FSS Daily Focus
13 June 2017
Today’s Strategy >> Continue to trade within range
2017SET Target : 1650
Yesterday's market: The SET closed slightly down amid weak
Stock of the Day >> AP <<
trading volume of just Bt30bn as investors continued to have their eye fixed on FOMC meeting this week. Moreover, international fund continued to stream in at slower rate. Given that, foreign investors registered a net sell position in all of the three markets. Their combined net outflow was about Bt1.5bn. Today's outlook: We expect the SET to continue to move sideways, even though foreign equity markets were capped by technology shares (a situation which we expect to have limited impact on Thai equity because we do not have such kind of stock). Looking ahead, investors will continue to wait for results from FOMC meeting due to be held today and tomorrow. Although it is quite certain that policy rate will increase by 0.25%, investors still need to keep an eye on signal to reduce the size of the Fed's balance sheet. Given that, we believe the index will move within 1560-1573.
• Eight projects with combined value of over Bt8bn planned in 2Q17. They comprise two condos on mass transit railway lines and six low-rise projects. Currently, all still go as planned and are mostly scheduled to be launched in May-June this year. • AP's current backlog stands at Bt9.5mn, while its JV's is Bt5bn. Of that, the projects scheduled to be realized as revenue this year are enough to secure 63% of our revenues estimate. • AP +2.6% 2QTD. It lags behind peers which +7% over the period. In addition, it currently trades at forward PE of 7.6x and is equal to forward PEG of just 0.4x, the lowest in the property development sector. Hence, we recommend our investors buy AP at our 2017 TP of Bt9.
Strategy: Trade within range, particularly the stocks that are anticipated to be added into the SET50 and the SET100. Top picks in June: CPF, GLOBAL, SYNEX, TACC, THANI
Fund Flow Yesterday, international fund flowed out of regional equity markets by US$602mn. To elaborate, foreign investors registered a net sell position in Taiwan by US$456mn, South Korea by US$183mn and Thailand by US$10mn, while recording a net buy position in Indonesia by US$47mn. Looking ahead, we expect fund to continue to stream out as markets wait for results of the FOMC meeting held tonight and tomorrow.
Market Summary (Bloomberg) 12-06-17 %1 Day %WTD 1,563.81 -0.18 -0.18 SET 984.87 -0.27 -0.27 SET50 30,849.40 (Bt mn) Daily turnover 15,506.01 (Bt bn) Market cap 16.22 (x) Market P/E 1.87 (x) Market P/BV 3.11 (%) Market yield Forward P/E (Bloomberg) 2016E 15.27 SET 13.81 China 12.45 Hong Kong 16.02 Indonesia 10.25 Korea 19.40 Philippines 14.29 Taiwan 18.70 S&P500 Top 5 Short sell Turnover THBmn (SET) Stock 12 Jun 9 Jun 8 Jun 7 Jun SCC 79.50 52.35 13.96 151.69 KTB 68.27 154.75 67.15 53.48 KBANK 53.20 111.49 84.13 178.29 PTT 41.38 60.70 121.30 3.91 BANPU 30.36 28.93 39.28 110.90 Contact person : Jitra Amorntham Register : 014530 Tel: 02-646-9966 www.fnsyrus.com FB: Finansia Syrus Research, IG: fss_research
%MTD 0.14 -0.12
Today's Highlights • (0) U.S. equity markets capped by technology shares. Markets start to be concerned that the Dot-com crisis that took place in 2000 will happen again. However, the sector's average PE of 20x is still far lower than the 55x seen during the crisis. Hence, the risk that a crisis will take place and consequently drag the S&P500 to tumble is low. On the contrary, we view that the pause in U.S. equity markets will raise the chance for international fund to flow back into Thai equity. In this regard, we anticipate it to happen after FOMC meeting results are out. • (+) EA. The 45-MW wind farm in Nakhon Si Thammarat has started commercial run on June 10, 2017 following the COD of its 36-MW wind farm on March 3. Given that, EA's current wind capacity is 81 MW. Looking ahead, the company still has 45 MW of wind capacity that will start commercial run this year, which will send the company's total electricity generating capacity to 404 MW (i.e. solar 278 MW + wind 126 MW) by the end of this year. As a result, we expect its annual profit to continue to hit new high until 2019. We stand by our 2017 TP of Bt33 and retain our BUY rating on EA, which is anticipated to be added to the SET50 calculation for 2H17. • (+) SWC. We expect 2Q17 profit to +33% Y-Y, +10% Q-Q to Bt50mn thanks to rises in revenues because it's a high season. Moreover, cost was down in line with the fall in crude and Baht appreciation. The counter currently trades at low forward PE of just 10x in 2017. What's more, we predict it to give annual dividend yield of 4-5%. We retain our BUY rating on SWC at our 2017 TP of Bt14.7. • (0) SET will announce new set of SET50/SET100 late this week. In this regard, there might be speculation in the counter that are expected to be added in. For the SET50, expected additions include BJC, BPP, EA, JAS, MTLS, RATCH and TISCO, while expected deletions comprise BA, BCP, CENTEL, CK, PTG, THAI and WHA. For the SET100, we expect ALT, ANAN, BCPG, BJC, BPP, BWG, EA, GFPT, GL, JAS, MALEE, MEGA, PTL, RATCH, TWPC, WORK to be added in, while HANA, ICHI, IFEC, KAMART, LHBANK, PLANB, RS, SAMART, SCN, SGP, SPCG, THANI, TTW, TVO, VIBHA, VNG to be removed from the list. Investors Summary (SET) 12-06-17 Foreign (Bt mn) Proprietary (Bt mn) Local Institution(Bt mn)
2017E 13.73 12.31 11.44 13.72 9.53 17.36 13.35 16.71 6 Jun
31.39 1.94 39.35 99.79 58.44
Buy 8,232.13 3,487.40 4,320.16 14,809.74
Retail (Bt mn) SET50 Index Future – Contract (www.tfex.co.th) 12-06-17 Buy 20,875 Institution 12,296 Foreign 53,377 Local
Sell 8,583.74 3,596.43 3,444.73 15,224.54
Net -351.61 -109.03 875.43 -414.80
Sell 20,460 15,721 50,367
Net 415 -3,425 3,010
Factors to watch Jun 13-14 - US: FOMC meeting (markets expect policy rate to increase by 0.25%) Jun 13 - Eurozone: ZEW Survey (Jun) Jun 14 - China: Retail sales, Fixed assets, Industrial production (May) - US: Inflation (May) Jun 15 - Indonesia: BI meeting Jun 16 - Japan: BOJ meeting - Eurozone: Inflation (May) - US: Housing starts & Building permits (May) Jun 22 - Philippines: BSP meeting - Eurozone: Consumer confidence index (Jun) Jun 23 - Thailand: Auto sales (May) - Eurozone: Markit Composite PMI (Jun)
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June 13, 2017
Cash Balance (Col= excluded from credit limit ; xNet= prohibit Net settlement)
Cash Balance (Col= excluded from credit limit ; xNet= prohibit Net settlement)
Stocks (Rank A-Z)
Stocks (Rank A-Z)
Start Date
End Date
(T/O)
29/05/2017
16/06/2017
CCN-W1
(T/O)
29/05/2017
16/06/2017
FVC
(T/A1)
13/06/2017
3/07/2017
FVC-W1
(T/A1)
13/06/2017
3/07/2017
KWG
(T/A1)
31/05/2017
20/06/2017
NEWS
(T/O)
22/05/2017
30/06/2017
NEWS-W4
(T/O)
22/05/2017
30/06/2017
NEWS-W5
(T/O)
22/05/2017
30/06/2017
NOK
(T/O)
12/06/2017
21/07/2017
Start Date
End Date
FSS Daily Focus
CCN
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