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SUNDAY HINDUSTAN TIMES, NEW D ELHI MAY 1 3, 2018

chanakya

PART­TIME POLITICIAN TO PM ASPIRANT ahul Gandhi has always had the image of being a reluctant leader. He is 47, but Chanakya has heard enough people in Delhi’s political circles still referring to him as a “boy”, although this may well have more to do with the relative age of Indian politicians in general than any disrespect for the man. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is 67, a full two decades older. In general, Indian politicians aren’t supposed to hit their stride till they are well into their 50s. Bharatiya Janata Party president Amit Shah, at 53, is considered young. Gandhi also has the image of a part-time politician, perhaps because of his frequent (although not as frequent as his political rivals would have us believe) holidays or breaks from work. It has become important for a political leader to be 24x7x365, especially in the context of the BJP, an always-on political party which approaches every election, small and big, with similar intensity. The most energetic manifestation of this, of course, is the prime minister, who remains the BJP’s ace in the hole That was then, though. For several months now, starting from before the Gujarat assembly elections, Gandhi

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has seemed a different person. Some BJP leaders attribute this to a tendency among “liberals”, the preferred four-letter word of the Modi administration, and “liberal media” to talk up a rival to Modi ahead of the general elections in 2019. Other, more neutral political analysts, put it down to growing fatigue with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in the run-up to the polls. And, of course, a few link it to actual, real, on-the-ground change in Gandhi. Some members of the Congress believe the second theory is closer to the truth. One of Gandhi’s associates told Chankaya, “Rahul hasn’t changed; you guys have”. But something had changed in Gandhi. His campaigns in Gujarat and Karnataka were intense. He addressed 30 rallies in Gujarat, scores of smaller meetings, and visited 12 temples; in Karnataka, he had addressed over 100 rallies and meetings till the end of campaigning on Thursday. He has spent much of the past few months (24 days across eight legs) in the state. Meanwhile, his and his party’s messaging has improved, becoming more uniform and cogent, and largely lacking in the kind of gaffes that did neither party nor man any good in the past. And unlike in the past, the Congress seems to have learned how to use local factors to its

Illustration: ANIMESH DEBNATH

advantage. In Gujarat, this took the form of the H-A-J partnership with Patidar leader Hardik Patel, backward classes leader Alpesh Thakor, and Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani. In Karnataka, this has taken the form of respecting the strengths of local leader, Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah. Finally, Gandhi’s party seems to have got its head around how modern-day campaigns, online and offline, are run. On May 8, Gandhi indicated, for the first time, his willingness to be prime minister. For 10 years, between 2004 and 2014, and especially after the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance’s surprise win in 2009, which many attributed to him, Gandhi steadfastly refused

sundaysentiments KARAN THAPAR

KARNATAKA COULD HOLD THE KEY TO 2019 POLLS he voting in Karnataka is over and we’re now awaiting the results day after tomorrow. If the polls are correct, neither the Congress nor the BJP will get a majority though the former could be marginally ahead. In this situation the critical question is: what will the JD(S) do? If HD Deve Gowda adheres to his stand not to support either and, instead, sit in opposition, we would have an impasse. Then anything could be possible. Siddaramaiah may be forced to step aside, splits could be engineered in the two big parties and, of course, there would be a lot of talk of money changing hands. But if Deve Gowda is truly implacable, we could even head towards a period of President’s rule followed by another election. So, instead of a calm after the electoral storm, the real turbulence may be

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about to begin. A solution may neither be easy nor swift but it could be surprising. However, nothing that happens in Karnataka will diminish the bigger question that’s already staring India in the face: what will happen at the national elections in one year’s time? Most people believe two outcomes can be credibly discounted. First, the Congress will not get a majority and it’s hard to believe Rahul Gandhi could emerge as prime minister with the support of allies. Second, the BJP is unlikely to win as many seats as in 2014. Its losses in UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Haryana are unlikely to be made up by gains in the North East, Bengal and Odisha. The key question is how many seats will the party lose? If the BJP retains around 250, any government it forms will be more dependent on allies than

bigpicture IAN BREMMER

IN TRUMP­KIM DEAL, CHINA IS THE BIGGEST WINNER hat if Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un really do make a deal? There is plenty of reason for scepticism. Why would Kim surrender the nuclear weapons programme he has worked so hard to expand? Why would the US withdraw its 28,500 troops? How can Kim build a sustainable North Korean economy that relieves him of the need to blackmail his way to financial help? There are other unanswered questions. But it’s possible that a meeting between Trump and Kim will produce an agreement that represents a major step forward. With a pledge to continue the discussion of “denuclearisation,” perhaps Kim will agree to a permanent suspension of tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles, removing the threat that North Korea can launch a nuclear attack on the US mainland. In exchange, Trump might pledge to draw down the total number of US soldiers on the peninsula.

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North Korea then welcomes inspectors to take stock of its nuclear assets. Trump gives his blessing to a peace deal between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, and promises the US will not invade the North so long as it complies with a test ban and cooperates with inspectors. North Korea would be an obvious winner. Even without an active nuclear programme, the DPRK has enough conventional military firepower to keep its leverage in future negotiations. Kim has already improved his and his country’s image with South Koreans, particularly young people, who feel less natural kinship than their parents and grandparents with their neighbours. A deal with Trump would intensify that effect. The greater test will come when Kim begins to experiment with an opening of the North Korean economy, and therefore the country, to outsiders. Moon would be a clear winner for as long as the deal holds. He knows that

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Former PM and JD(S) president HD Deve Gowda, Bengaluru ARIJIT SEN/HT

the present one. In turn, this will have an impact on Mr Modi’s style and authority. Even if neither alter dramatically, they cannot be the same as they are today. However, what if the BJP only wins 210 or 220? As the single largest party it could still form a government but now might the allies demand a different prime minister? Or is this fanciful thinking? The truth is we just don’t know. What happens in 2019 depends not

THE BIGGEST LOSER WOULD BE JAPAN. A LIGHTER U.S. PRESENCE IN THE REGION, EXPANSION OF CHINESE INFLUENCE, AND A BURST OF NATIONAL PRIDE IN KOREA ALL CREATE TROUBLE FOR TOKYO former South Korean president Kin Dae-jung won a Nobel Prize for his work toward a Korean peace deal in 2000. The Nobel committee is unlikely ever to offer Trump anything, and Moon, despite his protestations that Trump is more deserving, is an obvious choice for a future prize. South Korea itself will be a winner for as long as a pre-emptive US attack on North Korea is no longer up on the table. Trump is an obvious winner. Every step away from conflict with North Korea allows him to argue that his high-pressure approach is a winner and that he’s better able to bring lasting peace than Barack Obama proved to be. Securing the release of Americans held in the DPRK is a win by itself. The US wins if Trump can earn a test ban on missiles capable of hitting the US. But over the long-term, the US will find it has less influence over the future of the region. That’s why China is the biggest winner of all. The Chinese leadership has long feared that a North Korea-related

thisweekthat atera PICTURE OF THE WEEK

MAY 16: Nawang Gombu u,

the only man to have been twice on the top of o Everest, receiving a gold d medal from Prime Minister Indira Gandhi at a function in New Delhi on Wednesday (May 15)

to be part of the Union Cabinet. Gandhi’s readiness to take the top job changes several dynamics. It signals the beginning of a straightforward mano-e-mano fight at the hustings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The two, to state the obvious, are very different people, and not just from the popular kaamdar vs naamdar (worker vs dynast) line the prime minister has grown very fond of in recent weeks. Modi is by far the better orator, and also has an earthy sense of humour that connects well with the audience, but Gandhi does come across as more sincere and approachable. Perhaps this is because Modi is on the campaign trail so much that at least some of his oratory looks like a stump

just on how voters view the BJP after five years in office but also on the quality and unity of the opposition it faces. This could be the cause of either Mr Modi’s denouement or survival. In the unlikely event of opposition parties collectively implementing Mamata Banerjee’s suggestion of a one-to-one fight, the BJP could be in serious trouble. However, though Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav seem determined to make this a reality in UP, it’s hard to believe it’s possible in Bengal and Tamil Nadu or, even, Maharashtra, leave aside Delhi. Still, it’s possible we could end up with a situation analogous to 1989, with the BJP as the biggest party but others together comprising the majority. This is reminiscent of the National Front or United Front, a political khichri forever pulling apart rather than holding together. It’s bound to be a weak and short-lived government. The final question is: who will that benefit? Narendra Modi, who can credibly claim apres moi le deluge? Or Rahul Gandhi, who could symbolise a fresh start with a new face? My hunch is if the BJP slides to the 200 mark it will opt out of forming a government altogether and prefer to sit in opposition. Mr Modi might believe this is a brief interlude before time and tide restore him to power. The views expressed are personal

security emergency could spill across the border into northeast China. A peace deal would reduce that threat. And as US influence recedes with a partial drawdown of US troops, China will gain another step toward becoming East Asia’s dominant diplomatic and economic player. The biggest loser from a Trump-Kim deal would be Japan, which remains within range of North Korean weapons that don’t need to be tested. A lighter US presence in the region, further expansion of Chinese influence, and a burst of national pride in Korea all create trouble for Tokyo. Of course, there are still clear obstacles to a deal. Will Trump back away when Kim makes clear that he will freeze, but not surrender, his nuclear weapons programme? Will Kim accept anything less than an explicit US pledge never to invade his country? Or maybe Kim is simply playing for time by beginning a negotiation process he hopes will bring immediate economic relief while extending the talks until Trump is no longer president? For now, it appears the two men will meet. Each has an interest in a deal that makes him a winner. For now, we should suspend our scepticism until we see what sort of a deal they can make. Ian Bremmer is president, Eurasia Group, and author of the forthcoming book Us vs Them: The Failure of Globalism. The views expressed are personal

MAY 13-19, 1968 >>FROM THE ARCHIVES OF THE HINDUSTAN TIMES

NE EWS OF THE WEEK INDIA

INDIA WON'T SIGN N-TREATY, UN TOLD MAY 15: Azim Husain of India informed the UN General Assembly that India would not subscribe to the draft nuclear non-proliferation treaty, saying it did not conform to the principles embodied in the UN resolution on the subject

WORLD

CYCLONE KILLS 400 MAY 13: More than 400 people have been killed in a cyclonic storm which hit Burma's southwestern coast on May 10. An official announcement said here tonight that the full force of the cyclone hit the city of Akyab on the coast about 350 miles northwest of Rangoan

speech. Gandhi, unlike Modi, has no administrative experience. He hasn’t run either a state or a ministry, and it is only a few months since he started running a party. That isn’t much of a resume in terms of the work experience required to run a country and could pose a problem even with the Congress’ own allies, current and potential. In Uttar Pradesh, which sends the most representatives to Parliament, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), look likely to fight together in the polls. BSP leader Mayawati has prime ministerial aspirations, as does another leader who is trying to build a federal front against the BJP, the Trinamool Congress’ chief and West Bengal chief minister, Mamata Banerjee. With the possible exception of the Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav, many of these leaders see themselves as peers of former Congress president and Rahul’s mother Sonia Gandhi, whose mandate now is to manage relationships with existing and future partners. And the Congress will need partners. While it is certain that the Congress will better its 2014 tally of 44 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, it is unlikely to be in a position to have, on its own, the minimum numbers required to form a government. Indeed, even with partners, it will be a challenge to derail the BJP juggernaut. Still, stranger things have happened in politics and 2004 is still far too recent (and shocking) for anyone to have forgotten it. If that happens, Gandhi may be willing; he may even, giving him the benefit of the doubt, be able, but will he be acceptable? n

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engender LALITA PANICKER

INVOLVE MEN IN THE BATTLE AGAINST RAPE y now, we have heard all the answers to the rape ‘crisis’ — as it is being described — which has been going on. Each incident seems worse than the last, the victims and perpetrators younger and younger, the sense of remorse totally lacking in the offender. We have debated how the law must kick in with full force, that the death penalty is the only solution. But we still know little about what young people growing up understand about sexuality, what it means and how it must be handled. We hear all sorts of nonsensical advice on how young people should behave. They must not hug in public, they must have no proper interaction between the sexes, they must get married young to avoid temptation, I could go on. We are still very uncomfortable talking about the fact that young people have sexual desires, so it is brushed aside giving rise to frustration and ignorance. It is not spoken about at home, it is rarely spoken about at school. Imagine what a difference it would make to young people, especially young boys, if sex education were made the norm and accepted in schools. There is nothing new with this argument, except that it remains very much in the realm of discussion. Young boys have little knowledge of sex and what they do comes from sources which tend to distort it. It is not that the appropriate knowledge does not exist. There has been at least two decades of research on the subject by educators resulting in inputs for adolescents in school curricula. But it has never been implemented. If parents don’t want their children to learn about sex in a scientific way, teachers are also reluctant to deal with the subject. Unless this warped culture is changed, there can be little hope that young men will become more sensitive to what constitutes unwanted behaviour. In most cases, they think that sex-

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ual assault is no big deal. The other aspect that all state governments need to consider is the circumstances from which the rapists, or at least the majority of them, come. In the Delhi gang rape, they came from the real margins of society, themselves brutalised and degraded. Many young men who come to cities for jobs find themselves isolated, marginalised and victimised, with no moral compass on what is right and wrong. Most of them have had little normal contact with women at all and what little they have has been of a predatory nature. There is the myth that Indian family values are strong and protective. This is often far from the truth. Sexual and other violence often comes from those closest to us. Boys grow up seeing their mothers brutalised by their fathers and take this to be the norm. Violence in the family is often unreported, turning out damaged young men who, in turn, feel that assaulting women is normal behaviour. Given the rate at which rapes are taking place, it has become imperative to look beyond just the law and NGOs. Many years ago, the powerful Sikh clergy spoke out against female foeticide. It had a salutary effect. The pool of people who should be engaged should be widened, starting with teachers. The clergy of different faiths, cultural organisations like the RSS, other civil society movements and a massive media blitz could help. And most of all, more men should be drawn into the fight. I don’t mean those holding candles at vigils. I mean from the cohort like those who carried out the Delhi gang rape. The discourse at the moment is disjointed and sporadic. It becomes high decibel after every incident. It has to be ongoing, it has to be consistent and it has to include, most of all, young men who have grown up thinking that hitting or raping a woman is not a criminal activity. n

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sundayletters THE JUDICIARY MUST CORRECT ITSELF This refers to Karan Thapar’s Don’t leave the apex court under a cloud (Sunday Sentiments, May 6). The recent problems about the interference of the government into appointing judges and also that of some senior judges making statements that could cast a shadow over the integrity of the Chief Justice of India are worrying. It is a sad moment for the Indian judiciary as a whole. The learned judges who are supposed to solve disputes and give verdicts, should themselves come up with a solution to this problem. RAJAN KALIA VIA EMAIL

Karl Marx was a visionary

Punish those who shield rapists

With regard to Ramachandra Guha’s Three things Marx got mostly right (Past & Present, May 6), Karl Marx is an academic industry and tomes have been written on what he meant. Guha focuses on three aspects, but my favourite is Marx’s pronouncement on religion: It is the opium of the masses. The tensions and conflicts in today’s world in the name of religion show how much of a visionary Marx was when he made that statement.

Apropos Gopalkrishna Gandhi’s Death for rapists is not the answer (Incidentally, May 6), the effectiveness of the death penalty for child rapists will not be tested until we have the political will, administrative neutrality and public vigilance to detoxify society. We should explore the options of prosecuting those who support child rapists. SUJIT DE KOLKATA

SUSHIL GUPTA DELHI

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