫‪102,5‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪200‬‬

‫‪102,5‬‬ ‫‪٢‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﻣﺪﻧﻴﺔ‪ -‬ﺑﻨﺎﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺿﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻫﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﻣﺪﻧﻴﺔ‪ -‬ﺑﻨﺎﻳﺎﺕ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺟﺪﺍﺭ ﺳﻴﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﺍﻟ ﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﳌﻜﺎﻓﺤﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺋﻖ‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺻﻬﺮﻳﺞ ﻣﻴﺎﻩ ﻣﻀﻐﻮﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺨﲔ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﻫﺎﺗﻔﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﻛﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻬﺮﺑﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬

‫ﲢﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ‬

‫ﻭ‪.‬ﻭ‪.‬ﺕ‪.‬ﺃ ‪1684,8‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺨﻄﻄﺎﺕ‬

‫‪1684,8‬‬ ‫‪922,9‬‬

‫‪14520‬‬

‫‪15442,9‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬

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‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

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‫‪3461,3‬‬

‫‪591‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪1973,2‬‬

‫‪1211,3‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪14808,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪20891,5‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺟ ﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ ﻢ‬

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‫ﻘﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻓ‬

‫ﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺤ‬

‫ﻊ‬ ‫)ﺍﻟﻮ‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﺜ ﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴ ﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺜ ﺎﻧﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴ‬

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‫ﺪ ﺑ‬

‫ﻻﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨ ﺎﺭﺍﺕ (‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ‬

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‫‪85‬‬ ‫‪٤‬‬

‫‪800‬‬

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‫‪390‬‬

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‫‪850‬‬ ‫‪٥٢‬‬

‫‪65‬‬ ‫‪1200‬‬

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‫ﺳﻌﺮ)ﻙ‪.‬ﺭ(‬

‫ﳏﺰﻥ‬

‫‪27,2‬‬

‫‪40,8‬‬

‫ﻭﺭﺷﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﺎﻧﺔ‬

‫‪45,2‬‬

‫‪67,8‬‬

‫‪113‬‬

‫ﻣﻐﺴﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﻴﺎﺏ‬

‫‪162,6‬‬

‫‪242,4‬‬

‫‪٤ ٤‬‬

‫ﺣﺎﻧﺔ‬

‫‪224,4‬‬

‫‪336,6‬‬

‫‪٥ ١‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ‬

‫‪141‬‬

‫‪211,6‬‬

‫‪352,6‬‬

‫ﻛﺸﻚ‬

‫‪16,2‬‬

‫‪24,3‬‬

‫‪40,5‬‬

‫ﻣﻘﻬﻰ‬

‫‪153,6‬‬

‫‪230,3‬‬

‫‪383,9‬‬

‫ﻭﺩﻳﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻼﺑﺲ‬

‫‪14,6‬‬

‫‪21,9‬‬

‫‪36,5‬‬

‫ﳏﻞ ﲡﺎﺭﻱ‬

‫‪31‬‬

‫‪46,5‬‬

‫‪77,5‬‬

‫ﺻﺎﻟﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ‬

‫‪176,8‬‬

‫‪265,2‬‬

‫‪442‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﻋﺔ ﻓﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺒﺎﺡ‬

‫‪131,4‬‬

‫‪197,1‬‬

‫‪328,5‬‬

‫ﲪﺎﻡ‪-‬ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻴﺎﻩ‬

‫‪10,4‬‬

‫‪15,6‬‬

‫‪26‬‬

‫ﻣﻄﻌﻢ‬

‫‪189,8‬‬

‫‪284,8‬‬

‫‪474,6‬‬

‫ﻣﻄﺒﺦ‬

‫‪674‬‬

‫‪1011‬‬

‫‪1685‬‬

‫ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬

‫‪1785,6‬‬

‫‪2678,4‬‬

‫‪4464‬‬

‫ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺴﺮﻳﺮﻳﻦ‬

‫‪2273,3‬‬

‫‪3409,9‬‬

‫‪5683,2‬‬

‫ﻣﻠﺤﻘﺔ‬

‫‪1703‬‬

‫‪2554,6‬‬

‫‪4257,6‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬

‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪39,3‬‬

‫‪155,2‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪157‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪232,8‬‬

‫‪584,3‬‬

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‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪3461,3‬‬

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬

‫‪9968,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪10498,4‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪2290,7‬‬

‫‪8202,8‬‬

‫‪14808,4‬‬

‫‪8297,5‬‬

‫‪288,4‬‬

‫‪12160‬‬

‫‪67668,5‬‬

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‫ﻻﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨ ﺎﺭﺍﺕ (‬

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‫‪976,6‬‬

‫‪976,6‬‬

‫‪976,6‬‬

‫‪976,6‬‬

‫‪976,6‬‬

‫‪976,6‬‬

‫‪976,6‬‬

‫‪976,6‬‬

‫‪976,6‬‬

‫‪976,6‬‬

‫‪976,6‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪190,5‬‬

‫‪190,5‬‬

‫‪190,5‬‬

‫‪190,5‬‬

‫‪190,5‬‬

‫‪190,5‬‬

‫‪190,5‬‬

‫‪190,5‬‬

‫‪190,5‬‬

‫‪190,5‬‬

‫‪190,5‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‬

‫‪1604,6‬‬

‫‪1604,6‬‬

‫‪1604,6‬‬

‫‪1604,6‬‬

‫‪1604,6‬‬

‫‪1604,6‬‬

‫‪1604,6‬‬

‫‪1604,6‬‬

‫‪1604,6‬‬

‫‪1604,6‬‬

‫‪1604,6‬‬

‫ﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﻧﻴﺔ ‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﺎﻳﺎﺕ‬

‫‪46600‬‬

‫‪46600‬‬

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‫‪18474,2‬‬

‫‪18474,2‬‬

‫‪18474,2‬‬

‫‪18474,2‬‬

‫‪18474,2‬‬

‫‪18474,2‬‬

‫‪18474,2‬‬

‫‪18474,2‬‬

‫‪18474,2‬‬

‫‪18474,2‬‬

‫‪18474,2‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻠﺰﻣﺎﺕ‬

‫‪9347,6‬‬

‫‪9347,6‬‬

‫‪9347,6‬‬

‫‪9347,6‬‬

‫‪9347,6‬‬

‫‪9347,6‬‬

‫‪9347,6‬‬

‫‪9347,6‬‬

‫‪9347,6‬‬

‫‪9347,6‬‬

‫‪9347,6‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﻣﻴﻨﺎﺕ‬

‫‪556,4‬‬

‫‪556,4‬‬

‫‪556,4‬‬

‫‪556,4‬‬

‫‪556,4‬‬

‫‪556,4‬‬

‫‪556,4‬‬

‫‪556,4‬‬

‫‪556,4‬‬

‫‪556,4‬‬

‫‪556,4‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﻘﻮﻕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﺳﻮﻡ‬

‫‪3887,5‬‬

‫‪3887,5‬‬

‫‪3887,5‬‬

‫‪3887,5‬‬

‫‪3887,5‬‬

‫‪3887,5‬‬

‫‪3887,5‬‬

‫‪3887,5‬‬

‫‪3887,5‬‬

‫‪3887,5‬‬

‫‪3887,5‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﻫﺘﻼﻛﺎﺕ‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪4222,9‬‬

‫‪8445,7‬‬

‫‪12668,6‬‬

‫‪16891,5‬‬

‫‪20808‬‬

‫‪27309‬‬

‫‪27810‬‬

‫‪31310,9‬‬

‫‪34108,9‬‬

‫‪36555,4‬‬

‫ﳏﺠﻮﺯﺍﺕ ﺻﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫‪81637,4‬‬

‫‪77414,5‬‬

‫‪73191,6‬‬

‫‪68968,7‬‬

‫‪64745,9‬‬

‫‪60829,3‬‬

‫‪57328,4‬‬

‫‪53827,4‬‬

‫‪50326,4‬‬

‫‪47528,4‬‬

‫‪45081,9‬‬

‫ﺍﺣﺘﻴﺎﻁ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺃﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫ﺩﻳﻮﻥ‬

‫ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺟﺎﻫﺰﺓ‬

‫‪6922,6‬‬

‫‪25396,3‬‬

‫‪41406,9‬‬

‫‪49036,3‬‬

‫‪56844,5‬‬

‫‪54808‬‬

‫‪52668,8‬‬

‫‪50585,3‬‬

‫‪48555,8‬‬

‫‪49826,5‬‬

‫‪61833,4‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ‬

‫‪88560‬‬

‫‪114598,5‬‬

‫‪102810,‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬

‫‪118055‬‬

‫‪115637,‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫‪121590,‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬

‫‪109997,2‬‬

‫‪104412,7‬‬

‫‪98882,2‬‬

‫‪97354,9‬‬

‫‪106915,3‬‬

‫ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳉﺎﻫﺰﺓ ﺗﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻣﻦ ‪6922,6‬ﺩﺝ ﺳﻨﺔ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺘﺎﺡ ﺇﱃ ‪61833,4‬ﺩﺝ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺷﺮﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻬﺑﺬﺍ ﻓﻬﻲ ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﻭﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺎﰲ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳉﺎﺭﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺗﺴﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ‪.‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺟ ﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ ﻢ‬

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‫ﺍﳋﺼ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺍﳌﻴ‬

‫ﺍﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺘ‬

‫ﺎ ﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘ‬

‫ﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ‬

‫ﻮﻡ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴ‬

‫)ﺍﻟﻮ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺘﺎ ﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺪ ﺑ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﻻﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨ ﺎﺭﺍﺕ (‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳋﺎ ﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟـ ﺩﺝ‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺎﺕ ﻋﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺭﺍﺿﻲ‬

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‫‪14250,8‬‬

‫‪28892,7‬‬

‫‪43931,6‬‬

‫‪59502,2‬‬

‫‪65898,2‬‬

‫‪72981,5‬‬

‫‪80506,6‬‬

‫‪88483,5‬‬

‫‪97354,9‬‬

‫ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ‬

‫‪14250,8‬‬

‫‪28892,7‬‬

‫‪43931,6‬‬

‫‪59502,2‬‬

‫‪65898,2‬‬

‫‪72981,5‬‬

‫‪80506,6‬‬

‫‪88483,5‬‬

‫‪97354,9‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﻳ‬

‫ﻮﻥ‬

‫ﺩﻳﻮﻥ ﻗﺼﲑﺓ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﻮﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫ﺩﻳﻮﻥ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴ ﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪85705,8‬‬

‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬ ‫‪14250,8‬‬

‫‪74073,5‬‬

‫‪62088,2‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪0‬‬

‫‪49739,2‬‬

‫‪37015,7‬‬

‫‪٢٣‬‬

‫‪10398,8‬‬

‫‪88560‬‬

‫‪85705,8‬‬

‫‪74073,5‬‬

‫‪62088,2‬‬

‫‪49739,2‬‬

‫‪37015,7‬‬

‫‪23906‬‬

‫‪10398,8‬‬

‫‪14641,9‬‬

‫‪038,8١٥‬‬

‫‪15570,6‬‬

‫‪6396‬‬

‫‪7083,4‬‬

‫‪7525‬‬

‫‪7976,9‬‬

‫‪8871,4‬‬

‫‪9560,4‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ 115637,4

121590,3

118,005

114598,5

102810, 8

٥

‫ﺍ ﻤﻮﻉ‬

CERIST

109997,2

www.pnst.cerist.dz

104412, 7

depuis

98882,2

téléchargé

97359,9

Document

106915,3

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺟ ﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ ﻢ‬

‫‪ :‬ﻣ‬

‫ﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌ‬

‫ﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳ ﺔ‬ ‫)ﺍﻟﻮ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺪ ﺑ ﺃﻟ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺩﻳﻨ ﺎﺭ (‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‬

‫‪18473,6‬‬

‫‪18864,8‬‬

‫‪19261,7‬‬

‫‪19793,5‬‬

‫‪10312,5‬‬

‫‪10584,4‬‬

‫‪11026‬‬

‫‪11477,9‬‬

‫‪11669,4‬‬

‫‪12006,9‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺪﻳﺪﺍﺕ‬

‫‪18473,6‬‬

‫‪37338,5‬‬

‫‪56600,2‬‬

‫‪76393,7‬‬

‫‪86706,2‬‬

‫‪97290,5‬‬

‫‪108316,6‬‬

‫‪119794,4‬‬

‫‪131463,8‬‬

‫‪143470,8‬‬

‫‪527,7٢‬‬

‫‪2177,4‬‬

‫‪260‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﶈﺪﺙ ‪% ١‬‬

‫‪18473,6‬‬

‫‪37338,5‬‬

‫‪54072,5‬‬

‫‪74216,2‬‬

‫‪86446,2‬‬

‫‪97290,5‬‬

‫‪108316,6‬‬

‫‪119794,4‬‬

‫‪131463,8‬‬

‫‪143470,8‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﶈﺪﺙ‪6,5 %‬‬

‫‪17935,6‬‬

‫‪36250,9‬‬

‫‪52497,5‬‬

‫‪72054,6‬‬

‫‪83928,4‬‬

‫‪94456,8‬‬

‫‪105161,7‬‬

‫‪116305,3‬‬

‫‪127634,8‬‬

‫‪139292‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬

‫‪-35215,3‬‬

‫‪-17629,1‬‬

‫‪-8733,4‬‬

‫‪130,8‬‬

‫‪9096‬‬

‫‪18156,7‬‬

‫‪27100,4‬‬

‫‪36034,6‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻂ‬

‫‪-16,36‬‬

‫‪-12,76‬‬

‫‪-8,27‬‬

‫‪-5,65‬‬

‫‪-3,41‬‬

‫‪-1,14‬‬

‫‪1,24‬‬

‫‪3,67‬‬

‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻲ‬

‫‪-25,10%‬‬

‫‪8,43%‬‬

‫‪27,71%‬‬

‫‪38,04%‬‬

‫‪43,94 %‬‬

‫‪47,48 %‬‬

‫‪49,70 %‬‬

‫‪51,13 %‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﻳﺒﲔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ‪ ١‬ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﶈﻘﻘﺔ ﺇﳚﺎﺑﻴﺎ ﺍﻧﻄﻼﻗﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻐﻄﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﱪﺯ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻬﻤﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬

‫*ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺩﺍﺩ ‪) :‬ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫= ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ ‪ /‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ‬ ‫= ﺳﻨﺘﲔ ) ‪ ( ٢‬ﻭ ﺃﺷﻬﺮ ﻭ ﺃﻳﺎﻡ‬ ‫*ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻳﺔ ‪ -‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ‬ ‫= ‪ ، 246106,117 + = ٥ - 334666,117‬ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﻪ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﻬﻮ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻝ ﻃﺒﻘﺎ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫* ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﺼﺎﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺪﺋﻲ‬ ‫(‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫= ‪/ 334666,117‬‬

‫‪٥‬‬

‫= ‪١ < 3,77‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺮﺑﺢ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻛﻞ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﳓﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 2,77‬ﺩﺝ ) ‪. (1-3,77‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻮﻟﺔ ‪ :‬ﺭﺻﻴﺪ ﺍﳋﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ /‬ﺭﻗﻢ‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺘﺎ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬

‫‪28,47‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬

‫‪28,72‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬

‫‪28,98%‬‬

‫‪29,43%‬‬

‫‪15,15%‬‬

‫‪15,37%‬‬

‫‪15,82%‬‬

‫‪16,27%‬‬

‫‪16,35%‬‬

‫‪16,62%‬‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬

‫‪0,00 %‬‬

‫‪0,00%‬‬

‫< ‪١‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ‪:‬ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪﺓ ‪ /‬ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ) ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ‬

‫‪:‬ﺟ‬

‫ﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺴ‬

‫‪105,53%‬‬

‫‪53,89%‬‬

‫‪14,56%‬‬

‫‪11,90%‬‬

‫‪11,42%‬‬

‫‪10,93%‬‬

‫‪11,02%‬‬

‫‪10,80%‬‬

‫ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺔ ‪ -‬ﺩﻳﻮﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ ﻭﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﻯ (‬

‫ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﺍ ‪:‬ﺳﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ‪ /‬ﺭﻗﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ < ‪٣‬‬

‫ﺳﻴﻮﻟﺔ ﻧﻘﺪﻳﺔ ‪ /‬ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‪:‬ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﻤﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﻴﺰﺍﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬

‫‪28,47‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬

‫‪28,72‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬

‫‪20,86 0,00 %‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬ ‫‪%86,1 100 %‬‬

‫‪18,35‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬ ‫‪%87,2‬‬

‫‪28,98%‬‬

‫‪29,43%‬‬

‫‪15,15%‬‬

‫‪15,37%‬‬

‫‪15,82%‬‬

‫‪16,27%‬‬

‫‪16,35%‬‬

‫‪16,62%‬‬

‫‪16,81%‬‬

‫‪16,77%‬‬

‫‪8,48%‬‬

‫‪9,15%‬‬

‫‪10,02%‬‬

‫‪10,99%‬‬

‫‪11,80%‬‬

‫‪12,33%‬‬

‫‪87,26%‬‬

‫‪87,19%‬‬

‫‪94,47%‬‬

‫‪93,56%‬‬

‫‪92,79%‬‬

‫‪91,93%‬‬

‫‪90,89%‬‬

‫‪91,06%‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﻣ ﻣﺔ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﻹﳒﺎﺯﺍﺕ‪+‬ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺟﺎﻫﺰﺓ‪/‬‬

‫‪7,82 %‬‬

‫‪24,70‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬

‫‪36,13‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬

‫‪0,00 %‬‬

‫‪0,00%‬‬

‫‪16,63‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬

‫‪71,53‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬

‫‪71,28‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺎﻓﺔ ‪ /‬ﺭﻗﻢ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻜﻨﻨﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﻹﻫﺘﻼﻙ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬

‫ﺴﺪﻳﺪ ﻱ‪.‬ﻉ ‪:‬ﻣﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﳌﻼﻙ‪ /‬ﻕ‪.‬ﻡ > ‪٥‬‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬

‫‪56,03‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬ ‫‪14,42‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬ ‫‪6,51%‬‬

‫ﺍﳍﺸﺎ ﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﳌﺼﺎﺭﻳﻒ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬

‫‪4,09%‬‬

‫ﻣﺞ ﺍﳌﻴﺰﺍﻧﻴﺔ‬

‫‪< ١‬ﻥ <‪٥‬‬

‫ﻮﻳﻞ ﺫﺍ ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ‪ /‬ﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫> ‪١-‬‬

‫ﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘ ﻝ‪ :‬ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﺜﺒﺘـﺔ ﰲ ﻃـﻮﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻐﻼﻝ ‪ /‬ﺭﻗﻢ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ < ‪٣‬‬

‫‪41,55%‬‬ ‫‪39,01%‬‬ ‫‪71,02%‬‬

‫‪46,75%‬‬ ‫‪70,76%‬‬ ‫‪70,57%‬‬

‫‪47,40%‬‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬ ‫‪78,97%‬‬

‫‪47,88%‬‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬ ‫‪78,20%‬‬

‫‪48,45%‬‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬ ‫‪77,43%‬‬

‫‪49,10‬‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬ ‫‪76,65%‬‬

‫‪51,18%‬‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬ ‫‪75,88%‬‬

‫‪57,83%‬‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬ ‫‪75,10%‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫‪56,12‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬ ‫‪14,32‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬ ‫‪6,43%‬‬

‫‪56,21%‬‬

‫‪56,29%‬‬

‫‪56,38%‬‬

‫‪56,47%‬‬

‫‪56,55%‬‬

‫‪56,64%‬‬

‫‪56,72%‬‬

‫‪56,81%‬‬

‫‪14,22%‬‬

‫‪14,13%‬‬

‫‪14,03%‬‬

‫‪13,93%‬‬

‫‪13,83%‬‬

‫‪13,74%‬‬

‫‪13,64%‬‬

‫‪13,55%‬‬

‫‪6,35%‬‬

‫‪6,28%‬‬

‫‪5,75%‬‬

‫‪5,08%‬‬

‫‪5,02%‬‬

‫‪4,96%‬‬

‫‪3,92%‬‬

‫‪3,39%‬‬

‫‪4,05%‬‬

‫‪4,00%‬‬

‫‪3,76%‬‬

‫‪3,20%‬‬

‫‪2,64%‬‬

‫‪2,07%‬‬

‫‪1,50%‬‬

‫‪0,93%‬‬

‫‪0,36%‬‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﻀﺎﻓﺔ < ‪١٥‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻮﻥ ‪ /‬ﺭﻗﻢ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪/‬‬

‫ﻻﺷﻲﺀ‬

‫ﺭﻗﻢ ﺍﳌﺒﻴﻌﺎﺕ‬

‫‪136,46‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬ ‫‪21,96‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬

‫‪110,13% 128,95% 134,85‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬ ‫‪23,15% 22,63% 22,29‬‬ ‫‪%‬‬

‫‪91,22%‬‬

‫‪72,21%‬‬

‫‪53,10%‬‬

‫‪33,89%‬‬

‫‪14,57%‬‬

‫‪0,00%‬‬

‫‪15,28%‬‬

‫‪16,72%‬‬

‫‪17,55%‬‬

‫‪18,39%‬‬

‫‪20,20%‬‬

‫‪21,52%‬‬

‫‪Document‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻄـﺒﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺟ ﺪﻭﻝ ﺭﻗ ﻢ‬

‫‪ :‬ﺟ ﺪﻭﻝ ﻋﺘ ﺒﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳ ﺔ‬ ‫) ﺍﻟ ﻮ ﺪ ﺑ ﺃﻟ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻴ‬

‫ﺩﻳﻨ ﺎﺭ (‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬

‫‪18019,1‬‬

‫‪18019,2‬‬

‫‪18280,3‬‬

‫‪18412,6‬‬

‫‪18545,9‬‬

‫‪18680,2‬‬

‫‪18815,7‬‬

‫‪18952,3‬‬

‫‪19089,9‬‬

‫‪9228,7١‬‬

‫‪32626,3‬‬

‫‪32883,8‬‬

‫‪33143,9‬‬

‫‪33277,4‬‬

‫‪39121,9‬‬

‫‪38686,6‬‬

‫‪38659,6‬‬

‫‪38624,9‬‬

‫‪37879,3‬‬

‫‪37476,9‬‬

‫‪32269,8‬‬

‫‪32791,1‬‬

‫‪33319,2‬‬

‫‪33983,2‬‬

‫‪28945,9‬‬

‫‪30197,9‬‬

‫‪31051,6‬‬

‫‪31922,8‬‬

‫‪33515‬‬

‫‪34774,1‬‬

‫‪49,73 %‬‬

‫‪49,93 %‬‬

‫‪50,13 %‬‬

‫‪50,52 %‬‬

‫‪42,53 %‬‬

‫‪43,84 %‬‬

‫‪44,54 %‬‬

‫‪45,25 %‬‬

‫‪46,94 %‬‬

‫‪48,13 %‬‬

‫ﻋﺘ ﺒﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫‪36237,2‬‬

‫‪36349,7‬‬

‫‪36464,5‬‬

‫‪36442,7‬‬

‫‪43611,6‬‬

‫‪42611,5‬‬

‫‪42241,5‬‬

‫‪41883,5‬‬

‫‪40665,7‬‬

‫‪39951,9‬‬

‫ﻧﺴ ﺒﺔ ﻋﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﳌ ﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ‬

‫‪55,84 %‬‬

‫‪55,35 %‬‬

‫‪54,86 %‬‬

‫‪54,18 %‬‬

‫‪64,07 %‬‬

‫‪61,86 %‬‬

‫‪60,86 %‬‬

‫‪59,37 %‬‬

‫‪56,96 %‬‬

‫‪55,30 %‬‬

‫ﺃﻋﺒﺎ ﺎﺑﺘ‬

‫ﺔ‬

‫ﺃﻋﺒﺎ ﻣﺘ ﲑ‬ ‫ﺍﻹ‬

‫ﺎﱄ‬

‫ﺍﳍﺎﻣ‬

‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳍﺎﻣ‬

‫ﺍﻹ‬

‫ﺎﱄ‬

‫‪depuis‬‬

‫ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺩﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﳑﺘﺎﺯﺓ ﻭﻛﻞ ﻧﺴﺐ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻧﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺫﻭ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺮﺑﺢ ﺑﻘﺪﺭ ﻛﺒﲑ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺃﺧﲑﺍ ﻭﰲ ﻬﻧﺎﻳﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ‪ -‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ‪ -‬ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﻲ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻣﺮﲝﺔ ﻭﺫﺍﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴـﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺸـﺨﺺ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺮ‬ ‫)ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﻛﺎﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻟﻪ ﻣﺆﻫﻼﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺣﻴﺔ (‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺼﺪﺭ ﺧﻼﻕ ﻟﻠﺜﺮﻭﺓ ﻻﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﻐﻼﻟﻪ ﺃﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﺳـﺘﻐﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﺴﻄﲑ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺎﶈﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﻭﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮﻩ ﺑﺂﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﲟﻮﺍﻛﺒﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﻴﺎ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﲟﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪.‬‬

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CERIST

‫ﺍﳋـﺎﲤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌـــﺎﻣﺔ‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﻣﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻗﻮﻟﻪ ﰲ ﺧﺘﺎﻡ ﻋﺮﺿﻨﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺇ ﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻫﺪﻓﺎ ﻗﺎ ﻤﺎ ﺑﺬﺍ ﻪ ﺑﻞ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﺮ‬

‫ﻴﺪ‬

‫ﺎﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﺍ ﺧﺎ ﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺟﻬﺔ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ ( ﰲ ﺍ‬

‫ﺎﺫ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺃﺩﺍ ﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪ‬

‫ﺎ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ) ﺳﻮﺍ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮ ﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﻷﻣﺜﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺮ ﻴﺪ ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎ ﻭﺍﶈﺎﻓ ﺔ ﻋﻠ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔ ﺔ ﻭ ﻌ‬

‫ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺎ ﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﶈﺪﻭﺩﻳﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺸﺪﻳﺪ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﺍﻟ‬

‫ﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻌﺘﻤﺪ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ﻋﻠ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻮﻳﻞ ﺧﻄﻄﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻮﻳﺔ ﻭﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﰲ ﺃﻗﻄﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﻴﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﻬﻤﺔ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣـﻦ ﺃﺟـﻞ ﺗﺮﺷـﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﻭﺗﻌﻈﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻓﺤﺴﺐ‪ ،‬ﺑﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮﺓ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﺎ ﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺗﺄﻛﻴﺪﺍ ﻟﻠﻔﺮﺿﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﻨﺎﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﻄﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻤﻘﲔ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﻄﻌﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻠﺺ ﺇﱃ ﲨﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪ ،‬ﻧﺬﻛﺮﻫﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﺗﻌﱪ ﻛﻠﻤﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺪﻟﻮﻝ ﻟﻪ ﻋﻼﻗﺘﻪ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﻫﻮ ﳏﺮﻙ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻨﻤﻴـﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻓﻠﺬﻟﻚ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﳌﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﻫﻮ ﺑﻜﻞ ﺍﺧﺘﺼـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﳏﻮﺭ ﺍﳊﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻋﺚ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻣﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﻳﲔ ﺍﳉﺰﺋﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺇﻥ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﻣﺼﻄﻠﺢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻳﻘﻮﺩﻧﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﳋﻼﻳﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﳋﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺃﻱ ﳎﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﰒ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺠـﺎﺡ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴـﻖ‬ ‫ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﻲ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﺮﺍﺑﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻨﺎﺳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻬﺗﺪﻑ‬ ‫ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺪﻭﻯ ﺃﻭ ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺔ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪ ،‬ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺃﺭﻳﺪ ﳍﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ‪ ،‬ﻣـﻦ ﺧـﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻔﺼﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻗﻴﻖ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﻼﺀﻣﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻭﺃﻓﻀـﻠﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﻳﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ ﻟﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٥‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﻛﻮﻬﻧﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟـﱵ‬ ‫ﲢﺪﺩ ﻭﺗﻔﺼﻞ ﰲ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻣﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻣﺎ ﳚﻌﻠﻬﺎ ﺃﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺇﻥ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻣﺮ ﻳﻬﻢ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﺃﻣﺎ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ‬‫ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺤﻮﺫ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺑﻘﺪﺭ ﺃﻛﱪ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻋﺼﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ‬‫ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﰲ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻭﻝ ﻋﻨﻪ‪ ،‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﻣﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻠﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﻬﺑﺎ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺳﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻬﺗﺪﺩ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻼ‪.‬‬

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‫ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﰲ ﳎﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﻛﻔﺎﺀﺗﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴـﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﺗﺒﺪﺃ ﻓﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺗﺘﺠﺴﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺘﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺍﶈﺎﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳـﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺗﻌﺪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲟﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﺃﺭﺿﻴﺔ ﺻﻠﺒﺔ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺍﻧﻄﻼﻗﺘﻪ ﻛﻤـﺎ ﺃﻬﻧـﺎ‬‫ﺩﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻪ ﰲ ﻣﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻷﺧﻄﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻬﺗﺪﺩ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻩ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﶈﻠﻞ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺘﻮﰲ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﻬﻞ ﻟﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪﻯ ﺭﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-١١‬ﺇﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﻣﺪﻯ ﻣﺴـﺎﳘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﺇﱃ ﺭﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻭﲢﺴﲔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻌﻴﺸﺘﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -١٢‬ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺗﻌﲏ ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﻛﻜﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﺍﻟﺔ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﻗﺎﻟﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-١٣‬ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﺘـﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻏﲑ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲝﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈـﺮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﳒﺪﻩ ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺄﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻈﻞ )ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ (‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺬﺍ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﳋﺼﻢ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﱪ‬ ‫ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺟﻬﺔ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ‪ ،‬ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴـﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻳـﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ﺑﺘﺨﺼﻴﺼﻪ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻣﻌﲔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -١٤‬ﺇﳒﺎﺯ ﻭﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﺪﻯ ﻣﻜﺎﺗﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻴﻘﲔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺤﻤﻠﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻭﻥ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺸﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﲡﺎﻫﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻜﺎﺗﺐ ﳋﺼﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺑﺼﻔﺔ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻔﺎﺀ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺮﺗﻜﺰ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻋـﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺘﻬﻢ ﲟﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺑﻌﺪﻫﻢ ﻋﻨﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -١٥‬ﺇﻥ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺬﻣﺮ ﻭﺍﻹﺣﺒﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺼﻴﺐ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺇﺻـﺎﺑﺘﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﺄﻣﺮﺍﺽ ﻧﻔﺴﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻋﻀﻮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﻓﺸﻞ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻌﻬﻢ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﳕﺎ ﻣﺮﺩﻩ ﺇﱃ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ‪ -‬ﻫﺆﻻﺀ ﺍﳌﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻭﺻﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﻣﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺲ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﲤﻜﻨﻬﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﺷـﻴﺪ‬‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻧﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻌﻬﻢ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﺃﺩﺭﺟﻨﺎ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﰲ ﺧﺎﲤﺔ ﻋﺮﺿﻨﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺮﺍ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻜـﺒﲑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻠﻌﺒﻪ ﺍﳉﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﰲ ﳒﺎﺡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭﻩ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻋﱪ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﻻﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺧﺘﻴـﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺃﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﳑﻜﻦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﺳـﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﻣﺜـﻞ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻭﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﺳـﻮﺍﺀ ﻛﺎﻧـﺖ‬

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‫ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺃﻭ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻴﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻫﻲ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﻜﲑ ﺍﳌﺴﺒﻖ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻲ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺤﺎﺿﺮ ﻭﺗﺼﻮﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺑﻐﻴﺔ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻫﺪﻑ ﳏﺪﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺇﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﲡﻌﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﺄﻗﻞ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﳑﻜﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋـﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪ ،‬ﻷﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻌﻈـﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻫﻲ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬

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‫ﰲ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻌﲔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻭﻗﺪﺭﻬﺗﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻫﻲ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻹﻗﻨﺎﻉ ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﻭﻫﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ )ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ( ﺑﺘﻘﺪﱘ‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻮﻳـﻞ ) ﺇﻥ ﱂ ﻳﻜـﻦ‬ ‫ﲨﻴﻌﻬﺎ ( ﺗﺮﻓﺾ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺃﻱ ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﻘﺪﱘ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﺘﻠـﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٢١‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻫﻲ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻣﺘﺨﺬ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺐ ﻭﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﲟﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻼﺀﻡ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺎﺭﺋﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺘﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻴﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬

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‫ﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﻭﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ‪ ،‬ﳝﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻠﺺ ﺇﱃ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻧﺮﻯ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬

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‫ﺫﻛﺮﻫﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻧﻄﻤﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﲟﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﺧﻄﻮﻁ ﻋﺮﻳﻀﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻃﺎﺭﺍ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﺴﻬﻞ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺃﺧﺬﺍ ﺑﻌﲔ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻷﻫﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﳌﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺃﻧﻮﺍﻋﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺗﺎﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻨﻈﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺧﺬ ﲟﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﰲ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻛﻞ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﺣﱴ ﻳﺘﻤﻜﻨﻮﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻌﻬﻢ‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﺮﺗﻜﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺲ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﺻﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﻭﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﲡﻨﺐ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺸﻞ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﻧﻮﺻﻲ ﺑﺈﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺑﻨﻮﻙ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﳌﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺗﻮﻓﲑﻫﺎ ﺑﺄﻛﱪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﳑﻜﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺪﻯ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻜﺎﺗﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳍﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺸﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﺗﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲣﺺ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ -‬ﺍﶈﻠﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ‪ -‬ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻔﺼﻞ ﻭﺩﻗﻴﻖ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺣﱴ ﻳﺘﺴﲎ ﳌﻌﺪﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﻬﺑـﺬﻩ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻣﻌﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺄﻭﻓﺮ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺷﻴﺪ ﳜﻀﻊ ﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﻭﻧﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﻭﺿﻊ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﺍﳌﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﲟﺎ ﻳﺴﻤﺢ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧـﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﲔ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﻻﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﺜﻴﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻋﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻣﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻗﺼﺪ ﻧﺸﺮ ﺍﻟﻮﻋﻲ ﻭﲢﺴﻴﺲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﺑﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﺟـﺮﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻌﻬﻢ‪ ،‬ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺣﻔﻆ ﻷﻣﻮﺍﳍﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺪﻳﺪ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﻴﺎﻉ‪.‬ﻛﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻋﺎﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻭﺳﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-٥‬ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺧﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺧﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﻓﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻣﺎ ﳚﻌﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ﻳﻨﻀﺠﻮﻥ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭﻫﻢ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺮﺍﻋﻰ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﻣﺒﺴﻂ ﻭﺳﻬﻞ ﻟﻠﻔﻬﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﻻﺑﺪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟـﱵ ﻧـﺮﻯ‬‫ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻬﺗﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﻷﻧﻪ ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻆ ﻭﺍﳌﻠﺘﻤﺲ ﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻻ ﺗﺪﺭﺝ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺴﻴﻖ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺣﱴ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﻔﻆ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪.‬‬‫ ﲢﻔﻴﺰ ﻭﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﳍﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻠﻌﺐ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻓﺎﻋﻼ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻲ‬‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺗﻮﻓﲑ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﳍﺎ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻳﺔ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﻭ ﺍﳉﺒﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺫﻟـﻚ‬ ‫ﳎﺴﺪﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﻛﻼﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺭﻕ‪.‬‬ ‫ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻟﻠﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻗﺼﺪ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻣﺎ ﺟﺎﺀ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣـﺎ‬‫ﺗﻌﻠﻖ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﳚﺴﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻄﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﺿﺤﺔ ﻗﺼﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺧﻄﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﱵ‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺮﺗﻜﺐ‪ ،‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻣﺔ ﰲ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﻧﺮﻯ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻌﲔ ﻭﻳﻨﺼﺐ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺭﺟﺎﻝ ﺃﻛﻔﺎﺀ‪ ،‬ﻧﺰﻫﺎﺀ ﻭﻻ ﻣـﺎﻧﻊ ﻣـﻦ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﺽ ﺷﺮﻭﻁ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-١١‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﻯ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺷﺮﻁ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﻣﻠﻔﺎﻬﺗﻢ ‪ ،‬ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺮﻁ ﺇﺟـﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﻃﺎ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﺤﺒﺎ ﻭﻫﻮ ﺷﺮﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻫﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻟـﺪﻋﻢ‬ ‫ﺗﺸﻐﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺣﱴ ﻧﻀﻤﻦ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺗﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﻭﻣﺆﻫﻼﺕ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﻬﺑﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -١٢‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳍﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺒﻨﻮﻙ ﻭﺍﳌﺼﺎﱀ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺼﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻭﻛﻞ ﺍﳍﻴﺌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳜﻮﻝ ﳍﺎ ﺫﻟﻚ‬ ‫ﻧﺮﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺷﺨﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﲔ ﺑﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺷﺮﻭﻃﺎ ﺗﺆﻫﻠﻬﻢ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﺄﻫﻴﻼ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻴـﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﻀـﻤﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺋﺐ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻴﺤﺔ ﳌﻠﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﻄﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺣﱴ ﻧﻀـﻤﻦ‬ ‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺒﻮﻟﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫‪ -١٣‬ﻧﻮﺻﻲ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻭﻧﺪﻋﻮ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻌﻤﻞ ﲟﺎ ﺗﻀﻤﻨﺘﻪ ﻧﺼﻮﺹ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳚﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻴﻒ ﻣﺎ ﺟﺎﺀ ﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﻣﻊ ﻇﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﳏﻞ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -١٤‬ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﲢﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﲟﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻭﺗﺼﻨﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻌـﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪﻣﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺑﻼﺩﻧﺎ ﻫﻲ ﰲ ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﻣﺎﺳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -١٥‬ﻧﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻜﺎﺗﺐ ﳐﺘﺼﺔ ﺑﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﻳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴﺚ ﺗﺪﺭﺱ‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺮﺽ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻫﻮ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴـﺘﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻠﻌﺐ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻓﻌﺎﻻ ﻭﻫﺎﻣﺎ ﰲ ﺇﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻭﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﻫـﻲ‬ ‫ﲟﺜﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﳋﻼﻳﺎ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﳍﺎ ﻧﻀﻤﻦ ﺑﻌﺚ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺎﻫﻴﺔ ﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -١‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻧﻮﺻﻲ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﻭﻧﻘﺘﺮﺡ ﺑﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻜﺎﺗﺐ ﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳـﺎﺕ ﻣﻬﻤﺘـﻬﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺻﻼﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﺟﻮﺍﻧﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻟﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺔ ﳝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻠﻌـﺐ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻣﻬﻤـﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺗﺮﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﻳﺔ ﻛﻜﻞ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺗﺴﺠﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ‪-‬ﺣﺴﺐ ﺭﺃﻳﻨﺎ ‪ -‬ﱂ ﲡﺮ ﳍﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺳـﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭﻣﻔﺼﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺻﺮﻓﺖ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺿﺨﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺕ ﻣﻦ ﲤﻮﻳﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻮﻙ‬ ‫ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﺪﳝﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﳝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻠﻌﺐ ﺩﻭﺭﺍ ﻓﺎﻋﻼ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺸـﻮﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟـﱵ‬ ‫ﳛﺘﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲏ ‪ ،‬ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﻭﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺧﲑ ﻣﺘﻌﻄﺶ ﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﲣﺮﺟﻪ ﻣﻦ ﲣﻠﻔـﻪ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﺯﻣﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺘﺨﺒﻂ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﺳﻨﺬﻛﺮ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻛﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﳌﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-١‬ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻃﺎ ﺍﶈﻤﺮﺓ )ﺍﳌﻘﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﻳﺘﻮ ﺩﻳﺪﻭ ‪ ، ( frito dido‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ﳐﺘﺺ ﰲ ﺇﻧﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻃـﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﻤﺮﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻘﻊ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺼﻨﻊ ﺑﺒﻠﺪﻳﺔ ﺗﺴﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺋﺮﺓ ﺑﺌﺮﺗﻮﺗﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻﻳﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‪ ،‬ﻭﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻌﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻗﺮﻭﺽ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺘﻔﻴﺪ ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺻﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٢‬ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳊﻠﻮﻯ ) ﺣﻠﻮﻯ ﻛﻮﺟﺎﻙ (‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻟﻔﺖ ﺍﻧﺘﺒﺎﻫﻨﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻮ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺼﻨﻊ ﺃﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺐ ﻳﺘﺮﺑﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﺟﺪﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻀﺨﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﺻﺮﻓﻬﺎ ﻷﺟﻞ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺘﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻓـﻼ ﻳﻌﻘـﻞ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﺭﺃﻳﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﺎﻡ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺿﺨﻢ ﻛﻬﺬﺍ ﺠﻤﻟﺮﺩ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳊﻠﻮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺄﻥ ﺃﺯﻣﺘﻨﺎ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻓﺘﻘﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﳍﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻮﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﻳﻘﻊ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺼﻨﻊ ﰲ ﺑﻠﺪﻳﺔ ﺃﻭﻻﺩ ﺍﺷﺒﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺋﺮﺓ ﺑﺌﺮﺗﻮﺗﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻﻳﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‬ ‫‪ -٣‬ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﻜﻌﻚ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﲟﺪﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺵ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻﻳﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﻟﻔﺖ ﺍﻧﺘﺒﺎﻫﻨﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﳌﺼﻨﻊ ‪ ،‬ﲝﻴـﺚ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﻊ ﳏﺎﺫﻳﺎ ﻟﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺵ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﻑ ﺑﺘﻠﻮﺛﻪ ﺍﳋﻄﲑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺄﻥ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺘﻪ ﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ‪-‬ﺇﻥ‬

‫ﺍﳋـﺎﲤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌـــﺎﻣﺔ‬

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‫ﺃﺟﺮﻳﺖ ﻟﻪ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ‪ -‬ﱂ ﳚﺪ ﺇﻻ ﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﺵ ﻹﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﺘﻮﺝ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻨﺘﻮﺝ ﻏﺬﺍﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺷﺮﻁ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﺟﺒﺎﺭﻱ ﻓﻴﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ -٤‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻧﺴﺠﻞ ﻛﻤﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﻫﺎﻣﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺀ ﰲ ﺇﳒﺎﺯ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ )ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎ (‬ ‫ﺗﻜﻠﻒ ﺧﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﻟ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻫﺎﻣﺔ‪ ،‬ﰒ ﻟﺴﺒﺐ ﳎﻬﻮﻝ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻹﳒﺎﺯ ﻭﺗﻠﻘﻰ ﻣﺼﲑﺍ ﳎﻬﻮﻻ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻥ ﺳﺒﺐ ﻫﺬﺍ ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺐ ﺭﺃﻳﻨﺎ ‪ -‬ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺇﱃ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻧﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻀﻤﻦ ﺇﳒﺎﺯﻫﺎ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫‪% ١‬‬ ‫ﻭﲡﺪﺭ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺎ ﺫﻛﺮﻧﺎﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﺇﳕﺎ ﻫﻮ ﻗﻄﺮﺓ ﻣﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﲝﺮ‪ ،‬ﻻﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼـﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻧﻌﻴﺸﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻧﻔﺘﻘﺪﻫﺎ ﳘﺎ ﺃﻛﱪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻭﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻔﺴﲑ ﳌﺎ ﺃﺭﺩﻧﺎ ﺍﻹﺷﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺍﻷﺧﲑ ﻳﺒﻘﻰ ﺃﻣﻠﻨﺎ ﰲ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺪﺍﺭﻙ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻭ ﳛﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻋﻲ ﺑﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﳋﺮﻭﺝ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺆﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﻒ ﻭﳏﻮ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺧﻄﺎﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻜﺒﺔ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻲ ﺍﳊﺜﻴﺚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺇﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻣﻨﺸﺄﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺲ ﻭﻗﻮﺍﻋـﺪ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺈﻣﻜﺎﻬﻧﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰲ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺸـﻮﺩﺓ ﻭﺗﻀـﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﻓﺎﻫﻴـﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺸﺔ ﺍﻷﺣﺴﻦ ﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻧﺘﻤﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﲢﻘﻖ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳍﺪﻑ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺳﻌﻴﻨﺎ ﺇﱃ ﲢﻘﻴﻘﻪ ﻭﺳﻄﺮﻧﺎﻩ ‪،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻧﺮﺟﻮ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘـﺪﻡ ﻫـﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﳘﺔ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺑﺘﻮﻓﻴ ﺍ ﻭﻋﻮﻧﻪ‬

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‫ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﳌــﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬

‫ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﻠ ﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬‫ﺍﻟﻜﺘ ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃﲪﺪ ﻏﻨﻴﻢ ‪ - :‬ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﻧﺸﺎ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ﻧ ﺮﻳﺎ ﻭ ﻄﺒﻴﻘﻴﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﻟﻠﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻮﺭ‬‫‪١‬‬ ‫ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺩﻭﺭ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪١ ٥،‬‬

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‫ ﺃﲪﺪ ﻣﺎﻫﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭ ‪ /‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ‪ /‬ﺍﳋﺼﺨﺼﺔ ‪ /‬ﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪٢ ٢ ،‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺃﲪﺪ ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﺑﺎﳐﺮﻣﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺰﻫﺮﺍﺀ ‪،‬ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ ‪،‬‬

‫‪١‬‬

‫‪-‬ﺃﲪﺪ ﺣﺎﻓﻆ ﺍﳉﻌﻮﻳﲏ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻜﻤ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪١ ٤ ،‬‬

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‫ ﺃﻭﻳﺲ ﻋﻄﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﺰﻧﻂ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﺍ ﺪﻳﺜﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻷﺳﺲ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ‬‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪١ ٢،‬‬ ‫ ﺇﲰﺎﻋﻴﻞ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻬ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺮ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺚ‬‫ﺍﻹﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪١ ٣،‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺍﻷﺯﻫﺮﻱ ﳏﻤﺪ ﳏﻲ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪١ ٣ ،‬‬

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‫ﺇﻳﺮﻳﻨﺎﻡ ﺃﺳﺎﺩ ﺗﺸﺎﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻜﻴ ﻳﺔ ﺍ ﺪﻳﺜﺔ " ﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻴ ﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺮ ﻴ ﺍﻟﻜ ﺳﻴﻜ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ" ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﻴﻌﺔ‬‫‪١‬‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺑﲑﻭﺕ ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺇﺑﺮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﳘﻴﻤﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﻧﺘﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪١ ٥ ،‬‬

‫‪téléchargé‬‬

‫ ﺑﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺮﺩﻳﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺩﺧﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﻧﻮﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ‪،‬‬‫‪ -‬ﺟﻴﻤﺲ ﺟﻮﺭﺗﲏ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻤ )ﺍﻻﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﺍﳋﺎ‬

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‫( ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺮﻳﺦ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺮﻳﺎﺽ‬

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‫‪Document‬‬

‫ ﲪﺪﻱ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻈﻴﻢ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻋﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻐﺪ ﻟﻠﺪﻋﺎﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬‫‪١‬‬

‫ ﺧﺎﻟﺪ ﻭﻫﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﻭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ ‪ /‬ﻠﻴﻞ ‪ /‬ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍ ﻴ ﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﲑﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬‫ﻭﺍﻟﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ‪،‬‬

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‫ ﻃﺎﻫﺮ ﻣﺮﺳﻲ ﻋﻄﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻮﺭ ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ‪١ ٢ ،‬‬‫ ﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﲪﺪ ﻋﺴﻜﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﺮ ﺪ ﺇ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬‫ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺞ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪،‬‬

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‫ ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺑﻜﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﱄ ﻓﻬﻤﻲ ﺣﻴﺪﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻘﻴ‬‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

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‫ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﳌــﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬

‫ ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﻮﺡ ‪ ،‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﻴﻊ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻨ ﻴﻢ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ‬‫ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺻﺮ )ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺳﻨﺔ ﻧﺸﺮ (‬

‫ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ﺇﲰﺎﻋﻴﻞ ﲪﻴﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ‬‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻀﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪١ ٢ ،‬‬

‫ﳏﻤﺪ ﺷﻮﻗﻲ ﺑﺸﺎﺩﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪،‬‬‫‪١ ٥‬‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺃﺯﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﻙ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺻﻞ ‪١ ٤ ،‬‬‫ ﳏﺴﻦ ﺍﳋﻀﺮﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻄﺒﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪،‬‬‫‪١ ١‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺻﺎﱀ ﺍﳊﻨﺎﻭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻗﺮﺍ ﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺮ‬‫ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺚ ‪١ ٣ ،‬‬

‫ ﻣﺘﻮﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﱄ ‪ ،‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﻌﻢ ﺃﲪﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻬﺎﻣﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪،‬‬

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‫‪-‬ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺃﻣﲔ ﺯﻭﻳﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼ ﲑ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﺎﺀ ﻟﺪﻧﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

‫ ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺳﻼﻣﺔ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻄﺒﻮﻋﺎﺕ‬‫‪١‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ ‪،‬‬

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‫ ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺻﺎﺩﻕ ﺑﺎﺯﻏﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻮ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﻴ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻗﺎﺑﺔ ﻭﺍ ﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﻀﺔ‬‫‪١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪،‬‬

‫ ﻧﺒﻴﻞ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﻡ ﺷﺎﻛﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪،‬‬

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‫‪Document‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺳﻴﺪ ﺍﳍﻮﺍﺭﻱ ‪ -:‬ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪١ ٢ ،‬‬

‫ ﺍﳌﻮﺳﻮﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻮ ﺍﻹﺳ ﻣﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ) ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻮﻙ‬‫ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻴﺔ ( ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪١ ٢ ،‬‬

‫ ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺑ ﺍﻟﻨ ﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ‬‫‪٢‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬ ‫ ﺳﻌﺪ ﺯﻛﻲ ﻧﺼﺎﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺎﱄ ﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳌﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﺔ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪١ ٥ ،‬‬

‫ ﲰﲑ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺷﻌﺎﻉ‬‫ﺍﻹﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

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‫ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﳌــﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬

‫‪ -‬ﲰﲑ ﻋﻼﻡ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼ ﲑ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪،‬‬

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‫ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳊﻤﻴﺪ ‪ -:‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻻ ﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ‬‫‪٢‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬ ‫ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻠﻴﻞ ﺟ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪،‬‬

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‫ﻭ ﻠ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ ﺯﻫﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ‬

‫‪ -‬ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﻡ ﺍﳊﻠﱯ ‪ ،‬ﺷﺤﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﳉﻴﻮﺷﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺇﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼ ﲑ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺻﻔﺎﺀ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬

‫‪CERIST‬‬

‫ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ‪٢ ١ ،‬‬

‫ ﻋﻘﻴﻞ ﺟﺎﺳﻢ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍ ‪ ،‬ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ )ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﻧ ﺮﻱ ﻭ ﻄﺒﻴﻘ ( ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﳎﺪﻻﻭﻱ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‬‫‪١‬‬

‫‪www.pnst.cerist.dz‬‬

‫ ﻋﺎﺩﻝ ﻃﻪ ﻓﺎﻳﺪ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﺀ ﻟﻠﻄﺒﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ‪ ،‬ﺷﲔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻡ ‪١ ٢ ،‬‬‫ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﱘ ﺻﺎﺩﻕ ﺑﺮﻛﺎﺕ ‪ ،‬ﺃﲪﺪ ﺭﻣﻀﺎﻥ ﻧﻌﻤﺔ ﺍ ‪ ،‬ﺎﺿﺮﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

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‫ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻝ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ ﻋﻄﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ‬‫ﻋﻠ ﺍ ﺎﺳ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﱐ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻹﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪١ ٤ ،‬‬

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‫ ﻋﻮﺽ ﺍ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﻌﻢ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺮ‬‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪١ ٣ ،‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺻﻘﺮ ﺃﲪﺪ ﺻﻘﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨ ﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﻏﺮﻳﺐ ﻟﻠﻄﺒﺎﻋﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪،‬‬

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‫ ﻗﺎﺳﻢ ﻧﺎﺟﻲ ﲪﻨﺪﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﻧ ﺮﻱ ﻭ ﻄﺒﻴﻘ ﰲ ﺃﺳﺲ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬‫ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ " ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻮﻳﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻨﺪﺳﻴﺔ "‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ " ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ "‬ ‫‪٢‬‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻫﺞ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺮ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ‪،‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ‪:‬‬

‫ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺩﻳﺎﺏ ‪ ،‬ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟ ﺭﺍﻋﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻣﻲ ‪ ،‬ﲨﻬﻮﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﺼﺮ‬‫ﻣﺬﻛﺮﺓ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ ، ١‬ﺟﻮﻳﻠﻴﺔ ‪،‬‬

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‫‪ -‬ﲨﻴﻞ ﺃﲪﺪ ﺗﻮﻓﻴﻖ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺬ ﺮﺍﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪١ ٥ ،‬‬

‫ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﳌــﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻃﺮﻭ ﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﺳﺎ ﻞ ‪:‬‬ ‫ ﺃﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻗﻨﺪﻳﻞ ‪ ،‬ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﳉﺎﻣﻌ‬‫ﺃﻃﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﺩﻛﺘﻮﺭﺍﻩ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪١ ٣ ،‬‬

‫ ﺍﺑﺘﺴﺎﻡ ﺣﺴﲔ ‪ ،‬ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻞ ﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﳌﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻭﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺘ ﺪ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬‫ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﶈﺎ ﺎ ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﲑ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻃﻨﻄﺎ ‪١ ٥ ،‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﺑﻌﺪﺍﺵ ﻣﺴﻴﻜﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺎﺫ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑ ﺍﻟﻨ ﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴ ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺫﻟ ﻋﻠ‬

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‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ " ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﳉ ﺍ ﺮ" ‪ ،‬ﺃﻃﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﺩﻛﺘﻮﺭﺍﻩ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪،‬ﺍﳋﺮﻭﺑﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ‪٢ ١ ،‬‬

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‫ ﻬﺑﻴﺔ ﻫﺎﺷﻢ ﻋﺰﻳﺰﻱ ﺃﲪﺪ‪ ،‬ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﻭﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻨﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﲑ‬‫‪ ،‬ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ ‪١ ٥ ،‬‬ ‫ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺑﻠﻘﺎﺳﻢ ﻬﺑﻠﻮﻝ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺇ ﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍ ﻥ ﺍﳉﻬﻮﻱ ) ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﳉ ﺍ ﺮ ( ‪ ،‬ﺃﻃﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﺩﻛﺘﻮﺭﺍﻩ‬‫ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳋﺮﻭﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ‪١ ٤ ،‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟ ﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎ‬

‫ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﺒﻴ ﻋﻠ‬

‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﺃﻃﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﺩﻛﺘﻮﺭﺍﻩ ﻣﻨﺸﻮﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﻜﻨﺪﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬‬

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‫ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻗﻮﻳﺪﺭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺃﺳﺲ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻯ ﻭﻣﻌﺎﻳﲑ ﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﲑ‬‫‪١‬‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳋﺮﻭﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ -‬ﻋﻠﻲ ﺻﺤﺮﺍﻭﻱ ‪ ،‬ﻣ ﺎﻫﺮ ﺍﳉﺒﺎﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ﻭﺃ ﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳋﺎ‬

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‫ﻣﻦ ﺧ ﻝ‬

‫" ﺍﻟﺘ ﺮﺑﺔ ﺍﳉ ﺍ ﺮﻳﺔ " ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﲑ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺮﻭﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ‪١ ٢ ،‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻟﻌﺒﲏ ﻋﻤﺮ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺘ ﲑﺍﺕ ﻋﻠ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﲑ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳋﺮﻭﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ‪،‬‬

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‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ‪ ،‬ﺍﳋﺮﻭﺑﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ ‪،‬‬

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‫ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﻓﻀﻴﻞ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎ ﺮ ﺍﻷﺟﻨ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻣﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﲑ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻬﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ‬‫ ﻫﻨﺎﺀ ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﻬﺞ ﺇﻋﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ ﻳﻊ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍ ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﺎﻟﺔ‬‫ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﲑ ‪،‬ﻛﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻋﲔ ﴰﺲ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻫﺮﺓ‬

‫ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﳌــﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬

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depuis

- Chervel marc, Evaluation économique des projets : calculs économiques Public et planification, paris : publi sud 1995 - Denis Babisiaux , Décision d'investissement et calcul économique dans l'entreprise , economeca- edition technip , paris 1992 - Ezia Solomon,"Théorie de la gestion financière", Ed Dunnod, Paris, 1972 -Jacques margerin , gerard ausset , Investissement et financement, société d'édition et diffusion pour la formation , paris - Justen Daniel, Michael schyns, Théorie stochastique de la décision d'investissement , Bruxelles 1997 -Hamdi kamel , Analyse des projets et leur financement , imp essalem 2000 -Houdayer robert, Evaluation financière des projets, paris , economica 1993 - Little and Mirless, " Projet Appraisal and Planing for Developing Countries ", London , Heiman Educational books LTD , 1974 - Mihai Niculai, Méthodes d'organisation et planification industrielle Oran 1979/ 1988 Organisation for economic cooperation and developement (OECD) " Manual of industrial projet analysis for developing countries ", vol 2 social cost benefit analysis, by, Little and Mirlees, Paris 1969 - Zekri Mohamed, Choix des investissements en avenir incertain thèse de magistère, institut sciences économiques caroubier, université d'Alger 1999

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