Effect of the 2009 MaddenJulian Oscillation on the 2010 Polar Stratosphere Lisa Neef1, Katja Matthes1, Sebastian Wahl1, Kevin Raeder2 1GEOMAR
Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel 2National Center for Atmospheric Research
Intraseasonal Predictability with Stratospheric Teleconnections
Butler et al. 2014
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
MJO effect on AO/NAO Stratospheric Pathway MJO Phase Frequency preceeding SSWs
Z500 Anomalies 3-5 Weeks after MJO 3
Garfinkel et al. 2012
MJO phase 3 precedes SSW by 3-5 Weeks, because this phase influences the region most strongly associated with PW1 driving. Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Winter 2009/10 Extreme negative AO/NAO
Record cold outbreaks
Major SSW in late Jan
Wind
Temp
Jung et al. 2011
Cohen et al. 2010
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Ayarzaguena et al. 2014
Winter 2009/10 Extreme negative AO/NAO
Oct-Dec MJO Mostly Phase 1-3
Major SSW in late Jan
Wind
Temp
Jung et al. 2011
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Ayarzaguena et al. 2014
Winter 2009/10 Jung et al. 2011: Nudging different regions to reanalysis
Can’t replicate the observed PNA/NAO pattern.
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Constraining Tropical Variations Using Data Assimilation
DART is an Ensemble Kalman Filter that wraps around dynamical models and constrains them with data. Anderson et al. 2009 Raeder et al. 2012
DART-WACCM
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Constraining Tropical Variations Using Data Assimilation Obs from radiosondes, aircraft, COSMIC
40-member ensemble of WACCM 1 Oct 2009 Image: Jeff Anderson, NCAR
6-hourly updates (u,v,T,q,ps)
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
40-member ensemble of WACCM 31 Mar 2009
Constrained WACCM Ensembles Winter 2009/10 No Assimilation + No + NoAssimilation Assimilation Observed SSTs + Observed ObservedSSTs SSTs
PDF of winter states given El Nino conditions
No Assimilation + No Assimilation + Assimilation 30S-30N Observed SSTs Observed SSTs + Observed SSTs
PDF of winter states given El Nino conditions + MJO
No Assimilation + No Assimilation + Assimilation Global Observed SSTs Observed SSTs + Observed SSTs
PDF of winter states given everything we know (like reanalysis)
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
MJO in the Unconstrained Ensemble MJO Oct-Dec 2009
Upwelling Longwave Flux at Top of Model (W/m2)
5 Nov (MJO 2) 10 Nov (MJO 3)
19 Nov (MJO 4) 21 Dec (MJO 4)
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
MJO in the Constrained Ensemble MJO Oct-Dec 2009
Upwelling Longwave Flux at Top of Model (W/m2)
5 Nov (MJO 2) 10 Nov (MJO 3)
19 Nov (MJO 4) 21 Dec (MJO 4)
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
AO/NAO in the Constrained Ensemble Global DA
NOVEMBER Z500 Anomaly With respect to NoDA ensemble (which has El Nino!)
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Tropical DA
AO/NAO in the Constrained Ensemble Global DA
DECEMBER Z500 Anomaly With respect to NoDA ensemble (which has El Nino!)
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Tropical DA
AO/NAO in the Constrained Ensemble Global DA
JANUARY Z500 Anomaly With respect to NoDA ensemble (which has El Nino!)
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Tropical DA
AO/NAO in the Constrained Ensemble Global DA
FEBRUARY Z500 Anomaly With respect to NoDA ensemble (which has El Nino!)
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Tropical DA
AO/NAO in the Constrained Ensemble NoDA („El Nino Only“)
Tropical DA
Inverse Z500 polar cap
Global DA
Constraining the tropics increases probability of negative AO. Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
SSW in the Constrained Ensemble NoDA „El Nino Only“
Tropical DA
Global DA
Z 30-3hPa polar cap
Constraining the tropics increases chances of the February SSW. Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Summary & Outlook This study
Garfinkel et al. 2012
22-33 days after MJO 3
1-20 d before SSW
Feb 2010 anomaly wrt El Nino Climatology
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Feb 2010 „tropical component“
Summary & Outlook Evaluating winter 2009/10 by constraining only the tropics to data using DART-WACCM.
Questions remaining… How does tropical DA constrain PW injection into the stratosphere?
Can we verify the mechanism of Garfinkel et al. (2012)?
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Tropical dynamics affect: AO/NAO
SSW
Effect is separate from the effect of El Nino. What about other winters?
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
References
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Winter 2009/10
Wang & Chen 2010
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Constraining subseasonal tropical variability with data assimilation Relative Humidity from COSMIC
Assimilate this and other data into the tropics of an atmosphere model
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
DART-WACCM Observations
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
DART-WACCM vs. ERA-Interim COSMIC
DART-WACCM
ERA-Interim WACCM free
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
Madden Julian Oscillation
Image by F. Martin www.climate.gov
Image by A. Matthews envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo.html
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
MJO effect on AO/NAO Short Timescale MJO phase frequency for +/AO tendency
L‘Heureux & Higgins 2008
Z500 Anomaly 40-60N following MJO phase 3
Cassou 2008
Z500 Anomaly following MJO phase 7 with 10-day lag
Lin et al. 2009
MJO phase 7 leads to a negative AO roughly 1-2 weeks later.
ENSO 2009/10
Global SST anomalies (C), NOAA (Buchan et al. 2014)
Effect of the MJO on 2009/10 Winter | 28 June 2015
MJO effect on AO/NAO Short Timescale Study
Result
MJO phase related to NAO-
Cassou 2008
MJO phases XX excite PWs that break in extratropical troposphere.
K8. K9. Page 3 of 56. arial full mermaid.pdf. arial full mermaid.pdf. Open. Extract. Open with. Sign In. Main menu. Displaying arial full mermaid.pdf. Page 1 of 56.
correction model with quarterly data for the Euro Area is estimated to test whether the .... The model. 2.1 The long-run relationship. The starting point for deriving the Pstar model is the quantity equation (all vari- ables are expressed as logs):.
Feb 21, 2017 - Erg ot a. = q, r q). (,l ffiffi xwfl) ffiml o o. N. N tu. @ o lo. \l ! \,1 .{. 90. @. (rl. (o o o s^, o. (o ! !I. (,r ! @. (,r. TU. (Jl. \t i,oo o. (rl. (n. (o. \| ! o o. @. N)s o).
21 Feb 2017 - FgdF o. 9 o o o o o b o o o o o o o o o o. I. O o o. I o o o o o o o o. I o o o o o b o o o o o. P. O o o o o b e= qi. ()o. (D= cL a- o o o. P o. {. N b o o o o ffi o o o o o. CL. 6'. I o o o o o)o. 8A. Erg ot a. = q, r q). (,l ffiffi x
May 21, 2009 - dissipation from the edge of the substrate 9. For solving this ..... through Works such as delivery inspections in the manufac tures' factories and ...
Loading⦠Page 1. Whoops! There was a problem loading more pages. Retrying... FR-Bijoux tribaux.pdf. FR-Bijoux tribaux.pdf. Open. Extract. Open with. Sign In.
translate into (i) support for large amount of heterogeneous spatio-temporal data (to provide a convincing virtual environment, approximating the complexity of ...
program which encourages kids and their families to get active, get outdoors and get healthy. âThe program ... resort company at Custer State Park. The rental ...
We would like to inform the field, that after the conduct of the initial screening and selection of potential Learning Resource Evaluators (LREs) for the different ...
May 21, 2009 - ing layer 45 make an angle over 90 degrees against the vector of stress Within ... that pressure ranging from 1 MPa to 2 MPa is mechanically.
Me salió un chichón en la ................................................ después del golpe. Page 3 of 4. Trabadas fr-fl.pdf. Trabadas fr-fl.pdf. Open. Extract. Open with. Sign In.
annual data that covers four distinct eras with different international monetary regimes. 1 .... For an analytical paper, the costs associated with these disadvantages weigh ... variety of indicators, such as employment and department store sales.
analysis (CEA) tradition, all items produced by learners are traced to a grid of error ... use a tree-tagger designed for L1 Italian also for learner data on condition ...
This article summarizes the main research that has been conducted on international. franchising in North ... Price, product, ... networks in Germany: McDonald's ® (fast food restaurants), OBI (retail superstores), Aufina ... Displaying 45.pdf.
X:night of vengeance.Thisalongwith the. fact that which forevermoreshall ... The placeto stand ebook epic pdf.Army ofTwoTM.Campioni del. mondo.Lesexperts fr ...
Pr. 153 Zero current detection time setting range "0 to 10s". ⢠Check first when you have a trouble. Page 3 of 574. FR-F700.pdf. FR-F700.pdf. Open. Extract.
Usage of a residual current device. Troubleshooting. Thermal Relay Type Name. D 05/2012 pdp-gbr Page 3-23 Safety stop when operating multiple frequency ...
