Evolution du Raffinage et de la Pétrochimie Christian Dupraz 14 Janvier 2013 Maison des Arts & Métiers 1

Plan de la Présentation

• •

Axens en Bref Evolution des marchés • À moyen Terme (2017) • À long Terme (2030)

•

Conséquences sur les outils • de raffinage • de pétrochimie

•

Production de carburants et produits « pétrochimiques » à partir de biomasse

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

2

Built on Strong Foundations Axens’ Industrial History Catalysts & Adsorbents

Technologies

Procatalyse

IFP Industrial Division

1821

Al2O3 ore is discovered and named “Bauxite” after the Southern French town of LesBaux-de-Provence.

1944

French Institute of Petroleum is created in RueilMalmaison, France

1855

1st industrial production of Alumina in Salindres, near Les-Baux-de-Provence.

1955

Start-up of the 1st IFP-licensed unit

1950s

Focus on refining and petrochemistry. Production of alumina-based catalysts.

1960s

1st licenses for HDS, Reforming and Cyclohexane production.

Paris RueilMalmaison

2001 Merger Procatalyse + IFP Industrial Division

Salindres Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

100% subsidiary of 3

Markets Served & Ambitions Business Units

Markets Served

Ambitions • Benchmark company for Clean Fuels and Aromatics production, • Leader in purification for olefins/polyolefins, syngas, refining and petrochemical, and natural gas streams, • Innovator in the biodiesel market and syngas to liquids technology.

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

4

How Do We Operate? Products Technologies Services Outside Axens perimeter

Equipment Supply Catalyst Management Training First Load Catalysts

Unit Revamping

Integrated Process Solutions (IPS)

License

Technical Consulting

Detailed Engineering

Basic Engineering

Construction

Start-up & Follow-up Assistance Advanced Process Control

Simulators

Feasibility Study Tender and technology choice

Replacement Load Catalysts

Project Achievement

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Unit on-stream

5

Sales Growth 300

Axens Group Sales, 100 basis in 2001 (creation)

~ 285 in 2011

250

200

150

2001-2011 Axens Group revenues almost trebled

100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

6

Commercial Network Development

Axens Canada Specialty Aluminas Inc. (Brockville)

•Axens

Axens Headquaters (Rueil-Malmaison, France)

Vostok (Moscow)

Axens (Beijing) Axens Far East KK (Tokyo) Trading Co Ltd (Beijing) Axens India Private Ltd Axens Middle East SPC (New Delhi)

Axens North America (Houston & Princeton)

(Bahrain) Axens South East Asia Sdn Bhd (Kuala Lumpur)

• 2007: Axens (Beijing) Trading Co Ltd • 2008: Axens Middle East SPC • 2009: Axens India Private Ltd • 2010: Axens Vostok • 2010: Axens Canada Specialty Aluminas Inc. • 2012: Axens South East Asia Sdn Bhd Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

7

Production Facilities Expansion

Brockville (2010) Willow Island (2011) Calvert City (2005)

Salindres Savannah

July 5, 2011 - "Axens and GENTAS to Build Hydroprocessing Catalyst Manufacturing Plant in Saudi Arabia"

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

8

Axens Today Selected Business Segments •

Adsorbents and Claus

•

•

Synergies from the acquisition of Criterion’s business make Axens a leader in catalytic reforming catalysts and process technology

Selective Hydrogenation & Liquid Catalysis

•

•

of worldwide refineries operate at least one refining unit licensed by Axens

Catalytic Reforming

•

•

Synergies from the acquisition of Rio Tinto’s activated alumina business make Axens a leader in the segment today

~ 42%

Axens is a leading pioneer (Nobel Prize) with a high performance product range

Hydroprocessing

• •

Gasoline: 50% of the world’s FCC gasoline is desulfurized by Axens’ Prime-G+™ process Middle Distillates: Over 100 licenses for Prime-D™ & Prime-K™

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

~ 20% of gasoline and diesel used in the world is produced by refining units licensed by Axens

9

Plan de la Présentation

• •

Axens en Bref Evolution des marchés • À moyen Terme (2017) • À long Terme (2030)

•

Conséquences sur les outils • de raffinage • de pétrochimie

•

Production de carburants et produits « pétrochimiques » à partir de biomasse

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

10

GDP Growth (%) 2010 – 2011 – 2012 – 2013 5.1 3.8 3.3 3.6 4.5 10 11

12 13

World

2.0 1.4 -0.4 0.2

10

10 11

-0.8 10 11 12 13

12 13

Japan

Russia

10 11 12 13

2.4 1.8 2.2 2.1

2.2 1.2

4.3 4.3 3.7 3.8

Euro area

11 12 13

United States 10.4

10.1 6.8 4.9

6.0

9.2

7.8 8.2

7.5 2.7

4.0

10

1.5

11 12 13

India

10

11 12 13

China

10 11 12 13

Brazil Source: International Monetary Fund (World Economic Outlook, October 2012) Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

11

11

Oil Demand Short Term Outlook

92

2011, 2012 & 2013 Oil Demand Latest estimates Mbpd

91

90.5 89.7

90 89

92 91 90

88.9

89

88

88

87

87 2011

2011, 2012 & 2013 Oil Demand Forecast (revised every month by IEA) Mbpd

2012

2013

2012 Oil demand estimates: -1.4 Mbpd (from 91.1 Mbpd in August 2011 to 89.7 Mbpd in October 2012) Source: International Energy Agency (Oil Market Reports) Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

12

12

Oil Demand Medium Term Outlook Mbpd

Oil Demand 95.7

96 95

94.5

1.6

1.34

1.4 1.22

94

93.2

93 91.8

92

1.29

1.23

1.2 1.0 0.8

91

0.88 0.84 0.81

90.5 89.7

90 89

Mbpd

Oil Demand Annual Change

88.9

0.6 0.4

88

0.2

87

0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Year-on-year oil demand differential may increase after 2013 Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Source: International Energy Agency (Medium Term Oil Market Report, October 2012) 13 13

Oil Demand Medium Term Outlook Mbpd

Oil Demand

OCDE OCDE Non OCDE

52

Mbpd

1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6

50 48 46 44 42 40 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2014: Non-OCDE demand > OCDE demand Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Oil Demand Annual Change

Source: International Energy Agency (Medium Term Oil Market Report, October 2012) 14 14

Refinery Feedstock Current Feedstock Quality (°API, Sulfur) Note: Size of lozenge is proportional to total production

Changes in Feedstock Quality °API change 2011-2017 (°API, Sulfur)

°API

39

1.8 1.4 1.0

34

29

0.6 0.2 -0.2

24 2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Sulfur content (wt%)

-0.6 +0.1

0.0

-0.1

Sulfur content change (wt%)

In contrast with past analyses, by 2017 refinery feedstock is expected to globally become lighter and sweeter (Strong US tight oil effect during the 2012-2014 period; °API will decrease (heavier feedstock) after 2014) Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Source: International Energy Agency (Medium Term Oil Market Report, October 2012) 15 15

Plan de la Présentation

• •

Axens en Bref Evolution des marchés • À moyen Terme (2017) • À long Terme (2030)

•

Conséquences sur les outils • de raffinage • de pétrochimie

•

Production de carburants et produits « pétrochimiques » à partir de biomasse

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

16

2030 Oil Demand Axens Scenario 110

Global Oil Product Demand, Mbdoe

105

105

99.8 99,8

100 95 90 88,2 85 80

•

2010

2020

2030

~ 100 Mbdoe oil demand by 2020 • 2010-2020 AAGR = + 1.2%

•

~ 105 Mbdoe oil demand by 2030 • 2020-2030 AAGR = + 0.5%

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Mbdoe = Million barrel oil equivalent / day Source: Axens, IEA & other sources (2010)

17

Global Oil Product Demand Outlook 2010-2030 AAGR by Product Other* LPG Naphtha Motor Gasoline Jet/Kerosene On-road diesel Off-road diesel Fuel Oil

0.7% 0.5% 2.2% 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 0.4% -0.5%

Global 2010-2030 AAGR: 0.9%

Market Structure 2010 vs. 2030 100% 13%

13%

80%

9% 7%

8% 9%

60%

27%

26%

40%

5%

6%

16%

19%

20% 0%

13% 10%

11% 7%

2010

2030

88.2 Mbdoe 104.7

•

Demand growth driven by transportation fuel • •

• •

Mbdoe

mainly middle distillates Gasoline: lower growth than middle distillates, but main contributor by 2030

Naphtha growth driven by petrochemicals Heavy fuel oil demand = only 7% of the global demand by 2030

Source: Axens & Other sources (2011) Other* = Kerosene (≠ Jet Kerosene), Refinery Gas, Petroleum Coke, NGL, Lubricants, Bitumen, Paraffin Wax, Refinery Losses, …

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

18

2020 Demand Growth Will be Driven by Emerging Countries…

14,8

23,3 23,5

4,3 5,1 14,6 FSU

14,3 10,0

4,9

Europe North America

7,4

9,5

3,4 4,3 India

Middle East

3,3 6,1 7,4

China

4,5

Japan

10,5 12,3

4,2

Africa

Other Asia Pacific

Latin America

Global demand 2010 2020 Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Mbdoe 88.2 99.8

Unit: Mbdoe Source: Axens Estimates

19

2010-2020 Incremental Demand by Products 0,2 0,0 0,8

2,0

0,4

FSU

0,6

1,6

0,2

0,4 0,0

1,2

0,2 -0,2

0,0 -0,2

-0,4

-0,4

-0,6

0,8

Europe

-0,6

0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 -0,2

North America

Fuel oil Distillate = Diesel + Kerosene/Jet Gasoline Naphtha

1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 -0,2 -0,4

0,6 0,3 0,0

Latin America

0,0

Middle East

0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 -0,2

China

0,2 0,0 -0,2 -0,4

Japan

India 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0

Other Asia Pacific

Africa

Global demand 2010 2020 Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

0,4

Mbdoe 88.2 99.8

Unit: Mbdoe Source: Axens Estimates

20

Gasoline Specifications Chart Source: IFQC, WWFC

EN 228 1993 Euro II

Dir 98/70 2000 Euro III

Dir 98/70 2005 Euro IV

Dir 98/70 2009 Euro V

WWFC Fourth Category

(Final Proposal)

Aromatics, vol%, max

-

42

35

35

35

Olefins , vol%, max

-

18

18

18

10

Benzene, vol%, max

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Oxygen, wt%, max

-

2.7

2.7

2.7/3.7 (2)

2.7

Sulfur, ppm, max

500

150

50(10) (1)

10

5-10

RVP, kPa

35 - 100

60.0 / 70.0

60.0 / 70.0

60.0 / 70.0 (3)

Lead, g/l max

0.013

None

None

None

None

(1) 2005 introduction of 10ppm sulphur – Fuel must be geographically available in an appropriately balanced manner (2) 3.7% by mass in “high biofuel petrol” (Methanol: 3% vol, Ethanol: 10% vol, Iso-propyl alcohol: 12% vol, Tert-butyl alcohol: 15% vol, Iso-butyl alcohol: 15% vol, ETBE: 22%vol, other oxygenates: 15%vol) (3) The legal vapor pressure limit remains at 60kPa for both gasoline grades and at 70kPa for Member States with arctic or severe weather conditions. However, blending ethanol in gasoline results in a non-linear change of the vapor pressure, and, as oil refiners do not currently produce low vapor pressure gasoline, the commission has introduced a permitted vapor pressure waiver that is directly linkedto the percentage of ethanol blended in gasoline (ranging from 0 vol% to 10 vol%). 21

European Diesel Specifications

Sulfur, ppm max Polyaromatics, vol% max

Cetane Number, min

Density, @15°C, kg/m3, min-max

Distillation, °C, T95, max

EN 590 Euro II 1993

Dir 98/70 Euro III 2000

Dir 98/70 Euro IV 2005

Dir 98/70 Euro V 2009

2000/500

350

50(10)*

10

11

11

11

8

46-49

51

51

51

820-860

845

845

845

360

360

360

360

* 2005 introduction of 10ppm sulphur – Fuel must be geographically available in an appropriately balanced manner

Source: IFQC

22

Regional Gasoline & Diesel Quality Forecasts Sulfur, ppm

Sulfur, ppm

Gasoline Pool

1000 800 600 400 200 0 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2010

On-Road Diesel Pool

2015

2020

Sulfur, ppm Europe North America Asia-Pacific CIS Latin America Africa Middle East

2025

2030

Off-Road Diesel Pool

5000 4000 3000 2000 Source: Hart WRFS 10

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

1000 0 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

23

Sulfur Limits Marine Bunker Fuel

Emission Control Areas (ECA)

1.5 wt% 1 wt% Current 2010 4.5 wt%

0.1 wt% 2012

2015

2018

3.5 wt%

2020

2025

0.5 wt% Review to assess sufficient availability of 0.5% sulfur FO

If not

Final adoption of 0.5 wt% deferred

Global

Source: IFQC 2009 Abatement technologies (e.g. exhaust-gas scrubbing) is allowed as an alternative to using compliant fuel Important Scale Change and Uncertainty

25

Refining & Petrochemicals Synergies Market Analysis Crude Oil Demand by Sector

World Demand Index Polymer Demand

900

Average Growth Rate 1990-05

800 700 600

5.6%

500

Mb/d

80

Power generation

60

Residential/other ind.

GDP*

400

Transportation fuels

40

300

3.2% 2.1% 1.5%

200 100

Petrochemicals

Gas Production Oil Production

1980

1990

2000

20

13%

0

0

• • •

100

2010

2020

2030

1980 2005 2030

Polymer demand growth >> Crude oil production growth Crude oil demand share dedicated to petrochemicals increases Let’s see the impact on polymer demand Source : TOTAL

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

GDP*: Gross Domestic Product

26

Polymer Demand 2010-2020 Average Annual Growth Rate

North America +2.0%

Europe +2.0%

China +6.0%

Middle East +5.8% Rest of Asia +4.4%

Rest of the World +5.4% Global Polymer Demand 2010-2020 AAGR: +4.3% Source: Total Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

27

Plan de la Présentation

• •

Axens en Bref Evolution des marchés • À moyen Terme (2017) • À long Terme (2030)

•

Conséquences sur les outils • de raffinage • de pétrochimie

•

Production de carburants et produits « pétrochimiques » à partir de biomasse

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

28

Raffinerie simple ‐ début des années 70

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Source: IFP Training

29

Raffinerie avec conversion classique ‐ années 80‐‐90

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Source: IFP Training

30

Raffinerie d’aujourd’hui et de demain (2010 ‐ 2020)

MTBE TAME

HDS

Conversion

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Source: IFP Training

31

Resid Upgrading Option 1: H-OilRC + Mild HCK + FCC C D U

FG

Prime-D LPG C3= Naphtha

V VGO Mild D HCK U

AR 100

Gasoline

FCC

MD

VR

Fuel Oil

H-OilRC HCO

126 20

21 3 15 2 33 5 wt

LPG and C5+ production 28 183

Total: 95 238 37

32

Resid Upgrading Option 2: H-OilRC + HyK FG

C D U AR 100

Prime-D LPG

Naphtha

V D U

VGO

HyK

MD

HCK Residue

VR H-OilRC

Fuel Oil

17 109

LPG and C5+ throughput

4 27 108 17

7 46 wt

Total: 97 337 52 33

Resid Upgrading Option 3: Delayed Coker + HyK FG

C D U AR

Prime-D LPG

V D U

100

Naphtha

VGO

HyK MD

HCK Residue

VR DC

Coke 109 17

LPG and C5+ production

330 20 115 18

7 46 wt

Total: 95 325 50 34

Resid Upgrading Option 4: HyK + Hyvahl + R2R C D U

FG

LPG C3=

V D U

AR 100

VR

Naphtha

VGO

Gasoline

HyK

MD

HCK Residue

Hyvahl

R2R Fuel Oil

5 34

8 49

319 13 2

10 69

LPG and C5+ production

wt

Total: 94

22 142 44 286

35

Global Capacity Requirements for 2020 Geographical Breakdown 40%

Source: Hart & Axens Estimates 30%

26%

40% 20%

40% 30%

11% 10%

30%

8%

20%

0%

10%

20% 10%

13% 8%

10%

0%

8%

40%

0% 0%

North America

30%

30%

20%

10%

14%15%

14%

51%

20%

50%

10%

40%

0%

30%

40%

40%

20%

60% 23% 20%

Europe

0%

FSU

30%

0%

0% 0%

37% 35%

34% 23%

Middle East 9%

10%

2%

4%

25%

20%

6%

10%

0%

5%

0%

Africa

0%

Asia-Pacific

Latin America

Crude Distillation

Light Oil Processing

∆= + ~ 10.0 Mbpd

(Reforming, Isomerization, Alkylation)

∆= + ~ 1.5 Mbpd

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Hydroprocessing

Conversion

(Naphtha, gasoline, Middle Distillates HDT AR / VRDS)

(HCK, Resid HCK, Coking, RFCC/FCC, MHC)

∆= + ~ 9.5 Mbpd

∆= + ~ 5.0 Mbpd 40

Plan de la Présentation

• •

Axens en Bref Evolution des marchés • À moyen Terme (2017) • À long Terme (2030)

•

Conséquences sur les outils • de raffinage • de pétrochimie

•

Production de carburants et produits « pétrochimiques » à partir de biomasse

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

41

Refining & Petrochemical Flow Exchanges Refining

Technology

Petrochemicals

•Unsaturated ROG •FCC C3 cut

•PRU

•FCC C4-C5 cuts

•Conversion to C3=

Final Products

(C3=) PP

•Coker C3-C4 cuts •Saturated ROG

•Purification

•Excess of C3, C4

•Dehydrogenation H2, C4, Pygas

•SR Naphtha •Cracked Naphtha •CCR Reformate •Gas Oil •HC bleed

Steam Cracker

•HDT & Splitter •to Aromatics •to SC

•VGO

•to SC or PetChem FCC

•AR/VR

•PetChem RFCC Gasoline Pool Bases

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

(C2=) PE, PVC (C3=) PP …

Raffin.

Pygas

Aromatics Complex ParamaX

(Styrene) PS Polyethylene terephthalate PET … 42

Case Study 1 Refinery with HCK, HP FCC + ParamaX SR Naphtha

CDU

Naphtha

Aromatic Complex ParamaX Naphtha H2

Benzene Paraxylene

Gasoline Toluene rich cut, A8+ Pool A9+, raffinate, light naphtha Kero

HCK VDU

Gasoline Bleed

VGO

HP FCC Delayed HCGO Coker

Propylene

LPG Coke

Refinery production 400,000 bbl/d

Diesel

Aromatics production Paraxylene: 700 kt/y (2.5% of 2010 PX world production) Benzene: 140 kt/y

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

43

Case Study 2 Existing Refinery with Steam Cracker + ParamaX Heavy Naphtha

Aromatic Complex ParamaX

Benzene Paraxylene

Existing refinery

Gasoline

H2 export Pygas

Kero Diesel Residue

Propylene

C2, LPG, raffinate Light Naphtha

SC

Aromatics production

Existing Refinery production 400,000 bbl/d

Ethylene

Paraxylene: 1,400 kt/y (5% of 2010 PX world production) Benzene: 650 kt/y

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

44

Case Study 3 Refinery + ParamaX + HP FCC + Steam Cracker Naphtha SR LPG

CDU 150 000 bpsd

Kero Diesel

LPG

Naphtha HDT & Splitter

VDU

LN Kero

LCGO

HCK

HHN

Ethylene export

Pygas & Naphtha HDT

C4 recycle

Butadiene

C4

HP FCC

Propylene

Butadiene Extrac.

Naphtha LPG

Diesel

C4 HDT

Aromatics production

Refinery production 150,000 bbl/d

Propylene

Ethylene

HCGO

Coke

Steam Cracker

C2 C3

UCO

Paraxylene

Pygas

C5 Recycle

HN LPG LN+Kero

Benzene

HDT Pygas + FCCN

Raffinate

Middle Distillate HDT

Naphtha

Delayed Coker

HN

Kero HDT VGO

Aromatic Complex ParamaX

Paraxylene: 780 kt/y (2.9% of 2010 PX world production) Benzene: 690 kt/y

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

45

Refining & Petrochemicals Integration Case Studies Petrochemical Yield Case Study 1

&

Refinery + Aromatic Complex

6-7 %

Case Study 2

&

Refinery + Aromatic Complex + Steam Cracker Complex

18-19 %

Case Study 3

& Increasing integration

Refinery + Aromatic Complex + Steam Cracker Complex + Zero Gasoline

> 40 %

Key Message 1

Refining & Petrochemical integration generates • CAPEX Advantages: optimized design capacities + shared utility production • OPEX Advantages: energy efficiency by utilities consumption lower CO2 emissions = positive environment effect

Technology creates value by increasing asset profitability Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

46

Focus on Shale Gas Definitions •

What is Shale Gas?

• •

•

Shale Gas: Natural gas trapped within shale formations Shale: Dark fine-grained sedimentary rock formed by the compression of clay-rich sediment Shale constitutes about 50-60% of all the sedimentary rock found in the Earth’s crust

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

•

What makes it different from conventional natural gas? Nature of the reservoirs Extraction • Hydraulic fracturing: In conjunction with horizontal drilling

Quality • Shale gas ethane content is higher than natural gas ethane content

47

Focus on Shale Gas US •

In the US, since late 2005, shale gas production increased drastically:

•

2010: 142 Gm3 (23% of total U.S. dry gas production)

•

2011: ~207 Gm3 (32% of total)

•

2035: 385 Gm3 (49% of total)

Number of drilling rigs in the US:

Source: DOE EIA

Main shale gas fields:

• • •

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Barnett (Texas) - historical Marcellus (North East) - attractive Haynesville (Louisiana) - attractive

48

Gas Prices 20

$/MMBtu

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-02

Jan-03

Annual averages ($/MMBtu)

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan.10

Jan.11

Jan.12

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 (end Q3)

Henry Hub (US)

3.4

5.5

5.9

8.8

6.7

7.0

8.9

3.9

4.4

4.0

2.6

Zeebrugge (NWE)

2.6

3.6

4.4

7.3

7.9

6.1

10.9

4.9

6.7

9.2

9.2

Indonesian LNG (Japan)

3.9

4.4

5.2

6.2

7.1

7.4

10.2

6.6

8.3

13.7

16.2

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

49

Unités Vapocraquage En Opération 34 Mt 27 Mt 4 Mt

North America

Europe

49 units

59 units

CIS 15 units 16 Mt 26 Mt

China Middle East

30 units

30 units 2 Mt 5 Mt

South America

33 Mt

Africa

Asia Oceania* 60 units

6 units

15 units

Capacity given for C2= in millions tons Chart bars given for C2= capacity *Does not include China

264 running Steam Crackers worldwide Total C2= capacity : 148 Mt Utilization rate: 83%

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

50

Steam Crackers Feedstock By Region Global Feedstock: 351 Mt/y

Source: SuperProud Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

51

Shale Development Impacts USGC Olefins Spread Olefins Margin Naphtha = ∆ (Ethylene price – Naphtha price) Olefins Margin Ethane = ∆ (Ethylene price – Ethane price) 1200

$/ton

1000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan.10

Jan.11

Jan.12

-200 Annual averages $/ton

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 (end Q2)

Olefins Margin Naphtha USGC

144

191

325

456

323

260

205

49

274

287

341

Olefins Margin Ethane USGC

189

184

342

523

436

357

390

243

520

669

966

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

52

Plan de la Présentation

• •

Axens en Bref Evolution des marchés • À moyen Terme (2017) • À long Terme (2030)

•

Conséquences sur les outils • de raffinage • de pétrochimie

•

Production de carburants et produits « pétrochimiques » à partir de biomasse

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

53

Global Supply Diversification by 2030 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Global Demand (Mbdoe)

Mbdoe

3.0

2.3 1.2 74.4

1.4 72.7

3.9

4.9 Alternative Fuels*

1.6

74.9

Others (incl. Proc. Gains)

78.5

82.5

83.9

84.4

NGL+ Condensates Crude Oil * Alternative Fuels = Biodiesel (FAME+HVO) + BioJet (HVO) + BtL Diesel + GtL Diesel + CtL & DCL Diesel + Ethanol-1G and -2G

2008

2009

2010 2015E 2020E 2025E 2030E

86.5

85.5

88.2

94.1

99.8

103.0

104.7

Alternative Fuels* could represent ~ 5% of global supply (volume basis) by 2030 Source: Axens estimates (2011)

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

54

Axens Estimates Alternative Liquid Fuels 2005 - 2030 5,0 4,5 4,0

Source: Axens estimates (2011)

Mbdoe

• • • •

3,5

2015: “plateau” reached for FAME & Ethanol-1G 2020+: Biojet, Biofuels-2G & coal-based fuels GtL: outlook improved by shale gas 2030: 8.5% of alt. fuels into on-road fuels • ~ 25% of 2010-2030 incremental demand

CtL+DCL liq.

0.78 Mbdoe GtL liq.

0.51 Mbpdoe Ethanol-2G

0.88 Mbdoe 3,0

BtL

0.20 Mbdoe

2,5

Ethanol-1G

2,0

1.34 Mbdoe 1,5

Biojet (HVO) 1,0

0.43 Mbdoe

0,5

Biodiesel (FAME + HVO)

0.80 Mbdoe 0,0 2005

2008

2011 est.

2015 est.

2020 est.

2025 est.

2030 est.

CtL + DCL liq. = Liquids from Coal to Liquids (CtL) and DCL (Direct Coal Liquefaction). GtL liq. = Liquids from Gas to Liquids BtL = Biodiesel from Biomass to Liquids ; FAME = Fatty Acid Methyl Ester ; HVO = Hydrotreated Vegetable Oils. 55

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Axens’ Biofuels Portfolio Esterfip-H™ Renewable Oils & Fats

Transesterification

Vegan™

Renewable Kerosene and Diesel

Prime-D™

Partially Renewable Kerosene and Diesel

Hydrotreatment

Mineral Diesel

Biomass*

Co-processing

Gasification

Bio Diesel (FAME)

Syngas

Gasel® Fischer-Tropsch + Upgrading

High Quality Kerosene, Diesel and Naphtha

… + other biofuel pathways under development (bio-oil upgrading,…) * When Biomass replaced by Natural Gas or Coal Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

production of GTL or CTL 56

Bio-Ethylene from Ethanol

Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

57

Conclusion Axens’ Commitment

Developing Markets: Innovative and market-orientated grassroot schemes Conférence Maison des Arts & Métiers, C. Dupraz, 14 Janvier 2013

Mature Markets: Improved Competitiveness of existing assets 58

Evolution du Raffinage et de la Pétrochimie 14 Janvier 2013 Maison des Arts & Métiers 59