Electoral projections for the next federal elections Projections électorales pour la prochaine élection fédérale

www.tooclosetocall.ca www.silatendancesemaintient.ca

29/06/2015 % Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Canada*

CPC 26.3 13.0 32.7 33.3 44.0 27.0 28.0

LPC 43.7 23.7 33.7 28.3 20.0 23.7 27.3

NDP 25.7 38.0 30.0 33.7 31.3 41.3 33.7

Green 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.7 3.7 7.3 4.8

Bloc 22.0 4.8

Seats/Sièges Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Territories

7 6 45 12 25 5 1

21 11 48 6 1 9 1

4 57 28 10 8 27 1

0 0 0 0 0 1 0

4 -

Canada

101

97

135

1

4

CPC 26% 19% 19% 28% 14% 9% 13% 27% 21%

LPC 48% 69% 69% 53% 70% 22% 43% 64% 54%

NDP 25% 10% 10% 16% 14% 67% 43% 6% 21%

Green 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%

Bloc

PEI

NFL

Riding/Circonscription Avalon Bonavista-Burin-Trinity Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame Labrador Long Range Mountains St. John’s East St. John’s South—Mount Pearl Cardigan Charlottetown

Probability of winning most seats (with majority below) Probabilités de gagner le plus de sièges (et d'une majorité en-dessous) CPC 1.1% 0.0%

LPC 0.6% 0.0%

NDP 98.3% 0.0%

Green 0.0% 0.0%

Bloc 0.0% 0.0%

Probability of winning the riding Probabilité de remporter la circonscription

CPC 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

LPC NDP 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 53.9% 46.1% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Green 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bloc

PEI NS NB

Egmont Malpeque Cape Breton—Canso Central Nova Cumberland—Colchester Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Halifax Halifax West Kings—Hants Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook South Shore—St. Margarets Sydney—Victoria West Nova Acadie—Bathurst Beauséjour Fredericton Fundy Royal Madawaska—Restigouche Miramichi—Grand Lake Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe New Brunswick Southwest Saint John—Rothesay Tobique—Mactaquac Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Abitibi—Témiscamingue Ahuntsic-Cartierville Alfred-Pellan Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia Beauce Beauport—Limoilou Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Beloeil—Chambly

43% 28% 21% 44% 42% 13% 6% 19% 25% 19% 30% 26% 35% 5% 20% 36% 46% 30% 42% 25% 46% 38% 51% 18% 6% 6% 8% 11% 9% 46% 20% 9% 39% 5%

46% 57% 58% 28% 33% 49% 40% 52% 54% 26% 32% 54% 51% 29% 55% 39% 25% 51% 36% 45% 28% 31% 31% 21% 16% 38% 31% 24% 32% 22% 18% 20% 17% 20%

9% 11% 16% 23% 19% 33% 48% 25% 16% 50% 32% 15% 9% 65% 20% 21% 23% 16% 19% 25% 20% 27% 15% 40% 46% 26% 37% 40% 22% 25% 41% 30% 28% 43%

3% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 1% 5% 5% 6% 3% 3% 5% 6% 4% 3% 5% 2% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3%

17% 30% 28% 21% 22% 33% 5% 19% 37% 13% 29%

35.7% 0.0% 0.0% 98.5% 89.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.0% 99.9% 0.1% 79.5% 0.2% 99.4% 86.5% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 94.5% 0.0%

64.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 10.7% 0.0% 99.0% 1.0% 14.3% 85.7% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 40.3% 37.4% 100.0% 0.0% 98.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 66.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 20.5% 0.0% 99.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 11.3% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 99.2% 94.3% 2.4% 17.9% 82.0% 0.7% 99.2% 45.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 16.0% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 98.2%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.8% 3.4% 0.1% 0.2% 54.3% 0.0% 0.0% 84.0% 0.0% 1.8%

QC

Berthier—Maskinongé Blainville Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Bourassa Brome—Missisquoi Brossard—Saint-Lambert Centre-du-Bas-Saint-Laurent Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Charlevoix—Montmorency Châteauguay—Lacolle Chicoutimi Compton—Stanstead Dorval—Lachine Drummond Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Gatineau Hochelaga Honoré-Mercier Hull—Aylmer Joliette Jonquière La Pointe-de-l'Île La Prairie Lac-Saint-Jean Lac-Saint-Louis LaSalle—Verdun Laurentides—Labelle Laurier—Sainte-Marie Laval—Les Îles LeMoyne Lévis—Lotbinière Longueuil Louis-Hébert Louis-Saint-Laurent

9% 6% 5% 6% 8% 9% 10% 25% 19% 9% 21% 8% 11% 12% 15% 4% 5% 11% 6% 6% 29% 5% 6% 38% 26% 7% 6% 2% 13% 7% 35% 5% 16% 32%

22% 19% 19% 45% 32% 41% 19% 18% 15% 19% 17% 22% 37% 18% 26% 24% 19% 40% 30% 15% 14% 17% 22% 14% 41% 26% 22% 18% 30% 22% 16% 19% 25% 18%

36% 45% 40% 28% 38% 32% 39% 40% 34% 44% 33% 42% 37% 46% 24% 56% 44% 32% 53% 42% 37% 44% 45% 26% 26% 41% 39% 43% 43% 41% 33% 45% 34% 35%

3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 5% 2% 3% 2% 2% 5% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%

30% 26% 33% 18% 20% 15% 29% 15% 30% 25% 27% 25% 11% 21% 32% 13% 30% 15% 7% 31% 18% 31% 24% 19% 2% 22% 30% 34% 12% 27% 13% 27% 23% 13%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 96.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 62.1% 0.0% 0.2% 32.6%

0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 99.6% 18.3% 92.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 52.8% 0.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 93.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0%

86.2% 99.9% 87.1% 0.4% 81.7% 7.5% 93.5% 99.0% 73.8% 99.9% 79.9% 99.7% 47.2% 100.0% 7.8% 100.0% 98.9% 7.0% 100.0% 95.0% 90.3% 98.0% 99.9% 3.9% 0.4% 99.2% 92.2% 93.1% 97.3% 98.5% 37.9% 99.8% 91.6% 67.4%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

13.5% 0.1% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 26.1% 0.0% 18.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 75.9% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 6.9% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 2.0% 0.0%

Manicouagan 7% Mégantic—L'Érable 44% Mirabel 6% Montarville 6% Montcalm 5% Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup 32% Mont-Royal 33% Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount 15% Outremont 5% Papineau 3% Pierrefonds—Dollard 24% Pontiac 22% Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier 0% Québec 12% Repentigny 4% Richmond—Arthabaska 21% Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 7% Rivière-du-Nord 5% Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 2% Sainte-Rose 7% Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot 12% Saint-Jean 7% Saint-Laurent 16% Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel 11% Saint-Maurice—Champlain 13% Salaberry—Suroît 9% Shefford 11% Sherbrooke 5% Soulanges—Vaudreuil 14% Terrebonne 5% Trois-Rivières 9% Ville-Marie 9% Vimy 10% Ajax 28%

17% 17% 17% 22% 14% 15% 48% 45% 29% 45% 37% 25% 23% 20% 17% 17% 20% 15% 16% 23% 14% 18% 50% 49% 21% 17% 19% 19% 21% 16% 20% 35% 29% 50%

42% 21% 45% 40% 47% 32% 14% 31% 52% 26% 30% 42% 49% 38% 47% 27% 44% 50% 48% 44% 47% 43% 25% 28% 36% 39% 46% 39% 39% 47% 45% 37% 38% 21%

3% 2% 3% 3% 5% 2% 3% 6% 3% 3% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 2%

31% 15% 30% 28% 30% 19% 2% 3% 11% 24% 4% 8% 24% 26% 29% 32% 26% 27% 32% 23% 23% 29% 5% 9% 27% 32% 22% 34% 22% 29% 23% 15% 20%

0.0% 0.0% 95.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.0% 0.0% 0.1% 97.3% 0.0% 0.0% 99.4% 49.7% 0.0% 50.3% 0.4% 99.6% 0.0% 0.0% 98.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.2% 91.3% 8.5% 0.1% 0.6% 99.4% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.2% 96.2% 0.0% 0.0% 99.8% 0.9% 0.1% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 99.3% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 93.5% 0.0% 0.0% 85.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 77.7% 0.0% 0.1% 99.6% 0.0% 0.0% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 38.6% 61.4% 0.0% 9.2% 90.6% 0.3% 99.7% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

4.1% 0.0% 1.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.6% 0.2% 78.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 15.0% 0.0% 22.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Barrie—Innisfil Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Bay of Quinte Beaches—East York Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Brant Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Burlington Cambridge Chatham-Kent—Leamington Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Dufferin—Caledon Durham Eglinton—Lawrence Elgin—Middlesex—London Essex Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke—Lakeshore Etobicoke North Flamborough—Glanbrook Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Guelph Haldimand—Norfolk Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Hamilton Centre

18% 36% 46% 40% 41% 9% 31% 15% 33% 30% 26% 36% 41% 41% 39% 39% 2% 23% 25% 29% 44% 45% 33% 45% 34% 28% 26% 20% 43% 38% 21% 37% 49% 12%

25% 40% 24% 29% 28% 40% 37% 41% 40% 47% 48% 28% 27% 33% 25% 25% 37% 47% 47% 52% 25% 23% 48% 23% 23% 51% 45% 52% 26% 38% 53% 35% 20% 22%

55% 22% 26% 26% 27% 47% 29% 43% 24% 22% 25% 34% 23% 23% 33% 32% 59% 28% 27% 17% 19% 28% 17% 30% 40% 20% 26% 29% 28% 21% 21% 25% 26% 66%

2% 3% 4% 5% 3% 4% 4% 1% 3% 2% 1% 3% 8% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 0% 3% 12% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 0% 3% 3% 5% 3% 4% 0%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 29.1% 70.7% 0.2% 99.6% 0.2% 0.2% 90.7% 7.3% 2.0% 96.0% 2.4% 1.6% 0.0% 16.6% 83.4% 18.9% 73.8% 7.3% 0.0% 43.5% 56.5% 19.7% 79.9% 0.4% 1.3% 98.6% 0.0% 0.2% 99.7% 0.1% 56.8% 7.5% 35.7% 95.5% 4.1% 0.4% 84.1% 15.7% 0.3% 82.9% 1.1% 15.9% 82.7% 1.1% 16.2% 0.0% 0.3% 99.7% 0.1% 99.7% 0.3% 0.1% 99.8% 0.1% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 99.3% 0.7% 0.0% 99.2% 0.0% 0.8% 1.8% 98.2% 0.0% 98.1% 0.0% 1.9% 20.4% 0.2% 79.4% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.4% 99.3% 0.3% 0.0% 99.8% 0.2% 98.1% 0.8% 1.1% 46.4% 53.6% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 64.4% 34.0% 1.6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Ont.

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Hamilton Mountain Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Hastings—Lennox and Addington Huron—Bruce Kanata—Carleton Kenora King—Vaughan Kingston and the Islands Kitchener Centre Kitchener—Conestoga Kitchener South—Hespeler Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Lanark—Frontenac Leeds—Grenville London—Fanshawe London North Centre London West Markham—Stouffville Markham—Thornhill Markham—Unionville Milton Mississauga Centre Mississauga—Cooksville Mississauga—Erin Mills Mississauga—Lakeshore Mississauga—Malton Mississauga—Streetsville Nepean Newmarket—Aurora Niagara Centre Niagara Falls Niagara West Nickel Belt

26% 21% 30% 44% 39% 43% 31% 41% 25% 27% 41% 38% 44% 50% 50% 22% 23% 31% 35% 22% 30% 42% 26% 28% 31% 31% 21% 30% 40% 39% 27% 41% 48% 13%

22% 24% 34% 25% 28% 34% 33% 39% 46% 43% 33% 29% 23% 24% 23% 21% 44% 36% 41% 48% 46% 34% 49% 48% 46% 49% 49% 47% 34% 36% 23% 28% 24% 24%

50% 53% 33% 28% 31% 20% 34% 17% 26% 27% 23% 30% 29% 23% 23% 55% 30% 31% 23% 29% 22% 21% 24% 23% 21% 18% 29% 20% 23% 22% 48% 28% 24% 60%

2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% 2% 3% 4% 2%

0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 99.4% 83.5% 91.0% 22.4% 61.4% 0.0% 1.2% 84.7% 79.6% 97.9% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.2% 19.0% 21.3% 0.0% 2.1% 84.1% 0.1% 0.6% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.9% 80.4% 62.1% 0.1% 93.6% 100.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 50.7% 0.1% 5.8% 9.0% 36.6% 38.6% 99.9% 97.9% 15.3% 8.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97.8% 65.1% 78.5% 99.6% 97.9% 15.8% 99.8% 99.4% 97.5% 98.5% 99.8% 98.1% 19.6% 37.8% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%

100.0% 100.0% 35.6% 0.5% 10.7% 0.0% 40.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 11.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.0% 15.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 2.5% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Nipissing—Timiskaming Northumberland—Pine Ridge Oakville Oakville North—Burlington Oshawa Ottawa Centre Ottawa—Orléans Ottawa South Ottawa—Vanier Ottawa West—Nepean Oxford Parkdale—High Park Parry Sound—Muskoka Perth—Wellington Peterborough Pickering—Uxbridge Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Richmond Hill Rideau—Carleton St. Catharines St. Paul's Sarnia—Lambton Sault Ste. Marie Scarborough—Agincourt Scarborough Centre Scarborough—Guildwood Scarborough North Scarborough—Rouge Park Scarborough Southwest Simcoe—Grey Simcoe North Spadina—Fort York Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Sudbury

22% 43% 38% 41% 35% 12% 34% 24% 18% 33% 46% 3% 40% 40% 39% 30% 52% 27% 51% 38% 20% 39% 24% 21% 20% 22% 20% 18% 18% 39% 39% 8% 51% 14%

47% 29% 41% 37% 19% 27% 45% 51% 44% 39% 19% 42% 23% 30% 29% 45% 25% 47% 28% 30% 49% 23% 31% 54% 42% 45% 38% 43% 38% 28% 31% 33% 25% 28%

26% 25% 18% 20% 43% 57% 19% 23% 33% 25% 31% 53% 30% 27% 29% 21% 22% 23% 18% 29% 28% 36% 43% 24% 37% 32% 41% 37% 41% 27% 26% 55% 22% 56%

5% 4% 3% 2% 3% 4% 2% 2% 4% 3% 4% 2% 7% 4% 3% 4% 1% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 5% 5% 3% 1% 2%

0.0% 99.7% 0.2% 97.8% 1.9% 0.3% 35.7% 64.3% 0.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 84.7% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 95.1% 4.9% 21.3% 78.0% 0.6% 97.9% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 8.7% 91.3% 90.1% 0.8% 9.1% 87.1% 9.8% 3.1% 87.4% 5.6% 7.0% 2.9% 97.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 99.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 82.6% 11.6% 5.7% 0.0% 99.8% 0.2% 68.0% 0.5% 31.6% 0.5% 5.3% 94.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75.9% 24.0% 0.0% 95.8% 4.2% 0.0% 33.5% 66.5% 0.0% 83.2% 16.8% 0.0% 37.7% 62.3% 85.1% 10.0% 5.0% 82.5% 15.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.3% 99.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Man.

Thornhill 48% Thunder Bay—Rainy River 12% Thunder Bay—Superior North 15% Timmins—James Bay 17% Toronto Centre 4% Toronto—Danforth 1% University—Rosedale 7% Vaughan—Woodbridge 41% Waterloo 28% Wellington—Halton Hills 51% Whitby 43% Willowdale 26% Windsor—Tecumseh 21% Windsor West 19% York Centre 34% York—Simcoe 49% York South—Weston 12% York West 10% Brandon—Souris 41% Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley 32% Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 3% Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa 41% Elmwood—Transcona 22% Kildonan—St. Paul 36% Portage—Lisgar 53% Provencher 48% Saint Boniface—Saint Vital 25% Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman 43% Winnipeg Centre 1% Winnipeg North 1% Winnipeg South 26% Winnipeg South Centre 16% Battlefords—Lloydminster 41% Cypress Hills—Grasslands 46%

34% 32% 27% 26% 49% 27% 40% 42% 49% 26% 26% 49% 22% 19% 43% 23% 41% 56% 23% 38% 36% 23% 25% 25% 24% 24% 51% 22% 31% 55% 51% 56% 23% 25%

17% 54% 56% 55% 43% 67% 49% 16% 20% 18% 27% 25% 55% 59% 21% 24% 45% 33% 30% 25% 58% 31% 50% 36% 17% 25% 21% 31% 60% 42% 20% 24% 33% 26%

2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 5% 4% 1% 4% 5% 4% 0% 2% 2% 2% 4% 2% 1% 6% 4% 3% 5% 4% 3% 6% 3% 3% 4% 8% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3%

95.4% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 79.9% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 10.8% 89.2% 44.1% 55.9% 0.0% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97.2% 1.3% 1.5% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 32.0% 68.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 94.0% 0.2% 5.8% 21.2% 77.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% 99.6% 94.7% 0.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 52.6% 1.1% 46.3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 96.6% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 94.1% 5.9% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 92.0% 0.2% 7.8% 99.8% 0.1% 0.1%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Sask. Alb.

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 23% Humboldt—Warman—Martensville—Rosetown 44% Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan 37% Prince Albert 38% Regina—Lewvan 19% Regina—Qu'Appelle 30% Regina—Wascana 11% Saskatoon—Grasswood 27% Saskatoon—University 25% Saskatoon West 18% Souris—Moose Mountain 48% Yorkton—Melville 44% Banff—Airdrie 52% Battle River—Crowfoot 63% Bow River 63% Calgary Centre 36% Calgary Confederation 33% Calgary Forest Lawn 44% Calgary Heritage 53% Calgary Midnapore 54% Calgary Nose Hill 48% Calgary Rocky Ridge 48% Calgary Shepard 54% Calgary Signal Hill 45% Calgary Skyview 37% Edmonton Centre 20% Edmonton Griesbach 26% Edmonton Manning 31% Edmonton Mill Woods 32% Edmonton Riverbend 33% Edmonton Strathcona 13% Edmonton West 37% Edmonton—Wetaskiwin 56% Foothills 60%

25% 24% 23% 23% 25% 21% 59% 24% 26% 20% 25% 26% 17% 12% 13% 28% 27% 27% 17% 16% 20% 22% 17% 24% 37% 35% 19% 22% 24% 26% 13% 24% 15% 13%

50% 29% 37% 36% 53% 45% 27% 46% 45% 59% 24% 27% 25% 23% 21% 28% 28% 26% 26% 25% 26% 25% 25% 24% 23% 43% 54% 46% 43% 39% 73% 37% 26% 24%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 6% 3% 2% 8% 12% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 7% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 0% 2% 3% 3%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.7% 0.2% 1.1% 50.2% 0.4% 49.4% 64.0% 0.4% 35.7% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.6% 0.0% 97.4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 99.5% 0.7% 0.5% 98.8% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.4% 0.5% 0.2% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 85.2% 8.0% 6.7% 74.1% 9.3% 16.6% 99.5% 0.3% 0.2% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 49.7% 50.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.3% 87.7% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.7% 0.0% 97.3% 9.2% 0.0% 90.7% 21.0% 1.8% 77.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 51.1% 0.4% 48.5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

BC

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Grande Prairie Lakeland Lethbridge Medicine Hat Peace River—Westlock Red Deer—Mountain View Red Deer—Wolf Creek St. Albert—Edmonton Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Sturgeon River Yellowhead Abbotsford Burnaby North—Seymour Burnaby South Cariboo—Prince George Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola Chilliwack—Hope Cloverdale—Langley City Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Courtenay—Alberni Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Delta Fleetwood—Port Kells Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo Kelowna—Lake Country Kootenay—Columbia Langley—Aldergrove Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon Nanaimo—Ladysmith New Westminster—Burnaby North Okanagan—Shuswap North Vancouver Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

53% 57% 59% 37% 50% 59% 59% 58% 37% 44% 58% 59% 46% 19% 18% 37% 35% 39% 32% 31% 22% 24% 23% 23% 33% 38% 31% 40% 35% 21% 13% 35% 22% 30%

20% 13% 14% 18% 20% 13% 13% 13% 23% 21% 15% 12% 19% 29% 25% 15% 20% 21% 26% 22% 18% 17% 32% 29% 15% 21% 13% 23% 18% 18% 22% 17% 43% 18%

25% 28% 24% 41% 27% 26% 24% 26% 38% 31% 25% 25% 31% 48% 53% 42% 37% 35% 38% 44% 53% 52% 40% 46% 47% 32% 50% 33% 43% 54% 61% 37% 29% 47%

2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 2% 4% 3% 4% 5% 4% 3% 6% 8% 5% 4% 4% 7% 7% 5% 2% 5% 9% 6% 5% 4% 7% 4% 11% 5% 5%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 24.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 48.1% 98.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 37.0% 53.0% 86.7% 29.6% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 3.6% 90.1% 0.9% 91.4% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 54.3% 0.2% 1.6%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98.2% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 99.1% 100.0% 63.0% 47.0% 13.3% 68.1% 93.8% 100.0% 100.0% 85.1% 98.2% 96.4% 9.9% 99.1% 8.3% 80.5% 100.0% 100.0% 45.6% 1.7% 98.4%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

BC Terr.

Port Moody—Coquitlam 21% 22% Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies 42% 15% Richmond Centre 32% 32% Saanich—Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca 18% 21% Saanich—Gulf Islands 16% 16% Skeena—Bulkley Valley 20% 13% South Okanagan—West Kootenay 26% 17% South Surrey—White Rock 28% 33% Steveston—Richmond East 29% 32% Surrey Centre 15% 32% Surrey—Newton 6% 48% Vancouver Centre 7% 42% Vancouver East 0% 22% Vancouver Granville 12% 43% Vancouver Island North—Comox—Powell River 23% 18% Vancouver Kingsway 9% 28% Vancouver Quadra 17% 53% Vancouver South 20% 46% Victoria 2% 22% West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky 21% Country 38% Yukon 22% 41% Western Artic 20% 27% Nunavut 38% 37%

53% 37% 31% 47% 22% 64% 50% 33% 35% 50% 44% 37% 71% 36% 54% 59% 25% 32% 51% 34% 17% 49% 22%

4% 6% 5% 13% 45% 3% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 15% 8% 9% 5% 3% 5% 2% 25% 8% 20% 4% 3%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use the federal vote intentions. ** winning=getting the most seats

0.0% 87.2% 46.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%

0.0% 0.0% 34.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51.6% 31.0% 0.9% 71.8% 79.4% 0.0% 87.7% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.3% 0.0% 73.7%

100.0% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 32.2% 0.0% 54.7% 0.0% 99.1% 0.0% 28.2% 0.0% 20.6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 26.0% 0.0%