Robust Confidence Regions for Incomplete Models, Supplementary Material: Implementation Larry G. Epstein

Hiroaki Kaido

Kyoungwon Seo

January 4, 2016 Abstract We provide details on how to implement the inference method proposed in the main text.

1. Implementation Construction of our confidence region requires computing the belief function ν θ and the critical value cθ . For simple examples, one may compute ν θ analytically. In general, it can be computed using a simulation procedure. Once ν θ is obtained, the critical value cθ can be computed using another simulation procedure, as demonstrated by the Monte Carlo experiments in Section 5 in the main text. Below, we illustrate the simulation procedures using the entry game example studied by Bresnahan and Reiss (1990,1991), Berry (1992), and Ciliberto and Tamer (2009); the latter is CT henceforth. Suppose there are K firms that are potential entrants into markets i = 1, 2, · · · . For each i, we let si = (si1 , · · · , siK ) ∈ {0, 1}K denote the vector of entry decisions made by the firms. For firm k in market i, CT consider the following profit function specification: ! X X 0 0 π k (si , xi , ui ; θ) = vi0 αk + zik β k + wik γk + δ kj sij + zij0k j sij + uik sik , j6=k

j6=k

where vi is a vector of market characteristics, zi = (zi1 , · · · , ziK ) is a matrix of firm characteristics that enter the profits of all firms in the market, while

wi = (wi1 , · · · , wiK ) is a matrix of firm characteristics such that wik enters firm k’s profit but not other firms’ profits. We let xi collect vi , zi , and wi and stack them as a vector. The unobservable payoff shifters ui = (ui1 , · · · , uiK ) follow a multivariate normal distribution N (0, Σ) and vary across markets in an i.i.d. way.1 The structural parameter θ includes Σ and the parameters associated with the profit functions: {β k , γ k , {δ kj , φkj }j6=k }K k=1 . In this example, firm k’s profit from not entering the market is 0. Hence, the set of pure-strategy Nash equilibria is given by G(ui |θ, xi ) = {si ∈ S : π k (si , xi , ui ; θ) ≥ 0, ∀k = 1, · · · , K}.

(1.1)

Suppose that a sample {(si , xi ), i = 1, · · · , n} of size n is available. Let A be a subset of S = {0, 1}K . CT only use singleton events A = {s}, s ∈ S and provide a simulation procedure to calculate ν θ (A|x) and its conjugate (called H1 and H2 in their paper). In general, one can use any event A ⊂ S for inference, and we describe a simulation procedure for this general setting below. Recall that the belief function of event A conditional on x was given by ν θ (A|x) = mθ ({u ∈ U : G(u|θ, x) ⊂ A}).

(1.2)

Hence, a natural way to approximate ν θ (A|x) for any A ⊂ S is to simulate u from the parametric distribution mθ and calculate the frequency of the event G(u|θ, x) ⊂ A. We summarize the procedure below. Simulation procedure 1 Step 1 Fix the number of draws R. Given Σ, draw random vectors ur = (ur1 , · · · , urK ), r = 1, · · · , R, from N (0, Σ). Step 2 For each (s, x, ur ) ∈ S × X × U , calculate ( 1 π k (s, x, ur ; θ) ≥ 0, ∀k, I(s, x, ur ; θ) = 0 otherwise. That is, I(s, x, ur ) = 1 if s is a pure strategy Nash equilibrium under (x, ur ) and θ. 1

In the context of entry games played by airlines, CT model uik as a sum of independent normal random variables: firm-specific unobserved heterogeneity, market-specific unobserved heterogeneity, and airport-specific unobserved heterogeneity. This can also be handled by relaxing the i.i.d. assumption on m∞ θ .

2

Step 3 Compute the frequency of event G(ur |θ, x) ⊆ A across simulation draws by computing that of Ac ⊆ Gc (ur |θ, x): νR θ (A|x)

R 1XY = (1 − I(s, x, ur ; θ)). R r=1 s∈Ac

(1.3)

After implementing the simulation procedure above, one can evaluate the test statistic: ( ) ∞ ∞ (A | x) − Ψ (s , x ) (A | x) νR j n j θ p Tn (θ) = max , (1.4) (x,j)∈X×{1,...,J} varθR (Aj | x) /n R where varθR (Aj | x) = ν R θ (Aj | x) (1 − ν θ (Aj | x)). The remaining task is to compute the critical value cθ , which can be done by feeding Λθ into a commonly-used simulator for multivariate normal random vectors.

Simulation procedure 2 Step 1 Compute the covariance matrix Λθ , which is a |X| J-by-|X| J block-diagonal matrix where Λθ,x1 , ..., Λθ,x|X| are the blocks.: The (j, j 0 )-th entry of each block Λθ,x is the covariance matrix, conditional on x: (Λθ,x )jj 0 = covθ (Aj , Aj 0 | x), where covθ (Aj , Aj 0 | x) is calculated as R R covθ (Ai , Aj | x) = ν R θ (Ai ∩ Aj | x) − ν θ (Ai | x) ν θ (Aj | x) .

(1.5)

Step 2 Decompose Λθ as LDL0 for a lower triangular matrix L and a diagonal matrix D. i.i.d.

Step 3 Generate wr ∼ N (0, I|X|J ) for r = 1, · · · , R. Generate z r = LD1/2 wr , r = 1, · · · , R. Step 4 Calculate cθ as the 1 − α quantile of maxk=1,··· ,|X|J zk /σ θ,k : ! R 1X I( max z r /σ θ,k ≤ c) ≥ 1 − α . cθ = min c ≥ 0 : R r=1 k=1,··· ,|X|J k

3

Steps 2-3 in simulation procedure 2 are based on the Geweke-HajivassiliouKeane (GHK) simulator. The GHK simulator is widely used in econometrics (see, for example, Hajivassiliou, McFadden, and Ruud (1996) for details). The only difference from the standard GHK-simulator is Step 2, in which we recommend to use the LDL decomposition instead of Cholesky decomposition. This is because Λθ may only be positive semidefinite. Simulation procedure 2 yields a critical value cθ . Hence, one can determine whether or not a value of the structural parameter should be included in the confidence region by checking if Tn (θ) ≤ cθ holds. For constructing a confidence region, one needs to repeat the procedures above for different values of θ ∈ Θ. To r R save computational costs, one can draw {(ur1 , · · · , urK )}R r=1 and {w }r=1 only once and use them repeatedly across all values of θ. A final remark is that the procedures described above extend to other settings. In other models, the researcher may use a different solution concept (e.g. pairwise stability of networks) that defines the correspondence G(·|θ, x), or a different parametric specification for the latent variables in the payoff function (e.g. random coefficients following a mixed logit specification). In such cases, one need modify only Steps 1 and 2 in simulation procedure 1.

References [1] S. Berry, Estimation of a model of entry in the airline industry, Econometrica 60 (1992), 889-917. [2] T.F. Bresnahan and P.C. Reiss, Entry in monopoly markets, Rev. Econ. Stud. 57 (1990), 531-553. [3] T.F. Bresnahan and P.C. Reiss, Empirical models of discrete games, J. Econometrics 48 (1991), 57-81. [4] F. Ciliberto and E. Tamer, Market structure and multiple equilibria in airline markets, Econometrica 77 (2009), 1791-1828. [5] V. Hajivassiliou, D. McFadden, and P. Ruud, Simulation of multivariate normal rectangle probabilities and their derivatives theoretical and computational results, J. Econometrics 72 (1996), 85–134.

4

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