1. Should governments default on their debts? 2. Should a central government bailout subordinate states? 3. Should a monetary union precede a fiscal union? 4. Should a fiscal union precede a monetary union?
“United States Then” - Fiscal Timeline
Outline
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Fiscal arithmetic
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Fiscal and monetary choices of U.S.
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The current situations in the U.S. and EU
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Lessons
A Simple Model For Government Debt 1. Statistical Model for government surplus net-of interest st st =
∞ X
σj wt−j = σ(L)wt
j=0
2. Government budget constraint bt = Tt − gt +R −1 bt+1 , t ≥ 0 | {z } st
Government, Voters, Creditors Fiscal and Monetary Policies,Voting and Portfolio Choices Political Institutions (Constitutions)
=
Prob. Dist. Over Outcomes
{z } |Prob.Dist.overoutcomes {st } , R
1781-1787 : U.S. After War of Independence
Environment
Outcomes
• Articles of Confederation
• Deep discounts on IOU’s
• Weak Continental Congress
• 14 {st }
• High debt from war •Uncoordinated trade/fiscal policies
1790’s : The U.S. Constitution “New” Environment
Outcomes
• The U.S. Constitution
• No discounts on IOU’s
• Federal bailout of states
• Increased liquidity
• Consolidation of trade/fiscal policies
• Large federal tax revenue
• Exclusivity to tax
Monetary arrangements as an afterthought.
1790’s : The U.S. Constitution “New” Environment
Outcomes
• The U.S. Constitution
• No discounts on IOU’s
• Federal bailout of states
• Increased liquidity
• Consolidation of trade/fiscal policies
• Large federal tax revenue
• Exclusivity to tax
Monetary arrangements as an afterthought. Reputation with creditors vs. reputation with states
1840’s: Fiscal Crisis
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What kind of fiscal union? I
Expenditure
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Bond-issuance
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Taxation
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Eleventh Amendment and Congress’s refusal to bail out states
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Rewritten state constitutions with balanced budget provisions
U.S. then
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Deep discounts on bonds
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Uncoordinated fiscal policies
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“Messy” monetary arrangements
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Large federal debt
EU now
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Deep and varied discounts on member state bonds
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Uncoordinated fiscal policies
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Centralized monetary arrangements
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No “federal” debt
Questions
1. Should governments default on their debts? 2. Should a central government bailout subordinate states? 3. Should a monetary union precede a fiscal union? 4. Should a fiscal union precede a monetary union?
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