What is a density surface model?

Why model abundance spatially? Use non-designed surveys Use environmental information Maps

Back to Horvitz-Thompson estimation

Horvitz-Thompson-like estimators Rescale the (ﬂat) density and extrapolate n

s study area i ∑ N^ = covered area i=1 p^i si are group/cluster sizes p^i is the detection probability (from detection function)

Hidden in this formula is a simple assumption Probability of sampling every point in the study area is equal Is this true? Sometimes. If (and only if) the design is randomised

Many faces of randomisation

Randomisation & coverage probability H-T equation above assumes even coverage (or you can estimate)

Extra information

Extra information - depth

Extra information - depth NB this only shows segments where counts > 0

Extra information - SST

Extra information - SST (only segments where counts > 0)

You should model that

Modelling outputs Abundance and uncertainty Arbitrary areas Numeric values Maps Extrapolation (with caution!) Covariate effects count/sample as function of covars

Modelling requirements Include detectability Account for effort Flexible/interpretable effects Predictions over an arbitrary area

Accounting for effort

Effort Have transects Variation in counts and covars along them Want a sample unit w/ minimal variation “Segments”: chunks of effort

Chopping up transects

Physeter catodon by Noah Schlottman

Flexible, interpretable effects

Smooth response

Explicit spatial effects

Predictions

Predictions over an arbitrary area Don't want to be restricted to predict on segments Predict within survey area Extrapolate outside (with caution) Working on a grid of cells

Detection information

Including detection information Two options: adjust areas to account for effective effort use Horvitz-Thompson estimates as response

Effective effort Area of each segment, Aj use Aj p^j

^ = wp^) think effective strip width (μ Response is counts per segment “Adjusting for effort” “Count model”

Estimated abundance Estimate H-T abundance per segment Effort is area of each segment “Estimated abundance” per segment

n ^j =

i in segment j

si p^i

Detectability and covariates 2 covariate “levels” in detection function “Observer”/“observation” – change within segment “Segment” – change between segments “Count model” only lets us use segment-level covariates “Estimated abundance” lets us use either

When to use each approach? Generally “nicer” to adjust effort Keep response (counts) close to what was observed Unless you want observation-level covariates These can make a big difference!

Availability, perception bias and more p^ is not always simple! Availability & perception bias somehow enter We can make explicit models for this More later in the course

DSM flow diagram

Spatial models

Abundance as a function of covariates Two approaches to model abundance Explicit spatial models When: good coverage, ﬁxed area “Habitat” models (no explicit spatial terms) When: poorer coverage, extrapolation We'll cover both approaches here

Data requirements

What do we need? Need to “link” data Distance data/detection function Segment data Observation data to link segments to detections

Example of spatial data in QGIS

Recap Model counts or estimated abundace The effort is accounted for differently Flexible models are good Incorporate detectability 2 tables + detection function needed

## effective effort - GitHub

These can make a big difference! ... Need to âlinkâ data. Distance data/detection function. Segment data. Observation data to link segments to detections ...

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