Media and Polarization @jonathanstray Build Peace 2015
Polarization is really easy to see in our data
Polarization in Congress
Retweet network of political tweets. From Conover, et. al., Political Polarization on Twi.er
Map of political book sales on Amazon, August 2008 Vladis Krebs, orgnet.com
Gun violence: people who tweeted this article also tweeted that article Jonathan Stray, The Whole Dysfunctional National Conversation about Guns in one Interactive Graph, The Atlantic, 2012
Is polarization increasing? (in the US)
Royce Carroll, Jeff Lewis, James Lo, Nolan McCarty, Keith Poole, and Howard Rosenthal, "ʺCommon Space"ʺ DW-‐‑NOMINATE Scores
Estimated by comparing 2-‐‑ and 3-‐‑word phrase use to Congressional Record Gregory J. Martin, Ali Yurukoglu, Bias in Cable News:Real Effects and Polarization
CNN, Fox, MSNBC Source
Divisive statements / hour
CNN
5.5
Fox
22.0
MSNBC
27.3
Stephen Lo^, The news we use: A mixed method analysis of cable news media polarization
"ʺDivisive language"ʺ Monsters, Extremists, Rich (or wealthy), Poor (or peasants), Uncle Toms, Bunk, Gibberish, Dopey, Corrupt, Demonize, Heartless, Cheapskate, Hippie, Liberal, Conservative, Socialist, Fascist, Communist, Nazi, Pinhead, Right (or any variation), Left (or any variation), Birther (or any variation), Beaten up, Smeared, Slandered, Besmirched, Racist, Bigot, Homophobe, Cowardly, Weak, Nutty, Dumb, Religious zealot, Incoherent, Ignorance, Stupid, Bellicose, Aggressive, Fake, Quack, Fringe, Ridiculous, Idiotic, Freak show, Thieves, Special interest lobbyists, Bureaucrats, Garbage, Bull, Red, Blue
Pew Research, Political Polarization in the American Public
It ma^ers what you measure!
Is observed polarization due to the lack of cross-‐‑group ties / exposure? Or do people see the other side and only engage in polarized ways? From Garcia, et. al., Network Polarization in online politics participatory media
Dem/GOP voters more divided...
Pew Research, Political Polarization in the American Public
...but fewer people identify as Dem/GOP
Pew Research, A Deep Dive into Party Affiliation
Definitions of polarization Ideological convergence on survey items Distance between voting patterns Formation of clusters in social networks Lack of inter-group ties Comparative language use ...
Polarization increases around political events
Favorability of incumbent (AKP) and opposition (CHP) in Turkish press Ali Çarkoglu, Lemi Baruh, and Kerem Yildirim, Press-‐‑Party Parallelism and Polarization of News Media during an Election Campaign: The Case of the 2011 Turkish Elections
Hashtag polarity in Egypt, Islamist vs. Secular
a – Assailants gather outside Ministry of Defence to call for an end to military rule b -‐‑ Demonstrations break out after President Morsi grants self increased power c,d -‐‑ Continuing protests after the November 22nd declaration e -‐‑ Demonstrations in Tahrir square, Port Said and all accross the country. f,g -‐‑ Demonstrations at Tahrir square
Ingmar Weber, Venkata R. Kiran Garimella, Alaa Batayneh, Secular vs. islamist polarization in egypt on twi.er
More engaged = more polarized!
Most people still centrist...
Does media drive polarization?
Media drives polarization Increased Media Polarization
Increasingly Polarized People
[We find] a positive feedback process where voters watch slanted news, are influenced to move closer to the news’ channel’s ideology, and subsequently have even stronger preference for that channel, due to the decreased ideological distance. ... A voter watching an hour per week of a news channel for a year would be influenced to a new ideological position just under 10% of the distance to the channel’s ideology. Gregory J. Martin, Ali Yurukoglu, Bias in Cable News:Real Effects and Polarization
Gregory J. Martin, Ali Yurukoglu, Bias in Cable News:Real Effects and Polarization
Media drives polarization, polarization drives media Increased Media Polarization
Increasingly Polarized People
Models of polarization
Which polarization? Polarized attitudes Polarized media consumption Polarized voting / behavior
In the 1970s, about a quarter of Americans identified strongly with a political party. Media in the broadcast era were probably too centrist for these people’s tastes. Technological change has made it economically viable to cater to smaller audience segments. Nobody should be surprised that some strong partisans turned to more ideologically congruous media formats when they became available. But that audience migration alone does not constitute evidence that partisan media polarize Americans.
Markus Prior, Media and Political Polarization
Increased media choice drives polarized consumption Pre-‐‑existing polarized a^itudes
Increased media choice
Increasingly polarized media consumption
Polarized media feedback cycle Increasingly polarized media consumption
Media sources pick a side to gain viewer loyalty
Increasingly polarized a^itudes
Media Polarization Dynamics other factors Media choice
Polarized consumption
Creation of polarized media
Polarized a^itudes
Polarized behavior other factors
