Asia Pacific Equity Research 09 September 2015

Underweight

CDL Hospitality Trusts

CDLT.SI, CDREIT SP Price: S$1.32

Maiden UK acquisition

▼ Price Target: S$1.40 Previous: S$1.70

CDREIT's maiden UK acquisition will boost DPU by 1.9%. While we view the purchase positively, its dominant domestic market remains plagued by supply-demand headwinds. Maintain UW.  First UK asset. CDREIT will acquire Cambridge City Hotel, which is a 198-room 125-yr leasehold (100 years left) upscale hotel in the city centre of Cambridge, United Kingdom for £61.5m (S$133.2m) or £0.31m (S$0.67m) per key. First opened in 1991, an £8.2m (S$17.8m) refurbishment was completed in Apr-15. Seller is London & Regional Properties, a London-based privately-held property company which owns/manages hotels, retail and leisure complexes in Europe.  1.9% DPU-accretion, based on pro-forma annualized 1H15 NPI yield of 5.6% and 1H15 RevPAR of £101 (+28.6% YoY). NPI could improve via AEI opportunities and the appointment of an international operator to reposition the hotel. Post the acquisition, UK comprises 5.3%/5.4% of NPI/AUM, with Singapore still the dominant geography at 61.8%/71.1% (previously 65.2%/75.1%). The acquisition will be fully funded by GBPdenominated debt and will raise gearing to 35.8% from 32.0%.

Singapore Conglomerates and Property Brandon Lee

AC

(65) 6882-7073 [email protected] Bloomberg JPMA BLEE J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited

Terence M Khi (65) 6882-1518 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited

Cusson Leung, CFA (852) 2800-8526 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Price Performance

1.6 S$

 Positive hospitality outlook. Cambridge is one of the top destinations in UK for domestic and overseas visitors, as well as an important location for UK’s R&D sector. It is home to a large cluster of high-tech businesses, i.e. AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Microsoft, HP and Amazon. RevPAR for comparables grew 6% in 2014, according to STR Global.  Maintain UW. While we view the acquisition positively, we think impact on earnings is benign, with supply and demand headwinds continuing to plague the group's domestic operations. We have trimmed FY15-17E DPU by 8-10% due to steeper RevPAR decline in Singapore (-10% vs. -3% previously), with PT reduced by 18%. Maintain UW. CDL Hospitality Trusts (Reuters: CDLT.SI, Bloomberg: CDREIT SP) S$ in mn, year-end Dec FY13A FY14A FY15E Revenue (S$ mn) 149 167 157 Net property income (S$ mn) 137 141 139 Distributable Profit (S$ mn) 107 108 103 EPU (S$) 0.11 0.11 0.10 DPU (S$) 0.11 0.11 0.10 BVPU (S$) 1.63 1.65 1.64 Revenue growth (%) (0.5%) 12.1% (5.9%) DPU growth (%) (3.1%) 0.1% (5.1%) P/E (x) 12.4 12.3 13.1 P/BV (x) 0.8 0.8 0.8 Dividend Yield 8.3% 8.3% 7.9% Gearing 29.6% 31.6% 35.3% RNAV/Share 1.50

FY16E 168 141 103 0.10 0.10 1.63 6.8% (1.3%) 13.4 0.8 7.8% 35.7% -

FY17E 173 145 106 0.10 0.11 1.63 3.2% 2.8% 13.0 0.8 8.0% 36.1% -

1.4 1.2 Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

CDLT.SI share price (S$) FTSTI (rebased)

Abs Rel

YTD -24.4% -11.3%

1m -11.7% -3.3%

Company Data Shares O/S (mn) Market Cap (S$ mn) Market Cap ($ mn) Price (S$) Date Of Price Free Float(%) 3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 3M - Avg daily val (S$ mn) 3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) FTSTI Exchange Rate Price Target End Date

3m -19.8% -8.7%

12m -21.4% -9.0%

985 1,300 917 1.32 09 Sep 15 1.64 2.50 1.8 2928.18 1.42 31-Dec-15

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

See page 6 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of [email protected] & clients of J.P. Morgan.

Asia Pacific Equity Research 09 September 2015

Brandon Lee (65) 6882-7073 [email protected]

Key catalysts for the stock price:

Upside risks to our view:

Downside risks to our view:

• Improvement in global macro outlook • Rebound in China tourists • Delay in sizeable growth in hotel inventory, which will increase by 6% p.a. in 2015-16

• Better-than-expected visitor arrivals and therefore room rate growth • Improvement in global macroeconomic environment, which leads to higher corporate budgets • Unexpected increase in the dividend payout ratio • Acquisitions of yield-accretive assets

• Sustained period of RevPAR declines resulting from decline in tourist arrivals and corporate expenditures • High sensitivity to forecast errors in RevPAR given the high operating leverage • Forex depreciation in AUD, NZD and USD

Key financial metrics Revenues (LC) Revenue growth (%) NPI (LC m) NPI Growth (%) NPI Margin (%) EBIT (m) Asc/JV (m) Reported PATMI (LC m) Operating PATMI (LC m) Operating EPS (LC cts) Free Cash Flow (LC m) Interest Cover (x) DPS (LC cts) DPS Growth (%) P/E (x) Yield (%) Gearing (%) ROE (%) Key model assumptions Occupancy Rate RevPAR

FY14A 167 12.1% 141 2.3% 84% 123 0 122 105 10.7 90 7.6 10.98 0.1% 12.3 8.3% 32% 6.5% FY14A 88% 188

FY15E 157 -5.9% 139 -1.4% 88% 124 0 99 99 10.1 132 6.2 10.42 -5.1% 13.1 7.9% 35% 6.1% FY15E 89% 169

FY16E 168 6.8% 141 1.6% 84% 126 0 97 97 9.8 148 5.5 10.28 -1.3% 13.4 7.8% 36% 6.0% FY16E 89% 161

FY17E 173 3.2% 145 3.0% 84% 130 0 101 101 10.1 152 5.7 10.58 2.8% 13.0 8.0% 36% 6.2% FY17E 89% 166

Borrowing Cost 2.5% Source: Company and J.P. Morgan estimates.

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

Sensitivity analysis Sensitivity to 5% chg in RevPAR 1% chg in NOI Margin 1% chg in Interest Cost Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Valuation and price target basis Our Dec-15 price target of S$1.40 is based on the average of our DDM and RNAV estimates, with DDM using a 10.6% discount rate and LT growth rate of 1.5%. RNAV is estimated @ S$474,752 per key.

Portfolio breakdown by asset value Cambridge City Claymore Link Hotel MyStays Hotel 4% Jumeirah Asakusabashi 5% Dhevanafushi Hotel MyStays 1% 3% Kamata 1% Angsana Grand Orchard Hotel Copthorne Velavaru 19% Waterfront 4% Ibis Perth Hotel 2% 14% Mercure Perth 2% Mercure Brisbane & Ibis Novotel Brisbane M Hotel Brisbane 4% 9% 4% Copthorne Rendezvous Studio M Novotel Clarke Quay King's Hotel Hotel Auckland 7% 11% 6% 4%

Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates.

NOI Impact 5.7% 1.1% N.A.

JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates DPS (LC) JPMe old JPMe new % chg Consensus Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

DPU Impact 7.6% 1.5% 4.7%

FY15E 11.36 10.42 -8% 10.60

FY16E 11.39 10.28 -10% 11.00

Comparative metrics

A-REIT Ascott Residence Trust CapitaLand Commercial Trust CapitaLand Mall Trust CapitaLand Retail China Trust CDL Hospitality Trust Far East Hospitality Trust Frasers Centrepoint Trust Keppel REIT Mapletree Commercial Trust Mapletree Industrial Trust Suntec REIT

Price(S$)

MktCap

9-Sep-15 2.16 1.20 1.32 1.88 1.37 1.32 0.62 1.90 0.95 1.28 1.54 1.54

S$Mn 5,201 1,844 3,895 6,513 1,151 1,300 1,106 1,742 3,040 2,700 2,717 3,874

RNAV Current 2.57 1.40 1.52 2.17 1.72 1.50 0.71 1.87 1.21 1.34 1.47 1.63

% disc -16.0% -14.3% -13.0% -13.3% -20.4% -12.3% -12.7% 1.6% -21.2% -4.7% 4.6% -5.6%

Div Yield (%) CY15E 7.0% 7.2% 6.2% 6.0% 7.7% 7.9% 7.5% 6.1% 7.2% 6.4% 6.9% 6.3%

CY16E 7.4% 7.5% 6.4% 6.2% 8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 6.2% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 6.1%

P/BV (x) FY15E 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.7

Gearing FY16E 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.7

(%) 28.9% 37.6% 33.5% 32.1% 28.5% 31.6% 31.3% 29.3% 43.3% 38.6% 34.4% 34.6%

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Prices are as of 09-Sep-15

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Asia Pacific Equity Research 09 September 2015

Brandon Lee (65) 6882-7073 [email protected]

Table 1: Acquisition Details Property Type Address/ Location

Cambridge City Hotel Upper upscale 20 Downing St, Cambridge CB2 3DT, England, UK. Prime location in Cambridge city centre, within walking distance to key attractions London & Regional Group CDL HBT Cambridge City (UK), indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of HBT Trustee manager £61.5m (~S$133.2m) £61.5m (~S$133.2m) £311,000 (~S$673,000) Head Lessor: Cambridge City Council Leasehold (~100 years remaining) with lessee option to renew for a further 50 years Opened in 1991, £8.2m (~S$17.8m) refurbishment in Apr-15 198 3 F&B outlets, 1 gym including sauna, 5 meeting rooms, 50 parking lots Owner-operated, free of operator or brand Expected to be on or around 1 Oct 15 100% offshore GBP-denominated debt Gearing to rise to 35.8% post-acquisition from 32.0% £101 / 28.6% £3.4m / ~5.6%

Vendor Purchaser Property Price Valuation* Property Price per key Title details Year of Opening Number of rooms Other amenities Vacant Possession Date of Completion Funding Gearing Impact RevPAR (1H15)/ YoY Growth (%) Annualised NPI/ NPI Yield (£m/ %) based on 1H15 performance DPS Accretion (%) based on proforma 1H15

~1.9%

Source: Company Data. *Note: Valuation by Knight Frank on the basis that the Property is managed by an international hotel operator.

Figure 1: International Visitor Arrivals to UK

Figure 2: Visitor Arrivals to Cambridge

Millions

Thousands

36 34.4

35 34 32 30

30.8

430

417.7

420 410

32.7

33 31

35.1

398.2

400

387.1

390

31.1

380

29.8

370

29

360

28

350

27

403.7

366.5

340 2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Office for National Statistics (UK), Company Data, VisitBritain

2014

2015F

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Knight Frank, Company Data, VisitBritain

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Brandon Lee (65) 6882-7073 [email protected]

Asia Pacific Equity Research 09 September 2015

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks CDL Hospitality Trusts (Underweight; Price Target: S$1.40) Investment Thesis CDREIT is a hospitality REIT with 74% of portfolio exposure in Singapore hotels. Sector headwinds continue to persist arising from flat demand growth and continued supply in the mid/mass segments. Sector-wide occupied room nights in 2013 were also down 3% Y/Y. Having said that, we note that year-on-year RevPAR declines are expected to stabilize due to low base effects. Valuation Our Dec-15 price target of S$1.70 is based on the average of our DDM and RNAV estimates, with DDM using a 9.2% discount rate and LT growth rate of 1.5%. Tenure adjusted RNAV is estimated @ S$504,856 per key. Risks to Rating and Price Target Key upside risks stem from better-than-expected visitor arrivals and therefore room rate growth, improvement in global macroeconomic environment, which leads to higher corporate budgets as well as an unexpected increase in the dividend payout ratio. We also highlight the high sensitivity to any forecast errors in RevPAR and business cyclicality given the high operating leverage. Currency fluctuation also adds on to downside risk.

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Asia Pacific Equity Research 09 September 2015

Brandon Lee (65) 6882-7073 [email protected]

CDL Hospitality Trusts: Summary of Financials Income Statement S$ in millions, year end Dec Revenues % change Y/Y EBIT % change Y/Y EBIT Margin (%) Net Interest Earnings before tax % change Y/Y Tax as % of EBT Net income (reported) % change Y/Y Distributable Income % change Y/Y Shares outstanding EPS (reported) (S$) % change Y/Y DPU (reported) (S$) % change Y/Y Balance sheet S$ in millions, year end Dec Cash and cash equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Others Current assets LT investments Net fixed assets Total Assets

FY14 167 12.1% 123 (0.3%) 73.5% (16) 124 (13.3%) (1) 1.2% 105 1.1% 108 0.8% 982 0.11 0.4% 0.11 0.1%

FY15E 157 (5.9%) 124 1.0% 79.0% (20) 104 (16.2%) (4) 4.3% 99 (5.2%) 103 (4.2%) 990 0.10 (6.0%) 0.10 (5.1%)

FY16E 168 6.8% 126 1.7% 75.3% (23) 103 (0.7%) (6) 5.5% 97 (1.9%) 103 (0.6%) 997 0.10 (2.6%) 0.10 (1.3%)

FY17E 173 3.2% 130 3.1% 75.3% (23) 107 3.8% (6) 5.5% 101 3.8% 106 3.6% 1,004 0.10 3.1% 0.11 2.8%

FY14 76 20 1 98

FY15E 66 16 1 83

FY16E 87 17 1 105

FY17E 108 17 1 126

2,206 145 2,450

2,340 150 2,574

2,340 155 2,601

Liabilities ST Loans 317 Payables 40 Others 1 Total current liabilities 358 Long-term debt 458 Other liabilities 19 Total Liabilities 834 Shareholders' equity 1,616 BVPS 1.65 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

317 24 1 342 591 19 951 1,623 1.64

317 25 1 343 611 19 973 1,628 1.63

Cash flow statement S$ in millions, year end Dec EBIT Depr. & amortization Change in working capital Others Cash flow from operations Capex Net acquisitions Net Interest Free cash flow Equity raised/(repaid) Debt raised/(repaid) Other Dividends paid Beginning cash Ending cash DPU reported Ratio Analysis S$ in millions, year end Dec EBIT Margin Net margin

Sales growth Net profit growth 2,340 EBIT growth 160 EPS growth 2,627 Interest coverage (x) Net debt to total capital 317 Net debt to equity 26 Sales/assets (x) 1 Assets/equity (x) 344 ROE 631 ROCE 19 994 1,633 1.63

FY14 123 0 4 31 139

FY15E 124 0 (12) 30 118

FY16E 126 0 1 33 131

FY17E 130 0 0 33 135

(66) (27) (16) 90

(5) (134) (20) 132

(5) 0 (23) 148

(5) 0 (23) 152

0 84 (18) (106) 69 76 0.11

0 134 (21) (103) 76 66 0.10

0 20 (24) (103) 66 87 0.10

0 20 (24) (106) 87 108 0.11

FY14 73.5% 62.8%

FY15E 79.0% 63.3%

FY16E 75.3% 58.2%

FY17E 75.3% 58.6%

12.1% 1.1% (0.3%) 0.4%

(5.9%) (5.2%) 1.0% (6.0%)

6.8% (1.9%) 1.7% (2.6%)

3.2% 3.8% 3.1% 3.1%

7.6 30.2% 43.2% 0.1 1.5 6.5% 5.2%

6.2 34.2% 51.9% 0.1 1.6 6.1% 4.8%

5.5 34.1% 51.7% 0.1 1.6 6.0% 4.7%

5.7 34.0% 51.5% 0.1 1.6 6.2% 4.8%

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Asia Pacific Equity Research 09 September 2015

Brandon Lee (65) 6882-7073 [email protected]

Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based research analysts listed on the front cover, they also certify, as per KOFIA requirements, that their analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect their own opinion, without undue influence or intervention.

Important Disclosures Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables, are available for compendium reports and all J.P. Morgan–covered companies by visiting https://jpmm.com/research/disclosures, calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing [email protected] with your request. J.P. Morgan’s Strategy, Technical, and Quantitative Research teams may screen companies not covered by J.P. Morgan. For important disclosures for these companies, please call 1-800-4770406 or e-mail [email protected].

CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLT.SI, CDREIT SP) Price Chart 4 N S$2.51 OW S$2.8 UW S$1.608 OW S$1.8

OW S$2.35N S$1.5

N S$2.1

UW S$1.7

3 OW OW S$1.999 N S$2.275 S$2.282 UW S$1.507 UW S$0.545 OW OW S$2 S$2.1 OW S$2.3 N S$1.8 N S$1.55 N S$1.9 UW S$1.9 N S$1.6

UW NR S$1.65

Price(S$) 2

1

0 Oct 06

Apr 08

Oct 09

Apr 11

Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends. Break in coverage Aug 25, 2014 - Dec 09, 2014.

Oct 12

Apr 14

Oct 15

Date

Rating Share Price (S$)

Price Target (S$)

19-Jan-07

OW

1.65

2.00

17-May-07 OW

2.01

2.27

22-Jun-07

N

2.40

2.51

31-Jul-07

N

2.29

2.52

23-Aug-07 N

2.12

2.28

01-Nov-07 OW

2.47

2.80

21-Jan-08

OW

2.20

2.55

19-Mar-08 UW

1.90

1.51

16-Jun-08

UW

1.80

1.61

16-Jul-08

UW

1.49

1.32

03-May-09 UW

0.58

0.55

02-Aug-09 OW

1.29

1.80

01-Nov-09 OW

1.59

1.85

20-Jan-10

OW

1.76

2.00

02-May-10 OW

1.98

2.10

31-Oct-10

OW

2.14

2.30

11-Jan-11

OW

2.05

2.35

21-Mar-11 OW

2.00

2.10

28-Aug-11 N

1.72

1.80

19-Oct-11

N

1.49

1.50

31-Jan-12

N

1.71

1.55

31-Jul-12

N

2.08

1.90

02-Oct-12

N

2.03

2.10

20-Oct-12

UW

2.08

2.00

06-Jan-13

UW

1.97

1.90

31-Aug-13 N

1.56

1.60

25-Aug-14 NR

1.65

--

09-Dec-14 UW

1.74

1.65

28-Jan-15

1.80

1.70

UW

The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) 6

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Asia Pacific Equity Research 09 September 2015

coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s research website, www.jpmorganmarkets.com. Coverage Universe: Lee, Brandon: Ascendas REIT (AEMN.SI), Ascott Residence Trust (ASRT.SI), CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLT.SI), CapitaLand (CATL.SI), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CACT.SI), CapitaLand Mall Trust (CMLT.SI), CapitaLand Retail China Trust (CRCT.SI), City Developments (CTDM.SI), Far East Hospitality Trust (FAEH.SI), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCRT.SI), Global Logistic Properties Ltd (GLPL.SI), Keppel REIT (KASA.SI), Mapletree Commercial Trust (MACT.SI), Mapletree Industrial Trust (MAPI.SI), Suntec REIT (SUNT.SI) J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of June 30, 2015

J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage IB clients* JPMS Equity Research Coverage IB clients*

Overweight (buy) 44% 51% 45% 71%

Neutral (hold) 43% 48% 47% 66%

Underweight (sell) 13% 38% 9% 57%

*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above.

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Asia Pacific Equity Research 09 September 2015

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Brandon Lee (65) 6882-7073 [email protected]

Asia Pacific Equity Research 09 September 2015

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