[Course Number]--Introduction to Risk Management Time: Instructor: Sonja Streuber

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Introduction This course presents a real-life approach to risk management in an industrial/ technical setting—the key word here being “management.” The management of risks, in other words, is the management of information which the risk manager extracts from her most important sources in a corporate setting: People, historical information, people, technical analyses and feasibility studies, people, and also, of course, people. At the end of this course, students should be able to develop and execute a risk management plan for a small to medium sized organization, including performing realistic risk assessments and integrating the resulting cost and schedule numbers and milestones with the organization’s Earned Value Management (EVM) system. Textbooks and Materials • •

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“Risk Management.” Chapter 11. Project Management Body of Knowledge. PMI, 2009. Modarres, Mohammad. Risk Analysis in Engineering. Techniques, Tools, and Trends. 2006. Taylor and Francis. Preview at Google Books: http://books.google.com/books?id=ErjFzRWSne8C&dq=isbn:1574447947 Access to MS Excel and MS Project

Workload Reading: Readings and assignments for each week are due prior to start of each class session for which they are assigned (see schedule). Participation: Online: From Monday (9 A.M) through Thursday (5 P.M), contribute, read and discuss the postings on the discussion board for that week. In class: Participate in the discussion. Make at least three cogent, constructive comments per class session or online to earn points as described below. Writing: Assignments as listed on the class schedule and explained in the following section. All assignments will build up to the final case study/ team project. While the writing assignments are completed as team efforts and graded as such, the midterm is graded on an individual basis. Grading and Assignments You can earn up to 1000 points in this course. I maintain a spreadsheet in which I track all points and calculate your current grade routinely. If you would like the algorithm, just ask. Component Participation

Points 360

Notes 10 points for each thoughtful, constructive comment that

Midterm

240

Final Case Study Presentation

400

goes beyond “I agree with what X said”/ “Hi, I’m here.”/ “Yes.”/ “No.” 100 multiple-choice and short-answer questions about the materials covered in sessions 1-7. For your team, pick one of the projects below and perform a complete risk identification and analysis. Your final write-up will feature a complete risk profile for this project, including • a risk management plan incl. risk communication plan and strategy • a comprehensive discussion of the top five project risks • the risk register • a comprehensive risk cost assessment • decision trees (incl. EMV) leading to a ranking of at least two mitigation plans per risk For your presentation, prepare a set of ca. 10-12 Powerpoint slides and plan to distribute speaking tasks among each other. Before the final class session, load both the slideset and the writeup onto the class server as .pdf files. Projects: 1. Your aerospace company is retrofitting the Rover to accompany a manned mission to Mars. See http://www.space.com/marsrover/ for more technical information. 2. Your oil company is planning to explore an oilfield off the New Zealand coast. 3. Your theater company is planning to perform a controversial drama about human rights and internet censorship in China. 4. Your startup is launching a news network that delivers paid content solely over internet TV.

Total

1000

Schedule Class Topic 1 What is a Risk? What is an Opportunity? Risk attitudes. 2 Planning Risk Management 3 Planning Risk Management 4 Identifying Risks 5 Assessing and Ranking Risks

Reading PMBOK Ch. 11; Modarres Ch. 1

Due in class

Team agreement Risk Management Plan Modarres Ch. 2

Five Risks

6 7

Estimating Risks/ Factoring Cost Quantitative Analysis

Modarres Ch. 3

8 9

Midterm Earned Value Management

-PMBOK Ch. 6, 7

10

Risk Modelling and Simulation

Modarres Ch. 4

11

Building Mitigation Plans; Decision Tree and Expected Monetary Value Calculations Communicating and Managing Risks

Modarres Ch. 8

12 13 14

Closing Risks and the PMI PMP-RMP certification Final Case Presentation

Modarres Ch. 7, 9

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Ranked Risks Risk Register with CostFactored Risks -PERT Analysis on Risk Register Risk drivers that may impact CPI/ SPI At least one mitigation plans per identified risk Decision trees for identified risks Risk stakeholder register --