State Bank of India | February 1, 2016

MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+

February 1, 2016

Anil Agarwal

State Bank of India

[email protected] +852 2848-5842 MORGAN STANLEY INDIA COMPANY PRIVATE LIMITED+

Reducing Target to ~0.5x Book Industry View In-Line

Stock Rating Underweight

Sumeet Kariwala [email protected]

Price Target Rs115.0

Increasing bad loan formation to reflect RBI's action on NPL's taking credit costs to ~175 bps in F16/F17. EPS reduces by ~28-35% (we are ~45% below consensus for F17). Average ROE of 7% (F2H16-F17) and high capital need will keep stock under pressure. Rs115 target price, implies 36% downside What's Changed? State Bank of India Price Target EPS F2H16/17/18e By

From

To

Rs150.00 Rs115.00 -34% / -28% / -28%

Increasing credit costs to ~175 bps - Following ICICI Bank's earnings, we are building in much higher NPL formation estimates for the SBI parent - up at Rs350bn for F2H16 from earlier Rs150bn. We also expect about Rs100bn of restructured loans to be classified as perennial restructuring - implying higher provisioning at @ 15% than the current 5%. This takes credit costs to 175bps in F16/F17. F18 will also stay high as coverage on current loans stays low and by then the current crop of SDR's could start turning bad. Strong growth in power and iron & steel loans in F13-16 is another risk for outer years.

+91 22 6118-2235

Subramanian Iyer [email protected]

+91 22 6118-2234

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State Bank of India ( SBI.NS, SBIN IN ) India Financials / India Stock Rating Industry View Price target Up/downside to price target (%) Shr price, close (Jan 29, 2016) 52-Week Range Mkt cap, curr (bn) Avg daily trading value (mn) Fiscal Year Ending ModelWare EPS (Rs) Prior ModelWare EPS (Rs) ModelWare net inc (Rs mn) P/E P/BV Return on avg eqty (%)

Underweight In-Line Rs115.0 (36) Rs179.9 Rs333.60-171.50 US$19.8 US$57

03/15 22.8 -

03/16e 20.3 24.1

03/17e 18.7 25.8

03/18e 22.8 31.4

169,943

154,637

145,059

176,750

11.7 1.3 11.3

8.9 0.8 9.2

9.6 0.7 7.9

7.9 0.7 9.1

Unless otherwise noted, all m etrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare fram ework e = Morgan Stanley Research estim ates

Revenue growth will also be weak - Capital levels are likely to come off (~9% CET1 ratio by F17) and with infusion at a slow pace, the bank will have to keep overall loan growth in single digits. We are also building in meaningful NIM compression - higher NPL's (no interest accrual); lower interest rates (base rate change) and lower LD ratio. This will keep PPoP growth low, with PPoP margins to trend down to 2.2% of loans in F17. 1998-2002 cycle low multiples are a high probability now - In our note, India Financials: SoE Banks: Why 0.1-0.4x Book Is a High Probability (14 Jan 2014), we discussed why we think SOE banks may trend towards multiples seen in the late 1990s - early 2000s. Smaller SOE banks are closer to those multiples, while SBI is still higher. But continued weakness in the economy and meager capital infusion into SOE banks is causing the vicious cycle of high NPL's ->weak profits -> weak capital -> low growth to be even more prolonged. We expect SBI to catch up with other SOE banks. Unlike that cycle, bond gains will not save the day for banks - the only way to reduce pain is a quick and large capital infusion, in our view. Reducing target price to Rs115 (~0.5x F17 consol book) - We are now building in ROA to average 0.4% over F2H16 - F17 and ROE at 7%. Capital needed till F19 (assuming 11% average RWA growth) is ~Rs450bn, implying annual capital raises. Tough to see the bank doing well in this backdrop - we would continue to own private banks, which should keep gaining share.

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. + = An alysts emp lo yed b y n o n -U .S. affiliates are n o t registered w ith FINRA, may n o t b e asso ciated p erso n s o f th e memb er an d may n o t b e su b ject to NASD/NYSE restrictio n s o n co mmu n icatio n s w ith a su b ject co mp an y, p u b lic ap p earan ces an d tradin g secu rities h eld b y a research an alyst acco u n t.

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State Bank of India | February 1, 2016

MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

State Bank of India (SBI.NS, Rs180, UW, PT Rs115) Weakening PPoP margins and rising asset quality stress amid high market share gains in stressed segments – UW Investment Thesis: Why Underweight?

So u rce: Th o mso n Reu ters, Mo rgan Stan ley Research estimates

Price Target Rs115

Derived from probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts (we use separate probability weightings for the insurance business – see valuation section for details).

Bull

Sharp rebound in economic growth (quick capex recovery, material moderation in inflation): NIM improves sharply in F2016e as funding cost falls. Loan growth is much stronger than in the base case. Asset quality trends are better than expected. Impaired loan formation is much lower than in the base case. Value of insurance business is based on a P/EV multiple of 3.0x.

Rs260

1.0x Dec-17e BVPS

Base

Rs112

0.4x Dec-17e BVPS

Bear

Rs87

0.3x Dec-17e BVPS

Improvement in macroeconomic indicators is sustained: Loan book CAGR of 11% in F16-17e, compared to 7% in F15. Margin falls ~20bps in F16e, and by ~10bps in F17e. Credit costs remain elevated at ~165bps in F16-17e and ~150bps in F18e. Value of insurance business is based on a P/EV multiple of 2.0x. Materially weaker economic growth: Loan growth and margins are lower than in the base case. Impaired loan formation is higher than expected, driven by high slippages from corporate/SME loans and restructuring in the infrastructure segment. Value of insurance business is based on a P/EV multiple of 1.3x.

Following RBI's actions to clean banks balance sheets and given weak macro, we see material rises in credit costs in the next couple of years. This will pressure RoA and RoE at ~0.4% and ~7%, respectively, during H2-F16/F17. More importantly, bank' strong growth in power and iron & steel loans during F13-16 is another risk for outer years. Loan growth will remain muted and margins will see meaningful compression given higher NPL's (no interest accrual); lower interest rates (base rate change) and lower LD ratio. Capital levels are likely to come off quickly (9% CET1 ratio by F17) and with infusion slow, SBI will have to keep loan growth in the single digits. This will likely also lead to continued cash calls from shareholders and hence lower ROEs. Valuation at 0.7x consolidated F17e book value with ~7% average RoE is expensive in the context of 13.6% cost of equity.

Key Value Drivers Revenue – margin progression, loan growth and fee income progression. Credit costs. Life insurance valuation/market share.

Potential Catalysts System-wide, loan/deposit growth trends. Margin progression. Deposit rate trends in India. Impaired loan trends.

Risks to Achieving Price Target Better than-expected volume growth and margin progression thanks to a sharp V-shaped economic rebound. Lower-than-expected impaired loan formation, driven by a sharp V-shaped economic rebound and policy actions in infrastructure. Significant progress on a proper recapitalization of the bank. Credit costs below expectations; improvement in operating efficiency, supporting ROA progression in the long term. 2

State Bank of India | February 1, 2016

MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

Financial Summary – SBI Exhibit 1: SBI Consolidated: Financial Summary

So u rce: Co mp an y data, Mo rgan Stan ley Research (E) estimates.

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State Bank of India | February 1, 2016

MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

Exhibit 2: SBI Parent: Financial Summary

So u rce: Co mp an y data, Mo rgan Stan ley Research (E) estimates.

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Asset Quality Pressures to Intensify One of the key takeaways from ICICI Bank earnings, for us, has been that RBI has been fairly aggressive in asking banks to report bad loans. There were a large number of corporate loans that were being evergreened in India - RBI's move implies banks will report these loans as bad. This doesn’t mean that all problem corporates are being reported as bad, for now. Only the most egregious ones are - we cannot rule out more RBI actions on other corporates. We are now extrapolating the NPL's seen in ICICI's earnings to SBI - we now build in Rs200bn (1.4% of loans) of additional NPL formation at the bank in F2H16 over and above the Rs130bn we were expecting earlier. Even at Rs200bn, we are building in an impact less than ICICI (1.4% of loans at SBI compared to 1.9% at ICICI). Assuming a similar impact as ICICI Bank, bad loan formation due to RBI will be higher at ~ Rs275bn. We are also assuming that the bank will have to top provisioning on about 20% of its current restructured loan book to 15% - costing it ~Rs10bn - in F17. The bank has been very aggressive in doing SDR's - this will help keep credit costs low in F16 and F17 on these loans. But we expect the bulk of these loans to turn bad in F18 and will need material catchup provisioning. We are taking credit costs to 175bps of loans in F16 (~230bps in F2H16), 175bps in F17 and 157bps in F18. This is a key driver for the cut in earnings. Can NPL's increase further or is RBI's action the peak - Our view is that bad loan formation will stay elevated for 2-3 more years at the bank. Over the last 3 years, the bank has been very aggressive at lending to problematic sectors - like iron & steel and power. Its exposure to these two sectors has increased by Rs2trillion in 3 years (up by a 27% CAGR). We struggle to see how a large part of these loans do not end up as NPL's. Also, all the forbearance measures being used right now - 5:25, SDR etc - will hit the P&L in F18 onwards, implying that credit costs stay higher for longer. Exhibit 3: Power & Iron/Steel Sector is Most Vulnerable – SBI's growth in these segments has been unprecedented

Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 4: While overall market share is stable, bank has been gaining market share in stressed sectors

Source: RBI, Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: We have rightsized the total exposure to exclude cash and bank balances, GSEC investments to arrive at a comparable denominator across banks. For system exposure data, we have used all banks in our coverage and IDBI, Corporation, Indian, Syndicate, IOB, UCO, Andhra, CBI, Dena and UBI.

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Exhibit 5: An Example of Increased Exposure to Challenged Corporates - SBI' Exposure to JPA Parent has almost doubled over the past three years

So u rce: Co mp an y data, Mo rgan Stan ley Research

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State Bank of India | February 1, 2016

MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

Exhibit 6: SBI (Parent): Detailed Credit Cost Estimates

So u rce: Co mp an y Data, Mo rgan Stan ley Research estimates

Exhibit 7: SBI (Parent): Credit Costs Progression

Exhibit 8: SBI (P) MSe vs Consensus EPS: We are ~25%/45%/45% below consensus in F16/17/18e

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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Exhibit 9: Our Provisioning Estimates Are Not Aggressive Compared to Other Large Corporate Lenders

So u rce: Co mp an y data, Mo rgan Stan ley Research estimates; W e h ave assu med n egligib le p ro visio n s o n retail lo an b o o k at all b an ks

Loan growth and margins to also be impacted meaningfully Higher NPL formation takes down our NIM estimates further. We are now building in 283 bps of NIM for F17 from 298 bps in F16 (vs. 300 bps earlier) and 316 bps in F15. There can be further headwinds from any competition from the new base rate mechanism - but it is unlikely that banks compete aggressively given the headwinds due to asset quality. Also, with capital generation very weak, the bank will need constant capital raises, in our view. In fact, this has been one of the challenges for SBI - it was self funded between 1997 and 2007, despite the strong growth seen in India in that period. However, since 2012, it has been doing constant dilutions. With no big bang capital infusion likely - we are likely to see small and constant streams of capital infusions. In our view, the bank potentially needs to raise US$10.5bn of capital by F19 in a stress test scenario (see our note, India Financials: Asia Insight: Stress Testing Indian Banks. How Bad Could It Get? (10 Jan 2016)). However, with capital infusions coming in a trickle, loan growth will have to stay low. We are building in a 10% loan growth CAGR over F15-F18 - with a possibility that actual growth is even lower. This, in turn, creates a vicious cycle for asset quality - with banks unable to lend, corporate stress will continue, thereby creating even more pressure on capital. Exhibit 10: SBI: Historical Capital Raises

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

The result is cuts in consolidated earnings of 34% in F2H16, 27.5% in F17 and 27.5 % in F18 We have already seen signs of the likely impact on SBI through the earnings reported by its subsidiaries - SBM, SBBJ and SBT - where F3Q16 earnings were down 30% YoY and 39% QoQ. 8

State Bank of India | February 1, 2016

MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

Exhibit 11: SBI Subsidiaries (SBH, SBBJ and SBT): F3Q16 Results Summary

So u rce: Co mp an y data, Mo rgan Stan ley Research

Exhibit 12: SBI (Parent): What's Changed?

Exhibit 13: SBI (Consol): What's Changed?

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

On our new numbers, the stock will generate 0.57%, 0.46% and 0.51% ROA in F16, F17 and F18, respectively. This essentially translates into an ROE Of 8.5%, 7.2% and 8.5% in those years. We are not building in a capital infusion - but if we assume that normalised leverage at SBI will be ~12-14x, normalised ROE will, in turn, be ~67%.

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Exhibit 14: SBI (Parent) ROA: 1% is an exception, not the norm. We expect it to average 0.5% over F16-F18

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Exhibit 15: SBI (Consol) ROA: We expect it to average ~0.5% over F16-F18

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Journey to 1998-2002 Cycle Lows Given the continued increases in bad loans and falling ROE, we expect investors to take multiples lower. SBI has outperformed smaller SOE banks meaningfully and now trades at 2x P/B compared to smaller banks. We also don’t like smaller banks, but the relative gap looks untenable. As we move ahead, we would expect multiples to keep trending down. In 2002, the bank (and other SOE banks) benefitted from sharply lower bond yields and hence bond gains, which helped recapitalise the bank. In this cycle, this is unlikely, given the smaller size of bond books and LCR regulations, which require banks to maintain higher liquidity buffers. The only way out is material amounts of capital, in our view. In our bear case, we now assume that the bank trades down to the bottom of the 1998-2002 cycle, ie, 0.4-0.5x book, and apply this to consolidated F17 book. Exhibit 16: Sharp fall in bond yields led to massive bond gains for SBI (and Indian banks) in the early 2000s

Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 17: Total bond gains for SBI formed ~45% of F2000 book value, aiding recapitalization of balance sheet

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

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Exhibit 18: SBI (Parent) : Price / Book

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Exhibit 19: SBI (Consol) : Price / Book

Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We acknowledge the contribution of Rahul Gupta and Bhargav Mehta to this report.

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Price Target Discussion Our price target for SBI of Rs115 (reduced from Rs150) is based on a probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts method. We assign probability weightings of 55% (unchanged) to our base case scenario value, 10% (unchanged) to our bull case (reflecting a strong economic recovery), and 35% (unchanged) to our bear case value (to factor in a significantly reduced risk of a double dip in the economy, though higher than for private banks due to the weak starting point of its balance sheet, i.e., high stock of impaired loans and low capital ratio). Our cost of equity assumption is unchanged at 13.6%. We value SBI’s two components on the following basis: Consolidated banking business: We value the banking entities at Rs100 (down from Rs139) using a threephase residual income model: a five-year high-growth period and a 10-year maturity period, followed by a declining period. We have cut our base, bear and bull-case scenario values by 31%, 16% and 8%, respectively, mainly driven by higher credit costs and lower margins estimates as discussed earlier. We have increased our F16/17/18 credit costs estimates to ~165/165/150bps from ~125/125/115bps earlier. We have cut our F17/18 NIM (computed) estimates by ~10bps to 2.7%/2.8%. Life Insurance: We assign a value for SBI life insurance of Rs11/share (unchanged). Our valuation of Rs116.2bn (US$1.9bn) is based on a probability-weighted P/EV method. We assign a base-case probability weighting of 75%, a bear-case weighting of 20%, and a bull-case weighting of 5% (all unchanged). While probabilities are subjective, these are our estimates given the proposal of a higher tax rate regime. In our base case, we continue to expect new individual business premiums to grow 5% in F2015, 18% in F2016 and 18% in F2017. We expect individual NBP margins at ~12% in F2015-17. Given this, our base- case value is Rs123bn, based on an unchanged P/EV of 2x. In our bear case, we factor in a continuation of the adverse macroeconomic environment, leading to declines in APE growth of 5% in F2015, 5% in F2016 and 10% in F2017. We estimate NBP margin of 10% in F2015-17, due mainly to the proposed higher tax rate under the DTC. P/EV multiple is 1.3x, reflecting weaker economics. In our bull case, we expect a sharp improvement in the macro environment, leading to individual APE growth of 10% in F2015, 20% in F2016 and 25% in F2017. We assume a pre-cost overrun margin of 15% in F2015-17. P/EV multiple is 3.0x, as investors have historically paid up for life insurance businesses in a strong growth environment.

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State Bank of India | February 1, 2016

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Exhibit 20: SBI- Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation

Exhibit 21: SBI Life – Valuation

Source: Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates

Source: Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates. Note that SBI Life does not disclose embedded value and other relevant details critical for valuations. The embedded value used above is based on our best estimate of post-cost margins. As a result, our valuation could change materially if the actual EV is different from our estimates.

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State Bank of India | February 1, 2016

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Valuation Methodology and Risks State Bank of India (SBI.NS, UW, PT Rs115)

We derive our price target using a probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts method. Consolidated banking business: We value the consolidated banking business using a residual income model with three phases: a five-year high-growth period, a 10-year maturity period, and a declining period. We use a cost of equity of 13.6% assuming a risk-free rate of 7.5%, a market risk premium of 5.5% and a beta of 1.1. We assign weightings of 55% to our base-case scenario value, 10% to our bull-case (reflecting sharp economic recovery) and 35% to our bear-case value (to factor in a significantly reduced risk of a double dip in the economy, though higher than for private banks due to the weak starting point of its balance sheet, i.e., high stock of impaired loans and low capital ratio). Life Insurance: We value the life insurance business using a probability-weighted P/EV method. We assign a base case probability weighting of 75%, a bear-case weighting of 20%, and a bull-case weighting of 5%. While probabilities are subjective, these are our estimates given the proposal of higher tax rate under the Direct Tax Code (DTC). Upside risks to our price target: Better-than-expected volume growth and margin progression were a sharp V-shaped economic rebound to occur. Significant progress on a proper recapitalization of the bank.

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Analyst Certification The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Anil Agarwal; Subramanian Iyer; Sumeet Kariwala. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts.

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STOCK RATINGS Morgan Stanley uses a relative rating system using terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated or Underweight (see definitions below). Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold and sell. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Morgan Stanley Research. In addition, since Morgan Stanley Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully read Morgan Stanley Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations.

Global Stock Ratings Distribution (as of January 31, 2016) For disclosure purposes only (in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we include the category headings of Buy, Hold, and Sell alongside our ratings of Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight. Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings (see definitions below). To satisfy regulatory requirements, we correspond Overweight, our most positive stock rating, with a buy recommendation; we correspond Equal-weight and Not-Rated to hold and Underweight to sell recommendations, respectively. 15

State Bank of India | February 1, 2016

MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH COVERAGE UNIVERSE

STOCK RATING CATEGORY

Overweight/Buy Equal-weight/Hold Not-Rated/Hold Underweight/Sell

TOTAL

INVESTMENT BANKING CLIENTS (IBC)

COUNT

% OF TOTAL

COUNT

% OF TOTAL IBC

% OF RATING CATEGORY

1206 1432 79 658

36% 42% 2% 19%

323 331 9 86

43% 44% 1% 11%

27% 23% 11% 13%

3,375

749

Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months.

Analyst Stock Ratings Overweight (O). The stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Equal-weight (E). The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Not-Rated (NR). Currently the analyst does not have adequate conviction about the stock's total return relative to the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Underweight (U). The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months. Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Research is 12 to 18 months.

Analyst Industry Views Attractive (A): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. In-Line (I): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Cautious (C): The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America - S&P 500; Latin America - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index; Europe MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI sub-regional index or MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index.

Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History (See Rating Definitions)

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State Bank of India | February 1, 2016

MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

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State Bank of India | February 1, 2016

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RATING (AS OF)

PRICE* (01/29/2016)

O (11/19/2013) O (05/08/2012) O (01/18/2010) O (04/08/2013) U (12/15/2014)

Rs408.40 Rs1,180.00 Rs1,049.85 Rs230.15 Rs179.90

O (11/09/2015) E (06/22/2015) E (10/19/2015) U (09/19/2014) U (02/06/2014) E (09/03/2015) U (05/04/2015) O (12/16/2015)

Rs52.55 Rs706.95 Rs475.90 Rs207.85 Rs854.60 Rs1,414.65 Rs844.25 Rs529.60

O (08/17/2015) U (06/08/2015) U (09/19/2014) U (01/05/2016) O (03/10/2014) O (05/18/2014) U (05/19/2014) U (01/30/2015) U (09/19/2014) U (01/28/2015) O (03/10/2014)

Rs125.40 Rs100.30 Rs194.00 Rs46.15 Rs928.80 Rs683.60 Rs365.70 Rs112.00 Rs91.30 Rs130.85 Rs746.80

Anil Agarwal Axis Bank (AXBK.NS) HDFC (HDFC.NS) HDFC Bank (HDBK.NS) ICICI Bank (ICBK.NS) State Bank of India (SBI.NS)

Subramanian Iyer IDFC Bank (IDFB.NS) Indiabulls Housing Finance (INBF.NS) LIC Housing Finance Ltd. (LICH.NS) Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services (MMFS.NS) Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCEI.NS) Shriram City Union Finance Ltd (SHCU.NS) Shriram Transport Finance Co. Ltd. (SRTR.NS) SKS Microfinance (SKSM.NS)

Sumeet Kariwala Bank of Baroda (BOB.NS) Bank of India (BOI.NS) Canara Bank (CNBK.NS) Federal Bank (FED.NS) IndusInd Bank (INBK.NS) Kotak Mahindra Bank (KTKM.NS) Max India (MAXI.NS) Oriental Bank of Commerce (ORBC.NS) Punjab National Bank (PNBK.NS) Union Bank of India (UNBK.NS) Yes Bank (YESB.NS)

Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company. * Historical prices are not split adjusted.

© 2016 Morgan Stanley

18

SBI-MS.pdf

power and iron & steel loans in F13-16 is another risk for outer years. Revenue growth will also be weak - Capital levels arelikely to come off. (~9% CET1 ratio ...

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