[Retail] Gibbs: Sarasota Shopping Can Survive UTC Storm Jacob Ogles, [email protected]

A new market study shows that Sarasota's existing retail centers should remain strong even after a new mall opens on University Parkway. While retail expert Robert Gibbs warned there will be growing pains, the city in fact could sustain an additional 256,000 square feet of retail space opening in the region right now beyond the mall and still stay healthy.

"It's a strong market," Gibbs said. Gibbs Planning Group was hired by the city of Sarasota to study four retail centers in the area: Downtown, the Rosemary District, St. Armands Circle and the Martin Luther King, Jr. Corridor. One of the more surprising findings, he said, was that the average income within the market of even the most modest districts was higher than the national average. The average household income for customers in the MLK Corridor is about $46,100 today and is estimated to be $54,300 in 2019. The U.S. national average is about $45,000, Gibbs said. For St. Armands, the average household income for customers is in excess of $166,000. By the year 2019, the four markets combined could absorb another 300,100 square feet of retail, Gibbs said. "I'm not telling you you should build this," he stressed. "I'm telling you that is what is sustainable." The estimates take into effect the addition of The Mall at University Town Center, an 880,000-square-foot center Taubman Centers will open in October and the only enclosed mall expected to open in the nation this year. Of course, the mall will impact the region, and there will be some pains for existing retailers. The simple novelty of a new mall will attract many existing customers at Sarasota retailers to gravitate toward University Parkway short-term, and there will be a downturn that can last as long as a year. "You will lose some retailers who will move there, and you may have some businesses close," he said. "But we think fairly conservatively it's still a healthy market." The existing retail centers will still be able to draw loyal customers from its prime geographic market, and the Gibbs studies showed more than 70 percent of customers still come from areas within a short drive of the centers. The biggest long-term impact of the mall, Gibbs said, will be on shoppers' expectations. Many storefronts, particularly in the downtown area, have a dated look and customers will want to see a modern appearance for businesses. Gibbs recommended that commissioners create a storefront renovation program and consider boosting the standards for signage at retailers. "The better retailers now want to go to downtowns with high standards," he said. "It can cost $1 million or $2 million to open one of these stores, and they want to know everyone will build to that standard." The city should also hire someone to actively recruit retailers in certain sectors, and specifically noted that St. Armands has too high a percentage of restaurants; he pointed out there are now seven ice cream stores in that district alone. "There will be a tipping point when, with a large percentage of restaurants and a small percentage of retail, it will become an entertainment district and it will be hard for retailers to survive."