Projections and Characteristics of the 60+ Population

SHAHLA MEHDIZADEH, KARL CHOW, WENXUAN HUANG, SUZANNE KUNKEL, JANE STRAKER, ANTHONY BARDO

Scripps Gerontology Center An Ohio Center of Excellence

Madison County, Ohio

Projections and Characteristics of the 60+ Population

Project Team: Shahla A. Mehdizadeh, Ph.D. Karl Chow, MBA Wenxuan Huang, MGS Suzanne R. Kunkel, Ph.D. Jane K. Straker, Ph.D. Antony Bardo, MGS

Scripps Gerontology Center Miami University

January 2014

This research was funded as part of a grant from the Ohio General Assembly, through the Ohio Board of Regents to the Ohio LongTerm Care Research Project. For additional information about this funding source see [email protected]; and for this report see www.ohio-population.org or contact us at Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056; (513) 529-2914; [email protected] . Suggested citation: Scripps Gerontology Center (2013). Projections and Characteristics of the 60+ Population. Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University, Oxford, OH. Available at www.ohio-population.org

1

Cover.xls

Madison County

This report describes the characteristics of the county’s 60-plus population in 2010, and changes that have occurred since 2000. This chart book also includes population characteristics such as education, income level, marital status, and living arrangement that are shown to be associated with the need for long-term services and supports. There are also charts that compare the older population of the county to the state as a whole.

In addition, the projected size of the 60+ population for 2015-2030 and those expected to experience physical and/or cognitive disability are included. These projections are intended to assist planners, decisions makers, and service providers in preparing for the aging population, particularly those who will likely need assistance.

Profile of 60+ Population

Total Population Percent of Population Age 60+ Percent at or Below Poverty Median Income Percent White Percent Married Percent with High School Diploma Or Higher Education Percent Having Grandchildren Living at Home

2000

2010

5,971 14.4 11.6 $15,400 97.0 62.3

7,715 17.8 10.5 $20,243 96.1 63.8

2,287,424 19.8 11.8 $20,320 88.7 57.5

57,085,908 18.5 11.7 $20,152 78.7 57.7

65.57

77.73

79.34

79.7

2.6

3.37 12.9

3.61 10.4

5.43 8.8

--

Percent of 65+ Medicaid Recipient

Ohio (2010)

U.S. (2010)

Source: United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.

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CountyOverall.xls

Madison County 60+ Population as a Percentage of County Total Population by Age Group, 2000 - 2010 12%

2000

2010

10%

8%

6%

4%

5.4%

3.9%

3.9% 3.1%

2.9%

3.2% 2.1% 2.2%

2%

1.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4%

0%

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

County 60+ Population (2000) County 60+ Population (2010) County Total Population (2000) County Total Population (2010) Ohio Total Population (2010) Ohio 60+ Population (2010) Ohio Total Population (2000) Ohio 60+ Population (2000)

85-89

90-94

0.1% 0.1%

95+

5,971 7,715 40,213 43,435 11,536,494 2,287,414 11,353,140 1,963,489

60+ Population as a Percentage of Total Population by Age Group for County and Ohio, 2010 12%

Madison

Ohio

10%

8%

6%

5.4%

5.8%

3.9%

4%

4.2% 3.2% 3.2% 2.2%

2.6% 1.7%

2%

2.1% 1.3% 0.9%

0.4% 0.5%

0%

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

0.1% 0.1%

95+

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.

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County Reports - Age.xls

Madison County

Distribution of 60+ Population by Education County and Ohio, 2010

Distribution of 60+ Population by Education 2000 - 2010 2000

2010

Madison

Ohio

60%

50%

47.4%

47.4% 43.3%

41.0%

40% 31.9%

30% 20.3%

20.3%

20%

16.8%

20.5%

18.1%

16.8%

13.6%

10%

8.2% 4.9%

2.6% 2.0%

3.7%

8.2%

5.3%

10.2%

2.0% 2.5%

5.3%

7.6%

0% 6th Grade or Less

7th- 12th (No Diploma)

High School Graduate

Some College

6th Grade or 7th- 12th High School Less (No Graduate Diploma)

Bachelor's Graduate Degree Degree

County 60+ Population (2010) County Total Population (2000) County 60+ Population (Men) in 2010 County 60+ Population (Women) in 2010 Ohio 60+ Population (2010)

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate Degree

7,715 40,213 3,579 4,136 2,287,414

Distribution of 60+ Population by Education and Gender 2010 Men

Women

60% 50.9%

50% 43.2%

40%

30% 19.8%

20%

20.7% 16.5%

17.1% 10.2%

10%

6.4% 1.8%

8.6% 2.7%

2.1%

0% 6th Grade or 7th- 12th (No High School Some College Bachelor's Less Diploma) Graduate Degree

Graduate Degree

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.

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County Reports - Education.xls

Madison County County 60+ Population by Race, 2000

Black NonHispanic, 1.9%

County 60+ Population by Race, 2010

Other Races NonHispanic, 0.8%

Black NonHispanic, 1.6%

Hispanic, 0.4%

Other Races Non-Hispanic, 1.1%

Hispanic, 1.3%

White NonHispanic, 96.1%

White NonHispanic, 97.0%

Ohio 60+ Population County 60+ Population (2000)

by Race, 2010

5,971

County 60+ population (2010) County Total Population (2000)

7,715 40,213

County Total Population (2010) Ohio Total Population (2010)

43,435 11,536,494

Ohio 60+ Population (2010)

Black NonHispanic, 8.6%

Other Races NonHispanic, 1.6%

2,287,414

Hispanic, 1.1%

White NonHispanic, 88.7%

County 60+ Population (2000) County 60+ Population (2010) Ohio 60+ Population (2010)

5,971 7,715 2,287,414

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.

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County Reports - Race-Pie.xls

Madison County Distribution of 60+ Population by Marital Status 2000 - 2010 W/D/S = Widowed/Divorced/Separated 2000

Distribution of 60+ Population by Marital Status County and Ohio, 2010 W/D/S = Widowed/Divorced/Separated

2010

Madison

80.0% 70.0%

63.8%

62.3%

Ohio

63.8%

60.0%

57.5%

50.0% 40.0%

34.2%

37.6%

32.6%

32.6%

30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 3.5%

3.6%

4.9%

3.6%

0.0% Married

W/D/S

Married

Never Married

County 60+ Population (2010) County Total Population (2000) County 60+ Population (Men) in 2010

W/D/S

Never Married

7,715 40,213 3,579

County 60+ Population (Women) in 2010 Ohio 60+ Population (2010)

4,136 2,287,414

Distribution of 60+ Population by Marital Status and Age Group, 2010

Distribution of 60+ Population by Marital Status and Gender, 2010 W/D/S = Widowed/Divorced/Separated

Married

Men

Widowed/Divorced/Separated

Women

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

73.0%

78.8%

75.1%

70.0%

67.0%

60.0%

69.3%

64.8%

56.7%

60.0%

55.2%

48.9%

50.0%

50.0% 40.0%

Never Married

39.0% 28.0%

30.0%

40.2%

40.0% 30.0%

33.6% 24.2%

20.0%

20.0% 10.0%

5.0%

5.9%

10.0%

41.1% 30.0% 21.2%

20.2%

10.0% 2.8%

4.7%

60-64 (2326)

65-69 (1711)

1.6%

3.1%

70-74 (1392)

75-79 (970)

0.7%

0.0%

85-89 (378)

90+ (157)

0.0%

0.0%

Married

W/D/S

Never Married

Marital Status

80-84 (732)

Age Group (Population)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.

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County Reports - Marital Status.xls

Madison County

Proportion of 60+ Population Who Live Alone County and Ohio, 2010

Proportion of 60+ Population Who Live Alone, 2000 - 2010 40% 35% 29.2%

30%

27.8%

25%

24.4%

24.4%

2010

Madison

20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000

County 60+ Population (2010) County 60+ Population (Men) in 2010 County 60+ Population (Women) in 2010 Ohio 60+ Population (2010)

Proportion of 60+ Population Who Live Alone by Age Group, 2010

Ohio

7,715 3,579 4,136 2,287,414

Proportion of 60+ Population Who Live Alone by Gender and Age Group, 2010 Men

Women

90% 80% 70%

64.0%

60%

56.0% 56.3%

50% 40%

42.5%

30%

45.6%

17.8%

21.4%

65-69

21.3%

18.7%

16.5%

0% 60-64

70-74

75-79

41.0%

36.2%

33.0%

14.9%

45.9%

36.8%

26.1%

20% 10%

45.6%

80-84

85-89

90+

11.7%

11.2%

11.6%

60-64 (2326)

65-69 (1711)

70-74 (1392)

75-79 (970)

80-84 (732)

85-89 (378)

90+ (157)

Age Group (Population)

Age Group

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.

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County Reports - Living.xls

Madison County Distribution of 60+ Population by Income-to PovertyThreshold Ratio, 2010

Distribution of 60+ Population by Income-to-PovertyThreshold Ratio, 2000 and 2010 2000

Madison

2010

Ohio

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

35.9%

35.6%

35.6%

32.8%

30.0%

20.0%

17.9% 11.6%

10.0%

20.2%

20.6%

20.2% 19.9%

19.3% 14.0%

19.3% 20.1%

14.5%

14.5%

10.5%

10.5%

15.5%

11.8%

0.0% Less than 1.00

1.00-1.99

2.00-2.99

3.00-3.99

Income-to-Poverty-Threshold Ratio

4 or more

Less than 1.00

1.00-1.99

2.00-2.99

3.00-3.99

4 or more

Income-to-Poverty-Threshold Ratio

Federal Poverty Threshold in 2010*

Persons in family 1 2 3 4 5 6

Poverty Poverty Guideline Guideline (65 (Younger than and older) 65) $ 11,344.00 $ 10,458.00 $ 14,676.00 $ 13,194.00 $ 17,374.00 $ 17,374.00 $ 22,314.00 $ 22,314.00 $ 26,439.00 $ 26,439.00 $ 29,897.00 $ 29,897.00

County 60+ Population in 2000 County 60+ Population in 2010 Ohio 60+ Population in 2010 County 60+ Population (Men) in 2010 County 60+ Population (Women) in 2010

5,971 7,715 2,287,414 3,579 4,136

*U.S. Census Bureau. Poverty thresholds by Size of Family and Number of Children. Retrieved August 5, 2013 from http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/threshld/index.html.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.

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County Reports - Poverty 2 Pages.xls

Madison County

Proportion of 60+ Population at 4 or More Times Poverty Threshold Income by Gender and Age Group, 2010

Proportion of County's 60+ Population at or Below Poverty Threshold Income by Gender and Age Group, 2010 Men

Women

Men

Women

80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.6%

53.3%

50.0%

43.8%

40.0%

27.1%

30.0%

45.8%

32.5%

25.3%

21.4%

20.0% 10.0%

10.0%

5.5%

10.4%

9.4%

14.5%

32.1% 21.4%

23.6%

23.8%

21.8%

22.2%

10.3%

16.5%

14.0% 13.4%

10.0%

8.6%

0.0% 60 - 64 (2326)

65 - 69 (1711)

5.6% 70 - 74 (1392)

7.7% 75 - 79 (970)

0.0% 80 - 84 (732)

85 - 89 (378)

60 - 64 (2326)

90+ (206)

65 - 69 (1711)

70 - 74 (1392)

75 - 79 (970)

80 - 84 (732)

85 - 89 (378)

90+ (206)

Age Group (Population)

Age Group (Population)

In 2010, 10.5% of the 60+ population in Madison County had an annual income at or below the poverty level (about $11,000 for an individual 65 and older). About 20% lived between poverty and two times the poverty income level (between $11,344 and about $22,700). Compared to the state as a whole, a lower percentage of Madison County’s 60+ population had incomes below three times the poverty threshold (50% v. 51.8%), and a higher percentage of its older population had incomes in the highest category of at least four times the poverty threshold (35.6% v. 32.8%). Although usually poverty is more prevalent among older women, in Madison County in some age groups the percentage of older men in poverty exceeds that of women. On the other hand, a lower percentage of women had income four or more times poverty threshold income at every age, except 90 and older, compared to men.

Source: United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.

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County Reports - Poverty 2 Pages.xls

Madison County

Projections of 60+ Population as a Percentage of Total Population for County and State, 2010-2030 Madison

Ohio

28.7%

27.5% 25.2% 22.3%

19.8%

28.0%

26.0% 23.2%

20.2% 17.8%

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Year Source: Scripps Gerontology Center. (2013). Projections of Ohio's Population with a Disability 2010-2030 . Oxford, OH: Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University.

County Projected 60+ Population with Physical and/or Cognitive Disability, 2010-2030 Year

Total 60+ Population

Severe Physical and/or Cognitive Disability

7,715

456

Percentage of 60+ Population 5.9%

Number

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Moderate Physical and/or Cognitive Disability

249

Percentage of 60+ Population 3.2%

Number

9,084

536

5.9%

290

3.2%

10,767

638

5.9%

343

3.2%

12,432

768

6.2%

403

3.2%

13,699

910

6.6%

456

3.3%

Source: Scripps Gerontology Center. (2013). Projections of Ohio's Population with a Disability 2010-2030 . Oxford, OH: Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University.

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County Reports - Disability 2.xls

Madison County

Projections of the Number of People Age 60+ with Severe Physical and/or Cognitive Disability, 2010-2030, by Age 60-69

70-79

80-89

90+

323

266

276 219

235

191

168 162 135 86 67

2010

173

193

138

136

120

103

131 106

80

2015

2020

2025

2030

Year Source: Scripps Gerontology Center. (2013). Projections of Ohio's Population with a Disability 2010-2030 . Oxford, OH: Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University.

Projections of the Number of People Age 60+ with Severe Physical and/or Cognitive Disability Who Have Income Below 200% of Poverty, 2010-2030 Severe Disability 200% of Poverty Income Threshold

456

536 165

141

2010

2015

768

638

235

194

2020

2025

910 278

2030

Year Source: Scripps Gerontology Center. (2013). Projections of Ohio's Population with a Disability 2010-2030 . Oxford, OH: Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University.

For projection methodology see ohio-population.org/DataDownload Click on: Population Projection Methodology For Prevalence of Disability Estimation Methodology: Click on: Estimating Prevalence of Disability

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County Reports - Disability 2.xls

Summary

This presentation of county population trends reveals important indicators of current and future need for long-term services and supports. The county’s population is aging; the share of the population that is 60 years and older will continue to grow over the next 20 years. A higher proportion of the older population experiences poverty, compared to other adults. In addition, those at very advanced ages are mostly women who have outlived their spouses and most likely live alone. The combination of lower income, living alone and higher prevalence of disability among older women are all contributors to the need for long-term services and supports.