SubTER: 10 Year Vision & FY16-FY18 Workplan Susan Hubbard (LBNL), Marianne Walck (SNL) and SubTER team leads DOE Briefing, DC, Nov 17, 2015
SubTER: 10 Year Vision & FY16-FY18 Workplan • A New Subsurface S&T Paradigm: Motivation • SubTER Multi-Year Workplan: 10 Year Vision & 3 Year plan (FY16-FY18) • Budget, Organization & Operation • Next Steps & Expected Outcomes
A New Subsurface S&T Paradigm: Motivation
The Subsurface provides 80% of the US Energy and is a vast storage reservoir Shale hydrocarbon production
Renewable Energy 10%
Enhanced geothermal energy
Geothermal 0.2% Nuclear Power 8%
Natural Gas 28% Coal 18%
Geo
Petroleum 35%
Primary Energy Use by Source, 2014 Safe subsurface storage of Carbon sequestration CO2
Quadrillion Btu [Total U.S. = 98.3 Quadrillion Btu]
Safe subsurface storage of nuclear waste
Methane Hydrates
Compressed Air Energy Storage
Mastery of the Subsurface needed to Greatly Enhance its Utilization Shale hydrocarbon production
Renewable Energy 10%
Enhanced geothermal energy
Geothermal 0.2% Nuclear Power 8%
Natural Gas 28% Coal 18%
Geo
Petroleum 35%
Primary Energy Use by Source, 2014 Safe subsurface storage of Carbon sequestration CO2
Quadrillion Btu [Total U.S. = 98.3 Quadrillion Btu]
Safe subsurface storage of nuclear waste
Methane Hydrates
Compressed Air Energy Storage
Adaptive Control of Subsurface Fractures and Flow Ability to adaptively manipulate subsurface – with confidence and rapidly.
Range of RD3 Challenges:
Fundamental Science to Engineering Application
General State of Knowledge & Practice Reservoir stress distribution and material properties are highly heterogeneous Mechanistic understanding of multi-scale processes that influence stress distribution and thus fracture formation and flow is lacking Industry is developing approaches to improve subsurface engineering, commonly guided by empirical field evidence. Industry not attempting ‘real time’ control
General State of Knowledge & Practice Reservoir stress distribution and material properties are highly heterogeneous Mechanistic understanding of multi-scale processes that influence stress distribution and thus fracture formation and flow is lacking Industry is developing approaches to improve subsurface engineering, commonly guided by empirical field evidence. Industry not attempting ‘real time’ control
Laboratories have history of developing game changing tools and approaches and using team science to tackle ambitious challenges Significant public concern and uncertainty associated with environmental risks
Today we cannot accurately image, predict, or control fractures / flow with confidence or in real-time.
How does ‘Adaptive Control’ differ from State of Practice? Smart holes, integrated suites for monitoring stress and fluid movement
Approach, pressures, volumes, fluids
Implement optimized access and sensingmodeling technologies
Design Manipulation
Geology and faults, hydrology, geochemistry, risk drivers
Characterize Site
big data approaches, fast models for predicting fractures, flow and seismicity
Engineer Subsurface – from brute force to finesse
Use knowledge rapidly extracted from integrated data-models to enable in-field adjustment
S&T optimized injection, stimulation, plugging, storage
Anticipate impending critical thresholds, Steer and seal fractures, remediate leaks
SubTER Multi-Year Workplan: 10 Year Vision & 3 Year plan (FY16-FY18)
Pivotal moment for transformative subsurface innovation Integrated plan and team to achieve ambitious outcomes Program engagement critical – SubTER achievements will build upon and feedback to individual DOE programs, all raising visibility of importance of subsurface S&T
Rich outcomes will lead to game-changing uses of subsurface for many strategies, with simultaneous protection of the environment
Significant input to the Multi-year Work Plan Post Summit I Activities 1st SubTER Retreat • 13 labs and DOE participated, built out technical elements Labs support DOE on SubTER elements in QTR • Substantive narrative for web appendix FY15 AOP Saplings Outreach: Summit II, professional societies, universities, industry
2nd Subter Retreat • Defined cross-pillar 2, 5 and 10 year goals National Lab Engagement Day Develop 10 Year Vision and FY16-FY18 Work Plan DOE SubTER Briefing
SubTER Launch
NovDec 2014
JanFeb 2015
MarApr 2015
MayJun 2015
JulAug 2015
SepOct 2015
Nov 2015
Significant input to the Multi-year Work Plan Post Summit I Activities
NovDec 2014
JanFeb 2015
MarApr 2015
MayJun 2015
JulAug 2015
1st SubTER Retreat • 13 labs and DOE participated, built out technical elements
SepOct 2015
Several DOE-National Lab engagements have led to: Labs support•DOE oneffective SubTER elements in QTR and common vision An partnership • Substantive narrative for web appendix • An ambitious plan that takes advantage of ‘system of lab’ to address critical challenges FY15 AOP Saplings InputII, from wide range of academic, Outreach: Summit professional societies, universities, industry think-tank sources 2nd Subter Retreat • Defined cross-pillar 2, 5 and 10 year goals National Lab Engagement Day Develop 10 Year Vision and FY16-FY18 Work Plan DOE SubTER Briefing
SubTER Launch
industry, and
Nov 2015
Activities & Input: Select Examples SubTER technical Activities • SubTER team retreats, 2014, 2015, • SubTER workshops 2015: Shale at all Scales Grand Challenges in Geological Fluid Mechanics 3D Printing techniques relevant to rock physics Novel Cements
Solicited Input • Subsurface grand challenge RFI May 2014 • AGU town hall 2014 • National Laboratory Day, July 2015 • GSA SubTER booth 2015 • Shell Centennial Grand Challenges in Rock Physics 2015 • Many other scientific, industry and NGO events
Expert Recommendations: Select Examples Grand Challenge BES Roundtable: Advanced Imaging of stress and geological processes (May 2015) Identified Priority Research Directions: • Reactive, multi-phase flow in fractured systems • Mechanical and geochemical coupling in stressed rocks • Nanoporous rock structure, permeability and reactivity JASON letter report on the “State of Stress in Engineered Subsurface Systems” (September 2014) recommended that: • “DOE should take a leadership role in the science and technology for improved measurement, characterization, and understanding of the state of stress of engineered subsurface systems in order to address major energy and security challenges of the nation.” • “coordinated research and technology development at dedicated field sites to connect insights from laboratory scales and models to operational environments” Select other • National Resource Council, 2014 • National Energy Association, July 2014 • National Academy of Sciences, October 2014
SubTER Framework Adaptive Control of Subsurface Fractures and Fluid Flow Wellbore Integrity and Drilling Technologies
Subsurface Stress & Induced Seismicity
Permeability Manipulation & Fluid Control
New Subsurface Signals
SubTER Framework Adaptive Control of Subsurface Fractures and Fluid Flow Wellbore Integrity and Drilling Technologies Improved well construction materials and techniques Autonomous completions for well integrity modeling New diagnostics for wellbore integrity Remediation tools and technologies Fit-for-purpose drilling and completion tools (e.g. anticipative drilling, centralizers, monitoring) HT/HP well constr. & completion technologies
Subsurface Stress & Induced Seismicity
Permeability Manipulation & Fluid Control
State of Stress (measurement and manipulation)
Manipulating Physicochemical Fluid-Rock Interactions
New Sensing Approaches
Induced seismicity (measurement and manipulation)
Manipulating Flow Paths to Enhance/Restrict Fluid Flow
Integration of Multi-Scale, MultiType Data
Relate Stress and IS to Permeability
Characterizing Fracture Dynamics and Fluid Flow
Adaptive Control Processes
Applied Risk Analysis to Assess Impact of Subsurface Manipulation
Novel Stimulation Technologies
Diagnostic Signatures and Critical Thresholds
New Subsurface Signals
SubTER Framework Adaptive Control of Subsurface Fractures and Fluid Flow Wellbore Integrity and Drilling Technologies Improved well construction materials and techniques Autonomous completions for well integrity modeling New diagnostics for wellbore integrity Remediation tools and technologies Fit-for-purpose drilling and completion tools (e.g. anticipative drilling, centralizers, monitoring) HT/HP well constr. & completion technologies
Subsurface Stress & Induced Seismicity
Permeability Manipulation & Fluid Control
State of Stress (measurement and manipulation)
Manipulating Physicochemical Fluid-Rock Interactions
New Sensing Approaches
Induced seismicity (measurement and manipulation)
Manipulating Flow Paths to Enhance/Restrict Fluid Flow
Integration of Multi-Scale, MultiType Data
Relate Stress and IS to Permeability
Characterizing Fracture Dynamics and Fluid Flow
Adaptive Control Processes
Applied Risk Analysis to Assess Impact of Subsurface Manipulation
Novel Stimulation Technologies
Diagnostic Signatures and Critical Thresholds
New Subsurface Signals
SubTER Framework Adaptive Control of Subsurface Fractures and Fluid Flow Wellbore Integrity and Drilling Technologies Improved well construction materials and techniques Autonomous completions for well integrity modeling New diagnostics for wellbore integrity Remediation tools and technologies Fit-for-purpose drilling and completion tools (e.g. anticipative drilling, centralizers, monitoring) HT/HP well constr. & completion technologies
Subsurface Stress & Induced Seismicity
Permeability Manipulation & Fluid Control
State of Stress (measurement and manipulation)
Manipulating Physicochemical Fluid-Rock Interactions
New Sensing Approaches
Induced seismicity (measurement and manipulation)
Manipulating Flow Paths to Enhance/Restrict Fluid Flow
Integration of Multi-Scale, MultiType Data
Relate Stress and IS to Permeability
Characterizing Fracture Dynamics and Fluid Flow
Adaptive Control Processes
Applied Risk Analysis to Assess Impact of Subsurface Manipulation
Novel Stimulation Technologies
Diagnostic Signatures and Critical Thresholds
Energy Field Observatories Fit For Purpose Simulation Capabilities
New Subsurface Signals
SubTER Framework Adaptive Control of Subsurface Fractures and Fluid Flow Wellbore Integrity and Drilling Technologies Improved well construction materials and techniques Autonomous completions for well integrity modeling New diagnostics for wellbore integrity Remediation tools and technologies Fit-for-purpose drilling and completion tools (e.g. anticipative drilling, centralizers, monitoring) HT/HP well constr. & completion technologies
Subsurface Stress & Induced Seismicity
Permeability Manipulation & Fluid Control
State of Stress (measurement and manipulation)
Manipulating Physicochemical Fluid-Rock Interactions
New Sensing Approaches
Induced seismicity (measurement and manipulation)
Manipulating Flow Paths to Enhance/Restrict Fluid Flow
Integration of Multi-Scale, MultiType Data
Relate Stress and IS to Permeability
Characterizing Fracture Dynamics and Fluid Flow
Adaptive Control Processes
Applied Risk Analysis to Assess Impact of Subsurface Manipulation
Novel Stimulation Technologies
Diagnostic Signatures and Critical Thresholds
Energy Field Observatories Fit For Purpose Simulation Capabilities
New Subsurface Signals
Subsurface Stress and Induced Seismicity: Examples of Element Goals Element
2-year goals Compile database(s) of publicly available data to test models of permeability/slip relationship(s) Design and carry out laboratory and numerical experiments to identify and acquire missing data needed to achieve goals
Relate Stress and IS to Permeability
5-year goals Conduct field demonstration(s) of optimal integrated monitoring, analysis, and characterization techniques Demonstrated improved permeability prediction by a factor of 3 over baseline
Establish dedicated field observatory site(s). Perform integrated analysis and interpretation of results from initial field experiments, using stateof-the-art techniques
Demonstrate characterization techniques to predict seismic vs. aseismic slip behavior
Establish benchmarks for permeability prediction capabilities including both fault leakage and fractured reservoir productivity
Identify and prioritize techniques capable of achieving 10 year goals
10-year goals
Develop the ability to utilize stress and IS to control and characterize flow paths along reactivated faults and fractures, predicting permeability behavior with an order of magnitude improvement over current capabilities
Subsurface Stress and Induced Seismicity: Examples of Element Goals Element
2-year goals Compile database(s) of publicly available data to test models of permeability/slip relationship(s) Design and carry out laboratory and numerical experiments to identify and acquire missing data needed to achieve goals
Relate Stress and IS to Permeability
5-year goals Conduct field demonstration(s) of optimal integrated monitoring, analysis, and characterization techniques Demonstrated improved permeability prediction by a factor of 3 over baseline
Establish dedicated field observatory site(s). Perform integrated analysis and interpretation of results from initial field experiments, using stateof-the-art techniques
Demonstrate characterization techniques to predict seismic vs. aseismic slip behavior
Establish benchmarks for permeability prediction capabilities including both fault leakage and fractured reservoir productivity
Identify and prioritize techniques capable of achieving 10 year goals
FY16-FY18 Activities
10-year goals
Develop the ability to utilize stress and IS to control and characterize flow paths along reactivated faults and fractures, predicting permeability behavior with an order of magnitude improvement over current capabilities
Field Energy Observatories Field Energy Observatories Enable: • In situ testing under controlled conditions a critical aspect of RDD&D • Coordination of SubTER activities (common site, materials) • Community engagement • Partnership with industry and stakeholders • Partnerships across DOE programs Desirable Characteristics: • Located in relevant lithologies, T&P • Good site access, available data • Ability to manipulate the subsurface & perform destructive testing • Logistics support • Engaged partners & stakeholders
The MSEEL Project
Fit-For-Purpose Modeling and next-generation computational approaches for subsurface control Several Modeling Activities are identified in Pillar Activities. Examples: • • •
• •
Modeling stress evolution in wellbore environment Multi-physics modeling of stress at field observatories Accurate simulation of coupled permeability, fracture propagation, fluid flow and proppant behavior Anticipate stress evolution and induced seismicity constrained by diverse datasets Risk assessment simulators Joint hydro-geophysical simulation capabilities
Cross-Pillar Modeling Working Group Partnerships with SC ripe for advances: • • • •
Advanced simulation of multiscale THMC processes Integrated and rapid data processing, management, and interpretation – toward adaptive control using exascale Extracting knowledge from big, streaming, complex, heterogeneous datasets Ultra-fast predictions and decision support
Presentations to Follow will Describe FOR EACH PILLAR • Motivation • State-of-the-Art • Goals • Elements • Select Fy16-Fy18 Activities • Current SubTER and Community Activities • Metrics • Collaborations
SubTER success requires advances and integration across pillars
Select 10-year SubTER Goals Achieve Overall Goal: Successful demonstration of adaptive control for several energy strategies Year 10:
Manipulate stress away from the borehole Inject fluid (eg., carbon sequestration, waste disposal, CAES) with acceptable/predictable seismicity Create and plug fractures at will in a variety of subsurface environments Create boreholes that do not leak for every subsurface energy application Develop and successfully implement technologies that enable access, modeling, and monitoring at scales and resolution for guiding adaptive control Provide science to enable a new class of responsible energy production and waste storage options
Select 5-year SubTER (Cross-Pillar) Goals Year 5: Develop and validate approach to incorporate multiple dynamic sensor datasets and data streams, and update predictions of permeability, stress and well integrity at up to 20 mile x 20 mile field scales Conduct an integrated field test for fracture creation and/or plugging with data generation, modeling, integration, inversion Field-demonstrate new materials that ensure self-sealing of well bore and pressure isolation Demonstrate measured progress on adaptive control strategies Demonstrate use of risk-assessment strategies to guide subsurface engineering within acceptable seismicity limits
Select 5-year SubTER (Cross-Pillar) Goals Yr Crosscutting SubTER Goal Develop and validate 5 approach to incorporate multiple dynamic sensor datasets and data streams and update predictions of permeability, stress and well integrity up to 20 mile x 20 mile field scales
Conduct an integrated field test for fracture creation and/or plugging with data generation, modeling, integration, inversion
Wellbore
Stress
Monitoring stress evolution in wellbore environment
Coordinated activities, experiments and samples at field study site; controlled seismicity experiments; Multi-physics 3D stress imaging away from borehole; advanced induced seismicity inversions; permeabilitystress relationships and models. Fit-for-purpose Multi-physics monitoring; drilling & completion Fracture creation and fault manipulation experiments at SubTER field observatories
Demonstrated use of riskFiber optics Benchmark induced assessment strategies to characterization of seismicity data; Shortguide subsurface wellbore integrity; term forecasting; Risk engineering within Integrated casing assessment case studies acceptable seismicity limits and seal; diagnostics for wellbore leakage
Perm
Signals
Models to simulate fracture evolution; Frequency modulation approaches for fracture control
Novel tracers; large scale deployment of geophysical arrays; advanced fiber for EM, ER, stress; Advanced stochastic inversion of multitype datasets; real time data processing and assimilation
New Energetic, thermal and waterless fracturing approaches
Large-N geophysical approaches; innovative sensors
Adaptive control technologies, Diagnostic seismic signatures
Select “Early Win” 2 Year SubTER (Cross-Pillar) Goals Year 2: 1. Develop approaches to measure stress tensor away from the borehole 2. Establish risk framework for induced seismicity 3. Demonstrate fracturing by design at the laboratory scale 4. Demonstrate ability to control permeability under different stress states at the laboratory scale 5. Identify the dominant causes of failure in creating largevolume field fracture systems 6. Establish field demonstration site(s), and) design, implement initial field tests
SubTER success is dependent on advancing, coordinating and linking pillar-based achievements to meet SubTER overarching and interim ‘cross-pillar’ goals
Select “Early Win” 2 Year SubTER (Cross-Pillar) Goals Yr
Crosscutting SubTER Goal
2
Develop approaches to measure stress tensor away from borehole
Demonstrate fracturing by design at the laboratory scale
Demonstrate ability to control permeability under different stress states at the laboratory scale
Wellbore
Stress
Perm
Signals
Stress evolution in Multi-physics 3D wellbore stress imaging, Passive environment; and active seismic and Integrated fiber emergent anisotropy autonomous approaches; testing on completion samples from field approaches observatory Physicochemical Novel tracers responses to fracture/flow experimental manipulations; frequency modulation for fracture control; prediction of fracture propagation Experiments, theory Experiments to Adaptive Control and models tested optimize placement Processes, using field observatory and restriction of flow Optimized data samples pathways acquisition
Budget, Organization & Operation
SubTER DOE Tech Team Energy Policy & Systems Analysis • Advisement: Secretary of Energy • Policy: low-carbon and secure energy economy • Technical assistance: States and local entities
Nuclear Energy
Environmental Management
• Policy and technology: disposition of used nuclear fuel and waste • R&D: deep borehole disposal concept
• Modeling and tools: subsurface evaluation and characterization • Cleanup: nuclear weapons legacy
SubTER Tech Team
EPSA
EM NE
CI
FE/O&G
Congressional & Intergovernmental Affairs • Interactions: elected officials, regulators, and stakeholders • Information access for change agents
Fossil Energy/Oil & Gas • R&D and access: clean, affordable traditional fuel sources • R&D: drilling, well construction and integrity, and hydraulic
FE/CO2
EERE/ GTO
Fossil Energy/Carbon Storage • Policy and technology: challenges of CO2 storage to inform regulators, industry, and the public • R&D: CO2 offshore and onshore storage
SC
• Encompasses relevant offices • Reports to Under Secretary for Energy and Science • Identifies and facilitates crosscutting subsurface R&D and policy priorities for DOE • Develops collaborative spend plan and funding scenarios
Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy/ Geothermal Technologies Office • R&D: locate, access, and develop geothermal resources • R&D: access, create, and sustain enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)
Science • Basic research: geophysics and geochemistry, fundamental earth material and subsurface processes
FY15 Saplings kick started pillar-associated collaboration model (DOE, National Labs, University, Industry)
SubTER in FY2016 President’s Budget Request ($M)
FE $120.5
EERE $71
NE $39.5 EM $8 SC $5
Ongoing Subsurface R&D $141.6
Pillaroriented R&D $102.4 (includes NE deep borehole)
Wellbore Integrity $37.8 total, $11.8 uncommitted (FE: $11.8, NE $26) Subsurface Stress / Induced Seismicity $33.9 (FE: $23.9, EE $10) New Subsurface Signals $17.7 (FE:$9.7, EE:$8) Permeability Manipulation $13 (FE: $5, EE$8)
SubTER Organization & Responsibilities Key responsibilities established DOE Executive Committee SubTER Advisory Committee
Core Integrated Consortium Team: • DOE Executive Committee • DOE Tech team & lead National Lab Executive Committee Pillar Lead Team Clear responsibilities with: Checks & balances Partnership Rotating National Lab Leadership (~3 years) Change and priority management
How will NL SubTER foster integration toward common, ambitious challenges? National Lab Virtual Hub or ‘SFA’ SubTER Group Lab-led efforts, some projects with university and industry partners
Industry Advisory Board Leveraging and Partnership (esp. Data & Field sites) Industry-led projects, some tied to SubTER Hub
Lab engagement in FOA activities
Academia
Responsible for coordination mechanisms (retreats, workshops, team communication)
Some academia-led projects tied to SubTER Hub ->university pillar members Engagement of University partners in SubTER
Next Steps & Expected Outcomes
Critical National Energy & Environment need World experts and facilities Aggressive plan Exquisite coordination toward common, ambitious goals + Ripe moment for breakthroughs ---------------------------= Amazing Outcomes
Expected Outcomes Adaptive Control of subsurface fractures, reactions and flow will enable Within 10 Years: A ten-fold increase of U. S. electricity production from geothermal reservoirs Double hydrocarbon production from tight reservoirs Establish practical feasibility of deep borehole disposal Large-scale safe CO2 sequestration to meet targets described in the President’s Climate Action Plan; Concurrent protection of the environment (water and air resources, induced seismicity) 38
Why DOE? Why Now? The SubTER crosscut focuses on solving high-impact challenges that are not sufficiently addressed by the private sector. • Oil and gas sector goals are typically short term, market driven, and cyclical->R&D in this sector has dramatically decreased • The barrier to private-sector uptake in geothermal is a lack of funding for high risk activities necessary to advance the state of the art • In CCS and nuclear storage, no market driver currently exists or to meet Federal obligations • SubTER will advance knowledge and technologies across subsurface energy sectors
DOE has a strong history of funding transformative R&D to enable private sector adoption Notable, related example: DOE’s original investment in oil and gas rock stimulation and innovative drilling-related technologies, which has led to a new energy landscape and prosperity in the US. • SubTER proposes a new paradigm for subsurface RD3, that will lead to altogether new ways to manipulate the subsurface with confidence
SubTER success demands tight and coordinated integration of expertise and facilities, which labs can deliver. •
Excellent momentum, coordinated plan. Concurrence of urgency to launch in FY16/this administration
SubTER well aligned with 2015 DOE Quadrennial Technology Review goal of transformative science and technology solutions to meet the national energy system strategic objectives of: • security/resiliency, economic competitiveness, and environmental responsibility
Next Steps: SubTER @ AGU Dec 2015 Townhall (T:Dec 15) Poster Session –Saplings (F: Dec18) Booth
PVC-Casing
Fracturing Well
Fluid-filled borehole Piezoelectric ML-CASSM source /Receiver array Fiber bundle (Distributed seismic, Temperature, and strain)
Annular ERT/SIP electrodes Annular grout Not to scale
Schematic diagram of planned borehole instrumentation at the Blue Mountain Dome site. The m
Next Steps: Engagement with Core University Geoscience Groups
Next Steps: Engagement with Core University Geoscience Groups
Feb or March, 2016 possibly joint with NSF
Next Steps: Industry Roundtable Houston, Jan 2016 Objectives: Inform and raise awareness of SubTER to industry leaders Get feedback from focus group on SubTER multi-year work plan Ensure that SubTER is not duplicating industry activities Engage potential future SubTER industry partners & board members
Today’s Agenda 9:30-10:00am
10:00-10:30am
Wellbore Pillar
Subsurface Stress & Induced Seismicity
(10:30-10:45am Break)
We seek your input and partnership on SubTER! Complementary Aspects to your Program? Gaps?
10:45-11:15am
Permeability
Duplications? 11:15-11:40 am Signals
11:45-12:00pm
Wrap Up
Opportunities?
Thank You
For More Information: http://energy.gov/subsurface-tech-team http://esd.lbl.gov/subter/home/subsurface-team/ https://twitter.com/SubTERCrosscut https://www.linkedin.com/pub/subter-crosscut/106/332/85
