HOLD
High growth somewhat priced in
TP: Bt46.00
► A leading multinational pharmaceutical company with coverage for branded products in as many as 33 countries. ► Mega We Care is expected to be a key growth engine going forward, but doubling business target will be a challenge. ► We project five-year (2014-2019E) normalized profit CAGR at 19%. ► Initiate coverage with a HOLD recommendation. Our 12M target price is Bt46.00, offering limited upside of 2.2% from the current price of Bt45.00 (16 Nov).
Closing price: Bt45.00 Upside/downside 2.2% Sector Paid-up shares (shares mn) Market capitalization (Bt mn) Free float (%) 12-mth daily avg. turnover (Bt mn) 12-mth trading range (Bt)
Commerce 865 38,936 38.50 119.79 45.50/21.30
Major shareholders (%) Unistretch Limited Mr. Vivek Dhawan Mindo Asia Investment Limited Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec Revenue (Btmn) Norm. profit (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) Norm. EPS (Bt) EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) DPS (Bt) Div. yield (%) ROE (%)
50.1 5.3 5.0
2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 8,810 9,553 10,372 11,249 885 1,098 1,197 1,328 795 1,028 1,197 1,328 1.02 1.27 1.38 1.54 0.92 1.19 1.38 1.54 49.0 24.1 9.0 10.9 14.3 29.4 16.4 10.9 40.0 30.9 26.6 23.9 6.8 6.1 5.4 4.9 0.47 0.63 0.73 0.81 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.2 17.6 20.7 21.4 21.3
Source: SETSMART, AWS
Thailand Research Department Ms. Veeraya Rattanaworatip License, No. 86645 Tel: 02 680 5042
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A leading multinational pharmaceutical company MEGA is a well-known multinational pharmaceutical company that has established its reputation in the industry over more than three decades. The company has a presence for its branded products in around 33 countries around the world and is engaged in three business segments, Mega We Care branded products business, Maxxcare distribution business, and OEM business. Mega We Care contributed the majority of revenues during 9M17 at around 51%, followed by Maxxcare and OEM business. Doubling business growth may not be that straightforward We expect Mega We Care to act as MEGA’s main growth engine going forward, following its strategy of expanding existing underpenetrated developing markets as well as launching more products. According to the company’s five-year target, it aims to double its business in Mega We Care and Maxxcare by 2019. However, this may not be simple with organic growth alone. Additionally, there is pressure from the dull growth of Maxxcare, which has been weighed down by the slowdown in Myanmar. We project five-year (2014-2019E) revenue CAGR for Mega We Care and Maxxcare at only 12% and 3%, respectively. Our forecast calls for five-year normalized profit CAGR at 19%. Initiate coverage with a HOLD call Our 12M target price of Bt46.00 offers limited upside of 2.2% from the current price of Bt45.00 (16 Nov). The target price is based on the discounted cash flow method, which assumes WACC of 8% and terminal growth of 3%. Despite future growth potential, we believe this has already been somewhat reflected by the recent rally in the share price. Hence, we initiate our coverage on MEGA with a recommendation of HOLD.
1
Leading multinational pharmaceutical company Mega Lifesciences PCL (MEGA) has established its reputation in the health and wellness industry since 1982. The company first began as an OEM supplier before expanding to its own branded products. Currently, MEGA’s business segments are composed of Mega We Care branded products business, Maxxcare distribution business, and OEM business. Its presence for branded products covers as many as 33 countries around the world. Mega We Care branded products can be categorized into the three categories; 1) nutraceutical products 2) prescription pharmaceutical products, and 3) over-the-counter products. Of the three, nutraceutical products or supplements account for the majority, at around 70% of sales, prescription medicines account for 25%, and OTC products account for 5%. Its products are mainly sold in developing countries and have gained a leading position in Southeast Asia and are expanding in Africa. As of 2016, the company had a combined 256 unique product formulations and 873 product registrations. Its top selling products include Nat C, Nat B, Enat, etc. (Figure 1). Figure 1: Mega We Care’s top selling products as of 2016
Source: Company data
Maxxcare distribution business involves marketing, selling, and distributing various branded pharmaceutical products and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) products, in which the former accounts for around 70% of the total segmental sales and the latter accounts for the rest. The company also distributes its own branded products. This business segment now mainly operates in three countries; Myanmar, Vietnam, and Cambodia. Last, OEM business is engaged in manufacturing nutraceutical, prescription pharmaceutical, and OTC products for third party customers. This is operated by its manufacturing factories in Thailand and Australia.
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2
Figure 2: Mega We Care and Maxxcare revenue by geography in 9M17 Mega We Care
Maxxcare 0.4%
8%
12.2%
13%
30.8%
56.6%
79%
Southeast Asia
Africa
Others
Myanmar
Vietnam
Cambodia
Others
Source: Company data
For 9M17, 51% of total revenue was contributed by Mega We Care, 44% by Maxxcare, and 5% by OEM business. The proportion of revenue from Maxxcare plummeted from 48% in 9M16 while that from Mega We Care rose from 47%. The picture changed from last year, mainly due to the slowdown in Maxxcare’s business in Myanmar, while Mega We Care maintained robust growth propelled by Southeast Asia and Africa. The increased Mega We Care revenue led to overall gross profit margin improving to 44.3% in 9M17 from 41.5% in 9M16. Figure 3: Revenue mix by segments in 9M17 5%
51%
44%
Mega We Care
Maxxcare
OEM
Source: Company data
Figure 4: Segmental gross margins
Source: Company data
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3
Mega We Care still a leading actor Mega We Care should continue to be MEGA’s key engine in the short to medium term, and the company aims to continue expanding its customer base in underpenetrated developed markets through new product launches as well as penetration into new markets. It also sees a not-yet-matured and high potential in all countries currently being operated, including Thailand, given the growing health awareness globally. MEGA normally launches 13-14 products a year. As of 6M17, it has approximately 65 products under registration and 50 products under development. According to its annual report, Euromonitor International forecast the consumer health industry’s retail value CAGR during 2016-2021 at a fair 3.1%, promising a steady expansion in the medium term. As mentioned, one of the supportive factors is the growing consciousness of health and fitness. This should bolster demand for nutraceutical products. Apart from that, we see healthcare as one of the four requisites of life while the increasing aging population in Thailand should be further positives to the company’s sales, especially in prescription pharmaceutical products and OTC products. Furthermore, MEGA expects the synergy resulting from its acquisition of Bio-Life Marketing, a leading Malaysian medicinal-supplement company, to be more pronounced next year or the year after onward. The main objective of the move is to increase its presence in Malaysia by expanding more sales channels for its existing products, adding Bio-Life’s product portfolio to MEGA’s existing product lines, as well as developing a wider range of supplements and other products. This should also help boost its growth in other countries, as Bio-Life is also present in Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. The new cooperative products are anticipated to be called Mega We Care BioLife. After the acquisition, the company’s total revenue contributed by Malaysia has risen to roughly 10% from 2% at the end of 2016. We expect this factor to be another driving force behind its growth going forward. Figure 5: Example of Bio-Life products
Source: Bio-Life
Meanwhile, its joint venture with MALEE, called Mega Malee Co., Ltd., is another potential. This JV is set up to operate new business in health and natural drinks as well as other products for markets in Thailand and overseas, aiming to tap into changing consumer behavior in caring more for their health. The focus during the initial phase would be ready-to-drinks products, and the first product will likely be launched during the first half of next year.
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4
Maxxcare could be an overhang Revenue contributed by Maxxcare tumbled to 44%, from 48% during the same time last year. This was mainly due to sluggish expansion in Myanmar, as well as a loss of one major principal there. The growth potential in Myanmar may stabilize around this level and may take time to recover. This is because despite high opportunities, Myanmar still stands at a juncture in its transformation and has many things to work on, especially infrastructure, including those related to healthcare. As Myanmar accounts for the majority of Maxxcare’s revenue, slow expansion there could be an overhang to MEGA’s overall performance while Mega We Care may not be able to immediately make up the loss.
Doubling business may be a challenging task MEGA has set a five-year plan (2014-2019) that targets to double the business of Mega We Care and Maxxcare by 2019 while OEM business may not be a lucrative driver given its marginal contribution. This will be a challenging task. For Mega We Care, we estimate FY19 revenue from this segment to surge around 77% from FY14 level, equivalent to five-year CAGR of 12%, so it may be difficult to double this business with organic growth alone. For Maxxcare, we estimate FY19 revenue to expand 15% compared to FY14, equivalent to five-year CAGR of just 3%. One of the drags would be the slowdown in Myanmar. Another drag would be the uncertainty in principal’s policy, meaning the control does not solely depend on MEGA itself, but instead largely depends on the principal’s policy, such as marketing, pricing, etc. Other disruptions include economy and politics of the countries it operates. As such, all these factors leave the goal of doubling the business not as straightforward as expected. Figure 6: Segmental revenue during 2014-2019E 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2014
2015
2016
Mega We Care
2017E Maxxcare
2018E
2019E
OEM
Source: Company data, AWS estimates
4Q17 normalized profit to follow the wave of high season We estimate MEGA’s 4Q17 normalized profit to come in at Bt323mn, up 7.2% QoQ and 6.6% YoY. The QoQ growth should get a boost from the fourth quarter being the peak spending season. Meanwhile, the expected YoY rise should correspond with a larger range of products, customer base expansion, and the inclusion of income from Bio-Life. We expect the Mega We Care business segment to still be a main driver for the company’s overall growth, underpinned by Southeast Asia and Africa markets. Our forecast calls for FY17 normalized profit to grow 24.1% YoY to Bt1.1bn.
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5
Figure 7: MEGA’s 4Q17 results preview Unit: Btmn
4Q16
3Q17
4Q17F
%QoQ
%YoY
2016
2017F
%YoY
9M17
Total revenue
2,595
2,407
2,655
10.3%
2.3%
8,810
9,553
8.4%
6,899
Cost of sales
(1,489)
(1,327)
(1,501)
13.1%
0.8%
(5,123)
(5,341)
4.2%
(3,840)
Gross profit
1,106
1,080
1,154
6.9%
4.3%
3,687
4,212
14.3%
3,058
SG&A expenses
(754)
(743)
(773)
4.0%
2.5%
(2,674)
(2,947)
10.2%
(2,174)
Operating profit
352
337
381
13.3%
8.3%
1,013
1,265
24.9%
884
7
9
10
10.5%
42.5%
32
37
16.5%
27
Other income Finance expenses
(8)
(6)
(5)
-6.3%
-26.9%
(22)
(25)
13.8%
(20)
Pre-tax profit
352
340
386
13.5%
9.7%
1,022
1,277
24.9%
891
Normalized profit
303
301
323
7.2%
6.6%
885
1,098
24.1%
775
Net profit
295
246
300
21.9%
1.7%
795
1,028
29.4%
728
Normalized EPS (Bt)
0.35
0.35
0.37
7.2%
6.6%
1.02
1.27
24.1%
0.90
EPS (Bt)
0.34
0.28
0.35
21.9%
1.7%
0.92
1.19
29.4%
0.84
Gross margin (%)
42.6%
44.9%
43.5%
-139bps
85bps
41.8%
44.1%
225bps
44.3%
EBITDA margin (%)
15.6%
15.9%
16.1%
24bps
50bps
13.6%
15.4%
179bps
14.8%
Normalized profit margin (%)
11.7%
12.5%
12.2%
-35bps
49bps
10.0%
11.5%
146bps
11.2%
Source: Company data, AWS estimates
Figure 8: Normalized profit outlook during 2014-2019E 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Normalized profit
2014 564
2015 594
2016 885
2017E 1,098
2018E 1,197
2019E 1,328
Source: Company data, AWS estimates
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6
Initiate coverage with a HOLD recommendation Our 12M target price of Bt46.00 offers just 2% upside from the current price of Bt45.00 (16 Nov). Our target price is based on the discounted cash flow approach, assuming WACC of 8% and terminal growth of 3%. Although we agree consumer health and the overall healthcare industry, as well as MEGA’s future opportunities, still have much room to explore, at least in the medium term, we reckon the share price has somewhat priced in such potential, as evidenced by the rally of 78% YTD. Further, in our opinion, we believe it will be challenging for the company to double its business without help from inorganic growth. Taking these underlying factors into consideration, we initiate coverage with a HOLD recommendation.
Possible risks and concerns Possible risks and concerns that might affect MEGA are: 1. 2. 3. 4.
Lackluster global economy may impede consumers’ purchasing power, hence impacting the company’s profits. Unsuccessful new product introduction, as well as the failure to launch products in a timely manner may affect its market share. Failure to maintain Maxxcare’s principals, as well as uncertainty in their policies may adversely affect its business. Other factors, such as political instability in the countries it operates, could also cause the fluctuation in its performance.
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7
Income Statement (Btmn) Year to 31 Dec Total revenue Cost of sales Gross profit SG&A expenses Operating profit Other income Finance expenses Pre-tax profit Corporate tax Minority interest Normalized profit Extra items Net profit Normalized EPS (Bt) EPS (Bt) Statement of Financial Position (Btmn) Year to 31 Dec Current assets Cash & current investments Trade account receivables Inventories Other current assets Total current assets Non-current assets PPE Other assets Total assets Current liabilities Trade account payables Current portion Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Non-current liabilities LT borrowings Other liabilities Total liabilities Paid-up capital Share premium Retained earnings Other components Total equity of the company Minority interest Total equity Cash Flow Statement (Btmn) Year to 31 Dec Pretax profit Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Others Operating cash flow CAPEX Others Investing cash flow Net borrowings Dividend payment Others Financing cash flow Net change in cash
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2015 7,945 (4,538) 3,406 (2,718) 689 50 (13) 726 (132) 0 594 102 696 0.69 0.80
2016 8,810 (5,123) 3,687 (2,674) 1,013 32 (22) 1,022 (138) (0) 885 (90) 795 1.02 0.92
2017E 9,553 (5,341) 4,212 (2,947) 1,265 37 (25) 1,277 (179) (0) 1,098 (70) 1,028 1.27 1.19
2018E 10,372 (5,724) 4,648 (3,205) 1,443 44 (27) 1,460 (263) (0) 1,197 0 1,197 1.38 1.38
2019E 11,249 (6,120) 5,129 (3,487) 1,642 50 (31) 1,660 (332) (0) 1,328 0 1,328 1.54 1.54
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
2019E
1,467 2,263 2,067 370 6,167
1,217 2,233 1,889 350 5,689
1,743 2,388 2,054 416 6,601
2,188 2,593 2,202 495 7,478
3,004 2,744 2,267 451 8,465
1,029 414 7,610
1,152 1,100 7,941
1,226 964 8,791
1,252 1,146 9,877
1,279 1,146 10,891
1,603 91 1,405 3,099
1,519 9 1,625 3,153
1,618 9 1,802 3,430
1,684 9 2,029 3,721
1,800 9 2,289 4,098
84 93 3,275 433 2,138 1,912 (148) 4,335 (0) 4,335
7 102 3,261 433 2,138 2,300 (191) 4,680 0 4,680
2 112 3,544 433 2,138 2,862 (185) 5,247 0 5,247
102 124 3,947 433 2,138 3,514 (156) 5,929 0 5,929
102 138 4,338 433 2,138 4,208 (226) 6,553 0 6,553
2015 828 145 (276) (89) 609 (139) (45) (184) 151 (355) (43) (247) 178
2016 933 152 263 (87) 1,260 (237) (480) (717) (49) (407) (18) (473) 70
2017E 1,207 165 (143) (168) 1,060 (239) 6 (232) 29 (467) 7 (432) 396
2018E 1,460 182 (199) (251) 1,192 (207) (300) (507) 159 (545) 29 (357) 328
2019E 1,660 198 143 (319) 1,682 (225) (135) (360) 63 (635) (70) (641) 681
8
Income Statement (Btmn) Year to 31 Dec Total revenue Cost of sales Gross profit SG&A expenses Operating profit Other income Finance expenses Pre-tax profit Corporate tax Minority interest Normalized profit Extra items Net profit Normalized EPS (Bt) EPS (Bt) Key Financial Ratios Year to 31 Dec Sales growth (%) Normalized profit growth (%) Net profit growth (%) Normalized EPS growth (%) EPS growth (%)
3Q16 2,176 (1,280) 895 (683) 212 9 (7) 214 (26) 0 188 (20) 168 0.22 0.19
4Q16 2,595 (1,489) 1,106 (754) 352 7 (8) 352 (49) (0) 303 (8) 295 0.35 0.34
1Q17 2,096 (1,199) 898 (689) 209 9 (7) 211 (45) (0) 166 26 192 0.19 0.22
2Q17 2,395 (1,315) 1,081 (742) 339 8 (7) 340 (32) 0 308 (17) 291 0.36 0.34
3Q17 2,407 (1,327) 1,080 (743) 337 9 (6) 340 (39) (0) 301 (55) 246 0.35 0.28
2015 2.8 5.2 27.0 5.2 27.0
2016 10.9 49.0 14.3 49.0 14.3
2017E 8.4 24.1 29.4 24.1 29.4
2018E 8.6 9.0 16.4 9.0 16.4
2019E 8.5 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9
Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Normalized profit margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
42.9 11.1 9.3 7.5 8.8 18.2
41.8 13.6 11.9 10.0 9.0 13.5
44.1 15.4 13.6 11.5 10.8 14.0
44.8 16.1 14.3 11.5 11.5 18.0
45.6 16.7 15.0 11.8 11.8 20.0
ROA (%) ROE (%)
9.7 16.7
10.2 17.6
12.3 20.7
12.8 21.4
12.8 21.3
P/E (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) Main Assumptions Year to 31 Dec Mega We Care revenue growth (%) Maxxcare revenue growth (%) OEM revenue growth (%)
45.7 7.3 1.1
40.0 6.8 1.3
30.9 6.1 1.7
26.6 5.4 2.0
23.9 4.9 2.2
2015 7.2 (3.6) 23.3
2016 8.6 15.8 (7.6)
2017E 15.0 0.5 20.0
2018E 15.0 1.0 9.0
2019E 14.0 1.0 9.0
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9
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Score 90 – 100 80 – 89 70 – 79 60 – 69 50 – 59 Below 50
Range Number of Logo
No logo given
Description Excellent Very Good Good Satisfactory Pass N/A
Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator 2016 Companies that have declared their intention to join CAC 2S A ABC ABICO ACAP AEC AF AGE AH AI AIE AIRA ALUCON AMARIN AMATA ANAN AOT AP
APCO APCS APURE AQUA AS ASIA ASIAN ASIMAR ASK BCH BEAUTY BFIT BH BIGC BJCHI BKD BLAND BROCK
BROOK BRR BSBM BTNC CEN CGH CHARAN CHO CHOTI CHOW CI CM COL CPALL CPF CPL CSC CSR
CSS DELTA DNA EA ECF EE EFORL EPCO ESTAR EVER FC FER FNS FPI FSMART FVC GC GEL
GFPT GIFT GLOBAL GPSC GREEN GUNKUL HMPRO HOTPOT ICHI IEC IFS ILINK INET INOX INSURE IRC J JAS
JMART JMT JTS JUBILE JUTHA K KASET KBS KC KCAR KSL KTECH KYE L&E LALIN LPN LRH LTX
LVT M MAKRO MALEE MBAX MC MCOT MEGA MFEC MIDA MILL MJD MK ML MPG MTLS NBC NCH
AKP AMANAH ASP AYUD BAFS BANPU BAY BBL BCP
BKI BLA BTS BWG CENTEL CFRESH CIMBT CNS CPI
CPN CSL DCC DEMCO DIMET DRT DTAC DTC EASTW
ECL EGCO ERW FE FSS GBX GCAP GLOW HANA
HTC ICC IFEC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE KGI
KKP KTB KTC LANNA LHBANK LHK MBK MBKET MFC
MINT MONO MOONG MSC MTI NKI NSI OCEAN PB
AAV ACC ADAM AEONTS AFC AHC AIT AJ AJD AKR ALLA ALT AMA AMATAV AMC APX AQ ARIP ARROW ASEFA ASN ATP30
AU AUCT BA BAT-3K BCPG BDMS BEC BEM BGT BIG BIZ BJC BLISS BM BOL BPP BR BRC BSM BTC BTW BUI
CBG CCET CCN CCP CGD CHEWA CHG CHUO CIG CITY CK CKP CMO CMR CNT COLOR COM7 COMAN CPH CPR CRANE CSP
CTW CWT DAII DCON DCORP DRACO DSGT DTCI EARTH EASON EIC EKH EMC EPG ESSO F&D FANCY FMT FN FOCUS FORTH GENCO
GJS GL GLAND GOLD GRAMMY GRAND GSTEL GTB GYT HARN HFT HPT HTECH HYDRO IHL IRCP IT ITD ITEL JCT JSP JWD
KAMART KCM KDH KIAT KKC KOOL KTIS KWC KWG LDC LEE LH LIT LOXLEY LPH LST MACO MAJOR MANRIN MATCH MATI MAX
M-CHAI MCS MDX METCO MODERN MPIC NC NEP NETBAY NEW NEWS NFC NOBLE NOK NPK NWR NYT OHTL OISHI ORI OTO PAE
NCL NDR NINE NMG NNCL NPP NTV NUSA OCC OGC PACE PAF PCA PCSGH PDG PDI PIMO PK
PLANB PLAT PRANDA PREB PRG PRINC PSTC PYLON QH RML ROBINS ROCK ROH ROJNA RP RWI SAMCO SANKO
SAUCE SC SCCC SCN SEAOIL SE-ED SENA SGP SITHAI SKR SMIT SMK SORKON SPACK SPALI SPCG SPPT SPRC
SR SRICHA STA STANLY SUPER SUSCO SYMC SYNEX SYNTEC TAE TAKUNI TASCO TBSP TEAM TFG TFI THAI TIC
TICON TIP TKT TLUXE TMC TMI TMILL TMT TPA TPP TRT TRU TRUE TSE TSI TSTE TTW TU
TVD TVO TVT TWPC U UBIS UKEM UNIQ UOBKH UREKA UWC VGI VIBHA VNG VNT WAVE WHA WICE
WIIK WIN XO ZMICO
PTG PTT PTTEP PTTGC Q-CON QLT RATCH S&J SABINA
SAT SCB SCC SCG SINGER SIS SMPC SNC SNP
SPC SPI SSF SSI SSSC SVI TCAP TCMC TF
TGCI THANI THCOM THRE THREL TIPCO TISCO TMB TMD
TNITY TNL TOG TOP TPC TPCORP TSC TSTH TTCL
TVI WACOAL
RCL RICH RICHY RJH RPC RS S S11 SAFARI SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SAWAD SAWANG SCI SCP SEAFCO SELIC SF SFP
SGF SHANG SIAM SIM SIMAT SIRI SLP SMART SMM SMT SOLAR SPA SPG SPORT SPVI SQ SSC SST STAR STEC STHAI STPI
SUC SUTHA SVH SVOA SWC T TACC TAPAC TC TCB TCC TCCC TCJ TCOAT TFD TGPRO TH THANA THE THIP THL TIW
TK TKN TKS TM TMW TNDT TNH TNP TNPC TNR TOPP TPAC TPBI TPCH TPIPL TPOLY TR TRC TRITN TRUBB TSF TSR
TTA TTI TTL TTTM TUCC TWP TWZ TYCN UAC UEC UMI UMS UP UPA UPF UPOIC UT UTP UV UVAN VARO VI
VIH VPO VTE WG WINNER WORK WORLD WP WR YCI YNP YUASA
Companies certified by CAC PE PG PHOL PM PPP PPS PR PSL PT
N/A PAP PATO PERM PF PICO PJW PL PLE PMTA POLAR POMPUI POST PPM PRAKIT PRECHA PRIN PRO PSH PTL QTC RAM RCI
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