7 avril 2014. Basé sur les sondages Forum, Ipsos, Ekos, Léger et Angus-Reid

www.silatendancesemaintient.ca www.tooclosetocall.ca

PLQ 40.2 72 99.1%

PQ 27.4 40 0.9%

CAQ 23.3 11 0.0%

QS 7.4 2 0.0%

ON 0.7 0 0.0%

Vert 0.5 0 0.0%

Ind

PLQ Abitibi-Est 44.0% Abitibi-Ouest 27.0% Acadie 63.8% Anjou-Louis-Riel 48.3% Argenteuil 39.5% Arthabaska 39.4% Beauce-Nord 33.9% Beauce-Sud 50.2% Beauharnois 30.8% Bellechasse 48.4% Berthier 23.7% Bertrand 28.6% Blainville 27.1% Bonaventure 41.8% Borduas 27.7% Bourassa-Sauvé 50.2% Bourget 27.8% Brome-Missisquoi 44.4% Chambly 26.4% Champlain 31.0% Chapleau 50.8% Charlesbourg 42.8% Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré 35.1% Châteauguay 48.7% Chauveau 32.9% Chicoutimi 31.0%

PQ 34.1% 46.7% 12.7% 26.0% 34.1% 15.7% 5.9% 7.1% 41.4% 10.9% 42.6% 37.6% 31.6% 42.9% 35.2% 22.2% 41.1% 21.5% 35.9% 32.5% 21.7% 17.1% 36.4% 27.5% 12.2% 40.4%

CAQ 15.3% 17.0% 14.1% 16.9% 21.2% 39.2% 57.0% 38.9% 21.5% 36.7% 27.1% 26.9% 36.4% 9.2% 29.6% 14.6% 18.3% 28.4% 29.7% 29.6% 19.9% 34.7% 24.1% 19.5% 50.7% 22.0%

QS 5.7% 6.3% 8.9% 8.9% 3.6% 5.0% 3.3% 3.5% 5.0% 4.1% 5.8% 6.4% 4.9% 6.1% 6.8% 11.8% 11.1% 5.7% 6.0% 5.2% 5.8% 4.8% 4.0% 4.3% 3.9% 5.9%

ON 0.8% 3.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Vert

Ind

% sièges Chances de gagner*

0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7%

0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.7%

1.1% 0.8%

1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.7%

0 Probabilités de remporter la circonscription (basées sur 5000 simulations) PLQ PQ CAQ QS ON Vert 93% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 77% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 0% 6% 91% 3% 0% 0% 7% 24% 69% 0% 42% 58% 0% 0% 0% 9% 75% 16% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 5% 81% 15% 0% 0% 0% 30% 51% 19% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 94% 0% 6% 0% 0% 45% 55% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 99% 0% 0% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0%

Ind

Chomedey Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Côte-du-Sud Crémazie D'Arcy-McGee Deux-Montagnes Drummond-Bois-Francs Dubuc Duplessis Fabre Gaspé Gatineau Gouin Granby Groulx Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Hull Huntingdon Iberville Îles-de-la-Madeleine Jacques-Cartier Jean-Lesage Jeanne-Mance-Viger Jean-Talon Johnson Joliette Jonquière Labelle Lac-Saint-Jean LaFontaine La Peltrie La Pinière Laporte La Prairie

66.9% 30.8% 46.3% 36.9% 91.4% 29.4% 31.6% 36.4% 35.3% 48.0% 35.1% 55.8% 20.1% 26.4% 31.1% 19.9% 50.0% 51.0% 30.3% 45.2% 80.9% 39.0% 73.3% 45.3% 28.6% 24.8% 29.0% 28.2% 25.3% 67.5% 36.2% 47.1% 47.1% 38.3%

12.2% 12.6% 21.4% 33.5% 0.0% 34.6% 26.9% 38.2% 49.5% 23.7% 52.1% 23.2% 27.3% 18.6% 29.8% 40.6% 28.2% 22.7% 34.8% 46.2% 0.0% 24.6% 8.4% 23.5% 31.9% 43.2% 44.6% 46.4% 49.0% 11.7% 10.3% 0.0% 26.9% 28.5%

15.1% 51.8% 27.7% 14.2% 4.0% 30.2% 34.7% 20.6% 8.5% 23.7% 7.5% 15.5% 5.2% 48.3% 33.0% 9.9% 12.8% 21.6% 29.1% 2.9% 11.5% 24.8% 11.6% 21.4% 33.0% 25.0% 22.2% 18.7% 21.0% 13.6% 49.7% 20.4% 18.8% 28.5%

4.5% 4.8% 4.3% 13.1% 4.6% 5.1% 5.4% 4.8% 5.4% 4.6% 4.7% 5.4% 47.4% 6.7% 5.3% 25.6% 9.0% 4.7% 5.1% 5.7% 3.5% 8.9% 6.6% 7.2% 5.6% 6.7% 4.2% 6.8% 4.8% 5.9% 3.4% 5.4% 6.9% 4.5%

0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0%

1.3%

1.0% 0.0%

1.2%

4.0% 2.8% 0.0% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%

1.3% 27% 0.0%

100% 0% 100% 67% 100% 14% 25% 42% 2% 100% 0% 100% 0% 0% 31% 0% 100% 100% 16% 42% 100% 99% 100% 100% 10% 0% 1% 0% 0% 100% 5% 99% 100% 86%

0% 0% 0% 33% 0% 68% 5% 58% 98% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 19% 99% 0% 0% 72% 58% 0% 1% 0% 0% 36% 99% 99% 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%

0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 18% 71% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 51% 0% 0% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 54% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 95% 0% 0% 9%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0%

0% 0%

0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 1% 0%

L'Assomption Laurier-Dorion Laval-des-Rapides Laviolette Lévis Lotbinière-Frontenac Louis-Hébert Marguerite-Bourgeoys Marie-Victorin Marquette Maskinongé Masson Matane-Matapédia Mégantic Mercier Mille-Îles Mirabel Montarville Montmorency Mont-Royal Nelligan Nicolet-Bécancour Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Orford Outremont Papineau Pointe-aux-Trembles Pontiac Portneuf René-Lévesque Repentigny Richelieu Richmond Rimouski

18.4% 42.6% 42.0% 52.0% 38.8% 49.7% 47.0% 65.3% 27.6% 57.7% 41.7% 22.2% 26.3% 43.4% 23.0% 47.1% 23.6% 35.1% 42.1% 75.5% 74.5% 33.4% 71.1% 45.7% 50.6% 44.1% 23.9% 67.2% 42.6% 26.5% 25.5% 27.9% 43.8% 30.2%

34.9% 21.6% 34.0% 26.4% 15.9% 16.4% 17.3% 15.3% 43.1% 17.0% 25.8% 41.8% 54.9% 26.9% 18.7% 27.4% 39.4% 27.3% 16.7% 4.6% 4.5% 28.8% 3.8% 26.3% 18.9% 30.4% 45.9% 11.9% 14.1% 55.0% 36.1% 38.4% 30.6% 44.5%

41.7% 7.0% 17.6% 16.0% 38.4% 28.6% 30.6% 14.1% 17.2% 16.3% 26.8% 31.1% 14.1% 22.9% 8.2% 19.2% 31.2% 31.4% 36.3% 10.1% 15.1% 28.2% 10.3% 21.5% 10.8% 18.9% 21.7% 14.8% 38.9% 12.7% 32.3% 27.6% 18.9% 15.4%

4.5% 26.2% 5.2% 4.8% 6.3% 5.2% 4.4% 5.1% 9.2% 6.2% 4.7% 4.2% 4.6% 6.4% 48.8% 5.7% 4.8% 5.4% 4.3% 7.9% 3.3% 5.9% 9.5% 6.4% 19.2% 6.3% 7.6% 6.2% 3.9% 4.8% 5.1% 4.1% 5.1% 8.3%

0.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 3.6%

1.0% 0.9%

0.0% 1.5% 2.7%

0.6%

0.0% 1.9% 2.5% 5.3%

0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 1.9% 0.6% 1.5%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 1.1%

0% 100% 88% 100% 52% 100% 100% 100% 1% 100% 98% 0% 0% 100% 0% 100% 1% 63% 89% 100% 100% 62% 100% 100% 100% 99% 0% 100% 80% 0% 2% 4% 98% 1%

19% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 99% 0% 1% 95% 100% 0% 0% 0% 91% 5% 0% 0% 0% 22% 0% 0% 0% 1% 100% 0% 0% 100% 71% 92% 2% 99%

81% 0% 0% 0% 48% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 32% 11% 0% 0% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 26% 3% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0%

0% 0% 0%

0%

0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0%

0% 0%

Rivière-du-Loup-Témiscouata 49.1% Robert-Baldwin 83.4% Roberval 51.5% Rosemont 28.7% Rousseau 22.5% Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue 35.6% Saint-François 44.4% Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne 46.9% Saint-Hyacinthe 34.0% Saint-Jean 29.9% Saint-Jérôme 23.5% Saint-Laurent 83.7% Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques27.8% Saint-Maurice 36.5% Sainte-Rose 38.1% Sanguinet 30.3% Sherbrooke 43.3% Soulanges 59.0% Taillon 30.2% Taschereau 33.9% Terrebonne 24.4% Trois-Rivières 44.1% Ungava 42.9% Vachon 32.3% Vanier-Les Rivières 44.2% Vaudreuil 54.8% Verchères 23.7% Verdun 44.2% Viau 55.3% Vimont 47.4% Westmount-Saint-Louis 84.6%

30.2% 0.9% 34.6% 38.9% 37.4% 32.5% 31.9% 27.6% 32.2% 36.6% 33.4% 7.8% 31.0% 31.7% 30.5% 36.9% 37.7% 34.8% 36.4% 33.1% 40.4% 27.7% 40.9% 35.6% 14.7% 16.3% 43.1% 29.5% 18.6% 26.3% 3.3%

16.8% 9.7% 8.6% 14.6% 34.0% 20.6% 15.2% 12.1% 27.2% 27.8% 34.8% 12.1% 25.3% 25.4% 28.3% 9.0% 23.7% 14.1% 31.0% 19.8% 7.8% 25.4% 36.0% 21.0% 27.1% 15.7% 9.6% 20.6%

*gagner l'élection=remporter le plus de sièges Luttes serrées en gris (victoires par moins de 5 pts)

4.0% 3.9% 4.9% 16.2% 6.0% 10.7% 6.0% 12.3% 6.0% 5.2% 8.2% 6.8% 27.3% 5.8% 5.3% 4.5% 7.8% 6.0% 8.5% 12.6% 4.2% 6.0% 7.0% 6.1% 4.1% 5.8% 5.0% 8.3% 13.1% 5.0% 8.2%

0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 1.2% 6.3% 0.0% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 1.7% 0.8%

2.2% 0.0%

1.5% 0.0%

1.7% 0.0%

0.6%

2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 0.0% 3.9%

100% 100% 97% 4% 0% 61% 97% 100% 59% 15% 2% 100% 20% 74% 88% 14% 79% 100% 14% 64% 0% 99% 60% 22% 94% 100% 0% 99% 100% 100% 100%

0% 0% 3% 96% 73% 39% 3% 0% 32% 81% 42% 0% 66% 25% 11% 81% 21% 0% 84% 36% 93% 1% 40% 76% 0% 0% 100% 1% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 0% 0% 0% 9% 5% 56% 0% 0% 1% 2% 5% 0% 0% 2% 0% 6% 0% 0% 2% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0% 0%

0% 0%

0% 0%

0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0%