EMPLOYMENT FLUCTUATIONS IN A DUAL LABOR MARKET James Costain, Juan F. Jimeno and Carlos Thomas

Documentos de Trabajo N.º 1013

2010

EMPLOYMENT FLUCTUATIONS IN A DUAL LABOR MARKET

EMPLOYMENT FLUCTUATIONS IN A DUAL LABOR MARKET

James Costain, Juan F. Jimeno and Carlos Thomas BANCO DE ESPAÑA

Documentos de Trabajo. N.º 1013 2010

The Working Paper Series seeks to disseminate original research in economics and finance. All papers have been anonymously refereed. By publishing these papers, the Banco de España aims to contribute to economic analysis and, in particular, to knowledge of the Spanish economy and its international environment. The opinions and analyses in the Working Paper Series are the responsibility of the authors and, therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem.

The Banco de España disseminates its main reports and most of its publications via the INTERNET at the following website: http://www.bde.es.

Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. © BANCO DE ESPAÑA, Madrid, 2010 ISSN: 0213-2710 (print) ISSN: 1579-8666 (on line) Depósito legal: M. 19682-2010 Unidad de Publicaciones, Banco de España

Abstract

In light of the huge cross-country differences in job losses during the recent crisis, we study how labor market duality – meaning the coexistence of “temporary” contracts with low firing costs and “permanent” contracts with high firing costs – affects labor market volatility. In a model of job creation and destruction based on Mortensen and Pissarides (1994), we show that a labor market with these two contract types is more volatile than an otherwiseidentical economy with a single contract type. Calibrating our model to Spain, we find that unemployment fluctuates 21% more under duality than it would in a unified economy with the same average firing cost, and 33% more than it would in a unified economy with the same average unemployment rate. In our setup, employment grows gradually in booms, due to matching frictions, whereas the onset of a recession causes a burst of firing of “fragile” low-productivity jobs. Unlike permanent jobs, some newly-created temporary jobs are already near the firing margin, which makes temporary jobs more likely to be fragile and means they play a disproportionate role in employment fluctuations. Unifying the labor market makes all jobs behave more like the permanent component of the dual economy, and therefore decreases volatility. Unfortunately, it also raises unemployment; to avoid this, unification must be accompanied by a decrease in the average level of firing costs. Finally, we confirm that factors like unemployment benefits and wage rigidity also have a large, interacting effect on labor market volatility; in particular, higher unemployment benefits increase the impact of duality on volatility. Keywords: Firing costs, temporary jobs, unemployment volatility, matching model, endogenous separation. JEL classification: E32, J42, J63, J64, J65.

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

Surplus functions 10 9 8

SP (z) ss

7

Surplus

6

STss(z)

5 4 3 2 1 0 0.95

RP ss

RTss

1

1.05

RC ss

1.1

1.15

1.2

Match productivity z

Cumulative distribution function 1 0.9

Probability G(z)

0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0.95

RP ss

RTss

1

1.05

RC ss

1.1

1.15

1.2

Match productivity z

;9GD7  +F736K EF3F7 EGDB>GE 8G@5F;A@E 3@6 6;EFD;4GF;A@ 8G@5F;A@

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

0.09 0.08

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0.28 0.27 0.26

2

2.5

3

4.5

0.6 0.58 2

0.4

G(RP ) ss

0.5

0.45

0.8 0.75 0.7

3

3.5

4

4.5

2

2.5

3

0.38 0.37 0.36

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

F 0.045 0.04 0.035 0.03

2

2.5

3

3.5 F

3.5

4

4

4.5

0.14

2

2.5

3

10

3.5

4

4.5

F

-3

x 10

8 6 4

2

2.5

3

3.5 F

4.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

3.5

4

4.5

3.5

4

4.5

F

0.16

0.12

4

0.2 0.1

4.5

0.18

Perm separation rate

0.4 0.39

3.5

0.3

F

Job finding rate

F

4

4.5

Average productivity Promotion rate

2.5

3 F

0.85

0.5

2.5

F

0.55

2

q(ss)

4

0.62

0.9

0.4

Temp separation rate

3.5

0.64

0.6

G(RC ) ss

G(RTss)

F

0.3 0.29

Perm employment

0.1

Temp employment

Unemployment

0.11

low  baseline  high 

0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01

2

2.5

3 F

1.15

1.1

1.05

2

2.5

3 F

;9GD7  A?B3D3F;H7 EF3F;5E MD;@9 5AEF

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

0.08 15

20

25 1/ 

30

35

20

25 1/ 

30

35

0.6 0.55 0.5 15 0.4 0.35

25 1/ 

30

0.38 0.37 0.36 15

20

25 1/ 

30

35

0.045 0.04 0.035 0.03 0.025 15

20

25 1/ 

30

35

0.77 0.76 15

35

Job finding rate

20

0.78

20

25 1/ 

30

0.17 0.16 0.15

15

20 -3

10

x 10

25 1/ 

30

35

9 8 7 15

20

25 1/ 

30

35

20

25 1/ 

30

35

20

25 1/ 

30

35

20

25 1/ 

30

35

20

25 1/ 

30

35

0.3 0.25 0.2 15

35

Average productivity Promotion rate

0.5 0.45

G(RP ) ss

0.8 0.79

G(RC ) ss

0.6

0.39

q(ss)

0.2 15

0.7 0.65

0.55

0.4 15

Temp separation rate

0.3 0.25

Perm employment

0.09

Temp employment

0.1

0.4 0.35

Perm separation rate

Unemployment G(RTss)

0.11

low  baseline  high 

0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01 15 1.14 1.12 1.1 1.08 15

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

1

4

0.5

3.5 3

-0.5 -1

% of labor force

% of labor force

0

permanent jobs temporary jobs

unemployment vacancies

-1.5 -2 -2.5

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5

-3 -3.5

0

-4

-0.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

2

4

6

8

quarters

1

14

16

18

20

-0.05

0.6

% of labor force

% of labor force

12

0

job creation promotions

0.8

0.4 0.2 0

-0.1

-0.15

-0.2

destruction of temporary jobs destruction of permanent jobs

-0.2 -0.4

10

quarters

0

2

4

6

8

10

quarters

12

14

16

18

20

-0.25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

7

1

unemployment vacancies

6

0

% of labor force

% of labor force

5 4 3 2

-1

permanent jobs temporary jobs

-2

-3

1 -4 0 -1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

-5

20

0

2

4

6

8

quarters

1.4

12

14

16

18

20

4

job creation promotions

1.2

destruction of temporary jobs destruction of permanent jobs

3.5 3

% of labor force

1

% of labor force

10

quarters

0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5

-0.2

0

-0.4

-0.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

quarters

12

14

16

18

20

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

Employment stocks 4

% of labor force

2 0 -2

Perm jobs Temp jobs

-4 -6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

160

180

200

180

200

Quarters Employment flows

% of labor force

5 Job creation Temp destruction Perm destruction Recession begins Expansion begins

4 3 2 1 0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Quarters Log of average productivity % deviation from mean

1 Perm productivity Temp productivity Average productivity

0.5

0

-0.5

-1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Quarters

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

 

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

Stocks of "fragile" jobs in a boom 4

fragile permanent jobs fragile temporary jobs fragile jobs (single contract)

3.5

3

% of labor force

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

quarters

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

Employment stock 2

% of labor force

1 0 -1

Employment

-2 -3 -4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

160

180

200

180

200

Quarters Employment flows 7

% of labor force

6

Job destruction Job creation Recession begins Expansion begins

5 4 3 2 1 0 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Quarters Log of average productivity % deviation from mean

0.4 0.3 0.2 Average productivity

0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Quarters

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Volatility of the single contract as function of firing costs 1.2

Volatility of dual market

Std dev of unemployment (% of labor force)

1.1

1

Same total F 0.9

Same average F

Same unemployment

Same F as perm

0.8

0.7

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Firing costs in single contract

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,:;E D3F:7D 6D3?3F;5 5:3@97 ;@ F:7 47:3H;AD A8 F:7 E;@9>75A@FD35F ?3D=7F ;E 53GE76 4K 3 5:3@97 ;@ ;@ F:7 AD67D A8 F:7 F:D7E:A>6E AD >3D97   I7 =@AI F:3F F:7 :;9:7EF 67EFDG5F;A@ F:D7E:A>6   >;7E 47>AI F:7 >AI7EF 5D73F;A@ F:D7E:A>6   EA @7I>K :;D76 7 GF 3E  3BBDA35:7E L7DA F:7 67EFDG5F;A@ F:D7E:A>6E 5A@H7D97 FAI3D6E F:7 5D73F;A@ F:D7E:A>6E ,:7D78AD7 8AD EGS5;7@F>K E?3>> 4GF BAE;F;H7   F:7 AD67D A8 F:7 F:D7E:A>6E 5:3@97E FA        /;F: F:;E AD67D;@9 ?3F5:7E I;F: BDA6G5F;H;FK ;@ F:7 57@FD3> ;@F7DH3>     3D7 :;D76 ;@ 4AA?E 4GF MD76 I:7@ D757EE;A@E 3DD;H7 !@ AF:7D IAD6E     ;E 3@ ;@F7DH3> ;@ I:;5: @7I>K5D73F76 7 /;F: F:;E AD67D;@9 A8 D7E7DH3F;A@ F:D7E:A>6E 8D39;>7 3F7 ?G5: ?AD7 D3B;6>K >34AD ?3D=7F Volatility of the single contract as function of firing costs 0.8

0.75

Std dev of unemployment (% of labor force)

0.7

0.65

0.6

0.55

0.5

0.45

0.4

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Firing costs in single contract

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DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1013

BANCO DE ESPAÑA PUBLICATIONS

WORKING PAPERS 1 0901 PRAVEEN KUJAL AND JUAN RUIZ: International trade policy towards monopoly and oligopoly. 0902 CATIA BATISTA, AITOR LACUESTA AND PEDRO VICENTE: Micro evidence of the brain gain hypothesis: The case of Cape Verde. 0903 MARGARITA RUBIO: Fixed and variable-rate mortgages, business cycles and monetary policy. 0904 MARIO IZQUIERDO, AITOR LACUESTA AND RAQUEL VEGAS: Assimilation of immigrants in Spain: A longitudinal analysis. 0905 ÁNGEL ESTRADA: The mark-ups in the Spanish economy: international comparison and recent evolution. 0906 RICARDO GIMENO AND JOSÉ MANUEL MARQUÉS: Extraction of financial market expectations about inflation and interest rates from a liquid market. 0907 LAURA HOSPIDO: Job changes and individual-job specific wage dynamics. 0908 M.a DE LOS LLANOS MATEA AND JUAN S. MORA: La evolución de la regulación del comercio minorista en España y sus implicaciones macroeconómicas. 0909 JAVIER MENCÍA AND ENRIQUE SENTANA: Multivariate location-scale mixtures of normals and mean-varianceskewness portfolio allocation. 0910 ALICIA GARCÍA-HERRERO, SERGIO GAVILÁ AND DANIEL SANTABÁRBARA: What explains the low profitability of Chinese banks? 0911 JAVIER MENCÍA: Assessing the risk-return trade-off in loans portfolios. 0912 MAXIMO CAMACHO AND GABRIEL PEREZ-QUIROS: Ñ-STING: España Short Term INdicator of Growth. 0913 RAQUEL VEGAS, ISABEL ARGIMÓN, MARTA BOTELLA AND CLARA I. GONZÁLEZ: Retirement behaviour and retirement incentives in Spain. 0914 FEDERICO CINGANO, MARCO LEONARDI, JULIÁN MESSINA AND GIOVANNI PICA: The effect of employment protection legislation and financial market imperfections on investment: Evidence from a firm-level panel of EU countries. 0915 JOSÉ MANUEL CAMPA AND IGNACIO HERNANDO: Cash, access to credit, and value creation in M&As. 0916 MARGARITA RUBIO: Housing market heterogeneity in a monetary union. 0917 MAXIMO CAMACHO, GABRIEL PEREZ-QUIROS AND HUGO RODRÍGUEZ MENDIZÁBAL: High-growth Recoveries, Inventories and the Great Moderation. 0918 KAI CHRISTOFFEL, JAMES COSTAIN, GREGORY DE WALQUE, KEITH KUESTER, TOBIAS LINZERT, STEPHEN MILLARD AND OLIVIER PIERRARD: Wage, inflation and employment dynamics with labour market matching. 0919 JESÚS VÁZQUEZ, RAMÓN MARÍA-DOLORES AND JUAN-MIGUEL LONDOÑO: On the informational role of term structure in the U.S. monetary policy rule. 0920 PALOMA LÓPEZ-GARCÍA AND SERGIO PUENTE: What makes a high-growth firm? A probit analysis using Spanish firm-level data. 0921 FABIO CANOVA, MATTEO CICCARELLI AND EVA ORTEGA: Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe. 0922 GALO NUÑO: Technology, convergence and business cycles. 0923 FRANCISCO DE CASTRO AND JOSÉ LUIS FERNÁNDEZ: The relationship between public and private saving in Spain: does Ricardian equivalence hold? 0924 GONZALO FERNÁNDEZ-DE-CÓRDOBA, JAVIER J. PÉREZ AND JOSÉ L. TORRES: Public and private sector wages interactions in a general equilibrium model. 0925 ÁNGEL ESTRADA AND JOSÉ MANUEL MONTERO: R&D investment and endogenous growth: a SVAR approach. 0926 JUANA ALEDO, FERNANDO GARCÍA-MARTÍNEZ AND JUAN M. MARÍN DIAZARAQUE: Firm-specific factors influencing the selection of accounting options provided by the IFRS: Empirical evidence from Spanish market. 0927 JAVIER ANDRÉS, SAMUEL HURTADO, EVA ORTEGA AND CARLOS THOMAS: Spain in the euro: a general equilibrium analysis. 0928 MAX GILLMAN AND ANTON NAKOV: Monetary effects on nominal oil prices.

1. Previously published Working Papers are listed in the Banco de España publications catalogue.

0929 JAVIER MENCÍA AND ENRIQUE SENTANA: Distributional tests in multivariate dynamic models with Normal and Student t innovations. 0930 JOAN PAREDES, PABLO BURRIEL, FRANCISCO DE CASTRO, DANIEL GARROTE, ESTHER GORDO AND JAVIER J. PÉREZ: Fiscal policy shocks in the euro area and the US: an empirical assessment. 0931 TERESA LEAL, DIEGO J. PEDREGAL AND JAVIER J. PÉREZ: Short-term monitoring of the Spanish Government balance with mixed-frequencies models. 0932 ANTON NAKOV AND GALO NUÑO: Oilgopoly: a general equilibrium model of the oil-macroeconomy nexus. 0933 TERESA LEAL AND JAVIER J. PÉREZ: Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado. 0934 JAVIER J. PÉREZ AND A. JESÚS SÁNCHEZ: Is there a signalling role for public wages? Evidence for the euro area based on macro data. 0935 JOAN PAREDES, DIEGO J. PEDREGAL AND JAVIER J. PÉREZ: A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information. 1001 JAVIER ANDRÉS, ÓSCAR ARCE AND CARLOS THOMAS: Banking competition, collateral constraints and optimal monetary policy. 1002 CRISTINA BARCELÓ AND ERNESTO VILLANUEVA: The response of household wealth to the risk of losing the job: evidence from differences in firing costs. 1003 ALEXANDER KARAIVANOV, SONIA RUANO, JESÚS SAURINA AND ROBERT TOWNSEND: No bank, one bank, several banks: does it matter for investment? 1004 GABRIEL PEREZ-QUIROS AND HUGO RODRÍGUEZ MENDIZÁBAL: Asymmetric standing facilities: an unexploited monetary policy tool. 1005 GABRIEL JIMÉNEZ, JOSE A. LOPEZ AND JESÚS SAURINA: How does competition impact bank risk-taking? 1006 GIUSEPPE BERTOLA, AURELIJUS DABUSINSKAS, MARCO HOEBERICHTS, MARIO IZQUIERDO, CLAUDIA KWAPIL, JEREMI MONTORNÈS AND DANIEL RADOWSKI: Price, wage and employment response to shocks: evidence from the WDN Survey. 1007 JAVIER MENCÍA: Testing non-linear dependence in the Hedge Fund industry. 1008 ALFREDO MARTÍN-OLIVER: From proximity to distant banking: Spanish banks in the EMU. 1009 GALO NUÑO: Optimal research and development expenditure: a general equilibrium approach. 1010 LUIS J. ÁLVAREZ AND PABLO BURRIEL: Is a Calvo price setting model consistent with micro price data? 1011 JENS HAGENDORFF, IGNACIO HERNANDO, MARÍA J. NIETO AND LARRY D. WALL: What do premiums paid for bank M&As reflect? The case of the European Union. 1012 DAVID DE ANTONIO LIEDO: General Equilibrium Restrictions for Dynamic Factor Models. 1013 JAMES COSTAIN, JUAN F. JIMENO AND CARLOS THOMAS: Employment fluctuations in a dual labor market.

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