Electoral projections for the next federal elections Projections électorales pour la prochaine élection fédérale

www.tooclosetocall.ca www.silatendancesemaintient.ca

17/07/2015 % Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Canada*

CPC 23.5 17.8 31.9 38.0 49.0 27.0 29.3

LPC 35.9 22.2 30.6 24.7 14.5 23.2 25.8

NDP 34.0 34.0 29.6 31.4 28.8 40.9 32.5

Green 5.6 3.0 6.5 3.7 4.8 8.0 5.5

Bloc 22.0 5.8

Seats/Sièges Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Territories

6 8 47 14 29 6 1

19 12 45 5 0 8 1

7 54 29 9 5 27 1

0 0 0 0 0 1 0

4 -

Canada

111

90

132

1

4

CPC 23% 16% 16% 24% 11% 6% 10% 22% 18%

LPC 40% 62% 62% 47% 63% 14% 36% 58% 47%

NDP 33% 19% 19% 25% 23% 76% 51% 15% 30%

Green 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5%

Bloc

PEI

NFL

Riding/Circonscription Avalon Bonavista-Burin-Trinity Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame Labrador Long Range Mountains St. John’s East St. John’s South—Mount Pearl Cardigan Charlottetown

Probability of winning most seats (with majority below) Probabilités de gagner le plus de sièges (et d'une majorité en-dessous) CPC 10.3% 0.0%

LPC 0.2% 0.0%

NDP 89.5% 0.0%

Green 0.0% 0.0%

Bloc 0.0% 0.0%

Probability of winning the riding Probabilité de remporter la circonscription

CPC 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

LPC NDP 84.3% 15.7% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.7% 98.3% 100.0% 0.0% 99.2% 0.8%

Green 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bloc

PEI NS NB

Egmont Malpeque Cape Breton—Canso Central Nova Cumberland—Colchester Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Halifax Halifax West Kings—Hants Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook South Shore—St. Margarets Sydney—Victoria West Nova Acadie—Bathurst Beauséjour Fredericton Fundy Royal Madawaska—Restigouche Miramichi—Grand Lake Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe New Brunswick Southwest Saint John—Rothesay Tobique—Mactaquac Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Abitibi—Témiscamingue Ahuntsic-Cartierville Alfred-Pellan Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia Beauce Beauport—Limoilou Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Beloeil—Chambly

38% 23% 18% 39% 37% 11% 4% 16% 22% 16% 26% 24% 31% 2% 17% 31% 41% 25% 37% 23% 41% 34% 45% 24% 11% 10% 12% 16% 15% 52% 27% 14% 46% 10%

40% 50% 51% 22% 26% 42% 33% 44% 46% 18% 25% 47% 45% 21% 48% 32% 18% 44% 29% 37% 21% 24% 24% 19% 15% 37% 30% 22% 31% 20% 15% 18% 14% 19%

18% 20% 25% 33% 29% 41% 57% 33% 25% 59% 42% 24% 19% 74% 28% 30% 33% 26% 29% 33% 30% 37% 25% 36% 42% 23% 34% 36% 18% 21% 37% 26% 24% 39%

4% 7% 6% 7% 8% 6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 3% 7% 7% 8% 5% 5% 7% 8% 6% 5% 5% 3% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3%

17% 30% 28% 21% 22% 33% 5% 19% 37% 13% 29%

59.9% 40.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 91.4% 0.1% 8.5% 94.0% 1.7% 4.2% 0.0% 53.6% 46.4% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 94.2% 5.8% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.8% 0.8% 97.4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 5.2% 94.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 99.7% 0.3% 47.2% 33.6% 19.2% 95.5% 0.0% 4.5% 0.7% 98.9% 0.4% 90.9% 5.0% 4.1% 0.2% 73.1% 26.8% 98.4% 0.0% 1.5% 46.6% 0.6% 52.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 0.3% 95.2% 0.0% 0.0% 96.9% 0.0% 94.2% 0.5% 0.0% 28.8% 70.8% 0.0% 1.6% 97.5% 0.0% 33.1% 0.1% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% 92.9% 0.0% 0.1% 4.4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 93.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 3.1% 5.4% 0.5% 1.0% 66.8% 0.0% 0.1% 95.5% 0.0% 7.0%

QC

Berthier—Maskinongé Blainville Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Bourassa Brome—Missisquoi Brossard—Saint-Lambert Centre-du-Bas-Saint-Laurent Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Charlevoix—Montmorency Châteauguay—Lacolle Chicoutimi Compton—Stanstead Dorval—Lachine Drummond Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Gatineau Hochelaga Honoré-Mercier Hull—Aylmer Joliette Jonquière La Pointe-de-l'Île La Prairie Lac-Saint-Jean Lac-Saint-Louis LaSalle—Verdun Laurentides—Labelle Laurier—Sainte-Marie Laval—Les Îles LeMoyne Lévis—Lotbinière Longueuil Louis-Hébert Louis-Saint-Laurent

14% 11% 10% 9% 13% 14% 16% 32% 24% 13% 27% 13% 15% 17% 20% 9% 8% 14% 11% 11% 36% 8% 11% 44% 29% 10% 11% 5% 18% 12% 41% 10% 23% 39%

20% 18% 18% 45% 30% 40% 17% 15% 13% 18% 14% 20% 36% 16% 24% 22% 18% 40% 29% 14% 11% 16% 21% 12% 40% 25% 21% 17% 29% 21% 14% 18% 22% 15%

33% 41% 37% 25% 34% 29% 35% 36% 31% 41% 29% 39% 35% 43% 20% 53% 41% 29% 49% 38% 33% 41% 42% 22% 23% 39% 35% 40% 39% 37% 29% 42% 30% 31%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 2% 3% 2% 2% 6% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2%

30% 26% 33% 18% 20% 15% 29% 15% 30% 26% 27% 25% 11% 21% 32% 13% 30% 15% 7% 31% 18% 31% 24% 20% 2% 22% 30% 34% 12% 27% 13% 27% 23% 13%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.7% 5.7% 0.0% 31.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 64.1% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97.0% 0.0% 13.3% 88.4%

0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 27.9% 96.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 59.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 96.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 5.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0%

67.8% 99.2% 73.1% 0.1% 71.9% 3.8% 84.0% 73.3% 50.4% 99.1% 41.6% 98.8% 41.0% 100.0% 1.8% 100.0% 96.8% 3.3% 99.8% 86.7% 35.9% 95.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.1% 98.9% 79.7% 85.0% 94.7% 95.0% 3.0% 98.7% 75.2% 11.6%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

31.4% 0.8% 26.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 43.9% 0.9% 26.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87.4% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 20.1% 15.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 1.3% 6.7% 0.0%

Manicouagan 13% Mégantic—L'Érable 51% Mirabel 10% Montarville 11% Montcalm 9% Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup 37% Mont-Royal 37% Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount 19% Outremont 9% Papineau 6% Pierrefonds—Dollard 27% Pontiac 27% Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier 2% Québec 19% Repentigny 9% Richmond—Arthabaska 26% Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 11% Rivière-du-Nord 10% Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 5% Sainte-Rose 12% Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot 17% Saint-Jean 12% Saint-Laurent 20% Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel 15% Saint-Maurice—Champlain 18% Salaberry—Suroît 14% Shefford 16% Sherbrooke 10% Soulanges—Vaudreuil 19% Terrebonne 9% Trois-Rivières 15% Ville-Marie 13% Vimy 14% Ajax 28%

14% 15% 16% 21% 13% 13% 48% 45% 28% 44% 37% 24% 21% 17% 16% 15% 19% 14% 16% 22% 13% 17% 49% 48% 19% 16% 17% 18% 20% 15% 18% 34% 28% 46%

38% 17% 41% 37% 43% 29% 10% 28% 49% 22% 27% 38% 47% 34% 43% 23% 41% 46% 45% 40% 44% 39% 22% 25% 33% 35% 42% 35% 35% 43% 41% 35% 34% 20%

3% 2% 3% 3% 5% 2% 3% 6% 3% 3% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 6%

31% 15% 30% 28% 30% 19% 2% 3% 11% 24% 4% 8% 26% 26% 29% 33% 26% 27% 32% 23% 23% 29% 6% 9% 27% 32% 22% 34% 22% 29% 23% 15% 20%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 92.1% 0.0% 4.3% 95.7% 0.0% 99.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 100.0% 3.9% 91.3% 4.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.5% 0.0% 17.8% 0.7% 99.3%

86.7% 0.0% 96.2% 92.3% 97.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.3% 99.9% 0.0% 4.9% 94.5% 99.8% 89.1% 98.8% 4.2% 99.2% 99.9% 98.4% 99.7% 99.9% 94.4% 0.0% 0.0% 81.6% 69.8% 99.9% 57.9% 97.8% 98.2% 99.8% 53.5% 81.8% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

13.3% 0.0% 3.8% 7.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 9.9% 1.2% 82.6% 0.8% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 30.2% 0.1% 42.1% 1.5% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5%

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Barrie—Innisfil Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Bay of Quinte Beaches—East York Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Brant Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Burlington Cambridge Chatham-Kent—Leamington Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Dufferin—Caledon Durham Eglinton—Lawrence Elgin—Middlesex—London Essex Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke—Lakeshore Etobicoke North Flamborough—Glanbrook Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Guelph Haldimand—Norfolk Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Hamilton Centre

18% 35% 46% 39% 41% 9% 31% 15% 33% 30% 26% 35% 40% 40% 39% 39% 1% 23% 25% 29% 43% 44% 32% 45% 34% 27% 26% 19% 43% 37% 20% 37% 49% 12%

21% 36% 20% 25% 26% 37% 33% 38% 36% 44% 45% 25% 24% 30% 22% 23% 34% 44% 44% 49% 20% 21% 45% 20% 20% 48% 42% 49% 23% 36% 50% 32% 18% 19%

55% 21% 26% 26% 27% 47% 28% 43% 24% 21% 25% 34% 23% 23% 33% 32% 59% 27% 26% 16% 18% 28% 16% 30% 40% 20% 25% 29% 27% 21% 21% 25% 26% 66%

5% 7% 9% 10% 6% 7% 8% 5% 7% 5% 5% 6% 13% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 6% 18% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 7% 3% 7% 6% 9% 6% 7% 3%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 42.8% 57.0% 0.3% 99.5% 0.1% 0.5% 93.9% 3.3% 2.8% 97.1% 1.0% 1.9% 0.0% 8.5% 91.5% 28.4% 57.6% 14.0% 0.0% 26.6% 73.4% 31.9% 67.0% 1.2% 3.2% 96.8% 0.0% 0.5% 99.4% 0.1% 56.0% 2.7% 41.3% 97.9% 1.6% 0.5% 90.8% 8.9% 0.2% 80.3% 0.5% 19.3% 81.3% 0.3% 18.4% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 99.3% 0.7% 0.3% 99.1% 0.7% 0.4% 99.6% 0.0% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 99.2% 0.0% 0.8% 3.3% 96.7% 0.0% 98.0% 0.0% 2.0% 17.7% 0.0% 82.3% 0.3% 99.7% 0.0% 0.8% 98.6% 0.6% 0.0% 99.8% 0.2% 98.6% 0.4% 1.0% 56.3% 43.6% 0.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 74.2% 23.6% 2.3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Ont.

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Hamilton Mountain Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Hastings—Lennox and Addington Huron—Bruce Kanata—Carleton Kenora King—Vaughan Kingston and the Islands Kitchener Centre Kitchener—Conestoga Kitchener South—Hespeler Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Lanark—Frontenac Leeds—Grenville London—Fanshawe London North Centre London West Markham—Stouffville Markham—Thornhill Markham—Unionville Milton Mississauga Centre Mississauga—Cooksville Mississauga—Erin Mills Mississauga—Lakeshore Mississauga—Malton Mississauga—Streetsville Nepean Newmarket—Aurora Niagara Centre Niagara Falls Niagara West Nickel Belt

25% 20% 29% 44% 39% 42% 31% 42% 24% 26% 40% 37% 44% 49% 50% 21% 23% 31% 34% 22% 29% 41% 26% 28% 31% 31% 21% 30% 39% 38% 27% 40% 48% 14%

19% 21% 32% 22% 24% 31% 30% 36% 44% 40% 30% 26% 20% 21% 21% 18% 41% 33% 37% 44% 42% 31% 45% 45% 43% 45% 45% 43% 32% 32% 20% 25% 21% 21%

50% 53% 33% 28% 31% 20% 34% 17% 25% 27% 23% 30% 29% 22% 22% 55% 29% 31% 22% 28% 22% 21% 24% 23% 21% 18% 29% 20% 22% 21% 48% 28% 24% 60%

5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 7% 7% 8% 5% 7% 7% 5%

0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 98.7% 84.8% 94.1% 26.6% 74.6% 0.1% 2.3% 90.8% 80.3% 97.5% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.3% 25.8% 32.3% 0.0% 4.7% 90.8% 0.6% 1.3% 5.9% 2.8% 0.1% 4.6% 85.6% 75.0% 0.1% 95.1% 100.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 35.5% 0.0% 1.6% 5.9% 21.0% 25.4% 99.9% 95.6% 9.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 95.0% 49.3% 67.2% 98.6% 95.2% 9.2% 99.3% 98.6% 94.1% 97.2% 99.0% 95.4% 14.3% 24.7% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%

100.0% 100.0% 48.5% 1.3% 13.6% 0.0% 52.3% 0.0% 0.1% 2.1% 0.3% 15.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4.7% 24.9% 0.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 99.9% 3.4% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Nipissing—Timiskaming Northumberland—Pine Ridge Oakville Oakville North—Burlington Oshawa Ottawa Centre Ottawa—Orléans Ottawa South Ottawa—Vanier Ottawa West—Nepean Oxford Parkdale—High Park Parry Sound—Muskoka Perth—Wellington Peterborough Pickering—Uxbridge Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Richmond Hill Rideau—Carleton St. Catharines St. Paul's Sarnia—Lambton Sault Ste. Marie Scarborough—Agincourt Scarborough Centre Scarborough—Guildwood Scarborough North Scarborough—Rouge Park Scarborough Southwest Simcoe—Grey Simcoe North Spadina—Fort York Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Sudbury

22% 42% 37% 40% 35% 11% 33% 23% 17% 33% 46% 3% 40% 39% 38% 29% 52% 27% 50% 38% 20% 39% 25% 21% 19% 21% 20% 18% 18% 39% 38% 8% 51% 14%

43% 26% 38% 34% 15% 24% 43% 49% 42% 36% 16% 39% 19% 26% 26% 42% 22% 44% 26% 27% 46% 20% 27% 51% 39% 42% 35% 41% 35% 24% 27% 30% 23% 25%

26% 25% 18% 20% 43% 57% 18% 23% 33% 24% 31% 53% 30% 27% 29% 21% 21% 22% 18% 29% 27% 35% 43% 23% 36% 32% 41% 36% 40% 27% 26% 55% 22% 56%

8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 6% 11% 8% 6% 8% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 7% 11% 9% 7% 5% 5%

0.1% 99.2% 0.7% 98.8% 0.7% 0.5% 47.9% 52.1% 0.0% 78.6% 21.4% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 86.8% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 92.2% 7.8% 25.8% 73.1% 1.1% 97.6% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 3.7% 96.3% 91.1% 0.2% 8.7% 91.7% 4.4% 4.0% 89.7% 2.5% 7.8% 5.0% 94.9% 0.1% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 98.8% 0.1% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 85.8% 6.2% 8.0% 0.0% 99.7% 0.3% 66.6% 0.1% 33.3% 0.3% 1.5% 98.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 62.3% 37.6% 0.0% 91.0% 9.0% 0.0% 19.4% 80.5% 0.0% 72.0% 28.0% 0.0% 22.6% 77.4% 89.2% 3.9% 6.9% 89.1% 7.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Man.

Thornhill 48% Thunder Bay—Rainy River 13% Thunder Bay—Superior North 15% Timmins—James Bay 17% Toronto Centre 4% Toronto—Danforth 1% University—Rosedale 7% Vaughan—Woodbridge 41% Waterloo 27% Wellington—Halton Hills 50% Whitby 43% Willowdale 26% Windsor—Tecumseh 21% Windsor West 19% York Centre 34% York—Simcoe 48% York South—Weston 11% York West 9% Brandon—Souris 47% Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley 38% Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 8% Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa 48% Elmwood—Transcona 28% Kildonan—St. Paul 42% Portage—Lisgar 61% Provencher 55% Saint Boniface—Saint Vital 31% Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman 50% Winnipeg Centre 7% Winnipeg North 7% Winnipeg South 32% Winnipeg South Centre 22% Battlefords—Lloydminster 48% Cypress Hills—Grasslands 52%

30% 28% 23% 23% 46% 24% 37% 39% 46% 23% 22% 46% 19% 17% 40% 19% 39% 54% 19% 34% 33% 19% 21% 21% 19% 20% 47% 18% 27% 51% 48% 53% 18% 21%

16% 54% 56% 55% 42% 67% 49% 15% 19% 17% 27% 24% 55% 59% 21% 24% 45% 33% 28% 23% 56% 28% 48% 34% 14% 22% 19% 28% 58% 39% 17% 21% 31% 23%

5% 5% 5% 5% 8% 9% 7% 5% 8% 10% 8% 3% 6% 5% 5% 9% 5% 4% 6% 5% 3% 5% 4% 3% 6% 4% 3% 4% 8% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3%

98.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 69.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 58.3% 41.7% 0.4% 99.6% 100.0% 0.0% 97.7% 0.5% 0.2% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 80.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 0.0% 99.7% 99.6% 0.0% 69.0% 30.6% 0.0% 0.2% 99.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 88.3% 0.1% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.2% 98.8% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 94.1% 1.8% 98.2% 0.0% 100.0% 99.4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 30.5% 100.0% 94.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 0.1% 0.0% 80.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 99.8% 0.4% 99.7% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 100.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Sask. Alb.

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 28% Humboldt—Warman—Martensville—Rosetown 50% Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan 43% Prince Albert 44% Regina—Lewvan 26% Regina—Qu'Appelle 36% Regina—Wascana 17% Saskatoon—Grasswood 33% Saskatoon—University 31% Saskatoon West 24% Souris—Moose Mountain 55% Yorkton—Melville 51% Banff—Airdrie 57% Battle River—Crowfoot 69% Bow River 70% Calgary Centre 41% Calgary Confederation 39% Calgary Forest Lawn 49% Calgary Heritage 59% Calgary Midnapore 61% Calgary Nose Hill 54% Calgary Rocky Ridge 54% Calgary Shepard 60% Calgary Signal Hill 50% Calgary Skyview 42% Edmonton Centre 27% Edmonton Griesbach 33% Edmonton Manning 38% Edmonton Mill Woods 39% Edmonton Riverbend 39% Edmonton Strathcona 19% Edmonton West 44% Edmonton—Wetaskiwin 62% Foothills 66%

20% 19% 19% 19% 21% 18% 56% 20% 23% 17% 21% 22% 12% 7% 8% 23% 22% 22% 12% 11% 16% 17% 12% 20% 33% 29% 12% 16% 18% 20% 8% 18% 10% 8%

48% 27% 35% 34% 50% 43% 24% 44% 42% 56% 21% 25% 23% 20% 19% 26% 26% 24% 23% 22% 24% 23% 23% 22% 21% 41% 52% 44% 41% 36% 71% 35% 24% 21%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 7% 3% 3% 10% 13% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 5% 8% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 1% 3% 4% 4%

0.2% 0.0% 99.8% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 86.2% 0.0% 13.8% 92.7% 0.0% 7.3% 0.1% 0.0% 99.9% 21.0% 0.0% 78.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% 89.9% 9.8% 0.2% 90.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.3% 0.1% 0.6% 97.2% 0.1% 2.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 94.1% 5.9% 0.0% 3.2% 2.3% 94.5% 0.9% 0.0% 99.1% 23.0% 0.0% 77.0% 42.8% 0.0% 57.2% 63.4% 0.0% 36.6% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 87.1% 0.0% 12.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

BC

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Grande Prairie Lakeland Lethbridge Medicine Hat Peace River—Westlock Red Deer—Mountain View Red Deer—Wolf Creek St. Albert—Edmonton Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Sturgeon River Yellowhead Abbotsford Burnaby North—Seymour Burnaby South Cariboo—Prince George Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola Chilliwack—Hope Cloverdale—Langley City Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Courtenay—Alberni Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Delta Fleetwood—Port Kells Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo Kelowna—Lake Country Kootenay—Columbia Langley—Aldergrove Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon Nanaimo—Ladysmith New Westminster—Burnaby North Okanagan—Shuswap North Vancouver Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

59% 63% 65% 42% 56% 65% 65% 64% 44% 51% 64% 65% 46% 19% 18% 37% 35% 39% 32% 31% 22% 24% 23% 23% 33% 38% 31% 40% 35% 21% 13% 35% 22% 30%

15% 8% 10% 14% 15% 8% 8% 8% 17% 15% 10% 7% 18% 29% 25% 15% 20% 21% 25% 21% 18% 17% 32% 29% 14% 21% 13% 22% 18% 18% 21% 17% 43% 18%

23% 25% 21% 40% 25% 23% 22% 24% 35% 29% 23% 23% 30% 47% 53% 41% 37% 34% 37% 43% 52% 51% 40% 45% 47% 32% 49% 32% 42% 53% 61% 37% 29% 47%

3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 7% 9% 6% 5% 5% 8% 8% 5% 3% 6% 10% 7% 6% 5% 8% 5% 12% 6% 6%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 57.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 86.5% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 38.4% 51.3% 87.2% 31.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 3.1% 90.1% 0.8% 91.5% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 54.6% 0.2% 1.4%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97.6% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.5% 100.0% 61.6% 48.6% 12.8% 67.3% 94.3% 100.0% 100.0% 86.8% 98.7% 96.9% 9.8% 99.2% 8.4% 80.1% 100.0% 100.0% 45.4% 2.2% 98.6%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

BC Terr.

Port Moody—Coquitlam 21% 21% Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies 42% 15% Richmond Centre 32% 32% Saanich—Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca 19% 21% Saanich—Gulf Islands 16% 16% Skeena—Bulkley Valley 20% 13% South Okanagan—West Kootenay 26% 16% South Surrey—White Rock 28% 33% Steveston—Richmond East 29% 32% Surrey Centre 14% 32% Surrey—Newton 6% 48% Vancouver Centre 7% 41% Vancouver East 0% 21% Vancouver Granville 12% 42% Vancouver Island North—Comox—Powell River 23% 18% Vancouver Kingsway 9% 28% Vancouver Quadra 17% 53% Vancouver South 20% 46% Victoria 2% 21% West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky 21% Country 37% Yukon 23% 40% Western Artic 22% 25% Nunavut 40% 36%

53% 37% 30% 47% 22% 64% 49% 32% 35% 50% 44% 36% 71% 35% 53% 59% 25% 32% 51% 34% 16% 48% 21%

5% 7% 6% 14% 46% 4% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3% 16% 8% 10% 6% 4% 6% 3% 25% 8% 20% 5% 4%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use the federal vote intentions. ** winning=getting the most seats

0.0% 87.9% 49.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%

0.0% 0.0% 31.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.4% 28.5% 0.5% 69.4% 77.6% 0.0% 85.8% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.2% 0.0% 69.3%

100.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% 18.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 34.7% 0.0% 55.9% 0.0% 99.5% 0.0% 30.6% 0.0% 22.4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 30.4% 0.0%

proj Canada 17.07.2015.pdf

Electoral projections for the next federal elections. Projections électorales pour la prochaine élection fédérale. 17/07/2015. www.tooclosetocall.ca. NFL PEI.

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