Electoral projections for the next federal elections Projections électorales pour la prochaine élection fédérale

www.tooclosetocall.ca www.silatendancesemaintient.ca

12/08/2015 % Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Canada*

CPC 21.3 19.4 34.6 47.6 49.7 29.1 32.5

LPC 44.6 23.0 32.2 21.7 17.5 25.7 27.5

NDP 30.5 40.0 28.5 26.5 29.5 36.0 32.3

Green 3.1 0.5 3.9 4.2 3.1 8.8 3.6

Seats/Sièges Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Territories

6 7 50 17 29 11 1

20 12 44 5 0 10 1

6 57 27 6 5 20 1

0 0 0 0 0 1 0

2 -

Canada

121

92

122

1

2

CPC 21% 14% 14% 23% 9% 4% 8% 22% 16%

LPC 49% 70% 71% 55% 71% 23% 44% 65% 55%

NDP 30% 15% 15% 21% 19% 72% 47% 11% 26%

Green 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%

Bloc

PEI

NFL

Riding/Circonscription Avalon Bonavista--Burin--Trinity Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame Labrador Long Range Mountains St. John's East St. John's South--Mount Pearl Cardigan Charlottetown

Bloc 16.7

3.9

Probability of winning most seats (with majority below) Probabilités de gagner le plus de sièges (et d'une majorité en-dessous) CPC 56.4% 0.0%

LPC 0.7% 0.0%

NDP 42.9% 0.0%

Green 0.0% 0.0%

Bloc 0.0% 0.0%

Probability of winning the riding Probabilité de remporter la circonscription

CPC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

LPC NDP 99.7% 0.3% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Green 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bloc

PEI NS NB

Egmont 38% Malpeque 23% Cape Breton--Canso 16% Central Nova 39% Cumberland--Colchester 37% Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 8% Halifax 1% Halifax West 14% Kings--Hants 20% Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 14% South Shore--St. Margarets 25% Sydney--Victoria 21% West Nova 30% Acadie--Bathurst 0% Beauséjour 15% Fredericton 31% Fundy Royal 41% Madawaska--Restigouche 25% Miramichi--Grand Lake 37% Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 20% New Brunswick Southwest 41% Saint John--Rothesay 33% Tobique--Mactaquac 46% Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 26% Abitibi--Témiscamingue 12% Ahuntsic-Cartierville 10% Alfred-Pellan 14% Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 17% Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 16% Beauce 53% Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix 26% Beauport--Limoilou 29% Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 16% Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 47%

47% 58% 60% 29% 34% 50% 41% 53% 55% 27% 33% 55% 52% 30% 56% 40% 26% 52% 37% 46% 29% 32% 32% 19% 15% 38% 31% 23% 31% 20% 13% 16% 18% 15%

13% 16% 21% 28% 24% 37% 53% 29% 21% 55% 37% 20% 14% 70% 24% 25% 28% 21% 24% 29% 25% 32% 20% 41% 48% 38% 39% 42% 24% 26% 36% 43% 32% 31%

2% 4% 3% 4% 6% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 0% 4% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 3% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%

11% 25% 14% 16% 17% 29% 0% 26% 12% 32% 7%

11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 90.6% 64.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 98.2% 0.0% 48.9% 0.0% 96.1% 43.6% 98.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4.7% 2.4% 0.0% 99.0%

88.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 6.2% 3.2% 34.7% 0.5% 95.9% 4.1% 6.5% 93.5% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 29.5% 69.5% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 90.8% 1.0% 0.6% 1.2% 100.0% 0.0% 50.7% 0.4% 99.0% 1.0% 3.6% 0.3% 27.2% 29.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 98.9% 0.0% 100.0% 57.3% 42.7% 8.9% 91.1% 0.4% 99.6% 62.8% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91.0% 0.0% 97.6% 0.2% 49.9% 0.0% 1.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31.4% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 49.9% 0.0%

QC

Beloeil--Chambly Berthier--Maskinongé Bourassa Brome--Missisquoi Brossard--Saint-Lambert Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles Châteauguay--Lacolle Chicoutimi--Le Fjord Compton--Stanstead Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle Drummond Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Gatineau Hochelaga Honoré-Mercier Hull--Aylmer Joliette Jonquière La Pointe-de-l'Île La Prairie Lac-Saint-Jean Lac-Saint-Louis LaSalle--Émard--Verdun Laurentides--Labelle Laurier--Sainte-Marie Laval--Les Îles Lévis--Lotbinière Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne Longueuil--Saint-Hubert Louis-Hébert Louis-Saint-Laurent Manicouagan Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Mégantic--L'Érable

12% 15% 11% 14% 15% 34% 15% 29% 14% 16% 18% 22% 11% 9% 15% 13% 12% 38% 10% 12% 45% 30% 11% 12% 6% 19% 43% 13% 11% 25% 41% 15% 13% 53%

19% 20% 40% 30% 41% 16% 18% 15% 20% 37% 16% 25% 22% 19% 40% 29% 15% 12% 17% 21% 12% 40% 26% 21% 18% 29% 14% 21% 18% 23% 16% 15% 22% 15%

45% 38% 38% 40% 34% 42% 46% 35% 44% 39% 49% 26% 58% 46% 33% 55% 44% 39% 45% 47% 29% 28% 43% 41% 45% 45% 35% 43% 47% 35% 37% 44% 46% 23%

0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%

24% 25% 11% 15% 10% 9% 21% 21% 21% 7% 16% 27% 9% 26% 11% 3% 27% 12% 28% 20% 14% 0% 19% 25% 31% 7% 7% 22% 23% 16% 7% 25% 18% 9%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.1% 0.0% 0.0% 99.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 73.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.4% 72.2% 9.3% 86.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 54.2% 0.0% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 90.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

99.9% 98.3% 27.8% 90.7% 13.1% 86.8% 100.0% 77.6% 100.0% 45.8% 100.0% 28.6% 100.0% 100.0% 9.1% 100.0% 99.7% 59.9% 99.8% 100.0% 0.7% 0.6% 98.5% 99.6% 99.0% 98.9% 12.4% 99.9% 100.0% 91.6% 26.8% 99.9% 100.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 44.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Mirabel 12% Montarville 12% Montcalm 11% Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup 39% Mount Royal 37% Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 20% Outremont 10% Papineau 7% Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 11% Pierrefonds--Dollard 28% Pontiac 29% Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 5% Québec 22% Repentigny 10% Richmond--Arthabaska 27% Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques 17% Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 13% Rivière-du-Nord 11% Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 6% Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 18% Saint-Jean 13% Saint-Laurent 21% Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 16% Saint-Maurice--Champlain 20% Salaberry--Suroît 15% Shefford 17% Sherbrooke 12% Terrebonne 11% Thérèse-De Blainville 12% Trois-Rivières 16% Vaudreuil--Soulanges 20% Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 14% Vimy 15% Ajax 31%

16% 21% 13% 13% 48% 45% 29% 45% 18% 38% 24% 22% 18% 16% 15% 17% 19% 15% 16% 13% 17% 50% 49% 19% 16% 17% 18% 15% 18% 18% 20% 35% 29% 48%

47% 42% 49% 34% 15% 33% 54% 28% 42% 32% 44% 54% 40% 49% 29% 40% 46% 52% 49% 49% 45% 27% 30% 38% 41% 48% 41% 49% 47% 47% 41% 39% 40% 19%

0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 3%

25% 24% 25% 14% 0% 0% 8% 21% 28% 1% 3% 18% 20% 25% 28% 25% 21% 22% 28% 19% 25% 2% 5% 23% 28% 18% 30% 25% 22% 19% 18% 12% 16%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 80.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 26.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96.6% 98.8% 0.1% 99.8% 0.0% 88.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 40.4% 4.7% 98.4%

100.0% 99.9% 100.0% 20.0% 0.0% 1.2% 99.9% 0.2% 98.6% 8.4% 98.7% 100.0% 99.5% 100.0% 44.4% 99.5% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.3% 98.3% 100.0% 96.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 59.6% 95.3% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 29.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.7% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Barrie--Innisfil Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Bay of Quinte Beaches--East York Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Brantford--Brant Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Burlington Cambridge Carleton Chatham-Kent--Leamington Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Dufferin--Caledon Durham Eglinton--Lawrence Elgin--Middlesex--London Essex Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke North Etobicoke--Lakeshore Flamborough--Glanbrook Glengarry--Prescott--Russell Guelph Haldimand--Norfolk Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock

20% 39% 49% 43% 43% 12% 33% 17% 36% 32% 29% 38% 43% 43% 42% 53% 42% 4% 26% 28% 32% 46% 47% 35% 48% 37% 30% 22% 29% 45% 40% 23% 40% 51%

23% 38% 22% 27% 27% 38% 35% 40% 38% 45% 46% 27% 25% 31% 23% 27% 24% 35% 46% 46% 50% 22% 22% 47% 21% 22% 49% 51% 43% 25% 37% 51% 33% 19%

53% 20% 24% 24% 26% 45% 27% 41% 22% 20% 23% 32% 21% 22% 31% 16% 31% 57% 26% 25% 14% 17% 27% 15% 28% 39% 18% 27% 24% 26% 19% 20% 24% 25%

3% 4% 6% 6% 4% 5% 5% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% 10% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 1% 4% 15% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0% 4% 4% 4% 6% 3% 5%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 52.8% 47.2% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 97.8% 1.9% 0.3% 98.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 17.4% 82.6% 40.5% 55.0% 4.5% 0.0% 41.0% 59.0% 40.7% 59.2% 0.1% 5.9% 94.1% 0.0% 1.4% 98.5% 0.0% 78.4% 2.6% 19.0% 99.1% 0.9% 0.1% 94.2% 5.8% 0.0% 93.6% 0.3% 6.2% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 94.1% 0.3% 5.6% 0.0% 0.2% 99.8% 0.2% 99.6% 0.2% 0.8% 99.1% 0.1% 0.8% 99.2% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.2% 6.5% 93.5% 0.0% 99.7% 0.0% 0.3% 40.2% 0.1% 59.7% 0.7% 99.3% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2.1% 97.8% 0.2% 99.4% 0.3% 0.3% 66.7% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 82.9% 16.7% 0.4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Ont.

Hamilton Centre 14% Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 28% Hamilton Mountain 23% Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 32% Hastings--Lennox and Addington 46% Humber River--Black Creek 12% Huron--Bruce 42% Kanata--Carleton 45% Kenora 34% Kingston and the Islands 26% King--Vaughan 44% Kitchener Centre 29% Kitchener South--Hespeler 40% Kitchener--Conestoga 43% Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 47% Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 51% Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau52% Lakes London North Centre 26% London West 34% London--Fanshawe 24% Markham--Stouffville 37% Markham--Thornhill 24% Markham--Unionville 33% Milton 44% Mississauga Centre 28% Mississauga East--Cooksville 30% Mississauga--Erin Mills 33% Mississauga--Lakeshore 34% Mississauga--Malton 24% Mississauga--Streetsville 33% Nepean 42% Newmarket--Aurora 42% Niagara Centre 29% Niagara Falls 43%

21% 21% 23% 33% 23% 55% 26% 32% 31% 45% 37% 41% 27% 32% 22% 22% 22% 42% 35% 19% 39% 46% 44% 32% 47% 46% 44% 47% 47% 45% 33% 34% 22% 27%

65% 48% 52% 32% 27% 32% 29% 18% 32% 24% 16% 25% 29% 21% 28% 21% 21% 28% 29% 54% 21% 27% 20% 20% 22% 21% 19% 16% 27% 19% 21% 20% 46% 27%

1% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 3% 5% 3% 4% 3% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.2% 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 32.5% 39.8% 27.7% 99.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 95.2% 1.6% 3.2% 97.2% 2.8% 0.0% 47.1% 25.5% 27.4% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 81.2% 18.8% 0.0% 4.9% 94.6% 0.5% 93.0% 3.0% 4.0% 94.3% 5.7% 0.0% 99.5% 0.1% 0.4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 97.5% 1.8% 41.4% 48.7% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 41.9% 58.0% 0.1% 0.2% 99.4% 0.4% 7.9% 92.0% 0.0% 94.2% 5.8% 0.0% 1.5% 98.5% 0.0% 2.6% 97.3% 0.0% 9.1% 90.9% 0.0% 6.0% 94.0% 0.0% 0.3% 99.5% 0.3% 7.5% 92.5% 0.0% 91.8% 8.2% 0.0% 82.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 99.2% 98.6% 0.9% 0.5%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Niagara West Nickel Belt Nipissing--Timiskaming Northumberland--Peterborough South Oakville Oakville North--Burlington Orléans Oshawa Ottawa Centre Ottawa South Ottawa West--Nepean Ottawa--Vanier Oxford Parkdale--High Park Parry Sound--Muskoka Perth--Wellington Peterborough--Kawartha Pickering--Uxbridge Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke Richmond Hill Sarnia--Lambton Sault Ste. Marie Scarborough Centre Scarborough North Scarborough Southwest Scarborough--Agincourt Scarborough--Guildwood Scarborough--Rouge Park Simcoe North Simcoe--Grey Spadina--Fort York St. Catharines Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry Sudbury

50% 16% 24% 44% 40% 43% 36% 38% 14% 26% 36% 20% 49% 5% 43% 42% 41% 33% 55% 30% 42% 27% 23% 22% 21% 23% 24% 21% 41% 42% 11% 40% 53% 16%

22% 23% 45% 27% 39% 35% 44% 17% 25% 50% 37% 43% 17% 41% 21% 28% 28% 43% 23% 45% 22% 29% 40% 36% 37% 53% 43% 42% 29% 26% 41% 28% 24% 27%

23% 59% 25% 23% 17% 18% 17% 41% 56% 21% 23% 32% 29% 51% 28% 25% 28% 19% 20% 21% 34% 42% 35% 39% 39% 22% 30% 35% 24% 25% 45% 27% 20% 54%

5% 3% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 4% 5% 3% 4% 5% 5% 3% 8% 5% 4% 5% 2% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% 6% 7% 4% 4% 2% 3%

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.3% 99.6% 0.1% 99.6% 0.4% 0.0% 57.0% 43.0% 0.0% 86.2% 13.8% 0.0% 11.9% 88.1% 0.0% 31.8% 0.0% 68.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 37.1% 62.7% 0.2% 0.0% 96.3% 3.7% 99.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 7.9% 92.1% 97.7% 0.0% 2.3% 96.6% 2.7% 0.7% 95.9% 1.9% 2.2% 9.5% 90.5% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 97.3% 0.0% 86.8% 0.0% 13.2% 1.9% 3.8% 94.2% 0.4% 76.7% 22.9% 0.1% 34.7% 65.3% 0.0% 38.3% 61.7% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.1% 96.4% 3.5% 0.0% 84.6% 15.4% 94.6% 4.9% 0.6% 96.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 26.7% 73.3% 94.1% 4.0% 1.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Man.

Thornhill 50% Thunder Bay--Rainy River 15% Thunder Bay--Superior North 18% Timmins--James Bay 20% Toronto Centre 11% Toronto--Danforth 3% Toronto--St. Paul's 22% University--Rosedale 10% Vaughan--Woodbridge 43% Waterloo 30% Wellington--Halton Hills 53% Whitby 45% Willowdale 29% Windsor West 21% Windsor--Tecumseh 23% York Centre 37% York South--Weston 14% York--Simcoe 51% Brandon--Souris 56% Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley 49% Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 19% Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 57% Elmwood--Transcona 38% Kildonan--St. Paul 51% Portage--Lisgar 70% Provencher 64% Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 41% Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 59% Winnipeg Centre 19% Winnipeg North 18% Winnipeg South 43% Winnipeg South Centre 32% Battlefords--Lloydminster 57% Cypress Hills--Grasslands 62%

32% 30% 25% 25% 47% 25% 47% 38% 40% 47% 24% 34% 47% 18% 20% 41% 40% 21% 15% 30% 30% 16% 16% 18% 16% 17% 42% 15% 23% 47% 43% 48% 14% 16%

15% 52% 54% 53% 39% 65% 26% 48% 14% 18% 16% 20% 23% 58% 53% 19% 43% 22% 22% 17% 48% 22% 42% 27% 8% 16% 13% 22% 50% 32% 11% 15% 26% 18%

3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 7% 5% 5% 2% 5% 7% 2% 1% 3% 3% 2% 3% 6% 7% 5% 3% 5% 4% 4% 7% 4% 4% 4% 8% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4%

98.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.1% 1.3% 100.0% 92.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 27.4% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.6% 0.0% 100.0% 32.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 44.6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.7% 1.9% 100.0% 100.0%

1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 85.4% 0.0% 99.9% 9.8% 34.9% 98.7% 0.0% 7.9% 99.2% 0.0% 0.0% 72.6% 31.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55.4% 0.0% 0.0% 97.7% 50.3% 98.1% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 99.8% 100.0% 100.0% 14.6% 100.0% 0.0% 90.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 68.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.5% 0.0% 67.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Sask. Alb.

Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan Prince Albert Regina--Lewvan Regina--Qu'Appelle Regina--Wascana Saskatoon--Grasswood Saskatoon--University Saskatoon West Souris--Moose Mountain Yorkton--Melville Banff--Airdrie Battle River--Crowfoot Bow River Calgary Centre Calgary Confederation Calgary Forest Lawn Calgary Heritage Calgary Midnapore Calgary Nose Hill Calgary Rocky Ridge Calgary Shepard Calgary Signal Hill Calgary Skyview Edmonton Centre Edmonton Griesbach Edmonton Manning Edmonton Mill Woods Edmonton Riverbend Edmonton Strathcona Edmonton West Edmonton--Wetaskiwin Foothills

38% 60% 52% 54% 36% 46% 28% 43% 41% 35% 64% 60% 57% 68% 69% 41% 38% 49% 59% 60% 54% 53% 60% 50% 42% 27% 33% 38% 39% 39% 19% 44% 61% 65%

16% 14% 14% 14% 19% 15% 52% 18% 20% 14% 16% 17% 15% 9% 10% 26% 24% 24% 15% 14% 18% 19% 14% 22% 34% 32% 16% 19% 20% 23% 11% 21% 12% 11%

43% 22% 30% 29% 41% 35% 16% 36% 34% 47% 16% 20% 23% 21% 19% 26% 26% 24% 24% 22% 24% 23% 23% 22% 21% 41% 51% 43% 40% 36% 70% 34% 24% 21%

3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 6% 2% 2% 8% 11% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 3% 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 2% 3%

25.0% 100.0% 99.9% 100.0% 27.0% 92.8% 0.1% 82.1% 82.9% 6.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 98.8% 96.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 87.1% 2.8% 0.9% 24.2% 43.2% 65.6% 0.0% 88.2% 100.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

75.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 73.0% 7.2% 0.0% 17.9% 17.1% 93.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87.7% 99.1% 75.8% 56.8% 34.3% 100.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

BC

Fort McMurray--Cold Lake Grande Prairie--Mackenzie Lakeland Lethbridge Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner Peace River--Westlock Red Deer--Lacombe Red Deer--Mountain View Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan St. Albert--Edmonton Sturgeon River--Parkland Yellowhead Abbotsford Burnaby North--Seymour Burnaby South Cariboo--Prince George Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola Chilliwack--Hope Cloverdale--Langley City Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam Courtenay--Alberni Cowichan--Malahat--Langford Delta Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke Fleetwood--Port Kells Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo Kelowna--Lake Country Kootenay--Columbia Langley--Aldergrove Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon Nanaimo--Ladysmith New Westminster--Burnaby North Island--Powell River North Okanagan--Shuswap

58% 63% 64% 41% 55% 64% 63% 64% 50% 44% 63% 64% 50% 22% 20% 40% 38% 43% 35% 33% 25% 26% 26% 21% 26% 35% 41% 34% 43% 38% 24% 15% 26% 38%

17% 10% 12% 16% 18% 11% 10% 10% 18% 19% 12% 10% 20% 32% 27% 17% 22% 23% 28% 24% 20% 19% 35% 23% 32% 16% 23% 15% 25% 20% 20% 24% 20% 19%

23% 25% 22% 40% 25% 23% 24% 22% 29% 35% 23% 23% 24% 41% 48% 36% 31% 28% 30% 37% 46% 47% 33% 42% 39% 42% 26% 44% 25% 37% 48% 55% 47% 31%

2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 6% 5% 5% 8% 9% 6% 6% 6% 8% 8% 6% 14% 4% 6% 10% 8% 7% 6% 8% 6% 6% 12%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 59.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 87.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.3% 0.0% 79.0% 87.7% 99.1% 71.5% 34.2% 0.1% 0.1% 4.7% 0.0% 2.4% 20.7% 99.3% 7.8% 99.4% 60.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 89.6%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 9.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 54.4% 0.1% 15.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 89.4% 99.9% 21.0% 12.2% 0.8% 19.2% 64.5% 99.9% 99.9% 40.9% 99.8% 81.7% 79.3% 0.6% 92.2% 0.2% 39.7% 100.0% 100.0% 99.7% 10.4%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

BC Terr.

North Vancouver 25% Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 32% Port Moody--Coquitlam 24% Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies 45% Richmond Centre 35% Saanich--Gulf Islands 19% Skeena--Bulkley Valley 21% South Okanagan--West Kootenay 28% South Surrey--White Rock 31% Steveston--Richmond East 32% Surrey Centre 17% Surrey--Newton 8% Vancouver Centre 9% Vancouver East 2% Vancouver Granville 15% Vancouver Kingsway 11% Vancouver Quadra 19% Vancouver South 22% Victoria 5% West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky24% Country Yukon 26% Northwest Territories 24% Nunavut 42%

46% 21% 24% 17% 35% 19% 15% 18% 36% 35% 34% 50% 44% 24% 45% 30% 56% 49% 23% 40% 40% 26% 36%

22% 40% 46% 31% 23% 15% 60% 44% 25% 28% 44% 39% 31% 66% 29% 55% 18% 26% 46% 27% 16% 46% 20%

7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 47% 4% 9% 8% 6% 5% 4% 17% 9% 11% 5% 7% 3% 26% 9% 18% 3% 2%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use the federal vote intentions. ** winning=getting the most seats

0.1% 15.6% 0.1% 98.8% 55.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 25.5% 31.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%

99.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 43.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 71.5% 59.7% 5.7% 93.8% 97.8% 0.0% 98.8% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 96.5%

0.0% 0.0% 84.3% 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 99.1% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 94.3% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0%