proj Canada 22.05.2015.pdf

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Electoral projections for the next federal elections Projections électorales pour la prochaine élection fédérale

www.tooclosetocall.ca www.silatendancesemaintient.ca

22/05/2015 % Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Canada*

CPC 17.0 17.0 31.0 37.0 45.0 28.0 28.1

LPC 47.0 26.0 27.0 29.0 15.0 23.0 26.1

NDP 23.0 29.0 31.0 23.0 30.0 32.0 29.6

Green 10.0 4.0 8.0 8.0 5.0 14.0 7.6

Bloc 22.0 5.4

Seats/Sièges Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Territories

0 8 51 16 27 12 1

28 17 36 6 0 10 1

4 44 34 6 7 19 1

0 0 0 0 0 1 0

9 -

Canada

115

98

115

1

9

NFL

Probability of winning Probabilité de gagner Riding/Circonscription Avalon Bonavista-Burin-Trinity Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame Labrador Long Range Mountains St. John’s East

64.0%

3.9%

32.1%

0.0%

0.0%

CPC 17% 10% 10% 14% 5% 0%

LPC 53% 74% 75% 63% 75% 26%

NDP 23% 8% 7% 15% 12% 65%

Green 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8%

Bloc

Probability of winning the riding Probabilité de remporter la circonscription

CPC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

LPC NDP 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Green 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bloc

NFL PEI NS NB

St. John’s South—Mount Pearl Cardigan Charlottetown Egmont Malpeque Cape Breton—Canso Central Nova Cumberland—Colchester Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Halifax Halifax West Kings—Hants Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook South Shore—St. Margarets Sydney—Victoria West Nova Acadie—Bathurst Beauséjour Fredericton Fundy Royal Madawaska—Restigouche Miramichi—Grand Lake Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe New Brunswick Southwest Saint John—Rothesay Tobique—Mactaquac Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Abitibi—Témiscamingue Ahuntsic-Cartierville Alfred-Pellan Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia Beauce Beauport—Limoilou

3% 13% 12% 26% 13% 12% 26% 24% 4% 0% 10% 16% 10% 15% 17% 19% 0% 11% 19% 29% 15% 25% 16% 28% 22% 32% 23% 10% 9% 12% 15% 14% 52% 26%

48% 74% 59% 57% 66% 64% 37% 42% 54% 43% 56% 59% 30% 40% 59% 61% 32% 60% 48% 34% 60% 46% 50% 38% 39% 41% 23% 19% 41% 34% 27% 35% 24% 19%

41% 4% 19% 7% 9% 14% 24% 19% 31% 45% 23% 14% 49% 33% 13% 7% 61% 17% 20% 24% 15% 19% 23% 20% 28% 15% 31% 37% 19% 29% 31% 14% 16% 33%

8% 10% 10% 10% 12% 11% 13% 14% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 10% 12% 7% 11% 13% 14% 10% 11% 12% 14% 11% 11% 6% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3%

17% 30% 28% 21% 22% 34% 5% 19%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 65.5% 26.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 92.2% 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 75.5% 21.1% 86.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 13.6%

82.0% 18.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 98.6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 34.3% 0.2% 73.7% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 41.2% 58.8% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.3% 99.7% 81.6% 18.2% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 99.3% 0.0% 7.7% 0.1% 100.0% 0.0% 84.5% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 24.5% 0.0% 75.1% 3.8% 14.0% 0.0% 7.7% 82.7% 0.1% 87.8% 98.6% 0.0% 78.2% 21.3% 23.5% 73.7% 57.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 85.7%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.3% 12.2% 1.4% 0.6% 2.8% 42.9% 0.0% 0.2%

QC

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Beloeil—Chambly Berthier—Maskinongé Blainville Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Bourassa Brome—Missisquoi Brossard—Saint-Lambert Centre-du-Bas-Saint-Laurent Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Charlevoix—Montmorency Châteauguay—Lacolle Chicoutimi Compton—Stanstead Dorval—Lachine Drummond Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Gatineau Hochelaga Honoré-Mercier Hull—Aylmer Joliette Jonquière La Pointe-de-l'Île La Prairie Lac-Saint-Jean Lac-Saint-Louis LaSalle—Verdun Laurentides—Labelle Laurier—Sainte-Marie Laval—Les Îles LeMoyne Lévis—Lotbinière

14% 45% 9% 13% 10% 9% 9% 12% 13% 15% 31% 23% 12% 26% 12% 14% 16% 20% 8% 8% 13% 11% 10% 35% 8% 10% 43% 29% 10% 10% 4% 17% 11% 41%

23% 19% 23% 24% 22% 22% 48% 34% 44% 21% 19% 16% 22% 19% 24% 39% 21% 28% 27% 21% 43% 33% 18% 16% 20% 25% 16% 44% 28% 25% 20% 33% 25% 18%

21% 20% 34% 28% 37% 32% 21% 29% 24% 31% 32% 27% 36% 24% 34% 30% 38% 16% 48% 37% 25% 44% 34% 29% 37% 37% 17% 18% 34% 31% 37% 35% 33% 24%

5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 6% 3% 4% 4% 3% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3%

38% 14% 29% 30% 26% 33% 18% 20% 15% 30% 15% 30% 26% 27% 25% 11% 21% 32% 14% 30% 15% 7% 32% 18% 31% 24% 20% 2% 22% 30% 34% 12% 27% 14%

0.0% 0.8% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 77.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.0% 43.1% 0.2% 7.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 34.5% 1.8% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 90.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 25.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.1% 81.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.5% 99.5% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.3% 0.0% 7.1% 99.3% 0.0%

0.3% 0.0% 75.6% 35.9% 95.4% 48.4% 0.0% 22.8% 0.0% 63.6% 56.6% 24.9% 95.8% 17.1% 90.1% 9.3% 99.7% 0.1% 99.9% 91.4% 0.1% 94.7% 65.1% 18.6% 86.5% 97.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87.2% 52.2% 69.3% 60.7% 79.2% 0.7%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

98.9% 0.0% 21.8% 53.5% 3.9% 51.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 35.4% 0.0% 68.0% 3.2% 46.5% 4.7% 0.0% 0.2% 74.1% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 34.8% 0.0% 13.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 40.7% 30.7% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0%

QC Longueuil 9% Louis-Hébert 22% Louis-Saint-Laurent 38% Manicouagan 12% Mégantic—L'Érable 51% Mirabel 10% Montarville 10% Montcalm 8% Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup 37% Mont-Royal 37% Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount 18% Outremont 8% Papineau 6% Pierrefonds—Dollard 27% Pontiac 27% Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier 1% Québec 18% Repentigny 8% Richmond—Arthabaska 25% Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 11% Rivière-du-Nord 9% Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 5% Sainte-Rose 11% Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot 16% Saint-Jean 11% Saint-Laurent 20% Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel 14% Saint-Maurice—Champlain 18% Salaberry—Suroît 13% Shefford 15% Sherbrooke 10% Soulanges—Vaudreuil 18% Terrebonne 9% Trois-Rivières 14%

22% 26% 19% 18% 19% 20% 25% 17% 17% 51% 48% 31% 48% 40% 28% 26% 22% 20% 20% 23% 18% 19% 26% 17% 20% 53% 52% 23% 20% 21% 22% 24% 19% 23%

37% 26% 27% 34% 12% 37% 32% 39% 25% 6% 23% 45% 18% 23% 33% 41% 30% 39% 18% 36% 42% 41% 36% 40% 35% 17% 21% 28% 31% 38% 30% 31% 39% 37%

4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 3% 4% 7% 5% 4% 6% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4%

27% 23% 13% 31% 15% 30% 28% 30% 19% 2% 3% 11% 25% 4% 8% 26% 26% 29% 33% 26% 27% 32% 23% 23% 29% 6% 9% 27% 32% 22% 34% 22% 29% 23%

0.0% 13.4% 95.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 8.9% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%

0.5% 39.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 99.1% 100.0% 1.6% 100.0% 98.9% 19.5% 2.1% 4.4% 0.0% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.4% 100.0% 100.0% 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% 10.8% 0.0% 0.8%

95.2% 35.0% 4.6% 67.4% 0.0% 86.9% 72.5% 92.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 98.4% 0.0% 0.3% 71.6% 96.5% 66.5% 93.7% 0.3% 94.3% 99.4% 94.4% 93.8% 99.8% 83.6% 0.0% 0.0% 52.4% 42.9% 99.3% 29.0% 84.6% 93.0% 98.5%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

4.3% 12.1% 0.0% 32.6% 0.0% 13.1% 21.3% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 27.8% 6.2% 88.9% 4.2% 0.6% 5.6% 1.0% 0.2% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.2% 56.8% 0.3% 69.9% 4.2% 7.0% 0.7%

Ville-Marie Vimy Ajax Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Barrie—Innisfil Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Bay of Quinte Beaches—East York Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Brant Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Burlington Cambridge Chatham-Kent—Leamington Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Dufferin—Caledon Durham Eglinton—Lawrence Elgin—Middlesex—London Essex Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke—Lakeshore Etobicoke North Flamborough—Glanbrook Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Guelph

12% 13% 28% 19% 36% 46% 40% 40% 9% 31% 16% 34% 30% 27% 35% 40% 40% 39% 39% 2% 23% 25% 28% 43% 44% 32% 45% 34% 27% 26% 20% 43% 37% 20%

37% 32% 42% 17% 32% 16% 21% 23% 33% 29% 33% 32% 40% 40% 22% 19% 26% 18% 19% 30% 41% 41% 45% 16% 18% 42% 16% 17% 44% 39% 46% 20% 33% 46%

31% 30% 22% 58% 24% 28% 28% 29% 49% 30% 45% 26% 23% 27% 36% 25% 25% 34% 34% 61% 29% 29% 18% 20% 30% 18% 32% 43% 21% 27% 30% 29% 22% 22%

5% 4% 8% 7% 9% 11% 12% 8% 9% 9% 6% 9% 7% 6% 8% 16% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 8% 21% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 4% 9% 7% 11%

15% 20%

0.0% 83.7% 16.3% 0.0% 64.9% 34.6% 3.1% 96.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 65.2% 32.7% 2.1% 99.3% 0.0% 0.7% 93.8% 0.4% 5.8% 95.5% 0.3% 4.2% 0.0% 1.6% 98.4% 39.2% 26.9% 34.0% 0.0% 6.4% 93.6% 54.9% 39.4% 5.7% 9.2% 90.3% 0.5% 2.7% 95.2% 2.0% 47.8% 0.3% 52.0% 98.4% 0.2% 1.4% 96.3% 2.6% 1.0% 71.2% 0.0% 28.8% 70.5% 0.1% 29.5% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.1% 95.0% 4.8% 0.9% 94.9% 4.2% 0.8% 99.2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98.0% 0.0% 2.0% 8.9% 91.1% 0.0% 95.8% 0.0% 4.2% 12.1% 0.0% 87.8% 0.8% 99.1% 0.0% 2.5% 93.3% 4.3% 0.0% 98.6% 1.4% 97.3% 0.1% 2.6% 70.6% 29.2% 0.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.4%

Ont.

Haldimand—Norfolk Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Hamilton Centre Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Hamilton Mountain Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Hastings—Lennox and Addington Huron—Bruce Kanata—Carleton Kenora King—Vaughan Kingston and the Islands Kitchener Centre Kitchener—Conestoga Kitchener South—Hespeler Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Lanark—Frontenac Leeds—Grenville London—Fanshawe London North Centre London West Markham—Stouffville Markham—Thornhill Markham—Unionville Milton Mississauga Centre Mississauga—Cooksville Mississauga—Erin Mills Mississauga—Lakeshore Mississauga—Malton Mississauga—Streetsville Nepean Newmarket—Aurora Niagara Centre

37% 49% 12% 26% 21% 29% 43% 39% 41% 32% 42% 24% 26% 40% 37% 44% 49% 49% 21% 23% 30% 34% 22% 30% 41% 26% 28% 31% 31% 22% 31% 38% 39% 27%

28% 15% 15% 16% 18% 28% 19% 20% 29% 25% 31% 42% 36% 27% 22% 17% 19% 18% 14% 38% 30% 33% 40% 38% 27% 41% 40% 38% 41% 41% 39% 30% 28% 16%

27% 28% 68% 52% 55% 35% 30% 33% 21% 36% 19% 27% 28% 24% 32% 31% 24% 24% 58% 31% 33% 25% 30% 24% 23% 26% 25% 23% 19% 30% 22% 24% 24% 50%

8% 9% 5% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 10% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 9% 8% 10% 7%

82.9% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 97.8% 77.9% 96.8% 26.0% 92.1% 0.2% 4.9% 96.6% 74.5% 95.8% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.5% 28.3% 55.1% 0.1% 13.1% 96.7% 1.9% 4.3% 17.3% 9.7% 0.3% 11.9% 90.5% 90.6% 0.1%

9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.2% 3.1% 3.8% 7.9% 99.3% 84.9% 2.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 80.5% 22.0% 41.9% 91.8% 85.3% 3.1% 96.6% 94.9% 82.2% 90.3% 92.6% 87.8% 8.0% 8.2% 0.0%

7.8% 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 73.9% 2.2% 22.0% 0.1% 70.2% 0.0% 0.5% 10.2% 0.6% 24.9% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 19.0% 49.7% 2.9% 8.1% 1.6% 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 7.1% 0.4% 1.4% 1.2% 99.9%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Niagara Falls Niagara West Nickel Belt Nipissing—Timiskaming Northumberland—Pine Ridge Oakville Oakville North—Burlington Oshawa Ottawa Centre Ottawa—Orléans Ottawa South Ottawa—Vanier Ottawa West—Nepean Oxford Parkdale—High Park Parry Sound—Muskoka Perth—Wellington Peterborough Pickering—Uxbridge Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Richmond Hill Rideau—Carleton St. Catharines St. Paul's Sarnia—Lambton Sault Ste. Marie Scarborough—Agincourt Scarborough Centre Scarborough—Guildwood Scarborough North Scarborough—Rouge Park Scarborough Southwest Simcoe—Grey Simcoe North

40% 48% 15% 23% 42% 37% 40% 35% 11% 32% 22% 17% 32% 46% 4% 41% 39% 38% 30% 52% 27% 49% 38% 20% 39% 25% 20% 19% 21% 20% 18% 18% 39% 38%

22% 17% 16% 39% 24% 34% 30% 10% 22% 41% 47% 40% 34% 12% 35% 14% 22% 24% 38% 18% 40% 23% 24% 43% 17% 23% 48% 35% 38% 31% 37% 31% 19% 23%

30% 26% 63% 28% 26% 20% 21% 46% 59% 20% 24% 34% 26% 33% 54% 32% 29% 31% 23% 23% 24% 19% 30% 29% 38% 46% 25% 39% 34% 43% 38% 43% 30% 28%

8% 9% 7% 10% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 7% 7% 9% 8% 9% 7% 13% 10% 8% 10% 7% 9% 8% 8% 9% 7% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 8% 13% 11%

93.2% 0.2% 6.6% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.6% 94.1% 5.3% 98.8% 0.2% 1.0% 66.3% 33.7% 0.0% 90.8% 9.1% 0.1% 8.0% 0.0% 92.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 9.0% 90.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 79.3% 20.7% 33.1% 61.9% 5.0% 95.3% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.4% 99.6% 86.2% 0.0% 13.8% 90.3% 0.6% 9.1% 84.6% 0.6% 14.8% 13.1% 85.9% 1.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 94.8% 1.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.8% 0.9% 14.3% 0.0% 97.9% 2.1% 53.9% 0.0% 46.1% 0.3% 0.0% 99.7% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.1% 29.9% 70.0% 0.1% 72.5% 27.3% 0.0% 4.4% 95.6% 0.0% 43.2% 56.7% 0.0% 5.8% 94.2% 86.3% 0.5% 13.2% 90.4% 1.4% 8.2%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Man.

Spadina—Fort York 9% Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 51% Sudbury 15% Thornhill 49% Thunder Bay—Rainy River 14% Thunder Bay—Superior North 16% Timmins—James Bay 18% Toronto Centre 4% Toronto—Danforth 2% University—Rosedale 8% Vaughan—Woodbridge 41% Waterloo 27% Wellington—Halton Hills 50% Whitby 43% Willowdale 26% Windsor—Tecumseh 21% Windsor West 19% York Centre 34% York—Simcoe 49% York South—Weston 12% York West 10% Brandon—Souris 52% Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley 40% Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 12% Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa 53% Elmwood—Transcona 30% Kildonan—St. Paul 47% Portage—Lisgar 66% Provencher 60% Saint Boniface—Saint Vital 33% Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman 55% Winnipeg Centre 10% Winnipeg North 10% Winnipeg South 35%

26% 20% 20% 26% 24% 19% 18% 42% 19% 33% 35% 42% 19% 18% 43% 15% 13% 37% 14% 35% 50% 18% 41% 33% 19% 27% 21% 19% 20% 54% 17% 34% 58% 54%

57% 23% 58% 18% 56% 58% 58% 44% 68% 51% 17% 21% 19% 29% 27% 57% 62% 23% 26% 47% 34% 20% 10% 48% 20% 35% 26% 5% 13% 5% 20% 44% 25% 4%

8% 6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 9% 10% 9% 7% 10% 12% 10% 5% 7% 7% 7% 11% 7% 6% 10% 9% 6% 9% 8% 7% 10% 7% 8% 8% 12% 7% 7%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 80.4% 19.6% 1.4% 98.6% 100.0% 0.0% 96.9% 0.0% 0.7% 98.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 34.3% 65.2% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 98.6% 100.0% 0.0% 48.8% 51.2% 0.0% 1.4% 100.0% 0.0% 20.1% 13.5% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.3% 99.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 100.0% 0.3% 99.7%

100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 60.1% 100.0% 99.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.1% 100.0% 100.0% 0.5% 0.1% 95.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 98.6% 0.0% 66.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 88.5% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Sask. Alb.

Winnipeg South Centre 24% Battlefords—Lloydminster 49% Cypress Hills—Grasslands 54% Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 29% Humboldt—Warman—Martensville—Rosetown 52% Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan 44% Prince Albert 46% Regina—Lewvan 30% Regina—Qu'Appelle 40% Regina—Wascana 22% Saskatoon—Grasswood 37% Saskatoon—University 35% Saskatoon West 29% Souris—Moose Mountain 57% Yorkton—Melville 53% Banff—Airdrie 55% Battle River—Crowfoot 68% Bow River 68% Calgary Centre 38% Calgary Confederation 35% Calgary Forest Lawn 46% Calgary Heritage 57% Calgary Midnapore 58% Calgary Nose Hill 52% Calgary Rocky Ridge 51% Calgary Shepard 58% Calgary Signal Hill 47% Calgary Skyview 39% Edmonton Centre 25% Edmonton Griesbach 30% Edmonton Manning 35% Edmonton Mill Woods 36% Edmonton Riverbend 36% Edmonton Strathcona 20%

59% 19% 22% 21% 20% 19% 19% 28% 25% 63% 27% 30% 24% 21% 22% 13% 7% 9% 25% 23% 23% 13% 12% 17% 18% 13% 21% 34% 28% 13% 16% 18% 20% 10%

8% 24% 17% 43% 21% 29% 28% 35% 29% 9% 30% 28% 41% 14% 18% 24% 21% 20% 27% 28% 25% 25% 24% 25% 24% 24% 23% 23% 44% 54% 47% 44% 40% 69%

8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 8% 7% 8% 4% 3% 10% 14% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 5% 9% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 2%

0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 97.8% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98.5% 0.0% 1.5% 99.4% 0.0% 0.6% 18.0% 15.0% 67.0% 92.0% 1.3% 6.7% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 76.3% 6.8% 16.9% 66.8% 19.9% 13.3% 4.0% 1.7% 94.3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 95.4% 1.0% 3.5% 88.0% 1.2% 10.8% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 76.6% 23.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.8% 97.5% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6.5% 0.0% 93.5% 16.0% 0.0% 84.0% 33.1% 0.0% 66.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Alb. BC

Edmonton West Edmonton—Wetaskiwin Foothills Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Grande Prairie Lakeland Lethbridge Medicine Hat Peace River—Westlock Red Deer—Mountain View Red Deer—Wolf Creek St. Albert—Edmonton Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Sturgeon River Yellowhead Abbotsford Burnaby North—Seymour Burnaby South Cariboo—Prince George Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola Chilliwack—Hope Cloverdale—Langley City Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Courtenay—Alberni Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Delta Fleetwood—Port Kells Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo Kelowna—Lake Country Kootenay—Columbia Langley—Aldergrove Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon Nanaimo—Ladysmith New Westminster—Burnaby

40% 60% 64% 57% 62% 63% 39% 54% 63% 64% 62% 41% 48% 62% 63% 48% 23% 21% 39% 37% 42% 36% 34% 30% 31% 26% 26% 35% 40% 33% 44% 37% 28% 16%

18% 11% 9% 16% 8% 10% 15% 17% 9% 8% 8% 17% 16% 10% 8% 21% 30% 25% 17% 22% 23% 26% 22% 14% 13% 33% 30% 17% 23% 15% 23% 20% 13% 21%

38% 25% 22% 24% 26% 22% 42% 25% 24% 23% 25% 39% 31% 24% 24% 20% 37% 44% 31% 26% 24% 26% 33% 42% 43% 29% 34% 37% 21% 39% 20% 32% 45% 52%

3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 6% 4% 6% 11% 11% 10% 13% 14% 12% 12% 11% 14% 14% 12% 9% 12% 15% 13% 13% 11% 13% 11%

61.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 31.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 60.1% 99.6% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.3% 0.0% 92.9% 96.9% 99.8% 90.6% 62.2% 5.1% 3.3% 14.6% 8.3% 41.2% 99.9% 20.0% 99.9% 81.9% 0.6% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 5.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 60.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

38.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 68.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.5% 99.9% 7.1% 2.9% 0.1% 4.0% 36.5% 94.9% 96.7% 25.1% 71.5% 58.8% 0.1% 80.0% 0.0% 18.1% 99.4% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

BC Terr.

North Okanagan—Shuswap 37% 19% North Vancouver 26% 44% Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge 33% 19% Port Moody—Coquitlam 25% 22% Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies 44% 17% Richmond Centre 36% 33% Saanich—Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca 26% 16% Saanich—Gulf Islands 25% 13% Skeena—Bulkley Valley 21% 15% South Okanagan—West Kootenay 28% 18% South Surrey—White Rock 32% 34% Steveston—Richmond East 32% 33% Surrey Centre 17% 31% Surrey—Newton 8% 47% Vancouver Centre 9% 42% Vancouver East 2% 20% Vancouver Granville 16% 42% Vancouver Island North—Comox—Powell River 31% 14% Vancouver Kingsway 11% 26% Vancouver Quadra 20% 54% Vancouver South 23% 46% Victoria 11% 17% West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky 24% Country 39% Yukon 23% 41% Western Artic 21% 26% Nunavut 39% 36%

27% 17% 36% 42% 26% 19% 39% 10% 55% 39% 20% 24% 41% 35% 27% 64% 26% 43% 52% 14% 22% 41% 22% 14% 46% 19%

17% 12% 12% 11% 13% 12% 19% 52% 10% 14% 13% 11% 10% 9% 22% 14% 17% 12% 10% 12% 9% 31% 15% 23% 7% 6%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use the federal vote intentions. ** winning=getting the most seats

97.6% 0.9% 35.5% 0.7% 99.9% 72.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 42.3% 50.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5%

0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 99.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 64.5% 0.0% 0.1% 99.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 27.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96.9% 0.0% 57.4% 0.3% 0.0% 47.8% 2.0% 0.0% 7.2% 92.8% 0.0% 94.9% 5.1% 0.0% 99.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 99.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 94.7% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 91.8% 8.2% 96.0% 0.5% 0.0%