Eric J. Ward, Ph.D. email: [email protected] / [email protected]

Education Ph.D. Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington Committee: Ray Hilborn (chair), André Punt, Tim Essington


M.Sc. Biology, Montana State University (Bozeman) Advisor: Dan Goodman


B.S. Biology (Ecology, Behavior & Evolution), University of California San Diego 1995-1999

Employment Statistician - Research biologist, NOAA Math. Bio. & Conservation Genetics Affiliate associate professor, University of Washington (SAFS)

2009-pres 2013-pres

Post-doctoral researcher, NRC & NOAA Mathematical Biology 2007-2008 Developed frameworks for cumulative risk assessments of endangered species, capture recapture data, model averaging of hierarchical models, predator-prey models, evolutionary life history strategies, human disturbances, software development. Graduate RA, University of Washington


Field Trip Leader, University of Washington Biology 2003-2006 Field trips included introductory data collection, ornithology, conservation biology, marine biology. Stock Assessment Scientist, Wellington, New Zealand Spring 2005 Reviewed assessment models, conducted preliminary assessment of one of the most historically depleted orange roughy populations Graduate RA, Montana State University


Publications in Refereed Journals In Review D.L. Phillips, R. Inger, S. Bearhop, A.L. Jackson, J.W. Moore, A.C. Parnell, B.X. Semmens, E.J. Ward. Best practices for use of stable isotope mixing models in food web studies. In review Sergeant, C, J. Armstrong and E.J. Ward. Synchronized migration phenologies prevent trophic mismatch in a warming watershed. In review

Bjorkland, R.K., S. Pearson, S. Jeffries, M. Lance, A. Acevedo-Gutierrez, and E.J. Ward. Stable isotope mixing models elucidate sex and size effects on the diet of a generalist marine predator In review Westley, P.A.H., T.P. Quinn, A.H. Dittman, and E.J. Ward. Environmental, anthropogenic, and density-dependent influences on natal dispersal in an endangered Pacific salmon metapopulation.In review Bal, G., M.D. Scheuerell, and E.J. Ward. Using Bayesian model averaging to incorporate full parameter and model uncertainty into population models and risk analyses. In review Ward, E.J., J.H. Anderson, T.J. Beechie, G.R. Pess, and M.J. Ford. Increasing hydrologic variability threatens depleted anadromous fish populations . In review Marshall, K.N, A.C. Stier, J.F. Samhouri, and Ward, E.J.. Conservation challenges of predator recovery . In review Anlauf-Dunn, K., Ward, E.J., and M. Strickland. Habitat connectivity, complexity and quality: Predicting adult coho salmon occupancy and abundance. In review Ward, E.J., K.N. Marshall, and M.D. Scheuerell. Using hierarchical Bayesian LASSO regression for variable selection in large ecological datasets. In review Published 40. Chasco, B., Ward, E.J., Rabe, C., Orme, R., Kinzer, R., Vogel, J., Hesse, J., Kucera, P. Using state-space models to evaluate multiple survey methods: a case study for a threatened population of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in Johnson Creek, Idaho. North American Journal of Fisheries Management, In press 39. Shelton, A.O., J.T. Thorson, Ward, E.J., and B.E. Feist. 2014. Spatial, semi-parametric models improve estimates of species abundance and distribution. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, In press 38. Ward, E.J., E.E. Holmes, J.T. Thorson, and B. Collen. 2014. Complexity is costly: comparing parametric and non-parametric methods for short-term population forecasting. In press, Oikos. Selected for Editor’s Choice June 2014. 37. J.T. Thorson and Ward, E.J.. 2014. Accounting for vessel effects when standardizing catch rates from cooperative surveys. Fisheries Research, 155, 168-176. 36. Nosrati, K., G. Govers, B.X. Semmens, and E.J. Ward. 2014. A mixing model to study sediment fingerprinting based on uncertainty. Geoderma, 217-218: 173–180. 35. Bodey, T., Ward, E.J., R.A. Phillips, R.A.R. McGill, and S. Bearhop. 2014. Species versus Guild Level Differentiation Revealed Across the Annual Cycle by Isotopic Niche Examination. Journal of Animal Ecology, 83:470-478.

34. Thorson, J.T., Cope, J., Kleisner, K., Samhouri, J., Shelton, A., and Ward, E.J.. Giant shoulders 15 years later: Lessons, challenges, and guidelines in fisheries meta-analysis. Fish and Fisheries 33. Hampton, S.E., E.E. Holmes, D.E. Pendleton, L.P. Scheef, M.D. Scheuerell, and E.J. Ward. 2013. Quantifying effects of abiotic and biotic drivers on community dynamics with multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models. Ecology, 94(12):2663–2669. 32. B.X. Semmens, Ward, E.J., A.C. Parnell, D.L. Phillips, S. Bearhop, R. Inger, A.L. Jackson, and J.W. Moore. 2013. Statistical basis and outputs of stable isotope mixing models: Comment on Fry 2013 .Marine Ecology Progress Series, 490:285-289 31. M.B. Hanson, Candice Emmons, Ward, E.J., Jeffrey Nystuen, and Marc Lammers. 2013. Assessing the coastal occurrence of endangered killer whales using autonomous passive acoustic recorders. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 134(5):3486-3495 30. Parnell, A.C., D.L. Phillips, S. Bearhop, A.L. Jackson, B.X. Semmens, E.J. Ward, J.W. Moore, and R.L. Inger. 2013. Bayesian Stable Isotope Mixing Models. Environmetrics, 24(6): 387-399 29. Thorson, J.T. and E.J. Ward. 2013. Accounting for space-time interactions in index standardization models. Fisheries Research, 147:426-433 28. Holtgrieve, G.W., M.E. Arias, K.N. Irvine, E.J. Ward, M. Kummu, J. Koponen, and J.E. Richey. 2013. Ecosystem metabolism and support of freshwater capture fisheries in the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia. PLoS One, 8(8):e71395, p 1-11 27. Van Daele, M.B., Semmens, B.X., Ward, E.J., Van Daele, L.J., Leacock, W.B., Robbins, C.T. 2013. Salmon consumption by Kodiak brown bears (Ursus arctos middendorffi) with ecosystem management implications. Canadian Journal of Zoology,91:164-174 doi: 10.1139/cjz2012-0221 26. Westley, P., Ward, E.J., and I. Fleming. 2013. Fine-scale local adaptation in an invasive freshwater fish has evolved in contemporary time. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B., 280(751) doi: 10.1098/rspb.2012.2327 25. Ward, E.J., G.R. Pess, K. Anlauf-Dunn, and C.E. Jordan. 2012. Applying time series models with spatial correlation to identify the scale of variation in habitat metrics related to threatened coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Pacific Northwest. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 69(11): 1773-1782 doi:10.1139/f2012-096. 24. Ward, E.J., P.S. Levin, M.M. Lance, S.J. Jeffries, and A. Acevedo-Gutiérrez. 2012. Integrating diet and movement data to identify hot spots of predation risk and areas of conservation concern for endangered species. Conservation Letters, 5(1):27-37 dpi: 10.1111/j.1755263X.2011.00210.x 23. Holmes, E.E., Ward, E.J., and Wills, K. 2012. MARSS: multivariate autoregressive state-space models for analyzing time series data. R Journal, 4(1): 11-19.

22. Holtgrieve, G., D.E. Schindler, W.O. Hobbs, P.R. Leavitt, E.J. Ward, L. Bunting, G. Chen, B.P. Finney, I. Gregory-Eaves, S. Holmgren, M.J. Lisac, P.J. Lisi, K. Nydick, L.A. Rogers, J.E. Saros, D.T. Selbie, M.D. Shapley, P.B. Walsh, and A.P. Wolfe. 2011. A coherent signature of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition to remote watersheds of the Northern Hemisphere. Science, 16: 1545-1548 doi: 10.1126/science.1212267

21. Yeakel, J.D., Novak M., Guimarães Jr., P.R., Dominy, N.J., Koch, P.L., Ward, E.J., Moore, J.W., and B.X. Semmens. 2011. Merging resource availability with isotope mixing models: the role of neutral interaction assumptions. PLoS ONE, 6(7):e22015 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.002201 20. Anderson, J., Ward, E.J., and Carlson, S. 2011. A Model for Estimating the Minimum Number of Offspring to Sample in Studies of Reproductive Success. Journal of Heredity, 102 (5): 567-576. doi: 10.1093/jhered/esr060 19. Berntson, E.A., Carmichael, R.W., Flesher, M.W., Ward, E.J., and P. Moran. 2011. Pushing hatchery fish uphill: Diminished reproductive success complicates the use of hatchery supplementation in Snake River steelhead recovery. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 140(3):685-698. doi: 10.1080/00028487.2011.584489 18. Francis, T.B., Schindler, D.E., Holtgrieve, G.W., Larson, E., Scheurell, M.D., Semmens, B.X., and Ward, E.J.. 2011. Habitat structure and energetic support for zooplankton in temperate lakes. Ecology Letters, 14: 364-372. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01597.x 17. Ward, E.J.*, Semmens, B.X., Phillips, D.L., Moore, J.W., and Bouwes, N. 2011. A quantitative approach for grouping sources in stable isotope mixing models. Ecosphere, 2(2):art19. doi:10.1890/ES10-00190.1 * joint 1st authorship 16. Ward, E.J., Semmens, B.X., Holmes, E.E., and K.C. Balcomb. 2011. Effects of Multiple Levels of Social Organization on Survival and Abundance. Conservation Biology, 25:2(350-355) doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01600.x 15. Ward, E.J., Semmens, B.X., and D.E. Schindler. 2010. Including source uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of stable isotope mixing models. Environmental Science & Technology, 44(12): 4645-4650. doi:10.1021/es100053v 14. Williamson, K.S., Murdoch, A.R., Pearsons, T.N., Ward, E.J., and M.J. Ford. 2010. Factors influencing the relative fitness of hatchery and wild spring Chinook salmon in the Wenatchee River, Washington. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 67:18401851. 13. Warren, D.R., M.M. Mineau, Ward, E.J., and Kraft, C.E. 2010. Relating fish biomass to habitat and chemistry in headwater streams of the northeastern United States. Environmental Biology of Fishes, 88:51-62. doi:10.1007/s10641-010-9617-x 12. Ward, E.J. , H. Chirrakal, M. González-Suárez, D. Aurioles-Gamboa, E.E. Holmes, L. Gerber. 2010. Applying Multivariate-state-space Models to Detect Spatial clustering of California sea lions in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Journal of Applied Ecology, 47:47-56. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2009.01745.x. Recommended by Faculty of 1000 Biology

11. Semmens, B.X.*, E.J. Ward*, J.W. Moore, and C.T. Darimont. 2009. Quantifying inter- and intra-population niche variability using hierarchical Bayesian stable isotope mixing models. PLoS ONE 4(7): e6187. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0006187. * joint 1st authorship 10. Ward, E.J., E.E. Holmes, and K.C. Balcomb. 2009. Quantifying the effects of prey abundance on killer whale reproduction. Journal of Applied Ecology, 46(3):632-640. doi: 10.1111/j.13652664.2009.01647.x 9. Semmens, B.X., J. Moore, and Ward, E.J. 2009. Improving Bayesian Isotope Mixing Models: A response to Jackson et al. Ecology Letters, 12(3) E6-E8. doi: 10.1111/j.14610248.2009.01283.x 8. Ward, E.J., E.E. Holmes, K. Parsons, KC Balcomb, and JKB Ford. 2009. The role of menopause and reproductive senescence in a long-lived social mammal. Frontiers in Zoology, 6(4). doi:10.1186/1742-9994-6-4 7. Zerbini, A.N., Ward, E., Engel, M.E., Kinas, P.G. and Andriolo, A. 2009. A Bayesian Assessment of the Conservation Status of Humpback Whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the Western South Atlantic (Breeding Stock A). J. Cet Res. Manage., SC/58/SH02. 6. Ward, E., Zerbini, A.N., Engel, M.E., Kinas, P.G. and Andriolo, A. 2009. Estimates of population growth rates of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the wintering grounds off the coast of Brazil (Breeding Stock A). J. Cet Res. Manage., SC/58/SH14. 5. Ward, E.J. 2008. A review and comparison of four commonly used Bayesian and maximum likelihood model selection tools. Ecological Modelling, 211:1-10. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.10.030 4. Ward, E.J., R. Hilborn, R.G. Towell, and L. Gerber. 2007. A state-space mixture approach for estimating catastrophic events in time series data. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 64:899-910. 3. Ward, E.J. 2006. A new BEAST: Bayesian Software Tools for Ecological Trend Analysis. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 34:1420:1424. doi: 10.2193/0091-7648(2006)34[1420:ANBBST]2.0.CO;2 2. Branch, T., A. Haynie, R. Hilborn, G. Fay, L. Flynn, J. Griffiths, K. Marshall, J. Randall, J. Scheurell, E.J. Ward, and M. Young. 2006. Fleet dynamics and fishermen behavior: lessons for fisheries managers. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 63:1647-1668. 1. Ward, E.J. 2005. Differences between fishery-dependent and fishery-independent estimates of single-species and mixed-species dolphin schools: implications for single-species stock assessments. Marine Mammal Science, 21:189-203. In prep Marshall, K.N. and Ward, E.J.. Detecting change points in ecological models. Semmens, B.X. Y. Lucero, Y., Ward, E.J., and E.E. Holmes. Environmental and anthropogenic drivers to Basin wide patterns in Caribbean reef fish diversity.

Technical Reports E.J. Ward, M.J. Ford, R.G. Kope, J.K.B. Ford, A. Velez-Espino, C.K. Parken, L. LaVoy, M.B. Hanson, K.C. Balcomb. Estimating the impacts of Chinook salmon abundance and prey removal by ocean fishing on Southern Resident killer whale population dynamics. 2013. U.S. Dept. Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-NWFSC-123, 71 p. Stout, H.A., P.W. Lawson, D.L. Bottom, T.D. Cooney, M.J. Ford, C.E. Jordan, R.G. Kope, L.M. Kruzic, G.R. Pess, G.H. Reeves, M.D. Scheuerell, T.C. Wainwright, R.S. Waples, E.J. Ward, L.A. Weitkamp, J.G. Williams, and T.H. Williams. 2012. Scientific conclusions of the status review for Oregon coast coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). U.S. Dept. Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-NWFSC-118, 242 p. Northwest Fisheries Science Center. 2011. Risk assessment of U.S. West Coast groundfish fisheries to threatened and endangered marine species. NWFSC, NMFS. 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA.

Book Chapters E.J. Ward 2012. Population Dynamics. In Grzimek’s Animal Life Encyclopedia. pp. 195208.

Teaching Experience FISH 507B: Applied Time Series Analysis, University of Washington Winter 2012-2013 C o - t a u g h t c o u r s e w i t h E l i Ho l m e s a n d Ma r k S c h e u e r e l l . Course webpage: Co-instructor with E. Holmes and M. Scheuerell, Ecological Society of America (ESA) Analysis of Multivariate Time-Series Data Using State-Space Models.


R workshop (organized & taught), NWFSC


Co-instructor with E. Holmes, Ecological Society of America (ESA) Introduction to MARSS modeling and use of the MARSS package in R.


R workshop (organized & taught), NWFSC


Faculty appointment (visiting lecturer), University of Washington 2007-2009 Taught FSH 497 Introductory modeling and programming course. Full instructor responsibilities: curriculum, lectures, labs, grading, office hours. Instructor effectiveness: 4.8/5.0 R Workshop, Pacific Seabird Group meeting 2008 Organized and served as the instructor for a short course designed to introduce biologists to the R programming environment.

Co-instructor with E. Holmes and B. Semmens, Ecological Society of America (ESA) 2008 Analysis of Stochastic Time Series Data using State-Space Models and Kalman Filters. Responsibilities: co-developed course outline, lectures, software tools, and hands-on case studies using R software. Pre-doctoral Instructor, University of Washington 2006 Taught FSH 497 Introductory modeling and programming course. Full instructor responsibilities: curriculum, lectures, labs, grading, office hours. Instructor effectiveness: 4.9/5.0 Teaching Assistant, University of Washington 2006 TA for FSH 458: Modeling for Conservation of Populations (R. Hilborn). Responsibilities: labs, lectures, grading, office hours Introductory programming seminar, University of Washington 2005 Organized and led seminar (Matlab and R environments) for graduate students at the University of Washington.

Selected Presentations 2012. Challenges and complexities of managing multiple species in Puget Sound: seals, salmon, and killer whales. Invited department seminar, Western Washington University, Bellingham. 2011. Identifying spatial structure using multiple data sources: a case study of Puget Sound Chinook salmon. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society, Seattle, WA. 2010. Ecological sleuthing with stable isotopes: quantifiying the diet and niche width of individuals and populations. Invited department seminar, Memorial University, St Johns NL. 2010. Utilizing hierarchical models of individual movement to construct maps of spatial predation risk, 95th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. 2009. Using Bayesian multilevel models to detect social structure in presence-absence data, 94th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Albequerque, New Mexico. 2009. Revealing spatial population structure with time series data. Invited presentation, Canadian Statistical Society, June 02, Vancouver BC. 2008. Inferring population structure of Pacific harbor seals using multivariate state space models. 93rd Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Milwaukee, WI. 2008. Identifying spatial population structure with time series models. Invited presentation, SAFS Quantitative Seminar, University of Washington.

2008. Meta-analytic approaches for identifying hidden processes in ecological data. Invited presentation, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Aug 13th, Seattle, WA. 2007. Evaluating hypotheses about killer whale fecundity: model averaging suggests everything isn’t black and white. Northwest Regional Office (NOAA), Oct 29th, Seattle, WA. 2007. New Methods for Detecting Allee Effects. 92nd Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, San Jose, CA. 2006. New Methods For Incorporating Catastrophes Into Population Time Series. Southwest Fisheries Science Center, La Jolla, CA. 2005. Can Catastrophes be Included in Stock Assessments and PVAs? Invited presentation, SAFS Quantitative Seminar, University of Washington. 2005. Estimating Catastrophic Extinction with State Space Models. 90th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Montreal, Quebec. 2005. Ward, E.J. and A. Hicks. Assessment of the Challenger Plateau (ORH 7A) Orange Roughy Fishery for the 2004-2005 Fishing Year. Paper presented to DWWG 02/05. 2005. Robustness of Bayesian Model Selection Criteria / State Space Modeling of Catastrophic Events in Population Time Series. Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington. 2004. Approximate Bayes Factors in Biology. Annual Graduate Student Symposium, SAFS, University of Washington. 2004. Seeing Double: Differences Between Research and Tuna Vessel Sightings of Spotted Dolphins in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, 1980-2000. Society for Marine Mammalogy Northwest Regional Chapter. 2004. New Software for Detecting the Decline of Biological Populations. Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, Massachusetts. 2002. Model selection in a stochastic environment. 86th Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, Madison, Wisconsin.

External Funding 2013. M.B. Hanson, E.J. Ward. Modeling the distribution of endangered killer whales in Pacific Northwest Navy ranges using acoustic recorder detections and satellite tagged whales, US Navy. 2013. T. Eguchi, E.J. Ward, and E.E. Holmes. Developing risk assessment tools for marine sea turtles$50K. 2013. Holmes, E.E. and E.J. Ward. Developing web based computing tools for protected species. $100K.

2013. Shelton, A.O., E.J. Ward, J.T. Thorson, M. Bellman, B. Feist. Integrating spatial habitat and fisheries effort data to improve abundance estimates of west coast groundfish. $56K. 2011. E.J. Ward et al., Incorporating multiple data sources into a unified framework to improve estimates of adult salmon returns and population productivity. $33K. 2009. NSF Comparative Analysis of Marine Ecosystem Organization: ”New statistical tools for analyzing community dynamics with applications to marine zooplankton, $206K. Associate Investigator (Principal Investigator - E.E. Holmes)

Fellowships and Awards 2006. ”Cumulative Risk Assessment for Endangered Species”. 2 year NRC post-doc awarded, $92K. 2003. National Marine Fisheries Service / Washington Sea Grant Fellowship in Population Dynamics: ”Incorporating model selection and decision analysis into population dynamics modeling”. Grant awarded for $120K.

Supervised Post-docs 2012-2013. Guillaume Bal (NRC Research Post-doc). Co-supervised with Eli Holmes and Mark Scheuerell.

Graduate student committees 2012. Pam Moriarty (T. Essington), SAFS, University of Washington

Service and Outreach Puget Sound Seabird Survey (volunteer advisor) 2005-present Developed survey methodology for Puget Sound’s first land-based seabird survey (data collected entirely by citizen scientists), and oversaw data analysis. Orca Bowl 2010, Washington State Sea Grant / University of Washington Secretary & Treasurer, Statistical Ecology Section, Ecological Society of America 2010-2012

— Last updated: April 10, 2014

Eric J. Ward - vita

capture data, model averaging of hierarchical models, predator-prey models, ... comparing parametric and non-parametric methods for short-term population forecasting .... A new BEAST: Bayesian Software Tools for Ecological Trend Analysis.

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