Sector News Flash, 18 August 2014

Plantation

Overweight (Maintained)

Risks

Indonesia May Cap Foreign Ownership At 30%

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Macro Growth Value

2 A Reuters report on Friday said that Indonesia is drafting a new bill to limit foreign ownership in plantations to no more than 30%. We view this as a negative for Indonesia’s long-term sector growth prospects. We believe there are many grey areas and potentially many loopholes. The move is also surprising, coming from a pro-business new President, in our view.

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The new bill. Indonesia’s Parliament is looking to wrap up discussions with the Government on the draft bill soon, which if passed, will limit foreign ownership of plantations to no more than 30%. Herman Khaeron, vice chairman of the parliamentary committee for agriculture, said if the bill becomes law, it would take effect retrospectively. However, this interpretation was rejected by the Agriculture Ministry and industry officials. Companies will be given five years to comply. Lacking details at the moment. We believe such a harsh law may not become a reality, noting that the country has just had a change of Government, although the previous Government had also introduced measures with a nationalistic slant. It would also be difficult to implement retrospectively, given the large number of companies that may be affected and the need to find buyers to take up those assets. Nevertheless, if implemented, we believe it would be negative for the sector’s long-term growth and could weaken the IDR further. Malaysian plantations likely the biggest losers. Malaysian companies which own plantations in Indonesia are most likely the biggest losers, especially those already getting significant earnings contributions from their Indonesian operations, such as Sime Darby (SIME MK, NEUTRAL, FV: MYR10.40), Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK, NEUTRAL, FV: MYR26.00) and TSH Resources (TSH MK, BUY, FV: MYR3.91). Least-impacted Malaysian companies. Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP MK, BUY, FV: MYR9.08) and Felda Global Ventures (FGV MK, BUY, FV: MYR5.07) have no Indonesian plantations; IOI Corp (IOIC MK, NEUTRAL, FV: MYR5.50), TH Plantations (THP MK, NEUTRAL, FV: MYR2.03) and TDM (TDM MK, NEUTRAL, FV: MYR1.07) have very small planted areas there. Although half of their planted areas are in Indonesia, both Genting Plantations (GENP MK, BUY, FV: MYR13.25) and IJM Plantations’ (IJMP MK, BUY, MYR4.34) earnings contributions from their Indonesian operations are minimal currently. Nevertheless, there could be writedowns on these companies’ Indonesian investments in the event they are to pare down their stakes at a loss. P/E (x)

P/B (x)

Yield (%)

Dec-15F

Dec-15F

Dec-15F

IDR34,375

12.1

3.0

SGD1.17

SGD1.66

11.2

2.2

SGD2.11

SGD2.31

11.8

2.1

2.5

BUY

MYR10.56

MYR13.25

17.2

2.0

1.3

BUY

Golden Agri

SGD0.54

SGD0.64

13.4

0.6

1.7

BUY

IJM Plantation

MYR3.64

MYR4.34

13.2

1.9

3.6

BUY

Jaya Tiasa Holdings

MYR2.26

MYR2.95

na

na

-

Sampoerna Agro

IDR2,195

IDR2,775

9.3

1.2

-

Saraw ak Oil Palms

MYR6.43

MYR9.08

11.3

1.6

1.5

BUY

Ta Ann Holdings

MYR3.99

MYR5.40

10.8

1.2

3.0

BUY

TSH Resources

MYR3.55

MYR3.91

16.1

2.2

1.2

BUY

Com pany Nam e

Price

Target

Astra Agro Lestari

IDR26,050

Alvin Tai, CFA +603 9207 7628

Bumitama Agri Ltd

[email protected]

First Resources Genting Plantations

Hoe Lee Leng +603 9207 7605 [email protected]

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Source: Company data, RHB

4.4 -

Rating BUY BUY

BUY BUY

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Plantation 18 August 2014

 Our questions

Definition of foreign ownership. We believe the grey area probably pertains to the definition of foreign ownership. For example, i) Will Singapore-listed Indonesian plantation companies be deemed foreign? ii) What about Jakarta-listed plantation companies such as Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ, BUY, FV: IDR34,375), which is controlled by the Jardine Matheson Group? iii) Will foreign ownership be defined as strategic ownership only or include investors? iv) Would listing on the Jakarta Stock Exchange solve the issue? v) In the event of non-compliance with the 30% limit ruling, where are the funds to buy these assets come from?

 Sector impact

 Who will be impacted?

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Potential negative sector impact, if implemented. We believe the 30% foreign ownership, if strictly implemented, may have negative repercussions for the sector and Indonesia as a whole. We see potential negative impact on: 1.

Sector long-term growth. The sector still needs foreign investment. A broad sector divestment may result in a prolonged slowdown in Indonesia’s palm oil production growth, which we expect to start decelerating in 2017.

2.

Weaker IDR on negative FDI flows. We wonder if Indonesia could afford to take such a measure, which could potentially result in negative foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and the weakening of the IDR.

We believe it is still early days. Although the previous Government had implemented nationalistic measures, we believe there is a possibility that such a harsh law might not materialize, since the country has just had a change of Government. However, should it materialise, Malaysian companies which own plantations in Indonesia would most likely be the losers, in our view. Broadly, we project four categories of impact: 1.

Sizeable planted areas and earnings. Malaysian companies which are already deriving sizeable earnings from their Indonesian plantations such as Kuala Lumpur Kepong (around 40%), Sime Darby (around 20%) and TSH Resources (around 80%), are likely to be hardest hit.

2.

Sizeable planted areas but insignificant earnings. Earnings impact on Genting Plantations and IJM Plantations is likely to be minimal currently (<5%), but may become sizeable going forward since Indonesia currently makes up half of their planted areas.

3.

Insignificant planted areas and earnings. We are of the view that companies that have little planted areas in Indonesia such as IOI Corp, TH Plantations and TDM may be among the least impacted. IOI Corp also has a partner ie Bumitama Agri (BAL SP, BUY, FV: SGD1,66), which is a natural buyer if the former needs to pare down its stake in its Indonesian asset.

4.

Zero planted areas and earnings. No impact on Sarawak Oil Palms and Felda Global Ventures as they do not have any presence in Indonesia.

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