Long Range Pla under-develope -A Case P. J. Stanbridge

Chief

Economist,

Sabi-Limpopo

Authority,

Planning in under-developed countries requires close co-operation between Government and private enterprise. This article illustrates the vast scope of planning in this environment. The Sabi Limpopo Authority is the regional planning and development body for an area of 26,000 square miles, responsible for exploiting a river catchment of nearly twice this size, guiding the investment of nearly E300 million, and creating a livelihood for 2 million people in a previously almost uninhabited corner of Rhodesia. The scheme involves building a dozen major dams, eight new towns, new roads, railways, canals, and developing a complex of farms, industrial estates and marketing outlets.

Salisbury,

S

OZlE

Rhodesia OF

THE

BIGGEST

OF

THE

WORLD’S

development projects initiated during the 1960’s are in Africa, and sume of these. such as the Aswan High Dam and the Orange River project, are well known. Less publicised, but equally big is that being implemented in the south-eastern part of Rhodesia by a statutory body known as the Sabi-Limpopo Authority.

THE

AREA

AND

THE

PROBLEM

In order to appreciate the significance of this project it is first necessary to understand the general geography of the country (see Figures I, 2, and 3). Rhodesia occupies that part of the great African plateau which lies between the Zambezi Valley in the north and the Limpopo River in the south. The central part of the country is occupied by a watershed running in a generally north-easterly direction from the Botswana border to the Mozambique border, where it joins a range of mountains known as the Eastern which run from north to Highlands, south along the border. The main watershed area reaches an average altitude of between 4000 and 5000 feet above sea level and is known locally as the highveld. To the north and north-west the main watershed drops gradually away towards the Zambezi Valley, which it overlooks in the form of an impressive escarpment. Similarly, towards the south and south-east. the main watershed drops gradually towards the Limpopo. ending in a hne of rugged granite country which drops to an extensive plain. This plain occupies the whole of the south-eastern corner of Rhodesia and varies in altitude from about 2000 feet to just under 1000 feet above sea level.

This is known as the lowveld and it covers an area of 15,000 square miles. To complete the topographical terminology of Rhodesia. the local term for those transitional parts of the country lying between the lowveld and the highveld (i.e. from about 2000 feet to about 4000 feet) is the middleveld. By contrast, the Eastern Highlands rise up to over SO00 feet, forming a natural but not impassible barrier between Rhodesia and the coastal plain of Mozambique. Most

of Rhodesia’s

rainfall

occurs

in the

Eastern Highlands, (averaging about 50 inches) and on the northern part of the central watershed, where it averages about 35 inches per annum. The ratnfall tends t$) diminish towards the south and southwest. and particularly with the dr,Jp in altitude. Consequently, the rainfall over the lowveld averages only I6 inches. It should be remembered that Rhodesia is a sub-tropical country, proportion of this rainfall evaporation. Furthermore, cent of Rhodesia’s rainfall the summer months from March, leaving a distinct dry the *inter and early summer

and a high is lost in nearly 90 per occurs during November to season during months.

Most of the African population of Rhodesia live on the middleveld, where the rainfall is adequate, the winter frosts are mitigated, and the broken nature of the country once provided refuge from the marauding African Matabele tribe. European settlement and the main axis of economic development, however. took place along the highveld watershed. Here the climate and topography were best suited to farming and white settlement,

and communications by swollen rivers.

were

least

impeded

LONG RANGE PLANNING

ning in countries Up to the end of the Second World War the development energies of Rhodesia were concentrated on the highveld, and parts of the middleveld, the lowveld being largely avoided because of the heat and the low rainfall, with the result that it remained little more than a thinly populated cattle ranching area. Malaria, tsetse fly and occasional outbreaks of game-carried foot-and-mouth disease further added to the unattractiveness of this part of the country. FIGURE

1. SOUTHERN

The turning point came after the Second World War, when the worldwide shortage of food supplies found Rhodesia unable to expand her agricultural production to any sizeable extent without the opening up of new areas. It was this which prompted serious attention to the irrigation possibilities of the lowveld. The lowveld and surrounding area are drained by two river systems-the Limpopo in the south (with its tributaries, the Umzingwane, Bubi and Nuanetsi) and the

AFRICA

CONGO

\ P,NGOLA

DECEMBER,

1969

\

TANZANIA

Sabi River further east. The flow in these rivers varies greatly between the rainy and dry seasons, but where they cut their way through the granite hills before reaching the lowveld, excellent dam sites are to be found. Furthermore, there are large areas of good soils in the lowveld. One pioneer, Tom MacDougall, had proved the area’s potential as early as 1931 by growing several hundred acres of irrigated sugar cane on the Triangle Ranch. As a result of the new interest, several studies were undertaken which showed that large-scale irrigation was feasible, but they also drew attention to the enormous capital cost and cast doubts on whether the project could be viable. The political climate during the Federal era of 1953-63 inhibited further progress on the main scheme, but in 1958 interest in the area was shown by South African sugar interests, who bought up the small sugar estate on Triangle Ranch and entered into an agreement with the Rhodesian Government whereby the latter constructed the Kyle Dam further up the neighbouring Mtilikwe River. An adjoining ranch, Hippo Valley, soon followed suit by agreeing to take some of the water from the Kyle Dam and to augment the water supply, persuaded the Government to construct a second dam-the Bangalaa little below the Kyle. By the early 1960’s the two estates were between them developing nearly 60,000 acres of irrigated sugar cane. The total investment in this one scheme alone eventually amounted to f31 million, of which over f22 million were contributed by private enterprise. With world sugar prices then rising, the success of the venture contrasted with generally stagnant

39

RHODESIA

Sabi-L lmpopo Authorltes Area International

Boundary

Railway Dam

Rhodesia in relation to Afrxa

FIGURE conditions economy, given to project.

\

2. of the rest of the Rhodesian and renewed attention was the Sabi-Limpopo irrigation

CREATION OF A STATUTORY AUTHORITY Two official enquiries were instituted. The Sabi Development Committee was re-convened in 1961 to advise on the future of the project and its implementation. This Committee concluded that the project should be proceeded with and that “an administrative authority be set up to ensure the effective overall coordination, control and operation” of the scheme. As a direct result of this, a SabiLundi Development Board was constituted

40

- --.__

in 1963 to submit specific recommendations on the creation of such an Authority carrying statutory powers. Although the question of the viability of the project had not been resolved at this stage, during the course of these enquiries it was felt that the implementation of the project would give rise to a new growth point in the economy, and by its labourintensive- nature would go a long way towards mopping up the excess labour force in the country. Moreover, being oriented towards the productron of export crops, the project would help Rhodesia to import the capital which it badly needed elsewhere. it was On the question of organization. were felt that Government ministries

neither equipped for, nor mentally oriented towards large-scale development work, nor did they possess the commercial approach which was essential to a project of this size which was expected to pay its way. In particular, the inter-ministerial committees which had been responsible for the project hitherto, had shown a marked inherent inability to cope with the situation. By contrast, it was difficult to ignore the success of the Tennessee Valley Authority, which had been faced with a somewhat similar project in the 1930’s. The committees which had been set up one after the other to consider different aspects of the problem, accordingly envisaged and favoured a statutory authority

LONG

RANGE

PLANNING

FIGURE 3. SABI-LIMPOPO

AUTHORITY:

IRRIGATION

PROJECTS:

S.E. LOWVELD

OF RHODESIA

31”/

30

xm (‘$

‘YI

Condadam We

Exlstmg Dams ,,,,

Proposed

Dams

Existing Irrigated

Areas

~

Proposed .

. .

. .

. . .

irrigated

areas

Existing and proposed

canals

3030, Existing roads i-.-.-

Exlstmg railways Sabl-Ltmpopo

Authority

area boundary

line

K.

.

Melsette?,

Yi

\

i \ i

I i

.._ ..

i iL-

i

I

30

DECEMBER,

REPUBLIC

1959

OF SOUTH

AFRICA

I

I

I

I

I

I

Miles 31’

32’

33’1

41

departments, except by agreement. Also. the actual area over which the Authority’s powers applied was restricted to the development area itself. excluding the greater part of the cutchment. Arbttrary and unsatisfactory though this limitation may be. it has so far represented no serious obstacle to the Authority’s work.

FIGURE

4:

THE

(Photograph

HIPPO

VALLEY

By Ministry

for the following reasons: (1) Such an Authority would be able to concentrate its attention wholly on the project and could employ properly trained personnel. (2) Such a body would be strong enough and knowledgeable enough to co-ordinate the activities of Government departments and other bodies effectively. (3) Such an Authority would be strong enough to compete successfully with other contenders for Government funds. body, fully (4) As an autonomous accountable for its activities in a commercial sense, it would be able to divorce itself from habitual civil service attitudes and could resist most civil service pressures inimical to the success of the project, yet would be accountable to Government for its activities. Such an Authority was more likely (3 to attract outside investment than Government itself, being insulated to some extent against political influences (then very unpredictable in Africa) and being in a position to be directly responsible to the investor for the success of its activities. of such (6) There was little likelihood a body being wound up as a result of a Government economy drive or a change in Government policies. There was, naturally, a great deal of

42

ESTATES

of Information,

CITRUS Salisbury,

ORCHARDS Rhodesia)

opposition to the proposal from interested parties. The strongest opposition was founded on the fact that to be effective the Authority must have wide ranging powers which should embrace the whole catchment area as well as the lowveld. As this would effectively bring nearly half the country under the proposed Authority, thereby creating “a Government within a Government”, it would threaten to hinder gravely or be suspected of usurping the functions of central Government ministries. THE SABI-LIMPOPO AUTHORITY

This problem was successfully circumvented in the Sabi-Limpopo Authority Act of 1964. This set up a permanent body whose functions were to “exploit, conserve and utilise the water resources of the area, with the object of promoting, facilitating and expediting the economic development of the area in the national interest”. To achieve this, the Authority was empowered to plan. promote and co-ordinate under takings for the economic and social development of the area, whether related directly or indirectly to the utilisation of the water resources of the area or otherwise. The powers of the Authority are thus very wide, but a measure of Government restraint is provided for in that most of its activities are subject to the prior approval of the appropriate Minister. Thus, there is no question of the Authority usurping the functions of Government

The wide powers of the Authority are essential in that it was recognised from the clutset that the development of the SabiLimpopo project would involve the comprehensive creation of a new regional economv. The construction of dams and distribution canals by the Authority and the initiation of big irrtgation schemes would. require the construction of new roads and railways in a hitherto almost unpopulated area, the development of new towns, industries and marketing outlets, and the creation of new social services such as hospitals. schools, airports and local government machinery. The Sabi-Limpopo Authority is thus a regional development body, as well as being an organisation designed to develop a specific project. Apart from the planning of this development and the actual exploitation of water resources. the task of the Authority is essentially to promote and co-ordinate all these subsequent developments in the secondary and tertiary sectors. Thus, hospitals are provided by the Ministry of Health, schools by the Ministry of Education, railways by Rhodesia Railways, and most industrial processing and commercial services by private enterprise. Only where a need in these fields could not be met through the normal channels is it the intention of the Authority itself to undertake the necessary farming operations or construct and operate a necessary factory, hospital or trading store. The basic policy of the Authority is to promote rather than displace private enterprise in all those fields where such enterprise is considered to be appropriate. The application of this rather complex role in practice is best illustrated by experience to date, but first it may be helpful to describe briefly the present structure of the Authority. The Authority is controlled by a Board, the Chairman and Dtrectors of which are prominent businessmen, farmers and retired public officials with specialist experience. The staff structure of the Authority is divided into an Economics department, a Planning department (concerned with physical planning and development in the agricultural field), an Engineering department and an Administrative department. The last is concerned with accounting, staffing and legal aspects. These departments are all responsible, through a General Man-

LONG

RANGE

PLANNING

EARLY

FIGURE (Photograph

5: TRIANGLE ESTATES: By Ministry of Information,

ager, to the Board. Where the Authority has developed its own commercial undertakings, other than water supply works, it has done this through the creation of subsidiary companies. The headquarters of the Authority is in Salisbury, over 200 miles from the main centre of its operations. This is to enable regular contact to be maintained with Government departments, finance houses and other institutions. Regular contact with the lowveld is maintained through a Regional Office and a continual travelling to and fro of administrative and technical staff. Aircraft and Land Rovers are the two basic modes of travel and communication, supplemented by the telex and the telephone.

DECEMBER,

1969

SUGAR Salisbury,

MILL Rhodesia)

Finally, it should be pointed out that the financial basis of the Authority is two-fold : (a) the raising of investment capital on the world and local money markets or direct from Government: (b) the repayment of these loans from sale of water to farms, mines, industrial and domestic users. Supplementary incomes are derived from such other commercial activities as the Authority deems necessary to the further development of the region. In all its operations and policies the Authority is expected to maintain a satisfactory balance between commercial profitability and the national and public interest. This again is best illustrated by way of examples. (See Figure 6).

DEVELOPMENTS

The Sabi River has as its main tributary the Lundi. which in turn has several important tributaries in the Tokwe, Mtilikwe and the Chiredzi Rivers. The first of these rivers to be fully exploited was the Mtilikwe, on which the Rhodesian Government constructed the Kyle and Bangala dams to supply irrigation water to the Triangle and Hippo Valley sugar estates. (Figures 4 and 5). When the Authority came into being in 1964, the two dams and development of the Triangle Estate had more or less been completed. but the extension of the main supply canal to Hippo Valley was still taking place, and the clearing and development of the latter estate was being undertaken at a breath-taking pace. The land was being cleared of virgin bush, ripped. levelled. contoured, ploughed, fertilised and planted to sugar cane at the rate of 60 acres a day. As far as the eye could see was an exhilarating confusion of dust, bulldozers. belching black exhaust, the clanking of heavy chains and the crash of big trees. In less than three years the European population in the area mushroomed by 65 per cent to well over iOO0, and the African population by 220 per cent to 54,000. With so much development taking place so quickly, the Authority’s first task was one of co-ordination. For instance, it has been said that, the week after the surveyors had pegged out the line of the main canal between Triangle and Hippo Va!ley. the Roads Department surveyed the route of the future main road across it; the Railways followed by planning the railway line through where the canal and the road were to be laid, and finally the Department of Civil Aviation surveyed the site of the future Buffalo Range runway across all three. This may be an exaggeration, but it highlights the problems of rapid and unto-ordinated development. Similarly. it was found that the Ministry of Education had no knowledge of the rapid population changes taking place in this area, and had accordingly failed to budget for future schools, in spite of the urgency of the situation. Nor had the Ministry of Health planned any hospitals or clinics. These are but a few examples of the task of co-ordination, liaison and publicity with which the Authority was faced at its inception. Two new towns, Triangle and Chiredzi, were developing in the area, and by persuading Government to recognise the latter as the regional administrative centre. the Authority averted the plans of many Government departments to establish their regional offices. magistrates courts and other key buildings in Triangle, whilst other departments were planning

43

to construct theirs in Chiredzi. Within six months the Authority had justified its existence as a planning and co-ordinating body alone. By exerting high level pressure it was able to persuade Government of the need for a public hospital in Chiredzi, an agricultural research station in the lowveid. and a properly constituted local government administration in place of the private township company. The Authority was, however, too late to prevent the Government from establishing a settler farmer scheme based on sugar monoculture. the unwisdom of which greater expertise and local knowledge could have foreseen. At this time work was already proceeding on a third dam and canal costing f2.8 million-the Manjirenji-located this time on the nearby Chiredzi River. This was to have supplied water to a third sugar estate. owned by Mauritian interests, in the Mkwasine area about 15 miles east of Chiredzi township. Unfortunately (as it appeared at the time), the c’ollapse of the world sugar price in 1965 caused this venture to go into liquidation. Apart from the problem of what to do with the water from the Manjirenji Dam, the closing weeks of 1965 saw Rhodesia’s Declaration of Independence and the imposition of worldwide economic sanctions against the country. FIGURE 6. DIAGRAMMATIC SAWLIMPOPO AUTHORITY

has. with the aid of the Authority’s planning and development staff, expanded this estate to some 18.000 acres under irrigated crops. notably wheat, cotton. seed maize. rice and soya beans. Although the South-Eastern Development Company is fully responsible for its own operations. adequate supervision from the Authority is ensured by an interlocking directorate and the advisory role played by the Authority’s specialist staff. Despite the fact that the South-Eastern Development Company is a whollyowned subsidiary of the Authority. this was brought about by necessity rather than inclination, because the aim of the Authority is eventually to sell the estate to private enterprise or alternatively to enter into a partnership arrangement with private enterprise. With the proceeds so obtained the Authority will have additional development funds at its disposal. It was also the intention. in keeping with Government policy, to develop part of the SouthEastern Development Company estate for European settler farmers. Experience sofar. however, has shown that this area is much better suited to large-scale. highly mechanized estate methods of farming than to small family farms, the viability of which, in the face of the heavy overhead costs implicit in irrigation farming, is still

One way of reducing Rhodesia’s imports was by the local production of wheat, for Rhodesian research had providentially at last succeeded in developing strains sutted to the Rhodesian climate. On the basis of a loan of f+ million provided by the Government, and repayable over 20 years at 6$ per cent interest, the Authority immediately planned and developed the first stage of a new irrigation scheme at Mkwasine. This was to use the Manjirenji water and be devoted to the growing of winter wheat as its main crop. Such was the urgency of the situation that the Authority. with its own staff and the aid of contractors, conceived. planned, cleared levelled. ploughed, fertilised and planted 2400 acres of wheat. including a 23-mile canal. night storage dams. a sprinkler irrigation system. the erection of a 26-mile power line, and housing for staff and labour. from start to finish, all within five months. The dam itself was not completed until several months later in mid-1966, although water was being drawn off for irrigation as early as February. The Authority’s estate at Mkwasine, was, on completion, handed over to a wholly-owned subsidiary company, known as the South-Eastern Development Company, created specifically to run this estate. In the intervening three years, the company

REPRESENTATION

OF PRESENT

Public and private investors

FUNCTIONS

AND

OPERATIONS

OF THE

Goverment departments

S.L.A.. Promotlc-

Agricultural

44

mining

Et tertiary

development

LONG

RANGE

PLANNING

npen to some question. Consequently this aspect has been deferred on the Authority’s advice. Although particular attention has here been paid, for the sake of example, to the South-Eastern Development Company, it should be noted that during the same period the Authority also planned and developed two other estates further east, on the Sabi River, of 2200 acres and 800 acres under irrigation respectively. These, however. are intended basically as pilot projects for the very much larger Sabi irrigation complex, the next stage of which will bring approximately 22,000 additional acres under irrigation during the next four years. With the transfer to the Authority in the next few months of the existing dams and main supply canals, the total value of the Authority’s assets will be f17 million, approximately half of which will be represented by water storage and supply works and the remainder by agricultural estates. LONG

TERM

PLAN

One of the first tasks undertaken by the Authority at its inception was the preparation of a long-term General Development Plan. This was the first comprehensive attempt to assess the economic potential of the region. The Plan began with a detailed exposition of the history, geology, topography, climate, drainage pattern, soils and vegetation of the region and described its economy, population structure and social and administrative organisation. The Plan then discussed the aims of development and listed the various key problems which the region faced. For climatic reasons the Plan emphasised the crucial importance of water resources as the key to all other development. In its assessment of these resources it concluded that, by the construction of some dozen major dams, a total of 3.3 million acre feet of water could be made available each year, and that a further 0.5 million acre feet of regenerated but usable water could also be made available. It estimated furthermore that there were 1.3 million acres of good irrigable soils in the lowveld. In order to bring the two together. the Plan set out fairly detailed proposals for the development of two major irrigation complexes. one based on the Sabi River and the other on the Lundi, with smaller projects based on the Nuanetsi and the Limpopo, giving a total net area of approximately 715,000 acres under irrigation. After assessing the ecological and marketing aspects. the report proposed that the main crops should be cotton, sugar. linseed. citrus fruit, wheat, seed

DECEMBER,

1969

beans, burley tobacco, maize, and fodder crops for beef cattle. The capita1 cost of the whole irrigation complex, including processing plant, communications and services was estimated at about f280 million at 1965 prices, of which f34 million had already been invested. By comparison. the gross annual value of agricultural production was estimated at f109 million-a figure which has subsequently been revised to f 149 million. Rhodesia’s Gross Domestic Product in 1968 was f390 million. The population which the project could support was reckoned at 1.9 million, compared with the total population of Rhodesia in 1965 of just over 4 million. To serve this population the plan proposed the creation of eight new towns in addition to Triangle and Chiredzi. It was recommended in the Plan that this development be phased over a 25-year period. This was considered to be the maximum rate of implementation that could be achieved without creating inflationery pressures or otherwise overtaxing the national economy, or allowing early mistakes to be diagnosed, assessed. and rectified in good time before they could be repeated. The Plan also examined the hydro-electric potential of the more promising dams (about IOOMW) and the mineral potential, there being large deposits of low-grade coal and high-grade iron ore, with smaller deposits of copper, chrome and other minerals. The possibility of establishing a large thermal power station, based on the open-cast mining of low-grade coal, was considered and was subsequently reported on favourably by consultants. On the subject of tourist potential. the Plan noted the particular ‘attractions of the dams themselves, the abundant game in the area, and certain natural attractions such as the Clarendon Cliffs and the Mateke Hills. It recommended the promotion of suitable access roads, hotels, rest camps. the fish stocking of dams and the establishment of an extensive national park and game reserve in the Gona-reZhou area of the south-east. Apart from the lowveld. the Authority is also responsible for the development of the southern part of the Eastern Highlands. Here. because of the unique problems and characteristics of this area, the Development Plan proposed a separate and locally-based planning and development agency of the Authority which, among other things, would carry out a detailed ecological survey of the region. It would also promote the production of tea, coffee. fruit, woodpulp and particle board, and the exploitation of the hydroelectric power (about 50MW) and other water resources of the area.

Finally. the General Development Plan included recommendations as to the most suitable pattern and phasing of the road and rail network in the area, including a shorter rail outlet to the east coast at Beira. Although the Authority has acquired a great deal of experience in the last few years and several new dam sites have been discovered, the general direction and pattern of future development, as laid down in the General Development Plan, remains substantially unchanged. It must be admitted that recent political developments have to a large extent isolated the Authority from the main sources of investment capital originally envisaged, resulting in a slower rate of development than had been planned, and a heavy dependence on Government and internal sources, both for the supply of funds and in respect of their detailed use. However, it is expected that the ownership of the three existing dams and their main distribution canals will be transferred to the Authority during the current year. When this takes place, liability for their maintenance, operation and capital charges will rest with the Authority, which will also benefit from the receipt of water charges. These water charges are fully economic and the expectation is that the majority of the irrigation schemes which will one day comprise the Sabi-Limpopo complex will also be viable in the commercial sense. In its assessment of these projects, however, the Authority undertakes a full benefit-cost analvsis, not only to determine the full ramificaiions of each scheme. but also, in the event that a subsidy is required. to determine whether a subsidy would be justified in the light of alternative projects. As the regional planning and development body for an area of 26.000 square miles, responsible for exploiting a river catchment of nearly twice this size, guiding the investment of nearly &300 million and creating a livelihood for 2 million people in a previously almost uninhabited corner of Rhodesia. the Sabi-Limpopo Authority will be playing an important role in the development of Africa for many years to come. If its knowledge and experience can one day be applied in other parts of the world, it will more than have fulfilled the high hopes of those who helped to launch it.=

REFERENCES (1) Sabi-Lompopo Authority-Genera/ Development Plan, 196511990. (1965). (2) Sabi-Lundi Development Board-Reporf. (3) !$%)‘Development the Fufure of the (1961).

Committee--Report on Sabi Development Scheme.

45