Electoral projections for the next federal elections Projections électorales pour la prochaine élection fédérale

www.tooclosetocall.ca

March 27th 2015, based on latest Ekos and Abacus polls % CPC Atlantic 26.5 Quebec 21.5 Ontario 35.5 Prairies 38.8 Alberta 46.0 BC 30.0 Canada* 31.9

www.silatendancesemaintient.ca NDP 18.0 27.0 22.5 20.0 17.5 26.0 23.1

Green 4.0 6.0 6.5 10.5 5.0 14.5 7.4

Bloc 19.0 4.4

Seats/Sièges Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Territories

6 15 50 18 30 15 1

23 17 53 6 2 12 1

3 42 18 4 2 14 1

0 0 0 0 0 1 0

4 -

Canada

135

114

84

1

4

Probability of winning Probabilité de gagner

NFL

LPC 50.0 25.5 34.0 29.3 25.5 27.0 30.8

Riding/Circonscription Avalon Bonavista-Burin-Trinity Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame Labrador Long Range Mountains St. John’s East

81.7%

18.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

CPC 26% 19% 19% 29% 14% 9%

LPC 55% 76% 77% 60% 77% 30%

NDP 17% 2% 2% 8% 6% 59%

Green 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Bloc

Probability of winning the riding Probabilité de remporter la circonscription

CPC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

LPC NDP 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

Green 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bloc

NFL PEI NS NB

St. John’s South—Mount Pearl Cardigan Charlottetown Egmont Malpeque Cape Breton—Canso Central Nova Cumberland—Colchester Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Halifax Halifax West Kings—Hants Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook South Shore—St. Margarets Sydney—Victoria West Nova Acadie—Bathurst Beauséjour Fredericton Fundy Royal Madawaska—Restigouche Miramichi—Grand Lake Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe New Brunswick Southwest Saint John—Rothesay Tobique—Mactaquac Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Abitibi—Témiscamingue Ahuntsic-Cartierville Alfred-Pellan Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia Beauce Beauport—Limoilou

13% 27% 22% 44% 28% 21% 44% 42% 14% 7% 19% 26% 19% 31% 27% 36% 5% 21% 36% 46% 31% 42% 26% 46% 39% 51% 29% 15% 12% 16% 20% 19% 57% 32%

50% 70% 61% 53% 64% 66% 36% 40% 56% 47% 59% 61% 33% 40% 61% 58% 36% 62% 46% 32% 58% 43% 52% 36% 38% 38% 22% 18% 40% 33% 26% 34% 23% 18%

35% 0% 14% 1% 3% 9% 15% 11% 25% 41% 17% 9% 43% 25% 8% 2% 58% 12% 13% 15% 8% 11% 17% 12% 19% 8% 28% 35% 17% 27% 29% 11% 13% 30%

2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 1% 5% 5% 6% 3% 3% 5% 6% 4% 3% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 5% 5%

13% 26% 25% 18% 19% 30% 2% 15%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 89.9% 63.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 98.3% 0.0% 48.6% 0.0% 93.8% 58.8% 97.1% 71.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 0.1% 100.0% 60.2%

98.2% 100.0% 100.0% 87.3% 100.0% 100.0% 10.1% 36.6% 100.0% 81.6% 100.0% 100.0% 5.4% 88.1% 100.0% 99.8% 0.1% 100.0% 90.0% 1.7% 100.0% 51.4% 100.0% 6.2% 41.2% 2.9% 0.2% 0.8% 99.8% 92.0% 51.5% 78.4% 0.0% 0.0%

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 94.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% 73.7% 0.0% 7.8% 37.8% 0.0% 0.0% 39.8%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 25.4% 0.2% 0.2% 2.4% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0%

QC

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Beloeil—Chambly Berthier—Maskinongé Blainville Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Bourassa Brome—Missisquoi Brossard—Saint-Lambert Centre-du-Bas-Saint-Laurent Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Charlevoix—Montmorency Châteauguay—Lacolle Chicoutimi Compton—Stanstead Dorval—Lachine Drummond Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Gatineau Hochelaga Honoré-Mercier Hull—Aylmer Joliette Jonquière La Pointe-de-l'Île La Prairie Lac-Saint-Jean Lac-Saint-Louis LaSalle—Verdun Laurentides—Labelle Laurier—Sainte-Marie Laval—Les Îles LeMoyne Lévis—Lotbinière

18% 50% 14% 18% 15% 13% 12% 17% 17% 19% 36% 28% 17% 32% 17% 17% 21% 24% 13% 11% 16% 15% 15% 40% 11% 14% 49% 32% 12% 14% 7% 21% 15% 46%

22% 18% 22% 24% 21% 21% 47% 33% 43% 20% 18% 16% 21% 18% 23% 38% 20% 28% 26% 21% 42% 32% 18% 15% 19% 24% 16% 43% 27% 24% 20% 32% 24% 17%

19% 17% 31% 26% 35% 30% 19% 27% 22% 29% 29% 25% 34% 21% 32% 29% 36% 14% 45% 36% 24% 42% 32% 26% 36% 35% 14% 16% 33% 29% 35% 32% 31% 22%

7% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 8% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 8% 5% 6% 6% 5% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5%

34% 10% 26% 26% 23% 29% 16% 17% 12% 26% 11% 27% 22% 23% 22% 8% 18% 29% 11% 27% 13% 5% 28% 14% 28% 21% 16% 0% 20% 26% 31% 9% 24% 10%

0.6% 1.2% 100.0% 0.0% 0.2% 4.4% 3.1% 15.7% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.4% 87.7% 0.0% 100.0% 1.9% 5.0% 85.6% 0.0% 50.5% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 93.3% 0.0% 1.5% 8.8% 0.0% 98.3% 3.2% 0.3% 11.8% 45.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 20.6% 0.0% 0.4% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 3.3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.5% 99.5% 0.0% 51.7% 0.1% 14.8% 0.0% 1.1% 1.7% 61.4% 0.5% 11.4% 100.0% 0.0%

0.5% 0.0% 69.1% 27.6% 91.0% 40.4% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 61.6% 14.4% 12.3% 93.6% 2.9% 83.6% 1.7% 96.4% 0.0% 98.7% 84.8% 0.0% 79.4% 54.3% 1.4% 80.1% 95.4% 0.0% 0.0% 48.1% 36.2% 59.3% 36.9% 72.2% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

97.8% 0.0% 26.3% 53.6% 6.5% 58.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 31.4% 0.0% 36.8% 4.6% 3.8% 6.0% 0.0% 0.1% 43.1% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 45.2% 0.0% 18.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 49.0% 39.6% 0.0% 15.9% 0.0%

QC Longueuil 13% Louis-Hébert 28% Louis-Saint-Laurent 44% Manicouagan 18% Mégantic—L'Érable 56% Mirabel 14% Montarville 15% Montcalm 13% Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup 41% Mont-Royal 39% Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount 21% Outremont 11% Papineau 9% Pierrefonds—Dollard 29% Pontiac 31% Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier 9% Québec 24% Repentigny 12% Richmond—Arthabaska 30% Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 15% Rivière-du-Nord 13% Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 8% Sainte-Rose 15% Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot 20% Saint-Jean 15% Saint-Laurent 22% Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel 17% Saint-Maurice—Champlain 22% Salaberry—Suroît 17% Shefford 19% Sherbrooke 14% Soulanges—Vaudreuil 22% Terrebonne 13% Trois-Rivières 18%

21% 25% 18% 18% 18% 19% 24% 16% 16% 50% 47% 30% 47% 39% 27% 25% 21% 19% 19% 22% 18% 18% 25% 16% 20% 52% 51% 22% 19% 20% 21% 23% 18% 21%

35% 23% 24% 31% 9% 35% 30% 37% 23% 4% 22% 43% 16% 22% 31% 37% 27% 37% 16% 34% 40% 40% 34% 37% 33% 15% 19% 26% 29% 35% 28% 29% 36% 34%

6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 7% 8% 5% 7% 10% 7% 6% 8% 6% 8% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6%

24% 19% 9% 27% 12% 26% 25% 26% 16% 0% 1% 8% 22% 2% 5% 21% 23% 26% 29% 22% 23% 29% 20% 20% 26% 3% 7% 24% 29% 19% 30% 19% 26% 20%

0.0% 69.3% 99.8% 9.6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 100.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 61.3% 0.0% 32.0% 0.0% 59.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 0.9% 1.8% 0.1% 21.3% 0.0% 1.4%

0.9% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98.8% 100.0% 18.8% 100.0% 98.8% 20.9% 1.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 4.6% 0.0% 0.2% 13.7% 0.0% 0.6% 100.0% 100.0% 11.9% 0.6% 0.7% 1.3% 12.5% 0.1% 1.7%

93.0% 16.1% 0.2% 65.1% 0.0% 79.9% 65.5% 88.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 81.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 98.0% 55.9% 90.8% 0.2% 89.1% 98.8% 90.9% 85.0% 98.5% 78.2% 0.0% 0.0% 34.7% 36.2% 97.1% 24.3% 63.3% 88.4% 95.6%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

6.1% 1.9% 0.0% 25.3% 0.0% 19.6% 24.1% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 10.4% 8.8% 40.2% 6.3% 1.2% 9.0% 1.3% 0.5% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 28.9% 62.3% 0.3% 74.3% 3.0% 11.4% 1.3%

Ville-Marie Vimy Ajax Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Barrie—Innisfil Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Bay of Quinte Beaches—East York Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Brant Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Burlington Cambridge Chatham-Kent—Leamington Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Dufferin—Caledon Durham Eglinton—Lawrence Elgin—Middlesex—London Essex Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke—Lakeshore Etobicoke North Flamborough—Glanbrook Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Guelph

14% 18% 32% 25% 39% 50% 44% 45% 17% 34% 20% 36% 33% 30% 39% 44% 43% 41% 44% 10% 30% 32% 35% 47% 48% 37% 50% 39% 33% 31% 26% 46% 41% 24%

36% 31% 50% 25% 41% 24% 29% 29% 40% 38% 42% 41% 48% 49% 29% 28% 34% 26% 26% 37% 48% 48% 53% 25% 24% 49% 23% 23% 51% 45% 52% 27% 39% 52%

29% 28% 12% 45% 13% 18% 18% 20% 36% 21% 34% 16% 14% 17% 27% 15% 17% 26% 24% 48% 17% 16% 6% 11% 21% 8% 22% 32% 11% 17% 20% 21% 14% 15%

8% 6% 6% 4% 7% 8% 9% 6% 7% 7% 4% 7% 5% 4% 6% 13% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 6% 18% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 7% 3% 7% 6% 9%

13% 17%

0.0% 96.6% 0.6% 83.8% 1.2% 98.8% 0.1% 0.3% 40.9% 59.1% 99.9% 0.1% 96.3% 3.7% 98.8% 1.2% 0.0% 72.4% 29.7% 70.2% 0.0% 88.5% 28.4% 71.6% 3.2% 96.8% 1.0% 99.0% 90.7% 6.9% 98.1% 1.9% 88.3% 11.7% 97.0% 2.0% 99.4% 0.4% 0.0% 6.7% 0.2% 99.8% 1.0% 99.0% 1.3% 98.7% 99.8% 0.2% 100.0% 0.0% 6.6% 93.4% 100.0% 0.0% 82.7% 0.4% 0.9% 99.1% 2.1% 97.9% 0.0% 100.0% 99.6% 0.4% 64.0% 36.0% 0.0% 100.0%

3.4% 15.2% 0.0% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.6% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 93.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.3%

Ont.

Haldimand—Norfolk Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Hamilton Centre Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Hamilton Mountain Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Hastings—Lennox and Addington Huron—Bruce Kanata—Carleton Kenora King—Vaughan Kingston and the Islands Kitchener Centre Kitchener—Conestoga Kitchener South—Hespeler Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Lanark—Frontenac Leeds—Grenville London—Fanshawe London North Centre London West Markham—Stouffville Markham—Thornhill Markham—Unionville Milton Mississauga Centre Mississauga—Cooksville Mississauga—Erin Mills Mississauga—Lakeshore Mississauga—Malton Mississauga—Streetsville Nepean Newmarket—Aurora Niagara Centre

42% 53% 17% 30% 25% 33% 48% 43% 48% 37% 44% 29% 29% 43% 40% 49% 53% 53% 27% 28% 36% 38% 26% 33% 44% 29% 31% 34% 34% 26% 33% 45% 42% 31%

35% 21% 22% 23% 25% 35% 25% 28% 34% 34% 40% 46% 43% 34% 29% 24% 25% 24% 21% 44% 36% 42% 48% 47% 35% 49% 49% 47% 49% 49% 47% 34% 37% 24%

17% 19% 57% 42% 45% 26% 21% 23% 13% 25% 10% 19% 20% 16% 24% 21% 15% 16% 47% 21% 23% 14% 20% 14% 15% 16% 15% 14% 10% 21% 13% 15% 13% 40%

6% 7% 3% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 4% 6% 6% 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 5% 7% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 8% 5%

84.4% 100.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 38.1% 100.0% 97.0% 98.3% 65.3% 67.7% 0.1% 3.0% 87.1% 91.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.1% 0.9% 47.0% 31.7% 0.1% 5.4% 87.6% 0.8% 1.6% 6.0% 3.9% 0.1% 4.8% 94.6% 71.2% 7.2%

15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 59.3% 0.0% 2.8% 1.7% 33.3% 32.3% 99.9% 97.0% 12.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.1% 52.8% 68.3% 99.9% 94.6% 12.4% 99.2% 98.4% 94.0% 96.1% 99.9% 95.2% 5.4% 28.8% 0.3%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.5% 100.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 92.6%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Niagara Falls Niagara West Nickel Belt Nipissing—Timiskaming Northumberland—Pine Ridge Oakville Oakville North—Burlington Oshawa Ottawa Centre Ottawa—Orléans Ottawa South Ottawa—Vanier Ottawa West—Nepean Oxford Parkdale—High Park Parry Sound—Muskoka Perth—Wellington Peterborough Pickering—Uxbridge Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Richmond Hill Rideau—Carleton St. Catharines St. Paul's Sarnia—Lambton Sault Ste. Marie Scarborough—Agincourt Scarborough Centre Scarborough—Guildwood Scarborough North Scarborough—Rouge Park Scarborough Southwest Simcoe—Grey Simcoe North

44% 51% 21% 29% 46% 40% 43% 38% 18% 39% 29% 24% 38% 51% 11% 46% 43% 42% 33% 57% 31% 56% 41% 26% 44% 31% 28% 27% 28% 27% 25% 25% 43% 42%

29% 24% 25% 47% 29% 41% 37% 20% 27% 46% 51% 44% 39% 19% 42% 23% 30% 30% 46% 26% 48% 28% 30% 48% 23% 31% 55% 42% 45% 39% 44% 39% 29% 31%

21% 17% 50% 18% 18% 12% 14% 35% 49% 11% 16% 26% 17% 23% 42% 21% 19% 22% 13% 13% 14% 11% 22% 19% 28% 34% 13% 26% 22% 30% 26% 29% 18% 18%

6% 7% 4% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 4% 4% 6% 5% 7% 6% 10% 7% 6% 8% 5% 7% 5% 6% 7% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6% 10% 9%

98.2% 1.8% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.4% 99.6% 0.0% 99.4% 0.6% 0.0% 44.6% 55.4% 0.0% 73.9% 26.1% 0.0% 69.0% 0.2% 30.8% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 15.5% 84.5% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.8% 0.2% 46.2% 53.8% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51.4% 48.6% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 94.9% 5.0% 0.0% 97.5% 2.5% 0.0% 6.4% 93.6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 98.2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 93.3% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 99.2% 0.1% 0.7% 19.4% 27.7% 53.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.7% 98.0% 1.3% 0.3% 99.7% 0.0% 1.1% 87.4% 11.5% 0.1% 99.0% 0.9% 0.5% 89.9% 9.7% 94.6% 5.4% 0.0% 91.6% 8.4% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Man.

Spadina—Fort York 15% Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 55% Sudbury 21% Thornhill 50% Thunder Bay—Rainy River 20% Thunder Bay—Superior North 22% Timmins—James Bay 24% Toronto Centre 13% Toronto—Danforth 10% University—Rosedale 15% Vaughan—Woodbridge 44% Waterloo 30% Wellington—Halton Hills 52% Whitby 46% Willowdale 33% Windsor—Tecumseh 27% Windsor West 25% York Centre 39% York—Simcoe 52% York South—Weston 18% York West 17% Brandon—Souris 53% Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley 41% Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 13% Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa 53% Elmwood—Transcona 31% Kildonan—St. Paul 47% Portage—Lisgar 67% Provencher 61% Saint Boniface—Saint Vital 34% Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman 55% Winnipeg Centre 12% Winnipeg North 11% Winnipeg South 35%

34% 26% 29% 35% 32% 27% 27% 48% 27% 40% 43% 49% 27% 27% 50% 22% 19% 44% 23% 42% 55% 19% 42% 34% 20% 29% 22% 20% 20% 55% 18% 35% 59% 55%

44% 15% 46% 9% 44% 46% 45% 32% 54% 39% 8% 13% 11% 19% 15% 46% 51% 12% 16% 35% 24% 16% 5% 45% 17% 30% 22% 1% 10% 1% 17% 39% 20% 0%

6% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 7% 8% 7% 5% 8% 10% 8% 3% 6% 5% 5% 8% 5% 4% 12% 11% 8% 10% 10% 9% 12% 9% 10% 10% 14% 9% 9%

0.0% 7.3% 92.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 98.8% 95.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 93.5% 0.0% 0.5% 99.5% 0.1% 0.5% 99.4% 0.0% 98.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 56.2% 43.8% 52.4% 47.6% 0.0% 0.7% 99.3% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 98.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.8% 99.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 83.8% 16.2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45.3% 54.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 94.1% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.7% 28.1% 34.3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.9% 66.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.3% 99.7% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Sask. Alb.

Winnipeg South Centre 25% Battlefords—Lloydminster 50% Cypress Hills—Grasslands 55% Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 30% Humboldt—Warman—Martensville—Rosetown 53% Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan 45% Prince Albert 47% Regina—Lewvan 32% Regina—Qu'Appelle 41% Regina—Wascana 23% Saskatoon—Grasswood 38% Saskatoon—University 37% Saskatoon West 30% Souris—Moose Mountain 58% Yorkton—Melville 54% Banff—Airdrie 56% Battle River—Crowfoot 69% Bow River 70% Calgary Centre 39% Calgary Confederation 36% Calgary Forest Lawn 48% Calgary Heritage 58% Calgary Midnapore 60% Calgary Nose Hill 53% Calgary Rocky Ridge 52% Calgary Shepard 59% Calgary Signal Hill 49% Calgary Skyview 40% Edmonton Centre 27% Edmonton Griesbach 33% Edmonton Manning 38% Edmonton Mill Woods 39% Edmonton Riverbend 39% Edmonton Strathcona 22%

61% 19% 22% 21% 20% 19% 19% 30% 27% 64% 29% 32% 26% 21% 22% 21% 16% 17% 34% 33% 33% 23% 22% 26% 28% 23% 31% 44% 44% 28% 32% 33% 35% 25%

3% 21% 13% 39% 17% 26% 25% 30% 23% 4% 24% 23% 36% 11% 15% 14% 11% 9% 16% 17% 14% 13% 12% 14% 12% 12% 11% 11% 25% 36% 27% 25% 21% 51%

10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 8% 10% 9% 8% 4% 3% 10% 14% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 6% 9% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2%

0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.1% 90.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.7% 0.0% 0.3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.8% 30.8% 28.4% 97.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 87.4% 10.2% 2.4% 74.3% 24.2% 1.5% 18.7% 7.4% 73.8% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 77.2% 22.8% 0.0% 71.1% 28.9% 0.0% 98.6% 1.4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.7% 0.3% 0.0% 29.7% 70.3% 0.0% 1.0% 98.4% 0.6% 32.3% 7.1% 60.6% 74.6% 20.7% 4.7% 79.8% 18.9% 1.4% 70.1% 29.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Alb. BC

Edmonton West Edmonton—Wetaskiwin Foothills Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Grande Prairie Lakeland Lethbridge Medicine Hat Peace River—Westlock Red Deer—Mountain View Red Deer—Wolf Creek St. Albert—Edmonton Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Sturgeon River Yellowhead Abbotsford Burnaby North—Seymour Burnaby South Cariboo—Prince George Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola Chilliwack—Hope Cloverdale—Langley City Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Courtenay—Alberni Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Delta Fleetwood—Port Kells Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo Kelowna—Lake Country Kootenay—Columbia Langley—Aldergrove Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon Nanaimo—Ladysmith New Westminster—Burnaby

44% 61% 66% 58% 62% 65% 39% 54% 64% 65% 63% 44% 49% 63% 64% 51% 25% 23% 41% 39% 44% 38% 36% 32% 33% 28% 28% 37% 42% 35% 46% 39% 30% 18%

34% 19% 17% 24% 17% 19% 23% 25% 17% 17% 17% 32% 28% 19% 16% 23% 33% 28% 19% 24% 25% 29% 25% 19% 17% 36% 33% 19% 25% 17% 26% 22% 18% 25%

19% 16% 12% 14% 17% 13% 33% 16% 15% 13% 16% 20% 17% 14% 14% 15% 31% 39% 26% 22% 19% 20% 27% 35% 37% 24% 29% 32% 17% 35% 15% 28% 38% 46%

3% 4% 5% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% 6% 4% 5% 12% 11% 11% 13% 15% 12% 12% 12% 14% 14% 12% 10% 12% 16% 13% 13% 12% 14% 11%

91.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 81.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 95.5% 99.6% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 6.4% 0.5% 99.3% 99.3% 99.9% 89.3% 87.6% 32.7% 27.5% 15.8% 19.9% 79.4% 99.7% 55.9% 99.8% 97.6% 8.9% 0.0%

8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56.9% 3.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 10.7% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 83.1% 61.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.7% 96.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 7.2% 67.3% 72.5% 1.0% 18.7% 20.6% 0.0% 44.1% 0.0% 2.2% 91.1% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

BC Terr.

North Okanagan—Shuswap 40% 21% North Vancouver 28% 47% Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge 35% 22% Port Moody—Coquitlam 27% 25% Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies 46% 19% Richmond Centre 38% 36% Saanich—Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca 27% 21% Saanich—Gulf Islands 26% 17% Skeena—Bulkley Valley 23% 17% South Okanagan—West Kootenay 30% 21% South Surrey—White Rock 34% 37% Steveston—Richmond East 34% 36% Surrey Centre 19% 35% Surrey—Newton 10% 50% Vancouver Centre 11% 44% Vancouver East 4% 22% Vancouver Granville 18% 45% Vancouver Island North—Comox—Powell River 33% 18% Vancouver Kingsway 13% 29% Vancouver Quadra 22% 56% Vancouver South 25% 48% Victoria 14% 25% West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky 26% Country 42% Yukon 26% 45% Western Artic 25% 30% Nunavut 42% 41%

22% 12% 31% 36% 22% 13% 32% 4% 50% 35% 15% 18% 36% 30% 22% 59% 21% 36% 48% 10% 17% 43% 17% 7% 38% 12%

18% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 19% 52% 10% 15% 14% 12% 11% 10% 22% 15% 17% 12% 11% 13% 10% 18% 15% 22% 7% 5%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use the federal vote intentions. ** winning=getting the most seats

99.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 99.2% 0.0% 0.0% 74.1% 1.0% 24.8% 0.0% 8.0% 3.0% 89.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 63.8% 36.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 1.2% 79.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 20.2% 0.2% 79.6% 0.0% 35.2% 64.8% 0.0% 0.0% 42.8% 57.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 43.3% 56.6% 0.0% 0.0% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.2% 0.0% 66.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 2.4% 97.6% 0.0% 0.0%

proj Canada 27.03.2015.pdf

Electoral projections for the next federal elections. Projections électorales pour la prochaine élection fédérale. March 27th 2015, based on latest Ekos and ...

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