Projections and Characteristics of the 60+ Population
SHAHLA MEHDIZADEH, KARL CHOW, WENXUAN HUANG, SUZANNE KUNKEL, JANE STRAKER, ANTHONY BARDO
Scripps Gerontology Center An Ohio Center of Excellence
Pike County, Ohio
Projections and Characteristics of the 60+ Population
Project Team: Shahla A. Mehdizadeh, Ph.D. Karl Chow, MBA Wenxuan Huang, MGS Suzanne R. Kunkel, Ph.D. Jane K. Straker, Ph.D. Antony Bardo, MGS
Scripps Gerontology Center Miami University
January 2014
This research was funded as part of a grant from the Ohio General Assembly, through the Ohio Board of Regents to the Ohio LongTerm Care Research Project. For additional information about this funding source see
[email protected]; and for this report see www.ohio-population.org or contact us at Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056; (513) 529-2914;
[email protected] . Suggested citation: Scripps Gerontology Center (2013). Projections and Characteristics of the 60+ Population. Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University, Oxford, OH. Available at www.ohio-population.org
1
Cover.xls
Pike County
This report describes the characteristics of the county’s 60-plus population in 2010, and changes that have occurred since 2000. This chart book also includes population characteristics such as education, income level, marital status, and living arrangement that are shown to be associated with the need for long-term services and supports. There are also charts that compare the older population of the county to the state as a whole.
In addition, the projected size of the 60+ population for 2015-2030 and those expected to experience physical and/or cognitive disability are included. These projections are intended to assist planners, decisions makers, and service providers in preparing for the aging population, particularly those who will likely need assistance.
Profile of 60+ Population
Total Population Percent of Population Age 60+ Percent at or Below Poverty Median Income Percent White Percent Married Percent with High School Diploma Or Higher Education Percent Having Grandchildren Living at Home
2000
2010
4,949 16.6 15.2 $13,400 95.5 60.0
5,920 20.6 15.0 $16,727 95.8 57.5
2,287,424 19.8 11.8 $20,320 88.7 57.5
57,085,908 18.5 11.7 $20,152 78.7 57.7
57.84
71.82
79.34
79.7
1.95
3.06 5.3
3.61 10.4
5.43 8.8
--
Percent of 65+ Medicaid Recipient
Ohio (2010)
U.S. (2010)
Source: United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.
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CountyOverall.xls
Pike County 60+ Population as a Percentage of County Total Population by Age Group, 2000 - 2010 12%
2000
2010
10%
8%
5.9%
6%
4.5%
4.3% 3.8%
4%
3.4% 3.5% 2.8%
2.6% 1.9%
2%
2.2% 1.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.6%
0%
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
County 60+ Population (2000) County 60+ Population (2010) County Total Population (2000) County Total Population (2010) Ohio Total Population (2010) Ohio 60+ Population (2010) Ohio Total Population (2000) Ohio 60+ Population (2000)
85-89
90-94
0.2% 0.1%
95+
4,949 5,920 27,695 28,709 11,536,494 2,287,414 11,353,140 1,963,489
60+ Population as a Percentage of Total Population by Age Group for County and Ohio, 2010 12%
Pike
Ohio
10%
8%
6%
5.9% 5.8% 4.5%
4.2%
4%
3.5%
3.2% 2.6% 2.6%
2.2% 2.1%
2%
1.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5%
0%
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
0.1% 0.1%
95+
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.
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County Reports - Age.xls
Pike County
Distribution of 60+ Population by Education County and Ohio, 2010
Distribution of 60+ Population by Education 2000 - 2010 2000
2010
Pike
Ohio
60%
50% 44.8%
44.8%
41.0%
38.4%
40%
34.3%
30% 23.9%
23.9%
20.5%
18.1%
20%
14.8%
14.6% 14.8%
10.2%
10%
5.4% 6.1%
3.8% 4.2%
3.6%
6.2%
4.2%
6.1%
6.2%
7.6%
2.5%
0% 6th Grade or Less
7th- 12th (No Diploma)
High School Graduate
Some College
6th Grade or 7th- 12th High School Less (No Graduate Diploma)
Bachelor's Graduate Degree Degree
County 60+ Population (2010) County Total Population (2000) County 60+ Population (Men) in 2010 County 60+ Population (Women) in 2010 Ohio 60+ Population (2010)
Some College
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate Degree
5,920 27,695 2,664 3,256 2,287,414
Distribution of 60+ Population by Education and Gender 2010 Men
Women
60%
50%
45.9%
43.5%
40%
30% 25.6% 21.9%
20% 14.3%
10%
15.2%
7.1%
5.8%
3.0%
5.2%
7.4%
5.1%
0% 6th Grade or 7th- 12th (No High School Some College Bachelor's Less Diploma) Graduate Degree
Graduate Degree
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.
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County Reports - Education.xls
Pike County County 60+ Population by Race, 2000
Black NonHispanic, 3.4%
County 60+ Population by Race, 2010
Other Races NonHispanic, 0.5%
Black NonHispanic, 1.8%
Hispanic, 0.7%
Other Races Non-Hispanic, 2.3%
Hispanic, 0.1%
White NonHispanic, 95.8%
White NonHispanic, 95.5%
Ohio 60+ Population County 60+ Population (2000)
by Race, 2010
4,949
County 60+ population (2010) County Total Population (2000)
5,920 27,695
County Total Population (2010) Ohio Total Population (2010)
28,709 11,536,494
Ohio 60+ Population (2010)
Black NonHispanic, 8.6%
Other Races NonHispanic, 1.6%
2,287,414
Hispanic, 1.1%
White NonHispanic, 88.7%
County 60+ Population (2000) County 60+ Population (2010) Ohio 60+ Population (2010)
4,949 5,920 2,287,414
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.
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County Reports - Race-Pie.xls
Pike County Distribution of 60+ Population by Marital Status 2000 - 2010 W/D/S = Widowed/Divorced/Separated 2000
Distribution of 60+ Population by Marital Status County and Ohio, 2010 W/D/S = Widowed/Divorced/Separated
2010
Pike
80.0%
Ohio
70.0% 60.0%
60.0%
57.5%
57.5%
57.5%
50.0% 37.8%
40.0%
39.1%
39.1%
37.6%
30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 2.2%
3.4%
4.9%
3.4%
0.0% Married
W/D/S
Married
Never Married
County 60+ Population (2010) County Total Population (2000) County 60+ Population (Men) in 2010
W/D/S
Never Married
5,920 27,695 2,664
County 60+ Population (Women) in 2010 Ohio 60+ Population (2010)
3,256 2,287,414
Distribution of 60+ Population by Marital Status and Age Group, 2010
Distribution of 60+ Population by Marital Status and Gender, 2010 W/D/S = Widowed/Divorced/Separated
Married
Men
Widowed/Divorced/Separated
Women
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
88.4%
71.1%
69.3%
70.0%
62.2%
60.0%
60.0% 50.0%
Never Married
49.9%
48.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
25.7%
20.0%
20.0%
10.0%
10.0%
5.0%
2.1%
0.0%
Married
W/D/S
53.2%
54.6%
53.9%
62.0%
44.0% 32.9%
41.1%
26.9%
41.5%
34.1%
11.6%
2.0%
4.9%
2.8%
4.3%
70-74 (996)
75-79 (745)
4.6%
3.9%
0.0% 60-64 (1708)
Never Married
Marital Status
65-69 (1288)
80-84 (622)
85-89 (366)
0.0% 90+ (159)
Age Group (Population)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.
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County Reports - Marital Status.xls
Pike County
Proportion of 60+ Population Who Live Alone County and Ohio, 2010
Proportion of 60+ Population Who Live Alone, 2000 - 2010 40% 35%
33.7%
30%
29.6%
29.6%
2010
Pike
27.8%
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2000
County 60+ Population (2010) County 60+ Population (Men) in 2010 County 60+ Population (Women) in 2010 Ohio 60+ Population (2010)
Proportion of 60+ Population Who Live Alone by Age Group, 2010
Ohio
5,920 2,664 3,256 2,287,414
Proportion of 60+ Population Who Live Alone by Gender and Age Group, 2010 Men
Women
87.8%
90% 80% 75.1%
70%
56.4%
60% 49.0%
50%
38.7%
44.9%
40% 30%
31.5%
33.5%
38.3%
35.3%
22.2%
26.8%
20%
26.8%
31.0% 28.4% 20.1%
19.2%
23.6%
15.8%
10% 0% 60-64
37.6%
26.7%
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
60-64 (1708)
90+
65-69 (1288)
70-74 (996)
75-79 (745)
80-84 (622)
85-89 (366)
90+ (159)
Age Group (Population)
Age Group
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.
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County Reports - Living.xls
Pike County Distribution of 60+ Population by Income-to PovertyThreshold Ratio, 2010
Distribution of 60+ Population by Income-to-PovertyThreshold Ratio, 2000 and 2010 2000
Pike
2010
Ohio
60.0%
50.0%
40.0% 32.8%
30.0%
26.3%
26.2%
21.8%
20.7%
20.0% 15.2%
26.2%
25.5%
19.6%
19.9%
16.0%
15.0%
25.5%
19.6% 20.1%
15.0%
13.7%
13.7%
11.8%
15.5%
10.0%
0.0% Less than 1.00
1.00-1.99
2.00-2.99
3.00-3.99
Income-to-Poverty-Threshold Ratio
4 or more
Less than 1.00
1.00-1.99
2.00-2.99
3.00-3.99
4 or more
Income-to-Poverty-Threshold Ratio
Federal Poverty Threshold in 2010*
Persons in family 1 2 3 4 5 6
Poverty Poverty Guideline Guideline (65 (Younger than and older) 65) $ 11,344.00 $ 10,458.00 $ 14,676.00 $ 13,194.00 $ 17,374.00 $ 17,374.00 $ 22,314.00 $ 22,314.00 $ 26,439.00 $ 26,439.00 $ 29,897.00 $ 29,897.00
County 60+ Population in 2000 County 60+ Population in 2010 Ohio 60+ Population in 2010 County 60+ Population (Men) in 2010 County 60+ Population (Women) in 2010
4,949 5,920 2,287,414 2,664 3,256
*U.S. Census Bureau. Poverty thresholds by Size of Family and Number of Children. Retrieved August 5, 2013 from http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/threshld/index.html.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000: Public Use Microdata Sample: 5-Percent. United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.
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County Reports - Poverty 2 Pages.xls
Pike County
Proportion of 60+ Population at 4 or More Times Poverty Threshold Income by Gender and Age Group, 2010
Proportion of County's 60+ Population at or Below Poverty Threshold Income by Gender and Age Group, 2010 Men
Women
Men
Women
80.0% 70.0% 59.7%
60.0% 50.0%
41.8% 40.0%
36.3% 30.5%
30.0%
32.2%
24.9%
12.1%
10.0% 4.2%
0.0% 60 - 64 (1708)
25.4%
22.3%
20.0% 14.2%
34.4%
26.9%
65 - 69 (1288)
9.0%
9.9% 9.3% 70 - 74 (996)
19.8%
8.6%
19.0% 15.0%
14.0% 7.6%
0.0%
5.4% 75 - 79 (745)
16.0%
16.0%
80 - 84 (622)
85 - 89 (366)
60 - 64 (1708)
90+ (195)
65 - 69 (1288)
70 - 74 (996)
75 - 79 (745)
80 - 84 (622)
5.9% 0.0%
85 - 89 (366)
90+ (195)
Age Group (Population)
Age Group (Population)
In 2010, 15% of the 60+ population in Pike County had an annual income at or below the poverty level (about $11,000 for an individual 65 and older). About 26% lived between poverty and two times the poverty income level (between $11,344 and about $22,700). Compared to the state as a whole, a higher percentage of Pike County’s 60+ population had incomes below three times the poverty threshold (60.8% v. 51.8%), and a lower percentage of its older population had incomes in the highest category of at least four times the poverty threshold (25.5% v. 32.8%). Poverty is more prevalent among older women in Pike County: Within nearly all age groups, the percentage of older women in poverty equals or exceeds that of men. On the other hand, the percentage of women with income four or more times poverty threshold income is lower than men only in some age categories.
Source: United States Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. American Community Survey (ACS): Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 2006-2010.
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County Reports - Poverty 2 Pages.xls
Pike County
Projections of 60+ Population as a Percentage of Total Population for County and State, 2010-2030 Pike
Ohio
32.3%
30.2% 26.8% 23.3% 20.6%
28.7%
27.5% 25.2%
22.3%
19.8%
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year Source: Scripps Gerontology Center. (2013). Projections of Ohio's Population with a Disability 2010-2030 . Oxford, OH: Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University.
County Projected 60+ Population with Physical and/or Cognitive Disability, 2010-2030 Year
Total 60+ Population
Severe Physical and/or Cognitive Disability
5,920
378
Percentage of 60+ Population 6.4%
198
Percentage of 60+ Population 3.3%
6,792
425
7,938
478
6.3%
220
3.2%
6.0%
254
3.2%
8,998 9,655
554
6.2%
290
3.2%
642
6.6%
323
3.3%
Number
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Moderate Physical and/or Cognitive Disability Number
Source: Scripps Gerontology Center. (2013). Projections of Ohio's Population with a Disability 2010-2030 . Oxford, OH: Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University.
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County Reports - Disability 2.xls
Pike County
Projections of the Number of People Age 60+ with Severe Physical and/or Cognitive Disability, 2010-2030, by Age 60-69
70-79
80-89
90+
244 196
152
169
162
195
167 137
63 62
2010
100
89
114 78
101
91
83
71
2015
106 97
2020
2025
2030
Year Source: Scripps Gerontology Center. (2013). Projections of Ohio's Population with a Disability 2010-2030 . Oxford, OH: Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University.
Projections of the Number of People Age 60+ with Severe Physical and/or Cognitive Disability Who Have Income Below 200% of Poverty, 2010-2030 Severe Disability 200% of Poverty Income Threshold
378
425
176
156
2010
2015
554
478
228
197
2020
2025
642 266
2030
Year Source: Scripps Gerontology Center. (2013). Projections of Ohio's Population with a Disability 2010-2030 . Oxford, OH: Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University.
For projection methodology see ohio-population.org/DataDownload Click on: Population Projection Methodology For Prevalence of Disability Estimation Methodology: Click on: Estimating Prevalence of Disability
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County Reports - Disability 2.xls
Summary
This presentation of county population trends reveals important indicators of current and future need for long-term services and supports. The county’s population is aging; the share of the population that is 60 years and older will continue to grow over the next 20 years. A higher proportion of the older population experiences poverty, compared to other adults. In addition, those at very advanced ages are mostly women who have outlived their spouses and most likely live alone. The combination of lower income, living alone and higher prevalence of disability among older women are all contributors to the need for long-term services and supports.
