Information Acquisition and Strategic Disclosure in Oligopoly Jos Jansen (MPI, Bonn)

B

Supplementary Appendix: not for publication

In this Appendix I prove the propositions related to the paper’s extensions, and I prove a proposition on the ex ante incentives to share information unilaterally.

B.1

Proof of Proposition 5 (Convex Costs)

First, I compare the expected overall profits under precommitment. For all cost parameters η ≤ ψf0 /c0 (1) the equilibrium information acquisition are such that: ro = 1 > rf . Hence, the overall expected profits under precommitment are as follows: © ª Πf (rf ) = E πf (θ) − (1 − rf )ψf (rf ) − ηc(rf ), © ª Πo (ro ) = Πo (1, 1) = E π f (θ) − ηc(1).

Since information acquisition investment rf is such that ψf (rf ) = ηc0 (rf ), the expected profit diﬀerence can be rewritten as follows: £ ¤ Πf (rf ) − Πo (ro ) = η · c(1) − c(rf ) − (1 − rf )c0 (rf ) ,

(B.1)

which is positive if c(.) is strictly convex in r. The existence of critical value η c ≥ ψf0 /c0 (1) follows immediately from continuity of the profit diﬀerence in η. Second, for the comparison of the overall expected equilibrium profits under strategic and full information sharing gives the following. From (18) I obtain that for all η > 0 and ∈ {f, s}: © ª¯ Π (r ) = E π (θ) ¯r=r − (1 − r )ψ (r ) − ηc(r ).

© ª Clearly, lim Πf (rf ) = lim Πs (rs ) = E π f (θ) , since limrf = limrs = 1. η→0

η→0

η→0

η→0

The first derivatives of expected profits with respect to cost parameter η reduce

to: drf dψf (rf ) dΠf (rf ) = −(1 − rf ) · − c(rf ), and dη dη dr ¯ µ s s ¶ drs ∂π s (θ) ¯¯ dΠs (rs ) s dψ (r ) = · q − c(rs ). − (1 − r ) dη dη ∂r ¯r=rs dr 1

(B.2) (B.3)

Application of the envelop theorem to identity ψ (r ) = ηc0 (r ) gives: dr c0 (r ) = , dη dψ (r )/dr − ηc00 (r )

(B.4)

where, dψf /dr = −ψf0 and dψs /dr as in (A.15), with qe/q = [q + (1 − q)(1 − r)]−1 . Clearly, dψf (1)/dr is finite and negative, and also dψs (1)/dr is finite and negative, as £ ¤−1 follows from (A.16). This implies that lim dr /dη = c0 (1) · dψ (1)/dr < 0 and is ¯ ¯ ¡ sη→0 ¢ finite for ∈ {f, s}. Moreover, lim ∂π (θ)/∂r¯r=rs = ∂π s (θ)/∂r¯r=1 = 0, as follows η→0

f

f

from (A.6). Hence, limdΠ (r )/dη = lim dΠs (rs )/dη = −c(1) < 0. η→0

η→0

Finally, the second order derivative of Πf (rf ) with respect to η is as follows: ¶ µ f 2 f d2 Πf (rf ) drf dψf (rf ) dr dψf (rf ) 0 f f d r = · · − c (r ) − (1 − r ) 2 · , (B.5) dη2 dη dη dr dη dr

since d2 ψf /dr2 = 0 for any r. Using expression (B.4), gives the following: ¤ £ 2 dr 00 2 000 d2 r dr 2c (r ) − dη d ψ (r )/dr − ηc (r ) · = (B.6) dη2 dη dψ (r )/dr − ηc00 (r ) ³ ´2 for ∈ {f, s}. Taking η → 0 gives: lim d2 rf /dη 2 = 2c0 (1) c00 (1)/ ψf0 , which is η→0

positive and finite, and therefore (B.5) yields lim d2 Πf (rf )/dη 2 = 0. The second order η→0

derivative of Πs (rs ) with respect to η is as follows: ¶ µ s s d2 Πs (rs ) drs dr dψs (rs ) d2 ψs (rs ) s dr 0 s = − c (r ) · · − (1 − r ) · dη 2 dη dη dr dη dr2 ¯ µ s ¶2 2 s ¯ µ s s ¶ ∂π s (θ) ¯¯ ∂ π (θ) ¯¯ d2 rs dr s dψ (r ) + q − (1 − r ) , + 2 · q dη ∂r ¯r=rs dr dη ∂r2 ¯r=rs

where (A.15) yields

d2 ψs (r) ∂ 2 π s (θ) ∂ 2 π s (∅) ∂π s (∅) = q − [q + (1 − q)(1 − r)] + 2(1 − q) . dr2 ∂r2 ∂r2 ∂r It is straightforward to show that d2 ψs (1)/dr2 is finite. These observations imply that: ¶2 µ ¯ ³ s ´2 2 s ¯ ∂ π (θ) ¯ ∂ 2 π s (θ) ¯ dr drs 2 s s 2 lim d Π (r )/dη = limq dη = q lim > 0. Hence, ¯ ∂r2 dη ∂r2 ¯ s η→0

η→0

s

s

η→0

r=r

2

2

η→0

f

f

r=1

lim d Π (r )/dη > limd Π (r )/dη , which, in combination with lim dΠs (rs )/dη = 2

2

η→0

η→0

lim dΠf (rf )/dη < 0 and continuity of dΠ (r )/dη for

η→0

∈ {f, s}, implies that there

exists a critical cost parameter ηs > 0 such that for all η ≤ η s : dΠs (rs )/dη < Πf (rf )/dη < 0. This, in turn (in combination with lim Πs (rs ) = limΠf (rf ) and η→0 f

η→0 s

continuity of Π (r ) and Π (r )), implies: Π (r ) > Π (r ) for all η ≤ η . ¤ s

s

f

f

s

2

s

f

B.2

Proof of Proposition 6 (Continuum of Types)

Suppose firms have beliefs consistent with the disclosure rule δ S , as defined in (20), i.e. (21), (22), and (23). If a firm discloses θ, both firms supply xf (θ). If no firm disclosed information, i.e. (D1 , D2 ) = (∅, ∅), and firm i received signal Θi ∈ {θ, ∅} for any θ ∈ [θ, θ], then the solution of first-order conditions (7) equals: ¯ ) ( ¤ £ S ∗ ¯ ) · Υ(θ, θ ) γ 1 − R(θ; δ ¯ £ ¤£ ¤ ¯ Θi ; δ S , x∗ (Θi ) = E xf (θ) + (2 + γ) 2 + γR(θ; δ S ) 2 + γE{r − R(θ; δ S )|∅; δ S } ¯ (B.7) where µ ¶ ¡ ¢ 1 − G(θ∗ ) ∗ S ∗ Υ(θ, θ ) ≡ (2 + γr) θ − E(θ|∅; δ ) + γr E{θ|θ ≥ θ } − θ . (B.8) 1 − rG(θ∗ ) Second, I show that an equilibrium exists in which disclosure rule δ S in (20) is chosen. Suppose firm i’s competitor chooses disclosure rule δ S , and firm i observes θ and has beliefs consistent with δ S . Hence, the expected profit from disclosure equals: π(θ|θ) ≡ xf (θ)2 . The expected profit from concealment is: π(∅|θ) ≡ rδ(θ)xf (θ)2 + [1 − rδ(θ)]x∗ (θ)2 , where x∗ (θ) is as in (B.7). The diﬀerence between the expected profits from disclosure and concealment equals: ¡ ¢ π(θ|θ) − π(∅|θ) = [1 − rδ(θ)] xf (θ)2 − x∗ (θ)2 .

The firm prefers to disclose the intercept θ if xf (θ) > x∗ (θ). This inequality is satisfied if Υ(θ, θ∗ ) < 0. Notice that Υ is continuous and increasing in θ, with Υ(θ, θ∗ ) < 0 and Υ(θ, θ∗ ) > 0. Consequently, the critical value θ∗ exists, with θ < θ∗ < θ, such that Υ(θ∗ , θ∗ ) = 0, and δS in (20) is an equilibrium disclosure rule for this θ∗ . Firms that adopt the equilibrium disclosure rule δ S supply the following output levels in equilibrium: ½ f x (θ), if θ ≤ θ∗ S x (θ) = , and xS (∅) = x∗ (∅). (B.9) x∗ (θ), if θ > θ∗ Anticipating the equilibrium strategies δS and xS , the firms expect the marginal revenue ψS (r) in (11) from information acquisition. Clearly, if θ > θ∗ , then Υ(θ, θ∗ ) > 0, which implies for all r < 1: ½ f x (θ), if θ ≤ θ∗ , S (B.10) x (θ) = x∗ (θ) > xf (θ), if θ > θ∗ . 3

Since limθ∗ = E(θ) < θ, (B.10) implies: ψS (0) = limE{π S (θ)} − π f (∅) > ψf0 . r→0

r→0

S

ψ S0 ,

Furthermore, ψ (1) = 0. If 0 < η < and firms anticipate actions δ S and xS , there exist only interior equilibrium information acquisition investments. Investment r = 0 (resp. r = 1) is not an equilibrium investment, since ψS (0) > η (resp. ψS (1) = 0 < η). Since ψS is continuous in r, the intermediate value theorem implies that for any 0 < η < ψ S0 there exists some rS ∈ (0, 1) such that ψS (rS ) = η. Finally, if 0 < η ≤ ψf0 , then 0 < rS < 1, and (B.10) implies the following for the expected equilibrium profits: © ª¯ ΠS (rS ) = E π S (θ) ¯r=rS − η > E{π f (θ)} − η = Πf (rf ) = Πo (ro ).

Continuity of ΠS (rS ) in η yields the existence of critical value ηS > ψf0 . ¤

B.3

Proof of Lemma 2 (Bertrand Competition)

(a) Analogous to the proof of lemma 1 (a) with γ < 0, R(θ; 0, 1) = r, R(θ; 0, 1) = 0, and Q(0, 1) = q(1 − r)/(q(1 − r) + 1 − q). (b) Analogous to the proof of proposition 1 with γ < 0. (c) Under full disclosure firms invest rf as in (A.11) in the unique symmetric equilibrium. Under full concealment the marginal revenue of information acquisition, ψo in (A.12), is increasing in r, if γ < 0. Consequently, there exist three symmetric equilibrium investments for ψo0 < η < ψ f0 : ⎧ η ≤ ψo0 , ⎪ ⎨ {1}, n ifhp i o 0, γ2 ro ∈ ψo0 / η − 1 , 1 , if ψo0 < η < ψ f0 , ⎪ ⎩ {0}, otherwise.

Under strategic disclosure there exist only interior information acquisition solutions if 0 < η < ψ b0 . Investment r = 0 (resp. r = 1) is not an equilibrium investment, since ψb (0) > η (resp. ψb (1) = 0 < η). Since ψb is continuous in r, the intermediate value theorem implies that for any 0 < η < ψ b0 there exists some rb ∈ (0, 1) such that ψb (rb ) = η. Clearly, if η < ψo0 , then ro = 1 > max{rb , rf }. The remaining proof of rb > rf follows from the inequality ψb (r) > ψf (r), which can be shown in a similar way as in the proof of proposition 2. ¤

B.4

Proof of Proposition 7 (Bertrand Competition)

Substituting the equilibrium investments of lemma 2 in expected profit function (10) yields the following. 4

First, I compare the expected equilibrium profits under full disclosure and full concealment. Obviously, Πf (rf , rf ) = Πo (1, 1) = E{πf (θ)} − η for all η < ψf0 , since limxo (θ) = xf (θ). Clearly, if η < ψf0 , then Πo (1, 1) = E{πf (θ)} − η > πf (∅) = r→1 hp i Πo (0, 0). Define: r0 ≡ γ2 ψo0 / η − 1 . If η < ψf0 , then r0 < 1, and Πo (r0 , r0 ) = E{π o (θ)}|r=r0 − η

= V ar{xo (θ)}|r=r0 + E{xo (θ)}2 − η

< V ar{xf (θ)} + E{xf (θ)}2 − η = E{π f (θ)} − η = Πf (rf , rf ),

since xf (θ) < xo (θ) < xo (θ) < xf (θ) and E{xo (θ)} = E{xf (θ)}. Obviously, for all η > ψf0 : Πf (rf ) = Πo (ro ) = πf (∅). Hence, for all η: Πf (rf ) ≥ Πo (ro ).

Finally, I compare the expected equilibrium profit under full disclosure and strategic disclosure. Observe that ψf0 < ψb0 , since limxb (θ) = xo (θ) > xf (θ) and limxb (Θ) = r→0

r→0

ψf0 ,

f

then under strategic x (Θ) for Θ ∈ {θ, ∅}, as shown in lemma 2 (a). If 0 < η ≤ b disclosure there only exist equilibria with investment r ∈ (0, 1) such that ψb (rb ) = η, as shown in lemma 2 (c). Consequently, the expected equilibrium profit under strate¯ gic disclosure equals: Πb (rb ) = E{π b (θ)}¯r=rb − η. Comparing the expected profits for 0 < η ≤ ψf0 immediately yields: © ª¯ Πb (rb ) = E π b (θ) ¯r=rb − η > E{πf (θ)} − η = Πf (rf ),

since π b (θ) > π f (θ) and πb (θ) = π f (θ) for r = rs , as shown in lemma 2 (a). The existence of critical value ηb > ψf0 follows immediately from the observation that expected profits are continuous in η. ¤

B.5

Noncooperative Commitment to Disclose

Consider the variation to the model, where firms unilaterally precommit to information disclosure rules before they acquire information. By contrast, in the model of section 2 firms choose their information disclosure strategy after information is acquired. First, firms simultaneously choose their disclosure rules. Second, firms simultaneously choose their information acquisition investments. Information acquisition investments are not observable, and firms have symmetric expectations about rival investments. Third, after signals are received, firms send messages in accordance 5

with the disclosure rules chosen in stage 1. Finally, firms simultaneously choose their output levels. The following proposition shows that firms have an incentive to precommit to selective disclosure in the symmetric equilibrium of this variation of the model. Proposition 8 If r < 1, then firms unilaterally precommit to disclose a low demand intercept, and conceal a high intercept in the unique symmetric equilibrium, i.e. (δ ∗ (θ), δ ∗ (θ)) = (1, 0). If r = 1, then any disclosure rule may be chosen in equilibrium, and an informed firm with Θi = θ expects to earn the profit π f (θ) for any disclosure rule, with θ ∈ {θ, θ}. Proof: The proof is similar to the proof of proposition 1. Suppose firm i’s competitor chooses disclosure rule (e δ(θ), e δ(θ)) ∈ [0, 1]2 and both firms have beliefs consistent with this rule. Firm i’s expected profit from choosing disclosure rule (δ(θ), δ(θ)) is then: n³ ´ ³ ´o δ) = ri E 1 − re δ(θ) δ(θ) xf (θ)2 − x∗ (θ; e δ)2 Πi (δ, e n³ ´³ ´o e 2 + (1 − ri )x∗ (∅; δ) e2 +E 1 − re δ(θ) ri x∗ (θ; δ) n o f e +E rδ(θ)x (θ) − ηri ,

e as in (8). Notice that only the first line of this expression depends on with x∗ (Θi ; δ) firm i’s disclosure rule. e and If r < 1, then R(θ; e δ) < 1 and 0 < Q(e δ) < 1, which implies xf (θ) > x∗ (θ; δ) e yields xf (θ) < x∗ (θ; e δ) by (8). Hence, if r < 1, then the maximization of Πi (δ, δ) the disclosure rule (δ(θ), δ(θ)) = (1, 0). Consistency of the beliefs with the optimal rule requires that (e δ(θ), e δ(θ)) = (1, 0) in equilibrium. Clearly, no further symmetric equilibria exist. e = 1 and x∗ (θ; e If r = 1, then R(θ; δ) δ) = xf (θ) for θ ∈ {θ, θ}. Consequently, firm ¡ ¢ i is indiﬀerent between any disclosure rule, and therefore any rule with δ(θ), δ(θ) = (e δ(θ), e δ(θ)) is a symmetric equilibrium rule. ¤

6

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Suppose firms have beliefs consistent with the disclosure rule Î´S, as defined in (20),. i.e. (21), (22), and (23). If a firm discloses Î¸, both firms supply xf(Î¸). If no firm disclosed information, i.e. (D1,D2)=(0,0), and firm i received signal Îi â {Î¸,0} for any Î¸ â [Î¸,Î¸], then the solution of first-order conditions (7) equals: x*(Îi) = E (xf ...

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