2030 EU energy trends to 2030
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2008 UPDATE 2009
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EU energy trends to 2030 — UPDATE 2009
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Energy in collaboration with Climate Action DG and Mobility and Transport DG
This publication was prepared by the Institute of Communication and Computer Systems of the National Technical University of Athens (ICCS-NTUA), E3M-Lab, Greece, for the Directorate-General for Energy and the Directorate-General for Climate Action, and represents that organisation’s views on energy facts, figures and projections. These views have not been adopted or in any way approved by the Commission and should not be relied upon as a statement of the Commission’s or the DirectorateGeneral’s views. Authors (E3M-Lab): Prof. P. Capros, Dr. L. Mantzos, N. Tasios, A. De Vita, N. Kouvaritakis
Legal notice: The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof.
The manuscript was completed on 4 August 2010.
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[email protected] Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2010 ISBN 978-92-79-16191-9 doi:10.2833/21664 © European Union, 2010 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Printed in Belgium
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS & UNITS.......................................................................................................................................6 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................7 1.
INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 2009 Baseline ..........................................................................................................................................................................................10 Reference scenario................................................................................................................................................................................10
BASELINE 2009 ..........................................................................................................................................................11 2.
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................................................................................13 Macroeconomic and demographic Scenario .............................................................................................................................................................. 13 World Fossil Fuel Prices ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Policy assumptions............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Energy Technology Progress ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 20 Further assumptions ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Discount Rates .......................................................................................................................................................................................21 Degree days ............................................................................................................................................................................................21 Exchange rates........................................................................................................................................................................................21 3. RESULTS FOR THE BASELINE SCENARIO .............................................................................................................................................22 Short term trends to 2010 and 2015.......................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Economy ..................................................................................................................................................................................................22 Power sector ..........................................................................................................................................................................................22 Implications for Energy Consumption ........................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Impacts for Power Generation ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 27 Impacts on Primary Energy Supply ................................................................................................................................................................................ 30 Impacts on Emissions and RES Indicators................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 34 REFERENCE SCENARIO ..........................................................................................................................................35 4.
ASSUMPTIONS AND DRIVERS ...............................................................................................................................................................37
Policy assumptions............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37 Drivers ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 5. RESULTS FOR THE REFERENCE SCENARIO ..........................................................................................................................................39 Implications for Energy Consumption ........................................................................................................................................................................... 39 Impacts on Power Generation ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 42 Impacts on Primary Energy Supply ................................................................................................................................................................................ 45 Impacts on Emissions and RES Indicators................................................................................................................................................................... 46 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 48 6. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................................................................................................49 GLOSSARY..................................................................................................................................................................50 APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC AND MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS ...............................................53 APPENDIX 2A: SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCES AND INDICATORS .........................................................65 APPENDIX 2B: SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCES AND INDICATORS ...................................................... 123
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
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EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: INVENTORY OF LEGAL MEASURES AND COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SUPPORT INCLUDED IN THE BASELINE 2009 ...................... 17 TABLE 2: GHG EMISSION CHANGES FROM 2005 ............................................................................................................................................ 32 TABLE 3: INVENTORY OF LEGAL MEASURES AND COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SUPPORT INCLUDED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO .......... 37 TABLE 4: DETAILS ON GAS USE IN POWER GENERATION ............................................................................................................................. 44
4
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: GDP GROWTH ...................................................................................................................................................................................14 FIGURE 2: GDP GROWTH PER CAPITA .............................................................................................................................................................15 FIGURE 3: WORLD FOSSIL F UEL PRICES .............................................................................................................................................................16 FIGURE 4: RATIOS OF FOSSIL FUEL PRICES .........................................................................................................................................................16 FIGURE 5: ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN RELATION TO GDP ...........................................................................................24 FIGURE 6: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR ...............................................................................................................................................24 FIGURE 7: ENERGY SAVINGS IMPLIED IN BASELINE 2009 .................................................................................................................................25 FIGURE 8: ENERGY INTENSITY INDICATORS ......................................................................................................................................................25 FIGURE 9: USEFUL ENERGY IN THE SERVICES SECTOR ......................................................................................................................................26 FIGURE 10: IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION ....................................................................................................................................................26 FIGURE 11: IMPACTS ON DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY ......................................................................................................................................27 FIGURE 12: STRUCTURE OF POWER GENERATION ..........................................................................................................................................27 FIGURE 13: STRUCTURE OF RES POWER ...........................................................................................................................................................28 FIGURE 14: SHARE OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUEL BASED POWER GENERATION AND FOSSIL FUEL INPUT TO POWER GENERATION ...............29 FIGURE 15: CARBON INTENSITY AND OTHER INDICATORS FOR POWER GENERATION ...........................................................................29 FIGURE 16: IMPACTS ON COSTS AND PRICES OF ELECTRICITY ......................................................................................................................30 FIGURE 17: IMPACTS ON PRIMARY ENERGY ......................................................................................................................................................31 FIGURE 18: SHARES OF GAS IN ............................................................................................................................................................................31 FIGURE 19: CO2 EMISSIONS ................................................................................................................................................................................32 FIGURE 20: RES INDICATORS ..............................................................................................................................................................................33 FIGURE 21: ETS EMISSIONS AND ALLOWANCES (INCL. PERMISSIBLE USE OF INTERNATIONAL CREDITS) ..................................................38 FIGURE 22: ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN RELATION TO GDP ..............................................................................................40 FIGURE 23: ENERGY SAVINGS IMPLIED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO ...........................................................................................................40 FIGURE 24: IMPACTS ON PASSENGER AND FREIGHT TRANSPORT ..................................................................................................................41 FIGURE 25: IMPACTS ON ROAD TRANSPORTATION ........................................................................................................................................41 FIGURE 26: POWER GENERATION FROM RES ...................................................................................................................................................42 FIGURE 27: POWER GENERATION STRUCTURE ................................................................................................................................................42 FIGURE 28: CAPACITY EXPANSION ....................................................................................................................................................................43 FIGURE 29: SHARE OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUELS POWER GENERATION AND FOSSIL FUEL INPUT TO POWER GENERATION ........................43 FIGURE 30: CARBON INTENSITY AND OTHER INDICATORS FOR POWER GENERATION ...........................................................................44 FIGURE 31: IMPACTS ON COSTS AND PRICES OF ELECTRICITY ......................................................................................................................45 FIGURE 32: PRIMARY ENERGY REQUIREMENTS AND NET IMPORTS OF FOSSIL FUELS ..................................................................................45 FIGURE 33: SHARE OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUELS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOSSIL FUEL USE ..............................................................................46 FIGURE 34: CO2 EMISSIONS ................................................................................................................................................................................46 FIGURE 35: CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ..............................................................................................................................47 FIGURE 36: RES INDICATORS ..............................................................................................................................................................................47 FIGURE 37: DIRECT USE OF RES IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR ......................................................................................................................47
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
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EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
ABBREVIATIONS & UNITS
6
ACEA, JAMA, KAMA
Automobile Manufacturers Associations
bbl
Oil barrel
CCGT
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
bcm
Billion of cubic meters
CCS
Carbon capture and storage
boe
Barrel of oil equivalent
CDM/JI
Clean Development Mechanism - Joint Implementation
Gbl
Giga-barrels, or 109 barrels
CHP
Combined heat and power
GW
Giga Watt, or 109 watt
CIS
Commonwealth of Independent States
km
Kilometre
CNG
Compressed Natural Gas
Mb/d
Million barrels per day
COP
Coefficient of Performance
Mbl
Million barrels
DG
Directorate General
MEuro
Million Euro
DG CLIMA
Directorate General for Climate Action
Mt
Million metric tonnes
DG ECFIN
Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs
Mtoe
Million toe
DG ENER
Directorate General for Energy
MW
Mega Watt, or 106 watt
DG MOVE
Directorate General for Mobility and Transport
MWh
Mega Watt Hours, or 106 watt hours
DG TREN
Directorate General for Energy and Transport
pa
per annum
EU
European Union
pkm
Passenger-Kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one km)
EU ETS
Emission Trading Scheme
t (tons)
Metric tonne, or 1000 kilogrammes
EU-15
15 Member States of the European Union until 1 May 2004 (Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom).
toe
Tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule)
EU-27
27 Member States of European Union
TWh
Terra Watt-hour, or 1012 watt hours
EUROSTAT
Statistical Office of the European Communities
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GIC
Gross Inland Consumption
GTL
Gas to Liquids
IEA
International Energy Agency
IPPC
Integrated Pollution Prevention Control
LNG
Liquefied Natural Gas
LPG
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
NM-12
12 Member States that acceded to the EU in 2004 and 2007(Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia)
OECD
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
PV
Solar photovoltaic
R&D
Research and Development
RES
Renewable Energy Sources
SUV
Sport-utility vehicle
UN
United Nations
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
INTRODUCTION
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
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EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
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EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
1.
INTRODUCTION
Introduction
This report is an update of the previous trend scenarios, such as the ―European energy and transport Trends to 2030‖ published in 2003 and its 2005 and 2007 updates. Two scenarios, the Baseline 2009 (finalised in December 2009) and the Reference scenario (April 2010) are presented. The economic context has dramatically changed since the 2007 Baseline scenario. In autumn 2008 the EU and the global economy entered the steepest downturn on record since the 1930s. The energy intensive industries experienced considerable drops in their production, while energy and electricity demand displayed negative rates of change in 2009. The economic analysts, including official bodies such as the IMF, OECD and European Commission (DG ECFIN), published gloomy forecasts about economic activity and growth. Their medium term and sometimes long term economic outlooks have been drastically revised compared to 2007, in order to reflect significantly lower economic growth. In addition, legislation that will significantly affect energy demand and production has been adopted at both the EU (i.e. the Climate and Energy Package adopted in December 2008 and several energy efficiency measures adopted in 2008 and 2009) and the national levels. Both the crisis and the new legislation made imperative the conception of a new energy baseline scenario. The report was commissioned by Directorate General for Energy in collaboration with Directorate General for Climate Action and Directorate General for Mobility and Transport.
The scenarios were derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab), supported by some more specialised models (e.g. GEM-E3 model that has been used for projections for the value added by branch of activity and PROMETHEUS model that has been deployed for projections of world energy prices). The scenarios are available for the EU and each of its 27 Member States simulating the energy balances for future years under current trends and policies as implemented in the Member States by April 2009. The PRIMES model is a modelling system that simulates a market equilibrium solution for energy supply and demand in the EU27 and its Member States. The model determines the equilibrium by finding the prices of each energy form such that the quantity producers find best to supply matches the quantity consumers wish to use. The market equilibrium is for each time period and the simulation is dynamic over time. The model is behavioural but also represents in an explicit and detailed way the available energy demand and supply technologies and pollution abatement technologies. The system reflects considerations about market economics, industry structure, energy/environmental policies and regulation, which are conceived so as to influence market behaviour of energy system agents. The modular structure of PRIMES reflects a distribution of decision making among agents that act individually about their supply, demand, combined supply and demand, and prices. The market integrating part of PRIMES subsequently simulates market clearing. PRIMES is a general purpose model; it is conceived for projections to the future, scenario building and policy impact analysis. It covers a medium to long-term horizon. Its modular structure allows either for integrating model use or for partial use.
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
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EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
INTRODUCTION
2009 Baseline The Baseline scenario determines the development of the EU energy system under current trends and policies; it includes current trends on population and economic development including the recent economic downturn and takes into account the highly volatile energy import price environment of recent years. Economic decisions are driven by market forces and technology progress in the framework of concrete national and EU policies and measures implemented until April 2009. This includes the ETS and several energy efficiency measures but excludes the renewable energy target and the non-ETS targets. These assumptions together with the current statistical situation derived from the Eurostat energy balances represent the starting point for projections which are presented from 2010 onwards in 5 years' steps until 2030.
Reference scenario The Reference scenario is based on the same macroeconomic, price, technology and policy assumptions as the baseline. In addition to the measures reflected in the baseline, it includes policies adopted between April 2009 and December 2009 and assumes that national targets under the Renewables directive 2009/28/EC and the GHG Effort sharing decision 2009/406/EC are achieved in 2020. The Reference scenario, which includes the mandatory emission and energy targets set for 2020, can serve as a benchmark for policy scenarios with long term targets. All numbers included in this report, except otherwise stated, refer to European Union of 27 Member States.
The Baseline scenario benefited from the comments of Member States experts from the Energy Economic Analysts Group. Many comments and pieces of information communicated by the Member States were accommodated in revising the draft Baseline scenario, while preserving a harmonised approach to EU energy modelling. In addition to its role as a trend projection, the Baseline scenario is a benchmark for scenarios on alternative policy approaches or framework conditions (e.g. higher energy import prices, renewables and climate policies).
10
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
BASELINE 2009
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
11
BASELINE 2009
12
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
2.
Main Assumptions
Macroeconomic and demographic Scenario The energy Baseline scenario of 2007 reflected the optimistic economic growth outlook, prevailing in 2006 and 2007. The 2009 Baseline scenario builds on macro projections of GDP and population which are exogenous to the models used. They reflect the recent economic downturn, followed by sustained economic growth resuming after 2010. GDP projections for the short term (2009-2010) mirror economic forecasts from the European Commission, DG Economic and Financial Affairs (European Economy, May 2009), which complement the up to date statistics for 2005-2008 from Eurostat. The medium and long term growth projections follow the "baseline" scenario of the 2009 Ageing Report (European Economy, April 2009). The Baseline assumes that the recent economic crisis has long lasting effects leading to a permanent loss in GDP. The recovery from the crisis is not expected to be so vigorous that the current GDP losses will be compensated. Modelled growth prospects for 2011 and 2012 are also subdued in line with these trends at around 1% per year. However, economic recovery enables higher productivity gains, allowing somewhat faster growth rates from 2013 to 2015. After 2015, GDP growth rates mirror those of the 2009 Ageing Report. Hence the pattern of the baseline scenario is consistent with the intermediate scenario 2 "sluggish recovery" presented in the Europe 2020 strategy. However, given the recent juncture characterized by the financial and economic crisis, there remains uncertainty concerning the mediumterm economic developments. The average EU-27 growth rate for the period 2000-2010 is now only 1.2% per year, while the projected rate for 2010-2020 is recovering to 2.2%, similar to the historical average growth rate between 1990 and 2000. GDP in 2020 is thus significantly lower than assumed in the 2007 baseline. The population projections for EU27 are based on the EUROPOP2008 convergence scenario (EUROpean
BASELINE 2009
POpulation Projections, base year 2008) from Eurostat, which is also the basis for the 2009 Ageing Report. Population projections are higher compared to the 2007 PRIMES baseline due to different migration assumptions. These projections were used as an input to the multisector and multi-country general equilibrium model GEM-E3 to develop projections at sectoral level (i.e. gross value added by branch of activity) while ensuring consistency with the short and long term GDP and demographic projections of the European Commission (DG ECFIN). The macroeconomic scenario comprises numerical projections of GDP (volume), households’ income, population and sectoral activity (using gross value added in volume as a proxy) for 22 sectors, in each EU Member State. The 22 sectors are divided in 10 energy intensive industries, 6 non energy intensive industries, 3 service sectors, construction, agriculture and the energy supply sector (the value added of which is not used as input to the energy model). The results show the considerable economic downturn which started in autumn 2008. The reasoning behind the macroeconomic projection can be summarized as follows: 1. The financial crisis induced a marked deterioration of global economic prospects in the final quarter of 2008. The causes of the vicious recession spiral were the downturn in asset markets, the reduction in consumers and businesses confidence accompanied with increased uncertainty, and the resulting reduction in bank lending. 2. A credit rationing practice synchronized worldwide had a detrimental effect for emerging economies through reduction in global trade (credit facilitation to trade was dramatically decreased). Thus EU exports were negatively affected. 3. Credit rationing together with increased uncertainty resulted into a slowdown of private investment in all sectors and lowered households’ expenditures on durable goods and
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
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EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
higher growth rates compared to a similar projection carried out before the crisis. Despite this, a permanent loss of GDP and welfare is encountered when considering the entire period from 2008 to 2030.
14
17000
Real GDP (EU27)
billion EUR'05
19000
15000 13000
11000 Baseline 2009
9000
Baseline 2007
7000
5.0%
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
5000
% annual change of real GDP 2000; 3.9%
4.0%
2014; 3.4% 2015; 3.5%
2004; 2.5%
3.0%
2020; 2.1%
2.0% 1.0%
2005; 2.0%
0.0%
2010; 0.3%
-1.0%
-2.0%
Baseline 2009
-3.0%
Baseline 2007
-4.0%
2009; -4.2% 2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
-5.0% 2000
as costs of domestically produced goods fall. The worldwide global trade starts recovering due to increased credit availability. Thus, demand is progressively recovering in the EU, thanks to the contribution of exports, private consumption and investment. 5. The recovery process is accompanied by efficiency and productivity gains in many sectors, also because of the restructuring that takes place during the recession period. As a result, growth prospects of the EU are in percentage terms somewhat larger than before the crisis, albeit for a limited time period. Based on this logic, the projection displays
21000
1998
ports, the lower private consumption and investment explain the negative effects on GDP growth rates for the EU Member States. 4. To alleviate the effects of the crisis, extraordinary measures were put in place, including reduction of basic interest rates, expansion of money supply and facilitation of credit availability. These measures are expected to remove the effects of credit rationing and reduce the ―shadow‖ interest rate and so encourage investment and spending on durable goods and houses. The relatively low levels of oil and commodity prices compared to the first half of 2008 facilitate economic growth
FIGURE 1: GDP GROWTH
1996
real estate. The rate of private savings increased, exerting further depressive effects on consumption. Altogether, the drop of ex-
In the longer term, the EU GDP growth is projected to slow down to 1.7% per year between 2020 and 2030. The growth patterns differ by EU Member State: the Northern and Central Europe are more affected by the recession and recover more slowly, but stay on a significant and positive growth pace over the long term; the new Member States that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 bear an important recession compared to the high growth experienced over the last few years, but they recover faster than the EU average, followed by a slowdown in growth rates as they are progressively converging towards the EU average; Southern economies display a similar growth pattern but their long term prospects are slightly lower than those of the new Member States.
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
FIGURE 2: GDP GROWTH PER CAPITA 3
Annual avg. growth rate of GDP/capita Baseline 2007 Baseline 2009
2.5 2 1.5
1 0.5 0 90-95 40000 35000
95-00
00-05
05-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
25-30
GDP/capita EU27 - EUR'2005
30000 25000 Baseline 2007 Baseline 2009
20000 15000 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
The demographic projection, in accordance with ECFIN’s Ageing Report 2009, includes a dynamic immigration trend which helps keeping positive growth rates but is not sufficient to sustain higher growth. Both total population and active population are assumed to grow at positive, albeit very low, growth rates over the entire projection period; this contrasts past scenarios. As for households, per capita income increases at an average rate slightly lower than 2% per year during the projection period. In terms of GDP per capita, which has an important influence on energy projections, driving households’ income, the new projection shows lower GDP and higher population compared to older scenarios. In the long term, GDP per capita increases (in real terms) at an average rate below 2% per year. The macroeconomic scenario involves gradual and steady convergence of GDP/capita among the Member States. Dispersion, notably between the old and the new Member States, persists in the projection even in the long term, but the gap is slowly closing. The assumptions about future economic growth by sector of activity play an important role in energy projections. As already mentioned 22 sectors are considered. The sectoral outlook can be summarized as follows:
1. The services sectors are projected to dominate the EU’s GDP throughout the projection period. The services contribute 72% of gross value added in the EU in 2005 and are projected to contribute 74.7% of the total by 2030. 2. Non energy intensive industries display the second fastest rate of growth among the sectors and their share is projected to remain around 13.5% throughout the projection period. The engineering industry, producing equipment goods, is the dominant industry within the non energy intensive industrial sector, growing faster than the average. Pharmaceuticals and cosmetics display high growth in the scenario but their share remains rather low. Food, drink and tobacco and other industries like wood, rubber and plastics, show significant dynamism, contrasting textiles which are projected to decline. 3. The energy intensive industry (chemicals, basic metals, construction materials, pulp and paper) represent a small share in total value added (3.4% in 2005). The scenario assumes that the bulk of industrial activity in this sector will stay in the EU territory and will even display a slow but steady growth (0.7% per year between 2005 and 2030). However the share of this industry will slightly decline, reaching 2.65% by 2030. The scenario also involves restructuring within the processing and type of products produced by the energy intensive industry. Gradually, their production mix is projected to shift towards higher value added product varieties like special steel, special ceramics and high quality glass. These shifts have consequences on energy consumption and the fuel mix. 4. Chemicals are the fastest growing industry, among the energy intensive ones. Pharmaceuticals and organic chemistry grow faster than fertilizers and inorganic chemistry. The non metallic minerals sector bear considerable slowdown as a result of the recession period and the reduction in real estate in-
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
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EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
vestment; their recovery is also projected to be slow. Iron and steel industry is projected to remain active in the EU taking benefits from restructuring towards higher use of scrap material and the production of higher quality end products as a result of technology progress.
FIGURE 3: WORLD FOSSIL FUEL PRICES 120.00
Fossil Fuel Prices in Baseline (Constant USD of 2008 per boe) 105.88
100.00 88.41 80.00
76.59 71.88 62.11
60.00 44.18
40.00
29.35
The macro-economic and sectoral projections are available by Member State.
25.81
20.00
17.22
-
World Fossil Fuel Prices The energy projections are based on a relatively high oil price environment compared with previous projections and are similar to reference projections from other sources1. The baseline price assumptions for the EU27 are the result of world energy modelling (using the PROMETHEUS stochastic world energy model) that derives price trajectories for oil, gas and coal under a conventional wisdom view of the development of the world energy system. International fuel prices are projected to grow over the projection period with oil prices reaching 88$’08/bbl (73 €’08/bbl) in 2020 and 106$’08/bbl (91 €’08/bbl) in 2030. Gas prices follow a trajectory similar to oil prices reaching 62$’08/boe (51 €’08/boe) in 2020 and 77$’08/boe (66 €’08/boe) in 2030 while coal prices increase during the economic recovery period to reach almost 26$’08/boe (21 €’08/boe) in 2020 but then stabilize at 29$’08/boe (25 €’08/boe) in 2030.2 Figure 3 shows the development of fossil fuel prices in the Baseline scenario. It shows a constant increase of prices, but the ratio between the prices is expected to stay relatively constant in future projections (see Figure 4).
Oil
Gas (NCV)
Coal
The evolution of the ratio of gas and coal prices can to a great extent influence the investment choices taken by investors in the power sector. A relatively low gas to coal price ratio up to the year 2000, together with the emergence of the gas turbine combined cycle technology, led to investments in gas fired power plants. The investments decreased afterwards due to significant gas price increases. As the gas to coal price ratio is projected to remain rather stable (around 2.5), the investment decision will highly depend on the carbon price. Any volatility in the carbon price will lead to high uncertainty for investors in the power sector. FIGURE 4: RATIOS OF FOSSIL FUEL PRICES 4,5 4,0 Gas to Coal Price Ratio
3,5 3,0 2,5
2.61
2.57
2,0
1.63
1.38
1,5 1,0
Oil to Gas Price Ratio
0,5 0,0 1980
16
1
This refers to energy projections from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The EIA International Energy Outlook 2009 assumed 130 $/barrel in 2007 prices for 2030, equivalent to 134 $/barrel in 2008 prices. The IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 assumed 115 $/barrel in 2008 prices for 2030.
2
Stability of nominal exchange rates from 2020 onwards (mentioned under point 1.5 on page 24) in the presence of higher US inflation compared with inflation in the EU implies a decrease in the real $/€ exchange rate that is relevant for this comparison of real prices; this development reflects also the slowdown of economic growth in the EU due to demographic change (ageing population).
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
Policy assumptions The 2009 baseline includes policies and measures implemented in the Member States by April 2009 and legislative provisions adopted by April 2009 that are
defined in such a way that there is almost no uncertainty how they should be implemented in the future. The policies and measures reflected in the baseline 2009 are described in Table 1.
TABLE 1: INVENTORY OF LEGAL MEASURES AND COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SUPPORT INCLUDED IN THE BASELINE 2009 Measure
How the measure is reflected in PRIMES
Regulatory measures Energy efficiency Eco-design implementing measures 1
Eco-design Framework Directive 2005/32/EC
2
Stand-by regulation 2008/1275/EC
3
Simple Set-to boxes regulation 2009/107/EC
4
Office/street lighting regulation 2009/245/EC
5
Household lighting regulation 2009/244/EC
6
External power supplies regulation 2009/278/EC
Adaptation of modelling parameters for different product groups. As requirements concern only new products, the effect will be gradual (marginal in 2010; rather small in 2015 and up to full effect by 2030). The potential envisaged in the Eco-design supporting studies and the relationship between cost and efficiency improvements in the model's database were cross-checked.
Other energy efficiency 7
Labelling Directive 2003/66/EC
Enhancing the price mechanism mirrored in the model
8
Cogeneration Directive 2004/8/EC
National measures supporting cogeneration are reflected
9
Directive 2006/32/EC on end-use energy efficiency and energy services
National implementation measures are reflected
10
Buildings Directive 2002/91/EC
National measures e.g. on strengthening of building codes and integration of RES are reflected
11
Energy Star Program (voluntary labelling program)
Enhancing the price mechanism mirrored in the model
Regulatory measures Energy markets and power generation
12
Completion of the internal energy market (including provisions of the 3rd package)
The model reflects the full implementation of the Second Internal market Package by 2010 and Third Internal Market Package by 2015. It simulates liberalised market regime for electricity and gas (decrease of mark-ups of power generation operators; third party access; regulated tariffs for infrastructure use; producers and suppliers are considered as separate companies) with optimal use of interconnectors
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
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EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
The ETS carbon price is modelled so that the cumulative cap set for GHGs 3 covered by the ETS is respected . The permissible total CDM amount over 2008-2020 is conservatively estimated at 1600 Mt. Banking of allowances is reflected. The model endogenously calculates carbon prices clearing the ETS market that allow to match cumulative emissions over the period 20082030 with cumulative allowances assuming the maximum permissible use of CDMs. Resulting carbon prices in the baseline 2009 are: 25 €’08/t CO2eq in 2020 and 39 €'08/t CO2eqin 2030.
13
EU ETS directive 2003/87/EC as amended by Directive 2008/101/EC and Directive 2009/29/EC
14
Energy Taxation Directive 2003/96/EC
Tax rates (EU minimal rates or higher national ones) are kept constant in real term. The modelling reflects the practice of MS to increase tax rates above the minimum rate due to i.e. inflation.
15
Large Combustion Plant directive 2001/80/EC
Emission limit values laid down in part A of Annexes III to VII in respect of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and dust are respected. Some existing power plants had a derogation which provided them with 2 options to comply with the Directive: either to operate only a limited number of hours or to be upgraded. The model selected between the two options on a case by case basis. The upgrading is reflected through higher capital costs.
16
IPPC Directive 2008/1/EC
Costs of filters and other devices necessary for compliance are reflected in the parameters of the model
17
Directive on the geological storage of CO2 2009/31/EC
Enabling measure allowing economic modelling to determine CCS penetration
18
Directive on national emissions' ceilings for certain pollutants 2001/81/EC
PRIMES model takes into account results of RAINS/GAINS modelling regarding classical pollutants (SO2, NOx). Emission limitations are taken into account bearing in mind that full compliance can also be achieved via additional technical measures in individual MS.
19
Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC
Hydro power plants in PRIMES respect the European framework for the protection of all water bodies as defined by the Directive
20
Landfill Directive 99/31/EC
Provisions on waste treatment and energy recovery are reflected
Transport
21
Regulation on CO2 from cars 2009/443/EC
Limits on emissions from new cars: 135 gCO 2/km in 2015, 115 in 2020, 95 in 2025 – in test cycle. The 2015 target should be achieved gradually with a compliance of 65% of the fleet in 2012, 75% in 2013, 80% in 2014 and finally 100% in 2015. Penalties for non-compliance are dependent on the number of grams until 2018; starting in 2019 the maximum penalty is charged from the first gram.
22
Regulation EURO 5 and 6 2007/715/EC
Emission limits introduced for new cars and light commercial vehicles
23
Fuel Quality Directive 2009/30/EC
Modelling parameters reflect the Directive, taking into account the uncertainty related to the scope of the Directive addressing also parts of the energy chain outside the area of PRIMES modelling (e.g. oil production outside EU).
24
Biofuels directive 2003/30/EC
Support to biofuels such as tax exemptions and obligation to blend fuels is reflected in the model The requirement of 5.75% of all transportation fuels to be replaced with biofuels by 2010 has not been imposed as the target is
3
For the allocation regime for allowances in 2010, the current system based on National Allocation Plans and essentially cost-free al-
lowances is assumed, with price effects stemming from different investment and dispatch patterns triggered by need to submit allowances. For the further time periods, in the power sector there will be a gradual introduction of full auctioning, which will be fully applic able from 2020 onwards, in line with the specifications of the amended ETS directive. For the other sectors (aviation and industry), the baseline follows a conservative approach which reflects the specifications in the directive on the evolution of auctioning shares and the provisions for free allocation for energy intensive sectors based on bench marking.
18
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
indicative. Support to biofuels is assumed to continue. The biofuel blend is assumed to be available on the supply side.
25
Implementation of MARPOL Convention ANNEX VI - 2008 amendments revised Annex VI
Amendment of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention reduce sulphur content in marine fuels which is reflected in the model by a change in refineries output
Financial support TEN-E guidelines (Decision 1364/2006)
The model takes into account all TEN-E realised infrastructure projects
27
European Energy programme for Recovery (Regulation 2009/663/EC)
Financial support to CCS demonstration plants; off-shore wind and gas and electricity interconnections is reflected in the model. For modelling purposes the following amounts for CCS power plants were assumed, following assumptions of summer 2009: Germany: 950 MW (450MW coal postcombustion, 200MW lignite post-combustion and 300MW lignite oxy-fuel), Italy 660 MW (coal post-combustion), Netherlands 1460 MW (800MW coal post-combustion, 660MW coal integrated gasification pre-combustion), Spain 500 MW (coal oxy-fuel), UK 3400 MW (1600MW coal post-combustion, 1800MW coal integrated gasification pre-combustion), Poland 896 MW (306MW coal post-combustion, 590MW lignite post-combustion).
28
RTD support (7 framework programme- theme 6)
Financial support to R&D for innovative technologies such as CCS, RES, nuclear and energy efficiency is reflected by technology learning and economies of scale leading to cost reductions of these technologies
28
State aid Guidelines for Environmental Protection and 2008 Block Exemption Regulation
Financial support to R&D for innovative technologies such as CCS, RES, nuclear and energy efficiency is reflected by technology learning and economies of scale leading to cost reductions of these technologies
29
Cohesion Policy – ERDF, ESF and Cohesion Fund
Financial support to national policies on energy efficiency and renewables is reflected by facilitating and speeding up the uptake of energy efficiency and renewables technologies.
26
th
National measures 30
Strong national RES policies
National policies on e.g. feed-in tariffs, quota systems, green certificates, subsidies and other cost incentives are reflected Nuclear, including the replacement of plants due for retirement, is modelled on its economic merit and in competition with other energy sources for power generation except for MS with legislative provisions on nuclear phase out. Several constraints are put on the model such as decisions of Member States not to use nuclear at all (Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta and Portugal) and closure of existing plants in some new Member States according to agreed schedules (Bulgaria 1760 MW, Lithuania 2600 MW and Slovakia 940 MW). The nuclear phase-out in Belgium and Germany is respected while lifetime of nuclear power plants was extended to 60 years in Sweden.
31
Nuclear
Nuclear investments are possible in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, France, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. For modelling the following plans on new nuclear plants were taken into account: Bulgaria (1000 MW by 2020 and 1000 MW by 2025), Finland (1600 MW by 2015), France (1600 MW by 2015 and 1600 MW by 2020), Lithuania (800 MW by 2020 and 800 MW by 2025), Romania (706 MW by 2010, 776 MW by 2020 and 776 MW by 2025), Slovakia (880 MW by 2015). Member States experts were invited to provide information on new nuclear investments/programmes in spring 2009 and commented on the PRIMES baselines results in summer 2009, which had a significant impact on the modelling results for nuclear capacity.
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
19
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
Energy Technology Progress The 2009 Baseline, takes into account energy efficiency gains, penetration of new technologies and renewables, as well as changes in the energy mix driven by relative prices and costs. Implemented policies to promote energy efficiency, renewables and new technologies, as well as market trends bring about energy intensity improvements and energy technology changes. The technology portfolio in the PRIMES 2009 baseline includes the following:
End-use energy efficiency (thermal integrity of buildings, lighting, electric appliances, motor drives, heat pumps, etc.)
Renewable energy in centralized and decentralized power generation, in direct heating and cooling applications, as well as for blending with gasoline or diesel oil
Supercritical coal plants, advanced gas combined cycle plants and CHP
CO2 carbon capture and storage (CCS)
Nuclear energy (generation III and III+)
Advanced transmission and distribution grids and smart metering
Plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles, both for passenger and freight road transportation
Improvements in conventional engines in transport
Although the technologies in the portfolio are known today, the assumed evolution of their technical and economic characteristics presupposes that substantial industrial research and demonstration takes place before deployment at a wide scale. The modelling also assumes that learning curves apply by technology, thus reflecting decreasing costs and increasing performances as a function of cumula-
20
Energy efficiency gains are driven by microeconomic decisions, reflecting the aim of minimizing costs and maximizing economic benefits in the context of public policies that promote energy efficiency. Similarly, renewables and CHP development are driven by private economic considerations taking into account supportive policies which are assumed to continue in the scenarios and gradually decrease in the longer term. Therefore market forces and least cost considerations drive the development of renewables and cogeneration of heat and power taking into account a continuation of support schemes. The technical-economic characteristics of existing and new energy technologies used in the demand and the supply sectors of the energy system evolve over time and improve according to exogenously specified trends. Following the logic developed in the Baseline 2007, consumers and suppliers are generally hesitant to adopt new technologies before they become sufficiently mature. They behave as if they perceive a higher cost (a higher subjective discount rate) when deciding upon adoption of new technologies. Public policies, through campaigns, industrial policy, R&D support and other means, aim at pushing more rapid adoption of new technologies by removing uncertainties associated with their use. In this way, the technologies themselves reach maturity more rapidly as a result of ―learning-by-doing‖ effects and economies of scale. To take into account supportive policies for the adoption of technologies with higher energy efficiency, the perception of the technologies by the consumers is modified. Nevertheless, agents do adopt new technologies just
tive production. The steepness of the learning curve differs by technology, depending on their current stage of maturity.
because they aim at reducing the costs of energy services. This process is also supported by the EU and national energy technology research programmes complementing similar policies of the
For power generation technologies the Baseline 2009 takes an optimistic view about the future, without assuming any breakthrough in technology development. All power technologies known today are projected to improve in terms of unit cost and efficiency.
Member States promoting new and cleaner technologies. GDP growth is therefore associated with continuous improvement of energy intensity, in addition to the effects from structural change in the economy.
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
The deployment of some of the new technologies depends on the development of new infrastructures and regulations, which are state-driven. This is the
risk premium rates are applied for some new technologies at their early stages of development.
case for CCS regarding the transportation and storage of captured CO2 and for the electrification of transportation which depends on TSOs and DSOs undertaking grid and control systems investments. For CCS, the scenarios assume that the infrastructure and the regulations will deploy and become operational after 2020. For the electrification of transportation, the scenarios presented in this report assume that the development pace will be slow and so electrification of transportation will not show up before the end of the projection period (2030).
More specifically, for large power and steam genera-
Further assumptions Discount Rates The PRIMES model is based on individual decision making of agents demanding or supplying energy and on price-driven interactions in markets. The modelling approach is not taking the perspective of a social planner and does not follow an overall least cost optimization of the energy system. Therefore, social discount rates play no role in determining model solutions though they can be used for ex post cost evaluations. On the other hand discount rates pertaining to individual agents play an important role in their decision behaviour. Agents’ economic decisions are usually based on the concept of cost of capital, which is depending on the sector - weighted average cost of capital (for firms) or subjective discount rate (for individuals). In both cases, the rate used to discount future costs and revenues involves a risk premium which reflects business practices, various risk factors or even the perceived cost of lending. The discount rate for individuals also reflects an element of risk averseness.
tion companies the cost of capital increases from 8.2% in 2005 to 9.0% for 2015-2030. For small companies the cost of capital is 9.5% in 2005 and 10.5% in 2015 – 2030. In industry, services and agriculture the discount rate amounts to 12% for the whole projection period. Households have an even higher discount rate of 17.5%. For transport, the discount rate depends on the type of operator. Private passenger transport investments (e.g. for cars) are based on a discount rate of 17.5%, while for trucks and inland navigation the rate is 12%. Public transport energy investment is simulated with an assumed discount rate of 8% reflecting the acceptance of longer payback periods than those required in industry or private households. All these rates are in real terms, i.e. after deducting inflation. Degree days The degree days, reflecting climate conditions, are kept constant at the 2000 level, which is higher than the long term average without assuming any trend towards further warming. The degree days in 2000 were fairly similar to the ones in 2005. This allows comparison of recent statistics with the projection figures, without entailing the need for climate correction. Exchange rates All monetary values are expressed in constant terms of 2005 (without inflation). The dollar exchange rate for current money changes over time; it starts at the value of 1.45$/€ in 2009 and is assumed to decrease to 1.25 $/€ by 2020 and to remain at that level for the remaining period.
The discount factors vary across sectors and may differ substantially from social discount rates (such as 4-5%) which are used in social long-term planning. For the scenarios, the discount factors assumed range from 8% (in real terms) applicable to large utilities up to 17.5% applicable to individuals. Additional
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
21
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
3.
Results for the Baseline scenario
The Baseline scenario includes all policies that have been implemented until April 2009. This pertains in particular to ETS and a number of energy efficiency measures. It is not assumed that the renewable energy targets and the non-ETS obligations will be achieved given that implementation has not yet been completed. ETS is modelled in such a way that ETS emissions plus limited use of CDM credits- just meet the cumulative ETS cap in 2008-2030. This gives rise to carbon prices clearing the ETS market at 25 €’08/t CO2 in 2020 and 39 €/t in 2030 (endogenously calculated). These prices allow cumulative CO2 emissions from ETS sectors to match cumulative allowances until 2030 as provided for in the ETS Directive taking into account that in baseline context economic actors would use the maximum permissible amount of CDM.
Short term trends to 2010 and 2015 The model is used to make projections also for the year 2010 because the complete energy statistics available in 2009 were only up to the year 2007. Care was taken to constrain the projection for the year 2010 so as to take into account any existing information about the energy consumption trends and investments. The baseline 2009 and reference scenarios therefore differ only slightly in the trends towards 2015, as the trends are mainly determined by the system inertia and investment decisions taken in the past. Compared to previous projections there are substantial differences due to the influence of the economic crisis and the implementation of energy efficiency policies in both scenarios. Economy The economic growth slowdown combined with the new policies implemented until spring 2009 is reflected into the new Baseline scenario. This explains the significant differences in results between the 2009 Baseline (and the Reference scenario), on the one hand, and the 2007 Baseline, on the other, regarding the evolution of the EU energy system.
22
The effects of the economic crisis on primary energy requirements are noticeable in the short run: the crisis implies less economic activity and consumption, hence lower energy consumption but at the same time it implies a slower pace in investment and capital turnover. As energy productivity progress is mostly embedded in new capital vintages, the slowdown in equipment renewal implies a slowdown in energy efficiency progress. Thus the baseline projects energy intensity improvement as low as 0.9% pa between 2000 and 2010, significantly down from 1.3% pa as projected in the 2007 Baseline scenario. Power sector The economic downturn and the energy efficiency policies included in the scenario analysis cause lower electricity demand than previously anticipated. Nevertheless, in addition to power plants to meet still increasing electricity demand, new power plants are needed to replace the obsolete ones and to substitute the ones not complying with the environmental regulations. The changes in the ETS influence the power sector decisions: as the allowances will decrease over time some of the older power investment plans may be reconsidered. For 2010 the fossil fuel power plant operating capacity is estimated at approx. 455GW (net) and nuclear capacity at 127GW (net). Coal and lignite account for 42% of the capacity and natural gas combined cycles for 26%; the remaining capacity is divided between open cycle and peak load gas and oil power plants. The generation park in 2015 is mainly determined through power plants under construction or under confirmed planning. Most new power plants will be natural gas fired power plants using the gas turbine combined cycle technology (GTCC). Additionally it is assumed that the planned investment for the construction of 5.4GW coal and lignite power plants with CCS will go ahead and that these will be operating by 2020. The short term trends, based on power plants under construction or under confirmed planning, show a decrease in nuclear and coal power capacities, a significant investment in Gas Turbine Com-
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
bined Cycle technology and an impressive development of RES projects.
favours less consumption and more emission reduction. Although the achievement of RES targets is not imposed in the Baseline of 2009, the ongoing invest-
Implications for Energy Consumption
ments, subsidy schemes and other facilitation infrastructures, which are being developed in the Member States, are included in the scenario; thus RES deploys significantly more than in the Baseline of 2007, as driven both by the RES promoting policies and the relatively high ETS carbon prices.
The economic downturn, as explained above, implies in the short term less economic activity and consumption. This causes a reduction of energy consumption, but also a reduced investment and capital turnover which slows energy efficiency progress. The economic recovery period implies a faster pace in equipment renewing, hence acceleration of energy efficiency progress takes place. But since the new Baseline scenario includes important new legislation aiming at higher energy efficiency, notably for energy in buildings as well as for cars, lighting and electric appliances, the energy efficiency improvement process further accelerates during the economic recovery period which coincides with the implementation of the new legislation. So, in the medium term, beyond 2010, energy efficiency progress (owing to new policies implemented) offsets the effects of GDP growth on energy demand and thus primary energy requirements stabilise, contrasting the increasing trends projected in the Baseline of 2007. Primary energy requirements in the 2009 Baseline are projected to become 7.4% lower in 2020 and 10% lower in 2030 than in the 2007 Baseline.
Driven by the above mentioned policies and also because of the crisis, the new projection shows energy related CO2 emissions declining continuously in the Baseline 2009 scenario until 2030. The reduction at-
The Baseline of 2009 also includes significant new
The graphics in Figure 5 display a considerable decoupling of both energy consumption and carbon emissions from GDP growth. Although the Baseline 2009 does not include all the policy targets of the Climate and Energy package but only the policies implemented by spring 2009, the new projections show a remarkable turnaround of past trends, contrasting the Baseline of 2007.
carbon emission reduction policies, notably the EU ETS and important bottom-up policies adopted by the Member States for promoting RES. The EU ETS involves the auctioning of emission allowances after 2013 (with some exemptions for new Member States until 2020); hence electricity prices increase in the Baseline 2009 reflecting the additional costs from
tains 8.4% in 2020 from 1990 levels and 21.8% in 2030 (contrasting an increase in CO2 emissions, by 5.1% in 2020 and 5.4% in 2030 shown in the 2007 Baseline). The carbon capture technology and the carbon transport and underground storage infrastructure are assumed to develop and become gradually technologically and commercially mature after 2020, when the first demonstration CCS plants start to be commissioned. The development of CCS post 2020 depends on the ETS carbon prices. The Baseline 2009 findings show that carbon prices especially close to 2030 are likely to allow CCS expansion, on a market basis. Hence, CCS also contributes to emission reduction in the power generation sector.
auctioning, adding a price effect on demand which
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
23
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
Regarding the relationship between energy consumption and GDP the graphic shows that the Baseline 2009
FIGURE 5: ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN RELATION TO GDP 4500
2100
1900 2005 1800
1700 GIC baseline 2007 1600
GIC baseline 2009
CO2 Emissions from energy (MtCO2)
Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe)
4300 2000
4100
3700 3500
3300 3100
CO2 baseline 2007
2900
CO2 baseline 2009
2700 2500
1500
9.0
9.2
9.4 9.6 Log of GDP
9.8
9.0
0.50
Baseline 2009 % change per year
9.2
-0.50
-1.50
-1.50
-2.00
-2.00
'90-'00 -0.93
-1.77
'00-'10 -0.45
-0.95
'10-'20 -0.42
-1.84
'20-'30
Total final energy demand is projected to increase slightly by 4% between 2005 and 2030. Compared to the precrisis Baseline of 2007 with less energy
-0.50
-1.00
GIC/GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
9.8
0.00
-1.00
Carbon intensity (tCO2/toe of GIC)
9.4 9.6 Log of GDP
0.50
Baseline 2007 % change per year
0.00
-2.50
-2.50
'90-'00
'00-'10
'10-'20
'20-'30
-1.49
Carbon intensity (tCO2/toe of GIC)
-0.94
-0.35
0.03
-0.16
-1.79
GIC/GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
-1.76
-1.32
Based on this, the new Baseline should not be qualified as a business as usual scenario. A business as usual scenario would not display the decoupling of energy and carbon growth to the extent of the new baseline scenario and would have results that are more similar to the 2007 Baseline results. In Figure 5 the comparison between the Baselines 2007 and 2009 is shown.
policy measures included this means 16% less final energy consumption in 2030.
Figure 6 shows that energy demand growth is pretty small in all sectors, even in transport reflecting among other things the CO2 from Cars Regulation. Demand growth for buildings (households and services) is smaller than for industry and transport. -1.72
-1.55
FIGURE 6: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR 1400
Mtoe
Transport
1200 1000
The upper part of Figure 5 shows the projected relationship between total primary energy requirements in the EU27 (left hand side graphic), energy related CO2 emissions (right hand side graphic) and the logarithm of GDP. The effect of the economic crisis is obvious as a significant downturn in both graphics.
Services Agriculture
800 600 400
Residential
Rest of Industry
200 0
24
projection is by no means a continuation of past trends contrasting the Baseline 2007 scenario. Regarding emissions, the graphic shows a GDP decarbonisation pathway, which – although falling short of what is needed for climate change mitigation - is clearly bending downwards contrasting the trend expressed by the Baseline 2007 scenario.
2005
3900
Energy Intensive industry
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
Similarly, policies for buildings, appliances and lighting accelerate progress of energy efficiency in houses and buildings implying larger effects in terms of energy savings for heating and cooling uses (8% in 2020 and
Transport sector Heating & Appliances Cooling & Lighting
The CO2 from Cars Regulation and other structural changes reflected in Baseline 2009 imply considerable savings in the transport sector, especially close to 2030 (18% compared to 2007 Baseline).
Mtoe Energy Savings in Baseline 2009
% Energy Savings in Baseline 2009
18
from Base 2007
from Base 2007
2030
2020
44
1
1 3
3
14
from Base 2007
from Base 2007
84
10
from Base 2007
Industry
the term ―energy savings‖ for the projected demand reductions, which are due both to the crisis and the energy efficiency measures included in the Baseline 2009.
FIGURE 7: ENERGY SAVINGS IMPLIED IN BASELINE 2009
Final energy
Figure 7 compares final energy demand projections of the Baseline 2009 scenario to projections of the Baseline 2007 and uses
BASELINE 2009
59
8
35 11
42
9
35 13
189
9 0
5
119
10
15
20
25 0
50
100
150
200
14% in 2030 compared to 2007 Baseline).
FIGURE 8: ENERGY INTENSITY INDICATORS Industry (Energy on Value added)
Transport (Energy on GDP)
0.00
0.00
-0.50
-0.50
% change per year
% change per year
Regarding appliances and lighting, the changes in the 2009 Baseline from the 2007 Baseline are rather small. Energy efficiency improvements from eco-design measures are somewhat masked by stronger increase of population living in more households than foreseen in the 2007 Baseline.
-1.00 -1.50 -2.00
-1.00 -1.50 -2.00
Baseline 2007
For industry, the lower 2009 Baseline en-
-2.50
ergy demand projections (11% less than in the pre-crisis baseline in 2030) are mainly due to the effects from lower economic growth.
-3.00 '00-'10
'10-'20
'20-'30
'90-'00
'20-'30
0.00
% change per year
% change per year
'10-'20
-0.50
-1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50
'00-'10
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
-0.50
Figure 8 shows the projection of energy intensity indicators by sector for the Baseline scenario compared to previous projections for the Baseline 2007.
Baseline 2009
-3.00 '90-'00
0.00
Baseline 2007 -2.50
Baseline 2009
Baseline 2007
-1.00 -1.50 -2.00
Baseline 2007
-2.50
Baseline 2009
Baseline 2009 -3.00
-3.00 '90-'00
'00-'10
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
'10-'20
'20-'30
'90-'00
'00-'10
'10-'20
'20-'30
25
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
Energy efficiency in the residential and tertiary sectors can be improved by using better energy equipment (e.g. lighting, electric appliances, heating and cooling appliances), by improvements of buildings (e.g. thermal integrity of buildings) or by inducing changes in behaviour. In the Baseline 2009 scenario, for the residential and the services sector there is a general improvement in the energy efficiency of energy using equipment across the EU. This can be brought back to the effects of the implementation of the Eco-Design and Labelling Directives, which are applied in all Member States. National policies are nonetheless taken into consideration. In the services sector the energy efficiency improvements are not sufficient to counteract the increase in absolute terms of useful energy demand, which continues rising.
FIGURE 9: USEFUL ENERGY IN THE SERVICES SECTOR 280
Growth Rates p.a. 2000-2030
Index 2000=100
260
Cooling Electric uses Value added Heat Uses
240 220
Baseline Baseline 2009 2007 3.14% 3.9% 3.12% 3.2% 1.91% 2.2% 0.19% 0.8%
200 180
cooling electric uses value added heating
160 140
120 100 2000
2010
2020
2030
Energy efficiency improvements not related to energy equipment are more difficult to bring back to a specific element as there are several influencing factors such as increase in comfort levels (which generally increase energy use) or other behavioural change, influenced by public campaigns.
FIGURE 10: IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION Baseline 2009: Energy and Activity in Transportation GDP
200 180
Energy for Passenger transportation Freight transport activity
140 120
Energy for Freight transportation
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
100
350
90% 80%
300 291
70% 60% 211
50%
165
40% 30% 20% 10%
0% 2005
26
2020
2030
CO2 g/km
100%
Baseline 2007
200
Passenger transport activity
160
220
180 160
140 120 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
220
Electric
Plug-in hybrids
250
Hybrid vehicles
200
ICE vehicles
CO2 intensity (right axis) 2020 2030 100 Fuel Mix Cars Petroleum Fuels 92.8% 91.1% 50 Biofuels 6.6% 8.3% Electricity 0.0% 0.0% 0 Natural Gas 0.6% 0.6% 150
The 2009 Baseline takes a conservative view regarding the possible changes in transport sector fuel mix: hybrid vehicles make significant inroads, but grid electricity is not penetrating the transport market; biofuels develop according to currently implemented policies (however not delivering the 10% target for RES in transport from the RES Directive). The transport sector exhibits the highest energy savings in comparison to the 2007 Baseline. This is due to a less pronounced growth of transport activity as a result of lower GDP growth and to the effects of new policy measures included in the 2009 Baseline).
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
FIGURE 11: IMPACTS ON DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY Final and Energy Branch Net Electricity Demand (TWh) 4000 3800
Impacts for Power Generation As shown in Figure 12, the fuel mix in power generation also exhibits significant changes in comparison to the 2007 Baseline owing to the effects of the EU ETS carbon prices which increase the cost of fossil fuels. In addition more pronounced promoting policies for
Electricity Share in Final Energy Demand (%) 30.0
Baseline 2007
3600 3400
4
25.0
Baseline 2009
22.5 22.5 20.2
20.0
3200
24.9 23.2
renewables pursued now in the Member States bring in more RES compared to the Baseline 2007.
17.2
3000
15.0
2800
In the new context of the EU ETS system, the model projects a significant decrease in coal/lignite generation, which accounts for 22.2% of total electricity generation in 2030 in the Baseline 2009, 9 percentage points down from the 2007 Baseline, despite signifi-
10.0
2600 2400
5.0 2200
0.0
2000
1990
2005
2020
2030
cant penetration of CCS in the new scenario. Gasbased generation increases slightly from current levels in volume terms, but looses market share. The prospects for further penetration of gas based electricity generation are modest in Baseline 2009 contrasting past expectations. Nevertheless, the simulation of the power system reveals that gas will have to play a crucial role for balancing purposes, as according to these new projections more intermittent RES power operate (18.5% in 2030, significantly up from 5.6% in 2010). 5
The economic crisis and the new efficiency policies included in the Baseline 2009 induce a significant slowdown of demand for electricity with cumulative electricity sales (2005-2030) being some 7% lower compared to the 2007 Baseline (see Figure 11). However, electrification in final energy demand continues to be a dominant trend with the share of electricity in final energy demand reaching 24.9% in 2030 (from 23.2% in the 2007 Baseline). Electrification could further intensify if electricity also penetrated in transportation
FIGURE 12: STRUCTURE OF POWER GENERATION Baseline 2009: Gross Power Generation by source in TWh
Baseline 2007: Gross Power Generation by source in TWh
4000
4000 RES
3000
3000
Oil
2000
Gas
2000
1000
Solids
1000
Nuclear
0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 14.3 21.2 30.0 30.5
2005
Baseline 2009: Shares in % 19.2 26.0 23.9 22.8 26.9 24.9 28.0 24.5
2010
2020
32.1 18.7 22.2 25.9
14.3 21.2 30.0
2030
2005
30.5
Baseline 2007: Shares in % 17.4 20.2 24.2 26.2 28.8 30.4 26.7 21.2
2010
2020
22.8 24.6 31.2 19.8
2030
4
Final energy demand sectors and energy branch net electricity demand includes consumption of electricity by final consumers and the energy branch; it excludes transmission and distribution losses, as well as own consumption by power plants.
5
Intermittent resources are: wind (on-shore and off-shore), solar and tidal/wave. The shares are related to net electricity generation.
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
27
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
FIGURE 13: STRUCTURE OF RES POWER 1400
Baseline 2009: Gross Power Generation by RES in TWh
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
2005
Tidal, etc. 0 Geothermal 5 Biomass/waste 84 Solar 1 Wind offshore 2 Wind onshore 68 Hydro 307
2010 0 6 127 17 14 147 323
2015 1 6 164 32 72 197 332
2020 3 7 191 46 146 253 339
2025 6 11 218 60 204 316 349
2030 9 19 241 75 276 368 355
0
Baseline 2007: Gross Power Generation by RES in TWh
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Tidal, etc. 0 Geothermal 8 Biomass/waste 102 Solar 1 Wind offshore 0 Wind onshore 70 Hydro 307
0 8 133 4 9 136 333
0 8 145 6 13 189 329
2 8 196 9 24 247 336
3 9 235 13 36 279 345
5 9 282 17 46 296 351
Nuclear energy remains roughly stable relative to current levels over the projection period, as new nuclear plants are commissioned in some countries while decommissioning takes place either because of age or
The bulk of the increase in RES power (see Figure 13) corresponds to the deployment of wind onshore, the rising investment in offshore wind and the considerable development of solar photovoltaics. Other
because of the phase-out which reflects the policies pursued in Germany and Belgium when the Baseline modelling was undertaken. The nuclear shares in Baseline 2009 are higher than in Baseline 2007, because of the ETS prices which drive higher nuclear investment and the revival of nuclear programs in the UK as well as the new nuclear investment foreseen in
forms of RES power also emerge, such as concentrated solar thermal and tidal/wave energy. Wind and the other RES are facilitated by assumed expansion of grids and new equipment for controlling grid operation, which entail additional costs that show up in the electricity prices.
Italy and Poland.
Biomass and waste energy combustion for power generation develop significantly in the Baseline 2009 scenario, both in pure biomass plants (usually of relatively small size) and in co-firing applications in solid fuel plants. Biomass and waste input to power generation is projected to more than double in 2030 from current levels. The use of biomass and waste energy is wide-spread in CHP applications.
Renewable power generation makes impressive inroads in the 2009 Baseline scenario. Already in 2020, RES power gets the largest market share in total power generation (26.0% from 20.2% in the 2007 Baseline) and is projected to account for almost one third of total generation in 2030 (9.2 percentage points above 2007 Baseline levels).
28
1400
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
The increase in RES in the scenario compared to previous projections requires a higher amount of gas fired power plants to cope with the higher amount of intermittent energy sources. Although the absolute amount of gas used in the Baseline scenario diminishes, the share of gas fired power plants in fossil fuel power generation increases (see Figure 14).
BASELINE 2009
FIGURE 14: SHARE OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUEL BASED POWER GENERATION AND FOSSIL FUEL INPUT TO POWER GENERATION Share of Gas in Fossil Fuel based Power Generation (%)
Fossil Fuels in Power Generation (Mtoe)
48
500 480 460 440 420 400 380 360 340 320 300
46 44 42
40 38 36
34 Baseline 2009 Baseline 2007
2005
2020
2030
38.4 40.3
46 44.7
44.4 42.8
Baseline 2009 Baseline 2007
2005
2020
2030
394 392
384 425
344 416
The share of electricity produced by CHP plants (normalized according to the standards of the CHP directive) attains a level around 17.5% throughout the period from 2015 until 2030, significantly up from 11.7% in 2005.
The EU ETS carbon prices, reaching 39 €’08/tCO2 in 2030, drive CCS investment: from 5.4 GW (CCS demonstration plants) in 2020 CCS capacity increases to 35 GW in 2030. The share of CCS generation in total power generation is 8.7% by 2030, when 23.6% of CO2 emissions from power generation are projected to be captured and sequestrated.
The above changes in the fuel mix of power generation with the penetration of carbon free sources imply a steady decrease in carbon intensity of power generation: the average emission of CO2 per MWh produced halves in 2030 compared to 2005; this trend could not be displayed in the Baseline 2007.
Cogeneration develops significantly in the new Baseline scenario, driven by new policies supporting CHP (including the cogeneration directive) and the ETS prices.
FIGURE 15: CARBON INTENSITY AND OTHER INDICATORS FOR POWER GENERATION Carbon Intensity of Power Generation (tCO2/MWh) 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25
Efficiency for Thermal Electricity Production (%)
40.8
0.381
23.1
41.2 41.4
40.1 39.3 38.5
0.360 0.316
37.6
8.9
0.297 0.274
2.7
0.236
0.20
0.179
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
% of Electricity from CHP
% of Electricity from CCS
17.4 17.6 17.9 17.5
0.15 0.10
% of CO2 Emissions Captured
8.7
15.1
Baseline 2007 Baseline 2009
11.4 11.7 3.7
0.05
1.4
0.00 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
29
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
FIGURE 16: IMPACTS ON COSTS AND PRICES OF ELECTRICITY billion € 500
250
Baseline 2009: Structure of Electricity Costs
450
Baseline 2009: After tax Electricity Prices in EUR/MWh
Gross Sales margin
400 350
Tax on Fuels and Auction Fuel and variable
300
250
200
200
Grid
150
150
100
Capital and O&M
50 0 2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
Baseline 2009: Pre-tax price of electricity in EUR/MWh
91.8 10.5
119.7 11.6 11.3
123.9 11.7 11.8
Gross Sales margin
38.9
40.3
9.0
9.9
Tax on Fuels and Auction Fuel and variable
29.4 7.8
0
Grid
43.2
48.8
50.2
2010
2020
2030
Capital and O&M
Average Industry Services Households
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
96 59 123 127
104 71 124 133
110 77 124 144
127 92 139 164
140 101 152 180
146 104 159 191
144 98 159 192
The projected changes in the EU27 power sector also
Impacts on Primary Energy Supply
have significant impacts on energy costs and electricity prices. Total cumulative investment expenditure for power generation in the period 2006-2030 are pro-
As the new Baseline scenario involves lower total primary energy requirements and a restructuring away from fossil fuels, considerable benefits are obtained in terms of security of energy supply: dependence on energy imports increases much less than projected in the baseline scenario of 2007. Import dependency in 2030 in the latest Baseline amounts to 59% compared with 67% in the exercise undertaken in 2007.
jected to reach 1.1 trillion €’08 with electricity prices increasing substantially both relative to present levels and in comparison to the 2007 Baseline. Auction payments and increasing fuel prices and higher capital costs (for RES and CCS) are the factors explaining the electricity price rise. The average price of electricity, net of auction payments, increases to 108.4€/MWh in 2020 and 112.1€/MWh in 2030 (in real terms, i.e. in money of 2005), a consistent rise compared to current values due to higher capital and O&M costs, and higher fuel and variable costs. The auction payments account for 9.4% of the average pre-tax electricity price.
30
50
The EU will require 40% more gas to be imported by 2030 compared with 2005 (the increment was 70% in the Baseline scenario of 2007). Oil and solid fuels imports are projected to be close to the 2005 levels in 2030 (contrasting an increase by 24% and 68% respectively in the Baseline scenario of 2007).
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
FIGURE 17: IMPACTS ON PRIMARY ENERGY
Baseline 2009: Primary Energy Requirements 2000
2000
Mtoe RES
1500
Baseline 2007: Primary Energy Requirements Mtoe
1500
Natural gas
1000
Oil
1000
Solids
500
Nuclear
500 0
0
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Baseline 2009: Net Imports
Mtoe
Mtoe
1990
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
Baseline 2007: Net Imports
2020
2030
Natural gas 135 Oil 536
145
193
257
293
328
351
361
364
Natural gas
390
431
512
533
600
579
616
630
619
597
Oil
707
729
Solids
79
99
127
117
134
145
140
129
Solids
200
210
82
The new scenario projects lower primary energy demand compared with the 2007 exercise. The new baseline projection shows stable gross energy consumption, which is a break of the historic trend for ever increasing energy demand. Moreover, there is a change in the shares of the different fossil fuels. Although there is a substantial reduction of gas imports compared to previous projections, the share of gas among fossil fuels increases compared to the 2007 Baseline as can be seen in Figure 18, due to the carbon price. For natural gas the dependence on imports increases strongly over time reflecting strong demand and declining indigenous production.
FIGURE 18: SHARES OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOSSIL FUEL USE
Share of Gas in Total Fossil Fuel Consumption (%) 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 Baseline 2009 Baseline 2007
2005
2020
2030
30.9 31.1
33.6 32.6
34.4 33.1
Fossil Fuels in Total Primary Energy (Mtoe) 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 Baseline 2009 Baseline 2007
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
2005
2020
2030
1443 1430
1377 1548
1278 1560
31
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
Impacts on Emissions and RES Indicators Total CO2 emissions are projected to reduce by 8% in 2020 and by 20% in 2030 relative to 1990 levels. The reduction takes place for energy related CO2 emissions, which even fall 22% between 1990 and 2030. On the contrary, non-energy related CO2, emissions in 2030 are only slightly lower than they were in 1990 (-3%). The large part of the reduction in energy related CO2 emissions is projected to occur in the ETS sectors (-30% from 2005 levels in 2030) whereas non ETS emissions of CO2 are projected to remain at their 2005 levels in 2020 and decrease by 9% in 6 2030 . Total greenhouse gas emissions can be calculated by combining PRIMES results with results from non-CO2 projections based on the GAINS model7. The overall greenhouse gas emission reductions in the non-ETS sectors in the Baseline 2009 scenario, compared to 2005 levels, are 3.6% in 2020 and 9.2% in 2030. Compared to 1990, total EU greenhouse gas emissions based on implemented policy measures are projected to decrease by 14% in 2020.
Cumulative Emissions (MtCO2eq)
Baseline 2009: Emissions (Mt CO2) 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO2 Emissions (non330 304 280 291 306 315 318 energy related) CO2 Emissions (energy 4031 3947 3728 3759 3692 3486 3152 related) All CO2 4360 4251 4008 4050 3998 3801 3470 Baseline 2009: Emissions (Mt CO2)
5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 non-ETS CO2 ETS CO2 Total CO2
TABLE 2: GHG EMISSION CHANGES FROM 2005 Index (2005=100) CO2 emissions (energy related) CO2 emissions (non-energy related) non-CO2 GHG emissions Total GHG emissions ETS emissions (all GHGs) non ETS emissions (all GHGs)
FIGURE 19: CO2 EMISSIONS
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
1872 2379 4251
1879 2129 4008
1891 2159 4050
1844 2154 3998
1777 2024 3801
1705 1765 3470
Baseline 2009 2020 2030 94 80 100 105 87 86 93 82 89 73 96 91 2008-2030 108085
6
For reasons of comparability over time, ETS emissions are calculated according to the enlarged ETS scope (including aviation and further processes) valid from 2012/13 onwards. Hence 2005 emissions as calculated in the model are higher as current verified ETS emissions. 7 See Höglund-Isaksson, Lena et al. (2010): Potentials and costs for mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union until 2030. Results. REPORT to the European Commission, DG Climate Action. Download: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/pdf/climat_action/non_co2e missions_may2010.pdf
32
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
The share of renewable energy sources in gross final energy demand is projected to increase over time to reach 14.8% in 2020 and 18.4% in 2030 (up from 8.6% in 2005). These shares remain however well below the EU targets as the 2009 Baseline takes stock of the effects of already implemented policies rather than imposing the achievement of those targets. Driven by the ETS and national RES supporting policies, the share of RES in electricity is projected to increase more than the RES share in other sectors (for heating and cooling and for transportation).
BASELINE 2009
FIGURE 20: RES INDICATORS Baseline 2009: RES Indicators normalised Eurostat definitions) 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0
15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
RES-Heating and Cooling
9.0
10.0
11.7
12.8
14.3
15.9
16.8
RES-Electricity
13.7
15.2
18.8
22.4
25.8
28.8
31.9
RES-Transport
0.5
1.4
4.2
5.9
7.4
8.4
9.3
RES % Gross Final Demand
7.6
8.6
10.9
12.8
14.8
16.7
18.4
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
33
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
BASELINE 2009
Conclusions Summing up, the 2009 Baseline is substantially different from that of 2007, since it reflects the effects of the economic crisis and includes new policies for energy efficiency, the ETS, and support measures for RES penetration. The policies included allow total energy demand to stabilise, RES to deploy considerably, nuclear to partly revive thereby reducing the use of fossil fuels. Contrasting the trends shown in the Baseline 2007, the new Baseline scenario shows power generation to embark on a gradual but steady decarbonisation pathway. Evidently, emission reduction would be higher if the binding RES targets and the non ETS emission reduction constraints had already been implemented by policy measures, which is expected to happen during this decade. The Baseline, as a stock-taking exercise, shows that there is still a gap to be filled with further policy action. The energy trends under the 2009 Baseline assumptions imply an impressively decreasing trajectory for CO2 and remarkable energy intensity gains, trends which deliver considerable ancillary benefits in terms of security of supply and non climate related environmental pressures. However, again the results fall short of the agreed binding targets on greenhouse gases.
34
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU-27 ENERGY SCENARIOS TO 2030
REFERENCE SCENARIO
REFERENCE SCENARIO
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
35
REFERENCE SCENARIO
36
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
4.
REFERENCE SCENARIO
Assumptions and drivers
The Reference scenario is based on the same macroeconomic, energy import price, technology and to a large extent also policy assumptions as the baseline. These assumptions are presented in the section on the Baseline 2009 scenario. In addition to these assumptions, the reference case includes more policies that have either been adopted after the Baseline modelling began or reflect the agreed legally binding targets on greenhouse gas reduction and renewables.
Policy assumptions
2009: four Eco-design implementing measures, the Recast of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, Regulation on Labelling of Tyres and Regulation EURO 6 for heavy duty vehicles. The reference scenario assumes that the two binding targets for 2020 on the 20% RES share in the gross final energy consumption, and on 20% GHG reductions will be achieved. The 20% RES target includes the subtarget to have a 10% share of RES in transport. The 20% GHG reduction target following the unilateral EU commitment on cutting GHG by 20% below 1990 is achieved by full implementation of the ETS provisions (as in the Baseline) as well as by reaching the nonETS targets of the Effort Sharing Decision at national levels.
In addition to the measures already reflected in the baseline 2009 the Reference scenario includes policies adopted between April 2009 and December TABLE 3: INVENTORY OF LEGAL MEASURES AND COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SUPPORT INCLUDED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO Measure
How the measure is reflected in PRIMES
Eco-design implementing measures 1
TVs (+labelling) Regulation 2009/642/EC
2
Electric motors Regulation 2009/640/EC
3
Circulators Regulation 2009/641/EC
4
8
Freezers/refrigerators (+labelling) Regulation 2009/643/EC
9
Adaptation of modelling parameters for different product groups for Ecodesign and decrease of perceived costs by consumers for labelling (which reflects transparency and the effectiveness of price signals for consumer decisions). As requirements and labelling concern only new products, the effect will be gradual (marginal in 2010; rather small in 2015 up to full effect by 2030). The potential envisaged in the Eco-design supporting studies and the relationship between cost and efficiency improvements in the model's database were cross-checked. New building requirements are reflected in technical parameters of the model, in particular through better thermal integrity of buildings and requirements for new buildings after 2020.
5
Recast of the EPBD 2010/31/EU
6
Labelling regulation for tyres 2009/1222/EC
Decrease of perceived costs by consumers for labelling (which reflects transparency and the effectiveness of price signals for consumer decisions).
7
Regulation Euro VI for heavy duty vehicles 2009/595/EC
Emissions limits introduced for new heavy duty vehicles.
RES directive 2009/28/EC
Legally binding national targets for RES share in gross final energy consumption are achieved in 2020; 10% target for RES in transport is achieved for EU27, as biofuels can easily be traded among Member States; sustainability criteria for biomass and biofuels are respected; cooperation mechanisms according to the RES directive are allowed and respect Member States indications on their "seller" or "buyer" positions.
GHG Effort Sharing Decision 2009/406/EC
National targets for non-ETS sectors are achieved in 2020, taking full account of the flexibility provisions such as transfers between Member States. After 2020, stability of the provided policy impulse but no strengthening of targets is assumed.
9
10
8
Circulator is an impeller pump designed for use in heating and cooling systems. Glandless standalone circulators and glandles s circulators integrated in products are covered by this regulation. 9 As political agreement on the recast of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive was reached in November 2009, all the main provisions were taken into account for the Reference scenario modelling.
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
37
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
REFERENCE SCENARIO
The Effort Sharing Decision stipulates national greenhouse gas reduction targets for the non-ETS sectors, aimed at leading to a reduction at EU level of
The additional policies and measures reflected in the reference scenario (in addition to the Baseline 2009) are described in Table 3 below. The Reference scenario can be used as benchmark to assess the effects of additional policies beyond the 2020 binding targets and as a benchmark for policy scenarios with long term targets.
around 10% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. Several new sectoral policies will need to be deployed to reach the target. Drivers for these sectors and policies are determined in the model in the form of shadow prices of carbon (carbon value), which are taken into account by the agents in the model in their decision making as costs. The Effort Sharing Decision allows transfers between Member States to reach the national targets. It was assumed that Member States use this option if it is economically beneficial for them, so carbon values are assumed to be equal across Member States.
Drivers The Reference scenario is characterised by lower ETS carbon prices: 16.5 €’08/t CO2 in 2020 and 18.7 €’08/t CO2 in 2030 compared to baseline 2009 values of 25 €’08/t CO2 in 2020 and 39 €’08/t CO2 in 2030. Lower carbon prices result from the achievement of the RES target and additional energy efficiency policies agreed between April 2009 and December 2009 that lower energy consumption.
The shadow carbon value for the non-ETS sector reaching the aggregated EU level reduction was found equal to 5.3 €'08/ tCO2 in 2020. This relatively low marginal cost for the non-ETS sector is due to: the inclusion of non-CO2 abatement options which to a certain extent allow emission reductions at relatively low costs; the assumption of renewables support policies for heating and transport (see below) and to additional energy efficiency policies reflected
Subsequently, this leads to a decrease in emissions in the ETS sectors which reduce demand for carbon allowances. As the price for ETS carbon allowances is generated through the market equilibrium of demand and supply and demand is lower than in the baseline 2009 while supply remains at the same level, the price of ETS carbon allowances is lower than in the Baseline 2009.
10
in the Reference scenario.
FIGURE 21: ETS EMISSIONS AND ALLOWANCES (INCL. PERMISSIBLE USE OF INTERNATIONAL CREDITS)
2500
Emissions in Mt CO2 eq.
2000 1500 1000 500
Allowances
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
ETS emissions in Reference
10
ETS emissions and allowances (the latter including the permissible use of international credits) are calculated based on the enlarged ETS scope as valid from 2012/13. For the period 2008 to 2012, aviation and non-CO2 process emissions are deducted to approximate the current ETS scope. Yearly emissions are interpolated, for 2008 and 2009, also taking account of recent trends in verified ETS emissions.
38
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
REFERENCE SCENARIO
The marginal abatement cost curves for these non CO2 options are taken from IIASA’s GAINS model11.
trading among Member States has been assumed for the modelling.
After 2020, as there is no target for non-ETS sectors,
5.
a conservative assumption has been taken in the modelling that a comparable level of efforts will be continued and therefore the carbon value remains constant. Similarly to the non-ETS carbon value, the RES values represent shadow prices of RES obligations for electricity, heat and transport uses. The RES value is seen as a benefit by agents in the model as opposed to the non ETS carbon value. One uniform RES value has been computed for RES in electricity and for the heating and cooling sector. A separate target has been agreed for RES in transport and therefore a specific RES-transport value has been calculated. The RES targets are assumed to be met in 2020 at Member States level. Limited flexibility was assumed whereby a few countries with very high RES values (meaning great difficulty in meeting their RES targets) make use of cooperation mechanisms foreseen in the Directive by exchanges with countries that have low RES values. In doing so the modelling took account of the indications given by Member States to the Commission in early 2010 on how they intend to reach their national targets. Country specific RES values reflect differ-
Results for the Reference scenario
Implications for Energy Consumption In the Reference scenario the economic downturn implies less economic activity and consumption in the short term, as is the case in the Baseline 2009. This causes a reduction of energy consumption, but also reduced investment and capital turnover which slows energy efficiency progress compared to previous projections. The economic recovery period after the crisis implies a faster pace in equipment renewing, hence acceleration of energy efficiency progress takes place. In addition, the Reference scenario includes the entire Energy and Climate Package so the energy efficiency progress is higher in this scenario to achieve the 2020 targets. As in the Baseline 2009 scenario, GDP growth and energy demand are decoupling. The additional polices of the reference case decrease primary energy requirements further. Gross inland consumption in the Reference case is projected to be 9.5% lower in 2020 and 12.5% lower in 2030 than in the 2007 Baseline. Compared with the 2009 Baseline this represents a reduction of 2% in 2020 and of 3% in 2030 (see Figure 22).
ences in renewable potentials and already implemented policies. The average RES value (across all RES uses) reaches 49.5 €'08/MWh in 2020 and 34.8 €'08/MWh in 2030. The higher RES value of 2020 is due to the need to achieve the RES target and to the limited recourse to co-operation mechanism (trading) among Member States. After 2020, there is no further target, but continuation of RES support policies with more
11
Höglund-Isaksson, Lena et al. (2010): Potentials and costs for mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union until 2030. Report to the European Commission, DG Climate Action. Available at http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/pdf/climat_action/non_co2e missions_may2010.pdf
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
39
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
REFERENCE SCENARIO
FIGURE 22: ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN RELATION TO GDP 4500
CO2 Emissions from energy (MtCO2)
Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe)
2100 2000 1900 2005 1800 1700
GIC baseline 2007 GIC baseline 2009
1600
GIC Reference 1500
4300 4100
2005
3900 3700 3500
3300
CO2 baseline 2007
3100 CO2 baseline 2009
2900
2700
CO2 Reference
2500 9.0
9.2
9.4 9.6 Log of GDP
9.8
9.0
CO2 emissions decrease faster than in the Baseline 2009 scenario up to 2020, because the reference scenario includes meeting the targets for GHG and RES in 2020. After the achievement of the 2020 targets the decline becomes less steep resulting in a convergence of the carbon intensity of GDP in the Reference and Baseline 2009 scenarios by the year 2030, represented in Figure 22 by the highest GDP levels given the macro-economic assumptions of ongoing GDP growth. The CO2 emissions from energy
9.2
9.4 9.6 Log of GDP
9.8
decrease continuously but reach the same levels in the reference case as the Baseline 2009 in 2030, although the emissions decline faster before 2020. Nevertheless, given that GHG concentrations matter for climate change, the development of cumulative emissions is decisive. Therefore the Reference case is environmentally superior to the Baseline.
Final energy
Industry
Heating & Appliances & Transport Cooling Lighting sector
Total final energy demand changes for the tertiary and residential sectors that are particularly affected by the additional policies and measures implemented in the Reference scenario. FIGURE 23: ENERGY SAVINGS IMPLIED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO Figure 23 shows that in the Reference Mtoe Energy Savings in % Energy Savings in Reference Reference scenario there are big reductions compared to the Baseline 2007 and also to from Base 2009 1 2 a smaller extent compared to the Base17 80 from Base 2007 10 46 line 2009. 4 from Base 2009
4
2
from Base 2009
5
1
18 6
from Base 2007
18
10
from Base 2009
1
7 2 10
from Base 2009
1
13
49 37
2
27 13
from Base 2007
15
10 0
77
41
2
from Base 2007
2020
5 5
5 5
from Base 2007
2030
40
2
5
10
216 132
15
20
25 0
100
200
300
The residential and services sectors exhibit even stronger energy efficiency improvements than in the Baseline 2009 scenario. The additional legislation for refrigerators and freezers causes an improvement in energy efficiency for white appliances in the residential sector of approx. 20% compared to the Baseline 2009. The increased efficiency standards under the recast of
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
REFERENCE SCENARIO
FIGURE 24: IMPACTS ON PASSENGER AND FREIGHT TRANSPORT 200 175
150
Vehicles efficiency improvement change from 2005, in %
Income per capita Travel per capita
Passenger Transport Index 1990 = 100
125
Energy demand
100
-8.0 -14.7
Energy Intensity
50
-24.5
-26.3 Passenger transport
1990
2000
2010
2020
225 200 175
Energy demand
150 125 75
Private cars
2020
-33.2
Rail
Aviation
2030
Vehicles efficiency improvement change from 2005, in % -4.9
-5.4
Transport per unit of GDP
100
Public road transport
2030 GDP
Freight Transport Index 1990 = 100
-29.9
-30.4
25
0
-17.1
-17.5 -18.3
75
-13.0
-13.4
-13.6
Energy Intensity
50 25
-36.9
0
Freight transport 1990
2000
2010
2020
2020
2030
the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, implemented in this scenario, cause a general downward trend across all Member States; the trends, due to national policies that were already visible in the
Trucks
2030
Rail
the inclusion of aviation in the ETS are the main drivers for the increased energy efficiency in the sector. The freight sector follows similar trends although the effects are less pronounced.
Baseline 2009 scenario, are strengthened in the Reference scenario (see Figure 8). FIGURE 25: IMPACTS ON ROAD TRANSPORTATION
mand in transportation from the transport activity given that transport energy demand rises only slightly. Regarding changes in the fuel mix, however, changes in the reference scenario are rather limited. Nevertheless, the amount of renewable energy in transportation develops in line with the 10% RES target and hybrid cars make significant inroads, but there is no penetration of electricity in road transport sector. The CO2 intensity decreases to 206 gCO2/km in 2020 and to 164 gCO2/km in 2030.
100% 90%
350 291
300
80%
ICE vehicles 200
206
CO2 intensity (right axis)
50% 164
30%
150 100 50
10% 0%
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
Plug-in hybrids Hybrid vehicles
60%
40%
Electric
250
70%
20%
For passenger transport the decoupling of transport activity and economic growth is strong, given significant passenger transport activity and stability of energy demand for this purpose. The new regulations for cars, further electrification of the rail network and
CO2 g/km
In the transport sector, the policies included in the scenario lead to a near decoupling of the energy de-
0 2005 2020 2030
Fuel Mix Cars Petroleum Fuels Biofuels Electricity Natural Gas
2020
2030
90.4% 88.1% 8.9% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
0.6%
41
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
REFERENCE SCENARIO
FIGURE 26: POWER GENERATION FROM RES
Impacts on Power Generation The overall trends of the Baseline 2009 compared to the Baseline 2007 come to the fore also in the Reference Scenario, both for 2020 and 2030. However the trends are somewhat more pronounced in the reference case. The results differ because of the different
1400 1200 1000
driving forces. The RES value applies in the Reference scenario but not in the Baseline scenario (given that RES values are derived with respect to the underlying Baseline), whereas the ETS carbon prices are significantly lower in the Reference scenario reflecting lower electricity production and more RES use.
800 600 400 200
0
The structure of power generation changes significantly. The RES target causes a major increase in generation from renewables, which continues up to 2030 and has a crowding out effect on other technologies. Fossil fuel generation sees a major contraction: contrary to previous expectations gas generation decreases to a share of approx. 18% and also solids follow a much steeper decline than previously projected. Nuclear energy reduces considerably in terms of share, but in absolute terms (TWh) nuclear production in 2030 amounts to almost the same levels as in 2005.
Reference: Gross Power Generation by RES in TWh
Tidal, etc. Geothermal Biomass/waste Solar Wind offshore Wind onshore Hydro
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0 5 84 1 2 68 307
0 7 120 17 14 147 323
1 8 171 32 81 243 333
7 12 261 62 177 348 341
10 17 275 77 224 381 350
14 22 286 94 287 407 358
Generation from RES sees a major expansion and sees a modification in the structure. Hydropower remains constant thus decreasing considerably in share. Wind onshore, wind offshore and solar photovoltaics see a major growth. Geothermal and tidal both expand but remain minor technologies. Biomass has a higher percentage than in the Baseline 2009 due to the further implementation of the cogeneration directive and as it represents a non-intermittent RES supply. The share of intermittent RES rises to 16.8%
FIGURE 27: POWER GENERATION STRUCTURE Reference 2009: Shares in %
Reference : Gross Power Generation by source in TWh 4500
14.3
4000
3500
RES
3000
21.2
Oil
2500
Gas
2000
30.0
Solids
1500
19.0 32.6
36.1
19.5
17.8
22.8
21.1
23.2
27.6
Nuclear
1000
500
30.5
28.0
23.9
24.1
2005
2010
2020
2030
0 2000
42
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
REFERENCE SCENARIO
FIGURE 28: CAPACITY EXPANSION
Capacity Expansion in Reference
Capacity Expansion in Baseline 2009
350.0
350.0
300.0
300.0
250.0
250.0
212.7
9.3
GW
0.0
4.5 97.4
11.1 6.4 2000-2010
10.0
108.1
150.0
9.0
55.6 41.6
150.0
54.3
4.5 100.0
34.1 50.0
60.9
14.3 2010-2020
Oil
133.3
200.0
110.5
50.0
162.4
132.5
200.0
100.0
RES
0.0 2020-2030
14.2
Gas
46.0
66.2
54.0
45.8
71.3
Solids
line 2009 scenario follows a continuously increasing trend, whereas the Reference scenario sees a peak between 2015 and 2020 in order to achieve the 2020 targets, followed by a reduction of investments between 2020 and 2025 and then a renewed growth after that time period.
99.3 12.1 6.4
14.6
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030
in 2020 and 20.7% in 2030 of power generation, compared to 18.5% in 2030 of the Baseline 2009 scenario.12 The system reserve margin13 is 1.34 in 2020 and decreases to 1.27 in 2030; compared to the Baseline 2009 the values are higher in 2020 where the reserve margin is 1.3 while reserve margins are similar in both scenarios for 2030.
Nuclear
As in the Baseline 2009, gas power capacity sees a lower growth than previously projected in the Baseline 2007 scenario.
Input into gas power plants also decreases due to the lower rate of use of gas fired power plants (see Table 4). Nonetheless gas power plants are necessary to balance for the high amount of intermittent RES in the system. Whereas in the Baseline scenario the capacity of gas power plants rises steadily over the time period, in the Reference scenario the increase to
2020 is lower and the rise faster after 2020. The perDue to the RES target the scenario experiences incentage of peak load plants among gas power plant creased capacity expansion between 2010 and 2020; the capacity expansion slows down FIGURE 29: SHARE OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUELS POWER GENERATION AND FOSSIL between 2020 and 2030 after the FUEL INPUT TO POWER GENERATION target has been met (see Figure Fossil Fuels in Power Share of Gas in Fossil Fuel 28). Between 2015 and 2020 reGeneration (Mtoe) based Power Generation (%) newable energies represent the 500 48 480 46 bulk of overall investment in the 460 44 440 capacity accounting for almost 420 42 400 80%, the largest amount of which 40 380 360 38 being devoted to wind on-shore, 340 36 320 followed by wind off-shore and so34 300 2005 2020 2030 2005 2020 2030 lar. The power investment pattern Baseline Baseline 394 384 344 38.4 46 44.4 in the Baseline 2009 scenario is 2009 2009 Baseline Baseline different as the scenario does not 392 425 416 40.3 44.7 42.8 2007 2007 have targets to be met in 2020. For Reference Reference 394 327 320 38.4 44.7 44.7 RES power investment, the Base-
12
Intermittent resources are: wind (on-shore and off-shore), solar and tidal/wave. The shares are calculated based on net power generation. 13 The ratio of total installed capacity to peak load.
technologies is slightly higher in the Reference scenario compared to the Baseline 2009, both in 2020 and 2030.
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
43
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
REFERENCE SCENARIO
14
TABLE 4: DETAILS ON GAS USE IN POWER GENERATION Baseline 2009 2010 2015 2020
2025
2030
249.8
250.3
266.9
269.4
40.1% 35.7%
38.3%
35.8%
32.3%
142
151
150
137
20102015
20152020
20202025
20252030
50.7
15.5
29.4
16.6
Capacity [GWe] (net) 217.8 Rate of Use Fuel Input in Gas Power Plants [Mtoe]
143
Capacity Investment [GW]
Reference 2010 2015
2020
2025
2030
243.3
237.9
253.6
268.3
39.1% 34.1%
33.6%
33.1%
29.9%
131
123
129
124
20102015
20152020
20202025
20252030
46
9.5
27.3
27
Capacity [GWe] (net) 216.0 Rate of Use Fuel Input in Gas Power Plants [Mtoe]
139
Capacity Investment [GW]
The share of electricity from CHP reaches 18% in 2015 and rises to 19% by 2025. This represents a large increase compared to the 2007 Baseline and a slight increase compared to the 2009 Baseline which can be brought back to two factors: the use of biomass in a CHP plant is more efficient than with other uses, so the increase in RES causes an increase in CHP; and the cogeneration directive is further implemented facilitating the construction of CHP power plants. Due to the combination of these effects, the decarbonisation of power generation has a declining trend. Driven by the RES target the decarbonisation follows a steeper trajectory than the Baseline 2009 scenario up to 2020. After 2020 the decarbonisation slows down as the low carbon price does not drive a further fast decarbonisation (see Figure 30). The price of electricity in the Reference scenario increases up to 2020. However, electricity prices remain approximately the same as in the Baseline 2009 (see Figure 31 and Figure 16). Lower auctioning expenditure as well as lower fuel and variable costs compensate for the higher capital costs, which are due to the larger amount of RES in the Reference case.
CCS power plant capacity in 2020 reflects construction of demonstration plants, but thereafter no large increase in capacity is seen up to 2030, contrasting the Baseline scenario. The carbon price of 16.5€’08/tCO2 in 2020 and 18.7€’08/tCO2 in 2030 does not provide a sufficient incentive for the development of this technology. This also explains why the Reference scenario has a higher carbon intensity value for power generation in 2030.
FIGURE 30: CARBON INTENSITY AND OTHER INDICATORS FOR POWER GENERATION Carbon Intensity of Power generation (tCO2/MWh) 0.40
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) 40.4 40.3
0.38
0.35
0.36
39.9
2015
2020
38.5
0.32
0.30
39.9 39.1 37.6
0.28
0.25
0.24
0.20
0.23
0.21
2000
2005
2010
2025
2030
% of electricity from CHP
0.15
Baseline 2007
18.2
18.4
19.0
19.3
2015
2020
2025
2030
14.9
0.10
Baseline 2009
0.05
11.4
11.7
2000
2005
Reference 2009
0.00 2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2010
14
Rate of use is calculated as net electricity generation divided by net capacity multiplied with the hours of a year (8760 hours).
44
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
REFERENCE SCENARIO
FIGURE 31: IMPACTS ON COSTS AND PRICES OF ELECTRICITY billion € 450
250
Reference: Structure of Electricity Costs
400
Reference: After tax Electricity Prices in EUR/MWh
Gross Sales margin
350
Tax on Fuels and Auction Fuel and variable
300 250 200 150
200
Grid
150
100
Capital and O&M
50
0 2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
Reference: Pre-tax price of electricity in EUR/MWh
92.4 11.1 29.4
120.7 10.3 10.1
120.2 13.1 7.0
Gross Sales margin
36.7
38.4
9.5
10.8
Tax on Fuels and Auction Fuel and variable
7.4
50
0
Grid
43.3
54.1
2010
2020
51.0
Capital and O&M 2030
Impacts on Primary Energy Supply The primary energy demand in the Reference scenario decreases 4% between 2005 and 2030; this represents a major reduction from previous projections.
Average Industry Services Households
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
96 59 123 127
104 71 124 133
110 78 125 145
126 90 139 165
141 97 155 186
144 99 158 190
141 95 154 186
FIGURE 32: PRIMARY ENERGY REQUIREMENTS IMPORTS OF FOSSIL FUELS
AND
NET
Reference: Primary Energy Requirements 2000 Mtoe
1500
The amount of fossil fuels in total primary energy supply is lower compared to the Baseline 2007 and
RES Natural gas Oil Solids Nuclear
1000
the Baseline 2009 scenarios, due to the achievement of the RES targets. This has positive impacts on security of supply as it reduces the imports compared to previous projections. Oil import dependency is decreased due to the reduced oil demand caused by the RES-transport target. The imports of solids in 2030 remain almost unchanged from the Baseline 2009 scenario.
500
0
Reference: Net Imports (EU27) 1200 1000
In absolute terms the amount of natural gas is lower than in the new and old Baseline scenarios. This gives rise to lower gas import dependency; natural gas imports are only 24% higher in this scenario compared to 2005 levels, which is a considerable decrease from the Baseline 2007 as well as from the Baseline 2009 projections.
Mtoe
800 600 400 200
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Natural gas 135 Oil 536 Solids 82
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
145 512 79
193 533 99
257 600 127
288 580 122
307 610 125
301 608 122
315 600 133
318 578 129
45
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
REFERENCE SCENARIO
The share of gas in the reference case is lower than in the Baseline due to the lower ETS carbon prices and the higher share of RES. This leads to a flat gas share in the medium term followed by a slight decline from 2020 onwards, contrary to Baseline developments. FIGURE 33: SHARE OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUELS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOSSIL FUEL USE
Share of Gas in Total Fossil Fuel Consumption (%) 35 34 33 32 31 30 29
Baseline 2009 Baseline 2007 Reference
2005
2020
2030
30.9 31.1 30.9
33.6 32.6 32.2
34.4 33.1 32.6
Fossil Fuels in Total Primary Energy (Mtoe) 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000
Baseline 2009 Baseline 2007 Reference
Impacts on Emissions and RES Indicators CO2 emission reductions reach 13% compared to 2005 levels in 2020 and they further decrease by 17% in 2030. As in the Baseline scenario reductions occur for energy related CO2 emissions, but not for non-energy related CO2. It is interesting to note that the EU greenhouse gas emission target of -20% in 2020 compared to 1990 is met internally, although the ETS cap includes in the modelling and in reality the flexibility to use a certain amount of CDM. Emissions in this scenario decrease in the ETS and the non-ETS sectors due to the non-ETS obligations. EU internal emissions from the ETS sectors, including aviation, reduce approx. 19% by 2020 and 20% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The non-ETS sectors reduce by 9.4% in 2020, thereby achieving the aggregated national non-ETS targets at EU level. Non-ETS emissions are projected to further decrease 15.7% by 2030, largely due to the energy efficiency policies.
46
2005
2020
2030
1443 1430 1443
1377 1548 1277
1278 1560 1206
FIGURE 34: CO2 EMISSIONS Reference: Emissions (Mt CO2) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
1990
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
CO2 Emissions (non-energy related)
330
304
280
294
310
320
329
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
4031
3947
3740
3665
3403
3345
3194
All CO2
4360
4251
4021
3959
3714
3665
3522
Reference: Emissions (Mt CO2) 5000 4000
3000 2000 1000 0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
non-ETS CO2
1872
1879
1861
1758
1679
1595
ETS CO2
2379
2142
2098
1956
1986
1928
Total CO2
4251
4021
3959
3714
3665
3522
Index (2005=100) CO2 emissions (energy related) CO2 emissions (non-energy related) non-CO2 GHG emissions Total GHG emissions ETS emissions (all GHGs) non ETS emissions (all GHGs) Cumulative Emissions (MtCO2eq)
Reference 2020 2030 86 81 102 108 79 78 86 82 81 80 91 84 2008-2030 104685
Baseline 2009 2020 2030 94 80 100 105 87 86 93 82 89 73 96 91 2008-2030 108085
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
REFERENCE SCENARIO
The transport sector experiences a large reduction in emissions compared to previous projections. Reference case emissions related to transport peak in
FIGURE 36: RES INDICATORS Reference: RES Indicators normalised Eurostat definitions) 40.0
2015 and decline thereafter reaching values below the 2005 level by 2030. The main drivers to achieve this reduction are technological improvements, the CO2 from cars regulation, and the increased RES contribution.
35.0 30.0 25.0
20.0 15.0
FIGURE 35: CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR
10.0
CO2 emissions in the Transport Sector 1200
2.900
5.0
2.912
0.0
2.837 Aviation
1000
MtCO2
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
RES-Heating and Cooling
9.0
10.0
11.9
15.5
20.8
20.8
21.3
Inl. Navigation
1100
900
2.707
Rail
2.644 800
RES-Electricity
13.7
15.2
18.7
24.3
32.5
33.7
35.9
RES-Transport
0.5
1.4
4.2
6.5
10.0
10.9
12.5
RES % Gross Final Demand
7.6
8.6
11.0
14.6
20.0
20.7
22.2
Road
Member States have declared that they expect to achieve their RES target for 2020 largely through na-
700 Carbon intensity (t CO2/toe)
600 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Renewable energy sources in 2020 reach the 20% share in gross final energy demand according to the target for that year, and the 10% renewable energy in the transport sector target is also met. The share of biofuels in petrol and diesel consumption amounts to 9.4%. To achieve the 20% overall target the percentage of RES in heating and cooling increases to about 21% rising above the levels projected in the Baseline 2009. The share of RES further increases to 22.2% by 2030, driven mainly by a continued rise in the electricity sector and a slight increase in the transport sector.
tional developments making only limited use of the co-operation mechanism among Member States; this is reflected in the model. The RES in heating and cooling is driven by the direct use of RES for these purposes. The main type of RES used for heating purposes is biomass and this source rises continuously until 2020, but experiences a slowdown thereafter due to increased substitution with electricity (heat pumps) and reduced final energy demand. The technology that experiences a major increase is solar thermal, which almost doubles, as can be seen in Figure 37.
330
40
310
30
290
20
270
10
250
0
230
50
330
40
310
30
290
20
270
10
250
0
230
Biomass-waste
Solar thermal
Biomass-waste
Solar thermal
Geothermal heat
Final Energy Demand
Geothermal heat
Final Energy Demand
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
Final Energy Demand (Mtoe)
50
RES in the Residential Sector in the Baseline 2009 Scenario RES use (Mtoe)
RES use (Mtoe)
RES in the Residential Sector in the Reference Scenario
Final Energy Demand (Mtoe)
FIGURE 37: DIRECT USE OF RES IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
47
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
REFERENCE SCENARIO
Conclusions The Reference Scenario confirms the more favourable trends of the Baseline 2009 scenario compared to the Baseline 2007 scenario. Furthermore it depicts considerable changes relative to the Baseline 2009 scenario because of the additional policies considered. The RES target and additional energy efficiency measures cause a reduction in the use of fossil fuels that allow the ETS cap to be reached through lower carbon prices. The achievement of the RES and nonETS targets imply that emissions decrease faster until 2020, when the targets are met and start converging to the values of the Baseline 2009 between 2020 and 2030; cumulative emissions however remain significantly lower. Electricity prices remain almost unchanged compared to the Baseline 2009 scenario, as the increase in capital costs is compensated by the decrease in auctioning payments as well as in fuel and variable costs. The lower carbon price does not allow a competitive marketing of CCS; the already planned demonstration power plants will be constructed and only marginal further development is projected until 2030. The carbon intensity of the power sector in this scenario in 2030 is therefore higher than in the Baseline 2009. The major difference between the two scenarios is the lower ETS carbon price induced by the RES target and the increased energy efficiency policies in the presence of oversupply of allowances following the crisis and the possibility to bank allowances. The lower carbon price has implications on the power generation development and for the structure of primary energy demand.
48
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
6.
REFERENCE SCENARIO
General Conclusions
The new Baseline 2009 and the Reference scenarios both show a very different picture than the Baseline 2007 scenario. The main reasons for this are the inclusion of many more policies and the economic cri-
The carbon prices resulting from the scheme are different in the two scenarios.
sis starting in autumn 2008 that has been taken into account. Both scenarios due to the economic crisis and to the implementation of energy efficiency policies see a decrease in primary energy consumption and a decrease in the use of fossil fuels which has a positive effect on security of supply reducing the necessity of imports from outside the EU including from geopolitical unstable regions. The Reference scenario due to the RES target shows lower fossil fuel consumption than the Baseline 2009 scenario which has implications on the carbon price. Both scenarios include the EU-Emissions Trading Scheme, which due to the facility to bank allowances can be treated modelling-wise as a cumulative cap 2008-2030 for the sectors covered by the scheme. The inclusion of the amended ETS Directive together with more policies on energy efficiency and RES implies that emissions are lower than the Baseline 2007 scenario.
The Baseline 2009 scenario results in carbon prices of 25€/tCO2 in 2020 and 39€/tCO2 in 2030; this price, under the technological and economic assumptions of the model is likely to give enough security to investors to undertake investments in CCS technology.
In the Reference scenario the carbon price is projected to be 16.5€/tCO2 in 2020 and 18.7€/tCO2 in 2030.
This lower price of carbon is due to the larger amount of RES in the power sector and lower electricity demand following eco-design measures. In the reference scenario this ETS price is not sufficient to allow additional investments in CCS technology. The price of electricity in the two scenarios increases considerably compared to current levels following structural change of capacity, higher fuel prices and costs for purchasing allowances. In the Reference scenario the higher capital costs caused by the investments in RES technologies are compensated by the lower ETS auction purchase, fuel and variable costs, so that electricity prices in the reference case are similar to those of the Baseline. It should be noted, however, that a corollary of the auction purchase costs are government revenues. Summarizing the scenarios both imply lower primary energy consumption, therefore higher security of supply compared to previous projections, lower emissions, but considerably higher costs of electricity. The implementation of the RES target and the additional energy efficiency measures causes very different carbon prices in the two scenarios.
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
49
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
GLOSSARY
GLOSSARY Aviation: Aviation activity includes only intra EU air transportation. Energy consumption in aviation reflects sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, irrespectively of airplane destination. Bio-fuels: Bio-fuels include ethanol and biodiesel Carbon capture and storage (CCS): Carbon capture and geological storage is a technique for trapping carbon dioxide emitted from large point sources, compressing it, and transporting it to a suitable storage site where it is injected into the ground. Carbon intensity: The amount of CO2 emitted per unit of energy consumed or produced (t of CO2/tonne of oil equivalent (toe) or MWh). Clean coal technologies: These innovative technologies are designed to enhance the efficiency and environmental acceptability of coal extraction, preparation and use. Among the most promising technologies are fluidised-bed combustion (PFBC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) and coal gasification. CO2 Emissions to GDP: The amount of CO2 emitted per unit of GDP (carbon intensity of GDP - t of CO2/M Euro). Cogeneration thermal plant: A system using a common energy source to produce both electricity and steam for other uses, resulting in increased fuel efficiency (see also: CHP). Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plant (CCGT): A technology which combines gas turbines and steam turbines, connected to one or more electrical generators at the same plant. The gas turbine (usually fuelled by natural gas or oil) produces mechanical power, which drives the generator, and heat in the form of hot exhaust gases. These gases are fed to a boiler, where steam is raised at pressure to drive a conventional steam turbine, which is also connected to an electrical generator. This has the effect of producing additional electricity from the same fuel compared to an open cycle turbine. Combined Heat and Power (CHP): This means cogeneration of useful heat and power (electricity) in a single process. In contrast to conventional power plants that convert only a limited part of the primary energy into electricity with the remainder of this en-
50
ergy being discharged as waste heat, CHP makes use of large parts of this energy for e.g. industrial processes, district heating, and space heating. CHP therefore improves energy efficiency (see also: cogeneration thermal plant). Efficiency for thermal electricity production: It measures efficiency of fuel conversion into electricity and useful heat. It is calculated as heat and electricity output divided by the calorific value of input fuel. Efficiency indicator in freight transport (activity related): Energy efficiency in freight transport is computed on the basis of energy use per tonne-km. Given the existence of inconsistencies between transport and energy statistics, absolute numbers (especially at the level of individual Member States) might be misleading in some cases. For that reason, the numbers given are only illustrative of the trends in certain cases. Efficiency indicator in passenger transport (activity related): Energy efficiency in passenger transport is computed on the basis of energy use per passenger-km travelled. Issues related to consistency of transport and energy statistics also apply to passenger transport (see also: Efficiency indicator in freight transport). Energy branch consumption: Energy consumed in refineries, electricity and steam generation and in other transformation processes. Energy intensity: energy consumption/GDP or another indicator for economic activity. Energy intensive industries: Iron and steel, nonferrous, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and paper and pulp industries. EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS): A scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community established by Directive 2003/87/EC in order to promote reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective and economically efficient manner. Installations included in the scheme are combustion plants, oil refineries, coke ovens, iron and steel plants, and factories producing cement, glass, lime, brick, ceramics, pulp and paper. Recent amendments (2008/101/EC and 2009/29/EC) have enlarged its scope, including aviation and further process emissions.
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
Feed-in tariff: The price per unit of electricity that a utility or supplier has to pay for renewable electricity. Final energy demand: Energy finally consumed in the transport, industrial, household, services and agriculture sectors; the latter two sectors are sometimes aggregated and named "tertiary". It excludes deliveries to the energy transformation sector (e.g. power plants) and to the energy branch. It includes electricity consumption in the above mentioned final demand sectors. Freight transport activity: Includes energy consuming transportation of commodities on roads, by rail and by inland navigation. Fuel cells: A fuel cell is an electrochemical energy conversion device converting hydrogen and oxygen into electricity and heat with the help of catalysts. The fuel cell provides a direct current voltage that can be used to power various electrical devices including motors and lights. Fuel input to power generation: Fuel use in power plants and CHP plants.
GLOSSARY
Hydro power plant: A plant producing energy with the use of moving water. In this report, hydro excludes pumped storage plants that generate electricity during peak load periods by using water previously pumped into an elevated storage reservoir during offpeak periods when excess generating capacity is available. Energy losses in pumping are accounted for separately. Inland navigation: It includes both waterborne inland transport activity and domestic sea shipping. However, international short sea shipping is not included in the above category as, according to EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to bunkers. Import dependency: It shows the extent to which a country relies upon imports in order to meet its energy needs. Non fossil fuels: Nuclear and renewable energy sources.
Gas: Includes natural gas, blast furnace gas, cokeoven gas and gasworks gas.
Non-energy uses: Non-energy consumption of energy carriers in petrochemicals and other sectors, such as chemical feed-stocks, lubricants and asphalt for road construction.
Gas to liquids (GTL): A refinery process to convert natural gas or other gaseous hydrocarbons into longer-chain hydrocarbons.
Nuclear power plant: A plant in which a nuclear fission chain reaction can be initiated, controlled, and sustained at a specific rate.
Generation capacity: The maximum rated output of a generator, prime mover, or other electric power production equipment under specific conditions designated by the manufacturer.
Oil: Includes crude oil, feed-stocks, refinery gas, liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene, gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil, naphtha and other petroleum products.
Geothermal plant: A plant in which the prime mover is a steam turbine, which is driven either by steam produced from hot water or by natural steam that derives its energy from heat in rocks or fluids beneath the surface of the earth. The energy is extracted by drilling and/or pumping. Gross Inland Consumption (or primary energy consumption): Quantity of energy consumed within the borders of a country. It is calculated as primary production + recovered products + imports +/- stock changes – exports – bunkers (i.e. quantities supplied to international sea-shipping). Gross Inland Consumption/GDP: Energy intensity indicator calculated as the ratio of total energy consumption to GDP – (toe/M Euro).
Peak devices: Gas turbines, internal combustion engines and other small scale thermal power plants which are usually used to supply electricity in peak hours. Passenger transport activity: Passenger transport activity includes energy consuming passenger transport on roads (public and private), by rail, in airplanes and on ships as far as this takes place on rivers, canals, lakes and as domestic sea shipping; international short sea shipping is not included as, according to EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to bunkers. Primary production: Total indigenous production. In Primes result sheets it also includes recovered products. Renewable energy sources: Energy resources that are naturally replenishing but flow-limited. They are
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
51
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
GLOSSARY
virtually inexhaustible in duration but limited in the amount of energy that is available per unit of time. Renewable energy resources include: biomass, waste energy, hydro, wind, geothermal, solar, wave and tidal energy. Solar power plant: A plant producing energy with the use of radiant energy from the sun; includes solar thermal and photovoltaic (direct conversion of solar energy into electricity) plants. Solids: Include both primary products (hard coal and lignite) and derived fuels (patent fuels, coke, tar, pitch and benzol). Supercritical polyvalent units: A power plant for which the evaporator part of the boiler operates at pressures above 22.1 Mega Pascals (MPa). The cycle-medium in this case is a single phase fluid with homogenous properties and thus there is no need to separate steam from water in a drum, allowing for higher efficiency in power generation. Thermal power plants: Type of electric generating station in which the source of energy for the prime mover is heat (nuclear power plants are excluded). Useful energy: The portion of final energy which is actually available after final conversion to the consumer for the respective use. In final conversion, electricity becomes for instance light, mechanical energy or heat. Windfall profit: An unexpected profit received by the profiting party without any particular performance. Wind power plant: Typically a group of wind turbines supplying electricity directly to a consumer or interconnected to a common transmission or distribution system. Offshore wind includes windmills located at sea (coastal wind mills are usually included in onshore wind).
52
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 1
APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC AND MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
53
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 1
BASELINE SCENARIO EU-27: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
470.4 2.7 176.2
481.1 2.5 195.1
499.4 2.3 216.8
513.8 2.2 231.3
519.9 2.2 240.8
0.2 -0.8 1.0
0.4 -0.7 1.1
0.3 -0.4 0.6
0.1 -0.3 0.4
8142.7 4714.3 7304.8 1370.8 54.1 23.4 116.2 39.5 65.6 126.9 80.2 180.5 99.8 524.1 180.2 542.7 4963.3 175.4
10107.2 5853.9 9017.0 1597.2 56.4 33.1 154.8 57.4 73.9 146.8 91.0 203.3 86.1 648.0 194.9 554.0 6365.3 190.7
11385.6 6495.6 10135.9 1690.2 53.8 28.9 186.3 79.3 71.4 143.2 94.1 214.9 64.7 722.5 204.7 561.7 7398.6 182.3
14164.0 8077.2 12655.5 2059.6 61.7 34.2 229.0 106.4 83.9 170.6 115.7 263.1 63.6 905.7 247.9 707.6 9359.8 197.6
16824.7 9423.1 15051.1 2409.1 68.5 39.1 271.9 137.2 96.3 199.8 139.6 316.2 60.9 1060.5 295.9 829.8 11235.8 217.4
2.2 2.2 2.1 1.5 0.4 3.5 2.9 3.8 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 -1.5 2.1 0.8 0.2 2.5 0.8
1.2 1.0 1.2 0.6 -0.5 -1.3 1.9 3.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.6 -2.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 1.5 -0.5
2.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 3.0 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.0 -0.2 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.4 0.8
1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.6 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.9 -0.4 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.0
18.8 0.7 0.3 1.6 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.1 2.5 1.4 7.2 2.5 7.4 67.9 2.4
17.7 0.6 0.4 1.7 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.0 2.3 1.0 7.2 2.2 6.1 70.6 2.1
16.7 0.5 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.7 1.4 0.9 2.1 0.6 7.1 2.0 5.5 73.0 1.8
16.3 0.5 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.7 1.3 0.9 2.1 0.5 7.2 2.0 5.6 74.0 1.6
16.0 0.5 0.3 1.8 0.9 0.6 1.3 0.9 2.1 0.4 7.0 2.0 5.5 74.7 1.4
252.7
309.8
303.1
330.8
358.9
2.1
-0.2
0.9
0.8
3.5
3.4
3.0
2.6
2.4
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
EU15: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
Annual % Change Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
363.5 2.6 140.3
375.5 2.4 155.9
396.4 2.3 175.7
411.9 2.2 189.1
420.9 2.1 198.5
0.3 -0.7 1.1
0.5 -0.7 1.2
0.4 -0.4 0.7
0.2 -0.3 0.5
7662.1 4457.8 6881.7 1287.0 48.9 22.7 110.1 37.9 60.8 122.1 77.9 165.2 89.9 498.2 169.1 506.1 4725.1 145.7
9563.2 5535.7 8535.9 1505.8 52.1 31.8 147.9 54.5 68.2 141.2 87.6 184.0 78.8 619.4 182.4 520.7 6062.4 167.3
10618.8 6047.8 9466.0 1549.1 49.5 27.1 176.9 75.0 63.7 134.7 88.9 190.7 58.2 669.2 179.2 517.8 6975.4 152.2
13109.5 7463.8 11714.3 1866.5 57.0 32.1 216.2 99.9 73.9 159.3 108.5 229.0 56.3 829.1 213.6 643.5 8748.5 161.0
15518.3 8663.8 13877.4 2184.2 63.7 36.9 255.9 128.3 84.8 186.6 130.9 275.0 53.8 971.3 256.1 754.4 10443.1 176.3
2.2 2.2 2.2 1.6 0.6 3.4 3.0 3.7 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.1 -1.3 2.2 0.8 0.3 2.5 1.4
1.1 0.9 1.0 0.3 -0.5 -1.6 1.8 3.2 -0.7 -0.5 0.1 0.4 -3.0 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 1.4 -0.9
2.1 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.9 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.8 -0.3 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.3 0.6
1.7 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.8 -0.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 0.9
18.7 0.7 0.3 1.6 0.6 0.9 1.8 1.1 2.4 1.3 7.2 2.5 7.4 68.7 2.1
17.6 0.6 0.4 1.7 0.6 0.8 1.7 1.0 2.2 0.9 7.3 2.1 6.1 71.0 2.0
16.4 0.5 0.3 1.9 0.8 0.7 1.4 0.9 2.0 0.6 7.1 1.9 5.5 73.7 1.6
15.9 0.5 0.3 1.8 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.9 2.0 0.5 7.1 1.8 5.5 74.7 1.4
15.7 0.5 0.3 1.8 0.9 0.6 1.3 0.9 2.0 0.4 7.0 1.8 5.4 75.3 1.3
217.7
279.7
271.6
294.8
319.5
2.5
-0.3
0.8
0.8
3.2
3.3
2.9
2.5
2.3
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
NM-12: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million)
106.9 3.0 35.9
105.5 2.7 39.2
103.0 2.5 41.2
102.0 2.4 42.2
99.1 2.3 42.3
-0.1 -1.0 0.9
-0.2 -0.7 0.5
-0.1 -0.3 0.2
-0.3 -0.3 0.0
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture
480.5 256.4 423.1 83.7 5.2 0.6 6.1 1.6 4.8 4.8 2.3 15.3 9.9 25.9 11.1 36.5 238.1 29.7
543.9 318.2 481.1 91.4 4.3 1.3 6.8 2.9 5.7 5.6 3.4 19.3 7.2 28.6 12.5 33.3 302.9 23.4
766.8 447.8 669.9 141.2 4.3 1.8 9.4 4.3 7.7 8.5 5.2 24.2 6.5 53.3 25.5 44.0 423.2 30.1
1054.5 613.4 941.2 193.1 4.7 2.1 12.7 6.5 10.1 11.3 7.2 34.1 7.3 76.6 34.3 64.1 611.3 36.6
1306.4 759.3 1173.7 224.9 4.7 2.2 16.0 8.9 11.5 13.2 8.7 41.2 7.1 89.2 39.8 75.5 792.8 41.1
1.2 2.2 1.3 0.9 -1.9 7.4 1.2 6.2 1.8 1.4 4.0 2.3 -3.1 1.0 1.2 -0.9 2.4 -2.4
3.5 3.5 3.4 4.4 0.0 3.3 3.2 4.0 3.1 4.3 4.3 2.3 -1.0 6.4 7.4 2.8 3.4 2.6
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.2 0.9 1.4 3.1 4.2 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.5 1.1 3.7 3.0 3.8 3.7 2.0
2.2 2.2 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.4 2.3 3.3 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.9 -0.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.6 1.2
19.8 1.2 0.2 1.4 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.5 3.6 2.3 6.1 2.6 8.6 56.3 7.0
19.0 0.9 0.3 1.4 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.7 4.0 1.5 6.0 2.6 6.9 63.0 4.9
21.1 0.6 0.3 1.4 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.8 3.6 1.0 7.9 3.8 6.6 63.2 4.5
20.5 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.8 3.6 0.8 8.1 3.6 6.8 64.9 3.9
19.2 0.4 0.2 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 3.5 0.6 7.6 3.4 6.4 67.5 3.5
35.0
30.1
31.5
36.1
39.4
-1.5
0.5
1.4
0.9
8.3
6.3
4.7
3.8
3.4
Energy sector Source: GEM-E3
54
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 1
BASELINE SCENARIO AUSTRIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
7.6 2.6 3.0
8.0 2.5 3.2
8.4 2.3 3.7
8.7 2.2 4.0
9.0 2.1 4.3
0.5 -0.3 0.8
0.5 -1.0 1.5
0.4 -0.4 0.8
0.3 -0.4 0.7
174.5 101.2 154.4 31.1 1.6 0.9 1.6 0.4 2.6 2.4 1.1 3.5 1.9 11.6 4.9 11.7 104.2 3.9
225.0 123.5 201.4 38.8 2.0 1.3 2.4 1.0 2.5 3.4 1.5 4.2 1.4 15.5 6.2 15.0 138.4 3.7
254.5 137.7 228.4 44.8 2.1 1.0 3.5 1.5 2.4 3.6 1.8 4.8 1.2 19.8 6.4 14.9 158.6 3.3
310.4 167.1 279.9 54.7 2.5 1.2 4.5 2.3 2.9 4.1 2.0 5.8 1.2 24.9 7.7 17.8 196.0 3.5
363.5 192.8 328.6 64.3 2.8 1.4 5.4 3.2 3.3 4.6 2.1 6.8 1.1 29.9 8.9 21.0 230.4 3.9
2.6 2.0 2.7 2.2 2.0 3.3 4.3 9.2 -0.5 3.2 2.6 1.7 -3.1 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.9 -0.5
1.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.7 -2.4 3.8 4.4 -0.2 0.6 1.7 1.3 -1.8 2.5 0.5 0.0 1.4 -1.1
2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.6 2.1 2.6 4.2 1.7 1.3 1.1 2.0 0.1 2.3 1.8 1.8 2.1 0.7
1.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.9 3.3 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.7 -0.4 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.0
20.1 1.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 1.7 1.6 0.7 2.3 1.2 7.5 3.1 7.6 67.5 2.5
19.2 1.0 0.6 1.2 0.5 1.2 1.7 0.7 2.1 0.7 7.7 3.1 7.4 68.8 1.8
19.6 0.9 0.4 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.6 0.8 2.1 0.5 8.7 2.8 6.5 69.4 1.5
19.5 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.5 0.7 2.1 0.4 8.9 2.7 6.4 70.0 1.3
19.6 0.9 0.4 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.7 2.1 0.3 9.1 2.7 6.4 70.1 1.2
3.5
5.5
6.8
7.8
9.0
4.6
2.1
1.5
1.4
2.3
2.7
3.0
2.8
2.8
2010
2020
BELGIUM: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
9.9 2.6 3.9
10.2 2.4 4.2
10.8 2.3 4.7
11.3 2.2 5.1
11.7 2.1 5.5
0.3 -0.6 0.9
0.5 -0.5 1.0
0.5 -0.4 0.9
0.4 -0.4 0.7
221.2 121.3 208.0 38.5 3.6 1.8 5.5 1.7 2.4 2.9 1.1 5.7 2.3 10.9 3.5 10.8 151.3 1.9
278.8 150.7 248.0 44.0 2.8 1.6 8.7 2.4 2.4 3.2 1.9 5.6 2.3 13.5 4.0 12.1 182.1 2.6
311.4 160.1 272.9 43.4 2.3 1.3 8.4 3.0 2.2 3.7 2.3 6.5 1.5 12.8 4.7 14.4 206.0 2.1
389.5 188.3 346.2 57.6 2.8 1.5 11.1 4.6 3.0 5.1 3.4 8.6 1.7 17.5 6.3 16.6 261.6 2.5
458.5 215.9 407.6 66.0 2.9 1.6 12.9 6.2 3.3 6.0 4.1 9.7 1.6 20.6 7.3 18.3 312.3 2.6
2.3 2.2 1.8 1.3 -2.2 -1.2 4.6 3.5 0.1 0.8 5.9 -0.2 0.0 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.9 3.2
1.1 0.6 1.0 -0.1 -2.2 -2.4 -0.3 2.4 -0.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 -3.7 -0.5 1.6 1.8 1.2 -2.1
2.3 1.6 2.4 2.9 1.9 2.0 2.8 4.4 3.0 3.5 4.1 2.8 1.2 3.1 3.0 1.4 2.4 1.7
1.6 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.5 0.6 1.6 3.0 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.2 -0.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.8 0.1
18.5 1.7 0.9 2.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.5 2.8 1.1 5.2 1.7 5.2 72.8 0.9
17.8 1.1 0.6 3.5 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.8 2.3 0.9 5.4 1.6 4.9 73.4 1.1
15.9 0.8 0.5 3.1 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.8 2.4 0.6 4.7 1.7 5.3 75.5 0.8
16.6 0.8 0.4 3.2 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.0 2.5 0.5 5.0 1.8 4.8 75.6 0.7
16.2 0.7 0.4 3.2 1.5 0.8 1.5 1.0 2.4 0.4 5.0 1.8 4.5 76.6 0.6
5.4
7.2
6.9
7.8
8.5
2.8
-0.3
1.2
0.8
2.6
2.9
2.5
2.3
2.1
BULGARIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
8.8 2.9 3.1
8.2 2.7 3.1
7.6 2.6 2.9
7.2 2.5 2.9
6.8 2.4 2.8
-0.7 -0.7 0.0
-0.8 -0.3 -0.5
-0.5 -0.3 -0.2
-0.6 -0.3 -0.3
20.1 12.8 18.4 3.8 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.1 8.6 3.9
16.9 11.5 14.3 2.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 8.5 1.7
25.8 17.9 20.8 3.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.0 12.9 1.8
34.7 20.7 29.1 6.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.4 17.8 1.9
42.2 21.1 35.4 7.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.6 0.9 2.2 1.2 1.6 22.0 1.6
-1.7 -1.1 -2.5 -5.4 -4.0 1.3 -2.3 10.4 -0.1 -7.5 -4.5 0.7 4.2 -6.1 -15.3 -4.5 -0.2 -7.9
4.3 4.5 3.8 5.5 -4.1 3.7 1.1 0.0 13.8 8.7 9.6 2.9 7.7 6.0 8.0 3.7 4.3 0.4
3.0 1.4 3.4 4.8 2.6 2.8 4.3 5.6 4.2 5.0 6.0 5.7 3.1 5.9 5.2 3.4 3.3 0.6
2.0 0.2 2.0 2.5 0.0 0.3 3.3 4.5 1.4 2.2 3.0 2.9 0.2 4.0 2.5 1.1 2.1 -1.6
20.9 1.3 0.5 1.4 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.5 2.6 1.1 4.7 7.6 6.1 46.9 21.0
15.4 1.1 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 3.5 2.1 3.2 1.9 4.9 59.1 11.9
18.0 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.5 1.5 1.1 0.7 3.2 3.0 4.0 2.8 4.9 61.7 8.5
20.6 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.6 1.6 1.3 0.9 4.0 2.9 5.0 3.3 4.9 61.0 6.5
21.7 0.4 0.6 1.4 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.0 4.4 2.5 6.1 3.5 4.5 62.0 4.5
0.9
1.2
1.4
2.0
2.6
3.0
1.5
3.6
2.5
5.0
8.6
6.8
7.0
7.3
Source: GEM-E3
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
55
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 1
BASELINE SCENARIO CYPRUS: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million)
0.6 3.3 0.2
0.7 3.1 0.2
0.8 2.8 0.3
1.0 2.5 0.4
1.1 2.3 0.5
1.9 -0.5 2.4
1.7 -1.0 2.8
1.5 -0.9 2.5
1.2 -0.8 2.0
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture
7.5 4.1 6.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 4.4 0.3
11.7 7.4 10.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 8.1 0.4
15.6 9.9 14.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.1 11.0 0.4
22.5 14.6 20.3 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.6 16.1 0.5
30.9 20.1 27.8 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.0 22.4 0.6
4.6 6.0 4.6 1.4
2.9 3.0 2.9 1.5
3.8 3.9 3.8 3.2
3.2 3.3 3.2 2.6
5.9 6.6 -1.5 28.8 41.2 4.6 -8.6 0.0 0.8 -0.9 6.3 0.2
0.7 1.2 3.9 1.4 2.0 2.4 -6.6 2.0 0.4 3.7 3.1 0.5
3.6 3.8 2.5 3.8 4.1 4.4 2.2 2.2 1.1 3.3 3.9 2.6
Energy sector
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.6
2.0
4.0
3.6
3.0 3.2 1.8 3.2 3.6 3.8 1.3 1.3 -0.5 2.8 3.4 2.0
14.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.4 1.9 0.1 0.0 3.7 2.9 2.1 2.8 12.8 65.4 5.2
10.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 3.7 0.7 1.4 1.9 7.4 77.0 3.4
8.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.5 3.5 0.3 1.2 1.5 8.0 78.3 2.7
8.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 3.7 0.2 1.1 1.1 7.7 79.5 2.4
7.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.6 4.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 7.4 80.6 2.1
3.0
2.4
1.9
2.1
2.0
2.0
CZECH REPUBLIC: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million)
10.4 2.9 3.6
10.3 2.6 3.9
10.4 2.3 4.5
10.5 2.2 4.7
10.4 2.2 4.8
-0.1 -0.9 0.8
0.1 -1.1 1.2
0.1 -0.4 0.6
-0.1 -0.3 0.1
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture
81.3 38.0 66.4 15.1 1.3 0.1 1.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 0.8 2.6 2.0 3.5 2.0 11.1 29.0 1.3
83.4 42.1 74.6 17.7 1.4 0.2 0.9 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.5 3.0 0.8 6.8 2.3 5.6 43.9 2.2
114.3 55.2 101.4 27.6 1.5 0.2 1.5 0.6 1.8 1.4 0.8 3.2 0.9 13.0 4.2 6.0 60.2 2.9
154.2 73.8 138.0 36.5 1.6 0.2 2.2 1.0 2.2 1.9 1.2 4.4 1.0 17.5 5.5 8.3 84.7 3.5
182.5 86.7 163.4 42.1 1.7 0.2 2.8 1.4 2.5 2.2 1.4 5.3 0.9 20.0 6.4 9.7 102.5 3.7
0.3 1.0 1.2 1.6 0.9 3.4 -2.4 1.8 3.1 -4.1 -3.8 1.3 -8.5 7.0 1.5 -6.6 4.2 5.1
3.2 2.7 3.1 4.5 0.4 0.3 5.6 6.4 2.8 2.9 4.3 0.7 1.1 6.7 6.3 0.7 3.2 2.9
3.0 2.9 3.1 2.8 1.0 1.2 3.7 4.9 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.3 1.0 3.0 2.8 3.2 3.5 1.8
1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.5 2.8 3.9 1.0 1.6 2.1 1.9 -0.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.9 0.7
22.8 1.9 0.2 1.7 0.4 1.5 2.4 1.2 3.9 3.0 5.2 2.9 16.7 43.6 2.0
23.8 1.9 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.8 1.4 0.7 4.0 1.1 9.1 3.1 7.5 58.9 2.9
27.2 1.4 0.2 1.5 0.6 1.8 1.4 0.8 3.1 0.9 12.8 4.1 5.9 59.4 2.8
26.4 1.2 0.2 1.6 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.8 3.2 0.7 12.7 4.0 6.0 61.3 2.5
25.7 1.0 0.2 1.7 0.9 1.5 1.3 0.9 3.3 0.6 12.2 3.9 5.9 62.7 2.3
9.9
5.1
4.7
5.1
5.5
-6.4
-1.0
1.0
0.6
15.0
6.9
4.6
3.7
3.3
Energy sector
DENMARK: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
5.1 2.3 2.2
5.3 2.2 2.4
5.5 2.1 2.6
5.7 2.1 2.8
5.8 2.0 2.9
0.4 -0.4 0.7
0.3 -0.4 0.7
0.3 -0.4 0.7
0.3 -0.4 0.7
150.8 74.3 132.4 20.6 0.4 0.1 1.1 0.7 1.0 2.1 1.3 4.9 0.8 7.0 3.1 8.9 97.2 1.8
194.8 89.6 168.0 23.5 0.5 0.2 2.6 2.2 1.1 2.2 1.6 4.5 0.6 8.5 3.3 9.9 122.5 2.7
209.0 97.4 177.5 24.7 0.2 0.1 3.5 3.1 1.0 2.2 1.7 4.4 0.4 9.3 3.5 8.9 131.6 2.6
245.9 112.9 210.1 28.2 0.2 0.1 4.2 3.7 1.1 2.6 2.0 5.0 0.3 10.7 3.9 10.6 157.5 2.8
289.6 133.2 247.5 33.0 0.2 0.2 5.1 4.6 1.3 3.0 2.4 5.9 0.3 12.4 4.6 12.7 186.4 3.1
2.6 1.9 2.4 1.3 1.0 3.4 9.2 11.5 0.7 0.3 2.5 -0.9 -2.2 2.0 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.3
0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 -7.2 -3.7 3.0 3.6 -0.8 0.4 0.5 -0.2 -5.6 0.9 0.7 -1.1 0.7 -0.6
1.6 1.5 1.7 1.3 -0.3 0.3 1.8 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 -1.0 1.4 1.0 1.8 1.8 0.9
1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 0.3 0.8 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 -1.0 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.0
15.6 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.0 3.7 0.6 5.3 2.4 6.7 73.5 1.3
14.0 0.3 0.1 1.6 1.3 0.6 1.3 1.0 2.7 0.4 5.1 2.0 5.9 72.9 1.6
13.9 0.1 0.1 2.0 1.7 0.6 1.3 1.0 2.5 0.2 5.2 2.0 5.0 74.2 1.4
13.4 0.1 0.1 2.0 1.8 0.5 1.2 0.9 2.4 0.2 5.1 1.9 5.1 75.0 1.3
13.3 0.1 0.1 2.1 1.9 0.5 1.2 1.0 2.4 0.1 5.0 1.8 5.1 75.3 1.2
3.9
9.4
9.7
11.0
12.3
9.2
0.3
1.2
1.1
2.9
5.6
5.5
5.2
5.0
Source: GEM-E3
56
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 1
BASELINE SCENARIO ESTONIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million)
1.6 2.6 0.6
1.4 2.4 0.6
1.3 2.2 0.6
1.3 2.1 0.6
1.3 2.0 0.6
-1.3 -0.6 -0.7
-0.3 -0.9 0.6
-0.2 -0.4 0.2
-0.3 -0.4 0.1
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture
8.3 3.9 7.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.2 3.6 0.8
7.6 3.9 6.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 4.5 0.4
11.2 5.3 9.2 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 5.9 0.3
15.4 6.7 13.4 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 8.7 0.3
19.4 8.0 16.8 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 11.0 0.3
-0.9 -0.1 -0.6 -4.7 -8.9
3.9 3.1 3.2 7.7 -18.3
8.0 15.0 14.3 -6.5 -5.6 -5.0 -11.6 8.1 -7.5 6.4 2.4 -6.6
8.0 23.5 8.4 5.3 6.6 4.8 4.3 9.3 9.6 2.6 2.7 -3.6
3.3 2.4 3.8 4.0 -2.5 2.3 6.5 8.1 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.9 2.2 4.5 4.0 4.8 3.8 0.4
2.3 1.7 2.3 2.6 -6.6 1.5 3.3 4.7 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.9 1.1 2.4 3.1 1.5 2.4 0.8
21.9 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 4.3 7.5 1.7 7.2 3.5 50.0 10.6
14.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 2.7 2.3 3.9 3.5 6.8 67.2 5.7
22.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.1 1.4 0.4 0.3 3.1 2.6 6.9 6.5 6.4 64.4 2.9
22.5 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.2 1.3 0.4 0.3 3.2 2.2 7.4 6.6 7.1 64.6 2.0
23.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.3 3.4 2.0 7.5 7.1 6.6 65.5 1.8
Energy sector
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
-8.6
-0.1
2.3
0.5
14.0
6.0
4.3
3.8
3.1
2010
2020
FINLAND: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million)
5.0
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.6
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.1
Average household size (persons)
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.9
-0.8
-0.8
-0.4
-0.4
Number of households (Million)
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.5
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05)
114.0
138.8
165.5
201.4
233.5
2.0
1.8
2.0
1.5
Households expenditure (in 000 M€05)
61.6
69.4
82.5
97.6
113.3
1.2
1.7
1.7
1.5
Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05)
99.4
122.1
142.7
175.5
203.4
2.1
1.6
2.1
1.5
Industry
15.2
25.6
32.6
40.1
44.9
5.3
2.4
2.1
1.1
15.3
21.0
22.8
22.9
22.1
iron and steel
0.5
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.8
7.8
2.7
1.6
0.7
0.5
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
non ferrous metals
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
4.6
-1.5
1.7
0.8
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
chemicals
1.2
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.3
3.8
1.1
1.1
0.2
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.1
0.2 0.8 3.8 1.4 1.4 0.8 3.9 2.3 10.1 67.4 4.4
0.3 0.9 5.6 1.1 1.6 0.6 10.1 3.2 7.7 81.7 4.0
0.4 1.1 5.5 1.6 2.4 0.5 15.7 3.5 7.9 94.7 3.8
0.5 1.3 6.6 2.2 3.0 0.5 20.3 3.9 9.6 117.1 4.3
0.6 1.4 7.4 2.7 3.4 0.4 23.3 4.2 11.0 138.2 4.4
3.6 0.3 3.9 -2.2 1.9 -3.4 9.9 3.5 -2.6 1.9 -1.0
2.3 2.3 -0.3 3.6 3.9 -2.1 4.5 0.8 0.2 1.5 -0.4
2.1 1.7 1.9 3.2 2.1 0.1 2.6 1.3 2.0 2.1 1.0
1.1 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.3 -0.8 1.4 0.5 1.3 1.7 0.4
0.2 0.9 3.9 1.4 1.4 0.8 4.0 2.3 10.1 67.8 4.4
0.3 0.7 4.6 0.9 1.4 0.5 8.3 2.6 6.3 66.9 3.3
0.3 0.8 3.8 1.1 1.7 0.3 11.0 2.4 5.5 66.3 2.7
0.3 0.7 3.8 1.3 1.7 0.3 11.5 2.2 5.5 66.7 2.4
0.3 0.7 3.7 1.3 1.7 0.2 11.5 2.0 5.4 68.0 2.2
2.3
3.1
3.7
4.4
4.9
2.9
2.0
1.7
1.0
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.4
2010
2020
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
FRANCE: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
56.6 2.6 21.8
58.8 2.4 24.7
62.6 2.3 27.7
65.6 2.2 30.5
68.0 2.1 32.4
0.4 -0.8 1.2
0.6 -0.5 1.2
0.5 -0.5 1.0
0.4 -0.3 0.6
1302.7 734.7 1169.9 146.0 4.9 1.9 15.8 6.6 6.2 13.7 8.7 21.9 10.1 56.0 15.5 88.6 882.7 29.6
1589.7 871.6 1429.0 189.6 7.7 4.6 18.5 9.6 8.6 16.5 10.2 27.1 8.4 77.4 20.8 82.8 1094.2 35.6
1759.1 975.2 1581.4 201.5 6.3 3.4 20.4 12.0 7.9 15.9 10.6 30.1 7.5 84.8 25.1 82.1 1233.5 32.9
2144.4 1165.1 1926.3 238.4 6.6 3.6 24.1 15.6 8.9 17.4 12.2 35.9 7.1 105.0 29.8 94.2 1523.0 32.6
2550.1 1346.9 2290.9 282.7 7.3 4.1 28.7 20.2 10.2 19.3 14.1 42.6 6.5 128.6 35.3 108.8 1822.2 34.3
2.0 1.7 2.0 2.7 4.6 9.3 1.6 3.8 3.3 1.9 1.7 2.2 -1.8 3.3 3.0 -0.7 2.2 1.9
1.0 1.1 1.0 0.6 -2.0 -3.0 1.0 2.2 -0.9 -0.4 0.4 1.1 -1.2 0.9 1.9 -0.1 1.2 -0.8
2.0 1.8 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.6 1.7 2.6 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.8 -0.5 2.2 1.7 1.4 2.1 -0.1
1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.6 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.7 -1.0 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.8 0.5
12.5 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.5 1.2 0.7 1.9 0.9 4.8 1.3 7.6 75.5 2.5
13.3 0.5 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.7 1.9 0.6 5.4 1.5 5.8 76.6 2.5
12.7 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.9 0.5 5.4 1.6 5.2 78.0 2.1
12.4 0.3 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.6 1.9 0.4 5.5 1.5 4.9 79.1 1.7
12.3 0.3 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.9 0.3 5.6 1.5 4.7 79.5 1.5
23.0
26.9
31.3
38.0
42.9
1.6
1.5
1.9
1.2
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
Source: GEM-E3
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
57
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 1
BASELINE SCENARIO GERMANY: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
79.1 2.4 33.7
82.2 2.2 36.7
82.1 2.1 40.0
81.5 2.0 40.5
80.2 2.0 40.3
0.4 -0.5 0.9
0.0 -0.9 0.9
-0.1 -0.2 0.1
-0.2 -0.1 -0.1
1830.3 1084.6 1611.4 395.0 14.3 5.5 32.1 7.9 12.5 31.6 22.1 38.9 15.6 189.6 54.9 104.2 1045.8 15.4
2177.2 1305.7 1943.1 425.1 14.6 10.0 39.5 11.2 14.7 34.2 21.3 39.1 9.6 219.2 44.2 101.2 1349.8 17.3
2281.5 1325.8 2063.5 463.9 14.5 8.9 50.6 18.3 12.3 30.5 19.2 37.5 6.7 261.5 41.4 70.7 1459.7 17.1
2723.6 1570.4 2440.9 544.8 16.7 10.4 58.9 24.3 13.5 34.6 22.5 43.8 6.7 312.6 47.6 81.9 1740.6 19.0
3008.8 1733.4 2696.5 593.2 18.0 11.5 65.0 30.1 14.3 38.1 25.5 49.4 6.4 337.9 52.7 89.4 1937.2 19.9
1.8 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 6.2 2.1 3.5 1.7 0.8 -0.3 0.0 -4.8 1.5 -2.2 -0.3 2.6 1.2
0.5 0.2 0.6 0.9 -0.1 -1.1 2.5 5.0 -1.8 -1.1 -1.1 -0.4 -3.5 1.8 -0.6 -3.5 0.8 -0.1
1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.9 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 0.0 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.1
1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 2.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.2 -0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.4
24.5 0.9 0.3 2.0 0.5 0.8 2.0 1.4 2.4 1.0 11.8 3.4 6.5 64.9 1.0
21.9 0.8 0.5 2.0 0.6 0.8 1.8 1.1 2.0 0.5 11.3 2.3 5.2 69.5 0.9
22.5 0.7 0.4 2.5 0.9 0.6 1.5 0.9 1.8 0.3 12.7 2.0 3.4 70.7 0.8
22.3 0.7 0.4 2.4 1.0 0.6 1.4 0.9 1.8 0.3 12.8 2.0 3.4 71.3 0.8
22.0 0.7 0.4 2.4 1.1 0.5 1.4 0.9 1.8 0.2 12.5 2.0 3.3 71.8 0.7
50.9
49.7
52.0
54.5
56.7
-0.2
0.5
0.5
0.4
3.2
2.6
2.5
2.2
2.1
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
GREECE: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
Annual % Change Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
10.1 3.0 3.3
10.9 2.8 3.9
11.3 2.7 4.2
11.6 2.5 4.6
11.6 2.4 4.8
0.7 -0.7 1.5
0.4 -0.5 0.9
0.2 -0.6 0.9
0.0 -0.5 0.5
127.6 98.1 107.9 14.8 0.3 0.8 1.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 3.6 3.0 1.6 1.8 6.6 71.5 10.0
160.9 114.7 142.8 14.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 4.7 2.0 1.7 2.0 9.4 104.2 9.4
219.4 152.4 194.7 18.8 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.3 5.8 1.6 3.7 2.3 13.9 146.9 8.7
290.6 200.1 258.7 24.0 0.8 0.8 1.7 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.6 7.6 1.7 5.0 2.9 18.6 199.8 9.4
351.6 238.7 312.8 27.9 0.9 0.9 2.0 1.2 1.9 2.1 1.8 9.0 1.6 6.1 3.4 22.2 244.9 10.5
2.3 1.6 2.8 -0.5 1.4 -3.6 -8.9 -4.2 3.3 -1.7 -1.6 2.5 -4.1 0.8 0.9 3.6 3.8 -0.7
3.2 2.9 3.1 2.9 7.2 0.8 6.3 6.3 0.9 5.3 6.6 2.3 -2.3 7.8 1.5 4.0 3.5 -0.7
2.9 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.6 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.6 0.7 3.1 2.3 3.0 3.1 0.7
1.9 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.3 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.7 -0.5 2.0 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.1
13.7 0.2 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 3.4 2.8 1.5 1.7 6.1 66.2 9.3
9.8 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 3.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 6.6 73.0 6.6
9.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 3.0 0.8 1.9 1.2 7.1 75.5 4.5
9.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 2.9 0.6 1.9 1.1 7.2 77.2 3.6
8.9 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 2.9 0.5 2.0 1.1 7.1 78.3 3.4
4.9
5.7
6.3
6.9
7.4
1.5
1.0
0.9
0.6
4.6
4.0
3.2
2.7
2.4
HUNGARY: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million)
10.4 2.6 4.0
10.2 2.4 4.3
10.0 2.3 4.4
9.9 2.2 4.6
9.7 2.1 4.6
-0.1 -1.0 0.9
-0.2 -0.5 0.3
-0.1 -0.4 0.3
-0.2 -0.4 0.2
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture
66.0 35.6 58.5 9.6 0.6 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.6 1.4 3.1 1.2 2.6 41.5 3.2
72.0 36.2 62.1 12.6 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 2.6 0.8 4.9 1.0 2.9 40.0 2.1
87.6 46.4 73.9 15.2 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 1.8 0.4 8.2 1.4 3.5 48.8 3.3
114.8 63.5 98.0 18.3 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 2.1 0.4 10.2 1.6 5.3 66.6 3.8
141.2 79.1 120.6 20.9 0.4 0.4 1.8 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.7 2.5 0.4 11.7 1.8 6.5 83.7 4.3
0.9 0.2 0.6 2.8 -5.1 29.7 4.3 8.6 2.7 8.4 9.5 5.1 -5.4 4.8 -2.3 1.3 -0.4 -4.3
2.0 2.5 1.8 1.9 -0.7 -1.5 0.5 2.6 -0.6 1.7 3.0 -3.5 -6.9 5.3 3.4 1.9 2.0 4.8
2.7 3.2 2.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.4 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.6 0.4 2.2 1.2 4.1 3.2 1.6
2.1 2.2 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 0.3 1.4 1.2 2.0 2.3 1.3
16.3 1.0 0.0 1.5 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 2.7 2.4 5.3 2.1 4.4 70.9 5.5
20.3 0.6 0.5 2.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 4.2 1.3 7.9 1.6 4.7 64.5 3.3
20.6 0.4 0.4 1.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.7 2.5 0.5 11.1 1.9 4.8 66.0 4.4
18.6 0.4 0.3 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 2.2 0.4 10.4 1.6 5.4 67.9 3.9
17.3 0.4 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.6 2.1 0.4 9.7 1.5 5.3 69.4 3.6
1.6
4.5
3.1
4.1
5.2
10.5
-3.5
2.7
2.5
2.8
7.2
4.2
4.2
4.3
Energy sector Source: GEM-E3
58
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 1
BASELINE SCENARIO IRELAND: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
3.5 3.4 1.0
3.8 3.0 1.3
4.6 2.8 1.6
5.4 2.7 2.0
5.9 2.5 2.3
0.7 -1.3 2.1
2.0 -0.6 2.7
1.6 -0.6 2.2
0.8 -0.5 1.4
61.2 34.2 57.2 7.6 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 2.0 0.7 2.2 0.5 4.4 42.4 2.4
123.7 59.2 107.8 22.8 0.1 0.1 8.2 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 3.5 0.4 7.1 1.2 9.9 71.7 2.6
158.8 78.2 140.5 32.2 0.0 0.2 13.6 3.2 0.5 3.7 3.5 4.8 0.2 7.5 1.5 7.5 96.9 2.7
221.7 99.5 195.7 43.5 0.0 0.3 17.1 4.4 0.6 4.7 4.4 7.1 0.2 11.3 2.1 10.4 137.2 3.2
285.9 119.4 252.4 54.2 0.0 0.3 20.0 5.6 0.7 5.7 5.4 9.5 0.2 15.2 2.6 12.3 180.8 3.4
7.3 5.6 6.5 11.6 5.2 -0.7 19.6 16.5 6.3 22.0 23.3 5.7 -5.9 12.6 8.6 8.4 5.4 0.9
2.5 2.8 2.7 3.5
3.4 2.4 3.4 3.1
2.6 1.8 2.6 2.2
9.8 5.2 5.1 -6.2 11.7 11.9 3.4 -5.0 0.5 2.7 -2.8 3.1 0.3
1.4 2.3 3.2 1.8 2.5 2.5 4.0 0.7 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 1.7
0.3
0.9
1.3
1.5
1.7
10.3
4.1
1.2
2010
2020
2.1 1.6 2.4 1.3 2.0 2.0 2.9 -1.7 3.0 2.2 1.8 2.8 0.6
13.3 0.1 0.2 2.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 3.5 1.2 3.8 0.9 7.8 74.2 4.2
21.1 0.1 0.1 7.6 1.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 3.2 0.3 6.6 1.1 9.2 66.4 2.4
22.9 0.0 0.2 9.7 2.3 0.4 2.6 2.5 3.4 0.2 5.3 1.1 5.3 68.9 1.9
22.2 0.0 0.1 8.7 2.2 0.3 2.4 2.3 3.6 0.1 5.8 1.1 5.3 70.1 1.6
21.5 0.0 0.1 7.9 2.2 0.3 2.3 2.2 3.7 0.1 6.0 1.0 4.9 71.6 1.3
1.3
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.7
ITALY: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
56.7 2.6 21.5
56.9 2.4 24.0
60.0 2.2 27.8
61.4 2.1 29.1
61.9 2.1 30.1
0.0 -1.1 1.1
0.5 -0.9 1.5
0.2 -0.2 0.4
0.1 -0.3 0.3
1168.7 688.6 1062.8 211.7 7.6 2.9 14.8 6.9 13.4 13.2 7.9 21.5 29.1 82.1 27.0 70.1 729.7 22.3
1367.8 812.5 1227.6 244.4 8.6 4.7 16.9 7.1 13.7 15.1 8.7 25.7 30.6 96.1 33.1 67.6 856.3 28.3
1403.5 846.3 1264.7 220.5 8.5 4.1 15.9 7.2 12.4 14.2 9.1 23.8 23.8 89.6 28.0 71.6 913.6 26.1
1678.7 1036.0 1518.2 259.7 9.5 5.1 19.4 9.5 13.2 17.7 11.9 28.4 22.2 110.1 34.1 79.9 1115.5 27.1
1974.0 1192.1 1792.4 320.4 10.7 6.4 24.3 12.9 14.6 23.0 16.0 36.7 21.5 137.9 45.1 85.9 1316.3 29.3
1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.0 1.8 0.5 1.6 2.0 -0.4 1.6 2.4
0.3 0.4 0.3 -1.0 -0.1 -1.3 -0.6 0.2 -1.0 -0.6 0.4 -0.7 -2.5 -0.7 -1.6 0.6 0.7 -0.8
1.8 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.1 2.2 2.0 2.8 0.7 2.2 2.7 1.8 -0.7 2.1 2.0 1.1 2.0 0.4
1.6 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.2 2.3 2.3 3.1 1.0 2.6 3.1 2.6 -0.3 2.3 2.8 0.7 1.7 0.8
19.9 0.7 0.3 1.4 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.7 2.0 2.7 7.7 2.5 6.6 68.7 2.1
19.9 0.7 0.4 1.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.7 2.1 2.5 7.8 2.7 5.5 69.8 2.3
17.4 0.7 0.3 1.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.9 1.9 7.1 2.2 5.7 72.2 2.1
17.1 0.6 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.9 1.5 7.3 2.2 5.3 73.5 1.8
17.9 0.6 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.9 2.0 1.2 7.7 2.5 4.8 73.4 1.6
29.0
31.0
33.0
35.9
40.5
0.7
0.6
0.9
1.2
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.4
2.3
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
LATVIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
Annual % Change Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
2.7 2.7 1.0
2.4 2.6 0.9
2.2 2.5 0.9
2.2 2.4 0.9
2.0 2.3 0.9
-1.1 -0.5 -0.6
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2
-0.4 -0.4 0.0
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2
12.5 7.5 10.1 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.9 4.9 0.6
8.8 5.3 7.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 5.7 0.4
12.9 7.5 11.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 8.6 0.4
17.4 10.8 15.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 12.3 0.3
21.0 13.3 18.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 15.2 0.4
-3.5 -3.4 -2.6 -7.6 -7.3 -8.3 47.0 -6.6 -13.6 -13.6 -7.4 -10.1 -11.3 5.3 -14.5 1.5 -4.5
3.9 3.5 3.7 3.1 7.0 10.0 8.3 11.1 4.0 4.2 4.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 5.6 3.0 4.2 -0.6
3.0 3.6 3.2 1.4 -3.6 -3.3 3.8 4.3 1.3 2.1 2.3 1.6 0.2 3.4 0.8 3.9 3.6 -0.7
1.9 2.1 1.9 1.0 -1.2 -0.9 2.4 2.9 0.2 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.9 2.1 0.8
22.1 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.6 3.7 2.9 6.0 3.3 5.8 1.6 19.1 48.7 5.9
13.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.9 3.6 1.5 2.3 3.5 5.2 73.7 4.8
12.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.0 2.6 1.1 1.7 4.1 4.9 77.4 3.2
10.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.9 2.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.2 80.7 2.1
9.5 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.8 2.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.7 82.6 1.9
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-5.3
0.2
-0.1
0.0
4.2
3.2
2.2
1.6
1.3
Source: GEM-E3
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
59
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 1
BASELINE SCENARIO LITHUANIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
3.7 2.9 1.3
3.5 2.8 1.3
3.3 2.6 1.3
3.2 2.5 1.3
3.1 2.4 1.3
-0.5 -0.4 -0.1
-0.5 -0.7 0.2
-0.4 -0.4 0.0
-0.4 -0.4 0.0
19.4 11.7 17.1 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 2.0 7.8 1.3
14.3 8.8 13.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 8.4 0.8
21.5 13.0 19.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 12.0 0.8
30.3 18.1 27.4 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.5 1.7 1.6 2.0 17.5 0.8
36.3 21.4 32.8 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 22.1 0.7
-3.0 -2.8 -2.7 -4.9 3.8
4.1 4.0 4.1 6.1 -1.7
3.5 3.3 3.5 3.3 -1.0
1.8 1.7 1.8 1.0 -2.2
-1.0 -7.0 -3.1 -5.9 -3.6 -5.6 -7.5 -4.8 -0.2 -8.5 0.8 -4.5
4.6 4.2 7.2 2.5 3.0 3.9 -0.6 10.7 11.5 5.0 3.6 0.1
2.3 3.6 3.0 3.2 3.4 2.9 0.9 5.0 3.4 4.4 3.9 -0.3
2.1
0.6
1.0
1.1
1.2
-12.4
5.6
1.5
1.7 2.9 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 -1.2 0.9 1.6 0.7 2.4 -1.0
22.9 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.2 0.7 1.9 1.1 6.5 6.6 3.5 2.3 11.6 45.6 7.5
18.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.0 4.8 4.0 2.8 3.0 6.3 64.9 6.2
22.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.9 4.7 2.5 5.2 6.0 6.8 61.7 4.2
21.8 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.9 4.4 1.9 6.0 5.9 7.4 63.8 2.9
20.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 4.2 1.4 5.5 5.8 6.6 67.4 2.2
0.7
12.5
4.4
5.1
4.2
3.7
LUXEMBOURG: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
0.4 2.7 0.1
0.4 2.5 0.2
0.5 2.4 0.2
0.6 2.3 0.2
0.6 2.2 0.3
1.3 -0.6 2.0
1.3 -0.5 1.8
1.1 -0.4 1.5
1.0 -0.4 1.3
13.6 6.9 14.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.9 11.3 0.1
25.4 9.9 22.6 2.4 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.3 18.6 0.2
32.6 11.4 29.1 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 1.8 24.3 0.1
47.3 16.8 42.3 3.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.6 2.6 35.6 0.2
59.4 21.1 53.1 4.3 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.8 3.2 45.0 0.2
6.5 3.7 4.8 3.7 4.9
2.5 1.4 2.6 0.8 -1.3
3.8 4.0 3.8 3.3 2.7
2.3 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.0
10.3
2.6
3.3
1.8
2.3 2.7 2.7 -1.8 4.0 3.3 7.1 3.2 5.1 1.5
2.6 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.3 -1.7 3.1 3.5 2.7 -2.9
2.6 4.3 4.3 3.8 1.6 3.3 4.1 3.7 3.9 3.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.5
4.2
3.3
2.9
2010
2020
1.0 2.8 2.8 2.3 -0.5 1.8 2.6 2.2 2.4 1.9
11.7 3.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.7 0.6 3.1 1.1 6.5 79.7 1.0
10.5 3.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 2.7 1.4 5.6 82.1 0.7
8.9 2.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.8 1.5 6.1 83.4 0.4
8.5 1.9 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 1.7 1.5 6.1 84.0 0.4
8.0 1.7 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.4 1.6 1.6 6.0 84.6 0.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.0
MALTA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million)
0.4 3.2 0.1
0.4 2.9 0.1
0.4 2.6 0.2
0.4 2.4 0.2
0.4 2.2 0.2
0.8 -0.8 1.6
0.8 -1.0 1.9
0.3 -0.9 1.3
0.1 -0.8 1.0
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture
2.9 1.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 1.8 0.1
4.5 2.9 4.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.2 2.8 0.1
5.2 3.3 4.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.2 3.3 0.1
6.8 4.4 5.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2 4.4 0.1
8.3 5.4 7.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.3 5.4 0.1
4.6 4.7 4.5 4.9
1.3 1.4 1.0 -1.6
2.7 2.9 2.7 2.7
2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0
4.9 2.6 4.6 2.5
-1.6 0.5 1.8 1.7
2.7 2.7 2.8 1.4
Energy sector
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
6.5
-4.2
2.4
2.0 2.0 2.1 0.5
21.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.9 4.9 68.8 2.9
22.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.6 4.1 69.1 2.3
17.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 3.9 75.0 2.5
17.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.4 3.9 75.5 2.2
17.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.3 3.9 75.9 1.9
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.1
1.0
1.0
Source: GEM-E3
60
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 1
BASELINE SCENARIO THE NETHERLANDS: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
14.9 2.5 6.0
15.9 2.4 6.8
16.5 2.2 7.6
16.9 2.1 8.0
17.2 2.1 8.3
0.6 -0.6 1.2
0.4 -0.7 1.1
0.2 -0.3 0.6
0.2 -0.1 0.3
347.5 173.0 317.2 53.5 0.3 1.0 6.9 0.8 2.3 7.3 5.0 9.8 1.5 17.3 7.0 24.7 215.1 7.5
480.8 239.3 425.8 61.7 0.3 0.9 8.2 1.7 2.2 8.0 5.7 11.5 1.4 21.0 8.4 26.4 310.2 9.3
539.5 257.4 475.5 62.6 0.3 0.9 11.2 1.7 1.9 7.1 5.1 12.2 1.1 19.1 8.8 23.3 356.9 9.4
637.9 313.1 565.6 69.6 0.4 1.0 11.9 1.9 2.0 7.8 5.6 13.4 1.0 22.6 9.5 27.8 434.3 9.4
726.3 357.6 644.0 75.3 0.4 1.1 12.9 2.2 2.2 8.7 6.3 14.4 0.9 24.8 10.0 31.7 501.7 9.8
3.3 3.3 3.0 1.4 0.4 -1.4 1.6 8.1 -0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 -0.9 2.0 1.7 0.7 3.7 2.2
1.2 0.7 1.1 0.1 1.1 -0.5 3.2 -0.4 -1.5 -1.2 -1.1 0.6 -2.3 -0.9 0.5 -1.3 1.4 0.1
1.7 2.0 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 -0.6 1.7 0.7 1.8 2.0 0.0
1.3 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.7 -1.0 0.9 0.5 1.3 1.5 0.4
16.9 0.1 0.3 2.2 0.2 0.7 2.3 1.6 3.1 0.5 5.4 2.2 7.8 67.8 2.4
14.5 0.1 0.2 1.9 0.4 0.5 1.9 1.3 2.7 0.3 4.9 2.0 6.2 72.8 2.2
13.2 0.1 0.2 2.4 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.1 2.6 0.2 4.0 1.9 4.9 75.1 2.0
12.3 0.1 0.2 2.1 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.0 2.4 0.2 4.0 1.7 4.9 76.8 1.7
11.7 0.1 0.2 2.0 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.0 2.2 0.1 3.9 1.6 4.9 77.9 1.5
16.4
18.2
23.2
24.5
25.4
1.0
2.5
0.5
0.4
5.2
4.3
4.9
4.3
4.0
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
POLAND: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
Annual % Change Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
38.0 3.1 12.2
38.7 2.8 13.8
38.1 2.6 14.8
38.0 2.5 15.2
37.0 2.4 15.3
0.2 -1.0 1.2
-0.1 -0.9 0.7
0.0 -0.3 0.3
-0.3 -0.3 0.0
144.7 76.3 130.9 20.7 1.5 0.2 1.9 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 3.8 1.7 7.9 1.7 10.4 83.8 7.7
210.0 134.3 186.4 31.1 1.2 0.3 2.6 1.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 7.2 2.2 9.1 4.1 14.7 121.6 8.5
298.1 181.2 258.6 51.2 1.5 0.4 3.7 1.7 2.9 3.7 2.2 9.5 1.8 16.8 10.8 15.8 167.2 11.3
406.1 249.4 359.4 69.3 1.5 0.4 5.0 2.6 3.9 4.8 2.9 13.1 2.0 24.4 14.2 22.6 239.9 13.6
515.8 322.6 456.5 79.4 1.5 0.4 6.5 3.7 4.5 5.5 3.4 15.4 1.8 27.9 15.9 27.8 318.9 16.0
3.8 5.8 3.6 4.1 -2.1 4.5 3.0 9.1 6.7 10.2 14.7 6.6 2.4 1.5 9.0 3.5 3.8 0.9
3.6 3.0 3.3 5.1 2.5 5.5 3.7 3.5 2.9 5.0 3.1 2.8 -2.2 6.3 10.3 0.7 3.2 2.9
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.1 0.0 -0.5 3.2 4.2 2.9 2.5 2.8 3.3 1.1 3.8 2.7 3.6 3.7 1.9
2.4 2.6 2.4 1.4 -0.3 -0.8 2.6 3.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.6 -0.8 1.3 1.1 2.1 2.9 1.6
15.8 1.1 0.1 1.5 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 2.9 1.3 6.0 1.3 7.9 64.0 5.9
16.7 0.6 0.1 1.4 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.9 3.9 1.2 4.9 2.2 7.9 65.2 4.5
19.8 0.6 0.2 1.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.9 3.7 0.7 6.5 4.2 6.1 64.6 4.4
19.3 0.4 0.1 1.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.8 3.6 0.5 6.8 4.0 6.3 66.8 3.8
17.4 0.3 0.1 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8 3.4 0.4 6.1 3.5 6.1 69.9 3.5
8.3
10.6
13.2
14.0
14.4
2.5
2.2
0.6
0.3
6.3
5.7
5.1
3.9
3.2
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
PORTUGAL: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
Annual % Change Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
10.0 3.0 3.3
10.2 2.8 3.7
10.7 2.6 4.1
11.1 2.5 4.5
11.3 2.3 4.9
0.2 -0.9 1.1
0.5 -0.6 1.1
0.4 -0.6 1.0
0.2 -0.5 0.7
102.0 60.4 91.2 18.0 0.5 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 0.9 4.1 4.9 2.2 2.4 7.7 60.4 3.3
142.8 90.1 121.9 19.5 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.9 2.9 4.0 4.4 2.9 10.1 85.5 3.7
147.9 94.1 128.5 17.6 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.8 3.0 3.0 4.4 2.9 7.4 96.6 3.4
179.6 116.0 158.7 19.9 0.4 0.1 1.2 0.4 1.5 1.7 1.0 3.4 2.8 5.3 3.5 9.3 122.2 3.6
221.5 140.0 199.1 24.1 0.4 0.2 1.6 0.7 1.7 2.2 1.4 4.2 2.8 6.7 4.4 11.2 155.8 4.1
3.4 4.1 2.9 0.8 -1.8 4.6 -1.0 -3.4 6.6 0.9 0.9 -3.5 -2.0 7.3 2.1 2.7 3.5 1.2
0.4 0.4 0.5 -1.0 -0.9 -2.5 -1.0 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8 0.3 -2.9 -0.2 -0.1 -3.1 1.2 -1.1
2.0 2.1 2.1 1.2 0.8 1.0 2.1 3.8 0.5 1.5 2.5 1.3 -0.6 1.9 1.7 2.4 2.4 0.8
2.1 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.1 1.3 2.7 4.1 1.3 2.3 3.1 2.1 -0.1 2.3 2.5 1.9 2.5 1.2
19.7 0.5 0.1 1.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 0.9 4.5 5.3 2.4 2.6 8.5 66.2 3.6
16.0 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.8 2.4 3.3 3.6 2.4 8.3 70.2 3.1
13.7 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 2.3 2.3 3.4 2.3 5.7 75.2 2.6
12.6 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.6 2.1 1.8 3.3 2.2 5.9 77.0 2.3
12.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 2.1 1.4 3.3 2.2 5.6 78.3 2.1
1.8
3.0
3.5
3.6
3.8
5.2
1.5
0.3
0.5
2.0
2.5
2.7
2.3
1.9
Source: GEM-E3
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
61
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 1
BASELINE SCENARIO ROMANIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million)
23.2 3.3 7.1
22.5 2.9 7.9
21.3 2.7 7.9
20.8 2.6 8.0
20.0 2.5 7.9
-0.3 -1.3 1.0
-0.5 -0.6 0.1
-0.2 -0.3 0.1
-0.4 -0.3 -0.1
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture
71.6 37.0 60.4 16.7 1.1 0.0 1.0 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 3.0 1.5 6.7 1.9 3.2 29.2 8.1
60.4 34.6 53.7 12.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 3.4 1.4 3.3 1.7 3.3 29.4 5.4
93.8 66.4 87.7 17.0 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.6 5.7 1.2 4.7 2.5 9.2 51.0 6.8
135.0 92.5 131.2 25.0 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.9 8.7 1.2 7.7 3.7 13.7 78.6 9.0
166.1 109.2 169.1 31.8 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.2 10.9 1.3 10.3 4.8 14.8 106.3 10.3
-1.7 -0.7 -1.2 -3.2 -8.7 19.0 -4.3 -4.4 -6.6 0.1 8.6 1.3 -0.2 -6.7 -1.2 0.3 0.1 -4.0
4.5 6.7 5.0 3.5 -2.5 1.4 1.2 4.2 3.1 6.6 9.0 5.4 -2.0 3.6 3.9 10.9 5.7 2.3
3.7 3.4 4.1 3.9 1.9 1.3 3.0 5.7 2.2 3.4 3.9 4.2 0.5 5.0 3.9 4.0 4.4 2.9
2.1 1.7 2.6 2.4 0.2 -0.4 2.9 5.0 1.4 2.6 3.0 2.2 0.3 3.0 2.8 0.8 3.1 1.4
27.7 1.8 0.0 1.6 0.5 2.0 0.7 0.2 4.9 2.4 11.1 3.2 5.3 48.3 13.5
22.5 0.8 0.2 1.2 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 6.3 2.7 6.2 3.2 6.1 54.7 10.0
19.3 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 6.5 1.3 5.4 2.8 10.5 58.1 7.7
19.0 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 6.6 0.9 5.9 2.8 10.4 59.9 6.8
18.8 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 6.4 0.8 6.1 2.9 8.8 62.9 6.1
3.2
3.6
3.8
5.0
5.9
1.3
0.6
2.7
1.6
5.2
6.7
4.3
3.8
3.5
Energy sector
SLOVAKIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
5.3 2.5 2.1
5.4 2.2 2.5
5.4 2.0 2.6
5.4 2.0 2.7
5.3 2.0 2.7
0.2 -1.3 1.6
0.0 -0.6 0.6
0.0 -0.2 0.2
-0.2 -0.2 0.0
26.2 17.2 27.7 4.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.4 1.7 13.9 1.7
30.3 17.5 27.2 4.6 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.4 0.5 2.0 16.9 0.9
48.2 24.4 41.0 9.8 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.4 4.8 1.7 2.8 24.5 1.5
73.3 36.1 64.9 15.8 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.4 1.2 0.4 8.4 2.8 4.5 40.1 2.1
91.9 45.1 81.4 17.9 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.5 1.3 0.4 9.5 3.2 5.1 54.0 2.1
1.5 0.1 -0.1 1.4 5.7 21.0 -3.2 0.1 1.3 1.6 3.5 -3.5 0.6 4.2 0.6 1.7 2.0 -6.1
4.8 3.4 4.2 7.9 -9.0 8.9 1.3 2.1 3.9 4.9 7.1 2.2 1.6 13.3 14.4 3.3 3.8 5.2
4.3 4.0 4.7 4.8 1.7 2.1 4.8 6.3 4.2 4.6 5.2 3.8 0.0 5.8 4.8 5.0 5.1 3.1
2.3 2.3 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.6 2.6 3.9 1.5 1.9 2.4 1.0 -0.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 3.0 0.4
14.5 1.2 0.1 1.6 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.3 3.4 1.2 3.3 1.5 6.1 50.2 6.2
16.8 2.0 0.6 1.2 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.4 2.4 1.3 5.1 1.7 7.3 62.0 3.4
23.9 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.6 2.0 1.0 11.8 4.2 6.7 59.7 3.7
24.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.6 1.8 0.6 13.0 4.3 6.9 61.8 3.2
22.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.6 1.6 0.5 11.7 3.9 6.3 66.4 2.6
6.4
2.9
2.4
2.5
2.3
-7.7
-1.6
0.2
-1.0
23.0
10.5
5.9
3.8
2.8
SLOVENIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
2.0 3.3 0.6
2.0 2.9 0.7
2.0 2.7 0.7
2.1 2.6 0.8
2.0 2.6 0.8
0.0 -1.4 1.4
0.2 -0.5 0.7
0.1 -0.4 0.5
-0.2 -0.3 0.2
20.0 10.5 17.3 4.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.5 0.6 1.4 9.8 0.7
24.0 13.6 20.8 4.8 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.6 0.7 1.5 13.1 0.7
32.7 17.2 28.3 6.9 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 2.9 1.1 1.9 18.0 0.7
44.0 23.0 38.3 9.1 0.3 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 3.8 1.4 2.8 24.6 0.8
50.7 27.3 44.2 9.6 0.3 0.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.3 4.0 1.5 3.5 29.1 0.9
1.9 2.7 1.8 0.6 1.0 -4.2 14.6 18.3 -1.0 -1.3 1.1 -2.3 -2.2 0.6 1.5 0.9 3.0 -0.4
3.1 2.3 3.1 3.7 5.4 3.7 4.7 6.1 2.1 3.5 5.6 -0.6 -2.8 5.7 4.0 2.5 3.2 0.0
3.0 3.0 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.2 3.5 2.7 3.2 3.7 3.1 0.9 2.9 2.4 4.1 3.2 2.1
1.4 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.1 -1.2 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.7 0.6
26.1 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.3 1.5 2.2 0.8 4.0 3.3 8.9 3.7 7.9 56.6 4.1
23.0 0.7 0.5 2.8 1.5 1.1 1.6 0.7 2.7 2.2 7.9 3.5 7.2 63.1 3.2
24.3 0.8 0.5 3.2 2.0 1.0 1.7 0.9 1.9 1.2 10.1 3.8 6.7 63.6 2.4
23.6 0.8 0.5 3.3 2.1 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.9 1.0 9.9 3.6 7.4 64.2 2.2
21.8 0.8 0.5 3.1 2.1 0.9 1.6 1.0 1.8 0.8 9.1 3.3 7.9 66.0 2.0
0.9
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.0
-2.5
1.8
1.2
0.1
5.4
3.5
3.1
2.6
2.2
Source: GEM-E3
62
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 1
BASELINE SCENARIO SPAIN: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
38.8 3.2 12.2
40.0 2.9 14.0
46.7 2.7 17.3
51.1 2.5 20.2
52.7 2.4 21.9
0.3 -1.0 1.3
1.5 -0.6 2.1
0.9 -0.6 1.6
0.3 -0.5 0.8
574.9 332.4 542.3 95.7 6.2 1.5 8.3 3.4 7.2 6.6 4.3 13.3 6.3 33.6 12.8 56.4 353.0 25.1
773.9 441.8 698.9 120.2 5.3 2.6 11.2 4.5 9.0 10.4 6.2 16.9 8.1 41.2 15.5 70.6 460.6 29.6
949.4 538.5 844.5 129.9 5.3 2.5 13.5 6.8 10.1 12.3 8.6 18.6 5.7 44.0 17.8 93.3 576.8 23.4
1285.2 701.4 1156.2 181.6 6.9 3.3 20.1 10.7 13.5 17.0 12.3 25.7 6.2 64.3 24.5 129.8 792.8 25.9
1635.8 841.0 1471.5 240.0 8.7 4.2 27.7 15.5 17.3 22.6 16.8 34.5 6.3 85.9 32.8 164.2 1004.7 31.5
3.0 2.9 2.6 2.3 -1.4 5.6 3.1 2.7 2.2 4.7 3.8 2.4 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.7 1.6
2.1 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.0 -0.5 1.9 4.3 1.2 1.7 3.3 1.0 -3.5 0.7 1.4 2.8 2.3 -2.3
3.1 2.7 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.8 4.0 4.6 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.3 0.9 3.9 3.2 3.4 3.2 1.0
2.4 1.8 2.4 2.8 2.3 2.4 3.3 3.8 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.0 0.1 2.9 3.0 2.4 2.4 2.0
17.7 1.1 0.3 1.5 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.8 2.5 1.2 6.2 2.4 10.4 65.1 4.6
17.2 0.8 0.4 1.6 0.6 1.3 1.5 0.9 2.4 1.2 5.9 2.2 10.1 65.9 4.2
15.4 0.6 0.3 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.0 2.2 0.7 5.2 2.1 11.0 68.3 2.8
15.7 0.6 0.3 1.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.1 2.2 0.5 5.6 2.1 11.2 68.6 2.2
16.3 0.6 0.3 1.9 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.1 2.3 0.4 5.8 2.2 11.2 68.3 2.1
12.1
17.8
21.2
26.1
31.1
3.9
1.7
2.1
1.8
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.1
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990
SWEDEN: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
Annual % Change Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
8.5 2.2 3.8
8.9 2.1 4.1
9.3 2.1 4.5
9.9 2.0 4.9
10.3 2.0 5.2
0.4 -0.4 0.8
0.5 -0.4 0.8
0.6 -0.2 0.8
0.4 -0.2 0.6
210.0 109.1 186.4 22.9 1.7 0.6 1.9 0.7 0.9 5.2 2.6 2.9 0.8 6.3 2.5 12.5 138.0 2.8
259.7 129.3 226.9 40.8 2.3 0.8 4.7 2.5 0.9 6.2 2.3 3.7 0.6 16.1 5.3 10.6 165.2 2.6
304.3 136.7 261.6 51.9 2.3 0.9 6.8 4.1 1.0 5.6 2.2 3.8 0.4 24.9 6.2 11.1 188.6 2.6
380.3 173.9 330.1 66.5 3.0 1.2 8.4 5.6 1.0 6.3 2.6 4.3 0.4 34.8 7.0 14.1 238.9 2.7
456.7 204.4 396.5 79.6 3.2 1.3 10.3 7.3 1.2 7.6 3.3 5.1 0.4 42.3 8.2 16.5 288.8 3.0
2.2 1.7 2.0 6.0 3.6 2.8 9.3 14.0 0.3 1.8 -1.2 2.4 -2.8 9.8 7.8 -1.6 1.8 -0.7
1.6 0.6 1.4 2.4 -0.3 1.8 3.6 5.2 0.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 -3.6 4.4 1.5 0.4 1.3 0.1
2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 3.0 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.3 -0.6 3.4 1.2 2.5 2.4 0.5
1.8 1.6 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.6 2.0 2.8 1.3 1.9 2.4 1.7 -0.6 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.0
12.3 0.9 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.5 2.8 1.4 1.6 0.4 3.4 1.3 6.7 74.1 1.5
18.0 1.0 0.3 2.1 1.1 0.4 2.7 1.0 1.6 0.3 7.1 2.4 4.7 72.8 1.1
19.9 0.9 0.4 2.6 1.6 0.4 2.2 0.8 1.5 0.2 9.5 2.4 4.2 72.1 1.0
20.2 0.9 0.4 2.6 1.7 0.3 1.9 0.8 1.3 0.1 10.6 2.1 4.3 72.4 0.8
20.1 0.8 0.3 2.6 1.8 0.3 1.9 0.8 1.3 0.1 10.7 2.1 4.2 72.9 0.8
10.2
7.7
7.3
7.9
8.4
-2.8
-0.5
0.7
0.7
5.5
3.4
2.8
2.4
2.1
UNITED KINGDOM: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990 Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions Population (Million) Average household size (persons) Number of households (Million) Gross Domestic product (in 000 M€05) Households expenditure (in 000 M€05) Gross Value Added (in 000 M€05) Industry iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals pharmaceuticals and cosmetics non metallic minerals paper, pulp, printing printing and publishing food, drink, tobacco textiles and leather engineering other industries Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
% Structure of total value added
57.2 2.6 22.3
58.8 2.4 24.5
62.0 2.3 27.0
65.7 2.2 29.9
69.2 2.1 32.5
0.3 -0.7 0.9
0.5 -0.4 1.0
0.6 -0.4 1.0
0.5 -0.3 0.8
1263.3 777.3 1127.0 214.7 6.5 5.0 16.5 6.9 9.0 30.2 20.7 31.2 12.1 73.5 30.6 88.7 754.9 15.1
1623.9 1028.4 1450.0 233.3 5.3 3.6 23.4 9.4 8.3 32.3 24.1 32.9 8.7 86.8 32.0 86.1 1021.5 15.7
1882.4 1154.0 1660.5 202.0 4.6 2.5 25.2 12.7 7.9 27.0 20.9 32.6 4.4 71.6 26.3 89.0 1290.7 13.9
2373.0 1505.6 2109.8 234.1 4.9 2.7 31.5 15.5 9.4 31.3 24.6 36.7 3.9 83.9 29.9 120.2 1676.3 14.9
2903.1 1813.9 2581.1 274.3 5.4 3.0 37.7 18.0 11.0 35.8 28.5 43.3 3.5 99.0 35.7 146.0 2078.2 16.3
2.5 2.8 2.6 0.8 -2.2 -3.3 3.6 3.1 -0.9 0.7 1.5 0.5 -3.2 1.7 0.4 -0.3 3.1 0.4
1.5 1.2 1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -3.8 0.8 3.0 -0.4 -1.8 -1.4 -0.1 -6.7 -1.9 -1.9 0.3 2.4 -1.2
2.3 2.7 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.8 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.2 -1.0 1.6 1.3 3.1 2.6 0.7
2.0 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 -1.2 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 0.9
19.0 0.6 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.8 2.7 1.8 2.8 1.1 6.5 2.7 7.9 67.0 1.3
16.1 0.4 0.2 1.6 0.6 0.6 2.2 1.7 2.3 0.6 6.0 2.2 5.9 70.5 1.1
12.2 0.3 0.1 1.5 0.8 0.5 1.6 1.3 2.0 0.3 4.3 1.6 5.4 77.7 0.8
11.1 0.2 0.1 1.5 0.7 0.4 1.5 1.2 1.7 0.2 4.0 1.4 5.7 79.5 0.7
10.6 0.2 0.1 1.5 0.7 0.4 1.4 1.1 1.7 0.1 3.8 1.4 5.7 80.5 0.6
53.6
93.4
64.9
64.3
66.3
5.7
-3.6
-0.1
0.3
4.8
6.4
3.9
3.0
2.6
Source: GEM-E3
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
63
APPENDIX 1
64
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 1
APPENDIX 2A: SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCES AND INDICATORS (BASELINE 2009 SCENARIO)
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
65
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
EU27: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
936047 366477 129551 162447 202589 74984 25101 46473 67 153 3190
950181 277810 171052 188965 223028 89326 28054 57201 350 274 3447
941860 213423 173006 207559 243761 104111 30374 67982 1913 421 3421
900326 196277 134290 188677 257360 123722 26395 85129 6061 807 5331
821985 167556 102864 164144 238990 148430 27808 97599 13862 3259 5903
773570 155202 74348 129067 241310 173644 28531 109508 23145 6238 6222
741237 142314 49906 111437 237685 199895 29145 120092 34332 9054 7271
740892 135565 40875 91972 247463 225016 30041 128067 44744 11542 10622
761416 130849 37276 75504 268042 249745 30533 132313 55375 13804 17719
0.1 -5.3 2.9 2.5 1.9 3.3 1.9 3.9 39.8 10.7 0.7
-1.4 -2.4 -5.1 -2.3 -0.2 3.6 -0.9 3.7 21.9 22.7 5.6
-1.0 -1.6 -7.0 -3.8 -0.1 3.0 0.5 2.1 9.5 10.8 2.1
0.3 -0.8 -2.9 -3.8 1.2 2.3 0.5 1.0 4.9 4.3 9.3
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
756079 81846 535645 508460 27185 135121 3323
738600 79338 512185 494000 18185 145288 1508
826299 98645 533039 513725 19314 192531 1686
986048 126639 599851 581995 17856 257366 971
992533 117225 578981 577908 1073 292834 99
1083628 133831 616263 617339 -1076 328261 -613
1133555 144964 629909 635745 -5836 351250 -1684
1130508 139939 619167 628717 -9550 361451 -1781
1100891 129086 596780 611939 -15159 363741 -1867
0.9 1.9 0.0 0.1 -3.4 3.6 -6.6
1.8 1.7 0.8 1.2 -25.1 4.3 -24.7
1.3 2.1 0.8 1.0
-0.3 -1.2 -0.5 -0.4
1.8
0.4
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
1660159 452940 631058 294905 202589 3323 75343
1662517 364248 650858 333268 223028 1508 89606
1723099 321007 658727 393417 243761 1686 104501
1825989 319922 676859 445998 257360 971 124880
1764466 284781 631793 456978 238990 99 151825
1805307 289033 638720 457327 241310 -613 179530
1822157 287278 627180 462688 237685 -1684 209011
1817670 275504 606313 453423 247463 -1781 236749
1807226 259935 578976 439245 268042 -1867 262896
0.4 -3.4 0.4 2.9 1.9 -6.6 3.3
0.2 -1.2 -0.4 1.5 -0.2 -24.7 3.8
0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1
-0.1 -1.0 -0.8 -0.5 1.2
3.2
2.3
27.3 38.0 17.8 12.2 4.5
21.9 39.1 20.0 13.4 5.4
18.6 38.2 22.8 14.1 6.1
17.5 37.1 24.4 14.1 6.8
16.1 35.8 25.9 13.5 8.6
16.0 35.4 25.3 13.4 9.9
15.8 34.4 25.4 13.0 11.5
15.2 33.4 24.9 13.6 13.0
14.4 32.0 24.3 14.8 14.5
2562823 358053
2712209 383048
2991720 408040
3274121 429777
3311797 397688
3553832 423813
3795425 459082
4012917 508456
4191941 559012
1.6 1.3
1.0 -0.3
1.4 1.4
1.0 2.0
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
383492 263837 54404 56754 5724 2774 0
362334 230040 51463 67806 10033 2992 0
382613 223012 39294 102408 14960 2939 0
424208 229245 29780 134637 25901 4645 0
412202 215200 14439 143087 34378 5098 0
424846 220489 15668 142250 41212 5227 0
438317 217961 15338 151161 47833 6024 0
436371 207758 14881 149621 54980 9131 0
421050 195041 11627 137481 60675 16226 0
0.0 -1.7 -3.2 6.1 10.1 0.6
0.7 -0.4 -9.5 3.4 8.7 5.7
0.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 3.4 1.7
-0.4 -1.1 -2.7 -0.9 2.4 10.4
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
839073 679426 2 32960 126685
814654 705954 202 23240 85258
827098 735244 610 19323 71921
842975 758152 3129 16212 65482
792479 715356 11802 17469 47853
806731 727057 17450 16126 46097
803472 719440 22015 16308 45710
785038 701980 24357 15050 43651
761688 680140 25886 14118 41543
-0.1 0.8 79.6 -5.2 -5.5
-0.4 -0.3 34.5 -1.0 -4.0
0.1 0.1 6.4 -0.7 -0.5
-0.5 -0.6 1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Energy Branch Consumption
82379
88696
88176
96033
92143
90907
90850
90911
90395
0.7
0.4
-0.1
Non-Energy Uses
97931
110541
112495
117477
111394
114997
117035
117712
118706
1.4
-0.1
0.5
0.1
1068710
1069989
1112989
1173676
1168588
1210934
1229094
1226560
1216372
0.4
0.5
0.5
-0.1
365650 234722 130928 264307 158484 280269
328513 214526 113987 280418 160442 300617
326949 213112 113837 286784 159866 339389
326308 210991 115317 308104 176859 362405
312835 193474 119361 309162 176247 370345
322764 196112 126652 317167 182813 388190
332858 199186 133672 316393 184951 394892
338776 198981 139796 312180 185570 390035
344251 199197 145053 308327 184652 379143
-1.1 -1.0 -1.4 0.8 0.1 1.9
-0.4 -1.0 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9
0.6 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.6
0.3 0.0 0.8 -0.3 0.0 -0.4
125031 444429 227902 184145 48610 38592 0
84977 456959 245996 193367 44616 44073 0
61454 478880 265552 216403 40061 50639 0
54486 495857 283524 237537 44441 57830 0
43786 475706 284203 241167 59596 64103 27
43604 482351 285314 260056 66270 73290 48
44549 474707 279405 276708 71982 81679 64
43790 459585 269861 291201 75208 86850 65
41747 440902 264868 302437 77637 88719 64
-6.9 0.7 1.5 1.6 -1.9 2.8
-3.3 -0.1 0.7 1.1 4.1 2.4
0.2 0.0 -0.2 1.4 1.9 2.5 9.2
-0.6 -0.7 -0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 -0.1
87370
104626
131767
159658
187413
212017
231888
4.2
3.6
2.2
5063.6
4823.4 2166.5 3728.4 1292.7 158.2 492.4 481.0 253.4 1050.6 279.6 815.4
4833.1 2176.8 3759.1 1311.8 148.5 488.0 476.7 246.8 1087.2 291.1 782.9
4764.0 2168.5 3692.0 1285.1 141.5 488.2 450.9 233.5 1092.8 306.0 766.1
4563.1 2038.9 3486.2 1159.9 132.7 475.9 425.6 221.8 1070.4 314.6 762.2
4225.4 1780.5 3151.8 911.3 123.4 468.0 406.1 212.2 1030.8 318.2 755.4
-0.9
-0.5
3810.6 1320.8 170.2 623.0 466.2 242.0 988.5 299.3 953.7
5129.6 2438.2 3946.6 1381.1 181.6 581.9 486.7 262.2 1053.1 304.5 878.5
-0.6 -1.2 1.1 -2.2 -0.7 -2.1 2.0 -1.0 -2.0
-0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -2.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 -0.7 -1.6
-0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -1.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 0.4 0.9 -0.6
-1.2 -2.0 -1.6 -3.4 -1.4 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 0.4 -0.1
91.5
92.7
87.2
87.4
86.1
82.5
76.4
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
5532.3 4030.6 1484.3 152.2 781.4 499.4 300.5 812.7 329.5 1172.1 100.0
3800.1 1321.2 171.0 678.1 481.6 275.3 872.9 306.8
Source: PRIMES
66
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
EU27: Baseline 2009
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
470.388 8142.7 203.9 2.43 44.6
477.010 8748.4 190.0 2.29 43.5
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
481.072 10107.2 170.5 2.21 46.8
489.211 11063.1 165.1 2.16 52.5
499.389 11385.6 155.0 2.11 54.7
507.727 12750.3 141.6 2.08 58.3
513.838 14164.0 128.6 2.03 60.5
517.811 15503.7 117.2 1.92 60.4
519.942 16824.7 107.4 1.74 59.1
994.8 9.8
1160.9 10.5
1214.0 10.7
1409.7 11.1
1687.2 11.9
1871.2 12.1
1934.4 11.5
0.2 2.2 -1.8 -0.9
0.4 1.2 -0.9 -0.5
0.3 2.2 -1.8 -0.4
0.1 1.7 -1.8 -1.5
2.0
3.3
1.4
130.3 114.4 126.5 39.6 47.1
115.2 113.2 117.0 39.5 46.8
100.0 100.0 100.0 40.3 46.3
95.1 97.5 99.4 39.5 46.5
90.4 97.2 95.3 38.0 46.1
84.5 88.6 87.5 35.4 45.8
79.0 80.0 79.4 33.6 44.3
73.9 72.9 72.4 31.1 42.6
69.8 66.8 66.1 28.4 40.3
-2.6 -1.3 -2.3 0.2 -0.2
-1.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1
-1.3 -1.9 -1.8 -1.2 -0.4
-1.2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -0.9
0.46 2.24 2.14 1.89 1.90 2.90
0.40 2.16 2.06 1.72 1.72 2.90
0.37 2.08 1.91 1.63 1.51 2.91
0.35 2.03 1.78 1.58 1.48 2.91
0.31 1.95 1.57 1.56 1.44 2.84
0.29 1.90 1.51 1.50 1.35 2.80
0.27 1.84 1.47 1.43 1.26 2.77
0.23 1.79 1.40 1.36 1.20 2.74
0.17 1.74 1.36 1.32 1.15 2.72
-2.1 -0.7 -1.1 -1.5 -2.2 0.0
-1.9 -0.7 -1.9 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3
-1.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.3 -0.2
-4.2 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.2
7.6 0.5
8.6 1.4
10.9 4.2
12.8 5.9
14.8 7.4
16.7 8.4
18.4 9.3
2991720 944823 944939 169709 507154 44772 353183 22246 116 4778
3274121 997519 980774 133406 693902 84256 306916 70473 1447 5427
3311797 926827 890887 67162 791522 127487 323347 161188 16933 6445
3553832 937076 935613 72349 804857 163885 331760 269127 31941 7225
3795425 928666 946907 69690 864690 191352 338900 399210 45802 10209
4012917 988723 935050 63637 862066 217775 349313 520277 59649 16427
4191941 1083694 931460 49457 783674 241293 355032 643895 75070 28365
1.0 -0.2 -0.6 -8.9 4.6 11.0 -0.9 21.9 64.6 3.0
1.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.9 4.1 0.5 9.5 10.5 4.7
1.0 1.6 -0.2 -3.4 -1.0 2.3 0.5 4.9 5.1 10.8
654125 133923 112878 99714 12793 371 0 407324 77070 0 194165 129444 71058 12051 0 605
715734 134409 147262 104505 40584 2172 1 434063 84892 0 186620 167173 62082 17502 0 686
816095 127038 206951 107334 84096 15272 249 482106 100061 0 183740 217761 55837 24041 0 727
901048 126752 265009 110498 126192 27744 575 509286 110539 0 182938 249765 45963 29882 0 738
944473 123566 326186 113356 172303 38885 1642 494720 114967 5394 165993 250328 41813 35767 0 820
1011270 122895 384504 114943 216847 49721 2993 503870 122882 13967 154522 266936 38933 42262 0 1216
1098178 134278 443051 116323 260783 61073 4873 520849 125821 35253 165236 269382 35750 48322 0 2158
2.2 -0.5 6.2 0.7 20.7 45.0 1.7 2.6
1.5 -0.3 4.7 0.5 7.4 9.8 20.8 0.3 1.4
-0.6 5.3 -2.4 7.1
-1.0 1.4 -2.9 4.1
1.5 0.8 3.1 0.3 4.2 4.6 11.5 0.5 0.9 20.6 0.0 0.7 -1.6 3.1
1.9
1.2
10.2
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
49.1
49.1
44.1
42.9
43.7
42.9
41.0
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
37.6 11.4 0.0 45.8 31.6 14.2
38.5 11.7 0.0 44.8 30.5 14.3
39.3 15.1 0.0 47.2 28.0 19.2
40.1 17.4 0.0 49.0 26.4 22.6
40.8 17.6 1.4 50.4 24.5 26.0
41.2 17.9 3.7 53.6 24.6 29.0
41.4 17.5 8.7 57.9 25.9 32.1
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
4880.7 544.0 3501.1 472.5 317.3 45.8
5307.7 504.0 3986.3 421.7 351.3 44.4
5892.2 517.6 4428.1 447.9 456.9 41.7
6240.3 526.0 4686.5 461.0 527.3 39.5
6511.3 545.0 4866.1 482.5 576.9 40.8
7136.1 574.9 5300.8 522.5 695.6 42.4
7598.9 602.2 5576.3 563.9 812.7 43.8
8018.2 624.6 5809.6 603.9 935.0 45.1
8424.4 643.0 6041.2 641.7 1052.1 46.3
1.9 -0.5 2.4 -0.5 3.7 -0.9
1.0 0.5 0.9 0.7 2.4 -0.2
1.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 3.5 0.7
1.0 0.7 0.8 1.3 2.6 0.6
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
1848.4 1060.4 526.3 261.6
1942.4 1288.7 386.1 267.6
2195.7 1518.7 403.7 273.3
2494.6 1800.3 414.1 280.2
2662.6 1940.3 440.5 281.9
2965.0 2178.6 487.9 298.6
3149.5 2308.6 525.2 315.7
3311.4 2426.1 554.6 330.7
3460.1 2538.2 579.0 342.9
1.7 3.7 -2.6 0.4
1.9 2.5 0.9 0.3
1.7 1.8 1.8 1.1
0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
280269 5197 154395 74969 9560 29038 7110
300617 4732 166321 79037 9452 34112 6963
339389 4914 182974 90951 9600 45395 5555
362405 5039 187736 105104 9436 49703 5386
370345 5179 186470 111593 9653 51984 5466
388190 5318 185222 123875 10185 57901 5688
394892 5306 182702 127520 10056 63353 5954
390035 5215 174691 129191 9698 65037 6203
379143 5086 164762 128901 8523 65485 6385
1.9 -0.6 1.7 2.0 0.0 4.6 -2.4
0.9 0.5 0.2 2.1 0.1 1.4 -0.2
0.6 0.2 -0.2 1.3 0.4 2.0 0.9
-0.4 -0.4 -1.0 0.1 -1.6 0.3 0.7
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
67
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Austria: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
8207 644 1295 1097 0 5172 2709 2445 0 15 4
8711 305 1108 1261 0 6037 3187 2809 0 36 5
9820 293 1116 1533 0 6879 3598 3189 6 64 23
9653 0 986 1403 0 7263 3085 3937 114 92 35
10295 0 957 1480 0 7858 3238 4225 218 164 13
10438 0 850 1270 0 8318 3425 4328 302 250 13
10312 0 620 740 0 8952 3572 4733 328 303 16
10297 0 280 670 0 9347 3676 4928 381 345 17
10711 0 230 600 0 9881 3873 5040 568 382 19
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
17306 3112 9741 8043 1699 4443 -40
18028 2550 10264 8309 1955 5404 -212
19106 3019 11001 7975 3026 5253 -118
24658 3959 13322 8225 5098 7203 229
23656 3506 12747 8215 4532 7145 279
24067 3250 12906 8355 4551 7807 38
24440 3190 12572 8394 4177 8560 -13
24463 3117 12371 8547 3824 8736 -20
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
25258 4042 10863 5184 0 -40 5208
27054 3344 11485 6374 0 -212 6063
29046 3592 12223 6519 0 -118 6829
34105 4039 14455 8178 0 229 7204
33950 3506 13704 8625 0 279 7837
34504 3250 13756 9077 0 38 8383
34752 3190 13192 9300 0 -13 9084
16.0 43.0 20.5 0.0 20.6
12.4 42.5 23.6 0.0 22.4
12.4 42.1 22.4 0.0 23.5
11.8 42.4 24.0 0.0 21.1
10.3 40.4 25.4 0.0 23.1
9.4 39.9 26.3 0.0 24.3
49287 5257
55170 5042
59854 5269
62963 7556
63544 7675
4007 1510 488 1776 233 0 0
4309 1055 489 2321 444 0 0
3901 1239 279 1961 421 0 0
5473 1510 270 2901 790 2 0
11637 9317 2 347 1971
11680 9445 5 439 1790
11550 9077 9 554 1910
Energy Branch Consumption
1774
1883
Non-Energy Uses
1554
1318
19124
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
1.8 -7.6 -1.5 3.4
0.5
0.0
0.4
-1.5 -0.4
-4.2 -6.7
-9.4 -2.1
15.7 20.3
1.3 -1.0 2.9 43.8 9.9 -5.8
1.3 1.0 1.1 4.2 6.3 2.2
1.0 0.8 0.6 5.7 2.3 1.9
23757 3209 11707 8344 3362 8539 -4
1.0 -0.3 1.2 -0.1 5.9 1.7
2.2 1.5 1.5 0.3 4.1 3.1
0.3 -0.9 -0.1 0.2 -0.8 1.8
-0.3 0.1 -0.7 -0.1 -2.1 0.0
34760 3117 12651 9406 0 -20 9607
34468 3209 11937 9139 0 -4 10187
1.4 -1.2 1.2 2.3
1.6 -0.2 1.1 2.8
0.2 -0.9 -0.4 0.8
-0.1 0.1 -1.0 -0.2
2.7
1.4
1.5
1.2
9.2 38.0 26.8 0.0 26.1
9.0 36.4 27.1 0.0 27.6
9.3 34.6 26.5 0.0 29.6
71325 8494
76615 9107
79890 9325
82910 10077
2.0 0.0
0.6 3.8
1.9 1.7
0.8 1.0
4976 1379 155 2556 879 7 0
5464 1160 157 2942 1198 7 0
6072 1173 108 3280 1504 7 0
6635 1140 111 3720 1658 7 0
6493 1104 203 3430 1749 8 0
-0.3 -2.0 -5.4 1.0 6.1
2.5 1.1 -5.7 2.7 7.6
2.0 -1.6 -3.6 2.5 5.5 0.0
0.7 -0.6 6.5 0.4 1.5 1.3
12088 9374 42 663 2009
11910 9173 245 769 1723
12001 9206 369 769 1656
11877 9015 511 769 1583
11509 8828 595 564 1522
11223 8574 684 380 1584
-0.1 -0.3 17.5 4.8 -0.3
0.3 0.1 39.6 3.3 -1.0
0.0 -0.2 7.6 0.0 -0.8
-0.6 -0.5 3.0 -6.8 0.0
1924
2375
2218
2161
2112
2037
1995
0.8
1.4
-0.5
-0.6
1576
1591
1527
1581
1612
1629
1648
0.1
-0.3
0.5
0.2
21062
23122
27107
27533
28394
28652
28577
28494
1.9
1.8
0.4
-0.1
6366 4194 2172 5801 2412 4545
6684 4189 2495 6244 2934 5200
7757 5033 2723 5995 3290 6081
8601 5447 3154 6657 3814 8034
8649 5126 3523 6907 3849 8128
8593 4992 3601 7236 4162 8403
8730 5028 3701 7199 4300 8423
8896 5072 3824 7094 4367 8220
9072 5130 3942 6968 4465 7989
2.0 1.8 2.3 0.3 3.2 3.0
1.1 0.2 2.6 1.4 1.6 2.9
0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.4
0.4 0.2 0.6 -0.3 0.4 -0.5
1785 7929 2968 3629 612 2201 0
1582 8779 3607 3952 848 2294 0
1399 9465 4265 4417 1025 2552 0
1497 11829 4788 4831 1324 2838 0
1216 11367 5498 4931 1459 3061 1
1229 11575 5459 5285 1837 3008 1
1179 11160 5373 5638 2083 3217 1
1139 10694 5058 5897 2206 3581 2
1082 10204 5087 6109 2238 3773 2
-2.4 1.8 3.7 2.0 5.3 1.5
-1.4 1.8 2.6 1.1 3.6 1.8
-0.3 -0.2 -0.2 1.3 3.6 0.5 8.9
-0.9 -0.9 -0.5 0.8 0.7 1.6 0.2
6012
6593
7023
8058
8674
9066
9558
84.6 61.3 11.5 4.5 15.6 8.5 3.9 17.3 8.1 15.2
97.2 37.0 74.1 15.0 5.0 17.4 9.1 4.4 23.2 9.1 14.0
92.8 32.8 70.8 13.2 4.4 16.7 9.4 4.2 22.8 8.5 13.5
93.0 32.7 70.8 13.3 3.9 16.4 9.7 4.3 23.2 8.8 13.3
92.0 33.6 69.3 14.0 3.5 16.1 8.9 4.0 22.8 9.3 13.4
90.6 34.4 67.6 14.8 3.3 15.5 8.3 3.8 21.9 9.7 13.4
85.9 31.4 62.8 11.6 3.1 15.6 8.0 3.7 20.9 9.9 13.2
104.8
120.5
115.0
115.2
114.0
112.3
106.5
2.9 2.9 2.7
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
80.7 55.7 12.8 4.0 13.1 9.9 3.3 12.7 8.0 17.0 100.0
58.9 12.3 4.4 13.9 9.7 4.0 14.6 7.7
1.6
2.1
1.0
0.5
0.9
1.0 -1.1 1.1 1.8 -1.4 1.6 3.1 0.2 -1.1
1.4 1.4 -0.1 0.7 1.0 0.8 2.8 0.4 -1.1
-0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.6 -2.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.9 -0.1
-0.7 -0.7 -1.0 -1.9 -1.2 -0.4 -1.1 -0.6 -0.9 0.6 -0.1
Source: PRIMES
68
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Austria: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
7.645 174.5 144.8 2.21 68.5
7.943 194.2 139.3 2.18 66.6
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
8.002 225.0 129.1 2.11 65.8
8.207 244.5 139.5 2.17 72.3
8.405 254.5 133.4 2.08 69.7
8.570 281.9 122.4 2.05 69.7
8.723 310.4 112.0 1.99 70.3
8.866 337.7 102.9 1.94 70.4
8.988 363.5 94.8 1.82 68.9
19.2 8.5
24.8 10.1
27.1 10.6
31.9 11.3
37.3 12.0
40.6 12.0
42.1 11.6
0.5 2.6 -1.1 -0.4
0.5 1.2 0.3 -0.1
0.4 2.0 -1.7 -0.4
0.3 1.6 -1.6 -0.9
3.5
3.3
1.2
102.4 118.1 96.4 37.1 44.2
102.2 114.6 103.2 36.2 46.3
100.0 100.0 100.0 37.9 45.4
100.8 102.5 106.0 45.8 59.0
96.5 103.3 102.7 44.3 57.1
86.2 97.8 99.6 40.7 56.4
79.8 88.8 93.1 38.0 53.7
74.5 81.1 86.7 34.7 51.0
70.5 74.5 82.3 32.2 48.0
-0.2 -1.7 0.4 0.2 0.3
-0.4 0.3 0.3 1.6 2.3
-1.9 -1.5 -1.0 -1.5 -0.6
-1.2 -1.7 -1.2 -1.7 -1.1
0.22 2.04 2.06 1.70 1.36 2.80
0.19 2.01 2.08 1.55 1.37 2.81
0.16 1.96 2.02 1.42 1.17 2.85
0.19 2.00 2.02 1.36 1.16 2.89
0.16 1.93 1.93 1.37 1.09 2.80
0.14 1.89 1.91 1.34 1.03 2.76
0.13 1.81 1.85 1.24 0.93 2.71
0.13 1.73 1.74 1.17 0.87 2.67
0.10 1.69 1.72 1.14 0.84 2.62
-3.5 -0.4 -0.2 -1.8 -1.5 0.2
0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2
-1.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.9 -1.6 -0.3
-2.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -0.3
25.4 3.7
23.7 2.9
24.8 6.0
27.5 8.0
29.3 10.0
30.7 11.6
32.4 13.6
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
59854 0 5924 1096 9407 1524 41832 67 3 0
62963 0 6964 1130 15163 2494 35868 1328 14 3
63544 0 5899 805 13534 3056 37651 2538 49 11
71325 0 4988 822 16438 5570 39820 3508 169 11
76615 0 5371 563 18423 6600 41538 3812 296 11
79890 0 5347 198 20059 6635 42746 4429 464 11
82910 0 4659 842 18139 6948 45033 6608 668 12
0.6
1.9
0.8
0.0 -3.0 3.7 7.2 -1.0 43.8 32.3
-0.9 -3.5 3.1 8.0 1.0 4.2 19.6 0.0
-1.4 4.1 -0.2 0.5 0.8 5.7 8.5 1.0
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
14171 0 7951 7892 54 5 0 6220 2284 0 1865 3102 951 301 0 1
15139 0 8568 7719 827 22 0 6571 2668 0 1708 3441 950 471 0 1
16864 0 9814 8360 1388 66 0 7051 2229 0 1618 4131 885 416 0 1
19311 0 11570 9724 1703 143 0 7741 2875 0 1604 4598 629 910 0 1
19459 0 12365 10257 1861 247 0 7095 3028 0 1596 3992 349 1156 0 1
19204 0 12932 10400 2146 386 0 6272 3655 0 730 4049 250 1243 0 1
20883 0 14312 10778 2977 557 0 6571 3650 306 668 4522 173 1206 0 1
1.8
1.4
0.7
2.1 0.6 38.4 29.4
2.3 2.1 3.0 14.2
1.5 0.5 4.8 8.5
1.3 -0.2
0.1 3.1
-0.8 1.9
-1.4 2.9 -0.7 3.3
-0.1 -0.3 -8.9 10.8
-8.3 1.3 -6.7 0.4
0.0
0.0
1.0
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
46.8
44.8
40.6
39.8
42.4
44.8
42.6
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
39.6 11.3 0.0 72.6 0.0 72.6
40.5 17.0 0.0 63.1 0.0 63.1
40.3 15.4 0.0 68.1 0.0 68.1
43.8 20.2 0.0 68.8 0.0 68.8
43.9 23.9 0.0 68.2 0.0 68.2
41.8 23.6 0.0 68.0 0.0 68.0
40.5 21.9 3.8 71.5 0.0 71.5
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
80.3 7.9 56.4 11.7 4.2 0.0
90.3 8.7 63.0 13.4 5.0 0.0
95.6 9.2 67.8 12.3 6.1 0.0
101.1 9.3 71.9 12.8 7.0 0.0
104.9 9.9 73.5 13.4 8.1 0.0
113.6 10.6 78.5 14.5 10.0 0.0
120.1 11.2 81.2 15.6 12.1 0.0
126.4 11.7 83.8 16.5 14.4 0.0
132.4 12.1 86.6 17.3 16.4 0.0
1.8 1.5 1.9 0.5 3.9 -2.3
0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 2.8 -0.5
1.4 1.3 1.0 1.5 4.1 0.9
1.0 0.8 0.6 1.0 3.1 0.6
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
35.4 21.6 12.2 1.7
41.7 26.5 13.2 2.0
54.2 35.1 16.6 2.4
57.8 37.0 19.0 1.8
61.0 37.7 21.5 1.8
67.2 41.5 23.7 2.0
71.8 44.0 25.7 2.2
75.0 45.6 27.2 2.3
77.7 47.2 28.1 2.4
4.4 5.0 3.2 3.9
1.2 0.7 2.6 -3.0
1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8
0.8 0.7 0.9 1.2
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
4545 74 2570 1301 283 310 7
5200 79 2699 1646 309 461 6
6081 82 2922 2152 333 586 6
8034 82 3839 3118 311 675 9
8128 85 3762 3160 342 769 9
8403 89 3607 3441 363 893 10
8423 90 3450 3506 369 998 11
8220 89 3182 3480 365 1092 11
7989 87 2968 3412 336 1174 12
3.0 1.0 1.3 5.2 1.6 6.6 -1.5
2.9 0.4 2.6 3.9 0.3 2.8 4.4
0.4 0.5 -0.9 1.0 0.8 2.6 1.5
-0.5 -0.4 -1.5 -0.3 -0.9 1.6 1.0
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
69
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Belgium: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
13112 1085 0 10 10707 1310 23 1285 1 1 1
12734 269 0 0 10340 2125 29 2093 1 1 1
15509 191 0 2 12422 2894 39 2848 1 1 4
15450 57 6 0 12277 3110 25 3061 20 3 1
15749 13 0 0 12382 3353 31 3090 213 17 2
16237 12 0 0 12531 3694 33 3248 380 30 2
16506 13 0 0 12405 4087 35 3413 599 36 3
9787 15 0 0 5391 4382 37 3480 816 44 4
4651 14 0 0 0 4637 38 3484 1062 47 5
1.7 -16.0
0.2 -23.5
0.5 0.0
-11.9 0.9
-14.3 1.5 8.2 5.6 8.3 7.9 2.1 14.0
0.0 1.5 -2.2 0.8 66.7 32.5 -7.6
0.0 2.0 1.1 1.0 10.9 7.8 6.7
1.3 0.9 0.2 5.9 2.6 3.4
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
39625 9493 22236 26896 -4660 8217 -320
46863 9343 26667 26573 94 10418 350
50812 7566 29491 34067 -4576 13278 372
53775 5511 32623 32206 417 14817 542
48989 4278 29695 31702 -2006 14110 672
51039 4654 30207 32218 -2010 15111 785
51660 4956 29465 31574 -2110 15811 997
54611 6572 28548 30788 -2241 17839 1178
57060 8321 27662 30013 -2351 19474 1173
2.5 -2.2 2.9 2.4
-0.4 -5.5 0.1 -0.7
0.5 1.5 -0.1 0.0
1.0 5.3 -0.6 -0.5
4.9
0.6 6.1
1.1 4.0
2.1 1.6
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
48607 10244 18497 8169 10707 -320 1310
54940 8551 22877 10611 10340 350 2210
61461 8200 24100 13369 12422 372 2998
61147 5450 24747 14740 12277 542 3391
57354 4292 22312 14110 12382 672 3586
59694 4666 22625 15111 12531 785 3977
60477 4969 21776 15811 12405 997 4519
56517 6586 20667 17839 5391 1178 4856
53573 8336 19524 19474 0 1173 5067
2.4 -2.2 2.7 5.0 1.5
0.5 1.5 -0.2 1.1 0.0 4.0 2.3
-1.2 5.3 -1.1 2.1
8.6
-0.7 -6.3 -0.8 0.5 0.0 6.1 1.8
21.1 38.1 16.8 22.0 2.7
15.6 41.6 19.3 18.8 4.0
13.3 39.2 21.8 20.2 4.9
8.9 40.5 24.1 20.1 5.5
7.5 38.9 24.6 21.6 6.3
7.8 37.9 25.3 21.0 6.7
8.2 36.0 26.1 20.5 7.5
11.7 36.6 31.6 9.5 8.6
15.6 36.4 36.3 0.0 9.5
70202 7382
73524 7800
82639 7825
85695 8266
84965 8134
90265 8607
95166 9221
98165 9685
101016 10414
1.6 0.6
0.3 0.4
1.1 1.3
0.6 1.2
6544 3875 318 1983 368 0 0
7182 3764 232 2721 465 0 0
7493 3025 186 3790 492 0 0
7733 1889 411 4612 821 0 0
6640 1624 167 3919 931 0 0
7142 1862 272 4069 938 0 0
7861 2160 581 3769 1352 0 0
12044 3919 591 5763 1771 0 0
14919 5708 565 6718 1928 0 0
1.4 -2.4 -5.2 6.7 2.9
-1.2 -6.0 -1.1 0.3 6.6
1.7 2.9 13.3 -0.4 3.8
6.6 10.2 -0.3 6.0 3.6
35940 29821 0 10 6109
33857 29532 0 5 4320
42146 38492 0 41 3612
40638 37438 0 27 3173
37805 35112 175 4 2515
38732 35665 381 4 2682
37937 34714 568 4 2651
36484 33386 637 0 2460
35296 32176 679 0 2441
1.6 2.6
-1.1 -0.9
-0.7 -0.8 1.8
15.3 -5.1
-21.4 -3.6
0.0 -0.1 12.5 0.0 0.5
Energy Branch Consumption
2307
2270
2367
2125
1880
1917
1880
1802
1779
0.3
-2.3
0.0
-0.5
Non-Energy Uses
2749
5513
6865
7495
6296
6767
7124
7107
7329
9.6
-0.9
1.2
0.3
32071
36073
39131
38443
37073
38867
39269
38396
37781
2.0
-0.5
0.6
-0.4
12591 9987 2604 8360 3390 7730
13612 10689 2923 9320 4631 8511
15762 12028 3734 9491 4167 9710
13563 10578 2986 9938 5017 9926
12077 8829 3248 10011 5146 9839
13209 9459 3750 10256 5438 9964
13692 9641 4051 10203 5518 9856
13338 9304 4034 10062 5521 9475
13421 9218 4204 9866 5495 8999
2.3 1.9 3.7 1.3 2.1 2.3
-2.6 -3.0 -1.4 0.5 2.1 0.1
1.3 0.9 2.2 0.2 0.7 0.0
-0.2 -0.4 0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.9
3787 14927 7249 4986 213 909 0
3306 16434 8517 5885 220 1710 0
3378 16130 10010 6667 490 2454 0
2080 16529 10009 6894 427 2503 0
1678 15749 9736 6999 510 2400 1
1722 15820 10331 7523 861 2608 1
1748 15115 10573 8107 1210 2514 2
1713 14289 10331 8516 1332 2213 2
1669 13405 10635 8703 1350 2018 2
-1.1 0.8 3.3 2.9 8.7 10.4
-6.8 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.4 -0.2
0.4 -0.4 0.8 1.5 9.0 0.5 8.7
-0.5 -1.2 0.1 0.7 1.1 -2.2 -0.3
9.4
7.2
2.5
0.5
-1.5
0.8 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.7 0.8 2.4 1.2 -1.4
-1.6 -2.8 -5.9 -4.7 0.0 2.7 0.0 -1.2 -1.3
0.3 0.8 0.3 1.6 -1.1 1.0 -0.4 0.3 -0.4 2.0 -0.9
1.1 3.1 1.3 7.2 -1.3 0.0 -1.2 -0.5 -1.1 0.6 0.1
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
1.6 1.2
-0.8
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
139.9
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
106.4 21.8 5.3 30.3 18.7 7.6 22.7 9.0 24.4
112.6 23.0 5.1 28.8 20.1 10.5 25.0 10.0
535
910
1319
2084
2647
3086
3402
146.5 115.0 22.6 5.3 30.1 20.1 8.2 28.8 10.2 21.3
135.8 61.4 107.7 20.6 4.1 22.7 20.4 10.5 29.5 9.8 18.3
125.8 50.7 97.9 17.0 2.9 18.6 20.1 10.7 28.7 9.1 18.8
128.6 52.7 101.4 18.6 2.8 20.1 20.2 11.2 28.5 10.3 17.0
129.0 55.0 100.9 19.9 2.6 20.6 19.2 11.0 27.5 11.0 17.1
137.3 65.7 109.0 31.5 2.4 20.0 18.1 10.8 26.2 11.2 17.1
144.0 74.6 115.0 39.9 2.3 20.7 17.1 10.5 24.6 11.7 17.3
104.7
97.1
89.9
91.9
92.2
98.2
102.9
Source: PRIMES
70
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Belgium: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
9.948 221.2 219.7 2.19 75.2
10.131 244.0 225.2 2.05 79.6
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
10.239 278.8 220.4 1.87 76.1
10.446 302.1 202.4 1.76 78.2
10.784 311.4 184.2 1.71 75.7
11.070 351.5 169.8 1.70 75.9
11.322 389.5 155.3 1.67 75.8
11.547 423.2 133.5 1.93 84.8
11.745 458.5 116.8 2.15 92.5
31.6 11.3
35.0 11.6
35.0 11.2
39.9 11.4
48.4 12.4
53.8 12.7
55.4 12.1
0.3 2.3 0.0 -1.6
0.5 1.1 -1.8 -0.9
0.5 2.3 -1.7 -0.2
0.4 1.6 -2.8 2.6
1.0
3.3
1.4
91.3 109.5 98.1 45.4 50.6
100.2 110.3 124.2 44.2 49.1
100.0 100.0 100.0 46.5 50.5
85.7 99.3 108.9 46.4 52.4
77.7 99.3 109.6 44.4 51.8
72.0 93.5 101.2 40.6 51.4
66.4 86.1 92.6 38.0 49.5
61.3 79.0 84.4 34.3 47.6
56.8 72.6 77.4 30.3 45.2
0.9 -0.9 0.2 0.3 0.0
-2.5 -0.1 0.9 -0.5 0.3
-1.6 -1.4 -1.7 -1.5 -0.5
-1.5 -1.7 -1.8 -2.2 -0.9
0.30 2.47 2.41 2.24 2.23 2.94
0.30 2.34 2.11 2.16 2.26 2.94
0.25 2.23 1.91 2.11 1.96 2.96
0.22 2.16 1.67 2.05 2.09 2.97
0.18 2.11 1.54 2.01 2.07 2.92
0.18 2.06 1.52 1.97 2.06 2.86
0.18 2.00 1.51 1.89 2.00 2.79
0.27 1.96 1.50 1.80 1.95 2.76
0.33 1.93 1.54 1.73 1.91 2.73
-1.6 -1.0 -2.3 -0.6 -1.3 0.1
-3.3 -0.6 -2.1 -0.5 0.6 -0.1
-0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4
6.5 -0.3 0.2 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2
1.3 0.0
2.3 0.0
3.5 2.2
5.3 4.7
6.6 7.1
7.9 8.4
8.8 9.5
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
82639 48148 13089 586 19024 1317 459 15 0 0
85695 47586 7774 1734 25013 3071 288 227 1 0
84965 48002 6127 894 22613 4363 366 2481 118 0
90265 48578 7595 1275 23470 4365 388 4422 172 0
95166 48092 8895 2888 21777 5946 408 6967 192 0
98165 20899 19723 2934 36244 8235 428 9492 210 0
101016 0 32353 2819 43896 8923 447 12354 225 0
0.3 0.0 -7.3 4.3 1.7 12.7 -2.2 66.7
1.1 0.0 3.8 12.4 -0.4 3.1 1.1 10.9 5.0
0.6
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
13941 5801 117 103 14 0 0 8024 1394 0 1964 4891 632 537 0 0
14716 5817 285 116 167 2 0 8615 1680 0 1709 5710 639 556 0 0
17347 5941 1308 116 1039 153 0 10098 2191 0 1476 7166 653 803 0 0
18476 5941 1989 125 1686 178 0 10546 2716 0 1076 7473 849 1147 0 0
20617 5941 2825 138 2487 200 0 11851 2695 0 1153 7338 1844 1515 0 0
21966 2516 3869 148 3503 218 0 15580 2933 0 2484 9899 1480 1717 0 0
23444 0 4986 150 4603 233 0 18458 2811 133 4670 10838 1473 1478 0 0
2.2 0.2 27.4 1.2 53.8
1.7 0.0 8.0 1.8 9.1 2.7
1.3
2.3 4.6
1.6 2.1
4.5 0.4
-2.8 3.9 0.3 4.1
-2.4 0.2 10.9 6.5
15.0 4.0 -2.2 -0.2
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
64.6
63.6
53.7
53.6
50.6
49.0
47.1
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
39.0 6.8 0.0 60.4 58.3 2.2
41.8 8.8 0.0 59.7 55.5 4.2
44.0 12.6 0.0 65.1 56.5 8.6
44.2 16.0 0.0 64.2 53.8 10.4
43.2 17.8 0.0 64.7 50.5 14.2
47.9 19.8 0.0 40.0 21.3 18.7
50.7 19.1 1.3 21.7 0.0 21.7
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
13.8 -0.2 7.3 4.1 0.9 5.9 1.6
5.8 0.8 6.3 1.6
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
116.4 11.4 90.5 7.3 6.6 0.7
127.3 13.1 99.1 7.6 7.0 0.5
137.1 13.3 106.5 8.6 8.4 0.3
145.6 17.5 110.1 10.1 7.6 0.3
152.3 18.9 113.6 11.1 8.3 0.3
165.3 20.1 122.8 12.5 9.7 0.3
172.6 20.8 126.4 13.5 11.5 0.3
178.7 21.3 129.9 14.2 13.1 0.3
185.5 21.6 134.2 14.8 14.7 0.3
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.4 -7.4
1.1 3.6 0.6 2.6 -0.1 -0.1
1.3 1.0 1.1 2.0 3.3 0.5
0.7 0.4 0.6 0.9 2.5 0.2
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
48.3 34.6 8.4 5.4
58.6 45.6 7.3 5.7
65.9 51.0 7.7 7.2
60.5 43.8 8.1 8.6
59.3 42.4 8.3 8.6
63.2 45.4 9.0 8.8
66.6 47.9 9.6 9.1
70.4 51.1 9.8 9.5
74.6 54.8 10.0 9.8
3.2 4.0 -0.9 3.0
-1.1 -1.8 0.8 1.8
1.2 1.2 1.4 0.6
1.1 1.4 0.5 0.7
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
7730 104 4157 2210 178 952 130
8511 118 4474 2523 202 945 248
9710 118 4677 3065 184 1530 136
9926 153 5260 2827 186 1281 218
9839 164 5209 2726 187 1334 220
9964 169 5067 2889 196 1420 223
9856 166 4820 2929 192 1519 230
9475 161 4402 2986 185 1504 236
8999 154 3954 3020 165 1464 242
2.3 1.3 1.2 3.3 0.3 4.9 0.5
0.1 3.3 1.1 -1.2 0.2 -1.4 4.9
0.0 0.1 -0.8 0.7 0.3 1.3 0.4
-0.9 -0.7 -2.0 0.3 -1.5 -0.4 0.5
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
71
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Bulgaria: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
9136 5121 60 11 3783 161 161 0 0 0 0
10191 5287 43 40 4453 369 151 219 0 0 0
9846 4310 43 12 4689 792 230 562 0 0 0
10612 4178 30 384 4812 1207 373 801 0 0 33
9707 4376 26 237 3792 1277 350 848 35 3 41
9829 4374 25 200 3792 1439 354 921 91 15 58
11792 4362 24 169 5624 1613 359 1018 132 33 71
12240 2849 23 143 7404 1820 365 1140 169 48 97
12632 3070 22 122 7404 2013 375 1249 205 64 121
0.8 -1.7 -3.4 1.3 2.2 17.2 3.6
-0.1 0.2 -4.8 34.4 -2.1 4.9 4.3 4.2
2.0 0.0 -0.8 -3.3 4.0 2.4 0.3 1.8 14.2 26.5 5.7
0.7 -3.5 -0.9 -3.2 2.8 2.2 0.4 2.1 4.5 6.9 5.4
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
17836 3527 8553 8264 289 5430 326
13484 2424 6519 8021 -1502 4563 -14
8718 2258 4118 5389 -1271 2742 -397
9516 2550 5186 6423 -1237 2458 -652
9526 2713 4689 6289 -1599 2524 -359
10451 3418 5029 6730 -1702 2601 -536
9946 2990 5081 6803 -1722 2840 -887
9932 2885 5065 6793 -1728 3144 -1087
9646 2767 4896 6606 -1709 3173 -1120
-6.9 -4.4 -7.0 -4.2
0.9 1.9 1.3 1.6
0.4 1.0 0.8 0.8
-0.3 -0.8 -0.4 -0.3
-6.6
-0.8
1.2
1.1
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
27981 8706 9609 5395 3783 326 161
23312 7673 6253 4584 4453 -14 363
18647 6417 4218 2932 4689 -397 788
19984 6892 4947 2804 4812 -652 1182
19121 7089 4603 2761 3792 -359 1236
20156 7792 4930 2801 3792 -536 1378
21609 7352 4976 3009 5624 -887 1535
22038 5734 4955 3288 7404 -1087 1743
22139 5837 4780 3295 7404 -1120 1943
-4.0 -3.0 -7.9 -5.9 2.2
0.3 1.0 0.9 -0.6 -2.1
1.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 4.0
0.2 -2.3 -0.4 0.9 2.8
17.2
4.6
2.2
2.4
31.1 34.3 19.3 13.5 0.6
32.9 26.8 19.7 19.1 1.6
34.4 22.6 15.7 25.1 4.2
34.5 24.8 14.0 24.1 5.9
37.1 24.1 14.4 19.8 6.5
38.7 24.5 13.9 18.8 6.8
34.0 23.0 13.9 26.0 7.1
26.0 22.5 14.9 33.6 7.9
26.4 21.6 14.9 33.4 8.8
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
42133 9435
41219 11161
40639 10721
43964 9679
39691 8123
43278 7823
49667 7828
56005 9754
58098 9935
-0.4 1.3
-0.2 -2.7
2.3 -0.4
1.6 2.4
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
10103 6800 951 2352 0 0 0
9160 6734 612 1813 0 0 0
6281 5245 170 863 3 0 0
6520 5670 172 676 2 0 0
6261 5592 44 582 42 0 0
7038 6276 31 628 103 0 0
6561 5851 28 578 97 8 0
5081 4340 42 538 130 30 0
5250 4516 52 461 167 53 0
-4.6 -2.6 -15.8 -9.5
0.0 0.6 -12.6 -3.9 29.1
0.5 0.5 -4.4 -0.1 8.6
-2.2 -2.6 6.4 -2.2 5.5 21.6
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
13098 8358 0 2781 1960
11654 8040 0 1544 2069
7655 5449 0 324 1882
8936 6683 0 370 1883
7764 6467 23 374 900
8083 6906 43 224 910
8056 6954 57 168 877
7962 6930 101 141 790
7659 6728 166 33 732
-5.2 -4.2
0.1 1.7
-19.3 -0.4
1.4 -7.1
0.4 0.7 9.5 -7.7 -0.3
-0.5 -0.3 11.3 -15.0 -1.8
Energy Branch Consumption
1357
1457
1145
1278
1317
1325
1339
1524
1518
-1.7
1.4
0.2
1.3
Non-Energy Uses
1427
1236
1264
1067
928
1007
1099
1168
1198
-1.2
-3.0
1.7
0.9
16102
11409
8602
9595
9802
10539
11136
11539
11721
-6.1
1.3
1.3
0.5
8969 5579 3390 2228 2382 2523
6034 4891 1143 2257 1139 1980
3652 2829 824 2165 962 1823
3720 2851 870 2145 1130 2599
3848 2825 1023 2132 1174 2648
4221 2943 1278 2141 1220 2957
4556 3034 1523 2160 1248 3172
4701 3018 1684 2192 1283 3364
4774 2966 1808 2145 1309 3494
-8.6 -6.6 -13.2 -0.3 -8.7 -3.2
0.5 0.0 2.2 -0.2 2.0 3.8
1.7 0.7 4.1 0.1 0.6 1.8
0.5 -0.2 1.7 -0.1 0.5 1.0
1477 4983 2066 3033 4543 0 0
1280 2900 1787 2467 2798 178 0
860 3004 1231 2075 877 555 0
951 3672 1025 2208 939 800 0
1128 3649 1120 2265 830 809 0
1155 3977 1245 2418 915 828 0
1156 4099 1433 2616 898 933 1
1080 4126 1681 2797 816 1039 1
1026 4033 1827 2930 776 1129 1
-5.3 -4.9 -5.0 -3.7 -15.2
2.8 2.0 -0.9 0.9 -0.5 3.8
0.2 1.2 2.5 1.4 0.8 1.4 12.0
-1.2 -0.2 2.5 1.1 -1.5 1.9 1.4
737
958
1117
1245
1457
1637
1826
65.4 42.1 24.9 1.3 8.3 1.2 1.2 5.2 4.6 18.7
67.0 41.2 45.1 26.1 1.6 7.5 1.2 1.1 7.6 5.1 16.8
66.5 40.9 45.2 25.4 1.6 8.1 1.2 1.1 7.6 5.6 15.8
69.0 43.5 48.9 27.9 1.6 8.5 1.3 1.2 8.5 6.1 13.9
67.9 42.3 47.8 25.9 1.6 8.9 1.2 1.1 9.0 6.6 13.5
54.9 29.2 34.8 12.6 1.6 9.0 1.1 1.0 9.5 6.8 13.3
53.0 27.1 32.6 10.6 1.5 8.7 1.1 1.0 9.7 6.9 13.4
58.7
60.1
59.7
61.9
60.9
49.2
47.5
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
111.5
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
72.5 44.9 1.6 11.2 3.0 4.8 7.1 7.6 31.4
58.0 38.1 1.4 9.4 2.2 1.4 5.6 7.0
4.2
2.7
2.3
-5.2
0.2
-5.3 -5.7 -2.1 -3.0 -8.9 -13.0 -3.0 -4.9 -5.0
0.7 0.2 2.5 -0.2 0.2 -0.4 3.8 2.0 -1.7
0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.0 -0.2 1.8 1.6 -1.5
-2.5 -4.4 -3.8 -8.5 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.3 0.7 0.5 -0.1
Source: PRIMES
72
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Bulgaria: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
8.767 20.1 1390.6 2.59 63.6
8.427 17.6 1322.4 2.49 57.2
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
8.191 16.9 1102.5 2.26 46.6
7.761 21.9 913.3 2.26 47.4
7.564 25.8 742.5 2.36 49.5
7.382 30.5 661.9 2.43 51.5
7.188 34.7 623.6 2.21 45.8
6.974 38.4 573.2 1.58 44.8
6.753 42.2 524.9 1.47 43.3
5.2 30.9
6.6 30.1
7.1 27.4
8.8 29.0
11.1 31.9
13.3 34.5
14.3 33.9
-0.7 -1.7 -2.3 -1.4
-0.8 4.3 -3.9 0.5
-0.5 3.0 -1.7 -0.7
-0.6 2.0 -1.7 -4.0
3.1
4.6
2.6
140.7 92.4 201.6 35.8 34.2
112.0 105.2 112.3 32.3 44.4
100.0 100.0 100.0 28.0 50.3
72.1 74.2 93.9 31.2 55.0
61.9 63.2 84.9 29.3 50.1
52.0 56.9 73.1 28.3 49.3
45.8 55.5 67.2 27.8 48.7
41.1 54.9 63.0 27.5 48.0
37.4 53.9 58.7 26.7 47.0
-3.4 0.8 -6.8 -2.4 3.9
-4.7 -4.5 -1.6 0.4 0.0
-3.0 -1.3 -2.3 -0.5 -0.3
-2.0 -0.3 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4
0.45 1.62 1.25 1.35 2.00 2.81
0.49 1.62 1.55 0.97 1.22 2.84
0.46 1.85 2.27 0.55 1.23 2.87
0.44 1.81 2.02 0.56 0.96 2.91
0.46 1.85 2.12 0.57 0.97 2.87
0.46 1.85 2.02 0.59 1.01 2.86
0.39 1.82 1.95 0.56 0.90 2.85
0.17 1.79 1.91 0.52 0.80 2.82
0.14 1.75 1.83 0.51 0.75 2.76
0.2 1.3 6.2 -8.7 -4.7 0.2
0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.4 -2.4 0.0
-1.7 -0.1 -0.8 -0.1 -0.8 -0.1
-9.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.8 -0.3
7.6 0.2
9.1 0.1
10.5 1.4
10.9 2.2
12.2 2.8
13.1 4.4
14.4 6.8
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
40639 18175 16820 590 2374 8 2673 0 0 0
43964 18650 18056 600 2312 5 4336 5 0 0
39691 14700 17264 153 2919 180 4065 406 3 0
43278 14700 19639 90 3228 426 4116 1056 24 0
49667 22350 18259 80 2795 412 4169 1535 58 9
56005 30000 16390 103 2622 538 4242 1970 105 35
58098 30000 17848 138 2486 660 4357 2381 164 62
-0.2 -2.1 0.3 -12.6 2.1 36.7 4.3
2.3 4.3 0.6 -6.3 -0.4 8.6 0.3 14.2 33.4
1.6 3.0 -0.2 5.6 -1.2 4.8 0.4 4.5 10.9 21.6
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
10934 3473 1908 1908 0 0 0 5554 972 0 4430 812 271 40 0 0
10174 2678 1975 1967 8 0 0 5521 1108 0 4376 834 271 40 0 0
9634 1885 2489 2097 389 3 0 5260 1198 0 4179 794 276 11 0 0
10314 1910 3076 2122 929 25 0 5327 1325 0 4362 671 279 15 0 0
10331 2870 3521 2136 1324 61 0 3940 1377 0 3086 560 253 41 0 1
12290 3817 3986 2191 1686 109 0 4487 1329 745 3750 447 213 72 0 4
12889 3817 4521 2340 2011 170 0 4551 1342 1015 3890 417 144 93 0 7
-1.3 -5.9 2.7 0.9
0.7 4.3 3.5 0.2 13.0 33.4
2.2 2.9 2.5 0.9 4.3 10.9
-0.5 2.1
-2.8 1.4
1.5 -0.3
-0.6 -0.2 0.2 -12.2
-3.0 -3.4 -0.9 14.2
2.3 -2.9 -5.5 8.6
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
38.0
44.1
43.2
44.5
51.5
47.3
46.7
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
27.1 8.5 0.0 51.3 44.7 6.6
27.7 6.8 0.0 52.3 42.4 9.9
28.2 14.8 0.0 48.8 37.0 11.7
28.6 17.6 0.0 47.0 34.0 13.0
28.3 15.1 0.0 57.4 45.0 12.4
33.3 13.2 15.4 65.9 53.6 12.3
34.7 13.5 19.4 64.8 51.6 13.1
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
21.6
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
51.9 25.9 14.8 8.1 2.8 0.3
41.6 15.7 18.6 5.0 2.1 0.2
43.0 13.9 23.6 3.9 1.7 0.0
47.5 11.4 29.7 2.8 3.6 0.0
54.5 11.4 35.6 3.0 4.5 0.0
61.7 11.9 40.3 3.1 6.4 0.0
66.4 12.1 42.7 3.4 8.2 0.0
70.6 12.3 44.4 3.7 10.3 0.0
74.6 12.3 46.4 3.9 12.0 0.0
-1.9 -6.0 4.8 -7.1 -5.3 -22.7
2.4 -1.9 4.2 -2.7 10.5 -1.7
2.0 0.6 1.8 1.4 6.2 0.6
1.2 0.1 0.8 1.5 3.8 0.3
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
19.3 3.6 14.1 1.6
14.3 5.2 8.6 0.5
12.3 6.4 5.5 0.3
20.3 14.4 5.2 0.8
21.0 14.8 5.3 0.8
24.6 17.7 6.0 0.9
27.2 19.5 6.7 1.0
29.6 21.1 7.4 1.1
32.0 22.8 8.0 1.2
-4.5 5.9 -8.9 -15.1
5.5 8.8 -0.4 9.8
2.6 2.8 2.4 2.1
1.6 1.6 1.8 1.7
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
2523 293 1266 452 217 276 18
1980 127 923 504 144 276 6
1823 108 982 551 78 101 3
2599 87 1186 1058 65 200 4
2648 85 1259 993 65 243 4
2957 87 1314 1147 70 335 4
3172 85 1350 1255 75 403 4
3364 82 1389 1346 78 464 5
3494 78 1398 1437 69 507 5
-3.2 -9.5 -2.5 2.0 -9.8 -9.6 -16.9
3.8 -2.4 2.5 6.1 -1.8 9.2 2.6
1.8 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.5 5.2 1.7
1.0 -0.9 0.3 1.4 -0.9 2.3 1.4
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
73
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Cyprus: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
6 0 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 0 0
42 0 0 0 0 42 0 11 0 31 0
45 0 0 0 0 45 0 10 0 35 0
49 0 0 0 0 49 0 7 0 41 0
86 0 0 0 0 86 0 18 0 68 0
174 0 0 0 0 174 0 37 26 111 0
257 0 0 0 0 257 0 54 60 143 0
325 0 0 0 0 325 0 73 82 170 0
387 0 0 0 0 387 0 84 95 208 1
23.2
6.6
11.6
4.2
23.2
6.6
11.6
4.2
5.8
6.0
12.0
6.7
7.7 15.2
4.4 4.8 3.9 23.2
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
1638 68 1570 631 939 0 0
2024 17 2007 797 1210 0 0
2547 36 2511 1153 1358 0 0
2816 43 2773 0 2773 0 0
3088 37 3050 0 3050 0 0
3068 42 2660 0 2660 365 0
3188 49 2713 0 2713 423 0
3273 48 2761 0 2761 458 0
3233 52 2664 0 2664 506 0
4.5 -6.3 4.8 6.2 3.8
1.9 0.4 2.0 -60.7 8.4
0.3 2.9 -1.2 -0.5 -1.2 144.8
0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 1.8
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
1519 60 1453 0 0 0 6
1976 13 1920 0 0 0 42
2390 35 2310 0 0 0 45
2466 36 2382 0 0 0 49
2856 37 2733 0 0 0 86
2910 42 2327 365 0 0 176
3105 49 2373 423 0 0 260
3247 48 2411 458 0 0 330
3259 52 2303 506 0 0 399
4.6 -5.3 4.7
1.8 0.6 1.7
0.8 2.9 -1.4 144.8
0.5 0.5 -0.3 1.8
23.2
6.6
11.7
4.4
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
4.0 95.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
0.7 97.2 0.0 0.0 2.1
1.5 96.6 0.0 0.0 1.9
1.4 96.6 0.0 0.0 2.0
1.3 95.7 0.0 0.0 3.0
1.4 80.0 12.5 0.0 6.0
1.6 76.4 13.6 0.0 8.4
1.5 74.2 14.1 0.0 10.2
1.6 70.7 15.5 0.0 12.2
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
1974 207
2473 236
3369 353
4377 417
4709 421
5398 410
6224 462
6902 505
7414 509
5.5 5.5
3.4 1.8
2.8 0.9
1.8 1.0
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
516 0 516 0 0 0 0
641 0 641 0 0 0 0
884 0 884 0 0 0 0
1077 0 1077 0 0 0 0
1093 0 1085 0 7 0 0
942 0 557 365 21 0 0
999 0 545 423 31 0 0
1052 0 548 458 46 0 0
997 0 437 505 55 0 0
5.5
2.1
-0.9
0.0
5.5
2.1
-6.7 16.0
-2.2 1.8 5.7
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
643 643 0 0 0
828 828 0 0 0
1171 1171 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
4 0 3 0 0
11 0 10 0 0
18 0 18 0 0
25 0 25 0 0
33 0 33 0 0
6.2 6.2
-44.0 -60.7
17.5 -0.5 17.8
6.4 0.0 6.5
Energy Branch Consumption
41
43
54
22
21
17
18
19
16
2.7
-9.1
-1.5
-1.0
Non-Energy Uses
31
62
84
71
61
60
61
63
67
10.6
-3.1
-0.1
1.0
1099
1414
1640
1809
2072
2311
2477
2589
2661
4.1
2.4
1.8
0.7
277 127 150 110 82 629
391 220 171 179 91 752
442 225 217 215 129 854
316 196 120 319 203 972
326 205 120 363 314 1070
350 223 127 404 399 1157
370 236 134 450 454 1203
389 249 140 469 505 1226
399 257 143 489 537 1236
4.8 5.9 3.7 6.9 4.6 3.1
-3.0 -0.9 -5.7 5.4 9.3 2.3
1.3 1.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 1.2
0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.7 0.3
76 867 0 151 0 6 0
13 1167 0 191 0 42 0
35 1302 0 258 0 45 0
36 1385 0 340 0 49 0
37 1586 0 369 2 78 0
42 1710 0 429 3 127 0
49 1767 0 496 4 160 0
48 1800 0 550 5 186 0
52 1799 0 594 4 212 0
-7.5 4.2
0.6 2.0
5.5
3.7
23.2
5.6
2.9 1.1 5.4 3.0 9.1 7.5 10.1
0.5 0.2 -0.8 1.8 0.4 2.9 0.3
Annual % Change
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
5.5 4.6 1.7 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.8 100.0
5.7 2.1 0.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.2 0.0
44
48
82
167
242
306
369
9.5 7.0 2.8 0.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.5
9.4 4.9 7.7 3.5 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.9 0.0 1.7
9.9 5.1 8.3 3.5 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 3.2 0.0 1.6
9.5 4.4 7.9 2.6 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 3.4 0.0 1.7
9.8 4.7 8.2 2.7 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.0 1.6
10.2 4.9 8.4 2.8 0.0 1.0 0.4 0.5 3.6 0.0 1.8
10.0 4.8 8.1 2.6 0.0 1.0 0.4 0.5 3.6 0.0 1.9
174.1
173.2
181.8
175.2
180.1
186.6
184.2
6.4
11.4
4.3
5.7
0.4
4.2 5.5 1.8 4.3 2.4
1.8 2.1
-0.1 -0.8 -0.2 -2.4
0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.6
-3.7 7.9
3.1
2.2
1.2 0.2 3.0 1.1
0.5 -1.4 1.5 0.2
11.7
-4.5
0.3
1.5
Source: PRIMES
74
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Cyprus: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
0.573 7.5 203.6 3.04 103.9
0.645 9.7 204.4 2.88 99.1
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
0.690 11.7 205.1 2.92 98.7
0.749 13.7 180.5 3.13 100.8
0.821 15.6 183.6 2.92 97.3
0.888 18.7 155.8 2.71 94.6
0.955 22.5 137.8 2.64 92.5
1.017 26.7 121.5 2.58 91.0
1.072 30.9 105.4 2.50 89.3
1.2 10.4
1.8 13.2
2.2 14.0
2.6 13.7
3.3 14.8
3.9 14.7
4.2 13.7
1.9 4.6 0.1 -0.4
1.7 2.9 -1.1 0.0
1.5 3.8 -2.8 -1.0
1.2 3.2 -2.7 -0.5
6.1
4.4
2.4
71.9 92.3 113.7 50.5 216.8
89.2 102.4 89.3 48.7 219.8
100.0 100.0 100.0 46.1 225.2
68.2 124.2 134.4 47.4 226.3
63.4 126.1 181.9 46.7 226.1
58.4 115.8 191.5 44.0 224.5
52.7 106.3 179.6 40.6 216.5
48.1 93.3 167.5 36.8 206.6
44.0 83.9 153.1 33.5 195.4
3.4 0.8 -1.3 -0.9 0.4
-4.4 2.3 6.2 0.1 0.0
-1.8 -1.7 -0.1 -1.4 -0.4
-1.8 -2.3 -1.6 -1.9 -1.0
0.84 2.62 3.00 1.60 0.00 2.97
0.83 2.51 2.86 1.11 0.00 2.97
0.84 2.46 2.87 1.05 0.00 2.98
0.79 2.36 2.71 1.42 0.42 2.96
0.74 2.34 2.67 1.33 1.10 2.95
0.49 2.27 2.65 1.21 1.08 2.94
0.44 2.20 2.63 1.10 1.02 2.92
0.41 2.14 2.60 0.95 1.04 2.91
0.35 2.09 2.57 0.87 1.01 2.89
0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -4.2
-1.3 -0.5 -0.7 2.4
0.0
-0.1
-5.1 -0.6 -0.1 -1.9 -0.7 -0.1
-2.3 -0.5 -0.3 -2.3 -0.2 -0.1
3.1 0.0
3.0 0.0
4.5 0.5
8.2 1.4
11.1 2.3
13.5 3.3
16.0 4.6
3369 0 0 3369 0 0 0 0 0 0
4377 0 0 4376 0 0 0 0 1 0
4709 0 0 4670 0 28 0 0 11 0
5398 0 0 2652 2323 88 0 300 34 0
6224 0 0 2606 2693 136 0 693 97 0
6902 0 0 2614 2928 218 0 949 192 0
7414 0 0 2089 3532 262 0 1104 428 0
3.4
2.8
1.8
3.3
-5.7 17.0
-2.2 2.7 6.8
23.9
4.8 16.0
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
940 0 0 0 0 0 0 940 0 0 0 0 940 0 0 0
1105 0 1 0 0 1 0 1103 0 0 0 0 1103 0 0 0
1473 0 7 0 0 7 0 1466 2 0 0 0 1462 4 0 0
1816 0 179 0 158 21 0 1637 5 0 0 566 1059 12 0 0
1978 0 390 0 330 60 0 1588 6 0 0 566 1004 19 0 0
2079 0 564 0 445 119 0 1515 7 0 0 600 889 25 0 0
2624 0 766 0 510 256 0 1858 9 0 0 1054 775 29 0 0
4.6
3.0
2.9
48.6
7.0
23.2
4.4 15.7
4.5
0.8 12.4
1.6 4.2
4.5
-3.7 17.2
6.4 -2.5 4.7
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
38.9
42.6
34.6
32.7
34.7
36.7
31.4
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
32.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
35.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
37.0 0.3 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.8
46.2 0.5 0.0 7.8 0.0 7.8
46.8 0.6 0.0 14.9 0.0 14.9
47.1 0.6 0.0 19.7 0.0 19.7
50.7 0.6 0.0 24.2 0.0 24.2
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
8.6 0.9 3.1 0.0 4.7 0.0
10.0 1.0 3.6 0.0 5.4 0.0
12.1 1.1 4.1 0.0 6.9 0.0
13.9 1.3 4.9 0.0 7.7 0.0
16.4 1.3 6.1 0.0 8.9 0.0
18.7 1.4 6.6 0.0 10.7 0.0
21.1 1.5 6.9 0.0 12.7 0.0
23.6 1.6 7.2 0.0 14.8 0.0
26.1 1.7 7.5 0.0 16.8 0.0
3.5 2.8 2.8
3.1 1.8 4.2
2.5 1.4 1.2
2.2 1.1 0.9
4.0
2.5
3.6
2.9
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0
1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0
1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0
1.4 1.4 0.0 0.0
1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0
1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0
1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0
1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0
1.9 1.9 0.0 0.0
3.9 3.9
0.3 0.3
1.8 1.8
1.5 1.5
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
629 18 175 194 0 242 0
752 21 200 264 0 267 0
854 24 246 295 0 290 0
972 26 331 315 0 299 0
1070 28 393 305 0 344 0
1157 29 398 335 0 395 0
1203 30 391 347 0 434 0
1226 30 370 358 0 468 0
1236 30 342 362 0 501 0
3.1 2.6 3.5 4.3
2.3 1.6 4.8 0.3
1.2 0.7 0.0 1.3
0.3 0.0 -1.3 0.4
1.8
1.7
2.4
1.4
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
75
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Czech Republic: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
40090 36321 223 201 3246 100 100 0 0 0 0
32221 27946 296 198 3155 626 172 454 0 0 0
29911 25049 461 169 3506 727 151 576 0 0 0
32845 23570 600 154 6379 2142 205 1933 2 2 0
30291 20250 200 162 6834 2844 195 2583 30 36 0
30750 19512 200 166 7675 3197 198 2850 61 88 0
31895 19034 200 163 8841 3656 203 3232 93 128 0
33277 17796 200 157 11040 4085 206 3614 108 157 0
34050 17504 198 153 11988 4208 209 3683 122 193 0
-2.9 -3.6 7.5 -1.7 0.8 22.0 4.2
0.1 -2.1 -8.0 -0.4 6.9 14.6 2.6 16.2
0.5 -0.6 0.0 0.1 2.6 2.5 0.4 2.3 12.0 13.5 2.1
0.7 -0.8 -0.1 -0.6 3.1 1.4 0.3 1.3 2.8 4.2 0.1
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
7684 -5690 8648 7440 1209 4786 -60
8716 -5762 8019 7071 948 6424 36
9448 -4765 7593 5655 1937 7482 -861
12896 -3179 9813 7857 1956 7535 -1086
14056 -3077 10202 8251 1951 7940 -818
14802 -3403 11180 9000 2180 8136 -945
14934 -3497 11415 9179 2236 8008 -839
14435 -3577 11504 9247 2258 7666 -1019
13731 -3733 11213 9127 2086 7510 -1152
2.1
4.1
0.6
-0.8
-1.3 -2.7 4.8 4.6
3.0 3.8 0.1 0.6
1.1 1.1 1.4 0.1
-0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.6
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
48992 31433 9025 5248 3246 -60 100
41605 23062 8174 6552 3155 36 626
40506 21598 8036 7500 3506 -861 727
45319 20300 10068 7703 6379 -1086 1955
44347 17174 10402 8102 6834 -818 2653
45552 16109 11380 8303 7675 -945 3031
46829 15538 11615 8172 8841 -839 3502
47712 14219 11704 7823 11040 -1019 3946
47781 13771 11410 7664 11988 -1152 4100
-1.9 -3.7 -1.2 3.6 0.8
0.9 -2.3 2.6 0.8 6.9
0.5 -1.0 1.1 0.1 2.6
0.2 -1.2 -0.2 -0.6 3.1
22.0
13.8
2.8
1.6
64.2 18.4 10.7 6.6 0.2
55.4 19.6 15.7 7.6 1.5
53.3 19.8 18.5 8.7 1.8
44.8 22.2 17.0 14.1 4.3
38.7 23.5 18.3 15.4 6.0
35.4 25.0 18.2 16.8 6.7
33.2 24.8 17.5 18.9 7.5
29.8 24.5 16.4 23.1 8.3
28.8 23.9 16.0 25.1 8.6
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
62260 8840
60564 9047
72898 10756
81916 11776
80425 11085
89581 12310
94634 13085
103594 15363
109713 16769
1.6 2.0
1.0 0.3
1.6 1.7
1.5 2.5
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
15255 14213 741 300 0 0 0
11006 10002 311 573 119 0 0
15753 13911 203 1270 369 0 0
15729 14061 152 1292 224 0 0
15049 13393 41 1205 410 0 0
14238 12258 51 1350 578 0 0
14066 12040 39 1240 748 0 0
13080 10877 35 1233 935 0 0
12928 10584 30 1221 1093 0 0
0.3 -0.2 -12.2 15.5
-0.5 -0.4 -14.7 -0.5 1.0
-0.7 -1.1 -0.5 0.3 6.2
-0.8 -1.3 -2.7 -0.2 3.9
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
18077 8005 0 1830 8242
14555 7299 11 1361 5885
11640 6218 0 966 4456
13441 8278 3 922 4239
12155 8519 238 798 2599
12670 9291 349 688 2341
12760 9480 464 675 2140
12795 9551 518 708 2018
12576 9432 554 635 1955
-4.3 -2.5
0.4 3.2
-6.2 -6.0
-1.9 -5.2
0.5 1.1 6.9 -1.7 -1.9
-0.1 -0.1 1.8 -0.6 -0.9
Energy Branch Consumption
2116
1673
1919
1944
2040
2139
2151
2279
2353
-1.0
0.6
0.5
0.9
Non-Energy Uses
1713
2379
2090
2939
2856
3203
3341
3509
3564
2.0
3.2
1.6
0.6
32224
25067
23562
25846
26638
28471
29199
29482
29247
-3.1
1.2
0.9
0.0
16258 6961 9297 7848 5306 2812
12339 5795 6544 5433 4438 2857
9723 5990 3733 5301 4161 4377
9593 6654 2939 6019 4070 6164
9311 6058 3252 6265 4181 6881
10042 6376 3666 6452 4332 7645
10137 6295 3841 6637 4501 7924
10153 6240 3913 6637 4717 7976
10108 6150 3959 6546 4827 7766
-5.0 -1.5 -8.7 -3.8 -2.4 4.5
-0.4 0.1 -1.4 1.7 0.0 4.6
0.9 0.4 1.7 0.6 0.7 1.4
0.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.7 -0.2
13719 6257 5146 4142 2959 0 0
5797 5048 6119 4129 3664 308 0
4778 5397 6419 4243 2624 102 0
3636 6940 6581 4750 2478 1461 0
2505 7313 6805 4957 3124 1934 1
2706 7939 6856 5512 3367 2091 1
2484 8024 6784 5987 3579 2339 1
2356 7976 6366 6379 3803 2600 2
2212 7677 6205 6652 3897 2602 2
-10.0 -1.5 2.2 0.2 -1.2
-6.3 3.1 0.6 1.6 1.8 34.2
-0.1 0.9 0.0 1.9 1.4 1.9 10.8
-1.2 -0.4 -0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.5
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
207.5
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
158.4 67.0 2.3 46.9 21.6 13.2 7.5 18.3 30.8
104.2 48.0 1.6 27.6 9.9 9.3 7.8 13.5
454
1663
2370
2731
3210
3657
3810
150.8 117.9 64.0 2.2 24.5 8.1 6.7 12.4 12.4 20.5
149.5 86.5 118.5 64.2 2.4 21.6 6.9 5.6 17.8 11.3 19.7
140.1 77.7 110.9 60.4 1.9 16.9 6.9 5.5 19.3 10.2 19.0
137.7 73.1 109.0 55.7 1.9 17.9 7.0 5.3 21.2 11.0 17.7
135.1 71.9 106.7 54.5 1.8 16.8 6.9 5.1 21.7 11.5 16.9
125.0 63.4 96.5 46.0 1.7 15.8 6.4 4.9 21.7 11.9 16.6
117.9 58.1 89.4 40.8 1.7 15.0 6.3 4.8 20.9 12.0 16.5
72.7
72.0
67.5
66.4
65.1
60.2
56.8
18.0
3.1
1.7
-3.1
-0.7
-2.9 -0.4 -0.4 -6.3 -9.3 -6.5 5.1 -3.8 -4.0
-0.6 -0.6 -1.3 -3.6 -1.6 -1.9 4.5 -1.9 -0.8
-0.4 -0.8 -0.4 -1.0 -0.8 -0.1 0.0 -0.8 1.2 1.2 -1.2
-1.4 -2.1 -1.8 -2.9 -0.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 0.5 -0.2
Source: PRIMES
76
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Czech Republic: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
10.362 81.3 602.6 3.23 15.7
10.333 77.5 537.1 2.50 21.0
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
10.278 83.4 485.7 2.91 23.3
10.221 100.2 452.3 2.62 28.5
10.394 114.3 388.0 2.50 31.7
10.497 134.8 337.9 2.39 32.5
10.543 154.2 303.8 2.28 31.9
10.516 169.4 281.7 2.02 30.3
10.420 182.5 261.8 1.87 28.7
15.3 18.4
18.1 18.1
19.9 17.4
24.7 18.3
30.7 19.9
34.7 20.5
36.1 19.8
-0.1 0.3 -2.1 -1.0
0.1 3.2 -2.2 -1.5
0.1 3.0 -2.4 -0.9
-0.1 1.7 -1.5 -2.0
2.6
4.4
1.6
196.2 163.9 194.0 19.6 18.9
170.1 117.2 113.2 19.5 18.1
100.0 100.0 100.0 25.5 31.8
73.8 97.2 80.7 31.2 45.8
61.5 90.2 73.4 30.7 46.1
56.2 79.3 63.3 28.6 45.9
50.7 71.4 56.6 26.9 44.1
46.9 65.2 53.4 25.4 42.1
43.9 60.0 50.3 23.4 39.7
-6.5 -4.8 -6.4 2.6 5.4
-4.7 -1.0 -3.0 1.9 3.8
-1.9 -2.3 -2.6 -1.3 -0.4
-1.4 -1.7 -1.2 -1.4 -1.0
0.64 2.77 2.88 2.75 2.48 2.68
0.44 2.18 2.24 1.83 2.09 2.71
0.57 2.19 2.52 1.53 1.61 2.83
0.53 2.01 2.25 1.15 1.37 2.89
0.46 1.82 1.82 1.10 1.32 2.80
0.38 1.80 1.78 1.08 1.22 2.77
0.35 1.73 1.66 1.04 1.13 2.74
0.28 1.66 1.56 0.96 1.05 2.72
0.24 1.60 1.48 0.96 0.99 2.69
-1.0 -2.3 -1.3 -5.7 -4.2 0.6
-2.2 -1.8 -3.2 -3.3 -2.0 -0.1
-2.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.6 -1.5 -0.2
-3.9 -0.7 -1.1 -0.8 -1.3 -0.2
1.8 0.2
6.1 0.2
8.4 3.9
9.0 5.1
10.3 6.6
11.6 7.4
12.1 8.2
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
72898 13588 52069 421 3893 1170 1758 0 0 0
81916 24724 48848 416 4714 814 2380 21 0 0
80425 26495 43057 203 6384 1606 2263 348 70 0
89581 29753 46004 264 7679 2690 2306 713 172 0
94634 34627 46070 205 6957 3109 2361 1077 228 0
103594 44076 44677 184 6900 3848 2390 1256 261 0
109713 48207 46059 157 6529 4638 2433 1418 273 0
1.0 6.9 -1.9 -7.0 5.1 3.2 2.6
1.6 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.9 6.8 0.4 12.0 12.6
1.5 3.4 0.0 -2.6 -0.6 4.1 0.3 2.8 1.8
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
13222 1706 948 947 1 0 0 10568 3510 0 9090 1207 129 143 0 0
15228 3621 1045 1016 29 0 0 10563 3621 0 8987 1300 133 143 0 0
14760 3636 1508 1045 364 99 0 9616 4092 0 7985 1333 136 162 0 0
17262 3651 1966 1053 734 179 0 11645 5306 0 9858 1324 271 191 0 0
18014 4259 2421 1065 1119 236 0 11334 5661 0 9502 1326 200 307 0 0
19298 5406 2664 1083 1310 271 0 11227 6008 439 9298 1324 173 431 0 0
20304 5908 2854 1088 1483 283 0 11542 6273 933 9522 1342 154 524 0 0
1.1 7.9 4.7 1.0 80.3
2.0 1.6 4.8 0.2 11.9 9.1
1.2 3.3 1.7 0.2 2.9 1.8
-0.9 1.5
1.7 3.3
0.2 1.0
-1.3 1.0 0.6 1.3
1.8 -0.1 3.9 6.6
0.0 0.1 -2.6 5.5
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
58.1
56.5
57.8
55.1
55.9
56.4
56.4
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
31.4 19.4 0.0 22.7 18.6 4.0
30.0 18.1 0.0 34.1 30.2 3.9
29.3 26.5 0.0 38.3 32.9 5.3
34.2 39.6 0.0 39.8 33.2 6.6
34.4 39.4 0.0 43.7 36.6 7.2
36.6 39.0 4.6 50.0 42.5 7.5
38.2 39.0 8.7 51.9 43.9 8.0
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
85.3 14.1 45.7 20.9 4.6 0.0
96.3 18.6 58.1 15.7 3.9 0.0
103.4 16.2 66.8 15.4 5.0 0.0
111.9 15.6 71.8 14.6 9.9 0.0
122.0 16.3 79.8 14.7 11.3 0.0
139.2 17.2 91.9 15.3 14.8 0.0
151.6 17.9 98.7 16.0 19.0 0.0
160.8 18.4 101.9 16.7 23.8 0.0
168.7 18.8 105.7 17.2 27.1 0.0
1.9 1.4 3.9 -3.0 0.7
1.7 0.1 1.8 -0.4 8.6
2.2 1.0 2.2 0.8 5.3
1.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 3.6
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
60.3 18.6 38.0 3.7
54.2 31.3 22.6 0.3
54.9 37.3 17.5 0.1
58.4 43.4 14.9 0.1
68.1 51.3 16.7 0.1
79.7 60.6 19.0 0.1
87.3 66.4 20.9 0.1
92.6 70.4 22.1 0.1
96.3 73.4 22.8 0.1
-0.9 7.2 -7.5 -31.8
2.2 3.2 -0.4 -1.0
2.5 2.6 2.2 1.8
1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
2812 100 1351 768 272 174 147
2857 131 1518 783 200 185 40
4377 112 2249 1509 304 197 5
6164 107 2961 2476 272 344 5
6881 110 3172 2915 290 388 6
7645 114 3312 3412 312 488 6
7924 113 3315 3604 305 579 7
7976 111 3239 3655 295 669 7
7766 107 3058 3620 259 715 7
4.5 1.1 5.2 7.0 1.1 1.3 -28.6
4.6 -0.1 3.5 6.8 -0.5 7.0 1.2
1.4 0.3 0.4 2.1 0.5 4.1 1.7
-0.2 -0.6 -0.8 0.0 -1.6 2.1 0.4
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
77
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Denmark: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
10062 0 6093 2770 0 1199 2 1140 52 2 2
15593 0 9357 4702 0 1534 3 1423 101 5 2
27665 0 18189 7412 0 2065 3 1687 365 8 3
31280 0 18942 9383 0 2955 2 2371 569 10 3
25952 0 14670 8100 0 3182 2 2460 686 33 0
22971 0 12500 6980 0 3491 2 2526 888 75 0
19361 0 9500 6040 0 3821 2 2662 1034 122 0
17572 0 8500 4800 0 4272 2 2799 1280 190 0
15448 0 7500 3500 0 4448 2 2895 1322 229 0
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
8621 6216 2727 2036 691 -928 606
7544 7664 1439 804 635 -1496 -68
-7259 3784 -8277 -9803 1526 -2882 57
-10433 3540 -9388 -11214 1826 -5010 118
-6143 3311 -6466 -7199 733 -3584 92
-3306 2906 -4421 -5096 675 -2670 118
501 2712 -1530 -2156 625 -1746 136
2152 2536 -678 -1233 555 -934 185
3994 2435 -77 -431 354 353 184
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
17893 6088 8181 1818 0 608 1199
20283 6498 9143 3170 0 -68 1540
19522 3987 8905 4449 0 57 2124
19702 3751 8171 4399 0 118 3262
19049 3311 7444 4516 0 92 3685
18879 2906 7294 4310 0 118 4251
19061 2712 7169 4294 0 136 4750
18904 2536 7002 3866 0 185 5315
18601 2435 6581 3853 0 184 5547
34.0 45.7 10.2 0.0 6.7
32.0 45.1 15.6 0.0 7.6
20.4 45.6 22.8 0.0 10.9
19.0 41.5 22.3 0.0 16.6
17.4 39.1 23.7 0.0 19.3
15.4 38.6 22.8 0.0 22.5
14.2 37.6 22.5 0.0 24.9
13.4 37.0 20.5 0.0 28.1
13.1 35.4 20.7 0.0 29.8
25733 3289
36648 4389
36043 3708
36348 3457
36656 3323
37969 3243
39018 3318
40545 3807
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
6016 5541 237 174 65 0 0
8423 6061 1008 975 378 0 0
7821 3667 1344 2112 699 0 0
7165 3444 344 2003 1374 0 0
6364 3102 69 1757 1436 0 0
6344 2709 62 1813 1759 0 0
6319 2520 58 1887 1854 0 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
9099 8048 0 1009 42
10781 9985 0 766 31
9008 8472 0 519 17
8362 7841 0 508 13
8395 7471 134 790 0
8229 7404 221 604 0
Energy Branch Consumption
733
1010
1157
1264
1246
Non-Energy Uses
299
298
298
285
263
13522
14750
14638
15457
2715 1078 1637 3954 2829 4024
3031 1125 1906 4474 2786 4460
2941 1149 1792 4158 2807 4732
396 7127 1159 2517 1758 566 0
405 7162 1691 2655 2242 595 0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
10.6
-0.6
-2.9
-2.2
11.6 10.3
-2.1 0.9
-4.3 -2.9
-2.3 -5.3
5.6 1.1 4.0 21.4 12.9 1.9
4.4 -3.5 3.8 6.5 15.3 -36.1
1.8 2.4 0.8 4.2 13.9 1.0
1.5 -0.1 0.8 2.5 6.5 0.4
-4.8
-1.3
-2.0
23.1 -1.1
8.3
-7.1
-1.6
-5.5
-21.0
4.9
3.9
3.1
0.9 -4.1 0.9 9.4
-0.2 -1.8 -1.8 0.1
0.0 -2.0 -0.4 -0.5
-0.2 -1.1 -0.9 -1.1
-21.0 5.9
4.9 5.7
3.9 2.6
3.1 1.6
41859 3938
3.4 1.2
0.2 -1.1
0.6 0.0
0.7 1.7
6247 2347 75 1607 2219 0 0
6359 2237 33 1567 2522 0 0
2.7 -4.0 19.0 28.4 26.9
-2.0 -1.7 -25.7 -1.8 7.5
-0.1 -2.1 -1.7 0.7 2.6
0.1 -1.2 -5.5 -1.8 3.1
8340 7344 315 681 0
8257 7267 343 647 0
8035 7069 370 596 0
-0.1 0.5
-0.7 -1.2
-6.4 -8.4
4.3
-0.1 -0.2 8.9 -1.5
-0.4 -0.4 1.6 -1.3
1167
1135
1078
1031
4.7
0.7
-0.9
-1.0
277
287
301
317
0.0
-1.2
0.9
1.0
15064
15304
15469
15447
15214
0.8
0.3
0.3
-0.2
2866 1117 1749 4462 2861 5269
2612 979 1633 4520 2832 5100
2503 932 1572 4721 2870 5210
2527 936 1590 4781 2924 5238
2575 949 1626 4786 2990 5096
2621 961 1660 4779 3013 4802
0.8 0.6 0.9 0.5 -0.1 1.6
-1.2 -1.6 -0.9 0.8 0.1 0.8
-0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3
0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.3 -0.9
290 6979 1667 2791 2255 657 0
253 7234 1702 2877 2444 947 0
207 6613 1785 2895 2449 1114 0
196 6498 1752 3042 2665 1151 1
191 6365 1637 3143 2726 1407 1
187 6196 1553 3282 2821 1407 1
198 5849 1493 3385 2841 1447 1
-3.1 -0.2 3.7 1.0 2.5 1.5
-3.3 -0.5 0.7 0.4 0.8 5.4
-0.8 -0.4 -0.9 0.8 1.1 2.4 8.3
0.4 -0.8 -0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5
1812
2774
3131
3790
4282
4828
5068
5.6
3.2
1.7
69.4
59.8 25.1 44.6 17.4 2.4 4.1 3.6 2.4 14.7 2.1 13.1
57.1 23.3 42.1 15.5 2.3 3.6 3.6 2.4 14.8 2.2 12.8
56.0 23.3 41.0 15.1 2.2 3.5 3.2 2.4 14.6 2.2 12.8
53.8 22.1 38.8 13.9 2.0 3.5 2.9 2.4 14.1 2.3 12.7
52.0 21.3 37.0 13.3 1.9 3.4 2.8 2.5 13.1 2.3 12.7
0.0
-1.5
52.3 24.0 2.4 5.2 3.9 2.9 13.9 2.4 14.7
64.5 29.2 48.9 19.7 2.5 4.9 3.5 2.7 15.6 2.2 13.4
0.1 -0.2 4.9 -0.3 -2.3 -2.0 1.6 4.8 -1.0
-1.6 -3.2 0.3 -2.4 -0.7 -1.9 0.5 -1.3 -1.2
-0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1.4 -1.0 -1.5 -1.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.2
-0.7 -0.9 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -0.2 -1.2 0.4 -1.1 0.4 -0.1
99.9
92.7
86.0
82.1
80.5
77.3
74.8
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
69.5 51.7 24.5 1.5 5.4 4.9 3.6 11.9 1.5 16.3 100.0
59.3 30.2 2.0 5.9 4.9 3.1 13.2 1.9
Source: PRIMES
78
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Denmark: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
5.135 150.8 118.7 2.89 45.7
5.216 169.2 119.8 2.92 34.5
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
5.330 194.8 100.2 2.68 -34.8
5.411 207.4 95.0 2.48 -50.8
5.512 209.0 91.2 2.34 -31.0
5.591 226.9 83.2 2.23 -16.8
5.661 245.9 77.5 2.15 2.5
5.736 268.3 70.5 2.05 10.9
5.808 289.6 64.2 1.99 20.5
16.9 8.7
18.2 8.8
18.6 8.9
21.1 9.3
24.5 10.0
26.8 10.0
27.8 9.6
0.4 2.6 -1.7 -0.7
0.3 0.7 -0.9 -1.3
0.3 1.6 -1.6 -0.9
0.3 1.7 -1.9 -0.8
1.0
2.8
1.3
105.2 114.7 127.4 36.5 69.2
105.9 115.7 113.7 37.6 66.4
100.0 100.0 100.0 38.1 66.6
91.7 96.2 97.5 41.0 74.5
84.4 100.0 94.1 39.7 74.0
75.8 97.2 86.7 36.8 73.5
71.6 91.3 81.3 35.5 70.4
66.9 84.2 76.1 32.4 66.9
63.6 77.4 70.9 28.7 61.9
-0.5 -1.4 -2.4 0.4 -0.4
-1.7 0.0 -0.6 0.4 1.1
-1.6 -0.9 -1.5 -1.1 -0.5
-1.2 -1.6 -1.4 -2.1 -1.3
0.48 1.91 1.98 1.24 1.27 2.96
0.43 1.84 1.95 1.09 1.12 2.95
0.35 1.77 1.77 0.94 1.04 2.95
0.27 1.73 1.70 0.79 0.94 2.96
0.24 1.65 1.57 0.80 0.85 2.88
0.20 1.59 1.43 0.76 0.82 2.84
0.19 1.53 1.39 0.67 0.82 2.78
0.17 1.49 1.37 0.61 0.81 2.76
0.16 1.43 1.31 0.59 0.83 2.72
-3.1 -0.7 -1.1 -2.8 -1.9 0.0
-3.7 -0.7 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0 -0.2
-2.2 -0.7 -1.2 -1.8 -0.4 -0.3
-1.7 -0.6 -0.5 -1.2 0.1 -0.2
11.7 0.1
16.9 0.2
19.6 3.5
23.4 5.7
26.3 8.3
29.8 9.5
31.5 11.1
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
36043 0 15757 4920 9246 1849 30 4240 0 0
36348 0 15052 1371 9308 3982 23 6613 0 0
36656 0 13764 317 9327 5239 21 7981 6 0
37969 0 12061 252 8954 6318 27 10321 36 0
39018 0 11159 232 9182 6334 27 12027 57 0
40545 0 9839 284 7690 7740 25 14887 78 0
41859 0 9636 133 7523 9063 26 15374 104 0
0.2
0.6
0.7
-1.3 -24.0 0.1 11.0 -3.5 6.5
-2.1 -3.1 -0.2 1.9 2.4 4.2 24.5
-1.5 -5.4 -2.0 3.6 -0.1 2.5 6.2
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
12431 0 2403 10 2392 1 0 10028 4488 0 6232 2092 1124 581 0 0
13128 0 3143 11 3129 3 0 9985 4691 0 5752 2257 1099 877 0 0
13199 0 3746 11 3719 16 0 9452 4692 0 5269 2227 1022 934 0 0
12853 0 4251 11 4202 38 0 8603 5044 0 4451 2232 982 937 0 0
12092 0 4811 11 4741 60 0 7281 4955 0 3503 2376 387 1015 0 0
12987 0 5783 11 5690 81 0 7204 5063 0 3466 2371 228 1138 0 0
13456 0 5983 11 5864 109 0 7473 5354 41 3459 2552 117 1345 0 0
0.6
-0.9
1.1
4.5 1.0 4.5 32.0
2.5 0.0 2.5 14.0
2.2 0.0 2.1 6.2
-0.6 0.4
-2.6 0.5
0.3 0.8
-1.7 0.6 -0.9 4.9
-4.0 0.6 -9.2 0.8
-0.1 0.7 -11.3 2.9
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
31.6
30.0
30.3
32.4
35.5
34.0
33.9
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
34.9 55.4 0.0 17.0 0.0 17.0
35.7 59.0 0.0 29.2 0.0 29.2
38.7 65.9 0.0 36.1 0.0 36.1
37.4 66.4 0.0 44.0 0.0 44.0
36.6 62.0 0.0 47.3 0.0 47.3
35.2 57.4 0.0 56.1 0.0 56.1
35.6 57.9 0.8 58.7 0.0 58.7
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
68.9 6.4 48.0 5.1 5.2 4.2
71.6 7.3 49.1 4.9 6.5 3.8
76.1 7.4 51.9 5.5 7.9 3.3
79.5 7.3 53.7 6.1 9.3 3.0
82.8 7.4 56.1 6.4 9.8 3.1
88.9 7.8 59.6 6.8 11.5 3.2
92.6 8.0 60.4 7.3 13.5 3.4
96.8 8.3 61.4 7.8 15.7 3.6
100.5 8.5 62.1 8.3 17.9 3.7
1.0 1.4 0.8 0.9 4.3 -2.5
0.8 0.0 0.8 1.4 2.2 -0.6
1.1 0.8 0.7 1.4 3.2 0.9
0.8 0.6 0.3 1.2 2.9 0.9
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
21.7 18.1 1.7 1.9
26.7 22.4 2.0 2.3
27.5 24.0 2.0 1.5
27.0 23.3 2.0 1.7
24.5 21.0 1.8 1.7
26.3 22.6 1.9 1.8
27.6 23.8 2.0 1.9
29.3 25.2 2.1 2.0
30.9 26.6 2.3 2.0
2.4 2.9 1.6 -2.4
-1.1 -1.3 -1.2 1.5
1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8
1.1 1.1 1.4 0.7
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
4024 59 1627 1383 114 690 150
4460 74 1776 1636 118 675 182
4732 76 1882 1735 103 820 116
5269 75 2100 1908 107 943 136
5100 75 2098 1719 97 971 139
5210 77 1994 1836 100 1057 145
5238 76 1857 1852 95 1207 151
5096 74 1657 1868 90 1250 158
4802 71 1484 1858 55 1171 163
1.6 2.6 1.5 2.3 -1.0 1.7 -2.6
0.8 -0.1 1.1 -0.1 -0.6 1.7 1.9
0.3 0.1 -1.2 0.7 -0.3 2.2 0.8
-0.9 -0.6 -2.2 0.0 -5.3 -0.3 0.7
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
79
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Estonia: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
5500 5050 0 0 0 450 0 450 0 0 0
3354 2868 0 0 0 487 0 486 0 0 0
3186 2672 2 0 0 512 0 512 0 0 0
4210 3176 354 0 0 680 2 674 5 0 0
3307 2438 120 0 0 749 1 728 18 1 0
3838 2763 90 0 0 985 1 919 62 3 0
4108 2797 74 0 0 1237 2 1119 112 4 0
4124 2752 60 0 0 1312 2 1172 133 5 0
4179 2761 38 0 0 1379 2 1178 193 6 0
-5.3 -6.2
0.4 -0.9 51.3
2.2 1.4 -4.7
0.2 -0.1 -6.4
1.3
3.9 13.2 3.6 70.7
5.2 1.7 4.4 20.0 11.4 1.9
1.1 1.0 0.5 5.5 4.6 1.6
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
4470 697 3153 0 3153 1222 -602
1995 293 1185 0 1185 583 -65
1593 272 744 0 744 662 -80
1471 30 873 0 873 800 -138
1693 87 1088 1 1087 813 -150
1713 84 1259 1 1258 847 -223
1566 82 1287 1 1286 889 -296
1619 76 1324 1 1322 909 -300
1645 75 1298 1 1297 938 -300
-9.8 -9.0 -13.4
0.6 -10.7 3.9
-13.4 -5.9
3.9 2.1
-0.8 -0.6 1.7 1.1 1.7 0.9
0.5 -0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
9919 5967 2872 1222 0 -602 460
5347 3310 1039 583 0 -65 481
4696 2974 627 662 0 -80 513
5559 3191 1118 800 0 -138 589
4873 2526 1082 813 0 -150 603
5415 2847 1211 847 0 -223 732
5531 2879 1218 889 0 -296 840
5592 2829 1233 909 0 -300 921
5665 2836 1178 938 0 -300 1014
-7.2 -6.7 -14.1 -5.9
0.4 -1.6 5.6 2.1
1.3 1.3 1.2 0.9
0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.5
1.1
1.6
3.4
1.9
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
60.2 28.9 12.3 0.0 4.6
61.9 19.4 10.9 0.0 9.0
63.3 13.4 14.1 0.0 10.9
57.4 20.1 14.4 0.0 10.6
51.8 22.2 16.7 0.0 12.4
52.6 22.4 15.6 0.0 13.5
52.1 22.0 16.1 0.0 15.2
50.6 22.1 16.3 0.0 16.5
50.1 20.8 16.6 0.0 17.9
17178 2879
8691 2858
8511 2162
10203 2194
10687 2252
12759 2456
14281 2528
14871 2503
15578 2449
-6.8 -2.8
2.3 0.4
2.9 1.2
0.9 -0.3
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
5654 5085 210 357 2 0 0
2673 2491 80 100 2 0 0
2439 2200 12 226 2 0 0
2539 2294 10 227 8 0 0
2560 2367 0 167 25 0 0
2907 2661 2 168 77 0 0
2935 2657 3 146 128 0 0
2903 2597 2 139 164 0 0
2910 2600 2 116 192 0 0
-8.1 -8.0 -25.2 -4.5 -0.3
0.5 0.7
1.4 1.2
-2.9 28.5
-1.4 17.6
-0.1 -0.2 -2.9 -2.3 4.1
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
1906 1 0 1607 299
788 1 0 501 287
662 1 0 456 206
725 1 0 495 229
473 1 18 448 6
501 1 26 470 3
500 1 34 462 2
497 1 41 453 2
490 1 49 439 1
-10.0 0.0
-3.3 -0.1
-11.8 -3.7
-0.2 -30.2
0.6 1.1 6.4 0.3 -8.8
-0.2 0.0 3.6 -0.5 -4.2
Energy Branch Consumption
295
148
172
196
186
201
208
207
203
-5.3
0.8
1.1
-0.2
Non-Energy Uses
170
230
220
231
210
263
301
330
336
2.6
-0.4
3.6
1.1
6018
2496
2365
2783
2807
3098
3262
3391
3483
-8.9
1.7
1.5
0.7
2735 666 2069 1277 1166 841
787 429 358 966 252 492
529 200 328 928 329 579
645 192 453 889 479 769
695 189 505 880 443 789
844 220 624 913 496 845
927 237 691 935 518 882
995 245 750 944 537 914
1068 252 816 939 545 931
-15.2 -11.3 -16.8 -3.1 -11.9 -3.7
2.8 -0.5 4.4 -0.5 3.0 3.1
2.9 2.2 3.2 0.6 1.6 1.1
1.4 0.6 1.7 0.0 0.5 0.5
703 1808 439 585 2086 397 0
193 858 202 386 593 265 0
117 750 134 427 511 425 0
98 965 207 518 547 447 0
101 977 230 546 518 436 0
132 1062 254 636 574 440 0
166 1069 291 688 602 445 0
179 1085 298 738 622 468 0
177 1052 322 803 631 496 0
-16.4 -8.4 -11.2 -3.1 -13.1 0.7
-1.5 2.7 5.5 2.5 0.1 0.3
5.1 0.9 2.4 2.3 1.5 0.2 11.0
0.7 -0.2 1.0 1.6 0.5 1.1 3.0
Annual % Change
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
1.3
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
43.7 37.1 27.3 0.4 4.6 1.2 1.2 2.4 0.9 5.6 100.0
16.0 12.1 0.0 1.7 0.5 0.3 1.4 0.6
426
548
577
696
781
860
951
17.6 13.9 10.7 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 1.7 0.6 3.1
18.4 12.5 15.0 11.1 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.5 2.3 0.6 2.8
18.2 12.3 15.1 11.1 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.4 2.3 0.6 2.5
20.0 13.8 16.8 12.3 0.1 1.3 0.2 0.4 2.4 0.7 2.5
20.4 13.9 17.0 12.3 0.1 1.4 0.2 0.5 2.5 0.8 2.5
20.3 13.7 16.8 12.0 0.1 1.5 0.2 0.5 2.6 0.9 2.5
20.3 13.8 16.7 11.9 0.1 1.5 0.2 0.5 2.5 1.0 2.5
40.2
42.2
41.7
45.8
46.6
46.4
46.4
3.1
3.1
2.0
-8.7
0.4
-9.4 -8.9 -11.7 -16.1 -13.5 -14.1 -3.6 -4.7 -5.7
0.9 0.3 0.9 2.1 -3.1 4.8 3.0 -0.3 -2.0
1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.4 4.0 -1.1 0.6 1.0 3.7 0.1
0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -1.2 0.1 -0.6 0.6 0.1 1.9 0.0
Source: PRIMES
80
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Estonia: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
1.571 8.3 1196.0 3.74 44.3
1.448 5.7 943.4 2.99 36.7
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
1.372 7.6 618.0 2.96 33.2
1.348 11.1 501.2 2.70 25.9
1.333 11.2 435.5 3.10 33.9
1.323 13.5 402.5 3.11 30.9
1.311 15.4 358.3 3.07 27.6
1.292 17.4 322.3 3.00 28.2
1.267 19.4 292.2 2.95 28.2
1.3 16.7
1.8 16.2
2.0 17.8
2.4 18.0
3.0 19.3
3.4 19.8
3.6 18.7
-1.3 -0.9 -6.4 -2.3
-0.3 3.9 -3.4 0.5
-0.2 3.3 -1.9 -0.1
-0.3 2.3 -2.0 -0.4
4.6
4.1
2.0
319.4 136.3 402.7 37.6 40.4
219.8 146.4 106.6 42.8 26.9
100.0 100.0 100.0 33.8 19.1
69.4 60.7 104.0 32.2 19.0
62.6 69.8 106.8 31.5 22.4
59.1 63.0 95.0 29.4 22.2
56.2 58.4 86.6 28.5 22.1
53.1 54.4 79.6 27.4 22.1
50.4 49.5 71.9 25.8 21.7
-11.0 -3.1 -13.0 -1.1 -7.2
-4.6 -3.5 0.7 -0.7 1.6
-1.1 -1.8 -2.1 -1.0 -0.1
-1.1 -1.6 -1.8 -1.0 -0.2
0.64 1.56 1.66 0.93 1.05 2.89
0.70 1.55 2.18 0.48 1.00 2.90
0.67 1.28 1.50 0.30 0.82 2.92
0.62 1.36 1.27 0.25 0.98 2.95
0.62 1.38 1.40 0.23 0.96 2.89
0.59 1.40 1.52 0.19 0.90 2.87
0.54 1.41 1.55 0.20 0.88 2.84
0.51 1.39 1.48 0.18 0.90 2.82
0.50 1.34 1.37 0.18 0.89 2.73
0.5 -2.0 -1.1 -10.6 -2.5 0.1
-0.9 0.8 -0.7 -2.6 1.7 -0.1
-1.3 0.2 1.1 -1.7 -0.9 -0.2
-0.9 -0.5 -1.3 -0.7 0.1 -0.4
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
16.0 0.0
17.9 0.0
18.7 2.5
20.4 3.4
21.9 4.4
23.3 5.3
25.2 7.0
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
8511 0 7604 37 859 6 5 1 0 0
10203 0 9261 32 809 25 22 54 0 0
10687 0 9764 0 576 118 17 210 1 0
12759 0 10811 7 890 314 17 717 2 0
14281 0 11544 13 840 554 20 1307 2 0
14871 0 11744 11 813 735 22 1543 3 0
15578 0 11755 10 697 847 22 2242 5 0
2.3
2.9
0.9
2.5
1.7
-3.9 34.7 13.2 70.7
3.8 16.7 1.7 20.0 11.1
0.2 -2.9 -1.9 4.3 1.0 5.5 8.6
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
2575 0 3 2 1 0 0 2572 486 0 2348 205 12 7 0 0
2293 0 36 5 31 0 0 2257 345 0 2023 205 12 16 0 0
2428 0 115 5 108 2 0 2313 394 0 2056 206 13 39 0 0
2777 0 400 5 393 2 0 2378 357 0 1926 390 13 49 0 0
3107 0 643 6 635 2 0 2464 434 0 2105 287 3 69 0 0
3361 0 756 6 747 3 0 2605 476 0 2092 429 3 81 0 0
3690 0 1001 6 990 6 0 2689 497 0 2092 491 2 104 0 0
-0.6
2.5
1.7
45.2 9.6 64.2
18.8 1.3 19.4 2.1
4.5 0.0 4.5 8.6
-1.1 -2.1
0.6 1.0
0.9 1.4
-1.3 0.0 0.1 19.5
0.2 3.4 -14.4 5.7
-0.1 5.5 -3.5 4.2
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
33.7
45.4
44.8
47.1
47.3
45.7
43.8
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
30.0 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
34.3 11.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0
35.1 16.4 0.0 3.2 0.0 3.2
35.6 15.7 0.0 8.2 0.0 8.2
38.0 19.8 0.0 13.2 0.0 13.2
39.4 20.6 0.0 15.5 0.0 15.5
39.3 21.1 0.0 20.0 0.0 20.0
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
10.0 4.5 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.4
8.1 2.0 5.2 0.5 0.1 0.2
10.3 2.6 6.8 0.4 0.2 0.4
14.2 2.7 10.0 0.3 0.7 0.4
14.4 2.7 10.1 0.4 0.8 0.4
15.5 2.7 11.0 0.4 1.1 0.4
16.1 2.8 11.1 0.4 1.5 0.4
16.8 2.8 11.1 0.4 2.0 0.4
17.4 2.9 11.2 0.4 2.5 0.4
0.3 -5.1 8.0 -13.8 -6.7 -1.6
3.4 0.1 4.1 -0.2 16.8 -0.3
1.2 0.3 0.9 1.0 6.0 0.6
0.8 0.4 0.1 0.4 5.3 0.4
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
11.5 4.5 7.0 0.0
5.4 1.5 3.8 0.0
12.0 3.9 8.1 0.0
16.5 5.8 10.6 0.0
15.1 6.6 8.5 0.0
17.4 7.6 9.8 0.0
19.1 8.4 10.7 0.0
20.6 9.2 11.4 0.0
22.2 10.2 12.0 0.0
0.5 -1.4 1.5
2.3 5.2 0.5
2.4 2.5 2.3
1.5 2.0 1.2
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
841 59 267 407 66 36 7
492 13 308 104 45 18 4
579 15 305 180 52 20 7
769 16 385 266 49 42 11
789 16 375 299 39 49 11
845 16 368 345 44 61 12
882 15 356 378 45 76 12
914 15 340 409 46 93 12
931 14 310 440 43 112 12
-3.7 -12.5 1.4 -7.8 -2.4 -5.9 0.0
3.1 0.2 2.1 5.2 -2.8 9.6 4.9
1.1 -0.3 -0.5 2.4 1.5 4.5 0.6
0.5 -0.6 -1.4 1.5 -0.5 3.9 0.2
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
81
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Finland: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
11860 1581 0 0 5006 5273 934 4338 0 0 0
13166 2061 15 0 4957 6133 1111 5021 1 0 0
14991 1207 37 0 5799 7949 1261 6681 7 1 0
16468 2129 205 0 6003 8131 1185 6930 15 1 0
16007 1759 0 0 5997 8251 1136 7062 45 8 0
19233 1519 0 0 9131 8583 1129 7350 84 21 0
20368 1490 0 0 9842 9036 1134 7649 218 35 0
21268 1342 0 0 10694 9232 1160 7674 343 54 0
21385 1274 0 0 10694 9417 1179 7814 370 53 0
2.4 -2.7
0.7 3.8
2.4 -1.7
0.5 -1.5
1.5 4.2 3.0 4.4 3.8
0.3 0.4 -1.0 0.6 21.0 30.6
5.1 0.9 0.0 0.8 17.0 16.1 2.3
0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 5.4 4.1 -0.2
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
18124 4378 10570 8930 1639 2261 915
15650 3774 8314 8579 -265 2839 723
18587 3533 10610 12164 -1553 3422 1021
19306 3338 10985 11068 -84 3598 1463
18762 4052 9370 10453 -1083 4177 1088
18197 3325 9612 10710 -1098 4076 860
17603 3464 8919 10052 -1133 3982 662
17291 3321 8586 9733 -1147 4008 559
16620 3210 8155 9319 -1163 3889 539
0.3 -2.1 0.0 3.1
0.1 1.4 -1.2 -1.5
-0.6 -1.6 -0.5 -0.4
-0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8
4.2 1.1
2.0 0.6
-0.5 -4.8
-0.2 -2.0
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
29046 5327 10029 2261 5006 915 5508
29070 5950 8455 2839 4957 723 6146
32544 5087 9266 3422 5799 1021 7949
34666 4925 10625 3598 6003 1463 8053
34297 5811 8898 4177 5997 1088 8326
36951 4844 9132 4076 9131 860 8907
37489 4953 8437 3982 9842 662 9612
38068 4663 8095 4008 10694 559 10049
37501 4484 7652 3889 10694 539 10242
1.1 -0.5 -0.8 4.2 1.5 1.1 3.7
0.5 1.3 -0.4 2.0 0.3 0.6 0.5
0.9 -1.6 -0.5 -0.5 5.1 -4.8 1.4
0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 0.8 -2.0 0.6
18.3 34.5 7.8 17.2 19.0
20.5 29.1 9.8 17.1 21.1
15.6 28.5 10.5 17.8 24.4
14.2 30.7 10.4 17.3 23.2
16.9 25.9 12.2 17.5 24.3
13.1 24.7 11.0 24.7 24.1
13.2 22.5 10.6 26.3 25.6
12.2 21.3 10.5 28.1 26.4
12.0 20.4 10.4 28.5 27.3
54367 5546
64052 6510
69976 5543
70540 5756
79419 6331
89020 7300
93924 7565
99027 9045
99538 9665
2.6 0.0
1.3 1.3
1.7 1.8
0.6 2.5
5451 3216 294 1015 926 0 0
6714 3882 256 1581 996 0 0
6923 3168 131 2106 1518 0 0
7538 2974 107 2384 2073 0 0
10548 4461 221 2949 2917 0 0
8676 3449 162 2003 3062 0 0
8785 3564 123 1834 3264 0 0
8320 3088 114 1834 3284 0 0
8134 2661 91 1845 3537 0 0
2.4 -0.1 -7.8 7.6 5.1
4.3 3.5 5.4 3.4 6.8
-1.8 -2.2 -5.7 -4.6 1.1
-0.8 -2.9 -3.0 0.1 0.8
12101 10735 0 573 793
14065 12067 0 548 1451
15357 13249 0 803 1306
15526 13248 0 954 1325
13043 10855 70 1134 984
13929 11140 164 1676 948
13450 10481 221 1794 955
13190 10160 258 1849 923
12672 9739 286 1733 914
2.4 2.1
-1.6 -2.0
3.4 5.1
3.5 -2.8
0.3 -0.4 12.2 4.7 -0.3
-0.6 -0.7 2.6 -0.3 -0.4 0.7
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
776
959
1281
1263
1221
1261
1226
1296
1311
5.1
-0.5
0.0
1492
1203
946
1149
1092
1156
1161
1157
1170
-4.4
1.4
0.6
0.1
21758
22069
24176
25157
24640
25582
25614
25507
25126
1.1
0.2
0.4
-0.2
9620 7353 2268 5333 2483 4321
9989 7629 2360 5430 2487 4162
12046 9446 2599 4541 3132 4457
11999 9070 2929 4849 3478 4831
11283 8204 3079 5069 3566 4721
11781 8256 3525 5180 3861 4760
11929 8271 3658 5167 3838 4680
11994 8207 3787 5091 3880 4543
12001 8143 3858 5021 3777 4326
2.3 2.5 1.4 -1.6 2.3 0.3
-0.7 -1.4 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.6
0.6 0.1 1.7 0.2 0.7 -0.1
0.1 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.8
1621 8131 1501 5068 1915 3522 0
1277 7591 1523 5608 2126 3944 0
1099 7535 1328 6487 2780 4946 0
966 7920 1156 6959 3597 4559 0
734 6724 879 7300 5101 3902 0
787 6916 1354 7813 4458 4254 1
791 6327 1357 8017 4547 4575 1
998 6022 1387 8227 4053 4820 1
1263 5704 1244 8201 3971 4742 1
-3.8 -0.8 -1.2 2.5 3.8 3.5
-4.0 -1.1 -4.0 1.2 6.3 -2.3
0.8 -0.6 4.4 0.9 -1.1 1.6 7.9
4.8 -1.0 -0.9 0.2 -1.3 0.4 -0.3
7256
7401
7822
8370
9039
9360
9571
70.1 53.7 20.2 2.6 12.5 2.4 3.0 13.1 3.8 12.6
70.3 37.5 54.1 20.5 2.5 11.8 2.1 3.0 14.2 3.9 12.3
71.6 40.7 55.9 28.2 2.1 7.2 2.1 2.7 13.7 3.6 12.1
66.8 35.8 52.4 22.9 1.9 9.0 2.4 2.7 13.5 3.8 10.7
64.9 35.5 50.5 23.0 1.7 8.1 2.2 2.4 13.1 3.8 10.6
61.8 33.0 47.6 20.4 1.5 8.6 2.1 2.4 12.6 3.9 10.3
56.8 28.7 42.7 15.8 1.5 9.3 2.1 2.2 11.9 3.9 10.2
97.1
97.4
99.2
92.5
89.8
85.6
78.7
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
72.2 54.4 17.8 1.4 14.0 6.5 2.1 12.7 3.7 14.2 100.0
55.6 21.8 1.6 12.3 5.9 1.8 12.2 3.3
0.8
1.5
0.6
-0.3
0.2
-0.1 1.3 6.6 -1.2 -9.6 3.8 0.3 0.4 -1.2
0.4 3.4 -2.3 -5.4 -1.2 -1.2 0.4 -0.6 -0.4
-1.0 -1.4 -1.0 -2.0 -1.7 1.3 0.3 -1.3 -0.4 0.7 -1.4
-1.3 -2.1 -1.6 -3.7 -1.6 1.4 -0.3 -0.5 -1.0 0.2 -0.4
Source: PRIMES
82
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Finland: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
4.974 114.0 254.9 1.87 61.2
5.099 109.7 265.0 1.91 53.2
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
5.171 138.8 234.5 1.65 56.0
5.237 157.1 220.7 1.56 54.9
5.337 165.5 207.2 1.63 54.0
5.429 183.9 200.9 1.42 48.6
5.501 201.4 186.1 1.35 46.4
5.549 217.3 175.2 1.25 44.8
5.569 233.5 160.6 1.14 43.7
15.2 10.9
17.9 11.4
19.3 11.7
22.1 12.0
25.8 12.8
27.8 12.8
28.9 12.4
0.4 2.0 -0.8 -1.3
0.3 1.8 -1.2 -0.1
0.3 2.0 -1.1 -1.9
0.1 1.5 -1.5 -1.7
2.5
2.9
1.1
134.0 132.1 94.6 35.9 46.0
126.6 141.3 96.3 35.5 45.8
100.0 100.0 100.0 35.5 38.2
82.1 91.2 101.6 37.8 36.9
73.6 93.9 99.0 36.6 35.8
67.9 87.8 95.7 33.8 35.5
63.2 80.8 86.5 31.6 34.0
59.7 74.2 80.5 29.3 32.5
56.8 67.7 72.4 26.6 30.5
-2.9 -2.7 0.6 -0.1 -1.8
-3.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.3 -0.7
-1.5 -1.5 -1.3 -1.5 -0.5
-1.1 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.1
0.23 1.62 1.46 1.21 0.84 2.94
0.24 1.46 1.24 1.09 0.70 2.93
0.19 1.28 1.03 0.52 0.97 2.94
0.18 1.24 0.98 0.43 0.87 2.94
0.20 1.04 0.63 0.41 0.75 2.90
0.16 1.08 0.76 0.46 0.69 2.84
0.15 1.00 0.68 0.42 0.61 2.80
0.13 1.01 0.72 0.42 0.61 2.77
0.10 1.02 0.78 0.42 0.59 2.74
-1.6 -2.3 -3.4 -8.1 1.4 0.0
0.2 -2.1 -4.8 -2.2 -2.5 -0.2
-2.6 -0.3 0.7 0.1 -2.0 -0.3
-3.6 0.1 1.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.2
29.2 0.3
28.5 0.4
30.7 2.1
31.6 4.4
34.0 6.0
35.2 7.3
36.5 8.8
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
69976 22475 14241 554 10676 7292 14657 78 2 0
70540 23267 11925 431 11917 9047 13782 170 3 0
79419 23248 14594 910 13988 12941 13206 525 7 0
89020 36244 12603 849 10753 14431 13124 972 44 0
93924 39213 13089 602 10142 15088 13185 2530 75 0
99027 42874 12210 433 10447 15479 13493 3986 104 0
99538 42874 11591 325 10074 16529 13715 4299 131 0
1.3 0.3 0.2 5.1 2.7 5.9 -1.0 21.0 13.8
1.7 5.4 -1.1 -4.0 -3.2 1.5 0.0 17.0 26.2
0.6 0.9 -1.2 -6.0 -0.1 0.9 0.4 5.4 5.8
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
16630 2687 2882 2841 38 3 0 11060 5965 0 5562 3042 898 1558 0 0
17045 2690 3080 2994 82 4 0 11275 6033 0 5607 3007 897 1763 0 0
17583 2691 3291 2994 289 8 0 11601 6818 0 5626 3074 899 2002 0 0
20254 4207 3526 3014 466 46 0 12520 6287 0 5386 4201 494 2440 0 0
20856 4550 4163 3050 1036 78 0 12143 6199 0 5104 4172 436 2431 0 0
20935 4973 4760 3091 1561 108 0 11202 5974 85 3361 4769 399 2673 0 0
22066 4973 4943 3106 1701 136 0 12150 5610 443 3223 4505 176 4247 0 0
0.6 0.0 1.3 0.5 22.5 10.5
1.7 5.4 2.4 0.2 13.6 25.3
0.6 0.9 1.7 0.2 5.1 5.8
0.5 1.3
0.5 -0.9
0.0 -1.0
0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5
-1.0 3.1 -7.0 2.0
-4.5 0.8 -8.7 5.7
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
46.1
45.4
49.5
48.0
49.3
51.1
48.4
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
40.7 38.3 0.0 63.6 32.1 31.5
38.0 41.0 0.0 65.6 33.0 32.6
34.6 40.4 0.0 62.9 29.3 33.6
38.3 36.0 0.0 72.8 40.7 32.1
38.1 33.9 0.0 74.6 41.7 32.9
39.9 31.5 0.9 76.7 43.3 33.4
40.7 31.4 4.6 77.9 43.1 34.8
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
74.6 8.5 52.0 3.7 6.1 4.3
72.8 8.0 50.9 3.6 5.8 4.5
80.0 7.7 56.6 3.9 7.7 4.2
87.0 7.5 62.8 4.0 8.8 3.8
89.5 7.6 64.5 4.3 9.1 3.9
96.3 7.7 69.0 4.7 10.9 4.0
100.8 7.9 71.0 5.0 12.7 4.1
104.2 8.1 72.0 5.3 14.7 4.1
107.1 8.3 72.3 5.5 16.9 4.2
0.7 -1.0 0.9 0.6 2.4 -0.4
1.1 -0.2 1.3 1.0 1.8 -0.6
1.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 3.4 0.4
0.6 0.4 0.2 0.9 2.9 0.1
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
35.8 26.3 8.4 1.1
34.5 24.5 9.6 0.4
42.4 32.0 10.1 0.3
41.8 31.9 9.7 0.2
40.4 29.7 10.4 0.2
42.4 31.2 11.0 0.2
44.0 32.3 11.4 0.2
46.0 34.1 11.7 0.2
48.3 36.2 11.9 0.2
1.7 2.0 1.9 -12.2
-0.5 -0.7 0.3 -4.3
0.9 0.8 0.9 1.3
0.9 1.1 0.4 0.9
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
4321 78 2023 1546 100 459 116
4162 72 1967 1479 102 408 134
4457 69 2089 1529 94 505 170
4831 66 2459 1448 97 565 196
4721 66 2427 1349 101 577 202
4760 65 2326 1405 105 653 207
4680 64 2208 1399 99 701 209
4543 62 2025 1405 92 751 209
4326 59 1785 1412 66 795 209
0.3 -1.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 1.0 3.9
0.6 -0.4 1.5 -1.2 0.7 1.3 1.7
-0.1 -0.3 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 2.0 0.4
-0.8 -0.7 -2.1 0.1 -3.9 1.3 0.0
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
83
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
France: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
111013 7625 3514 2516 81018 16339 4635 11575 0 19 110
127609 5359 3509 2793 97308 18641 6322 12171 0 15 132
131920 2267 2897 1505 107093 18160 5822 12181 7 26 124
136736 383 1479 909 116474 17492 4496 12761 83 22 130
135007 340 0 0 114683 19985 4900 13728 977 223 157
140027 216 0 0 117571 22241 4921 14930 1708 524 159
148122 17 0 0 121548 26557 4932 16664 3858 917 185
152420 17 0 0 122404 29998 5129 17931 5407 1328 201
156164 11 0 0 122823 33330 5202 18082 6302 1746 1999
1.7 -11.4 -1.9 -5.0 2.8 1.1 2.3 0.5
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
120596 13004 87127 76561 10566 24371 -3907
116805 9010 86307 79689 6619 27493 -6005
134196 13201 91185 85250 5936 35778 -5974
144346 13504 95364 85529 9835 40720 -5187
138158 11257 90001 84073 5929 42076 -5040
136732 11758 87082 82744 4338 43459 -5296
130088 9201 83257 80974 2283 43200 -5323
123044 7405 79492 79144 348 40424 -4064
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
227754 19955 88316 26032 81018 -3907 16339
241418 15287 86611 29577 97308 -6005 18641
259828 15240 89539 35766 107093 -5975 18165
277086 14296 92991 41077 116474 -5188 17436
270384 11597 87220 42076 114683 -5040 19849
273850 11974 84173 43459 117571 -5296 21969
275266 9218 80314 43200 121548 -5323 26311
8.8 38.8 11.4 35.6 7.2
6.3 35.9 12.3 40.3 7.7
5.9 34.5 13.8 41.2 7.0
5.2 33.6 14.8 42.0 6.3
4.3 32.3 15.6 42.4 7.3
4.4 30.7 15.9 42.9 8.0
416667 61718
490848 69726
535963 72429
571367 80428
567236 59121
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
10983 7334 1920 1423 306 0 0
8553 5441 605 1216 1290 0 0
13122 6231 1284 4062 1545 0 0
16669 6404 1952 6288 2024 0 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
90122 80205 0 1019 8898
91635 83811 155 588 7081
98266 90956 328 312 6669
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
0.2 -17.3
0.9 -25.8
0.5 -4.3
2.8 1.2
0.7 1.0 -1.7 1.2 64.8 24.1 2.4
0.6 2.9 0.1 2.0 14.7 15.2 1.7
0.1 2.3 0.5 0.8 5.0 6.7 26.8
118195 6749 75281 77026 -1745 39711 -3421
1.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 -5.6 3.9
0.3 -1.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 1.6
-0.6 -2.0 -0.8 -0.4 -9.1 0.3
-1.0 -3.1 -1.0 -0.5
272455 7423 76484 40424 122404 -4064 29785
271259 6760 72182 39711 122823 -3421 33204
1.3 -2.7 0.1 3.2 2.8
0.4 -2.7 -0.3 1.6 0.7
0.2 -2.3 -0.8 0.3 0.6
-0.1 -3.1 -1.1 -0.8 0.1
1.1
0.9
2.9
2.4
3.3 29.2 15.7 44.2 9.6
2.7 28.1 14.8 44.9 10.9
2.5 26.6 14.6 45.3 12.2
604841 64442
637952 67739
657224 73903
678309 78750
2.5 1.6
0.6 -2.0
1.2 1.4
0.6 1.5
14124 5206 166 6179 2563 9 0
16455 5820 289 7080 3255 11 0
14337 3133 169 6894 4129 11 0
12390 1416 690 5900 4373 11 0
14326 1414 686 5796 4611 1819 0
1.8 -1.6 -3.9 11.1 17.6
0.7 -1.8 -18.5 4.3 5.2
0.1 -5.0 0.2 1.1 4.9 2.3
0.0 -7.6 15.0 -1.7 1.1 66.2
95011 88526 408 239 5838
91832 85607 1697 180 4348
91263 84177 2450 265 4371
89852 82258 3014 266 4314
88218 80367 3384 215 4252
86007 78216 3528 264 3999
0.9 1.3 -11.1 -2.8
-0.7 -0.6 17.9 -5.4 -4.2
-0.2 -0.4 5.9 4.0 -0.1
-0.4 -0.5 1.6 -0.1 -0.8
-0.8
9413
10501
10829
10252
10269
9225
9120
9115
8976
1.4
-0.5
-1.2
-0.2
13454
16838
15903
16133
15056
14786
14520
14305
14256
1.7
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
137226
142756
152708
157515
156469
158685
159637
158626
156219
1.1
0.2
0.2
-0.2
36439 23706 12733 37053 21698 42037
37119 21472 15647 37201 24144 44292
36887 22331 14556 42587 21648 51586
34001 20150 13850 45295 28279 49941
33351 18715 14635 45204 28584 49329
33868 18382 15486 45865 29540 49412
34344 18120 16224 46002 30039 49252
34838 17878 16959 45863 30105 47820
35618 17727 17891 45487 30160 44954
0.1 -0.6 1.3 1.4 0.0 2.1
-1.0 -1.8 0.1 0.6 2.8 -0.4
0.3 -0.3 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.0
0.4 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.9
9017 67695 23400 25960 774 10380 0
6905 68410 27098 29456 447 10439 0
5775 72242 30880 33096 237 10478 0
5148 71510 33744 36337 182 10594 0
4346 68725 34726 36269 1282 11118 3
4063 66564 34674 39910 1797 11671 6
4036 64077 33867 42456 2408 12786 8
3994 60695 31651 44853 3389 14036 8
3430 56898 30867 46928 4021 14068 7
-4.4 0.7 2.8 2.5 -11.1 0.1
-2.8 -0.5 1.2 0.9 18.4 0.6
-0.7 -0.7 -0.3 1.6 6.5 1.4 8.3
-1.6 -1.2 -0.9 1.0 5.3 1.0 -0.5
16831
17055
19499
21403
25357
28789
30637
1.5
2.7
1.9
553.9
511.0 130.4 356.6 36.6 13.5 54.8 66.5 45.0 140.1 25.2 129.3
501.9 132.2 353.4 41.9 12.8 53.8 64.0 42.9 138.0 25.3 123.2
476.9 120.3 331.7 30.7 12.0 52.3 60.2 40.9 135.7 25.4 119.7
453.4 110.2 307.6 23.1 11.2 48.1 56.9 38.3 130.0 25.6 120.3
431.2 101.4 285.5 17.7 10.2 46.5 53.7 36.7 120.6 25.5 120.2
0.0
-0.8
372.9 39.7 19.1 69.7 61.7 32.2 150.6 26.7 154.3
541.3 158.7 379.9 47.4 16.1 60.7 65.2 44.7 145.8 26.7 134.7
0.6 -0.1 1.3 -1.2 1.1 -2.0 2.1 -1.9 -0.9
-0.4 -0.8 -3.4 -2.4 0.8 3.4 -0.7 -0.6 -1.8
-0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -1.7 -1.2 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.3 0.1 -0.8
-1.0 -1.7 -1.5 -5.3 -1.6 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 0.0 0.0
99.8
97.6
92.1
90.5
86.0
81.7
77.7
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
554.8
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
352.9 40.1 16.8 78.7 55.4 39.4 122.5 32.4 169.5
344.8 27.6 18.7 75.7 52.4 41.0 129.5 28.5
Source: PRIMES
84
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
France: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
56.577 1302.7 174.8 1.55 52.4
57.753 1384.7 174.4 1.43 47.9
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
58.850 1589.7 163.4 1.44 51.1
60.825 1726.1 160.5 1.37 51.6
62.583 1759.1 153.7 1.32 50.6
64.203 1945.7 140.7 1.29 49.4
65.607 2144.4 128.4 1.21 46.8
66.846 2342.0 116.3 1.13 44.7
67.982 2550.1 106.4 1.05 43.1
144.7 9.1
160.1 9.3
165.4 9.4
186.8 9.6
221.2 10.3
243.6 10.4
249.5 9.8
0.4 2.0 -0.7 -0.8
0.6 1.0 -0.6 -0.8
0.5 2.0 -1.8 -0.9
0.4 1.7 -1.9 -1.3
1.3
3.0
1.2
128.3 103.2 124.1 40.1 51.9
120.9 99.3 128.9 40.6 47.3
100.0 100.0 100.0 45.2 38.9
86.6 94.4 120.2 42.7 39.0
85.1 94.9 117.8 40.9 38.9
79.8 87.5 109.5 37.1 38.6
74.0 80.8 100.8 34.8 37.9
68.8 75.0 92.3 31.2 37.4
64.8 69.1 84.8 26.7 35.9
-2.5 -0.3 -2.1 1.2 -2.9
-1.6 -0.5 1.7 -1.0 0.0
-1.4 -1.6 -1.5 -1.6 -0.3
-1.3 -1.6 -1.7 -2.6 -0.5
0.09 2.16 2.16 1.50 1.82 2.91
0.06 2.09 2.04 1.41 1.70 2.92
0.07 2.06 1.89 1.45 1.49 2.92
0.08 2.01 1.78 1.44 1.58 2.92
0.06 1.96 1.64 1.47 1.58 2.84
0.07 1.88 1.59 1.40 1.45 2.79
0.05 1.81 1.52 1.31 1.36 2.76
0.03 1.72 1.38 1.24 1.27 2.72
0.02 1.65 1.31 1.18 1.22 2.68
-2.4 -0.5 -1.3 -0.3 -2.0 0.0
-1.8 -0.5 -1.4 0.2 0.6 -0.3
-3.1 -0.8 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 -0.3
-6.1 -0.9 -1.5 -1.0 -1.1 -0.3
10.7 1.1
10.4 1.3
12.1 4.4
13.0 6.2
15.3 7.8
17.4 9.1
18.8 10.2
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
535963 415087 27802 5664 16069 3561 67698 77 5 0
571367 451448 28623 7913 25269 4865 52277 963 10 0
567236 444587 21926 850 24120 6274 56979 11361 666 473
604841 455783 24563 1065 34126 9245 57217 19859 2509 476
637952 472075 13377 502 32224 11855 57354 44865 4934 765
657224 482429 6102 2414 24421 10287 59645 62877 7668 1380
678309 484259 7601 1914 24074 11369 60485 73275 11173 4159
0.6 0.7 -2.3 -17.3 4.1 5.8 -1.7 64.8 63.1
1.2 0.6 -4.8 -5.1 2.9 6.6 0.1 14.7 22.2 4.9
0.6 0.3 -5.5 14.3 -2.9 -0.4 0.5 5.0 8.5 18.5
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
107892 60309 20632 20568 57 7 0 26951 4599 0 9942 4574 11028 1407 0 0
111422 63242 21290 20551 723 16 0 26891 5371 0 8576 5523 11219 1572 0 0
117671 63242 27667 20652 6022 753 240 26762 4275 0 7177 6789 10920 1874 0 2
129416 64757 33188 20706 10125 2117 240 31471 6268 0 5963 12678 10560 2269 0 2
139245 66272 44153 20770 18836 4157 390 28820 5455 0 3936 13749 8425 2709 0 2
148669 60068 53457 21092 25064 6591 709 35143 5974 0 2714 21679 7997 2752 0 2
160344 60313 60891 21322 28794 9715 1060 39140 6340 739 1754 26640 7669 2835 0 242
0.9 0.5 3.0 0.0 59.4 59.7 -0.1 -0.7
1.7 0.5 4.8 0.1 12.1 18.6 5.0 0.7 2.5
1.4 -0.9 3.3 0.3 4.3 8.9 10.5 3.1 1.5
-3.2 4.0 -0.1 2.9
-5.8 7.3 -2.6 3.8
-7.8 6.8 -0.9 0.5
0.0
66.2
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
52.5
53.8
52.6
51.1
50.2
48.4
46.3
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
34.8 3.2 0.0 90.8 77.4 13.3
34.4 3.4 0.0 89.2 79.0 10.2
32.4 3.3 0.0 91.7 78.4 13.4
36.1 4.5 0.0 90.1 75.4 14.8
34.8 4.3 0.0 92.8 74.0 18.8
30.0 4.0 0.0 95.0 73.4 21.6
28.3 4.0 1.1 95.0 71.4 23.7
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
772.5 41.3 599.8 73.9 53.5 3.9
819.1 41.6 652.5 64.5 56.4 4.1
908.2 43.0 711.9 80.7 69.1 3.5
937.7 43.9 740.3 88.9 61.5 3.1
952.1 47.5 740.3 94.0 66.9 3.2
1024.9 51.1 789.2 103.6 77.6 3.4
1075.3 54.4 816.6 112.1 88.7 3.5
1133.1 57.9 850.2 122.3 99.0 3.7
1199.6 61.4 893.3 132.3 108.8 3.9
1.6 0.4 1.7 0.9 2.6 -1.3
0.5 1.0 0.4 1.5 -0.3 -0.7
1.2 1.4 1.0 1.8 2.9 0.8
1.1 1.2 0.9 1.7 2.1 0.9
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
213.6 153.7 52.2 7.6
233.1 178.2 48.3 6.6
270.8 204.0 57.7 9.1
254.9 205.3 40.7 8.9
268.2 216.5 42.7 9.0
295.1 239.2 46.4 9.5
313.5 253.4 50.2 10.0
334.9 270.2 54.2 10.5
358.2 288.9 58.3 10.9
2.4 2.9 1.0 1.9
-0.1 0.6 -3.0 -0.1
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.0
1.3 1.3 1.5 0.9
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
42037 440 25694 10192 1153 3839 718
44292 438 27178 10029 1222 4690 735
51586 446 32862 9441 1376 6683 778
49941 446 32693 8938 1267 6291 306
49329 480 31237 9405 1296 6596 315
49412 503 29815 10313 1367 7085 329
49252 510 28537 10773 1376 7717 340
47820 512 26542 11407 1392 7613 353
44954 511 23851 11841 1330 7053 369
2.1 0.1 2.5 -0.8 1.8 5.7 0.8
-0.4 0.7 -0.5 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 -8.7
0.0 0.6 -0.9 1.4 0.6 1.6 0.8
-0.9 0.0 -1.8 0.9 -0.3 -0.9 0.8
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
85
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Germany: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
186681 125125 4031 13532 37674 6320 1498 4797 6 11 7
141981 78834 3308 15099 37322 7417 1873 5348 147 41 9
133331 59599 3525 15800 43750 10656 1869 7877 804 96 10
136015 56488 5746 14224 42061 17496 1684 12980 2341 353 138
119159 45650 3120 12200 33909 24281 1811 16558 4199 1300 413
108500 38386 2630 11000 26429 30055 1883 18531 7008 2063 570
86547 30732 2200 10000 8919 34696 1922 20363 8859 2510 1042
82414 34881 0 8000 0 39533 1986 21168 11654 2881 1845
85808 34582 0 6500 0 44726 2052 21581 15110 3172 2811
-3.3 -7.1 -1.3 1.6 1.5 5.4 2.2 5.1 62.9 24.3 3.4
-1.1 -2.6 -1.2 -2.6 -2.5 8.6 -0.3 7.7 18.0 29.8 45.5
-3.1 -3.9 -3.4 -2.0 -12.5 3.6 0.6 2.1 7.8 6.8 9.7
2.6 0.7 0.6 5.5 2.4 10.4
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
166524 3182 121527 89820 31707 41747 68
196270 10963 131988 102213 29775 52904 415
205682 21603 126951 102638 24312 56865 263
215281 26805 123134 113980 9154 65734 -393
210889 26101 112353 110081 2272 73591 -1439
212034 29934 108652 108466 186 73066 22
221907 40529 103551 106175 -2624 76292 1098
211289 37309 97284 100992 -3709 74807 1403
194553 31597 89189 93855 -4666 71739 1475
2.1 21.1 0.4 1.3 -2.6 3.1 14.5
0.3 1.9 -1.2 0.7 -21.1 2.6
0.5 4.5 -0.8 -0.4
-1.3 -2.5 -1.5 -1.2
0.4
-0.6 3.0
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
356271 131521 125712 54976 37674 68 6320
339454 92175 134828 67298 37322 415 7417
341166 83725 130919 71853 43750 263 10656
347147 82803 124323 80856 42061 -393 17496
327478 71751 112903 85791 33909 -1439 24564
317875 68321 108623 84066 26429 22 30414
305805 71261 103103 86292 8919 1098 35133
291078 72190 94658 82807 0 1403 40020
277747 66179 86574 78239 0 1475 45280
-0.4 -4.4 0.4 2.7 1.5 14.5 5.4
-0.4 -1.5 -1.5 1.8 -2.5
-0.7 -0.1 -0.9 0.1 -12.5
-1.0 -0.7 -1.7 -1.0
8.7
3.6
3.0 2.6
36.9 35.3 15.4 10.6 1.8
27.2 39.7 19.8 11.0 2.2
24.5 38.4 21.1 12.8 3.1
23.9 35.8 23.3 12.1 5.0
21.9 34.5 26.2 10.4 7.5
21.5 34.2 26.4 8.3 9.6
23.3 33.7 28.2 2.9 11.5
24.8 32.5 28.4 0.0 13.7
23.8 31.2 28.2 0.0 16.3
547549 66295
533711 62666
567219 74161
613054 73028
631996 70290
634715 68151
640072 69729
661848 86457
680251 98584
0.4 1.1
1.1 -0.5
0.1 -0.1
0.6 3.5
92914 75541 2873 12676 1824 0 0
85884 69147 2090 11982 2665 0 0
85258 68066 1113 12906 3174 0 0
92517 66172 2051 19356 4938 0 0
90560 59768 858 23181 6576 179 0
87715 57030 1467 22052 6942 223 0
96523 59276 2756 26110 7767 614 0
98438 60216 2353 26055 8501 1314 0
92363 54604 1760 24320 9392 2287 0
-0.9 -1.0 -9.0 0.2 5.7
0.6 -1.3 -2.6 6.0 7.6
0.6 -0.1 12.4 1.2 1.7 13.1
-0.4 -0.8 -4.4 -0.7 1.9 14.1
165992 108022 0 6392 51578
141292 117793 31 3638 19831
137838 120748 222 1437 15431
145413 127966 1948 868 14632
135869 120595 3596 1528 10150
133239 118246 4289 1365 9339
131299 115067 4606 1491 10135
121853 107095 4614 498 9647
113759 99301 4502 869 9087
-1.8 1.1 -13.9 -11.4
-0.1 0.0 32.1 0.6 -4.1
-0.3 -0.5 2.5 -0.2 0.0
-1.4 -1.5 -0.2 -5.3 -1.1
Energy Branch Consumption
15451
14982
14383
15267
14136
13435
13005
13634
13797
-0.7
-0.2
-0.8
0.6
Non-Energy Uses
23473
23323
25457
24974
24221
24136
23962
23079
22194
0.8
-0.5
-0.1
-0.8
227197
222795
218098
218369
217767
218762
215959
207827
199255
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.8
71457 48775 22682 58417 38691 58631
62001 42867 19134 63145 34569 63080
57896 39110 18787 62142 31872 66188
55666 37592 18074 67731 32823 62149
52776 34484 18291 69448 32799 62745
53258 34378 18879 68995 32602 63908
54259 34841 19418 66344 31857 63500
53533 33765 19769 63530 30861 59903
52843 33041 19802 61267 29593 55551
-2.1 -2.2 -1.9 0.6 -1.9 1.2
-0.9 -1.3 -0.3 1.1 0.3 -0.5
0.3 0.1 0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.1
-0.3 -0.5 0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -1.3
37141 96799 42724 38391 9150 2991 0
14915 104905 52595 38912 8737 2731 0
10949 98462 56064 41496 6323 4804 0
9829 88706 59821 44497 7428 8088 0
7225 81498 60744 45468 11986 10841 5
6849 78302 59161 47383 14037 13023 8
7065 73577 56562 48796 15809 14141 10
7165 67275 54166 49585 15211 14416 10
6955 61418 50823 50259 15533 14257 9
-11.5 0.2 2.8 0.8 -3.6 4.9
-4.1 -1.9 0.8 0.9 6.6 8.5
-0.2 -1.0 -0.7 0.7 2.8 2.7 7.7
-0.2 -1.8 -1.1 0.3 -0.2 0.1 -1.1
8852
14393
22559
28609
32669
37004
41312
9.8
3.8
2.4
1025.5
923.0 476.4 748.2 305.1 24.3 77.1 120.1 49.6 171.9 67.9 107.0
889.1 460.3 718.6 292.7 22.1 70.9 113.0 46.4 173.4 68.2 102.3
885.2 481.7 714.9 309.4 20.7 69.2 101.8 42.6 171.3 72.4 97.9
801.9 422.7 633.2 253.7 19.0 67.4 92.7 39.9 160.6 72.7 96.0
681.5 330.8 518.2 166.9 17.4 63.5 85.8 37.0 147.7 72.0 91.3
-1.6
-1.0
817.9 315.8 26.6 113.0 117.8 53.2 191.5 82.8 124.8
997.3 544.6 803.4 325.0 28.3 101.0 122.2 52.0 174.8 77.7 116.2
-1.4 -1.7 0.3 -3.7 -0.8 -4.2 1.2 -0.2 -3.8
-0.9 -0.3 -0.9 -3.8 0.2 -0.7 -1.1 -2.0 -1.5
-0.4 0.1 -0.5 0.1 -1.6 -1.1 -1.6 -1.5 0.0 0.7 -0.9
-2.6 -3.7 -3.2 -6.0 -1.7 -0.9 -1.7 -1.4 -1.5 -0.1 -0.7
84.7
82.4
76.3
73.5
73.1
66.3
56.3
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
-0.1 1.2 -4.2
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
1210.3 943.1 373.3 25.9 165.4 127.3 81.9 169.4 84.2 183.0 100.0
858.6 328.6 27.2 129.6 126.8 63.9 182.4 80.6
Source: PRIMES
86
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Germany: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
79.113 1830.3 194.7 2.65 46.4
81.539 1971.3 172.2 2.53 57.5
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
82.163 2177.2 156.7 2.40 59.9
82.501 2243.2 154.8 2.31 61.6
82.145 2281.5 143.5 2.28 63.9
81.858 2510.7 126.6 2.26 66.2
81.472 2723.6 112.3 2.34 71.9
80.907 2867.1 101.5 2.18 71.9
80.152 3008.8 92.3 1.87 69.4
200.9 9.2
240.5 10.7
253.8 11.1
284.6 11.3
329.6 12.1
352.1 12.3
352.4 11.7
0.4 1.8 -2.1 -1.0
0.0 0.5 -0.9 -0.5
-0.1 1.8 -2.4 0.2
-0.2 1.0 -1.9 -2.2
2.4
2.6
0.7
132.8 113.2 156.4 49.7 43.7
118.3 111.0 123.5 45.4 43.4
100.0 100.0 100.0 45.0 42.5
89.5 107.4 98.2 40.5 37.7
83.5 110.1 95.3 39.2 37.8
78.1 99.4 86.2 35.9 37.2
73.1 88.8 77.7 34.1 35.5
68.9 81.0 71.2 31.0 33.6
65.4 74.3 64.9 27.8 31.4
-2.8 -1.2 -4.4 -1.0 -0.3
-1.8 1.0 -0.5 -1.4 -1.2
-1.3 -2.1 -2.0 -1.4 -0.6
-1.1 -1.8 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2
0.56 2.39 2.31 2.18 2.12 2.89
0.51 2.26 2.09 2.01 1.85 2.89
0.48 2.18 1.95 1.90 1.67 2.89
0.45 2.06 1.81 1.80 1.58 2.81
0.38 1.92 1.46 1.73 1.51 2.74
0.35 1.85 1.33 1.64 1.42 2.71
0.36 1.78 1.28 1.53 1.34 2.70
0.29 1.73 1.26 1.46 1.29 2.68
0.19 1.68 1.20 1.40 1.25 2.66
-1.4 -0.9 -1.7 -1.4 -2.4 0.0
-2.3 -1.2 -2.9 -0.9 -1.0 -0.5
-0.5 -0.8 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -0.2
-6.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 -0.1
3.9 0.6
6.4 3.9
10.0 7.1
12.6 8.6
14.6 9.6
17.1 10.5
19.8 11.5
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
567219 169575 292440 4733 59321 10011 21728 9350 60 0
613054 163026 285286 8811 91860 15988 19577 27224 1282 0
631996 131452 259860 4426 131597 26427 21054 48827 8146 208
634715 102456 249528 6957 127026 31269 21893 81492 13833 260
640072 34576 262322 12229 150531 36112 22349 103009 18230 714
661848 0 277036 10458 152782 39497 23094 135507 21945 1528
680251 0 263528 7705 138442 43093 23856 175702 25266 2659
1.1 -2.5 -1.2 -0.7 8.3 10.2 -0.3 18.0 63.4
0.1 -12.5 0.1 10.7 1.4 3.2 0.6 7.8 8.4 13.1
0.6
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
112510 21301 10477 4268 6095 114 0 80731 13526 0 51482 20674 6659 1916 0 0
121873 20680 24021 4081 18433 1508 0 77172 16773 0 48960 19428 6354 2430 0 0
143633 15521 40427 4246 27723 8458 0 87685 21790 0 48589 28704 5356 5006 0 30
165802 12031 58576 4310 39906 14360 0 95195 23145 0 49004 36205 4176 5781 0 30
173108 4049 68805 4427 45459 18919 0 100254 24610 646 45725 39248 8758 6442 0 81
185047 0 83006 4616 55616 22774 0 102041 26269 7147 41647 44379 9179 6662 0 174
196941 0 98953 4694 68039 26220 0 97988 26842 14829 42696 40506 7715 6769 0 304
2.5 -3.1 14.5 -0.1 16.4 53.8
1.9 -12.6 5.5 0.4 5.1 8.4
1.3
0.8 4.9
1.3 1.2
-0.6 3.3 -2.2 10.1
-0.6 3.2 5.0 2.6
-0.2 0.9 36.8 -0.7 0.3 -1.3 0.5
10.6
14.1
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
53.7
53.6
47.2
41.4
40.0
37.8
36.0
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
37.0 11.7 0.0 37.2 29.9 7.3
37.4 13.9 0.0 37.0 26.6 10.5
40.1 20.2 0.0 37.4 20.8 16.6
40.7 23.5 0.0 39.6 16.1 23.4
41.2 24.0 1.1 33.6 5.4 28.2
42.0 25.3 11.7 33.5 0.0 33.5
42.4 25.0 22.5 39.8 0.0 39.8
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
0.0 -4.5 -0.8 1.8 0.7 5.5 3.3 14.1
3.7 0.6 4.1 3.3
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
888.1 73.1 698.4 76.1 37.4 3.1
1033.4 68.5 830.5 85.4 46.3 2.7
1065.5 69.0 849.6 90.0 54.7 2.2
1098.9 67.1 875.7 92.3 61.7 2.0
1112.3 68.5 881.4 93.4 66.9 2.1
1209.7 73.4 951.5 101.6 81.0 2.2
1268.3 77.1 984.8 109.3 94.9 2.3
1300.7 79.1 996.0 114.2 109.0 2.4
1335.5 80.8 1011.8 118.9 121.6 2.4
1.8 -0.6 2.0 1.7 3.9 -3.1
0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.4 2.0 -0.7
1.3 1.2 1.1 1.6 3.6 1.0
0.5 0.5 0.3 0.8 2.5 0.4
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
331.7 175.2 101.7 54.8
372.3 237.8 70.5 64.0
429.8 280.7 82.7 66.5
469.6 310.1 95.4 64.1
507.7 338.9 103.6 65.2
551.4 367.1 113.3 71.0
571.1 376.2 120.1 74.9
580.2 380.1 123.1 77.0
587.7 383.9 125.1 78.7
2.6 4.8 -2.0 1.9
1.7 1.9 2.3 -0.2
1.2 1.0 1.5 1.4
0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
58631 779 37559 12208 2118 5307 660
63080 721 39747 13949 2131 5975 558
66188 716 39405 16490 1950 7345 281
62149 682 35052 15960 1830 8304 321
62745 690 33748 17381 1886 8712 327
63908 717 32480 18590 1962 9808 352
63500 715 31129 18344 1931 11014 367
59903 694 28285 17657 1854 11038 374
55551 666 24943 16814 1631 11117 380
1.2 -0.8 0.5 3.1 -0.8 3.3 -8.2
-0.5 -0.4 -1.5 0.5 -0.3 1.7 1.5
0.1 0.4 -0.8 0.5 0.2 2.4 1.2
-1.3 -0.7 -2.2 -0.9 -1.7 0.1 0.3
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
87
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Greece: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
9155 7077 835 138 0 1105 152 893 0 56 3
9741 7911 460 44 0 1326 303 935 3 82 3
10011 8222 281 42 0 1466 318 1010 39 99 2
10316 8538 101 18 0 1659 431 1015 109 102 1
9798 7948 82 24 0 1744 344 998 263 138 1
10189 8002 60 0 0 2127 353 1083 433 255 1
10636 7965 40 0 0 2632 364 1093 742 367 66
11201 7962 0 0 0 3239 376 1140 1092 443 188
11724 7968 0 0 0 3757 384 1197 1320 487 369
0.9 1.5 -10.3 -11.2
-0.2 -0.3 -11.6 -5.5
0.8 0.0 -6.9
1.0 0.0
2.9 7.6 1.2 74.7 5.8 -4.7
1.8 0.8 -0.1 21.1 3.4 -4.1
4.2 0.6 0.9 10.9 10.3 51.1
3.6 0.5 0.9 5.9 2.9 18.9
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
15473 988 14424 14802 -378 0 61
18268 925 17275 16997 277 0 69
22065 768 19610 20508 -898 1689 -1
23448 371 20419 19443 977 2332 325
23677 204 19759 20099 -340 3238 401
25280 213 20070 20398 -329 4328 436
25969 238 19832 20192 -360 5054 404
26596 254 19527 19930 -403 5970 390
26879 267 19140 19594 -453 6621 385
3.6 -2.5 3.1 3.3
0.7 -12.4 0.1 -0.2
0.9 1.6 0.0 0.0
0.3 1.2 -0.4 -0.3
6.7
4.6 0.1
2.7 -0.5
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
22338 8091 12942 138 0 61 1105
24228 8783 14006 44 0 69 1326
28217 9040 16007 1705 0 -1 1466
31352 8952 18063 2354 0 325 1659
30864 8152 17230 3262 0 401 1819
32739 8215 17399 4328 0 436 2360
33774 8202 17040 5054 0 404 3073
34847 8216 16577 5970 0 390 3693
35543 8235 16080 6621 0 385 4222
2.4 1.1 2.1 28.6
0.9 -1.0 0.7 6.7
0.9 0.1 -0.1 4.5
0.5 0.0 -0.6 2.7
2.9
2.2
0.1 5.4
-0.5 3.2
36.2 57.9 0.6 0.0 4.9
36.3 57.8 0.2 0.0 5.5
32.0 56.7 6.0 0.0 5.2
28.6 57.6 7.5 0.0 5.3
26.4 55.8 10.6 0.0 5.9
25.1 53.1 13.2 0.0 7.2
24.3 50.5 15.0 0.0 9.1
23.6 47.6 17.1 0.0 10.6
23.2 45.2 18.6 0.0 11.9
34767 5818
41291 6451
53415 8430
59416 10124
61339 10133
69330 11194
76011 11891
82010 12763
87041 13342
4.4 3.8
1.4 1.9
2.2 1.6
1.4 1.2
8619 6890 1711 18 0 0 0
9938 7810 2076 14 38 0 0
11693 8234 2114 1280 64 0 0
12405 8693 2055 1605 52 0 0
11542 7894 1556 2058 34 0 0
12506 7956 1380 2887 283 0 0
12927 7937 1026 3457 443 64 0
13677 7939 771 4249 530 187 0
14270 7951 553 4809 589 368 0
3.1 1.8 2.1 53.1
-0.1 -0.4 -3.0 4.9 -6.0
1.1 0.1 -4.1 5.3 29.1
1.0 0.0 -6.0 3.4 2.9 19.0
16747 16670 0 0 77
17954 17901 0 0 52
22504 22473 0 0 30
21602 21510 0 0 93
20643 20496 144 0 3
21046 20801 243 0 3
20932 20599 330 0 3
20716 20320 394 0 2
20416 19987 426 0 2
3.0 3.0
-0.9 -0.9
0.1 0.1 8.6
-0.2 -0.3 2.6
-8.8
-21.0
-1.4
-1.1
1194
1172
1558
1755
1725
1763
1786
1788
1769
2.7
1.0
0.3
-0.1
672
456
719
761
771
831
902
941
970
0.7
0.7
1.6
0.7
14541
15838
18560
20800
21201
22492
23264
23678
23908
2.5
1.3
0.9
0.3
3945 2535 1410 3057 1718 5821
4114 2493 1621 3332 1947 6445
4445 2727 1718 4486 2417 7212
4143 2573 1570 5489 3083 8085
4035 2397 1638 5703 3163 8300
4194 2498 1696 6204 3475 8619
4421 2638 1782 6443 3635 8765
4500 2687 1813 6536 3777 8865
4594 2740 1854 6583 3895 8836
1.2 0.7 2.0 3.9 3.5 2.2
-1.0 -1.3 -0.5 2.4 2.7 1.4
0.9 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.4 0.5
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.1
1053 10073 15 2448 0 952 0
1074 10837 14 2931 0 982 0
888 12631 257 3710 28 1046 0
446 14278 585 4377 49 1066 0
257 14248 674 4645 207 1169 1
258 14633 790 5273 328 1209 1
265 14617 876 5751 450 1304 1
276 14499 900 6175 521 1304 1
284 14245 964 6553 537 1324 1
-1.7 2.3 33.0 4.2 0.9
-11.7 1.2 10.1 2.3 22.1 1.1
0.3 0.3 2.7 2.2 8.1 1.1 9.0
0.7 -0.3 1.0 1.3 1.8 0.2 -0.1
2.8
4.4
2.6
1.7
-0.3
2.3 2.6 2.3 0.6 4.9 0.1 2.1 1.2 0.1
0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -3.3 3.2 1.6 1.2 0.1 -2.3
0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.7 -0.8 0.4 1.8 0.0
0.2 0.5 0.1 0.4 -0.8 0.0 -0.4 -0.9 0.0 1.2 0.1
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
101.4
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
71.1 34.1 2.4 9.3 4.6 3.4 17.2 7.2 23.1
78.0 39.0 2.2 9.8 4.8 3.2 19.1 7.7
1370
1507
1809
2204
2778
3226
3588
120.5 88.9 43.9 3.1 9.9 7.5 3.4 21.3 8.1 23.5
127.5 67.9 95.8 46.3 3.5 8.2 9.7 4.2 23.9 8.3 23.5
117.5 61.9 90.7 42.4 2.9 7.1 10.2 4.0 24.0 8.2 18.7
121.1 64.7 93.7 44.1 2.9 7.3 11.0 3.8 24.7 8.9 18.5
122.5 66.4 94.1 44.2 2.9 7.4 11.0 3.6 24.9 9.8 18.7
123.9 68.4 94.7 45.3 2.8 7.3 10.8 3.5 25.0 10.4 18.7
124.6 70.1 94.7 45.9 2.7 7.4 10.5 3.3 24.9 11.0 18.8
118.9
125.8
115.9
119.4
120.8
122.2
122.8
Source: PRIMES
88
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Greece: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
10.121 127.6 175.0 3.18 62.2
10.595 135.8 178.4 3.22 65.8
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
10.904 160.9 175.4 3.15 69.4
11.083 197.6 158.6 3.05 68.6
11.307 219.4 140.7 2.94 70.7
11.476 251.9 130.0 2.86 71.3
11.556 290.6 116.2 2.78 70.9
11.575 323.2 107.8 2.72 70.4
11.573 351.6 101.1 2.67 69.6
17.2 10.7
21.1 10.7
22.8 10.4
26.9 10.7
33.2 11.4
37.7 11.7
39.8 11.3
0.7 2.3 0.0 -0.1
0.4 3.2 -2.2 -0.7
0.2 2.9 -1.9 -0.5
0.0 1.9 -1.4 -0.4
2.8
3.8
1.8
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
84.1 79.7 99.0 41.7 79.8
92.5 79.3 104.6 39.9 79.3
100.0 100.0 100.0 36.3 66.6
74.3 99.6 102.6 35.0 63.2
67.9 95.7 95.5 34.3 61.1
62.8 90.4 90.5 31.9 60.8
58.2 82.3 81.7 30.0 58.6
54.7 75.8 75.9 28.5 56.2
52.1 70.5 71.7 26.8 53.6
1.7 2.3 0.1 -1.4 -1.8
-3.8 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9
-1.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -0.4
-1.1 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9
Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
0.98 2.38 2.36 1.51 1.96 2.96
0.94 2.32 2.37 1.43 1.65 2.96
0.82 2.26 2.22 1.66 1.40 2.95
0.77 2.21 1.98 1.77 1.37 2.95
0.65 2.14 1.75 1.79 1.25 2.90
0.59 2.08 1.73 1.77 1.08 2.87
0.53 2.02 1.67 1.70 1.00 2.84
0.50 1.97 1.63 1.66 0.92 2.82
0.48 1.93 1.61 1.60 0.85 2.82
-1.8 -0.5 -0.6 0.9 -3.3 0.0
-2.3 -0.6 -2.4 0.8 -1.1 -0.2
-1.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -2.2 -0.2
-1.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -1.6 -0.1
7.2 0.0
7.0 0.0
8.2 2.2
9.4 3.6
11.5 4.9
13.2 5.9
14.6 6.6
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
53415 0 33585 9354 6149 183 3692 451 0 0
59416 0 35610 9188 8154 182 5016 1266 1 0
61339 0 33567 8142 12325 151 3999 3062 94 0
69330 0 33731 6792 17512 1205 4110 5039 941 0
76011 0 33431 5230 20732 1887 4238 8623 1795 75
82010 0 34219 3443 22393 2313 4374 12692 2358 217
87041 0 34311 2479 24727 2546 4464 15349 2738 427
1.4
2.2
1.4
0.0 -1.4 7.2 -1.9 0.8 21.1
0.0 -4.3 5.3 28.7 0.6 10.9 34.2
0.3 -7.2 1.8 3.0 0.5 5.9 4.3 19.0
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
10288 0 2585 2359 226 0 0 7703 200 0 4507 1114 2054 28 0 0
11926 0 2887 2395 491 1 0 9039 361 0 4799 1899 2282 59 0 0
14954 0 3820 2395 1348 76 0 11135 581 0 4799 3629 2622 85 0 0
18393 0 5458 2547 2230 682 0 12935 741 0 4241 6209 2401 85 0 0
21152 0 7540 2692 3678 1170 0 13613 938 0 4375 7070 2006 152 0 9
25889 0 9619 2776 5306 1537 0 16270 1014 0 4434 9878 1712 220 0 25
28489 0 11085 2811 6489 1785 0 17404 1035 0 4434 10920 1712 289 0 49
3.8
3.5
3.0
4.0 0.2 19.6
7.0 1.2 10.6 31.4
3.9 0.4 5.8 4.3
3.8 11.3
2.0 4.9
2.5 1.0
0.6 12.5 2.5 11.8
-0.9 6.9 -2.6 6.1
0.1 4.4 -1.6 6.6
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
54.9
52.8
43.9
40.5
38.8
34.2
33.1
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
36.2 1.6 0.0 8.1 0.0 8.1
36.8 1.9 0.0 10.9 0.0 10.9
40.4 5.0 0.0 11.9 0.0 11.9
40.7 5.7 0.0 16.3 0.0 16.3
40.8 6.3 0.0 21.9 0.0 21.9
39.4 6.4 0.0 26.8 0.0 26.8
38.9 6.2 0.0 29.3 0.0 29.3
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
19.0
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
85.8 17.7 37.5 2.8 22.1 5.7
99.2 20.2 47.5 2.3 22.8 6.3
128.7 21.7 66.7 3.1 29.9 7.3
152.9 21.7 89.7 3.4 31.1 7.1
170.2 22.2 102.7 3.7 34.1 7.4
185.7 22.7 109.0 4.1 42.2 7.7
198.3 23.2 111.8 4.5 50.9 8.0
207.7 23.3 111.0 4.8 60.4 8.2
217.8 23.5 111.2 5.0 69.9 8.3
4.1 2.0 5.9 0.9 3.1 2.6
2.8 0.2 4.4 2.0 1.3 0.1
1.5 0.4 0.9 2.0 4.1 0.7
0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.9 3.2 0.4
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
28.0 20.8 0.6 6.6
31.4 24.0 0.3 7.1
38.1 29.0 0.4 8.7
43.2 32.5 0.6 10.1
40.3 28.7 0.9 10.7
44.2 31.6 1.0 11.6
48.1 34.3 1.1 12.7
52.3 37.4 1.2 13.7
56.1 40.3 1.2 14.6
3.1 3.4 -3.5 2.8
0.6 -0.1 7.4 2.1
1.8 1.8 2.3 1.7
1.6 1.6 1.1 1.4
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
5821 190 1657 2066 75 1264 568
6445 214 2092 2309 57 1226 546
7212 225 2729 2380 60 1325 493
8085 220 3464 2517 58 1181 645
8300 222 3816 2223 76 1284 678
8619 222 3656 2426 85 1522 710
8765 215 3493 2535 88 1692 742
8865 206 3309 2642 88 1854 766
8836 196 3051 2704 82 2018 784
2.2 1.7 5.1 1.4 -2.2 0.5 -1.4
1.4 -0.1 3.4 -0.7 2.4 -0.3 3.2
0.5 -0.3 -0.9 1.3 1.4 2.8 0.9
0.1 -1.0 -1.3 0.6 -0.6 1.8 0.6
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
89
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Hungary: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
14157 3948 2330 3812 3544 523 15 422 0 0 86
13466 3095 2339 3788 3618 626 14 526 0 0 86
11215 2893 1673 2475 3658 516 15 415 0 0 86
10644 1748 1780 2331 3569 1217 17 1110 1 2 87
10561 1720 1200 2200 3787 1654 13 1552 15 10 65
10984 1519 1000 2000 4465 2000 21 1853 25 22 79
11469 1527 1000 1900 4497 2545 90 2150 42 86 178
12312 1281 900 1775 5051 3305 198 2544 54 118 392
12891 1524 800 1700 5051 3816 202 2689 64 158 703
-2.3 -3.1 -3.3 -4.2 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.2
-0.6 -5.1 -3.3 -1.2 0.3 12.4 -1.9 14.1
0.0
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
14465 1686 6651 6505 145 5170 958
12652 1395 5519 5962 -444 5532 207
14026 1081 5366 5893 -527 7283 296
17519 1303 5872 6334 -462 9807 535
17741 1320 6514 6615 -101 9488 396
19013 1332 7407 7477 -70 9888 356
19025 1309 7536 7600 -64 9856 283
18434 1311 7616 7683 -68 9207 248
18082 1294 7531 7630 -100 8979 218
-0.3 -4.3 -2.1 -1.0
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
28681 5969 8774 8913 3544 958 523
25896 4549 7721 9175 3618 207 626
25016 3967 6923 9657 3658 296 516
28006 3054 7537 12094 3569 535 1217
28302 3041 7714 11688 3787 396 1677
29997 2851 8407 11888 4465 356 2030
30495 2836 8536 11756 4497 283 2587
30746 2592 8516 10982 5051 248 3357
30972 2817 8331 10679 5051 218 3876
20.8 30.6 31.1 12.4 1.8
17.6 29.8 35.4 14.0 2.4
15.9 27.7 38.6 14.6 2.1
10.9 26.9 43.2 12.7 4.3
10.7 27.3 41.3 13.4 5.9
9.5 28.0 39.6 14.9 6.8
9.3 28.0 38.6 14.7 8.5
8.4 27.7 35.7 16.4 10.9
9.1 26.9 34.5 16.3 12.5
28431 6572
34011 7502
35185 7991
35749 6769
37726 6107
41603 6355
45552 6790
49348 7310
4970 2871 440 1636 24 0 0
6113 2977 1447 1634 55 0 0
6107 2853 1052 2140 62 0 0
5659 1924 122 3078 534 0 0
5276 1983 55 2470 768 0 0
5387 1753 49 2632 938 15 0
5985 1768 63 2868 1180 105 0
11720 8870 0 1146 1704
10716 8536 0 789 1392
9261 7622 0 471 1168
10031 8584 5 629 813
10487 8843 163 710 770
11315 9566 232 703 814
Energy Branch Consumption
1459
1390
1243
1657
1692
Non-Energy Uses
1584
1631
1596
2326
2289
19184
15711
15759
18080
6525 4160 2365 6377 3251 3031
3808 2691 1117 5833 3411 2660
3461 2536 925 5276 3759 3263
2502 6029 5941 2717 1570 425 0
965 4158 6370 2385 1287 545 0
668 4186 6503 2531 1440 430 0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
-2.8
0.8 -1.2 -1.8 -1.5 1.7 4.4 21.6 3.3 10.6 24.6 10.7
1.2 0.0 -2.2 -1.1 1.2 4.1 8.4 2.3 4.3 6.3 14.7
2.4 2.0 2.0 1.2
0.7 -0.1 1.5 1.4
-0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0
3.5 -11.1
2.7 3.0
0.4 -3.3
-0.9 -2.6
-1.4 -4.0 -2.3 0.8 0.3 -11.1 -0.1
1.2 -2.6 1.1 1.9 0.3 3.0 12.5
0.7 -0.7 1.0 0.1 1.7 -3.3 4.4
0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 1.2 -2.6 4.1
52737 8329
2.2 2.0
0.7 -2.7
1.9 1.1
1.5 2.1
5977 1535 99 2471 1564 308 0
6764 1785 103 2494 1759 623 0
2.1 -0.1 9.1 2.7 10.2
-1.5 -3.6 -25.5 1.4 28.6
1.3 -1.1 1.4 1.5 4.4
1.2 0.1 4.9 -1.4 4.1 19.4
11293 9696 310 488 798
11278 9671 350 477 780
11072 9470 369 482 751
-2.3 -1.5
1.3 1.5
-8.5 -3.7
4.2 -4.1
0.7 0.9 6.7 -3.7 0.4
-0.2 -0.2 1.7 -0.1 -0.6
1791
1799
1789
1781
-1.6
3.1
0.6
-0.1
2382
2451
2458
2462
0.1
3.7
0.7
0.0
18687
19855
20211
20184
20018
-1.9
1.7
0.8
-0.1
3430 2314 1116 6381 4073 4196
3400 2249 1152 6335 4035 4916
3490 2293 1197 6582 4212 5571
3504 2281 1223 6620 4239 5848
3488 2236 1251 6508 4256 5932
3452 2182 1270 6441 4261 5863
-6.1 -4.8 -9.0 -1.9 1.5 0.7
-0.2 -1.2 2.2 1.8 0.7 4.2
0.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.8
-0.1 -0.4 0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.0
692 4812 7852 2780 1297 647 0
649 5290 7796 2840 1256 854 1
684 5923 7763 3096 1387 1001 1
695 6081 7496 3322 1478 1138 1
701 6091 7094 3565 1530 1201 1
685 5958 6772 3747 1666 1188 1
-12.4 -3.6 0.9 -0.7 -0.9 0.1
-0.3 2.4 1.8 1.2 -1.4 7.1
0.7 1.4 -0.4 1.6 1.6 2.9 10.8
-0.2 -0.2 -1.0 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0
469
798
1274
1550
1980
2476
2686
76.3 53.7 21.5 1.6 6.3 8.6 6.2 9.5 3.7 18.8
77.5 29.6 55.0 17.3 2.0 6.2 10.5 6.7 12.2 3.8 18.8
75.4 27.7 55.1 16.0 2.2 6.1 10.2 6.7 14.0 3.7 16.5
76.1 27.0 56.6 15.4 2.4 6.1 10.4 6.7 15.7 3.9 15.6
75.9 27.3 56.5 15.6 2.3 5.7 10.2 6.5 16.3 4.1 15.3
73.2 25.5 53.7 13.7 2.2 5.5 9.6 6.3 16.4 4.2 15.3
70.3 24.0 51.0 12.4 2.0 5.0 9.3 6.2 16.1 4.3 15.0
78.7
80.0
77.8
78.5
78.3
75.6
72.5
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
96.9 65.7 20.5 2.6 14.7 13.7 5.6 8.6 5.3 25.9 100.0
57.0 23.0 2.4 8.7 9.9 5.5 7.6 3.7
10.5
4.5
3.1
-2.4
-0.1
-2.0 0.5 -4.7 -8.1 -4.6 1.1 0.9 -3.5 -3.1
0.3 -2.9 3.4 -0.4 1.8 0.7 4.0 -0.1 -1.3
0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.2 1.5 1.0 -0.8
-0.8 -1.3 -1.0 -2.2 -1.1 -1.3 -0.9 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 -0.2
Source: PRIMES
90
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Hungary: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
10.375 66.0 434.3 2.29 50.4
10.337 59.1 437.9 2.20 48.9
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
10.222 72.0 347.4 2.15 56.1
10.098 88.7 315.8 1.96 62.6
10.023 87.6 323.1 1.95 62.7
9.964 101.1 296.6 1.89 63.4
9.893 114.8 265.7 1.85 62.4
9.790 127.6 241.0 1.75 60.0
9.651 141.2 219.3 1.65 58.4
13.0 18.0
14.5 16.4
16.0 18.3
19.4 19.2
23.9 20.8
26.9 21.1
28.3 20.0
-0.1 0.9 -2.2 -0.6
-0.2 2.0 -0.7 -1.0
-0.1 2.7 -1.9 -0.5
-0.2 2.1 -1.9 -1.2
2.1
4.1
1.7
248.3 123.0 81.4 25.9 26.1
156.7 126.8 103.5 25.3 32.6
100.0 100.0 100.0 24.2 45.9
79.0 89.6 86.0 24.9 59.7
81.5 93.8 86.8 25.2 63.0
75.8 81.1 76.6 25.1 63.3
69.9 71.6 67.4 25.2 60.6
64.6 63.4 60.4 24.7 57.3
60.2 55.9 54.1 23.6 53.2
-8.7 -2.1 2.1 -0.7 5.8
-2.0 -0.6 -1.4 0.4 3.2
-1.5 -2.7 -2.5 0.0 -0.4
-1.5 -2.5 -2.2 -0.7 -1.3
0.42 2.22 2.25 2.15 1.71 2.84
0.45 2.02 2.28 1.70 1.60 2.85
0.40 1.94 1.83 1.62 1.66 2.90
0.33 1.97 1.81 1.65 1.65 2.91
0.28 1.98 1.79 1.61 1.65 2.84
0.25 1.96 1.74 1.57 1.60 2.82
0.23 1.91 1.64 1.53 1.54 2.78
0.19 1.87 1.58 1.47 1.48 2.76
0.16 1.82 1.46 1.44 1.44 2.74
-0.6 -1.3 -2.1 -2.8 -0.3 0.2
-3.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2
-2.0 -0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.7 -0.2
-3.4 -0.5 -1.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2
2.9 0.0
4.3 0.2
6.6 3.7
7.6 4.6
9.5 5.9
11.9 6.7
13.0 7.3
35185 14177 9924 3901 6885 120 178 0 0 0
35749 13832 6910 505 12572 1717 203 10 0 0
37726 14681 7208 279 11958 3273 147 177 3 0
41603 17308 6320 210 13339 3849 241 289 29 18
45552 17432 6824 266 14444 4859 1043 483 77 123
49348 19816 6065 430 13021 6590 2297 623 147 358
52737 19816 8060 459 13142 7210 2345 740 241 724
0.7 0.3 -3.1 -23.2 5.7 39.2 -1.9
1.9 1.7 -0.5 -0.5 1.9 4.0 21.6 10.6 38.3
1.5 1.3 1.7 5.6 -0.9 4.0 8.4 4.3 12.1 19.4
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
7956 1804 44 44 0 0 0 6109 1125 0 1664 3599 762 84 0 0
8749 1827 64 47 17 0 0 6859 1339 0 1475 4648 309 427 0 0
9385 1854 256 47 205 4 0 7276 1710 0 1511 5021 317 427 0 0
9804 2161 422 61 330 30 0 7221 2031 0 1140 5274 285 521 0 2
9456 2174 1069 437 552 80 0 6214 2460 0 993 4374 201 632 0 14
9295 2475 1325 461 711 153 0 5495 2811 0 867 3433 249 905 0 41
9975 2475 1604 509 845 250 0 5896 3066 329 1095 3579 234 905 0 83
1.7 0.3 19.2 0.7
0.1 1.6 15.4 25.0 10.4 34.9
0.5 1.3 4.1 1.5 4.3 12.1
1.8 4.3
-1.6 3.7
-0.5 2.2
-1.0 3.4 -8.4 17.6
-4.1 -1.4 -4.5 4.0
1.0 -2.0 1.5 3.7
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
46.0
43.0
43.3
46.1
52.3
57.6
56.5
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
29.3 14.3 0.0 41.1 40.3 0.8
33.0 20.0 0.0 44.1 38.7 5.4
37.0 29.4 0.0 48.5 38.9 9.5
37.9 32.3 0.0 52.2 41.6 10.6
38.1 35.8 0.0 52.7 38.3 14.5
38.1 34.9 0.0 60.5 40.2 20.3
37.6 34.0 6.4 58.9 37.6 21.4
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
19.4
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
82.7 19.3 47.6 13.9 1.9 0.0
75.1 16.6 46.2 10.9 1.4 0.0
80.1 18.7 47.0 12.3 2.1 0.0
81.4 17.8 47.7 12.2 3.7 0.0
79.4 17.0 47.1 11.0 4.2 0.0
91.8 17.2 57.9 11.3 5.4 0.0
100.9 17.5 64.4 12.0 7.0 0.0
108.8 17.8 69.3 13.0 8.7 0.0
117.0 18.1 74.5 14.1 10.3 0.0
-0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -1.2 0.6
-0.1 -0.9 0.0 -1.1 7.3
2.4 0.2 3.2 0.9 5.2
1.5 0.4 1.5 1.6 4.0
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
34.0 15.2 16.8 2.0
23.4 13.8 8.4 1.2
28.8 19.1 8.8 0.9
36.4 25.2 9.1 2.1
46.3 34.4 9.8 2.1
51.6 39.1 10.3 2.3
54.4 41.0 11.0 2.4
56.5 42.3 11.6 2.6
58.4 43.4 12.2 2.7
-1.6 2.4 -6.3 -7.9
4.8 6.0 1.1 9.0
1.6 1.8 1.2 1.5
0.7 0.6 1.1 1.1
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
3031 123 1825 637 272 164 9
2660 141 1546 595 191 182 5
3263 156 1532 1181 176 219 1
4196 184 1583 2040 159 230 1
4916 174 1545 2782 156 258 1
5571 170 1790 3132 162 315 1
5848 165 1983 3166 158 375 1
5932 159 2073 3113 152 434 1
5863 154 2095 3006 122 487 1
0.7 2.3 -1.7 6.4 -4.3 2.9 -24.1
4.2 1.1 0.1 8.9 -1.1 1.7 5.8
1.8 -0.5 2.5 1.3 0.1 3.8 1.3
0.0 -0.7 0.6 -0.5 -2.6 2.6 0.9
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
91
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Ireland: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
3353 1312 0 1873 0 168 60 108 0 0 0
4010 1606 0 2249 0 155 61 92 1 0 0
2152 959 0 958 0 235 73 141 21 0 0
1616 789 0 461 0 367 54 216 96 0 0
1633 598 0 410 0 625 59 264 286 13 2
1846 609 0 454 0 783 61 292 388 37 5
2109 634 0 476 0 998 61 357 490 80 11
2410 643 0 493 0 1275 61 457 628 112 17
2738 594 0 500 0 1644 61 583 798 182 22
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
7093 2064 5029 2023 3006 0 0
7631 1823 5725 2269 3456 85 -1
12266 1789 7991 3008 4982 2478 8
13657 1969 8503 3305 5198 3010 176
13989 1644 8633 3147 5486 3481 156
15127 1779 9156 3308 5848 3851 163
15787 1933 9355 3356 5999 4045 172
16065 1902 9460 3371 6088 4185 162
16048 1745 9527 3374 6154 4250 153
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
10246 3416 4789 1873 0 0 168
10861 2775 5598 2334 0 -1 155
14328 2711 7938 3436 0 8 235
15123 2685 8426 3470 0 176 367
15522 2242 8534 3891 0 156 699
16865 2388 9049 4305 0 163 961
17782 2568 9241 4522 0 172 1280
18356 2544 9340 4678 0 162 1632
18661 2339 9402 4750 0 153 2016
33.3 46.7 18.3 0.0 1.6
25.6 51.5 21.5 0.0 1.4
18.9 55.4 24.0 0.0 1.6
17.8 55.7 22.9 0.0 2.4
14.4 55.0 25.1 0.0 4.5
14.2 53.7 25.5 0.0 5.7
14.4 52.0 25.4 0.0 7.2
13.9 50.9 25.5 0.0 8.9
12.5 50.4 25.5 0.0 10.8
14232 2261
17622 2658
23695 3457
25008 3869
26679 3599
30342 4040
33345 4405
36268 4712
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
3019 1839 339 841 0 0 0
3711 2028 622 1060 0 0 0
4792 1925 1019 1825 24 0 0
4747 1903 775 2040 30 0 0
4168 1646 349 2127 45 0 0
4606 1851 328 2348 79 0 0
4897 2024 288 2428 157 0 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
1943 1746 0 0 197
2439 2272 0 0 167
3488 3317 0 0 171
3479 3343 1 0 135
3328 3147 93 0 87
3551 3308 171 0 72
Energy Branch Consumption
168
185
245
379
335
Non-Energy Uses
624
552
552
308
7368
7910
10681
1745 870 876 2406 1227 1989
1854 881 973 2200 1507 2349
1784 3887 568 1020 0 108 0
933 4813 796 1277 0 92 0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
-4.3 -3.1
-2.7 -4.6
2.6 0.6
2.6 -0.7
-6.5
-8.1
1.5
0.5
3.4 2.0 2.7
10.3 -2.0 6.5 29.9 52.1 48.2
4.8 0.2 3.0 5.5 20.2 16.0
5.1 0.0 5.0 5.0 8.6 7.3
5.6 -1.4 4.7 4.0 5.2
1.3 -0.8 0.8 0.5 1.0 3.5 33.9
1.2 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.0
0.2 -1.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 -1.1
3.4 -2.3 5.2 6.3
0.8 -1.9 0.7 1.3
1.4 1.4 0.8 1.5
0.5 -0.9 0.2 0.5
3.4
33.9 11.5
1.0 6.2
-1.1 4.6
38339 4804
5.2 4.3
1.2 0.4
2.3 2.0
1.4 0.9
5030 2031 253 2505 241 0 0
4831 1871 224 2464 273 0 0
4.7 0.5 11.6 8.1
-1.4 -1.6 -10.2 1.5 6.7
1.6 2.1 -1.9 1.3 13.2
-0.1 -0.8 -2.5 0.1 5.7
3667 3356 244 0 67
3712 3371 284 0 57
3735 3374 314 0 47
6.0 6.6
-0.5 -0.5
1.0 0.6 10.1
0.2 0.1 2.6
-1.4
-6.5
-2.6
-3.4
354
367
373
362
3.9
3.2
0.9
-0.1
177
208
220
230
242
-1.2
-10.8
2.2
0.9
12340
12508
13600
14347
14897
15391
3.8
1.6
1.4
0.7
2348 1174 1174 2489 1826 4018
2481 1237 1244 2895 1967 4997
2286 1025 1261 3257 1965 5000
2503 1056 1447 3480 2149 5468
2703 1085 1618 3612 2229 5803
2881 1119 1762 3722 2311 5983
3059 1152 1906 3838 2376 6118
3.0 3.0 3.0 0.3 4.1 7.3
-0.3 -1.3 0.7 2.7 0.7 2.2
1.7 0.6 2.5 1.0 1.3 1.5
1.2 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
699 6919 1201 1744 0 118 0
704 8020 1337 2094 0 184 0
583 7682 1684 2127 123 308 0
525 8199 1873 2412 160 430 1
532 8443 2008 2647 163 552 1
502 8595 2088 2863 185 662 1
458 8732 2180 3024 206 790 1
-9.0 5.9 7.8 5.5
-1.8 1.1 3.4 2.0
0.9
10.1
-0.9 0.9 1.8 2.2 2.9 6.0 9.8
-1.5 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.6 1.7
9.7
8.5
4.7
2.1
-0.4
3.1 3.9 4.0 1.5 -2.1 2.8 7.4 2.4 0.5
0.1 -1.8 5.6 -1.9 2.3 -1.3 2.0 -6.5 -0.9
0.7 1.4 1.1 1.5 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.4 -0.1
0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.2
14.9 0.0
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
56.0 30.8 10.4 0.2 4.0 7.5 2.9 5.9 2.3 22.8 100.0
32.9 12.6 0.2 3.8 6.0 3.4 6.9 2.3
218
349
551
929
1241
1585
1965
69.0 41.9 15.2 0.3 4.6 6.0 3.8 12.0 2.9 24.1
70.7 24.6 45.5 14.8 0.6 4.9 6.8 3.4 14.9 2.7 22.6
66.0 19.7 42.6 12.7 0.6 3.8 7.6 3.3 14.6 1.5 22.0
69.3 21.6 45.6 13.9 0.6 4.1 7.7 3.5 15.8 1.7 22.0
71.1 22.7 47.5 14.7 0.6 4.3 7.8 3.6 16.5 1.7 21.8
72.2 23.1 48.1 14.8 0.6 4.3 7.8 3.6 17.0 1.8 22.3
71.8 22.5 47.7 14.0 0.6 4.3 7.9 3.7 17.3 1.9 22.2
123.2
126.4
117.9
123.8
126.9
129.0
128.2
Source: PRIMES
92
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Ireland: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
3.507 61.2 167.4 3.01 69.1
3.598 77.7 139.9 3.03 69.5
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
3.778 123.7 115.8 2.93 84.7
4.109 162.2 93.3 3.01 89.7
4.614 158.8 97.8 2.74 89.5
5.052 190.3 88.6 2.71 89.1
5.404 221.7 80.2 2.67 88.2
5.673 253.4 72.4 2.62 87.0
5.881 285.9 65.3 2.56 85.4
10.2 8.3
13.0 8.0
12.9 8.1
15.0 7.9
18.9 8.5
21.7 8.6
23.1 8.1
0.7 7.3 -3.6 -0.3
2.0 2.5 -1.7 -0.7
1.6 3.4 -2.0 -0.3
0.8 2.6 -2.0 -0.4
2.3
3.9
2.1
222.5 167.3 111.3 48.7 95.9
150.3 129.6 119.2 45.2 115.5
100.0 100.0 100.0 51.0 121.2
80.1 93.3 81.9 48.5 116.0
68.9 99.0 80.3 47.4 115.6
64.5 95.0 72.9 43.9 114.2
60.3 86.3 64.5 41.0 109.9
57.4 80.7 58.0 37.1 105.1
54.7 76.4 52.5 33.6 99.5
-7.7 -5.0 -1.1 0.5 2.4
-3.7 -0.1 -2.2 -0.7 -0.5
-1.3 -1.4 -2.2 -1.5 -0.5
-1.0 -1.2 -2.1 -2.0 -1.0
0.73 2.74 2.28 3.10 2.34 2.96
0.71 2.55 2.05 2.71 2.28 2.96
0.64 2.47 1.98 2.42 2.07 2.97
0.59 2.43 1.99 2.34 1.74 2.98
0.45 2.34 1.67 2.33 1.69 2.92
0.43 2.29 1.62 2.22 1.65 2.88
0.42 2.24 1.58 2.16 1.60 2.85
0.38 2.20 1.50 2.11 1.55 2.84
0.34 2.16 1.41 2.06 1.54 2.82
-1.3 -1.0 -1.4 -2.4 -1.2 0.1
-3.5 -0.5 -1.7 -0.4 -2.0 -0.2
-0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2
-1.9 -0.4 -1.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1
2.0 0.0
2.8 0.0
4.4 2.3
6.8 3.9
8.6 5.3
10.6 6.0
12.7 6.6
23695 0 8830 4387 9311 76 846 244 0 0
25008 0 8822 3389 10959 95 631 1112 0 0
26679 0 7889 1646 12995 129 691 3327 2 0
30342 0 8903 1521 14419 263 708 4516 14 0
33345 0 9741 1322 15062 595 707 5702 24 193
36268 0 9770 1311 15806 931 704 7305 35 405
38339 0 9004 1170 16028 1067 705 9276 49 1039
1.2
2.3
1.4
-1.1 -9.3 3.4 5.4 -2.0 29.9
2.1 -2.2 1.5 16.5 0.2 5.5 28.7
-0.8 -1.2 0.6 6.0 0.0 5.0 7.5 18.4
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
4399 0 346 230 116 0 0 4053 133 0 1276 1966 783 27 0 0
5718 0 743 225 517 0 0 4976 127 0 1229 2927 772 49 0 0
9578 0 1578 225 1348 5 0 7999 273 0 1230 5903 781 85 0 0
9495 0 1901 229 1659 14 0 7593 319 0 1204 6115 190 85 0 0
9808 0 2413 230 2058 25 100 7395 325 0 1222 5853 192 128 0 0
10340 0 3061 230 2585 37 210 7278 331 0 1221 5648 224 186 0 0
11580 0 4026 230 3206 51 539 7553 351 0 1221 5899 224 209 0 0
8.1
0.2
1.7
16.4 -0.2 27.8
4.3 0.2 4.3 17.3
7.0 7.4
-0.8 1.8
5.3 0.0 4.5 7.5 18.4 0.2 0.8
-0.4 11.6 0.0 12.0
-0.1 -0.1 -13.1 4.2
0.0 0.1 1.6 5.0
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
58.1
46.6
30.2
34.8
37.1
38.4
36.4
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
40.6 2.6 0.0 4.9 0.0 4.9
42.2 2.6 0.0 7.3 0.0 7.3
46.8 2.6 0.0 15.5 0.0 15.5
46.9 4.4 0.0 18.1 0.0 18.1
46.9 4.6 0.0 21.7 0.0 21.7
47.6 4.3 0.0 25.9 0.0 25.9
48.5 4.6 0.0 31.7 0.0 31.7
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
29.2 3.9 21.3 1.2 2.0 0.9
35.6 5.2 25.3 1.3 3.0 0.9
47.1 6.1 32.4 1.4 6.3 0.9
58.1 6.7 38.4 1.9 10.1 1.0
62.9 7.2 40.8 2.1 11.9 1.0
71.3 7.7 46.0 2.4 14.2 1.1
80.8 8.2 52.0 2.7 16.7 1.2
90.4 8.7 58.5 3.1 19.0 1.2
100.6 9.2 65.4 3.5 21.3 1.3
4.9 4.7 4.3 1.3 12.3 0.5
2.9 1.6 2.3 4.1 6.6 0.6
2.5 1.3 2.5 2.7 3.5 1.6
2.2 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.3
5.9 5.1 0.6 0.2
6.4 5.5 0.6 0.3
13.3 12.3 0.5 0.6
18.8 17.9 0.3 0.6
17.4 16.7 0.1 0.6
20.4 19.6 0.2 0.7
22.7 21.7 0.2 0.7
25.0 24.0 0.2 0.8
27.5 26.4 0.3 0.8
8.5 9.2 -1.8 9.3
2.7 3.1 -12.5 0.3
2.7 2.7 4.4 2.5
2.0 2.0 3.0 1.4
1989 31 994 525 48 365 26
2349 41 1146 694 50 390 28
4018 48 1713 1577 42 613 25
4997 51 1897 2150 45 836 18
5000 54 1935 1999 28 966 18
5468 57 1954 2316 30 1092 20
5803 58 2041 2472 25 1185 21
5983 58 2030 2607 27 1239 23
6118 58 1981 2717 25 1313 24
7.3 4.4 5.6 11.6 -1.4 5.3 -0.5
2.2 1.3 1.2 2.4 -4.0 4.6 -3.2
1.5 0.6 0.5 2.1 -1.0 2.1 1.7
0.5 0.1 -0.3 1.0 -0.2 1.0 1.2
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
93
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Italy: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
25558 218 4766 14030 0 6544 2719 849 0 5 2971
29435 44 5405 16347 0 7640 3249 1215 1 8 3167
27128 4 4811 13622 0 8691 3812 1716 48 12 3103
28111 60 6520 9886 0 11645 3101 3521 202 30 4791
28335 0 5380 8500 0 14455 3300 5401 528 246 4981
28954 0 5386 7900 0 15668 3308 5568 1005 823 4964
33209 0 5322 7300 3277 17310 3329 5796 1588 1440 5157
44411 0 5186 6700 12794 19731 3329 5880 2314 1990 6218
57483 0 4985 6000 24935 21564 3353 5961 2632 2383 7236
0.6 -33.8 0.1 -0.3
0.4
1.6
5.6
1.1 -4.6
-0.1 -1.5
2.9 3.4 7.3 73.3 9.2 0.4
5.2 -1.4 12.2 27.0 34.8 4.8
1.8 0.1 0.7 11.6 19.4 0.3
-0.7 -1.9 22.5 2.2 0.1 0.3 5.2 5.2 3.4
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
132454 13792 90279 84617 5662 25311 2980
135059 12987 90092 82939 7153 28530 3218
153428 13188 88933 90784 -1852 47008 3813
160955 16366 79901 95053 -15153 59840 4227
154695 16066 69397 81995 -12597 64248 3630
160872 17246 69795 82416 -12621 68439 3333
165235 18216 69133 81761 -12628 71852 2914
160995 17237 67062 79702 -12640 70264 2512
154560 15820 63956 76595 -12639 67975 2126
1.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.7
0.1 2.0 -2.4 -1.0
0.7 1.3 0.0 0.0
-0.7 -1.4 -0.8 -0.7
6.4 2.5
3.2 -0.5
1.1 -2.2
-0.6 -3.1
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
153512 14621 90274 39001 0 2980 6636
161674 12272 93660 44652 0 3218 7871
172955 12659 89365 57940 0 3813 9177
187312 16477 83691 70651 0 4227 12266
179958 16066 71704 72748 0 3630 15808
186617 17246 71971 76339 0 3333 17728
195167 18216 71178 79152 3277 2914 20431
202041 17237 68882 76964 12794 2512 23651
208557 15820 65454 73975 24935 2126 26247
1.2 -1.4 -0.1 4.0
0.4 2.4 -2.2 2.3
0.8 1.3 -0.1 0.8
2.5 3.3
-0.5 5.6
-2.2 2.6
0.7 -1.4 -0.8 -0.7 22.5 -3.1 2.5
9.5 58.8 25.4 0.0 4.3
7.6 57.9 27.6 0.0 4.9
7.3 51.7 33.5 0.0 5.3
8.8 44.7 37.7 0.0 6.5
8.9 39.8 40.4 0.0 8.8
9.2 38.6 40.9 0.0 9.5
9.3 36.5 40.6 1.7 10.5
8.5 34.1 38.1 6.3 11.7
7.6 31.4 35.5 12.0 12.6
213400 29388
237312 31368
270016 35087
296786 36142
300873 33441
331620 37053
373488 42830
405533 46626
434222 51323
2.4 1.8
1.1 -0.5
2.2 2.5
1.5 1.8
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
40328 7017 21531 8971 39 2770 0
43578 5287 25009 10234 94 2954 0
47763 5836 18954 19665 419 2890 0
54689 10001 9640 28200 2270 4578 0
52209 10924 2060 31258 3214 4753 0
55568 11716 3157 32298 3644 4753 0
57998 12403 2854 33739 4065 4937 0
55885 11368 3319 29997 5214 5987 0
50688 10227 1621 25816 5987 7037 0
1.7 -1.8 -1.3 8.2 26.8 0.4
0.9 6.5 -19.9 4.7 22.6 5.1
1.1 1.3 3.3 0.8 2.4 0.4
-1.3 -1.9 -5.5 -2.6 3.9 3.6
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
99583 91895 0 0 7688
99070 92690 0 0 6380
103125 97315 0 0 5811
107857 102905 179 0 4773
94779 89434 1282 0 4063
95850 89681 1810 0 4358
95993 88863 2571 0 4560
94129 86601 2967 0 4561
90771 83238 3296 0 4237
0.4 0.6
-0.8 -0.8
0.1 -0.1 7.2
-0.6 -0.7 2.5
-2.8
-3.5
1.2
-0.7
7028
7345
7289
10110
9398
9473
9674
9607
9425
0.4
2.6
0.3
-0.3
10095
13807
11039
11267
10618
10809
11108
11301
11501
0.9
-0.4
0.5
0.3
107380
113897
123465
135679
131767
137212
141883
144056
145714
1.4
0.7
0.7
0.3
36259 25255 11004 26334 11271 33514
36459 24765 11694 26707 12990 37741
39526 24933 14593 28361 14190 41388
41924 26667 15257 32040 17934 43782
39732 24618 15114 32616 16861 42558
40372 24873 15500 34582 17645 44612
42233 25547 16685 35540 18484 45626
43653 25809 17844 35839 18597 45966
45260 26047 19213 36005 18533 45916
0.9 -0.1 2.9 0.7 2.3 2.1
0.1 -0.1 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.3
0.6 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7
0.7 0.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.1
4209 53841 29813 18409 0 1107 0
4012 53287 34652 20442 0 1505 0
3681 56357 37984 23435 0 2007 0
4220 58458 41979 25828 3082 2112 0
3321 53763 40953 25852 4011 3864 2
3596 53159 43226 27888 4634 4704 5
3772 52682 44454 30571 4413 5984 6
3813 51862 44168 32606 5628 5973 6
3628 50998 44650 34314 5984 6134 6
-1.3 0.5 2.5 2.4
-1.0 -0.5 0.8 1.0
6.1
6.8
1.3 -0.2 0.8 1.7 1.0 4.5 9.7
-0.4 -0.3 0.0 1.2 3.1 0.2 0.1
6180
7829
10053
11953
14729
17071
18722
5.0
3.9
2.4
532.3
513.8 217.8 412.3 124.4 17.5 63.1 62.7 24.3 120.1 27.7 73.7
526.5 226.6 425.9 133.6 17.4 61.5 65.0 23.7 124.6 28.4 72.2
530.2 230.7 429.8 135.6 17.2 64.1 64.6 23.0 125.2 29.2 71.2
513.7 218.1 413.1 123.6 15.6 62.9 64.0 21.9 125.0 30.0 70.6
485.1 193.4 384.8 99.1 14.3 64.1 62.9 20.7 123.7 30.5 69.8
0.6
-0.4
418.8 130.5 15.9 75.5 54.8 22.0 120.1 28.2 85.2
561.6 254.4 447.6 137.8 19.1 74.9 61.4 27.2 127.3 30.5 83.5
0.9 0.9 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 1.4 2.1 -1.5 0.4
-0.2 -0.5 1.0 -1.8 1.4 1.0 0.0 -0.2 -1.4
0.3 0.6 0.4 0.9 -0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.6 0.4 0.5 -0.3
-0.9 -1.7 -1.1 -3.1 -1.9 0.0 -0.3 -1.0 -0.1 0.5 -0.2
106.7
112.6
103.0
105.5
106.3
103.0
97.2
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
499.0
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
384.7 118.8 16.0 77.6 55.7 19.1 97.5 32.7 81.5
399.5 125.9 16.4 73.8 52.9 21.2 109.2 30.6
Source: PRIMES
94
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Italy: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
56.694 1168.7 131.4 2.51 84.8
56.844 1244.9 129.9 2.47 82.3
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
56.924 1367.8 126.4 2.42 87.3
58.462 1429.5 131.0 2.39 84.4
60.017 1403.5 128.2 2.29 84.5
60.929 1526.1 122.3 2.28 84.7
61.421 1678.7 116.3 2.20 83.3
61.683 1832.9 110.2 2.04 78.4
61.868 1974.0 105.7 1.85 72.9
137.3 10.0
158.1 11.1
158.1 11.3
186.0 12.2
224.8 13.4
253.8 13.8
265.5 13.4
0.0 1.6 -0.4 -0.3
0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.6
0.2 1.8 -1.0 -0.4
0.1 1.6 -1.0 -1.8
1.4
3.6
1.7
105.9 109.6 93.4 33.5 48.4
98.6 106.6 101.2 32.5 44.6
100.0 100.0 100.0 31.3 45.2
110.7 108.8 119.0 32.3 47.5
111.4 110.4 111.9 31.6 46.4
106.4 105.1 106.4 30.9 46.5
100.5 98.3 100.8 30.1 45.6
92.9 91.7 92.8 28.8 44.1
87.4 86.5 85.9 27.6 42.0
-0.6 -0.9 0.7 -0.7 -0.7
1.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.3
-1.0 -1.2 -1.0 -0.5 -0.2
-1.4 -1.3 -1.6 -0.9 -0.8
0.56 2.33 2.14 2.12 1.70 2.91
0.53 2.26 2.03 1.98 1.63 2.89
0.48 2.21 1.91 1.93 1.55 2.90
0.39 2.14 1.79 1.92 1.51 2.91
0.34 2.05 1.59 1.92 1.44 2.82
0.33 2.00 1.52 1.88 1.34 2.79
0.31 1.95 1.52 1.82 1.24 2.75
0.25 1.90 1.44 1.79 1.18 2.72
0.19 1.86 1.42 1.75 1.12 2.69
-1.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 0.0
-3.4 -0.7 -1.8 0.0 -0.7 -0.3
-1.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -1.5 -0.3
-4.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -1.1 -0.2
4.9 0.3
5.6 0.9
7.5 3.9
8.5 5.2
10.1 7.1
11.5 8.2
12.5 9.1
270016 0 27603 85749 105453 1604 44328 563 18 4698
296786 0 46304 45284 152542 8901 36061 2344 31 5320
300873 0 48896 9789 177441 13003 38369 6138 1711 5526
331620 0 55517 15697 186399 14733 38468 11685 3594 5526
373488 13681 59526 14001 201434 15873 38710 18465 6058 5741
405533 54580 56696 14836 177090 20134 38707 26909 9620 6962
434222 107502 53197 7176 152004 23807 38992 30600 12762 8183
1.1
2.2
5.9 -19.5 5.3 23.3 -1.4 27.0 57.7 1.6
2.0 3.6 1.3 2.0 0.1 11.6 13.5 0.4
1.5 22.9 -1.1 -6.5 -2.8 4.1 0.1 5.2 7.7 3.6
67747 0 13784 13212 363 209 0 53963 3956 0 8719 23805 20261 588 0 590
81560 0 19213 17095 1635 483 0 62347 5817 0 8816 34917 16623 1322 0 671
96738 0 22856 17095 4507 1254 0 73882 7500 0 9772 50453 10546 2440 0 671
100125 0 27907 17440 7942 2524 0 72218 8571 0 11776 50201 6221 3349 0 671
102164 1579 33428 17440 12154 3834 0 67157 8828 460 10056 48289 3706 4435 0 671
113381 6301 39797 17440 16746 5611 0 67283 9536 460 9899 46701 4017 5871 0 795
125226 12410 43570 17440 19008 7122 0 69245 10528 1207 10816 46166 4086 7243 0 934
3.6
0.5
5.2 2.6 28.6 19.6
3.9 0.2 10.4 11.8
3.2 6.6
-0.9 1.6
1.1 7.8 -6.3 15.3
0.3 -0.4 -9.9 6.2
0.3 1.8 10.1 0.7 -0.4 1.0 5.0
1.3
0.0
3.4
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
43.3
39.7
34.3
36.5
40.1
39.2
37.8
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
40.5 9.1 0.0 19.0 0.0 19.0
40.6 9.7 0.0 17.7 0.0 17.7
41.9 13.3 0.0 21.5 0.0 21.5
43.0 14.6 0.0 22.3 0.0 22.3
44.0 14.4 1.3 26.4 3.7 22.7
42.4 14.1 1.2 38.7 13.5 25.2
41.5 14.3 2.9 51.1 24.8 26.3
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
2.1 22.9 2.7 0.0 4.6 6.4
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
739.1 84.0 582.7 48.9 18.4 5.1
842.8 87.1 674.6 51.9 24.3 4.9
980.7 93.6 793.5 55.2 33.5 5.0
968.1 101.2 763.0 56.5 42.7 4.7
1001.0 103.7 788.1 55.7 48.6 4.8
1056.7 106.6 832.3 56.8 56.1 4.9
1102.3 109.4 862.5 60.5 64.8 5.1
1147.5 112.3 891.2 64.9 73.8 5.3
1191.1 114.7 919.5 69.5 81.9 5.5
2.9 1.1 3.1 1.2 6.2 -0.4
0.2 1.0 -0.1 0.1 3.8 -0.3
1.0 0.5 0.9 0.8 2.9 0.5
0.8 0.5 0.6 1.4 2.4 0.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
180.7 125.5 19.4 35.8
231.6 174.4 21.7 35.4
237.6 184.7 22.8 30.2
262.6 211.8 22.8 28.0
235.8 184.0 24.6 27.2
257.2 202.7 25.7 28.8
273.9 217.0 26.9 30.1
291.8 232.6 27.7 31.5
311.9 250.6 28.5 32.9
2.8 3.9 1.7 -1.7
-0.1 0.0 0.7 -1.0
1.5 1.7 0.9 1.0
1.3 1.5 0.6 0.9
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
33514 739 21620 8154 739 1872 391
37741 706 23735 9612 821 2418 450
41388 793 25970 10097 835 3491 203
43782 932 26093 11738 908 3863 249
42558 945 25971 10175 931 4288 248
44612 942 26689 11168 920 4638 257
45626 920 26885 11718 898 4939 265
45966 895 26620 12104 882 5191 274
45916 867 26248 12382 842 5295 283
2.1 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.2 6.4 -6.3
0.3 1.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 2.0
0.7 -0.3 0.3 1.4 -0.4 1.4 0.7
0.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.6 -0.6 0.7 0.7
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
95
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Latvia: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
1124 61 1 0 0 1062 387 675 0 0 0
1432 78 0 0 0 1354 253 1101 0 0 0
1409 16 0 0 0 1393 242 1150 0 0 0
1870 3 10 0 0 1858 286 1568 4 0 0
1914 1 0 0 0 1913 248 1651 14 0 0
2208 1 0 0 0 2206 250 1918 37 1 0
2311 1 0 0 0 2310 252 2004 51 2 0
2363 1 0 0 0 2363 255 2035 70 3 0
2396 1 0 0 0 2395 257 2048 85 5 0
2.3 -12.3
3.1 -21.8
1.9 -1.9
0.4 -2.7
2.8 -4.6 5.5
3.2 0.2 3.7 44.4
1.9 0.2 2.0 14.2 25.2 2.1
0.4 0.2 0.2 5.3 7.7 1.6
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
7468 627 3972 1 3971 2561 308
3366 170 2094 2 2092 999 194
2245 63 1116 94 1022 1113 154
2994 77 1676 4 1672 1434 185
3146 53 1938 1 1937 1415 121
3295 43 2183 1 2181 1434 43
3296 36 2183 1 2182 1457 20
3235 24 2166 1 2165 1391 21
3197 21 2135 1 2134 1417 20
-11.3 -20.5 -11.9 55.9 -12.7 -8.0 -6.7
3.4 -1.8 5.7 -35.0 6.6 2.4 -2.3
0.5 -3.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.3 -16.4
-0.3 -5.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
7931 711 3487 2380 0 308 1045
4628 273 1893 1010 0 194 1258
3746 135 1175 1092 0 154 1191
4491 82 1382 1358 0 185 1485
4747 54 1625 1415 0 121 1532
5158 44 1838 1434 0 43 1799
5249 37 1826 1457 0 20 1909
5232 24 1801 1391 0 21 1996
5221 22 1763 1417 0 20 1999
-7.2 -15.3 -10.3 -7.5
2.4 -8.7 3.3 2.6
1.0 -3.6 1.2 0.3
-0.1 -5.2 -0.4 -0.3
-6.7 1.3
-2.3 2.5
-16.4 2.2
-0.2 0.5
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
9.0 44.0 30.0 0.0 13.2
5.9 40.9 21.8 0.0 27.2
3.6 31.4 29.2 0.0 31.8
1.8 30.8 30.2 0.0 33.1
1.1 34.2 29.8 0.0 32.3
0.9 35.6 27.8 0.0 34.9
0.7 34.8 27.8 0.0 36.4
0.5 34.4 26.6 0.0 38.1
0.4 33.8 27.1 0.0 38.3
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
6647 1445
3978 1428
4135 1148
4904 1027
5796 1066
7651 1156
8569 1200
9000 1193
9320 1142
-4.6 -2.3
3.4 -0.7
4.0 1.2
0.8 -0.5
887 20 177 690 0 0 0
592 65 242 286 0 0 0
513 47 77 388 0 0 0
576 0 13 541 21 0 0
752 0 11 641 100 0 0
966 0 14 702 250 0 0
1077 0 12 734 331 0 0
1154 0 10 695 449 0 0
1230 0 10 709 511 0 0
-5.3 9.2 -8.0 -5.6
3.9
3.7
1.3
-17.5 5.1
0.8 1.4 12.7
-2.0 -0.3 4.4
2570 1 0 2542 27
892 1 0 881 9
562 1 0 560 1
476 1 2 473 0
443 1 33 409 0
445 1 48 395 0
431 1 67 362 0
388 1 80 307 0
334 1 88 245 0
-14.1 0.0
-2.4 1.3
-14.0 -28.3
-3.1
-0.3 1.2 7.5 -1.2
-2.5 -0.6 2.7 -3.8
126
127
147
100
128
136
138
135
132
1.5
-1.4
0.7
-0.4
78
46
79
93
56
58
59
56
55
0.2
-3.5
0.7
-0.8
6389
3814
3239
4029
4161
4459
4513
4504
4487
-6.6
2.5
0.8
-0.1
1980 712 1267 1586 1727 1097
692 308 384 1603 806 714
573 224 349 1327 592 747
705 287 419 1514 743 1066
654 259 396 1505 705 1297
656 236 420 1552 747 1504
639 217 422 1571 751 1551
619 202 417 1565 748 1572
623 195 428 1548 746 1571
-11.7 -10.9 -12.1 -1.8 -10.1 -3.8
1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.8 5.7
-0.2 -1.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.8
-0.3 -1.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
316 2062 672 711 2013 616 0
124 1157 366 381 905 881 0
57 1057 329 382 590 824 0
73 1331 508 490 598 1028 0
46 1550 491 505 542 1027 0
37 1751 478 577 514 1102 0
31 1740 503 630 494 1115 0
18 1720 532 669 501 1062 0
18 1684 565 700 494 1026 0
-15.7 -6.5 -6.9 -6.0 -11.5 3.0
-2.1 3.9 4.1 2.8 -0.9 2.2
-4.0 1.2 0.2 2.2 -0.9 0.8 12.6
-5.5 -0.3 1.2 1.1 0.0 -0.8 3.6
1178
1387
1457
1671
1757
1815
1810
10.0 6.7 2.4 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.7 2.2 0.2 3.1
11.4 3.0 7.6 2.1 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.8 3.1 0.3 3.5
11.6 3.0 8.2 2.2 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.7 3.7 0.3 3.2
12.2 3.1 8.9 2.2 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.7 4.3 0.3 3.0
12.0 3.1 8.8 2.2 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 4.4 0.3 2.9
11.8 3.0 8.6 2.0 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 4.4 0.3 3.0
11.7 3.0 8.5 2.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 4.3 0.3 3.0
37.0
42.4
43.3
45.2
44.7
44.0
43.6
Annual % Change
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
26.9 18.8 9.7 0.1 2.5 1.2 2.1 3.2 0.6 7.5 100.0
8.8 3.9 0.1 1.3 0.5 0.9 2.1 0.2
2.1
1.9
0.3
-9.5
1.6
-9.9 -13.1 5.0 -9.5 -13.3 -10.8 -3.7 -8.5 -8.6
2.1 -0.9 -10.3 1.0 4.7 1.1 5.6 1.4 0.3
0.3 0.5 0.7 0.3 2.5 -1.2 2.2 -1.4 1.6 0.3 -0.8
-0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -1.1 -1.5 3.0 -1.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.2
Source: PRIMES
96
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Latvia: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
2.668 12.5 632.3 2.37 88.9
2.501 6.8 684.6 1.91 70.5
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
2.382 8.8 426.7 1.78 59.8
2.306 13.0 345.2 1.70 63.0
2.247 12.9 367.9 1.73 62.2
2.200 15.4 334.2 1.72 59.9
2.151 17.4 301.4 1.69 58.8
2.095 19.2 272.8 1.64 57.8
2.033 21.0 248.4 1.63 57.2
1.8 20.8
2.7 21.0
3.1 23.8
4.0 25.9
5.0 28.5
5.6 29.4
6.0 28.3
-1.1 -3.5 -3.9 -2.9
-0.6 3.9 -1.5 -0.2
-0.4 3.0 -2.0 -0.3
-0.6 1.9 -1.9 -0.3
5.3
4.9
1.9
157.6 84.9 322.8 19.6 27.8
153.2 156.2 180.2 37.3 24.9
100.0 100.0 100.0 26.2 19.0
84.9 75.0 84.3 26.1 19.6
84.4 80.6 80.7 27.0 24.8
76.9 67.8 69.1 27.2 24.8
71.4 58.8 61.0 27.0 23.1
66.9 52.6 54.4 26.6 21.4
63.1 47.0 49.2 25.5 19.9
-4.4 1.7 -11.1 2.9 -3.7
-1.7 -2.1 -2.1 0.3 2.7
-1.7 -3.1 -2.8 0.0 -0.7
-1.2 -2.2 -2.1 -0.6 -1.5
0.28 1.41 1.28 0.76 1.21 2.90
0.23 1.26 1.92 0.33 1.12 2.89
0.18 1.26 1.63 0.22 1.13 2.92
0.16 1.35 1.52 0.28 1.09 2.95
0.15 1.44 1.57 0.30 1.06 2.89
0.15 1.46 1.50 0.32 0.96 2.87
0.14 1.44 1.42 0.36 0.86 2.83
0.12 1.44 1.39 0.41 0.81 2.78
0.12 1.43 1.25 0.49 0.79 2.74
-4.3 -1.2 2.4 -11.7 -0.7 0.1
-1.6 1.4 -0.3 3.4 -0.6 -0.1
-1.0 0.0 -1.0 1.8 -2.0 -0.2
-1.5 -0.1 -1.2 3.1 -0.9 -0.3
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
33.7 0.7
32.6 0.7
33.4 3.1
35.9 4.0
37.4 5.5
38.7 7.1
38.9 8.5
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
4135 0 78 107 1128 0 2818 4 0 0
4904 0 0 26 1465 42 3324 47 0 0
5796 0 0 45 2342 368 2881 158 1 0
7651 0 0 52 3303 949 2911 432 5 0
8569 0 0 47 3729 1261 2931 594 8 0
9000 0 0 38 3548 1630 2960 813 12 0
9320 0 0 34 3428 1861 2992 991 14 0
3.4
4.0
0.8
-8.2 7.6
0.4 4.8 13.1 0.2 14.2 24.5
-3.2 -0.8 4.0 0.2 5.3 5.8
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
2079 0 1499 1497 2 0 0 581 354 0 29 449 91 11 0 0
2171 0 1544 1518 26 0 0 627 386 0 0 548 53 26 0 0
2359 0 1616 1520 94 2 0 743 441 0 0 608 54 81 0 0
2856 0 1777 1522 250 5 0 1079 449 0 0 899 54 126 0 0
2902 0 1868 1525 334 9 0 1034 478 0 0 809 54 172 0 0
3068 0 1983 1529 441 13 0 1085 514 0 0 809 54 222 0 0
3110 0 2071 1532 524 15 0 1039 467 0 0 716 47 276 0 0
1.3
2.1
0.7
0.8 0.2 46.9
1.5 0.0 13.6 15.6
1.0 0.0 4.6 5.8
2.5 2.2
3.4 0.8
0.0 -0.2
3.1 -5.1 22.2
2.9 0.1 7.8
-1.2 -1.3 4.8
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
21.8
24.8
27.0
29.7
32.8
32.5
33.3
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
22.0 39.8 0.0 68.3 0.0 68.3
22.9 33.1 0.0 69.6 0.0 69.6
31.5 38.0 0.0 58.8 0.0 58.8
38.3 30.0 0.0 56.2 0.0 56.2
40.2 29.0 0.0 55.9 0.0 55.9
38.9 30.0 0.0 60.2 0.0 60.2
37.2 25.9 0.0 62.9 0.0 62.9
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
0.2 44.4
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
21.1 5.9 6.6 6.1 2.5 0.2
11.4 1.8 7.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
15.4 2.3 11.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
19.7 2.9 14.8 1.2 0.8 0.0
21.5 2.5 16.6 1.2 1.2 0.0
24.6 2.7 19.0 1.3 1.7 0.0
26.1 2.9 19.6 1.5 2.2 0.0
27.4 3.0 19.9 1.5 3.0 0.0
28.7 3.2 20.1 1.6 3.8 0.0
-3.1 -8.7 6.0 -16.7 -18.7
3.4 0.8 3.5 2.0 14.9
1.9 1.2 1.7 1.9 6.1
0.9 1.2 0.3 1.1 5.3
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
24.5 5.9 18.5 0.2
11.6 1.8 9.8 0.0
18.1 4.8 13.3 0.0
28.2 8.4 19.8 0.0
28.8 11.6 17.2 0.0
33.6 13.7 19.8 0.0
36.6 14.5 22.1 0.0
39.4 15.2 24.2 0.0
42.3 15.8 26.5 0.0
-3.0 -2.0 -3.3
4.8 9.3 2.6
2.4 2.2 2.6
1.4 0.9 1.8
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
1097 46 242 512 189 73 35
714 15 378 205 90 26 0
747 17 356 270 76 27 0
1066 21 433 460 94 59 0
1297 18 476 637 81 85 0
1504 19 541 746 90 108 0
1551 19 548 761 88 135 0
1572 20 544 783 60 164 0
1571 21 510 801 42 198 0
-3.8 -9.3 4.0 -6.2 -8.7 -9.6
5.7 0.6 2.9 9.0 0.6 12.2
1.8 0.5 1.4 1.8 0.9 4.8
0.1 0.9 -0.7 0.5 -7.1 3.9
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
97
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Lithuania: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
4740 14 12 0 4394 321 36 285 0 0 0
3695 15 130 0 3050 501 32 469 0 0 0
3188 12 349 0 2172 656 29 627 0 0 0
3702 20 240 0 2666 776 39 734 0 0 3
1010 3 155 0 0 851 36 801 14 0 0
1250 4 130 0 0 1116 37 1050 29 1 0
2996 3 100 0 1572 1321 39 1231 48 3 0
4789 2 85 0 3099 1602 39 1493 64 5 0
5027 2 70 0 3099 1856 40 1730 77 9 0
-3.9 -1.8 40.0
-10.9 -11.7 -7.8
11.5 -0.3 -4.3
5.3 -6.6 -3.5
-6.8 7.4 -2.0 8.2
2.6 2.1 2.5
4.5 0.7 4.4 13.3 21.7 2.0
7.0 3.5 0.4 3.5 4.7 12.7 0.4
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
11688 758 7281 9560 -2279 4678 -1030
5650 157 3693 3619 74 2029 -230
4343 87 2313 4846 -2533 2065 -115
5120 190 2700 9093 -6393 2492 -255
6554 116 2531 8831 -6301 3558 366
7019 100 2839 9812 -6973 3695 412
6534 92 2940 10105 -7165 3571 -31
5795 75 3000 10279 -7279 3149 -372
5573 63 3023 10328 -7305 2939 -361
-9.4 -19.5 -10.8 -6.6
4.2 2.9 0.9 6.2
0.0 -2.3 1.5 1.4
-1.6 -3.6 0.3 0.2
-7.9
5.6
0.0
-1.9
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
16059 797 6899 4678 4394 -1030 320
8672 246 3085 2029 3050 -230 493
7070 98 2203 2064 2172 -115 649
8616 201 2769 2476 2666 -255 758
7408 119 2530 3558 0 366 836
8098 103 2798 3695 0 412 1089
9354 95 2864 3571 1572 -31 1283
10405 77 2906 3149 3099 -372 1545
10420 65 2913 2939 3099 -361 1765
-7.9 -18.9 -10.8 -7.9 -6.8
0.5 2.0 1.4 5.6
2.4 -2.3 1.2 0.0
1.1 -3.7 0.2 -1.9 7.0
7.3
2.6
4.4
3.2
5.0 43.0 29.1 27.4 2.0
2.8 35.6 23.4 35.2 5.7
1.4 31.2 29.2 30.7 9.2
2.3 32.1 28.7 30.9 8.8
1.6 34.1 48.0 0.0 11.3
1.3 34.6 45.6 0.0 13.4
1.0 30.6 38.2 16.8 13.7
0.7 27.9 30.3 29.8 14.8
0.6 28.0 28.2 29.7 16.9
28400 3959
13518 4152
11118 3075
14412 2782
6425 1760
7007 1758
13413 2079
18643 2375
18802 2293
-9.0 -2.5
-5.3 -5.4
7.6 1.7
3.4 1.0
2610 0 1067 1543 0 0 0
950 0 517 433 0 0 0
912 0 196 716 0 0 0
1221 0 172 1044 5 0 0
1923 0 72 1770 81 0 0
2059 0 64 1829 165 0 0
2035 0 57 1714 264 0 0
1717 0 40 1357 321 0 0
1770 0 73 1349 347 0 0
-10.0
7.7
0.6
-1.4
-15.6 -7.4
-9.5 9.5
-2.4 -0.3 12.5
2.6 -2.4 2.8
11418 9591 0 1819 8
4482 3402 0 1074 6
5762 5105 0 653 4
9984 9458 3 519 4
9517 8936 11 567 3
10570 9912 36 620 2
10893 10191 81 618 2
11071 10357 101 613 1
11134 10395 111 626 1
-6.6 -6.1
5.1 5.8
-9.7 -7.0
-1.4 -4.4
1.4 1.3 21.7 0.9 -2.3
0.2 0.2 3.2 0.1 -7.1
Energy Branch Consumption
996
600
670
958
849
913
982
1045
1036
-3.9
2.4
1.5
0.5
Non-Energy Uses
864
544
657
795
1007
1102
1100
1092
1073
-2.7
4.4
0.9
-0.3
9679
4592
3740
4465
4635
5145
5395
5580
5640
-9.1
2.2
1.5
0.4
3327 1670 1657 1843 2512 1996
1017 473 544 1641 894 1040
780 361 419 1342 566 1051
995 442 552 1384 678 1408
973 436 537 1365 679 1618
1078 471 607 1488 727 1853
1099 465 633 1552 741 2004
1120 473 647 1556 747 2158
1107 469 638 1573 748 2212
-13.5 -14.2 -12.8 -3.1 -13.8 -6.2
2.2 1.9 2.5 0.2 1.8 4.4
1.2 0.7 1.7 1.3 0.9 2.2
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0
748 4064 1483 1033 2078 272 0
225 1670 510 546 1193 448 0
87 1352 363 531 828 579 0
190 1610 503 682 905 574 0
116 1793 405 700 1080 541 0
99 2025 454 791 1204 572 0
91 2126 469 856 1275 576 0
74 2247 472 925 1229 632 0
62 2280 484 958 1306 550 0
-19.4 -10.4 -13.1 -6.4 -8.8 7.9
2.9 2.9 1.1 2.8 2.7 -0.7
-2.3 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.7 0.6 12.5
-3.8 0.7 0.3 1.1 0.2 -0.5 0.3
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
48.8 32.4 12.0 1.6 6.1 2.3 4.5 5.8 3.5 12.9 100.0
13.5 5.6 0.8 1.7 0.8 1.5 3.0 1.5
642
727
770
893
988
1082
1223
18.9 10.2 3.9 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 3.1 1.6 7.1
22.5 10.1 12.5 3.9 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.6 4.1 1.7 8.3
23.7 11.1 13.6 5.3 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 4.7 1.9 8.3
22.9 10.0 14.3 5.6 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 5.3 2.1 6.4
22.7 9.8 14.2 5.3 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 5.6 2.2 6.3
21.6 8.8 13.3 4.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 6.0 2.3 6.0
21.2 8.4 12.8 4.0 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 6.1 2.4 6.0
38.8
46.1
48.6
46.8
46.4
44.3
43.4
1.8
2.5
2.2
-9.0
2.3
-10.9 -10.6 -3.5 -15.9 -13.6 -19.8 -6.2 -7.7 -5.8
2.8 3.1 3.1 -2.0 1.1 -0.2 4.4 1.9 1.5
-0.4 -1.3 0.5 0.0 -2.8 0.7 1.4 -0.8 1.8 1.6 -2.7
-0.7 -1.5 -1.0 -2.7 -5.4 -0.8 -0.2 -0.7 0.8 0.8 -0.4
Source: PRIMES
98
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Lithuania: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
3.694 19.4 829.6 2.02 72.4
3.643 11.4 761.0 1.55 64.1
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
3.512 14.3 493.0 1.45 60.6
3.425 20.9 412.8 1.45 58.5
3.337 21.5 345.3 1.83 86.7
3.275 26.3 308.5 1.77 84.9
3.220 30.3 308.2 1.52 68.6
3.158 33.5 310.1 1.28 54.8
3.083 36.3 287.2 1.23 52.6
2.3 16.1
3.4 16.2
3.9 18.0
5.0 19.0
6.5 21.5
7.7 23.0
8.5 23.4
-0.5 -3.0 -5.1 -3.3
-0.5 4.1 -3.5 2.4
-0.4 3.5 -1.1 -1.9
-0.4 1.8 -0.7 -2.1
5.3
5.4
2.7
258.4 103.1 452.0 30.8 46.9
180.8 158.3 203.3 26.6 37.1
100.0 100.0 100.0 20.7 25.8
78.3 67.4 87.1 18.0 24.2
68.7 68.6 86.4 18.1 24.9
62.1 61.1 75.5 18.6 24.9
55.8 56.2 65.9 20.3 24.2
53.5 51.4 58.8 22.8 23.5
51.0 48.1 53.3 23.5 22.8
-9.1 -0.3 -14.0 -3.9 -5.8
-3.7 -3.7 -1.5 -1.3 -0.3
-2.1 -2.0 -2.7 1.2 -0.3
-0.9 -1.5 -2.1 1.5 -0.6
0.21 1.94 1.83 1.27 1.80 2.93
0.17 1.54 1.69 0.48 1.73 2.91
0.16 1.39 1.37 0.40 0.88 2.93
0.14 1.49 1.35 0.46 0.85 2.93
0.23 1.44 0.90 0.44 0.72 2.91
0.22 1.44 0.87 0.45 0.66 2.88
0.16 1.43 0.86 0.45 0.61 2.81
0.12 1.44 0.80 0.44 0.57 2.79
0.11 1.43 0.78 0.43 0.57 2.77
-2.8 -3.3 -2.8 -10.8 -6.9 0.0
3.6 0.4 -4.1 0.9 -2.0 -0.1
-3.4 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 -1.6 -0.4
-4.2 0.0 -0.9 -0.3 -0.8 -0.2
15.1 0.0
14.8 0.3
15.4 0.9
16.2 2.5
17.1 5.2
18.1 6.0
20.3 6.6
11118 8417 0 405 1957 0 339 0 0 0
14412 10335 0 476 3136 12 451 2 0 0
6425 0 0 207 5422 212 419 162 2 0
7007 0 0 189 5602 451 425 336 4 0
13413 6563 0 168 4861 794 449 564 15 0
18643 13127 0 102 3272 904 457 745 34 0
18802 13127 0 179 3188 893 466 890 60 0
-5.3
7.6
3.4 7.2
-6.5 10.7
-2.1 -1.1 14.1 0.7 13.3 24.3
0.6 -4.1 1.2 0.4 4.7 14.7
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
4586 2291 100 100 0 0 0 2196 873 0 0 1661 528 7 0 0
3692 1200 115 114 1 0 0 2377 824 0 0 2057 303 17 0 0
2756 0 299 122 175 2 0 2457 873 0 0 2124 315 18 0 0
3020 0 493 123 365 5 0 2527 930 0 0 2163 327 38 0 0
4131 758 779 148 615 16 0 2595 999 0 0 2184 332 78 0 0
4850 1515 1006 155 815 36 0 2329 916 0 0 2017 203 110 0 0
4984 1515 1196 159 975 62 0 2273 997 0 0 2017 96 160 0 0
-5.0
4.1
11.6 2.0
10.0 1.9 13.4 22.9
1.9 7.2 4.4 0.7 4.7 14.7
1.1 0.0
0.5 1.4
-1.3 0.0
2.5 -5.0 9.6
0.3 0.5 16.2
-0.8 -11.6 7.4
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
23.5
40.2
24.9
25.2
35.3
41.7
41.0
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
22.3 18.3 0.0 78.8 75.7 3.0
25.5 17.8 0.0 74.9 71.7 3.2
26.1 62.5 0.0 12.4 0.0 12.4
26.1 59.5 0.0 17.4 0.0 17.4
24.6 32.6 0.0 62.5 48.9 13.6
21.4 20.4 0.0 81.9 70.4 11.5
20.7 21.9 0.0 82.1 69.8 12.3
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
2.1
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
24.1 7.9 11.3 3.6 1.0 0.2
21.7 4.2 16.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
30.0 2.8 26.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
40.1 3.7 35.1 0.4 0.8 0.1
44.9 3.6 39.8 0.4 1.0 0.1
49.1 3.9 43.2 0.4 1.4 0.1
49.9 4.1 43.3 0.5 1.9 0.1
50.1 4.2 42.8 0.5 2.5 0.1
50.4 4.2 42.2 0.5 3.3 0.1
2.2 -10.0 8.8 -16.3 -10.3 -12.8
4.1 2.7 4.2 -4.0 12.4 0.2
1.1 1.4 0.9 1.6 6.0 0.8
0.1 0.3 -0.3 1.3 5.8 0.6
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
26.8 7.3 19.3 0.2
12.4 5.2 7.2 0.0
16.7 7.8 8.9 0.0
28.4 15.9 12.5 0.0
32.3 19.0 13.4 0.0
37.8 22.5 15.3 0.0
40.9 24.1 16.8 0.0
43.1 25.1 18.1 0.0
45.0 25.8 19.3 0.0
-4.6 0.6 -7.4
6.8 9.3 4.1
2.4 2.4 2.3
1.0 0.7 1.4
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
1996 46 539 1139 133 135 5
1040 25 504 383 87 41 1
1051 16 572 358 76 27 3
1408 21 648 608 79 46 5
1618 21 725 723 84 60 5
1853 23 804 850 94 77 5
2004 24 886 892 99 96 5
2158 25 993 913 103 118 6
2212 26 1007 922 108 144 6
-6.2 -9.8 0.6 -10.9 -5.5 -14.9 -5.0
4.4 2.5 2.4 7.3 1.0 8.5 5.3
2.2 1.6 2.0 2.1 1.7 4.8 0.7
1.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.9 4.1 0.4
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
99
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Luxembourg: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
47 0 0 0 0 47 6 41 0 0 0
47 0 0 0 0 47 7 39 0 0 0
57 0 0 0 0 57 10 44 2 0 0
74 0 0 0 0 74 8 59 5 2 0
96 0 0 0 0 96 8 76 6 6 0
149 0 0 0 0 149 7 103 13 26 0
182 0 0 0 0 182 8 119 20 36 0
203 0 0 0 0 203 8 123 23 49 0
215 0 0 0 0 215 8 126 27 55 0
1.9
5.5
6.6
1.7
1.9 5.8 0.7
5.5 -2.9 5.6 10.8
6.6 0.2 4.5 11.8 19.7 0.3
1.7 0.2 0.6 3.0 4.3 0.5
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
3526 1134 1626 0 1626 430 336
3264 514 1763 0 1763 557 430
3630 125 2342 0 2342 670 492
4622 82 3081 0 3081 1179 280
4697 37 3067 0 3067 1250 318
5068 30 3271 0 3271 1372 327
5128 25 3208 0 3208 1489 300
5131 17 3118 0 3118 1599 274
5043 12 2972 0 2972 1645 284
0.3 -19.8 3.7
2.6 -11.6 2.7
0.9 -3.7 0.5
-0.2 -7.1 -0.8
3.7 4.6 3.9
2.7 6.4 -4.3
0.5 1.8 -0.6
-0.8 1.0 -0.6
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
3561 1134 1614 430 0 336 47
3342 514 1794 557 0 430 47
3637 125 2292 670 0 492 57
4714 82 3100 1179 0 280 74
4793 37 3067 1250 0 318 122
5218 30 3271 1372 0 327 218
5310 25 3208 1489 0 300 287
5334 17 3118 1599 0 274 326
5258 12 2972 1645 0 284 345
0.2 -19.8 3.6 4.6
2.8 -11.6 3.0 6.4
1.0 -3.7 0.5 1.8
-0.1 -7.1 -0.8 1.0
3.9 1.9
-4.3 8.0
-0.6 9.0
-0.6 1.9
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
31.9 45.3 12.1 0.0 1.3
15.4 53.7 16.7 0.0 1.4
3.4 63.0 18.4 0.0 1.6
1.7 65.8 25.0 0.0 1.6
0.8 64.0 26.1 0.0 2.5
0.6 62.7 26.3 0.0 4.2
0.5 60.4 28.0 0.0 5.4
0.3 58.5 30.0 0.0 6.1
0.2 56.5 31.3 0.0 6.6
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
627 410
498 497
433 439
3344 448
3485 545
4411 644
5303 707
6025 753
6163 780
-3.6 0.7
23.2 2.2
4.3 2.6
1.5 1.0
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
190 0 3 162 25 0 0
132 0 2 106 24 0 0
75 0 0 47 28 0 0
568 0 0 525 43 0 0
574 0 0 540 34 0 0
697 0 1 655 42 0 0
813 0 1 765 47 0 0
922 0 1 874 47 0 0
937 0 1 892 44 0 0
-8.8
22.5
3.5
1.4
-11.6 1.0
27.6 1.8
3.5 3.4
2.5 1.5 -0.6
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
378 0 0 0 378
144 0 0 0 144
0 0 0 0 0
1 0 1 0 0
55 0 55 0 0
117 0 117 0 0
163 0 163 0 0
182 0 182 0 0
188 0 188 0 0
11.5
1.4
11.5
1.4
Energy Branch Consumption
31
30
26
30
37
44
48
51
53
-1.8
3.8
2.7
0.8
Non-Energy Uses
20
23
14
20
22
27
29
31
33
-3.9
5.0
2.7
1.3
3335
3171
3558
4439
4491
4859
4904
4885
4805
0.7
2.4
0.9
-0.2
1729 1525 204 521 74 1010
1197 901 296 565 99 1311
958 506 453 598 118 1884
938 461 477 651 130 2721
899 431 468 676 137 2780
997 468 529 701 149 3012
1041 481 560 708 155 3000
1081 486 595 717 158 2929
1120 491 630 725 162 2798
-5.7 -10.5 8.3 1.4 4.7 6.4
-0.6 -1.6 0.3 1.2 1.5 4.0
1.5 1.1 1.8 0.5 1.3 0.8
0.7 0.2 1.2 0.2 0.4 -0.7
756 1587 622 355 0 15 0
369 1758 585 430 14 15 0
125 2276 623 491 27 16 0
82 3080 678 529 55 16 0
37 3044 710 571 59 70 0
30 3243 717 651 68 149 0
25 3178 724 696 76 206 1
17 3086 725 727 89 240 1
12 2937 752 747 98 259 1
-16.5 3.7 0.0 3.3
-11.6 3.0 1.3 1.5 8.1 16.0
-3.7 0.4 0.2 2.0 2.6 11.3 7.5
-7.1 -0.8 0.4 0.7 2.5 2.3 1.5
Annual % Change
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
13.1 10.7 0.7 0.0 5.7 1.3 0.0 3.0 1.6 0.9 100.0
8.7 0.4 0.0 3.1 1.3 0.0 3.9 1.0
32
41
109
203
271
311
331
10.5 8.9 0.1 0.0 1.7 1.4 0.1 5.6 0.7 0.9
14.3 4.0 12.4 1.2 0.0 1.5 1.4 0.1 8.2 0.8 1.1
14.1 3.8 12.3 1.3 0.0 1.3 1.4 0.1 8.2 0.7 1.1
15.1 4.2 13.1 1.5 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.1 8.7 0.8 1.2
15.2 4.5 13.2 1.8 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.1 8.6 0.8 1.1
15.1 4.7 13.1 2.0 0.0 1.4 1.3 0.1 8.3 0.8 1.1
14.7 4.6 12.8 2.1 0.0 1.5 1.3 0.1 7.9 0.8 1.1
80.2
109.1
107.6
115.0
115.6
115.1
112.1
0.4
13.2
9.5
2.0
-2.2
3.0
-1.8 -17.0
3.3 27.6
0.7 1.7 0.7 3.6
-0.3 0.2 -0.3 1.5
-11.5 1.1 17.3 6.5 -7.6 0.4
-2.5 0.2 -3.0 3.9 0.2 2.0
0.8 -0.4 0.3 0.4 1.5 0.1
0.4 -0.6 -1.3 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1
Source: PRIMES
100
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Luxembourg: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
0.379 13.6 262.3 2.99 99.0
0.406 18.8 177.4 2.62 97.7
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
0.434 25.4 143.4 2.44 99.8
0.461 30.2 155.9 2.64 98.0
0.494 32.6 147.1 2.56 98.0
0.523 40.5 128.7 2.52 97.1
0.551 47.3 112.2 2.49 96.6
0.579 53.4 99.9 2.46 96.2
0.607 59.4 88.5 2.43 95.9
2.7 10.8
3.7 12.3
3.9 11.9
4.7 11.5
5.7 12.0
6.3 11.8
6.4 10.8
1.3 6.5 -5.9 -2.0
1.3 2.5 0.3 0.5
1.1 3.8 -2.7 -0.3
1.0 2.3 -2.3 -0.2
3.5
3.8
1.2
259.7 125.3 103.2 119.7 92.1
159.1 116.2 111.6 125.6 84.1
100.0 100.0 100.0 136.5 102.9
93.6 100.4 91.5 150.7 156.5
86.3 98.1 88.9 143.3 154.7
78.9 81.0 77.8 131.7 151.2
72.4 69.7 69.0 119.4 146.2
68.5 62.5 62.0 107.2 139.2
65.6 56.6 57.1 96.4 128.0
-9.1 -2.2 -0.3 1.3 1.1
-1.5 -0.2 -1.2 0.5 4.2
-1.7 -3.4 -2.5 -1.8 -0.6
-1.0 -2.1 -1.9 -2.1 -1.3
1.13 2.98 3.28 2.45 0.21 2.96
0.59 2.63 2.58 2.39 0.35 2.96
0.15 2.46 1.74 2.37 0.65 2.97
0.31 2.52 1.63 2.21 0.48 3.00
0.30 2.45 1.45 2.14 0.41 2.95
0.29 2.39 1.41 2.03 0.40 2.90
0.29 2.33 1.36 1.96 0.37 2.85
0.29 2.27 1.32 1.88 0.34 2.83
0.29 2.22 1.31 1.81 0.32 2.81
-18.4 -1.9 -6.1 -0.3 12.0 0.1
7.4 -0.1 -1.8 -1.0 -4.4 -0.1
-0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 -0.3
-0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 -0.1
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
0.9 0.0
0.9 0.1
2.5 2.3
4.3 4.6
5.7 6.5
6.5 7.4
7.0 8.0
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
433 0 0 0 231 55 120 27 0 0
3344 0 0 0 3050 130 93 53 18 0
3485 0 0 0 3165 115 90 75 40 0
4411 0 0 3 3976 136 84 155 59 0
5303 0 0 3 4698 208 92 231 72 0
6025 0 0 4 5374 206 92 270 80 0
6163 0 0 4 5477 197 94 309 82 0
23.2
4.3
1.5
29.9 7.6 -2.9 10.8
4.0 6.1 0.2 11.8 6.1
2.5 1.5 -0.6 0.2 3.0 1.4
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
165 0 54 39 14 1 0 111 37 0 0 95 0 16 0 0
609 0 101 40 35 26 0 509 54 0 0 483 0 25 0 0
607 0 131 40 50 41 0 477 94 0 0 452 0 25 0 0
858 0 234 40 134 61 0 624 151 0 0 599 1 24 0 0
1048 0 300 40 186 74 0 749 185 0 0 719 1 28 0 0
1179 0 334 40 211 83 0 845 213 0 0 816 1 28 0 0
1233 0 358 40 232 86 0 875 226 0 0 845 1 28 0 0
13.9
5.6
1.6
9.3 0.2 13.5 45.1
8.7 0.0 14.1 6.1
1.8 0.1 2.3 1.4
15.7 9.8
4.6 7.0
1.6 2.0
16.8
4.8
4.5
1.3
1.6 1.0 0.0
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
28.0
62.2
63.9
57.1
56.2
56.8
55.6
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
32.7 52.7 0.0 46.7 0.0 46.7
48.1 12.6 0.0 8.8 0.0 8.8
49.2 16.3 0.0 9.2 0.0 9.2
50.7 18.9 0.0 9.8 0.0 9.8
51.9 18.0 0.0 11.4 0.0 11.4
52.1 18.4 0.0 10.7 0.0 10.7
52.1 19.3 0.0 11.1 0.0 11.1
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
5.2 0.5 4.0 0.2 0.5 0.0
6.2 0.5 4.8 0.3 0.5 0.0
7.3 0.6 5.7 0.3 0.6 0.0
8.1 0.8 6.5 0.3 0.6 0.0
8.6 0.9 6.7 0.3 0.7 0.0
9.5 0.9 7.4 0.4 0.8 0.0
9.8 1.0 7.5 0.4 1.0 0.0
10.2 1.0 7.7 0.4 1.1 0.0
10.7 1.1 8.0 0.4 1.2 0.0
3.4 2.6 3.6 4.8 2.2
1.6 3.3 1.6 -0.5 0.7
1.4 1.1 1.1 1.8 3.5
0.9 1.0 0.6 1.0 2.5
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
4.2 3.2 0.6 0.4
6.4 5.5 0.5 0.3
8.6 7.6 0.6 0.4
9.5 8.8 0.4 0.3
10.0 9.3 0.4 0.3
11.7 10.8 0.5 0.4
12.5 11.6 0.5 0.4
13.2 12.3 0.5 0.4
13.8 12.9 0.5 0.4
7.5 9.0 0.3 0.4
1.5 2.0 -4.1 -1.0
2.2 2.3 1.8 0.9
1.0 1.0 0.4 0.9
1010 10 483 364 13 131 9
1311 11 574 520 9 189 8
1884 13 662 866 15 320 7
2721 17 779 1479 9 431 6
2780 18 769 1540 10 438 6
3012 18 751 1750 11 476 6
3000 18 674 1815 11 477 6
2929 18 602 1820 10 472 6
2798 18 570 1752 10 441 7
6.4 2.3 3.2 9.1 2.0 9.3 -2.4
4.0 3.2 1.5 5.9 -4.5 3.2 -1.5
0.8 0.3 -1.3 1.7 0.8 0.9 0.7
-0.7 0.0 -1.7 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 0.8
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
101
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Malta: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 4 0
25 0 0 0 0 25 0 3 3 19 0
40 0 0 0 0 40 0 4 9 27 0
55 0 0 0 0 55 0 5 19 30 0
66 0 0 0 0 66 0 5 28 33 0
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
612 0 612 0 612 0 0
891 0 891 0 891 0 0
822 0 822 0 822 0 0
958 0 958 0 958 0 0
911 0 911 0 911 0 0
808 0 662 0 662 143 0
793 0 617 0 617 149 22
777 0 537 0 537 211 24
761 0 485 0 485 242 26
3.0
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
582 0 582 0 0 0 0
809 0 809 0 0 0 0
773 0 773 0 0 0 0
958 0 958 0 0 0 0
916 0 911 0 0 0 5
833 0 662 143 0 0 28
833 0 617 149 0 22 45
832 0 537 211 0 24 60
827 0 485 242 0 26 73
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 99.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
0.0 79.5 17.1 0.0 3.4
0.0 74.1 17.9 0.0 5.4
0.0 64.6 25.3 0.0 7.2
0.0 58.7 29.3 0.0 8.9
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
1100 190
1632 373
1917 350
2240 396
2166 382
2269 369
2136 345
2186 310
2170 268
5.7 6.3
322 0 322 0 0 0 0
463 0 463 0 0 0 0
495 0 495 0 0 0 0
580 0 580 0 0 0 0
539 0 539 0 0 0 0
419 0 275 140 4 0 0
369 0 224 140 5 0 0
333 0 149 177 7 0 0
297 0 108 182 7 0 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
3 0 3 0 0
3 0 3 0 0
4 0 4 0 0
6 0 6 0 0
Energy Branch Consumption
8
19
10
9
8
8
7
6
5
Non-Energy Uses
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
333
451
412
526
529
573
604
634
654
0 0 0 55 56 222
42 0 42 73 32 305
43 0 43 76 55 238
46 0 46 89 63 329
46 0 46 92 66 324
50 0 50 101 75 346
53 0 53 111 85 355
57 0 57 120 94 363
60 0 60 126 100 369
0 255 0 78 0 0 0
0 343 0 108 0 0 0
0 277 0 135 0 0 0
0 378 0 148 0 0 0
0 371 0 153 0 4 0
0 387 2 163 0 20 0
0 393 9 176 0 25 0
0 388 33 186 0 26 0
0 378 60 190 0 27 0
Annual % Change
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
24.5
5.1
24.5
5.1
50.7 19.8 0.1
2.8 11.4 2.2 -1.5
1.0
-1.4
-0.4
3.0
1.0
-3.8
-2.4
3.0
1.0
-3.8 133.0
-2.4 5.0 1.7
2.9
1.7
-0.9
-0.1
2.9
1.7
-3.8 133.0
-2.4 5.0
24.7
1.7 5.1
1.2 0.9
-0.1 -1.0
0.2 -2.5
4.4
0.9
-3.7
-2.1
4.4
0.9
-8.4
-7.1 2.7 3.0
23.0
5.3
24.8 3.3
5.4 3.4
2.5
-2.3
-1.7
-3.1
2.2
2.5
1.3
0.8
0.7
1.4
1.2
3.2 -0.2 0.7
0.7 2.0 1.9 3.1
1.4 1.9 2.5 0.9
1.2 1.2 1.6 0.4
0.9
3.0
5.6
1.3
0.6 79.7 1.4 3.3 19.9 9.5
-0.4 20.9 0.7 3.4 0.6 -0.3
3.1
1.6
3.0 4.4
-1.8
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
2.0 1.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.2 100.0
2.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.0
0
0
5
26
41
56
69
2.7 2.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.3
3.3 2.1 3.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.3
3.1 2.0 2.8 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.3
2.6 1.6 2.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.3
2.5 1.5 2.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.2
2.4 1.3 2.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.3
2.3 1.3 2.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.2
135.1
168.0
158.3
134.5
126.3
121.5
116.3
23.9
5.2
1.7 0.9
-2.2 -3.3 -2.3 -4.9
-0.8 -1.5 -0.9 -3.0
0.7
2.0 2.4 3.2
-0.4 2.6 0.8
1.7 4.3 0.2
3.4
0.6
-1.3
0.3
Source: PRIMES
102
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Malta: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
0.352 2.9 200.3 3.06 100.0
0.369 3.7 218.0 3.08 104.5
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
0.380 4.5 170.3 3.10 100.8
0.403 4.8 199.7 3.12 100.0
0.414 5.2 176.9 3.10 99.5
0.421 5.9 141.5 2.84 97.0
0.427 6.8 122.8 2.69 95.2
0.431 7.6 109.7 2.56 93.4
0.432 8.3 99.7 2.46 92.0
0.4 8.9
0.6 12.6
0.6 12.2
0.7 12.4
0.9 13.8
1.1 14.7
1.2 14.6
0.8 4.6 -1.6 0.1
0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0
0.3 2.7 -3.6 -1.4
0.1 2.0 -2.1 -0.9
4.5
4.0
2.6
-1.4 -4.5 -1.2 -3.0
2.3 0.6 0.1 2.1 2.1
-1.3 -1.0 -0.3 -1.5 -0.8
-0.7 -0.8 -0.4 -1.4 -0.5
-1.3 -1.3
-0.3 0.5
-4.8 -0.5
-3.2 -0.2
-4.9
0.0 0.5 0.1
-2.3 0.1 -0.1
0.4 2.6 -0.1
0.0 115.3 158.1 47.2 211.4
122.2 114.5 70.7 56.2 232.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 41.7 156.0
133.5 108.5 103.0 57.4 212.1
125.2 106.3 100.8 51.3 192.7
119.2 101.4 100.6 47.8 183.1
110.4 96.4 98.2 44.2 178.7
105.4 92.3 97.5 41.3 175.0
102.6 88.5 94.2 38.4 169.6
0.93 2.26
0.91 2.24 0.00 1.47 0.00 2.96
0.82 1.99 0.00 1.01 0.64 2.98
0.83 2.14 0.00 1.10 0.69 3.00
0.80 2.10 0.00 1.00 0.67 3.00
0.53 2.03 0.00 0.86 0.60 2.98
0.49 1.99 0.00 0.80 0.67 2.97
0.41 1.96 0.00 0.79 0.78 2.96
0.35 1.94 0.00 0.83 0.87 2.93
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
1.0 0.1
5.2 1.1
7.9 1.5
10.5 1.9
12.7 2.9
1917 0 0 1917 0 0 0 0 0 0
2240 0 0 2240 0 0 0 0 0 0
2166 0 0 2158 0 0 0 0 8 0
2269 0 0 1303 893 17 0 32 25 0
2136 0 0 1060 893 23 0 109 52 0
2186 0 0 701 1145 30 0 222 89 0
2170 0 0 503 1181 31 0 321 135 0
1.2
-0.1
0.2
1.2
-6.9
-7.2 2.8 3.0
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
484 0 0 0 0 0 0 484 0 0 0 0 484 0 0 0
544 0 0 0 0 0 0 544 0 0 0 0 544 0 0 0
550 0 5 0 0 5 0 545 0 0 0 0 545 0 0 0
836 0 31 0 15 16 0 805 0 0 0 124 678 2 0 0
654 0 80 0 46 34 0 574 0 0 0 124 447 3 0 0
757 0 147 0 89 58 0 609 0 0 0 160 446 4 0 0
828 0 213 0 125 88 0 615 0 0 0 165 446 4 0 0
1.3
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
42.5
44.9
43.0
29.8
35.9
32.0
29.1
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
33.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
34.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4
45.4 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 3.2
46.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 0.0 8.6
48.5 0.0 0.0 15.6 0.0 15.6
49.6 0.0 0.0 22.4 0.0 22.4
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
1.66 0.00 2.97
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
0.0
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
21.1
11.4 9.9
1.7
2.4
31.9
10.3
21.1
10.6 9.9
1.2
0.5
0.7
1.2
-2.0
2.9 0.0 3.0
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
3.9 0.4 1.5 0.0 2.0 0.0
4.4 0.4 1.8 0.0 2.2 0.0
4.8 0.5 1.9 0.0 2.5 0.0
4.8 0.5 2.1 0.0 2.3 0.0
5.4 0.5 2.2 0.0 2.7 0.0
6.2 0.5 2.2 0.0 3.4 0.0
6.8 0.5 2.2 0.0 4.0 0.0
7.4 0.6 2.2 0.0 4.7 0.0
8.1 0.6 2.2 0.0 5.3 0.0
1.9 1.2 1.9
1.2 1.2 1.7
2.4 0.5 0.1
1.7 0.2 -0.1
2.1
0.8
4.2
2.8
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
4.1 4.1
0.0 0.0
1.9 1.9
1.3 1.3
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
222 9 105 35 0 72 0
305 9 164 58 0 74 0
238 7 105 39 0 86 0
329 10 175 53 0 90 0
324 11 164 48 0 101 0
346 11 160 51 0 124 0
355 10 151 54 0 140 0
363 10 142 57 0 154 0
369 10 135 58 0 165 0
0.7 -1.9 0.0 1.0
3.1 3.7 4.6 2.1
0.9 -0.1 -0.9 1.2
0.4 -0.7 -1.1 0.8
1.8
1.6
3.3
1.7
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
103
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Netherlands: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
60563 0 4114 54613 881 956 7 942 5 2 0
66301 0 3625 60456 1036 1184 8 1144 27 5 0
57430 0 2472 51904 1013 2040 12 1945 71 12 0
61899 0 2346 56265 1031 2257 8 2050 178 22 0
60223 2 1240 54900 1017 3064 8 2360 616 80 0
57815 2 530 51980 1023 4280 9 2754 1324 155 37
55655 2 0 49180 1024 5449 9 2926 2191 238 86
47328 1 0 40100 1186 6041 9 3069 2463 345 155
41544 3 0 32670 2217 6654 9 3253 2669 457 267
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
18273 9574 31704 48979 -17275 -23799 792
17142 8921 33609 60332 -26723 -26370 980
35442 8222 42777 62222 -19446 -17191 1626
38390 8313 48868 62643 -13775 -20941 1573
34250 7268 46283 60536 -14252 -21488 1389
37860 9105 47209 61512 -14304 -19798 325
38982 9320 46960 61195 -14235 -18415 -89
46506 10106 45775 59946 -14171 -10559 -176
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
67955 9206 25308 30810 881 792 959
74528 9098 28142 34085 1036 980 1187
77042 8035 29610 34711 1013 1626 2048
82479 8190 33527 35324 1031 1573 2834
78384 7269 31434 33412 1017 1389 3862
79420 9106 31484 32182 1023 325 5298
78480 9322 30802 30765 1024 -89 6656
13.5 37.2 45.3 1.3 1.4
12.2 37.8 45.7 1.4 1.6
10.4 38.4 45.1 1.3 2.7
9.9 40.6 42.8 1.3 3.4
9.3 40.1 42.6 1.3 4.9
11.5 39.6 40.5 1.3 6.7
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
71824 5556
81054 6855
89599 7754
100235 8521
104437 8805
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
14646 5698 727 7651 570 0 0
17053 5900 917 9466 770 0 0
18277 5114 671 11071 1421 0 0
19614 4958 691 11913 2052 0 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
73390 69876 0 0 3514
84833 81133 0 11 3689
86509 83485 0 153 2870
91301 87803 0 436 3062
Energy Branch Consumption
5462
6320
5600
6665
5810
5795
5797
Non-Energy Uses
9775
9892
10307
13031
12949
12826
12341
42876
47727
50174
51639
50669
50888
50282
12542 9531 3010 9938 10012 10385
12675 8686 3989 11152 11463 12436
13753 9823 3930 10333 12229 13858
14929 10639 4291 10101 11495 15114
14508 10042 4466 10171 11305 14685
14446 9948 4497 10359 11316 14767
1651 12851 21244 6322 439 370 0
1415 14721 22515 7143 1568 364 0
1295 16512 21008 8421 2558 380 0
1515 17406 20335 8989 2981 413 0
1137 16692 19322 9174 3675 668 1
1188 16595 18518 9825 3835 925 2
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
-0.5
0.5
-0.8 0.5
-2.9 5.6
-5.0 -0.5 1.4 7.9 5.3 7.5 30.9 18.5
-6.7 0.6 0.0 4.2 -3.6 2.0 24.1 21.3
-1.1 0.1 5.9 0.0 2.2 13.5 11.6 129.9
-4.0 8.0 2.0 0.0 1.1 2.0 6.7 11.9
51212 9428 43950 58023 -14073 -3372 -196
6.8 -1.5 3.0 2.4
-0.3 -1.2 0.8 -0.3
1.3 2.5 0.1 0.1
2.8 0.1 -0.7 -0.5
7.5
-1.6
77471 10107 29412 29541 1186 -176 7401
75978 9430 27172 29298 2217 -196 8057
1.3 -1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 7.5 7.9
0.2 -1.0 0.6 -0.4 0.0 -1.6 6.6
0.0 2.5 -0.2 -0.8 0.1
-0.3 0.1 -1.2 -0.5 8.0
5.6
1.9
11.9 39.2 39.2 1.3 8.5
13.0 38.0 38.1 1.5 9.6
12.4 35.8 38.6 2.9 10.6
126316 10706
138830 12902
145932 13952
150252 14193
2.2 3.4
1.5 1.3
2.9 3.9
0.8 1.0
19102 4760 594 11392 2356 0 0
21547 6675 588 11461 2787 37 0
22032 6936 571 11505 2934 86 0
22795 7788 718 10873 3262 155 0
22679 7171 630 11074 3538 267 0
2.2 -1.1 -0.8 3.8 9.6
0.4 -0.7 -1.2 0.3 5.2
1.4 3.8 -0.4 0.1 2.2
0.3 0.3 1.0 -0.4 1.9 11.9
84034 81008 256 494 2276
84457 81393 456 494 2114
82495 79366 605 494 2029
80777 77655 654 455 2014
78383 75347 680 388 1967
1.7 1.8
-0.3 -0.3
-2.0
12.4 -2.3
-0.2 -0.2 9.0 0.0 -1.1
-0.5 -0.5 1.2 -2.4 -0.3
5678
5473
0.2
0.4
0.0
-0.6
12166
12154
0.5
2.3
-0.5
-0.2
49128
47572
1.6
0.1
-0.1
-0.6
14058 9612 4446 10187 11103 14934
13724 9328 4396 9986 10785 14633
13360 9010 4350 9745 10476 13991
0.9 0.3 2.7 0.4 2.0 2.9
0.5 0.2 1.3 -0.2 -0.8 0.6
-0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.2
-0.5 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7
1200 16515 17105 10299 3942 1218 2
1114 15315 16578 10740 4044 1335 2
1065 13809 15684 11079 4490 1442 2
-2.4 2.5 -0.1 2.9 19.3 0.3
-1.3 0.1 -0.8 0.9 3.7 5.8
0.5 -0.1 -1.2 1.2 0.7 6.2 8.2
-1.2 -1.8 -0.9 0.7 1.3 1.7 -0.1
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
214.2
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
152.1 43.4 13.8 26.6 19.2 18.9 30.2 9.4 52.6
167.6 49.2 16.0 24.8 20.6 20.7 36.3 9.1
814
1169
3244
4750
6053
6717
7263
219.2 166.2 49.1 13.5 24.6 18.9 19.5 40.6 8.2 44.8
217.8 107.3 172.1 51.2 15.0 25.4 17.8 18.1 44.5 8.6 37.0
197.4 91.5 159.6 48.5 11.4 21.9 17.9 17.4 42.5 7.9 29.9
202.8 98.7 164.5 56.2 10.6 21.3 17.6 16.6 42.2 8.1 30.3
195.8 95.4 157.4 53.2 10.1 19.9 16.6 15.4 42.2 8.0 30.3
191.2 94.9 152.7 53.9 9.6 18.4 15.6 14.0 41.2 8.1 30.4
180.8 88.7 142.1 50.6 9.0 15.8 14.7 12.8 39.2 8.1 30.7
102.3
101.7
92.2
94.7
91.4
89.3
84.4
14.8
6.4
1.8
0.2
-1.0
0.9 1.2 -0.3 -0.8 -0.2 0.3 3.0 -1.4 -1.6
-0.4 -0.1 -1.7 -1.1 -0.5 -1.2 0.4 -0.4 -4.0
-0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.9 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -1.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1
-0.8 -0.7 -1.0 -0.5 -1.2 -2.3 -1.2 -1.9 -0.7 0.1 0.1
Source: PRIMES
104
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Netherlands: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
14.893 347.5 195.6 2.24 23.2
15.424 394.3 189.0 2.25 20.0
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
15.864 480.8 160.2 2.16 39.2
16.306 513.4 160.7 2.09 38.7
16.503 539.5 145.3 2.04 36.3
16.717 589.1 134.8 2.07 39.6
16.896 637.9 123.0 2.01 41.2
17.069 682.4 113.5 1.97 49.6
17.208 726.3 104.6 1.87 55.2
45.7 9.5
53.0 10.3
53.8 10.0
62.0 10.5
73.6 11.5
80.9 11.8
82.9 11.4
0.6 3.3 -2.0 -0.4
0.4 1.2 -1.0 -0.6
0.2 1.7 -1.6 -0.1
0.2 1.3 -1.6 -0.7
1.7
3.2
1.2
105.2 133.0 117.5 41.4 34.9
107.3 133.8 115.7 49.0 37.8
100.0 100.0 100.0 49.3 38.1
108.1 93.4 86.8 52.8 36.6
104.0 91.5 80.6 50.8 35.8
97.5 83.9 72.8 46.7 35.6
90.7 75.3 65.4 44.9 34.1
84.9 69.0 58.9 41.2 32.5
79.6 63.1 53.5 36.4 30.8
-0.5 -2.8 -1.6 1.8 0.9
0.4 -0.9 -2.1 0.3 -0.6
-1.4 -1.9 -2.1 -1.2 -0.5
-1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -2.1 -1.0
0.56 2.21 2.12 1.93 1.89 2.91
0.48 2.15 1.96 1.85 1.81 2.92
0.39 2.07 1.79 1.83 1.60 2.93
0.35 2.05 1.70 1.76 1.58 2.95
0.30 1.97 1.51 1.76 1.54 2.89
0.30 1.92 1.47 1.70 1.47 2.86
0.26 1.87 1.42 1.63 1.39 2.83
0.26 1.82 1.34 1.56 1.30 2.82
0.23 1.74 1.18 1.51 1.22 2.80
-3.4 -0.7 -1.7 -0.5 -1.7 0.1
-2.8 -0.5 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1
-1.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -0.2
-1.3 -0.8 -1.8 -0.7 -1.3 -0.1
1.6 0.1
2.2 0.1
6.3 2.6
9.2 4.6
11.9 6.2
13.5 6.9
15.0 7.5
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
89599 3925 23513 2380 55301 3500 142 829 8 0
100235 3996 22687 2698 62203 6463 88 2067 34 0
104437 3942 21513 2946 59752 8937 99 7160 87 0
126316 3967 33250 2937 59828 10677 99 15398 116 43
138830 3971 35217 2885 59705 11252 99 25472 124 105
145932 5096 39552 2121 57709 12430 99 28637 103 185
150252 9592 36127 1850 57580 13306 99 31031 170 497
1.5 0.0 -0.9 2.2 0.8 9.8 -3.6 24.1 27.0
2.9 0.1 5.1 -0.2 0.0 2.3 0.0 13.5 3.6
0.8 9.2 0.3 -4.3 -0.4 1.7 0.0 2.0 3.2 16.8
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
20559 504 494 39 442 13 0 19561 6017 0 4200 13732 776 853 0 0
23096 504 1331 37 1243 51 0 21261 5905 0 4200 14827 762 1473 0 0
26283 504 3212 37 3078 96 0 22566 8239 0 4186 15935 995 1451 0 0
31431 504 5740 37 5578 125 0 25186 8347 0 8133 14307 787 1954 0 5
33532 504 8782 37 8615 128 2 24246 8659 1005 8534 12857 786 2057 0 11
34187 589 9778 37 9632 107 2 23821 8880 1005 8534 12216 898 2152 0 21
35845 1108 10672 37 10397 177 61 24066 9101 1005 8534 12258 896 2343 0 35
2.5 0.0 20.6 -0.5 21.4 22.2
2.5 0.0 10.6 0.0 10.8 2.9
1.4 3.2
0.7 0.5
0.0 1.5 2.5 5.4
7.4 -2.1 -2.3 3.6
0.7 8.2 2.0 0.0 1.9 3.2 44.8 -0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.5 1.3 1.3
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
47.7
47.5
43.5
43.8
44.7
46.0
45.2
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
39.9 39.1 0.0 9.4 4.4 5.0
41.2 30.8 0.0 12.6 4.0 8.6
41.9 42.7 0.0 19.4 3.8 15.6
42.6 36.3 0.0 24.0 3.1 20.8
42.6 33.4 4.7 29.5 2.9 26.7
42.3 31.5 6.1 31.9 3.5 28.4
41.4 31.8 6.9 36.4 6.4 30.0
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
11.9
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
172.2 13.0 138.6 12.3 7.0 1.2
172.3 12.0 133.0 17.7 8.5 1.0
184.4 11.3 143.3 16.1 13.0 0.7
194.8 11.8 151.5 16.7 14.2 0.7
197.9 12.4 151.7 18.1 15.1 0.7
213.8 13.2 162.2 19.6 18.0 0.8
226.7 13.8 169.2 21.2 21.7 0.8
240.0 14.1 177.5 22.6 25.1 0.8
254.4 14.3 187.4 23.9 28.0 0.8
0.7 -1.4 0.3 2.7 6.3 -5.0
0.7 0.9 0.6 1.2 1.5 0.2
1.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 3.7 0.6
1.2 0.3 1.0 1.2 2.6 0.5
93.2 54.5 3.1 35.7
105.7 67.1 3.1 35.5
125.4 79.6 4.5 41.3
132.3 84.2 5.9 42.2
129.2 80.0 7.4 41.8
134.5 83.8 7.7 43.0
139.4 86.6 7.9 44.8
146.1 91.2 8.1 46.9
153.8 96.8 8.1 48.9
3.0 3.9 3.9 1.5
0.3 0.1 5.0 0.1
0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
1.0 1.1 0.2 0.9
10385 166 5237 2666 147 1608 560
12436 151 5553 3278 163 2589 702
13858 140 5491 4037 176 3343 672
15114 144 6371 4552 172 3670 206
14685 150 6117 4319 197 3698 204
14767 155 5868 4475 203 3857 209
14934 153 5668 4450 187 4260 216
14633 148 5358 4451 173 4280 223
13991 143 4946 4436 167 4068 231
2.9 -1.7 0.5 4.2 1.8 7.6 1.8
0.6 0.7 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.0 -11.2
0.2 0.2 -0.8 0.3 -0.6 1.4 0.5
-0.7 -0.7 -1.4 0.0 -1.1 -0.5 0.7
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
105
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Poland: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
99385 94459 179 2378 0 2369 139 2230 0 0 0
99403 91104 367 3169 0 4763 162 4600 0 0 0
80300 71298 1433 3313 0 4256 181 4072 0 0 3
79260 68876 1498 3884 0 5002 189 4792 12 0 9
69088 59068 750 3865 0 5405 195 5094 87 1 28
66603 55712 700 3440 0 6750 205 6363 126 9 49
67801 52821 700 3100 2817 8363 221 7819 215 27 81
67231 49038 650 2800 5094 9648 231 8957 294 51 115
66595 46066 600 2700 6738 10491 246 9653 375 82 135
-2.1 -2.8 23.1 3.4
-1.5 -1.9 -6.3 1.6
-0.2 -1.1 -0.7 -2.2
6.0 2.7 6.2
2.4 0.7 2.3 70.0 25.1
4.5 1.3 4.4 9.5 34.5 11.3
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
2306 -18913 14536 13196 1340 6773 -90
-11 -21202 15622 14112 1510 5810 -241
10262 -16309 20512 18949 1563 6607 -548
16911 -12755 22155 18362 3793 8531 -962
32448 -5382 27324 22682 4642 11192 -576
42317 -342 31119 25656 5463 12167 -442
45109 2088 31716 26086 5629 12025 -449
47968 4353 32146 26393 5753 12312 -498
47840 4686 31654 26105 5549 12422 -528
16.1
12.2
3.3
3.5 3.7 1.5 -0.2
2.9 1.8 11.5 5.4
1.5 1.4 1.9 0.7
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
100083 75405 13461 8938 0 -90 2369
100165 70500 16149 8995 0 -241 4763
90907 56358 20889 9960 0 -548 4249
93870 54918 22734 12235 0 -962 4946
101116 53686 27655 15057 0 -576 5295
108450 55370 31350 15607 0 -442 6565
112434 54910 31940 15125 2817 -449 8091
114723 53391 32319 15112 5094 -498 9304
113963 50752 31782 15122 6738 -528 10098
-1.0 -2.9 4.5 1.1
1.1 -0.5 2.8 4.2
1.1 0.2 1.5 0.0
0.1 -0.8 0.0 0.0 9.1
6.0
2.2
4.3
2.2
75.3 13.4 8.9 0.0 2.4
70.4 16.1 9.0 0.0 4.8
62.0 23.0 11.0 0.0 4.7
58.5 24.2 13.0 0.0 5.3
53.1 27.3 14.9 0.0 5.2
51.1 28.9 14.4 0.0 6.1
48.8 28.4 13.5 2.5 7.2
46.5 28.2 13.2 4.4 8.1
44.5 27.9 13.3 5.9 8.9
134591 24377
137017 30428
143148 27978
155331 28523
162746 30141
173065 31338
187136 34507
201069 37423
215830 40450
0.6 1.4
1.3 0.7
1.4 1.4
1.4 1.6
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
43419 41138 1235 673 372 0 0
36847 35842 405 488 114 0 0
35960 34793 228 783 157 0 0
38149 35942 179 1483 546 0 0
41083 37763 190 1479 1651 0 0
43197 39902 231 1342 1721 0 0
42995 39481 206 1500 1809 0 0
42347 38784 197 1445 1914 8 0
40951 37337 196 1356 2046 16 0
-1.9 -1.7 -15.6 1.5 -8.3
1.3 0.8 -1.8 6.6 26.6
0.5 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.9
-0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -1.0 1.2
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
37964 13269 0 9949 14746
33093 15062 0 5985 12045
34029 20074 0 4320 9635
32016 19789 47 3640 8541
34125 23597 363 3545 6620
36747 26532 654 3462 6099
37146 26945 943 3892 5366
37382 27192 1146 4234 4810
36898 26845 1292 4433 4329
-1.1 4.2
0.0 1.6
-8.0 -4.2
-2.0 -3.7
0.9 1.3 10.0 0.9 -2.1
-0.1 0.0 3.2 1.3 -2.1
Energy Branch Consumption
6808
7653
7263
7151
8573
8968
9084
9140
9008
0.6
1.7
0.6
-0.1
Non-Energy Uses
4218
3720
4319
4471
4708
5007
5071
5216
5414
0.2
0.9
0.7
0.7
59652
63525
55323
57854
64813
70690
73022
74704
74949
-0.8
1.6
1.2
0.3
25258 16252 9006 18126 8906 7362
22722 15428 7294 23284 9244 8275
18886 13373 5513 17519 9714 9204
16462 11186 5276 18377 10932 12083
17460 11360 6100 18767 11848 16738
18667 11803 6864 19374 12984 19664
19017 11738 7279 19725 13587 20693
19180 11564 7616 19877 14156 21491
19142 11558 7583 19836 14357 21614
-2.9 -1.9 -4.8 -0.3 0.9 2.3
-0.8 -1.6 1.0 0.7 2.0 6.2
0.9 0.3 1.8 0.5 1.4 2.1
0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.4
17066 9143 7987 8262 15563 1631 0
23299 11618 7735 7703 8763 4408 0
13728 14917 7447 8454 6886 3889 0
11350 17874 8400 9028 7056 4146 0
10261 21970 11522 9926 7907 3226 1
9994 25387 12231 10828 7784 4463 3
10176 25903 11428 11760 7994 5759 4
9601 26362 11141 12680 8260 6656 4
8724 26112 10881 13698 8525 7005 4
-2.2 5.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.8 9.1
-2.9 3.9 4.5 1.6 1.4 -1.9
-0.1 1.7 -0.1 1.7 0.1 6.0 12.1
-1.5 0.1 -0.5 1.5 0.6 2.0 0.5
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
-0.2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 9.1 2.3 1.1 2.1 5.7 11.6 5.2 0.6 8.4 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
440.8
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
332.3 209.3 5.8 44.0 33.1 19.4 20.6 17.7 90.8
330.9 169.9 12.7 59.9 44.4 20.8 23.2 18.0
3766
4290
4528
5871
7352
8507
9233
374.8 288.6 158.8 11.3 46.3 27.9 18.4 25.8 17.6 68.6
375.2 218.9 291.2 162.1 10.6 33.5 30.2 20.5 34.4 16.8 67.2
396.5 221.1 312.3 168.3 10.2 33.5 31.2 21.8 47.1 18.6 65.6
414.2 229.0 330.8 176.6 9.8 35.4 31.7 22.4 54.8 20.7 62.6
409.7 225.1 325.7 171.8 9.4 35.8 29.9 21.7 57.0 22.3 61.8
401.1 217.4 315.8 164.0 9.1 35.0 27.7 21.3 58.7 23.4 62.0
381.2 203.9 296.5 150.2 8.5 34.0 24.9 20.4 58.5 24.3 60.5
85.0
85.1
89.9
94.0
92.9
91.0
86.5
1.9
5.0
2.3
-1.6
0.6
-1.4 -2.7 6.9 0.5 -1.7 -0.5 2.3 -0.1 -2.8
0.8 0.6 -1.0 -3.2 1.1 1.7 6.2 0.6 -0.5
0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.8 0.7 -0.4 -0.1 1.9 1.8 -0.6
-0.7 -1.0 -0.9 -1.3 -1.0 -0.5 -1.8 -0.6 0.3 0.9 -0.2
Source: PRIMES
106
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Poland: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
38.038 144.7 691.6 3.32 2.3
38.581 161.3 620.9 3.30 0.0
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
38.654 210.0 432.9 3.17 11.3
38.174 244.4 384.1 3.10 18.0
38.092 298.1 339.2 3.09 32.0
38.068 353.9 306.4 3.05 38.9
37.960 406.1 276.9 2.90 40.0
37.612 464.5 247.0 2.75 41.6
36.975 515.8 220.9 2.60 41.8
31.5 15.0
39.8 16.3
47.7 16.0
58.6 16.5
74.3 18.3
86.6 18.6
93.3 18.1
0.2 3.8 -4.6 -0.4
-0.1 3.6 -2.4 -0.3
0.0 3.1 -2.0 -0.6
-0.3 2.4 -2.2 -1.1
4.2
4.5
2.3
200.8 182.3 130.3 22.8 25.3
177.4 177.4 119.8 27.4 27.2
100.0 100.0 100.0 24.9 29.2
67.2 91.0 98.0 26.7 32.1
56.2 79.4 88.9 27.6 34.1
49.6 69.5 79.8 27.1 34.0
45.2 60.7 71.7 26.8 33.3
41.6 53.2 64.1 26.4 32.7
39.7 47.2 57.4 25.8 31.6
-6.7 -5.8 -2.6 0.9 1.4
-5.6 -2.3 -1.2 1.1 1.6
-2.1 -2.7 -2.1 -0.3 -0.3
-1.3 -2.5 -2.2 -0.4 -0.5
0.62 1.96 1.74 1.83 2.18 2.80
0.67 2.33 2.64 1.90 2.25 2.80
0.67 2.14 2.45 1.59 1.89 2.81
0.65 2.05 2.03 1.64 1.87 2.85
0.59 2.06 1.92 1.66 1.84 2.81
0.58 2.04 1.89 1.64 1.73 2.79
0.54 1.98 1.88 1.52 1.60 2.75
0.49 1.91 1.83 1.39 1.51 2.73
0.42 1.84 1.77 1.26 1.42 2.70
0.8 0.9 3.5 -1.3 -1.4 0.0
-1.3 -0.4 -2.4 0.4 -0.3 0.0
-0.9 -0.4 -0.2 -0.9 -1.4 -0.2
-2.3 -0.7 -0.6 -1.9 -1.1 -0.2
6.5 0.1
7.1 0.5
6.7 2.7
8.0 4.1
9.7 5.6
10.9 6.6
11.8 7.4
143148 0 137226 911 2450 451 2106 5 0 0
155331 0 145736 759 4990 1510 2201 135 0 0
162746 0 148979 994 4995 4505 2263 1008 1 0
173065 0 159480 766 4443 4531 2379 1462 4 0
187136 11760 159386 266 5278 5373 2568 2495 10 0
201069 21546 162120 250 5154 5867 2682 3418 23 9
215830 28710 167841 427 5489 6085 2856 4361 42 18
1.3
1.4
0.8 0.9 7.4 25.9 0.7 70.0
0.7 -12.4 0.6 1.8 1.3 9.5 22.8
1.4 9.3 0.5 4.9 0.4 1.3 1.1 5.7 16.0
29565 0 813 809 4 0 0 28752 9348 0 27462 847 429 14 0 0
30959 0 1028 907 121 0 0 29931 9606 0 28152 1291 430 59 0 0
32474 0 1687 1014 672 1 0 30787 9771 0 28873 1208 430 276 0 0
32365 0 2024 1098 922 4 0 30340 8066 0 27782 1556 439 563 0 0
33340 1515 2727 1187 1530 10 0 29098 7948 610 25966 1753 391 988 0 0
35977 2776 3360 1203 2133 24 0 29841 8255 1238 26574 1741 274 1252 0 1
40667 3699 4003 1203 2756 44 0 32965 8505 2268 29459 1722 213 1568 0 2
0.9
0.3
7.6 2.3 66.9
4.9 1.6 8.6 22.3
0.7 0.4
-0.6 -2.0
0.5 3.6 0.0 34.6
-1.1 3.8 -0.9 13.6
1.3 0.7 14.0 1.3 -0.2 -5.9 4.7
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
50.3
52.4
52.3
56.0
58.4
57.8
54.7
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
33.7 17.6 0.0 1.8 0.0 1.8
34.5 18.3 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.5
33.4 17.8 0.0 4.8 0.0 4.8
33.7 18.2 0.0 4.8 0.0 4.8
34.1 18.6 3.6 11.9 6.3 5.6
35.2 20.1 6.6 16.7 10.7 6.0
37.8 18.5 10.9 19.5 13.3 6.2
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
2.0 9.3 3.9 0.1 6.1 16.0
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
186.5 46.3 83.4 55.4 0.9 0.4
182.3 34.0 115.2 31.6 1.2 0.3
217.1 31.7 153.6 28.8 2.8 0.2
257.8 29.3 201.2 22.3 4.8 0.2
323.6 28.3 262.6 24.8 7.6 0.2
378.2 29.5 310.3 27.4 10.8 0.2
412.2 31.4 338.3 29.4 12.8 0.2
442.6 33.7 360.8 31.6 16.2 0.2
464.7 35.3 375.5 33.2 20.4 0.3
1.5 -3.7 6.3 -6.3 12.4 -6.3
4.1 -1.1 5.5 -1.5 10.7 -0.6
2.5 1.1 2.6 1.7 5.3 1.3
1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 4.8 0.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
122.9 40.3 81.6 1.0
120.3 51.2 68.2 0.9
130.2 75.0 54.0 1.2
162.1 111.8 50.0 0.3
228.4 172.5 55.5 0.4
276.9 210.8 65.6 0.4
290.6 219.3 70.8 0.4
300.2 223.9 75.8 0.5
304.0 223.8 79.7 0.5
0.6 6.4 -4.0 1.3
5.8 8.7 0.3 -11.4
2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5
0.5 0.2 1.2 1.4
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
7362 421 3435 2111 1099 196 99
8275 307 4241 2659 669 371 29
9204 276 4687 3326 540 369 6
12083 254 6248 4792 468 319 2
16738 244 8146 7343 507 497 2
19664 248 9271 8895 584 664 2
20693 253 9961 9139 572 765 3
21491 257 10519 9316 558 838 3
21614 262 10657 9200 471 1021 3
2.3 -4.1 3.2 4.6 -6.9 6.5 -24.3
6.2 -1.3 5.7 8.2 -0.6 3.0 -9.9
2.1 0.4 2.0 2.2 1.2 4.4 1.7
0.4 0.3 0.7 0.1 -1.9 2.9 0.8
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
107
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Portugal: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
3396 115 0 0 0 3281 787 2479 0 11 3
3321 0 0 0 0 3321 717 2550 1 15 37
3826 0 0 0 0 3826 974 2770 14 18 49
3583 0 0 0 0 3583 407 2936 152 23 66
4652 0 0 0 0 4652 892 2950 589 66 154
4972 0 0 0 0 4972 937 2955 753 172 155
5251 0 0 0 0 5251 941 3023 876 256 155
5723 0 0 0 0 5723 959 3293 977 328 167
6448 0 0 0 0 6448 925 3358 1342 572 250
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
15122 2789 12329 11319 1011 0 3
18012 3797 14137 13603 534 0 79
21881 3913 15848 12231 3618 2039 80
24414 3223 16711 13637 3073 3893 587
20967 2319 13740 12411 1329 4220 542
21046 2256 13771 12440 1330 4074 564
20930 2181 13616 12380 1236 4035 626
20914 2103 13416 12299 1117 4128 709
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
17508 2580 11644 0 0 3 3281
20469 3493 13576 0 0 79 3321
25078 3803 15335 2034 0 80 3826
27035 3347 15768 3751 0 587 3583
25036 2319 13157 4220 0 542 4797
25412 2256 13164 4074 0 564 5354
25562 2181 12997 4035 0 626 5723
14.7 66.5 0.0 0.0 18.7
17.1 66.3 0.0 0.0 16.2
15.2 61.1 8.1 0.0 15.3
12.4 58.3 13.9 0.0 13.3
9.3 52.6 16.9 0.0 19.2
8.9 51.8 16.0 0.0 21.1
28350 4441
33148 4776
43364 5363
46180 5983
46349 5692
4304 2027 2105 19 149 3 0
5493 2919 2371 18 148 37 0
6508 3198 1671 1234 356 49 0
8007 3319 1885 2309 430 65 0
11443 11111 0 0 332
14111 13635 0 16 460
12911 12462 0 0 449
655
960
2113
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
1.2
2.0
1.2
2.1
1.5 2.1 1.1 66.9 5.4 31.4
2.0 -0.9 0.6 44.9 13.6 12.1
1.2 0.5 0.2 4.0 14.5 0.1
2.1 -0.2 1.1 4.4 8.4 4.9
20329 1613 13227 12216 1011 4218 692
3.8 3.4 2.5 0.8 13.6
-0.4 -5.1 -1.4 0.1 -9.5 7.5 21.1
0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -0.4 1.4
-0.3 -3.0 -0.3 -0.1 -2.0 0.4 1.0
26004 2103 12783 4128 0 709 6282
26125 1613 12575 4218 0 692 7026
3.7 4.0 2.8
0.0 -4.8 -1.5 7.6
0.2 -0.6 -0.1 -0.4
0.2 -3.0 -0.3 0.4
38.1 1.5
21.1 2.3
1.4 1.8
1.0 2.1
8.5 50.8 15.8 0.0 22.4
8.1 49.2 15.9 0.0 24.2
6.2 48.1 16.1 0.0 26.9
50371 6297
54603 6991
59551 8391
65860 9873
4.3 1.9
0.7 0.6
1.7 2.1
1.9 3.5
6198 2314 551 2478 704 151 0
6301 2251 466 2355 1078 151 0
6634 2177 432 2348 1527 151 0
7074 2099 232 2655 1927 161 0
6675 1610 160 2690 1971 244 0
4.2 4.7 -2.3 51.6 9.1 31.4
-0.5 -3.2 -10.5 7.2 7.1 11.8
0.7 -0.6 -2.4 -0.5 8.1 0.0
0.1 -3.0 -9.5 1.4 2.6 4.9
13785 13785 0 0 0
12848 12694 154 0 0
12960 12702 258 0 0
12959 12623 336 0 0
12920 12522 397 0 0
12854 12431 422 0 0
1.2 1.2
0.0 0.2
0.1 -0.1 8.1
-0.1 -0.2 2.3
1025
1101
898
880
859
902
946
4.6
-1.3
-0.4
1.0
1891
2364
2429
2182
2228
2264
2290
2392
1.1
-0.8
0.4
0.6
11813
13789
17694
18723
18125
18628
19031
19399
19784
4.1
0.2
0.5
0.4
4728 3073 1656 2290 1055 3740
4974 3350 1625 2569 1377 4869
6244 4092 2151 2804 2105 6542
5689 3767 1922 3206 2773 7055
5004 3010 1994 3192 2622 7307
4887 2881 2006 3357 2785 7599
4955 2848 2107 3455 2869 7752
5077 2834 2243 3532 2957 7832
5419 2960 2459 3565 3016 7784
2.8 2.9 2.7 2.0 7.1 5.8
-2.2 -3.0 -0.8 1.3 2.2 1.1
-0.1 -0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6
0.9 0.4 1.6 0.3 0.5 0.0
617 6700 103 2024 28 2341 0
546 8215 97 2477 36 2417 0
465 10509 853 3299 134 2433 0
16 10561 1307 3983 328 2529 0
5 9637 1682 3980 375 2444 1
5 9714 1663 4295 604 2346 1
4 9582 1635 4662 1073 2074 1
4 9574 1423 5051 1299 2046 1
3 9379 1480 5451 1376 2093 1
-2.8 4.6 23.6 5.0 16.8 0.4
-35.9 -0.9 7.0 1.9 10.8 0.0
-2.6 -0.1 -0.3 1.6 11.1 -1.6 9.9
-2.9 -0.2 -1.0 1.6 2.5 0.1 -0.2
3559
3886
4526
4815
5120
5661
6409
2.4
1.2
2.3
83.4
74.2 31.4 51.6 16.7 2.2 5.6 2.2 3.6 21.3 6.6 16.0
73.5 30.4 50.9 15.9 2.1 5.3 2.2 3.5 21.9 6.6 16.0
72.1 30.1 49.9 15.4 2.0 5.0 2.1 3.2 22.1 6.6 15.6
71.6 30.1 49.1 15.2 1.9 4.7 2.0 3.0 22.2 6.7 15.8
64.5 23.8 41.8 8.6 1.8 4.7 2.0 2.8 21.9 7.0 15.7
3.5
-1.2
58.7 20.9 2.5 10.7 2.0 3.2 19.4 6.6 18.1
89.3 42.1 61.8 24.5 2.6 7.1 2.3 4.3 21.0 7.8 19.7
4.2 3.5 5.3 2.6 2.0 5.4 5.8 4.1 1.4
-1.3 -2.2 -1.4 -6.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.1 -1.2
-0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -0.4 -1.0 0.4 0.0 -0.2
-1.1 -2.3 -1.7 -5.7 -1.2 -0.5 -0.6 -1.3 -0.1 0.6 0.1
140.7
150.5
125.2
123.9
121.6
120.7
108.8
38.1
3.1
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
59.3 39.1 14.8 1.5 8.2 1.6 1.9 11.1 4.4 15.8 100.0
48.6 19.2 2.4 8.4 1.9 2.2 14.4 5.9
Source: PRIMES
108
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Portugal: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
9.996 102.0 171.7 2.23 83.5
10.018 116.9 175.1 2.37 86.0
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
10.195 142.8 175.7 2.34 85.0
10.529 149.1 181.3 2.29 88.4
10.723 147.9 169.3 2.06 81.8
10.947 162.4 156.5 2.00 80.9
11.108 179.6 142.3 1.95 79.9
11.224 198.7 130.9 1.89 78.5
11.317 221.5 118.0 1.60 75.9
17.9 12.6
20.9 14.0
22.2 15.0
25.8 15.9
31.0 17.2
34.9 17.6
37.1 16.7
0.2 3.4 0.2 0.5
0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.3
0.4 2.0 -1.7 -0.5
0.2 2.1 -1.9 -2.0
2.2
3.4
1.8
82.1 121.8 70.3 40.1 45.1
95.7 112.4 77.9 44.2 53.4
100.0 100.0 100.0 40.9 66.8
93.4 106.5 121.4 40.3 61.4
88.5 109.0 111.2 39.3 61.3
82.3 103.9 105.7 36.3 60.9
77.6 95.7 96.7 34.3 58.5
72.4 89.3 88.8 32.2 55.5
70.2 81.8 80.0 29.5 52.1
2.0 -2.0 3.6 0.2 4.0
-1.2 0.9 1.1 -0.4 -0.9
-1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.3 -0.5
-1.0 -1.6 -1.9 -1.5 -1.1
0.52 1.93 1.74 0.71 1.77 2.96
0.57 1.95 1.68 0.74 1.62 2.96
0.47 1.99 1.71 0.71 1.51 2.97
0.49 1.85 1.25 0.70 1.53 2.98
0.33 1.81 1.12 0.70 1.36 2.92
0.28 1.77 1.08 0.67 1.25 2.88
0.23 1.70 1.00 0.62 1.12 2.86
0.20 1.65 0.93 0.58 1.02 2.83
0.10 1.59 0.87 0.56 0.94 2.82
-1.0 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -1.6 0.1
-3.4 -1.0 -4.1 -0.2 -1.0 -0.2
-3.5 -0.6 -1.1 -1.2 -1.9 -0.2
-7.6 -0.7 -1.3 -0.9 -1.8 -0.1
19.6 0.2
20.2 0.2
24.3 2.7
25.1 4.3
26.1 5.5
28.3 6.5
31.2 7.1
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
43364 0 15643 7769 7229 1153 11321 168 1 80
46180 0 15647 8912 13599 1410 4730 1773 3 105
46349 0 10758 2886 13010 2063 10371 6853 194 215
50371 0 10463 2432 11885 4712 10892 8758 996 233
54603 0 10121 2193 12202 6971 10947 10180 1562 426
59551 0 9759 1143 14633 8835 11146 11360 1923 751
65860 0 8731 871 15291 9054 10761 15601 4321 1231
0.7
1.7
1.9
-3.7 -9.4 6.1 6.0 -0.9 44.9 69.3 10.4
-0.6 -2.7 -0.6 12.9 0.5 4.0 23.2 7.1
-1.5 -8.8 2.3 2.6 -0.2 4.4 10.7 11.2
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
10360 0 3967 3883 83 1 0 6393 1640 0 1889 1383 2795 312 0 14
13096 0 5488 4422 1064 2 0 7607 1845 0 1903 2589 2730 372 0 14
17405 0 8490 4499 3832 156 2 8915 2271 0 1855 3923 2727 387 0 24
20172 0 10133 4622 4803 696 12 10039 2431 0 1807 5512 2181 515 0 24
20699 0 11387 4676 5508 1091 112 9312 2525 0 1807 5253 1420 807 0 24
21216 0 12378 4676 6084 1343 274 8838 2927 0 1421 5340 947 1105 0 25
24270 0 15221 4781 7600 2366 473 9049 2960 654 1222 5744 903 1143 0 36
5.3
1.7
1.6
7.9 1.5 46.7 65.7 3.4 3.3
3.0 0.4 3.7 21.5 47.8 0.4 1.1
2.9 0.2 3.3 8.0 15.5 -0.3 1.6
-0.2 11.0 -0.2 2.2
-0.3 3.0 -6.3 7.6
-3.8 0.9 -4.4 3.5
5.5
0.0
4.2
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
46.1
38.9
29.6
27.8
29.3
30.8
29.4
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
42.1 10.6 0.0 29.3 0.0 29.3
42.6 12.2 0.0 17.4 0.0 17.4
40.1 21.9 0.0 42.5 0.0 42.5
40.5 25.7 0.0 50.8 0.0 50.8
41.1 27.2 0.0 55.1 0.0 55.1
42.1 30.7 0.0 57.1 0.0 57.1
44.1 28.2 10.1 62.2 0.0 62.2
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
56.9 10.3 33.3 6.3 6.7 0.3
67.3 11.3 41.9 5.3 8.5 0.2
91.5 11.8 59.2 4.6 15.7 0.3
105.0 11.1 72.0 4.7 17.0 0.3
110.8 10.8 75.4 5.0 19.2 0.3
121.1 11.2 80.9 5.5 23.2 0.3
130.4 11.8 86.0 6.0 26.3 0.3
140.8 12.3 91.0 6.5 30.7 0.3
152.0 12.8 96.6 7.1 35.2 0.3
4.9 1.4 5.9 -3.2 8.9 0.2
1.9 -0.9 2.4 1.0 2.1 1.0
1.6 0.8 1.3 1.7 3.2 0.5
1.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 3.0 0.4
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
32.3 28.9 1.5 1.9
35.4 32.0 2.0 1.4
41.9 38.9 2.2 0.8
46.0 42.6 2.4 1.0
48.2 44.7 2.5 1.0
52.7 48.9 2.8 1.0
56.1 51.9 3.0 1.1
59.5 55.1 3.2 1.2
63.4 58.8 3.4 1.3
2.6 3.0 4.1 -7.9
1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
3740 82 1573 1384 83 574 44
4869 95 2209 1817 81 620 47
6542 114 2788 2718 88 790 44
7055 113 3200 2769 66 881 26
7307 109 3219 2899 66 987 27
7599 110 3113 3144 68 1136 28
7752 110 3081 3216 67 1250 29
7832 108 3058 3237 66 1334 30
7784 107 2945 3255 55 1390 31
5.8 3.3 5.9 7.0 0.6 3.2 0.0
1.1 -0.4 1.4 0.6 -2.9 2.3 -4.9
0.6 0.1 -0.4 1.0 0.1 2.4 0.9
0.0 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 -1.9 1.1 0.6
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
109
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Romania: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
41415 7935 7963 22911 0 2606 1460 1146 0 0 0
32618 7886 7124 14446 0 3162 1435 1726 0 0 0
28816 5875 6434 10968 1407 4131 1271 2854 0 0 7
28180 5793 6183 9701 1433 5070 1737 3314 0 0 18
27530 5757 4790 8869 2906 5208 1548 3589 34 6 31
28866 6401 5100 8500 2906 5958 1760 3929 128 43 97
30203 5941 5000 8231 4365 6665 2053 4146 191 142 134
31052 4890 4950 8200 5783 7229 2143 4478 240 199 168
31237 4826 4794 7922 5783 7912 2191 5052 274 213 181
-3.6 -3.0 -2.1 -7.1
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
22567 4615 11209 16126 -4917 5928 815
14552 2870 6862 8760 -1898 4794 26
8116 1905 3560 4870 -1311 2712 -60
10814 2904 3970 8851 -4882 4190 -250
11581 1899 6200 10984 -4784 3877 -342
12543 1929 7106 12328 -5223 4159 -573
12598 1972 7341 12612 -5271 4027 -652
12430 1792 7359 12624 -5264 4047 -663
11832 1664 7101 12275 -5174 3910 -671
-9.7 -8.5 -10.8 -11.3
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
63714 12318 19136 28838 0 815 2606
47138 10793 13917 19240 0 26 3162
37131 7753 10214 13680 1407 -60 4137
39242 8769 10321 13942 1433 -250 5026
39111 7656 10990 12746 2906 -342 5155
41409 8330 12206 12659 2906 -573 5881
42802 7913 12341 12258 4365 -652 6576
43482 6681 12309 12247 5783 -663 7123
43069 6490 11895 11832 5783 -671 7740
19.3 30.0 45.3 0.0 4.1
22.9 29.5 40.8 0.0 6.7
20.9 27.5 36.8 3.8 11.1
22.3 26.3 35.5 3.7 12.8
19.6 28.1 32.6 7.4 13.2
20.1 29.5 30.6 7.0 14.2
18.5 28.8 28.6 10.2 15.4
15.4 28.3 28.2 13.3 16.4
15.1 27.6 27.5 13.4 18.0
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
63398 14858
59255 13101
51925 9963
59402 9773
61558 9848
69947 10477
76342 10719
81219 10805
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
23517 8166 6202 9113 36 0 0
16474 7352 2996 6090 37 0 0
10637 5442 1683 3507 4 0 0
10103 5982 775 3343 3 0 0
9131 5799 464 2489 379 0 0
9921 6492 451 2515 441 23 0
8618 5641 398 2109 448 23 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
25114 23765 0 496 853
21082 15691 0 1902 3489
14984 11396 0 1739 1850
18111 15142 0 825 2144
18276 15774 59 953 1489
19711 17428 119 760 1404
3579
5328
4163
4205
4109
922
1401
2048
2469
2399
37257
26634
22460
24613
25111 15699 9412 4548 3181 4416
14854 10577 4278 6353 2358 3069
9051 6223 2828 8426 1587 3396
3026 8055 20495 4690 377 612 0
1586 5519 10249 3126 4679 1476 0
977 5310 6885 2916 3570 2802 0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
16.5
0.9 0.3 0.4 -0.7 4.2 2.5 2.9 1.5 18.9 36.9 15.8
0.3 -2.1 -0.4 -0.4 2.9 1.7 0.7 2.0 3.7 4.1 3.1
3.6 0.0 5.7 8.5
0.8 0.4 1.7 1.4
-0.6 -1.7 -0.3 -0.3
-7.5
3.6
0.4
-0.3
-5.3 -4.5 -6.1 -7.2
0.5 -0.1 0.7 -0.7 7.5
0.9 0.3 1.2 -0.4 4.2
0.1 -2.0 -0.4 -0.4 2.9
4.7
2.2
2.5
1.6
84943 12259
-2.0 -3.9
1.7 -0.1
2.2 0.9
1.1 1.4
7531 4578 331 2134 465 23 0
7610 4558 428 2072 530 23 0
-7.6 -4.0 -12.2 -9.1 -19.0
-1.5 0.6 -12.1 -3.4 56.3
-0.6 -0.3 -1.5 -1.6 1.7
-1.2 -2.1 0.7 -0.2 1.7 0.0
19835 17612 169 680 1374
19782 17574 271 714 1223
19243 17070 404 714 1056
-5.0 -7.1
2.0 3.3
13.4 8.0
-5.8 -2.1
0.8 1.1 11.1 -3.3 -0.8
-0.3 -0.3 9.1 0.5 -2.6
4309
4297
4207
4165
1.5
-0.1
0.4
-0.3
2203
2047
1850
1636
8.3
1.6
-1.6
-2.2
24884
27053
28708
29490
29420
-4.9
1.0
1.4
0.2
9904 7109 2795 7964 2524 4221
9032 6168 2864 7894 2911 5047
9443 6090 3353 8128 3333 6148
10179 6304 3875 8103 3559 6867
10553 6220 4333 7911 3700 7326
10332 5741 4591 7663 3758 7666
-9.7 -8.8 -11.3 6.4 -6.7 -2.6
0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 6.3 4.0
1.2 0.2 3.1 0.3 2.0 3.1
0.1 -0.9 1.7 -0.6 0.5 1.1
1569 6606 7721 3337 2135 3244 0
1097 7173 7574 3528 2319 3192 0
1125 8336 7863 3951 2254 3523 1
1595 8680 8000 4390 2192 3850 1
1508 8894 7975 4810 2065 4236 2
1422 8957 7383 5023 1933 4699 2
-10.7 -4.1 -10.3 -4.6 25.2 16.4
1.2 3.1 1.0 1.9 -4.2 1.3 7.1
3.8 1.9 0.5 2.2 -0.6 1.9 13.1
-1.1 0.3 -0.8 1.4 -1.2 2.0 1.6
4.7 -1.4 9.5
-0.5 -0.2 -2.9 -2.1 7.5 2.3 2.0 2.3
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
262.9
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
168.7 76.4 6.2 58.1 8.8 6.8 12.3 23.2 71.0
115.1 59.2 7.6 31.3 5.2 3.1 8.6 18.5
4118
4599
4914
5518
6231
6779
7421
138.2 84.8 40.6 7.4 18.8 6.6 1.9 9.7 13.1 40.3
150.5 79.5 90.3 37.2 7.9 21.5 7.2 4.4 12.2 16.3 43.9
140.7 68.7 85.7 33.6 7.7 17.2 7.3 5.4 14.5 14.1 40.9
145.6 69.5 92.5 36.1 7.9 17.6 7.3 6.1 17.6 14.0 39.1
143.9 66.2 90.8 31.2 7.7 19.0 7.4 6.0 19.5 15.4 37.8
138.2 61.0 85.8 26.3 7.5 18.4 7.3 5.9 20.5 16.2 36.2
129.0 51.3 76.8 19.5 7.0 16.2 7.3 5.8 21.0 15.4 36.8
52.5
57.2
53.5
55.4
54.7
52.6
49.1
1.8
2.4
1.8
-6.2
0.2
-6.6 -6.1 1.7 -10.7 -2.9 -12.2 -2.4 -5.5 -5.5
0.1 -1.9 0.5 -0.9 1.1 11.3 4.1 0.7 0.2
0.2 -0.4 0.6 -0.7 0.0 1.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 0.9 -0.8
-1.1 -2.5 -1.7 -4.6 -1.0 -1.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.8 0.0 -0.3
Source: PRIMES
110
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Romania: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
23.211 71.6 889.4 2.65 35.4
22.712 64.5 731.4 2.44 30.9
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
22.455 60.4 614.4 2.28 21.9
21.659 79.8 491.7 2.30 27.6
21.334 93.8 416.8 2.19 29.6
21.103 115.4 358.8 2.23 30.3
20.834 135.0 317.0 2.12 29.4
20.484 151.7 286.7 1.97 28.6
20.049 166.1 259.2 1.78 27.5
11.1 18.3
15.8 19.8
17.4 18.6
23.1 20.0
30.2 22.4
35.1 23.1
37.9 22.8
-0.3 -1.7 -3.6 -1.5
-0.5 4.5 -3.8 -0.4
-0.2 3.7 -2.7 -0.3
-0.4 2.1 -2.0 -1.7
4.6
5.7
2.3
200.0 50.5 186.9 16.3 37.3
171.9 69.0 138.7 20.1 36.8
100.0 100.0 100.0 28.4 34.8
81.4 58.9 121.7 21.4 30.6
71.0 48.8 110.4 22.0 31.5
60.7 41.1 100.5 22.3 31.9
54.4 36.0 89.0 22.4 31.4
48.5 31.8 79.5 22.1 30.6
43.4 28.8 70.6 21.3 30.3
-6.7 7.1 -6.1 5.7 -0.7
-3.4 -6.9 1.0 -2.5 -1.0
-2.6 -3.0 -2.1 0.2 0.0
-2.2 -2.2 -2.3 -0.5 -0.4
1.12 2.31 2.32 1.94 2.13 2.79
0.43 1.81 2.11 0.83 1.33 2.81
0.39 1.64 2.07 0.78 1.17 2.85
0.39 1.84 2.17 0.90 1.73 2.89
0.33 1.78 1.90 0.92 1.86 2.87
0.33 1.79 1.86 0.90 1.82 2.86
0.27 1.81 1.87 0.91 1.68 2.83
0.22 1.76 1.74 0.92 1.58 2.79
0.16 1.71 1.57 0.96 1.55 2.74
-10.1 -3.4 -1.1 -8.7 -5.8 0.2
-1.4 0.8 -0.9 1.7 4.7 0.1
-2.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -1.0 -0.1
-4.9 -0.5 -1.8 0.5 -0.8 -0.3
17.0 1.5
17.6 1.0
18.6 2.2
19.3 3.0
20.6 3.7
21.9 5.1
24.0 6.8
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
51925 5455 18913 3398 9373 10 14775 0 0 0
59402 5554 21922 1894 9822 7 20203 0 0 0
61558 11592 21537 1149 7742 1138 18003 394 5 0
69947 11592 24281 1101 9629 1301 20466 1492 58 26
76342 17684 22065 986 8003 1373 23869 2220 116 26
81219 23775 17786 914 9344 1483 24923 2787 180 26
84943 23775 19632 1194 9130 2273 25477 3192 244 26
1.7 7.8 1.3 -10.3 -1.9 60.6 2.0
2.2 4.3 0.2 -1.5 0.3 1.9 2.9 18.9 37.5
1.1 3.0 -1.2 1.9 1.3 5.2 0.7 3.7 7.7 0.0
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
21880 667 6154 6154 0 0 0 15058 3742 0 8144 4299 2384 231 0 0
18732 663 6161 6160 1 0 0 11908 3305 0 6483 3584 1583 257 0 0
20417 1357 6563 6312 246 5 0 12497 3236 0 6667 4029 1550 252 0 0
21849 1368 7703 6717 926 60 0 12777 3236 0 7463 4043 1016 252 0 3
24452 2109 9082 7585 1376 121 0 13261 3218 0 8415 3615 975 252 0 3
22194 2844 9573 7661 1726 187 0 9778 2995 49 5568 3245 683 278 0 3
22072 2844 9890 7661 1976 253 0 9338 2936 843 5030 3185 683 437 0 3
-0.7 7.4 0.6 0.3
1.8 4.5 3.3 1.9 18.8 37.5
-1.0 3.0 0.9 0.1 3.7 7.7
-1.8 -1.4
0.6 -0.1
-3.4 -0.9
-2.0 -0.6 -4.2 0.9
2.4 -1.1 -4.5 0.0
-5.0 -1.3 -3.5 5.6
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
25.4
33.8
32.3
34.5
33.7
39.6
40.9
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
25.6 35.2 0.0 39.0 10.5 28.5
28.6 28.6 0.0 43.4 9.3 34.0
29.7 24.7 0.0 50.6 18.8 31.7
31.5 25.4 0.0 49.9 16.6 33.4
32.4 25.0 0.0 59.3 23.2 36.2
33.8 23.9 0.7 65.5 29.3 36.2
36.5 21.9 11.0 64.7 28.0 36.7
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
0.0
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
87.7 24.0 24.3 36.6 2.8 0.0
78.1 12.3 39.0 24.9 1.8 0.0
78.9 12.0 47.6 17.6 1.7 0.0
87.7 11.8 58.4 14.6 3.0 0.0
100.6 12.6 67.3 14.8 5.9 0.0
119.7 13.7 83.2 15.5 7.2 0.0
136.3 15.1 96.5 16.5 8.3 0.0
149.8 16.1 107.2 17.4 9.2 0.0
161.5 16.9 116.6 18.2 9.8 0.0
-1.1 -6.7 7.0 -7.0 -5.1 -6.7
2.5 0.5 3.5 -1.7 13.4 -2.2
3.1 1.8 3.7 1.1 3.4 0.8
1.7 1.1 1.9 1.0 1.7 0.1
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
80.0 29.0 48.9 2.1
40.7 19.7 17.9 3.1
33.3 14.3 16.4 2.6
76.5 51.5 16.6 8.4
89.8 63.3 17.0 9.4
109.0 79.0 19.1 10.9
121.3 87.6 21.5 12.2
131.1 94.3 23.5 13.3
139.8 100.6 25.1 14.1
-8.4 -6.8 -10.4 2.3
10.4 16.1 0.4 13.6
3.1 3.3 2.3 2.7
1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
4416 241 843 2463 282 275 312
3069 130 1133 1039 472 192 103
3396 120 1893 688 451 128 115
4221 97 1610 2140 209 113 51
5047 103 1832 2624 207 224 57
6148 110 2236 3248 218 271 65
6867 115 2596 3557 230 296 73
7326 117 2848 3736 247 301 78
7666 115 2974 3943 253 299 82
-2.6 -6.7 8.4 -12.0 4.8 -7.3 -9.5
4.0 -1.5 -0.3 14.3 -7.5 5.7 -6.8
3.1 1.1 3.6 3.1 1.1 2.8 2.5
1.1 0.0 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.1 1.3
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
111
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Slovak Republic: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
5249 1397 81 338 3105 328 162 166 0 0 0
4862 1017 128 264 2950 503 427 76 0 0 0
6074 1018 162 133 4255 506 406 100 0 0 0
6634 637 384 126 4573 914 399 507 1 0 8
5975 932 38 123 3610 1272 403 857 7 4 2
8269 932 40 132 5139 2025 434 1548 31 10 2
8566 969 41 138 5188 2230 440 1715 54 18 3
8910 1144 41 134 5152 2438 443 1888 76 27 4
9565 1156 40 137 5637 2596 446 2013 97 36 4
1.5 -3.1 7.2 -8.9 3.2 4.4 9.7 -5.0
-0.2 -0.9 -13.5 -0.7 -1.6 9.7 -0.1 24.0
3.7 0.4 0.8 1.1 3.7 5.8 0.9 7.2 23.2 17.4 7.1
1.1 1.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.8 1.5 0.1 1.6 5.9 7.1 2.5
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
16102 6055 4246 5916 -1670 5353 447
12344 4131 3565 5293 -1728 4528 119
11586 3437 2674 5310 -2636 5707 -232
12488 3737 3320 5433 -2114 5754 -281
12738 3262 4165 6491 -2326 5662 -166
12967 3255 4385 6823 -2439 6076 -174
13454 3338 4479 6973 -2495 6314 -215
13641 3771 4452 6940 -2488 6169 -340
13099 3400 4255 6681 -2426 6270 -424
-3.2 -5.5 -4.5 -1.1
1.0 -0.5 4.5 2.0
0.5 0.2 0.7 0.7
-0.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.4
0.6
-0.1
1.1
-0.1
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
20994 7771 4255 5088 3105 447 328
17748 5414 3543 5217 2950 119 504
17550 4261 2992 5776 4255 -232 498
19061 4231 3758 5921 4573 -281 858
18714 4194 4203 5785 3610 -166 1087
21235 4187 4425 6209 5139 -174 1450
22020 4307 4520 6452 5188 -215 1768
22551 4915 4493 6304 5152 -340 2028
22664 4555 4295 6407 5637 -424 2193
-1.8 -5.8 -3.5 1.3 3.2
0.6 -0.2 3.5 0.0 -1.6
1.6 0.3 0.7 1.1 3.7
0.3 0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.8
4.3
8.1
5.0
2.2
37.0 20.3 24.2 14.8 1.6
30.5 20.0 29.4 16.6 2.8
24.3 17.0 32.9 24.2 2.8
22.2 19.7 31.1 24.0 4.5
22.4 22.5 30.9 19.3 5.8
19.7 20.8 29.2 24.2 6.8
19.6 20.5 29.3 23.6 8.0
21.8 19.9 28.0 22.8 9.0
20.1 18.9 28.3 24.9 9.7
23428 5213
26036 5190
30431 5246
31346 3910
31993 3846
37033 4211
41246 4516
46595 5669
49652 6516
2.6 0.1
0.5 -3.1
2.6 1.6
1.9 3.7
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
3178 2054 243 882 0 0 0
3113 1835 119 1158 0 0 0
2551 1617 30 905 0 0 0
2478 1638 99 701 40 0 0
3510 2061 166 968 315 0 0
3167 1918 67 745 437 0 0
3656 2038 142 883 593 0 0
4589 2700 17 968 903 0 0
4512 2501 7 1077 927 0 0
-2.2 -2.4 -19.0 0.3
3.2 2.5 18.8 0.7
0.4 -0.1 -1.6 -0.9 6.6
2.1 2.1 -26.5 2.0 4.6
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
9061 6339 0 265 2458
8065 5263 0 743 2060
8153 5541 0 586 2026
9349 6388 11 717 2233
9422 6975 47 525 1875
10095 7351 89 799 1856
10340 7539 128 882 1791
10278 7508 145 931 1694
9859 7222 159 889 1588
-1.1 -1.3
1.5 2.3
8.3 -1.9
-1.1 -0.8
0.9 0.8 10.6 5.3 -0.5
-0.5 -0.4 2.1 0.1 -1.2
Energy Branch Consumption
1153
994
915
2194
2281
2357
2361
2311
2238
-2.3
9.6
0.3
-0.5
Non-Energy Uses
1375
886
1263
1244
1220
1453
1641
1700
1739
-0.8
-0.3
3.0
0.6
14791
10460
10285
10613
10913
12259
12822
12959
12871
-3.6
0.6
1.6
0.0
6728 3162 3566 2233 4384 1446
4088 2966 1122 1976 2980 1415
3816 3026 790 2586 2424 1459
4470 3645 825 2533 1815 1796
4118 3101 1017 2542 2011 2242
4564 3342 1222 2702 2401 2592
4703 3377 1325 2782 2617 2721
4675 3315 1360 2806 2762 2716
4581 3228 1353 2814 2826 2649
-5.5 -0.4 -14.0 1.5 -5.8 0.1
0.8 0.2 2.6 -0.2 -1.9 4.4
1.3 0.9 2.7 0.9 2.7 2.0
-0.3 -0.5 0.2 0.1 0.8 -0.3
4319 3324 4319 2013 648 166 0
2322 1636 3907 1868 722 4 0
1511 1725 4537 1893 619 1 0
1511 2191 3651 1965 951 344 0
1240 2477 3530 2131 1172 362 0
1375 2793 3739 2513 1380 459 0
1397 2857 3792 2805 1634 336 1
1385 2806 3690 3044 1717 316 1
1264 2691 3672 3158 1637 448 1
-10.0 -6.4 0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -42.8
-2.0 3.7 -2.5 1.2 6.6 89.0
1.2 1.4 0.7 2.8 3.4 -0.7 11.1
-1.0 -0.6 -0.3 1.2 0.0 2.9 -0.2
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
68.0 53.1 12.0 2.4 17.7 4.4 12.5 4.0 3.5 11.4 100.0
38.5 12.8 1.7 11.1 2.9 6.1 3.9 2.8
291
722
931
1203
1301
1631
1867
45.8 34.3 10.3 1.6 9.7 4.1 4.5 4.1 3.3 8.2
49.3 29.1 36.9 10.2 4.9 10.6 3.5 2.5 5.2 3.7 8.6
50.4 28.9 38.5 12.5 4.9 8.7 3.3 2.6 6.4 3.9 8.0
50.9 27.8 39.4 11.7 4.7 9.2 3.5 3.0 7.3 4.8 6.7
52.7 29.1 40.3 12.8 4.1 9.3 3.5 3.0 7.6 5.5 6.9
54.2 30.6 41.2 14.1 4.1 9.1 3.4 2.9 7.5 5.9 7.1
50.0 27.0 37.0 11.0 4.0 8.5 3.4 2.9 7.3 6.0 7.0
67.3
72.4
74.1
74.9
77.6
79.7
73.6
12.4
3.4
3.7
-3.9
1.0
-4.3 -1.5 -4.3 -5.8 -0.6 -9.8 0.1 -0.7 -3.2
1.2 1.9 12.1 -1.0 -2.1 -5.5 4.6 1.8 -0.2
0.5 0.1 0.5 0.3 -1.8 0.7 0.4 1.6 1.7 3.6 -1.6
-0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.5 -0.4 -1.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.9 0.3
Source: PRIMES
112
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Slovak Republic: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
5.288 26.2 801.4 2.53 76.7
5.356 25.6 692.4 2.17 69.6
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
5.399 30.3 579.5 1.95 66.0
5.385 38.5 495.2 1.94 65.5
5.407 48.2 388.4 2.06 68.1
5.427 61.0 347.9 1.86 61.1
5.432 73.3 300.5 1.83 61.1
5.402 82.8 272.4 1.82 60.5
5.332 91.9 246.7 1.63 57.8
6.4 21.2
7.5 19.4
8.0 16.7
10.6 17.3
13.6 18.6
15.7 18.9
16.7 18.1
0.2 1.5 -3.2 -2.6
0.0 4.8 -3.9 0.5
0.0 4.3 -2.5 -1.1
-0.2 2.3 -2.0 -1.2
2.3
5.4
2.0
201.8 87.6 206.5 16.3 19.9
135.7 95.0 152.1 19.2 22.2
100.0 100.0 100.0 22.0 23.8
69.1 77.6 61.4 21.9 28.7
50.3 70.3 56.9 22.2 31.1
41.7 59.1 50.9 22.3 31.9
35.8 52.0 45.6 22.3 30.8
32.6 46.7 41.5 21.8 29.2
30.7 42.1 37.0 20.5 27.6
-6.8 1.3 -7.0 3.1 1.8
-6.6 -3.5 -5.5 0.1 2.7
-3.3 -3.0 -2.2 0.1 -0.1
-1.5 -2.1 -2.1 -0.8 -1.1
0.37 2.61 2.63 1.96 2.86 2.80
0.34 2.29 2.72 1.47 2.04 2.74
0.25 2.18 2.54 1.59 1.85 2.81
0.22 2.05 2.37 1.39 1.36 2.89
0.25 1.93 2.12 1.31 1.27 2.86
0.20 1.88 2.02 1.30 1.23 2.83
0.19 1.82 1.98 1.26 1.14 2.79
0.19 1.77 1.95 1.21 1.05 2.76
0.15 1.71 1.85 1.21 1.02 2.74
-3.6 -1.8 -0.3 -2.1 -4.3 0.0
-0.2 -1.2 -1.8 -1.9 -3.7 0.2
-2.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -1.1 -0.3
-2.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -1.1 -0.2
2.7 0.7
6.5 1.0
8.2 2.6
9.4 3.9
9.7 5.3
11.9 6.1
13.7 6.8
30431 16491 5591 126 3498 0 4725 0 0 0
31346 17724 5514 441 2929 95 4637 7 0 0
31993 13996 6409 846 5000 974 4685 78 4 0
37033 20330 6482 347 3113 1342 5042 365 13 0
41246 20536 7090 747 4982 2114 5115 632 30 0
46595 21101 10552 84 5498 3265 5151 888 54 0
49652 23216 10902 27 5694 3414 5189 1123 86 0
0.5 -1.6 1.4 20.9 3.6
2.6 3.9 1.0 -1.2 0.0 8.1 0.9 23.2 22.8
1.9 1.2 4.4 -28.4 1.3 4.9 0.1 5.9 11.2
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
6775 2484 1620 1620 0 0 0 2671 491 0 1453 1138 81 0 0 0
7153 2605 1583 1578 5 0 0 2965 1043 0 1541 1191 182 50 0 0
6633 1859 1759 1686 69 4 0 3016 1296 0 1492 1290 184 50 0 0
8202 2721 2135 1797 325 14 0 3346 1402 0 1781 1299 185 81 0 0
8206 2735 2466 1863 572 31 0 3006 1734 0 1562 1103 185 155 0 0
8902 2748 2732 1863 812 56 0 3423 1791 126 1870 1159 162 232 0 0
10085 3016 2989 1863 1036 90 0 4080 1804 443 1972 1658 115 335 0 0
-0.2 -2.9 0.8 0.4
2.2 3.9 3.4 1.0 23.6 22.8
2.1 1.0 1.9 0.0 6.1 11.2
1.2 10.2
0.0 3.0
3.1 0.4
0.3 1.3 8.6
0.5 -1.6 0.1 11.9
2.4 4.2 -4.7 8.0
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
45.6
46.6
51.8
48.9
54.7
56.2
52.3
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
31.1 21.6 0.0 69.7 54.2 15.5
31.2 17.0 0.0 71.7 56.5 15.1
32.4 24.1 0.0 61.7 43.7 17.9
30.6 21.0 0.0 73.2 54.9 18.3
35.1 25.1 0.0 68.9 49.8 19.1
36.4 24.0 2.9 65.4 45.3 20.1
38.2 22.9 9.2 66.5 46.8 19.8
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
-0.1
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
42.7 19.8 16.0 6.8 0.0 0.0
37.6 14.4 18.4 4.6 0.1 0.0
37.2 9.3 24.4 3.2 0.2 0.0
39.0 8.5 26.4 2.6 1.5 0.0
42.9 8.8 29.9 2.6 1.7 0.0
47.6 9.0 33.6 2.6 2.3 0.0
51.4 9.2 36.5 2.8 2.9 0.0
54.4 9.4 38.5 2.9 3.7 0.0
57.3 9.5 40.4 3.0 4.4 0.0
-1.4 -7.3 4.3 -7.3
1.5 -0.6 2.1 -2.2 22.1
1.8 0.5 2.0 0.7 5.8
1.1 0.3 1.0 0.9 4.2
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
37.7 15.6 21.4 0.7
31.2 15.9 13.8 1.5
27.0 14.3 11.2 1.4
32.8 22.6 9.5 0.7
41.4 30.7 9.9 0.8
47.9 36.2 10.9 0.8
51.0 38.0 12.1 0.9
52.4 38.4 13.1 0.9
53.4 38.5 13.9 1.0
-3.3 -0.8 -6.2 6.6
4.4 7.9 -1.2 -5.8
2.1 2.2 2.0 1.6
0.5 0.1 1.4 0.9
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
1446 123 558 652 100 0 12
1415 88 579 566 119 40 24
1459 57 724 552 83 27 16
1796 51 759 888 49 39 9
2242 52 852 1235 51 43 9
2592 52 947 1474 53 56 10
2721 51 1022 1511 57 69 11
2716 50 1052 1462 61 80 11
2649 50 1029 1406 63 89 11
0.1 -7.4 2.6 -1.7 -1.9
4.4 -0.9 1.6 8.4 -4.8 4.8 -5.8
2.0 -0.2 1.8 2.0 1.2 4.9 1.5
-0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.7 1.0 2.6 0.8
3.1
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
113
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Slovenia: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
2902 1432 3 20 1192 254 254 0 0 0 0
3020 1216 2 16 1245 542 279 263 0 0 0
3085 1062 1 6 1228 788 330 458 0 0 0
3492 1184 0 3 1518 787 298 489 0 0 0
3657 1252 0 4 1557 845 338 502 0 6 0
4019 1505 0 0 1557 957 353 568 6 31 1
4221 1573 0 0 1557 1091 365 653 14 57 1
4801 745 0 0 2904 1152 366 690 20 74 1
4928 823 0 0 2904 1201 368 715 24 92 1
0.6 -2.9 -10.4 -11.4 0.3 12.0 2.7
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
2572 130 1804 598 1206 723 -85
3063 186 2239 589 1650 750 -142
3381 245 2430 151 2278 820 -114
3825 323 2604 0 2604 925 -28
4276 269 3075 1 3074 980 -58
4824 293 3546 1 3544 1073 -115
5248 373 3735 1 3734 1239 -135
4846 233 3645 1 3644 1153 -246
4586 216 3474 1 3473 1098 -270
2.8 6.5 3.0 -12.8 6.6 1.3
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
5523 1645 1754 763 1192 -85 254
6111 1402 2290 746 1245 -142 571
6427 1306 2393 826 1228 -114 788
7299 1539 2554 929 1518 -28 787
7904 1521 3046 984 1557 -58 855
8808 1798 3511 1073 1557 -115 983
9431 1946 3698 1239 1557 -135 1127
9607 978 3606 1153 2904 -246 1213
9473 1039 3434 1098 2904 -270 1269
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
29.8 31.8 13.8 21.6 4.6
22.9 37.5 12.2 20.4 9.3
20.3 37.2 12.8 19.1 12.3
21.1 35.0 12.7 20.8 10.8
19.2 38.5 12.5 19.7 10.8
20.4 39.9 12.2 17.7 11.2
20.6 39.2 13.1 16.5 11.9
10.2 37.5 12.0 30.2 12.6
11.0 36.2 11.6 30.7 13.4
12440 1584
12652 1497
13622 1662
15114 1943
16193 1965
18404 2244
20168 2385
22179 2400
1543 1296 155 92 0 0 0
1523 1315 119 90 0 0 0
1342 1253 12 62 15 0 0
1507 1411 9 58 30 0 0
1622 1431 2 147 42 0 0
1987 1702 7 165 114 0 0
2246 1849 2 274 120 0 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
596 542 0 53 1
582 505 0 76 1
253 170 0 83 0
90 1 0 89 0
93 1 39 53 0
175 1 106 68 0
Energy Branch Consumption
122
121
112
104
112
6
122
238
310
351
3373
3948
4440
4892
1469 729 740 853 122 930
1180 587 593 1180 259 1329
1424 840 585 1124 580 1312
243 1513 603 837 177 0 0
115 2106 468 807 192 260 0
97 2239 569 905 195 435 0
Annual % Change
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
1.7 1.7
1.4 2.3
1.6 -6.3
-4.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.9
0.0 2.6 0.8 2.7 26.2 28.1
6.4 1.0 0.1 0.9 5.2 4.9 4.1
2.4 0.9 2.4 -38.2 3.0 1.8
2.1 3.3 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.4
-1.3 -5.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -1.2
1.5 -2.3 3.2 0.8 0.3
2.1 1.5 2.4 1.8 2.4
1.8 2.5 2.0 2.3 0.0
0.0 -6.1 -0.7 -1.2 6.4
12.0
0.8
2.8
1.2
22930 2804
0.9 0.5
1.7 1.7
2.2 2.0
1.3 1.6
1272 886 6 232 148 0 0
1349 959 5 235 151 0 0
-1.4 -0.3 -22.8 -3.8
1.9 1.3 -15.5 9.0 10.5
3.3 2.6 -0.9 6.4 11.1
-5.0 -6.4 10.6 -1.6 2.3
225 1 173 50 0
315 1 212 102 0
343 1 238 103 0
-8.2 -11.0
-9.5 -38.9
4.7
-4.5
9.2 1.9 16.0 -0.5
4.3 -0.4 3.3 7.4
131
137
134
166
-0.9
0.0
2.1
1.9
406
446
465
468
43.8
4.0
2.4
0.5
5448
6167
6597
6576
6393
2.8
2.1
1.9
-0.3
1657 1038 619 1186 575 1475
1693 1046 647 1205 569 1981
1835 1149 686 1305 604 2423
1977 1248 730 1355 610 2655
1908 1201 707 1371 609 2688
1837 1152 685 1365 593 2598
-0.3 1.4 -2.3 2.8 16.9 3.5
1.7 2.2 1.0 0.7 -0.2 4.2
1.6 1.8 1.2 1.2 0.7 3.0
-0.7 -0.8 -0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.2
80 2404 665 1096 196 452 0
60 2857 655 1153 257 466 0
63 3283 695 1263 363 500 0
63 3450 753 1382 336 612 1
60 3334 679 1441 422 640 1
52 3153 630 1447 434 675 1
-8.8 4.0 -0.6 0.8 1.0
-4.7 2.5 1.4 2.5 2.8 0.7
0.5 1.9 1.4 1.8 2.7 2.8 11.9
-1.9 -0.9 -1.8 0.5 2.6 1.0 0.8
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
18.1 13.2 6.2 0.1 2.5 1.7 0.0 2.7 1.1 3.8 100.0
14.1 6.2 0.1 1.8 2.1 0.0 3.9 0.9
768
810
832
911
1093
1177
1230
18.6 14.0 5.5 0.1 2.3 1.3 1.0 3.8 0.9 3.7
20.1 9.0 15.3 6.2 0.0 2.3 1.4 1.0 4.3 1.1 3.7
21.3 8.8 16.7 6.4 0.0 2.2 1.5 0.9 5.8 1.1 3.5
24.1 10.2 19.3 7.6 0.0 2.3 1.6 1.0 6.9 1.2 3.5
25.6 11.2 20.8 8.4 0.0 2.5 1.6 0.9 7.4 1.4 3.4
20.8 7.1 16.3 4.4 0.0 2.0 1.6 0.9 7.4 1.4 3.2
18.9 5.7 14.4 3.2 0.0 1.8 1.5 0.9 7.0 1.4 3.1
102.8
110.8
117.6
133.1
141.2
115.1
104.4
0.8
2.8
1.2
0.3
1.4
0.6 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -2.5 47.0 3.5 -1.9 -0.4
1.8 1.4
1.8 2.5 2.2 2.8
-3.0 -6.5 -3.6 -9.1
-0.8 1.3 -0.1 4.3 1.8 -0.6
1.3 0.8 -0.1 2.5 2.1 -0.1
-3.1 -0.7 -1.0 -0.5 0.2 -1.0
Source: PRIMES
114
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Slovenia: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
1.996 20.0 276.7 2.39 46.6
1.989 19.4 315.3 2.30 50.1
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
1.988 24.0 267.9 2.18 52.6
1.998 28.7 254.2 2.09 52.3
2.034 32.7 241.6 2.12 53.9
2.053 38.4 229.5 2.20 54.5
2.058 44.0 214.3 2.20 55.4
2.047 48.2 199.5 1.69 50.2
2.023 50.7 186.8 1.52 48.2
3.6 15.0
3.9 13.6
4.8 14.8
6.2 16.2
7.9 17.9
8.9 18.4
9.2 18.1
0.0 1.9 -0.3 -0.9
0.2 3.1 -1.0 -0.3
0.1 3.0 -1.2 0.4
-0.2 1.4 -1.4 -3.6
3.0
5.0
1.6
109.1 99.0 27.6 33.4 22.8
109.6 123.5 54.1 45.5 56.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 38.5 42.7
92.4 92.2 82.4 32.6 41.9
82.7 85.2 72.6 32.1 46.1
76.8 79.3 65.0 31.2 47.0
73.2 71.5 57.1 30.3 45.2
67.1 65.3 51.6 27.5 43.2
63.9 60.7 47.0 24.6 40.6
-0.9 0.1 13.7 1.4 6.5
-1.9 -1.6 -3.2 -1.8 0.8
-1.2 -1.7 -2.4 -0.6 -0.2
-1.4 -1.6 -1.9 -2.1 -1.1
0.42 2.05 1.72 1.98 0.17 2.88
0.41 1.99 1.55 1.81 0.13 2.91
0.34 1.89 1.65 1.17 1.65 2.89
0.34 1.86 1.39 1.21 1.76 2.94
0.32 1.90 1.28 1.24 1.66 2.91
0.32 1.91 1.23 1.23 1.64 2.85
0.34 1.88 1.25 1.19 1.54 2.78
0.16 1.81 1.06 1.14 1.49 2.74
0.11 1.75 0.98 1.11 1.44 2.70
-2.0 -0.8 -0.4 -5.2 25.7 0.0
-0.7 0.0 -2.5 0.6 0.0 0.1
0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4
-10.5 -0.7 -2.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3
16.7 0.5
15.9 0.3
14.7 2.3
14.2 4.7
15.9 6.8
17.2 8.3
18.4 9.6
13622 4760 4630 40 313 45 3833 0 0 0
15114 5883 5314 34 324 100 3460 0 0 0
16193 6035 5179 9 869 171 3927 0 3 0
18404 6035 6738 19 897 529 4100 66 20 0
20168 6035 7501 8 1604 555 4249 167 48 0
22179 12480 3182 14 1281 645 4256 234 86 0
22930 12480 3777 13 1306 659 4283 278 135 0
1.7 2.4 1.1 -14.0 10.8 14.3 0.2
2.2 0.0 3.8 -0.8 6.3 12.5 0.8
1.3 7.5 -6.6 4.6 -2.0 1.7 0.1 5.2 10.9
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
2748 696 846 846 0 0 0 1206 453 0 948 223 17 17 0 0
3084 696 963 963 0 0 0 1424 389 0 947 446 10 21 0 0
3293 706 1041 1038 0 3 0 1547 448 0 894 624 10 19 0 0
4039 706 1175 1079 75 21 0 2158 614 0 1495 626 10 27 0 0
3971 706 1388 1147 191 50 0 1877 589 0 1244 552 2 79 0 0
4548 1515 1506 1149 267 90 0 1527 649 0 870 573 1 83 0 0
4846 1515 1623 1166 317 140 0 1707 644 185 1039 585 1 83 0 0
1.8 0.1 2.1 2.1
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
53.1
52.3
52.8
48.7
54.5
52.7
50.3
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
32.2 7.2 0.0 63.4 34.9 28.5
32.9 8.2 0.0 62.5 38.9 23.6
33.0 12.5 0.0 62.6 37.3 25.3
35.4 18.7 0.0 58.4 32.8 25.6
37.0 19.0 0.0 54.8 29.9 24.9
34.6 16.9 0.0 79.8 56.3 23.5
36.7 16.4 8.3 77.8 54.4 23.3
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
32.5 1.9 0.0 2.9 1.0 32.5
2.0 7.9 1.6 0.2 5.2 10.9
2.5 -0.1
2.0 2.8
-0.9 0.9
-0.6 10.8 -5.2 1.4
3.4 -1.2 -13.6 15.2
-1.8 0.6 -12.0 0.5
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
21.6 6.5 13.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
21.4 4.1 16.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
25.0 3.5 20.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
26.9 3.1 22.7 0.8 0.4 0.0
29.5 3.3 24.9 0.8 0.5 0.0
32.8 3.5 27.8 0.9 0.6 0.0
35.6 3.7 30.1 1.0 0.7 0.0
37.1 3.8 31.4 1.1 0.9 0.0
38.0 3.8 32.1 1.1 1.0 0.0
1.5 -6.0 4.3 -6.8 3.7
1.7 -0.6 2.0 1.7 4.9
1.9 1.1 1.9 1.9 4.7
0.7 0.4 0.6 1.1 3.3
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
9.1 4.9 4.2 0.0
6.4 3.3 3.1 0.0
8.2 5.3 2.9 0.0
14.3 11.0 3.2 0.0
22.4 18.4 4.0 0.0
29.8 25.2 4.6 0.0
34.8 29.3 5.5 0.0
38.6 32.5 6.0 0.0
40.9 34.6 6.3 0.0
-1.1 0.8 -3.8
10.6 13.3 3.4
4.5 4.7 3.3
1.6 1.7 1.3
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
930 51 642 181 29 27 0
1329 33 918 329 29 20 0
1312 27 909 316 34 25 0
1475 23 829 570 29 23 0
1981 25 892 1000 35 29 0
2423 26 961 1362 40 35 0
2655 26 1012 1535 43 40 0
2688 26 951 1625 42 44 0
2598 25 859 1635 31 48 0
3.5 -6.2 3.5 5.8 1.4 -0.8
4.2 -0.9 -0.2 12.2 0.3 1.6
3.0 0.3 1.3 4.4 2.1 3.3
-0.2 -0.2 -1.6 0.6 -3.2 1.9
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
115
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Spain: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
33731 11679 801 1273 13701 6276 2184 4067 1 21 2
31366 10170 790 379 14305 5722 1987 3684 23 25 3
31335 7740 229 148 16046 7172 2534 4191 406 33 8
30127 6265 168 144 14842 8709 1681 5131 1825 65 8
32789 4688 135 70 15121 12775 2537 6125 3379 722 12
36507 4504 107 45 15267 16584 2603 8543 4208 1208 22
38761 4225 85 0 15267 19184 2638 9976 4933 1579 59
39853 3036 0 0 12490 24326 2783 11441 7229 1886 987
48777 2519 0 0 15510 30749 2821 12130 10178 2086 3533
-0.7 -4.0 -11.8 -19.4 1.6 1.3 1.5 0.3 79.0 4.5 12.3
0.5 -4.9 -5.1 -7.2 -0.6 5.9 0.0 3.9 23.6 36.3 4.9
1.7 -1.0 -4.5
2.3 -5.0
0.1 4.1 0.4 5.0 3.9 8.1 16.9
0.2 4.8 0.7 2.0 7.5 2.8 50.6
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
60168 7038 49476 53717 -4240 3690 -36
76165 9146 59112 56145 2968 7521 386
99334 12636 70849 59233 11616 15467 382
123972 14418 79421 60834 18587 30248 -115
117507 9347 74755 59676 15079 33592 -377
125904 12040 79244 63031 16213 34483 -312
133587 13306 81289 64552 16738 38716 -361
138200 14414 82152 65208 16945 41238 -400
133870 13068 80604 64567 16037 39672 -387
5.1 6.0 3.7 1.0 15.4
1.7 -3.0 0.5 0.1 2.6 8.1
1.3 3.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4
0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.2
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
89717 18942 45863 4970 13701 -36 6276
102950 19515 55298 7722 14305 386 5723
123652 20643 64191 15219 16046 382 7172
144589 20698 70610 29844 14842 -115 8710
142062 14035 66656 33662 15121 -377 12964
153517 16544 70457 34528 15267 -312 17034
163038 17531 72064 38716 15267 -361 19820
168450 17450 72551 41238 12490 -400 25122
172871 15587 70828 39672 15510 -387 31662
3.3 0.9 3.4 11.8 1.6
1.4 -3.8 0.4 8.3 -0.6
1.4 2.2 0.8 1.4 0.1
0.6 -1.2 -0.2 0.2 0.2
1.3
6.1
4.3
4.8
21.1 51.1 5.5 15.3 7.0
19.0 53.7 7.5 13.9 5.6
16.7 51.9 12.3 13.0 5.8
14.3 48.8 20.6 10.3 6.0
9.9 46.9 23.7 10.6 9.1
10.8 45.9 22.5 9.9 11.1
10.8 44.2 23.7 9.4 12.2
10.4 43.1 24.5 7.4 14.9
9.0 41.0 22.9 9.0 18.3
150944 21386
165585 24594
222776 32562
290518 40810
297111 39356
333024 44288
369455 49807
405466 56003
437073 64796
4.0 4.3
2.9 1.9
2.2 2.4
1.7 2.7
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
16683 13881 2171 486 145 0 0
18604 13585 3654 987 377 0 0
26463 18249 4445 3075 694 0 0
35421 17641 5249 11140 1391 0 0
31257 11993 4279 13009 1976 0 0
34921 14600 4041 12905 3376 0 0
39383 15497 3085 16423 4377 0 0
42286 15073 2845 18199 5265 904 0
40307 13169 2504 15075 6130 3429 0
4.7 2.8 7.4 20.3 16.9
1.7 -4.1 -0.4 15.5 11.0
2.3 2.6 -3.2 2.4 8.3
0.2 -1.6 -2.1 -0.9 3.4
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
58344 54213 0 0 4131
59752 56829 0 0 2924
63964 60882 51 0 3031
64825 61490 259 0 3077
62853 59465 1558 0 1830
67121 62998 2526 0 1598
69351 64616 3029 0 1705
70352 65253 3345 0 1754
69863 64647 3470 0 1746
0.9 1.2
-0.2 -0.2 40.7
1.0 0.8 6.9
0.1 0.0 1.4
-3.0
-4.9
-0.7
0.2
Energy Branch Consumption
4745
5505
6119
6708
5974
6245
6516
6753
7093
2.6
-0.2
0.9
0.9
Non-Energy Uses
6027
8358
9467
8349
7854
8682
9435
10142
10611
4.6
-1.8
1.9
1.2
56801
63691
79631
97456
99884
109066
115996
121385
123799
3.4
2.3
1.5
0.7
20070 13093 6977 9275 5054 22401
20508 13648 6860 9998 7024 26162
25528 17306 8221 11886 9241 32977
31098 20472 10626 15168 11580 39609
30699 19182 11518 16074 11869 41242
33262 20397 12865 17586 12907 45311
36475 21957 14518 17976 13537 48008
39969 23569 16400 17972 14299 49145
42839 24891 17949 17779 14749 48431
2.4 2.8 1.7 2.5 6.2 3.9
1.9 1.0 3.4 3.1 2.5 2.3
1.7 1.4 2.3 1.1 1.3 1.5
1.6 1.3 2.1 -0.1 0.9 0.1
3524 33612 4903 10817 0 3945 0
2235 39125 6841 12116 39 3335 0
1671 46007 12141 16205 74 3533 0
1782 53066 17978 20824 0 3805 1
1166 51314 19362 21272 2185 4582 3
1202 54916 19981 23974 2914 6073 6
1245 56617 20716 26570 3955 6885 9
1545 57150 21036 29095 4778 7772 9
1565 55953 22201 31087 5177 7807 9
-7.2 3.2 9.5 4.1
-3.5 1.1 4.8 2.8 40.3 2.6 61.8
0.7 1.0 0.7 2.2 6.1 4.2 11.4
2.3 -0.1 0.7 1.6 2.7 1.3 0.4
6612
8524
12017
16130
18788
23243
27377
386.1 281.1 94.1 13.4 46.4 16.5 13.0 97.7 27.0 78.0
440.6 207.1 336.8 113.0 14.4 55.4 20.4 16.3 117.3 30.4 73.4
406.8 170.7 308.4 91.7 12.1 48.2 21.4 16.4 118.6 27.1 71.4
429.8 181.7 329.3 100.8 11.5 49.4 22.5 17.0 128.0 28.5 72.0
446.0 191.7 342.6 106.8 11.7 51.6 21.1 16.9 134.5 30.1 73.4
452.8 196.1 347.4 108.5 11.4 54.3 19.3 17.3 136.6 31.7 73.7
410.9 156.4 303.2 66.1 10.6 57.7 17.8 17.7 133.4 32.8 74.9
135.4
154.6
142.7
150.8
156.5
158.8
144.1
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
285.1
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
202.4 63.6 11.5 40.7 12.9 7.7 65.9 23.1 59.6
224.6 68.2 13.1 41.9 13.6 10.6 77.2 22.3
-1.1
6.2
4.6
3.8
3.1
0.5
3.3 4.0 1.5 1.3 2.5 5.3 4.0 1.6 2.7
0.9 -0.3 -1.0 0.4 2.7 2.3 2.0 0.0 -0.9
0.9 1.2 1.1 1.5 -0.3 0.7 -0.2 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.3
-0.8 -2.0 -1.2 -4.7 -1.0 1.1 -1.7 0.4 -0.1 0.9 0.2
Source: PRIMES
116
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Spain: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
38.826 574.9 156.1 2.26 64.3
39.343 632.9 162.7 2.18 71.8
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
40.050 773.9 159.8 2.27 76.7
43.038 908.8 159.1 2.33 81.3
46.673 949.4 149.6 2.17 78.2
49.381 1099.4 139.6 2.15 77.5
51.109 1285.2 126.9 2.10 77.5
52.101 1474.1 114.3 2.06 77.6
52.661 1635.8 105.7 1.75 73.3
74.6 9.6
92.6 10.2
101.3 10.7
123.3 11.2
155.4 12.1
179.5 12.2
188.7 11.5
0.3 3.0 0.2 0.1
1.5 2.1 -0.7 -0.5
0.9 3.1 -1.6 -0.3
0.3 2.4 -1.8 -1.8
3.1
4.4
2.0
98.8 103.7 70.9 37.4 89.2
100.1 102.8 90.3 38.0 76.3
100.0 100.0 100.0 40.9 70.6
115.5 107.4 107.4 40.1 65.5
111.3 111.0 104.9 38.6 65.4
103.0 105.5 97.2 35.7 65.2
94.6 95.3 87.7 33.6 62.7
88.2 86.1 81.1 31.1 59.7
84.1 78.6 75.5 28.7 55.8
0.1 -0.4 3.5 0.9 -2.3
1.1 1.0 0.5 -0.6 -0.8
-1.6 -1.5 -1.8 -1.4 -0.4
-1.2 -1.9 -1.5 -1.6 -1.2
0.42 2.24 2.03 1.39 1.53 2.94
0.41 2.25 2.04 1.36 1.51 2.95
0.42 2.18 1.82 1.39 1.41 2.96
0.39 2.15 1.78 1.35 1.41 2.96
0.28 2.05 1.57 1.33 1.38 2.87
0.27 1.99 1.49 1.28 1.32 2.83
0.25 1.93 1.41 1.17 1.25 2.80
0.23 1.87 1.36 1.08 1.21 2.78
0.13 1.83 1.35 1.00 1.20 2.75
0.0 -0.3 -1.1 0.0 -0.9 0.1
-3.8 -0.6 -1.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3
-1.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.3 -1.0 -0.3
-6.4 -0.5 -0.5 -1.6 -0.4 -0.2
8.0 0.4
8.5 1.0
11.6 4.7
14.3 6.9
15.6 7.8
18.4 8.5
21.2 9.3
222776 62195 86960 22636 14956 1824 29465 4723 18 0
290518 57529 93772 26417 67692 4303 19549 21215 41 0
297111 58619 57863 19176 80579 6420 29499 39295 5658 1
333024 59185 70783 18220 83617 13095 30267 48930 8925 1
369455 59185 75470 13853 104476 17061 30673 57356 11381 1
405466 49897 73286 12940 118017 20383 32359 84064 13468 1052
437073 63059 69467 12164 97634 24628 32806 118350 14978 3988
2.9 -0.6 -4.0 -1.6 18.3 13.4 0.0 23.6 77.7
2.2 0.1 2.7 -3.2 2.6 10.3 0.4 3.9 7.2 0.0
1.7 0.6 -0.8 -1.3 -0.7 3.7 0.7 7.5 2.8 132.4
48421 7579 14819 12533 2274 12 0 26024 3800 0 11549 7466 6536 472 0 0
69109 7579 22686 12731 9918 37 0 38845 4796 0 11674 20921 5386 864 0 0
95500 7434 37238 13819 19423 3996 0 50827 5477 0 11466 31823 5609 1929 0 0
102635 6986 43678 13922 23528 6228 0 51971 7196 0 10531 33241 5356 2842 0 0
108840 6986 49232 14192 27113 7926 0 52622 8852 340 10530 33530 5099 3462 0 0
119477 5919 60577 14464 36806 9306 0 52982 11067 340 9886 34121 4508 4347 0 120
138749 7500 73394 14761 48367 10266 0 57855 11165 4097 12937 34421 4923 5119 0 455
7.0 -0.2 9.7 1.0 23.9 78.7 6.9 3.7
1.3 -0.6 2.8 0.3 3.4 7.1 0.0 0.3 4.9
-0.1 15.6 -1.5 15.1
-0.8 0.5 -0.9 6.0
2.5 0.7 4.1 0.4 6.0 2.6 0.0 1.0 2.3 28.3 2.1 0.3 -0.3 4.0
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
50.2
46.0
34.4
35.9
37.5
37.3
34.2
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
41.1 9.7 0.0 44.1 27.9 16.2
46.7 8.2 0.0 35.3 19.8 15.5
45.1 8.3 0.0 46.9 19.7 27.2
45.7 11.8 0.0 48.2 17.8 30.4
46.0 14.0 1.0 47.5 16.0 31.5
45.9 16.6 0.9 49.6 12.3 37.3
44.4 15.9 9.6 59.0 14.4 44.6
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
301.3 33.4 186.8 19.9 59.6 1.6
386.4 39.6 257.3 20.8 67.0 1.6
476.1 50.3 310.2 25.4 88.6 1.6
535.4 53.2 346.4 27.6 106.5 1.7
558.5 59.7 353.7 28.3 115.1 1.8
641.8 65.1 404.1 31.0 139.7 1.9
722.3 70.1 458.2 35.1 156.8 2.0
797.8 74.0 501.7 39.8 180.3 2.1
858.1 76.6 531.4 43.9 204.0 2.2
4.7 4.2 5.2 2.5 4.0 -0.2
1.6 1.7 1.3 1.1 2.6 0.9
2.6 1.6 2.6 2.2 3.1 1.3
1.7 0.9 1.5 2.3 2.7 0.9
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
124.7 80.5 11.2 33.0
150.5 101.6 11.0 38.0
191.3 148.7 11.6 31.0
276.9 233.2 11.6 32.0
300.9 258.1 10.9 32.0
343.8 298.7 11.7 33.4
378.4 328.9 13.1 36.4
407.4 353.2 14.7 39.5
426.9 369.5 15.9 41.5
4.4 6.3 0.4 -0.6
4.6 5.7 -0.7 0.3
2.3 2.5 1.9 1.3
1.2 1.2 1.9 1.3
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
22401 356 8092 9305 529 2456 1664
26162 417 10704 9427 629 3105 1881
32977 522 14024 11708 850 4486 1386
39609 541 15106 15923 1171 5323 1544
41242 602 14798 17571 1072 5650 1548
45311 639 15247 20170 1146 6496 1613
48008 656 15987 21395 1159 7074 1737
49145 656 16278 21876 1149 7323 1863
48431 643 15783 21598 868 7601 1939
3.9 3.9 5.7 2.3 4.9 6.2 -1.8
2.3 1.4 0.5 4.1 2.3 2.3 1.1
1.5 0.9 0.8 2.0 0.8 2.3 1.2
0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -2.9 0.7 1.1
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
117
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
Sweden: Baseline 2009 ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
29665 152 3 0 17764 11745 6234 5507 1 3 0
31344 225 4 0 18040 13075 5856 7206 9 5 0
30008 162 0 0 14781 15065 6757 8264 39 5 0
34207 211 0 0 18670 15325 6260 8978 80 6 0
32984 261 0 0 17297 15427 5814 9309 286 18 0
34009 227 0 0 17570 16212 5835 9887 453 36 0
35645 207 0 0 18789 16650 5760 10236 606 48 0
36935 171 0 0 19522 17243 5864 10590 724 65 0
36883 153 0 0 19375 17354 5871 10595 812 76 0
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
18035 2399 15211 17071 -1861 577 -152
19405 2750 16044 17892 -1848 755 -145
19291 2409 15703 20449 -4745 776 402
20179 2556 17416 20071 -2655 843 -636
18590 2012 15847 18457 -2610 1224 -535
18767 2094 15718 18328 -2610 1372 -548
18119 2100 15342 17953 -2611 1285 -811
16988 1634 14739 17349 -2610 1236 -858
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
47213 2683 14596 577 17764 -152 11745
50401 2890 15786 755 18040 -145 13075
47896 2442 14429 776 14781 402 15065
51689 2629 14858 843 18670 -636 15325
49654 2272 13927 1224 17297 -535 15469
50739 2322 13681 1372 17570 -548 16342
51674 2307 13251 1285 18789 -811 16853
5.7 30.9 1.2 37.6 24.9
5.7 31.3 1.5 35.8 25.9
5.1 30.1 1.6 30.9 31.5
5.1 28.7 1.6 36.1 29.6
4.6 28.0 2.5 34.8 31.2
4.6 27.0 2.7 34.6 32.2
145958 15140
148264 15969
145524 16250
158340 17365
156570 15650
1491 558 253 253 427 0 0
3246 705 737 406 1398 0 0
3239 467 276 414 2083 0 0
4458 494 317 490 3158 0 0
20664 18125 0 1123 1416
23542 19553 0 2373 1616
25372 21694 0 1973 1705
Energy Branch Consumption
1758
1629
Non-Energy Uses
1826
2051
30518
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
0.1 0.6
1.0 4.9
0.8 -2.3
0.3 -3.0
-1.8 2.5 0.8 4.1 54.2 5.3
1.6 0.2 -1.5 1.2 22.0 12.9
0.8 0.8 -0.1 1.0 7.8 10.4 4.8
0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 3.0 4.7 0.1
16397 1747 14219 16827 -2608 1254 -898
0.7 0.0 0.3 1.8
-0.4 -1.8 0.1 -1.0
-0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.3
-1.0 -1.8 -0.8 -0.6
3.0
4.7
0.5
-0.2
51782 1805 12597 1236 19522 -858 17481
51084 1900 12023 1254 19375 -898 17429
0.1 -0.9 -0.1 3.0 -1.8
0.4 -0.7 -0.4 4.7 1.6
0.4 0.2 -0.5 0.5 0.8
-0.1 -1.9 -1.0 -0.2 0.3
2.5
0.3
0.9
0.3
4.5 25.6 2.5 36.4 32.6
3.5 24.3 2.4 37.7 33.8
3.7 23.5 2.5 37.9 34.1
163879 16734
172429 17548
180020 18850
181004 18815
0.0 0.7
0.7 -0.4
1.0 1.2
0.5 0.7
4937 564 411 880 3082 0 0
5512 565 304 1103 3540 0 0
5892 602 277 1041 3972 0 0
6225 308 269 997 4651 0 0
6697 265 74 981 5376 0 0
8.1 -1.8 0.9 5.0 17.2
4.3 1.9 4.1 7.8 4.0
1.8 0.7 -3.9 1.7 2.6
1.3 -7.9 -12.3 -0.6 3.1
24500 20789 152 1728 1832
22325 18453 292 2320 1260
22258 18326 431 2123 1378
21927 17952 510 2103 1363
21024 17348 552 1781 1343
19787 16827 602 1023 1335
2.1 1.8
-1.3 -1.6
5.8 1.9
1.6 -3.0
-0.2 -0.3 5.7 -1.0 0.8
-1.0 -0.6 1.7 -6.9 -0.2
1532
1371
1310
1355
1378
1415
1379
-1.4
-1.6
0.5
0.0
1808
2425
2444
2537
2566
2523
2542
-0.1
3.1
0.5
-0.1
32305
33350
33173
31638
32290
32320
31942
31501
0.9
-0.5
0.2
-0.3
11827 8542 3285 6542 4873 7276
11195 7497 3699 7735 5694 7680
12056 8396 3660 7554 5593 8147
12097 8887 3209 7302 5166 8608
10862 7813 3049 7323 4820 8633
10735 7657 3078 7468 5049 9037
10756 7607 3149 7446 5020 9098
10803 7595 3208 7267 5024 8847
10981 7675 3306 7042 4921 8557
0.2 -0.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.1
-1.0 -0.7 -1.8 -0.3 -1.5 0.6
-0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5
0.2 0.1 0.5 -0.6 -0.2 -0.6
1231 12007 587 10348 1706 4639 0
1192 12343 611 10711 3540 3908 0
1141 12389 673 11068 3550 4529 0
1345 11175 764 11382 4174 4332 0
1060 10008 602 11337 4710 3920 1
1058 10052 692 11855 4589 4041 1
1039 9775 660 12248 4570 4026 2
860 9327 653 12739 4315 4046 2
996 8889 692 12792 4014 4116 2
-0.8 0.3 1.4 0.7 7.6 -0.2
-0.7 -2.1 -1.1 0.2 2.9 -1.4
-0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.8 -0.3 0.3 8.4
-0.4 -0.9 0.5 0.4 -1.3 0.2 -0.2
12960
13507
14612
15410
15913
16434
16430
1.2
0.9
0.3
70.8
62.5 20.4 43.6 6.7 1.1 8.3 1.5 2.3 23.7 5.1 13.8
61.9 19.9 43.4 6.3 0.9 8.2 1.5 2.0 24.5 5.4 13.2
60.8 20.0 42.2 6.2 0.8 7.8 1.3 1.6 24.4 5.4 13.2
57.4 18.5 38.7 4.8 0.7 7.0 1.2 1.4 23.6 5.6 13.2
56.6 18.8 37.7 4.1 1.1 7.5 1.1 1.3 22.6 5.6 13.3
-0.1
-1.3
50.7 5.1 1.9 11.0 3.7 5.6 23.2 5.4 14.7
68.6 24.1 48.6 5.5 2.1 12.4 1.4 3.1 24.1 5.6 14.4
0.0 -1.9 2.3 -0.4 -2.6 0.0 1.1 -0.3 -0.6
-1.5 2.7 -5.5 -2.8 -8.8 -8.7 0.2 -0.6 -0.6
-0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8 -3.0 -0.6 -1.5 -3.2 0.3 0.7 -0.5
-0.7 -0.6 -1.1 -4.1 3.5 -0.4 -1.6 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 0.1
98.8
95.7
87.1
86.4
84.8
80.1
79.0
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
71.7 50.5 6.3 1.5 11.5 4.9 5.6 20.7 5.6 15.6 100.0
53.3 7.9 1.8 11.7 4.6 5.4 21.9 5.9
Source: PRIMES
118
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Sweden: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
8.527 210.0 224.9 1.07 37.7
8.816 220.4 228.7 1.06 37.7
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
8.861 259.7 184.4 1.06 39.2
9.011 294.7 175.4 0.94 37.6
9.306 304.3 163.2 0.88 36.0
9.588 342.8 148.0 0.85 35.6
9.853 380.3 135.9 0.82 33.7
10.094 417.7 124.0 0.75 31.5
10.270 456.7 111.8 0.74 30.8
25.7 9.9
32.0 10.9
32.7 10.8
37.0 10.8
42.0 11.0
45.5 10.9
47.0 10.3
0.4 2.2 -2.0 -0.1
0.5 1.6 -1.2 -1.9
0.6 2.3 -1.8 -0.7
0.4 1.8 -1.9 -1.0
2.5
2.5
1.1
175.0 102.6 103.9 40.6 41.7
133.3 120.4 118.2 41.3 43.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 39.9 45.6
80.6 87.3 82.9 40.2 45.2
70.7 91.7 75.6 38.5 44.8
60.4 81.2 69.8 35.2 44.6
54.7 73.3 62.3 33.0 42.8
50.2 66.0 56.6 29.6 40.8
46.7 59.0 50.6 26.6 38.7
-5.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.9
-3.4 -0.9 -2.8 -0.4 -0.2
-2.5 -2.2 -1.9 -1.5 -0.5
-1.6 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -1.0
0.04 1.40 0.97 0.74 1.15 2.85
0.04 1.35 1.04 0.59 0.95 2.85
0.03 1.31 0.92 0.49 1.00 2.85
0.03 1.24 1.02 0.20 0.61 2.79
0.03 1.13 0.77 0.20 0.47 2.74
0.03 1.12 0.76 0.20 0.40 2.71
0.03 1.09 0.73 0.17 0.32 2.68
0.02 1.04 0.65 0.16 0.29 2.66
0.02 1.03 0.68 0.16 0.27 2.64
-3.1 -0.7 -0.6 -4.0 -1.4 0.0
1.5 -1.4 -1.8 -8.5 -7.4 -0.4
-1.5 -0.4 -0.5 -1.7 -3.6 -0.2
-4.2 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 -1.9 -0.2
36.8 1.9
38.8 4.2
44.1 6.2
45.5 7.9
46.8 9.1
48.8 10.1
49.4 11.5
145524 57306 1623 1210 1599 4759 78570 457 0 0
158340 72364 1720 1277 1844 7405 72795 936 0 0
156570 67071 2149 2151 4036 10230 67600 3328 4 0
163879 68131 2136 1302 5653 13491 67850 5272 45 0
172429 72855 2278 1203 5403 16591 66972 7052 76 0
180020 75697 1117 1164 5537 19800 68183 8418 104 0
181004 75130 888 308 5316 21528 68267 9443 124 0
0.7 1.6 2.8 5.9 9.7 8.0 -1.5 22.0
1.0 0.8 0.6 -5.7 3.0 5.0 -0.1 7.8 34.7
0.5 0.3 -9.0 -12.7 -0.2 2.6 0.2 3.0 5.1
33642 9584 16559 16347 209 3 0 7499 3662 0 764 549 4606 1581 0 0
33916 9646 16896 16374 516 5 0 7374 3662 0 686 405 3340 2943 0 0
35761 9685 17939 16460 1465 15 0 8137 4292 0 686 1093 3200 3159 0 0
37005 10545 18824 16679 2097 49 0 7637 4146 0 582 1167 2706 3182 0 0
37493 10547 19646 16770 2797 78 0 7301 4378 0 582 1167 2053 3499 0 0
39626 10547 20539 17086 3345 108 0 8541 4695 0 530 2199 1614 4197 0 0
40737 10547 20972 17086 3757 129 0 9219 4774 0 287 3329 850 4753 0 0
0.6 0.1 0.8 0.1 21.5 17.1
0.5 0.9 0.9 0.2 6.7 18.3
0.8 0.0 0.7 0.2 3.0 5.1
0.8 1.6
-1.1 0.2
2.4 0.9
-1.1 7.1 -3.6 7.2
-1.6 0.7 -4.3 1.0
-6.8 11.1 -8.4 3.1
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
47.6
51.4
48.7
49.3
51.1
50.4
49.3
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
24.4 6.2 0.0 97.0 39.4 57.6
23.6 7.1 0.0 96.9 45.7 51.2
32.3 11.9 0.0 94.7 42.8 51.8
35.2 13.8 0.0 94.5 41.6 52.9
37.2 14.7 0.0 94.8 42.3 52.6
38.2 15.2 0.0 95.7 42.0 53.6
36.0 15.4 0.0 96.4 41.5 54.9
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
123.7 9.7 86.9 8.6 11.8 6.7
124.8 9.7 88.1 8.8 12.1 6.2
133.4 9.5 93.5 10.2 14.2 6.1
138.7 8.8 99.6 11.0 13.5 5.8
143.5 8.6 102.0 12.6 14.4 6.0
158.9 8.8 112.0 14.3 17.5 6.2
168.7 9.1 117.5 15.3 20.4 6.4
178.3 9.4 122.0 16.3 24.1 6.5
187.1 9.7 125.6 17.1 28.1 6.7
0.8 -0.2 0.7 1.7 1.8 -0.9
0.7 -1.0 0.9 2.1 0.2 -0.2
1.6 0.6 1.4 2.0 3.5 0.7
1.0 0.6 0.7 1.1 3.3 0.4
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
53.9 26.5 19.1 8.3
58.9 31.6 19.4 7.9
62.0 35.6 19.5 6.9
67.3 38.6 21.7 7.0
69.5 39.6 22.9 6.9
77.4 44.6 25.5 7.4
82.7 47.5 27.2 8.0
87.6 50.4 28.8 8.5
92.4 53.3 30.2 8.9
1.4 3.0 0.2 -1.8
1.1 1.1 1.7 0.1
1.8 1.8 1.7 1.4
1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
7276 129 4016 1974 252 760 144
7680 122 4078 2253 273 849 103
8147 130 4108 2526 299 928 155
8608 114 4468 2706 332 846 142
8633 110 4373 2768 350 888 144
9037 110 4297 3081 372 1027 151
9098 108 4142 3162 375 1156 156
8847 105 3779 3197 376 1230 160
8557 103 3401 3195 380 1315 164
1.1 0.1 0.2 2.5 1.7 2.0 0.8
0.6 -1.7 0.6 0.9 1.6 -0.4 -0.7
0.5 -0.2 -0.5 1.3 0.7 2.7 0.8
-0.6 -0.4 -2.0 0.1 0.1 1.3 0.5
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
119
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
United Kingdom: Baseline 2009
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
205941 54125 93246 40925 16574 1070 436 627 1 5 1
250517 30516 133042 63715 21249 1996 416 1539 34 6 1
269601 18577 128893 97554 21942 2635 437 2104 81 11 1
203293 12172 86714 79397 21054 3956 423 3252 250 30 1
166174 10500 70000 63000 16098 6576 403 4770 1315 86 2
114909 9000 45000 35000 16255 9654 414 5449 3573 209 9
82913 8000 25000 24000 12152 13762 415 5938 6970 417 22
77593 7000 20000 18000 17454 15138 416 6005 8083 591 44
77485 6000 18000 13000 23884 16602 418 6115 9227 778 63
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
5720 9122 -10607 -4602 -6005 6178 1027
-36234 10493 -48766 -36569 -12197 637 1403
-39249 14577 -45734 -39312 -6422 -9311 1219
32152 27459 -2409 4857 -7266 5973 715
52091 24525 8111 14116 -6005 18101 512
102121 26491 34618 40676 -6058 38707 768
127930 24761 53898 59979 -6081 46291 784
129878 21021 56740 62977 -6237 48693 598
129152 19359 57540 63861 -6321 48369 591
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
211304 64305 81124 47203 16574 1027 1070
218439 45866 82806 65119 21249 1403 1996
231868 36816 81857 87399 21942 1219 2635
232972 38387 82974 85473 21054 715 4370
216266 35025 76112 81101 16098 512 7417
215007 35491 77595 73707 16255 768 11191
208829 32761 76884 70291 12152 784 15958
205436 28021 74705 66693 17454 598 17964
204549 25359 73452 61369 23884 591 19894
30.4 38.4 22.3 7.8 0.5
21.0 37.9 29.8 9.7 0.9
15.9 35.3 37.7 9.5 1.1
16.5 35.6 36.7 9.0 1.9
16.2 35.2 37.5 7.4 3.4
16.5 36.1 34.3 7.6 5.2
15.7 36.8 33.7 5.8 7.6
13.6 36.4 32.5 8.5 8.7
12.4 35.9 30.0 11.7 9.7
316937 44606
332435 46775
374308 48358
395367 48835
391026 48595
408409 51713
429845 58877
443803 58575
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
56324 47267 7177 1668 212 0 0
49960 33844 3443 12054 620 0 0
55408 27232 767 25999 1410 0 0
61068 30920 677 26428 3043 0 0
60204 29175 331 26885 3813 0 0
59165 29883 1197 23697 4379 7 0
56302 27234 1289 23075 4686 18 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
99522 90259 0 0 9264
102761 94682 0 0 8079
100927 89873 0 3373 7682
95428 87812 68 2111 5436
90001 82732 1052 1867 4350
91653 85019 1849 637 4148
Energy Branch Consumption
12823
14392
15027
15548
14370
Non-Energy Uses
11365
12762
11323
11241
9838
137080
142633
152177
152272
34977 19485 15492 37941 18621 45541
35146 19968 15178 39568 20887 47032
36424 19231 17193 43074 20373 52307
12266 58903 41893 23597 0 421 0
8891 60401 47140 25274 0 926 0
5683 62950 52180 28325 2439 600 0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
2.7 -10.1 3.3 9.1 2.8 9.4 0.0 12.9 59.3 8.1 0.0
-4.7 -5.5 -5.9 -4.3 -3.0 9.6 -0.8 8.5 32.1 22.5 7.3
-6.7 -2.7 -9.8 -9.2 -2.8 7.7 0.3 2.2 18.1 17.1 29.7
-0.7 -2.8 -3.2 -5.9 7.0 1.9 0.1 0.3 2.8 6.4 11.4
4.8
5.3
9.4 0.1 20.9 15.6
0.1 -2.4 0.7 0.6
1.7
-8.3
9.8 4.4
0.4 -2.8
0.9 -5.4 0.1 6.4 2.8 1.7 9.4
-0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -3.0 -8.3 10.9
-0.3 -0.7 0.1 -1.4 -2.8 4.4 8.0
-0.2 -2.5 -0.5 -1.3 7.0 -2.8 2.2
460913 65936
1.7 0.8
0.4 0.0
1.0 1.9
0.7 1.1
51368 22730 1064 22545 4993 36 0
44803 20208 1070 18224 5246 53 0
-0.2 -5.4 -20.0 31.6 20.9
0.8 0.7 -8.1 0.3 10.5
-0.7 -0.7 14.6 -1.5 2.1
-2.3 -2.9 -1.8 -2.3 1.1 11.6
91732 84766 2543 428 3994
89939 83022 2758 361 3799
89052 82047 2968 264 3772
0.1 0.0
-1.1 -0.8
-1.9
-5.7 -5.5
0.2 0.2 9.2 -13.7 -0.9
-0.3 -0.3 1.6 -4.7 -0.6
13537
13427
12588
12385
1.6
-0.4
-0.7
-0.8
11001
11884
12602
13335
0.0
-1.4
1.9
1.2
144370
145683
144521
141179
140266
1.1
-0.5
0.0
-0.3
34371 16421 17950 43519 19176 55206
32506 14720 17786 39646 17792 54426
32915 14790 18125 40034 17334 55400
33575 15139 18436 39327 16534 55084
34077 15415 18662 38226 15823 53053
34557 15862 18695 38173 15413 52123
0.4 -0.1 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.4
-1.1 -2.6 0.3 -0.8 -1.3 0.4
0.3 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.7 0.1
0.3 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6
4418 65915 50227 29792 1268 653 0
3573 61632 45716 29273 2458 1713 3
3485 61593 43542 30749 3735 2574 6
3554 60488 40902 32000 4068 3501 7
3451 58173 38182 33060 4368 3937 7
3446 56708 37313 33906 4495 4392 7
-7.4 0.7 2.2 1.8
-4.5 -0.2 -1.3 0.3 0.1 11.1
-0.1 -0.2 -1.1 0.9 5.2 7.4 7.5
-0.3 -0.6 -0.9 0.6 1.0 2.3 -0.6
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
772.6
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
566.4 214.1 27.1 81.8 77.8 33.0 132.6 22.8 183.4
532.7 173.0 31.3 78.8 77.3 35.3 137.0 23.4
1432
2139
4634
8469
13418
15652
17757
693.3 546.6 181.0 32.2 72.1 81.9 26.7 152.6 20.1 126.7
678.6 311.8 559.7 192.8 34.2 66.4 80.1 24.5 161.6 19.8 99.1
629.5 286.0 521.0 184.3 30.3 58.1 70.6 21.5 156.3 18.6 89.9
611.7 278.9 507.1 179.5 26.8 54.9 69.9 19.0 156.9 19.3 85.3
568.2 251.5 467.9 151.3 25.1 54.5 66.8 16.4 153.8 20.1 80.2
532.6 231.2 432.5 131.3 23.4 53.3 63.2 14.3 147.0 20.7 79.4
479.2 185.8 379.8 86.8 21.5 52.7 62.4 13.1 143.3 21.3 78.1
89.7
87.8
81.5
79.2
73.5
68.9
62.0
3.6
12.5
11.2
2.8
-1.1
-1.0
-0.4 -1.7 1.7 -1.3 0.5 -2.1 1.4 -1.2 -3.6
-0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.1 -1.5 -2.2 0.2 -0.8 -3.4
-1.0 -1.3 -1.1 -2.0 -1.8 -0.6 -0.6 -2.7 -0.2 0.8 -1.1
-1.7 -3.0 -2.1 -5.4 -1.5 -0.3 -0.7 -2.2 -0.7 0.6 -0.3
Source: PRIMES
120
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2A
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
United Kingdom: Baseline 2009 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
57.157 1263.3 167.3 2.68 2.7
57.943 1371.5 159.3 2.44 -16.4
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
58.785 1623.9 142.8 2.36 -16.8
60.060 1831.7 127.2 2.40 13.7
61.984 1882.4 114.9 2.41 23.9
63.792 2132.4 100.8 2.36 47.1
65.683 2373.0 88.0 2.24 60.7
67.543 2625.4 78.3 2.11 62.6
69.224 2903.1 70.5 1.86 62.5
141.8 8.7
153.5 8.4
154.4 8.2
176.5 8.3
205.6 8.7
223.2 8.5
228.8 7.9
0.3 2.5 -1.6 -1.3
0.5 1.5 -2.2 0.2
0.6 2.3 -2.6 -0.7
0.5 2.0 -2.2 -1.9
0.9
2.9
1.1
104.4 116.5 123.1 45.4 56.2
102.7 113.7 124.4 45.3 53.2
100.0 100.0 100.0 47.6 53.7
104.8 87.6 78.1 47.2 53.7
103.1 82.0 69.4 44.9 53.3
96.4 71.6 58.6 41.5 53.0
91.9 62.4 49.8 38.9 50.8
86.0 55.2 42.8 35.2 48.0
80.7 50.2 37.5 32.7 44.9
-0.4 -1.5 -2.1 0.5 -0.5
0.3 -2.0 -3.6 -0.6 -0.1
-1.1 -2.7 -3.3 -1.4 -0.5
-1.3 -2.1 -2.8 -1.7 -1.2
0.68 2.37 2.34 2.05 1.77 2.91
0.52 2.30 2.24 1.95 1.69 2.91
0.45 2.19 1.98 1.90 1.31 2.92
0.47 2.18 1.93 1.84 1.28 2.93
0.44 2.12 1.79 1.78 1.21 2.87
0.39 2.06 1.67 1.75 1.10 2.83
0.31 2.02 1.62 1.70 0.99 2.79
0.26 1.97 1.56 1.65 0.90 2.77
0.17 1.94 1.52 1.63 0.85 2.75
-4.0 -0.8 -1.7 -0.7 -3.0 0.0
-0.3 -0.3 -1.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.2
-3.3 -0.5 -1.0 -0.5 -2.0 -0.3
-6.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -1.5 -0.2
0.9 0.0
1.4 0.2
3.2 2.7
5.8 4.8
9.3 6.9
11.2 8.0
12.7 8.9
374308 85048 125076 3447 150451 4253 5085 947 1 0
395367 81603 139027 3053 152255 11595 4921 2903 8 0
391026 62408 126687 1511 164829 15566 4682 15295 38 12
408409 63013 129737 5226 145463 17889 4811 41541 97 631
429845 48031 128171 5533 141620 18416 4827 81043 183 2021
443803 71330 107877 4506 138335 19117 4836 93994 301 3507
460913 101947 104492 4468 111668 20402 4864 107286 448 5339
0.4 -3.0 0.1 -7.9 0.9 13.9 -0.8 32.1 43.8
1.0 -2.6 0.1 13.9 -1.5 1.7 0.3 18.1 17.1 67.6
0.7 7.8 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 1.0 0.1 2.8 9.4 10.2
77225 13038 1873 1462 408 2 0 62315 4015 0 28647 26520 5826 1321 0 0
79496 10962 3016 1439 1565 11 1 65518 3141 0 27019 32734 4093 1672 0 0
86809 10723 8089 1499 6542 41 6 67997 5879 0 26336 35224 4330 2107 0 0
99681 9265 16649 1514 14711 101 323 73768 8580 0 21374 46092 3815 2485 0 1
103816 6012 29905 1526 27151 190 1038 67899 8430 2334 14997 47463 2302 3135 0 2
110549 8887 35013 1537 31366 312 1798 66649 8600 2334 13305 46936 2129 4274 0 5
118842 12638 40955 1551 36201 465 2738 65249 8533 5783 15215 43308 1921 4798 0 7
1.2 -1.9 15.8 0.2 32.0 35.3 0.9 3.9
1.8 -5.6 14.0 0.2 15.3 16.5 67.4 0.0 3.7
-0.8 2.9 -2.9 4.8
-5.5 3.0 -6.1 4.1
1.4 7.7 3.2 0.2 2.9 9.4 10.2 -0.4 0.1 9.5 0.1 -0.9 -1.8 4.3
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
52.9
54.2
49.1
44.6
44.5
43.4
41.4
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
44.0 6.4 0.0 25.5 22.7 2.7
43.1 6.6 0.0 25.6 20.6 4.9
44.1 9.1 0.0 25.1 16.0 9.1
43.4 13.4 0.0 31.3 15.4 15.9
44.9 13.1 5.9 35.9 11.2 24.8
45.2 12.8 5.6 43.5 16.1 27.4
46.3 12.4 12.8 52.1 22.1 30.0
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
11.6
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
740.2 47.7 593.9 39.9 52.2 6.5
770.7 45.8 622.3 37.1 58.8 6.7
823.2 48.5 645.0 46.7 77.4 5.5
884.5 49.5 680.0 53.1 96.7 5.3
909.1 51.6 693.4 60.5 98.2 5.4
993.7 54.9 749.3 66.4 117.5 5.6
1055.5 57.5 780.9 71.9 139.5 5.7
1115.9 59.5 819.1 76.4 155.0 5.8
1179.5 61.3 861.4 81.3 169.5 6.0
1.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 4.0 -1.6
1.0 0.6 0.7 2.6 2.4 -0.3
1.5 1.1 1.2 1.7 3.6 0.5
1.1 0.6 1.0 1.2 2.0 0.5
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
211.8 140.0 16.0 55.8
227.9 161.5 13.3 53.1
243.7 165.6 18.1 60.0
251.0 167.5 22.3 61.2
255.1 168.6 25.1 61.4
267.5 176.6 27.2 63.8
275.9 181.5 28.1 66.2
286.7 189.5 28.8 68.4
300.5 201.0 29.4 70.1
1.4 1.7 1.2 0.7
0.5 0.2 3.3 0.2
0.8 0.7 1.2 0.8
0.9 1.0 0.4 0.6
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
45541 429 25845 10141 1068 6781 1277
47032 435 25978 10378 1238 7879 1123
52307 484 27091 11364 1326 11115 926
55206 505 27804 11406 1405 12810 1275
54426 522 27161 11453 1500 12504 1286
55400 541 26257 11876 1591 13812 1324
55084 539 25159 11756 1514 14757 1360
53053 527 23106 11680 1307 15040 1393
52123 512 22478 11677 1052 14985 1420
1.4 1.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 5.1 -3.2
0.4 0.8 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.2 3.3
0.1 0.3 -0.8 0.3 0.1 1.7 0.6
-0.6 -0.5 -1.1 -0.1 -3.6 0.2 0.4
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
121
APPENDIX 2A
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
(A) Regarding heat from CHP, there is a break in the series between 2005 and 2010. This is related to the practice of Eurostat to report the fuel consumption of on site CHP under the final demand categories of the individual fuels, even if the fuel is in reality used in industrial CHP. In order to keep comparability with Eurostat statistics, the fuel consumption data for the statistical years are presented in a Eurostat compatible format. For the projection period from 2010 onwards the modeling allocates the fuel consumption for new CHP plants to the CHP part of the power generation sector while the corresponding heat and steam is shown under industrial energy demand. Comparisons concerning steam in industry should therefore start only from 2010 onwards. Except for the knock-on effect on total steam, this break in the heat series does not affect other comparisons in PRIMES that can start from 2005 or earlier years. (B) PRIMES does not report separately on industrial waste. In order to ensure a consistent breakdown of supply and demand quanties, industrial waste is shown as part of total waste and of renewables. Given that only biodegradable waste counts towards the renewables targets, the indicators on the share of RES in gross final energy demand have been adjusted to exclude industrial waste. RES indicators have been calculated on the basis of the methodology developed by EUROSTAT, i.e. taking into account normalised hydro and wind production, increased weight for renewable electricity in road transport and aviation cap for gross final energy demand. (C) excluding payments for auctioned emission allowances (if applicable)energy demand increased by distribution losses and self consumption of electricity and steam.
Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport, which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km.
Abbreviations GIC: Gross Inland Consumption CHP: combined heat and power
Units toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule) ktoe: 1000 toe MW: Megawatt or 106 watt MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hours GWh: gigawatt-hour or 109 watt-hours t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes Mt: Million metric tonnes km: kilometre pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre) tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre) Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre
122
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EU-27 ENERGY SCENARIOS TO 2030V
APPENDIX 2B: SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCES AND INDICATORS (REFERENCE SCENARIO)
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
123
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APPENDIX 2B
EU27: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
936047 366477 129551 162447 202589 74984 25101 46473 67 153 3190
950181 277810 171052 188965 223028 89326 28054 57201 350 274 3447
941860 213423 173006 207559 243761 104111 30374 67982 1913 421 3421
900326 196277 134290 188677 257360 123722 26395 85129 6061 807 5331
823118 167851 102925 164145 238768 149430 27808 97801 13869 3261 6691
794959 157230 74274 128750 240281 194424 28609 120894 27864 9129 7929
788108 139083 49602 111020 226615 261787 29347 154971 45147 19191 13131
765019 130204 40617 91426 229774 272997 30113 152833 52085 21328 16638
769894 124611 37067 74901 244047 289268 30748 153328 59716 24186 21289
0.1 -5.3 2.9 2.5 1.9 3.3 1.9 3.9 39.8 10.7 0.7
-1.3 -2.4 -5.1 -2.3 -0.2 3.7 -0.9 3.7 21.9 22.7 6.9
-0.4 -1.9 -7.0 -3.8 -0.5 5.8 0.5 4.7 12.5 19.4 7.0
-0.2 -1.1 -2.9 -3.9 0.7 1.0 0.5 -0.1 2.8 2.3 5.0
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
756079 81846 535645 508460 27185 135121 3323
738600 79338 512185 494000 18185 145288 1508
826299 98645 533039 513725 19314 192531 1686
986048 126639 599851 581995 17856 257366 971
993775 121637 580101 578807 1294 288455 99
1049020 125196 609993 612244 -2251 307433 -613
1045650 121958 607583 615836 -8253 300537 -1684
1059959 132684 600309 612364 -12054 314560 -1781
1039025 128533 577898 594438 -16540 318488 -1867
0.9 1.9 0.0 0.1 -3.4 3.6 -6.6
1.9 2.1 0.8 1.2 -23.7 4.1 -24.7
0.5 0.0 0.5 0.6
-0.1 0.5 -0.5 -0.4
0.4
0.6
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
1660159 452940 631058 294905 202589 3323 75343
1662517 364248 650858 333268 223028 1508 89606
1723099 321007 658727 393417 243761 1686 104501
1825989 319922 676859 445998 257360 971 124880
1766841 289488 632974 452600 238768 99 152912
1792110 282427 632398 436183 240281 -613 201435
1781235 261040 604663 411558 226615 -1684 279043
1771306 262888 587254 405987 229774 -1781 287184
1753902 253144 559948 393388 244047 -1867 305242
0.4 -3.4 0.4 2.9 1.9 -6.6 3.3
0.3 -1.0 -0.4 1.4 -0.2 -24.7 3.9
0.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.9 -0.5
-0.2 -0.3 -0.8 -0.5 0.7
6.2
0.9
27.3 38.0 17.8 12.2 4.5
21.9 39.1 20.0 13.4 5.4
18.6 38.2 22.8 14.1 6.1
17.5 37.1 24.4 14.1 6.8
16.4 35.8 25.6 13.5 8.7
15.8 35.3 24.3 13.4 11.2
14.7 33.9 23.1 12.7 15.7
14.8 33.2 22.9 13.0 16.2
14.4 31.9 22.4 13.9 17.4
2562823 358053
2712209 383048
2991720 408040
3274121 429777
3306096 398056
3531372 420619
3709250 443863
3931041 477498
4073010 491490
1.6 1.3
1.0 -0.2
1.2 1.1
0.9 1.0
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
383492 263837 54404 56754 5724 2774 0
362334 230040 51463 67806 10033 2992 0
382613 223012 39294 102408 14960 2939 0
424208 229245 29780 134637 25901 4645 0
412779 219240 15932 138639 33081 5886 0
411520 213333 15190 131139 45300 6558 0
406826 193298 10484 122841 69665 10538 0
420747 195169 11109 129294 70890 14285 0
411570 185794 9431 124355 72868 19122 0
0.0 -1.7 -3.2 6.1 10.1 0.6
0.8 -0.2 -8.6 3.1 8.3 7.2
-0.1 -1.3 -4.1 -1.2 7.7 6.0
0.1 -0.4 -1.1 0.1 0.5 6.1
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
839073 679426 2 32960 126685
814654 705954 202 23240 85258
827098 735244 610 19323 71921
842975 758152 3129 16212 65482
794223 716308 11801 17556 48559
804087 721887 19057 16243 46901
790118 699235 29621 15221 46041
776367 685382 32029 13851 45105
756267 662438 35625 13353 44851
-0.1 0.8 79.6 -5.2 -5.5
-0.4 -0.3 34.5 -1.0 -3.9
-0.1 -0.2 9.6 -1.4 -0.5
-0.4 -0.5 1.9 -1.3 -0.3 -0.6
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Energy Branch Consumption
82379
88696
88176
96033
92378
90544
88773
87375
83701
0.7
0.5
-0.4
Non-Energy Uses
97931
110541
112495
117477
111365
114991
117065
117759
118736
1.4
-0.1
0.5
0.1
1068710
1069989
1112989
1173676
1169000
1207870
1216152
1204347
1189353
0.4
0.5
0.4
-0.2
365650 234722 130928 264307 158484 280269
328513 214526 113987 280418 160442 300617
326949 213112 113837 286784 159866 339389
326308 210991 115317 308104 176859 362405
313247 193770 119477 309183 176217 370354
322797 196394 126403 316386 180998 387688
330376 198371 132005 313609 179482 392685
334260 197691 136569 301904 175921 392262
336912 196806 140106 295839 174011 382591
-1.1 -1.0 -1.4 0.8 0.1 1.9
-0.4 -0.9 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9
0.5 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.6
0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3
125031 444429 227902 184145 48610 38592 0
84977 456959 245996 193367 44616 44073 0
61454 478880 265552 216403 40061 50639 0
54486 495857 283524 237537 44441 57830 0
44398 475332 284161 240622 58961 65500 27
44209 476930 276114 258395 67607 84548 67
43577 458953 259289 270699 72883 110611 141
43912 446056 243820 286872 76671 106890 127
43270 425602 233521 298025 79237 109619 79
-6.9 0.7 1.5 1.6 -1.9 2.8
-3.2 -0.1 0.7 1.1 3.9 2.6
-0.2 -0.4 -0.9 1.2 2.1 5.4 18.1
-0.1 -0.8 -1.0 1.0 0.8 -0.1 -5.6
87370
104626
132875
181411
250316
257237
271877
4.3
6.5
0.8
5063.6
4836.1 2179.6 3740.4 1302.8 158.7 493.7 481.1 253.5 1050.6 280.3 815.4
4708.0 2116.2 3665.0 1255.6 146.2 474.9 466.8 240.7 1080.7 293.9 749.2
4409.7 1970.4 3403.5 1103.7 132.8 459.9 424.6 219.4 1063.1 310.4 695.9
4359.1 2001.3 3345.0 1124.1 127.8 453.6 385.4 200.5 1053.6 320.5 693.7
4211.8 1943.2 3193.7 1068.8 119.0 450.5 358.8 185.0 1011.6 328.6 689.5
-0.9
-0.5
3810.6 1320.8 170.2 623.0 466.2 242.0 988.5 299.3 953.7
5129.6 2438.2 3946.6 1381.1 181.6 581.9 486.7 262.2 1053.1 304.5 878.5
-0.6 -1.2 1.1 -2.2 -0.7 -2.1 2.0 -1.0 -2.0
-0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -2.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 -0.7 -1.6
-0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -1.6 -1.8 -0.7 -1.2 -1.4 0.1 1.0 -1.6
-0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -1.1 -0.2 -1.7 -1.7 -0.5 0.6 -0.1
91.5
92.7
87.4
85.1
79.7
78.8
76.1
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
5532.3 4030.6 1484.3 152.2 781.4 499.4 300.5 812.7 329.5 1172.1 100.0
3800.1 1321.2 171.0 678.1 481.6 275.3 872.9 306.8
Source: PRIMES
124
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)
EU27: REFERENCE SCENARIO
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
470.388 8142.7 203.9 2.43 44.6
477.010 8748.4 190.0 2.29 43.5
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
481.072 10107.2 170.5 2.21 46.8
489.211 11063.1 165.1 2.16 52.5
499.389 11385.6 155.2 2.12 54.7
507.727 12750.3 140.6 2.05 56.9
513.838 14164.0 125.8 1.91 57.0
517.811 15503.7 114.3 1.89 58.1
519.942 16824.7 104.2 1.82 57.4
994.8 9.8
1160.9 10.5
1215.4 10.7
1421.6 11.1
1727.4 12.2
1910.7 12.3
1967.0 11.7
0.2 2.2 -1.8 -0.9
0.4 1.2 -0.9 -0.4
0.3 2.2 -2.1 -1.0
0.1 1.7 -1.9 -0.5
2.0
3.6
1.3
130.3 114.4 126.5 39.6 47.1
115.2 113.2 117.0 39.5 46.8
100.0 100.0 100.0 40.3 46.3
95.1 97.5 99.4 39.5 46.5
90.5 97.2 95.3 38.0 46.1
84.5 88.4 86.6 35.4 45.8
78.4 79.3 77.0 33.7 44.2
72.9 70.5 68.7 31.6 42.5
68.3 64.1 62.3 29.1 40.3
-2.6 -1.3 -2.3 0.2 -0.2
-1.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1
-1.4 -2.0 -2.1 -1.2 -0.4
-1.4 -2.1 -2.1 -1.5 -0.9
0.46 2.24 2.14 1.89 1.90 2.90
0.40 2.16 2.06 1.72 1.72 2.90
0.37 2.08 1.91 1.63 1.51 2.91
0.35 2.03 1.78 1.58 1.48 2.91
0.31 1.95 1.58 1.56 1.44 2.84
0.28 1.87 1.47 1.48 1.33 2.79
0.23 1.78 1.39 1.35 1.22 2.71
0.22 1.74 1.36 1.28 1.14 2.69
0.21 1.69 1.34 1.21 1.06 2.64
-2.1 -0.7 -1.1 -1.5 -2.2 0.0
-1.8 -0.7 -1.9 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3
-3.0 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 -0.5
-1.2 -0.5 -0.4 -1.1 -1.4 -0.2
7.6 0.5
8.6 1.4
11.0 4.2
14.6 6.5
20.0 10.0
20.7 10.9
22.2 12.5
2991720 944823 944939 169709 507154 44772 353183 22246 116 4778
3274121 997519 980774 133406 693902 84256 306916 70473 1447 5427
3306096 925964 911488 73737 765580 120424 323347 161262 16933 7361
3531372 933009 910809 69550 748830 171463 332658 324004 32193 8856
3709250 884705 844706 48115 722561 261200 341246 524963 62458 19297
3931041 914083 877735 47469 757661 274652 350147 605644 76790 26860
4073010 982494 857577 40234 724312 285967 357538 694373 94488 36026
1.0 -0.2 -0.4 -8.0 4.2 10.4 -0.9 21.9 64.6 4.4
1.2 -0.5 -0.8 -4.2 -0.6 8.1 0.5 12.5 13.9 10.1
0.9 1.1 0.2 -1.8 0.0 0.9 0.5 2.8 4.2 6.4
654125 133923 112878 99714 12793 371 0 407324 77070 0 194165 129444 71058 12051 0 605
715734 134409 147262 104505 40584 2172 1 434063 84892 0 186620 167173 62082 17502 0 686
815695 127038 209260 107334 86404 15272 249 479397 99221 0 182723 215960 55832 24091 0 792
920003 126752 282909 110738 143642 27911 619 510341 113653 0 182220 243318 44426 39502 0 875
1003260 123297 388505 114158 222085 48639 3623 491458 115164 5394 160822 237940 36621 54673 0 1403
1041059 115200 428770 115386 248331 59787 5267 497089 125887 5729 147727 253608 33637 60217 0 1901
1110853 123612 476615 117780 279733 72022 7080 510626 135406 5964 142194 268259 31478 66153 0 2543
2.2 -0.5 6.4 0.7 21.0 45.0 1.6 2.6
2.1 -0.3 6.4 0.6 9.9 12.3 30.7 0.2 1.5
-0.6 5.3 -2.4 7.2
-1.3 1.0 -4.1 8.5
1.0 0.0 2.1 0.3 2.3 4.0 6.9 0.4 1.6 1.0 -1.2 1.2 -1.5 1.9
2.7
5.9
6.1
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
49.1
49.1
44.0
41.8
40.2
41.1
39.9
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
37.6 11.4 0.0 45.8 31.6 14.2
38.5 11.7 0.0 44.8 30.5 14.3
39.1 14.9 0.0 47.0 28.0 19.0
39.9 18.2 0.0 51.0 26.4 24.6
39.9 18.4 1.4 56.4 23.9 32.6
40.4 19.0 1.4 57.2 23.3 33.9
40.3 19.3 1.4 60.2 24.1 36.1
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
4880.7 544.0 3501.1 472.5 317.3 45.8
5307.7 504.0 3986.3 421.7 351.3 44.4
5892.2 517.6 4428.1 447.9 456.9 41.7
6240.3 526.0 4686.5 461.0 527.3 39.5
6511.3 545.0 4866.1 482.5 576.9 40.8
7124.9 574.0 5288.7 523.0 696.7 42.3
7555.4 600.7 5532.8 564.2 814.1 43.7
7986.6 623.3 5776.4 604.9 937.0 45.0
8389.8 641.7 6003.9 643.1 1054.9 46.2
1.9 -0.5 2.4 -0.5 3.7 -0.9
1.0 0.5 0.9 0.7 2.4 -0.2
1.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 3.5 0.7
1.1 0.7 0.8 1.3 2.6 0.6
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
1848.4 1060.4 526.3 261.6
1942.4 1288.7 386.1 267.6
2195.7 1518.7 403.7 273.3
2494.6 1800.3 414.1 280.2
2662.6 1940.3 440.5 281.9
2958.0 2171.6 488.2 298.2
3124.6 2284.4 525.3 314.9
3292.3 2407.1 555.1 330.1
3438.9 2517.0 579.6 342.2
1.7 3.7 -2.6 0.4
1.9 2.5 0.9 0.3
1.6 1.6 1.8 1.1
1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
280269 5197 154395 74969 9560 29038 7110
300617 4732 166321 79037 9452 34112 6963
339389 4914 182974 90951 9600 45395 5555
362405 5039 187736 105104 9436 49703 5386
370354 5179 186470 111595 9652 51992 5466
387688 5312 184834 123528 10172 58165 5679
392685 5293 181619 126197 10003 63638 5935
392262 5202 176494 128168 9677 66535 6187
382591 5071 168352 127810 8522 66467 6369
1.9 -0.6 1.7 2.0 0.0 4.6 -2.4
0.9 0.5 0.2 2.1 0.1 1.4 -0.2
0.6 0.2 -0.3 1.2 0.4 2.0 0.8
-0.3 -0.4 -0.8 0.1 -1.6 0.4 0.7
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
125
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Austria: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
8207 644 1295 1097 0 5172 2709 2445 0 15 4
8711 305 1108 1261 0 6037 3187 2809 0 36 5
9820 293 1116 1533 0 6879 3598 3189 6 64 23
9653 0 986 1403 0 7263 3085 3937 114 92 35
10310 0 957 1475 0 7878 3238 4246 218 164 13
11117 0 850 1270 0 8997 3456 4819 351 353 18
11804 0 620 740 0 10444 3592 5760 451 608 32
11597 0 280 670 0 10647 3676 5798 502 621 50
11984 0 230 600 0 11154 3873 5964 574 667 76
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
17306 3112 9741 8043 1699 4443 -40
18028 2550 10264 8309 1955 5404 -212
19106 3019 11001 7975 3026 5253 -118
24658 3959 13322 8225 5098 7203 229
23645 3520 12743 8213 4529 7124 279
22779 3230 12795 8302 4493 6643 38
22098 3221 12211 8255 3956 6521 -13
22047 3181 11769 8320 3449 6813 -20
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
25258 4042 10863 5184 0 -40 5208
27054 3344 11485 6374 0 -212 6063
29046 3592 12223 6519 0 -118 6829
34105 4039 14455 8178 0 229 7204
33955 3520 13700 8599 0 279 7857
33896 3230 13645 7913 0 38 9070
33902 3221 12831 7261 0 -13 10603
16.0 43.0 20.5 0.0 20.6
12.4 42.5 23.6 0.0 22.4
12.4 42.1 22.4 0.0 23.5
11.8 42.4 24.0 0.0 21.1
10.4 40.3 25.3 0.0 23.1
9.5 40.3 23.3 0.0 26.8
49287 5257
55170 5042
59854 5269
62963 7556
63522 7683
4007 1510 488 1776 233 0 0
4309 1055 489 2321 444 0 0
3901 1239 279 1961 421 0 0
5473 1510 270 2901 790 2 0
11637 9317 2 347 1971
11680 9445 5 439 1790
11550 9077 9 554 1910
Energy Branch Consumption
1774
1883
Non-Energy Uses
1554
1318
19124
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
1.8 -7.6 -1.5 3.4
0.5
1.4
0.2
-1.5 -0.4
-4.2 -6.7
-9.4 -2.1
15.7 20.3
1.4 -1.0 2.9 43.8 9.9 -5.9
2.9 1.0 3.1 7.5 14.0 9.9
0.7 0.8 0.3 2.4 0.9 9.0
21332 3385 10998 8071 2927 6591 -4
1.0 -0.3 1.2 -0.1 5.9 1.7
2.2 1.5 1.5 0.3 4.1 3.1
-0.7 -0.9 -0.4 0.1 -1.3 -0.9
-0.4 0.5 -1.0 -0.2 -3.0 0.1
33645 3181 12049 7483 0 -20 10952
33316 3385 11228 7191 0 -4 11516
1.4 -1.2 1.2 2.3
1.6 -0.2 1.1 2.8
0.0 -0.9 -0.7 -1.7
-0.2 0.5 -1.3 -0.1
2.7
1.4
3.0
0.8
9.5 37.8 21.4 0.0 31.3
9.5 35.8 22.2 0.0 32.6
10.2 33.7 21.6 0.0 34.6
69903 8412
73066 8831
78894 9370
82118 9806
2.0 0.0
0.6 3.8
1.4 1.4
1.2 1.1
4968 1377 164 2526 895 7 0
5199 1141 166 2216 1667 10 0
5507 1146 170 1810 2363 18 0
6304 1154 100 2598 2417 35 0
6495 1161 173 2542 2559 61 0
-0.3 -2.0 -5.4 1.0 6.1
2.4 1.1 -5.2 2.6 7.8
1.0 -1.8 0.4 -3.3 10.2 9.9
1.7 0.1 0.1 3.5 0.8 13.2
12088 9374 42 663 2009
11921 9171 245 769 1735
11951 9153 385 753 1660
11832 8875 607 722 1628
11446 8600 736 532 1578
11161 8301 873 306 1681
-0.1 -0.3 17.5 4.8 -0.3
0.3 0.1 39.6 3.3 -1.0
-0.1 -0.3 9.5 -0.6 -0.6
-0.6 -0.7 3.7 -8.2 0.3
1924
2375
2217
2095
1999
1927
1852
0.8
1.4
-1.0
-0.8
1576
1591
1526
1582
1613
1629
1648
0.1
-0.3
0.6
0.2
21062
23122
27107
27540
28309
28368
27881
27644
1.9
1.8
0.3
-0.3
6366 4194 2172 5801 2412 4545
6684 4189 2495 6244 2934 5200
7757 5033 2723 5995 3290 6081
8601 5447 3154 6657 3814 8034
8658 5135 3522 6906 3850 8127
8611 5006 3605 7215 4092 8391
8697 5033 3664 7148 4150 8373
8718 5021 3697 6885 4108 8170
8852 5057 3796 6707 4152 7932
2.0 1.8 2.3 0.3 3.2 3.0
1.1 0.2 2.6 1.4 1.6 2.9
0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.3
0.2 0.0 0.4 -0.6 0.0 -0.5
1785 7929 2968 3629 612 2201 0
1582 8779 3607 3952 848 2294 0
1399 9465 4265 4417 1025 2552 0
1497 11829 4788 4831 1324 2838 0
1228 11364 5502 4928 1453 3065 1
1229 11468 5273 5170 2028 3141 1
1224 10789 5032 5356 2243 3721 2
1176 10152 4476 5807 2254 4012 3
1165 9535 4333 6063 2321 4225 2
-2.4 1.8 3.7 2.0 5.3 1.5
-1.3 1.8 2.6 1.1 3.6 1.8
0.0 -0.5 -0.9 0.8 4.4 2.0 13.2
-0.5 -1.2 -1.5 1.2 0.3 1.3 -3.3
6012
6593
7033
8644
9965
10210
10665
84.6 61.3 11.5 4.5 15.6 8.5 3.9 17.3 8.1 15.2
97.2 37.0 74.1 15.0 5.0 17.4 9.1 4.4 23.2 9.1 14.0
92.8 32.8 70.8 13.2 4.4 16.8 9.4 4.2 22.8 8.5 13.5
89.3 30.4 67.7 11.5 3.3 16.2 9.4 4.2 23.1 8.8 12.8
85.3 29.7 63.6 10.5 2.9 15.8 8.3 3.7 22.4 9.4 12.3
83.7 31.3 61.5 12.1 2.7 14.7 7.5 3.2 21.3 9.8 12.3
81.3 31.2 58.9 11.5 2.6 14.9 6.9 2.9 20.2 10.2 12.2
104.8
120.5
115.0
110.7
105.7
103.7
100.8
2.9 2.9 2.7
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
80.7 55.7 12.8 4.0 13.1 9.9 3.3 12.7 8.0 17.0 100.0
58.9 12.3 4.4 13.9 9.7 4.0 14.6 7.7
1.6
3.5
0.7
0.5
0.9
1.0 -1.1 1.1 1.8 -1.4 1.6 3.1 0.2 -1.1
1.4 1.4 -0.1 0.7 1.0 0.8 2.8 0.5 -1.1
-0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -2.3 -4.0 -0.6 -1.2 -1.3 -0.2 1.0 -0.9
-0.5 0.5 -0.8 0.9 -1.1 -0.6 -1.9 -2.4 -1.0 0.9 -0.1
Source: PRIMES
126
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Austria: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
7.645 174.5 144.8 2.21 68.5
7.943 194.2 139.3 2.18 66.6
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
8.002 225.0 129.1 2.11 65.8
8.207 244.5 139.5 2.17 72.3
8.405 254.5 133.4 2.08 69.6
8.570 281.9 120.2 2.00 67.2
8.723 310.4 109.2 1.88 65.2
8.866 337.7 99.6 1.83 65.5
8.988 363.5 91.7 1.77 64.0
19.2 8.5
24.8 10.1
27.6 10.8
32.5 11.5
38.3 12.3
41.8 12.4
42.9 11.8
0.5 2.6 -1.1 -0.4
0.5 1.2 0.3 -0.1
0.4 2.0 -2.0 -1.0
0.3 1.6 -1.7 -0.6
3.7
3.3
1.2
102.4 118.1 96.4 37.1 44.2
102.2 114.6 103.2 36.2 46.3
100.0 100.0 100.0 37.9 45.4
100.8 102.5 106.0 45.8 59.0
96.6 103.3 102.7 44.3 57.1
86.4 97.6 98.0 40.6 56.2
79.5 88.1 89.9 38.0 53.4
73.0 78.7 81.6 34.8 50.7
68.8 71.7 76.6 32.3 47.6
-0.2 -1.7 0.4 0.2 0.3
-0.3 0.3 0.3 1.6 2.3
-1.9 -1.6 -1.3 -1.5 -0.7
-1.4 -2.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.1
0.22 2.04 2.06 1.70 1.36 2.80
0.19 2.01 2.08 1.55 1.37 2.81
0.16 1.96 2.02 1.42 1.17 2.85
0.19 2.00 2.02 1.36 1.16 2.89
0.16 1.93 1.94 1.36 1.09 2.80
0.12 1.87 1.88 1.31 1.02 2.75
0.10 1.77 1.82 1.16 0.88 2.67
0.11 1.67 1.68 1.08 0.78 2.61
0.10 1.62 1.68 1.02 0.69 2.54
-3.5 -0.4 -0.2 -1.8 -1.5 0.2
0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2
-4.5 -0.9 -0.6 -1.6 -2.0 -0.5
0.0 -0.9 -0.8 -1.3 -2.4 -0.5
25.4 3.7
23.7 2.9
24.8 6.0
29.6 8.4
34.0 11.8
35.4 14.0
37.2 16.9
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
59854 0 5924 1096 9407 1524 41832 67 3 0
62963 0 6964 1130 15163 2494 35868 1328 14 3
63522 0 5885 858 13450 3079 37651 2538 49 11
69903 0 5247 867 12236 7096 40188 4086 169 14
73066 0 5270 891 9977 9575 41769 5246 314 24
78894 0 5418 449 14092 9788 42746 5839 519 43
82118 0 5359 671 13236 10317 45033 6680 747 74
0.6
1.4
1.2
-0.1 -2.4 3.6 7.3 -1.0 43.8 32.3
-1.1 0.4 -2.9 12.0 1.0 7.5 20.3 7.8
0.2 -2.8 2.9 0.7 0.8 2.4 9.1 12.1
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
14171 0 7951 7892 54 5 0 6220 2284 0 1865 3102 951 301 0 1
15139 0 8568 7719 827 22 0 6571 2668 0 1708 3441 950 471 0 1
16863 0 9814 8360 1388 66 0 7049 2228 0 1618 4129 885 416 0 1
19941 0 11835 9795 1897 143 0 8106 3254 0 1604 4597 558 1346 0 2
20347 0 12906 10302 2342 261 0 7442 3420 0 1596 3887 265 1690 0 3
20050 0 13450 10400 2619 431 0 6600 3457 0 741 3876 263 1715 0 5
20781 0 14392 10778 3001 613 0 6388 4032 0 734 3790 187 1669 0 8
1.8
1.9
0.2
2.1 0.6 38.4 29.4
2.8 2.1 5.4 14.8
1.1 0.5 2.5 8.9
1.3 -0.2
0.5 4.4
-1.5 1.7
-1.4 2.9 -0.7 3.3
-0.1 -0.6 -11.4 15.1
-7.5 -0.3 -3.4 -0.1
0.0
7.8
12.1
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
46.8
44.8
40.6
37.6
38.5
42.3
42.5
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
39.6 11.3 0.0 72.6 0.0 72.6
40.5 17.0 0.0 63.1 0.0 63.1
40.3 15.3 0.0 68.2 0.0 68.2
42.1 27.3 0.0 73.7 0.0 73.7
40.2 28.6 0.0 77.9 0.0 77.9
40.6 27.5 0.0 74.7 0.0 74.7
39.3 28.0 0.0 76.5 0.0 76.5
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
80.3 7.9 56.4 11.7 4.2 0.0
90.3 8.7 63.0 13.4 5.0 0.0
95.6 9.2 67.8 12.3 6.1 0.0
101.1 9.3 71.9 12.8 7.0 0.0
104.9 9.9 73.5 13.4 8.1 0.0
113.5 10.6 78.4 14.5 10.0 0.0
119.8 11.2 80.8 15.6 12.1 0.0
126.1 11.7 83.4 16.5 14.4 0.0
131.9 12.1 86.1 17.3 16.4 0.0
1.8 1.5 1.9 0.5 3.9 -2.3
0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 2.8 -0.5
1.3 1.3 1.0 1.6 4.1 0.9
1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 3.1 0.6
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
35.4 21.6 12.2 1.7
41.7 26.5 13.2 2.0
54.2 35.1 16.6 2.4
57.8 37.0 19.0 1.8
61.0 37.7 21.5 1.8
67.2 41.4 23.8 2.0
71.5 43.5 25.8 2.1
74.5 45.0 27.3 2.3
77.1 46.5 28.1 2.4
4.4 5.0 3.2 3.9
1.2 0.7 2.6 -3.0
1.6 1.4 1.9 1.8
0.8 0.7 0.9 1.2
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
4545 74 2570 1301 283 310 7
5200 79 2699 1646 309 461 6
6081 82 2922 2152 333 586 6
8034 82 3839 3118 311 675 9
8127 86 3762 3160 340 769 9
8391 90 3602 3433 363 894 10
8373 90 3438 3467 368 1000 11
8170 89 3171 3430 364 1105 11
7932 86 2958 3353 336 1186 12
3.0 1.0 1.3 5.2 1.6 6.6 -1.5
2.9 0.4 2.6 3.9 0.2 2.8 4.4
0.3 0.5 -0.9 0.9 0.8 2.7 1.5
-0.5 -0.4 -1.5 -0.3 -0.9 1.7 1.0
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
127
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Belgium: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
13112 1085 0 10 10707 1310 23 1285 1 1 1
12734 269 0 0 10340 2125 29 2093 1 1 1
15509 191 0 2 12422 2894 39 2848 1 1 4
15450 57 6 0 12277 3110 25 3061 20 3 1
15753 13 0 0 12382 3358 31 3090 217 17 2
16954 12 0 0 12531 4412 33 3779 444 152 4
18734 10 0 0 12405 6318 35 4992 847 431 13
9998 16 0 0 5391 4591 37 3114 1035 396 9
5006 16 0 0 0 4990 38 3450 1153 342 7
1.7 -16.0
0.2 -23.5
1.7 -2.2
-12.4 4.1
-14.3 1.5 8.2 5.6 8.3 7.9 2.1 14.0
0.0 1.5 -2.2 0.8 67.0 32.5 -7.6
0.0 6.5 1.1 4.9 14.6 38.0 22.7
-2.3 0.9 -3.6 3.1 -2.3 -5.8
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
39625 9493 22236 26896 -4660 8217 -320
46863 9343 26667 26573 94 10418 350
50812 7566 29491 34067 -4576 13278 372
53775 5511 32623 32206 417 14817 542
48957 4292 29696 31702 -2006 14064 672
49995 4705 29975 31984 -2009 14202 785
48667 4618 28627 30790 -2164 13795 997
53740 7000 27916 30189 -2273 17221 1178
56174 9376 27021 29402 -2381 18178 1173
2.5 -2.2 2.9 2.4
-0.4 -5.5 0.1 -0.7
-0.1 0.7 -0.4 -0.3
1.4 7.3 -0.6 -0.5
4.9
0.6 6.1
-0.2 4.0
2.8 1.6
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
48607 10244 18497 8169 10707 -320 1310
54940 8551 22877 10611 10340 350 2210
61461 8200 24100 13369 12422 372 2998
61147 5450 24747 14740 12277 542 3391
57326 4305 22312 14064 12382 672 3590
59370 4717 22396 14202 12531 785 4740
59727 4628 20953 13795 12405 997 6948
55863 7016 20042 17221 5391 1178 5016
53049 9391 18890 18178 0 1173 5417
2.4 -2.2 2.7 5.0 1.5
0.4 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 4.0 6.8
-1.2 7.3 -1.0 2.8
8.6
-0.7 -6.2 -0.8 0.5 0.0 6.1 1.8
21.1 38.1 16.8 22.0 2.7
15.6 41.6 19.3 18.8 4.0
13.3 39.2 21.8 20.2 4.9
8.9 40.5 24.1 20.1 5.5
7.5 38.9 24.5 21.6 6.3
7.9 37.7 23.9 21.1 8.0
7.7 35.1 23.1 20.8 11.6
12.6 35.9 30.8 9.7 9.0
17.7 35.6 34.3 0.0 10.2
70202 7382
73524 7800
82639 7825
85695 8266
84692 8119
89521 8584
93744 9237
101084 10154
106591 11592
1.6 0.6
0.2 0.4
1.0 1.3
1.3 2.3
6544 3875 318 1983 368 0 0
7182 3764 232 2721 465 0 0
7493 3025 186 3790 492 0 0
7733 1889 411 4612 821 0 0
6566 1624 187 3936 819 0 0
6953 1862 286 3815 988 0 0
7216 1798 363 3034 2021 0 0
12104 4229 683 5482 1710 0 0
15470 6581 724 6218 1947 0 0
1.4 -2.4 -5.2 6.7 2.9
-1.3 -6.0 0.1 0.4 5.2
0.9 1.0 6.8 -2.6 9.5
7.9 13.9 7.2 7.4 -0.4
35940 29821 0 10 6109
33857 29532 0 5 4320
42146 38492 0 41 3612
40638 37438 0 27 3173
37844 35111 175 1 2557
38626 35430 448 1 2747
37541 33929 874 1 2738
36252 32787 860 0 2605
35145 31566 964 0 2615
1.6 2.6
-1.1 -0.9
-0.7 -0.7 1.0
15.3 -5.1
-35.1 -3.4
-0.1 -0.3 17.5 0.0 0.7
Energy Branch Consumption
2307
2270
2367
2125
1882
1921
1877
1793
1817
0.3
-2.3
0.0
-0.3
Non-Energy Uses
2749
5513
6865
7495
6295
6765
7124
7106
7329
9.6
-0.9
1.2
0.3
32071
36073
39131
38443
37099
38725
38901
37669
36980
2.0
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
12591 9987 2604 8360 3390 7730
13612 10689 2923 9320 4631 8511
15762 12028 3734 9491 4167 9710
13563 10578 2986 9938 5017 9926
12103 8853 3250 10011 5146 9840
13211 9471 3740 10207 5372 9935
13651 9639 4012 10097 5365 9787
13082 9207 3875 9709 5261 9617
13104 9106 3999 9339 5265 9272
2.3 1.9 3.7 1.3 2.1 2.3
-2.6 -3.0 -1.4 0.5 2.1 0.1
1.2 0.9 2.1 0.1 0.4 -0.1
-0.4 -0.6 0.0 -0.8 -0.2 -0.5
3787 14927 7249 4986 213 909 0
3306 16434 8517 5885 220 1710 0
3378 16130 10010 6667 490 2454 0
2080 16529 10009 6894 427 2503 0
1681 15758 9655 6977 516 2511 1
1757 15619 9650 7461 978 3258 2
1745 14413 9422 7985 1310 4022 3
1797 13582 10040 8728 1310 2210 2
1811 12621 9887 9083 1324 2253 2
-1.1 0.8 3.3 2.9 8.7 10.4
-6.7 -0.2 -0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2
0.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 9.8 4.8 16.0
0.4 -1.3 0.5 1.3 0.1 -5.6 -5.3
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
1.6 -2.5
-0.5
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
139.9
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
106.4 21.8 5.3 30.3 18.7 7.6 22.7 9.0 24.4
112.6 23.0 5.1 28.8 20.1 10.5 25.0 10.0
535
910
1396
2843
4863
3570
3912
146.5 115.0 22.6 5.3 30.1 20.1 8.2 28.8 10.2 21.3
135.8 61.4 107.7 20.6 4.1 22.7 20.4 10.5 29.5 9.8 18.3
125.7 50.8 97.9 17.1 2.9 18.5 20.1 10.7 28.7 9.1 18.8
125.7 51.5 98.8 18.0 2.8 19.0 19.8 11.0 28.2 10.3 16.6
120.0 50.4 92.4 16.2 2.6 18.9 17.8 10.5 26.4 11.1 16.5
135.2 67.9 107.4 32.4 2.3 21.2 15.6 10.0 25.9 11.3 16.5
143.6 79.5 115.2 43.6 2.2 21.4 13.6 9.8 24.5 11.9 16.6
104.7
97.1
89.9
89.8
85.8
96.6
102.7
10.1
13.3
-2.2
0.5
-1.5
0.8 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.7 0.8 2.4 1.2 -1.4
-1.6 -2.8 -6.0 -4.8 0.0 2.7 0.0 -1.2 -1.3
-0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.9 0.2 -1.2 -0.1 -0.8 2.1 -1.3
1.8 4.7 2.2 10.4 -1.6 1.3 -2.6 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.1
Source: PRIMES
128
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Belgium: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
9.948 221.2 219.7 2.19 75.2
10.131 244.0 225.2 2.05 79.6
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
10.239 278.8 220.4 1.87 76.1
10.446 302.1 202.4 1.76 78.2
10.784 311.4 184.1 1.71 75.7
11.070 351.5 168.9 1.66 74.7
11.322 389.5 153.3 1.55 72.2
11.547 423.2 132.0 1.92 84.3
11.745 458.5 115.7 2.17 91.8
31.6 11.3
35.0 11.6
35.0 11.2
40.3 11.5
49.8 12.8
55.0 13.0
56.7 12.4
0.3 2.3 0.0 -1.6
0.5 1.1 -1.8 -0.9
0.5 2.3 -1.8 -1.0
0.4 1.6 -2.8 3.4
1.0
3.6
1.3
91.3 109.5 98.1 45.4 50.6
100.2 110.3 124.2 44.2 49.1
100.0 100.0 100.0 46.5 50.5
85.7 99.3 108.9 46.4 52.4
77.9 99.3 109.6 44.4 51.8
72.0 93.1 99.9 40.7 51.4
66.2 85.2 90.0 38.3 49.4
60.2 76.2 80.4 35.4 47.5
55.5 68.7 74.1 32.2 45.1
0.9 -0.9 0.2 0.3 0.0
-2.5 -0.1 0.9 -0.5 0.3
-1.6 -1.5 -1.9 -1.5 -0.5
-1.7 -2.1 -1.9 -1.7 -0.9
0.30 2.47 2.41 2.24 2.23 2.94
0.30 2.34 2.11 2.16 2.26 2.94
0.25 2.23 1.91 2.11 1.96 2.96
0.22 2.16 1.67 2.05 2.09 2.97
0.18 2.10 1.53 2.01 2.07 2.92
0.17 2.01 1.44 1.94 2.04 2.83
0.14 1.89 1.38 1.76 1.96 2.70
0.27 1.93 1.62 1.60 1.89 2.70
0.35 1.88 1.63 1.46 1.86 2.65
-1.6 -1.0 -2.3 -0.6 -1.3 0.1
-3.2 -0.6 -2.2 -0.5 0.6 -0.1
-2.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.3 -0.6 -0.8
9.2 -0.1 1.7 -1.9 -0.6 -0.2
1.3 0.0
2.3 0.0
3.7 2.2
7.2 5.5
12.2 11.1
9.2 11.1
10.3 12.9
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
82639 48148 13089 586 19024 1317 459 15 0 0
85695 47586 7774 1734 25013 3071 288 227 1 0
84692 48002 6125 1005 22708 3838 366 2529 118 0
89521 48578 7607 1364 21973 4281 388 5158 172 0
93744 48092 7309 1888 18144 7828 408 9844 232 0
101084 20899 21496 3201 34817 7951 428 12033 258 0
106591 0 39055 3363 41109 8935 447 13410 273 0
0.2 0.0 -7.3 5.5 1.8 11.3 -2.2 67.0
1.0 0.0 1.8 6.5 -2.2 7.4 1.1 14.6 7.0
1.3
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
13941 5801 117 103 14 0 0 8024 1394 0 1964 4891 632 537 0 0
14716 5817 285 116 167 2 0 8615 1680 0 1709 5710 639 556 0 0
17321 5941 1331 116 1062 153 0 10049 2142 0 1476 7117 653 803 0 0
18646 5941 2339 125 2036 178 0 10366 2854 0 1076 7273 679 1337 0 0
21192 5941 3942 138 3569 236 0 11309 2554 0 1079 7242 997 1992 0 0
23304 2516 4878 148 4468 262 0 15910 2998 0 2710 10096 1159 1945 0 0
24782 0 5396 150 4969 277 0 19386 3052 0 5484 11047 1172 1682 0 0
2.2 0.2 27.6 1.2 54.2
2.0 0.0 11.5 1.8 12.9 4.4
1.6
2.3 4.4
1.2 1.8
5.5 1.8
-2.8 3.8 0.3 4.1
-3.1 0.2 4.3 9.5
17.7 4.3 1.6 -1.7
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
64.6
63.6
53.6
52.6
48.5
47.6
46.8
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
39.0 6.8 0.0 60.4 58.3 2.2
41.8 8.8 0.0 59.7 55.5 4.2
44.1 12.4 0.0 64.8 56.7 8.1
43.6 17.1 0.0 65.4 54.3 11.2
41.9 17.8 0.0 70.8 51.3 19.5
47.9 19.2 0.0 41.1 20.7 20.4
51.4 17.8 0.0 21.6 0.0 21.6
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
18.2 5.9 8.5 1.3 0.9 3.1 1.7
3.2 0.8 3.4 1.7
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
116.4 11.4 90.5 7.3 6.6 0.7
127.3 13.1 99.1 7.6 7.0 0.5
137.1 13.3 106.5 8.6 8.4 0.3
145.6 17.5 110.1 10.1 7.6 0.3
152.3 18.9 113.6 11.1 8.3 0.3
164.8 20.0 122.3 12.5 9.7 0.3
170.8 20.8 124.7 13.5 11.5 0.3
177.8 21.2 128.9 14.2 13.1 0.3
184.5 21.5 133.2 14.8 14.7 0.3
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.4 -7.4
1.1 3.6 0.6 2.6 -0.1 -0.1
1.2 0.9 0.9 2.0 3.3 0.4
0.8 0.4 0.7 0.9 2.5 0.2
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
48.3 34.6 8.4 5.4
58.6 45.6 7.3 5.7
65.9 51.0 7.7 7.2
60.5 43.8 8.1 8.6
59.3 42.4 8.3 8.6
62.9 45.1 9.0 8.8
65.7 47.0 9.5 9.1
69.9 50.6 9.8 9.5
74.1 54.3 10.0 9.8
3.2 4.0 -0.9 3.0
-1.1 -1.8 0.8 1.8
1.0 1.0 1.4 0.5
1.2 1.4 0.5 0.7
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
7730 104 4157 2210 178 952 130
8511 118 4474 2523 202 945 248
9710 118 4677 3065 184 1530 136
9926 153 5260 2827 186 1281 218
9840 164 5209 2726 187 1334 220
9935 168 5049 2876 196 1423 223
9787 165 4769 2880 192 1552 229
9617 161 4552 2960 185 1523 236
9272 154 4232 2992 165 1488 241
2.3 1.3 1.2 3.3 0.3 4.9 0.5
0.1 3.3 1.1 -1.2 0.2 -1.4 4.9
-0.1 0.1 -0.9 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.4
-0.5 -0.7 -1.2 0.4 -1.5 -0.4 0.5
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
129
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Bulgaria: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
9136 5121 60 11 3783 161 161 0 0 0 0
10191 5287 43 40 4453 369 151 219 0 0 0
9846 4310 43 12 4689 792 230 562 0 0 0
10612 4178 30 384 4812 1207 373 801 0 0 33
9708 4376 26 237 3792 1277 350 849 35 3 41
10019 4363 25 200 3792 1639 354 1028 102 44 111
11559 3549 24 169 5624 2193 359 1360 167 95 213
12085 2302 23 143 7404 2212 365 1324 211 131 181
12812 2837 22 122 7404 2427 375 1425 231 156 240
0.8 -1.7 -3.4 1.3 2.2 17.2 3.6
-0.1 0.2 -4.8 34.4 -2.1 4.9 4.3 4.2
1.8 -2.1 -0.8 -3.3 4.0 5.6 0.3 4.8 16.9 40.7 18.0
1.0 -2.2 -0.9 -3.2 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.5 3.3 5.1 1.2
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
17836 3527 8553 8264 289 5430 326
13484 2424 6519 8021 -1502 4563 -14
8718 2258 4118 5389 -1271 2742 -397
9516 2550 5186 6423 -1237 2458 -652
9544 2724 4683 6281 -1599 2537 -359
9948 3111 5004 6700 -1696 2436 -536
9247 2756 4957 6649 -1693 2526 -887
9394 2873 4944 6644 -1699 2752 -1087
9174 2738 4756 6433 -1677 2881 -1120
-6.9 -4.4 -7.0 -4.2
0.9 1.9 1.3 1.5
-0.3 0.1 0.6 0.6
-0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3
-6.6
-0.8
0.0
1.3
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
27981 8706 9609 5395 3783 326 161
23312 7673 6253 4584 4453 -14 363
18647 6417 4218 2932 4689 -397 788
19984 6892 4947 2804 4812 -652 1182
19140 7101 4596 2774 3792 -359 1237
19843 7474 4905 2636 3792 -536 1572
20679 6305 4853 2695 5624 -887 2089
21347 5175 4835 2895 7404 -1087 2123
21849 5574 4641 3003 7404 -1120 2347
-4.0 -3.0 -7.9 -5.9 2.2
0.3 1.0 0.9 -0.6 -2.1
0.8 -1.2 0.5 -0.3 4.0
0.6 -1.2 -0.4 1.1 2.8
17.2
4.6
5.4
1.2
31.1 34.3 19.3 13.5 0.6
32.9 26.8 19.7 19.1 1.6
34.4 22.6 15.7 25.1 4.2
34.5 24.8 14.0 24.1 5.9
37.1 24.0 14.5 19.8 6.5
37.7 24.7 13.3 19.1 7.9
30.5 23.5 13.0 27.2 10.1
24.2 22.7 13.6 34.7 9.9
25.5 21.2 13.7 33.9 10.7
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
42133 9435
41219 11161
40639 10721
43964 9679
39688 8127
43063 7749
48527 7468
53438 7565
55949 7753
-0.4 1.3
-0.2 -2.7
2.0 -0.8
1.4 0.4
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
10103 6800 951 2352 0 0 0
9160 6734 612 1813 0 0 0
6281 5245 170 863 3 0 0
6520 5670 172 676 2 0 0
6281 5595 44 589 54 0 0
6727 5960 31 543 166 27 0
5845 4828 28 543 392 54 0
4818 3802 25 484 431 76 0
5446 4264 48 478 494 163 0
-4.6 -2.6 -15.8 -9.5
0.0 0.6 -12.6 -3.8 32.2
-0.7 -1.5 -4.4 -0.8 22.0
-0.7 -1.2 5.5 -1.3 2.3 11.6
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
13098 8358 0 2781 1960
11654 8040 0 1544 2069
7655 5449 0 324 1882
8936 6683 0 370 1883
7747 6459 23 361 903
8014 6876 48 173 917
7906 6800 129 89 888
7810 6781 137 65 827
7579 6555 233 0 791
-5.2 -4.2
0.1 1.7
-0.4 -0.4 6.1
-19.3 -0.4
1.1 -7.1
0.2 0.5 18.8 -13.0 -0.2
Energy Branch Consumption
1357
1457
1145
1278
1321
1316
1285
1302
1293
-1.7
1.4
-0.3
0.1
Non-Energy Uses
1427
1236
1264
1067
928
1008
1100
1168
1197
-1.2
-3.0
1.7
0.9
16102
11409
8602
9595
9802
10555
11020
11269
11400
-6.1
1.3
1.2
0.3
8969 5579 3390 2228 2382 2523
6034 4891 1143 2257 1139 1980
3652 2829 824 2165 962 1823
3720 2851 870 2145 1130 2599
3848 2825 1023 2132 1175 2647
4230 2956 1274 2162 1211 2953
4456 2986 1470 2187 1227 3151
4553 2966 1587 2144 1219 3352
4585 2905 1681 2092 1244 3478
-8.6 -6.6 -13.2 -0.3 -8.7 -3.2
0.5 0.0 2.2 -0.2 2.0 3.8
1.5 0.6 3.7 0.3 0.4 1.8
0.3 -0.3 1.3 -0.4 0.1 1.0
1477 4983 2066 3033 4543 0 0
1280 2900 1787 2467 2798 178 0
860 3004 1231 2075 877 555 0
951 3672 1025 2208 939 800 0
1138 3637 1143 2264 822 798 0
1152 3955 1233 2407 889 920 1
1129 3982 1280 2550 968 1109 2
1048 4029 1463 2767 934 1027 1
999 3900 1591 2935 907 1066 1
-5.3 -4.9 -5.0 -3.7 -15.2
2.8 1.9 -0.7 0.9 -0.6 3.7
-0.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.6 3.3 22.5
-1.2 -0.2 2.2 1.4 -0.6 -0.4 -3.9
737
958
1111
1420
1890
1887
2039
65.4 42.1 24.9 1.3 8.3 1.2 1.2 5.2 4.6 18.7
67.0 41.2 45.1 26.1 1.6 7.5 1.2 1.1 7.6 5.1 16.8
66.6 40.9 45.2 25.4 1.6 8.2 1.2 1.1 7.6 5.6 15.8
66.6 42.0 47.2 26.3 1.6 8.6 1.2 1.2 8.4 6.1 13.2
61.0 37.7 42.4 21.5 1.5 8.6 1.0 1.0 8.8 6.6 12.0
56.9 33.5 38.2 17.0 1.5 8.5 1.0 0.9 9.3 6.9 11.8
58.7 35.4 39.7 18.8 1.5 8.3 0.9 0.9 9.4 7.1 11.9
58.7
60.1
59.7
59.7
54.7
51.0
52.6
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
-1.1
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
111.5
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
72.5 44.9 1.6 11.2 3.0 4.8 7.1 7.6 31.4
58.0 38.1 1.4 9.4 2.2 1.4 5.6 7.0
4.2
5.5
0.8
-5.2
0.2
-5.3 -5.7 -2.1 -3.0 -8.9 -13.0 -3.0 -4.9 -5.0
0.7 0.2 2.5 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 3.8 2.0 -1.7
-0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -1.7 -0.8 0.5 -1.5 -1.0 1.4 1.7 -2.7
-0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -1.3 -0.3 -0.4 -1.5 -1.8 0.7 0.7 0.0
Source: PRIMES
130
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Bulgaria: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
8.767 20.1 1390.6 2.59 63.6
8.427 17.6 1322.4 2.49 57.2
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
8.191 16.9 1102.5 2.26 46.6
7.761 21.9 913.3 2.26 47.4
7.564 25.8 743.3 2.36 49.6
7.382 30.5 651.6 2.38 49.8
7.188 34.7 596.8 2.05 44.4
6.974 38.4 555.2 1.79 43.7
6.753 42.2 518.0 1.82 41.7
5.2 30.9
6.6 30.1
7.1 27.6
9.0 29.5
11.5 33.1
13.4 34.9
14.4 34.0
-0.7 -1.7 -2.3 -1.4
-0.8 4.3 -3.9 0.5
-0.5 3.0 -2.2 -1.4
-0.6 2.0 -1.4 -1.2
3.1
4.9
2.3
140.7 92.4 201.6 35.8 34.2
112.0 105.2 112.3 32.3 44.4
100.0 100.0 100.0 28.0 50.3
72.1 74.2 93.9 31.2 55.0
61.9 63.2 84.9 29.3 50.1
52.1 57.5 72.5 28.3 49.3
44.8 56.2 66.0 27.8 48.6
39.8 53.7 59.9 27.5 48.0
36.0 52.6 55.9 26.7 46.9
-3.4 0.8 -6.8 -2.4 3.9
-4.7 -4.5 -1.6 0.4 0.0
-3.2 -1.2 -2.5 -0.5 -0.3
-2.2 -0.7 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4
0.45 1.62 1.25 1.35 2.00 2.81
0.49 1.62 1.55 0.97 1.22 2.84
0.46 1.85 2.27 0.55 1.23 2.87
0.44 1.81 2.02 0.56 0.96 2.91
0.46 1.85 2.13 0.57 0.97 2.87
0.44 1.84 2.02 0.54 1.00 2.86
0.32 1.77 1.94 0.48 0.84 2.78
0.24 1.75 1.87 0.45 0.75 2.78
0.26 1.70 1.80 0.43 0.69 2.70
0.2 1.3 6.2 -8.7 -4.7 0.2
0.2 0.0 -0.6 0.4 -2.4 0.0
-3.5 -0.5 -0.9 -1.7 -1.4 -0.3
-2.3 -0.4 -0.7 -1.1 -2.0 -0.3
7.6 0.2
9.1 0.1
10.4 1.4
12.5 2.5
16.0 6.1
15.6 6.1
16.7 9.7
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
40639 18175 16820 590 2374 8 2673 0 0 0
43964 18650 18056 600 2312 5 4336 5 0 0
39688 14700 17323 125 2869 197 4065 406 3 0
43063 14700 19306 90 2930 676 4116 1190 24 32
48527 22350 15312 80 2858 1670 4169 1942 83 63
53438 30000 12183 64 2469 1803 4242 2448 140 88
55949 30000 13862 116 2520 2015 4357 2681 209 189
-0.2 -2.1 0.3 -14.4 1.9 37.9 4.3
2.0 4.3 -1.2 -4.4 0.0 23.8 0.3 16.9 38.2
1.4 3.0 -1.0 3.8 -1.3 1.9 0.4 3.3 9.7 11.6
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
10934 3473 1908 1908 0 0 0 5554 972 0 4430 812 271 40 0 0
10174 2678 1975 1967 8 0 0 5521 1108 0 4376 834 271 40 0 0
9634 1885 2489 2097 389 3 0 5260 1198 0 4179 794 276 11 0 0
10650 1910 3186 2122 1039 25 0 5554 1330 0 4553 613 279 105 0 4
11114 2870 3937 2136 1728 73 0 4306 1661 0 3277 516 253 254 0 7
12458 3817 4432 2191 2115 126 0 4209 1573 0 3250 462 213 274 0 10
12542 3817 4794 2340 2262 192 0 3932 1529 0 3040 421 132 317 0 22
-1.3 -5.9 2.7 0.9
1.4 4.3 4.7 0.2 16.1 35.8
1.2 2.9 2.0 0.9 2.7 10.2
-0.5 2.1
-2.0 3.3
-0.9 -0.8
-0.6 -0.2 0.2 -12.2
-2.4 -4.2 -0.9 37.1
-0.7 -2.0 -6.3 2.2
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
38.0
44.1
43.2
42.9
46.9
46.3
48.1
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
27.1 8.5 0.0 51.3 44.7 6.6
27.7 6.8 0.0 52.3 42.4 9.9
28.1 14.7 0.0 48.8 37.0 11.8
29.4 18.6 0.0 48.2 34.1 14.0
29.4 19.7 0.0 62.4 46.1 16.3
29.6 16.8 0.0 72.5 56.1 16.3
29.5 16.3 0.0 70.5 53.6 16.9
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
11.6
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
51.9 25.9 14.8 8.1 2.8 0.3
41.6 15.7 18.6 5.0 2.1 0.2
43.0 13.9 23.6 3.9 1.7 0.0
47.5 11.4 29.7 2.8 3.6 0.0
54.5 11.4 35.6 3.0 4.5 0.0
61.6 11.9 40.2 3.1 6.4 0.0
66.2 12.1 42.4 3.4 8.2 0.0
70.5 12.2 44.2 3.7 10.3 0.0
74.4 12.3 46.2 3.9 12.0 0.0
-1.9 -6.0 4.8 -7.1 -5.3 -22.7
2.4 -1.9 4.2 -2.7 10.5 -1.7
2.0 0.6 1.8 1.4 6.2 0.5
1.2 0.1 0.9 1.5 3.8 0.3
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
19.3 3.6 14.1 1.6
14.3 5.2 8.6 0.5
12.3 6.4 5.5 0.3
20.3 14.4 5.2 0.8
21.0 14.8 5.3 0.8
24.6 17.7 6.0 0.9
27.0 19.3 6.7 1.0
29.4 20.9 7.4 1.1
31.7 22.5 8.0 1.2
-4.5 5.9 -8.9 -15.1
5.5 8.8 -0.4 9.8
2.5 2.6 2.4 2.0
1.6 1.6 1.8 1.7
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
2523 293 1266 452 217 276 18
1980 127 923 504 144 276 6
1823 108 982 551 78 101 3
2599 87 1186 1058 65 200 4
2647 85 1259 993 65 243 4
2953 87 1312 1145 70 335 4
3151 85 1343 1240 75 404 4
3352 82 1387 1336 78 465 5
3478 78 1395 1424 69 509 5
-3.2 -9.5 -2.5 2.0 -9.8 -9.6 -16.9
3.8 -2.4 2.5 6.1 -1.8 9.2 2.6
1.8 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.5 5.2 1.7
1.0 -0.9 0.4 1.4 -0.9 2.3 1.4
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
131
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Cyprus: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
6 0 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 0 0
42 0 0 0 0 42 0 11 0 31 0
45 0 0 0 0 45 0 10 0 35 0
49 0 0 0 0 49 0 7 0 41 0
86 0 0 0 0 86 0 18 0 68 0
182 0 0 0 0 182 0 37 26 119 0
282 0 0 0 0 282 0 54 66 162 0
343 0 0 0 0 343 0 73 87 183 0
408 0 0 0 0 408 0 91 98 220 0
23.2
6.6
12.7
3.8
23.2
6.6
12.7
3.8
5.8
6.0
12.0
6.7
9.1 14.3
5.2 4.0 3.1 20.8
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
1638 68 1570 631 939 0 0
2024 17 2007 797 1210 0 0
2547 36 2511 1153 1358 0 0
2816 43 2773 0 2773 0 0
3087 38 3049 0 3049 0 0
3049 43 2638 0 2638 365 0
3100 52 2605 0 2605 423 0
3165 52 2637 0 2637 456 0
3146 57 2568 0 2568 506 0
4.5 -6.3 4.8 6.2 3.8
1.9 0.6 2.0 -60.7 8.4
0.0 3.2 -1.6 -0.8 -1.6 144.8
0.1 0.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 1.8
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
1519 60 1453 0 0 0 6
1976 13 1920 0 0 0 42
2390 35 2310 0 0 0 45
2466 36 2382 0 0 0 49
2855 38 2731 0 0 0 86
2899 43 2305 365 0 0 185
3043 52 2266 423 0 0 303
3158 52 2288 456 0 0 363
3194 57 2208 506 0 0 424
4.6 -5.3 4.7
1.8 0.8 1.7
0.6 3.2 -1.9 144.8
0.5 0.9 -0.3 1.8
23.2
6.6
13.4
3.4
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
4.0 95.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
0.7 97.2 0.0 0.0 2.1
1.5 96.6 0.0 0.0 1.9
1.4 96.6 0.0 0.0 2.0
1.3 95.7 0.0 0.0 3.0
1.5 79.5 12.6 0.0 6.4
1.7 74.5 13.9 0.0 9.9
1.6 72.4 14.5 0.0 11.5
1.8 69.1 15.8 0.0 13.3
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
1974 207
2473 236
3369 353
4377 417
4708 421
5333 404
6124 449
6842 496
7598 533
5.5 5.5
3.4 1.8
2.7 0.7
2.2 1.7
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
516 0 516 0 0 0 0
641 0 641 0 0 0 0
884 0 884 0 0 0 0
1077 0 1077 0 0 0 0
1092 0 1085 0 7 0 0
936 0 551 365 21 0 0
956 0 495 423 38 0 0
1018 0 505 456 56 0 0
1040 0 474 505 61 0 0
5.5
2.1
-1.3
0.8
5.5
2.1
-7.5 18.1
-0.4 1.8 4.9
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
643 643 0 0 0
828 828 0 0 0
1171 1171 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
4 0 3 0 0
12 0 12 0 0
30 0 30 0 0
30 0 30 0 0
41 0 41 0 0
6.2 6.2
-44.0 -60.7
23.7 -0.8 24.0
3.2 0.0 3.2
Energy Branch Consumption
41
43
54
22
21
17
17
18
17
2.7
-9.1
-1.9
0.1
Non-Energy Uses
31
62
84
71
61
60
61
63
67
10.6
-3.1
-0.1
1.0
1099
1414
1640
1809
2071
2301
2442
2520
2561
4.1
2.4
1.7
0.5
277 127 150 110 82 629
391 220 171 179 91 752
442 225 217 215 129 854
316 196 120 319 203 972
326 205 120 363 314 1069
345 223 123 403 396 1156
359 234 125 442 445 1196
376 247 130 447 484 1212
383 253 130 463 505 1210
4.8 5.9 3.7 6.9 4.6 3.1
-3.0 -0.9 -5.7 5.4 9.3 2.3
1.0 1.3 0.4 2.0 3.5 1.1
0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 1.3 0.1
76 867 0 151 0 6 0
13 1167 0 191 0 42 0
35 1302 0 258 0 45 0
36 1385 0 340 0 49 0
38 1585 0 369 2 78 0
43 1695 0 424 3 135 0
52 1710 0 488 4 187 0
52 1719 0 546 5 199 0
57 1667 0 608 4 225 0
-7.5 4.2
0.8 2.0
5.5
3.7
23.2
5.6
3.2 0.8 8.6 2.8 9.6 9.2 9.7
0.9 -0.3 0.7 2.2 0.0 1.9 -0.4
Annual % Change
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
5.5 4.6 1.7 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.8 100.0
5.7 2.1 0.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.2 0.0
44
48
82
176
282
333
392
9.5 7.0 2.8 0.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.5
9.4 4.9 7.7 3.5 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.9 0.0 1.7
9.9 5.1 8.3 3.5 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 3.2 0.0 1.6
9.3 4.4 7.8 2.6 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 3.4 0.0 1.5
9.3 4.5 7.9 2.6 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.4 3.5 0.0 1.4
9.5 4.8 8.0 2.7 0.0 1.0 0.4 0.5 3.5 0.0 1.5
9.5 4.9 7.9 2.7 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.4 3.5 0.0 1.6
174.1
173.2
181.8
171.1
170.0
175.0
174.0
6.4
13.1
3.4
5.7
0.4
4.2 5.5 1.8 4.3 2.4
1.8 2.1
-0.7 -1.1 -0.6 -3.0
0.2 0.8 0.0 0.5
-3.7 7.9
3.1
2.2
0.8 -0.7 2.4 0.9
0.6 -3.5 -0.6 0.0
11.7
-4.5
-1.2
1.3
Source: PRIMES
132
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Cyprus: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
0.573 7.5 203.6 3.04 103.9
0.645 9.7 204.4 2.88 99.1
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
0.690 11.7 205.1 2.92 98.7
0.749 13.7 180.5 3.13 100.8
0.821 15.6 183.6 2.92 97.3
0.888 18.7 155.1 2.70 94.4
0.955 22.5 135.1 2.58 91.7
1.017 26.7 118.2 2.54 90.2
1.072 30.9 103.3 2.47 88.5
1.2 10.4
1.8 13.2
2.2 14.1
2.6 13.8
3.3 14.8
3.9 14.6
4.2 13.5
1.9 4.6 0.1 -0.4
1.7 2.9 -1.1 0.0
1.5 3.8 -3.0 -1.2
1.2 3.2 -2.7 -0.4
6.1
4.3
2.2
71.9 92.3 113.7 50.5 216.8
89.2 102.4 89.3 48.7 219.8
100.0 100.0 100.0 46.1 225.2
68.2 124.2 134.4 47.4 226.3
63.4 126.1 181.9 46.7 225.8
57.6 115.4 189.8 44.0 224.2
51.1 104.4 175.9 40.5 216.1
46.6 89.0 160.5 36.3 206.1
42.2 79.3 143.8 32.6 195.0
3.4 0.8 -1.3 -0.9 0.4
-4.4 2.3 6.2 0.1 0.0
-2.1 -1.9 -0.3 -1.4 -0.4
-1.9 -2.7 -2.0 -2.2 -1.0
0.84 2.62 3.00 1.60 0.00 2.97
0.83 2.51 2.86 1.11 0.00 2.97
0.84 2.46 2.87 1.05 0.00 2.98
0.79 2.36 2.71 1.42 0.42 2.96
0.74 2.34 2.67 1.33 1.10 2.95
0.49 2.26 2.61 1.19 1.09 2.93
0.42 2.17 2.61 1.02 0.99 2.89
0.39 2.11 2.58 0.80 0.99 2.90
0.35 2.03 2.59 0.68 0.82 2.87
0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -4.2
-1.3 -0.5 -0.7 2.4
0.0
-0.1
-5.5 -0.8 -0.2 -2.6 -1.1 -0.2
-1.7 -0.7 -0.1 -4.0 -1.8 -0.1
3.1 0.0
3.0 0.0
4.5 0.5
8.7 1.6
13.1 3.9
15.1 4.0
17.7 5.8
3369 0 0 3369 0 0 0 0 0 0
4377 0 0 4376 0 0 0 0 1 0
4708 0 0 4668 0 28 0 0 11 0
5333 0 0 2584 2323 88 0 304 34 0
6124 0 0 2367 2693 163 0 764 137 0
6842 0 0 2405 2923 267 0 1015 232 0
7598 0 0 2264 3434 293 0 1136 471 0
3.4
2.7
2.2
3.3
-6.6 19.2
-0.4 2.5 6.0
28.2
4.0 13.2
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
940 0 0 0 0 0 0 940 0 0 0 0 940 0 0 0
1105 0 1 0 0 1 0 1103 0 0 0 0 1103 0 0 0
1473 0 7 0 0 7 0 1466 2 0 0 0 1462 4 0 0
1782 0 182 0 161 21 0 1601 5 0 0 566 1023 12 0 0
1993 0 438 0 359 79 0 1556 7 0 0 566 967 23 0 0
2105 0 609 0 470 138 0 1497 7 0 0 613 853 31 0 0
2484 0 798 0 521 277 0 1686 8 0 0 913 739 35 0 0
4.6
3.1
2.2
50.3
6.2
26.7
3.8 13.4
4.5
0.6 13.9
0.8 2.4
4.5
-4.0 19.8
4.9 -2.7 4.1
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
38.9
42.6
34.6
32.9
33.9
36.0
34.0
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
32.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
35.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
37.0 0.3 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.8
45.9 0.6 0.0 8.0 0.0 8.0
47.0 0.7 0.0 17.4 0.0 17.4
47.3 0.6 0.0 22.1 0.0 22.1
49.5 0.6 0.0 25.0 0.0 25.0
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
8.6 0.9 3.1 0.0 4.7 0.0
10.0 1.0 3.6 0.0 5.4 0.0
12.1 1.1 4.1 0.0 6.9 0.0
13.9 1.3 4.9 0.0 7.7 0.0
16.4 1.3 6.1 0.0 8.9 0.0
18.7 1.4 6.6 0.0 10.7 0.0
21.0 1.5 6.8 0.0 12.7 0.0
23.6 1.6 7.2 0.0 14.8 0.0
26.1 1.7 7.5 0.0 16.9 0.0
3.5 2.8 2.8
3.1 1.8 4.2
2.5 1.4 1.1
2.2 1.1 0.9
4.0
2.5
3.6
2.9
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0
1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0
1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0
1.4 1.4 0.0 0.0
1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0
1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0
1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0
1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0
1.8 1.8 0.0 0.0
3.9 3.9
0.3 0.3
1.7 1.7
1.5 1.5
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
629 18 175 194 0 242 0
752 21 200 264 0 267 0
854 24 246 295 0 290 0
972 26 331 315 0 299 0
1069 28 393 304 0 344 0
1156 29 397 334 0 396 0
1196 30 388 344 0 435 0
1212 30 358 355 0 469 0
1210 30 318 360 0 502 0
3.1 2.6 3.5 4.3
2.3 1.6 4.8 0.3
1.1 0.7 -0.1 1.2
0.1 0.0 -2.0 0.5
1.8
1.7
2.4
1.5
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
133
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Czech Republic: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
40090 36321 223 201 3246 100 100 0 0 0 0
32221 27946 296 198 3155 626 172 454 0 0 0
29911 25049 461 169 3506 727 151 576 0 0 0
32845 23570 600 154 6379 2142 205 1933 2 2 0
30379 20374 200 162 6834 2808 195 2547 30 36 0
31221 19725 200 163 7675 3458 198 3037 61 162 0
32360 18723 200 150 8841 4446 203 3753 93 397 0
33625 18447 200 142 10361 4475 206 3780 108 381 0
34665 18757 197 136 11053 4522 209 3665 122 526 0
-2.9 -3.6 7.5 -1.7 0.8 22.0 4.2
0.2 -2.0 -8.0 -0.4 6.9 14.5 2.6 16.0
0.6 -0.8 0.0 -0.8 2.6 4.7 0.4 4.0 12.0 27.0 8.1
0.7 0.0 -0.1 -1.0 2.3 0.2 0.3 -0.2 2.8 2.8 -1.7
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
7684 -5690 8648 7440 1209 4786 -60
8716 -5762 8019 7071 948 6424 36
9448 -4765 7593 5655 1937 7482 -861
12896 -3179 9813 7857 1956 7535 -1086
14046 -3068 10171 8227 1944 7949 -818
14606 -3456 11202 9017 2185 7982 -945
14183 -3362 11209 9020 2189 7353 -839
13549 -3458 11229 9035 2194 6942 -1019
12487 -3815 10900 8900 2000 6662 -1152
2.1
4.0
0.1
-1.3
-1.3 -2.7 4.8 4.6
3.0 3.8 0.0 0.6
1.0 0.9 1.2 -0.8
-0.3 -0.1 -0.9 -1.0
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
48992 31433 9025 5248 3246 -60 100
41605 23062 8174 6552 3155 36 626
40506 21598 8036 7500 3506 -861 727
45319 20300 10068 7703 6379 -1086 1955
44424 17306 10371 8112 6834 -818 2619
45827 16269 11402 8145 7675 -945 3281
46543 15361 11409 7503 8841 -839 4267
47174 14990 11429 7084 10361 -1019 4330
47152 14941 11097 6798 11053 -1152 4416
-1.9 -3.7 -1.2 3.6 0.8
0.9 -2.2 2.6 0.8 6.9
0.5 -1.2 1.0 -0.8 2.6
0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -1.0 2.3
22.0
13.7
5.0
0.3
64.2 18.4 10.7 6.6 0.2
55.4 19.6 15.7 7.6 1.5
53.3 19.8 18.5 8.7 1.8
44.8 22.2 17.0 14.1 4.3
39.0 23.3 18.3 15.4 5.9
35.5 24.9 17.8 16.7 7.2
33.0 24.5 16.1 19.0 9.2
31.8 24.2 15.0 22.0 9.2
31.7 23.5 14.4 23.4 9.4
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
62260 8840
60564 9047
72898 10756
81916 11776
80310 11079
89439 12269
94731 13137
104140 14788
110724 15828
1.6 2.0
1.0 0.3
1.7 1.7
1.6 1.9
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
15255 14213 741 300 0 0 0
11006 10002 311 573 119 0 0
15753 13911 203 1270 369 0 0
15729 14061 152 1292 224 0 0
15063 13426 41 1205 390 0 0
14440 12436 72 1357 575 0 0
13798 11836 38 1218 705 0 0
13703 11614 37 1278 774 0 0
13824 11601 30 1348 843 0 0
0.3 -0.2 -12.2 15.5
-0.4 -0.4 -14.8 -0.5 0.6
-0.9 -1.3 -0.6 0.1 6.1
0.0 -0.2 -2.3 1.0 1.8
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
18077 8005 0 1830 8242
14555 7299 11 1361 5885
11640 6218 0 966 4456
13441 8278 3 922 4239
12136 8496 238 790 2613
12794 9309 358 735 2392
12712 9321 597 588 2206
12759 9339 696 545 2179
12663 9205 773 523 2163
-4.3 -2.5
0.4 3.2
-6.2 -6.0
-2.0 -5.2
0.5 0.9 9.7 -2.9 -1.7
0.0 -0.1 2.6 -1.2 -0.2
Energy Branch Consumption
2116
1673
1919
1944
2041
2141
2154
2216
2236
-1.0
0.6
0.5
0.4
Non-Energy Uses
1713
2379
2090
2939
2853
3201
3340
3508
3563
2.0
3.2
1.6
0.6
32224
25067
23562
25846
26652
28456
29075
29065
28773
-3.1
1.2
0.9
-0.1
16258 6961 9297 7848 5306 2812
12339 5795 6544 5433 4438 2857
9723 5990 3733 5301 4161 4377
9593 6654 2939 6019 4070 6164
9324 6068 3256 6265 4182 6881
10057 6397 3660 6467 4296 7636
10118 6299 3819 6661 4421 7875
10093 6254 3840 6524 4514 7934
9986 6162 3824 6483 4581 7724
-5.0 -1.5 -8.7 -3.8 -2.4 4.5
-0.4 0.1 -1.4 1.7 0.1 4.6
0.8 0.4 1.6 0.6 0.6 1.4
-0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.4 -0.2
13719 6257 5146 4142 2959 0 0
5797 5048 6119 4129 3664 308 0
4778 5397 6419 4243 2624 102 0
3636 6940 6581 4750 2478 1461 0
2638 7314 6747 4947 3078 1927 1
2707 7918 6634 5504 3334 2358 1
2548 7820 6163 5992 3377 3172 4
2442 7710 5653 6475 3607 3173 4
2377 7366 5295 6820 3723 3190 3
-10.0 -1.5 2.2 0.2 -1.2
-5.8 3.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 34.2
-0.3 0.7 -0.9 1.9 0.9 5.1 20.9
-0.7 -0.6 -1.5 1.3 1.0 0.1 -3.2
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
207.5
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
158.4 67.0 2.3 46.9 21.6 13.2 7.5 18.3 30.8
104.2 48.0 1.6 27.6 9.9 9.3 7.8 13.5
454
1663
2344
3021
4020
4110
4195
150.8 117.9 64.0 2.2 24.5 8.1 6.7 12.4 12.4 20.5
149.5 86.5 118.5 64.2 2.4 21.6 6.9 5.6 17.8 11.3 19.7
140.6 77.9 111.4 60.5 1.9 17.3 6.9 5.5 19.3 10.2 19.0
137.6 74.2 109.3 56.7 1.9 17.8 6.7 5.1 21.2 11.2 17.1
130.0 70.9 103.9 53.4 1.8 16.6 6.2 4.7 21.1 11.8 14.4
127.5 70.3 101.0 52.6 1.7 15.7 5.6 4.4 21.0 12.2 14.3
125.8 70.5 98.9 52.7 1.7 15.0 5.4 4.1 20.1 12.5 14.4
72.7
72.0
67.8
66.3
62.7
61.4
60.6
17.8
5.5
0.4
-3.1
-0.7
-2.9 -0.4 -0.4 -6.3 -9.3 -6.5 5.1 -3.8 -4.0
-0.6 -0.6 -1.5 -3.4 -1.6 -1.9 4.5 -1.9 -0.8
-0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -1.2 -0.7 -0.4 -1.0 -1.5 0.9 1.4 -2.7
-0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -0.5 0.6 0.0
Source: PRIMES
134
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Czech Republic: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
10.362 81.3 602.6 3.23 15.7
10.333 77.5 537.1 2.50 21.0
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
10.278 83.4 485.7 2.91 23.3
10.221 100.2 452.3 2.62 28.5
10.394 114.3 388.7 2.51 31.6
10.497 134.8 339.9 2.39 31.9
10.543 154.2 301.9 2.23 30.5
10.516 169.4 278.5 2.14 28.7
10.420 182.5 258.3 2.10 26.5
15.3 18.4
18.1 18.1
19.9 17.4
24.7 18.4
30.9 20.0
35.0 20.6
36.0 19.7
-0.1 0.3 -2.1 -1.0
0.1 3.2 -2.2 -1.5
0.1 3.0 -2.5 -1.2
-0.1 1.7 -1.5 -0.6
2.6
4.5
1.5
196.2 163.9 194.0 19.6 18.9
170.1 117.2 113.2 19.5 18.1
100.0 100.0 100.0 25.5 31.8
73.8 97.2 80.7 31.2 45.8
61.6 90.2 73.4 30.7 46.1
56.3 79.5 62.8 28.6 45.9
50.6 71.7 55.6 26.9 44.0
46.6 64.1 51.1 25.4 42.0
43.3 59.4 47.8 23.4 39.6
-6.5 -4.8 -6.4 2.6 5.4
-4.7 -1.0 -3.0 1.9 3.8
-1.9 -2.3 -2.7 -1.3 -0.4
-1.5 -1.9 -1.5 -1.4 -1.1
0.64 2.77 2.88 2.75 2.48 2.68
0.44 2.18 2.24 1.83 2.09 2.71
0.57 2.19 2.52 1.53 1.61 2.83
0.53 2.01 2.25 1.15 1.37 2.89
0.46 1.84 1.86 1.10 1.32 2.80
0.39 1.78 1.77 1.04 1.19 2.77
0.35 1.67 1.64 0.93 1.07 2.68
0.32 1.61 1.55 0.86 0.98 2.65
0.31 1.55 1.50 0.84 0.88 2.60
-1.0 -2.3 -1.3 -5.7 -4.2 0.6
-2.2 -1.8 -3.0 -3.3 -2.0 -0.1
-2.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0 -0.4
-1.3 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -1.9 -0.3
1.8 0.2
6.1 0.2
8.3 3.9
10.0 5.3
13.0 8.5
13.2 9.9
13.6 11.4
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
72898 13588 52069 421 3893 1170 1758 0 0 0
81916 24724 48848 416 4714 814 2380 21 0 0
80310 26495 43021 181 6385 1548 2263 348 70 0
89439 29753 45768 374 7714 2638 2306 713 172 0
94731 34627 46181 201 6894 3162 2361 1077 228 0
104140 41160 48027 183 7255 3600 2397 1256 261 0
110724 44173 50932 148 7419 3923 2433 1418 278 0
1.0 6.9 -1.9 -8.1 5.1 2.8 2.6
1.7 2.7 0.7 1.1 0.8 7.4 0.4 12.0 12.6
1.6 2.5 1.0 -3.1 0.7 2.2 0.3 2.8 2.0
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
13222 1706 948 947 1 0 0 10568 3510 0 9090 1207 129 143 0 0
15228 3621 1045 1016 29 0 0 10563 3621 0 8987 1300 133 143 0 0
14760 3636 1508 1045 364 99 0 9616 4107 0 7985 1333 136 162 0 0
17014 3651 1966 1053 734 179 0 11396 5079 0 9484 1325 271 316 0 0
18071 4259 2421 1065 1119 236 0 11390 5720 0 9338 1326 200 526 0 0
19530 5052 2665 1084 1310 271 0 11812 6240 0 9207 1836 187 583 0 0
20735 5418 2860 1090 1483 288 0 12457 6385 0 9589 2047 171 649 0 0
1.1 7.9 4.7 1.0 80.3
2.0 1.6 4.8 0.2 11.9 9.1
1.4 2.4 1.7 0.2 2.9 2.0
-0.9 1.6
1.7 3.4
0.9 1.1
-1.3 1.0 0.6 1.3
1.6 -0.1 3.9 12.5
0.3 4.4 -1.5 2.1
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
58.1
56.5
57.7
55.8
55.7
56.5
56.5
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
31.4 19.4 0.0 22.7 18.6 4.0
30.0 18.1 0.0 34.1 30.2 3.9
29.2 25.8 0.0 38.3 33.0 5.3
33.6 37.6 0.0 39.8 33.3 6.5
35.2 39.3 0.0 43.8 36.6 7.2
37.1 39.4 0.0 46.7 39.5 7.2
38.8 39.2 0.0 47.2 39.9 7.3
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
85.3 14.1 45.7 20.9 4.6 0.0
96.3 18.6 58.1 15.7 3.9 0.0
103.4 16.2 66.8 15.4 5.0 0.0
111.9 15.6 71.8 14.6 9.9 0.0
122.0 16.3 79.8 14.7 11.3 0.0
139.1 17.1 91.8 15.3 14.8 0.0
151.0 17.9 98.1 16.1 19.0 0.0
160.3 18.4 101.3 16.7 23.8 0.0
168.2 18.8 105.0 17.2 27.1 0.0
1.9 1.4 3.9 -3.0 0.7
1.7 0.1 1.8 -0.4 8.6
2.2 1.0 2.1 0.9 5.3
1.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 3.6
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
60.3 18.6 38.0 3.7
54.2 31.3 22.6 0.3
54.9 37.3 17.5 0.1
58.4 43.4 14.9 0.1
68.1 51.3 16.7 0.1
79.6 60.5 19.0 0.1
86.8 65.8 20.9 0.1
92.0 69.8 22.1 0.1
95.7 72.7 22.8 0.1
-0.9 7.2 -7.5 -31.8
2.2 3.2 -0.4 -1.0
2.5 2.5 2.2 1.8
1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
2812 100 1351 768 272 174 147
2857 131 1518 783 200 185 40
4377 112 2249 1509 304 197 5
6164 107 2961 2476 272 344 5
6881 110 3172 2915 290 388 6
7636 114 3308 3406 313 489 6
7875 113 3299 3571 306 580 7
7934 110 3228 3623 295 670 7
7724 107 3048 3586 259 717 7
4.5 1.1 5.2 7.0 1.1 1.3 -28.6
4.6 -0.1 3.5 6.8 -0.5 7.0 1.2
1.4 0.3 0.4 2.0 0.5 4.1 1.6
-0.2 -0.6 -0.8 0.0 -1.6 2.2 0.4
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
135
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Denmark: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
10062 0 6093 2770 0 1199 2 1140 52 2 2
15593 0 9357 4702 0 1534 3 1423 101 5 2
27665 0 18189 7412 0 2065 3 1687 365 8 3
31280 0 18942 9383 0 2955 2 2371 569 10 3
25857 0 14670 8100 0 3087 2 2369 683 33 0
22965 0 12500 6980 0 3485 2 2494 888 101 0
19816 0 9500 6040 0 4276 2 2744 1287 243 0
17868 0 8500 4800 0 4568 2 2856 1398 313 0
15632 0 7500 3500 0 4632 2 2795 1487 347 0
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
8621 6216 2727 2036 691 -928 606
7544 7664 1439 804 635 -1496 -68
-7259 3784 -8277 -9803 1526 -2882 57
-10433 3540 -9388 -11214 1826 -5010 118
-6047 3212 -6452 -7192 740 -3385 92
-3330 2908 -4508 -5136 628 -2599 118
-423 2350 -1687 -2229 541 -2180 136
1200 2179 -956 -1364 408 -1271 185
3250 2153 -164 -472 308 17 184
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
17893 6088 8181 1818 0 608 1199
20283 6498 9143 3170 0 -68 1540
19522 3987 8905 4449 0 57 2124
19702 3751 8171 4399 0 118 3262
19050 3212 7458 4715 0 92 3572
18850 2908 7206 4381 0 118 4236
18594 2350 7014 3860 0 136 5234
18250 2179 6725 3529 0 185 5632
18043 2153 6497 3517 0 184 5692
34.0 45.7 10.2 0.0 6.7
32.0 45.1 15.6 0.0 7.6
20.4 45.6 22.8 0.0 10.9
19.0 41.5 22.3 0.0 16.6
16.9 39.2 24.7 0.0 18.8
15.4 38.2 23.2 0.0 22.5
12.6 37.7 20.8 0.0 28.2
11.9 36.9 19.3 0.0 30.9
11.9 36.0 19.5 0.0 31.5
25733 3289
36648 4389
36043 3708
36348 3457
36646 3299
37797 3245
37137 2978
39218 3566
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
6016 5541 237 174 65 0 0
8423 6061 1008 975 378 0 0
7821 3667 1344 2112 699 0 0
7165 3444 344 2003 1374 0 0
6265 3000 67 1874 1323 0 0
6311 2706 55 1864 1687 0 0
5686 2153 49 1624 1859 0 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
9099 8048 0 1009 42
10781 9985 0 766 31
9008 8472 0 519 17
8362 7841 0 508 13
8385 7478 134 773 0
8171 7364 233 574 0
Energy Branch Consumption
733
1010
1157
1264
1276
Non-Energy Uses
299
298
298
285
263
13522
14750
14638
15457
2715 1078 1637 3954 2829 4024
3031 1125 1906 4474 2786 4460
2941 1149 1792 4158 2807 4732
396 7127 1159 2517 1758 566 0
405 7162 1691 2655 2242 595 0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
10.6
-0.7
-2.6
-2.3
11.6 10.3
-2.1 0.9
-4.3 -2.9
-2.3 -5.3
5.6 1.1 4.0 21.4 12.9 1.9
4.1 -3.5 3.5 6.5 15.3 -36.1
3.3 3.3 1.5 6.5 22.0 3.3
0.8 -0.2 0.2 1.5 3.6 -0.1
-4.8
-1.6
-3.1
-0.9
8.3
-7.0
-3.1
-5.5
-21.0
4.9
3.9
3.1
0.9 -4.1 0.9 9.4
-0.2 -2.1 -1.8 0.6
-0.2 -3.1 -0.6 -2.0
-0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9
-21.0 5.9
4.9 5.3
3.9 3.9
3.1 0.8
41364 3724
3.4 1.2
0.2 -1.2
0.1 -1.0
1.1 2.3
5687 1981 40 1479 2187 0 0
5771 1955 35 1459 2322 0 0
2.7 -4.0 19.0 28.4 26.9
-2.2 -2.0 -25.9 -1.2 6.6
-1.0 -3.3 -3.1 -1.4 3.5
0.1 -1.0 -3.5 -1.1 2.2
8307 7271 384 652 0
8116 7136 438 542 0
7908 7028 487 393 0
-0.1 0.5
-0.7 -1.2
-6.4 -8.4
4.1
-0.1 -0.3 11.1 -1.7
-0.5 -0.3 2.4 -4.9
1179
1052
1015
977
4.7
1.0
-1.9
-0.7
277
287
301
317
0.0
-1.2
0.9
1.0
15091
15274
15273
15066
14949
0.8
0.3
0.1
-0.2
2866 1117 1749 4462 2861 5269
2638 984 1654 4519 2833 5100
2508 931 1578 4712 2848 5205
2467 921 1546 4738 2839 5230
2502 930 1572 4648 2834 5083
2539 937 1601 4655 2829 4927
0.8 0.6 0.9 0.5 -0.1 1.6
-1.1 -1.5 -0.8 0.8 0.1 0.8
-0.7 -0.7 -0.7 0.5 0.0 0.3
0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.6
290 6979 1667 2791 2255 657 0
253 7234 1702 2877 2444 947 0
211 6628 1847 2896 2393 1117 0
201 6448 1756 3027 2633 1208 1
195 6230 1548 3011 2658 1629 2
197 5993 1461 3189 2590 1634 2
196 5790 1432 3360 2498 1673 1
-3.1 -0.2 3.7 1.0 2.5 1.5
-3.2 -0.5 1.0 0.4 0.6 5.4
-0.8 -0.6 -1.8 0.4 1.1 3.8 18.4
0.1 -0.7 -0.8 1.1 -0.6 0.3 -7.6
1812
2774
3071
3794
4790
5174
5277
5.4
4.5
1.0
69.4
59.9 25.1 44.8 17.2 2.5 4.3 3.6 2.4 14.7 2.1 13.1
56.6 23.3 42.0 15.5 2.3 3.6 3.5 2.3 14.7 2.2 12.3
52.2 21.1 38.1 13.0 2.0 3.4 3.0 2.3 14.3 2.2 11.9
49.9 19.9 35.8 11.7 1.9 3.5 2.7 2.3 13.7 2.3 11.8
49.2 20.1 35.0 11.7 1.8 3.6 2.6 2.3 13.1 2.4 11.8
0.0
-1.5
52.3 24.0 2.4 5.2 3.9 2.9 13.9 2.4 14.7
64.5 29.2 48.9 19.7 2.5 4.9 3.5 2.7 15.6 2.2 13.4
0.1 -0.2 4.9 -0.3 -2.3 -2.0 1.6 4.8 -1.0
-1.6 -3.3 0.7 -1.9 -0.7 -1.9 0.5 -1.3 -1.2
-1.4 -1.7 -1.6 -2.8 -2.0 -2.3 -1.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 -0.9
-0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.4 0.5 -1.6 -0.2 -0.9 0.7 -0.1
99.9
92.7
86.2
81.3
75.0
71.7
70.7
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
69.5 51.7 24.5 1.5 5.4 4.9 3.6 11.9 1.5 16.3 100.0
59.3 30.2 2.0 5.9 4.9 3.1 13.2 1.9
Source: PRIMES
136
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Denmark: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
5.135 150.8 118.7 2.89 45.7
5.216 169.2 119.8 2.92 34.5
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
5.330 194.8 100.2 2.68 -34.8
5.411 207.4 95.0 2.48 -50.8
5.512 209.0 91.2 2.35 -30.5
5.591 226.9 83.1 2.23 -17.0
5.661 245.9 75.6 2.05 -2.2
5.736 268.3 68.0 1.96 6.3
5.808 289.6 62.3 1.94 17.2
16.9 8.7
18.2 8.8
18.6 8.9
21.2 9.3
24.8 10.1
27.2 10.1
28.2 9.7
0.4 2.6 -1.7 -0.7
0.3 0.7 -0.9 -1.3
0.3 1.6 -1.9 -1.4
0.3 1.7 -1.9 -0.5
1.0
2.9
1.3
105.2 114.7 127.4 36.5 69.2
105.9 115.7 113.7 37.6 66.4
100.0 100.0 100.0 38.1 66.6
91.7 96.2 97.5 41.0 74.5
85.3 100.0 94.1 39.7 74.0
76.0 97.0 86.1 36.9 73.5
69.9 90.5 78.9 35.7 70.4
65.0 81.8 72.1 32.5 66.9
61.6 75.3 66.5 30.2 61.9
-0.5 -1.4 -2.4 0.4 -0.4
-1.6 0.0 -0.6 0.4 1.1
-2.0 -1.0 -1.7 -1.1 -0.5
-1.3 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.3
0.48 1.91 1.98 1.24 1.27 2.96
0.43 1.84 1.95 1.09 1.12 2.95
0.35 1.77 1.77 0.94 1.04 2.95
0.27 1.73 1.70 0.79 0.94 2.96
0.24 1.66 1.62 0.80 0.85 2.88
0.20 1.59 1.45 0.75 0.82 2.83
0.17 1.51 1.38 0.64 0.81 2.74
0.15 1.47 1.39 0.58 0.80 2.70
0.15 1.44 1.41 0.55 0.80 2.66
-3.1 -0.7 -1.1 -2.8 -1.9 0.0
-3.7 -0.7 -0.9 -1.5 -2.0 -0.2
-3.3 -0.9 -1.6 -2.3 -0.5 -0.5
-1.2 -0.5 0.2 -1.4 -0.2 -0.3
11.7 0.1
16.9 0.2
19.2 3.5
23.5 6.0
30.0 10.1
32.9 12.1
34.0 14.5
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
36043 0 15757 4920 9246 1849 30 4240 0 0
36348 0 15052 1371 9308 3982 23 6613 0 0
36646 0 13297 352 10167 4865 21 7938 6 0
37797 0 12142 238 9531 5502 28 10321 36 0
37137 0 8116 203 7715 6008 29 14964 102 0
39218 0 8091 169 7071 7484 28 16250 125 0
41364 0 8140 141 7334 8279 29 17295 146 0
0.2
0.1
1.1
-1.7 -23.2 1.0 10.2 -3.5 6.5
-4.8 -5.3 -2.7 2.1 3.3 6.5 31.9
0.0 -3.6 -0.5 3.3 -0.2 1.5 3.7
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
12431 0 2403 10 2392 1 0 10028 4488 0 6232 2092 1124 581 0 0
13128 0 3143 11 3129 3 0 9985 4691 0 5752 2257 1099 877 0 0
13199 0 3746 11 3719 16 0 9452 4681 0 5269 2227 1022 934 0 0
13010 0 4251 11 4202 38 0 8759 5198 0 4451 2265 982 1061 0 0
12955 0 5850 12 5731 107 0 7105 4772 0 3321 2169 387 1226 0 0
13523 0 6281 12 6138 131 0 7242 4969 0 3144 2382 228 1488 0 0
14203 0 6698 12 6530 156 0 7505 5232 0 3104 2524 118 1759 0 0
0.6
-0.2
0.9
4.5 1.0 4.5 32.0
4.6 0.9 4.4 20.8
1.4 0.0 1.3 3.8
-0.6 0.4
-2.8 0.2
0.5 0.9
-1.7 0.6 -0.9 4.9
-4.5 -0.3 -9.2 2.8
-0.7 1.5 -11.2 3.7
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
31.6
30.0
30.3
31.9
31.7
31.7
31.9
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
34.9 55.4 0.0 17.0 0.0 17.0
35.7 59.0 0.0 29.2 0.0 29.2
39.4 66.3 0.0 35.0 0.0 35.0
37.4 70.4 0.0 42.0 0.0 42.0
33.3 56.3 0.0 56.8 0.0 56.8
34.5 56.3 0.0 60.9 0.0 60.9
35.6 56.5 0.0 62.2 0.0 62.2
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
68.9 6.4 48.0 5.1 5.2 4.2
71.6 7.3 49.1 4.9 6.5 3.8
76.1 7.4 51.9 5.5 7.9 3.3
79.5 7.3 53.7 6.1 9.3 3.0
82.8 7.4 56.1 6.4 9.8 3.1
88.8 7.8 59.5 6.8 11.5 3.2
92.4 8.0 60.1 7.3 13.5 3.4
96.5 8.3 61.1 7.9 15.7 3.5
100.2 8.5 61.8 8.3 18.0 3.7
1.0 1.4 0.8 0.9 4.3 -2.5
0.8 0.0 0.8 1.4 2.2 -0.6
1.1 0.8 0.7 1.4 3.2 0.9
0.8 0.6 0.3 1.3 2.9 0.9
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
21.7 18.1 1.7 1.9
26.7 22.4 2.0 2.3
27.5 24.0 2.0 1.5
27.0 23.3 2.0 1.7
24.5 21.0 1.8 1.7
26.3 22.6 1.9 1.8
27.5 23.6 2.0 1.9
29.1 25.0 2.1 2.0
30.7 26.4 2.3 2.0
2.4 2.9 1.6 -2.4
-1.1 -1.3 -1.2 1.5
1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8
1.1 1.1 1.4 0.7
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
4024 59 1627 1383 114 690 150
4460 74 1776 1636 118 675 182
4732 76 1882 1735 103 820 116
5269 75 2100 1908 107 943 136
5100 75 2098 1719 97 971 139
5205 77 1992 1832 100 1059 145
5230 76 1850 1838 95 1220 151
5083 74 1651 1853 90 1257 158
4927 71 1477 1842 55 1319 163
1.6 2.6 1.5 2.3 -1.0 1.7 -2.6
0.8 -0.1 1.1 -0.1 -0.6 1.7 1.9
0.3 0.0 -1.3 0.7 -0.3 2.3 0.8
-0.6 -0.6 -2.2 0.0 -5.3 0.8 0.7
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
137
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Estonia: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
5500 5050 0 0 0 450 0 450 0 0 0
3354 2868 0 0 0 487 0 486 0 0 0
3186 2672 2 0 0 512 0 512 0 0 0
4210 3176 354 0 0 680 2 674 5 0 0
3310 2454 120 0 0 736 1 715 18 1 0
4060 2893 90 0 0 1078 1 1006 63 7 0
4177 2492 74 0 0 1612 2 1426 172 12 0
4108 2429 60 0 0 1618 2 1397 205 15 0
4123 2436 38 0 0 1649 2 1371 257 19 0
-5.3 -6.2
0.4 -0.8 51.3
2.4 0.2 -4.7
-0.1 -0.2 -6.4
1.3
3.7 13.2 3.4 70.7
8.2 2.3 7.2 25.3 23.8 19.6
0.2 0.4 -0.4 4.1 5.1 -0.7
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
4470 697 3153 0 3153 1222 -602
1995 293 1185 0 1185 583 -65
1593 272 744 0 744 662 -80
1471 30 873 0 873 800 -138
1697 88 1089 1 1088 814 -150
1550 84 1201 1 1200 765 -223
1338 81 1223 1 1222 836 -296
1392 77 1213 1 1212 867 -300
1451 74 1223 1 1222 880 -300
-9.8 -9.0 -13.4
0.6 -10.7 3.9
-13.4 -5.9
3.9 2.1
-2.3 -0.7 1.2 0.7 1.2 0.3
0.8 -1.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.5
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
9919 5967 2872 1222 0 -602 460
5347 3310 1039 583 0 -65 481
4696 2974 627 662 0 -80 513
5559 3191 1118 800 0 -138 589
4880 2542 1082 814 0 -150 593
5473 2976 1154 765 0 -223 801
5372 2573 1154 836 0 -296 1106
5350 2506 1124 867 0 -300 1153
5417 2510 1104 880 0 -300 1223
-7.2 -6.7 -14.1 -5.9
0.4 -1.6 5.6 2.1
1.0 0.1 0.6 0.3
0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.5
1.1
1.5
6.4
1.0
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
60.2 28.9 12.3 0.0 4.6
61.9 19.4 10.9 0.0 9.0
63.3 13.4 14.1 0.0 10.9
57.4 20.1 14.4 0.0 10.6
52.1 22.2 16.7 0.0 12.1
54.4 21.1 14.0 0.0 14.6
47.9 21.5 15.6 0.0 20.6
46.8 21.0 16.2 0.0 21.5
46.3 20.4 16.2 0.0 22.6
17178 2879
8691 2858
8511 2162
10203 2194
10697 2258
12883 2524
13994 2374
14580 2344
15255 2300
-6.8 -2.8
2.3 0.4
2.7 0.5
0.9 -0.3
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
5654 5085 210 357 2 0 0
2673 2491 80 100 2 0 0
2439 2200 12 226 2 0 0
2539 2294 10 227 8 0 0
2561 2383 1 158 19 0 0
2967 2789 0 72 106 0 0
2752 2354 3 125 271 0 0
2670 2276 2 107 285 0 0
2708 2276 2 97 333 0 0
-8.1 -8.0 -25.2 -4.5 -0.3
0.5 0.8 -20.9 -3.5 24.6
0.7 -0.1 9.4 -2.3 30.6
-0.2 -0.3 -2.9 -2.5 2.1
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
1906 1 0 1607 299
788 1 0 501 287
662 1 0 456 206
725 1 0 495 229
482 1 18 457 6
482 1 29 448 3
465 1 46 416 2
447 1 56 389 2
433 1 69 362 1
-10.0 0.0
-3.1 -0.1
-11.8 -3.7
0.0 -30.2
-0.3 0.7 9.5 -0.9 -8.8
-0.7 -0.1 4.2 -1.4 -4.5
Energy Branch Consumption
295
148
172
196
186
205
194
192
190
-5.3
0.8
0.4
-0.2
Non-Energy Uses
170
230
220
231
210
264
301
332
335
2.6
-0.4
3.6
1.1
6018
2496
2365
2783
2807
3103
3235
3320
3398
-8.9
1.7
1.4
0.5
2735 666 2069 1277 1166 841
787 429 358 966 252 492
529 200 328 928 329 579
645 192 453 889 479 769
694 189 504 880 444 789
842 219 623 921 497 843
908 234 674 945 504 878
964 242 722 932 512 911
1031 247 784 922 518 927
-15.2 -11.3 -16.8 -3.1 -11.9 -3.7
2.8 -0.5 4.4 -0.5 3.0 3.1
2.7 2.1 2.9 0.7 1.3 1.1
1.3 0.5 1.5 -0.2 0.3 0.5
703 1808 439 585 2086 397 0
193 858 202 386 593 265 0
117 750 134 427 511 425 0
98 965 207 518 547 447 0
101 966 240 547 519 434 0
128 1038 261 640 553 482 0
161 1041 268 676 573 514 1
174 1044 283 726 578 514 1
192 1009 297 788 594 517 0
-16.4 -8.4 -11.2 -3.1 -13.1 0.7
-1.5 2.6 6.0 2.5 0.1 0.2
4.8 0.7 1.1 2.2 1.0 1.7 27.0
1.8 -0.3 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 -4.5
Annual % Change
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
1.3
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
43.7 37.1 27.3 0.4 4.6 1.2 1.2 2.4 0.9 5.6 100.0
16.0 12.1 0.0 1.7 0.5 0.3 1.4 0.6
426
548
569
760
1035
1082
1150
17.6 13.9 10.7 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 1.7 0.6 3.1
18.4 12.5 15.0 11.1 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.5 2.3 0.6 2.8
18.3 12.4 15.2 11.2 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.4 2.3 0.6 2.5
19.8 14.0 17.0 12.6 0.1 1.2 0.2 0.4 2.4 0.7 2.1
18.0 12.4 15.4 10.8 0.1 1.3 0.2 0.4 2.5 0.8 1.8
17.7 12.1 15.0 10.4 0.1 1.4 0.2 0.5 2.5 0.9 1.8
17.8 12.2 15.0 10.4 0.1 1.5 0.2 0.5 2.5 1.0 1.8
40.2
42.2
41.9
45.3
41.2
40.6
40.8
2.9
6.2
1.1
-8.7
0.4
-9.4 -8.9 -11.7 -16.1 -13.5 -14.1 -3.6 -4.7 -5.7
0.9 0.4 0.9 1.9 -3.1 4.7 3.0 -0.3 -2.0
-0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 3.5 -1.7 0.5 0.8 3.7 -3.4
-0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -1.2 0.8 -0.9 0.1 0.0 2.0 0.1
Source: PRIMES
138
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Estonia: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
1.571 8.3 1196.0 3.74 44.3
1.448 5.7 943.4 2.99 36.7
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
1.372 7.6 618.0 2.96 33.2
1.348 11.1 501.2 2.70 25.9
1.333 11.2 436.1 3.11 33.9
1.323 13.5 406.9 3.10 27.6
1.311 15.4 348.1 2.86 24.3
1.292 17.4 308.3 2.81 25.3
1.267 19.4 279.4 2.77 26.0
1.3 16.7
1.8 16.2
2.0 17.7
2.5 18.3
3.2 20.6
3.7 21.3
3.9 20.1
-1.3 -0.9 -6.4 -2.3
-0.3 3.9 -3.4 0.5
-0.2 3.3 -2.2 -0.8
-0.3 2.3 -2.2 -0.3
4.6
4.8
2.1
319.4 136.3 402.7 37.6 40.4
219.8 146.4 106.6 42.8 26.9
100.0 100.0 100.0 33.8 19.1
69.4 60.7 104.0 32.2 19.0
62.5 69.8 106.8 31.5 22.4
59.0 63.5 95.1 29.4 22.2
55.1 59.0 84.3 28.5 22.1
51.4 53.8 75.9 27.5 22.0
48.6 48.6 68.3 25.8 21.7
-11.0 -3.1 -13.0 -1.1 -7.2
-4.6 -3.5 0.7 -0.7 1.6
-1.3 -1.7 -2.3 -1.0 -0.1
-1.2 -1.9 -2.1 -1.0 -0.2
0.64 1.56 1.66 0.93 1.05 2.89
0.70 1.55 2.18 0.48 1.00 2.90
0.67 1.28 1.50 0.30 0.82 2.92
0.62 1.36 1.27 0.25 0.98 2.95
0.62 1.38 1.38 0.23 0.96 2.89
0.61 1.37 1.46 0.18 0.89 2.86
0.49 1.37 1.48 0.18 0.88 2.80
0.46 1.36 1.43 0.17 0.90 2.76
0.44 1.33 1.41 0.17 0.87 2.66
0.5 -2.0 -1.1 -10.6 -2.5 0.1
-0.8 0.7 -0.8 -2.6 1.7 -0.1
-2.2 -0.1 0.7 -2.4 -0.8 -0.3
-1.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.2 -0.5
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
16.0 0.0
17.9 0.0
18.4 2.5
22.3 3.8
29.3 6.0
30.0 7.4
31.3 10.0
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
8511 0 7604 37 859 6 5 1 0 0
10203 0 9261 32 809 25 22 54 0 0
10697 0 9824 4 554 87 17 210 1 0
12883 0 11395 0 325 406 17 737 2 0
13994 0 10114 13 725 1116 22 2001 4 0
14580 0 10313 11 672 1178 22 2379 5 0
15255 0 10313 10 600 1301 22 2988 20 0
2.3
2.7
0.9
2.6 -20.4 -4.3 30.7 13.2 70.7
0.3 13.3 2.7 29.1 2.3 25.3 15.8
0.2 -2.9 -1.9 1.5 0.4 4.1 19.1
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
2575 0 3 2 1 0 0 2572 486 0 2348 205 12 7 0 0
2293 0 36 5 31 0 0 2257 345 0 2023 205 12 16 0 0
2423 0 115 5 108 2 0 2308 374 0 2056 206 7 39 0 0
2660 0 406 5 399 2 0 2254 330 0 1926 259 7 62 0 0
3257 0 940 6 930 4 0 2317 412 0 1918 239 3 157 0 0
3573 0 1095 6 1084 5 0 2478 469 0 1903 405 3 168 0 0
3893 0 1329 6 1303 20 0 2564 500 0 1903 464 2 195 0 0
-0.6
3.0
1.8
45.2 9.6 64.2
23.4 1.9 24.0 6.3
3.5 0.0 3.4 18.2
-1.1 -2.6
0.0 1.0
1.0 2.0
-1.3 0.0 -5.6 19.5
-0.7 1.5 -9.2 14.9
-0.1 6.9 -3.5 2.2
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
33.7
45.4
44.9
49.4
44.6
42.4
40.9
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
30.0 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
34.3 11.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0
35.2 16.1 0.0 3.0 0.0 3.0
35.1 15.8 0.0 9.0 0.0 9.0
37.4 18.7 0.0 22.5 0.0 22.5
39.2 21.1 0.0 24.6 0.0 24.6
38.8 21.0 0.0 28.4 0.0 28.4
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
10.0 4.5 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.4
8.1 2.0 5.2 0.5 0.1 0.2
10.3 2.6 6.8 0.4 0.2 0.4
14.2 2.7 10.0 0.3 0.7 0.4
14.4 2.7 10.1 0.4 0.8 0.4
15.5 2.7 10.9 0.4 1.1 0.4
16.1 2.8 11.0 0.4 1.5 0.4
16.7 2.8 11.1 0.4 2.0 0.4
17.4 2.9 11.1 0.4 2.6 0.4
0.3 -5.1 8.0 -13.8 -6.7 -1.6
3.4 0.1 4.1 -0.2 16.8 -0.3
1.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 6.0 0.6
0.8 0.4 0.1 0.4 5.3 0.4
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
11.5 4.5 7.0 0.0
5.4 1.5 3.8 0.0
12.0 3.9 8.1 0.0
16.5 5.8 10.6 0.0
15.1 6.6 8.5 0.0
17.4 7.6 9.8 0.0
19.0 8.3 10.7 0.0
20.5 9.2 11.4 0.0
22.1 10.1 12.0 0.0
0.5 -1.4 1.5
2.3 5.2 0.5
2.4 2.4 2.3
1.5 2.0 1.2
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
841 59 267 407 66 36 7
492 13 308 104 45 18 4
579 15 305 180 52 20 7
769 16 385 266 49 42 11
789 16 375 299 39 49 11
843 16 367 344 44 61 12
878 15 354 375 45 76 12
911 15 338 406 46 93 12
927 14 309 437 43 112 12
-3.7 -12.5 1.4 -7.8 -2.4 -5.9 0.0
3.1 0.2 2.1 5.2 -2.8 9.6 4.9
1.1 -0.3 -0.6 2.3 1.5 4.6 0.5
0.5 -0.6 -1.4 1.5 -0.5 3.9 0.2
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
139
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Finland: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
11860 1581 0 0 5006 5273 934 4338 0 0 0
13166 2061 15 0 4957 6133 1111 5021 1 0 0
14991 1207 37 0 5799 7949 1261 6681 7 1 0
16468 2129 205 0 6003 8131 1185 6930 15 1 0
16156 1705 0 0 5997 8454 1136 7265 45 8 0
19391 1268 0 0 8845 9278 1147 7933 139 59 0
20522 1276 0 0 9131 10115 1152 8555 295 113 0
20211 1308 0 0 9363 9540 1167 7833 414 126 0
19334 1309 0 0 9341 8684 1179 6956 443 105 0
2.4 -2.7
0.8 3.5
2.4 -2.9
-0.6 0.3
1.5 4.2 3.0 4.4 3.8
0.3 0.6 -1.0 0.8 21.0 30.6
4.3 1.8 0.1 1.6 20.6 30.3 22.2
0.2 -1.5 0.2 -2.0 4.2 -0.7 -12.0
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
18124 4378 10570 8930 1639 2261 915
15650 3774 8314 8579 -265 2839 723
18587 3533 10610 12164 -1553 3422 1021
19306 3338 10985 11068 -84 3598 1463
18730 4103 9256 10345 -1089 4206 1088
17097 3092 9074 10171 -1097 3721 860
16273 3140 8410 9537 -1127 3417 662
16176 3109 8130 9268 -1138 3544 559
16328 2991 8163 9303 -1140 3900 539
0.3 -2.1 0.0 3.1
0.1 1.5 -1.4 -1.6
-1.4 -2.6 -1.0 -0.8
0.0 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2
4.2 1.1
2.1 0.6
-2.1 -4.8
1.3 -2.0
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
29046 5327 10029 2261 5006 915 5508
29070 5950 8455 2839 4957 723 6146
32544 5087 9266 3422 5799 1021 7949
34666 4925 10625 3598 6003 1463 8053
34415 5808 8784 4206 5997 1088 8531
36008 4359 8595 3721 8845 860 9628
36314 4416 7929 3417 9131 662 10759
35898 4417 7640 3544 9363 559 10375
35158 4299 7660 3900 9341 539 9419
1.1 -0.5 -0.8 4.2 1.5 1.1 3.7
0.6 1.3 -0.5 2.1 0.3 0.6 0.7
0.5 -2.7 -1.0 -2.1 4.3 -4.8 2.3
-0.3 -0.3 -0.3 1.3 0.2 -2.0 -1.3
18.3 34.5 7.8 17.2 19.0
20.5 29.1 9.8 17.1 21.1
15.6 28.5 10.5 17.8 24.4
14.2 30.7 10.4 17.3 23.2
16.9 25.5 12.2 17.4 24.8
12.1 23.9 10.3 24.6 26.7
12.2 21.8 9.4 25.1 29.6
12.3 21.3 9.9 26.1 28.9
12.2 21.8 11.1 26.6 26.8
54367 5546
64052 6510
69976 5543
70540 5756
79215 6315
86931 7367
91064 7702
94165 8390
93798 8416
2.6 0.0
1.2 1.3
1.4 2.0
0.3 0.9
5451 3216 294 1015 926 0 0
6714 3882 256 1581 996 0 0
6923 3168 131 2106 1518 0 0
7538 2974 107 2384 2073 0 0
10545 4439 188 2941 2977 0 0
8359 2928 37 1672 3723 0 0
8667 2952 35 1440 4240 0 0
8427 2608 34 1673 4113 0 0
8383 2371 32 1739 4241 0 0
2.4 -0.1 -7.8 7.6 5.1
4.3 3.4 3.7 3.4 7.0
-1.9 -4.0 -15.5 -6.9 3.6
-0.3 -2.2 -0.8 1.9 0.0
12101 10735 0 573 793
14065 12067 0 548 1451
15357 13249 0 803 1306
15526 13248 0 954 1325
12967 10747 70 1150 999
13454 10602 180 1703 969
12957 9966 322 1682 988
12632 9695 337 1600 1000
13006 9723 386 1879 1017
2.4 2.1
-1.7 -2.1
3.4 5.1
3.7 -2.6
0.0 -0.8 16.5 3.9 -0.1
0.0 -0.2 1.8 1.1 0.3 -0.5
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
776
959
1281
1263
1221
1266
1239
1254
1182
5.1
-0.5
0.1
1492
1203
946
1149
1092
1156
1161
1157
1171
-4.4
1.4
0.6
0.1
21758
22069
24176
25157
24664
25374
25265
24756
24081
1.1
0.2
0.2
-0.5
9620 7353 2268 5333 2483 4321
9989 7629 2360 5430 2487 4162
12046 9446 2599 4541 3132 4457
11999 9070 2929 4849 3478 4831
11308 8234 3073 5071 3565 4721
11657 8189 3467 5184 3781 4753
11734 8150 3584 5143 3739 4648
11650 7980 3670 4895 3685 4527
11455 7779 3676 4730 3588 4308
2.3 2.5 1.4 -1.6 2.3 0.3
-0.6 -1.4 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.6
0.4 -0.1 1.5 0.1 0.5 -0.2
-0.2 -0.5 0.3 -0.8 -0.4 -0.8
1621 8131 1501 5068 1915 3522 0
1277 7591 1523 5608 2126 3944 0
1099 7535 1328 6487 2780 4946 0
966 7920 1156 6959 3597 4559 0
745 6725 893 7284 5042 3975 0
799 6578 1263 7628 4851 4255 1
818 6023 1181 7760 4792 4688 2
1154 5754 1172 7867 4496 4312 2
1282 5788 1079 7817 4702 3412 1
-3.8 -0.8 -1.2 2.5 3.8 3.5
-3.8 -1.1 -3.9 1.2 6.1 -2.2
0.9 -1.1 2.8 0.6 -0.5 1.7 18.4
4.6 -0.4 -0.9 0.1 -0.2 -3.1 -9.0
7256
7401
7848
9119
9976
9735
8792
70.1 53.7 20.2 2.6 12.5 2.4 3.0 13.1 3.8 12.6
70.3 37.5 54.1 20.5 2.5 11.8 2.1 3.0 14.2 3.9 12.3
71.3 40.4 55.6 28.0 1.8 7.3 2.1 2.7 13.7 3.6 12.1
62.0 32.0 47.9 19.8 1.9 8.0 2.3 2.6 13.4 3.8 10.3
58.3 31.4 45.4 19.2 1.7 7.6 2.0 2.2 12.7 3.9 9.0
57.7 31.0 44.9 18.2 1.6 8.8 1.8 2.2 12.3 4.0 8.8
58.1 31.7 45.3 18.5 1.2 10.3 1.7 2.0 11.5 4.1 8.7
97.1
97.4
98.7
85.9
80.8
79.9
80.5
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
72.2 54.4 17.8 1.4 14.0 6.5 2.1 12.7 3.7 14.2 100.0
55.6 21.8 1.6 12.3 5.9 1.8 12.2 3.3
0.8
2.4
-1.3
-0.3
0.2
-0.1 1.3 6.6 -1.2 -9.6 3.8 0.3 0.4 -1.2
0.3 3.4 -3.4 -5.3 -1.2 -1.2 0.4 -0.5 -0.4
-2.0 -2.5 -2.0 -3.7 -0.8 0.5 -0.7 -1.8 -0.7 0.8 -2.9
0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -3.0 3.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 0.5 -0.3
Source: PRIMES
140
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Finland: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
4.974 114.0 254.9 1.87 61.2
5.099 109.7 265.0 1.91 53.2
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
5.171 138.8 234.5 1.65 56.0
5.237 157.1 220.7 1.56 54.9
5.337 165.5 207.9 1.61 53.7
5.429 183.9 195.8 1.33 46.9
5.501 201.4 180.3 1.25 44.2
5.549 217.3 165.2 1.25 44.5
5.569 233.5 150.6 1.29 45.8
15.2 10.9
17.9 11.4
19.3 11.7
22.6 12.3
26.5 13.2
28.3 13.0
28.8 12.4
0.4 2.0 -0.8 -1.3
0.3 1.8 -1.2 -0.2
0.3 2.0 -1.4 -2.5
0.1 1.5 -1.8 0.3
2.5
3.2
0.8
134.0 132.1 94.6 35.9 46.0
126.6 141.3 96.3 35.5 45.8
100.0 100.0 100.0 35.5 38.2
82.1 91.2 101.6 37.8 36.9
73.7 93.9 99.0 36.6 35.8
67.2 87.8 93.7 33.8 35.5
62.1 80.4 84.3 31.7 33.9
58.0 71.3 76.4 29.3 32.4
54.2 63.8 68.8 26.7 30.5
-2.9 -2.7 0.6 -0.1 -1.8
-3.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.3 -0.7
-1.7 -1.5 -1.6 -1.4 -0.5
-1.4 -2.3 -2.0 -1.7 -1.1
0.23 1.62 1.46 1.21 0.84 2.94
0.24 1.46 1.24 1.09 0.70 2.93
0.19 1.28 1.03 0.52 0.97 2.94
0.18 1.24 0.98 0.43 0.87 2.94
0.20 1.04 0.64 0.41 0.75 2.90
0.13 1.04 0.68 0.44 0.69 2.83
0.13 0.97 0.65 0.38 0.60 2.74
0.12 1.01 0.75 0.37 0.59 2.72
0.12 1.06 0.90 0.37 0.56 2.67
-1.6 -2.3 -3.4 -8.1 1.4 0.0
0.2 -2.0 -4.7 -2.3 -2.5 -0.2
-4.3 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 -2.2 -0.6
-0.5 0.9 3.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2
29.2 0.3
28.5 0.4
30.7 2.1
34.6 4.9
38.0 8.8
37.8 9.6
35.0 11.8
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
69976 22475 14241 554 10676 7292 14657 78 2 0
70540 23267 11925 431 11917 9047 13782 170 3 0
79215 23248 14270 834 14056 13070 13206 525 7 0
86931 35057 9895 144 9290 17548 13338 1614 44 0
91064 36244 10007 136 8012 19761 13396 3426 81 0
94165 37242 9644 130 9472 19185 13570 4810 113 0
93798 37929 8633 126 8852 19245 13715 5154 144 0
1.2 0.3 0.0 4.2 2.8 6.0 -1.0 21.0 13.8
1.4 4.5 -3.5 -16.6 -5.5 4.2 0.1 20.6 27.3
0.3 0.5 -1.5 -0.8 1.0 -0.3 0.2 4.2 5.9
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
16630 2687 2882 2841 38 3 0 11060 5965 0 5562 3042 898 1558 0 0
17045 2690 3080 2994 82 4 0 11275 6033 0 5607 3007 897 1763 0 0
17582 2691 3291 2994 289 8 0 11601 6717 0 5626 3074 899 2001 0 0
21512 4207 3796 3068 682 46 0 13509 7122 0 5386 3312 478 4333 0 0
21740 4207 4527 3104 1339 84 0 13006 6801 0 5104 3091 346 4464 0 0
20981 4322 5084 3129 1838 117 0 11575 6758 0 3272 3072 325 4906 0 0
21269 4396 5280 3144 1987 149 0 11593 6535 0 2744 3414 176 5260 0 0
0.6 0.0 1.3 0.5 22.5 10.5
2.1 4.6 3.2 0.4 16.6 26.4
-0.2 0.4 1.5 0.1 4.0 5.9
0.5 1.2
1.1 0.1
-1.1 -0.4
0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5
-1.0 0.1 -9.1 8.4
-6.0 1.0 -6.5 1.7
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
46.1
45.4
49.4
44.0
45.6
48.6
47.8
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
40.7 38.3 0.0 63.6 32.1 31.5
38.0 41.0 0.0 65.6 33.0 32.6
34.4 39.5 0.0 63.2 29.3 33.8
37.9 40.8 0.0 77.8 40.3 37.4
37.6 38.0 0.0 80.1 39.8 40.3
39.2 39.1 0.0 79.6 39.5 40.0
37.8 37.7 0.0 81.2 40.4 40.8
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
74.6 8.5 52.0 3.7 6.1 4.3
72.8 8.0 50.9 3.6 5.8 4.5
80.0 7.7 56.6 3.9 7.7 4.2
87.0 7.5 62.8 4.0 8.8 3.8
89.5 7.6 64.5 4.3 9.1 3.9
96.2 7.7 68.9 4.7 10.9 4.0
100.1 7.9 70.4 5.0 12.8 4.1
103.8 8.1 71.6 5.3 14.8 4.1
106.7 8.2 71.8 5.5 16.9 4.1
0.7 -1.0 0.9 0.6 2.4 -0.4
1.1 -0.2 1.3 1.0 1.8 -0.6
1.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 3.4 0.4
0.6 0.4 0.2 0.9 2.9 0.1
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
35.8 26.3 8.4 1.1
34.5 24.5 9.6 0.4
42.4 32.0 10.1 0.3
41.8 31.9 9.7 0.2
40.4 29.7 10.4 0.2
42.3 31.1 10.9 0.2
43.5 32.0 11.4 0.2
45.7 33.8 11.7 0.2
47.9 35.9 11.8 0.2
1.7 2.0 1.9 -12.2
-0.5 -0.7 0.3 -4.3
0.8 0.7 0.9 1.3
1.0 1.2 0.4 0.9
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
4321 78 2023 1546 100 459 116
4162 72 1967 1479 102 408 134
4457 69 2089 1529 94 505 170
4831 66 2459 1448 97 565 196
4721 66 2427 1349 101 577 202
4753 65 2322 1401 105 654 206
4648 63 2193 1382 99 703 208
4527 61 2019 1394 91 753 208
4308 59 1777 1400 66 797 209
0.3 -1.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 1.0 3.9
0.6 -0.4 1.5 -1.2 0.7 1.3 1.7
-0.2 -0.4 -1.0 0.2 -0.2 2.0 0.3
-0.8 -0.7 -2.1 0.1 -3.9 1.3 0.0
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
141
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
France: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
111013 7625 3514 2516 81018 16339 4635 11575 0 19 110
127609 5359 3509 2793 97308 18641 6322 12171 0 15 132
131920 2267 2897 1505 107093 18160 5822 12181 7 26 124
136736 383 1479 909 116474 17492 4496 12761 83 22 130
135229 337 0 0 114683 20209 4900 13953 977 222 156
144856 207 0 0 117571 27078 4921 18041 2865 948 304
155930 0 0 0 114303 41627 4932 28858 4843 1999 995
158294 3 0 0 115272 43019 5147 27932 5496 2574 1870
163058 3 0 0 117977 45077 5202 27640 5988 3196 3051
1.7 -11.4 -1.9 -5.0 2.8 1.1 2.3 0.5
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
120596 13004 87127 76561 10566 24371 -3907
116805 9010 86307 79689 6619 27493 -6005
134196 13201 91185 85250 5936 35778 -5974
144346 13504 95364 85529 9835 40720 -5187
138037 11308 89902 84026 5876 42005 -5040
128645 7483 85987 82219 3768 40800 -5296
115383 7152 79409 79072 337 34572 -5323
112528 6912 75859 77307 -1448 34153 -4064
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
227754 19955 88316 26032 81018 -3907 16339
241418 15287 86611 29577 97308 -6005 18641
259828 15240 89539 35766 107093 -5975 18165
277086 14296 92991 41077 116474 -5188 17436
270484 11646 87120 42005 114683 -5040 20071
270593 7690 83079 40800 117571 -5296 26750
268373 7152 76469 34572 114303 -5323 41200
8.8 38.8 11.4 35.6 7.2
6.3 35.9 12.3 40.3 7.7
5.9 34.5 13.8 41.2 7.0
5.2 33.6 14.8 42.0 6.3
4.3 32.2 15.5 42.4 7.4
2.8 30.7 15.1 43.4 9.9
416667 61718
490848 69726
535963 72429
571367 80428
566841 59131
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
10983 7334 1920 1423 306 0 0
8553 5441 605 1216 1290 0 0
13122 6231 1284 4062 1545 0 0
16669 6404 1952 6288 2024 0 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
90122 80205 0 1019 8898
91635 83811 155 588 7081
98266 90956 328 312 6669
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
0.2 -17.3
1.4
0.4
2.8 1.2
0.7 1.1 -1.7 1.4 64.8 24.1 2.4
0.0 7.5 0.1 7.5 17.4 24.6 20.3
0.3 0.8 0.5 -0.4 2.1 4.8 11.9
107106 6593 71682 73674 -1992 32444 -3421
1.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 -5.6 3.9
0.3 -1.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 1.6
-1.8 -4.5 -1.2 -0.6 -24.9 -1.9
-0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -0.7
267818 6915 72855 34153 115272 -4064 42688
267068 6596 68587 32444 117977 -3421 44885
1.3 -2.7 0.1 3.2 2.8
0.4 -2.7 -0.3 1.6 0.7
-0.1 -4.8 -1.3 -1.9 0.0
0.0 -0.8 -1.1 -0.6 0.3
1.1
1.0
7.5
0.9
2.7 28.5 12.9 42.6 15.4
2.6 27.2 12.8 43.0 15.9
2.5 25.7 12.1 44.2 16.8
598563 62982
624606 66095
654605 73857
681000 77767
2.5 1.6
0.6 -2.0
1.0 1.1
0.9 1.6
14220 5239 192 6183 2597 9 0
12444 1675 459 6218 4005 87 0
15735 1543 0 4398 9279 514 0
17571 1416 1 5396 9234 1524 0
18609 1303 1 5544 8999 2762 0
1.8 -1.6 -3.9 11.1 17.6
0.8 -1.7 -17.3 4.3 5.3
1.0 -11.5 -46.0 -3.3 13.6 49.8
1.7 -1.7 8.8 2.3 -0.3 18.3
95011 88526 408 239 5838
91862 85561 1697 206 4398
90793 83653 2667 271 4203
88530 80356 3873 312 3989
87243 78530 4628 304 3781
84050 74864 5096 281 3809
0.9 1.3 -11.1 -2.8
-0.7 -0.6 17.9 -4.1 -4.1
-0.4 -0.6 8.6 4.3 -1.0
-0.5 -0.7 2.8 -1.0 -0.5
-0.6
9413
10501
10829
10252
10564
9260
9079
9120
8805
1.4
-0.2
-1.5
-0.3
13454
16838
15903
16133
15055
14786
14521
14307
14258
1.7
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
137226
142756
152708
157515
156872
158429
158149
156214
153186
1.1
0.3
0.1
-0.3
36439 23706 12733 37053 21698 42037
37119 21472 15647 37201 24144 44292
36887 22331 14556 42587 21648 51586
34001 20150 13850 45295 28279 49941
33760 18915 14845 45197 28584 49332
34210 18567 15643 45717 29166 49336
34688 18297 16391 45396 28999 49066
34880 17994 16886 44100 28436 48798
35168 17685 17484 43127 28303 46588
0.1 -0.6 1.3 1.4 0.0 2.1
-0.9 -1.6 0.2 0.6 2.8 -0.4
0.3 -0.3 1.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1
0.1 -0.3 0.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5
9017 67695 23400 25960 774 10380 0
6905 68410 27098 29456 447 10439 0
5775 72242 30880 33096 237 10478 0
5148 71510 33744 36337 182 10594 0
4349 68739 34648 36233 1620 11281 3
4038 65409 32926 39497 2220 14331 8
3798 61582 27974 41492 3821 19469 13
3818 58620 25111 44671 4021 19959 14
3564 54629 23320 47268 4097 20299 9
-4.4 0.7 2.8 2.5 -11.1 0.1
-2.8 -0.5 1.2 0.9 21.2 0.7
-1.3 -1.1 -2.1 1.4 9.0 5.6 14.2
-0.6 -1.2 -1.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 -3.4
16831
17055
19694
25863
37693
39464
40703
1.6
6.7
0.8
553.9
510.8 130.4 356.3 36.8 13.1 54.8 66.5 45.0 140.1 25.2 129.3
474.6 112.0 327.0 23.5 12.6 49.1 62.5 42.2 137.1 25.8 121.7
436.2 98.8 292.4 17.4 8.3 39.4 55.7 39.1 132.5 26.4 117.4
425.0 102.7 280.5 19.2 10.2 37.7 48.8 35.4 129.2 26.6 117.9
407.4 100.9 262.8 19.5 9.6 36.8 43.5 32.7 120.8 26.7 117.8
0.0
-0.8
372.9 39.7 19.1 69.7 61.7 32.2 150.6 26.7 154.3
541.3 158.7 379.9 47.4 16.1 60.7 65.2 44.7 145.8 26.7 134.7
0.6 -0.1 1.3 -1.2 1.1 -2.0 2.1 -1.9 -0.9
-0.5 -0.7 -3.7 -2.4 0.8 3.4 -0.7 -0.6 -1.8
-1.6 -2.7 -2.0 -7.2 -4.5 -3.2 -1.8 -1.4 -0.6 0.5 -1.0
-0.7 0.2 -1.1 1.2 1.4 -0.7 -2.4 -1.8 -0.9 0.1 0.0
99.8
97.6
92.1
85.5
78.6
76.6
73.4
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
554.8
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
352.9 40.1 16.8 78.7 55.4 39.4 122.5 32.4 169.5
344.8 27.6 18.7 75.7 52.4 41.0 129.5 28.5
Source: PRIMES
142
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
France: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
56.577 1302.7 174.8 1.55 52.4
57.753 1384.7 174.4 1.43 47.9
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
58.850 1589.7 163.4 1.44 51.1
60.825 1726.1 160.5 1.37 51.6
62.583 1759.1 153.8 1.32 50.5
64.203 1945.7 139.1 1.21 47.0
65.607 2144.4 125.1 1.09 42.5
66.846 2342.0 114.4 1.05 41.6
67.982 2550.1 104.7 0.98 39.6
144.7 9.1
160.1 9.3
165.4 9.4
189.0 9.7
227.9 10.6
250.7 10.7
256.1 10.0
0.4 2.0 -0.7 -0.8
0.6 1.0 -0.6 -0.9
0.5 2.0 -2.0 -1.9
0.4 1.7 -1.8 -1.0
1.3
3.3
1.2
128.3 103.2 124.1 40.1 51.9
120.9 99.3 128.9 40.6 47.3
100.0 100.0 100.0 45.2 38.9
86.6 94.4 120.2 42.7 39.0
86.1 94.9 117.8 40.9 38.9
80.6 87.2 108.1 37.1 38.6
74.8 79.7 97.3 34.9 37.8
68.9 72.1 87.2 32.3 37.3
64.0 65.5 79.6 28.4 35.9
-2.5 -0.3 -2.1 1.2 -2.9
-1.5 -0.5 1.7 -1.0 0.0
-1.4 -1.7 -1.9 -1.6 -0.3
-1.6 -1.9 -2.0 -2.1 -0.5
0.09 2.16 2.16 1.50 1.82 2.91
0.06 2.09 2.04 1.41 1.70 2.92
0.07 2.06 1.89 1.45 1.49 2.92
0.08 2.01 1.78 1.44 1.58 2.92
0.06 1.95 1.62 1.47 1.57 2.84
0.04 1.84 1.44 1.37 1.45 2.78
0.03 1.69 1.14 1.23 1.35 2.70
0.03 1.61 1.08 1.11 1.24 2.65
0.03 1.53 1.05 1.01 1.16 2.59
-2.4 -0.5 -1.3 -0.3 -2.0 0.0
-1.8 -0.5 -1.5 0.2 0.6 -0.3
-8.4 -1.5 -3.5 -1.8 -1.5 -0.5
0.3 -1.0 -0.8 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4
10.7 1.1
10.4 1.3
12.2 4.4
15.8 6.9
23.0 10.1
24.3 12.1
25.5 13.9
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
535963 415087 27802 5664 16069 3561 67698 77 5 0
571367 451448 28623 7913 25269 4865 52277 963 10 0
566841 444587 22015 451 24270 6038 56979 11361 666 473
598563 455782 7308 1599 28818 11376 57217 33309 2509 647
624606 443115 6397 2 24414 29458 57354 56310 5837 1720
654605 451764 5935 5 31319 28916 59849 63902 9123 3791
681000 463563 5840 5 31122 30870 60485 69629 13653 5834
0.6 0.7 -2.3 -22.4 4.2 5.4 -1.7 64.8 63.1
1.0 0.0 -11.6 -41.4 0.1 17.2 0.1 17.4 24.2 13.8
0.9 0.5 -0.9 7.7 2.5 0.5 0.5 2.1 8.9 13.0
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
107892 60309 20632 20568 57 7 0 26951 4599 0 9942 4574 11028 1407 0 0
111422 63242 21290 20551 723 16 0 26891 5371 0 8576 5523 11219 1572 0 0
117609 63242 27667 20652 6022 753 240 26700 4353 0 7087 6789 10920 1903 0 2
133709 64757 37576 20706 14470 2117 283 31375 4901 0 5873 12190 10560 2741 0 12
146244 66272 48514 20770 22569 4593 582 31458 5775 0 3846 13227 8425 5892 0 68
148229 56212 55124 21141 25639 7296 1048 36893 6108 335 2700 21240 6838 5913 0 202
161628 57688 61637 21322 27886 11069 1361 42303 7363 482 1249 28281 6183 6224 0 367
0.9 0.5 3.0 0.0 59.4 59.7 -0.1 -0.5
2.2 0.5 5.8 0.1 14.1 19.8 9.3 1.7 2.9
1.0 -1.4 2.4 0.3 2.1 9.2 8.9 3.0 2.5
-3.3 4.0 -0.1 3.1
-5.9 6.9 -2.6 12.0
-10.6 7.9 -3.0 0.5
46.5
18.3
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
52.5
53.8
52.6
49.0
46.8
48.3
46.1
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
34.8 3.2 0.0 90.8 77.4 13.3
34.4 3.4 0.0 89.2 79.0 10.2
31.9 3.2 0.0 91.8 78.4 13.3
34.0 4.3 0.0 93.7 76.1 17.6
33.3 5.2 0.0 95.1 70.9 24.1
33.3 5.2 0.4 94.3 69.0 25.3
32.8 5.8 0.5 94.6 68.1 26.5
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
772.5 41.3 599.8 73.9 53.5 3.9
819.1 41.6 652.5 64.5 56.4 4.1
908.2 43.0 711.9 80.7 69.1 3.5
937.7 43.9 740.3 88.9 61.5 3.1
952.1 47.5 740.3 94.0 66.9 3.2
1023.1 51.0 787.3 103.7 77.7 3.4
1069.1 54.3 810.6 111.7 88.9 3.5
1126.9 57.8 844.2 122.0 99.3 3.7
1193.0 61.3 886.5 132.2 109.1 3.9
1.6 0.4 1.7 0.9 2.6 -1.3
0.5 1.0 0.4 1.5 -0.3 -0.7
1.2 1.3 0.9 1.7 2.9 0.8
1.1 1.2 0.9 1.7 2.1 0.9
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
213.6 153.7 52.2 7.6
233.1 178.2 48.3 6.6
270.8 204.0 57.7 9.1
254.9 205.3 40.7 8.9
268.2 216.5 42.7 9.0
294.3 238.5 46.4 9.5
311.1 251.1 50.1 9.9
332.4 267.9 54.1 10.4
355.5 286.3 58.3 10.9
2.4 2.9 1.0 1.9
-0.1 0.6 -3.0 -0.1
1.5 1.5 1.6 1.0
1.3 1.3 1.5 0.9
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
42037 440 25694 10192 1153 3839 718
44292 438 27178 10029 1222 4690 735
51586 446 32862 9441 1376 6683 778
49941 446 32693 8938 1267 6291 306
49332 480 31237 9405 1297 6598 315
49336 503 29752 10286 1366 7101 328
49066 509 28388 10677 1372 7782 340
48798 511 27414 11309 1388 7823 353
46588 510 25422 11733 1328 7228 368
2.1 0.1 2.5 -0.8 1.8 5.7 0.8
-0.4 0.7 -0.5 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 -8.7
-0.1 0.6 -1.0 1.3 0.6 1.7 0.8
-0.5 0.0 -1.1 0.9 -0.3 -0.7 0.8
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
143
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Germany: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
186681 125125 4031 13532 37674 6320 1498 4797 6 11 7
141981 78834 3308 15099 37322 7417 1873 5348 147 41 9
133331 59599 3525 15800 43750 10656 1869 7877 804 96 10
136015 56488 5746 14224 42061 17496 1684 12980 2341 353 138
119216 45793 3120 12200 33909 24195 1811 16471 4199 1300 413
112309 40356 2630 11000 26429 31895 1883 19204 7606 2364 837
94829 31632 2200 10000 8919 42078 1922 22654 11341 4213 1948
84027 30546 0 8000 0 45481 1986 23152 14003 4337 2003
85244 29486 0 6500 0 49258 2052 23410 17130 4680 1987
-3.3 -7.1 -1.3 1.6 1.5 5.4 2.2 5.1 62.9 24.3 3.4
-1.1 -2.6 -1.2 -2.6 -2.5 8.5 -0.3 7.7 18.0 29.8 45.5
-2.3 -3.6 -3.4 -2.0 -12.5 5.7 0.6 3.2 10.4 12.5 16.8
-1.1 -0.7
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
166524 3182 121527 89820 31707 41747 68
196270 10963 131988 102213 29775 52904 415
205682 21603 126951 102638 24312 56865 263
215281 26805 123134 113980 9154 65734 -393
212129 29085 112346 110079 2266 71856 -1439
208588 30137 108069 108172 -103 69988 22
208098 36857 101322 102481 -1159 68336 1098
201648 37424 96133 98334 -2201 66156 1403
184794 32355 87023 90407 -3384 63341 1475
2.1 21.1 0.4 1.3 -2.6 3.1 14.5
0.3 3.0 -1.2 0.7 -21.1 2.4
-0.2 2.4 -1.0 -0.7
-1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.2
-0.5
-0.8 3.0
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
356271 131521 125712 54976 37674 68 6320
339454 92175 134828 67298 37322 415 7417
341166 83725 130919 71853 43750 263 10656
347147 82803 124323 80856 42061 -393 17496
328775 74878 112895 84056 33909 -1439 24476
318240 70492 108042 80988 26429 22 32267
300283 68488 100878 78336 8919 1098 42564
283054 67970 93513 74156 0 1403 46012
267429 61840 84414 69841 0 1475 49859
-0.4 -4.4 0.4 2.7 1.5 14.5 5.4
-0.4 -1.1 -1.5 1.6 -2.5
-0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -0.7 -12.5
-1.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.1
8.7
5.7
3.0 1.6
36.9 35.3 15.4 10.6 1.8
27.2 39.7 19.8 11.0 2.2
24.5 38.4 21.1 12.8 3.1
23.9 35.8 23.3 12.1 5.0
22.8 34.3 25.6 10.3 7.4
22.2 33.9 25.4 8.3 10.1
22.8 33.6 26.1 3.0 14.2
24.0 33.0 26.2 0.0 16.3
23.1 31.6 26.1 0.0 18.6
547549 66295
533711 62666
567219 74161
613054 73028
631888 71055
637039 68729
626820 67324
639084 68840
647163 68480
0.4 1.1
1.1 -0.4
-0.1 -0.5
0.3 0.2
92914 75541 2873 12676 1824 0 0
85884 69147 2090 11982 2665 0 0
85258 68066 1113 12906 3174 0 0
92517 66172 2051 19356 4938 0 0
90813 62709 791 20829 6305 179 0
87681 58944 1499 19759 7056 423 0
88997 56316 1930 20714 8759 1278 0
89998 55851 2151 21610 9109 1278 0
83263 50066 1159 21534 9226 1278 0
-0.9 -1.0 -9.0 0.2 5.7
0.6 -0.8 -3.4 4.9 7.1
-0.2 -1.1 9.3 -0.1 3.3 21.7
-0.7 -1.2 -5.0 0.4 0.5 0.0
165992 108022 0 6392 51578
141292 117793 31 3638 19831
137838 120748 222 1437 15431
145413 127966 1948 868 14632
136008 120590 3596 1528 10295
133398 117953 4548 1404 9494
128493 111376 5585 1279 10253
121191 104442 6029 733 9987
113277 95855 6394 1299 9729
-1.8 1.1 -13.9 -11.4
-0.1 0.0 32.1 0.6 -4.0
-0.6 -0.8 4.5 -1.8 0.0
-1.3 -1.5 1.4 0.2 -0.5
Energy Branch Consumption
15451
14982
14383
15267
13952
13457
12774
12148
11169
-0.7
-0.3
-0.9
-1.3
Non-Energy Uses
23473
23323
25457
24974
24212
24136
23971
23094
22201
0.8
-0.5
-0.1
-0.8
227197
222795
218098
218369
217495
218006
213505
204618
194976
-0.4
0.0
-0.2
-0.9
71457 48775 22682 58417 38691 58631
62001 42867 19134 63145 34569 63080
57896 39110 18787 62142 31872 66188
55666 37592 18074 67731 32823 62149
52500 34340 18160 69449 32799 62747
53052 34286 18765 68719 32422 63813
53751 34642 19109 65616 30836 63301
53097 33725 19372 61255 29024 61242
51868 32711 19157 58389 27493 57227
-2.1 -2.2 -1.9 0.6 -1.9 1.2
-1.0 -1.3 -0.3 1.1 0.3 -0.5
0.2 0.1 0.5 -0.6 -0.6 0.1
-0.4 -0.6 0.0 -1.2 -1.1 -1.0
37141 96799 42724 38391 9150 2991 0
14915 104905 52595 38912 8737 2731 0
10949 98462 56064 41496 6323 4804 0
9829 88706 59821 44497 7428 8088 0
7362 81466 61174 45385 11079 11024 5
7052 77618 58600 47525 13355 13846 10
7226 71871 54676 47858 14764 17092 18
7239 66301 49852 49117 14947 17144 19
6956 59989 45138 49968 15528 17388 10
-11.5 0.2 2.8 0.8 -3.6 4.9
-3.9 -1.9 0.9 0.9 5.8 8.7
-0.2 -1.2 -1.1 0.5 2.9 4.5 14.2
-0.4 -1.8 -1.9 0.4 0.5 0.2 -5.4
8852
14393
22739
30238
39785
43066
47131
9.9
5.8
1.7
1025.5
931.7 484.8 756.5 311.0 25.2 78.6 120.1 49.6 171.9 68.2 107.0
883.6 464.9 718.6 295.3 22.1 72.4 110.9 45.5 172.3 68.7 96.3
836.7 457.9 679.9 283.3 20.7 71.4 96.4 40.4 167.7 72.9 84.0
805.2 454.5 649.2 282.4 19.0 67.3 84.6 35.6 160.2 73.7 82.4
743.4 424.0 590.6 256.9 17.2 62.7 76.0 30.9 147.0 74.3 78.4
-1.6
-1.0
817.9 315.8 26.6 113.0 117.8 53.2 191.5 82.8 124.8
997.3 544.6 803.4 325.0 28.3 101.0 122.2 52.0 174.8 77.7 116.2
-1.4 -1.7 0.3 -3.7 -0.8 -4.2 1.2 -0.2 -3.8
-0.8 -0.2 -0.6 -3.6 0.2 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -1.5
-1.1 -0.6 -1.1 -0.9 -2.0 -0.9 -2.2 -2.0 -0.2 0.7 -2.4
-1.2 -0.8 -1.4 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 -2.4 -2.6 -1.3 0.2 -0.7
84.7
82.4
77.0
73.0
69.1
66.5
61.4
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
-4.2 1.6 0.7 0.3 4.2 1.1 0.2
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
1210.3 943.1 373.3 25.9 165.4 127.3 81.9 169.4 84.2 183.0 100.0
858.6 328.6 27.2 129.6 126.8 63.9 182.4 80.6
Source: PRIMES
144
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Germany: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
79.113 1830.3 194.7 2.65 46.4
81.539 1971.3 172.2 2.53 57.5
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
82.163 2177.2 156.7 2.40 59.9
82.501 2243.2 154.8 2.31 61.6
82.145 2281.5 144.1 2.30 64.0
81.858 2510.7 126.8 2.26 65.0
81.472 2723.6 110.3 2.26 68.7
80.907 2867.1 98.7 2.29 70.6
80.152 3008.8 88.9 2.21 68.4
200.9 9.2
240.5 10.7
253.8 11.1
287.0 11.4
337.6 12.4
363.3 12.7
362.1 12.0
0.4 1.8 -2.1 -1.0
0.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.4
-0.1 1.8 -2.6 -0.2
-0.2 1.0 -2.1 -0.2
2.4
2.9
0.7
132.8 113.2 156.4 49.7 43.7
118.3 111.0 123.5 45.4 43.4
100.0 100.0 100.0 45.0 42.5
89.5 107.4 98.2 40.5 37.7
83.1 110.1 95.3 39.2 37.8
77.8 99.0 85.8 35.9 37.2
72.4 87.8 75.2 34.2 35.4
68.4 78.1 67.0 32.3 33.6
64.2 70.8 60.3 29.3 31.3
-2.8 -1.2 -4.4 -1.0 -0.3
-1.8 1.0 -0.5 -1.4 -1.2
-1.4 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3 -0.6
-1.2 -2.1 -2.2 -1.5 -1.2
0.56 2.39 2.31 2.18 2.12 2.89
0.51 2.26 2.09 2.01 1.85 2.89
0.48 2.18 1.95 1.90 1.67 2.89
0.45 2.06 1.81 1.80 1.58 2.81
0.40 1.93 1.50 1.73 1.51 2.74
0.36 1.84 1.37 1.61 1.40 2.70
0.34 1.76 1.33 1.47 1.31 2.65
0.34 1.70 1.27 1.38 1.23 2.62
0.30 1.62 1.21 1.30 1.12 2.57
-1.4 -0.9 -1.7 -1.4 -2.4 0.0
-1.9 -1.2 -2.6 -0.9 -1.0 -0.5
-1.5 -0.9 -1.2 -1.6 -1.4 -0.3
-1.3 -0.8 -0.9 -1.2 -1.5 -0.3
3.9 0.6
6.4 3.9
10.1 7.1
13.4 9.1
18.0 11.7
20.3 13.4
23.3 15.5
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
567219 169575 292440 4733 59321 10011 21728 9350 60 0
613054 163026 285286 8811 91860 15988 19577 27224 1282 0
631888 131452 275951 4032 117806 24412 21054 48827 8146 208
637039 102456 259307 6999 113672 29942 21893 88445 13833 492
626820 34576 249575 8980 119102 36759 22349 131872 22121 1486
639084 0 251300 10013 125924 38609 23094 162822 25836 1486
647163 0 224747 5221 123688 39645 23856 199189 29331 1486
1.1 -2.5 -0.6 -1.6 7.1 9.3 -0.3 18.0 63.4
-0.1 -12.5 -1.0 8.3 0.1 4.2 0.6 10.4 10.5 21.7
0.3
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
112510 21301 10477 4268 6095 114 0 80731 13526 0 51482 20674 6659 1916 0 0
121873 20680 24021 4081 18433 1508 0 77172 16773 0 48960 19428 6354 2430 0 0
141003 15521 40427 4246 27723 8458 0 85055 21040 0 47689 26974 5356 5006 0 30
166811 12031 59342 4310 40672 14360 0 95438 22899 0 47882 36244 4635 6621 0 56
182458 4049 83826 4427 56926 22472 0 94584 23681 646 44700 35836 6205 7673 0 170
194064 0 95571 4616 64628 26327 0 98493 25410 646 39694 41141 8600 8889 0 170
206739 0 110251 4694 75626 29932 0 96488 27690 646 35620 42538 8114 10046 0 170
2.3 -3.1 14.5 -0.1 16.4 53.8
2.6 -12.6 7.6 0.4 7.5 10.3
1.3
0.5 4.5
1.1 1.2
-0.8 2.7 -2.2 10.1
-0.6 2.9 1.5 4.4
0.2 1.6 0.0 -2.2 1.7 2.7 2.7
19.0
0.0
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
53.7
53.6
48.1
41.3
37.3
35.8
34.1
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
37.0 11.7 0.0 37.2 29.9 7.3
37.4 13.9 0.0 37.0 26.6 10.5
40.0 19.4 0.0 37.0 20.8 16.2
40.3 23.6 0.0 40.4 16.1 24.3
40.2 24.6 0.9 39.8 5.5 34.2
40.8 24.6 0.9 39.4 0.0 39.4
40.8 25.0 1.0 45.4 0.0 45.4
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
-1.0 -5.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 4.2 2.9 0.0
2.8 0.6 2.9 2.9
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
888.1 73.1 698.4 76.1 37.4 3.1
1033.4 68.5 830.5 85.4 46.3 2.7
1065.5 69.0 849.6 90.0 54.7 2.2
1098.9 67.1 875.7 92.3 61.7 2.0
1112.3 68.5 881.4 93.4 66.9 2.1
1208.0 73.3 949.6 101.8 81.1 2.2
1262.7 76.9 978.9 109.5 95.0 2.3
1295.3 78.9 990.1 114.6 109.3 2.4
1329.2 80.6 1004.9 119.3 121.9 2.4
1.8 -0.6 2.0 1.7 3.9 -3.1
0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.4 2.0 -0.7
1.3 1.2 1.1 1.6 3.6 1.0
0.5 0.5 0.3 0.9 2.5 0.4
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
331.7 175.2 101.7 54.8
372.3 237.8 70.5 64.0
429.8 280.7 82.7 66.5
469.6 310.1 95.4 64.1
507.7 338.9 103.6 65.2
550.4 366.0 113.5 71.0
568.1 373.1 120.2 74.8
577.3 377.0 123.4 76.9
584.4 380.5 125.3 78.6
2.6 4.8 -2.0 1.9
1.7 1.9 2.3 -0.2
1.1 1.0 1.5 1.4
0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
58631 779 37559 12208 2118 5307 660
63080 721 39747 13949 2131 5975 558
66188 716 39405 16490 1950 7345 281
62149 682 35052 15960 1830 8304 321
62747 690 33748 17381 1887 8714 327
63813 716 32415 18539 1963 9829 352
63301 714 30987 18195 1932 11107 367
61242 692 29178 17514 1857 11627 374
57227 664 26642 16658 1634 11250 379
1.2 -0.8 0.5 3.1 -0.8 3.3 -8.2
-0.5 -0.4 -1.5 0.5 -0.3 1.7 1.5
0.1 0.3 -0.9 0.5 0.2 2.5 1.2
-1.0 -0.7 -1.5 -0.9 -1.7 0.1 0.3
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
145
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Greece: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
9155 7077 835 138 0 1105 152 893 0 56 3
9741 7911 460 44 0 1326 303 935 3 82 3
10011 8222 281 42 0 1466 318 1010 39 99 2
10316 8538 101 18 0 1659 431 1015 109 102 1
9805 7948 82 24 0 1750 344 998 269 138 1
10765 7942 60 0 0 2763 355 1259 614 470 65
11479 7361 40 0 0 4078 375 1670 1116 684 233
11650 7488 0 0 0 4162 385 1393 1304 738 341
12198 7474 0 0 0 4724 413 1489 1499 801 521
0.9 1.5 -10.3 -11.2
-0.2 -0.3 -11.6 -5.5
1.6 -0.8 -6.9
0.6 0.2
2.9 7.6 1.2 74.7 5.8 -4.7
1.8 0.8 -0.1 21.4 3.4 -4.1
8.8 0.9 5.3 15.3 17.4 71.5
1.5 1.0 -1.1 3.0 1.6 8.4
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
15473 988 14424 14802 -378 0 61
18268 925 17275 16997 277 0 69
22065 768 19610 20508 -898 1689 -1
23448 371 20419 19443 977 2332 325
23675 208 19817 20129 -311 3173 401
24412 222 19795 20108 -313 3688 436
24201 249 18883 19317 -434 3991 404
25018 273 18778 19228 -450 5022 390
25310 294 18343 18848 -505 5709 385
3.6 -2.5 3.1 3.3
0.7 -12.2 0.1 -0.2
0.2 1.8 -0.5 -0.4
0.4 1.7 -0.3 -0.2
6.5
2.3 0.1
3.6 -0.5
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
22338 8091 12942 138 0 61 1105
24228 8783 14006 44 0 69 1326
28217 9040 16007 1705 0 -1 1466
31352 8952 18063 2354 0 325 1659
30867 8157 17288 3197 0 401 1825
32448 8163 17125 3688 0 436 3035
32854 7610 16096 3991 0 404 4752
33721 7761 15830 5022 0 390 4718
34450 7767 15285 5709 0 385 5303
2.4 1.1 2.1 28.6
0.9 -1.0 0.8 6.5
0.6 -0.7 -0.7 2.2
0.5 0.2 -0.5 3.6
2.9
2.2
0.1 10.0
-0.5 1.1
36.2 57.9 0.6 0.0 4.9
36.3 57.8 0.2 0.0 5.5
32.0 56.7 6.0 0.0 5.2
28.6 57.6 7.5 0.0 5.3
26.4 56.0 10.4 0.0 5.9
25.2 52.8 11.4 0.0 9.4
23.2 49.0 12.1 0.0 14.5
23.0 46.9 14.9 0.0 14.0
22.5 44.4 16.6 0.0 15.4
34767 5818
41291 6451
53415 8430
59416 10124
61331 10127
67826 10847
73377 11197
80681 12248
86012 12899
4.4 3.8
1.4 1.9
1.8 1.0
1.6 1.4
8619 6890 1711 18 0 0 0
9938 7810 2076 14 38 0 0
11693 8234 2114 1280 64 0 0
12405 8693 2055 1605 52 0 0
11529 7894 1542 2058 34 0 0
11957 7910 1374 2572 38 63 0
11729 7336 1039 2597 525 231 0
12634 7468 623 3623 580 340 0
13331 7458 455 4250 649 519 0
3.1 1.8 2.1 53.1
-0.1 -0.4 -3.1 4.9 -6.0
0.2 -0.7 -3.9 2.4 31.3
1.3 0.2 -7.9 5.0 2.1 8.4
16747 16670 0 0 77
17954 17901 0 0 52
22504 22473 0 0 30
21602 21510 0 0 93
20672 20525 144 0 3
20787 20510 274 0 3
20266 19724 539 0 2
20140 19618 519 0 2
19825 19242 580 0 2
3.0 3.0
-0.8 -0.9
-0.2 -0.4 14.1
-0.2 -0.2 0.7
-8.8
-21.0
-1.8
-1.4
1194
1172
1558
1755
1731
1743
1677
1758
1733
2.7
1.1
-0.3
0.3
672
456
719
761
771
831
902
942
970
0.7
0.7
1.6
0.7
14541
15838
18560
20800
21205
22472
22989
23203
23361
2.5
1.3
0.8
0.2
3945 2535 1410 3057 1718 5821
4114 2493 1621 3332 1947 6445
4445 2727 1718 4486 2417 7212
4143 2573 1570 5489 3083 8085
4039 2398 1640 5703 3163 8300
4181 2498 1683 6250 3438 8603
4335 2623 1712 6435 3522 8697
4399 2670 1728 6355 3610 8839
4461 2711 1750 6377 3711 8812
1.2 0.7 2.0 3.9 3.5 2.2
-1.0 -1.3 -0.5 2.4 2.7 1.4
0.7 0.9 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.5
0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.1
1053 10073 15 2448 0 952 0
1074 10837 14 2931 0 982 0
888 12631 257 3710 28 1046 0
446 14278 585 4377 49 1066 0
262 14247 675 4644 207 1169 1
252 14434 532 5172 321 1758 1
273 13991 633 5584 442 2061 4
292 13813 668 6104 515 1808 3
309 13471 699 6501 524 1856 3
-1.7 2.3 33.0 4.2 0.9
-11.5 1.2 10.1 2.3 22.1 1.1
0.4 -0.2 -0.6 1.9 7.9 5.8 20.9
1.2 -0.4 1.0 1.5 1.7 -1.0 -3.2
2.8
8.9
1.0
1.7
-0.2
2.3 2.6 2.3 0.6 4.9 0.1 2.1 1.2 0.1
0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -3.3 3.2 1.6 1.2 0.1 -2.3
-0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -3.8 -0.6 0.1 -1.4 0.0 1.9 -1.1
0.3 0.9 0.2 0.6 2.9 -0.1 -0.9 -1.8 0.1 1.3 0.2
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
101.4
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
71.1 34.1 2.4 9.3 4.6 3.4 17.2 7.2 23.1
78.0 39.0 2.2 9.8 4.8 3.2 19.1 7.7
1370
1507
1815
2843
4262
4298
4724
120.5 88.9 43.9 3.1 9.9 7.5 3.4 21.3 8.1 23.5
127.5 67.9 95.8 46.3 3.5 8.2 9.7 4.2 23.9 8.3 23.5
117.6 61.9 90.7 42.4 3.0 7.1 10.2 4.0 24.0 8.2 18.7
118.2 63.2 91.2 43.1 2.6 6.6 10.7 3.6 24.6 8.9 18.1
112.9 60.9 86.3 39.8 2.1 6.6 10.4 3.4 24.1 9.8 16.7
115.8 64.5 88.4 41.4 2.8 6.5 9.9 3.1 24.6 10.5 16.9
116.4 66.5 88.3 42.3 2.7 6.6 9.5 2.9 24.4 11.2 17.0
118.9
125.8
115.9
116.6
111.3
114.2
114.8
Source: PRIMES
146
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Greece: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
10.121 127.6 175.0 3.18 62.2
10.595 135.8 178.4 3.22 65.8
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
10.904 160.9 175.4 3.15 69.4
11.083 197.6 158.6 3.05 68.6
11.307 219.4 140.7 2.94 70.7
11.476 251.9 128.8 2.81 69.4
11.556 290.6 113.0 2.63 67.8
11.575 323.2 104.3 2.62 68.2
11.573 351.6 98.0 2.56 67.5
17.2 10.7
21.1 10.7
22.8 10.4
26.9 10.7
34.0 11.7
38.3 11.8
40.5 11.5
0.7 2.3 0.0 -0.1
0.4 3.2 -2.2 -0.7
0.2 2.9 -2.2 -1.1
0.0 1.9 -1.4 -0.3
2.8
4.1
1.8
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
84.1 79.7 99.0 41.7 79.8
92.5 79.3 104.6 39.9 79.3
100.0 100.0 100.0 36.3 66.6
74.3 99.6 102.6 35.0 63.2
68.0 95.7 95.5 34.3 61.1
62.6 91.0 89.5 31.9 60.8
57.1 82.2 79.1 30.0 58.5
53.5 73.7 72.5 28.6 56.1
50.6 68.3 68.3 26.8 53.5
1.7 2.3 0.1 -1.4 -1.8
-3.8 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9
-1.7 -1.5 -1.9 -1.3 -0.4
-1.2 -1.8 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9
Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
0.98 2.38 2.36 1.51 1.96 2.96
0.94 2.32 2.37 1.43 1.65 2.96
0.82 2.26 2.22 1.66 1.40 2.95
0.77 2.21 1.98 1.77 1.37 2.95
0.65 2.14 1.75 1.79 1.25 2.90
0.59 2.02 1.57 1.71 1.05 2.86
0.50 1.94 1.53 1.61 0.98 2.77
0.47 1.90 1.48 1.56 0.86 2.78
0.45 1.85 1.47 1.49 0.77 2.76
-1.8 -0.5 -0.6 0.9 -3.3 0.0
-2.3 -0.6 -2.3 0.8 -1.1 -0.2
-2.6 -1.0 -1.3 -1.1 -2.5 -0.4
-0.9 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -2.3 0.0
7.2 0.0
7.0 0.0
8.2 2.2
12.2 4.1
18.0 8.1
18.0 7.8
19.7 9.0
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
53415 0 33585 9354 6149 183 3692 451 0 0
59416 0 35610 9188 8154 182 5016 1266 1 0
61331 0 33543 8108 12305 151 3999 3131 94 0
67826 0 33616 6572 15197 153 4129 7144 941 74
73377 0 31301 4984 14747 2054 4358 12971 2693 269
80681 0 32318 2809 19778 2276 4477 15167 3460 395
86012 0 32318 2045 22024 2560 4805 17431 4224 604
1.4
1.8
1.6
0.0 -1.4 7.2 -1.9 0.8 21.4
-0.7 -4.7 1.8 29.8 0.9 15.3 39.8
0.3 -8.5 4.1 2.2 1.0 3.0 4.6 8.4
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
10288 0 2585 2359 226 0 0 7703 200 0 4507 1114 2054 28 0 0
11926 0 2887 2395 491 1 0 9039 361 0 4799 1899 2282 59 0 0
14966 0 3843 2395 1371 76 0 11124 575 0 4799 3618 2622 85 0 0
19061 0 6195 2576 2936 682 0 12866 760 0 4241 6198 2335 85 0 8
23212 0 9612 2871 5138 1602 0 13600 905 0 4375 6743 1940 511 0 31
26048 0 11126 2926 6137 2062 0 14922 1115 0 4056 8635 1607 579 0 45
29471 0 13001 3329 7187 2485 0 16469 1116 0 4056 10122 1575 647 0 69
3.8
4.5
2.4
4.0 0.2 19.8
9.6 1.8 14.1 35.6
3.1 1.5 3.4 4.5
3.7 11.2
2.0 4.6
1.9 2.1
0.6 12.5 2.5 11.8
-0.9 6.4 -3.0 19.7
-0.8 4.1 -2.1 2.4
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
54.9
52.8
43.8
38.3
34.3
33.6
31.7
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
36.2 1.6 0.0 8.1 0.0 8.1
36.8 1.9 0.0 10.9 0.0 10.9
40.4 5.0 0.0 12.0 0.0 12.0
40.0 6.0 0.0 18.3 0.0 18.3
39.1 5.7 0.0 30.5 0.0 30.5
39.2 7.2 0.0 31.9 0.0 31.9
38.4 6.7 0.0 34.4 0.0 34.4
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
8.4
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
85.8 17.7 37.5 2.8 22.1 5.7
99.2 20.2 47.5 2.3 22.8 6.3
128.7 21.7 66.7 3.1 29.9 7.3
152.9 21.7 89.7 3.4 31.1 7.1
170.2 22.2 102.7 3.7 34.1 7.4
185.5 22.6 108.7 4.2 42.3 7.7
197.1 23.1 110.5 4.6 50.9 8.0
207.1 23.3 110.3 4.8 60.6 8.2
217.3 23.4 110.5 5.0 70.1 8.3
4.1 2.0 5.9 0.9 3.1 2.6
2.8 0.2 4.4 2.0 1.3 0.1
1.5 0.4 0.7 2.0 4.1 0.7
1.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 3.2 0.4
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
28.0 20.8 0.6 6.6
31.4 24.0 0.3 7.1
38.1 29.0 0.4 8.7
43.2 32.5 0.6 10.1
40.3 28.7 0.9 10.7
44.0 31.5 1.0 11.6
47.5 33.8 1.1 12.6
52.0 37.1 1.2 13.7
55.8 40.0 1.2 14.6
3.1 3.4 -3.5 2.8
0.6 -0.1 7.4 2.1
1.7 1.6 2.3 1.7
1.6 1.7 1.2 1.4
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
5821 190 1657 2066 75 1264 568
6445 214 2092 2309 57 1226 546
7212 225 2729 2380 60 1325 493
8085 220 3464 2517 58 1181 645
8300 222 3816 2223 76 1284 678
8603 221 3647 2419 85 1524 708
8697 214 3461 2501 88 1695 738
8839 205 3299 2624 88 1858 764
8812 195 3042 2686 82 2024 782
2.2 1.7 5.1 1.4 -2.2 0.5 -1.4
1.4 -0.1 3.4 -0.7 2.4 -0.3 3.2
0.5 -0.4 -1.0 1.2 1.4 2.8 0.8
0.1 -0.9 -1.3 0.7 -0.6 1.8 0.6
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
147
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Hungary: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
14157 3948 2330 3812 3544 523 15 422 0 0 86
13466 3095 2339 3788 3618 626 14 526 0 0 86
11215 2893 1673 2475 3658 516 15 415 0 0 86
10644 1748 1780 2331 3569 1217 17 1110 1 2 87
10561 1720 1200 2200 3787 1654 13 1552 15 10 65
11162 1519 1000 2000 4465 2178 21 2008 26 29 93
12107 1527 1000 1842 4497 3240 90 2602 47 229 273
12499 1523 900 1742 4497 3837 198 2793 59 257 531
12759 1497 800 1700 4497 4265 202 2840 69 315 840
-2.3 -3.1 -3.3 -4.2 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.2
-0.6 -5.1 -3.3 -1.2 0.3 12.4 -1.9 14.1
0.0
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
14465 1686 6651 6505 145 5170 958
12652 1395 5519 5962 -444 5532 207
14026 1081 5366 5893 -527 7283 296
17519 1303 5872 6334 -462 9807 535
17738 1324 6508 6609 -101 9488 396
18783 1337 7358 7430 -72 9700 356
18055 1318 7407 7477 -70 8934 283
17536 1318 7467 7543 -76 8446 248
17235 1307 7361 7472 -111 8284 218
-0.3 -4.3 -2.1 -1.0
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
28681 5969 8774 8913 3544 958 523
25896 4549 7721 9175 3618 207 626
25016 3967 6923 9657 3658 296 516
28006 3054 7537 12094 3569 535 1217
28299 3045 7708 11688 3787 396 1676
29945 2857 8358 11700 4465 356 2210
30162 2845 8407 10776 4497 283 3354
30035 2841 8367 10188 4497 248 3894
29993 2804 8161 9984 4497 218 4329
20.8 30.6 31.1 12.4 1.8
17.6 29.8 35.4 14.0 2.4
15.9 27.7 38.6 14.6 2.1
10.9 26.9 43.2 12.7 4.3
10.8 27.2 41.3 13.4 5.9
9.5 27.9 39.1 14.9 7.4
9.4 27.9 35.7 14.9 11.1
9.5 27.9 33.9 15.0 13.0
9.3 27.2 33.3 15.0 14.4
28431 6572
34011 7502
35185 7991
35749 6769
37696 6104
41740 6378
44696 6760
48272 7232
4970 2871 440 1636 24 0 0
6113 2977 1447 1634 55 0 0
6107 2853 1052 2140 62 0 0
5659 1924 122 3078 534 0 0
5276 1983 55 2490 747 0 0
5374 1753 49 2613 944 15 0
5798 1768 52 2326 1486 166 0
11720 8870 0 1146 1704
10716 8536 0 789 1392
9261 7622 0 471 1168
10031 8584 5 629 813
10481 8837 163 710 771
11291 9518 245 703 825
Energy Branch Consumption
1459
1390
1243
1657
1693
Non-Energy Uses
1584
1631
1596
2326
2288
19184
15711
15759
18080
6525 4160 2365 6377 3251 3031
3808 2691 1117 5833 3411 2660
3461 2536 925 5276 3759 3263
2502 6029 5941 2717 1570 425 0
965 4158 6370 2385 1287 545 0
668 4186 6503 2531 1440 430 0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
-2.8
1.4 -1.2 -1.8 -1.8 1.7 7.0 21.6 5.3 11.9 37.4 15.5
0.5 -0.2 -2.2 -0.8 0.0 2.8 8.4 0.9 4.0 3.2 11.9
2.4 2.0 1.9 1.2
0.2 0.0 1.3 1.2
-0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
3.5 -11.1
2.7 3.0
-0.6 -3.3
-0.8 -2.6
-1.4 -4.0 -2.3 0.8 0.3 -11.1 -0.1
1.2 -2.6 1.1 1.9 0.3 3.0 12.5
0.6 -0.7 0.9 -0.8 1.7 -3.3 7.2
-0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 0.0 -2.6 2.6
51161 7453
2.2 2.0
0.7 -2.7
1.7 1.0
1.4 1.0
6284 1778 151 2328 1614 414 0
6821 1758 88 2534 1709 731 0
2.1 -0.1 9.1 2.7 10.2
-1.5 -3.6 -25.5 1.5 28.3
0.9 -1.1 -0.7 -0.7 7.1
1.6 -0.1 5.5 0.9 1.4 15.9
11252 9572 386 478 814
11239 9531 439 460 809
11044 9312 478 459 794
-2.3 -1.5
1.2 1.5
-8.5 -3.7
4.2 -4.1
0.7 0.8 9.0 -3.9 0.5
-0.2 -0.3 2.1 -0.4 -0.2
1795
1805
1788
1711
-1.6
3.1
0.6
-0.5
2382
2451
2458
2463
0.1
3.7
0.7
0.0
18686
19788
19948
19656
19446
-1.9
1.7
0.7
-0.3
3430 2314 1116 6381 4073 4196
3400 2250 1149 6335 4035 4916
3499 2303 1196 6544 4182 5564
3488 2285 1204 6525 4114 5821
3424 2226 1198 6281 4038 5912
3383 2175 1208 6193 4026 5844
-6.1 -4.8 -9.0 -1.9 1.5 0.7
-0.2 -1.2 2.2 1.8 0.7 4.2
0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.7
-0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 0.0
692 4812 7852 2780 1297 647 0
654 5289 7769 2837 1261 875 1
686 5899 7571 3106 1351 1173 1
694 5955 7097 3252 1407 1541 3
705 5946 6415 3484 1518 1586 3
701 5792 6087 3690 1584 1591 2
-12.4 -3.6 0.9 -0.7 -0.9 0.1
-0.2 2.4 1.8 1.1 -1.3 7.4
0.6 1.2 -0.9 1.4 1.1 5.8 17.5
0.1 -0.3 -1.5 1.3 1.2 0.3 -4.5
469
798
1284
1720
2667
2982
3295
76.3 53.7 21.5 1.6 6.3 8.6 6.2 9.5 3.7 18.8
77.5 29.6 55.0 17.3 2.0 6.2 10.5 6.7 12.2 3.8 18.8
75.4 27.7 55.1 16.1 2.2 6.0 10.2 6.7 14.0 3.7 16.5
75.0 26.9 56.1 15.4 2.4 5.9 10.2 6.6 15.6 4.0 14.9
72.2 26.0 53.9 14.3 2.3 5.7 9.7 6.1 16.0 4.2 14.1
71.0 26.2 52.5 14.5 2.2 5.1 8.9 5.7 16.0 4.3 14.2
69.6 26.5 51.3 14.8 2.0 4.8 8.5 5.5 15.7 4.4 14.0
78.7
80.0
77.8
77.3
74.5
73.3
71.8
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
96.9 65.7 20.5 2.6 14.7 13.7 5.6 8.6 5.3 25.9 100.0
57.0 23.0 2.4 8.7 9.9 5.5 7.6 3.7
10.6
7.6
2.1
-2.4
-0.1
-2.0 0.5 -4.7 -8.1 -4.6 1.1 0.9 -3.5 -3.1
0.3 -2.9 3.4 -0.5 1.8 0.7 4.0 -0.1 -1.3
-0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.9 1.4 1.3 -1.6
-0.4 0.2 -0.5 0.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.3 -1.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.1
Source: PRIMES
148
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Hungary: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
10.375 66.0 434.3 2.29 50.4
10.337 59.1 437.9 2.20 48.9
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
10.222 72.0 347.4 2.15 56.1
10.098 88.7 315.8 1.96 62.6
10.023 87.6 323.0 1.95 62.7
9.964 101.1 296.1 1.87 62.7
9.893 114.8 262.8 1.79 59.9
9.790 127.6 235.4 1.75 58.4
9.651 141.2 212.4 1.71 57.5
13.0 18.0
14.5 16.4
16.0 18.3
19.5 19.3
24.1 21.0
27.3 21.4
28.7 20.3
-0.1 0.9 -2.2 -0.6
-0.2 2.0 -0.7 -1.0
-0.1 2.7 -2.0 -0.9
-0.2 2.1 -2.1 -0.4
2.1
4.2
1.8
248.3 123.0 81.4 25.9 26.1
156.7 126.8 103.5 25.3 32.6
100.0 100.0 100.0 24.2 45.9
79.0 89.6 86.0 24.9 59.7
81.5 93.8 86.8 25.2 63.0
76.0 80.7 76.1 25.1 63.3
69.6 70.6 65.4 25.3 60.5
63.4 61.2 57.3 24.8 57.2
59.0 53.7 51.2 23.6 53.1
-8.7 -2.1 2.1 -0.7 5.8
-2.0 -0.6 -1.4 0.4 3.2
-1.6 -2.8 -2.8 0.0 -0.4
-1.6 -2.7 -2.4 -0.7 -1.3
0.42 2.22 2.25 2.15 1.71 2.84
0.45 2.02 2.28 1.70 1.60 2.85
0.40 1.94 1.83 1.62 1.66 2.90
0.33 1.97 1.81 1.65 1.65 2.91
0.28 1.97 1.76 1.61 1.65 2.84
0.25 1.94 1.68 1.55 1.58 2.81
0.22 1.87 1.62 1.48 1.48 2.74
0.21 1.82 1.49 1.41 1.42 2.71
0.20 1.77 1.43 1.37 1.37 2.68
-0.6 -1.3 -2.1 -2.8 -0.3 0.2
-3.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.2
-2.7 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -0.3
-0.8 -0.5 -1.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.2
2.9 0.0
4.3 0.2
6.7 3.7
8.5 4.9
13.0 7.4
14.7 8.4
16.4 9.4
35185 14177 9924 3901 6885 120 178 0 0 0
35749 13832 6910 505 12572 1717 203 10 0 0
37696 14681 7208 268 12038 3174 147 177 3 0
41740 17308 6320 212 13416 3891 241 306 29 18
44696 17432 6898 233 12115 6163 1043 541 77 194
48272 17432 7711 690 12142 6691 2297 681 147 481
51161 17432 7626 433 14593 6843 2345 798 241 850
0.7 0.3 -3.1 -23.5 5.7 38.8 -1.9
1.7 1.7 -0.4 -1.4 0.1 6.9 21.6 11.9 38.3
1.4 0.0 1.0 6.4 1.9 1.1 8.4 4.0 12.1 15.9
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
7956 1804 44 44 0 0 0 6109 1125 0 1664 3599 762 84 0 0
8749 1827 64 47 17 0 0 6859 1339 0 1475 4648 309 427 0 0
9385 1854 256 47 205 4 0 7276 1710 0 1511 5021 317 427 0 0
9821 2161 441 61 349 30 0 7220 2099 0 1130 5285 263 539 0 2
9695 2174 1135 437 618 80 0 6386 2549 0 936 4274 183 970 0 22
9238 2174 1391 461 777 153 0 5672 2821 0 1048 3322 144 1103 0 55
10105 2174 1670 509 911 250 0 6261 3069 0 950 3870 92 1252 0 97
1.7 0.3 19.2 0.7
0.3 1.6 16.1 25.0 11.7 34.9
0.4 0.0 3.9 1.5 4.0 12.1
1.8 4.3
-1.3 4.1
-0.2 1.9
-1.0 3.4 -8.4 17.6
-4.7 -1.6 -5.4 8.6
0.1 -1.0 -6.7 2.6
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
46.0
43.0
43.3
46.2
49.9
56.5
54.9
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
29.3 14.3 0.0 41.1 40.3 0.8
33.0 20.0 0.0 44.1 38.7 5.4
37.0 29.5 0.0 48.2 38.9 9.3
38.2 31.7 0.0 52.2 41.5 10.7
38.0 35.9 0.0 56.9 39.0 17.9
37.9 36.5 0.0 57.4 36.1 21.3
38.3 34.8 0.0 55.7 34.1 21.7
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
15.9
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
82.7 19.3 47.6 13.9 1.9 0.0
75.1 16.6 46.2 10.9 1.4 0.0
80.1 18.7 47.0 12.3 2.1 0.0
81.4 17.8 47.7 12.2 3.7 0.0
79.4 17.0 47.1 11.0 4.2 0.0
91.7 17.2 57.8 11.3 5.4 0.0
100.7 17.4 64.2 12.1 7.0 0.0
108.6 17.7 69.1 13.0 8.7 0.0
116.8 18.1 74.3 14.1 10.4 0.0
-0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -1.2 0.6
-0.1 -0.9 0.0 -1.1 7.3
2.4 0.2 3.1 0.9 5.3
1.5 0.4 1.5 1.6 4.0
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
34.0 15.2 16.8 2.0
23.4 13.8 8.4 1.2
28.8 19.1 8.8 0.9
36.4 25.2 9.1 2.1
46.3 34.4 9.8 2.1
51.6 39.0 10.3 2.3
54.2 40.7 11.0 2.4
56.3 42.1 11.6 2.6
58.1 43.1 12.3 2.7
-1.6 2.4 -6.3 -7.9
4.8 6.0 1.1 9.0
1.6 1.7 1.2 1.5
0.7 0.6 1.1 1.1
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
3031 123 1825 637 272 164 9
2660 141 1546 595 191 182 5
3263 156 1532 1181 176 219 1
4196 184 1583 2040 159 230 1
4916 174 1545 2782 156 258 1
5564 170 1788 3126 162 316 1
5821 165 1977 3144 158 376 1
5912 159 2070 3095 152 435 1
5844 153 2092 2988 122 488 1
0.7 2.3 -1.7 6.4 -4.3 2.9 -24.1
4.2 1.1 0.1 8.9 -1.1 1.7 5.8
1.7 -0.5 2.5 1.2 0.1 3.8 1.3
0.0 -0.7 0.6 -0.5 -2.6 2.7 0.9
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
149
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Ireland: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
3353 1312 0 1873 0 168 60 108 0 0 0
4010 1606 0 2249 0 155 61 92 1 0 0
2152 959 0 958 0 235 73 141 21 0 0
1616 789 0 461 0 367 54 216 96 0 0
1636 617 0 410 0 609 59 248 286 13 2
1976 611 0 461 0 905 61 331 432 75 6
2737 602 0 363 0 1772 61 506 925 258 23
2888 639 0 421 0 1828 61 528 961 257 22
3045 619 0 441 0 1986 61 560 992 345 29
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
7093 2064 5029 2023 3006 0 0
7631 1823 5725 2269 3456 85 -1
12266 1789 7991 3008 4982 2478 8
13657 1969 8503 3305 5198 3010 176
13998 1718 8680 3156 5524 3374 156
14827 1581 9086 3276 5810 3795 163
14304 1615 8983 3233 5750 2987 172
14813 1635 9141 3267 5874 3462 162
15062 1724 9202 3268 5934 3625 153
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
10246 3416 4789 1873 0 0 168
10861 2775 5598 2334 0 -1 155
14328 2711 7938 3436 0 8 235
15123 2685 8426 3470 0 176 367
15535 2335 8581 3784 0 156 679
16695 2191 8978 4257 0 163 1106
16929 2218 8870 3350 0 172 2319
17583 2274 9022 3883 0 162 2241
17983 2343 9077 4066 0 153 2343
33.3 46.7 18.3 0.0 1.6
25.6 51.5 21.5 0.0 1.4
18.9 55.4 24.0 0.0 1.6
17.8 55.7 22.9 0.0 2.4
15.0 55.2 24.4 0.0 4.4
13.1 53.8 25.5 0.0 6.6
13.1 52.4 19.8 0.0 13.7
12.9 51.3 22.1 0.0 12.7
13.0 50.5 22.6 0.0 13.0
14232 2261
17622 2658
23695 3457
25008 3869
26612 3630
30214 4002
31746 4066
35666 4539
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
3019 1839 339 841 0 0 0
3711 2028 622 1060 0 0 0
4792 1925 1019 1825 24 0 0
4747 1903 775 2040 30 0 0
4181 1738 369 2010 65 0 0
4459 1660 317 2353 129 0 0
3717 1695 288 1479 255 0 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
1943 1746 0 0 197
2439 2272 0 0 167
3488 3317 0 0 171
3479 3343 1 0 135
3336 3156 93 0 87
3540 3276 193 0 71
Energy Branch Consumption
168
185
245
379
338
Non-Energy Uses
624
552
552
308
7368
7910
10681
1745 870 876 2406 1227 1989
1854 881 973 2200 1507 2349
1784 3887 568 1020 0 108 0
933 4813 796 1277 0 92 0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
-4.3 -3.1
-2.7 -4.3
5.3 -0.2
1.1 0.3
-6.5
-8.1
-1.2
2.0
3.4 2.0 2.7
10.0 -2.0 5.8 29.9 52.1 48.3
11.3 0.2 7.4 12.4 35.2 24.9
1.1 0.0 1.0 0.7 2.9 2.4
5.6 -1.4 4.7 4.0 5.2
1.3 -0.4 0.8 0.5 1.0 3.1 33.9
0.2 -0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 -1.2 1.0
0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 2.0 -1.1
3.4 -2.3 5.2 6.3
0.8 -1.5 0.8 1.0
0.9 -0.5 0.3 -1.2
0.6 0.6 0.2 2.0
3.4
33.9 11.2
1.0 13.1
-1.1 0.1
38396 4799
5.2 4.3
1.2 0.5
1.8 1.1
1.9 1.7
4227 1788 255 1922 262 0 0
4397 1892 241 2046 219 0 0
4.7 0.5 11.6 8.1
-1.4 -1.0 -9.7 1.0 10.7
-1.2 -0.2 -2.4 -3.0 14.6
1.7 1.1 -1.8 3.3 -1.5
3715 3233 419 0 63
3701 3267 381 0 52
3754 3268 443 0 43
6.0 6.6
-0.4 -0.5
1.1 0.2 16.2
0.1 0.1 0.6
-1.4
-6.5
-3.2
-3.8
350
347
359
355
3.9
3.3
0.3
0.2
177
208
220
230
242
-1.2
-10.8
2.2
0.9
12340
12505
13542
14129
14530
14976
3.8
1.6
1.2
0.6
2348 1174 1174 2489 1826 4018
2481 1237 1244 2895 1967 4997
2283 1024 1259 3257 1965 5000
2496 1053 1443 3463 2124 5459
2677 1082 1595 3567 2139 5747
2814 1111 1703 3554 2142 6020
2937 1135 1802 3665 2156 6218
3.0 3.0 3.0 0.3 4.1 7.3
-0.3 -1.4 0.7 2.7 0.7 2.2
1.6 0.6 2.4 0.9 0.8 1.4
0.9 0.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.8
699 6919 1201 1744 0 118 0
704 8020 1337 2094 0 184 0
585 7709 1696 2119 128 268 0
519 8141 1821 2404 174 482 1
512 8076 1807 2539 162 1032 2
475 8280 1890 2826 178 881 2
441 8385 1933 3030 249 936 2
-9.0 5.9 7.8 5.5
-1.8 1.1 3.5 2.0
0.9
8.6
-1.3 0.5 0.6 1.8 2.4 14.4 15.3
-1.5 0.4 0.7 1.8 4.4 -1.0 -0.6
9.3
15.7
0.1
2.1
-0.4
3.1 3.9 4.0 1.5 -2.1 2.8 7.4 2.4 0.5
0.2 -1.7 5.6 -1.6 2.3 -1.3 2.0 -6.5 -0.9
-0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -1.4 0.7 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.8 1.5 -0.2
0.5 1.3 0.7 1.6 -0.3 0.8 -0.3 -1.7 0.8 1.1 0.2
14.9 0.0
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
56.0 30.8 10.4 0.2 4.0 7.5 2.9 5.9 2.3 22.8 100.0
32.9 12.6 0.2 3.8 6.0 3.4 6.9 2.3
218
349
528
1064
2272
2194
2303
69.0 41.9 15.2 0.3 4.6 6.0 3.8 12.0 2.9 24.1
70.7 24.6 45.5 14.8 0.6 4.9 6.8 3.4 14.9 2.7 22.6
66.3 19.9 42.8 12.8 0.6 3.9 7.6 3.3 14.6 1.5 22.0
68.1 20.8 44.5 13.2 0.6 4.1 7.6 3.4 15.7 1.7 21.9
65.5 19.2 42.3 11.2 0.6 3.9 7.4 3.3 15.8 1.7 21.5
68.0 20.8 44.3 12.5 0.6 4.2 7.2 3.0 16.8 1.8 21.9
68.9 21.8 45.2 13.1 0.6 4.3 7.2 2.8 17.2 1.9 21.9
123.2
126.4
118.4
121.7
117.0
121.5
123.1
Source: PRIMES
150
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Ireland: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
3.507 61.2 167.4 3.01 69.1
3.598 77.7 139.9 3.03 69.5
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
3.778 123.7 115.8 2.93 84.7
4.109 162.2 93.3 3.01 89.7
4.614 158.8 97.8 2.76 89.5
5.052 190.3 87.7 2.67 88.2
5.404 221.7 76.4 2.50 83.9
5.673 253.4 69.4 2.52 83.7
5.881 285.9 62.9 2.51 83.2
10.2 8.3
13.0 8.0
12.9 8.1
15.1 7.9
19.4 8.8
22.0 8.7
23.4 8.2
0.7 7.3 -3.6 -0.3
2.0 2.5 -1.7 -0.6
1.6 3.4 -2.4 -1.0
0.8 2.6 -1.9 0.1
2.3
4.2
1.9
222.5 167.3 111.3 48.7 95.9
150.3 129.6 119.2 45.2 115.5
100.0 100.0 100.0 51.0 121.2
80.1 93.3 81.9 48.5 116.0
68.8 99.0 80.3 47.4 115.6
64.3 94.5 72.1 44.0 114.2
59.7 85.2 61.9 41.1 109.9
56.0 77.0 53.7 37.9 105.0
52.5 73.0 47.6 34.9 99.4
-7.7 -5.0 -1.1 0.5 2.4
-3.7 -0.1 -2.2 -0.7 -0.5
-1.4 -1.5 -2.6 -1.4 -0.5
-1.3 -1.5 -2.6 -1.6 -1.0
0.73 2.74 2.28 3.10 2.34 2.96
0.71 2.55 2.05 2.71 2.28 2.96
0.64 2.47 1.98 2.42 2.07 2.97
0.59 2.43 1.99 2.34 1.74 2.98
0.46 2.35 1.72 2.33 1.69 2.92
0.41 2.27 1.63 2.20 1.62 2.87
0.33 2.16 1.46 2.08 1.56 2.76
0.33 2.15 1.49 2.02 1.41 2.79
0.32 2.10 1.45 1.97 1.30 2.76
-1.3 -1.0 -1.4 -2.4 -1.2 0.1
-3.3 -0.5 -1.4 -0.4 -2.0 -0.2
-3.1 -0.9 -1.6 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6
-0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -1.8 0.0
2.0 0.0
2.8 0.0
4.2 2.3
7.8 4.5
16.0 9.3
15.0 8.1
15.3 9.2
23695 0 8830 4387 9311 76 846 244 0 0
25008 0 8822 3389 10959 95 631 1112 0 0
26612 0 8336 1728 12317 212 691 3327 2 0
30214 0 7971 1535 14524 439 708 5024 14 0
31746 0 8159 1380 9306 921 707 10751 29 492
35666 0 8602 1242 12069 1013 704 11173 45 819
38396 0 9119 1269 13367 843 705 11532 62 1499
1.2
1.8
1.9
-0.6 -8.9 2.8 10.8 -2.0 29.9
-0.2 -2.2 -2.8 15.8 0.2 12.4 31.4
1.1 -0.8 3.7 -0.9 0.0 0.7 7.8 11.8
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
4399 0 346 230 116 0 0 4053 133 0 1276 1966 783 27 0 0
5718 0 743 225 517 0 0 4976 127 0 1229 2927 772 49 0 0
9589 0 1590 225 1360 5 0 7999 273 0 1230 5903 781 85 0 0
9573 0 2071 229 1828 14 0 7502 390 0 1204 6115 55 129 0 0
11462 0 4203 230 3687 30 255 7259 342 0 1181 5853 26 199 0 0
11311 0 4526 230 3824 46 425 6785 396 0 1179 5317 75 214 0 0
12417 0 5011 230 3938 64 778 7406 632 0 1179 5817 196 214 0 0
8.1
1.8
0.8
16.5 -0.2 27.9
10.2 0.2 10.5 19.7
7.0 7.4
-1.0 2.3
1.8 0.0 0.7 7.8 11.8 0.2 6.3
-0.4 11.6 0.0 12.0
-0.4 -0.1 -28.8 8.9
0.0 -0.1 22.2 0.8
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
58.1
46.6
30.1
34.4
30.4
34.6
34.1
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
40.6 2.6 0.0 4.9 0.0 4.9
42.2 2.6 0.0 7.3 0.0 7.3
46.5 3.3 0.0 15.9 0.0 15.9
47.2 5.4 0.0 20.5 0.0 20.5
45.7 4.5 0.0 40.6 0.0 40.6
46.6 4.8 0.0 38.6 0.0 38.6
48.1 8.2 0.0 38.1 0.0 38.1
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
29.2 3.9 21.3 1.2 2.0 0.9
35.6 5.2 25.3 1.3 3.0 0.9
47.1 6.1 32.4 1.4 6.3 0.9
58.1 6.7 38.4 1.9 10.1 1.0
62.9 7.2 40.8 2.1 11.9 1.0
71.2 7.7 45.9 2.4 14.2 1.1
80.2 8.1 51.4 2.7 16.8 1.2
90.1 8.6 58.2 3.1 19.0 1.2
100.3 9.1 65.0 3.5 21.3 1.3
4.9 4.7 4.3 1.3 12.3 0.5
2.9 1.6 2.3 4.1 6.6 0.6
2.5 1.3 2.3 2.7 3.5 1.6
2.3 1.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.4
5.9 5.1 0.6 0.2
6.4 5.5 0.6 0.3
13.3 12.3 0.5 0.6
18.8 17.9 0.3 0.6
17.4 16.7 0.1 0.6
20.4 19.5 0.2 0.7
22.3 21.4 0.2 0.7
24.8 23.8 0.2 0.8
27.3 26.2 0.3 0.8
8.5 9.2 -1.8 9.3
2.7 3.1 -12.5 0.3
2.5 2.5 4.4 2.4
2.0 2.1 3.0 1.4
1989 31 994 525 48 365 26
2349 41 1146 694 50 390 28
4018 48 1713 1577 42 613 25
4997 51 1897 2150 45 836 18
5000 54 1935 1999 28 966 18
5459 57 1950 2309 30 1093 20
5747 57 2023 2432 25 1188 21
6020 58 2075 2586 27 1251 23
6218 58 2093 2696 25 1323 24
7.3 4.4 5.6 11.6 -1.4 5.3 -0.5
2.2 1.3 1.2 2.4 -4.0 4.6 -3.2
1.4 0.5 0.4 2.0 -1.0 2.1 1.7
0.8 0.1 0.3 1.0 -0.2 1.1 1.2
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
151
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Italy: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
25558 218 4766 14030 0 6544 2719 849 0 5 2971
29435 44 5405 16347 0 7640 3249 1215 1 8 3167
27128 4 4811 13622 0 8691 3812 1716 48 12 3103
28111 60 6520 9886 0 11645 3101 3521 202 30 4791
29186 0 5442 8500 0 15244 3300 5401 528 246 5770
32066 0 5313 7900 0 18853 3308 6607 1484 1412 6042
40392 0 5028 7300 3277 24786 3329 8438 3125 3379 6515
50403 0 4958 6700 12663 26082 3329 7815 3265 3988 7684
60335 0 4851 6000 21666 27818 3353 7831 3390 4416 8828
0.6 -33.8 0.1 -0.3
0.7
3.3
4.1
1.2 -4.6
-0.8 -1.5
2.9 3.4 7.3 73.3 9.2 0.4
5.8 -1.4 12.2 27.0 34.8 6.4
5.0 0.1 4.6 19.5 29.9 1.2
-0.4 -1.9 20.8 1.2 0.1 -0.7 0.8 2.7 3.1
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
132454 13792 90279 84617 5662 25311 2980
135059 12987 90092 82939 7153 28530 3218
153428 13188 88933 90784 -1852 47008 3813
160955 16366 79901 95053 -15153 59840 4227
154712 16178 70365 82952 -12587 63075 3630
156567 16802 68840 81444 -12604 65148 3333
154718 16485 64462 77079 -12617 64711 2914
150377 15997 63430 76043 -12613 63228 2512
146894 16087 61819 74420 -12602 60710 2126
1.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.7
0.1 2.1 -2.3 -0.9
0.0 0.2 -0.9 -0.7
-0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4
6.4 2.5
3.0 -0.5
0.3 -2.2
-0.6 -3.1
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
153512 14621 90274 39001 0 2980 6636
161674 12272 93660 44652 0 3218 7871
172955 12659 89365 57940 0 3813 9177
187312 16477 83691 70651 0 4227 12266
180825 16178 72733 71575 0 3630 16709
185426 16802 70946 73048 0 3333 21297
191845 16485 66225 72011 3277 2914 30934
197420 15997 65028 69928 12663 2512 31292
203751 16087 63191 66710 21666 2126 33971
1.2 -1.4 -0.1 4.0
0.4 2.5 -2.0 2.1
0.6 0.2 -0.9 0.1
2.5 3.3
-0.5 6.2
-2.2 6.4
0.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 20.8 -3.1 0.9
9.5 58.8 25.4 0.0 4.3
7.6 57.9 27.6 0.0 4.9
7.3 51.7 33.5 0.0 5.3
8.8 44.7 37.7 0.0 6.5
8.9 40.2 39.6 0.0 9.2
9.1 38.3 39.4 0.0 11.5
8.6 34.5 37.5 1.7 16.1
8.1 32.9 35.4 6.4 15.9
7.9 31.0 32.7 10.6 16.7
213400 29388
237312 31368
270016 35087
296786 36142
300118 33422
327811 36790
361035 40877
388536 44021
408517 46657
2.4 1.8
1.1 -0.5
1.9 2.0
1.2 1.3
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
40328 7017 21531 8971 39 2770 0
43578 5287 25009 10234 94 2954 0
47763 5836 18954 19665 419 2890 0
54689 10001 9640 28200 2270 4578 0
52875 10924 3486 29992 2933 5540 0
54965 11105 3142 30648 4368 5703 0
53508 10647 322 28831 7783 5925 0
52867 9904 1529 26861 7388 7185 0
49798 9934 1547 22261 7612 8445 0
1.7 -1.8 -1.3 8.2 26.8 0.4
1.0 6.5 -15.6 4.3 21.5 6.7
0.1 -0.3 -21.2 -0.4 10.3 0.7
-0.7 -0.7 17.0 -2.6 -0.2 3.6
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
99583 91895 0 0 7688
99070 92690 0 0 6380
103125 97315 0 0 5811
107857 102905 179 0 4773
95888 90452 1282 0 4154
95260 88635 2028 0 4598
92116 83891 3571 0 4654
91397 82717 3793 0 4887
90190 80932 4337 0 4921
0.4 0.6
-0.7 -0.7
-0.4 -0.8 10.8
-0.2 -0.4 2.0
-2.8
-3.3
1.1
0.6
7028
7345
7289
10110
9415
9429
9452
9368
9084
0.4
2.6
0.0
-0.4
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
10095
13807
11039
11267
10617
10804
11120
11317
11510
0.9
-0.4
0.5
0.3
107380
113897
123465
135679
131856
136699
140749
141760
143500
1.4
0.7
0.7
0.2
36259 25255 11004 26334 11271 33514
36459 24765 11694 26707 12990 37741
39526 24933 14593 28361 14190 41388
41924 26667 15257 32040 17934 43782
39829 24705 15123 32618 16851 42558
40223 24858 15365 34552 17401 44524
41993 25513 16480 35583 17848 45325
43073 25706 17367 35263 17558 45866
44653 26115 18538 35467 17604 45776
0.9 -0.1 2.9 0.7 2.3 2.1
0.1 -0.1 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.3
0.5 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6
0.6 0.2 1.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1
4209 53841 29813 18409 0 1107 0
4012 53287 34652 20442 0 1505 0
3681 56357 37984 23435 0 2007 0
4220 58458 41979 25828 3082 2112 0
3417 53342 41065 25787 3984 4258 2
3724 52313 41520 27582 5435 6119 5
3826 50667 41985 29671 4424 10167 9
3990 50530 39750 31368 6830 9282 8
4007 49470 40535 32502 6930 10049 7
-1.3 0.5 2.5 2.4
-0.7 -0.5 0.8 1.0
6.1
7.8
1.1 -0.5 0.2 1.4 1.1 9.1 13.9
0.5 -0.2 -0.4 0.9 4.6 -0.1 -3.2
6180
7829
10414
15148
23864
23327
24961
5.4
8.6
0.5
532.3
514.8 219.2 413.3 125.9 17.6 62.5 62.8 24.4 120.1 27.8 73.7
510.7 219.3 413.4 127.4 17.2 58.8 64.1 22.2 123.6 28.6 68.7
485.4 202.9 390.9 108.9 16.6 62.2 61.7 20.2 121.3 29.5 65.0
474.9 197.8 379.9 104.9 14.6 59.5 59.9 18.7 122.2 30.4 64.6
462.3 188.5 366.9 94.3 13.6 62.0 58.7 18.1 120.2 31.3 64.2
0.6
-0.3
418.8 130.5 15.9 75.5 54.8 22.0 120.1 28.2 85.2
561.6 254.4 447.6 137.8 19.1 74.9 61.4 27.2 127.3 30.5 83.5
0.9 0.9 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 1.4 2.1 -1.5 0.4
-0.1 -0.4 1.0 -1.9 1.4 1.0 0.0 -0.2 -1.4
-0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -1.4 -0.6 0.0 -0.2 -1.9 0.1 0.6 -1.3
-0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -1.4 -2.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 -0.1 0.6 -0.1
106.7
112.6
103.2
102.4
97.3
95.2
92.7
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
499.0
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
384.7 118.8 16.0 77.6 55.7 19.1 97.5 32.7 81.5
399.5 125.9 16.4 73.8 52.9 21.2 109.2 30.6
Source: PRIMES
152
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Italy: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
56.694 1168.7 131.4 2.51 84.8
56.844 1244.9 129.9 2.47 82.3
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
56.924 1367.8 126.4 2.42 87.3
58.462 1429.5 131.0 2.39 84.4
60.017 1403.5 128.8 2.29 84.1
60.929 1526.1 121.5 2.23 83.0
61.421 1678.7 114.3 2.04 79.3
61.683 1832.9 107.7 1.92 74.9
61.868 1974.0 103.2 1.80 70.9
137.3 10.0
158.1 11.1
158.3 11.3
186.9 12.2
227.2 13.5
255.1 13.9
266.6 13.5
0.0 1.6 -0.4 -0.3
0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.6
0.2 1.8 -1.2 -1.1
0.1 1.6 -1.0 -1.2
1.4
3.7
1.6
105.9 109.6 93.4 33.5 48.4
98.6 106.6 101.2 32.5 44.6
100.0 100.0 100.0 31.3 45.2
110.7 108.8 119.0 32.3 47.5
111.7 110.4 111.8 31.6 46.4
106.0 105.0 105.0 30.9 46.5
100.0 98.4 97.4 30.1 45.6
91.7 90.2 87.6 28.9 44.0
86.2 85.2 81.6 27.6 41.9
-0.6 -0.9 0.7 -0.7 -0.7
1.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.3
-1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -0.5 -0.2
-1.5 -1.4 -1.8 -0.9 -0.8
0.56 2.33 2.14 2.12 1.70 2.91
0.53 2.26 2.03 1.98 1.63 2.89
0.48 2.21 1.91 1.93 1.55 2.90
0.39 2.14 1.79 1.92 1.51 2.91
0.35 2.05 1.57 1.92 1.45 2.82
0.31 1.97 1.46 1.86 1.28 2.78
0.25 1.89 1.48 1.74 1.13 2.68
0.22 1.84 1.38 1.70 1.07 2.66
0.19 1.80 1.39 1.65 1.03 2.62
-1.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 0.0
-3.3 -0.8 -2.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.3
-3.1 -0.8 -0.6 -1.0 -2.5 -0.5
-3.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.9 -0.2
4.9 0.3
5.6 0.9
7.7 3.9
10.8 5.8
16.5 9.9
16.0 10.5
16.9 12.0
270016 0 27603 85749 105453 1604 44328 563 18 4698
296786 0 46304 45284 152542 8901 36061 2344 31 5320
300118 0 48950 16853 169944 11710 38369 6138 1711 6442
327811 0 53132 15046 178221 15467 38468 17251 3594 6632
361035 13681 52022 1531 178332 26616 38710 36337 6916 6889
388536 54017 48397 6157 157732 27510 38707 37960 9701 8354
408517 93261 48498 6789 129714 29063 38992 39420 12961 9819
1.1
1.9
5.9 -15.0 4.9 22.0 -1.4 27.0 57.7 3.2
0.6 -21.3 0.5 8.6 0.1 19.5 15.0 0.7
1.2 21.2 -0.7 16.1 -3.1 0.9 0.1 0.8 6.5 3.6
67747 0 13784 13212 363 209 0 53963 3956 0 8719 23805 20261 588 0 590
81560 0 19213 17095 1635 483 0 62347 5817 0 8816 34917 16623 1322 0 671
96802 0 22856 17095 4507 1254 0 73946 7500 0 9772 50453 10546 2440 0 735
103365 0 30566 17440 10602 2524 0 72798 9669 0 11776 49750 6041 4474 0 757
114175 1579 43886 17440 22262 4184 0 68710 8081 460 10248 47890 3526 6259 0 786
120397 6236 46480 17440 23395 5645 0 67682 11276 460 8861 46749 3423 7695 0 954
128673 10766 49061 17440 24417 7203 0 68847 12783 460 8862 46166 3631 9067 0 1121
3.6
1.7
5.2 2.6 28.6 19.6
6.7 0.2 17.3 12.8
3.2 6.6
-0.7 0.7
1.1 7.8 -6.3 15.3
0.5 -0.5 -10.4 9.9
0.0 4.7 0.0 -1.4 -0.4 0.3 3.8
2.2
0.7
3.6
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
43.3
39.7
34.2
34.9
34.7
35.4
34.8
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
40.5 9.1 0.0 19.0 0.0 19.0
40.6 9.7 0.0 17.7 0.0 17.7
41.3 13.5 0.0 21.4 0.0 21.4
42.0 17.0 0.0 24.8 0.0 24.8
42.7 13.7 1.4 35.8 3.8 32.0
40.4 16.8 1.2 45.4 13.9 31.5
38.7 16.6 1.2 54.7 22.8 31.9
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
1.2 21.2 1.1 0.0 0.9 5.6
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
739.1 84.0 582.7 48.9 18.4 5.1
842.8 87.1 674.6 51.9 24.3 4.9
980.7 93.6 793.5 55.2 33.5 5.0
968.1 101.2 763.0 56.5 42.7 4.7
1001.0 103.7 788.1 55.7 48.6 4.8
1054.6 106.3 830.3 56.9 56.2 4.9
1095.2 109.1 855.5 60.6 64.9 5.1
1143.2 112.0 886.7 65.2 73.9 5.3
1186.3 114.4 914.6 69.8 82.1 5.4
2.9 1.1 3.1 1.2 6.2 -0.4
0.2 1.0 -0.1 0.1 3.8 -0.3
0.9 0.5 0.8 0.9 2.9 0.5
0.8 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.4 0.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
180.7 125.5 19.4 35.8
231.6 174.4 21.7 35.4
237.6 184.7 22.8 30.2
262.6 211.8 22.8 28.0
235.8 184.0 24.6 27.2
256.4 201.9 25.7 28.7
271.2 214.3 26.9 30.0
290.0 230.8 27.8 31.4
309.9 248.6 28.5 32.8
2.8 3.9 1.7 -1.7
-0.1 0.0 0.7 -1.0
1.4 1.5 0.9 1.0
1.3 1.5 0.6 0.9
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
33514 739 21620 8154 739 1872 391
37741 706 23735 9612 821 2418 450
41388 793 25970 10097 835 3491 203
43782 932 26093 11738 908 3863 249
42558 945 25971 10175 931 4289 248
44524 940 26632 11130 919 4646 256
45325 917 26721 11575 899 4949 264
45866 892 26537 12011 884 5268 273
45776 864 26148 12283 844 5356 283
2.1 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.2 6.4 -6.3
0.3 1.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 2.0
0.6 -0.3 0.3 1.3 -0.3 1.4 0.6
0.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.6 -0.6 0.8 0.7
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
153
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Latvia: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
1124 61 1 0 0 1062 387 675 0 0 0
1432 78 0 0 0 1354 253 1101 0 0 0
1409 16 0 0 0 1393 242 1150 0 0 0
1870 3 10 0 0 1858 286 1568 4 0 0
1911 1 0 0 0 1910 248 1648 14 0 0
2264 1 0 0 0 2263 250 1973 38 1 0
2461 1 0 0 0 2460 252 2140 64 4 0
2459 1 0 0 0 2458 256 2105 92 6 0
2323 1 0 0 0 2322 291 1924 99 9 0
2.3 -12.3
3.1 -21.7
2.6 -3.2
-0.6 -0.2
2.8 -4.6 5.5
3.2 0.2 3.7 44.4
2.6 0.2 2.6 16.7 32.5 4.6
-0.6 1.4 -1.1 4.4 7.9 0.9
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
7468 627 3972 1 3971 2561 308
3366 170 2094 2 2092 999 194
2245 63 1116 94 1022 1113 154
2994 77 1676 4 1672 1434 185
3152 52 1944 1 1943 1414 121
3222 43 2169 1 2168 1386 43
3185 463 2143 1 2141 987 20
3118 452 2118 1 2117 906 21
3224 555 2099 1 2097 923 20
-11.3 -20.5 -11.9 55.9 -12.7 -8.0 -6.7
3.5 -2.0 5.7 -35.0 6.6 2.4 -2.3
0.1 24.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 -3.5 -16.4
0.1 1.8 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.7 -0.2
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
7931 711 3487 2380 0 308 1045
4628 273 1893 1010 0 194 1258
3746 135 1175 1092 0 154 1191
4491 82 1382 1358 0 185 1485
4749 53 1631 1414 0 121 1529
5142 44 1825 1386 0 43 1844
5289 464 1786 987 0 20 2032
5212 453 1753 906 0 21 2079
5175 556 1727 923 0 20 1949
-7.2 -15.3 -10.3 -7.5
2.4 -8.8 3.3 2.6
1.1 24.2 0.9 -3.5
-0.2 1.8 -0.3 -0.7
-6.7 1.3
-2.3 2.5
-16.4 2.9
-0.2 -0.4
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
9.0 44.0 30.0 0.0 13.2
5.9 40.9 21.8 0.0 27.2
3.6 31.4 29.2 0.0 31.8
1.8 30.8 30.2 0.0 33.1
1.1 34.3 29.8 0.0 32.2
0.8 35.5 27.0 0.0 35.9
8.8 33.8 18.7 0.0 38.4
8.7 33.6 17.4 0.0 39.9
10.7 33.4 17.8 0.0 37.7
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
6647 1445
3978 1428
4135 1148
4904 1027
5821 1073
7725 1168
8885 1361
9457 1380
10110 1398
-4.6 -2.3
3.5 -0.7
4.3 2.4
1.3 0.3
887 20 177 690 0 0 0
592 65 242 286 0 0 0
513 47 77 388 0 0 0
576 0 13 541 21 0 0
756 0 11 642 102 0 0
960 0 12 688 259 0 0
1204 425 12 374 393 0 0
1263 426 10 339 489 0 0
1271 530 10 315 416 0 0
-5.3 9.2 -8.0 -5.6
4.0
4.8
-17.5 5.2
0.8 -5.3 14.4
0.6 2.2 -1.5 -1.7 0.6
2570 1 0 2542 27
892 1 0 881 9
562 1 0 560 1
476 1 2 473 0
445 1 33 411 0
438 1 53 383 0
384 1 82 301 0
347 1 101 245 0
334 1 117 216 0
-14.1 0.0
-2.3 1.3
-14.0 -28.3
-3.0
-1.4 1.0 9.7 -3.1
-1.4 -0.6 3.6 -3.3
126
127
147
100
128
135
145
143
144
1.5
-1.4
1.3
-0.1
78
46
79
93
56
58
59
56
55
0.2
-3.5
0.7
-0.8
6389
3814
3239
4029
4161
4456
4484
4431
4420
-6.6
2.5
0.8
-0.1
1980 712 1267 1586 1727 1097
692 308 384 1603 806 714
573 224 349 1327 592 747
705 287 419 1514 743 1066
654 259 396 1504 705 1297
654 235 418 1555 745 1502
623 215 408 1573 743 1545
599 200 400 1542 723 1567
600 192 408 1514 720 1586
-11.7 -10.9 -12.1 -1.8 -10.1 -3.8
1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.8 5.7
-0.5 -1.8 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.8
-0.4 -1.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.3
316 2062 672 711 2013 616 0
124 1157 366 381 905 881 0
57 1057 329 382 590 824 0
73 1331 508 490 598 1028 0
46 1554 490 506 543 1021 0
37 1739 467 583 503 1126 1
30 1700 472 644 485 1152 1
18 1673 483 694 490 1072 1
17 1648 501 748 481 1024 0
-15.7 -6.5 -6.9 -6.0 -11.5 3.0
-2.1 3.9 4.1 2.9 -0.8 2.2
-4.2 0.9 -0.4 2.4 -1.1 1.2 31.7
-5.4 -0.3 0.6 1.5 -0.1 -1.2 -11.3
1178
1387
1459
1718
1873
1900
1828
10.0 6.7 2.4 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.7 2.2 0.2 3.1
11.4 3.0 7.6 2.1 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.8 3.1 0.3 3.5
11.7 3.0 8.2 2.2 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.7 3.7 0.3 3.2
12.0 3.0 8.7 2.2 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.7 4.3 0.3 3.0
12.4 3.8 9.3 2.9 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.6 4.3 0.3 2.8
12.2 3.6 9.0 2.7 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 4.3 0.3 2.9
12.5 4.1 9.4 3.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 4.3 0.3 2.9
37.0
42.4
43.3
44.4
46.1
45.2
46.4
Annual % Change
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
26.9 18.8 9.7 0.1 2.5 1.2 2.1 3.2 0.6 7.5 100.0
8.8 3.9 0.1 1.3 0.5 0.9 2.1 0.2
2.2
2.5
-0.2
-9.5
1.6
-9.9 -13.1 5.0 -9.5 -13.3 -10.8 -3.7 -8.5 -8.6
2.2 -0.9 -10.3 1.1 4.6 1.1 5.6 1.4 0.3
0.6 2.5 1.2 2.9 2.2 -2.2 1.5 -1.7 1.4 0.4 -1.2
0.1 0.9 0.0 0.6 -0.8 -1.7 2.4 -1.6 -0.2 -0.1 0.2
Source: PRIMES
154
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Latvia: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
2.668 12.5 632.3 2.37 88.9
2.501 6.8 684.6 1.91 70.5
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
2.382 8.8 426.7 1.78 59.8
2.306 13.0 345.2 1.70 63.0
2.247 12.9 368.0 1.73 62.3
2.200 15.4 333.1 1.69 58.7
2.151 17.4 303.7 1.76 56.4
2.095 19.2 271.7 1.72 55.9
2.033 21.0 246.2 1.81 58.1
1.8 20.8
2.7 21.0
3.1 23.7
4.0 25.8
5.0 28.4
5.6 29.3
5.9 28.0
-1.1 -3.5 -3.9 -2.9
-0.6 3.9 -1.5 -0.2
-0.4 3.0 -1.9 0.2
-0.6 1.9 -2.1 0.3
5.3
4.9
1.7
157.6 84.9 322.8 19.6 27.8
153.2 156.2 180.2 37.3 24.9
100.0 100.0 100.0 26.2 19.0
84.9 75.0 84.3 26.1 19.6
84.4 80.6 80.7 27.0 24.8
76.6 68.0 68.9 27.2 24.8
69.6 58.9 60.3 27.0 23.1
64.8 51.8 52.6 26.7 21.3
60.8 46.0 47.4 26.2 19.8
-4.4 1.7 -11.1 2.9 -3.7
-1.7 -2.1 -2.1 0.3 2.7
-1.9 -3.1 -2.9 0.0 -0.7
-1.3 -2.4 -2.4 -0.3 -1.5
0.28 1.41 1.28 0.76 1.21 2.90
0.23 1.26 1.92 0.33 1.12 2.89
0.18 1.26 1.63 0.22 1.13 2.92
0.16 1.35 1.52 0.28 1.09 2.95
0.15 1.44 1.60 0.30 1.05 2.89
0.14 1.45 1.49 0.31 0.94 2.86
0.18 1.41 1.35 0.34 0.84 2.80
0.16 1.40 1.32 0.37 0.78 2.74
0.18 1.40 1.19 0.44 0.74 2.69
-4.3 -1.2 2.4 -11.7 -0.7 0.1
-1.6 1.4 -0.2 3.3 -0.7 -0.1
1.5 -0.2 -1.7 1.0 -2.2 -0.3
0.1 -0.1 -1.3 2.8 -1.3 -0.4
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
33.7 0.7
32.6 0.7
33.5 3.1
36.9 4.3
40.0 6.6
41.1 8.7
39.7 10.4
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
4135 0 78 107 1128 0 2818 4 0 0
4904 0 0 26 1465 42 3324 47 0 0
5821 0 0 45 2364 371 2881 158 1 0
7725 0 0 46 3445 873 2911 445 5 0
8885 0 1869 47 1834 1453 2931 742 10 0
9457 0 1918 38 1604 1840 2978 1065 15 0
10110 0 2483 41 1502 1534 3380 1146 23 0
3.5
4.3
1.3
-8.2 7.7
0.3 -2.5 14.6 0.2 16.7 26.6
2.9 -1.2 -2.0 0.5 1.4 4.4 9.2
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
2079 0 1499 1497 2 0 0 581 354 0 29 449 91 11 0 0
2171 0 1544 1518 26 0 0 627 386 0 0 548 53 26 0 0
2359 0 1616 1520 94 2 0 743 442 0 0 608 54 81 0 0
2785 0 1782 1522 254 5 0 1003 507 0 0 816 54 134 0 0
3092 0 1940 1525 404 10 0 1152 531 0 229 633 54 236 0 0
3312 0 2094 1535 543 15 0 1218 593 0 235 633 54 296 0 0
3612 0 2289 1672 593 24 0 1323 629 0 304 658 45 316 0 0
1.3
2.7
1.6
0.8 0.2 46.9
1.8 0.0 15.8 17.5
1.7 0.9 3.9 9.0
2.5 2.2
4.5 1.9
1.4 1.7
3.1 -5.1 22.2
0.4 0.1 11.3
2.9 0.4 -1.8 2.9
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
21.8
24.8
27.1
30.8
31.4
31.2
30.6
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
22.0 39.8 0.0 68.3 0.0 68.3
22.9 33.1 0.0 69.6 0.0 69.6
31.6 37.9 0.0 58.6 0.0 58.6
39.1 33.9 0.0 54.8 0.0 54.8
37.2 34.8 0.0 57.8 0.0 57.8
36.8 35.8 0.0 62.4 0.0 62.4
37.6 34.4 0.0 60.2 0.0 60.2
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
0.2 44.4
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
21.1 5.9 6.6 6.1 2.5 0.2
11.4 1.8 7.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
15.4 2.3 11.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
19.7 2.9 14.8 1.2 0.8 0.0
21.5 2.5 16.6 1.2 1.2 0.0
24.6 2.7 18.9 1.3 1.7 0.0
26.0 2.9 19.5 1.5 2.3 0.0
27.3 3.0 19.8 1.5 3.0 0.0
28.6 3.2 20.0 1.6 3.8 0.0
-3.1 -8.7 6.0 -16.7 -18.7
3.4 0.8 3.5 2.0 14.9
1.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 6.1
0.9 1.2 0.3 1.1 5.3
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
24.5 5.9 18.5 0.2
11.6 1.8 9.8 0.0
18.1 4.8 13.3 0.0
28.2 8.4 19.8 0.0
28.8 11.6 17.2 0.0
33.5 13.7 19.8 0.0
36.6 14.4 22.1 0.0
39.3 15.1 24.2 0.0
42.2 15.7 26.5 0.0
-3.0 -2.0 -3.3
4.8 9.3 2.6
2.4 2.2 2.6
1.5 0.9 1.8
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
1097 46 242 512 189 73 35
714 15 378 205 90 26 0
747 17 356 270 76 27 0
1066 21 433 460 94 59 0
1297 18 476 637 81 85 0
1502 19 540 744 90 108 0
1545 19 546 758 88 135 0
1567 20 542 780 60 165 0
1586 21 528 797 42 198 0
-3.8 -9.3 4.0 -6.2 -8.7 -9.6
5.7 0.6 2.9 9.0 0.6 12.2
1.8 0.5 1.4 1.7 0.8 4.8
0.3 0.9 -0.3 0.5 -7.1 3.9
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
155
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Lithuania: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
4740 14 12 0 4394 321 36 285 0 0 0
3695 15 130 0 3050 501 32 469 0 0 0
3188 12 349 0 2172 656 29 627 0 0 0
3702 20 240 0 2666 776 39 734 0 0 3
1007 4 155 0 0 848 36 798 14 0 0
1443 3 130 0 0 1310 37 1243 29 2 0
3334 2 100 0 1572 1660 39 1559 54 8 0
4880 2 85 0 3099 1694 39 1569 72 14 0
5035 2 70 0 3034 1929 40 1780 86 22 0
-3.9 -1.8 40.0
-10.9 -11.0 -7.8
12.7 -4.5 -4.3
4.2 -3.4 -3.5
-6.8 7.4 -2.0 8.2
2.6 2.1 2.4
6.9 0.7 6.9 14.5 36.7 7.8
6.8 1.5 0.4 1.3 4.8 10.4 -2.1
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
11688 758 7281 9560 -2279 4678 -1030
5650 157 3693 3619 74 2029 -230
4343 87 2313 4846 -2533 2065 -115
5120 190 2700 9093 -6393 2492 -255
6557 117 2530 8830 -6299 3561 366
6791 100 2804 9700 -6896 3508 412
6081 90 2895 9961 -7066 3175 -31
5532 75 2985 10232 -7247 2904 -372
5382 64 2999 10251 -7252 2773 -361
-9.4 -19.5 -10.8 -6.6
4.2 3.0 0.9 6.2
-0.8 -2.5 1.4 1.2
-1.2 -3.4 0.4 0.3
-7.9
5.6
-1.1
-1.3
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
16059 797 6899 4678 4394 -1030 320
8672 246 3085 2029 3050 -230 493
7070 98 2203 2064 2172 -115 649
8616 201 2769 2476 2666 -255 758
7408 120 2529 3561 0 366 832
8064 103 2763 3508 0 412 1277
9239 93 2819 3175 1572 -31 1611
10234 77 2892 2904 3099 -372 1634
10236 65 2889 2773 3034 -361 1836
-7.9 -18.9 -10.8 -7.9 -6.8
0.5 2.0 1.4 5.6
2.2 -2.6 1.1 -1.1
1.0 -3.4 0.2 -1.3 6.8
7.3
2.5
6.8
1.3
5.0 43.0 29.1 27.4 2.0
2.8 35.6 23.4 35.2 5.7
1.4 31.2 29.2 30.7 9.2
2.3 32.1 28.7 30.9 8.8
1.6 34.1 48.1 0.0 11.2
1.3 34.3 43.5 0.0 15.8
1.0 30.5 34.4 17.0 17.4
0.8 28.3 28.4 30.3 16.0
0.6 28.2 27.1 29.6 17.9
28400 3959
13518 4152
11118 3075
14412 2782
6416 1759
7102 1775
13682 2105
18625 2352
18513 2229
-9.0 -2.5
-5.3 -5.4
7.9 1.8
3.1 0.6
2610 0 1067 1543 0 0 0
950 0 517 433 0 0 0
912 0 196 716 0 0 0
1221 0 172 1044 5 0 0
1926 0 72 1772 82 0 0
1894 0 64 1653 177 0 0
1713 0 57 1364 292 0 0
1606 0 84 1174 348 0 0
1768 0 117 1256 395 0 0
-10.0
7.8
-1.2
0.3
-15.6 -7.4
-9.5 9.5
-2.4 -2.6 13.6
7.5 -0.8 3.1
11418 9591 0 1819 8
4482 3402 0 1074 6
5762 5105 0 653 4
9984 9458 3 519 4
9516 8935 11 567 3
10418 9800 41 575 2
10721 10047 107 564 2
10985 10310 137 536 1
11006 10317 158 530 1
-6.6 -6.1
5.1 5.8
-9.7 -7.0
-1.4 -4.4
1.2 1.2 25.1 -0.1 -2.8
0.3 0.3 4.0 -0.6 -8.2
Energy Branch Consumption
996
600
670
958
848
913
976
1035
1024
-3.9
2.4
1.4
0.5
Non-Energy Uses
864
544
657
795
1007
1102
1100
1092
1073
-2.7
4.4
0.9
-0.3
9679
4592
3740
4465
4634
5183
5431
5511
5530
-9.1
2.2
1.6
0.2
3327 1670 1657 1843 2512 1996
1017 473 544 1641 894 1040
780 361 419 1342 566 1051
995 442 552 1384 678 1408
973 436 537 1365 678 1618
1106 486 620 1496 731 1849
1119 485 634 1569 750 1994
1092 475 617 1546 724 2149
1069 466 603 1543 714 2204
-13.5 -14.2 -12.8 -3.1 -13.8 -6.2
2.2 1.9 2.5 0.2 1.8 4.4
1.4 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.0 2.1
-0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 1.0
748 4064 1483 1033 2078 272 0
225 1670 510 546 1193 448 0
87 1352 363 531 828 579 0
190 1610 503 682 905 574 0
116 1792 405 699 1083 538 0
100 2018 448 797 1059 761 1
91 2085 431 877 1030 914 2
74 2187 416 926 1145 760 2
62 2209 417 939 1242 657 3
-19.4 -10.4 -13.1 -6.4 -8.8 7.9
2.9 2.9 1.1 2.8 2.7 -0.7
-2.4 1.5 0.6 2.3 -0.5 5.4 32.0
-3.7 0.6 -0.3 0.7 1.9 -3.3 3.8
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
48.8 32.4 12.0 1.6 6.1 2.3 4.5 5.8 3.5 12.9 100.0
13.5 5.6 0.8 1.7 0.8 1.5 3.0 1.5
642
727
767
1100
1403
1247
1319
18.9 10.2 3.9 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 3.1 1.6 7.1
22.5 10.1 12.5 3.9 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.6 4.1 1.7 8.3
23.7 11.1 13.6 5.3 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 4.7 1.9 8.3
22.0 9.5 13.8 5.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 5.3 2.1 6.1
21.2 8.9 13.1 4.3 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 5.5 2.2 5.8
20.6 8.5 12.7 4.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 5.9 2.3 5.6
20.4 8.3 12.4 4.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 6.0 2.4 5.6
38.8
46.1
48.6
45.0
43.4
42.1
41.8
1.8
6.2
-0.6
-9.0
2.3
-10.9 -10.6 -3.5 -15.9 -13.6 -19.8 -6.2 -7.7 -5.8
2.8 3.1 3.1 -2.0 1.1 -0.2 4.4 1.9 1.5
-1.1 -2.2 -0.3 -2.1 -1.7 -0.3 1.1 -0.7 1.6 1.6 -3.4
-0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -6.4 -1.3 -0.7 -1.4 0.8 0.9 -0.4
Source: PRIMES
156
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Lithuania: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
3.694 19.4 829.6 2.02 72.4
3.643 11.4 761.0 1.55 64.1
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
3.512 14.3 493.0 1.45 60.6
3.425 20.9 412.8 1.45 58.5
3.337 21.5 345.3 1.83 86.7
3.275 26.3 307.1 1.71 82.5
3.220 30.3 304.4 1.42 64.6
3.158 33.5 305.0 1.24 53.1
3.083 36.3 282.1 1.21 51.7
2.3 16.1
3.4 16.2
3.9 18.0
5.0 19.1
6.6 21.6
7.8 23.3
8.6 23.7
-0.5 -3.0 -5.1 -3.3
-0.5 4.1 -3.5 2.4
-0.4 3.5 -1.3 -2.5
-0.4 1.8 -0.8 -1.6
5.3
5.4
2.7
258.4 103.1 452.0 30.8 46.9
180.8 158.3 203.3 26.6 37.1
100.0 100.0 100.0 20.7 25.8
78.3 67.4 87.1 18.0 24.2
68.7 68.6 86.4 18.1 24.9
63.7 61.5 76.0 18.6 24.9
56.9 56.8 66.7 20.4 24.2
52.2 51.1 57.0 22.8 23.5
49.2 47.2 50.9 23.6 22.8
-9.1 -0.3 -14.0 -3.9 -5.8
-3.7 -3.7 -1.5 -1.3 -0.3
-1.9 -1.9 -2.6 1.2 -0.3
-1.4 -1.8 -2.7 1.5 -0.6
0.21 1.94 1.83 1.27 1.80 2.93
0.17 1.54 1.69 0.48 1.73 2.91
0.16 1.39 1.37 0.40 0.88 2.93
0.14 1.49 1.35 0.46 0.85 2.93
0.23 1.44 0.90 0.44 0.72 2.91
0.21 1.43 0.84 0.44 0.66 2.87
0.14 1.38 0.76 0.43 0.61 2.77
0.11 1.40 0.71 0.42 0.56 2.73
0.11 1.40 0.70 0.41 0.55 2.70
-2.8 -3.3 -2.8 -10.8 -6.9 0.0
3.6 0.4 -4.1 0.9 -2.0 -0.1
-4.5 -0.4 -1.7 -0.3 -1.7 -0.5
-2.9 0.1 -0.9 -0.5 -1.0 -0.3
15.1 0.0
14.8 0.3
15.4 0.9
19.9 2.8
24.2 6.9
21.2 8.3
22.4 9.4
11118 8417 0 405 1957 0 339 0 0 0
14412 10335 0 476 3136 12 451 2 0 0
6416 0 0 207 5393 233 419 162 2 0
7102 0 0 189 5565 578 425 336 9 0
13682 6563 0 168 4770 1063 449 630 39 0
18625 13127 0 167 2917 1056 457 832 68 0
18513 12855 0 242 2864 971 466 1003 112 0
-5.3
7.9
3.1 7.0
-6.5 10.7
-2.1 -1.2 16.4 0.7 14.5 36.8
3.7 -5.0 -0.9 0.4 4.8 11.1
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
4586 2291 100 100 0 0 0 2196 873 0 0 1661 528 7 0 0
3692 1200 115 114 1 0 0 2377 824 0 0 2057 303 17 0 0
2756 0 299 122 175 2 0 2457 873 0 0 2124 315 18 0 0
3034 0 497 123 365 9 0 2537 960 0 0 2158 308 71 0 0
4275 758 848 148 662 38 0 2670 1023 0 0 2179 314 177 0 0
4930 1515 1099 155 876 67 0 2316 920 0 0 1905 203 208 0 0
5056 1515 1325 159 1055 111 0 2216 977 0 0 1910 77 228 0 0
-5.0
4.5
11.6 2.0
11.0 1.9 14.2 34.2
1.7 7.2 4.6 0.7 4.8 11.3
1.1 0.0
0.8 1.6
-1.8 -0.5
2.5 -5.0 9.6
0.3 0.0 26.0
-1.3 -13.1 2.6
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
23.5
40.2
24.9
25.5
34.9
41.1
39.8
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
22.3 18.3 0.0 78.8 75.7 3.0
25.5 17.8 0.0 74.9 71.7 3.2
26.0 62.6 0.0 12.7 0.0 12.7
28.7 62.9 0.0 19.0 0.0 19.0
30.1 35.6 0.0 63.9 48.0 15.9
22.2 21.9 0.0 83.4 70.5 13.0
19.8 21.4 0.0 83.2 69.4 13.8
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
2.1
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
24.1 7.9 11.3 3.6 1.0 0.2
21.7 4.2 16.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
30.0 2.8 26.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
40.1 3.7 35.1 0.4 0.8 0.1
44.9 3.6 39.8 0.4 1.0 0.1
49.0 3.9 43.1 0.4 1.4 0.1
49.6 4.1 43.1 0.5 1.9 0.1
49.9 4.2 42.5 0.5 2.5 0.1
50.1 4.2 42.0 0.5 3.3 0.1
2.2 -10.0 8.8 -16.3 -10.3 -12.8
4.1 2.7 4.2 -4.0 12.4 0.2
1.0 1.4 0.8 1.7 6.0 0.8
0.1 0.3 -0.3 1.3 5.8 0.6
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
26.8 7.3 19.3 0.2
12.4 5.2 7.2 0.0
16.7 7.8 8.9 0.0
28.4 15.9 12.5 0.0
32.3 19.0 13.4 0.0
37.7 22.4 15.3 0.0
40.7 23.9 16.8 0.0
42.9 24.9 18.0 0.0
44.8 25.6 19.2 0.0
-4.6 0.6 -7.4
6.8 9.3 4.1
2.3 2.3 2.3
1.0 0.7 1.4
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
1996 46 539 1139 133 135 5
1040 25 504 383 87 41 1
1051 16 572 358 76 27 3
1408 21 648 608 79 46 5
1618 21 725 723 84 60 5
1849 23 802 848 94 77 5
1994 24 882 887 99 96 5
2149 25 990 908 103 118 6
2204 26 1004 916 108 145 6
-6.2 -9.8 0.6 -10.9 -5.5 -14.9 -5.0
4.4 2.5 2.4 7.3 1.0 8.5 5.3
2.1 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 4.8 0.7
1.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.9 4.1 0.4
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
157
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Luxembourg: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
47 0 0 0 0 47 6 41 0 0 0
47 0 0 0 0 47 7 39 0 0 0
57 0 0 0 0 57 10 44 2 0 0
74 0 0 0 0 74 8 59 5 2 0
99 0 0 0 0 99 8 79 6 6 0
169 0 0 0 0 169 7 111 15 35 0
249 0 0 0 0 249 8 139 27 75 0
286 0 0 0 0 286 8 174 30 74 0
305 0 0 0 0 305 8 185 34 78 0
1.9
5.7
9.7
2.0
1.9 5.8 0.7
5.7 -2.9 6.0 10.8
9.7 0.2 5.9 15.2 29.0 16.9
2.0 0.2 2.9 2.3 0.4 -8.8
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
3526 1134 1626 0 1626 430 336
3264 514 1763 0 1763 557 430
3630 125 2342 0 2342 670 492
4622 82 3081 0 3081 1179 280
4695 37 3067 0 3067 1248 318
5047 31 3242 0 3242 1356 327
5013 26 3099 0 3099 1386 300
4992 18 3003 0 3003 1519 274
4893 13 2846 0 2846 1558 284
0.3 -19.8 3.7
2.6 -11.5 2.7
0.7 -3.4 0.1
-0.2 -6.5 -0.8
3.7 4.6 3.9
2.7 6.4 -4.3
0.1 1.1 -0.6
-0.8 1.2 -0.6
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
3561 1134 1614 430 0 336 47
3342 514 1794 557 0 430 47
3637 125 2292 670 0 492 57
4714 82 3100 1179 0 280 74
4794 37 3067 1248 0 318 125
5216 31 3242 1356 0 327 259
5262 26 3099 1386 0 300 451
5278 18 3003 1519 0 274 464
5198 13 2846 1558 0 284 497
0.2 -19.8 3.6 4.6
2.8 -11.5 3.0 6.4
0.9 -3.4 0.1 1.1
-0.1 -6.5 -0.8 1.2
3.9 1.9
-4.3 8.3
-0.6 13.7
-0.6 1.0
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
31.9 45.3 12.1 0.0 1.3
15.4 53.7 16.7 0.0 1.4
3.4 63.0 18.4 0.0 1.6
1.7 65.8 25.0 0.0 1.6
0.8 64.0 26.0 0.0 2.6
0.6 62.2 26.0 0.0 5.0
0.5 58.9 26.3 0.0 8.6
0.3 56.9 28.8 0.0 8.8
0.3 54.8 30.0 0.0 9.6
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
627 410
498 497
433 439
3344 448
3475 545
4358 641
5207 699
6317 782
6535 815
-3.6 0.7
23.2 2.2
4.1 2.5
2.3 1.6
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
190 0 3 162 25 0 0
132 0 2 106 24 0 0
75 0 0 47 28 0 0
568 0 0 525 43 0 0
574 0 0 537 37 0 0
704 0 1 647 56 0 0
802 0 1 708 93 0 0
962 0 1 870 91 0 0
988 0 1 894 93 0 0
-8.8
22.5
3.4
2.1
-11.6 1.0
27.5 2.8
2.8 9.7
2.5 2.4 -0.1
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
378 0 0 0 378
144 0 0 0 144
0 0 0 0 0
1 0 1 0 0
55 0 55 0 0
132 0 132 0 0
232 0 232 0 0
245 0 245 0 0
261 0 261 0 0
15.5
1.2
15.5
1.2
Energy Branch Consumption
31
30
26
30
37
44
48
53
55
-1.8
3.8
2.6
1.3
Non-Energy Uses
20
23
14
20
22
27
29
31
33
-3.9
5.0
2.7
1.3
3335
3171
3558
4439
4492
4845
4860
4804
4713
0.7
2.4
0.8
-0.3
1729 1525 204 521 74 1010
1197 901 296 565 99 1311
958 506 453 598 118 1884
938 461 477 651 130 2721
899 431 468 676 137 2780
997 468 528 697 147 3005
1029 479 550 700 151 2980
1052 482 570 683 156 2914
1082 486 596 688 160 2784
-5.7 -10.5 8.3 1.4 4.7 6.4
-0.6 -1.6 0.3 1.2 1.5 4.0
1.4 1.1 1.6 0.3 1.0 0.7
0.5 0.1 0.8 -0.2 0.6 -0.7
756 1587 622 355 0 15 0
369 1758 585 430 14 15 0
125 2276 623 491 27 16 0
82 3080 678 529 55 16 0
37 3044 711 570 59 70 0
31 3215 709 646 68 175 0
26 3069 678 688 84 315 1
18 2971 648 750 90 327 1
13 2812 663 776 95 353 1
-16.5 3.7 0.0 3.3
-11.5 3.0 1.3 1.5 8.2 16.0
-3.4 0.1 -0.5 1.9 3.5 16.2 8.4
-6.5 -0.9 -0.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2
Annual % Change
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
13.1 10.7 0.7 0.0 5.7 1.3 0.0 3.0 1.6 0.9 100.0
8.7 0.4 0.0 3.1 1.3 0.0 3.9 1.0
32
41
111
241
433
449
481
10.5 8.9 0.1 0.0 1.7 1.4 0.1 5.6 0.7 0.9
14.3 4.0 12.4 1.2 0.0 1.5 1.4 0.1 8.2 0.8 1.1
14.1 3.8 12.3 1.3 0.0 1.3 1.4 0.1 8.2 0.7 1.1
14.9 4.2 13.0 1.5 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.1 8.7 0.8 1.1
14.6 4.4 12.6 1.7 0.0 1.4 1.3 0.1 8.3 0.9 1.1
14.5 4.7 12.6 2.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 0.0 8.0 0.8 1.1
14.1 4.6 12.2 2.1 0.0 1.3 1.1 0.0 7.6 0.8 1.1
80.2
109.1
107.5
113.7
110.9
110.6
107.3
0.4
13.4
14.6
1.1
-2.2
3.0
-1.8 -17.0
3.3 27.5
0.3 1.5 0.3 2.8
-0.3 0.6 -0.3 2.4
-11.5 1.1 17.3 6.5 -7.6 0.4
-2.4 0.2 -3.1 3.9 0.2 2.0
0.5 -1.3 -0.6 0.1 1.7 -0.5
-0.3 -1.1 -1.7 -0.9 -0.3 -0.2
Source: PRIMES
158
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Luxembourg: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
0.379 13.6 262.3 2.99 99.0
0.406 18.8 177.4 2.62 97.7
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
0.434 25.4 143.4 2.44 99.8
0.461 30.2 155.9 2.64 98.0
0.494 32.6 147.2 2.56 97.9
0.523 40.5 128.6 2.50 96.8
0.551 47.3 111.2 2.40 95.3
0.579 53.4 98.8 2.39 94.6
0.607 59.4 87.5 2.35 94.1
2.7 10.8
3.7 12.3
3.9 12.0
4.7 11.6
5.8 12.4
6.4 12.0
6.6 11.0
1.3 6.5 -5.9 -2.0
1.3 2.5 0.3 0.5
1.1 3.8 -2.8 -0.6
1.0 2.3 -2.4 -0.2
3.5
4.2
1.1
259.7 125.3 103.2 119.7 92.1
159.1 116.2 111.6 125.6 84.1
100.0 100.0 100.0 136.5 102.9
93.6 100.4 91.5 150.7 156.5
86.4 98.1 88.9 143.3 154.7
78.9 80.5 76.7 131.9 151.1
71.6 68.9 67.1 120.8 146.0
66.6 59.5 61.1 107.9 139.0
63.3 53.7 56.2 97.4 127.6
-9.1 -2.2 -0.3 1.3 1.1
-1.5 -0.2 -1.2 0.5 4.2
-1.9 -3.5 -2.8 -1.7 -0.6
-1.2 -2.5 -1.8 -2.1 -1.3
1.13 2.98 3.28 2.45 0.21 2.96
0.59 2.63 2.58 2.39 0.35 2.96
0.15 2.46 1.74 2.37 0.65 2.97
0.31 2.52 1.63 2.21 0.48 3.00
0.30 2.45 1.45 2.14 0.41 2.95
0.29 2.37 1.41 1.99 0.39 2.88
0.27 2.26 1.33 1.81 0.35 2.78
0.28 2.20 1.25 1.71 0.30 2.76
0.27 2.14 1.23 1.65 0.28 2.73
-18.4 -1.9 -6.1 -0.3 12.0 0.1
7.4 -0.1 -1.8 -1.0 -4.5 -0.1
-1.2 -0.8 -0.9 -1.6 -1.6 -0.6
0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -2.3 -0.2
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
0.9 0.0
0.9 0.1
2.5 2.3
5.1 5.2
9.1 9.3
9.6 10.1
10.4 11.2
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
433 0 0 0 231 55 120 27 0 0
3344 0 0 0 3050 130 93 53 18 0
3475 0 0 0 3147 123 90 75 40 0
4358 0 0 3 3885 155 84 173 59 0
5207 0 0 3 4360 362 92 310 79 0
6317 0 0 4 5425 352 92 353 91 0
6535 0 0 4 5579 360 94 391 107 0
23.2
4.1
2.3
29.9 8.3 -2.9 10.8
3.3 11.4 0.2 15.2 7.2
2.5 2.5 -0.1 0.2 2.3 3.0
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
165 0 54 39 14 1 0 111 37 0 0 95 0 16 0 0
609 0 101 40 35 26 0 509 54 0 0 483 0 25 0 0
607 0 131 40 50 41 0 477 96 0 0 452 0 25 0 0
841 0 234 40 134 61 0 607 115 0 0 580 1 25 0 0
1090 0 331 40 210 81 0 759 154 0 0 696 1 62 0 0
1290 0 375 40 242 93 0 915 189 0 0 851 1 62 0 0
1355 0 418 40 270 108 0 937 207 0 0 872 1 63 0 0
13.9
6.0
2.2
9.3 0.2 13.5 45.1
9.7 0.0 15.5 7.0
2.4 0.1 2.6 2.9
15.7 10.0
4.8 4.9
2.1 3.0
16.8
4.4
4.5
9.7
2.3 2.5 0.1
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
28.0
62.2
63.7
57.5
53.1
54.5
53.7
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
32.7 52.7 0.0 46.7 0.0 46.7
48.1 12.6 0.0 8.8 0.0 8.8
49.0 16.1 0.0 9.4 0.0 9.4
49.4 13.0 0.0 10.8 0.0 10.8
50.7 16.9 0.0 16.2 0.0 16.2
51.7 15.7 0.0 14.1 0.0 14.1
51.8 16.8 0.0 14.6 0.0 14.6
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
5.2 0.5 4.0 0.2 0.5 0.0
6.2 0.5 4.8 0.3 0.5 0.0
7.3 0.6 5.7 0.3 0.6 0.0
8.1 0.8 6.5 0.3 0.6 0.0
8.6 0.9 6.7 0.3 0.7 0.0
9.4 0.9 7.4 0.4 0.8 0.0
9.7 1.0 7.4 0.4 1.0 0.0
10.1 1.0 7.7 0.4 1.1 0.0
10.6 1.1 7.9 0.4 1.2 0.0
3.4 2.6 3.6 4.8 2.2
1.6 3.3 1.6 -0.5 0.7
1.3 1.1 1.0 1.8 3.6
0.9 1.0 0.7 1.0 2.5
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
4.2 3.2 0.6 0.4
6.4 5.5 0.5 0.3
8.6 7.6 0.6 0.4
9.5 8.8 0.4 0.3
10.0 9.3 0.4 0.3
11.6 10.8 0.5 0.4
12.4 11.5 0.5 0.4
13.1 12.2 0.5 0.4
13.7 12.8 0.5 0.4
7.5 9.0 0.3 0.4
1.5 2.0 -4.1 -1.0
2.1 2.2 1.8 0.9
1.0 1.1 0.4 0.9
1010 10 483 364 13 131 9
1311 11 574 520 9 189 8
1884 13 662 866 15 320 7
2721 17 779 1479 9 431 6
2780 18 769 1540 10 438 6
3005 18 750 1743 11 477 6
2980 18 667 1791 11 488 6
2914 18 597 1803 10 479 6
2784 18 566 1733 10 450 7
6.4 2.3 3.2 9.1 2.0 9.3 -2.4
4.0 3.2 1.5 5.9 -4.5 3.2 -1.5
0.7 0.2 -1.4 1.5 0.8 1.1 0.7
-0.7 0.0 -1.6 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 0.8
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
159
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Malta: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 4 0
28 0 0 0 0 28 0 3 3 23 0
46 0 0 0 0 46 0 4 8 33 0
58 0 0 0 0 58 0 5 16 36 0
71 0 0 0 0 71 0 7 25 39 0
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
612 0 612 0 612 0 0
891 0 891 0 891 0 0
822 0 822 0 822 0 0
958 0 958 0 958 0 0
911 0 911 0 911 0 0
796 0 649 0 649 142 0
770 0 591 0 591 148 22
760 0 526 0 526 203 24
746 0 488 0 488 222 26
3.0
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
582 0 582 0 0 0 0
809 0 809 0 0 0 0
773 0 773 0 0 0 0
958 0 958 0 0 0 0
916 0 911 0 0 0 5
824 0 649 142 0 0 33
816 0 591 148 0 22 55
817 0 526 203 0 24 65
817 0 488 222 0 26 80
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 99.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
0.0 78.8 17.3 0.0 4.0
0.0 72.4 18.1 0.0 6.8
0.0 64.3 24.8 0.0 7.9
0.0 59.8 27.2 0.0 9.8
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
1100 190
1632 373
1917 350
2240 396
2165 382
2223 361
2055 334
2134 306
2149 271
5.7 6.3
322 0 322 0 0 0 0
463 0 463 0 0 0 0
495 0 495 0 0 0 0
580 0 580 0 0 0 0
539 0 539 0 0 0 0
409 0 264 140 4 0 0
354 0 208 140 6 0 0
328 0 145 176 7 0 0
302 0 118 176 8 0 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
3 0 3 0 0
7 0 7 0 0
5 0 5 0 0
7 0 7 0 0
Energy Branch Consumption
8
19
10
9
8
7
6
6
5
Non-Energy Uses
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
333
451
412
526
529
571
597
622
639
0 0 0 55 56 222
42 0 42 73 32 305
43 0 43 76 55 238
46 0 46 89 63 329
46 0 46 92 66 324
50 0 50 101 74 346
51 0 51 110 81 354
54 0 54 115 89 363
56 0 56 121 94 368
0 255 0 78 0 0 0
0 343 0 108 0 0 0
0 277 0 135 0 0 0
0 378 0 148 0 0 0
0 371 0 153 0 4 0
0 385 2 160 0 23 0
0 383 7 170 0 36 0
0 381 27 181 0 33 0
0 370 46 188 0 35 0
Annual % Change
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
26.1
4.4
26.1
4.4
50.7 22.5 18.7
4.8 11.7 1.7 -0.3
1.0
-1.7
-0.3
3.0
1.0
-4.2
-1.9
3.0
1.0
-4.2 132.7
-1.9 4.2 1.7
2.9
1.7
-1.1
0.0
2.9
1.7
-4.2 132.7
-1.9 4.2
27.4
1.7 3.8
1.2 0.9
-0.5 -1.3
0.4 -2.1
4.4
0.9
-4.1
-1.6
4.4
0.9
-9.1
-5.5 2.3 2.9
32.3
0.3
34.4 2.8
0.2 3.0
2.5
-2.3
-2.1
-2.4
2.2
2.5
1.2
0.7
0.7
1.0
0.9
3.2 -0.2 0.7
0.7 2.0 1.9 3.1
1.0 1.7 2.1 0.9
0.9 1.0 1.4 0.4
0.9
3.0
5.6
1.3
0.3 76.6 1.0 2.8 24.0 9.6
-0.3 20.1 1.0 3.0 -0.3 -0.4
3.1
1.6
3.0 4.4
-1.8
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
2.0 1.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.2 100.0
2.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.0
0
0
5
30
51
60
74
2.7 2.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.3
3.3 2.1 3.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.3
3.1 2.0 2.8 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.3
2.6 1.5 2.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.3
2.4 1.4 2.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.2
2.3 1.3 2.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.2
2.2 1.3 2.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.2
135.1
168.0
158.3
131.5
120.6
117.3
113.4
26.5
3.8
1.7 0.9
-2.7 -3.6 -2.7 -5.4
-0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -2.3
0.7
2.0 2.4 3.2
-1.6 0.5 0.7
-0.1 3.5 0.3
3.4
0.6
-2.5
0.5
Source: PRIMES
160
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Malta: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
0.352 2.9 200.3 3.06 100.0
0.369 3.7 218.0 3.08 104.5
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
0.380 4.5 170.3 3.10 100.8
0.403 4.8 199.7 3.12 100.0
0.414 5.2 176.9 3.10 99.5
0.421 5.9 139.9 2.83 96.6
0.427 6.8 120.3 2.64 94.4
0.431 7.6 107.8 2.54 92.9
0.432 8.3 98.4 2.45 91.3
0.4 8.9
0.6 12.6
0.6 12.2
0.7 12.5
0.9 13.9
1.1 14.7
1.2 14.5
0.8 4.6 -1.6 0.1
0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0
0.3 2.7 -3.8 -1.6
0.1 2.0 -2.0 -0.7
4.6
4.0
2.5
-1.4 -4.5 -1.2 -3.0
2.3 0.6 0.1 2.1 2.1
-1.6 -1.1 -0.6 -1.5 -0.7
-1.1 -1.1 -0.6 -1.4 -0.5
-1.3 -1.3
-0.3 0.5
-4.9 -0.7
-2.7 -0.2
-4.9
0.0 0.5 0.1
-3.3 -1.5 -0.2
-1.0 2.0 -0.1
0.0 115.3 158.1 47.2 211.4
122.2 114.5 70.7 56.2 232.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 41.7 156.0
133.5 108.5 103.0 57.4 212.1
125.2 106.3 100.8 51.3 192.7
118.7 101.1 98.6 47.8 183.1
106.6 95.1 94.4 44.1 178.8
100.4 89.2 92.2 41.3 175.1
95.7 85.0 88.9 38.4 169.7
0.93 2.26
0.91 2.24 0.00 1.47 0.00 2.96
0.82 1.99 0.00 1.01 0.64 2.98
0.83 2.14 0.00 1.10 0.69 3.00
0.80 2.10 0.00 1.00 0.67 3.00
0.53 2.02 0.00 0.84 0.55 2.98
0.48 1.95 0.00 0.72 0.57 2.94
0.41 1.94 0.00 0.64 0.65 2.95
0.36 1.90 0.00 0.65 0.70 2.92
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
1.0 0.1
6.0 1.2
10.0 3.3
11.5 2.4
14.2 3.7
1917 0 0 1917 0 0 0 0 0 0
2240 0 0 2240 0 0 0 0 0 0
2165 0 0 2158 0 0 0 0 8 0
2223 0 0 1256 893 18 0 32 25 0
2055 0 0 984 893 28 0 94 57 0
2134 0 0 683 1136 33 0 188 93 0
2149 0 0 550 1136 37 0 286 139 0
1.2
-0.5
0.4
1.2
-7.6
-5.6 2.4 3.0
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
484 0 0 0 0 0 0 484 0 0 0 0 484 0 0 0
544 0 0 0 0 0 0 544 0 0 0 0 544 0 0 0
550 0 5 0 0 5 0 545 0 0 0 0 545 0 0 0
836 0 31 0 15 16 0 805 0 0 0 124 678 3 0 0
650 0 75 0 39 36 0 575 0 0 0 124 447 4 0 0
742 0 133 0 73 60 0 609 0 0 0 158 446 5 0 0
806 0 196 0 106 90 0 609 0 0 0 158 446 5 0 0
1.3
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
42.5
44.9
43.0
29.2
34.8
31.8
29.6
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
33.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
34.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4
45.6 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 3.4
46.2 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.0 8.7
48.5 0.0 0.0 14.7 0.0 14.7
49.1 0.0 0.0 21.5 0.0 21.5
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
1.66 0.00 2.97
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
0.0
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
22.1
11.7 9.4
1.7
2.2
31.1
10.1
21.9
10.5 9.5
1.2
0.5
0.6
1.2
-2.0
2.5 0.0 2.8
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
3.9 0.4 1.5 0.0 2.0 0.0
4.4 0.4 1.8 0.0 2.2 0.0
4.8 0.5 1.9 0.0 2.5 0.0
4.8 0.5 2.1 0.0 2.3 0.0
5.4 0.5 2.2 0.0 2.7 0.0
6.2 0.5 2.2 0.0 3.4 0.0
6.8 0.5 2.2 0.0 4.1 0.0
7.4 0.6 2.2 0.0 4.7 0.0
8.1 0.6 2.2 0.0 5.4 0.0
1.9 1.2 1.9
1.2 1.2 1.7
2.4 0.5 0.0
1.8 0.2 -0.1
2.1
0.8
4.3
2.8
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
4.1 4.1
0.0 0.0
1.9 1.9
1.3 1.3
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
222 9 105 35 0 72 0
305 9 164 58 0 74 0
238 7 105 39 0 86 0
329 10 175 53 0 90 0
324 11 164 48 0 101 0
346 11 160 51 0 124 0
354 10 150 54 0 140 0
363 10 142 56 0 155 0
368 10 135 58 0 166 0
0.7 -1.9 0.0 1.0
3.1 3.7 4.6 2.1
0.9 -0.1 -0.9 1.1
0.4 -0.7 -1.0 0.8
1.8
1.6
3.3
1.7
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
161
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Netherlands: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
60563 0 4114 54613 881 956 7 942 5 2 0
66301 0 3625 60456 1036 1184 8 1144 27 5 0
57430 0 2472 51904 1013 2040 12 1945 71 12 0
61899 0 2346 56265 1031 2257 8 2050 178 22 0
60215 2 1240 54900 1017 3056 8 2352 616 80 0
58132 2 530 51980 1023 4597 9 2917 1448 187 37
56544 2 0 49180 1024 6338 9 3360 2488 378 105
47990 1 0 40100 1186 6704 9 3261 2699 525 210
41466 1 0 32670 1186 7609 9 3758 2869 658 315
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
18273 9574 31704 48979 -17275 -23799 792
17142 8921 33609 60332 -26723 -26370 980
35442 8222 42777 62222 -19446 -17191 1626
38390 8313 48868 62643 -13775 -20941 1573
34240 7280 46273 60525 -14252 -21497 1389
37486 8989 47317 61639 -14322 -20224 325
37035 9208 46439 60669 -14230 -19908 -89
44436 9417 45924 60115 -14191 -12172 -176
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
67955 9206 25308 30810 881 792 959
74528 9098 28142 34085 1036 980 1187
77042 8035 29610 34711 1013 1626 2048
82479 8190 33527 35324 1031 1573 2834
78365 7281 31423 33403 1017 1389 3851
79370 8991 31599 31756 1023 325 5676
77458 9210 30317 29272 1024 -89 7724
13.5 37.2 45.3 1.3 1.4
12.2 37.8 45.7 1.4 1.6
10.4 38.4 45.1 1.3 2.7
9.9 40.6 42.8 1.3 3.4
9.3 40.1 42.6 1.3 4.9
11.3 39.8 40.0 1.3 7.2
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
71824 5556
81054 6855
89599 7754
100235 8521
104191 8795
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
14646 5698 727 7651 570 0 0
17053 5900 917 9466 770 0 0
18277 5114 671 11071 1421 0 0
19614 4958 691 11913 2052 0 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
73390 69876 0 0 3514
84833 81133 0 11 3689
86509 83485 0 153 2870
91301 87803 0 436 3062
Energy Branch Consumption
5462
6320
5600
6665
5809
5783
5707
Non-Energy Uses
9775
9892
10307
13031
12946
12826
12342
42876
47727
50174
51639
50682
50951
49628
12542 9531 3010 9938 10012 10385
12675 8686 3989 11152 11463 12436
13753 9823 3930 10333 12229 13858
14929 10639 4291 10101 11495 15114
14519 10052 4467 10171 11305 14687
14500 9993 4507 10301 11244 14906
1651 12851 21244 6322 439 370 0
1415 14721 22515 7143 1568 364 0
1295 16512 21008 8421 2558 380 0
1515 17406 20335 8989 2981 413 0
1151 16693 19363 9153 3653 668 1
1212 16703 18536 9824 3645 1029 2
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
-0.5
0.5
-0.6 0.5
-3.1 -3.4
-5.0 -0.5 1.4 7.9 5.3 7.5 30.9 18.5
-6.7 0.6 0.0 4.1 -3.6 1.9 24.1 21.3
-1.1 0.1 7.6 0.0 3.6 15.0 16.8 134.4
-4.0 1.5 1.8 0.0 1.1 1.4 5.7 11.6
49766 9579 44190 58289 -14099 -5429 -196
6.8 -1.5 3.0 2.4
-0.3 -1.2 0.8 -0.3
0.8 2.4 0.0 0.0
3.0 0.4 -0.5 -0.4
7.5
-1.6
76073 9418 29570 27928 1186 -176 8148
74463 9581 27422 27241 1186 -196 9230
1.3 -1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 7.5 7.9
0.2 -1.0 0.6 -0.4 0.0 -1.6 6.5
-0.1 2.4 -0.4 -1.3 0.1
-0.4 0.4 -1.0 -0.7 1.5
7.2
1.8
11.9 39.1 37.8 1.3 10.0
12.4 38.9 36.7 1.6 10.7
12.9 36.8 36.6 1.6 12.4
126189 10570
136417 12357
140592 12871
143553 13133
2.2 3.4
1.5 1.3
2.7 3.5
0.5 0.6
19036 4760 587 11344 2345 0 0
21145 6541 590 11041 2936 37 0
21164 6797 582 10382 3298 105 0
21542 7004 814 10111 3403 210 0
22264 7171 759 10175 3844 315 0
2.2 -1.1 -0.8 3.8 9.6
0.4 -0.7 -1.3 0.2 5.1
1.1 3.6 -0.1 -0.9 3.5
0.5 0.5 2.7 -0.2 1.5 11.6
84022 80993 256 494 2279
84627 81520 498 494 2115
82215 78842 845 494 2035
81128 77828 790 455 2055
78921 75616 857 388 2059
1.7 1.8
-0.3 -0.3
-2.0
12.4 -2.3
-0.2 -0.3 12.7 0.0 -1.1
-0.4 -0.4 0.1 -2.4 0.1
5616
5445
0.2
0.4
-0.2
-0.5
12168
12156
0.5
2.3
-0.5
-0.2
48338
46689
1.6
0.1
-0.2
-0.6
13957 9579 4379 10045 10858 14768
13622 9306 4316 9617 10238 14861
13238 9004 4234 9282 9830 14339
0.9 0.3 2.7 0.4 2.0 2.9
0.5 0.2 1.3 -0.2 -0.8 0.6
-0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.1
-0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.8 -1.0 -0.3
1230 16045 16771 10138 3843 1598 3
1198 15356 15755 10367 4028 1631 2
1171 13939 14536 10585 4410 2045 2
-2.4 2.5 -0.1 2.9 19.3 0.3
-1.2 0.1 -0.8 0.8 3.6 5.8
0.7 -0.4 -1.4 1.0 0.5 9.1 11.1
-0.5 -1.4 -1.4 0.4 1.4 2.5 -2.2
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
214.2
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
152.1 43.4 13.8 26.6 19.2 18.9 30.2 9.4 52.6
167.6 49.2 16.0 24.8 20.6 20.7 36.3 9.1
814
1169
3235
5114
7059
7412
8338
219.2 166.2 49.1 13.5 24.6 18.9 19.5 40.6 8.2 44.8
217.8 107.3 172.1 51.2 15.0 25.4 17.8 18.1 44.5 8.6 37.0
197.4 91.4 159.6 48.4 11.3 22.1 17.9 17.4 42.5 7.9 29.9
201.1 98.0 163.4 54.7 10.5 21.8 17.4 16.4 42.5 8.1 29.6
188.9 92.1 152.1 50.0 9.9 20.0 16.2 14.9 41.0 8.1 28.7
184.5 91.6 147.5 50.2 9.6 18.4 14.9 12.9 41.5 8.2 28.7
177.3 88.8 139.9 50.2 9.0 15.7 14.0 11.3 39.7 8.3 29.1
102.3
101.7
92.2
93.9
88.2
86.1
82.8
14.8
8.1
1.7
0.2
-1.0
0.9 1.2 -0.3 -0.8 -0.2 0.3 3.0 -1.4 -1.6
-0.4 -0.1 -1.7 -1.1 -0.5 -1.2 0.5 -0.4 -4.0
-0.4 0.1 -0.5 0.3 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -0.4 0.2 -0.4
-0.6 -0.4 -0.8 0.0 -1.0 -2.4 -1.5 -2.7 -0.3 0.3 0.1
Source: PRIMES
162
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Netherlands: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
14.893 347.5 195.6 2.24 23.2
15.424 394.3 189.0 2.25 20.0
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
15.864 480.8 160.2 2.16 39.2
16.306 513.4 160.7 2.09 38.7
16.503 539.5 145.3 2.04 36.3
16.717 589.1 134.7 2.06 39.2
16.896 637.9 121.4 1.96 39.6
17.069 682.4 111.5 1.94 48.1
17.208 726.3 102.5 1.88 54.5
45.7 9.5
53.0 10.3
53.8 10.0
62.4 10.6
74.5 11.7
81.9 12.0
83.6 11.5
0.6 3.3 -2.0 -0.4
0.4 1.2 -1.0 -0.6
0.2 1.7 -1.8 -0.4
0.2 1.3 -1.7 -0.4
1.7
3.3
1.2
105.2 133.0 117.5 41.4 34.9
107.3 133.8 115.7 49.0 37.8
100.0 100.0 100.0 49.3 38.1
108.1 93.4 86.8 52.8 36.6
104.1 91.5 80.6 50.8 35.8
97.9 83.4 72.3 47.4 35.6
90.1 74.3 63.9 44.6 34.0
84.3 66.5 56.0 42.3 32.4
78.9 60.1 50.2 37.9 30.7
-0.5 -2.8 -1.6 1.8 0.9
0.4 -0.9 -2.1 0.3 -0.6
-1.4 -2.1 -2.3 -1.3 -0.5
-1.3 -2.1 -2.4 -1.6 -1.0
0.56 2.21 2.12 1.93 1.89 2.91
0.48 2.15 1.96 1.85 1.81 2.92
0.39 2.07 1.79 1.83 1.60 2.93
0.35 2.05 1.70 1.76 1.58 2.95
0.30 1.97 1.52 1.76 1.54 2.89
0.29 1.93 1.51 1.69 1.46 2.85
0.25 1.86 1.43 1.61 1.37 2.78
0.24 1.81 1.35 1.55 1.26 2.79
0.23 1.73 1.19 1.50 1.15 2.77
-3.4 -0.7 -1.7 -0.5 -1.7 0.1
-2.8 -0.5 -1.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1
-1.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -0.4
-0.7 -0.7 -1.9 -0.7 -1.8 0.0
1.6 0.1
2.2 0.1
6.3 2.6
9.9 5.0
14.0 8.7
15.2 8.3
17.6 9.2
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
89599 3925 23513 2380 55301 3500 142 829 8 0
100235 3996 22687 2698 62203 6463 88 2067 34 0
104191 3942 21513 2910 59549 8931 99 7160 87 0
126189 3967 32499 2952 58838 10840 99 16833 117 43
136417 3971 33750 2864 54729 11745 99 28925 149 186
140592 5096 35434 2099 53820 12084 99 31382 170 407
143553 5096 36107 1685 52688 13618 99 33363 240 657
1.5 0.0 -0.9 2.0 0.7 9.8 -3.6 24.1 27.0
2.7 0.1 4.6 -0.2 -0.8 2.8 0.0 15.0 5.5
0.5 2.5 0.7 -5.2 -0.4 1.5 0.0 1.4 4.9 13.5
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
20559 504 494 39 442 13 0 19561 6017 0 4200 13732 776 853 0 0
23096 504 1331 37 1243 51 0 21261 5905 0 4200 14827 762 1473 0 0
26283 504 3212 37 3078 96 0 22566 8227 0 4186 15935 995 1451 0 0
31527 504 6138 37 5975 126 0 24884 8305 0 8133 13936 787 2023 0 5
34322 504 9925 37 9716 151 21 23892 8336 1005 8534 12432 786 2126 0 14
34926 589 10782 37 10524 168 53 23555 8570 1005 8534 11917 777 2300 0 28
35623 589 11565 37 11192 241 95 23470 8470 1005 8534 11709 770 2414 0 42
2.5 0.0 20.6 -0.5 21.4 22.2
2.7 0.0 11.9 0.0 12.2 4.6
1.4 3.2
0.6 0.1
0.0 1.5 2.5 5.4
7.4 -2.5 -2.3 3.9
0.4 1.6 1.5 0.0 1.4 4.8 16.4 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 1.3
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
47.7
47.5
43.4
43.7
43.0
43.5
43.6
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
39.9 39.1 0.0 9.4 4.4 5.0
41.2 30.8 0.0 12.6 4.0 8.6
42.0 42.8 0.0 19.4 3.8 15.6
42.8 35.4 0.0 25.3 3.1 22.1
41.9 32.6 4.8 33.0 2.9 30.1
41.4 31.1 5.3 35.0 3.6 31.4
40.4 31.1 5.8 37.0 3.5 33.4
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
11.6
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
172.2 13.0 138.6 12.3 7.0 1.2
172.3 12.0 133.0 17.7 8.5 1.0
184.4 11.3 143.3 16.1 13.0 0.7
194.8 11.8 151.5 16.7 14.2 0.7
197.9 12.4 151.7 18.1 15.1 0.7
213.6 13.2 161.9 19.7 18.0 0.8
225.6 13.7 168.1 21.2 21.7 0.8
239.6 14.0 177.0 22.7 25.1 0.8
254.0 14.2 186.8 24.0 28.0 0.8
0.7 -1.4 0.3 2.7 6.3 -5.0
0.7 0.9 0.6 1.2 1.5 0.2
1.3 1.1 1.0 1.6 3.7 0.6
1.2 0.4 1.1 1.2 2.6 0.5
93.2 54.5 3.1 35.7
105.7 67.1 3.1 35.5
125.4 79.6 4.5 41.3
132.3 84.2 5.9 42.2
129.2 80.0 7.4 41.8
134.2 83.5 7.7 43.0
138.3 85.6 7.9 44.7
145.7 90.7 8.1 46.8
153.4 96.3 8.2 48.9
3.0 3.9 3.9 1.5
0.3 0.1 5.0 0.1
0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7
1.0 1.2 0.3 0.9
10385 166 5237 2666 147 1608 560
12436 151 5553 3278 163 2589 702
13858 140 5491 4037 176 3343 672
15114 144 6371 4552 172 3670 206
14687 150 6117 4319 197 3699 204
14906 155 5860 4464 203 4017 209
14768 153 5640 4400 186 4175 215
14861 148 5523 4430 173 4365 223
14339 143 5258 4415 167 4126 231
2.9 -1.7 0.5 4.2 1.8 7.6 1.8
0.6 0.7 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.0 -11.2
0.1 0.2 -0.8 0.2 -0.6 1.2 0.5
-0.3 -0.7 -0.7 0.0 -1.1 -0.1 0.7
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
163
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Poland: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
99385 94459 179 2378 0 2369 139 2230 0 0 0
99403 91104 367 3169 0 4763 162 4600 0 0 0
80300 71298 1433 3313 0 4256 181 4072 0 0 3
79260 68876 1498 3884 0 5002 189 4792 12 0 9
69136 59068 750 3865 0 5453 195 5142 87 1 28
67673 55686 700 3440 0 7847 205 7373 145 31 93
71398 52620 692 3100 2817 12170 221 11231 248 93 377
68318 49038 650 2800 2817 13013 231 11981 312 166 323
65446 45860 600 2692 3947 12347 246 11116 378 270 338
-2.1 -2.8 23.1 3.4
-1.5 -1.9 -6.3 1.6
0.3 -1.1 -0.8 -2.2
6.0 2.7 6.2
2.5 0.7 2.4 70.0 25.1
8.4 1.3 8.1 11.1 51.9 29.7
-0.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 3.4 0.1 1.1 -0.1 4.3 11.3 -1.1
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
2306 -18913 14536 13196 1340 6773 -90
-11 -21202 15622 14112 1510 5810 -241
10262 -16309 20512 18949 1563 6607 -548
16911 -12755 22155 18362 3793 8531 -962
32419 -5332 27282 22649 4633 11156 -576
40185 -1269 30588 25237 5352 11523 -442
38926 -2283 30270 25004 5267 10969 -449
43005 2306 30737 25342 5396 10921 -498
44486 4902 30067 24983 5084 10498 -528
16.1
12.2
1.8
1.3
3.5 3.7 1.5 -0.2
2.9 1.8 11.5 5.4
1.0 1.0 1.3 -0.2
-0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.4
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
100083 75405 13461 8938 0 -90 2369
100165 70500 16149 8995 0 -241 4763
90907 56358 20889 9960 0 -548 4249
93870 54918 22734 12235 0 -962 4946
101136 53736 27613 15021 0 -576 5342
107389 54417 30819 14963 0 -442 7633
109851 50337 30489 14069 2817 -449 12587
110848 51344 30912 13721 2817 -498 12552
109462 50763 30197 13189 3947 -528 11894
-1.0 -2.9 4.5 1.1
1.1 -0.5 2.8 4.2
0.8 -0.7 1.0 -0.7
0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 3.4
6.0
2.3
8.9
-0.6
75.3 13.4 8.9 0.0 2.4
70.4 16.1 9.0 0.0 4.8
62.0 23.0 11.0 0.0 4.7
58.5 24.2 13.0 0.0 5.3
53.1 27.3 14.9 0.0 5.3
50.7 28.7 13.9 0.0 7.1
45.8 27.8 12.8 2.6 11.5
46.3 27.9 12.4 2.5 11.3
46.4 27.6 12.0 3.6 10.9
134591 24377
137017 30428
143148 27978
155331 28523
162543 30121
173429 31462
189148 34744
203965 36795
219681 38524
0.6 1.4
1.3 0.7
1.5 1.4
1.5 1.0
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
43419 41138 1235 673 372 0 0
36847 35842 405 488 114 0 0
35960 34793 228 783 157 0 0
38149 35942 179 1483 546 0 0
41036 37718 200 1448 1670 0 0
42093 38849 166 1353 1726 0 0
41417 35894 84 1369 3952 118 0
43174 37163 90 1376 4421 125 0
42121 36837 77 1392 3683 133 0
-1.9 -1.7 -15.6 1.5 -8.3
1.3 0.8 -1.3 6.3 26.7
0.1 -0.5 -8.3 -0.6 9.0
0.2 0.3 -0.9 0.2 -0.7 1.2
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
37964 13269 0 9949 14746
33093 15062 0 5985 12045
34029 20074 0 4320 9635
32016 19789 47 3640 8541
34260 23563 363 3567 6766
36447 26113 718 3364 6252
36012 25854 1399 3321 5438
36012 26141 1556 3390 4926
35745 25723 1819 3631 4572
-1.1 4.2
0.1 1.6
-8.0 -4.2
-1.9 -3.5
0.5 0.9 14.4 -0.7 -2.2
-0.1 -0.1 2.7 0.9 -1.7
Energy Branch Consumption
6808
7653
7263
7151
8586
8937
8904
8898
8650
0.6
1.7
0.4
-0.3
Non-Energy Uses
4218
3720
4319
4471
4707
5007
5072
5218
5415
0.2
0.9
0.8
0.7
59652
63525
55323
57854
64840
70719
72568
73271
73261
-0.8
1.6
1.1
0.1
25258 16252 9006 18126 8906 7362
22722 15428 7294 23284 9244 8275
18886 13373 5513 17519 9714 9204
16462 11186 5276 18377 10932 12083
17489 11388 6101 18765 11847 16739
18737 11860 6877 19418 12938 19627
18824 11680 7144 19783 13452 20508
18829 11460 7370 19383 13670 21390
18711 11444 7267 19373 13668 21510
-2.9 -1.9 -4.8 -0.3 0.9 2.3
-0.8 -1.6 1.0 0.7 2.0 6.2
0.7 0.3 1.6 0.5 1.3 2.1
-0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.5
17066 9143 7987 8262 15563 1631 0
23299 11618 7735 7703 8763 4408 0
13728 14917 7447 8454 6886 3889 0
11350 17874 8400 9028 7056 4146 0
10318 22015 11465 9908 7929 3204 1
10045 24993 11633 10855 7661 5529 4
9414 24879 10647 11933 7690 7994 10
9298 25377 10173 13008 8002 7405 8
9244 24947 9106 14217 8336 7407 4
-2.2 5.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.8 9.1
-2.8 4.0 4.4 1.6 1.4 -1.9
-0.9 1.2 -0.7 1.9 -0.3 9.6 22.7
-0.2 0.0 -1.6 1.8 0.8 -0.8 -8.0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
440.8
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
332.3 209.3 5.8 44.0 33.1 19.4 20.6 17.7 90.8
330.9 169.9 12.7 59.9 44.4 20.8 23.2 18.0
3766
4290
4558
6842
11322
11278
10791
374.8 288.6 158.8 11.3 46.3 27.9 18.4 25.8 17.6 68.6
375.2 218.9 291.2 162.1 10.6 33.5 30.2 20.5 34.4 16.8 67.2
396.5 221.1 312.2 167.9 10.3 33.9 31.2 21.8 47.1 18.7 65.6
403.8 224.4 323.9 172.1 9.9 34.9 30.7 21.9 54.5 20.9 58.9
374.6 207.2 300.8 155.2 9.0 33.1 27.8 20.6 55.0 22.6 51.2
380.7 213.8 305.6 160.5 8.8 33.9 25.4 19.8 57.1 23.8 51.4
375.1 214.7 300.2 159.7 8.3 35.2 22.7 17.8 56.5 24.9 50.0
85.0
85.1
89.9
91.6
85.0
86.4
85.1
1.9
9.5
-0.5
-1.6
0.6
-1.4 -2.7 6.9 0.5 -1.7 -0.5 2.3 -0.1 -2.8
0.8 0.6 -1.0 -3.1 1.1 1.7 6.2 0.6 -0.5
-0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -1.3 -0.2 -1.2 -0.6 1.6 2.0 -2.4
0.0 0.4 0.0 0.3 -0.9 0.6 -2.0 -1.4 0.3 0.9 -0.2
Source: PRIMES
164
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Poland: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
38.038 144.7 691.6 3.32 2.3
38.581 161.3 620.9 3.30 0.0
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
38.654 210.0 432.9 3.17 11.3
38.174 244.4 384.1 3.10 18.0
38.092 298.1 339.3 3.09 31.9
38.068 353.9 303.4 3.02 37.3
37.960 406.1 270.5 2.74 35.3
37.612 464.5 238.6 2.76 38.6
36.975 515.8 212.2 2.74 40.5
31.5 15.0
39.8 16.3
47.6 16.0
59.1 16.7
76.5 18.8
88.1 19.0
94.1 18.2
0.2 3.8 -4.6 -0.4
-0.1 3.6 -2.4 -0.3
0.0 3.1 -2.2 -1.2
-0.3 2.4 -2.4 0.0
4.2
4.8
2.1
200.8 182.3 130.3 22.8 25.3
177.4 177.4 119.8 27.4 27.2
100.0 100.0 100.0 24.9 29.2
67.2 91.0 98.0 26.7 32.1
56.3 79.4 88.9 27.6 34.1
49.8 69.6 79.5 27.1 34.0
44.8 60.8 71.0 26.8 33.2
40.8 51.9 61.9 26.4 32.7
38.8 46.1 54.6 25.9 31.6
-6.7 -5.8 -2.6 0.9 1.4
-5.6 -2.3 -1.2 1.1 1.6
-2.3 -2.6 -2.2 -0.3 -0.3
-1.4 -2.7 -2.6 -0.3 -0.5
0.62 1.96 1.74 1.83 2.18 2.80
0.67 2.33 2.64 1.90 2.25 2.80
0.67 2.14 2.45 1.59 1.89 2.81
0.65 2.05 2.03 1.64 1.87 2.85
0.58 2.07 1.94 1.66 1.84 2.81
0.57 2.01 1.86 1.58 1.69 2.78
0.49 1.88 1.76 1.40 1.53 2.68
0.48 1.86 1.80 1.31 1.45 2.67
0.45 1.80 1.88 1.17 1.31 2.63
0.8 0.9 3.5 -1.3 -1.4 0.0
-1.3 -0.4 -2.3 0.4 -0.3 0.0
-1.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.7 -1.8 -0.5
-0.8 -0.4 0.7 -1.8 -1.6 -0.2
6.5 0.1
7.1 0.5
6.8 2.7
9.3 4.6
15.0 8.5
14.8 9.1
14.1 10.5
143148 0 137226 911 2450 451 2106 5 0 0
155331 0 145736 759 4990 1510 2201 135 0 0
162543 0 148794 1046 4883 4547 2263 1008 1 0
173429 0 158283 702 5141 5224 2379 1692 8 0
189148 11760 152110 250 6213 13208 2568 2884 18 137
203965 11760 164348 171 6265 14922 2682 3633 39 145
219681 16687 174890 211 7079 13335 2856 4393 76 154
1.3
1.5
0.8 1.4 7.1 26.0 0.7 70.0
0.2 -13.3 2.4 11.3 1.3 11.1 31.0
1.5 3.6 1.4 -1.7 1.3 0.1 1.1 4.3 15.1 1.2
29565 0 813 809 4 0 0 28752 9348 0 27462 847 429 14 0 0
30959 0 1028 907 121 0 0 29931 9606 0 28152 1291 430 59 0 0
32481 0 1687 1014 672 1 0 30794 9781 0 28873 1215 430 276 0 0
33527 0 2137 1098 1031 8 0 31390 9330 0 28439 1562 440 950 0 0
35301 1515 2920 1187 1714 18 0 30866 10320 610 26499 1758 384 2209 0 16
36857 1515 3442 1203 2200 39 0 31900 10876 610 27090 1754 271 2769 0 17
41254 2150 3978 1203 2701 74 0 35126 11145 610 29615 1774 210 3509 0 18
0.9
0.8
7.6 2.3 66.9
5.6 1.6 9.8 29.8
0.7 0.5
0.0 0.5
0.5 3.7 0.0 34.6
-0.9 3.8 -1.1 23.1
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
50.3
52.4
52.2
54.2
55.8
57.7
55.7
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
33.7 17.6 0.0 1.8 0.0 1.8
34.5 18.3 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.5
33.4 17.8 0.0 4.8 0.0 4.8
34.6 22.6 0.0 5.4 0.0 5.4
35.7 27.3 3.5 16.2 6.2 9.9
37.0 30.6 3.2 16.3 5.8 10.5
40.0 31.6 2.9 17.1 7.6 9.5
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
1.6 3.6 3.1 0.1 4.6 15.2 1.3 0.8 0.0 1.1 0.1 -5.9 4.7 1.2
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
186.5 46.3 83.4 55.4 0.9 0.4
182.3 34.0 115.2 31.6 1.2 0.3
217.1 31.7 153.6 28.8 2.8 0.2
257.8 29.3 201.2 22.3 4.8 0.2
323.6 28.3 262.6 24.8 7.6 0.2
377.6 29.5 309.7 27.4 10.8 0.2
409.4 31.4 335.5 29.5 12.8 0.2
440.8 33.7 358.9 31.7 16.3 0.2
462.7 35.3 373.4 33.3 20.5 0.3
1.5 -3.7 6.3 -6.3 12.4 -6.3
4.1 -1.1 5.5 -1.5 10.7 -0.6
2.4 1.0 2.5 1.7 5.3 1.3
1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 4.8 0.7
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
122.9 40.3 81.6 1.0
120.3 51.2 68.2 0.9
130.2 75.0 54.0 1.2
162.1 111.8 50.0 0.3
228.4 172.5 55.5 0.4
276.3 210.2 65.7 0.4
287.6 216.3 70.8 0.4
298.4 221.9 76.0 0.5
302.1 221.7 79.9 0.5
0.6 6.4 -4.0 1.3
5.8 8.7 0.3 -11.4
2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5
0.5 0.2 1.2 1.4
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
7362 421 3435 2111 1099 196 99
8275 307 4241 2659 669 371 29
9204 276 4687 3326 540 369 6
12083 254 6248 4792 468 319 2
16739 244 8146 7343 507 497 2
19627 248 9255 8873 584 665 2
20508 253 9897 9017 572 767 3
21390 257 10486 9237 559 848 3
21510 261 10625 9118 472 1031 3
2.3 -4.1 3.2 4.6 -6.9 6.5 -24.3
6.2 -1.3 5.7 8.2 -0.6 3.0 -9.9
2.1 0.4 2.0 2.1 1.2 4.4 1.6
0.5 0.3 0.7 0.1 -1.9 3.0 0.8
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
165
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Portugal: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
3396 115 0 0 0 3281 787 2479 0 11 3
3321 0 0 0 0 3321 717 2550 1 15 37
3826 0 0 0 0 3826 974 2770 14 18 49
3583 0 0 0 0 3583 407 2936 152 23 66
4594 0 0 0 0 4594 892 2892 589 66 154
5362 0 0 0 0 5362 937 3291 753 225 156
6198 0 0 0 0 6198 954 3563 902 609 170
6567 0 0 0 0 6567 971 3718 1004 703 170
6986 0 0 0 0 6986 988 3901 1102 824 171
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
15122 2789 12329 11319 1011 0 3
18012 3797 14137 13603 534 0 79
21881 3913 15848 12231 3618 2039 80
24414 3223 16711 13637 3073 3893 587
20964 2320 13753 12417 1336 4206 542
20506 1981 13675 12393 1282 3861 564
19013 1736 13274 12219 1055 2821 626
18915 1674 13028 12116 913 2873 709
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
17508 2580 11644 0 0 3 3281
20469 3493 13576 0 0 79 3321
25078 3803 15335 2034 0 80 3826
27035 3347 15768 3751 0 587 3583
24975 2320 13171 4206 0 542 4736
25262 1981 13069 3861 0 564 5787
24593 1736 12656 2821 0 626 6754
14.7 66.5 0.0 0.0 18.7
17.1 66.3 0.0 0.0 16.2
15.2 61.1 8.1 0.0 15.3
12.4 58.3 13.9 0.0 13.3
9.3 52.7 16.8 0.0 19.0
7.8 51.7 15.3 0.0 22.9
28350 4441
33148 4776
43364 5363
46180 5983
46279 5686
4304 2027 2105 19 149 3 0
5493 2919 2371 18 148 37 0
6508 3198 1671 1234 356 49 0
8007 3319 1885 2309 430 65 0
11443 11111 0 0 332
14111 13635 0 16 460
12911 12462 0 0 449
655
960
2113
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
1.2
1.8
3.0
1.2
1.5 2.1 1.1 66.9 5.4 31.4
1.8 -0.9 0.4 44.9 13.6 12.1
3.0 0.7 2.1 4.3 24.9 1.0
1.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.1 0.0
18723 952 12857 12040 817 3550 692
3.8 3.4 2.5 0.8 13.6
-0.4 -5.1 -1.4 0.2 -9.5 7.5 21.1
-1.0 -2.9 -0.4 -0.2 -2.3 -3.9 1.4
-0.2 -5.8 -0.3 -0.1 -2.5 2.3 1.0
24850 1674 12396 2873 0 709 7197
25059 952 12206 3550 0 692 7658
3.7 4.0 2.8
0.0 -4.8 -1.5 7.5
-0.2 -2.9 -0.4 -3.9
0.2 -5.8 -0.4 2.3
38.1 1.5
21.1 2.2
1.4 3.6
1.0 1.3
7.1 51.5 11.5 0.0 27.5
6.7 49.9 11.6 0.0 29.0
3.8 48.7 14.2 0.0 30.6
49780 6235
52391 6735
55678 7651
59729 7868
4.3 1.9
0.7 0.6
1.2 1.7
1.3 1.6
6131 2314 613 2457 596 151 0
6045 1975 631 2197 1091 151 0
5550 1732 506 1362 1790 161 0
5730 1670 280 1601 2018 161 0
5752 948 153 2234 2256 161 0
4.2 4.7 -2.3 51.6 9.1 31.4
-0.6 -3.2 -9.5 7.1 5.3 11.8
-1.0 -2.9 -1.9 -5.7 11.6 0.7
0.4 -5.8 -11.3 5.1 2.3 0.0
13785 13785 0 0 0
12854 12700 154 0 0
12942 12655 287 0 0
12896 12463 434 0 0
12870 12339 531 0 0
12839 12255 584 0 0
1.2 1.2
0.0 0.2
0.0 -0.2 10.9
0.0 -0.2 3.0
1025
1101
896
873
845
858
808
4.6
-1.3
-0.6
-0.4
1891
2364
2429
2181
2228
2265
2292
2393
1.1
-0.8
0.4
0.6
11813
13789
17694
18723
18119
18520
18714
18906
19150
4.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
4728 3073 1656 2290 1055 3740
4974 3350 1625 2569 1377 4869
6244 4092 2151 2804 2105 6542
5689 3767 1922 3206 2773 7055
4997 3001 1995 3192 2623 7307
4840 2857 1982 3363 2730 7587
4801 2777 2025 3469 2722 7721
4917 2770 2148 3423 2737 7828
5185 2858 2328 3400 2788 7776
2.8 2.9 2.7 2.0 7.1 5.8
-2.2 -3.1 -0.7 1.3 2.2 1.1
-0.4 -0.8 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.6
0.8 0.3 1.4 -0.2 0.2 0.1
617 6700 103 2024 28 2341 0
546 8215 97 2477 36 2417 0
465 10509 853 3299 134 2433 0
16 10561 1307 3983 328 2529 0
6 9592 1689 3975 366 2490 1
5 9544 1530 4250 443 2746 1
4 9265 1341 4494 1027 2580 2
4 9158 1237 4783 1146 2576 2
4 9028 1277 5097 1174 2569 1
-2.8 4.6 23.6 5.0 16.8 0.4
-35.4 -0.9 7.1 1.9 10.5 0.2
-2.8 -0.3 -2.3 1.2 10.9 0.4 12.5
-1.1 -0.3 -0.5 1.3 1.3 0.0 -2.4
3559
3886
4524
5386
6399
6807
7288
2.4
3.5
1.3
83.4
74.2 31.4 51.6 16.8 2.2 5.5 2.2 3.6 21.3 6.6 16.0
70.5 29.1 49.0 14.9 2.0 4.7 2.2 3.4 21.8 6.7 14.8
64.8 25.8 44.3 11.6 1.9 4.1 2.0 2.9 21.7 6.7 13.9
64.2 25.7 43.3 11.2 1.9 3.9 1.9 2.7 21.8 6.8 14.0
62.3 24.5 41.2 9.4 1.7 4.2 1.9 2.4 21.4 7.2 14.0
3.5
-1.2
58.7 20.9 2.5 10.7 2.0 3.2 19.4 6.6 18.1
89.3 42.1 61.8 24.5 2.6 7.1 2.3 4.3 21.0 7.8 19.7
4.2 3.5 5.3 2.6 2.0 5.4 5.8 4.1 1.4
-1.3 -2.1 -1.4 -6.4 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.1 -1.2
-1.3 -2.0 -1.5 -3.6 -1.5 -2.9 -0.8 -1.9 0.2 0.1 -1.4
-0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 -0.8 -1.9 -0.2 0.8 0.1
140.7
150.5
125.2
118.9
109.4
108.2
105.1
38.1
3.1
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
59.3 39.1 14.8 1.5 8.2 1.6 1.9 11.1 4.4 15.8 100.0
48.6 19.2 2.4 8.4 1.9 2.2 14.4 5.9
Source: PRIMES
166
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Portugal: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
9.996 102.0 171.7 2.23 83.5
10.018 116.9 175.1 2.37 86.0
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
10.195 142.8 175.7 2.34 85.0
10.529 149.1 181.3 2.29 88.4
10.723 147.9 168.9 2.07 82.0
10.947 162.4 155.6 1.94 79.3
11.108 179.6 136.9 1.80 75.4
11.224 198.7 125.1 1.74 74.2
11.317 221.5 113.1 1.64 72.8
17.9 12.6
20.9 14.0
22.2 15.0
26.2 16.1
31.7 17.7
35.7 18.0
37.6 17.0
0.2 3.4 0.2 0.5
0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.2
0.4 2.0 -2.1 -1.4
0.2 2.1 -1.9 -0.9
2.2
3.6
1.7
82.1 121.8 70.3 40.1 45.1
95.7 112.4 77.9 44.2 53.4
100.0 100.0 100.0 40.9 66.8
93.4 106.5 121.4 40.3 61.4
88.4 109.0 111.3 39.3 61.3
81.5 104.1 103.6 36.3 60.9
75.1 96.1 91.8 34.3 58.5
70.1 86.5 82.2 32.4 55.5
67.1 78.0 74.0 29.6 52.1
2.0 -2.0 3.6 0.2 4.0
-1.2 0.9 1.1 -0.4 -0.9
-1.6 -1.3 -1.9 -1.3 -0.5
-1.1 -2.1 -2.1 -1.5 -1.1
0.52 1.93 1.74 0.71 1.77 2.96
0.57 1.95 1.68 0.74 1.62 2.96
0.47 1.99 1.71 0.71 1.51 2.97
0.49 1.85 1.25 0.70 1.53 2.98
0.33 1.80 1.10 0.70 1.36 2.92
0.27 1.73 0.96 0.65 1.25 2.87
0.18 1.65 0.85 0.59 1.08 2.82
0.16 1.60 0.79 0.56 0.98 2.78
0.13 1.56 0.82 0.56 0.87 2.75
-1.0 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -1.6 0.1
-3.3 -1.0 -4.3 -0.2 -1.0 -0.2
-5.9 -0.9 -2.5 -1.7 -2.3 -0.4
-3.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -2.1 -0.2
19.6 0.2
20.2 0.2
24.3 2.7
28.3 4.8
33.3 7.2
35.1 8.7
37.1 9.8
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
43364 0 15643 7769 7229 1153 11321 168 1 80
46180 0 15647 8912 13599 1410 4730 1773 3 105
46279 0 10758 3209 12796 1884 10371 6853 194 215
49780 0 9184 3288 11834 4353 10892 8758 1239 233
52391 0 8051 2618 7659 8010 11092 10490 3733 737
55678 0 7763 1354 9050 8915 11292 11669 4480 1155
59729 0 4409 709 13166 10171 11491 12811 5498 1474
0.7
1.2
1.3
-3.7 -8.5 5.9 5.0 -0.9 44.9 69.3 10.4
-2.9 -2.0 -5.0 15.6 0.7 4.3 34.4 13.1
-5.8 -12.2 5.6 2.4 0.4 2.0 3.9 7.2
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
10360 0 3967 3883 83 1 0 6393 1640 0 1889 1383 2795 312 0 14
13096 0 5488 4422 1064 2 0 7607 1845 0 1903 2589 2730 372 0 14
17403 0 8490 4499 3832 156 2 8913 2269 0 1855 3921 2727 387 0 24
20580 0 10292 4622 4803 854 12 10288 2164 0 1807 5510 2181 766 0 24
22670 0 12746 4731 5601 2147 267 9924 2395 0 1807 5253 1420 1419 0 25
23061 0 13949 4731 6177 2557 484 9112 2493 0 1421 5234 882 1550 0 25
23718 0 15458 5077 6687 3044 649 8260 2381 0 568 5234 774 1658 0 25
5.3
2.7
0.5
7.9 1.5 46.7 65.7 3.4 3.3
4.1 0.5 3.9 30.0 61.2 1.1 0.5
1.9 0.7 1.8 3.6 9.3 -1.8 -0.1
-0.2 11.0 -0.2 2.2
-0.3 3.0 -6.3 13.9
-10.9 0.0 -5.9 1.6
5.5
0.6
0.0
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
46.1
38.9
29.6
26.9
25.6
26.5
27.8
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
42.1 10.6 0.0 29.3 0.0 29.3
42.6 12.2 0.0 17.4 0.0 17.4
40.5 21.4 0.0 42.2 0.0 42.2
41.1 24.0 0.0 51.2 0.0 51.2
41.2 29.5 0.0 65.0 0.0 65.0
41.0 29.0 0.0 67.4 0.0 67.4
42.9 26.8 0.0 69.4 0.0 69.4
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
56.9 10.3 33.3 6.3 6.7 0.3
67.3 11.3 41.9 5.3 8.5 0.2
91.5 11.8 59.2 4.6 15.7 0.3
105.0 11.1 72.0 4.7 17.0 0.3
110.8 10.8 75.4 5.0 19.2 0.3
121.0 11.2 80.7 5.5 23.2 0.3
130.0 11.8 85.6 6.0 26.3 0.3
140.4 12.3 90.5 6.5 30.7 0.3
151.6 12.8 96.1 7.1 35.3 0.3
4.9 1.4 5.9 -3.2 8.9 0.2
1.9 -0.9 2.4 1.0 2.1 1.0
1.6 0.8 1.3 1.7 3.2 0.5
1.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 3.0 0.4
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
32.3 28.9 1.5 1.9
35.4 32.0 2.0 1.4
41.9 38.9 2.2 0.8
46.0 42.6 2.4 1.0
48.2 44.7 2.5 1.0
52.5 48.7 2.8 1.0
55.7 51.6 3.0 1.1
59.1 54.7 3.2 1.2
63.0 58.4 3.4 1.3
2.6 3.0 4.1 -7.9
1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4
1.5 1.4 1.7 1.5
1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
3740 82 1573 1384 83 574 44
4869 95 2209 1817 81 620 47
6542 114 2788 2718 88 790 44
7055 113 3200 2769 66 881 26
7307 109 3219 2899 66 987 27
7587 110 3107 3137 68 1137 28
7721 110 3069 3195 67 1252 29
7828 108 3054 3217 65 1353 30
7776 107 2944 3235 55 1406 31
5.8 3.3 5.9 7.0 0.6 3.2 0.0
1.1 -0.4 1.4 0.6 -2.9 2.3 -4.9
0.6 0.0 -0.5 1.0 0.1 2.4 0.9
0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 -1.9 1.2 0.6
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
167
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Romania: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
41415 7935 7963 22911 0 2606 1460 1146 0 0 0
32618 7886 7124 14446 0 3162 1435 1726 0 0 0
28816 5875 6434 10968 1407 4131 1271 2854 0 0 7
28180 5793 6183 9701 1433 5070 1737 3314 0 0 18
27517 5741 4790 8875 2906 5206 1548 3587 34 6 31
29101 6593 5100 8181 2906 6321 1782 4222 128 83 105
30679 5589 5000 8007 4365 7717 2053 4862 235 383 184
31581 4871 4922 7784 5783 8221 2149 5035 292 480 266
31349 4223 4721 7417 5783 9205 2191 5866 327 507 314
-3.6 -3.0 -2.1 -7.1
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
22567 4615 11209 16126 -4917 5928 815
14552 2870 6862 8760 -1898 4794 26
8116 1905 3560 4870 -1311 2712 -60
10814 2904 3970 8851 -4882 4190 -250
11621 1940 6197 10981 -4784 3879 -342
11831 1904 7007 12194 -5187 3576 -573
11550 1831 6975 12134 -5159 3500 -652
11268 1786 6861 11977 -5117 3403 -663
10544 1628 6545 11546 -5001 3242 -671
-9.7 -8.5 -10.8 -11.3
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
63714 12318 19136 28838 0 815 2606
47138 10793 13917 19240 0 26 3162
37131 7753 10214 13680 1407 -60 4137
39242 8769 10321 13942 1433 -250 5026
39138 7680 10987 12754 2906 -342 5153
40932 8497 12107 11757 2906 -573 6238
42229 7421 11975 11508 4365 -652 7613
42849 6656 11782 11187 5783 -663 8103
41893 5851 11266 10659 5783 -671 9005
19.3 30.0 45.3 0.0 4.1
22.9 29.5 40.8 0.0 6.7
20.9 27.5 36.8 3.8 11.1
22.3 26.3 35.5 3.7 12.8
19.6 28.1 32.6 7.4 13.2
20.8 29.6 28.7 7.1 15.2
17.6 28.4 27.3 10.3 18.0
15.5 27.5 26.1 13.5 18.9
14.0 26.9 25.4 13.8 21.5
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
63398 14858
59255 13101
51925 9963
59402 9773
61460 9832
70554 10597
76787 10680
82781 10918
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
23517 8166 6202 9113 36 0 0
16474 7352 2996 6090 37 0 0
10637 5442 1683 3507 4 0 0
10103 5982 775 3343 3 0 0
9104 5783 464 2509 349 0 0
9154 6326 451 1932 423 23 0
7877 5102 398 1655 677 45 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
25114 23765 0 496 853
21082 15691 0 1902 3489
14984 11396 0 1739 1850
18111 15142 0 825 2144
18328 15771 59 977 1521
19978 17294 132 1120 1432
3579
5328
4163
4205
4115
922
1401
2048
2469
2399
37257
26634
22460
24613
25111 15699 9412 4548 3181 4416
14854 10577 4278 6353 2358 3069
9051 6223 2828 8426 1587 3396
3026 8055 20495 4690 377 612 0
1586 5519 10249 3126 4679 1476 0
977 5310 6885 2916 3570 2802 0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
Energy Branch Consumption Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
16.5
1.1 -0.3 0.4 -1.0 4.2 4.0 2.9 3.1 21.4 51.1 19.5
0.2 -2.8 -0.6 -0.8 2.9 1.8 0.7 1.9 3.3 2.9 5.5
3.7 0.2 5.7 8.5
-0.1 -0.6 1.2 1.0
-0.9 -1.2 -0.6 -0.5
-7.5
3.6
-1.0
-0.8
-5.3 -4.5 -6.1 -7.2
0.5 -0.1 0.7 -0.7 7.5
0.8 -0.3 0.9 -1.0 4.2
-0.1 -2.3 -0.6 -0.8 2.9
4.7
2.2
4.0
1.7
84897 10483
-2.0 -3.9
1.7 -0.1
2.3 0.8
1.0 -0.2
7103 4424 298 1580 710 91 0
7058 3757 393 2094 678 136 0
-7.6 -4.0 -12.2 -9.1 -19.0
-1.5 0.6 -12.1 -3.3 55.0
-1.4 -1.2 -1.5 -4.1 6.9
-1.1 -3.0 -0.1 2.4 0.0 11.6
19920 17134 248 1120 1418
19708 16899 364 1120 1326
18862 16267 561 841 1193
-5.0 -7.1
2.0 3.3
13.4 8.0
-5.6 -1.9
0.8 0.8 15.4 1.4 -0.7
-0.5 -0.5 8.5 -2.8 -1.7
4259
4185
4094
3882
1.5
-0.1
0.2
-0.7
2203
2047
1850
1636
8.3
1.6
-1.6
-2.2
24903
27119
28547
29061
28891
-4.9
1.0
1.4
0.1
9904 7109 2795 7964 2524 4221
9053 6188 2864 7893 2911 5047
9494 6129 3365 8184 3303 6138
10117 6306 3812 8180 3418 6832
10465 6282 4183 7846 3451 7299
10197 5825 4372 7580 3482 7632
-9.7 -8.8 -11.3 6.4 -6.7 -2.6
0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 6.3 4.0
1.1 0.2 2.9 0.4 1.6 3.1
0.1 -0.8 1.4 -0.8 0.2 1.1
1569 6606 7721 3337 2135 3244 0
1128 7170 7546 3515 2323 3221 0
1447 8232 7291 3986 2287 3875 1
1639 8360 7358 4424 2176 4587 2
1614 8478 7168 4915 2047 4838 2
1556 8452 6180 5144 1911 5645 2
-10.7 -4.1 -10.3 -4.6 25.2 16.4
1.4 3.0 0.9 1.9 -4.2 1.4 7.1
3.8 1.5 -0.3 2.3 -0.7 3.6 17.1
-0.5 0.1 -1.7 1.5 -1.3 2.1 1.1
4.7 -1.4 9.5
-0.5 -0.2 -2.9 -2.1 7.5 2.3 2.0 2.3
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
262.9
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
168.7 76.4 6.2 58.1 8.8 6.8 12.3 23.2 71.0
115.1 59.2 7.6 31.3 5.2 3.1 8.6 18.5
4118
4599
4916
5872
7213
7667
8568
138.2 84.8 40.6 7.4 18.8 6.6 1.9 9.7 13.1 40.3
150.5 79.5 90.3 37.2 7.9 21.5 7.2 4.4 12.2 16.3 43.9
140.9 68.9 85.8 33.7 7.7 17.3 7.3 5.4 14.5 14.2 40.9
138.2 68.5 90.9 34.9 7.8 17.9 7.0 5.8 17.5 14.2 33.1
131.9 63.9 86.0 29.0 7.4 18.7 6.7 5.0 19.1 15.5 30.3
127.4 60.6 82.2 25.7 7.2 18.1 6.5 4.6 20.1 16.5 28.8
122.8 55.8 76.9 23.7 6.6 15.2 6.5 4.5 20.4 16.0 29.9
52.5
57.2
53.6
52.5
50.2
48.5
46.7
1.8
3.9
1.7
-6.2
0.2
-6.6 -6.1 1.7 -10.7 -2.9 -12.2 -2.4 -5.5 -5.5
0.1 -1.8 0.5 -0.8 1.0 11.3 4.1 0.8 0.2
-0.7 -0.7 0.0 -1.5 -0.4 0.8 -0.8 -0.8 2.8 0.9 -3.0
-0.7 -1.3 -1.1 -2.0 -1.3 -2.1 -0.2 -1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.1
Source: PRIMES
168
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Romania: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
23.211 71.6 889.4 2.65 35.4
22.712 64.5 731.4 2.44 30.9
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
22.455 60.4 614.4 2.28 21.9
21.659 79.8 491.7 2.30 27.6
21.334 93.8 417.1 2.19 29.7
21.103 115.4 354.6 2.22 28.9
20.834 135.0 312.7 2.04 27.4
20.484 151.7 282.5 1.92 26.3
20.049 166.1 252.2 1.84 25.2
11.1 18.3
15.8 19.8
17.4 18.5
22.8 19.8
30.0 22.2
34.6 22.8
37.2 22.4
-0.3 -1.7 -3.6 -1.5
-0.5 4.5 -3.8 -0.4
-0.2 3.7 -2.8 -0.7
-0.4 2.1 -2.1 -1.0
4.6
5.6
2.2
200.0 50.5 186.9 16.3 37.3
171.9 69.0 138.7 20.1 36.8
100.0 100.0 100.0 28.4 34.8
81.4 58.9 121.7 21.4 30.6
71.1 48.8 110.4 22.0 31.5
61.1 41.4 99.6 22.3 31.9
54.0 36.3 85.5 22.4 31.4
48.1 31.5 74.2 22.1 30.5
42.8 28.5 65.4 21.3 30.2
-6.7 7.1 -6.1 5.7 -0.7
-3.4 -6.9 1.0 -2.5 -1.0
-2.7 -2.9 -2.5 0.2 -0.1
-2.3 -2.4 -2.6 -0.5 -0.4
1.12 2.31 2.32 1.94 2.13 2.79
0.43 1.81 2.11 0.83 1.33 2.81
0.39 1.64 2.07 0.78 1.17 2.85
0.39 1.84 2.17 0.90 1.73 2.89
0.33 1.78 1.91 0.92 1.86 2.87
0.31 1.78 1.89 0.85 1.77 2.85
0.25 1.74 1.85 0.82 1.47 2.80
0.22 1.70 1.73 0.83 1.34 2.75
0.20 1.61 1.49 0.86 1.28 2.68
-10.1 -3.4 -1.1 -8.7 -5.8 0.2
-1.4 0.8 -0.8 1.7 4.7 0.1
-2.8 -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 -2.3 -0.3
-2.3 -0.7 -2.2 0.5 -1.3 -0.4
17.0 1.5
17.6 1.0
18.6 2.2
20.5 3.2
24.0 5.0
25.2 6.5
28.4 9.1
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
51925 5455 18913 3398 9373 10 14775 0 0 0
59402 5554 21922 1894 9822 7 20203 0 0 0
61460 11592 21470 1139 7826 1031 18003 394 5 0
70554 11592 24050 1101 10256 1254 20724 1492 58 26
76787 17684 19886 1219 9244 1940 23869 2738 155 53
82781 23775 17356 930 9766 2227 24992 3394 237 105
84897 23775 15201 1097 12710 2375 25477 3799 306 158
1.7 7.8 1.3 -10.4 -1.8 59.0 2.0
2.3 4.3 -0.8 0.7 1.7 6.5 2.9 21.4 41.5
1.0 3.0 -2.7 -1.1 3.2 2.0 0.7 3.3 7.0 11.6
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
21880 667 6154 6154 0 0 0 15058 3742 0 8144 4299 2384 231 0 0
18732 663 6161 6160 1 0 0 11908 3305 0 6483 3584 1583 257 0 0
20396 1357 6563 6312 246 5 0 12476 3216 0 6640 4029 1550 258 0 0
22358 1368 7764 6778 926 60 0 13226 3809 0 7871 4066 1016 270 0 3
24626 2109 9362 7585 1616 161 0 13156 2817 0 8163 3569 975 443 0 6
21671 2844 9910 7677 1990 243 0 8917 2582 0 5264 2787 365 490 0 12
20362 2844 10232 7677 2240 315 0 7286 3049 0 3702 2732 365 470 0 18
-0.7 7.4 0.6 0.3
1.9 4.5 3.6 1.9 20.7 41.5
-1.9 3.0 0.9 0.1 3.3 7.0
-1.9 -1.5
0.5 -1.3
-5.7 0.8
-2.0 -0.6 -4.2 1.1
2.1 -1.2 -4.5 5.6
-7.6 -2.6 -9.4 0.6
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
25.4
33.8
32.3
34.0
33.8
41.4
45.4
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
25.6 35.2 0.0 39.0 10.5 28.5
28.6 28.6 0.0 43.4 9.3 34.0
29.7 24.6 0.0 50.5 18.9 31.6
34.5 27.0 0.0 49.8 16.4 33.4
35.3 24.2 0.0 60.5 23.0 37.4
36.8 21.7 0.0 66.1 28.7 37.4
38.4 24.2 0.0 65.8 28.0 37.8
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%)
11.6
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
87.7 24.0 24.3 36.6 2.8 0.0
78.1 12.3 39.0 24.9 1.8 0.0
78.9 12.0 47.6 17.6 1.7 0.0
87.7 11.8 58.4 14.6 3.0 0.0
100.6 12.6 67.3 14.8 5.9 0.0
119.5 13.7 83.1 15.5 7.2 0.0
135.8 15.0 96.0 16.5 8.3 0.0
149.4 16.1 106.7 17.5 9.2 0.0
160.9 16.8 116.0 18.2 9.8 0.0
-1.1 -6.7 7.0 -7.0 -5.1 -6.7
2.5 0.5 3.5 -1.7 13.4 -2.2
3.0 1.8 3.6 1.1 3.4 0.8
1.7 1.1 1.9 1.0 1.7 0.1
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
80.0 29.0 48.9 2.1
40.7 19.7 17.9 3.1
33.3 14.3 16.4 2.6
76.5 51.5 16.6 8.4
89.8 63.3 17.0 9.4
108.8 78.8 19.1 10.9
120.7 87.0 21.5 12.2
130.6 93.8 23.6 13.2
139.1 99.9 25.2 14.1
-8.4 -6.8 -10.4 2.3
10.4 16.1 0.4 13.6
3.0 3.2 2.3 2.7
1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
4416 241 843 2463 282 275 312
3069 130 1133 1039 472 192 103
3396 120 1893 688 451 128 115
4221 97 1610 2140 209 113 51
5047 103 1832 2624 207 224 57
6138 110 2233 3241 218 271 65
6832 115 2586 3532 230 296 72
7299 117 2840 3716 247 301 78
7632 115 2964 3918 253 300 82
-2.6 -6.7 8.4 -12.0 4.8 -7.3 -9.5
4.0 -1.5 -0.3 14.3 -7.5 5.7 -6.8
3.1 1.1 3.5 3.0 1.1 2.8 2.5
1.1 0.0 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.1 1.3
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
169
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Slovak Republic: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
5249 1397 81 338 3105 328 162 166 0 0 0
4862 1017 128 264 2950 503 427 76 0 0 0
6074 1018 162 133 4255 506 406 100 0 0 0
6634 637 384 126 4573 914 399 507 1 0 8
5975 932 38 123 3610 1272 403 857 7 4 2
8244 874 39 130 5139 2062 434 1548 31 36 13
8913 850 39 129 5327 2568 440 1935 55 64 75
10262 951 40 124 6261 2886 443 2221 76 87 59
10442 941 38 124 6361 2978 446 2223 97 111 101
1.5 -3.1 7.2 -8.9 3.2 4.4 9.7 -5.0
-0.2 -0.9 -13.5 -0.8 -1.6 9.7 -0.1 24.0
4.1 -0.9 0.2 0.5 4.0 7.3 0.9 8.5 23.3 33.3 45.9
1.6 1.0 -0.3 -0.4 1.8 1.5 0.1 1.4 5.8 5.6 3.1
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
16102 6055 4246 5916 -1670 5353 447
12344 4131 3565 5293 -1728 4528 119
11586 3437 2674 5310 -2636 5707 -232
12488 3737 3320 5433 -2114 5754 -281
12738 3275 4164 6490 -2326 5650 -166
12847 3231 4249 6630 -2381 5967 -174
12751 2889 4206 6586 -2379 5921 -215
11984 2853 4248 6647 -2399 5705 -340
11660 2800 4038 6370 -2332 5691 -424
-3.2 -5.5 -4.5 -1.1
1.0 -0.5 4.5 2.0
0.0 -1.2 0.1 0.1
-0.9 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3
0.6
-0.1
0.5
-0.4
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
20994 7771 4255 5088 3105 447 328
17748 5414 3543 5217 2950 119 504
17550 4261 2992 5776 4255 -232 498
19061 4231 3758 5921 4573 -281 858
18713 4206 4203 5773 3610 -166 1087
21091 4105 4289 6097 5139 -174 1637
21664 3739 4245 6050 5327 -215 2517
22245 3804 4288 5830 6261 -340 2402
22101 3741 4075 5815 6361 -424 2533
-1.8 -5.8 -3.5 1.3 3.2
0.6 -0.1 3.5 0.0 -1.6
1.5 -1.2 0.1 0.5 4.0
0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 1.8
4.3
8.1
8.8
0.1
37.0 20.3 24.2 14.8 1.6
30.5 20.0 29.4 16.6 2.8
24.3 17.0 32.9 24.2 2.8
22.2 19.7 31.1 24.0 4.5
22.5 22.5 30.8 19.3 5.8
19.5 20.3 28.9 24.4 7.8
17.3 19.6 27.9 24.6 11.6
17.1 19.3 26.2 28.1 10.8
16.9 18.4 26.3 28.8 11.5
23428 5213
26036 5190
30431 5246
31346 3910
31942 3843
36941 4175
41336 4406
47099 5219
49724 5668
2.6 0.1
0.5 -3.1
2.6 1.4
1.9 2.6
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
3178 2054 243 882 0 0 0
3113 1835 119 1158 0 0 0
2551 1617 30 905 0 0 0
2478 1638 99 701 40 0 0
3499 2061 166 957 315 0 0
3008 1874 30 746 351 8 0
3522 1581 142 970 776 52 0
3697 1721 6 1015 903 52 0
3993 1753 7 1217 922 94 0
-2.2 -2.4 -19.0 0.3
3.2 2.5 18.8 0.6
0.1 -2.6 -1.6 0.1 9.5
1.3 1.0 -26.5 2.3 1.7 6.2
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
9061 6339 0 265 2458
8065 5263 0 743 2060
8153 5541 0 586 2026
9349 6388 11 717 2233
9435 6973 47 530 1884
9905 7156 100 778 1871
9991 7148 216 819 1807
9965 7213 196 838 1718
9579 6909 222 820 1628
-1.1 -1.3
1.5 2.3
8.3 -1.9
-1.0 -0.7
0.6 0.2 16.5 4.4 -0.4
-0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.0 -1.0
Energy Branch Consumption
1153
994
915
2194
2279
2340
2301
2237
2125
-2.3
9.6
0.1
-0.8
Non-Energy Uses
1375
886
1263
1244
1219
1452
1641
1700
1740
-0.8
-0.4
3.0
0.6
14791
10460
10285
10613
10918
12222
12564
12522
12333
-3.6
0.6
1.4
-0.2
6728 3162 3566 2233 4384 1446
4088 2966 1122 1976 2980 1415
3816 3026 790 2586 2424 1459
4470 3645 825 2533 1815 1796
4123 3106 1017 2542 2011 2242
4572 3353 1219 2686 2377 2586
4578 3304 1274 2740 2558 2689
4477 3207 1270 2704 2639 2701
4341 3097 1244 2709 2649 2634
-5.5 -0.4 -14.0 1.5 -5.8 0.1
0.8 0.3 2.6 -0.2 -1.9 4.4
1.1 0.6 2.3 0.8 2.4 1.8
-0.5 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 -0.2
4319 3324 4319 2013 648 166 0
2322 1636 3907 1868 722 4 0
1511 1725 4537 1893 619 1 0
1511 2191 3651 1965 951 344 0
1254 2477 3525 2127 1173 362 0
1350 2768 3706 2508 1294 595 0
1301 2708 3531 2824 1598 602 1
1259 2711 3257 3127 1650 517 1
1136 2588 3134 3238 1729 507 1
-10.0 -6.4 0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -42.8
-1.9 3.7 -2.5 1.2 6.6 89.0
0.4 0.9 0.0 2.9 3.1 5.2 11.5
-1.3 -0.5 -1.2 1.4 0.8 -1.7 -0.4
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
68.0 53.1 12.0 2.4 17.7 4.4 12.5 4.0 3.5 11.4 100.0
38.5 12.8 1.7 11.1 2.9 6.1 3.9 2.8
291
722
927
1351
1845
1922
1965
45.8 34.3 10.3 1.6 9.7 4.1 4.5 4.1 3.3 8.2
49.3 29.1 36.9 10.2 4.9 10.6 3.5 2.5 5.2 3.7 8.6
50.5 29.0 38.5 12.5 4.9 8.8 3.3 2.6 6.4 3.9 8.0
49.4 27.1 38.5 11.2 4.5 9.1 3.4 2.9 7.3 4.9 6.0
47.8 26.1 36.4 10.8 3.6 8.5 3.4 2.8 7.2 5.9 5.6
47.9 26.8 36.1 11.1 4.0 8.0 3.2 2.6 7.3 6.1 5.7
46.4 26.1 34.5 11.0 3.5 7.4 3.2 2.4 7.0 6.2 5.7
67.3
72.4
74.2
72.6
70.3
70.5
68.2
12.3
7.1
0.6
-3.9
1.0
-4.3 -1.5 -4.3 -5.8 -0.6 -9.8 0.1 -0.7 -3.2
1.2 1.9 12.1 -1.0 -2.1 -5.5 4.6 1.8 -0.2
-0.5 -1.0 -0.6 -1.5 -3.0 -0.3 0.1 1.0 1.2 4.2 -3.6
-0.3 0.0 -0.5 0.2 -0.3 -1.5 -0.6 -1.7 -0.3 0.6 0.1
Source: PRIMES
170
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Slovak Republic: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
5.288 26.2 801.4 2.53 76.7
5.356 25.6 692.4 2.17 69.6
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
5.399 30.3 579.5 1.95 66.0
5.385 38.5 495.2 1.94 65.5
5.407 48.2 388.4 2.06 68.1
5.427 61.0 345.6 1.82 60.9
5.432 73.3 295.6 1.68 58.9
5.402 82.8 268.7 1.62 53.9
5.332 91.9 240.6 1.56 52.8
6.4 21.2
7.5 19.4
8.0 16.7
10.6 17.4
14.0 19.2
16.0 19.4
17.0 18.5
0.2 1.5 -3.2 -2.6
0.0 4.8 -3.9 0.5
0.0 4.3 -2.7 -2.0
-0.2 2.3 -2.0 -0.7
2.3
5.7
1.9
201.8 87.6 206.5 16.3 19.9
135.7 95.0 152.1 19.2 22.2
100.0 100.0 100.0 22.0 23.8
69.1 77.6 61.4 21.9 28.7
50.4 70.3 56.9 22.2 31.1
41.8 58.8 50.4 22.3 31.9
34.8 51.3 44.5 22.3 30.7
31.2 45.0 39.6 21.9 29.1
29.1 40.5 34.7 20.5 27.5
-6.8 1.3 -7.0 3.1 1.8
-6.6 -3.5 -5.5 0.1 2.7
-3.6 -3.1 -2.4 0.1 -0.1
-1.8 -2.3 -2.5 -0.8 -1.1
0.37 2.61 2.63 1.96 2.86 2.80
0.34 2.29 2.72 1.47 2.04 2.74
0.25 2.18 2.54 1.59 1.85 2.81
0.22 2.05 2.37 1.39 1.36 2.89
0.25 1.93 2.13 1.31 1.27 2.86
0.20 1.86 2.00 1.28 1.22 2.82
0.16 1.75 1.86 1.23 1.11 2.69
0.15 1.69 1.79 1.18 0.99 2.71
0.15 1.62 1.70 1.17 0.90 2.67
-3.6 -1.8 -0.3 -2.1 -4.3 0.0
-0.2 -1.2 -1.8 -1.9 -3.7 0.2
-4.0 -1.0 -1.3 -0.7 -1.4 -0.6
-1.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -2.0 -0.1
2.7 0.7
6.5 1.0
8.1 2.6
10.6 4.4
14.0 8.8
14.6 8.1
15.1 9.4
30431 16491 5591 126 3498 0 4725 0 0 0
31346 17724 5514 441 2929 95 4637 7 0 0
31942 13996 6400 846 4948 984 4685 78 4 0
36941 20330 6444 152 3285 1301 5042 365 13 9
41336 21115 5140 747 5497 2995 5115 637 30 60
47099 25852 5795 24 5770 3505 5151 888 54 60
49724 26285 6483 27 6730 3687 5189 1123 90 110
0.5 -1.6 1.4 20.9 3.5
2.6 4.2 -2.2 -1.2 1.1 11.8 0.9 23.3 22.8
1.9 2.2 2.3 -28.4 2.0 2.1 0.1 5.8 11.6 6.2
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
6775 2484 1620 1620 0 0 0 2671 491 0 1453 1138 81 0 0 0
7153 2605 1583 1578 5 0 0 2965 1043 0 1541 1191 182 50 0 0
6628 1859 1759 1686 69 4 0 3010 1296 0 1492 1284 184 50 0 0
8247 2721 2135 1797 325 14 0 3391 1392 0 1699 1294 169 228 0 1
8337 2808 2469 1863 575 31 0 3061 1809 0 1291 1136 123 502 0 7
9055 3351 2732 1863 812 56 0 2972 1631 0 1094 1177 115 579 0 7
9780 3406 2992 1863 1036 93 0 3382 1989 87 1128 1523 115 603 0 13
-0.2 -2.9 0.8 0.4
2.3 4.2 3.4 1.0 23.6 22.8
1.6 1.9 1.9 0.0 6.1 11.6
1.2 10.2
0.2 3.4
1.0 1.0
0.3 1.2 8.6
-1.4 -1.2 -3.9 25.9
-1.3 3.0 -0.7 1.8
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
45.6
46.6
51.7
48.5
54.1
56.5
55.0
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
31.1 21.6 0.0 69.7 54.2 15.5
31.2 17.0 0.0 71.7 56.5 15.1
32.4 24.0 0.0 61.8 43.8 18.0
32.0 21.4 0.0 73.3 55.0 18.2
35.3 26.0 0.0 72.5 51.1 21.4
35.3 23.2 0.0 75.4 54.9 20.5
36.7 25.9 1.8 73.4 52.9 20.5
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
-0.1
6.2
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
42.7 19.8 16.0 6.8 0.0 0.0
37.6 14.4 18.4 4.6 0.1 0.0
37.2 9.3 24.4 3.2 0.2 0.0
39.0 8.5 26.4 2.6 1.5 0.0
42.9 8.8 29.9 2.6 1.7 0.0
47.5 9.0 33.6 2.6 2.3 0.0
51.0 9.2 36.1 2.8 2.9 0.0
54.2 9.3 38.2 2.9 3.7 0.0
57.0 9.4 40.1 3.0 4.5 0.0
-1.4 -7.3 4.3 -7.3
1.5 -0.6 2.1 -2.2 22.1
1.7 0.5 1.9 0.7 5.8
1.1 0.3 1.1 0.9 4.2
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
37.7 15.6 21.4 0.7
31.2 15.9 13.8 1.5
27.0 14.3 11.2 1.4
32.8 22.6 9.5 0.7
41.4 30.7 9.9 0.8
47.8 36.1 10.9 0.8
50.5 37.5 12.1 0.9
52.1 38.1 13.1 0.9
53.1 38.2 13.9 1.0
-3.3 -0.8 -6.2 6.6
4.4 7.9 -1.2 -5.8
2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6
0.5 0.2 1.4 0.9
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
1446 123 558 652 100 0 12
1415 88 579 566 119 40 24
1459 57 724 552 83 27 16
1796 51 759 888 49 39 9
2242 52 852 1235 51 43 9
2586 52 945 1470 53 56 10
2689 51 1012 1489 57 69 11
2701 50 1050 1450 61 80 11
2634 50 1026 1394 63 89 11
0.1 -7.4 2.6 -1.7 -1.9
4.4 -0.9 1.6 8.4 -4.8 4.8 -5.8
1.8 -0.2 1.7 1.9 1.2 4.9 1.4
-0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.7 1.0 2.6 0.8
3.1
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
171
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Slovenia: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
2902 1432 3 20 1192 254 254 0 0 0 0
3020 1216 2 16 1245 542 279 263 0 0 0
3085 1062 1 6 1228 788 330 458 0 0 0
3492 1184 0 3 1518 787 298 489 0 0 0
3657 1252 0 4 1557 845 338 501 0 6 0
4194 1493 0 0 1557 1144 353 701 6 79 4
4544 1290 0 0 1557 1697 373 1147 19 130 29
5062 481 0 0 2863 1717 373 1127 25 163 30
5143 481 0 0 2904 1758 376 1140 29 184 30
0.6 -2.9 -10.4 -11.4 0.3 12.0 2.7
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
2572 130 1804 598 1206 723 -85
3063 186 2239 589 1650 750 -142
3381 245 2430 151 2278 820 -114
3825 323 2604 0 2604 925 -28
4279 270 3074 1 3072 984 -58
4655 244 3503 1 3501 991 -115
4810 251 3507 1 3506 1073 -135
4379 181 3425 1 3423 921 -246
4130 174 3216 1 3214 903 -270
2.8 6.5 3.0 -12.8 6.6 1.3
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
5523 1645 1754 763 1192 -85 254
6111 1402 2290 746 1245 -142 571
6427 1306 2393 826 1228 -114 788
7299 1539 2554 929 1518 -28 787
7907 1522 3044 987 1557 -58 855
8815 1738 3468 991 1557 -115 1176
9317 1540 3469 1073 1557 -135 1812
9402 662 3385 921 2863 -246 1817
9233 655 3175 903 2904 -270 1866
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms
29.8 31.8 13.8 21.6 4.6
22.9 37.5 12.2 20.4 9.3
20.3 37.2 12.8 19.1 12.3
21.1 35.0 12.7 20.8 10.8
19.2 38.5 12.5 19.7 10.8
19.7 39.3 11.2 17.7 13.3
16.5 37.2 11.5 16.7 19.5
7.0 36.0 9.8 30.5 19.3
7.1 34.4 9.8 31.5 20.2
12440 1584
12652 1497
13622 1662
15114 1943
16191 1964
18063 2145
19643 2300
21963 2331
1543 1296 155 92 0 0 0
1523 1315 119 90 0 0 0
1342 1253 12 62 15 0 0
1507 1411 9 58 30 0 0
1621 1431 2 147 41 0 0
1934 1641 2 135 153 3 0
2136 1444 2 152 510 27 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
596 542 0 53 1
582 505 0 76 1
253 170 0 83 0
90 1 0 89 0
97 1 39 56 0
170 1 119 49 0
Energy Branch Consumption
122
121
112
104
112
6
122
238
310
351
3373
3948
4440
4892
1469 729 740 853 122 930
1180 587 593 1180 259 1329
1424 840 585 1124 580 1312
243 1513 603 837 177 0 0
115 2106 468 807 192 260 0
97 2239 569 905 195 435 0
Annual % Change
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
Non-Energy Uses Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
1.7 1.7
2.2 0.3
1.2 -9.4
-4.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.9
0.0 7.2 1.0 8.6 37.0 79.9
6.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 4.1 3.5 0.3
2.4 1.0 2.4 -38.2 3.0 1.8
1.2 -0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9
-1.5 -3.6 -0.9 -0.4 -0.9 -1.7
1.5 -2.3 3.2 0.8 0.3
2.1 1.5 2.4 1.8 2.4
1.7 0.1 1.3 0.8 0.0
-0.1 -8.2 -0.9 -1.7 6.4
12.0
0.8
7.8
0.3
22522 2392
0.9 0.5
1.7 1.7
2.0 1.6
1.4 0.4
1271 590 0 123 532 27 0
1325 590 0 176 532 27 0
-1.4 -0.3 -22.8 -3.8
1.9 1.3 -15.5 9.0 10.2
2.8 0.1 -0.9 0.4 28.8
-4.7 -8.6 -20.7 1.5 0.4 0.0
324 1 264 59 0
371 1 287 82 0
420 1 335 84 0
-8.2 -11.0
-9.2 -38.9
4.7
-3.9
12.9 1.3 21.0 0.4
2.6 -0.4 2.4 3.6
127
134
132
131
-0.9
-0.1
1.9
-0.2
407
446
465
468
43.8
4.0
2.4
0.5
5448
6176
6537
6440
6231
2.8
2.1
1.8
-0.5
1657 1038 619 1186 575 1475
1694 1047 647 1204 569 1981
1841 1155 685 1330 588 2416
1932 1229 703 1402 584 2618
1849 1177 672 1362 564 2665
1759 1116 642 1358 540 2573
-0.3 1.4 -2.3 2.8 16.9 3.5
1.8 2.2 1.0 0.7 -0.2 4.2
1.3 1.6 0.8 1.5 0.3 2.8
-0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.3 -0.8 -0.2
80 2404 665 1096 196 452 0
61 2856 655 1153 257 467 0
63 3244 662 1242 314 650 1
61 3222 702 1344 338 869 1
41 3123 556 1428 453 837 1
37 2892 495 1448 479 880 1
-8.8 4.0 -0.6 0.8 1.0
-4.6 2.5 1.4 2.5 2.8 0.7
0.1 1.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 6.4 20.6
-4.9 -1.1 -3.4 0.7 3.6 0.1 -6.2
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
18.1 13.2 6.2 0.1 2.5 1.7 0.0 2.7 1.1 3.8 100.0
14.1 6.2 0.1 1.8 2.1 0.0 3.9 0.9
768
810
833
1128
1696
1700
1747
18.6 14.0 5.5 0.1 2.3 1.3 1.0 3.8 0.9 3.7
20.1 9.0 15.3 6.2 0.0 2.3 1.4 1.0 4.3 1.1 3.7
21.3 8.8 16.7 6.4 0.0 2.2 1.5 0.9 5.8 1.1 3.5
23.5 9.8 18.8 7.2 0.0 2.2 1.5 1.0 6.8 1.3 3.5
22.5 9.2 18.0 6.4 0.0 2.2 1.5 0.9 7.0 1.4 3.1
18.1 5.3 13.8 2.9 0.0 1.6 1.4 0.8 7.1 1.4 2.9
17.4 5.3 13.0 3.0 0.0 1.4 1.3 0.7 6.6 1.4 2.9
102.8
110.8
117.7
129.7
124.0
99.8
95.8
0.8
7.4
0.3
0.3
1.4
0.6 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -2.5 47.0 3.5 -1.9 -0.4
1.8 1.4
0.5 0.5 0.8 0.1
-2.5 -5.4 -3.2 -7.3
-0.8 1.2 -0.2 4.3 1.8 -0.6
0.2 0.0 -0.7 2.0 2.1 -1.3
-4.7 -1.1 -2.5 -0.5 0.3 -0.5
Source: PRIMES
172
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Slovenia: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
1.996 20.0 276.7 2.39 46.6
1.989 19.4 315.3 2.30 50.1
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
1.988 24.0 267.9 2.18 52.6
1.998 28.7 254.2 2.09 52.3
2.034 32.7 241.7 2.12 53.9
2.053 38.4 229.6 2.13 52.6
2.058 44.0 211.7 1.94 51.4
2.047 48.2 195.2 1.46 46.4
2.023 50.7 182.1 1.41 44.5
3.6 15.0
3.9 13.6
4.8 14.8
6.2 16.2
8.1 18.5
8.9 18.6
9.2 18.1
0.0 1.9 -0.3 -0.9
0.2 3.1 -1.0 -0.3
0.1 3.0 -1.3 -0.9
-0.2 1.4 -1.5 -3.1
3.0
5.3
1.2
109.1 99.0 27.6 33.4 22.8
109.6 123.5 54.1 45.5 56.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 38.5 42.7
92.4 92.2 82.4 32.6 41.9
82.8 85.2 72.6 32.1 46.1
77.0 80.8 63.4 31.2 47.0
71.5 74.0 54.7 30.4 45.1
65.0 64.9 47.7 27.6 43.1
61.2 60.4 42.9 24.6 40.5
-0.9 0.1 13.7 1.4 6.5
-1.9 -1.6 -3.2 -1.8 0.8
-1.4 -1.4 -2.8 -0.5 -0.2
-1.5 -2.0 -2.4 -2.1 -1.1
0.42 2.05 1.72 1.98 0.17 2.88
0.41 1.99 1.55 1.81 0.13 2.91
0.34 1.89 1.65 1.17 1.65 2.89
0.34 1.86 1.39 1.21 1.76 2.94
0.32 1.90 1.28 1.24 1.66 2.91
0.32 1.87 1.20 1.16 1.65 2.83
0.26 1.77 1.15 1.06 1.50 2.67
0.10 1.69 0.87 1.02 1.41 2.66
0.10 1.61 0.78 0.98 1.25 2.58
-2.0 -0.8 -0.4 -5.2 25.7 0.0
-0.7 0.0 -2.5 0.5 0.0 0.1
-1.8 -0.7 -1.1 -1.5 -1.0 -0.8
-8.9 -1.0 -3.8 -0.8 -1.8 -0.3
16.7 0.5
15.9 0.3
14.7 2.3
17.6 5.3
25.0 10.6
25.4 11.3
26.9 13.7
13622 4760 4630 40 313 45 3833 0 0 0
15114 5883 5314 34 324 100 3460 0 0 0
16191 6035 5183 9 870 165 3927 0 3 0
18063 6035 6335 7 778 710 4109 66 20 4
19643 6035 5960 7 901 2107 4332 223 48 31
21963 12305 2034 0 696 2183 4338 289 86 31
22522 12480 2043 1 950 2183 4367 333 135 31
1.7 2.4 1.1 -14.0 10.8 13.9 0.2
2.0 0.0 1.4 -2.1 0.4 29.0 1.0
1.4 7.5 -10.2 -17.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 4.1 10.9 0.0
Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
2748 696 846 846 0 0 0 1206 453 0 948 223 17 17 0 0
3084 696 963 963 0 0 0 1424 389 0 947 446 10 21 0 0
3284 706 1041 1038 0 3 0 1538 447 0 894 615 10 19 0 0
3823 706 1178 1082 75 21 0 1938 556 0 1199 617 10 111 0 0
4078 706 1486 1182 254 50 0 1885 504 0 1087 486 2 307 0 4
4584 1515 1604 1184 330 90 0 1465 600 0 682 472 0 308 0 4
4720 1515 1721 1201 380 140 0 1483 636 0 665 507 0 308 0 4
1.8 0.1 2.1 2.1
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
53.1
52.3
52.9
50.6
51.7
51.8
51.6
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
32.2 7.2 0.0 63.4 34.9 28.5
32.9 8.2 0.0 62.5 38.9 23.6
33.0 12.5 0.0 62.6 37.3 25.3
34.8 17.3 0.0 60.6 33.4 27.2
36.3 17.8 0.0 65.0 30.7 34.3
33.5 17.2 0.0 87.6 56.0 31.5
33.8 17.7 0.0 86.7 55.4 31.3
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived
32.5 2.2 0.0 3.6 1.3 32.5
1.5 7.9 1.5 0.2 4.1 10.9
2.5 -0.1
2.1 1.2
-2.4 2.4
-0.6 10.7 -5.2 1.4
2.0 -2.3 -15.9 32.0
-4.8 0.4 -22.3 0.0 0.0
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
21.6 6.5 13.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
21.4 4.1 16.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
25.0 3.5 20.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
26.9 3.1 22.7 0.8 0.4 0.0
29.5 3.3 24.9 0.8 0.5 0.0
32.7 3.5 27.7 0.9 0.6 0.0
35.2 3.7 29.8 1.0 0.7 0.0
36.9 3.8 31.2 1.1 0.9 0.0
37.8 3.8 31.8 1.1 1.0 0.0
1.5 -6.0 4.3 -6.8 3.7
1.7 -0.6 2.0 1.7 4.9
1.8 1.1 1.8 1.9 4.7
0.7 0.4 0.7 1.1 3.3
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
9.1 4.9 4.2 0.0
6.4 3.3 3.1 0.0
8.2 5.3 2.9 0.0
14.3 11.0 3.2 0.0
22.4 18.4 4.0 0.0
29.7 25.1 4.6 0.0
34.3 28.8 5.5 0.0
38.2 32.2 6.0 0.0
40.5 34.2 6.3 0.0
-1.1 0.8 -3.8
10.6 13.3 3.4
4.3 4.6 3.3
1.7 1.8 1.3
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
930 51 642 181 29 27 0
1329 33 918 329 29 20 0
1312 27 909 316 34 25 0
1475 23 829 570 29 23 0
1981 25 892 1000 35 29 0
2416 26 959 1357 40 35 0
2618 26 1004 1506 43 40 0
2665 26 948 1606 42 45 0
2573 25 855 1614 31 49 0
3.5 -6.2 3.5 5.8 1.4 -0.8
4.2 -0.9 -0.2 12.2 0.3 1.6
2.8 0.3 1.2 4.2 2.0 3.3
-0.2 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -3.2 1.9
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
173
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Spain: REFERENCE SCENARIO
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)
ktoe
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
33731 11679 801 1273 13701 6276 2184 4067 1 21 2
31366 10170 790 379 14305 5722 1987 3684 23 25 3
31335 7740 229 148 16046 7172 2534 4191 406 33 8
30127 6265 168 144 14842 8709 1681 5131 1825 65 8
32856 4745 135 70 15121 12785 2537 6132 3379 724 12
38099 4504 107 45 15267 18176 2603 9279 4785 1482 28
45375 4210 85 0 15267 25813 2663 12025 6040 3177 1909
40919 3061 0 0 8981 28876 2783 12857 7121 3283 2831
45484 2580 0 0 8981 33923 2884 13622 9430 3626 4361
-0.7 -4.0 -11.8 -19.4 1.6 1.3 1.5 0.3 79.0 4.5 12.3
0.5 -4.8 -5.1 -7.2 -0.6 6.0 0.0 3.9 23.6 36.3 4.9
3.3 -1.2 -4.5
0.0 -4.8
0.1 7.3 0.5 7.0 6.0 15.9 65.5
-5.2 2.8 0.8 1.3 4.6 1.3 8.6
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
60168 7038 49476 53717 -4240 3690 -36
76165 9146 59112 56145 2968 7521 386
99334 12636 70849 59233 11616 15467 382
123972 14418 79421 60834 18587 30248 -115
117252 9502 75096 59812 15284 32841 -377
122548 11936 78556 62382 16173 31880 -312
123995 10862 79286 62909 16377 33093 -361
133938 15010 79946 63412 16534 38489 -400
131850 14806 78068 62639 15429 38338 -387
5.1 6.0 3.7 1.0 15.4
1.7 -2.8 0.6 0.1 2.8 7.8
0.6 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.1
0.6 3.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.6 1.5
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
89717 18942 45863 4970 13701 -36 6276
102950 19515 55298 7722 14305 386 5723
123652 20643 64191 15219 16046 382 7172
144589 20698 70610 29844 14842 -115 8710
141874 14247 66998 32911 15121 -377 12974
151756 16440 69771 31925 15267 -312 18664
160071 15072 70071 33093 15267 -361 26928
165265 18071 70354 38489 8981 -400 29770
167569 17386 68303 38338 8981 -387 34948
3.3 0.9 3.4 11.8 1.6
1.4 -3.6 0.4 8.0 -0.6
1.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1
0.5 1.4 -0.3 1.5 -5.2
1.3
6.1
7.6
2.6
21.1 51.1 5.5 15.3 7.0
19.0 53.7 7.5 13.9 5.6
16.7 51.9 12.3 13.0 5.8
14.3 48.8 20.6 10.3 6.0
10.0 47.2 23.2 10.7 9.1
10.8 46.0 21.0 10.1 12.3
9.4 43.8 20.7 9.5 16.8
10.9 42.6 23.3 5.4 18.0
10.4 40.8 22.9 5.4 20.9
150944 21386
165585 24594
222776 32562
290518 40810
295436 39088
328781 43585
354623 46622
390183 53736
410386 55210
4.0 4.3
2.9 1.8
1.8 1.8
1.5 1.7
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
16683 13881 2171 486 145 0 0
18604 13585 3654 987 377 0 0
26463 18249 4445 3075 694 0 0
35421 17641 5249 11140 1391 0 0
31012 12180 4332 12962 1538 0 0
33474 14422 4155 11287 3610 0 0
35123 12960 3025 12283 5032 1823 0
42897 15507 2661 16630 5372 2727 0
42360 14595 2483 15237 5812 4234 0
4.7 2.8 7.4 20.3 16.9
1.6 -4.0 -0.3 15.5 8.3
1.3 0.6 -3.5 -0.5 12.6
1.9 1.2 -2.0 2.2 1.5 8.8
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
58344 54213 0 0 4131
59752 56829 0 0 2924
63964 60882 51 0 3031
64825 61490 259 0 3077
63011 59602 1558 0 1852
66855 62349 2817 0 1689
68704 62974 3918 0 1812
69969 63457 4468 0 2043
69675 62719 4793 0 2163
0.9 1.2
-0.2 -0.2 40.7
0.9 0.6 9.7
0.1 0.0 2.0
-3.0
-4.8
-0.2
1.8
Energy Branch Consumption
4745
5505
6119
6708
5993
6241
6374
6657
6385
2.6
-0.2
0.6
0.0
Non-Energy Uses
6027
8358
9467
8349
7850
8684
9439
10146
10616
4.6
-1.9
1.9
1.2
56801
63691
79631
97456
99875
108652
114871
119537
121618
3.4
2.3
1.4
0.6
20070 13093 6977 9275 5054 22401
20508 13648 6860 9998 7024 26162
25528 17306 8221 11886 9241 32977
31098 20472 10626 15168 11580 39609
30687 19168 11519 16085 11860 41242
33196 20399 12796 17540 12726 45190
36324 21956 14369 17817 13027 47703
39694 23512 16182 17382 13517 48944
42307 24696 17611 17137 13957 48216
2.4 2.8 1.7 2.5 6.2 3.9
1.9 1.0 3.4 3.1 2.5 2.3
1.7 1.4 2.2 1.0 0.9 1.5
1.5 1.2 2.1 -0.4 0.7 0.1
3524 33612 4903 10817 0 3945 0
2235 39125 6841 12116 39 3335 0
1671 46007 12141 16205 74 3533 0
1782 53066 17978 20824 0 3805 1
1182 51361 18884 21150 2266 5029 3
1242 54334 18835 23669 3674 6886 12
1283 54858 19147 25570 4277 9711 25
1621 54982 20146 27976 4856 9930 26
1775 53501 20809 29614 5418 10487 14
-7.2 3.2 9.5 4.1
-3.4 1.1 4.5 2.7 40.8 3.6 61.8
0.8 0.7 0.1 1.9 6.6 6.8 23.7
3.3 -0.3 0.8 1.5 2.4 0.8 -5.7
6612
8524
12414
17838
24325
26320
30043
386.1 281.1 94.1 13.4 46.4 16.5 13.0 97.7 27.0 78.0
440.6 207.1 336.8 113.0 14.4 55.4 20.4 16.3 117.3 30.4 73.4
407.0 171.3 308.5 92.5 12.3 47.2 21.5 16.4 118.6 27.1 71.4
420.0 176.5 320.7 96.6 11.4 47.2 22.1 16.6 126.8 28.8 70.5
415.9 171.6 314.9 88.0 11.6 48.9 19.5 16.0 130.8 30.3 70.7
440.9 194.9 337.6 106.9 11.4 53.7 17.0 16.0 132.6 32.3 71.0
432.4 189.8 326.5 99.1 10.6 56.7 15.3 16.1 128.7 33.9 72.0
135.4
154.6
142.8
147.3
145.9
154.7
151.7
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
285.1
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
202.4 63.6 11.5 40.7 12.9 7.7 65.9 23.1 59.6
224.6 68.2 13.1 41.9 13.6 10.6 77.2 22.3
-1.1
6.5
7.0
2.1
3.1
0.5
3.3 4.0 1.5 1.3 2.5 5.3 4.0 1.6 2.7
0.9 -0.2 -0.8 0.2 2.7 2.4 2.0 0.0 -0.9
0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 0.4 -1.0 -0.3 1.0 1.1 -0.1
0.4 1.0 0.4 1.2 -0.9 1.5 -2.4 0.1 -0.2 1.1 0.2
Source: PRIMES
174
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Spain: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
38.826 574.9 156.1 2.26 64.3
39.343 632.9 162.7 2.18 71.8
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
40.050 773.9 159.8 2.27 76.7
43.038 908.8 159.1 2.33 81.3
46.673 949.4 149.4 2.17 78.1
49.381 1099.4 138.0 2.11 76.3
51.109 1285.2 124.5 1.97 73.2
52.101 1474.1 112.1 2.04 76.6
52.661 1635.8 102.4 1.95 74.4
74.6 9.6
92.6 10.2
102.0 10.7
124.8 11.3
159.2 12.4
183.4 12.4
190.9 11.7
0.3 3.0 0.2 0.1
1.5 2.1 -0.7 -0.4
0.9 3.1 -1.8 -1.0
0.3 2.4 -1.9 -0.1
3.2
4.6
1.8
98.8 103.7 70.9 37.4 89.2
100.1 102.8 90.3 38.0 76.3
100.0 100.0 100.0 40.9 70.6
115.5 107.4 107.4 40.1 65.5
111.3 111.0 104.8 38.6 65.4
102.8 105.2 95.9 35.7 65.2
94.2 94.4 84.4 33.6 62.8
87.6 83.2 76.7 31.3 59.7
83.0 75.7 71.4 28.8 55.7
0.1 -0.4 3.5 0.9 -2.3
1.1 1.1 0.5 -0.6 -0.8
-1.7 -1.6 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4
-1.3 -2.2 -1.7 -1.5 -1.2
0.42 2.24 2.03 1.39 1.53 2.94
0.41 2.25 2.04 1.36 1.51 2.95
0.42 2.18 1.82 1.39 1.41 2.96
0.39 2.15 1.78 1.35 1.41 2.96
0.29 2.04 1.54 1.34 1.39 2.87
0.26 1.96 1.42 1.26 1.31 2.81
0.22 1.87 1.35 1.10 1.23 2.74
0.24 1.83 1.35 0.98 1.18 2.71
0.21 1.78 1.34 0.89 1.16 2.67
0.0 -0.3 -1.1 0.0 -0.9 0.1
-3.7 -0.7 -1.7 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3
-2.8 -0.8 -1.3 -2.0 -1.2 -0.5
-0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -2.0 -0.6 -0.3
8.0 0.4
8.5 1.0
12.0 4.7
15.9 7.7
20.5 10.1
21.2 11.3
23.8 12.7
222776 62195 86960 22636 14956 1824 29465 4723 18 0
290518 57529 93772 26417 67692 4303 19549 21215 41 0
295436 58619 58688 19094 80333 4250 29499 39295 5658 1
328781 59185 69908 18814 73077 12968 30267 55636 8925 1
354623 59185 62971 13285 79524 17335 30967 70230 19006 2121
390183 34817 75180 11872 107758 21162 32359 82805 21058 3172
410386 34817 70412 11847 98516 22404 33530 109652 24285 4924
2.9 -0.6 -3.9 -1.7 18.3 8.8 0.0 23.6 77.7
1.8 0.1 0.7 -3.6 -0.1 15.1 0.5 6.0 12.9 118.2
1.5 -5.2 1.1 -1.1 2.2 2.6 0.8 4.6 2.5 8.8
48421 7579 14819 12533 2274 12 0 26024 3800 0 11549 7466 6536 472 0 0
69109 7579 22686 12731 9918 37 0 38845 4796 0 11674 20921 5386 864 0 0
97751 7434 39490 13819 21674 3996 0 50827 5477 0 11466 31823 5609 1929 0 0
105157 6986 45931 13923 25779 6228 0 52240 8112 0 10531 33218 5112 3378 0 0
115743 6986 57276 14291 31399 11585 1 51482 8621 340 10530 31731 4855 4123 0 242
119647 4107 63696 14464 36292 12940 1 51844 11534 340 9886 32882 3979 4735 0 362
132584 4107 74497 15012 45408 14077 1 53979 12469 340 9180 34422 4472 5343 0 562
7.3 -0.2 10.3 1.0 25.3 78.7 6.9 3.7
1.7 -0.6 3.8 0.3 3.8 11.2 4.0 0.1 4.6
-0.1 15.6 -1.5 15.1
-0.8 0.0 -1.4 7.9
1.4 -5.2 2.7 0.5 3.8 2.0 0.0 0.5 3.8 0.0 -1.4 0.8 -0.8 2.6
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
50.2
46.0
33.4
34.6
33.9
35.8
34.2
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
41.1 9.7 0.0 44.1 27.9 16.2
46.7 8.2 0.0 35.3 19.8 15.5
45.0 8.2 0.0 46.5 19.8 26.6
44.9 14.1 0.0 50.8 18.0 32.8
42.9 13.8 0.6 56.1 16.7 39.4
43.9 17.5 0.6 50.1 8.9 41.1
42.2 17.4 0.7 56.0 8.5 47.5
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
8.8
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
301.3 33.4 186.8 19.9 59.6 1.6
386.4 39.6 257.3 20.8 67.0 1.6
476.1 50.3 310.2 25.4 88.6 1.6
535.4 53.2 346.4 27.6 106.5 1.7
558.5 59.7 353.7 28.3 115.1 1.8
640.5 64.9 402.7 31.0 139.9 1.9
718.6 69.9 454.4 35.2 157.1 2.0
794.3 73.8 498.0 39.8 180.6 2.1
854.4 76.4 527.4 43.9 204.5 2.2
4.7 4.2 5.2 2.5 4.0 -0.2
1.6 1.7 1.3 1.1 2.6 0.9
2.6 1.6 2.5 2.2 3.2 1.3
1.7 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.7 0.9
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
124.7 80.5 11.2 33.0
150.5 101.6 11.0 38.0
191.3 148.7 11.6 31.0
276.9 233.2 11.6 32.0
300.9 258.1 10.9 32.0
342.5 297.5 11.7 33.3
375.0 325.7 13.1 36.3
404.1 350.1 14.6 39.4
423.4 366.2 15.9 41.3
4.4 6.3 0.4 -0.6
4.6 5.7 -0.7 0.3
2.2 2.4 1.9 1.3
1.2 1.2 1.9 1.3
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
22401 356 8092 9305 529 2456 1664
26162 417 10704 9427 629 3105 1881
32977 522 14024 11708 850 4486 1386
39609 541 15106 15923 1171 5323 1544
41242 602 14798 17572 1072 5650 1548
45190 638 15197 20097 1142 6507 1610
47703 655 15882 21193 1154 7089 1731
48944 654 16203 21689 1145 7397 1857
48216 641 15716 21410 862 7656 1932
3.9 3.9 5.7 2.3 4.9 6.2 -1.8
2.3 1.4 0.5 4.1 2.3 2.3 1.1
1.5 0.8 0.7 1.9 0.7 2.3 1.1
0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -2.9 0.8 1.1
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
175
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
Sweden: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
29665 152 3 0 17764 11745 6234 5507 1 3 0
31344 225 4 0 18040 13075 5856 7206 9 5 0
30008 162 0 0 14781 15065 6757 8264 39 5 0
34207 211 0 0 18670 15325 6260 8978 80 6 0
32785 267 0 0 17074 15443 5814 9325 286 18 0
34123 179 0 0 16828 17117 5835 10553 676 53 0
34919 114 0 0 15536 19269 5857 12012 1253 148 0
34785 96 0 0 16378 18311 5864 10900 1370 177 0
33940 89 0 0 15953 17897 5871 10360 1458 208 0
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
18035 2399 15211 17071 -1861 577 -152
19405 2750 16044 17892 -1848 755 -145
19291 2409 15703 20449 -4745 776 402
20179 2556 17416 20071 -2655 843 -636
18642 2061 15850 18460 -2610 1224 -535
18004 1647 15585 18195 -2610 1181 -548
16400 1411 14802 17412 -2610 759 -811
16270 1601 14289 16897 -2608 993 -858
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
47213 2683 14596 577 17764 -152 11745
50401 2890 15786 755 18040 -145 13075
47896 2442 14429 776 14781 402 15065
51689 2629 14858 843 18670 -636 15325
49506 2328 13929 1224 17074 -535 15485
50091 1826 13548 1181 16828 -548 17256
49230 1525 12713 759 15536 -811 19508
5.7 30.9 1.2 37.6 24.9
5.7 31.3 1.5 35.8 25.9
5.1 30.1 1.6 30.9 31.5
5.1 28.7 1.6 36.1 29.6
4.7 28.1 2.5 34.5 31.3
3.6 27.0 2.4 33.6 34.4
145958 15140
148264 15969
145524 16250
158340 17365
155560 15509
1491 558 253 253 427 0 0
3246 705 737 406 1398 0 0
3239 467 276 414 2083 0 0
4458 494 317 490 3158 0 0
20664 18125 0 1123 1416
23542 19553 0 2373 1616
25372 21694 0 1973 1705
Energy Branch Consumption
1758
1629
Non-Energy Uses
1826
2051
30518
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
0.1 0.6
0.9 5.2
0.6 -8.2
-0.3 -2.4
-1.8 2.5 0.8 4.1 54.2 5.3
1.5 0.2 -1.5 1.2 22.0 12.7
-0.9 2.2 0.1 2.6 15.9 23.7 25.0
0.3 -0.7 0.0 -1.5 1.5 3.5 0.3
15623 1613 13701 16304 -2602 1134 -898
0.7 0.0 0.3 1.8
-0.3 -1.6 0.1 -1.0
-1.3 -3.7 -0.7 -0.6
-0.5 1.3 -0.8 -0.7
3.0
4.7
-4.7
4.1
48914 1697 12148 993 16378 -858 18557
47368 1703 11506 1134 15953 -898 17970
0.1 -0.9 -0.1 3.0 -1.8
0.3 -0.5 -0.4 4.7 1.5
-0.1 -4.1 -0.9 -4.7 -0.9
-0.4 1.1 -1.0 4.1 0.3
2.5
0.3
2.3
-0.8
3.1 25.8 1.5 31.6 39.6
3.5 24.8 2.0 33.5 37.9
3.6 24.3 2.4 33.7 37.9
162044 16399
168068 16978
174435 18171
174193 17977
0.0 0.7
0.7 -0.5
0.8 0.9
0.4 0.6
4955 596 401 946 3012 0 0
5301 323 288 928 3762 0 0
6021 114 227 448 5231 0 0
5920 197 234 764 4726 0 0
6338 90 25 966 5257 0 0
8.1 -1.8 0.9 5.0 17.2
4.3 2.5 3.8 8.6 3.8
2.0 -15.2 -5.5 -7.2 5.7
0.5 -2.4 -19.9 8.0 0.0
24500 20789 152 1728 1832
22356 18456 292 2342 1267
22143 18193 473 2082 1395
21322 17411 648 2082 1182
20818 16896 725 1884 1313
19725 16303 818 1127 1477
2.1 1.8
-1.3 -1.6
5.8 1.9
1.7 -2.9
-0.5 -0.6 8.3 -1.2 -0.7
-0.8 -0.7 2.4 -6.0 2.3
1532
1371
1303
1334
1314
1335
1281
-1.4
-1.6
0.1
-0.3
1808
2425
2444
2538
2566
2524
2544
-0.1
3.1
0.5
-0.1
32305
33350
33173
31651
32165
31708
30903
29976
0.9
-0.5
0.0
-0.6
11827 8542 3285 6542 4873 7276
11195 7497 3699 7735 5694 7680
12056 8396 3660 7554 5593 8147
12097 8887 3209 7302 5166 8608
10873 7822 3051 7336 4808 8633
10758 7685 3073 7403 4983 9021
10535 7448 3087 7235 4877 9060
10418 7314 3104 6848 4813 8824
10205 7097 3108 6530 4716 8526
0.2 -0.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.1
-1.0 -0.7 -1.8 -0.3 -1.5 0.6
-0.3 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.5
-0.3 -0.5 0.1 -1.0 -0.3 -0.6
1231 12007 587 10348 1706 4639 0
1192 12343 611 10711 3540 3908 0
1141 12389 673 11068 3550 4529 0
1345 11175 764 11382 4174 4332 0
1082 10006 603 11264 4762 3933 1
843 9945 678 11733 4459 4505 1
886 9504 622 11950 4266 4478 2
907 8918 594 12344 3832 4307 2
928 8397 611 12308 3670 4061 2
-0.8 0.3 1.4 0.7 7.6 -0.2
-0.5 -2.1 -1.1 0.2 3.0 -1.4
-2.0 -0.5 0.3 0.6 -1.1 1.3 9.0
0.5 -1.2 -0.2 0.3 -1.5 -1.0 -0.6
12960
13507
14566
16265
18123
17509
17079
1.2
2.2
-0.6
70.8
62.7 20.7 43.8 7.0 0.9 8.5 1.5 2.2 23.7 5.1 13.8
58.9 17.8 40.6 4.8 0.9 7.2 1.4 2.0 24.3 5.4 12.9
54.6 15.5 36.3 2.4 0.2 7.1 1.1 1.6 23.9 5.5 12.8
54.9 17.6 36.3 3.6 0.7 6.9 0.8 1.3 23.0 5.8 12.8
54.0 18.1 35.0 3.2 1.2 6.9 0.7 1.2 21.8 6.0 13.0
-0.1
-1.2
50.7 5.1 1.9 11.0 3.7 5.6 23.2 5.4 14.7
68.6 24.1 48.6 5.5 2.1 12.4 1.4 3.1 24.1 5.6 14.4
0.0 -1.9 2.3 -0.4 -2.6 0.0 1.1 -0.3 -0.6
-1.5 3.2 -7.1 -2.6 -8.8 -8.8 0.2 -0.6 -0.6
-1.4 -2.9 -1.9 -10.2 -13.1 -1.8 -2.6 -3.3 0.1 0.8 -0.8
-0.1 1.6 -0.4 2.9 18.4 -0.2 -4.4 -3.1 -0.9 0.8 0.1
98.8
95.7
87.5
82.2
76.2
76.6
75.3
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B) TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
71.7 50.5 6.3 1.5 11.5 4.9 5.6 20.7 5.6 15.6 100.0
53.3 7.9 1.8 11.7 4.6 5.4 21.9 5.9
Source: PRIMES
176
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
Sweden: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
8.527 210.0 224.9 1.07 37.7
8.816 220.4 228.7 1.06 37.7
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
8.861 259.7 184.4 1.06 39.2
9.011 294.7 175.4 0.94 37.6
9.306 304.3 162.7 0.88 36.2
9.588 342.8 146.1 0.81 34.5
9.853 380.3 129.4 0.74 32.0
10.094 417.7 117.1 0.74 31.9
10.270 456.7 103.7 0.74 31.5
25.7 9.9
32.0 10.9
32.7 10.7
37.4 10.9
43.7 11.5
46.5 11.1
47.6 10.4
0.4 2.2 -2.0 -0.1
0.5 1.6 -1.2 -1.8
0.6 2.3 -2.3 -1.8
0.4 1.8 -2.2 0.0
2.5
2.9
0.9
175.0 102.6 103.9 40.6 41.7
133.3 120.4 118.2 41.3 43.0
100.0 100.0 100.0 39.9 45.6
80.6 87.3 82.9 40.2 45.2
70.8 91.9 75.5 38.5 44.8
60.6 80.5 68.9 35.2 44.5
53.6 71.2 60.6 33.0 42.7
48.4 62.2 54.2 29.7 40.7
43.4 54.7 48.5 26.7 38.6
-5.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.9
-3.4 -0.8 -2.8 -0.4 -0.2
-2.8 -2.5 -2.2 -1.5 -0.5
-2.1 -2.6 -2.2 -2.1 -1.0
0.04 1.40 0.97 0.74 1.15 2.85
0.04 1.35 1.04 0.59 0.95 2.85
0.03 1.31 0.92 0.49 1.00 2.85
0.03 1.24 1.02 0.20 0.61 2.79
0.03 1.13 0.78 0.20 0.46 2.74
0.02 1.09 0.67 0.20 0.40 2.69
0.01 1.06 0.67 0.16 0.33 2.64
0.02 1.04 0.66 0.12 0.27 2.60
0.01 1.02 0.68 0.11 0.24 2.56
-3.1 -0.7 -0.6 -4.0 -1.4 0.0
2.0 -1.4 -1.6 -8.6 -7.5 -0.4
-10.5 -0.6 -1.4 -2.5 -3.4 -0.4
3.0 -0.4 0.1 -3.4 -2.8 -0.3
36.8 1.9
38.8 4.2
44.0 6.2
48.2 8.6
54.4 11.4
53.7 12.8
54.0 14.9
145524 57306 1623 1210 1599 4759 78570 457 0 0
158340 72364 1720 1277 1844 7405 72795 936 0 0
155560 66208 2264 2097 4242 9816 67600 3328 4 0
162044 65252 1271 1274 4762 13731 67850 7860 45 0
168068 60243 587 1179 2606 20704 68100 14567 82 0
174435 63507 936 1146 4525 20088 68183 15933 116 0
174193 61861 343 111 5597 20903 68267 16958 153 0
0.7 1.5 3.4 5.7 10.2 7.5 -1.5 22.0
0.8 -0.9 -12.6 -5.6 -4.8 7.7 0.1 15.9 35.7
0.4 0.3 -5.2 -21.1 7.9 0.1 0.0 1.5 6.5
33642 9584 16559 16347 209 3 0 7499 3662 0 764 549 4606 1581 0 0
33916 9646 16896 16374 516 5 0 7374 3662 0 686 405 3340 2943 0 0
35778 9685 17939 16460 1465 15 0 8154 4319 0 686 1093 3200 3176 0 0
38153 10545 19693 16679 2966 49 0 7915 4321 0 582 1093 2703 3537 0 0
41134 10547 22418 17012 5321 85 0 8170 3263 0 582 1093 2050 4445 0 0
40587 10547 23074 17086 5868 121 0 6966 3262 0 419 1110 1165 4271 0 0
41650 10547 23525 17086 6280 159 0 7579 4038 0 184 2239 416 4740 0 0
0.6 0.1 0.8 0.1 21.5 17.1
1.4 0.9 2.3 0.3 13.8 19.2
0.1 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.7 6.5
0.8 1.7
0.0 -2.8
-0.7 2.2
-1.1 7.1 -3.6 7.2
-1.6 0.0 -4.4 3.4
-10.9 7.4 -14.7 0.6
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
47.6
51.4
48.4
47.3
45.5
47.7
46.5
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
24.4 6.2 0.0 97.0 39.4 57.6
23.6 7.1 0.0 96.9 45.7 51.2
32.0 11.8 0.0 94.5 42.6 51.9
34.1 13.0 0.0 95.5 40.3 55.2
35.8 12.3 0.0 97.4 35.8 61.6
38.8 12.2 0.0 96.2 36.4 59.8
36.6 14.6 0.0 96.5 35.5 61.0
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
123.7 9.7 86.9 8.6 11.8 6.7
124.8 9.7 88.1 8.8 12.1 6.2
133.4 9.5 93.5 10.2 14.2 6.1
138.7 8.8 99.6 11.0 13.5 5.8
143.5 8.6 102.0 12.6 14.4 6.0
158.6 8.8 111.8 14.3 17.6 6.2
168.0 9.1 116.8 15.4 20.4 6.4
177.7 9.4 121.4 16.3 24.1 6.5
186.4 9.6 124.9 17.1 28.1 6.6
0.8 -0.2 0.7 1.7 1.8 -0.9
0.7 -1.0 0.9 2.1 0.2 -0.2
1.6 0.6 1.4 2.0 3.6 0.6
1.0 0.6 0.7 1.1 3.3 0.4
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
53.9 26.5 19.1 8.3
58.9 31.6 19.4 7.9
62.0 35.6 19.5 6.9
67.3 38.6 21.7 7.0
69.5 39.6 22.9 6.9
77.3 44.4 25.5 7.4
82.3 47.1 27.2 7.9
87.3 50.0 28.8 8.4
92.0 52.9 30.3 8.9
1.4 3.0 0.2 -1.8
1.1 1.1 1.7 0.1
1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4
1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
7276 129 4016 1974 252 760 144
7680 122 4078 2253 273 849 103
8147 130 4108 2526 299 928 155
8608 114 4468 2706 332 846 142
8633 110 4373 2768 350 888 144
9021 109 4287 3073 372 1028 150
9060 107 4125 3139 374 1158 156
8824 105 3766 3175 377 1242 160
8526 103 3384 3172 380 1324 164
1.1 0.1 0.2 2.5 1.7 2.0 0.8
0.6 -1.7 0.6 0.9 1.6 -0.4 -0.7
0.5 -0.2 -0.6 1.3 0.7 2.7 0.8
-0.6 -0.4 -2.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 0.5
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
177
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
United Kingdom: REFERENCE SCENARIO ktoe
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A) 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30
Production Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy sources Hydro Biomass & Waste Wind Solar and others Geothermal
205941 54125 93246 40925 16574 1070 436 627 1 5 1
250517 30516 133042 63715 21249 1996 416 1539 34 6 1
269601 18577 128893 97554 21942 2635 437 2104 81 11 1
203293 12172 86714 79397 21054 3956 423 3252 250 30 1
166170 10500 70000 63000 16098 6572 403 4767 1315 86 2
117081 9000 45000 35000 16255 11827 416 6097 4705 595 12
86718 7232 25000 24000 12152 18334 426 7622 8982 1267 36
82256 7000 20000 18000 17454 19802 427 8091 9931 1297 55
81302 6000 18000 13000 23960 20342 439 7961 10350 1515 77
Net Imports Solids Oil - Crude oil and Feedstocks - Oil products Natural gas Electricity Detailed Results
5720 9122 -10607 -4602 -6005 6178 1027
-36234 10493 -48766 -36569 -12197 637 1403
-39249 14577 -45734 -39312 -6422 -9311 1219
32152 27459 -2409 4857 -7266 5973 715
52358 25386 8108 14113 -6005 17511 512
97586 25082 34135 40182 -6047 35652 768
116877 18941 52077 58257 -6180 40392 784
118777 18740 55526 61810 -6283 40105 598
118254 16131 55889 62288 -6399 41357 591
Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Electricity Renewable energy forms
211304 64305 81124 47203 16574 1027 1070
218439 45866 82806 65119 21249 1403 1996
231868 36816 81857 87399 21942 1219 2635
232972 38387 82974 85473 21054 715 4370
216530 35886 76109 80511 16098 512 7413
212647 34082 77114 70652 16255 768 13777
201595 26173 75076 64392 12152 784 23017
199004 25740 73497 58105 17454 598 23609
197475 22131 71808 54357 23960 591 24628
30.4 38.4 22.3 7.8 0.5
21.0 37.9 29.8 9.7 0.9
15.9 35.3 37.7 9.5 1.1
16.5 35.6 36.7 9.0 1.9
16.6 35.1 37.2 7.4 3.4
16.0 36.3 33.2 7.6 6.5
13.0 37.2 31.9 6.0 11.4
12.9 36.9 29.2 8.8 11.9
11.2 36.4 27.5 12.1 12.5
316937 44606
332435 46775
374308 48358
395367 48835
390653 48690
406119 51220
420344 56049
438608 57577
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation Solids Oil (including refinery gas) Gas Biomass & Waste Geothermal heat Hydrogen - Methanol
56324 47267 7177 1668 212 0 0
49960 33844 3443 12054 620 0 0
55408 27232 767 25999 1410 0 0
61068 30920 677 26428 3043 0 0
60354 30066 331 26127 3830 0 0
56628 28514 500 22328 5276 9 0
50033 20877 427 21070 7638 21 0
Fuel Input in other transformation proc. Refineries Biofuels and hydrogen production District heating Others
99522 90259 0 0 9264
102761 94682 0 0 8079
100927 89873 0 3373 7682
95428 87812 68 2111 5436
90112 82729 1052 1867 4465
91456 84525 2037 632 4263
Energy Branch Consumption
12823
14392
15027
15548
14408
Non-Energy Uses
11365
12762
11323
11241
9836
137080
142633
152177
152272
34977 19485 15492 37941 18621 45541
35146 19968 15178 39568 20887 47032
36424 19231 17193 43074 20373 52307
12266 58903 41893 23597 0 421 0
8891 60401 47140 25274 0 926 0
5683 62950 52180 28325 2439 600 0
Annual % Change
as % in Gross Inland Consumption Solids Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewable energy forms Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe Self consumption and grid losses
Final Energy Demand by sector Industry - energy intensive industries - other industrial sectors Residential Tertiary Transport
2.7 -10.1 3.3 9.1 2.8 9.4 0.0 12.9 59.3 8.1 0.0
-4.7 -5.5 -5.9 -4.3 -3.0 9.6 -0.8 8.5 32.1 22.6 7.3
-6.3 -3.7 -9.8 -9.2 -2.8 10.8 0.6 4.8 21.2 30.9 36.6
-0.6 -1.9 -3.2 -5.9 7.0 1.0 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.8 7.9
4.8
5.7
8.4 -2.9 20.4 15.2
0.1 -1.6 0.7 0.7
1.7
-8.3
8.7 4.4
0.2 -2.8
0.9 -5.4 0.1 6.4 2.8 1.7 9.4
-0.7 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -3.0 -8.3 10.9
-0.7 -3.1 -0.1 -2.2 -2.8 4.4 12.0
-0.2 -1.7 -0.4 -1.7 7.0 -2.8 0.7
445376 57513
1.7 0.8
0.4 0.1
0.7 1.4
0.6 0.3
46943 20601 351 18236 7712 43 0
40674 16904 281 15668 7757 64 0
-0.2 -5.4 -20.0 31.6 20.9
0.9 1.0 -8.1 0.0 10.5
-1.9 -3.6 2.6 -2.1 7.1
-2.0 -2.1 -4.1 -2.9 0.2 11.6
91268 83044 3861 242 4121
89543 81854 3544 131 4013
88817 80474 3939 213 4191
0.1 0.0
-1.1 -0.8
-1.9
-5.7 -5.3
0.1 0.0 13.9 -18.5 -0.8
-0.3 -0.3 0.2 -1.2 0.2
13376
12880
12056
11344
1.6
-0.4
-1.1
-1.3
11000
11884
12604
13337
0.0
-1.4
1.9
1.2
144403
145257
142596
138472
136670
1.1
-0.5
-0.1
-0.4
34371 16421 17950 43519 19176 55206
32533 14745 17788 39651 17791 54429
32931 14815 18116 39797 17186 55343
33162 14976 18186 38505 16113 54815
33565 15228 18337 36461 15174 53273
33759 15550 18208 35993 14720 52199
0.4 -0.1 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.4
-1.1 -2.6 0.3 -0.8 -1.3 0.4
0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -1.0 0.1
0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.7 -0.9 -0.5
4418 65915 50227 29792 1268 653 0
3609 61631 45772 29232 2443 1713 3
3548 61276 42577 30594 4073 3179 9
3410 58723 38514 31428 5123 5371 28
3300 57269 35126 32697 5151 4914 15
3271 55408 34121 33291 5305 5267 7
-7.4 0.7 2.2 1.8
-4.4 -0.2 -1.3 0.3 0.0 11.1
-0.6 -0.5 -1.7 0.7 7.7 12.1 23.2
-0.4 -0.6 -1.2 0.6 0.4 -0.2 -13.1
by fuel Solids Oil Gas Electricity Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A) Renewable energy forms Other RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption
(B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.) of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions CO2 Emissions (energy related) Power generation/District heating Energy Branch Industry Residential Tertiary Transport CO2 Emissions (non energy related) Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
772.6
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)
100.0
566.4 214.1 27.1 81.8 77.8 33.0 132.6 22.8 183.4
532.7 173.0 31.3 78.8 77.3 35.3 137.0 23.4
1432
2139
4631
11871
21210
21536
22817
693.3 546.6 181.0 32.2 72.1 81.9 26.7 152.6 20.1 126.7
678.6 311.8 559.7 192.8 34.2 66.4 80.1 24.5 161.6 19.8 99.1
631.4 287.7 522.9 185.9 30.3 58.3 70.6 21.5 156.3 18.6 89.9
594.2 267.5 492.8 168.5 26.5 54.3 68.8 18.5 156.1 19.6 81.8
515.1 216.8 422.7 118.3 24.4 51.7 63.7 15.7 149.0 20.6 71.8
492.9 209.4 399.8 110.4 22.0 51.2 57.7 13.2 145.2 21.3 71.8
462.9 187.9 369.6 88.8 20.5 52.0 55.8 11.9 140.6 22.2 71.1
89.7
87.8
81.7
76.9
66.7
63.8
59.9
3.6
12.5
16.4
0.7
-1.1
-0.9
-0.4 -1.7 1.7 -1.3 0.5 -2.1 1.4 -1.2 -3.6
-0.4 0.3 -0.6 -2.1 -1.5 -2.2 0.2 -0.8 -3.4
-2.0 -2.8 -2.1 -4.4 -2.1 -1.2 -1.0 -3.1 -0.5 1.0 -2.2
-1.1 -1.4 -1.3 -2.8 -1.7 0.1 -1.3 -2.7 -0.6 0.8 -0.1
Source: PRIMES
178
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
APPENDIX 2B
SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B) 1990
United Kingdom: REFERENCE SCENARIO 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Annual % Change
Main Energy System Indicators Population (Million) GDP (in 000 MEuro'05) Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05) Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC) Import Dependency % Total Energy-related Costs
(C)
57.157 1263.3 167.3 2.68 2.7
57.943 1371.5 159.3 2.44 -16.4
(in 000 M€05)
as % of GDP Energy intensity indicators Industry (Energy on Value added) Residential (Energy on Private Income) Tertiary (Energy on Value added)
58.785 1623.9 142.8 2.36 -16.8
60.060 1831.7 127.2 2.40 13.7
61.984 1882.4 115.0 2.41 24.0
63.792 2132.4 99.7 2.32 45.5
65.683 2373.0 85.0 2.10 57.4
67.543 2625.4 75.8 2.01 59.1
69.224 2903.1 68.0 1.87 59.3
141.8 8.7
153.5 8.4
154.5 8.2
177.8 8.3
213.0 9.0
229.4 8.7
235.0 8.1
0.3 2.5 -1.6 -1.3
0.5 1.5 -2.1 0.2
0.6 2.3 -3.0 -1.4
0.5 2.0 -2.2 -1.1
0.9
3.3
1.0
104.4 116.5 123.1 45.4 56.2
102.7 113.7 124.4 45.3 53.2
100.0 100.0 100.0 47.6 53.7
104.8 87.6 78.1 47.2 53.7
103.1 82.0 69.4 44.9 53.3
96.5 71.2 58.1 41.5 53.0
90.7 61.1 48.5 39.1 50.6
84.7 52.7 41.0 35.6 47.8
78.8 47.4 35.8 33.0 44.9
-0.4 -1.5 -2.1 0.5 -0.5
0.3 -2.0 -3.6 -0.6 -0.1
-1.3 -2.9 -3.5 -1.4 -0.5
-1.4 -2.5 -3.0 -1.7 -1.2
0.68 2.37 2.34 2.05 1.77 2.91
0.52 2.30 2.24 1.95 1.69 2.91
0.45 2.19 1.98 1.90 1.31 2.92
0.47 2.18 1.93 1.84 1.28 2.93
0.44 2.12 1.79 1.78 1.21 2.87
0.36 2.05 1.65 1.73 1.08 2.82
0.24 1.96 1.56 1.65 0.97 2.72
0.22 1.93 1.53 1.58 0.87 2.73
0.17 1.91 1.54 1.55 0.81 2.69
-4.0 -0.8 -1.7 -0.7 -3.0 0.0
-0.2 -0.3 -1.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.2
-5.8 -0.8 -1.4 -0.7 -2.2 -0.5
-3.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -1.8 -0.1
0.9 0.0
1.4 0.2
3.2 2.7
8.2 5.3
15.0 10.5
15.7 10.3
16.9 11.8
374308 85048 125076 3447 150451 4253 5085 947 1 0
395367 81603 139027 3053 152255 11595 4921 2903 8 0
390653 62408 130670 1511 160359 15680 4682 15295 38 12
406119 63013 123821 2145 136904 19950 4840 54715 97 633
420344 48031 97722 1854 129300 28996 4958 104447 199 4837
438608 71330 97535 1454 111194 30014 4964 115476 316 6326
445376 102279 80767 1108 96785 30258 5099 120354 563 8162
0.4 -3.0 0.4 -7.9 0.6 13.9 -0.8 32.1 43.8
0.7 -2.6 -2.9 2.1 -2.1 6.3 0.6 21.2 18.0 82.9
0.6 7.9 -1.9 -5.0 -2.9 0.4 0.3 1.4 11.0 5.4
77225 13038 1873 1462 408 2 0 62315 4015 0 28647 26520 5826 1321 0 0
79496 10962 3016 1439 1565 11 1 65518 3141 0 27019 32734 4093 1672 0 0
86809 10723 8089 1499 6542 41 6 67997 5879 0 26336 35224 4330 2107 0 0
101581 9265 20945 1534 18987 101 323 71372 8192 0 21374 42352 2800 4844 0 1
110024 6012 40573 1617 36256 204 2497 63438 8711 2334 11178 43991 1485 6781 0 3
115588 8887 43170 1628 37960 326 3257 63530 9041 2334 11338 43582 1463 7141 0 6
120614 12679 46241 1712 39762 570 4197 61693 9488 2334 9799 43108 1299 7479 0 9
1.2 -1.9 15.8 0.2 32.0 35.3 0.9 3.9
2.4 -5.6 17.5 0.8 18.7 17.4 82.8 -0.7 4.0
-0.8 2.9 -2.9 4.8
-8.2 2.2 -10.1 12.4
0.9 7.7 1.3 0.6 0.9 10.8 5.3 -0.3 0.9 0.0 -1.3 -0.2 -1.3 1.0
Load factor for net electric capacities (%)
52.9
54.2
49.0
43.5
41.3
41.1
40.1
Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%) CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP) CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS) Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%) - nuclear - renewable energy forms and industrial waste
44.0 6.4 0.0 25.5 22.7 2.7
43.1 6.6 0.0 25.6 20.6 4.9
43.9 9.1 0.0 25.1 16.0 9.1
43.0 12.8 0.0 35.3 15.5 19.8
44.3 13.9 6.0 45.6 11.4 34.1
44.0 13.7 5.6 52.1 16.3 35.8
44.2 13.5 5.4 59.9 23.0 36.9
Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm) Freight transport (toe/Mtkm) Carbon Intensity indicators Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh) Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe) Industry Residential Tertiary Transport
Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)
(B)
RES in gross final energy demand (%) RES in transport (%) Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh) Nuclear energy Coal and lignite Petroleum products Gas (including derived gases) Biomass & waste Hydro Wind Solar, tidal etc. Geothermal othergases) renewables Gas (includingand derived Net Generation Capacity in MW e Nuclear energy Renewable energy Hydro (pumping excluded) Wind Solar Other renewables (tidal etc.) Thermal power of which cogeneration units of which CCS units Solids fired Gas fired Oil fired Biomass-waste fired Fuel Cells Geothermal heat
11.6
Transport sector Passenger transport activity (Gpkm) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Rail Aviation Inland navigation
740.2 47.7 593.9 39.9 52.2 6.5
770.7 45.8 622.3 37.1 58.8 6.7
823.2 48.5 645.0 46.7 77.4 5.5
884.5 49.5 680.0 53.1 96.7 5.3
909.1 51.6 693.4 60.5 98.2 5.4
992.2 54.9 747.7 66.4 117.7 5.5
1047.4 57.4 772.8 71.8 139.8 5.7
1112.0 59.4 814.8 76.6 155.3 5.8
1175.3 61.2 856.6 81.4 170.0 6.0
1.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 4.0 -1.6
1.0 0.6 0.7 2.6 2.4 -0.3
1.4 1.1 1.1 1.7 3.6 0.5
1.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 2.0 0.5
Freight transport activity (Gtkm) Trucks Rail Inland navigation
211.8 140.0 16.0 55.8
227.9 161.5 13.3 53.1
243.7 165.6 18.1 60.0
251.0 167.5 22.3 61.2
255.1 168.6 25.1 61.4
267.0 176.2 27.1 63.6
273.4 179.4 28.1 65.9
285.3 188.3 28.8 68.2
298.9 199.6 29.4 69.9
1.4 1.7 1.2 0.7
0.5 0.2 3.3 0.2
0.7 0.6 1.1 0.7
0.9 1.1 0.5 0.6
Energy demand in transport (ktoe) Public road transport Private cars and motorcycles Trucks Rail Aviation Inland navigation
45541 429 25845 10141 1068 6781 1277
47032 435 25978 10378 1238 7879 1123
52307 484 27091 11364 1326 11115 926
55206 505 27804 11406 1405 12810 1275
54429 522 27161 11453 1499 12508 1286
55343 541 26204 11851 1582 13843 1321
54815 538 24968 11617 1472 14866 1354
53273 527 23075 11603 1290 15389 1389
52199 510 22397 11595 1051 15230 1416
1.4 1.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 5.1 -3.2
0.4 0.8 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.2 3.3
0.1 0.3 -0.8 0.1 -0.2 1.7 0.5
-0.5 -0.5 -1.1 0.0 -3.3 0.2 0.4
Source: PRIMES
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
179
APPENDIX 2B
EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030
(A) Regarding heat from CHP, there is a break in the series between 2005 and 2010. This is related to the practice of Eurostat to report the fuel consumption of on site CHP under the final demand categories of the individual fuels, even if the fuel is in reality used in industrial CHP. In order to keep comparability with Eurostat statistics, the fuel consumption data for the statistical years are presented in a Eurostat compatible format. For the projection period from 2010 onwards the modeling allocates the fuel consumption for new CHP plants to the CHP part of the power generation sector while the corresponding heat and steam is shown under industrial energy demand. Comparisons concerning steam in industry should therefore start only from 2010 onwards. Except for the knock-on effect on total steam, this break in the heat series does not affect other comparisons in PRIMES that can start from 2005 or earlier years. (B) PRIMES does not report separately on industrial waste. In order to ensure a consistent breakdown of supply and demand quanties, industrial waste is shown as part of total waste and of renewables. Given that only biodegradable waste counts towards the renewables targets, the indicators on the share of RES in gross final energy demand have been adjusted to exclude industrial waste. RES indicators have been calculated on the basis of the methodology developed by EUROSTAT, i.e. taking into account normalised hydro and wind production, increased weight for renewable electricity in road transport and aviation cap for gross final energy demand. (C) excluding payments for auctioned emission allowances (if applicable)energy demand increased by distribution losses and self consumption of electricity and steam.
Disclaimer: Energy and transport statistics reported in this publication and used for the modelling are taken mainly from EUROSTAT and from the publication “EU Energy and Transport in Figures” of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport. Energy and transport statistical concepts have developed differently in the past according to their individual purposes. Energy demand in transport reflects usually sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, which can differ from the region of consumption. This is particularly relevant for airplanes and trucks. Transport statistics deal with the transport activity within a country but may not always fully include transit shipments. These differences should be borne in mind when comparing energy and transport figures. This applies in particular to transport activity ratios, such as energy efficiency in freight transport, which is measured in tonnes of oil equivalent per million tonne-km.
Abbreviations GIC: Gross Inland Consumption CHP: combined heat and power
Units toe: tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or 41.86 GJ (Gigajoule) ktoe: 1000 toe MW: Megawatt or 106 watt MWh: megawatt-hour or 106 watt-hours GWh: gigawatt-hour or 109 watt-hours t: metric tonnes, or 1000 kilogrammes Mt: Million metric tonnes km: kilometre pkm: passenger-kilometre (one passenger transported a distance of one kilometre) tkm: tonne-kilometre (one tonne transported a distance of one kilometre) Gpkm: Giga passenger-kilometre, or 109 passenger-kilometre Gtkm: Giga tonne-kilometre, or 109 tonne-kilometre
180
EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario
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