Macro Forecast
Macro Forecast is a tool designed to deliver country specific, medium-term projections comprised of a list of macroeconomic and financial variables. The projections are based on in-depth country analysis using the most recent data and other available information as interpreted using careful expert judgment. Macro Forecast allows you to make sound decisions in risk management, investments, economic policy or related fields.
Main Features Regular forecasts with a 5-year horizon at a quarterly frequency for a large number of variables, such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, etc.
Tajikistan – Macroeconomic Forecast The implied rate will increase, indicating further necessary depreciation and an increased refinance rate. Implied Interest Rate (percent p.a.)
FDI inflows and a Chinese currency swap agreement counterbalance the sharp decline in remittance inflows, allowing for a gradual depreciation of the official exchange rate. Nominal Exchange Rate (TJS per USD)
Coverage of about 20 frontier and emerging markets. Forecasts based on structural macroeconomic models supplemented with extensive expert judgment. Analytical text explaining the rationale for the forecast and qualifying risks. Enhanced by monthly forecasts of global developments, the Eurozone, the US and a range of commodity prices.
Key added value
Inflation will increase modestly by the end of 2015, then accelerate further in 2016 on the back of the weakening currency, stabilizing around 7.5% only in the medium term. CPI Inflation (percent, YoY)
Despite a serious fall in remittances, GDP growth can be sustained at approx. 6% in 2015–2016 on the back of large investment projects. In the medium term, growth will hover around 5 %, well below the pre-crisis level. Real GDP Growth (percent, YoY)
Country specific, tailored forecasts Consultations with country experts Scenario Builder add-in Rich databases and country intelligence Detailed decompositions, presenting the main forecast drivers
Grey bands represent 10, 30, 50, 70, and 90% confidence intervals. The projections update the macroeconomic forecast from September 2015 on the basis of more recent data.
Consultations with experts
Scenario Builder add-in
Interact with senior economists and country experts and discuss specific forecast issues, recent country developments and major shifts on the horizon.
FPAS Implied Interest Rate (percent p.a.)
30
10
20
8
15
6
10 5
Scenario Builder add-in
4 09Q4
11Q1
12Q2 13Q3
14Q4 16Q1 17Q2
18Q3 19Q4
2
21Q1
CPI Inflation (percent YoY)
15.0
11Q1
12Q2 13Q3
14Q4 16Q1 17Q2
18Q3 19Q4
21Q1
18Q3 19Q4
21Q1
Real GDP Growth (percent YoY)
8 7
10.0
6
7.5
5
5.0 2.5
09Q4
9
12.5
A special module enabling user customization of forecasts in a user friendly graphical environment.
Nominal Ex. Rate TJS per USD
12
25
4 09Q4
11Q1
12Q2 13Q3
14Q4 16Q1 17Q2
18Q3 19Q4
3
21Q1
09Q4
11Q1
12Q2 13Q3
14Q4 16Q1 17Q2
Include your own assumptions in the Macro Forecast models and immediately observe their impact.
Our method
The core model behind Macro Forecast GDP
Our method combines extensive country intelligence, qualitative assessment and the use of models.
Interest rate channel
The models are based on modern economic theory, but are modified to fit the particulars of emerging economies.
Expenditure switching channel
CPI
Inflationary expectations
Models provide strict economic coherence and logic for the forecast and, at the same time, they are flexible enough to incorporate extensive expert judgment.
Real interest rate
Such setup is also ideal for economies with poor data quality or significant structural breaks.
Imported inflation
Nominal interest rate
Foreign demand
Real exchange rate
Nominal exchange rate
Example of a forecast decomposition, i.e. the nominal exchange rate forecast for Tajikistan 30
Nominal Ex. Rate TJS per USD
25 CB Refinancing Rate
20
REER Gap
12 10
Nominal Ex. Rate USD per EUR
5
Nominal Ex. Rate USD per RUB
0 -5
Rest 16Q1
16Q3
17Q1
17Q3
18Q1
18Q3
19Q1
19Q3
20Q1
20Q3
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