Coal Mining Sector Russia November 2013

Produced by:

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Table of Contents I. Sector Overview

III. Coal Market

1. Sector Highlights 2. Economic Importance 3. Main Sector Indicators 4. Main Coal Basins 5. PPI 6. Average Producer Prices 7. CPI 8. IPI 9. Foreign Trade 10.Employment and Wages 11.Government Policy

1. 2. 3. 4.

II. Coal Production and Consumption

1. Coal Output by Region 2. Regional Distribution (2012)

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

Coal Reserves Worldwide Biggest Coal Producing Countries and Companies Biggest Russian Producers and Exporters Best Performing Russian Coal Producers

IV. Main Players 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

SUEK Mechel Evraz Ruscoal Severstal

V. Regional Distribution

Coal Production Highlights Coal Output Coal Consumption and Supply Highlights Coal Consumption Thermal (Steam) Coal Coking Coal and Metallurgical Coal Highlights Biggest Coking Coal Producing Countries and Companies Coking Coal and Metallurgical Coal Production Lignite and Brown Coal

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I. Sector Overview

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Reserves The biggest coal reserves in the world can be found in the U.S., Russia, China and India. China, whose reserves according to PWC will run out in 35 years at the current production levels, might lose its position as a major producer, but Russia is estimated to have 500 years of remaining reserves, and the U.S. – 250 years. Russia has 193.3 bn tonnes proven reserves of coal and 4.451 bn tonnes of prognosed coal reserves, which on a global scale corresponds to 12% and 30%, respectively. Its proven reserves include brown coal (101.2 bn tonnes), bituminous coal (85.3 bn tonnes, of which 39.8bn tonnes are coking coal) and anthracite coal (6.8 bn tonnes). The country’s coal reserves are widely dispersed and coal mining is now carried out in 25 regions and 16 coal basins. The bulk of coal deposits is in Siberia (64%) and the Far East (30%). The European part of the country and Urals account for 6% of the coal deposits.

Production Coal mining is carried out in 121 open-pit and 85 underground mines with a total annual production capacity of about 383 mn tonnes. Coal in Russia is currently mined primarily by open-pit mining (65%) due to its relatively lower production costs. The 2012, coal output amounted to 353 mn tonnes, up by 4.7% on the year. The coal supplies increased by 3.1% to 316 mn tonnes, of which 127 mn tonnes in exports (up by 19%). As a result of restructuring in the coal industry and the privatisation of coal assets, the entire sector is in private hands. As much as 78% of the sector is controlled by the 11 biggest mining companies and 5 steel smelters.

Consumption The main consumers of coal in Russia are the utilities and the metal processing industry. Coal is one of the major energy resources with a 14% share of the nation's energy consumption. This figure is projected to rise in line with the government’s intentions to shift power production towards coal-fired plants and thus free up natural gas for exports. Russia relies on domestic steel production to meet the internal demand, and therefore, the self-supply with ore and coke is extremely important. Also, most of the Russian coke is being produced directly with its direct consumers, the steel mills.

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Economic Importance Economic importance of coal mining sector 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

PPI

125.1

93.0

113.9

116.7

112.0

105.1

PPI of mining and quarrying

152.3

61.6

149.2

117.1

126.3

109.3

PPI of energy producing material mining

158.1

57.8

161.0

116.1

128.1

110.5

Coal exports, USD mn

5,354.7

7,751.8

7,367.1

9,180.5

11,373.3

13,015.1

Coal imports, USD mn

466.7

885.3

465.7

483.4

402.2

818.5

FDI total, USD mn

27,797.0

27,027.0

15,906.0

13,810.0

18,415.0

18,666.0

FDI in mining and quarrying, USD mn

13,933.2

4,978.7

3,174.8

2,034.9

4,627.0

3,529.1

FDI in energy producing materials, USD mn

13,669.7

4,644.8

2,798.7

1,755.2

3,896.9

2,740.5

Gross domestic product , RUB bn

33,247.5

41,276.8

38,807.2

46,308.5

55,799.6

62,599.1

GDP: gross value added (GVA) , RUB bn

28,484.5

35,182.7

33,831.3

40,040.1

47,505.5

53,284.5

2,865.5

3,284.6

2,885.4

3,842.8

5,157.3

5,801.4

GDP: annual: GVA: mining and quarrying , RUB bn Source: Statistics office, Federal Customs Office, CEIC

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Main Sector Indicators Mining and quarrying value, RUB bn Energy producing materials Mining, excl nergy producing materials Total 5,119

7,714 7,720

2007

4,882 4,356

525

595

489

6,746 5,246

4,524

3,886

Mining except energy producing materials 11.5%

8,723

5,995

4,374

Revenue breakdown per subsector

2008

2009

749

2010

969

2011

Energy producing materials 88.5%

1,003

2012

Main sector indicators, mn tonnes 1988

2000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

425.4

257.9

328.9

3026

323.4

334.7

352.7

- open-pit mining

178.7

167

224

195.2

220.9

235.8

255.1

- underground mining

246.7

90.9

104.9

107.4

102.1

100.9

99.6

Stocks

-

190.4

191.4

176

790.6

188.3

194.2

Domestic power demand

-

103.3

98.8

91.6

95.9

95.8

96.3

Total mining

Source: Statistics office, CEIC, Coal Age Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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Main Coal Basins Coal production, mn tonnes Resources (bn tonnes) A+B+ C1*

C2*

Mining in 2012 (mn tonnes)

Kansk-Achinsk (Krasnoyarsk brown and 79.4 Territory, black Kemerovo region)

38.8

41.1

6-15

0.3-1

12.6-17.7

Kuznetsk or Kuzbass (Kemerovo area)

brown and 51.5 black

1.7

201.5

10-16

0.3-0.8

22.8-29.8

Irkutsk (Irkutsk region)

brown and 7.6 black

4.6

14.2

7-15

1.5-5

17.6-22.6

Pechora (Komi Republic)

brown and 7.2 black

0.48

13.6

8.5-25

0.5-1

18.1-26.7

Donetsk (Rostov region)

brown and 6.6 black

3.1

4.7

10.5-29 1.8-4.2

Coal basin

Coal types

South Yakutia (Republic of Sakha)

black

4.5

2.8

9.2

MINUSA (Republic of Khakassia)

black

5

0.35

12.3

Ash Heating Sulfur content capacity (%) (%) (micro joule/kg)

10-18

0.3-0.5

6.6-29.7 0.5-0.6

18.5-20.1

22-37.4

18-32

*Note: Russia divides mineral concentrations into seven categories, in three major groups, based on the level of exploration performed: fully explored reserves or resources (A, B, C1), evaluated reserves or resources (C2) and prognostic resources (P1, P2, P3).

 Coal mining development is concentrated in the main coal basins – Kuznetsk and Kansko-Achinsk. New deposits that will be subject to further development are located in Eastern Siberia and the Far East (Urgalskoye, Elegestskoye, Elginskoye, Apsatskoye deposits) alongside with the main coal basins. If economically feasible, coal mining can be developed at Seidinskoye (the Republic of Komi) and Sosvinskoye (the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area – Yugra) deposits, as well as in the Bering coal basin (the Chukot Autonomous Area). The energy strategy also envisages the construction of required port infrastructure (the ports of Vostochny, Vanino and Ust-Luga, the Murmansk deep-water port) and construction of new ports with high-capacity coal terminals, including ports on the Black Sea coast, and, should the economic efficiency be proved, on the North Pacific coast.  The Pechora basin spans over an area of some 90 thousand sq km near the northern Ural Mountains in a region with severe climate, which results in 85% of the basin being under permafrost. It is being developed as an underground mine. In addition to being a significant reserve, the basin is also close to markets.  The Kuznetsk Basin has an area of 26.7 thousand sq km and is located near Novosibirsk. There are both open-pit and underground mines, from which a variety of coals with variable ash content and low sulphur content are being extracted.  The Kansk-Achinsk Basin contains significant deposits of brown (sub-bituminous) coal with medium-to-low ash content and generally low sulphur content. Some of the mines ate connected with power stations and carbo-chemical plants.

Source: Coal Age, Energy Strategy 2030, World Energy Council Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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PPI PPI, prev month=100

PPI, same month, prev year=100 250

125 115

200

105

150

95

100

85

50

75

0

Mining and quarrying

Total

Energy producing materials

Mining and quarrying

Energy producing materials

PPI, prev Dec=100 155.0 135.0 115.0

158 152 125 116

95.0

161 149 136 114 93

75.0

133 128 126

127 117 117 116

112

89

110 109 105 94

2007

2008

Mining and quarrying Energy producing materials Coal

62 58

55.0

Total

2009

2010

2011

2012

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Average Producer Prices Coal, RUB/tonne

Bituminous coal, RUB/tonne

1,200

1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

1,000 800 600 400 200 0

Coking coal, RUB/tonne

Brown coal, RUB/tonne 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000

1,500 1,000 500 0

Source: Statistics office, CEIC Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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CPI CPI for coal, prev month=100 108 106 104 102 100 98 96

CPI for coal, same month prev year=100 130 125 120 115 110

105 100

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IPI IPI in mining and quarrying, prev month=100 115 110 105 100 95 90

IPI, 1991=100

121.7 117.4

117.6

105.6

123.3

103.6 103.1

103.3

124.8

102.7

118.0

101.9 108.8

105.2

IPI, prev year=100

110.8

101.3

112.0 100.4 100.1

105.0

101.2 101.1

100.4 99.4

2007

2008 2009 Mining and quarrying

2007

2010 2011 2012 Energy producing materials

2008 2009 Mining and quarrying

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2010 2011 2012 Energy producing materials

Foreign Trade Coal exports volume and value

Coal imports volume and value 13,015.1 885.3

11,373.3

818.5

9,180.5

5,354.7 98.0

7,751.8

7,367.1

97.4

105.1

115.7

30.9

466.7 23.4

130.4

110.5

483.4

465.7 23.8

402.2

21.4

14.8 1.7

2007

2008

2009

2010

Volume, mn tonnes

2011

2012

2007

2008

Value, USD mn

2010

Volume, mn tonnes

Exports by destination

thou tonnes

2009

2011

2012

Value, USD mn

Imports by destination

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

11,169

13,869

8,342

13,084

10,462

11,565

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

23,249

29,917

23,762

14,063

117

20,361

USD mn

436

656

450

332

18

590

thou tonnes

192

998

51

707

1,568

1,007

31

230

16

151

384

229

thou tonnes

CIS

CIS USD mn thou tonnes

787

1,428

86,824

83,571

593

1,150

1,407

1,411

96,801 102,602 100,010 118,844

Non-CIS

Non-CIS USD mn

4,567

6,324

6,774

8,031

9,966

USD mn

11,604

Source: Federal Customs Agency, CEIC Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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Employment and Wages Number of employees 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Mining and quarrying

974,526

975,753

914,739

897,873

917,314

935,110

Energy producing materials

619,418

621,799

590,477

579,210

588,442

598,975

Coal and Peat

197,552

190,802

173,238

166,524

168,111

168,276

193,276

186,570

169,217

162,728

164,984

165,176

166,412

161,887

147,396

142,124

144,820

145,537

26,864

24,683

21,821

20,604

20,164

19,639

4,277

4,232

4,024

3,796

3,129

3,103

- Coal - Bituminous - Brown - Peat

Average monthly wage, RUB 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Mining and quarrying

28,108

33,206

35,363

39,895

45,132

50,401

Energy producing materials

33,276

39,051

41,568

46,271

51,588

57,210

Coal and Peat

18,397

22,574

23,172

27,067

32,251

35,697

18,628

22,866

23,486

27,415

32,611

36,094

- Bituminous

19,301

23,584

23,945

28,018

33,365

36,943

- Brown

14,456

18,157

20,386

23,254

27,196

29,803

7,959

9,706

9,964

12,149

13,224

14,564

- Coal

- Peat Source: Statistics office, CEIC

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2030 development programme

Transportation

Modernisation

In January 2012 , the government adopted a long-term programme for development of coal industry until 2030. The document, which was prepared by the energy ministry, consists of eight sub-programmes and encompasses the related existing federal programmes and sectoral strategies into one complex strategy. The implementation of the programme relies heavily on public-private partnerships, as the state’s participation in its RUB 3.7tn budget is less than 9 % or RUB 251.8bm. The programme suggests that by 2030 coal production will increase to 430 mn tonnes as a result of the increase in productivity and new coal extraction equipment. The programme also tackles one of the main price factors in a country with a vast geography such as Russia, planning measures to reduce transportation costs and improve the efficiency of coal supplies. As a result, the average of coal transportation is projected to decrease 1.2 times, including in the domestic market – by 1.4 times. Some of the measures include boosting the local use of mined coal, the construction of power plants with integrated utilisation of energy resources, especially coal and methane. Considering the trends in the formation of new centers of coal mining , coal production will shift towards the eastern part of the country, especially Eastern Siberia, whose share in coal share in coal mining is expected to increase from 25.8 % to 32% and the Far East – from 9.7% to 15.2 %. With China slowly turning into a net importer of China, Russia will also secure supplies to this potentially significant market.

Another major goal of the programme is putting an end to the use of obsolete equipment and technologies. The government will demand from new coal production facilities to have modern enrichment equipment in order to boost enrichment level in coal to 60% from the current 40%. The programme also sets as a goal that 80% of the mined coal pass through some sort of processing.

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Stages of implementation:  1st stage – 2011-2015  2nd stage – 2016-2020  3rd stage – 2021-2030

II. Coal Production and Consumption

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Coal Production Highlights

Soviet heritage

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian coal production narrowed 425 mn tonnes in 1988 to 232 mn tonnes in 1998. A recovery occurred in no earlier than 2003, when the output stood at 329 mn tonnes, which were followed by output dynamics in both directions.

Current situation

Currently, coal mining is carried out in 25 regions of the Russian Federation and 16 coal basins. Regardless of its sizeable reserves, Russia produces a relatively low amount of coal. In 2012, it amounted to 353 mn tonnes, up by 4.7% on the year. The coal supplies increased by 3.1% to 316 mn tonnes, of which 127 mn tonnes in exports (up by 19%).

Producers

As a result of restructuring in the coal industry and the privatisation of coal assets, the entire sector is being controlled by joint stock companies with private ownership. These changes resulted in the formation of a number of large corporations and holding companies, in ownership of coal assets. Also, all coking coal producers are integrated in metallurgical producers. Regarding the sector’s consolidation, the largest 16 mining coal mining companies account for 78 % of the total coal output in the country, including five steel smelters.

Risks

The country’s energy strategy singles out the following trends in the coal sector: depletion of the potential for development of existing coal basins in the European part of the country and in the Urals; slowing down of the rates of new coal deposits development; increase in coal mining and transportation costs; reduction in domestic demand for thermal coal; dependence of coal companies on the amount of export revenues; high share of transport costs in the price of coal products; low quality of coal products as compared with the world level; insufficient rates of fixed assets renovation and investment for large-scale infrastructure projects.

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Coal Output Coal production, mn tonnes 321.7 313.8

328.6

301.2

6.8%

4.7%

Coal production, mtoe 354.3

334.8

1.9% 153.4

148.0

2009

142.1

151.1

158.0

168.1

2010

2011

2012

-7.4%

-8.3%

2008

4.6%

3.7%

4.1%

1.3%

2007

6.4%

6.3%

5.8%

2010

Coal production, mn tonnes

2011

2007

2012

2008

2009

Coal production, mtoe

Change y/y, %

Change y/y, %

Coal production by type, mn tonnes 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Hard coal*

240.1

245.2

267.7

275.0

282.4

n/a

- Bituminous coal

238.6

240.3

229.2

240.8

257.3

275.8

n/a

n/a

n/a

6.8

10.1

11.2

Lignite coal**

n/a

82.5

68.8

76.4

76.9

77.8

Enriched coal

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

140.6

121.1

Coking coal

69.1

64.7

60.6

67.0

64.7

71.5

Metallurgical coke

33.9

32.0

27.4

27.0

27.0

27.1

- Anthracite coal

Source: Statistics office, CEIC, Coal Age, BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013, *EIA, **D&B Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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Coal Consumption and Supply Highlights

Power generation

Coal is one of the major energy resources in Russia’s power generation sector with about 14% share of the nation's energy consumption. Its role is expected to increase with the support of the government, whose strategy for the coal sector development until 2030 envisages an increase in coal production and the construction of coal-fired plants, which will free up natural gas for exports. Russia’s energy matrix varies between regions. Siberia and the Far East rely heavily on coal-fired power utilities (about half of electricity production), while in the European part and the Urals, electricity and heating come mostly from gas. In addition to the energy sector, the other main consumer of coal is the metal processing sector.

Transportation

Russia intends to upgrade its port and railway infrastructure in the Far East in order to boost coal exports to Asia. The uneven distribution of coal deposits and the location of many of them far from markets resulted in transportation making up 60% of the cost of coal. This burden makes the otherwise cheaper to produce Russian coal, a more expensive and, therefore, a less competitive export item. In order to deal with this issue, the country is undertaking measures to encourage the local use of coal at its production location and also plans to expand its transportation infrastructure to support exports, particularly to the east.

Exports

Russian coal is mainly exported via two terminals: Nakhodka (Eastern port) and Saint-Petersburg (port Ust-Luga). According to senior analyst with the Veles Capital investment company, Ayrat Khalikov, the main bottlenecks for Russian coal exports to Asia are the capacities of the railway transportation and of the ports.

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Coal Consumption Coal consumption, mn tonnes 8.8%

7.7%

190.5 -1.6%

205.2

Coal consumption, mtoe 100.4

93.4

200.3

184.1

198.3 -1.0%

7.4%

91.9

90.2

93.7

93.9

3.8%

188.2

0.2%

-5.1%

-1.8%

-3.3%

-10.3%

-8.4%

2007

2008

2009

2010

Coal consumption, mn tonnes

2011

2012

2007

2008 2009 2010 Coal consumption, mtoe

Change, %

Coal consumption breakdown by users

12.7%

13.1%

12.5%

12.0%

19.2%

20.9%

19.5%

19.6%

48.6%

48.0%

51.4%

48.6%

12.9%

2009

2010

2011

18.9%

17.9%

16.7%

Others 177,889

Households and agriculture

169,128

16.5%

16.0%

15.5%

163,651

165,603

163,659

196,286

Metallurgy Power utilities

2008

2012

Electricity production from coal sources

19.8%

51.4%

2011 Change y/y, %

2006

2012

2007 2008 2009 Electricity production, GWh

Source: Dun & Bradstreet, EIA, BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013, World Bank, CEIC Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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2010 % of total

2011

Thermal (Steam) Coal Top 10 steam coal producing countries, mn tonnes (2012e) China USA India Indonesia South Africa Russia Russia Australia Kazakhstan Colombia Poland

Thermal coal production in Russia in 2012 Sibuglmet 1% RusskiyUgol SDS Coal 8% 3% Evraz 1%

3,039

782 504

Mechel 3%

440 258 200 108

85 68

SUEK 34%

Thermal coal consumption, mn metric tonnes 293 259 224 191

Others 36%

Kuzbassrazrez ugol 14%

201

189

4 4

3

4

25

30

26

23

137

132

2008

2010

6

36

37 18

38

201

 Thermal coal accounts for the bigger portion of Russia’s coal reserves – 3,641.9bn tonnes or 89%, Promishlenie Vedomosti estimated.  According to Russia’s biggest coal producer SUEK, the domestic market of thermal coal in 2012 was determined by the soaring exports and the weaker domestic demand.  The favourable situation on the foreign markets, the exports of thermal coal increased by 12.1 mn tonnes, or 12%.  However, the unusually warm winter in 2011/2012 resulted in a lower demand from the domestic utilities.

312 11 40

16

14

232

247

2025f

2030f

Other Industry Utilities

20 164

Comments

Power

Total 2015f

2020f

Source: World Coal Association, SUEK, Russian Coal Market Research Institute INCRU Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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Coking Coal and Metallurgical Coal Highlights

Internal demand

As much as 447.1bn tonnes or 11% of Russia’s prognosed coal reserves are coking coal. The country exports less than 30% of the output with its largest foreign consumer being Ukraine. The reasons for the low exports volumes are the deficit in Russia’s own coking coal production – it suffered from a temporary decline in steel production during the crisis, caused by a serious fall in the demand for steel producers from the construction, automotive and machine building industries, according to Alexander Ignatov, president of market researcher Ignatov & Company Group.

Steel industry demands

Russia relies on domestic steel production to meet the internal demand, and therefore, the self-supply with ore and coke is extremely important. Also, most of the Russian coke is being produced directly with its direct consumers, the steel mills.

Main producers

Capacities

The Russian market of metallurgical coke has more than a dozen manufacturers. The market leaders are: CMI, Mechel, NLMK, Severstal MC Industrial Metallurgical Holding and Eurasia. The six biggest steel producers in the country currently control ¾ of the coking coal output and almost 100% of iron ore output, Ignatov said.

The major coking coal exporting countries expanded their new capacities in 2012. Russia raised its capacities by 13% to 16 mn tonnes, coal miner Evraz said in its annual report. Other major expansions took place in Australia (up by 8% to 144 mn tonnes) and North America (up by 5% to 95 mn tonnes).

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Biggest Coking Coal Producing Countries and Companies Top 10 coking coal producers, mn tonnes (2012e) China Australia USA Russia Russia India Canada Mongolia Ukraine Kazakhstan Poland

Share of coking coal exports (2012 )

510

Mongolia 5%

147

Russia 6%

81 75

Australia 49%

Others 8%

47

31 21 18 13

North America 32%

12

Share of coking coal imports, mn tonnes (2012)

Top 10 coking coal exporters, mn tonnes (2012)

China 18%

BMA Teck Alpha Natural Resources Anglo American Mechel BHP Billiton Peabody Walter Energy Rio Tinto Xstrata

EU-27 14% Others 22%

India 13%

Japan, S.Korea and Taiwan 29%

Total exports: 294mn tonnes

Total imports: 278mn tonnes

Source: World Coal Association, Evraz Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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38 25 18 18 15 13 13 12 11

11

Coking Coal and Metallurgical Coal Production Coking coal output in Russia, mn tonnes

Top 10 metallurgical coke producers by reserves, mn metric tonnes BMA Mechel Evraz Vale Alpha Natural Resources Rio Tinto Teck JSW Anglo American Peabody

71.5

69.1 67.0 64.7

64.7 60.6

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Biggest coking coal producers in Russia

2,541 1,938 1,602 1,361 1,271 1,034 896 895

526

Top 10 metallurgical coke producers by output, mn metric tonnes (2012) BMA Teck Alpha Natural Resources Anglo American Mechel BHP Billiton Peabody Walter Energy Rio Tinto Xstrata

Severstal 9% Kuzbassrazrez Yakutugol 9% ugol 8% Yuzhny Sibuglmet 10% Kuzbass 8% Yuzhkuzbassu gol 7%

Others 42%

3,357

Raspadskya 7%

Source: Statistics office, CEIC, Evraz, World Coal Association, Ignatov & Company Group, MetCoke Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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38

25 18 18 15 13 13 12 11 11

Lignite and Brown Coal Lignite coal production, mn tonnes

Share of electricity from brown coal by company (May 2012) Others, 22.5%

82.5 76.9

76.4

Siberian Generating Co, 12.7%

77.8

Ogk-2, 12.7%

68.8

E.ON Russia, 13.8%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Brown coal producers, mn tonnes Germany Russia Australia USA Turkey Poland Greece India Czech Republic Serbia

Gazprom, 14.2%

Fortum (formerly Energopromsbyt TGC-10), 5.7% , 4.8% Kuzbassenergo (TGC-12), 4.60% En+ Group, 3.7% Ogk-3 (third Generation Co), 2.20% Inter RAO UES, 0.80% RAO Energy Quadra-PGC, Systems of the 0.60% East, 24.1%

Comments 185

78

 According to the U.S. government’s Energy Information Agency, Russia's power sector includes over 440 thermal power plants, of which 77 are coal-fired.T  here are o official statistics about the number of power plants in Russia that run on brown coal, but researches show they are about 25.

73 72 66 64 62 43 43 38

Total production: 905mn tonnes

Source: D&B, World Coal Association, TU Delft Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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III. Coal Market

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Coal Reserves Worldwide Proven recoverable coal reserves according to International Energy Agency

Proven recoverable reserves according to World Energy Council, mn tonnes (end-2011)

Bituminous including anthracite

Subbituminous

Lignite

Total

37,100

2,100

37,200

76,400

n/a

6,630

n/a

6,630

3,474

872

2,236

6,582

62,200

33,700

18,600

114,500

Colombia

6,746

n/a

n/a

6,746

Germany

48

n/a

40,500

40,548

Greece

n/a

n/a

3,020

3,020

56,100

n/a

4,500

60,600

n/a

28,017

n/a

28,017

21,500

n/a

12,100

33,600

Poland

4,178

n/a

1,287

5,465

Russia

49,088

97,472

10,450

157,010

1

10

13,400

13,411

30,156

n/a

n/a

30,156

322

n/a

8,380

8,702

15,351

16,577

1,945

33,873

USA

108,501

98,618

30,176

237,295

Total world

403,197

287,333

201,000

891,530

Australia Brazil Canada China

India Indonesia Kazakhstan

Serbia South Africa Turkey Ukraine

Hard Coal

Brown Coal

Total Coal

18,322

54,820

73,142

218,818

35,614

254,432

OECD Pacific

41,477

38,033

79,510

Russia

69,946

91,607

161,553

China

167,000

25,000

192,000

India

95,399

467

95,866

Rest of Asia

10,283

10,664

20,947

South America

19,769

124

19,893

Africa / Middle East

52,846

202

53,048

736,112

283,184

1,019,296

OECD Europe OECD North America

Total world

Source: World Energy Council, IEA Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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Biggest Coal Producing Countries and Companies Top 10 coal producing countries, mn tonnes (2012e) China USA India Indonesia Australia Russia Russia South Africa Germany Poland Kazakhstan

Biggest coal producers worldwide, mn tonnes Shenhua Coal India Peabody Energy Chin Coal Arch Coal Datong Alpha BHP Billiton Anglo American SUEK

3,549 935 595 443 421 359 259 197 144

Total coal production worldwide: 7,830 mn tones

126

Top coal exporters (2012e) Coking

Total

Indonesia

380

3

383

Australia

159

142

301

Russia

116

18

134

USA

51

63

114

Colombia

82

0

82

South Africa

74

0

74

4

436.0 248.5 176.0 140.7

133.0 110.5 106.9 99.3 97.5

Biggest companies by sales worldwide, mn tonnes

Steam

Canada

470.0

31

Xstrata BHP Billiton Bumi Resources Glencore Anglo American Rio Tinto Peabody Energy SUEK Adaro Banpu

35

Source: World Coal Association, SUEK Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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76.0 72.7 69.3 61.0 52.4 50.6 41.0 38.8 36.5 32.8

Biggest Russian Producers and Exporters Biggest Russian companies by output, mn tonnes

Coal production in Russia in 2012

Kuzbassrazrez ugol 45.4

Sibuglmet 3% Evraz 5%

SDS Coal 23.4

Ruscoal 3% Severstal 3%

SDS Coal 6% Others 33%

Mechel 7%

Mechel 24.2 SUEK 97.5

Kuzbassrazrez ugol 13% Others 130.8

SUEK 27%

Market shares of Russian companies by exports volume

Comments

Kuzbassrazrez ugol 20%

SDS Coal 13%

SUEK 29%

Russia’s biggest coal producer is SUEK with 27.5% of coal output. It is also the country’s biggest coal exporter with 38.8mn tonnes sold abroad, which corresponds to a 27.6% market share.

Mechel 8%

Others 30%

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Best Performing Russian Coal Producers Top 15 coal producers by sales revenue in 2012, USD mn IFRS or RAS

2011

2012

2012/ 2011

1 SUEK

RAS

2,074

2,217

68.7%

2 Kuzbassrazrezugol

RAS

1,135

1,764

3 SUEK-Kuzbass

RAS

1,324

4 Sibuglemet

RAS

5 Southern Kuzbass (Mechel)

Top 15 coal producers by net income in 2012, USD mn IFRS or RAS

2011

2012

2012/ 2011

1 SUEK

RAS

579

581

100.4%

106.9%

2 Kuzbassrazrezugol

RAS

281

324

115.5%

1,083

155.5%

3 Yakutugol (Mechel)

RAS

447

222

49.6%

1,480

1,052

81.8%

4 SUEK-Krasnoyarsk

IFRS

8

172

2257.6%

RAS

1,198

983

71.1%

5 Mezhdurechye (Sibuglemet)

RAS

197

142

72.1%

6 Vorkutaugol (Severstal)

RAS

1,153

955

82.0%

6 SUEK-Kuzbass

RAS

172

122

70.9%

7 Yuzhkuzbassugol (Evraz)

RAS

812

768

82.9%

7 Vorkutaugol (Severstal)

RAS

378

94

24.9%

8 Kuzbass Fuel Company

IFRS

1,177

742

94.7%

8 Southern Kuzbass (Mechel)

RAS

479

94

19.5%

9 Yakutugol (Mechel)

RAS

788

584

63.0%

9 Kuzbass Fuel Company

IFRS

69

60

87.5%

10 Belon (MMK)

RAS

354

567

74.1%

10 Sibuglemet

RAS

283

37

13.1%

11 SUEK-Krasnoyarsk

IFRS

723

542

160.3%

11 Yuzhkuzbassugol (Evraz)

RAS

343

13

3.8%

12 Raspadskaya

IFRS

638

531

75.0%

12 Russian Coal

RAS

35

9

24.5%

13 Zarechnaya Mine

RAS

528

468

83.2%

13 Belon (MMK)

RAS

62

0.3

0.4%

14 Russian Coal

RAS

415

375

88.7%

14 Zarechnaya Mine

RAS

4

-13

-

15 Mezhdurechye (Sibuglemet)

RAS

2,074

2,217

90.3%

15 Raspadskaya (Evraz)

IFRS

136

-31

-

Company

Company

Source: Dun & Bradstreet, The SPARK Database, Interfax-CNA’s analysis Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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IV. Main Players

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SUEK Financial performance (RUB bn)

-10.64

2008

2009

Siberian Coal Energy Company (SUEK) is Russia's largest coal company (among top 10 worldwide) with a 27.5% share (92.2 mn tonnes) in Russian total coal production, covers 41% of thermal coal demand from the domestic energy generation industry and a 28% share in Russian thermal coal exports in 2011.

24.87

2010 Revenue

30.02

131.20

3.63

115.96

175.21

167.01

9.05

148.98

Highlights

2011

SUEK runs 29 mines (17 open-pit and 12 underground mines), 7 preparation plants, a bulk terminal at the Vanino port, and other industrial transportation and maintenance facilities. The company has 30,000 employees.

2012

Net profit

SUEK enterprises produced 97.5 mn tonnes of coal in 2012, which represented an increase of 5.3 mn tonnes (6%) compared to 2011. A substantial part of SUEK’s production in 2012 (approximately 62%) was hard coal; while the production of brown coal accounted for 38%.

Key operating indicators, tonnes 2010

2011

2012

Sales

90.4

88.9

91.7

Domestic sales

61.3

55.2

52.9

Export sales

29.1

33.7

38.8

Production

89.1

92.2

97.5

Hard coal

49.6

53.9

60.2

Brown coal

39.5

38.3

37.3

8.0

10.1

12.0

Transhipment in Vanino Bulk Terminal

In the next five years, the company intends to increase its production of high-quality coal for both domestic and export markets through boosting the capacity of existing mines and open-pits, and with the concurrent development of transportation infrastructure. Total investments in coal production and preparation and in transportation infrastructure are expected to average USD 650mn per year in the 2013-2017 period.

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Mechel Financial performance (USD bn)

Highlights

12.541

11.275

9.951

9.747

 Mechel OAO, founded in 2003, is a mining and metallurgy company, operating in Russia, the U.S., Kazakhstan and Lithuania.  The company comprised some 30 production enterprises, producing coal, iron ore, steel, rolled products, ferroalloys, heat and electric power. The holding company also owns three trade ports, transport operators and international sales and service networks. The company has a staff of over 80,000 persons.  Mechel’s mining segment (Mechel Mining) includes production and sales of coking coal concentrate, iron ore concentrate and coke, which are chief raw material for production of steel and steam coal. Apart from providing for the needs of the steel and power segments, it also sells raw materials to third-parties.  The Group controls 25% of Russia’s coking coal washing facilities. In 2012 the company produced 27.8 mn tonnes of coal.

2009

2010

1.229

0.076 2011

2012

-1.665

2008

0.692

0.803

5.754

Net revenues

Net income

Key operating indicators, thou tonnes FY 2011

FY 2012

27,625

27,763

Pig iron

3,728

4,161

Steel

6,118

6,532

Coal (run-of-mine)

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Evraz Financial performance (USD bn)

Highlights

19.990 16.400 13.394

14.726

2009

2010 Revenues

2011

2012

-0.335

2008

 Evraz, established in 1992 under the name Evrazmetall, is a vertically integrated steel, mining and vanadium business with operations in Russia, Ukraine, the U.S., Canada, the Czech Republic, Italy and South Africa. It employs about 110,000 persons.  A significant portion of the company's internal consumption of iron ore and coking coal is covered by its mining operations.  Raw coking coal production increased to 8.5 mn tonnes (up by 35%) as a result of operational efficiencies, while steam coal output declined to 2.3 mn tonnes (down by 23%).  The group is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the FTSE 250.

0.453

0.470

0.195

3.632

9.505

Net profit

Coal products sales volumes, kt

Intersegment

8,595 203 1,215

652

3,163

External

Coking coal concentrate Coking coal

3,285

1,560

Steam coal concentrate Steam coal

1,439 597 729 702

1,209 222 987 2011

Steam coal concentrate Steam coal

7,566

36

2012

Coking coal concentrate Coking coal 162

Total

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Ruscoal Financial performance (RUS bn) 15.503

Highlights 14.088

 Anthracite producer Russian Coal, established in 2002, operates 6 open-cut mines and а coal enriching facility, and is also active in the fields of energy supply, transport enterprises and repair services. Its main producing assets are located in Kemerovo, Amur and the Republic of Khakassia. The company’s payroll numbers 4 thousand persons.  In the beginning of 2013, the company estimated its total reserves – at 444.3 mn tonnes and its ultimate reserves at 313.8 mn tonnes.  Russian Coal, which says it ranked 11th among Russia’s coal producers in 2012, mined 10 mn tonnes of coal that year, mostly anthracite. As much as 8.1 mn tonnes of them were extracted through the opencut method and the company plans to boost this amount by 4% on the year in 2013. The exports amounted to 1.3 mn tonnes.

2010

-0.213

2009

2011

Revenues

0.261

0.197

1.038

5.937

4.951

2012

Net profit

Revenue breakdown, RUS bn 2011 Rostov

3.37

Coal

2.51

2012

2011

2012

2.05

Domestic market

1.17

1.35

1.68

Exports

0.75

0.22

Domestic market

1.41

1.24

Inventories

0.22

0.29

Exports

1.11

0.44

Khakassia

6.58

6.54

Inventories

0.86

0.36

Coal

6.23

6.21

Amur

3.38

3.48

Domestic market

3.16

2.70

Coal

2.85

3.01

Exports

3.07

3.52

Domestic market

2.85

3.01

Inventories

0.35

0.33 0.07

Inventories

0.54

0.47

Krassnoyarsk

Kuzbass

2.13

1.86

Coal

0.07

1.57

Domestic market

0.07

Coal

1.92

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Severstal Financial performance – consolidated (USD bn)

14.104

Highlights  Severstal is one of the world’s leading vertically integrated steel and steel related mining companies.  The company has assets in Russia, the U.S., Ukraine, Latvia, Poland, Italy, Liberia as well as investments in Brazil. The company has about 63 thousand employees.  Severstal has 3 divisions: Severstal Russian Steel, Severstal International and Severstal Resources.  Severstal’s Russian steel operations are almost all self-sufficient in iron ore and coking coal, respectively. Severstal Resources is the group’s producer of iron ore and coal. Severstal’s mining division was formed by acquisitions made over the last 12 years. It comprises two iron ore integrated works (Karelian Pellet and Olkon), coal companies located in the North-West of Russia (Vorkutaugol) and in the U.S. (PBS Coals), an iron ore exploration project in Liberia (Severstal Liberia Iron Ore), and a research institute (SPb-Giproshakht).  Severstal’s key asset is Cherepovets Steel Mill, an integrated steel plant with coking coal, agglomeration, blast furnaces, steel-smelting and rolling facilities.  Severstal is listed on MICEX/RTS and its GDRs are traded on the LSE

16.066

15.812 12.819

2008

2009

2010 Revenues

2011

2.062

-1.100

-0.515

0.820

2.174

9.076

2012

Net profit

Coal resources and sales 2011

2012

Crude steel Hot metal Sales volumes, tonnes

15,293,407 10,543,687

15,140,185 10,256,881

Severstal Resources Coal:

Production, tonnes

10,634,866

10,479,136

Coking coal concentrate, including:

7,591,670

7,513,436

Vorkutaugol PBS Coals Raw coking coal, Vorkutaugol Steam coal, including:

5,127,440 2,464,229 289,556 2,753,640

5,267,442 2,245,993 622,318 2,343,382

Vorkutaugol

2,028,358

2,191,132

725,283

152,251

PBS Coals

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V. Regional Distribution

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Coal Output by Region Coal mining breakdown by regions, thou tonnes Coal mining - Central Federal District (CF) - North Western Federal District (NW) - Southern Federal District from 2010 (SF) - Volga Region Federal District (VR) - Ural Federal District (UF) - Siberian Federal District (SB) - Far East Federal District (FE) Bituminous coal - North Western Federal District (NW) - Southern Federal District from 2010 (SF) - Far East Federal District (FE) Anthracite coal - Southern Federal District from 2010 (SF) - Siberian Federal District (SB) - Far East Federal District (FE) Coking coal - North Western Federal District (NW) - Siberian Federal District (SB) - Far East Federal District (FE) Brown coal - Central Federal District (CF) - Volga Region Federal District (VR) - Ural Federal District (UF) - Siberian Federal District (SB) - Far East Federal District (FE) Enriched coal - North Western Federal District (NW) - Southern Federal District from 2010 (SF) - Ural Federal District (UF) - Siberian Federal District (SB) - Far East Federal District (FE) Metallurgical coke - Central Federal District (CF) - North Western Federal District (NW) - Volga Region Federal District (VR) - Ural Federal District (UF) - Siberian Federal District (SB)

2007 313,787 299 12,956 7,398 534 3,459 256,953 32,188 238,561 12,956 0 17,695

2008 328,554 360 12,929 7,081 515 3,354 271,982 32,333 240,256 12,953 0 17,930

2009 301,227 201 11,799 4,938 312 2,023 254,134 27,820 229,154 11,800 0 12,979

2010 321,701 235 13,625 4,725 387 2,154 268,902 31,673 240,787 13,626 4,721 16,694

2011 334,831 259 13,494 5,281 318 2,401 280,865 32,213 257,266 13,340 5,282 16,727

2012 354,330 226 13,631 5,633 492 2,328 297,126 34,894 275,795 13,640 5,633 20,655

n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a

n/a n/a n/a

4,721 2,086 n/a

5,282 4,803 n/a

5,633 5,684 334

10,032 53,445 6,647 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 33,910 5,255 4,631 2,347 10,946 10,732

9,891 47,987 7,821 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 32,017 4,889 4,227 2,345 9,985 10,571

9,338 48,245 3,150 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 27,424 3,361 3,884 1,976 9,024 9,179

10,820 48,669 7,524 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 27,042 3,191 3,396 2,127 9,050 9,198

10,698 47,602 6,448 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 140,613 7,623 4,099 863 119,768 8,260 27,011 3,159 3,427 2,163 9,156 9,105

11,562 51,928 9,093 35,928 203 385 1,930 48,140 12,111 121,098 5,114 4,228 730 98,860 9,127 27,101 2,985 3,501 1,775 9,513 9,233

Source: Statistics office, CEIC Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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Regional Distribution (2012)

Central District Coal mining – 226 thou tonnes Brown coal – 203 thou tonnes Metallurgical coke – 2,985 thou tonnes

Northwestern District Coal mining - 13,631 thou tonnes Bituminous coal - 13,640 thou tonnes Coking coal - 11,562 thou tonnes Enriched coal - 5,114 thou tonnes Metallurgical coke - 3,501 thou tonnes

Siberian District Coal mining - 297,126 thou tonnes Anthracite - 5,684 thou tonnes Coking coal - 51,928 thou tonnes Brown coal - 48,140 thou tonnes Enriched coal - 98,860 thou tonnes Metallurgical coke - 9,233 thou tonnes

Southern District Coal mining - 5,633 thou tonnes Bituminous coal - 5,633 thou tonnes Anthracite - 5,633 thou tonnes Enriched coal - 4,228 thou tonnes

Far Eastern District Coal mining - 34,894 thou tonnes Bituminous coal - 20,655 thou tonnes Anthracite - 334 thou tonnes Coking coal - 9,093 thou tonnes Brown coal - 12,111 thou tonnes Enriched coal - 9,127 thou tonnes

North Caucasian District -

Volga District Coal mining – 492 thou tonnes Brown coal - 385 thou tonnes Metallurgical coke - 1,775 thou tonnes

Urals District Coal mining - 2,328 thou tonnes Brown coal - 1,930 thou tonnes Enriched coal - 730 thou tonnes Metallurgical coke - 9,513 thou tonnes

Source: Statistics office, CEIC (data), Wikipedia (map) Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 on 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. DownloadPDF. Copyright © 2013 Internet Securities, Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved. Downloaded by us-pwc-site from 164.143.240.34 at 2014-06-27 11:55:44 EDT. ISI Emerging Markets.

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Emerging Markets Insight - Russia Coal Mining Sector Report.pdf ...

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