Gold Daily

Gold Daily – 6 March 2015 Brought to you by Phillip Futures Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital)

6 March 2015

Key Price Changes 5-Mar-15 1-D Chng %Chng Spot Gold EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD AUDUSD DJIA S&P 500 Nasdaq Comp

1198.2 1.1029 120.14 1.5239 0.7783 18,135.72 2,101.04 4,982.81

-1.25 -0.0049 0.45 -0.0026 -0.0035 38.82 2.51 15.67

-0.10% -0.44% 0.38% -0.17% -0.45% 0.21% 0.12% 0.32%

Gold Daily Outlook D-day ahead: US nonfarm payrolls may cause a huge movement in gold prices tonight, as Bollinger bands compress to tightest since October 2014.

Market Commentary Gold Price Movements Gold fell -0.1% yesterday to end below $1,200 for a second straight session. Prices closed yesterday at $1,198.20 in an extremely volatile session, which saw gold running to as high as $1,209 at one point – only to slip back to $1,196 in 2 ½ hours. The key event that took place yesterday was undoubtedly the monetary statement and press conference by the ECB. President Mario Draghi officially kicked off this QE programme with this meeting, but what really caught the attention of the markets was the ECB’s upward revision of growth in the region to 1.5% from the prior estimate of 1% this year. The twin combination of higher growth and loose monetary policy sent European shares rising, which meant demand for gold dampened further.

Gold-Crude Relationship 1350 108

1330 1310

103

1290 98

1270 1250

93

1230 88

1210 1190

Gold (LHS)

1170

83

WTI Oil (RHS)

1150

78

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

On a more technical note, we are noticing strong compressions in the Bollinger bands of gold on the daily chart, suggesting that a big move in gold may be imminent. The compression in the Bollinger bands is at its tightest since Oct’14, and by technical analysis theory a big breakout typically follows when the bands are compressed. If you recall, a huge movement occurred shortly after the tight compression in Oct’14, which was triggered by the Bank of Japan’s unexpected monetary easing in early November. That is not to say that the compression in Bollinger bands is a crystal ball for future events, but rather when the compression gets tight any seemingly innocuous event could result in a huge snowball effect on prices.

Source: PFPL / Bloomberg

Phone: (65)-65338017 Email: [email protected] Source: Reuters / Phillip Futures

Report Written By: Howie Lee Rep No. : LKH300220842 Email : [email protected]

The main question is perhaps if the breakout would lead to gold rallying or declining. That will depend a lot on the US nonfarm payrolls tonight, and given that it has posted exceptional results in the past three months we are inclined to believe a stellar number would be announced again. Strong NFPs may send gold falling sharply and swiftly, possibly to $1,180 followed by a slight “dead cat bounce”. Any number above 250K would likely have this effect. However, statistically there is also a good chance that NFPs may disappoint tonight, as employers take a break from hiring activity after three solid months of increasing headcount. If NFPs come in below 230K, we may see gold rally to $1,230. Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.

Gold Daily – 6 March 2015

30min Spot Gold Chart

Source: PFPL / Reuters

Daily Spot Gold Chart

Source: PFPL / Reuters

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Gold Daily – 6 March 2015

Key Economic Releases Date

Time

Economic Releases

Survey

Prior

Actual

21:30 21:30 21:30 22:45 23:00 21:15 3:00 21:30 21:30 21:30 23:00 21:30 21:30 21:30 21:30 21:30

Personal Income PCE Core MoM PCE Core YoY Markit US Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing ADP Employment Change U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Unit Labor Costs Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Factory Orders Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings MoM Average Hourly Earnings YoY Labor Force Participation Rate

Jan Jan Jan Feb F Feb Feb

0.40% 0.10% 1.30% 54.3 53 218K

0.30% 0.00% 1.30% 54.3 53.5 213K

0.30% 0.10% 1.30% 55.1 52.9 212K

4Q F 1-Feb 1-Feb Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb

3.40% 295K 2390K 0.20% 235K 5.60% 0.20% 2.10% --

2.70% 313K 2401K -3.40% 257K 5.70% 0.50% 2.20% 62.90%

4.10% 320K 2421K -0.20% ------

15:00 15:00 17:30 17:30 17:30 20:00 20:00 17:30

Nationwide House PX MoM Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI BOE Asset Purchase Target Bank of England Bank Rate BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths

Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar 1-Mar Feb

0.30% 6.20% 53.3 59 57.5 375B 0.50% --

0.30% 6.80% 53 59.1 57.2 375B 0.50% 2.50%

-0.10% 5.70% 54.1 60.1 56.7 375B 0.50% --

17:00 18:00 18:00 18:00 18:00 18:00 20:45 20:45 20:45 18:00 18:00

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Unemployment Rate CPI Estimate YoY CPI Core YoY PPI MoM PPI YoY ECB Main Refinancing Rate ECB Deposit Facility Rate ECB Marginal Lending Facility GDP SA QoQ GDP SA YoY

Feb F Jan Feb Feb A Jan Jan 1-Mar 1-Mar 1-Mar 4Q P 4Q P

51.1 11.40% -0.50% 0.60% -0.70% -3.00% 0.05% -0.20% 0.30% 0.30% 0.90%

51.1 11.40% -0.60% -1.00% -2.70% 0.05% -0.20% 0.30% 0.30% 0.90%

51 11.20% -0.003 0.60% -0.90% -3.40% 0.05% -0.20% 0.30% ---

16:55 15:00 15:00 15:00 15:00

Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Factory Orders MoM Factory Orders WDA YoY Industrial Production SA MoM Industrial Production WDA YoY

Feb F Jan Jan Jan Jan

50.9 -1.00% 2.60% 0.50% -0.20%

50.9 4.20% 3.40% 0.10% -0.70%

51.1 -3.90% -0.10% ---

9:35 7:50 7:50

Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Monetary Base YoY Monetary Base End of period

Feb F Feb Feb

----

51.5 37.40% ¥278.6T

51.6 36.70% ¥278.9T

US

03/02/2015 03/02/2015 03/02/2015 03/02/2015 03/02/2015 03/04/2015 03/05/2015 03/05/2015 03/05/2015 03/05/2015 03/05/2015 03/06/2015 03/06/2015 03/06/2015 03/06/2015 03/06/2015 UK

03/02/2015 03/02/2015 03/02/2015 03/03/2015 03/04/2015 03/05/2015 03/05/2015 03/06/2015 Eurozone

03/02/2015 03/02/2015 03/02/2015 03/02/2015 03/03/2015 03/03/2015 03/05/2015 03/05/2015 03/05/2015 03/06/2015 03/06/2015 Germany

03/02/2015 03/05/2015 03/05/2015 03/06/2015 03/06/2015 Japan

03/02/2015 03/03/2015 03/03/2015 China

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Gold Daily – 6 March 2015

03/02/2015 03/08/2015 03/08/2015 03/08/2015 03/08/2015 03/08/2015 03/08/2015

9:45

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Trade Balance Exports YoY Imports YoY Trade Balance CNY Exports YoY CNY Imports YoY CNY

Feb F Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb

50.1 $4.00B 9.60% -9.90% ----

50.1 $60.03B -3.30% -19.90% 366.90B -3.20% -19.70%

50.7 -------

Source: Bloomberg

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Gold Desk

Financial Desk

Phone :(65)-6534 3183 Email: [email protected]

Phone: (65)-65311539

Forex Desk Phone: (65)- 65367200/65337202 Email: [email protected]

Howie Lee

Howie Lee

Howie Lee

Rep No.: LKH300220842 Email: [email protected]

Rep No.: LKH300220842 Email: [email protected]

Rep No.: LKH300220842 Email: [email protected]

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Gold Daily – 6 March 2015

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Gold Daily – 6 March 2015

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