POPULIST LEADERS: ACHIEVEMENTS & CHALLENGES PART II

POPULIST LEADERS ACHIEVEMENTS & CHALLENGES PART I INTRODUCTION Populism in today’s day and age can be defined as an ideology that caters to the general populace and is directed against the allegedly corrupt elite. It can be also be looked at as an antonym to pluralism, that provides equal validity to varied ideologies. Populists are leaders who claim to be in cohesion with the pulse of a nation and believe that they are the only representatives of the people’s aspirations. Populism is also looked as a theory that has the capability of bringing a country’s government and the population closer to each other, given that populism revolves around ensuring that the voice of the people should be heard. The mounting public disaffection against the status-quo and apprehensions against technological changes, globalization and economic inequality combined with a sense of nativism, xenophobia, racism and rising Islamophobia have contributed significantly in the ascent of populism across the globe. Populists in multiple countries are regarded as individuals who are responsible for the creation of two homogenous groups in a society, the elitist (a group that has ruled the country for a considerable period of time) and the supporters of populist measures (directed at fulfilling the aspirations of a minority/majority of the population). That said, populism differs from region to region and cannot be defined by a certain set of parameters. However, it can be cited that populists are rule-breakers that transgress on the basic rules of the political game, that have been in place for centuries. Further, these leaders share some common characteristics within themselves, such as short, simple slogans, direct language, coarse behavior, multifaceted engagement with the public and a supposed hard working persona, that they believe engenders them to the masses. Populists are also known to challenge the western-centric approach to a liberal democracy, that encompasses values such as civic rights, secularism and the rule of law. May it be religious-conservative Recep Erdogan of Turkey, secular-nationalist Geert Wilders of the Netherlands or secularauthoritarian Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, the rise of populism across the world has raised concerns of the formation of a new order that might lead to divisions in society, restrict the global economy and might even lead to internal and external conflicts in a particular region. 

Having said that, the fact remains that certain populists have risen to the helm of affairs from humble beginnings and are recognized as individuals who can understand the socio-economic problems faced by a majority of the population. This report sheds light on a few significant populist leaders with diverse ideologies and certain similarities. 

Russia France

USA

China

Turkey India Philippines Venezuela

Somalia

ACHIEVEMENTS Vladimir Putin, currently serving as President of the Russian Federation, continues to maintain high approval and popularity ratings amongst the Russian electorate. Such surveys are conducted by the state-run Centre for Public Opinion Research (VTSIOM). Although, this can be attributed to President Putin’s continued projections of tactical fortitude in context of challenging the United States of America on vital geopolitical frontiers including Crimea and Syria, as well as anti-corruption stances. Overall, President Putin is widely perceived as an ideal statesman placing the interests of Russia and its people first, a notion likely to sustain popular support amidst the presence of relatively weaker and perceivably static opposition parties. This can be evidenced by the September 2016 legislative polls which recorded the majority of gains for the United Russia party. Putin’s ascent to power in 2000 following the resignation of Boris Yeltsin in 1999, expressed openness to partnerships with NATO and broadly, Western powers. In the 17 years since, Putin in stark contrast to Yeltsin’s cooperation with the West (albeit reluctantly with NATO), has since reversed. Putin’s demonstrated a record of Presidency and Prime Ministership since 2000 illustrate his continued abilities to leverage and exercise political influence within Russia. More so, his management of Russia-US relations enhance domestic perceptions of Putin, as they are widely seen as the former strong arming the latter; invoke nationalist sentiments, e.g. Crimea and Syria.  The philosophy incorporated consistently by Putin and his supporters with regards to Crimea and the Ukrainian conflict centered on the expansion of NATO’s influence and presence in Eastern Europe as a threat to Russia. In turn, this narrative translated into popular public support from Russians for Putin’s, albeit risky, maneuver in the annexation of Crimea.

While the development was surprising, it is notable to highlight that the cornerstone for Putin’s doctrine in asserting control over the Russia’s former territories, considered its sphere of influence, was set during the 2008 Russo-Georgian War. Since 2008, the Russian Federation reformed its indigenous military capabilities under Putin’s governance, giving it the ability to at the least, resist NATO’s influence and thereby, what Russia perceives as Western powers’ interference. Domestic politics to incorporates Putin’s rigid stance, where dissent and opposition are met with little or no reception. As explained further below with the 2006 arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the crackdown against the 2011-2012 anti-corruption protests serve as an apt example. Fines and criminal charges were levied against opposition protesters, incorporating forced labor and imprisonment as the consequences. Putin’s statements centered on the argument that he supported the principle of fighting corruption, although did not want to see that as a tool being used for expanding political influence.  Invoking nationalist sentiments, Putin intensified rhetoric regarding alleged “traitors” of Russia, including opposition parties who were undermining the country’s progress. A leading representative of the opposition, former Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov was assassinated in front of the Kremlin in Moscow, in February 2015. The perpetrators were allegedly security officers associated to Ramzan Kadyrov, Head of the Chechen Republic, who in turn shares favorable relations with Putin. Kadyrov was later awarded a medal by Putin, the ‘Order of Honour’. Despite being planned months in advance, the timing of the award following shortly after Kadyrov’s praise of one of Nemtsov’s assassins proved controversial. Censorship and surveillance over the internet have led to a little room for free expression, given the blacklisting of opposition websites in 2013. Additionally, bloggers are required to register their real identities with Russian authorities. NGOs receiving foreign funding have also come under scrutiny, where they are categorized as ‘foreign agents’ and are subject to stringent audits, failure of which involves steep fines. 

Pro-separatist Chechens are also a crucial component of Putin’s crackdown umbrella, where his approach has led to a reduction in violence albeit at the price of alleged human rights excesses. The placement of Russia as a culturally moral power as a tool of enhancing proRussian narratives for domestic consumption has drawn collateral consequences in turn; the ban on LGBT-related material and propaganda has incentivised violence and discrimination against the community.  It is important to examine how Putin has impacted on ground perceptions, particularly with regards to economic reforms. Following the reforms in the 1990s and 1998 financial crisis, Putin’s response to incorporating economic reforms continue to remain key influencers of his domestic popularity. Putin namely, cuts taxes for Russian companies aimed at stimulating business and growth, while simultaneously nationalizing private entities, particularly in the oil and energy industry. In turn, oil became the primary export of Russia, an achievement which helped give Russians substantial disposable income. Notably, this also involved the breakup of political rival Mikhail Khodorkovsky's oil company Yukos. Between 1996 and more so between 2000 and 2003, Yukos produced approximately 20 percent of the country’s oil output. Khodorkovsky’s advocation of democratization and reforms are suspected to have prompted his arrest, as opposed to allegations of unpaid taxes and declaration of bankruptcy, however, this remains under speculation. Between 2004 and 2007. The result was the seizure of the assets of Yukos by Russian state authorities. Overall, however, rising oil prices helped facilitate financial inflow into the Russian economy, facilitating the enhancement of living standards as a result of expanding disposable incomes, a landmark achievement Putin is highly regarded for amongst Russians. Additionally, broadened incomes also led to a rise in the Russian population.  That said, the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 stymied progress in this regard, given Russia’s over-dependency on oil exports and lack of progress in diversifying the country’s economy. Sanctions by the United States and fall in global oil prices have exacerbated this further, especially with regards to the depreciation of the Russian Ruble in 2014. In turn, deteriorating relations with Western powers has in recent years, enhanced Russia’s pivot towards Asian markets, including its key ally, China. Overall, Putin’s management of domestic and foreign policies have helped him achieve strategic goals and ensure popular support till present, although challenges remain. 

CHALLENGES The depreciation of the Ruble from sanctions and further, due to low oil prices, are challenges Putin understands well. His projection of Russia’s prospects for economic recovery has been illustrated with the appointment of a new Minister of Economy Yevgeny Yelin by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in 2016. The appointment followed the arrest of former Minister of Economy Alexei Ulyukayev for allegedly accepting 2 million USD in bribes, involving a deal with oil company Rosneft. In turn, Putin’s requirement to project an anti-corruption image factors into this, while such developments at a time the economy faces obstacles, potentially harm public perception and support. While overcoming sanctions will not be enough and developing as well as diversifying its economy will take time, Russia will be keen on expanding its trade and economic cooperation with countries beyond Europe, given deteriorating relations. As 2.5 billion USD worth of bilateral economic deals with Japan were portrayed as progress towards Putin’s economic ambitions. However, Putin has a larger task ahead of convincing Asian powers, including US allies, and providing a solution for balancing energy needs and relations with the US, or a compelling alternative.   The costs of war in Ukraine transcend beyond US Dollars and Russian Rubles. As Russian military personnel is known to have been involved and killed at times in the armed conflict, Putin faces the task of maintaining popular support for Russia’s geopolitical ambitions in Ukraine. Amidst sanctions, Ukraine has turned out to be an economically expensive venture. Economic sustenance of Crimea, in addition, has drawn on Russia’s stretched financial resources. More so, isolation by Western powers in addition to no progress towards ceasefire agreements despite participation in dialogues illustrates dim prospects for a resolution. Thus, overcoming or having Western sanctions reversed, will remain an increasing priority for Russia. 

With condemnation by Western powers and international pressure on Russia, the country sustains an image of the international blame for deteriorating the conflict in Syria. Although much of this can be attributed to Western media perceptions and anti-Russia rhetoric, Putin’s management of pressure remains a challenge where his approach to bilateral relations have witnessed an eastward focus.   Regardless, it remains unlikely that US President Donald Trump will challenge Putin on Syria. Even so, Russia’s end objectives in Syria remain unclear. It is uncertain how Russia intends to help President Assad and reach a political settlement, or annihilate his rebel foes, in addition to the reconstruction of Syria. Russia’s objectives at the moment project an ability to confront the West in the Middle East where US failures are profoundly known. Beyond projectionism of military capabilities, this also bears significant costs for Russia as an investment of resources.  While NATO initially perceived to be on the backfoot on confronting Russia, in recent months has formulated a more assertive response as agreed in the 2016 NATO summit. In turn, this has translated into increased deployments in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Bulgaria. Until then, it remained speculative as to whether NATO would respond to a military confrontation with Russia over smaller territories in Eastern Europe at an expensive cost. This is more so, given US President Donald Trump’s reversal on his anti-NATO stance. Overall, NATO demonstrates resolve for the time being in protecting Europe’s borders, a mild setback for Russia’s assertion of Western reluctance. Expansion of the EU has never been seen as favorable to Russian interests, with the country seeking to reorient pro-EU sentiments in Georgia and Ukraine, by use of propaganda. That said pro-EU sentiments remain prevalent, while visa-free travel policies offered to the aforementioned countries by the EU are cornerstones for their acceptance into the EU. Thus, the EU and NATO as institutions, continue to challenge Putin’s ambitions for re-establishing Russian hegemony and influence in Eastern Europe. 

Considering the aforesaid challenges, sustaining his current approval ratings at home in light of the 2018 elections will remain an important task. That said, the Russian electorate will increasingly view Putin favourably as an able President in confronting domestic and international challenges, while the Russian government will continue to sustain its financial resources for military interventions abroad as well as meeting domestic expenditure objectives, to avoid austerity measures which may cause dissatisfaction and unfavourable political mobilisation in the long run. As an advantage, as no viable political opposition exercises influence in Russia’s political sphere at present, Putin enjoys relative favorability. Although, the performance and success of his governance at home and policies for Russian interests abroad will remain a key factor in maintaining the present political status quo.

ACHIEVEMENTS The election of Presidential candidate Donald Trump to the White House surprised most if not all political analyst covering the US Presidential elections. Despite President’s Trump’s lack of ‘hands on’ political experience, his success against the Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton can primarily be attributed to a series events that worked in his favor. The core of all the strategy revolved around a well planned and systematic media management campaign. In this vein, though the anti-immigration stance continues to be highly contested and face strong protests, the post-election analysis indicates that this was one of the cornerstones of his election campaign that paid dividends. The first 100 days of the election also witnessed Presidential Executive Order 13769 imposing travel ban on immigrants from seven Muslim-majority countries and also repatriation of illegal immigrants from the country which till now has contributed to his popularity ratings. The proposed plans to build a wall along the US-Mexico border and signing of Executive Order 13767 better known as Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements, though remains to be implemented, has resulted in significant decline in illegal immigration. These measures are claimed to be part of the larger strategy to achieve better homeland security, by preventing ‘terrorist’, posing as refugees or illegal immigrants from setting an operational base in the country. Furthermore, it is also aimed at generating employments for American nationals previously occupied by the immigrants. This was concurrently followed by a separate executive order on US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) or the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). However, given the deal remains to be ratified by the US congress, the executive order remains of little significance. Moreover, measures to implement ‘Buy American, Hire American Strategy’ as well as an attempts to crack down on companies which outsource jobs overseas, all combine together to form President Trump’s ‘America first initiative’.

Secondly, though there continues to remain some degree of skepticism, Trump administration has proposed sweeping tax reforms focusing primarily on tax cuts for businesses and other changes that could yield savings for American families. Unconfirmed reports suggest that corporate tax rate is expected to be slashed from 35% to 15%. These measures in tandem with deregulation and investments in infrastructure have elevated investors confidence. Additionally, measures facilitating removal of federal restrictions on energy production and opposition to environmentalist lobbies have facilitated in gaining support from the major energy companies which have stakes in the development of shale oil and gas in the country. Thirdly, assertive foreign policy posture has been a welcome change. The recent cruise missile strikes on Syria for its alleged chemical attacks, imposition of additional sanctions on Iranian entities for violations of the human rights, Massive Ordinance Air Blast (MOAB) attack in Afghanistan targeting IS militants and force posturing near the North Korean waters all combined together reinforce the credibility of US intentions and willingness to deliver against any violation. This has greatly propelled President Trump’s popularity in the region as well as at home.

CHALLENGES IS has suffered significant territorial reversals in recent months owing to persistent US air operations as well as advances on ground by the US- backed Kurdish as well as Iraqi forces in Iraq and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria. However, given the recurrence of attacks and limited territorial advances in Afghanistan, Iraq as well as in Syria, indicates that the militant group continues to maintain an operational presence in this region and poses a threat to the US and its allies in the region and beyond. Moreover, the threat of lone wolf attacks by IS- inspired entities in the US, as recorded during the Orlando shooting attack, adopted by IS in June 2016, and praised the Ohio state University attacks thus indicating the continued threat the Sunni jihadist group poses to mainland US. Countering this threat posed by radicalized elements and the lone wolf attacks by IS-inspired individuals continues to pose a threat to the credibility of President Trump’s stance in ‘eliminating IS’.   Secondly, Russia’s increasing engagements in the Middle East and in assertiveness in Eastern Europe continues to be a major challenge for the Trump administration. Given the overlapping and in most cases opposing interests in Syria continues to be an area of concern. This view is further bolstered by the threat of escalation between the two parties given the ‘clutter’ in the areas of operation. Moreover, alleged Russian involvement in the election of President Trump coupled with his decision to lift sanctions on Russia, imposed by the Obama administration for an annexation of Crimea also challenges the legitimacy of the incumbent President and poses serious political challenges. This in line with multiple instances of antiTrump rallies which remained localized still present some political challenges at home. Thirdly, policy in Afghanistan continues to be a contentious issue especially in terms of committing more troops in the country. With the latest reports on the US plans to deploy between 3,000-5,000 troops in advisory roles in the country, the extent of Washington’s involvement and the policy framework around it remains to be a challenging question for the Trump administration.

Furthermore, the increasing assertiveness featuring recurrent missile tests and the threat of nuclear attacks by North Korea and Chinese muscle-flexing in the east and south China sea by stepping up naval presence in the region also threatens the littoral states, which also happen to be US allies. Failure of the US to respond or at least convince its allies of the promised US assistance in case of hostilities in a potential flashpoint region also poses similar challenges. President Trump’s policy of ‘America First’ and ‘no free riders’ has been declared across the region and beyond as indicated by his statement asking NATO countries to further increase their defense budget further confirms the stance. President Trump's decision to replace the Patient Protection and affordable care act, better known as Obama Care policy Health Care have been a contentious issue. Though it was approved by the House of Representatives in May 2017 by a narrow margin, it remains to be introduced in the Senate, where it is expected to witness its greatest opposition by Democrats. Finally, President Trump’s take on climate change and threats of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. These measures are in line with President Trump’s opinion of environmental regulations as an impediment to business. Ending of a moratorium on leasing of federal coal reserve could also be expected under the current administration. This can be gauged from the signing of the executive order approving two controversial Keystone XL and Dakota access pipelines. The broader goal of policies like the America First Energy Plan is to tap into the vast energy reserves including shale gas and coal to attain energy self-sufficiency at the cost of environmental regulation. This has raised significant opposition from environmentalists and powerful lobbies supporting the renewable energy market. In this regard series of protests opposing the government, decisions were witnessed across the country, with the latest being recorded on April 29, 2017, in Washington. Given that the government is likely to go ahead with the implementation of the ‘America First Energy Plan’ additional protests remain likely to be recorded. To conclude President Trump’s ‘deliberate ambiguity’ posturing on a host of issues, including foreign policy, triggers uncertainty among rivals, but at the same time is his greatest strengths.  

ACHIEVEMENTS Following Emmanuel Macron’s electoral victory in the final phase of French Presidential polls on May 7, 2017, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen of the National Front (FN) demonstrated nonetheless, a surge in her party’s favorability securing approximately 34 percent of votes.   Examining Le Pen’s background, the present National Front can be termed a political inheritance from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen who founded the National Front in 1972. Le Pen assumed leadership of the party, with a majority of votes in 2011. Despite her views being disputed by her father, Le Pen upon taking the reigns of the FN reoriented the party’s image to a comparatively moderate political entity. Among these measures included advocacy of same-sex partnerships, abortion, and withdrawal of support for the death penalty.Le Pen’s notoriety and political rise have run in tandem with the surge in far-right politics in Europe, largely attributed to political polarization following the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. The use of populism and media propaganda strategies overall, particularly with reaching out to rural French populations was an earmarked achievement during her campaigning. Her proposed policies are largely summed up into Euroscepticism, anti-globalisation as well as anti-immigration and anti-Muslim stances. With regards to business impacts, Le Pen proposed a 3 percent tax on imports, maintaining France’s 35 working hours per week model with tax-free overtime hours as well as reduction of retirement age. On immigration, Le Pen has remained a contentious advocate of withdrawal from the EU, proposing reduced immigration by 80 percent to 10, 000 per annum, increased taxes on employers hiring foreigners, stringent guidelines for acquiring French citizenship and restricting immigrants’ access to welfare benefits. Le Pen's policies in this regard encompass a protectionist approach to business, posing concerns for foreign companies intending to continue or establish operations in France. 

Additionally, Le Pen’s pro-people projection can be outlined by proposed tax cuts on households and increased welfare benefits for working class, although achieving these remains a challenge given economic constraints and the need for reform. In the same breadth, Le Pen’s staunch criticism of NATO’s objectives at the expense of France’s goals and French people’s welfare has remained the focus of her proposal to withdraw from the organization. Simultaneously, increased defense spending and reintroduction of military conscription, with closer ties to Russia constitutes Le Pen’s push for focusing on what she designates as France’s needs and deviating from an EU/Western global agenda to achieve this.  While Le Pen lost the election, the rise in support for the FN compared to previous elections illustrates her transition from being a political third-wheeler to a serious contender. More so, the normalization of far-right populism in French politics stands as a turning point in its evolution. Further, the rejection of mainstream parties is a testament to this; a sense of fatigue from voters towards mainstream parties. The welcoming of designated outsiders by the French electorate paves opportunities for politicians such as Le Pen and Macron, amidst rising frustrations by the French electorate at the perceived ineffectiveness of the political mainstream. As Macron moves towards confronting the principal challenge of economic reforms, Le Pen’s goals of securing the parliamentary vote, if successful, poses challenges to Macron’s abilities to pass legislations for the same. That said, the road ahead is not as straightforward for Le Pen.

CHALLENGES While many political observers around the world might have heaved a sigh of relief following Le Pen’s loss in the French presidential elections, the far-right leader has managed to prove her credentials as a relevant political entity in France’s politics. Giving credence to this argument is the 34 percent of votes amounting to 11 million individuals who voted for the 48 year-old National Front leader. Many have cited that the relative surge in Le Pen’s popularity might be directly related to the beginning of a right-wing movement in Western Europe, despite the fact that right-wing leaders have lost almost every election in the recent past. As Le Pen conceded defeat, she vowed a complete transformation of her populist outfit to meet the French population’s aspirations and to become the primary opposition to Macron’s En Marche. That said, the right-winger faces several challenges with respect to the transformation of the National Front. Le Pen was successful in expelling her father JeanMarie Le Pen from the party, in relation to anti-semitic statements, denying the prevalence of concentration camps in Nazi-occupied made by the political veteran. However, the National Front has stuck to its xenophobia towards Muslim immigrants. That said, to achieve any substantial breakthrough with respect to gaining more traction on the national stage, Le Pen will have to purge her party of rogue elements who do not conform to her renewed ideology which is directed at addressing issues such as terrorism, immigration and France’s exit from the EU and not Catholic matters of contention such as abortion and same-sex marriage. Le Pen’s appointment of Jean-Francois Jalkh as party interim President and his subsequent remarks on the Holocaust have indicated that the reported change in the party’s stance might be peripheral and not substantive. Supporters of her father within the party’s fold might provide significant obstacles in Le Pen’s efforts to bolster the image of the National Front as a more inclusive political party. According to the exit polls, Le Pen won around 21 and 24 percent of votes in the 18-24 and 25-34 age category. Further, another exit poll indicated that Le Pen won approximately one-third of 18-24 division, while Macron won the two-thirds of the same category in the final round of the election.

These figures show that Le Pen has a dedicated voter-base in the youth, which remains disillusioned by the traditional French political parties which allegedly not been able to stem problems such as rising unemployment, terrorist attacks in France and an increase in immigration from the Middle-East and other regions. As the Front National Jeunesse, the youth wing of the National Front has reportedly managed to secure the votes of the youth, the top leadership of the party, including Le Pen herself, needs to chalk out a plan to attract more voters from the younger generation to her party’s fold. The inclusion of more young candidates for the legislative elections might be a strategy to reduce any youth deficit in the National Front. The elections for 577 National Assembly seats is slated to be held on June 11 and June 18. Another challenge for the Le Pen led National Front will be securing a sizeable number of seats in the assembly, where it currently holds only two seats. A tally of 60-65 assembly seats seems achievable for the National Front at this time as it attempts to move from the fringes of French politics to a more governing space with the intention of becoming the primary opposition in the country. The expansion of the Le Pen’s party depends on its initiatives to reach out to its traditional vote bank of blue collar workers coupled with the efficiency with which it manages to reach out to the greater populace in the municipal elections in 2020. The gains made by Le Pen’s party in the regional elections of 2015 highlight Le Pen’s growing popularity across France. A consolidation of the Front’s vote-bank along the more conservative Mediterranean coast and southern France will further the ambitions of the right populist party. Keeping the above mentioned in mind, Le Pen faces an arduous task in the run-up to the presidential elections in 2022. While her party has remained popular amongst her supporters and has managed to win over voters from every section of the society, it might face internal dissent combined with a prospective united opposition, which has traditionally united against the National Front during instances when the populist outfit has managed to garner considerable support. That said, Marine Le Pen’s ‘France First’ policies and her image as a strong leader with a list of populist goals might prove to be a potent contender for the presidency when France goes to the polls in 2022.

ACHIEVEMENTS President Maduro was appointed as interim president in 2013 following the death of former president Hugo Chavez the same year. Within a month of Chavez’s death, a presidential election was held as per the national constitution, closely won by Maduro over opposition candidate Henrique Capriles. Previously, Maduro was appointed by Chavez as Vice President of Venezuela in 2012. Following his assumption of the presidency, Maduro carried on from Chavez’s populist agendas, continuing the late president’s policies on multiple fronts, including crime, economics and foreign policy. Notably, Maduro’s policies on crime incorporated the ‘Safe Homeland’ program, where thousands of soldiers, in tandem with national police, were deployed towards reducing the homicide rate in Venezuela, amongst the highest in Latin America. However, substantial homicide rates continue to remain prevalent. Maduro’s economic policies overall, are a continuation of those implemented by former president Hugo Chavez. Suffering from amongst the world’s highest inflation rates presently at 800 percent, fiscal deficits, and shortage of basic consumer goods leading to food scarcity, Venezuela’s economic hardships were attributed by Maduro to capitalism and conspiracy theories regarding interference of foreign powers; political maneuvering for public consumption as a smokescreen against prevailing longstanding socio-economic issues. It is notable to point out that these issues were inherited by Maduro from Chavez and his policies. More so, scapegoating the United States of America for its criticism of Maduro as interference in Venezuela’s internal affairs has worked in tandem with the president’s tilt towards China for economic assistance, in the form of billions of dollars worth of loans. China is Venezuela’s second largest bilateral trading partner, with oil exports constituting the majority of exports by the latter to the former. 

Maduro’s extension of Chavez’s populist approaches, conventionally known as ‘Chavismo’ serves as an ideal example of how governance transitions from populism to authoritarianism, fuelled by favourable popular opinion and support for control over state institutions and authorities. The 2015 National Assembly elections witnessed the decline of the PSUV’s legislative strength with the victory of opposition parties (MUD), showcasing the Venezuelan electorate’s rejection of populism. At the same time, violent crackdowns on protesting opposition members and supporters depict the obstacles to a political resolution. An emboldened MUD in 2016 called for a referendum on Maduro’s Presidency, the campaign for which was suspended by the National Electoral Council citing malpractices and fraud. This was in reference to the requirement of obtaining 20 percent of voters’ signatures to validate the referendum. In summary, Maduro’s favourable support and influence amongst state institutions, while projecting democratic structures such as electoral processes, has allowed what can be termed a plausibly deniable authoritarian governance. More so, the above offers an explanation of Maduro’s need to govern by decree, allowing him to bypass parliamentary procedures and potential hurdles to legislations. 

CHALLENGES While Maduro has secured economic assistance from China, his focus on consolidating political power and continuance of Chavez’s economic policies virtually guarantees obstacles to economic growth, with continued high rates of inflation and economic grievances amongst the general public. In addition to long-term dependency on foreign aid, this will likely be exacerbated by inefficiencies in governance which impact basic essential infrastructure as well as law and order. Overall, anti-Maduro sentiments will broaden amongst multiple sections of the general public. With Maduro’s plans to establish a new constituent assembly facing stringent opposition by political opponents and their supporters, the escalation of violent protests and subsequent enforcement measures by local authorities, define the widening gap of trust between the Venezuelan electorate and the present government. The planned assembly, supported by the National Electoral Council, would help consolidate Maduro’s political influence in the country, leaving little political space for opposition parties, who seek to disrupt the current government. Maduro’s continued policies on all fronts despite dialogue with opposition parties ultimately reduces the credibility of such initiatives seen as a facade, and exacerbate tensions further. In turn, this explains opposition parties’ unwillingness to continue talks with Maduro. Violent protests will likely remain to be seen in the short to medium term. However, there is unlikely to be a change in government for the time being; Maduro will most likely remain President until the end of his term in 2018, despite popular opinion against him. 

ACHIEVEMENTS Among a host of economic reforms that are planned or in the different stages of development, the OBOR is considered to be one of the most ambitious foreign policy and economic venture undertaken by China under the reigns of Xi Jinping and is aimed to connect China with Central Asia, Europe, and Indo-Pacific littoral countries. This policy has a land and maritime component. The land-based “Silk Road Economic Belt” aims to connect the country’s underdeveloped hinterland to Europe through Central Asia. Whereas the “Maritime Silk Road” aims to connect the fast-growing Southeast Asian region to China’s southern provinces through ports and railways. It will include custom co-ordination, the formation of SEZ, new ports, e-commerce, trade liberalization and policy coordination.  It thus aims to increase economic integration among the 60 countries in the region that are expected to be part of the initiative. Secondly,  given the slowdown of the Chinese economic growth in recent years, the initiative also intends to facilitate the domestic needs in economic transformation, as demand for industrial output is expected to increase and thus revitalize the Chinese economy. Additionally, given that China continues to rely on imports of energy products to sustain the economic development, it has also initiated the CPEC project, featuring series of infrastructure development including development of highways, railways and energy pipelines from the Pakistani port of Gwadar to Kashgar in the western Chinese Province of Xinjiang. Despite the economic, political and social challenges faced by the project in Pakistan, continued Chinese engagements highlights its significance for Beijing.

Moreover, given that strong separatist sentiments and acts of low-level militancy continue to be recorded intermittently in its westernmost provinces of Xinjiang, implementation of major development projects like the OBOR and CPEC through the region are directed at bringing economic development and eventually subsiding the separatist sentiments in the region. Stringent anti-corruption policies have been a hallmark of the incumbent government and has been one of the top agendas as stated by President Xi at the time of taking reins of power in 2013. Some of the major highlights in this regards has been introduction of reforms in CCDI which has resulted in numerous arrests of even senior CPC and government officials including Zhou Yongkang, a senior leader of the CPC and a member of the 17th Politburo standing committee and Xu Caihou, a senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) General and also the ViceChairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC). Additionally, the introduction of the Disciplinary Code of the Chinese Communist Party in 2016 has been enforced by the Internal Supervision Regulation Committee (ISRC) aimed at enhancing the ‘ethical level’ of communist party officials. There are speculations that the anti-corruption drive has been used by President Xi to weed out political opposition to his policies and consolidate absolute control. Apart from major socio-economic reforms, President Xi has also introduced major military reforms. The aim of these reforms have been two folds; namely enhancing the capabilities of the security forces in order to better cater to the ever changing security dynamics in the region and beyond and at the same time introduce increased control of the government, in this case, the CMC, on the institution. According to the guideline released by the CMC, a new structure will be established in which the CMC will take charge of the overall administration of the PLA, the People’s Armed Police, the militia and reserve forces.  This was preceded by the introduction of other major military reforms aimed at transforming the force from regional defense to full spectrum combat-capable force. In this vein in January 2016, the CMC introduced the General Command of the PLA Army, Rocket Force, and Strategic Support Force. These measures along with increasing assertiveness and forays into the South China sea are likely to support President Xi’s populist agendas in the region.

CHALLENGES Domestically, a number of industrial and fiscal reforms including in financial markets, the banking sector, as well as the real estate industry have been initiated. While they aim to foster business growth and investment, as well as competition with state enterprises, these reforms have not made as much headway as boasted by President Xi Jinping. More so, excessive regulation and control by the Chinese government in financial markets and business investments continues to remain a challenge for business investors. Beyond what is conventionally termed “lip service”, it is crucial to examine critical reforms and the issues that remain where applicable. Considering an aging and subsequently reducing labor workforce, President Xi Jinping terminated China’s ‘one child’ policy and extended it to a two-child policy, offering incentives to families for producing a second child. Despite this, however, the labor force will continue to age and reduce in the long run, presenting obstacles to economic growth. The Chinese government has simplified rural to urban migration for workers seeking residency and access to social benefits in middle and lower level urban centers. More so, the Chinese government aims to examine the possibility of satellite cities around major urban centers, through expansion of municipal jurisdictions. That said, rural migrants still face significant obstacles to urban residency, which in turn limits prospects for access to medical insurance, education and other family-oriented benefits. The Chinese government implemented flexibility in transacting money to and from China and moved to a market-based system in pegging the Renminbi to the US Dollar. The development followed the International Monetary Fund’s acceptance of the Chinese Renminbi into a group of currencies functioning as reserve currencies for central banks. Restrictions on financial transactions abroad were later reimposed, however, as the reforms led to an unprecedented increase in such transactions, weakening the Renminbi against the US Dollar. In turn, the Chinese government reportedly spent approximately 1 trillion USD to restore the Renminbi’s balance with the US Dollar.

In between a rise in bad loans and defaults, banks were permitted to trade debt in exchange for equities with defaulters. More so, asset management enterprises have seen opportunity in buying debt from banks, while banks have been permitted to determine interest rates based on credit assessments of prospective borrowers. Additionally, deregulation of interest rates that banks pay on deposits has led to competition, ultimately benefiting depositors with favorable interest rates. That said, the measures while commendable, have not been a complete solution. Banks continue to face a surplus of bad loans with increasing risks of nonpayment, including loans to borrowers with questionable credit integrity and those with influential political connections as well as private and state-owned companies. The slowing of economic growth, if further critical, would exacerbate this much further. Simultaneously, businesses, particular start-ups are frustrated by decreasing access to loans with lower interest rates, required for business growth; defining a vicious cycle. The Chinese government eased its controls over the domestic bond market, permitting increased foreign stakes. This allowed foreigners to trade and hedge currency risks, across stock markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, access points to global markets. More so, local governments were pushed to steer away from establishing firms dependent on loans to manage public works costs. Allowing greater foreign participation was a commendable measure and public-private partnerships have emerged. However, while the move also aimed at making local governments make investment decisions with integrity and consideration, the initial segment of private partners have in majority been state-owned companies, which correspond to local governments’ interests in excessive borrowing for job creation; defeating the principle purpose of the reform.   The Chinese government has to a certain extent, reduced its industrial capacity in steel manufacturing and coal mining. However, the country still possesses the approximate steel manufacturing capacity as the remainder of the globe, and an excessive number of active coal mines considering long-term plans to shift to renewable and nuclear energy. More so, increasing competition, and slowing economic growth in other industries as well, have deterred private investment to an extent. 

Amidst low demand and slow progress on construction, the Chinese government increased accessibility to home loans; banks issued mortgages much more easily. In turn, this initiated a surge in mortgage purchases within a relatively short period of time. However, the surge in mortgage loan purchases created what is commonly known as the ‘real estate bubble’, especially given the consequential steep rise in real estate prices across Beijing and Shanghai, relative to low incomes. With easier access to mortgages, this, in turn, increases difficulties for loan repayments in the long run. More so, realty developers, for the time being, are still in debt, while repayment of mortgages remains increasingly uncertain. Internationally, geopolitical developments centred on the South China Sea dispute, have drawn upon the resources of the Chinese government and its military. President Xi Jinping’s abilities to carry forward the land and maritime based ‘Silk Route’ objectives, will be determining factors in facilitating the success of economic reforms at home. This is especially so given China’s economic growth slowdown, and the gaps present in its reform initiatives. President Xi Jinping’s management of the calculus presented by the South China Sea dispute, will thus bear direct results for his domestic popularity, and his future electoral prospects.