Prediction  Markets  for  the  Reproducibility  of  Psychological  Science     The  prediction  markets  for  the  reproducibility  project  will  soon  be  up  and   running  -­‐  please  participate!     There  will  be  around  30  prediction  markets,  each  representing  a  particular   study  that  is  currently  being  replicated.  Each  market  can  be  summarized  by  a   key  hypothesis  that  is  being  tested,  which  you  will  get  to  bet  on.   In  each  market  that  you  participate,  you  will  bet  on  a  binary  outcome:  whether   the  effect  in  the  replication  study  is  in  the  same  direction  as  the  original  study,   and  is  statistically  significant  with  a  p-­‐value  smaller  than  0.05.   Everybody  is  eligible  to  participate  in  the  prediction  markets:  it  is  open  to  all   members  of  the  Open  Science  Collaboration  discussion  group  –  you  do  not   need  to  be  part  of  a  replication  for  the  Reproducibility  Project.  However,  you   cannot  bet  on  your  own  replications.   Each  study/market  will  have  a  prospectus  with  all  available  information  so  that   you  can  make  informed  decisions.   The  prediction  markets  are  subsidized.  All  participants  will  get  about  $50  on   their  prediction  account  to  trade  with.  How  much  money  you  make  depends  on   how  you  bet  on  different  hypotheses  (on  average  participants  will  earn  about   $50  on  a  Mastercard  gift  card  that  can  be  used  anywhere  Mastercard  is  used).   The  prediction  markets  will  open  in  about  2  weeks  and  will  be  open  for  2   weeks.   If  you  are  willing  to  participate  in  the  prediction  markets,  please  send  an  email   to  [email protected]  by  November  1  and  we  will  set  up  an  account  for  you.   Before  we  open  up  the  prediction  markets,  we  will  send  you  a  short  survey.   The  prediction  markets  are  run  in  collaboration  with  Consensus  Point.   If  more  than  100  individuals  would  like  to  participate  we  will  randomly  draw  a   sample  of  100  individuals  out  of  those  that  want  to  participate.     If  you  have  any  questions,  please  do  not  hesitate  to  email  [email protected].  

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