Banking Outlook 2018 Opportunities & Challenges Le Meridien, 16 Nov 2017
Abdullah Firman Wibowo President Director PT Bank BNI Syariah
This presentation has been prepared specifically for BNI Syariah. The content of this presentation may not be used, duplicated or transmitted in any form without the written consent from BNI Syariah. All rights reserved.
1
Macroeconomy Highlight Islamic Banking Industry Highlight Opportunities & Challenges
2
Global Economy Keeps Growing Alongside several challenges to deal with
GDP Countries
EU 2.5%
USA 2.3%
China 6.8%
2015
2016
Q3-2017
Indonesia
4.9%
5.0%
5.0%
Malaysia*
4.5%
4.5%
5.8%
Thailand*
2.8%
3.0%
3.7%
Philippine*
6.3%
6.6%
6.5%
Singapore
2.0%
2.5%
4.6%
*Q2-2017
Challenges
Security & 1 China 2 Monetary 3 Low Economic Rebalancing Normalization Commodity Prices 4 Geo Politic
Change & 5 Climate Food Sovereignty
Sources: tradingeconomics, Sri Mulyani-Perkembangan Ekonomi Makro (Oct’17)
3
BI Rate Inflation Forex Reserve
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Oct-17
Jul-17
Apr-17
Jan-17
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Indonesia Macroeconomy is Moderately Stable
Reflecting a positive market confidence
13,563
126
4.25%
3.58%
IDR/US$
Sources: bi.go.id
4
The Government Put More Concern on Fiscal Policy To accomplish the medium-long term development plan REVENUE ITEM (IDR trillion) Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue Hibah Total Revenue
APBN 2017
RAPBN 2018
∆
1473
1609
9.2%
260
268
3.1%
3
1
-66.7%
1736
1878
8.2%
Tax Policy 2018 1. Optimizing data analysis and building an integrated IT system 2. Increasing tax awareness and compliance 3. Boosting industrial competitive advantages through tax incentives
APBN 2017
RAPBN 2018
∆
Kementerian/Lembaga
769
814
5.9%
Non Kemenerian/Lembaga
574
629
9.6%
5. Optimizing international agreement
Transfer Daerah
698
701
0.4%
58
60
3.4%
6. Reducing economic gap through fair budget allocation
2099
2204
5.0%
SPENDING ITEM (IDR trillion)
Dana Desa
Total Spending
4. Reducing negative impact of import
Sources: Buku II Nota Keuangan Beserta RAPBN 2018, DEPKEU RI
5
Macro Assumption by RAPBN 2016 Realization
2017 APBN-P
2018 RAPBN
Economic Growth (%)
5.0
5.2
5.4
Inflation (% yoy)
3.0
4.3
3.5
13,307
13,400
13,500
SPN Rate (%)
5.7
5.2
5.3
Oil Prices (US$/barrel)
40
48
48
Oil Lifting (Kilo barrel/day)
825
815
800
Gas Lifting (Kilo barrel/day)
1,193
1,150
1,200
Exchange (IDR/USD)
Sources: Buku II Nota Keuangan Beserta RAPBN 2018, DEPKEU RI
6
Macroeconomy Highlight
2
Islamic Banking Industry Highlight Opportunities & Challenges
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A Paradox Indonesia has a chance to be a global Islamic Finance hub Islamic Banking Marketshare Iran Arab Saudi Malaysia UEA Kuwait Qatar Turki Bangladesh Bahrain Indonesia Sudan Pakistan Mesir Yordania Oman Brunei Others
Moslem Country Population 33.0% 20.6%
9.3% 9.0% 6.1% 5.8% 2.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 3.1%
Source: IFSI Stability Report – IFSB 2017
Indonesia
209
Pakistan
176
India
167
Bangladesh
#10 (USD 28 billion)
134
Egypt
77
Nigeria
77
Iran
74
Turkey
71
Algeria
35
Morocco
32
Source: mapsofworld.com, wikipedia
8
Islamic Banking Highlight Lot of room to improve 5,4%
13
iB marketshare
Islamic Commercial Bank
21 94,6%
Sharia Business Unit
Banking marketshare
167 Islamic Rural Bank
Asset (IDR trillion)
58.435
2.148
National Banking
Workforce
Outlets
Islamic Banking
2015
2016
Jun’17
6,132
6,730
7,029
296
357
380
Source: Statistik Perbankan Syariah OJK, Aug’17
9
Islamic Banking Highlight Growing but creeping Asset Growth (yoy)
Financing Growth (yoy)
Deposit Growth (yoy) 27.8%
43.7%
34.1%
26.1%
24.4% 20.8% 24.6%
24.2%
18.7%
20.4%
24.8%
12.4%
16.7% 16.2%
23.0%
8.7%
11.6%
13.3% 9.2%
13.6%
2013
2014
2015
National Banking
iB
7.3% 9.6%
7.6%
9.8% 10.1%
2016 Aug-17
12.3%
10.4%
8.3% 6.9%
2012
15.8%
16.9%
21.6%
2012
2013
2014
2015
National Banking
6.0%
8.8% 2.6% 2016 Aug-17 iB
4.5% 2012
2013
2014
2015
National Banking
2016 Aug-17 iB
10
Islamic Banking Highlight Need more attention on quality and efficiency NPF/NPL
BOPO 4.33%
4.34%
4.16%
94.16%
3.96%
94.38%
93.62% 87.81%
2.62% 2.22%
2.93%
3.05% 78.21%
2.49% 1.87%
2012
81.49%
74.97%
2.16%
78.90%
1.77%
2013
82.22%
76.29%
2014
2015
National Banking
2016 iB
Aug-17
74.10%
74.08%
2012
2013
2014
2015
National Banking
2016
Aug-17
iB
11
Macroeconomy Highlight Islamic Banking Industry Highlight 3
Opportunities & Challenges
12
Infrastructure Sector Provides Business Opportunity Islamic Banks should take significant part of it IDR 5,519 T
Sulawesi 28 Projects
Infrastructure Needs 2015-2019 Electricity Sea Trans Road Housing Energy Water Utility Water Resource Telematics Air Trans City Trans Land Trans Railway
527 506 499 400 277 165 115 60 28
APBD IDR 545T
Maluku - Papua 13 Projects
Sumatera 46 Projects Jawa 89 Projects
Bali – Nusa Tenggara 16 Projects
Sources of Fund APBN IDR 2,216T
Kalimantan 24 Projects
980 900 805
Private IDR 1,692T
BUMN IDR 1,066T
Lintas Region 10 Projects Source: RPJMP 2015-2019 Bappenas
13
Enormous Range of Halal Industry Driven by growing middle class
Wakaf
USD 30bn USD 157bn
USD 13bn
USD 18bn
USD 15bn
Zakat
USD 50bn
Source: State of the Global Islamic Economy Report 2015
14
The Rise of Fintech Calibrates a New Service Level Bank’s services should be developed on digital based
Sources: fintechnews.sg
15
Tackling The Challenges: Leveraging business capacity
1. Capital Strengthening
2. Synergy Optimization
3. Digital Development
Capital strengthening thru various strategy, eg. Capital injection, strategic partnership, IPO, etc.
Optimizing synergy either between Islamic financial Institution or affiliated corporation.
Digitalizing process & services as soon as possible
16
Tackling The Challenges: Establishing Halal Ecosystem
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Jazaakumullah Khairan Katsiiran
PT Bank BNI Syariah Jakarta Indonesia 12950
This presentation has been prepared specifically for BNI Syariah. The content of this presentation may not be used, duplicated or transmitted in any form without the written consent from BNI Syariah. All rights reserved.
