COLOGNE UNIVERSTITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES INSTITUTE FOR TECHNOLOGIES IN THE TROPICS
Smallholder Production and Climate Risk in the Baixo Amazonas Region, Brazil
MASTER’S THESIS Handed in by Vanesa Rodríguez Osuna Matriculation Nr. 11058441
22/09/09
Table of contents
i
Table of contents Table of contents............................................................................................................. i Table of Tables .............................................................................................................. iii Table of figures...............................................................................................................iv Acronyms .......................................................................................................................vi Declaration....................................................................................................................vii Acknowledgement .......................................................................................................viii Abstract...........................................................................................................................x Zusammenfassung..........................................................................................................xi 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Research hypotheses................................................................................................ 3 1.2. Research questions and objectives .......................................................................... 3 2. Conceptual framework.............................................................................................. 5 2.1. Climate change impacts on smallholder livelihood systems.................................... 5 2.2. Vulnerability and adaptive capacity towards climate change ................................. 5 2.3. Adaptation to climate change: general understanding ........................................... 7 2.4. Types of adaptation.................................................................................................. 8 2.5. Limits and barriers to adaptation............................................................................. 9 3. Study area ............................................................................................................... 10 3.1. Physical characteristics........................................................................................... 10 3.1.1
Geographical location ................................................................................................ 10
3.1.2
Climate ....................................................................................................................... 10
3.1.3
Hydrology ................................................................................................................... 11
3.1.4
Land cover .................................................................................................................. 11
3.2. Socio‐economic characteristics .............................................................................. 13 3.2.1
Population .................................................................................................................. 13
3.2.2
Economic activities ..................................................................................................... 14
4. Materials and Methods ........................................................................................... 24 4.1. Sample definition.................................................................................................... 24 4.2. Livelihood assessment............................................................................................ 30 4.3. Producer’s classification ......................................................................................... 31 4.4. Risk analysis and adaptation to climate related risks ............................................ 32
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5. Results and analysis ................................................................................................ 35 5.1. Climate change in Brazil and the Amazon.............................................................. 35 5.1.1
Current climate trends ............................................................................................... 35
5.1.2
Projected temperature and precipitation changes .................................................... 35
5.1.3
Climate related impacts ............................................................................................. 40
5.1.4
Extreme events........................................................................................................... 41
5.1.5
Vegetation changes savannisation ............................................................................ 42
5.1.6
Perception of climate related risks and their impacts in the study area.................... 43
5.2. Livelihood assessment............................................................................................ 45 5.2.1
General household characterisation .......................................................................... 45
5.2.2
Welfare assessment ................................................................................................... 46
5.2.3
Production .................................................................................................................. 50
5.2.4
Labour ........................................................................................................................ 54
5.3. Perceived risks among all type of producers ......................................................... 56 5.4. Producer’s classification ......................................................................................... 58 5.4.1
Welfare index ............................................................................................................. 58
5.4.2
Income diversity index................................................................................................ 58
5.5. Risk analysis and adaptation to climate related risks ............................................ 64 5.5.1
Agriculture.................................................................................................................. 64
5.5.2
NWFP.......................................................................................................................... 65
5.5.3
Fisheries...................................................................................................................... 66
6. Discussion ............................................................................................................... 67 6.1. Livelihood assessment............................................................................................ 67 6.2. Welfare assessment ............................................................................................... 67 6.3. Production .............................................................................................................. 68 6.4. Perceived risks among all type of producers ......................................................... 68 6.5. Producer’s classification ......................................................................................... 68 6.6. Risk analysis and adaptation to climate related risks ............................................ 68 7. Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 70 8. References .............................................................................................................. 73 APPENDIXES ................................................................................................................. 80 Appendix I. Random sampling of communities................................................................ i Appendix II. Semi‐structured questionnaire: Livelihoods................................................ ii Appendix III. Welfare index (price based) ......................................................................xx Appendix IV. Semi‐structured questionnaires: Risks................................................. .xxiv
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Table of Tables Table 3‐1. Producer’s type classification according size of land used for agriculture ........ 17 Table 3‐2. Livestock production in Alenquer Municipality................................................. 21 Table 3‐3. Production of most important species for Alenquer......................................... 21 Table 4‐1. Communities, population and results of random sampling within the study area.................................................................................................................. 29 Table 5‐1. Current climatic trends for Brazil....................................................................... 35 Table 5‐2. Projected temperature and precipitation changes for the Amazon region...... 36 Table 5‐3. Impacts on human health related to extreme events....................................... 41 Table 5‐4. Summary of the most important perceived climate event and their impacts by community members in Alenquer .................................................................. 44 Table 5‐5. Selection of representative families based on a PCA comparing points including & excluding animals ........................................................................................ 59 Table 5‐6. Income diversity index considering different sources of income / wellbeing .. 60 Table 5‐7. Producer’s type classification ............................................................................ 61 Table 5‐8. Final classification of producer’s group for the risk analysis............................. 62
Table of figures
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Table of figures Figure 2.1. Conceptual framework to vulnerability assessment........................................... 6 Figure 2.2. Adaptation to climate change and variability .................................................... 8 Figure 3.1. Calha Norte region ............................................................................................ 10 Figure 3.2. Typical landscapes of TF (top) and VA (bottom) ............................................... 11 Figure 3.3. Land cover map of the Brazilian Legal Amazon for the year 2000.................... 12 Figure 3.4. Deforestation rates in Pará, 1988 – 2008.......................................................... 13 Figure 3.5. Landsat image of the deforestation in the northern Area of Amazon River (Alenquer).................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 3.6. Evolution of the population in Alenquer........................................................... 14 Figure 3.7. Evolution of livestock production for the municipalities in the Caha Norte region in 2001/2005 .................................................................................................... 15 Figure 3.8. Simplified scheme for agriculture (roçado) in areas of Terra Firme (Alenquer)16 Figure 3.9. Tendency of production within the Alenquer Municipality, 2000 – 2007 ........ 18 Figure 3.10. Temporary crops (planted area, ha) 1994 – 2007........................................... 18 Figure 3.11. Tendency of production of temporary crops, 1994 – 2007 ............................ 19 Figure 3.12. Non‐wood forest production 1994 – 2007...................................................... 19 Figure 3.13. Permanent crops (planted area in ha) 1994 – 2007........................................ 20 Figure 3.14. Simplified scheme for agriculture and fishing in areas of várzea ................... 23 Figure 4.1. Official presentation in the City Council from Alenquer ................................... 25 Figure 4.2. Exploratory trip to typical communities of different sectors............................ 26 Figure 4.3. Mapping the communities in situ within the study area .................................. 26 Figure 4.4. Delimitation of the study area........................................................................... 27 Figure 4.5. Principal productive activities ........................................................................... 28 Figure 4.6. Participative part to find out the importance of income sources and risks among the producers .................................................................................................. 31 Figure 4.7. Second series of in depth interviews................................................................. 34 Figure 5.1. Projected precipitation changes in the Brazilian Amazon for the period 2071‐ 2100 ............................................................................................................................. 37 Figure 5.2. Projected temperature changes in the Brazilian Amazon for the period 2071‐ 2100 ............................................................................................................................. 38 Figure 5.3. Projections of precipitation changes (mm d‐1) for South America between 2071 and 2100 (A2 scenario) compared to the base period 1961‐1990 ............................. 39 Figure 5.4. Projections of precipitation changes (mm d‐1) for South America between 2071 and 2100 (B1 scenario) compared to the base period 1961‐1990 ............................. 39
Table of figures
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Figure 5.5. Projections of temperature changes (°C) for South America between 2071 and 2100 (A2 scenario) compared to the base period 1961‐1990 .................................... 40 Figure 5.6. Projections of temperature changes (°C) for South America between 2071 and 2100 (A2 scenario) compared to the base period 1961‐1990 .................................... 40 Figure 5.7. Potential biomes for the period 2071‐2100 considering scenario A2 .............. 42 Figure 5.8. Levels of water in Amazon River (Óbidos – Baixo Amazonas region) ............... 43 Figure 5.9. Average age distribution amongst households................................................. 45 Figure 5.10. Distribution of land size belonging to local households and number of land parcels per household ................................................................................................. 46 Figure 5.11. Animal possession amongst interviewed families .......................................... 47 Figure 5.12. Possession of several items amongst households .......................................... 48 Figure 5.13. Instruments used by fishers ............................................................................ 49 Figure 5.14. Access to electricity ......................................................................................... 49 Figure 5.15. Housing materials............................................................................................ 50 Figure 5.16. Activities related to income generation and wellbeing .................................. 50 Figure 5.17. Number of income sources ............................................................................. 51 Figure 5.18. Permanent crops amongst interviewed families ............................................ 52 Figure 5.19. Most important temporary crops amongst interviewed families................... 52 Figure 5.20. Types of animal possession amongst interviewed families ............................ 53 Figure 5.21. Non – wood forest products from the families living in TF (39 families)........ 53 Figure 5.22. Ten most important fish amongst the interviewed families........................... 54 Figure 5.23. Work outside the household........................................................................... 55 Figure 5.24. Hired labour..................................................................................................... 55 Figure 5.25. Monthly distribution of labour........................................................................ 55 Figure 5.26. Distributions of the perceived risks affecting surveyed households .............. 56 Figure 5.27. Prioritisation of perceived risks....................................................................... 57 Figure 5.28. The two most important perceived risks ........................................................ 57 Figure 5.29. Income and wellbeing sources for the “Lower welfare index/less diverse” producers group .......................................................................................................... 62 Figure 5.30. Comparison of activities (income & wellbeing) within the six producers groups ............................................................................................................ 63
Acronyms
vi
Acronyms ANA
Agência Nacional de Aguas
ASPROEXPA
Associação dos Pequenos Produtores Rurais Extrativistas e Pescadores Artesanai s
CEPLAC
Comissão Executiva do Plano da Lavoura Cacaueira
CEPTEC
Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos
CIFOR
Center for International Forestry Research
DED
Deutscher Entwicklungsdienst
EMATER
Empresa de Assistência Técnica e Extensão Rural do Estado do Pará
EMBRAPA
Empresa Brasilera de Pesquisa Agropecuária
GCMs
General Circulation Models
GTZ
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit
IPAM
Instituto de Pesquisa na Amazônia
IBGE
Instituto Brasilero de Geografia Estadística
INPE
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ProVárzea
Projeto Manejo dos Recursos Naturais da Várzea
RAVA
Red de Estudios de las Condiciones Amazonicas de Vida y Ambiente (Amazon Livelihoods and Environmental Network)
SEMA
Secretaria do Meio Ambiente de Alenquer
SRES
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
STR
Sindicato de Trabalhadores Rurais de Alenquer
UAMA
Unidade de Apoio do Ministério da Agricultura em Alenquer
UEPA
Universidade do Estado do Pará
UNIDA
Unidade Integrada de Defesa Ambiental
Z – 28
Colônia de Pescadores Artesanais Z‐28 de Alenquer
Declaration
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Declaration Name: Vanesa Eliana Rodríguez Osuna
Matriculation No.: 11058441
Hereby I declare on oath that this work in hand has been made independently and without the use of any other than the aids given below. The thoughts taken directly or indirectly from external sources are made recognizable as such. This work was not presented to any other examination authority either in same or similar form and till now has not been published. Cologne,
Signature:………………………
Further I agree / do not agree to a later publication of this Master Thesis, may it be in parts or as complete works within the ITT publications or within the scope of ITT’s public relations. Signature:…………………………….
Acknowledgement
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Acknowledgement First of all, I would like to thank the DAAD Scholarship Program that gave me the chance to study at ITT. Within this organisation, a special thanks to Mr. Klaus Stark, who has been there for me to face out any inconvenience and making life in Germany more pleasant. My deepest gratitude is extended to Prof. Gaese for his inspiring teachings and support along the Masters Programme, from where I had the focus to carry out this research. Also I am truly grateful for the guidance, motivation and moral support he has given me along this time. I am deeply thankful especially to Rui Pedroso (ITT) and Jan Börner (CIM/GTZ) that gave me constant invaluable orientation, comments, corrections, support along the making of this thesis. I faced several problems in my first time working in Brazil (dealing with local language to experiencing the force of record flood episodes) but thanks to their support I overcame all of them, leaving in my memory just a wonderful and unforgettable experience. This research is embedded in the Small Grant research program of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (GTZ), “Small‐scale producers’ adaptation to climate risk in the Brazilian Amazon: Promoting knowledge‐to‐action through collaboration in research and technical cooperation”. In Brazil, I am grateful to all staff from the Amazon Initiative Consortium, who gave me a warm welcome and made my work in Belém so pleasant. I want to thank some people whose support for my work was of immense value for me: Meghan Doiron, Edilson Serrão, Zingara Azevedo, Javier and Flávia Ruiz. On the other hand, I would also like to thank those people who helped me during the field work, especially Christiane Ehringhaus (CIFOR), who provided valuable key field work information necessary for the understanding of the livelihood context in Alenquer. Thank you to the people in Alenquer, who helped me getting to know this area, opening their doors and also supporting me with their time, information, data, and gave me just an unforgettable experience: Eracildo Preto Maia & Naldo Maia (Sindicato de
Acknowledgement
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Trabalhdores Rurais), Celinho (Colonia de Pescadores Z – 28), Técnicos de EMATER, SEMA, Prof. Aurea Nina, Associação Comunitária de Negros do Quilombo Pacoval de Alenquer, as well as to Christiane, Xizúe, Thiago and Edilson Rodrigues from the UEPA, part of the team carrying out some of the field work. A special thanks to my Brazilian family (Azevedos), especially Cinara, Jessica, Dona Maria, Zingara and also my good mates there (Amanda, Jamie, Meghan) who made it all in the end very difficult for me to leave. You all have given me an unforgettable time in Brazil and will always be in my mind. I am deeply indebted to all ITT staff for your assistance in the last two years, whose help, encouragement; suggestions stimulated my study in Germany. Thanks to all of my international mates at ITT for all the wonderful times we spend together, here especially Shritu, Wiwin, Juliana, May, Viet, Yonas, Tekalegn, Marcel, Joseph, Christian, Tobias, Fabian, Sebastian, Charlie, Martin, which I consider a very special part of my life and I am truly blessed to have enjoyed time with you. In Germany, I must also say thanks to my dear Mitbewohner (Niki, Stefan, Benni), my German family who were there giving me constant moral support. I dedicate my thesis to the memory of mi Papá Esteban, my family and my mates (especially Manos and Gaby) that are the most important part of my life. Thanks for your inspiration, love and support throughout my life; this would never be possible without you.
Abstract
x
Abstract Climate models consistently predict higher incidence of extreme weather events, such as droughts, in the Amazon region as well as a warmer and drier climate especially in the Eastern part of the biome. Past Amazon droughts demonstrated the vulnerability of both forests and people to such local impacts of global climate change. This research seeks to (1) analyse and classify representative producer’s types in the study area relevant for later risk analysis, (2) to understand the perception of climatic and non‐climatic risks affecting local producers output and wellbeing, and (3) identify rural livelihood´s exposure to climate risk and to identify their related risk coping strategies. Representative producer’s types (PT) in the study area were analysed and classified through randomly sampled semi‐structured interviews and official statistics. Following the classification, detailed individual and group interviews with local producers of every PT in the studied communities were conducted and complemented by official information from government institutions and producer cooperatives. This study demonstrates that relative resource abundance in Amazonian producer settings is no guarantee for resilience against future climate shocks and that current climate related risks are not perceived as the most relevant for the producers and institutions. Climate change scenarios, however, significantly increase the share of climate born risk especially for poor and specialised producers. The lack of appropriate risk‐sharing institutions and safety nets for rural producers are therefore likely to become a more important policy issue in the decades to come. The analysis of local producer risk profiles and their composition appears as a precondition for well targeted adaptation efforts. Few studies have addressed risk in Amazonian production systems. This research is embedded in the Small Grant research program of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development: Small‐scale producers’ adaptation to climate risk in the Brazilian Amazon; Promoting knowledge‐to‐action through collaboration in research and technical cooperation. Keywords: Amazon, climate change, risk analyses
Zusammenfassung
xi
Zusammenfassung Klimamodelle prognostizieren übereinstimmend eine Häufung von extremen Wetterereignissen, wie z.b. Dürren, in der Amazonas Region, sowie wärmeres und trockeneres Klima, speziell im Osten dieses Biomes. Vergangene Dürreperioden im Amazonasgebiet haben die Vulnerabilität von Wald und Mensch bezüglich solcher lokalen Auswirkungen des globalen Klimawandels demonstriert. Die vorliegende Studie hat zum Ziel: (1) die Analyse und Klassifizierung von representative Produzententypen im Studiengebiet für spätere Riskoanalysen, (2) die Wahrnehmung von Klima‐ und Nicht‐Klimarisiken welche Auswirkungen auf den Ertrag und die Wohlfahrt der lokalen Produzentendie haben, zu verstehen, und (3) die Identifikation von der Ausetzung ländlicher livelihoods gegenüber Klimarisko, sowie die zugehörigen Riskobewältigungsstrategien. Für das Studiengebiet representative Produzententypen (PT) wurden anhand von semistrukturierten Interviews (Zufallauswahl) und offiziellen Statistiken analisiert und klassifiziert. Dieser Klassifizierung folgend wurden detaillierte Individual‐ und Gruppeninterviews mit lokalen Produzenten jedes PT in den untersuchten Gemeinden durchgeführt und mit offiziellen informationen von Regierungsinstitutionen und Produzentenvereinigungen komplementiert. Diese Studie demostriert, dass der relative Überfluss natürlicher Ressourcen in der Amazonas Region keine Garantie für die Resilienz gegen künftige Klimashocks ist und dass gegenwärtige Klimabezogene Risiken von Produzenten und lokalen Institutionen nicht als die relevantesten Risiken wahrgenommen werden. Klimawandelszenarien erhöhen allerdings den Anteil an klimabedingten Risiken; speziell für die armen und spezialisierten Produzenten. Der Mangel an adäquaten Institutionen für Risikobewältigung und Sicherheitsnetzwerke für ländliche Produzenten werden daher mit Wahrscheinlichkeit ein wichtigere Policy Themen innerhalb der nächsten Jahrzente werden. Die Analyse von Risikoprofilen lokaler Produzenten und deren Zusammensetzung erscheint dabei als Voraussetzung für zielgerichtete Anpassungsbemühungen. Wenige Studien haben bis dato Risko in amazonischen Produktionsszstemen untersucht. Diese Studie wurde durchgeführt im Rahmen des Projekts „Small‐scale producers’ adaptation to climate risk in the Brazilian Amazon; Promoting knowledge‐to‐action through collaboration in research and technical cooperation“, welches im Programm für kleine Forschungsvorhaben (Small Grants Programme) des Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ) eingebunden ist. Stichwörter: Amazonas, Klimawandel, Risikoanalyse
Chapter 1. Introduction
1.
1
Introduction
Climate change is already widely accepted amongst scientists globally (Feenstra et al., 1998; IPCC, 2001). The most important global processes of climate change1 observed over the past years include global warming, rise of sea level, decrease of snow cover and ice extent, changes in precipitation patterns, among others (IPCC, 2001). Additionally, long term changes in climate at continental, regional and ocean basin scales have been observed (IPCC, 2007). Even if right now all the greenhouse gas and aerosol levels were to be stabilised, it is still very likely that in the next two decades the warming will amount to ca. 0.2° C per decade. Moreover, warming caused by anthropogenic pressures and the rise of sea level would continue for centuries because of the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks (IPCC, 2007). In the past most societies have learned to cope with familiar disturbances or temporary threats regarding climatic variability by using a series of practices. Nevertheless, climate change in the 21st century brings new risks, many of them not included in the range of existing experiences, such as impacts associated with heatwaves, drought, accelerated glacier retreat and hurricane intensity (Adger et al., 2007). Considering these new risks, not all groups are exposed to the same risk and therefore affected in the same way; that is they have different adaptive capacities and some groups are especially vulnerable like poorer population and communities in rural areas (FAO, 2007; IPCC, 2007a; Szlafsztein, 2009). Climate models consistently predict higher incidence of extreme weather events such as drought in the Amazon region (Magrin et al., 2007; Mahli, 2008), projecting also a warmer and drier climate (Case, s.a.; Fearnside, s.a.; Sampaio et al., 2007). This effect has more intensity, when considering global climate simulations that take the connection between warming of water in the Pacific Ocean and the occurrence of El Niño into account (Fearnside, s.a.). Additionally, according to IPCC (2007a) by mid‐century a gradual process of savannization in eastern Amazon is projected. Similarly, more than 75% of climate models indicate that the forest to be found in the eastern and southern edges of this region will be converted into savannah by 2100 (Fearnside, s.a.). In recent decades, the rate of warming in Amazon has been about 0.25°C per decade (in comparison to 0.1°C per century reached at the end of the last glacial period) (Christiansen et al., 2007). Middle‐range greenhouse gas emission scenarios projected temperature increases of 3.3°C within this century, to some extent more in the interior during the dry season, or by up to 8°C if considerable forest dieback has an effect on regional biophysical properties (Christiansen et al., 2007). Global warming is accelerated by deforestation, whose impacts include the reduction in water cycling, which in turn constrains regional precipitation (Laurance et al., 2001) and
1
The most pertinent definition for this study is the one from IPCC where climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.
Chapter 1. Introduction
2
loss of biodiversity (Fearnside, 2005). Moreover, regional climate could be altered in a significant manner if deforestation is practiced in large scales (Case, s.a.; Nobre et al., 1991; Sampaio et al., 2007). All these impacts contribute to the establishment of hotter and drier conditions in the region (Case, s.a.; Sampaio et al., 2007). While worldwide about 70% of the total emission of greenhouse gases (and thus their warming impacts) results from the burning of fossil fuels; in Brazil more than three‐ fourths of the emissions are produced by the Amazonian deforestation (Fearnside, s.a.). The “modern” area of deforestation in the Amazon region began in 1970 with the Transamazon Highway (Fearnside, 2005; Moran, 1993). The drivers for deforestation are various; however cattle ranching is the most predominant driver. Large and medium‐size ranches alone account for around 70% of the clearing activity (Fearnside, 2005). The process of deforestation in this region can be explained by credit policies that favour cattle ranchers (Moran, 1993). Deforestation accelerates dieback due to fragmentation, edge formation and their effects, increased flammability and multiplication of sources of combustion. This is important given that dieback provides feedback for lower humidity and higher temperature (Alencar et al., 2004; Fearnside, 2005; Sawyer, 2008). The dieback of forest and the warming up of the soil lead to carbon emission and further climate warming (Fearnside, s.a.). Droughts in the Amazon (especially in 1926, 1983, 1998 and 2005) have shown the high vulnerability of local economies (Marengo et al., 2008), which have developed under water abundance circumstances (CON&SEA LTDA., 2008). In 2005, the southwestern Amazon had experienced the most intense drought from the last 100 years that severely affected the provision of food, agriculture, hydroelectricity generation and river transportation (Marengo et al., 2008). Besides the sectors of hydroelectricity generation and transport, the local communities that rely on agriculture and fishery are the most affected by longer and more intense dry seasons (CON&SEA LTDA., 2008). Deforestation, drought episodes and the increased vulnerability of forest to fires (Laurance et al., 2001) also affect smallholder forest related activities, for instance the reduced availability of widely used medicinal plant species (Shanley & Luz, 2003). Fires in northern Amazon (Roraima) in 1997, 1998 and in 2003 showed to be associated with El Niño phenomena (Fearnside, s.a.), which is becoming more frequent with current climate change. Small‐scale producers and poor communities can be especially prone to considerable risk2 related to the impacts of climate change, because their economies are closely related to climate‐sensitive resources such as local water and food. Another factor that exacerbates their vulnerability is their limited adaptive capacity (Fafchaps, 2003; IPCC, 2007a).
2
Risk is considered as uncertain consequences, when the chance or probability of an outcome is known in advance (Hardaker et al., 2004; Kahan, 2008).
Chapter 1. Introduction
3
Risk is an important part of small‐holders livelihoods, which can be associated to the production process (e.g. uncertainty of weather and performance of certain crops or livestock), market (fluctuation of prices), institutional (unfavourable policy changes), governmental (changes in rules that affect production) and personal aspects (Anderson & Dillon, 1992; Hardaker et al., 2004; Kahan, 2008). When considering risk, it must be noticed that, especially amongst small‐scale farmers in developing countries, there is a tendency of them to be risk averse (Kahan, 2008). This in turn implies that they are willing to give up some expected return in order to decrease a risk (Hardaker et al., 2004). According to future climate predictions a significant risk for the Amazon region has been suggested (Marengo et al., 2008; Case s.a.; Fearnside, s.a.; IPCC, 2007a; Sampaio et al., 2007) but also high uncertainty3 (Fearnside, s.a.). However it is important to account for risk in order to increase the adaptive capacity of small‐scale producers that are the most vulnerable to such risks, which are very likely to result in net annual costs with the tendency of increasing over time as global temperatures rise (IPCC, 2007a). Identifying and understanding the sources of risk faced and how risk and risk coping strategies (adaptation) impact the producer’s livelihoods, permit a better management and provide tools for local policy making and international organisations to assess and design interventions that reduce the vulnerability of the rural population and their economies.
1.1.
Research hypotheses
The information above mentioned lead to the conception of the following hypotheses: 1.
Relative resource abundance in the Amazon does not imply low vulnerability. The opposite can be the case when local populations have traditionally adapted to stable and abundant resource flows.
2.
Under current climate conditions, climate risk is not necessarily the dominant source of risk for local producers in all primary production sectors. Market and health risks are often more relevant. Climate change is likely to alter this relationship.
1.2.
Research questions and objectives
With the above conceived hypotheses, this study will focus on these research questions: ¾ Does climate change in the Amazon represent a significant threat to local producer’s welfare and if so, which producer’s types are most likely to be vulnerable? ¾ What kind of producer’s type classification is relevant for risk analysis in the region? ¾ How is risk perceived among local producers? What are the major types of risks affecting local producers output and wellbeing?
3
Uncertainty refers to the imperfect knowledge about values or about the true probabilities that different outcomes will occur (Fearnside, s.a.; Hardaker et al., 2004; Kahan, 2008).
Chapter 1. Introduction
4
¾ What kind of responses and strategies have they developed in order to cope with such risks? In order to address these questions, this study will be conducted with the following main purposes: 1.
To analyse and classify representative producer’s types in the study area relevant for the later risk analysis
2.
To understand the perception of climatic and non‐climatic risks affecting local producers output and wellbeing
3.
To identify rural livelihood´s exposure to climate risk and to identify their related risk coping strategies
Chapter 2. Conceptual framework
2.
Conceptual framework
2.1.
Climate change impacts on smallholder livelihood systems
5
Climate change impacts on subsistence and smallholder agriculture have not been studied extensively yet. In IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (2001) this topic was not even mentioned explicitly. Recently, a growing number of studies are being conducted to research smallholder livelihood systems in developing countries. Some of these are concentrating on climate variability within a climate change context (Thomas et al., 2005a) and on the utilisation of ecosystem services (Lasco & Boer, 2006), whereas others put more emphasis on the processes of adaptation to these impacts (Thomas et al., 2005a). It is essential to consider the whole set of interrelated impacts at regional to local scales when analysing specific impacts (Adger et al., 2003). This is especially true for smallholder livelihood systems because of their complexity as they typically include a variety of interacting crop and livestock species with potential substitutions (alternative crops). Additionally, in many cases smallholder livelihoods will make use also of wild resources and non‐agricultural strategies (Easterling et al., 2007). In general terms, the strategies used to cope with extreme climatic events will include alterations in the relative importance of these various livelihood elements and their interactions. Climate change impacts on smallholder systems can be direct or indirect. The direct impacts are based on the changes mainly in temperature, CO2 levels and precipitation that affect crop yields, the productivity of livestock and fisheries and animal health (Easterling et al., 2007). Impacts can be positive or negative depending on the specific crop and therefore, may occur within the same farming system (Easterling et al., 2007). Additionally, the following physical impacts will be significant for smallholders as it has been shown in diverse studies: reduced water availability from snowcaps for irrigation systems (Barnett et al., 2005), sea level rise affecting coastal zones (Easterling et al., 2007) and more frequent landfall tropical storms (Adger et al., 2003). Furthermore, there are other environmental impacts that start to be studied, e.g. greater forest‐fire risks in the Mount Kilimanjaro ecosystem (Agrawala et al., 2003) or remobilisation of dunes in semi‐arid Southern Africa (Thomas et al., 2005b). Finally, climate change may impact smallholders indirectly through adverse effects on human health affecting labour availability for agriculture and other economic activities (e.g. tourism) (Easterling et al., 2007). The potential impacts of climate change vary from place to place, due to the different conditions, but to a great extent also because of a varying vulnerability and adaptive capacity of a specific society. Thus, it is of great importance to consider the impacts as site‐specific and moreover, case specific. The key concepts vulnerability and adaptive capacity will be examined closer in the following section.
2.2.
Vulnerability and adaptive capacity towards climate change
Vulnerability is the extent to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, that include both climate variability and extremes (IPCC, 2007). Vulnerability depends on the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change as well as on variation to which a system is exposed, the sensitivity and the ability
Chapter 2. Conceptual framework
6
of that impacted system to adapt (adaptive capacity) (IPCC, 2007; Smit & Pilifosova, 2001). An integrated vulnerability assessment approach developed by Deressa et al. (2008) and based on IPCC approach and definition is considered relevant to this study (figure 2.1), which could be interpreted in the following manner. Producers are exposed to both gradual climate change (mainly temperature and precipitation) and extreme climate change (for example, flood and drought). Exposure affects sensitivity, which means that exposure to higher frequencies and intensities of climate risk highly affects outcome (e.g. yield, income, health). Exposure is also linked to adaptive capacity. For instance, higher adaptive capacity reduces the potential damage resulting from higher exposure. Sensitivity and adaptive capacity are also interrelated: to a given and fixed level of exposure, the adaptive capacity influences the level of sensitivity (biophysical vulnerability) and vice versa. Therefore, sensitivity and adaptive capacity add up to total vulnerability, which is the end point as seen also by Kelly and Adger (2000).
Figure 2.1. Conceptual framework to vulnerability assessment (Deressa et al., 2008)
According to Deressa et al. (2008), several types of indicators or proxy variables for the assessment of vulnerability can be used. The fist class of indicators are to assess vulnerability considering household characteristics, in this case: level of education or literacy rate, age, labour unit/consumer unit, assets, land value, house value, household size, female‐headed households, drinking water source, household members, non‐farm income, diversity of income sources, food sufficiency and adjustment measures. Amongst biophysical indicators: soil conditions, current climate, drought and flood‐prone areas and vegetation are considered of importance. There are also institutional indicators like social networks (member of group or association) and institutional arrangements. The last two categories of indicators are related to the farm characteristic and economy, where livestock ownership, crop types, cropping systems, fertilizer consumption or input use,
Chapter 2. Conceptual framework
7
irrigation rate and source are related to farm characteristics. Finally income level, percentage of households below poverty line, food expenditure and infrastructure are indicators associated with the economy. Adaptive capacity has been identified as a requisite for the planning and implementation of effective adaptation strategies and to decrease the probability and extent of adverse effects of climate change (Brooks et al., 2005). Additionally, adaptive capacity, besides increasing the coping range, also enhances the ability to take advantage of opportunities and benefits resulting from climate change (e.g. longer growing seasons) (Adger et al., 2007). A variety of specific characteristics of a system, sector or community determine its adaptive capacity, namely: available technological options, available resources and its distribution, the structure of critical institutions, human capital, social capital and entitlements, access to risk spreading processes, decision‐makers abilities and the public’s perception of the source of disturbance and the significance of exposure to its local manifestations (Yohe & Tol, 2002; Smit & Pilifosova, 2001; Szlafsztein, 2009). The reinforcement of the adaptive capacity represents a practical way of coping with uncertainties and changes in climate, reducing the community’s vulnerability, and promoting sustainable development (Smit & Pilifosova, 2001). After having reviewed briefly the impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity regarding climate change the following section will provide a synthesis of the adaptation process.
2.3.
Adaptation to climate change: general understanding
Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates potential damages or benefits from opportunities related to climate change (IPCC, 2007; Smit et al., 2000; Smit & Pilifosova, 2001). As different definitions of this term can be found, Smit et al. (2000) recommend asking the following questions, which help to clarify the concepts and treatment of adaptation. Who or what adapts? (System of interest). It may regard people, economic and social sectors or activities, managed or unmanaged natural or ecological systems, or processes, practices, or structures of systems. Adaptation in what, or to what? (climate‐related stimulus or perturbations).This question can be answered in various ways referring to climate change, to change and variability, or just to climate. In general, the climatic stimulus can be included in three broad categories: global climate change (long‐term trends); variability over periods ranging from few years to several decades and isolated extreme events. How does the adaptation occur? It refers to the processes and outcomes, which can be passive, reactive or anticipatory; spontaneous or planned, etc. These three elements together encompass the overall question “what is adaptation” by first, specifying the system of interest (who or what adapts), then the climate‐related stimulus (adaptation in what, or to what?) and finally the processes and outcomes involved (how adaptation occurs). This identification exercise should also include the additional step of evaluation, to be able to judge the value of potential adaptation (how
Chapter 2. Conceptual framework
8
good is the adaptation) (Figure 1). The basis for the evaluation of adaptations can be benefits, costs, equity, urgency, efficiency and implementability (Smit et al., 2000).
NON‐CLIMATIC FACTORS & CONDITIONS
Figure 2.2. Adaptation to climate change and variability (Modified from Smit et al., 2000)
There is a tendency of many authors attributing relative small importance to the non‐ climatic forces. This can be misleading because adaptation, generally, occurs as a result of the interaction of several climatic and non‐climatic factors. Depending on the specific case, the non‐climatic factors, especially social and economical, can be even of more importance. The most important features of climate change for vulnerability and adaptation are those associated to variability and extremes and not just changed average conditions. Most sectors, regions and communities have the ability to adapt to changes in averages conditions, especially if they are gradual. However, these communities have less capacity to adapt to changes in the frequency and / or extent of conditions other than average, particularly extremes (Smit & Pilifosova, 2001).
2.4.
Types of adaptation
Diverse geographical scales and social agencies are involved in the adaptation process. Individuals, private decision makers and public agencies or governments may undertake adaptations in response to the impact of extreme events, at times anticipating the change, but frequently responding to specific events. Thus, they can be autonomous or planned (Smit & Pilifosova, 2001). Human systems will be inclined to adapt autonomously (spontaneously) to changes in climate conditions (Smit & Pilifosova, 2001), which does not represent a conscious
Chapter 2. Conceptual framework
9
response to climatic stimuli but “is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems” (IPCC, 2007). Over the centuries various strategies to handle climatic risks have been developed. However, damage resulting from climatic variations and extremes is considerable and increasing in some sectors. This shows that autonomous adaptation alone is insufficient to offset the impacts related to temporal climatic variability and the ecological, social, and the economic costs that result from relying on this reactive form of adaptation (Smit & Pilifosova, 2001). Planned anticipatory adaptation, referred as proactive, offers a potential to decrease vulnerability and identify opportunities related to climate change. This form of adaptation aims at increasing the adaptive capacity by making use of institutions and policies in order to create or enhance conditions, permitting an effective adaptation and facilitating investment in new technologies and infrastructure (Smit & Pilifosova, 2001).
2.5.
Limits and barriers to adaptation
There are obviously also limitations and impediments to adaptation. First, a high adaptive capacity does not automatically result in actions towards the reduction of vulnerability, for example, even though a high capacity to adapt to heat stress with relatively cheap adaptations exists, citizens in urban areas in many places in the world continue to be exposed to high levels of mortality (Adger et al., 2007). Second, there are considerable constraints that limit adaptation, which include the limited capacity of natural systems to adapt to the magnitude and rate of climate change, plus financial, technological, cognitive, behavioural and socio‐cultural limitations (Adger et al., 2007). These limitations and the costs of adaptation are presently unclear, partly due to the fact that effective adaptation measures rely strongly on specific, geographical and climate risk determinants as well as political, institutional and financial barriers (IPCC, 2007a). After reviewing the key concepts relevant to his thesis, a characterisation of the study area is presented in the next section.
Chapter 3. Study area
3.
10
Study area
This study was carried out in Alenquer (Baixo Amazonas), which physical and socio‐ economic characteristics are presented as follows in this section.
3.1.
Physical characteristics
3.1.1 Geographical location Alenquer belongs to the mesoregion of Baixo Amazonas and is part of the “Calha Norte” Region (figure 3.1) and to the microregion of Santarém, at the left bank of the Amazonas River. The municipality covers an extent of 22 282 km² (IBGE, 2007) and is bordered by the Almeirim Municipality on the north, Monte Alegre on the east, Santarém on the south and Óbidos and Curúa on the west (IPAM, 2008) as displayed in figure 3.1. The Calha Norte region is located between latitudes 2°N and 2°S and between longitudes 53°W and 57°W, including the micro‐regions of Óbidos, Santarém and Almeirim. It has a total area of 280 490 km², which corresponds to 22.44% of the total area of the Pará State. This region is bordered by the Solimões/Amazonas River on the south and neighbour country’s frontiers on the north (CON&SEA LTDA., 2008).
PARÁ PARÁ
Alenquer
Figure 3.1. Calha Norte region (CON&SEA LTDA, 2008; ANA, 2007)
3.1.2 Climate The temperature is relative high along the whole year with a mean of 25.6°C, maximum of 30.9°C and a minimum of 22.5°C. Relative humidity is high with values between 79% and 92%. Annual pluviometric precipitation is 2 000 mm. There are two well defined seasons: 1) from December until July, with abundant rain and 2) from August to November, which
Chapter 3. Study area
11
is considered dry season with monthly precipitations below 60 mm (EMATER, 2008). According to the Köppen classification of climate, the Alenquer Municipality belongs to the Am (Equatorial Monsoon) category (Grieser et al., 2006).
3.1.3 Hydrology The principal rivers of the Municipality are: Amazonas River (south), which limits with the Municipality of Santarém with their lakes, islands, etc. and Curúa River that is born in the Municipality and cuts its territory from north to south, where a complex system of waterfalls and springs form the landscape: Cachoeirinha, Cajuti, Benfica, Japi, Brigadeiro, Cumaru, Tracajá, Três Botas, Birimbau, Ariramba, Frieira e do Pilão (IPAM, 2008).
3.1.4 Land cover There are two important main subsets of forest for this area, namely: the Terra Firme (TF) forests, which occupy most of the high lands and Várzea (VA) forests along the river flood plain systems (De Leite et al., 2007). The TF host a great variety of plant species, including the castanheira that is frequent in areas where soils are less acidic. The VA area is lower and more humid and palm trees and herbaceous vegetation are common.
Figure 3.2. Typical landscapes of TF (top) and VA (bottom)
Figure 3.2 displays typical landscapes of terra firme (top row) and the várzea (bottom row). In the TF region, anthropogenic activity has strongly formed a cultural landscape
Chapter 3. Study area
12
considering that the potential vegetation of the whole area is tropical forest. The pictures of the várzea were taken during the severe flood event in March 2009. In figure 3.3, land cover for the Brazilian Legal Amazon including the study region (red box) is displayed.
Figure 3.3. Land cover map of the Brazilian Legal Amazon for the year 2000 (De Brito Carreiras et al., 2005)
Significant areas in the study region are used for agriculture and pastures. The natural biome in equilibrium with the current climatic conditions and without human influence would be tropical forest for the whole study area and nearly all of Pará State. However, human activity in the area has resulted in significant deforestation, in order to gain surfaces for agriculture and livestock production. The deforestation rates for the whole state of Pará between 1988 and 2008 are displayed in figure 3.4. Average deforestation rate over the past twenty years was about 5 700 km2yr‐1. In 2004 deforestation reached a maximum of over 8 500 km2yr‐1 and has been decreasing in the following years to an estimated 5 180 km2yr‐1 in 2008.
Chapter 3. Study area
13
10000
6000
2
km yr
‐1
8000
4000 2000 0 88a 89 90 91 92 93b 94b 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05c 06c 07c 08d Years
Figure 3.4. Deforestation rates in Pará, 1988 – 2008; where a = Average between 1977 and 1988; b = Average between 1993 and 1994; c = Yearly consolidated rates & d = Estimated rate (Based on data from INPE, 2009)
Figure 3.5. Landsat image of the deforestation in the northern Area of Amazon River (Alenquer) (INPE/PRODES, 2006).
3.2.
Socio‐economic characteristics
3.2.1 Population The last census from IBGE (2007) counted 52 661 inhabitants living in the Alenquer Municipality, while the whole Baixo Amazonas region had 323 688 inhabitants, showing an increase of 25.92% respect to the period between 1991 and 2000. This increase is relative low in comparison with the one experienced in the Pará State (46.45% for the same period) (figure 3.6). For Alenquer, the rate is even lower where an increase of only 9.9% has been registered. Only 4.47% of the total population of the whole State live in this area (IBGE, 2007).
Chapter 3. Study area
14
Figure 3.6. Evolution of the population in Alenquer (IBGE, 2008)
The demographic density for Alenquer is of 1.15 habitant km‐² (2007), which is also lower compared with that of Pará (5.81 habitant km‐²). Most of the population within this region lives in rural areas (IBGE, 2007).
3.2.2 Economic activities Family agriculture plays an important role in the region, because it is responsible for a considerable part of the production of rice, beans, corn and cassava. These products are of popular consumption and mostly come from this kind of agriculture, which generates income and employment, thus being of great importance for the country (CON&SEA LTDA., 2008). Amongst the agricultural activities, it is of great importance the production of cassava flour (IPAM, 2008). Other commercial products such as jute, soybean, pineapple, watermelon, banana, cocoa, coconut, citrus trees, among others are regionally produced (IPAM, 2008). Cattle‐raising in the region is experiencing growth (figure 3.7), which is part of the phenomena affecting the whole Amazon region since more than 15 years ago (CON&SEA LTDA., 2008).
Chapter 3. Study area
15
Figure 3.7. Evolution of livestock production for the municipalities in the Caha Norte region in 2001/2005 (Produção Pecuária Municipal – IBGE. In CON&SEA LTDA., 2008)
Dense and rich forests are abundant in the Baixo Amazonas region, where species with high commercial value, rare extracts, rubber, latex, oils and vegetable resin, besides wild animals and the biggest mineral reserve of the country are found. Extractive production is still significant in the Pará State (timber, açaí fruit (Euterpe oleracea), brazilnut (Bertholletia excelsa), cumaru almond (Dipteryx odorada), vegetable coal, firewood and palm heart). Wood extraction is the base of the economy in most of the municipalities in Pará, surpassed only by the mineral activity (CON&SEA LTDA., 2008). The Baixo Amazonas region has a vast extension of várzea. These areas are one of the most important environments for fishing in continental waters worldwide. That is one main reason to explain why fishery plays a very important role in the economy of this area. 1 400 fish species are known in the region, from which only around 400 are commercially exploited. Fish is the main source of protein for the communities living in the region, where the major fish consumption per capita in the world was registered (Isaac et al., 2008). Fishing occurs in the form of subsistence fishing, commercial fishing, ornamental fishing and sport fishing (CON&SEA LTDA., 2008). The main economic activities in the Alenquer Municipality include permanent and temporary crops, as well as timber and non‐wood forest product (NWFP) extraction, cattle farming and fishing. A simplified scheme for agricultural activities for this region in TF and is presented in figure 3.8.
Chapter 3. Study area
16
-------------EXTRATIVISMO------------
Figure 3.8. Simplified scheme for agriculture (roçado) in areas of Terra Firme (Alenquer)
Chapter 3. Study area
17
In addition to the simplified scheme for agriculture activities in Alenquer, according to field interviews, a classification of producer’s type according size of land used for agriculture is displayed in table 3.1. According to this classification, there are five important types of producers in the agriculture scheme, where 35% (tendency to increase) represent those producers with bigger land size units for agriculture with focus on cattle farming. Table 3‐1 Producer’s type classification according size of land used for agriculture Producer 's type
Size of land unit for agriculture
% of producers within the Municipality of Alenquer
10 tarefas4 (create a bigger area to Agriculture with focus on cattle be later converted into pasture, 35 (tendency to increase) without leaving place for secondary farming forest "capoeira") Subsistence agriculture
2 tarefas
20
Subsistence agriculture that also sell 8 tarefas part of their production
20
Specialists in cassava
20 tarefas (but part of it is permanent land for agriculture)
25
Agriculture in várzea
2 ‐ 4 tarefas
n.a.
Additionally, trends shows the higher importance of the temporary crops along the last period of years since 1994 (figure 3.9), including cassava, corn, rice, beans, jute and watermelon (figure 3.10 & 3.11), where cassava is the most important crop in terms of subsistence purposes and commercialisation (figure 3.10 & 3.11). Trends regarding importance in production for the Municipality, in figure 3.9, show that the second category of products corresponds to timber & NWFP. For the purpose of this study, just NWFP are taken into account, where the most important ones in terms of production since 1990 are brazilnut, followed by charcoal and cumaru (figure 3.12).
4
1 Tarefa = 0.25 ha
Chapter 3. Study area
18
200,000 Permanent crops Temporary crops
Total production (ton)
Timber & NWFP
150,000
100,000
50,000
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Years
2007
Figure 3.9. Tendency of production within the Alenquer Municipality, 2000 – 2007 (Based on data from IBGE ‐ Produção da Extração Vegetal e da Silvicultura/ Produção Agrícola Municipal, 2009) Rice Corn Beans
Jute (fibre)
Mandioc
Figure 3.10. Temporary crops (planted area, ha) 1994 – 2007 (Based on data from IBGE ‐ Produção Agrícola Municipal, 2009)
Chapter 3. Study area
19
150,000 Rice
Beans
Production (ton)
100,000
Cassava
Watermelon
50,000
Corn
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Years
Figure 3.11. Tendency of production of temporary crops, 1994 – 2007 (Based on data from IBGE ‐ Produção Agrícola Municipal, 2009) Cumaru (almond) Açaí Charcoal (green)
Brazilnut
Figure 3.12. Non‐wood forest production 1994 – 2007 (Based on data from IBGE ‐ Produção da Extração Vegetal e da Silvicultura, 2009)
Continuing analysing production, the most important permanent crops, in terms of planted area are cacao, banana, avocado, coconut, mamão (type of papaya), coffee beans, rubber, citrus, respectively (figure 3.13). While the tendency regarding produced quantities shows that citrus are the most important permanent crops.
Chapter 3. Study area
20 Mamão Coco‐da‐baía
Orange
Avocado
Coffee beans Banana
Cacau (almond) Rubber
Figure 3.13. Permanent crops (planted area in ha) 1994 – 2007 (Based on data from IBGE ‐ Produção Agrícola Municipal, 2009)
In terms of value generated for those products already mentioned, trends in the last years show also temporary crops as the most important for generation of income, being cassava the dominant product, followed by corn, rice, beans and others (IBGE, 2009). As second important, permanent crops, especially banana, orange and cocoa stand out. Finally, considering values obtained for non‐wood forest products, brazilnut production gives the highest values, being also cumaru a product with increasing importance in the last years. In terms of cattle farming in the area, a characterisation of producers dedicated to cattle farming is displayed in table 3.2, where only general trends are shown. According to field interviews with key informants it is believed that around 60% of producers are big to medium scale livestock producers. Fisheries in Alenquer are exclusively small‐scale and low‐tech. The great variety of fish and locally developed fishing techniques as well as the poor infrastructure of the sector makes it difficult to monitor and analyse. Amazon River fisheries are affected by the seasonality of river flows that determine size and location of fish stocks. Fishing requires few investments, which allows fishers to also engage in other economic activities. In the Amazon region there is a great diversification of the family economy amongst the small‐scale fishers from VA region. For this region, the most common activity is fishing and this income is complemented with the retirement bonus they receive from government (31%). Besides those sources of income, agriculture and wages complement the income with 18% and 10% respectively (Almeida et al., 2008). The income of those families is complemented with the retirement bonus, family bonus and the fishery subsidy has gained importance. The prohibition time is set by UNIDA (15th November until 15th March) for the fishing of eight species, namely: Mapará (Hipophtalmus endentatus), Curimatá (Prochilodus nigricans), Branquinha (Curimatá amazônica), Pacú (Myleus spp.), Fura calça (Pimelodina flavipinnis), Jatuarana (Brycon spp.), Pirapitinga (Piractus brachypomus) and Aracu (Schizodon spp.). During this four months period, fishers registered in the Fisher’s Union receive a government subsidy equivalent to a minimum wage as compensation for these months. Besides this prohibition, there are three additional times where it is not allowed to fish the following species: Pirarucu (01/12 – 31/05), Acari (01/12–30/03) and Tambaqui (01/10–31/03).
Chapter 3. Study area
21 Table 3‐2. Livestock production in Alenquer Municipality
Type of producer
Nomber of animals (cattle)
Size of pasture, ha
% cattle farmers Commments within the Municipality
Big cattle farming activity
> 1 000
No limit
30% (may be over More than 6 000 animals estimated) (cattle) Compared to other Municipalities like South of Pará, these type of producers in Alenquer would belong more to a medium class 30% Many of them have many parcels of land and combine pasture from TF with pasture of VA
Medium cattle farming activity [producer that had already invested significant resources in this activity] Small cattle farming activity (specialised)
100‐1 000
75‐?
10‐15 (maybe underestimated)
10 ‐‐ 15
20%
60
25
20%
Often they have many parcels of land from where they move around their livestock
[producers that did not invest yet too much capital in this activity, but are trying to grow] Diversified producers that also have cattle
Fisheries from small‐scale sector in the Amazon has not been studied deeply due to the fact that an important part of fish is consumed locally and arrives in small ports, where no fishing statistics are carried out. This small‐scale however is very important in terms of capture and number of people depending on these activities (Almeida et al., 2008). Annual production of 2008 was estimated in 159 tons (table 3.3), where most of the unloading took place in the second semester, due of the integration of species such as Acari, Tambaqui and Tucunaré, which represent 36%, 16% and 10% from the total unloaded fish respectively (ProVarzea, 2008). Table 3‐3. Production of most important species for Alenquer (ProVarzea, 2008) Species Acari Tambaqui Tucunaré Curimatâ Salada Pescada Aruanã Tamoatá Mapará Others
Production (kg) 57 071 25 798 15 992 9 440 9 066 6 713 5 822 4 745 4 019
35.9 16.2 10.1 5.9 5.7 4.2 3.7 3 2.5
20 258
12.7
%
Chapter 3. Study area
22
Fishing occurs mainly in this region during the dry season where catfish “bagres” are caught easily in the river floodplain. In flooding period, fish in the lakes from VA with species like Mapará (Hypophthalmus spp) are caught, besides other scale fish such as Tucunaré, Tambaqui, Surubim, Pirarucu and Aracu (ISAAC et al., 2008). Flooding period is important to consider, because the activities in agriculture are then carried out in VA (figure 3.15) only where the water levels are low. During this time, some people from this region practice agriculture in the restingas, which requires intensive labour. Livestock is also left in pastures that appear close to lakes. Besides those activities fishing is also productive in this period (Almeida et al., 2008). Previously, jute was planted at the beginning of the rain period, so that the plantation would be ready when the water level would be increasing (time where not many other activities take place), therefore perfect for the harvesting. Nevertheless, with the fall of jute price, the flooding period became not very productive and fishery was then turned into the major activity (Pers. com. Maia & Celinho5).
5
Personal communication with Celinho (President of Fisher’s Union Z – 28) and Preto Maia (President of Rural Worker’s Union)
Chapter 3. Study area
23
Defeso (Prohibition ‐ 8 sp.)
Ö Ö Ö Ö Ö Prohibition (Pirarucu)
Prohibition (Acari) Prohibition (Tambaqui)
Rainy season
Less rainy time
Flooding period Drier period
Figure 3.14. Simplified scheme for agriculture and fishing in areas of várzea (Alenquer)
Ö
Most imp. fishing period
Chapter 4. Materials and Methods
4.
24
Materials and Methods
The methodology is based on the conception that climate (and weather) variability is only one source of risk, integrated in what is called a “risk profile”. Therefore, climate risk needs to be analysed considering a whole set of interrelated variables, for instance other risks such as market and personal risks and associated local adaptation strategies (Fafchamps, 2003). It is also considered important to note that there are various factors influencing the capacity to adapt to adverse conditions. Besides that, also the specific characteristics of a system, sector or community are determinant to define its adaptive capacity. Considering this conception, methods are organised in a way that would respond the research questions initially formulated. In order to answer the research question on producer’s exposure to climate risk, it was necessary to revise historical climatic information from different sources of literature. According to IUCN et al. (2009) it is of key importance to understand the climate context by knowing the anticipated impacts of climate change, current climate, related hazards affecting the study area and their impacts. Besides that, it was considered important to investigate current climate trends, projections of temperature and precipitation for the area and extreme events episodes. Also it was important to ask the producers directly whether they perceived or experienced climate related extreme events such as droughts or floods along the last years and their effects. This was achieved mainly through group interviews and to specific key informants such as a history professor with information in such issues. In order to propose a producer’s type classification relevant for risk analysis, it is necessary to first define the sample size to be analised and understand the livelihood context within different sectors of the population. In this sense, a series of actions were carried out to fulfil this purpose.
4.1.
Sample definition
During the first trip to the study area, an official presentation of the project was made to the Alenquer City Council in the area (figure 4.1), to establish initial contact with key stakeholders, to achieve a better understanding of the context and to collect initial considerations for the design of the first surveys directed to the local producers. Also, contact was made to key organisations, as the Environment Secretary, Producers Associations, Workers Union and Projects, among others, who were present during the presentation. Afterwards, several typical communities of different sectors, working with agriculture, fisheries and non‐wood forest extraction were visited on an exploratory trip to the study area (figure 4.2). In each community initial and general data was obtained in conversations with rural workers. These first conversations were used as guidance for the design of the questionnaire and the planning of the interviewing process for the next visits.
Chapter 4. Materials and Methods
25
Figure 4.1. Official presentation in the City Council from Alenquer
On this exploratory trip, information such as number of inhabitants of the different communities, maps, technical information from health agents, consultants and technicians working in the different local institutions6 was gathered. With the obtained information, a mapping of the communities in the study area was done in situ (figure 4.3), since there were no maps displaying all communities in the area. This mapping exercise was important to determine the locations of the different communities in order to plan the later field trips and to connect the statistic information with the geographic location. For this process the aid of personal of the Workers Union was of key importance.
6
ASPROEXPA, STR, EMATER, IBAM, DED, GTZ, CEPLAC, UAMA
Chapter 4. Materials and Methods
26
Figure 4.2. Exploratory trip to typical communities of different sectors
Figure 4.3. Mapping the communities in situ within the study area
After the mapping, in order to analyse and classify representative producers in the study area, three zones were divided (figure 4.4). The first zone is mainly várzea (Salvação), while the second (Camburão) and third (Pedra Redonda) are located in terra firme. This zonification was based on the stratification by IPAM (2009), where areas of subsistence agriculture, cattle production and of potential fishery were delimited for the whole region (figure 4.5). Once these three zones were settled, the sample size that guarantees representative data collection within the municipality was defined based on the information of the new map and official statistics from EMATER (2008) containing communities and their respective number of families. Subsequently, a random selection of communities was accomplished along that part of the Municipality for which official statistical information by IBGE (2007) is available (appendix I). For the sampling process, a representativity of 90% for the three zones was set, which meant 60 interviews altogether.
Chapter 4. Materials and Methods
27
2
3 1
Figure 4.4. Delimitation of the study area (IBGE, 2007 & modified by Rodrigues, 2009)
Chapter 4. Materials and Methods
28
2 3 1
Figure 4.5. Principal productive activities (IPAM, 2009)
Chapter 4. Materials and Methods
29
It was possible to reach most of the desired communities with few exceptions, achieving 46 interviews within the three zones instead of the intended 60. Results of that random sampling are presented in Table 4.1, showing that only seven households in four communities from the várzea region (zone 1) were interviewed (instead of 20 households in ten communities as statistically defined). This was due to the harmful flood episodes that displaced these communities out of the area during the study period. It was also not possible to reach Mediâ in Zone 3 for serious difficulties of road access. Table 4‐1. Communities, population and results of random sampling within the study area ZONE 1 (Salvação) Community Community Name Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
VIRA VOLTA BOCA DO ARAPIRI CABECEIRA DO AÇAÍ CACHINGUBA CARMO ILHA DO CARMO JARAQUITUBA MATO GROSSO SÃO PEDRO SURUBI‐MIRI/ BAIXO
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
BOM CUIDADO BOM FUTURO CAMBURÃO CATIITU CONCEIÇÃO DANIEL GOIANINHA MEDIÂ OLHO D ÁGUA SERRINHA TANQUES VAI QUEM QUER
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 TOTAL
AURORA BOCA NOVA CAJAZEIRA CANAÂ FORTALEZA IGARAPÉ DA RAIZ IGARAPÉ DE AREIA KM‐20 PEDRA REDONDA POLIDÓRIO PORTO ALEGRE
Population (№ of Families) 20 60 20 7 25 17 45 38 40 25 ZONE 2 (Camburão) 30 10 115 40 10 20 38 16 35 20 20 30 ZONE 3 (Pedra Redonda) 20 25 20 58 60 30 48 30 40 15 23 1 050
Number of families to interview 1 4 1 1 2 1 3 2 3 2
Achieved interviews 1 4 1 1
1 1 6 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1
1 1 6 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1
1 1 1 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 60
1 1 1 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 46
Chapter 4. Materials and Methods
4.2.
30
Livelihood assessment
In order to assess the livelihood context in the study area, a semi‐structured participative first questionnaire (appendix II) was developed to be carried when visiting the randomised selected communities. Information from the PEN – RAVA Project about Amazon Livelihoods and Environmental Network was used as reference when designing the surveys. That was done considering that as well as for this study, it was desired to generate a solid database on the degree to which communities rely on nature resources for their livelihood and to get a better understanding of the context of use and dependency of natural resources in communities (Porro, 2008; PEN, 2008). The aspects included in the designed survey of the randomly sampled household units were the basis for the later analysis considering the following aspects: a. General characterisation of the property (origin, size and age distribution within the households and possible affiliations to any association or cooperative) b. Welfare measured on durable goods: access to energy, general goods, working instruments, number and type of animals c. Commercialised and consumed production in each farm‐unit: important products that generate income and the ones important for the daily consumption and whether the production is enough for the family unit (self‐sufficiency) d. Relative importance of each source of income for the family unit, in terms of income and welfare e. Commercialisation form of the products f. Labour force (outside the farm‐unit and requirement of labour in the farm‐unit): considering also seasonality and payment g. Prioritisation of principal risks affecting local livelihoods (climatic and not climate related risks) Besides the regular questions, also interactive visualisations were developed in order to obtain better quality of data on subjective questions such as perceived risk or the subjective importance of certain activities. For example, illustrations representing activities related to income generation and welfare were used and the interviewees were given corn grains that they could distribute in different amounts to the presented activities according to their subjective importance (figure 4.6). This participative part of the interview was used in two parts. First, it was used to know how important for their income and welfare were their productive activities (agriculture, commercialisation of their products, fisheries, timber and NWFP extraction, working outside the farm‐unit, cattle farming and bonus or other government aid). Second, to understand the perception and see the importance attributed amongst the most important risks (climatic and non‐climatic) affecting their livelihoods which are: lower prices for their products, lack of transport, lost products due to lack of appropriate storage, land tenure associated risks, government policy, having people in the family willing to work but without possibility to find who pays for the job, also when they required to hire labour but none was available, diseases, labour related accidents, too much rain, too little rain, floods, accidental fires, pest or animal diseases and others. These risks were considered by the producers in the exploratory first field trip as significant, for that reason they were
Chapter 4. Materials and Methods
31
included in the questionnaire to obtain more detailed information on the perceived importance of these risks.
Figure 4.6. Participative part to find out the importance of income sources and risks among the producers
Once the survey was concluded and all information desired collected, a MS Access database (CD attached as livelihood assessment and general classification of producers) was developed to store the information and to facilitate easy access to it for the later analysis.
4.3.
Producer’s classification
Producers were divided into different categories in order to have homogenous groups that can be analysed later in‐depth through a second process of detailed surveys that were relevant for the risk analysis. In order to create these categories, two main aspects were considered. The first was related to a welfare assessment and the second to the degree of diversification within their livelihoods. Welfare (regarded as degree of poverty according to
Chapter 4. Materials and Methods
32
Kelly & Adger, 2000; Deressa et al., 2008) and diversification (regarded as diversity of income sources for Deressa et al., 2008) are considered for many authors as some important indicators for the assessment of vulnerability. The welfare index was based on the possession of durable goods and possession of animals. Only goods that were common to all people were taken into account. For that, fishing devices were not considered because they are used only by fishers, and could thus not be taken into account for a common base comparison. For the classification process itself (welfare) two different methods were used. First, STATA Software was used for the classification of representative producer types relevant for risk analysis using principal component analysis (PCA)7. Second, real market prices for all those items considered in this analysis were registered in the area, so that it was possible to create at the same time another subjective index (appendix III), which is based on points assigned to each item (considering their price). Through this, it was possible to compare the results with those of the PCA to achieve better results. Both methods were used twice, once considering the possession of animals and the second time excluding animals. Results for the PCA indexes that were used as the base for the categorisation in terms of welfare are presented later on in the results section. The index was then used to separate the households into two groups: lower welfare index and higher welfare index, as a result of the obtained ranking amongst the interviewed people. On the other hand, the diversity index was calculated by counting the income sources of each household. However, it was considered that income sources with a stated relative importance of less than ten percent were to be neglected, and are thus not considered in the index. These criteria were chosen because it was considered important to analyse and compare a group with higher welfare status versus other with lower status, as well as highly diversified producers versus those more specialized. Finally, this resulted in the following categories: 1. Lower welfare index + less diverse; 2. Lower welfare index + more diverse; 3. Higher welfare index + less diverse and 4. Higher welfare index + more diverse. Producers with fewer assets (poorer) are expected to be less prepared to cope with risk than asset richer producers. The same is expected to be true for producers that are highly specialised compared to those having diversified sources of income and welfare.
4.4.
Risk analysis and adaptation to climate related risks
Once the representative types of producers were already classified, a second more detailed series of four questionnaires (appendix IV) were designed (agriculture, NWFP extraction, fisheries and other risks), mainly in order to obtain detailed information to assess vulnerability for each category.
7
Principal Components are a set of extracted latent variables from the original set. The principal component is assumed here to represent a Wealth Index (WI). It can explain the majority of the variance of the original household assets. The assumption herewith is that “wealth” is what causes the greatest variation in the data. This can be better perceived by looking at typical right skewed income distributions. In our case one can imagine only a few households owning a “washing machine” pushing the distribution to the right, increasing variance and in doing so increasing their score on the WI.
Chapter 4. Materials and Methods
33
This second series of questionnaires was more in‐depth and about two hours were needed for each household (figure 4.7). Representative households of each producer’s type were chosen. It was desired to achieve three in‐depth detailed surveys for every producer’s type. In that way a total of 12 surveys were initially planned. These interviews were carried out with the purpose of identifying the specific behaviour of each representative producer of each category, in terms of their perception towards extreme events or climate‐related risks, their effect on commercialised output, as well as their risk coping strategies. Some key questions were related to their experienced loss related to climatic risks, frequency, trends, period, and what did they do to cope with it. If they perceived some climate related risks as significant, later they were asked to rank the two more important risks and for each one, whether they would be willing to pay in case an insurance scheme would exist to cover losses due to such risks. Additionally, questions on the kind of support they consider important (in case those above mentioned risks occurred) were asked. Also, it was inquired directly whether they consider that a community effort could ameliorate such situation. Another part was directed to understand general agricultural, NWFP and fisheries issues, as for example normal crop output (in the case of agriculture), usual yield in a specific time, minimal and maximal yields and their frequency in the past ten years. Also, questions were asked to know price fluctuations, minimal, maximal and most frequent prices obtained and their frequencies. Besides that, it was necessary to ask labour requirement for the activities in each sector, determining that way indirectly the annual calendar of activities, and whether it is required hiring external workers. Finally it was also important to know the costs of inputs used in each activity. In the case of fisheries, extra questions on types of caught fish, characteristics of their means of transport, fishing devices, fishing effort (number of trips, frequency, people involved, among others) were made. Also group interviews with key informants of producer’s cooperatives and government institutions were carried out to verify specific data gathered in the field work.
Chapter 4. Materials and Methods
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Figure 4.7. Second series of in depth interviews
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
35
5.
Results and analysis
5.1.
Climate change in Brazil and the Amazon
5.1.1 Current climate trends During the 20th century significant changes in precipitation amounts have been observed in parts of South America, where the change patterns of climatic extremes showed to be consistent with a general warming process (Magrin et al., 2007). Some current trends for Brazil and specifically for the Amazon region reported by the IPCC are shown in table 5.1. Table 5‐1. Current climatic trends for Brazil (Based on Magrin et al., 2007) Current climate trends
Period
Change
Precipitation (%)
Amazon – northern/southern (Marengo, 2004)
1949‐1999
−11 to −17/−23 to +18
Mean temperature (°C/10 years)
Amazon (Marengo, 2003)
1901‐2001
+0.08
Maximum temperature (°C/10 years)
Brazil – south (Marengo & Camargo, 2007)
1960‐2000
+0.39 to +0.62
Minimum temperature (°C/10 years)
Brazil – south (Marengo & Camargo, 2007)
1960‐2000
+0.51 to +0.82
Brazil – Campinas and Sete Lagoas (Pinto et al., 2002) 1890‐2000
+0.2
Brazil – Pelotas (Pinto et al., 2002)
1890‐2000
+0.08
Sea‐level rise (mm yr )
Brazil – several ports (Mesquita, 2000)
1960‐2000
+4.0
‐1
While in southern Brazil significant increases in precipitation were observed during the 20th century (Magrin et al., 2007), in the northern parts of Amazon they have decreased considerably (‐11 to ‐17%) between 1949 and 1999 (table 5.1). Also a general warming process was observed in Brazil during the last century with a registered increase of 0.08°C per decade in the Amazon.
5.1.2 Projected temperature and precipitation changes As mentioned earlier, a warming process and changes in precipitation patterns during the past century have been observed in Latin America, including Amazon. In this section climatic projections for Amazon, based on different models are discussed. Common to the models is the use of four different scenarios established by the IPCC, the so called SRES8.
8
A1 = rapid economic growth; B1 = global environmentally sustainability; A2 = regionally oriented economic development; B2 = local environmental sustainability.
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
36
In the 4th Assessment of IPCC, Magrin et al. (2007) estimated the projected temperature and precipitation changes for South America and specifically for Amazon (table 5.2) using seven different GCMs and the four SRES scenarios. Table 5‐2. Projected temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) changes for the Amazon region (Modified from Magrin et al., 2007) Changes in temperature (°C)
2020
2050
2080
Amazon
Dry season
+0.7 to +1.8
+1.0 to +4.0
+1.8 to +7.5
Wet season
+0.5 to +1.5
+1.0 to +4.0
+1.6 to +6.0
Change in precipitation (%)
Amazon
Dry season
−10 to +4
−20 to +10
−40 to +10
Wet season
−3 to +6
−5 to +10
−10 to +10
Scenarios for the Amazon consistently predict temperature increases during the next decades, following also the registered trend during the 20th century. However, the amount of this increase is subject to growing uncertainty the further the predictions are set in the future. In the following figures 5.1 and 5.2, climatic projections for precipitation and temperature in the Amazon region ‐ Brazil for the period between 2071 – 2100 can be observed. This projections use regional models in two emission scenarios from IPCC (B2 –low emission and A2 – high emission). A precipitation decrease of 60% in summer and 20‐60% in winter is projected by three local models for the period of 2071‐2100 considering a high emission scenario. In a low emission scenario, the predicted decreases are somewhat less, that is 40‐60% and 20‐40% in summer and winter, respectively (figure 5.2). The same models project a temperature increase of over 6°C in summer and 4‐6°C in winter in the A2 scenario. In the low emission scenario an increase of 2‐4°C and 3‐4°C are projected for summer and winter, respectively (Nobre et al., 2007). However, there is a high uncertainty in the climate projections (Marengo et al., 2007; Szlafsztein, 2009; Obregón & Marengo, 2007). Problematic is not only the uncertain development regarding possible future emission scenarios, but also significant differences among different employed models (Obregón & Marengo, 2007). Figure 5.3 to 5.6 illustrate these considerable differences amongst various models for projected precipitation and temperature changes considering the A2 and the B1 scenario for the period 2071‐2100.
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
37
Figure 5.1. Projected precipitation changes in the Brazilian Amazon for the period 2071‐2100 (top ‐ high emission scenario: summer left and winter right; 2nd row: bottom ‐ emission scenario: summer left and winter right) (CEPTEC / INPE, 2007)
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
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Figure 5.2. Projected temperature changes in the Brazilian Amazon for the period 2071‐2100 (top ‐ high emission scenario: summer left and winter right; 2nd row: bottom ‐ emission scenario: summer left and winter right) (CEPTEC / INPE, 2007)
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
39
Figure 5.3. Projections of precipitation changes (mm d‐1) for South America between 2071 and 2100 (A2 scenario) compared to the base period 1961‐1990 (Nobre et al., 2007)
Figure 5.4. Projections of precipitation changes (mm d‐1) for South America between 2071 and 2100 (B1 scenario) compared to the base period 1961‐1990 (Nobre et al., 2007)
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
40
Figure 5.5. Projections of temperature changes (°C) for South America between 2071 and 2100 (A2 scenario) compared to the base period 1961‐1990 (Nobre et al., 2007)
Figure 5.6. Projections of temperature changes (°C) for South America between 2071 and 2100 (A2 scenario) compared to the base period 1961‐1990 (Nobre et al., 2007)
The figures above clearly show the differences in the projected precipitation and temperature changes between the different models. In some cases (especially with precipitation) the differences amongst models are higher than differences between scenarios. This highlights the problematic of uncertainty and future predictions in the climate change context.
5.1.3 Climate related impacts Climatic change is already affecting several sectors of human activities in the area of public health, agriculture, forestry, water resources and coastal areas (Obregón & Marengo, 2007; Szlafsztein, 2009). Some negative impacts associated to strong precipitation resulted in the increase of the flood frequency of the Amazon River (Callède et al., 2004); floods in the Mamoré basin and the retreat of glaciers in Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador for the changes in temperature and humidity (Vuille et al., 2003).
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
41
Other impacts related to extreme events on human health are presented in Table 6, where in general it can be observed that such events increase the occurrence of epidemics.
Table 5‐3. Impacts on human health related to extreme events (based on data from Magrin et al., 2007) Location
Extreme Event
Health Impact
Source
Coastal regions of Colombia and Venezuela
El Niño (dry/hot)
Epidemic malaria
Poveda et al., 2001b; Kovats et al., 2003
Colombia and Guyana
Drought
Epidemics
Gagnon et al., 2002
Coastal region of Peru
Flooding
Epidemics
Gagnon et al., 2002
Brazil
Intense rainfall and flooding after prolonged droughts Drought
Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome
Williams et al ., 1997; Espinoza et al., 1998; Pini et al., 1998; CDC, 2000 Confalonieri, 2003
El Niño La Niña
Visceral leishmaniasis Franke et al., 2002 Cutaneous leishmaniasis Cabaniel et al., 2005
Flodding
Leptospirosis
Semi‐arid north‐eastern Brazil Bahia State (Brazil) Venezuela Brazil
Visceral leishmaniasis
Ko et al., 1999; Kupek et al., 2000
Risks in the Brazilian agriculture sector resulting from climate change are foreseen in the next decades. Studies made by Embrapa & Unicamp (2008) predict that an increase in temperature in this country will reduce favourable areas for the following crops: soybean, coffee, corn, rice, beans and cotton resulting in possible damage of R$ 7.4 billions (109) in 2020. Exceptions are sugar cane that would have space to expand and double their production and cassava, which even if loosing planting space in the northeast region, it can be planted in other regions within the country.
5.1.4 Extreme events According to Magrin et al. (2007), Latin America has suffered climate‐related impacts of increased El Niño occurrences during the last three decades and the frequency of climate‐ related disasters increased by 2.4 times between the periods 1970‐1999 and 2000‐2005. In this time, two extreme El Niño (1982/83 and 1997/98) and other extreme events occurred contributing significantly to the increased vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, landslides, etc. (Magrin et al., 2007; Obregón & Marengo, 2007). Of the events between 2000 and 2005, just 19% were economically quantified corresponding to losses close to US$ 20 billion (Magrin et al. 2007). Below some selected extreme events and their impacts (period 2004‐2006) from Magrin et al. 2007) in Brazil are presented. ¾ In 2004, the first hurricane ever observed in South Atlantic demolished more than 3 000 houses in southern Brazil and severe flooding hit eastern Amazon affecting thousands of people. ¾ Droughts in 2004 – 2006: central and south‐eastern part of the Amazon was affected, which was probably associated to warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic; while in Rio Grande do Sul reductions of 65% and 56% in soybean and
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
42
maize production were registered. During the 2001 ENSO period, around one‐third of the Amazon forests became susceptible to fires, which can be exacerbated because of the extension of a dry period in this area. Climatic projections show the possibility of the intensification of droughts and flooding extremes occurring during El Niño events (Obregón & Marengo, 2007). This combined the projected warming of water in the Atlantic Ocean would result in a decrease of precipitation and an extension of dry season in a big part of the Amazon (Marengo et al., 2007; Obregón & Marengo, 2007). There is a lot of uncertainty in the observed trends of the variability of extreme weather events in Brazil due mainly to the lack of reliable information for considerable regions like Amazon. According to Obregón &Marengo (2007) projections of extreme events in Brazil for the twenty‐first century show in general, increases in temperature increases such as warmer nights, heat waves and in the indicators of rain extreme events.
5.1.5 Vegetation changes savannisation Vegetation and climate are closely related and changes in either can affect the other. As mentioned before the natural biome under current climatic conditions and without human influence would be tropical forest for the whole study area. In the figure below projections for potential biomes in the period 2071‐2100 are displayed.
Figure 5.7. Potential biomes for the period 2071‐2100 considering scenario A2 (Nobre et al., 2007)
As it can be observed in figure 5.7, 13 of 15 models predict a significant process of savannisation for the Pará State and partly also the study area within the next 60‐90 years. This predicted process only considers climate driven changes and not human induced land cover changes. This is also consistent with the IPCC report that states that up to 40% of the Amazonian forests could be affected radically by even a minor precipitation decrease, with the possible result of rapid change in vegetation, hydrology and regional climate system (Nobre et al., 2007).
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
43
5.1.6 Perception of climate related risks and their impacts in the study area In a group consultation, a list of main events including droughts, floods, fires related to climate change events in the perspective of community members from Alenquer Municipality was constructed (table 5.4). Community member participating in this consultation included some authorities, producer’s representatives, teachers, reporters from this region. According to data from Civil Defence (the Brazilian governing body responsible for emergency response), this year 2009 was the worst flood episode registered in the last sixty years. Some other extreme events that are registered in this area include extreme floods in 1918 and then in 1953, which was the worst episode before this actual one. This flood event affected directly more than 400 families. Hundreds of them needed to be evacuated from their homes with significant losses. The levels of water in the Amazon River were 9 m above their normal level (Ximango, 2009). As this event occurred during the carrying out of this study, other directly observed impacts included reduced water quality, disease (especially children), crop damage/loss, income loss, loss of savings (fishers). At a first glance, the group that resulted more vulnerable when this catastrophe took place were those families living in the VA region (Zone 1). ANA (2009) recorded that the levels of water from Amazon River in Óbidos (Baixo Amazonas) surpassed previous maximum levels registered as displayed in figure 5.8. For example, it can be observed that months from March to June levels of water kept increasing reaching 8.42 m in June, considering a level of 7.7 m for this river as of “flood alert”.
Figure 5.8. Levels of water in Amazon River (Óbidos – Baixo Amazonas region) (ANA, 2009)
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
44
Table 5‐4. Summary of the most important perceived climate event and their impacts by community members in Alenquer Climate risk
Perceived impacts
Floods 1918†, 1919, 1950, 1955, 1970
1953†
People from VA needed to move to communities in TF Water shortage, energy breakdown, household food insecurity, damage to dwellings, evacuation from families living in VA Crop loss (agriculture) ‐ "terra brejada" , produce shortage of for instance cassava flour resulting in price increases Honey production loss
1974, 1975, 1976 2006 2009†
General:
Dying of turtle population (Oribí, Tracajará, Pichiú) When the flood comes quickly, appearance of a weed that kills cattle, loss of pasture, higher incidence of snakes attacking livestock ‡ Increase sediment transport in river bank (erosion ‐ deposition process) ‡
Drought 1982 (stronger)
1992
Loss of livestock (lack of water)
2005
Reduced fish stocks (overfishing) ‡ Fish stocks reduced (even the more resistant fish species died: Curimata, Acarí, Tamuatá, Jijú) Crop loss
‡
2006 General: Reduced rain 1981
Crop loss
Fires 1980
Damage to dwellings
Increased intensity of rain (rainy season) 2005 ‐ 2006 more intense in comparison to previous years Increased temperature General:
Dying of fish in some lakes due to reduction of levels of oxygen in water
† Ximango, 2009; ‡Interview to local historian (Prof. Aurea Nina)
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
5.2.
45
Livelihood assessment
5.2.1 General household characterisation In the next section general trends and other results based on the 46 interviews from a total of 26 communities along three zones are presented and analised. Within the first part of the questionnaire, questions on origin of the producers, number of families living there, age and whether they belong or not to any association or cooperative were asked. In figure 5.9 the average age distribution of a local household is shown. The average family in the studied area has around six members. Of these, on average 2.5 member are over 18 years and 2.3 ten years or less. The proportion of elderly (over 60) and the 10 to 18 years old is considerably smaller (0.6 and 0.5 members on average, respectively). Age (years)
0.6 2.3 2.5
≤ 10 >10<18
0.5
≥ 18 ≥ 60
Figure 5.9. Average age distribution amongst households
Most of the interviewed families are originally from the Alenquer Municipality or an area within the Northern part of Brazil (91.30%), the rest came from the Northeast (especially Ceará). About three quarters belong to an association or cooperative, being the most popular the STR (Rural Workers Union). Besides that, other associations included that of inhabitants of certain communities (Camburão, APAS, Canãa, Goianinha, Sacrificio), farmers unions (Ambrosia, da Vila de Camburão, Sacrificio) and “Fishers Union Z – 28”. In terms of land property, around 57% of the interviewed families stated that land tenure was not regularised, while 37% had a proper title. The remaining 6% live on public lands. Regarding the non‐regularised areas, the majority confirmed to have bought their land and have a receipt “recibo de compra”, but this really officially has no value. Some people mentioned, when asking about land tenure that they lived in a public regulated settlement (“Asentamentos”). In this context, according to Rodrigues & Szlafsztein (2009) there are four settlements within this Municipality, which were Curumu, Camburão I, Camburão II and Salvação. The first one is oriented to production of cassava flour and also small‐scale production of corn, rice and beans. The second settlement is oriented mainly to the production of citrus, livestock. The third one has a combination of brazilnut extraction together with livestock and agriculture. Finally, Salvação has small‐scale fisheries and subsistence agriculture as main activities. The information about land size during the interviews was provided in four different units (“tarefas”, “lotes”, hectares and square meters) that was transformed all into hectares in order to create a common basis for comparison. The transformations used are based on
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
46
the local standards: 1 lote = 50 Tarefas
1 ha = 10 000 m2
1 ha = 4 tarefas
However, due to the fact that some people use the local terms “tarefa” and especially “lote” disaccording to the common standard there is a high probability that these calculations are not accurate. Land size was categorized based partly on a previous field characterization. In this study five categories were created according to results obtained in the first interview: 1) 0 ‐ 0.5 ha; 2) >0.5 ‐ 2.5 ha; 3) >2.5 – 5 ha; 4) >5 ‐ 12.5 ha and 5) >12.5 ha. Figure 5.10 (right) displays the distribution of these five classes among the interviewed households, while the left side of this figure shows the percentage of households having one, two or three different parcels of land.
15%
Area (ha) 0 ‐ 0.5
# of terrains 13%
1 2
52%
>0.5 ‐ ≤2.5 >2.5 ‐ ≤ 5
4%
3
15%
>5 ‐ ≤12.5 >12.5
Figure 5.10. Distribution of land size belonging to local households and number of land parcels per household
Figure above shows that over half of the interviewed households have access to more than 12.5 hectares, while about 15.22% belong to the group categorized as subsistence farmers by previous field work with maximum half a hectare. The figure shows also that most households (65.22%) have access to only one parcel of land, while 30.43% have two and just a small fraction three. In the case of the livelihoods from the VA region, Almeida et al. (2008) stated that the mean area used for agriculture in this region is of 0.75 ha, much bigger than of 0.38 which was registered as mean value for those of the TF region. Agriculture in VA focuses also in temporary crops such as beans, corn, cassava and watermelon.
5.2.2 Welfare assessment In order to be able to categorise different types of producers within the area, a welfare assessment was carried out considering several durable items, type of housing, electricity access and possession of animals. Some of the results are presented as follows. The first issue in this section considers the possession of the four most important domestic animals in the region: cattle, birds, horses and pork. The possession distribution of animals amongst the interviewed households is presented in figure 5.11.
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
47
7% 9%
4%
Cattle Possession
Horse possession
No ca ttl e
11%
43%
1 ‐ 10 ca ttl e 11 ‐ 20 ca ttl e 21‐ 100 ca ttl e + 100 ca ttl e
26%
2%
No hors es 1‐10 hors es 11‐20 hors es
68%
+20 hors es
30%
9%
7%
15%
Bird possession
15%
33% 28%
Pork possession
11%
No bi rds
No pork
1 ‐ 10 bi rds
1‐5 pork
11 ‐ 20 bi rds
6‐10 pork
21‐ 30 birds + 30 bi rds
80%
+ 10 pork
Figure 5.11. Animal possession amongst interviewed families
Animal possession is quite heterogeneous (figure 5.11). Most households have no or just few animals, while some single households possess large quantities. In numbers this means that 43.48% of the households have no cattle, while 6.52% percent own over 100 cattle. About one third (30.43%) has between one to ten cattle. Birds are the most commonly possessed animals. These birds mainly include chicken, rooster and also some others (Angolan chicken and ducks). Only 15.22% of the households do not have any birds at all. Most have 1‐10 birds (32.61%) and 11‐20 birds (28.26%). Again a small fraction possesses a considerable amount of over 30 birds (8.70%). Horses and pork are less common as reflected by the percentages of households that do not have these animals (67.39% and 80.43%, respectively). According to Almeida et al. (2008), almost all families from VA have chicken and consume 4.2 chickens per month during the flooding period and have around 25 animals per family. When analysing the importance of animals for households, it was shown that possession of birds was more widespread than any other animals. This might be because farm birds have low price, little spatial requirements, no higher requirement for feeding them and can reproduce easily. In the case of cattle, just a small percentage of people had big amounts of cattle over 100 animals. However, it is believed that the trend is growing (seen in chapter 3) considering also the fact that for the local population, cattle is regarded as some insurance asset. For instance, it was mentioned that in cases of sickness in the family where no cash is available (for paying a doctor, medicine or a required immediate health care procedure), animals can be sold immediately and thus providing the required financial resources. This
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
48
would be not possible, when relying only on agricultural products due to the time needed to obtain monetary benefit from it (it would take many days until making cassava flour and the money in return is subjected to market oscillations that could lead to real low prices for instance). In comparison to that, livestock prices are more stable and can be obtained rapidly. For the livelihoods of VA region, as they have small number of cattle, the income coming from this sector is low and is generally spend only in case of buying land, dwellings or ships, but also sometimes it is sold to pay regular costs and of cattle maintenance. Having smaller animals (like birds) is much more common for the people in VA, because it is regarded as a source of animal protein, especially in the period where fish is scarce.
% of households
The households were also asked whether they possess certain durable items. The results are presented in figure 5.13 and were ordered in descending order according to their occurrence. 80 60 40 20
TV J ar s ur Pul ver hous i ze r (p e es t .) Bar P lant e rel ( ce r rea l) Mo t or bi k Re e frig e ra t or Wa gon Pen St e Mo re o Wh t or sa w ee l b Se w arrow i ng ma ch. P en sto DV ck (A ç D u Sto ra g de) e s hed Pum p Mo t or Wa Ante n shi ng na ma c h. flo
Ma nd
i oc
Ga s st
o ve Bi c yc l e R a Wo di o od sto ve
0
Possessions
Figure 5.12. Possession of several items amongst households
The most common items owned by the surveyed households are gas stoves (73.91%), bicycles (71.74%), radio (71.74%), wood stove (54.27%) and TV (52.17%). Also important is to mention that (36.96%) have cassava flour houses, where the most important agricultural product of the region can be processed. Fishers were also asked additionally to the goods mentioned above about the working material they possess. The results are presented in figure 5.13, again ordered descending from common to less common. Regarding the fisheries, it is important to consider that the information results from only seven households that work in this sector due to the harmful flooding episodes occurring at the time of the surveys. There are several instruments used for fishing that depend on the type of fish to be caught and the habitat of fish (lake, river, springs, etc.). Besides those common goods mentioned above, for fishers the most important fishing items are nets “malhadeira”, “arpões” (especially for catching Pirarucú (Arapaima gigas),, “espinhel”, “camaroeira” (for shrimps), “canhiços” (for all kinds of fish), “tarrafa”, “arco e flecha” (arrow and bow), “linha” (to repair their fishing nets), “tarrafa” and “isopor” (where they can store caught fish).
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
49
100
% of households
80
60
40
20
Bajara
Gas bu lbs
3-4C amaroe ira s
roeir a 1 Ca ma
1-5A rco e fl e cha
a k eros e ne La mp iã o
2-3C an oes
Isop or
Tarrafa
s 4 - 10 C a nhiço
4) La mp a ri
nh a (1 -
1 Ca no e
2 Ca nh iço s
spin he l 1 -- 5 E
eira Malhad
1 - 2 Arp ões
0
Instruments used for fishing
Figure 5.13. Instruments used by fishers
Another important question asked in the survey was whether the households have access to electricity and by which means. The results are displayed in figure 5.14.
15%
13%
Access to electricity Motor No a cces s
15% 26%
Acces s to network Acces s (not s peci fi ed)
31%
No further i nforma ti on
Figure 5.14. Access to electricity
Roughly three quarters of the households have access to electricity, while the remaining 26.09% have no access. Thirty percent access energy through the network “Rede Celpa”, 13.04% create their own electricity via motor and 15.22% did not specify the type of access. For the remaining 15.22% there is no information available. In the questionnaire, it was also of interest to find out the housing material (concrete, wood or mud), in order to help the assessment of welfare status of the interviewed families. The results are displayed in figure 5.15.
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
50
Household material
24%
Concrete hous e 9% 67%
Mud hous e Wooden hous e
Figure 5.15. Housing materials
Two thirds of houses are constructed mainly of wood, 23.91% of concrete and the rest is build with mud. These categories are not completely precise, since many houses in the area are built with two or more constructing materials. In those cases the predominant material was chosen for the categorisation. The importance of the housing material as an indicator of welfare is considered on the following assumption. Mud houses are the cheapest housing option and thus reflect relative poverty compared to the other materials. Even though, wood is also very easily available, the construction of houses requires more labour and especially additional materials (e.g. tools), while concrete buildings required higher investment to buy materials from outside.
5.2.3 Production This section presents those results of the survey that are related to the income generation and wellbeing of the households, agricultural and livestock production as well as the extraction of non‐wood forest products and fisheries. In figure 5.16 activities related to income generation and wellbeing from the surveyed households are presented.
% of households
90
60
30
er s Ot h
Co
m
me r
Ag ri c ci a ul t lis ur at e io Go n p ve r od rn ... m en t s ub W si d or ies kf Fo or re c e s t ou pr ts i od de uc t e xtr ac tio n Fi s he Ca rie tt l s e p ro du cti on
0
Figure 5.16. Activities related to income generation and wellbeing
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
51
Agriculture is the most important activity regarding income generation and wellbeing (86.96%), followed by commercialisation and selling of their products (76.09%) and government subsidies (69.57%) such as family bonus (“bolsa família”), retirement bonus, fishery subsidy during four months where fishing is not permitted (“seguro desemprego”), school subsidy (“bolsa escola”) and other wages such as teacher, health agent or from the government or as “vaqueiro” (person who looks after the cattle) from the neighbouring farms (figure 5.16). Number of income sources
2% 15%
1 2
7%
3 54% 22%
4 5
Figure 5.17. Number of income sources
The mean number of income source amongst the surveyed households is 1.9 sources. Fifty‐four percent have only one source of income, while 21.74% have two. The maximum number of sources registered was five. Regarding the different types of income sources there were seven income groups registered: agricultural products, livestock, fisheries, NWFP, government subsidies, work outside the household and others. Within the groups of agriculture and NWFP several products can be distinguished and are regarded as income generating sources of its own. The main income source were selling of cassava flour (50.00%), corn (19.57%), beans (19.57%), fish (17.39%) and rice (15.22%), as well as receiving government subsidies (13.04%) and livestock farming (10.87%). It is important to highlight that while figure 5.16 considered also wellbeing figure 5.17 only relates to money generating activities. In the next four graphs production, selling and self‐sufficiency for permanent (figure 5.18) and temporary crops (figure 5.19), livestock production (figure 5.20) and NWFP (figure 5.21) extraction are displayed. Permanent crops are, inter alia, avocado, banana, cacao, coconut, cupuaçu, goiaba, graviola, citrus, manga, amongst others.
52
25
20
15
Permanent crops 10
Producti on Sel l i ng Sel f‐s uffi ci ency
5
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0 1
No. of permanent crops in the household
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
Houshold number
Figure 5.18. Permanent crops amongst interviewed families
Some households have a significant diversity of ten or more permanent crops (28.96%), while about 45.65% of the surveyed households have maximum five different permanent crops. About 80% stated to be self‐sufficient with their crops (30.43% with every crop they produce) and about one third sell some of their harvest.
% of housholds
80
60
Legend Producti on
40
Sel l i ng Sel f‐s uffi ci ency
20
0 Mandioc
Corn
Beans
Rice
Temporary crops
Figure 5.19. Most important temporary crops amongst interviewed families
The most important temporary crops for the surveyed households are: cassava for flour production (71.74%), corn (60.87%), beans (65.22%) and rice (47.83%), which are widely produced and consumed. However, cassava flour is the only agricultural product that is sold in greater scale (63.04%) compared to the other products (19.57%, 28.26% and 15.22%, respectively). Yet, few families are self‐sufficient with these products, e.g. less than one third has, at all times, enough cassava for own consumption. Many of the interviewees manifested the need of buying such products
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
53
in certain periods where pests, bad weather or unfertile soil have diminished their own production.
% of households
100
Legend
75
Possession
50
Selling 25
Self‐sufficiency
0 Cattle
Birds
Pork
Animals
Figure 5.20. Types of animal possession amongst interviewed families
About 58% of the households own cattle, 28.26% also sell it and 21.74% stated to be self‐ sufficient. Birds are much more common (86.96%) and half of the surveyed households are self‐sufficient in birds, while 28.26% also sells them. Twenty‐two percent own pork, 15.22% stated to be self‐sufficient and only 4.35% sell pork.
% of households
60
40
Legend Extra cti on Sel l i ng
20
Sel f‐s uffi ci ency
0 Açai
Brazilnut
Cumaru
Angiroba
Non‐wood forest products
Figure 5.21. Non – wood forest products from the families living in TF (39 families)
Cumaru is considered the most important product, in terms of income generation (51.28%), followed by brazilnut (20.51%). For own consumption açai is collected by 51.28% of the families, but only 5.13% reported to sell it (figure 5.21).
% of Interviewees
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
54
20
Legend Fi s hi ng 10
Sel l i ng Sel f‐s uffi ci ency
m ru bi
an á
Su
Ar u
Tr ai rá
cu
Pi ra ru
Pa cu
Ac ai rim at á Ta m ba qu i Tr ai rã o Cu
Ar ac u
0
Fish type
Figure 5.22. Ten most important fish amongst the interviewed families
In this Baixo Amazon region, fishing can take place in river channels (where “bagres”: catfish are found) with nets and espinhéis and another part in lakes and flooding regions (Tucunaré, Pescada, Pacu, Curimatã and other fish with scales, besides Mapará). About 47.83% of the surveyed households have some kind of fishing activity, where half of them fish only for own consumption and the other half sell the fish. From those who sell fish, 63.64% are fishers from várzea, while the remaining 36.36% eventually sell fish caught in springs or small rivers close to their livelihoods. Figure 5.14 shows the ten mostly common types of fish caught by the households in the area. Other fish that were not included in the figure but were mentioned by fishers are: Tamuata, Boco, Pescada br., Jandiá, Acara, Acarawasú, Branquinha, Baiano, Mugubera, Curawasú, Cuijuba and Carawagú.
5.2.4 Labour The results of the survey regarding labour are presented in the next three figures. First, the percentage of people that work outside their household and the type of work done is showed in figure 5.23, as well as how many households hire external labour force and for what purposes (figure 5.24). Then, in figure 36 distribution of labour throughout a year is shown. Two thirds stated to work outside the own household at least some times during a year. Most work only certain month of the year outside, on average in four months of the year about 5 up to 20 days per month depending on the type of work. The most important types of work are different activities in the agricultural sector (64.52%) and work on a “Fazenda” (16.13%).
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
55
100
10%
Type of work
6%
75
Agri cul ture
3%
Do not work outs i de
%
Legend 50
Fa zenda Ca rpenter
16% 65%
Not s peci fi ed
25
Work outs i de
Ma ndi oc proces s i ng
0
Figure 5.23. Work outside the household
100
75
5%
Type of work
Do not hi re l a bour
%
Legend 50
Agri cul ture
36% 59%
Perma nent
25
Hi re l a bour
Not s peci fi ed
0
Figure 5.24. Hired labour
Slightly less than half of the households hire external labour for certain works. External work is hired on average during three months of the year. The money paid per day varies according to the work between 10 and 20R$ with an average of 16R$. 59.09% of the households require external help for agriculture related works, while 36.36% did not specify for what kind of activity they hire labour. Five percent employ labour permanently. It is important to mention, that it is common practice in the region to exchange working days instead of using monetary payment. 60 Labour
40 %
Outs i de hous ehol d Hi red
20 0 jan
feb mar apr may jun
jul
aug sep
oct
nov dec
Figure 5.25. Monthly distribution of labour
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
56
Depending on the household and on the required activities there is both outside work and hired labour throughout all months of the year. However, it is evident that in July until November there is a considerable increase compared to the rest of the year. These months are coinciding with the field work schemes of agriculture showed in detail previously in chapter 3. Additionally, it is important to mention that the agricultural scheme is different for the várzea, which depends more on the flooding regime, thus agriculture activities are possible only in the months were land appears (drier season) and for a shorter time.
5.3.
Perceived risks among all type of producers
The last topic of this first survey was to the question of how the surveyed households perceive risk. First it was asked to mention those risks regarded as significant (figure 5.26).
% of interviewees
100
75
50
25
1. L 2 . La c ow p r k o f tr i ce s an spo rt 3. Sto 4 . r a La n 5 . ge Go d‐ t ver 6 . nm e nure No n‐u en t p sed ol ic 7 . y La c labo u r k o fo f 8 . D labou rce r ise ase force s (f am il y) 9 . A 10 c ci d . T en oo ts mu 1 1. c h T o r a o li i ttl e n ra in 12 1 3. 1 4. . Fl A c Pe o c od i de st / nta An l f i im re a l di s ea se s 15. O t he rs
0
Risks
Figure 5.26. Distributions of the perceived risks affecting surveyed households
The most frequently mentioned risks are highlighted in red in figure 39. These are ’Low Prices’ (84.78%), ‘Diseases in the family’ (78.26%), ‘Accidents’ (76.09%), ‘Too much and too little rain’ (76.09% and 69.57% respectively) and ‘Pest/Animal diseases’ (73.91%). The interviewees were then asked to assign priorities to their perceived risks. The results are presented in figure 5.27 where the risks from previously presented were arranged in descending order from most frequently mentioned to less frequent.
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
57
90
Risk prioritisation
80
Pri ori ty 8
% of households
70
Pri ori ty 7
60
Pri ori ty 6
50
Pri ori ty 5
40
Pri ori ty 4
30
Pri ori ty 3
20
Pri ori ty 2 Pri ori ty 1
10
e Ot he rs
ur for c
nu re
k o f
lab o
d Fl o o
Sto ra g e
d‐ t e
Lan
Lac
Dis
Low pr i ce eas s es (f a mil y) Ac cid en ts To o m Pe uc s t/ h r An ai n im al d is e as e s To o li ttle ra Ac in cid en tal Lac fi r e k o f tr No a n‐u ns por se d t la b ou r f o Go ver rc e nm en t p oli cy
0
Rsiks
Figure 5.27. Prioritisation of perceived risks
Even though 85% perceived ‘Low Prices’ as a risk, only 13.04% regard it as a priority 1 risk. Considering the priority there are four risks that more households perceived as of number one priority: ‘Diseases in the family’ (43.48%), ‘Accidents’ (21.74%), ‘Pest/Animal diseases’ (17.39%) and ’Lack of transport’ (15.22%). In order to extract those risks that were perceived as the most important, another figure was prepared where only priorities one and two are considered (figure 5.28). 60
% of households
50 40
Risk prioritisation Pri ori ty 2
30
Pri ori ty 1 20 10
Dis
eas es (f a m Ac il y) cid L ow ents p T Pe s t/ oo m ri ces An u c im h r a Lac l dis e ai n k o a f tr s es an s po rt Fl o To o l o d i tt Lan le ra i n d ‐t A No n‐u ccid e nure se d ent a Go la bo l fi re ver ur Lac nme f orce nt k o f la poli cy bo ur for c Sto e ra g Ot e her s
0
Risks
Figure 5.28. The two most important perceived risks
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
58
When considering only risk priorities one and two the new descending order according to the perceived risk is as follows: 1) ‘Disease’ (58.70%); 2) ‘Accidents’ (45.65%); 3) ‘Low prices’ (36.96%); ‘Too much rain’ (33.61%) and ‘Pest/Animal diseases’ (28.26%). Since for the local households the own working force is decisive for the household’s welfare. Thus, if this work force is not available within the household due to disease/accidents there is no, or at least less, productive/extractive activity. The other extern factors are consequently of secondary importance, that is e.g. low prices are a small problem if there is nothing to sell.
5.4.
Producer’s classification
The producer’s classification is divided into various parts. First, the indexes for the welfare assessment are presented, followed by the income diversity index. Finally, the resulting categorisation is presented at the end of this section.
5.4.1 Welfare index Comparing the results obtained with the two different methods of assessing welfare with indices, it was possibly to verify that the categories made were valid since the results were similar. Finally, it was considered to use the FCA index considering animal possession into account for the further categorisation (table 5.5). It was regarded as important to include animals because their possession determines welfare to a big extent. That is due to their economic value and their function as capital assets.
5.4.2 Income diversity index The construction of the diversity index is presented below (table 5.6), where it is to notice that only income source of 10% or of higher importance were considered. Addressing these issues of welfare and diversification are considered key underlying factors of vulnerability, which can lead to or amplify the sensitivity to risks and the dependency of communities on sensitive resources and affect the availability and control over resources that are important to adapt to climate change. Households have between two and seven sources of income/wellbeing (table 5.6). Sixteen of the 46 families are considered to be less diversified. Based on the two indices presented below (welfare and diversity), the surveyed households were assigned into one of the below presented four groups: 1. Lower welfare index + less diverse; 2. Lower welfare index + more diverse; 3. Higher welfare index + less diverse and 4. Higher welfare index + more diverse. Results on the households belonging to each of those categories are presented in table 5.7.
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
59
Table 5‐5. Selection of representative families based on a PCA comparing points including & excluding animals Survey No. 22
Items for the principal component analysis
Survey No.
Ranking
Items for the principal component analysis
‐3.223048 Jar Stove ‐2.485065 (wood)
‐0.3501
22
‐3.422281 Jar
‐0.21524
‐0.195
6
‐2.781015 Motor
‐0.1008
20
‐2.248413 Motor
‐0.06102
42
‐2.21056
40 6 36 38 37 45 26 2 10 19 31 28 29 39 46 44 30 41 34 43 13 5 3 16 27 23 25 7 24 1 4 8 11 33 14 32 9 15 18 21 12 35 17
‐2.136338 ‐2.131575 ‐2.031513 ‐1.858209 ‐1.803993 ‐1.643419 ‐1.627209 ‐1.523988 ‐1.282859 ‐1.203665 ‐1.073708 ‐1.047953 ‐1.026589 ‐0.962545 ‐0.88525 ‐0.81642 ‐0.775497 ‐0.716957 ‐0.422994 ‐0.354364 ‐0.095612 0.2153422 0.2714894 0.3377795 0.4050876 0.4947754 0.6026419 0.6133161 0.6633223 0.8433303 1.091318 1.318972 1.388719 1.446037 1.48972 1.536127 1.602837 2.138166 2.53033 2.795231 3.118474 3.622328 4.85184
0.063032 0.064544 0.120045 0.121503 0.121503 0.134224 0.144232 0.152478 0.155767 0.165223 0.18421 0.19305 0.209254 0.232979 0.28646 0.288239 0.304426 0.312847 0.380816
29 26 19 37 20 40 45 43 41 36 34 38 31 44 46 28 39 2 8 3 1 4 14 11 23 33 25 27 18 30 24 7 5 15 17 9 13 16 10 35 32 21 12
‐1.959382 ‐1.858549 ‐1.847494 ‐1.79983 ‐1.791744 ‐1.701271 ‐1.598868 ‐1.316225 ‐1.253912 ‐1.205875 ‐1.070988 ‐1.016293 ‐0.94289 ‐0.939842 ‐0.912825 ‐0.888316 ‐0.73849 ‐0.640916 ‐0.496662 ‐0.468617 ‐0.250005 ‐0.214091 ‐0.159802 ‐0.10642 ‐0.054191 0.0690268 0.3716473 0.4006205 0.6236882 0.7649221 0.8330269 0.8915317 0.9920869 1.113482 1.459596 1.481331 2.432147 2.620351 2.942025 3.140739 3.893699 4.322824 5.29461
42
Ranking
Pump C. house Planter Fan Mud house Parab. Ant W. house Radio Bike Gas stove Wheelb. Motorbike Stereo W.mach. Furniture Sew.mach. Freezer DVD TV
Stove (wood) C. House Fan Mud house Stereo W.house W. mach. Bike O. animals Planter Donkey Radio Horse Wheelb. Sew. mach. Furnite Parab. Ant DVD Gas stove Cattle Freezer Pump Motorbike TV Birds
‐0.09393 0.014614 0.026218 0.026218 0.049702 0.051948 0.061358 0.091047 0.132867 0.149086 0.155218 0.162352 0.163537 0.164293 0.167696 0.17096 0.18172 0.18333 0.185883 0.229738 0.247091 0.2476 0.255689 0.283696 0.382281
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
60
Table 5‐6. Income diversity index considering different sources of income / wellbeing No. Agriculture
Non‐wood forest product extraction
Cattle farming
Fisheries
Trade
Remittance
Working outside the farm as labour force
Others
INDEX
1
30,00
33,33
20
6,67
10
4
2
13,33
86,67
2
3
43,33
23,35
16,66
16,66
4
4
26,66
30,00
30,00
13,34
4
5
46,66
10,00
20,00
23,34
4
6
10,00
6,66
6,68
33,33
10,00
33,33
4
7
46,66
13,34
30,00
10,00
4
8
36,67
20,00
13,33
20,00
10,00
5
9
60,00
40,00
2
10
60,00
40,00
2
11
23,44
15,63
14,06
23,44
23,44
5
12
33,34
12,12
12,12
15,15
15,15
12,12
6
13
16,66
16,66
16,68
50,00
4
14
20,00
36,00
44,00
3
15
26,67
13,33
20,00
20,00
10,00
10,00
6
16
46,88
46,88
6,25
2
17
54,15
20,85
25,00
3
18
30,00
36,66
6,68
20,00
6,66
3
19
30,00
16,66
36,66
16,68
4
20
60,00
40,00
2
21
33,33
50,00
16,67
3
22
13,33
20,00
13,33
16,66
23,35
13,33
6
23
24,14
17,24
10,34
6,90
27,59
13,79
5
24
26,37
6,59
2,20
17,58
30,77
16,48
4
25
35,71
7,14
10,71
28,57
17,86
4
26
26,47
20,59
14,71
23,53
14,71
5
27
50,00
50,00
2
28
27,94
4,41
2,94
13,24
51,47
3
29
20,00
40,00
40,00
3
30
20,69
17,24
13,79
6,90
24,14
17,24
5
31
36,36
13,63
9,09
18,18
22,74
4
32
13,79
3,45
37,93
10,34
17,24
17,24
5
33
45,24
16,67
21,43
16,67
4
34
25,93
22,22
18,52
22,22
11,11
5
35
38,71
19,35
22,58
19,35
4
36
17,50
15,00
15,00
15,00
12,50
17,50
7,50
6
37
26,92
11,54
7,69
15,38
23,08
15,38
5
38
14,29
14,29
16,33
14,29
12,24
16,33
12,24
7
39
16,00
8,00
24,00
8,00
16,00
12,00
16,00
5
40
15,00
80,00
5,00
2
41
6,67
46,67
33,33
6,67
6,67
2
42
20,00
60,00
20,00
3
43
34,62
11,54
34,62
19,23
4
44
14,29
28,57
14,29
28,57
14,29
5
45
20,00
46,67
20,00
13,33
4
46
38,24
29,41
32,35
3
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
61
Table 5‐7. Producer’s type classification Lower welfare index/less diverse 2 20 28 29 40 41 42 46
Lower welfare index/more diverse 3 6 8 19 22 26 31 34 36 37 38 39 43 44 45
Higher welfare index/less diverse 9 10 14 16 17 18 21 27 Higher welfare index/more diverse 1 4 5 7 11 12 13 15 23 24 25 30 32 33 35
Based on the analysis presented above and according to the four producer’s types in this section, some main vulnerability issues have been analysed. For that reason, the income and welfare sources presented previously for the whole sample have been now analysed separately for each group. The following figure represents the group of “Lower welfare index/less diverse”. In terms of income/ wellbeing sources, when analysing the four categories separately, it was observed that considerable differences between the households in the TF and VA. Therefore, it was considered necessary to make a subdivision of the groups according to the region (TF or VA). Since all households from VA in this study, are associated with a lower welfare index, this subdivision was only needed in two groups (more and less diverse within the lower welfare category). The resulting six groups are listed in table 5.8 and figure 5.30 compares income and welfare within the six groups.
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
62
100,0 75,0
Region All
50,0
Terra firme Várzea
25,0
er s Oth
Cat
tle pr o
duc tion
P
er ie s
Fish
NW F
A gr ic u Co m ltur me e rcia lisa tion Su b sidi Wo es r k fo rc e ou tsid e
0,0
Figure 5.29. Income and wellbeing sources for the “Lower welfare index/less diverse” producers group
Table 5‐8. Final classification of producer’s group for the risk analysis Group
Description
Gr. 1 (L+TF)
Lower welfare index / more diverse (TF)
Gr. 2 (L+VA)
Lower welfare index / more diverse (VA)
Gr. 3 (H+)
Higher welfare index / more diverse
Gr. 4 (L ‐TF)
Lower welfare index / less diverse (TF)
Gr. 5 (L ‐VA)
Lower welfare index / less diverse (VA)
Gr. 6 (H‐)
Higher welfare index / less diverse
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
63
100
Gr. 1 (LTF+) Gr. 2 (LVA+) Gr. 3 (H+) Gr. 4 (LTF ‐) Gr. 5 (LVA ‐) Gr. 6 (H‐)
50
25
Figure 5.30. Comparison of activities (income & wellbeing) within the six producers groups
er s O th
n c tio Ca t tle p r
odu
ies Fis
her
P NW F
tsid e e o u orc
Su b
sid
ies
Wo r kf
Co
mm er c iali sa
tio n
0
Ag ric u lt u re
% of the households
75
Chapter 5. Results and analysis
64
Figure 5.30 gives a first overview over the different distribution of activities amongst the six groups. It is important to highlight that this information only considers how many producers in each category are involved within the activities; no evaluation of the extent and importance of each activity is provided yet. Some of the most important results extracted are as follows: •
All producers in the TF region in the category of “lower welfare index” (i.e. Groups 1 and 4) are involved to some extent with agriculture.
•
Cattle and NWFP are of no relevance in the Várzea area (Gr. 2 and 5).
•
Producers in all groups except Gr. 4 (Lower welfare index / less diverse (TF)) are mostly selling part of their production and are thus subject to market risks.
•
It is noteworthy to register that the highest number of subsidy receivers are found within group 4 (higher welfare and more diverse)
•
All groups except Gr. 4 (Lower welfare index TF / less diverse) and 6 (Higher welfare index / less diverse) are relatively homogeneous, i.e. 50% or more producers are involved with most activities within a group. In group four and six, producers are more specialised and have, in general terms, one main activity (e.g. agriculture or cattle).
5.5.
Risk analysis and adaptation to climate related risks
The first survey showed that most producers belong to some kind of cooperative or association, mainly producers association like STR and Z‐28 for the fisher’s case. According to ProVarzea (2009) the number of fishers associated to Z‐28 is 3 940. It is noteworthy that this represents a security social network, because these associations are giving constant support and milder the effects of certain risks affecting producer’s livelihoods. For instance, in order to become a member it is necessary a monthly contribution of 2R$ for which they get some kind of insurance in case of accidents, maternity bonus, etc. So, against such risks it is regarded as important to be part of some of these schemes that can, when occurs, ameliorate the adverse impacts of such risks. During the second survey, chosen representative households were inquired more specifically about climate risk related topics. The most relevant results are presented below subdivided into the sectors.
5.5.1 Agriculture Most of the interviewees experienced crop loss due to the excess of rain that caused the decay of the crop’s roots. The most affected crops were cassava, beans and corn. This year’s (2009) climatic conditions were regarded by the majority as extreme; 90% of the interviewees that work in agriculture registered significant losses in the order of 50 up to 100 percent of their production. In the context of climate related adverse impacts on the local producers, the severe drought in 2005 that affected the region was also perceived as an extreme that lead to significant losses. During this second phase of interviews, several coping strategies were mentioned, such as planting in higher areas, or in terrains with greater sand content (which in both cases
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reduce the impact of excessive rain). However, only few interviewees stated having access to such lands. It is also important to highlight that in the region different varieties of cassava are cultivated. The selection depends on consumption preferences (texture, colour, taste) market value, as well as, in some cases, resistance properties of the variety against unfavourable weather events. The mentioned varieties of cassava were Minambú/ Bembasu, Marriquinha and Raprano. Amongst the mentioned varieties of shorter life cycle (seven months) are found: Abacatina, Mulatinha, Esfola, Castanha, Puré, Manicuré, Carawasú, Mamão and Tucumán. Prevention techniques included using more resistant varieties of cassava where the following varieties were considered as the most resistant against excess of rain: Pinajé, Corací and Rasgadinha. Other measures to prevent crop losses that were mentioned are the diversification of crops within an area and following the right planting period. An additional coping strategy included to work outside the household to gain additional income, thus becoming less dependent on the own production. Some of the producers showed disposition to pay for an insurance scheme (hypothetical) that could cover losses caused by climatic impacts such as excessive rain. A mode value of 3 R$/month was mentioned, which is similar to the contribution fee given to rural worker’s association or fisher’s union.
5.5.2 NWFP In general terms, interviewees involved in the NWFP sector did not associate any climate related risks to their extractive activities. For this sector, the major concern was focused on market related risk, i.e. specifically price fluctuations. In this context, this year the lowest price level for brazilnut (one of the most important NWFP in the region) in more than a decade was reached. According to information obtained from one of the largest brazilnut trader in Alenquer (Suelly9) 100 R$ were paid per saca10 in 1997. In 2009, prices had dropped to 40 R$ saca‐1 and kept falling to 35 R$ saca‐1 in mid 2009. The reasons for curent price fluctuations are according to this trader supply, demand (external market mainly), deforestation and the world economic crisis. The price level this year is so low that several of the interviewees stated that they will pursue other activities, such as agriculture (or cassava flour production) or livestock production in case that prices drop below a certain minimum. However, this situation cannot be analysed merely by considering the opportunity cost of the brazilnut extraction. Opportunity cost is relevant for a certain part of the population, especially younger people, but is basically irrelevant or at least less relevant for communities (e.g. Quilombola) with a strong tradition of brazilnut extraction. For the traditional users this NWFP is an important component of the daily diet and is thus always practiced. It is important to consider that climate extremes and long‐term changes are not easily perceived in this sector, thinking of the cases of brazilnut and cumaru. Climatic stress on
9
Personal communication with Ms. Suelly (Alenquer) 1 Saca = 60 kg
10
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the trees can manifest several years after stress, which makes it difficult to establish a direct relationship with certain climatic phenomena.
5.5.3 Fisheries For fishers the most relevant climate related risk is flooding, since it decreases the catch significantly. Besides the loss of income, extreme flood episodes can lead, like in this year, to the loss of dwellings and belongings, as they mostly live in the Varzea region, which is the most affected during such events. Additionally, the problem of diseases and loss of savings for future investments (money is used to cope with the adverse situation) are also considered as negative impacts of flooding. On the other hand, certain drought episodes that have significant negative effects on agriculture were perceived as positive for fishers, since catching is easier and yield increases. Climatic extreme events and/or long term changes affect the various sectors differently (e.g. the effects of floods and droughts on fisheries and agriculture as discussed above). Thus, producers belonging to diverse groups (Gr. 1 ‐ 3) are less vulnerable because it is less likely that all sectors they are involved with are confronted with a hazard at the same time. On the other hand, less diverse groups (Gr. 4 – 6) have a lower coping capacity since they are more specialised. Taking as an example group 5 (LVA ‐), if the fisheries sector is affected adversely, as happened this year due to the severe flooding they lose basically all income since also commercial activity will be reduced or absent.
Chapter 6. Discussion
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Discussion
Few studies have addressed risk in Amazonian production systems and none has been found to assess risk in the way taken in this study. A relevant study in the Amazon was that carried out by Szlafstein (2009), who through a series of vulnerability indicators has analysed foreseen impacts of CC in a series of projects of GTZ in the Brazilian Amazon but at a more macro level. Other related studies that also used a “bottom‐up” approach (seeking to gain insights from the farmers) were found in order to assess vulnerability of Ethiopian farmers (Deressa et al., 2008) and Aymone (2009) in South Africa. Critical to this study is the selection of appropriate indicators to identify risks that were in this case based on income sources and welfare. The results obtained appear to contribute with valid information on local producer’s livelihoods and their adaptive capacity. However, it is essential that further studies build on the generated data, in order to elicit risk profiles and thus create scenarios essential for targeted adaptation efforts. When presenting the results several important issues are important to be discussed in this section, especially in order to carry out further research. It is essential to keep always present that for the characterisation of livelihoods 39/46 surveys were carried out in TF areas, while only 7 in VA where fisheries play a more important role. Despite the long preparation for field work, surveys could not always be conducted completely according to the plan. As stated above, some of the chosen households could not be reached due to the mentioned floods and bad accessibility to some areas. As a result the Várzea area is under‐represented in this study.
6.1.
Livelihood assessment
Regarding the size of the land used for agriculture, it was clear that the information obtained is not accurate, due to the difficulty of difference in units and misinterpretation. In the study area, there were some people that were not sure exactly about the size of the area, others had a different notion of the same units. For instance, for some producers, 1 “Lote” was equivalent to 50 “tarefas”; while for others 1 “Lote” equalled 80 “tarefas”. Certainly, when asking this question, most interviewees responded with the total size of their land rather than with the size used for agriculture. Besides that, it is important to keep in mind that most households had not land tenure formally defined, just had “recibo de compra” (payment receipt), which has no guarantee but on the other hand, it seemed not to be a problem in terms of being afraid of getting their land taken away. According to field interviews with key informants, subsistence agriculture is defined by an area used for farming of less than 2 Tarefas (0.50 ha). Applying this definition to the area, just 15% of the households would be defined as such, which is clearly underestimated. In the case of VA, the mean area used for agriculture is of 0.75 ha according to Almeida et al. (2008).
6.2.
Welfare assessment
In this study, it was observed that in order to make an appropriate assessment of labour, it is of great importance to consider different schemes that do not work merely with daily
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payments. In this sense, schemes such as exchange of work amongst producers or collective work (mutirão) also take place. Therefore, it is of special care to consider the context of this information for the translation of such data into days worked in the farm‐ unit.
6.3.
Production
Answers related to agricultural production were not always straight forward, as the systems are complex and normally no definite “yes or no” answers can be given. The main problem was measuring the self‐sufficiency of the households. First, the term itself showed inappropriate for direct use because the households generally would not really understand its meaning. Thus, information was derived indirectly buy asking first what was produced, what of it was sold and whether the household was in need of buying a product in certain times. When no need for buying a product (of those produced in the household) was stated, self‐sufficiency was assumed. However, since the need to buy certain products could not be specified more in detail, self‐sufficiency might be higher under normal circumstances, since often only adverse situation (e.g. reduced production due to excessive rain) forces the households to buy external products.
6.4.
Perceived risks among all type of producers
It is important to highlight that even though in the time of the field study there was a severe flooding event in the region (as mentioned above), less then 30% perceived “flood” as a risk at all and less then 20% assign it a high priority (1 or 2). This can be however explained with the different exposure and sensitivity of households in TF and VA to certain events such as flooding. While TF is less affected by floods, in VA areas the impacts can be severe. Now considering that precisely because of this flood event the fraction of surveyed households in the VA area is less than initially planned the perceived risk of flood for this area is as a consequence underestimated.
6.5.
Producer’s classification
For the calculation of the welfare index, access to electricity, even if in other regions can be of potential importance, was not considered. This decision was taken based on the consideration that in the area, access to electricity does not mean directly a better status in comparison to other with no access. For instance, the coverage of the electricity network is based at least partly on political decisions or other specific interests and the access to it for a single household is thus merely a matter of chance. For future studies it is important (when desired to make a distinction also amongst fishers) in terms of welfare to emphasize on the means of transport they use, whether they own those means of transport and approximate local prices for the devices. This was not carried out in depth in the welfare assessment due to the extraordinary flood episodes affecting fishers this year, which in turn made it unfeasible to carry out the desired number of surveys to fishers.
6.6.
Risk analysis and adaptation to climate related risks
Asking about insurance systems was found very difficult, when the producers were hypothetically put in certain position of imagining that an insurance scheme would exist.
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However, this understanding problem was dealt with later by using a comparison with the scheme used by such associations they are familiar with (for example the fisher’s union or rural worker’s union). In order to answer the research question “which producer’s types are most likely to be vulnerable” all relevant results presented above were considered in order to create a qualitative ranking of climate related vulnerability among the six producer groups. Relative wealth (as measured with the welfare index) is considered as more important factor than diversity to determine adaptive capacity. This year has shown that due to different parallel mechanisms many sectors were affected simultaneously. Brazilnut price have dropped to a record low while agriculture and fisheries suffered significant losses. For that reason, diversity may not guarantee welfare under certain adverse situations. On the other hand, relative wealth influences the capacity to adapt positively in a case of (near to) total loss resources (cash or capital assets such as cattle) exist to cope with the adverse situation. The results of the relative vulnerability ranking are presented in table x. Based on the analysis the producers in the VA that were categorised as “low welfare index / less diverse” have the smallest adaptive capacity and are the most vulnerable amongst the six groups. On the other side Gr. 3 (higher welfare index/ more diverse) are the least vulnerable amongst the groups. It is noteworthy that the producers from VA are ranked more vulnerable than the corresponding producers in TF. This is attributed to the over all lower diversification in the VA compared to TF. Cattle risk has not been analysed in a deeper extent in this study. Even though, producers relying on related activities are also prone to risk), drought‐flood episodes may influence the period of cattle movement from TF to VA, resulting in higher expenses related to pasture rent (around 2 RS/month per unit of cattle).
Chapter 7. Conclusions
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Conclusions
Due to climate changes in the 21st century, societies are now confronted by a series of new challenges. Considering that the current climatic change processes will continue, regardless of human mitigation efforts, adaptation will be a necessary requirement for societies, in order to cope with the associated problems. This is especially true for small‐ scale producers in the Amazon, whose livelihoods depend directly on climatic conditions due to their impact on agriculture, wood & non‐wood forest product extraction and fisheries. Nevertheless, little research has been conducted in this field. This study aims at contributing to fill the existing knowledge gap. As presented in the introduction several research hypotheses and questions were formulated for the present study. These could be answered by the concluded research as follows. Relative resource abundance in the Amazon does not imply low vulnerability. The opposite can be the case when local populations have traditionally adapted to stable and abundant resource flows. According to the results obtained in this study this hypothesis can be considered as confirmed. Small‐scale producers in the Amazon are vulnerable because they are highly dependent on the use of natural resources which are strongly affected by climate conditions. Long term climatic changes may affect the relative resource abundance of the region and cause shifts within the entire ecosystem. In the short term there is sufficient evidence that has shown the vulnerability of local producer to extreme climate events such as the record drought in 2005 and the recent severe flooding in 2009. Settlement on unstable region, like flood risk prone areas already heightens exposure to climate hazards. Heavy dependence on ecosystem services places their welfare at the mercy of environmental conditions. As the availability and quality of natural resources decline, so does the security of their livelihoods. Limited resources and capacities for responding to stresses such as floods and droughts limit their ability to meet basic needs and move out of poverty. Under current climate conditions, climate risk is not necessarily the dominant source of risk for local producers in all primary production sectors. Market and health risks are often more relevant. Climate change is likely to alter this relationship. The results of this study confirmed also the second hypothesis. Under current conditions the most important risks to the local producers are personal risks (especially health) and market risks. Climate related risks are ranked lower even though they are considered significant. This is however likely to be altered by CC due to two different mechanisms. As analysed in the climate section both more intense and more frequent extremes as well as long term changes are predicted with enough certainty to conclude on increased future climate related hazards. Second, climate related risks are not necessarily direct (as in the case of an extreme event), but also affect other domains such as public health (related epidemics) and markets as discussed. Thus, the share of climate born risks will increase and will be closer linked to other risks.
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¾ Does climate change in the Amazon represent a significant threat to local producer’s welfare and if so, which producer’s types are most likely to be vulnerable? Climate change projections are subject to high degrees of uncertainty as has been discussed in chapter 5. However, changes are now accepted in the scientific community (e.g. IPCC, 2007) and local producers are confronted with two main problems: long term climate change (e.g. increased temperatures and chaotic precipitation patterns) and extreme weather events. In the short term the latter constitute the main threat for local producers. And within the climate change process, however uncertain it may be, there is a registered trend to an increased frequency and intensity of such extremes and the warming up to the area, which can also result in a prolongation of the dry season. This situation is what has been projected in a regional scale for the Amazon region. Considering that the most important economic activities in the region rely on natural resources (agriculture, fisheries, NWFP, etc.), which in turn are affected strongly by climatic conditions, it is evident that extreme weather events are a threat to the local producers. This is consistent also with the local perception and experiences of climate risks. Considering the health aspect that can be connected to climatic events as discussed above, climate is related directly or indirectly to most of the high priority risks that have been registered in this study. Further research on possible effects of climate change on other risk domains (e.g. health or markets) is needed, studying for example malaria and its possible correlation with flood events. In general terms, the VA producers were less diversified than those in the TF and all of them were ranked as with lower welfare index. Sensitivity towards flood events is higher in VA groups (flood‐plain system), where Group 5 (lower welfare index and less diverse from VA) presents the lowest adaptive capacity (lowest welfare and diversification) this group is likely to be the most vulnerable followed by those producers of the same group in the TF. ¾ What kind of producer’s type classification is relevant for risk analysis in the region? A classification based on sectors was considered inappropriate for this study, due to the complex interactions that many producers have within several sectors. Moreover, some producers get involved with other sectors occasionally as a response to certain risks threatening their livelihood. In this study, classification considering welfare and income sources (diversity) was regarded and proved as likely to be appropriate for risk analysis. Additionally, it resulted important to also differentiate between Várzea and Terra Firme households due to significant differences amongst the producers and the biophysical environment. ¾ How is risk perceived among local producers? What are the major types of risks affecting local producers output and wellbeing? Risk types that have been mentioned most frequently and that have been ranked as most important are “personal risks” (diseases and accidents), market related risks (low prices) and climate related risks (excessive rain). All of them are perceived as a potential threat to the producer’s livelihoods in general. However, there are differences among the risk types as of how they affect local producers. Personal risks affect the household directly by reducing the available work force with the result that production is either reduced or external labour is required. In either case it constitutes some sort of loss, be it in the form
Chapter 7. Conclusions
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of additional costs for the hired labour and/or bought products or else the loss of income for not produced products. Market risks do not affect the producer’s output. They affect those producers that sell their products and the main mentioned risk “low prices” impacts them adversely by decreasing their income. This risk might be less severe for those producers that have a diverse production and are self sufficient, while those specialised require the income in order to purchase products they do not produce themselves. Climate related risks may decrease the local producers output, as it is the case for fishers during floods or agriculture during droughts or excessive rain. A clear example was directly observed this year, where most interviewed households in the second round of interviews mentioned having losses in agriculture from 50 up to 100%. It is important to always have in mind that certain climatic event such as too much rain can result in loss of crop yields, thus the production in general decreases, which in turn results in price increases. The combination of these two consequences may have a synergistic adverse effect on those producers that lost production (they cannot sell, and may even have to buy for own consumption at increased prices). However, those producers that were not or less affected, for instance for farming in higher lands, can benefit from this situation because their products will gain higher prices and increase thus the producer income. ¾ What kind of responses and strategies have they developed in order to cope with such risks? The main strategy is a relative diversification of activities within several productive/extractive sectors, as two thirds of the surveyed households have four or more income sources. Within the agricultural sector the use of more resistant varieties of cassava (the main crop) which are less affected by excessive rain was registered. Other strategies included additional work outside the own households activities in order to gain additional income during adverse situations which reduce the own production. Especially within the NWFP sector it was registered that some producers would abandon extractive activities in order to dedicate to other activities (especially cassava flour production) if the sector was adversely affected as by this year’s low prices. Two insurance schemes have been observed in the area. One is the membership in an association or union (STR or Z‐ 28) that for a monthly financial contribution can help in adverse situations as has been stated in the discussion (health, personal). Besides that they make certain lobbying and can represent better rights of their representatives such as compensation in the months where fishing is forbidden, retirement payments, etc. These associations have thus a function of a kind of social network that helps its members when needed. The other is the use of cattle as a capital asset that can provide cash in emergency situations within a short time.
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Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, pp. 581‐615 Malhi, Y., J. Timmons Roberts, R.A. Betts, and T.J. Killeen, W. Li and C.A. Nobre. 2008. Climate Change, Deforestation, and the Fate of the Amazon. Science Volume 319. No. 5860, pp. 169 ‐ 172 Marengo, J.A., C.A. Nobre, J. Tomasella, M.D. Oyama, G. Sampaio, R. Oliveira, H. Camargo, L.M. Alves and I.F. Brown. 2008. The Drought in Amazonia in 2005. Journal of Climate. Volume 21, pp. 495‐516 Marengo J., C. Nobre, E. Salati, T. Ambrizzi. 2007. Caracterização do clima atual e definição das alterações climáticas para o território brasileiro ao longo do Século XXI. Sumário Técnico. Mudanças Climáticas Globais e Efeitos sobre a Biodiversidade. Ministério do Meio Ambiente. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Available online at: http://mudancasclimaticas.cptec.inpe.br/~rmclima/pdfs/prod_probio/Sumario. pdf (23.08.09) Moran, E.F. 1993. Deforestation and Land Use in the Brazilian Amazon. Human Ecology. Volumen 21, No. 1, pp. 1‐ 18 Nobre C., L. Salazar, M. Oyama, M. Cardoso, G. Sampaio and D. Lapola. 2007. Mudanças Climáticas e possíveis alterações nos Biomas da América do Sul. Relatório No. 6. Ministério do Meio Ambiente. Secretaria de Biodiversidade e Florestas. São Paulo, Brazil. 25 p. Avaible online at: http://mudancasclimaticas.cptec.inpe.br/~rmclima/pdfs/prod_probio/Relatorio _6.pdf (23.08.09) Nobre, C.A., P.J. Sellers and J. Shukla. 1991. Amazonian Deforestation and Regional Climate Change. Journal of Climate. Volume 4. American Metereological Society, pp. 957‐988 Obregon G. and J. Marengo. 2007. Caracterização do clima no Século XX no Brasil: Tendências de chuvas e temperaturas médias e extremas. Relatório No. 2. Ministério do Meio Ambiente. Secretaria de Biodiversidade e Florestas. Mudanças Climáticas Globais e Efeitas sobre a Biodiversidade PEN (Poverty Environment Network) 2008. An international network and research project on poverty, environment and forest resources. Available online at: http://www.cifor.cgiar.org/pen/_ref/home/index.htm (12.06.09) Porro, R. 2008. RAVA – Red de Estudios de las Condiciones Amazonicas de Vida y Ambiente. RAVA – Red de Estudios de las Condiciones Amazonicas de Vida y Ambiente. Amazon Iniciative. Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) ‐ Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). Belém, Pará, Brazil
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ProVárzea (Projeto Manejo dos Recursos Naturais da Várzea). 2007. Estatística Pesqueira do Amazonas e do Pará 2004. Ministério do Meio Ambiente – MMA. Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renováveis – Ibama. Manaus, Brazil, pp. 73 Rodrigues E. and C. Szlafsztein. 2009. Relatório das Atividades de Campo realizada no Município de Alenquer. Belém – Pará, pp. 38 p Sampaio, G., C. Nobre, M. Heil Costa, P. Satyamurty, B. Silveira Soares‐Filho and M. Cardoso. 2007. Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion. Geophysical Research Letters. Volume 34. L17709, pp.1‐7 Sawyer, D. 2008. Climate change, biofuels and eco‐social impacts in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado. Phylosophical Transactions. The Royal Society Volume 363, pp. 1747‐1752 Shanley P. and L. Luz. 2003. The Impacts of Forest Degradation on Medicinal Plant Use and Implications for Health Care in Eastern Amazonia. BioScience. Volume 53. No. 6, pp. 573 – 584 Smith, B., I. Burton, R.J.T. Klein and J. Wandel. 2000. An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability. Climatic Change, Volume 45, No. 1. Springer Netherlands, pp. 223‐251. Available online at: http://www.springerlink.com/content/x12l23524001751n/fulltext.pdf (10/08/08) Smit, B. and O. Pilifosova. 2001. Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity. In IPCC (Ed.), Climate change. Impacts, adaptations and vulnerability. Cambridge, UK, pp. 879‐967. Available online at: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/pdf/wg2TARchap18.pdf (12/09/08) Szlafsztein, C. F. 2009. Lições para a Adaptação de Comunidades aos impactos das Mudanças Climáticas na Amazônia: Uma Avaliação das Experiências do Programa PDA – PADEQ. Relatório preliminar GTZ. Brazil, pp. 90 Thomas, D., H. Osbahr, C. Twyman, N. Adger and B. Hewitson. 2005a. Adaptive: Adaptations to climate change amongst natural resource‐dependant societies in the developing world: across the Southern African climate gradient. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Technical Report No. 35. South Africa, 43 pp. Available online at: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme3/final_reports/t2_31.pdf (27.08.08) Thomas, D.S.G., M. Knight and G.F.S. Wiggs. 2005b. Remobilization of southern African desert dune systems by twenty‐first century global warming. Nature. Volume 435. Nature Publishing Group, pp. 1218‐1221. Available online at: http://www.boker.org.il/meida/negev/desert_biking/Aeolian_geomorphology/ Thomas_et_al_nature2005.pdf (12.09.08)
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Vuille M., S. Bradley, M. Werner and F. Keimig. 2003. 20th century climate change in the tropical Andes: observations and model results. Climatic Change. Volume 59, pp. 75‐99. Yohe, G. and R.S.J. Tol. 2002. Indicators of social and economic coping capacity: moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. Global Environment Change, Volume 12, pp. 25‐40. Available online at: http://www.aiaccproject.org/meetings/Norwich_02/Norwich_CD/APPENDICES/ ARTICLES_VULN_ADAPTCAP/INDIC_SE_ADAPTCAP.PDF (15.09.08) Ziervogel, G., A. Cartwright, A. Tas, J. Adejuwon, F. Zermoglio, M. Shale and B. Smith. 2008. Climate change and adaptation in African agriculture. Stockholm Environment Institute. Prepared for the Rockefeller Foundation, pp. 53. DVD – Documentation Video: Ximango. 2009. Enchente em Alenquer/PA. Local Radio Station. Alenquer, PA ‐ Brazil
APPENDIXES
Appendix I. Random sampling of communities (EMATER, 2008)
i
Appendix I. Random sampling of communities (EMATER, 2008) Communites Zone 1 (Salvação) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Sampled families
ARARICUARA BOA VISTA BOCA DO ARAPIRI BOM RETIRO CABECEIRA CUIPEUA CABECEIRA DO AÇAÍ CACHINGUBA CARMO CENTRO DO ARAPIRI COSTA DO ARAPIRI CUIPEUA CURICACA ESPIRITO SANTO IGARAPÉ DO LAGO ILHA DO CARMO IPANEMA JARAQUITUBA MATO GROSSO PAI ANTONIO PLANALTO PRAIA DA CONCEIÇÃO SALVAÇÃO SÃO PEDRO SÃO RAIMUNDO SURUBI‐AÇÚ SURUBI‐MIRI/ BAIXO SURUBI‐MIRI/CIMA TACHI URUCURITUBA URUXI VILA NOVA VIRA VOLTA 10
Resident population
Number of families Random numbers 46 25 60 19 12 20 7 25 27 56 42 100 10 25 17 38 45 38 19 37 13 90 40 13 85 25 80 10 43 16 15 20 1118
17 7 3 8 18 26 23 6 15 32
Appendix I. Random sampling of communities (cont.)
ii
Appendix I. Random sampling of communities (cont.) Communites Zone 2 (Camburão) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Sampled families
Resident population
Number of families Random numbers
ANDIROBAL
21
5
ARRELIA BACABAL CABECEIRA CUIPEUA CATIITU CONCEIÇÃO FAROL GOIANA GRANDE GOIANINHA INGÁ MACUPIXI MEDIÂ MORADA NOVA NOVA ESPERANÇA QUINTILIANO RAMAL DA MARTA SÃO JOSÉ SERRINHA TRAVESSÃO VILA DE PALHA ANDIROBAL ‐ I BEM LONGE BOM PRINCIPIO BOM CUIDADO BOM FUTURO CAMBURÃO CAMPO GRANDE CORRE‐MÃO DANIEL MORROS. NOVO PROGRESSO OLHO D ÁGUA PALHAL PRIMAVERA SANTA HELENA SANTA INÊS SANTOS SOMBRA DA LUA TANQUES VAI QUEM QUER
25 40 12 40 10 30 15 38 48 45 16 40 21 27 5 25 20 25 35 25 58 100 30 10 115 5 78 20 20 12 35 34 30 29 42 86 23 20 30
26 12 24 39 29 18 40 9 25 32 6
1340
12
Appendix I. Random sampling of communities (cont.)
iii
Appendix I. Random sampling of communities (cont.) Communites
Resident population
Zone 3 (Pedra Redonda) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Sampled families
ALTOS DOS FERREIRAS ARUMANZA AURORA BARRAGEM BOA AGUA BOCA NOVA BOLSAS BOM FIM BOM VENTO BULANDEIRA CAJAZEIRA CAMPO GRANDE CANAÂ CCOLONIA NOVA CIPOAL FORTALEZA IGARAPÉ DA RAIZ IGARAPÉ DE AREIA KM‐19 KM‐20 LAGUINHO MEIO CENTRO MIRANDA MIRITI MUCAMBO PARAR PEDRA REDONDA POLIDÓRIO PORTO ALEGRE SACRÍFICIO SANTA LUZIA SANTO ANTONIO GESTRUDES SIRIRI TABATINGA VILA MARANHENSE 11
Number of families Random numbers
DAS
70 75 20 50 21 25 50 20 19 80 20 18 58 56 30 60 30 48 53 30 50 30 20 35 45 20 40 15 23 50 12
27 16 13 28 29 20 17 3 11 18 6
75
15 10 18
1291
Appendix II.
Semi‐structured questionnaire: Livelihoods
“Adaptação da Pequena Produção Rural a Riscos Climáticos na Amazônia Brasileira” Formulário Nº........ Questionário para categorizar os tipos de produção na região Nome do entrevistado ________________________________ Data _____________________ Nome do entrevistador _______________________________ Zona N° (segundo nossa estratificação do município) _____________________________
Comunidade N° _____________________________ Meio agroecológico Terra firme
Várzea
1
1.
Caracterização geral da propriedade
1.1 Quantos anos o senhor/a mora no estabelecimento? __________________________________________________________ 2. Quantas pessoas moram no estabelecimento?
1. Origem dos produtores*
3. Quantos de eles tem...?
1 = Norte 2 =Nordeste 3 = Centro‐Oeste 4 = Sudeste 5 = Sul
4. Pertence a 5. Nome da associação alguma associação ou cooperativa ou cooperativa? 1 = SIM 0 = NÃO
Código
No. de homem No. de mulheres
>=18 anos (adultos)
<= 10 anos >= 60 anos (crianças) (idosos)
Código
Nome
1.
Comentários:
*
1 = Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima, Tocantins; 2 = Alagoas, Bahia, Ceará, Maranhão, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Sergipe 3 = Distrito Federal, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul; 4 = Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo 5 = Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina
2
2.
Tabela 2. 1. Em que lotes é que o Senhor trabalha: 1 = tarefa 2 = lotes 3 = ha 4= outros
Área
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1 = A pé 2 = De bicicleta 3 = Transporte animal (carroça, etc.) 4 = De carro 5 = De ônibus 6 = De caminhão 7 = De barco, navio, lancha, raveta 8 = De moto
Horas de viagem
Código
1 = Título definitivo ou certificado de posse 2 = Arrendatário 3 = Ocupante (terras públicas situação fundiária definida) 4 = Terras Públicas regularizadas (assentamentos, etc.)
Lotes
2. Situação fundiária. Que tipo 3. Distancia a cidade 4. Meio de de documento tinha para esse de Alenquer transporte lote/terreno?
Unidade
Código
Comentários:
3
3.
Bem‐estar
Tabela 3. Terra Firme e Várzea 1. O Senhor tem um ou mais dos seguintes itens?
2. Idem.
2. Idem.(pesca)
3. Idem.
Item
Quantos?
Item
Quantos?
Item
Quantos?
Nome
Quantos?
1.
Energia elétrica, M=motor, R=rede CELPA, B=bateria
1.
Motoserra
1.
Rede de pesca / Malhadeira
1.
Boi
2.
Agua de poço
2.
Plantadeira manual
2.
Bomba
2.
Vaca
3.
Espinhel
3.
Novilha
3.
Pote
3.
Tambor p/guardar grão
4.
Bicicleta
4.
Pulverizador
4.
Arpão
4.
Novilho
5.
Carro
5.
Carro‐de‐mão
5.
Camaroeira
5.
Garote
6.
Caminhão
6.
Casa de alveneria
6.
Canhiço
6.
Mamote / Vitela
7.
Motocicleta
7.
Casa de barro
7.
Lampião a gas
7.
Bezerro
8.
Televisão
8.
Casa de madeira
8.
Isopor/Geleira
8.
Bezerra
9.
Rádio
9.
Casa de farinha
9.
Canoa
9.
Cavalo
10. Aparelho de som
10. Galpão
10. Rabeta
10. Burro
11. Geladeira
11. Açude
11. Bajara
11. Galinha
12. Fogão a gás
12. Curral
12. Barco a motor
12. Galo
13. Fogão a lenha
13. Porcilga
13. Bote
13. Porco
14. Móveis de cozinha
14. Enchadeco / enchada
14. Tarafa
14. Bode
15. Móveis de sala
15. Machado
15. Lamparinha
15. Colméias
16. Móveis de quarto
16. Foice
16. Lampião a kerosene
16. Pato
17. Carroça de boi
17. Fação / terçado
17. Flecha + arcos
17. Pintinhos
18. Maq. de costura
18. Roçadeira
18. Furador
18. Picote
19. DVD
19. Aplicador de semente
19. Cacete
19. Frango
4
20. Maq. lavar roupa
20. Draga, lavanca
20. Linha comprida
21. Ventilador
21. Archas
22. Antena parabólica
23. Motor
5
4.
Produção comercializada e consumida de produtos gerados no estabelecimento
4.1. Qual é/são os produtos mais importantes para a sua renda? 4.2. Quais são os produtos mais importantes para a alimentação da família?
6
Códigos de produtos (A) Permanentes
Vende?
X
Códigos de produtos (A)
Chega para o consumo da família?
1 = SIM, 0 = NÃO
Temporárias
Código
Vende? X
Chega para o consumo da família? 1 = SIM, 0 = NÃO Código
1.
Abacate
23 Abacaxi
2.
Banana
24 Arroz
3.
Cacau (amêndoa)
25 Cana‐de‐açúcar
4.
Café em coco/ em grão
26 Feijão
5.
Cajú (fruto)
27 Juta (fibra)
6.
Coco‐da‐baía
28 Mandioca
7.
Cupuaçu
29 Melancia
8.
Goiaba
30 Milho
9.
Graviola
31 Outros
10. Jaca
11. Jambo
12. Jamelão
Códigos de produtos (Pec)
13. Laranja
Pecuária
14. Lima
32 Gado de leite
15. Limão
33 Gado de corte
16. Manga
34 Búfalo
17. Mamão
35 Aves
18. Maracujá
36 Porcos
19. Pupunha
Pequenos 37 rumiantes
20. Pimenta‐do‐reino
21. Tangerina
22. Urucum (semente)
7
Códigos de produtos (E)
Vende?
Chega para o consumo da família?
Extração vegetal
1 = SIM, 0 = NÃO
X
Código
1
Açaí (fruto)
2
Cajú (castanha)
3
Castanha‐do‐Pará
4
Borracha (látex coagulado)
5
Carvão vegetal
6
Cumaru (amêndoa)
7
Angiroba
8
Teca
9
Jacarandá
10 Purpura
11 Óleos: copaiba
12 Outros ___________________
8
Códigos de produtos (Pes)
PESCA
Vende?
Chega para o consumo da família?
Vende?
Chega para o consumo da família?
1 = SIM, 0 = NÃO
X
Código
X
1 = SIM, 0 = NÃO Código
1
Acari
23 Jurupensém, Bico‐de‐Prato
2
Aracu, Piau
24 Jurupoca
3
Apairi, Acaré‐Açu
25 Lambari de Rabo Amarelo
4
Abotoado Cui‐cui
26 Lambari de Rabo Vermelho
5
Apapá, Sarda
27 Mandí
6
Aruaná
28 Mandubé, Fidalgo, Palmito
7
Bacu
29 Mapará
8
Barbado
30 Matrinxã
20 Bicuda
31 Pacu
21 Cachara, Surubim
32 Peixe Cochorro
22 Cachorro Prandirá ou Fação
33 Piapara
23 Caparari
34 Piau Flamengo, Aracu‐Pinima
13 Corvina, Pescada
35 Piau‐Tres‐Pintas
14 Curimatâ, Curimbatã, Curimba
36 Piavuçu
15 Dourada
37 Pintado
16 Dourado
38 Piracanjuba
17 Filhote
39 Piraíba, Filhote
18 Fura Calça
40 Piramimbea, peixe galinha
19 Jacundá
41 Piramutaba, piaba
20 Jaraquí, Curimatá
Piranha caju, piranha 42 vermelha ou preta
21 Jatuarana
43 Pirapitinga do sul, Caranha
22 Jaú
44 Piraputanga
9
Cont.
Vende?
X
45 Pirarara 46 Pirarucu
Chega para o consumo da família?
1 = SIM, 0 = NÃO Código
47 Surubim Chicote
48 Tabarana
49 Tambaqui
50 Traíra
51 Trairão
52 Tucunare
53 Camaráo graúdo, camarui
54 Outros _________________
10
5. Que atividade o senhor considera mais importante para o bem‐estar de sua família? 1. Que atividade o senhor dá mais importância para o bem‐estar / segurança da sua família (seja em dinheiro ou em alimentos)?
2. Importância relativa
X Valor (%)
1 = Agricultura (A)
2 = Extrativismo (E)
3 = Pecuária (Pec)
4 = Pesca (Pes)
5 = Comercio
6 = Remessas e bolsas (gov.)
7 = Venda de mão ‐de‐obra
8 = Outros
Comentários:
11
6. Transporte: Para atividade mais importante por que meio o senhor vende seus produtos?
1.
Para atividade mais importante por que meio o senhor vende seus produtos?
1. Atravessador 2.Feirante 3. Bodegueiro 4. Varejista 5. Atacadista 6.Empresa 7. Cooperativa 8. Outros
Código
Nome (Quem é, e onde mora)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Comentários:
12
7. Natureza de mão‐de‐obra 7.1 Quantos dias vc costuma trabalhar fora do estabelecimento nestes meses? J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
7.2 Onde é que costuma trabalhar fora? Descreva por favor. 7.3 Quanto é que costuma ganhar ao dia? ____________________
13
7.4 Em que meses do ano é que costuma contratar mão‐de‐obra? J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
7.5 Quantas pessoas é que contrata ao mês normalmente? ____________________ 7.6 Quantos dias por mês é que costuma contratar mão‐de‐obra? ____________________ 7.7 Quanto é que costuma pagar ao dia? ____________________
14
8. Principais riscos 1. Você já perdeu renda / tive prejuízos por algum de estes problemas ou outros?
X
2. Qual é o risco mais severo para si? = 1; Qual o segundo? = 2; o terceiro? = 3;...
Comentários
Código (Priorização)
1. Preços ‐
2. Transporte –
3. Produtos estragados por falta de armazenamento 4. Sit. Fundiária / Títulos (terra)
5. Políticas do gov. ‐
6. Mão de obra + (Caso de ter disponibilidade de vender mão de obra, mas não conseguiu)
7. Mão de obra ‐ (Falta)
8. Doenças (família)
9. Acidentes (golpes, mordida de cobra,..)
10. Chuva +
11. Chuva ‐
12. Cheia / enchente
13. Fogo acidental
14. Pragas / Doenças de cultivos ou animais 15. Outros
15
Appendix III. Welfare index (price based)
Welfare index (price based)
xx
Welfare index (price based) Points assigned to different durable items and others based on real prices Points Item
Prices (R$ /unit)
Points Item
Prices (R$ /unit)
8
Motorbike†
2 700
2 200
8
Concrete house
7 7 5 4 4 4
Refrigerator Motor Pump Sound set (Stereo) † DVD† Washing machine†
900 1 799 300 475.23 475.23 245
700 100 100 400
6 4 4
Wooden house Mud house Palha house
4
Parabolic antenna†
333.75
200
Bull‡
846
3
Television†
282
100
567
3
Sewing machine†
221.7
100
5
600
800
2 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
Mannual planting device Wheelbarrow Furniture in general† Fan† Radio† Bicycle Storage barrel Gas stove Firewood stove Jar
85 75 142 80 75.4 50 50 25 20 10
47 159.9 50 30 100 40* 30 15
5 1
Cow‡ Cattle (medium value considering different weights) Horse‡ Birds‡
1 104.1 739.9
500 > 100
†
Mean and mode values respectively based on data from the Project PEN‐RAVA "Amazon Livelihoods & Environmental Network 2009"
‡
Based on (Embrapa, 2008)
Point categories used in table above Range of prices (R$) 2 000 – 3 000 900 –1 999 700 – 899 500 – 699 300 – 499 100 – 299 50 – 99 > 50
Subjective points 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
The table shows the points assigned to the considered possessions based on real market prices. These points were then used to create the index presented above in table x.
Welfare index (price based)
xx
Selection of representative families based on points given according price weighing, comparing points including and excluding animal possession Points without Interviews considering animal No. possession 42 9 43 13 40 13 2 15 29 16 13 18 10 19 36 19 45 20 37 20 39 20 3 22 23 23 26 23 38 23 19 23 44 26 6 26 5 27 4 28 20 28 22 28 31 29 46 29 7 30 28 32 1 35 15 35 27 36 24 36 41 36 30 39 25 40 9 41 8 42 11 44 34 44 12 50 21 54 18 55 14 58 33 59 17 62 16 63 32 70 35 77
Average 21.22
Average 46.39
Closest values to average (3 values)
Interviews Points considering No. animal possession
29 43 42 6 19 45 37 22 26 28 44 46 23 41 11 1 20 8 34 5 24 39 14 9 18 33 17 38 31 40 36 15 12 13 21 25 7 4 2 3 35 30 16 10 27 32
Average 37.74 Average 254.09
16 16 18 26 27 30 31 33 33 37 37 40 41 43 44 45 45 47 48 49 52 52 58 65 69 70 72 77 86 87 92 97 105 108 111 112 115 128 130 137 352 524 570 575 892 1270
Appendix IV. Second in depth semi‐structured interviews for agriculture, non‐timber forest products (cumaru & brazilnut), fisheries and other risks
QUESTIONARIO II: ANÁLISE DOS RISCOS NOS SISTEMAS DE PRODUÇÃO ‐ ALENQUER Meio agroecológico Terra firme
Várzea
Nome do entrevistado ________________________________
Data _____________________
Comunidade N° _____________________________
1
I. ROÇA 1. Rendimento e Riscos (Perguntas para identificar eventos extremos, provocando perdas de produção e renda), estratégias de adaptação e prevenção O senhor já perdeu colheita e renda devido a alguns eventos extremos não previsíveis como por ex.: seca? ___________(S/N) Em caso afirmativo, indique por favor os eventos extremos climáticos, as culturas afetadas e as respectivas perdas de produção. Fatores que afetam a produção / Eventos extremos
Culturas afetadas
Perda de produção
Período de ocorrência
Freqüência Tendência Como prevenir.
Qtd.
Unidade (0 = sempre possível, 1 = Janeiro, 2 = Fev...)
(por mês ou aumentar ano) (+) ou diminuir (‐)
(pergunta aberta, descrever estratégias)
(pergunta aberta)
1 2 3 4
(Ex. Intercropping,%)
Códigos unidades de AREA 1= ha 2= tarefa 3= m2
Códigos unidades de PESO 1 = saca 2 = kg 3 = ....
Como lidar quando acontece. O que costuma fazer para evitar os riscos de perda de produção desta cultura devido a estes fatores?
*Poi ser preços, climáticos, pragas ou outros que afeitam prod.
Ex. adaptação por preços baixos
‐ Guardar produção (vender em diferentes tempos) ‐ Venda direita ao consumidor final ‐ Contratos arranjados (produção comprometida) ‐ Manter bens como poupança em caso de necessidade ‐ Vender ou prestar algum bem
2
a. Quais os dois riscos na lista acima que o Senhor considera mais graves para o bem‐estar da sua família (Checar se consistente com o prejuízo/freqüência e caso não pedir explicação)? Quanto? (Usar técnica de determinar disponibilidade a pagar ID do risco Caso exista um seguro para cobrir o prejuízo, o Senhor iniciando com valor muito baixo até ele desistir..anotar escala priorizado estaria disposto a pagar algo pelo mesmo? utilizado: Importante usar valores que fazem sentido em relação so prejuízo esperado!!!), ex. R$ 5/mês...R$ 10/mês ....R$ 15/mês.... 1. 2. b. Para os dois riscos priorizados acima, de que forma o Senhor acha que o governo deveria contribuir para melhorar a situação e qual seria a entidade de governo responsável? b.1) Tipo de apoio____________________________________________________________________ b.1.1) Entidade______________________ b.2) Tipo de apoio____________________________________________________________________ b.2.2) Entidade______________________ c. Pertence a alguma associação, cooperativa, igreja que poderia ajudar caso tiver problemas na sua produção? (S/N) _________________ (Qual)______________________________________ d. Para os dois riscos priorizados acima, o que o Senhor acha que a sua comunidade poderia fazer para melhorar a situação? d.1.) Tipo de ação _______________________________________________________________________________ d.2.) Tipo de ação _______________________________________________________________________________ 3
Códigos unidades de AREA
2. Rendimento. Excluindo esses eventos extremos quais seriam rendimentos mais freqüentes (normais), mais baixos e mais altos:
1= ha 2= tarefa 3= m2
Códigos unidades de PESO 1 = saca 2 = kg 3 = ....
Produto
Indique a área cultivada para as seguintes culturas
Área
Quantos anos em 10 Rendimento mais é que tem Freqüente (normal) rendimento normal, mais Freqüente?**
Unidades
Qtd.
Unidades
Rendimento mais Baixo
Freqüência
Qtd.
Quantos anos em Quantos anos em 10 é 10 é que tem que tem rendimento Rendimento mais Alto rendimento mais Baixo? Alto?
Unidades
Freqüência
Qtd.
Unidades
Raízes
Farinha
Milho
Feijão
Freqüência
** É necessário controlar se esta probabilidade é realmente a mais elevada...para um melhor controlo introduz‐se três colunas em vez de somente duas. O rendimento mais freqüente não é o mesmo que o rendimento médio!!!
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3. Preços Quantos anos em 10 é que tem preço mais Freqüente? **
Preço mais Freqüente
Produto
Preço mais Baixo*
Quantos anos em 10 é que tem preço Baixo?
Preço mais Alto
Raízes
Farinha
Milho
Feijão
Quantos anos em 10 é que tem preço Alto?
** Tomar atenção que esta probabilidade tem que ser a mais alta.
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Códigos para membros da familia 1 = Homem adulto 2 = Mulher adulta 3 = >18 anos 4 = Idoso > 60
4. Mão de obra na roça
2. Por favor descreva a distribuição do trabalho para as operações indicadas
1.
FAMILIA
POR FAVOR DESCREVA para AS OPERACOES necessárias na TOTAL DIAS Dias por roça pessoa
Unidade de área ou produção
TROCA
Frequência Meses de 1= J, 2 = execução F, 3 = da M, .. atividade
Pessoas da família trabalhando
Dias
Nr. Pessoas
(escreva os códigos)
broca
derruba
queima
capina
colher*
beneficiar*
*, ** Pode ser por sacas ou produto e não por área † Perguntar se é o dia todo ou só meio dia
Tem diferença no valor da diária paga por cada operação na roça? (S/N) __________ Em caso negativo, indique o valor da diária geral. _________________________ Em caso afirmativo, indique na tabela as diferentes diárias para cada operação. Operação Diária Tem algum tempo onde a mão de obra não estã disponível? (S/N) _________________ Caso positivo, quando? _____________________________________________________
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5. Insumos para roça 1. Códigos de UNIDADES 1= KG 2= ... 3=
2. Por favor especifique a quantidade (Q) dos insumos utilizada para cada cultura C1= ; C2= ; C3 = C4= ; C4 = ; C5 = (pergunte na coluna primeira para a cultura 1 (C1) até ao fim da tabela, a seguir passe para a cultura 2, 3, etc) C1‐ Q1
FERTILIZANTES 1.
2. 3. 4.
5.
6.
Unid.
C2‐Q2
Unid.
C3‐ Q3
Unid.
Unid.
C5‐Q5
Unid.
C4‐Q4
PESTICIDAS 7.
HERBICIDAS
8.
INSECTICIDAS
9.
OUTROS
10.
11.
12. SEMENTES
13. DIESEL
14.
15.
16.
OUTROS INSUMOS
17. 18.
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II. CASTANHA E CUMARU 1. Caracterização 1. uma ou outra arvore na propriedade (s castanhal) 2. castanhal próprio (regras de aceso bem definidas) 3. propriedades dos outros (negociado, uso tradicional) 4. propriedade da União 1. De onde tira esses produtos? _________________ 2. Distancia a lugar onde tira esses produtos (horas de viagem) a.____________________________ e especificar meios de transporte a lugar de colheita b._______________________________________ 3. Tem alguma prática para melhorar a produtividade? qual? _________________________________________________________________ 4. Que fatores fazem que o Senhor decide ir para tirar castanha e cumaru? ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1
2. Produção 1. Num ano normal tem algun periodo onde da mais ou menos, como seria isso (tentar dividir em periodos) e que atividades realiza
JAN 666 Atividades Castanha 1 2 3 4 5 Cumaru 1 2 3 4
FEV 666
MAR 666
Sazonalidade na extração da castanha e cumaru ABR MAI JUN JUL AGO SET 66 6 56 56 55 55
OCT 65
NOV 6
DEZ 66
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Ano normal 2. Em período X ________, num ano normal quantas vezes o Senhor vai a tirar castanha? A._______________ B. E quanto tempo ficam tirando castanha?(dias trabalhados)__________________ 3. Em período Y _______, vezes que vai a tirar castanha? A.__________________________ B. E quanto tempo que fica tirando castanha? (dias tr.)______________________ 4. Nos últimos 10 anos, quantos anos vc acha que eram normais?__________________ Ano ruim 5. Nesse tempo, teve também anos ruim para tirar castanha? (S/ N) __________ , caso positivo quantas vezes em 10 anos? ___________________ 6. Nesse caso, como muda isso, em período X ________, num ano ruim quantas vezes o Senhor vai a tirar castanha? A._______________ B. E quanto tempo ficam tirando castanha?(dias trabalhados)__________________ 7. Em período Y _______, vezes que vai a tirar castanha? A.__________________________ B. E quanto tempo que fica tirando castanha? (dias tr.)______________________ Ano bom 8. E anos bons nestes últimos anos, quantos em 10 anos? _____________________________________ 9. Nesse caso, em período X ________, num ano bom quantas vezes o Senhor vai a tirar castanha? A._______________ B. E quanto tempo ficam tirando castanha?(dias trabalhados)__________________ 3
7. Em periodo Y _______, vezes que vai a tirar castanha? A.__________________________ B. E quanto tempo que fica tirando castanha? (dias tr.)______________________ 3. Preços
Preço mais Frequente
Produto
Quantos anos em 10 é que tem preço mais Frequente? **
Preço mais Baixo*
Quantos anos em Quantos anos em 10 é que tem preço Preço mais Alto 10 é que tem Baixo? preço Alto?
Castanha
Cumaru
** Tomar atenção que esta probabilidade tem que ser a mais alta. O preço mais freqüente não é o preço médio!!
Esses preços são preços que o Senhor recebeu onde? ________________ 1. Mata 2. Casa 3. Beira do rio Tem um preço mínimo por o qual o Senhor vai tirar, caso que sim quál é? ______________________________________________________________ 4
4. Mão de obra Como o Senhor faz a colheita da castanha? Com quem? Quantas pessoas ajudan geralmente? (# pessoas) _________________________________________________ O Senhor contrata pessoal (S/N), quantas diarias? _______________________________(convertir a um ano) Em caso positivo, indique o valor da diária geral _________________________
Códigos para membros da familia 1 = Individual 2 = Coletivo 3 = Familia 4 = .............
Em caso afirmativo, indique na tabela as diferentes diárias para cada operação. Operação Diária Tem algum tempo onde a mão de obra não estã disponível? (S/N) _________________ Caso positivo, quando? _____________________________________________________ O Senhor tem outro tipo de gastos neste proceso de colheita e venda de castanha/ cumaru? Quais? _______________________________________________________________________________________ 5
5. Riscos (Perguntas para identificar eventos extremos, provocando perdas de produção e renda) 1. O senhor já perdeu safra e renda devido a alguns eventos extremos não previsíveis como por ex.: fogo, desmatamento, etc? ___________(S/N) 2. Em caso afirmativo, indique por favor os eventos extremos e como se prejudicó Perguntar se tiver perdas por: ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ a. Desmatamento; b. Perda ao aceso da _______________________________________________________________________________________________________ terra (ex. fazendas); c. Mudança no aceso a terra 3. Caso de ter acontecido, o que o Senhor fez?
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6
6. Quais os dois riscos na lista acima que o Senhor considera mais graves para o bem‐estar da sua família (Checar se consistente com o prejuízo/freqüência e caso não pedir explicação)? ID do risco Caso exista um seguro para cobrir o prejuízo, o Senhor Quanto? (Usar técnica de determinar disponibilidade a pagar priorizado estaria disposto a pagar algo pelo mesmo? iniciando com valor muito baixo até ele desistir..anotar escala utilizado: Importante usar valores que fazem sentido em relação so prejuízo esperado!!!), ex. R$ 5/mês...R$ 10/mês ....R$ 15/mês.... 1. 2. 1. Para os dois riscos priorizados acima, de que forma o Senhor acha que o governo deveria contribuir para melhorar a situação e qual seria a entidade de governo responsável? 1.a) Tipo de apoio_________________________________________b)Entidade______________________ 2.a) Tipo de apoio_________________________________________ b) Entidade______________________ 2. Pertence a alguma associação ou cooperativa, igreja que poderia ajudar caso tiver problemas na sua produção? (S/N) _________________ (Qual)______________________________________ 3. Para os dois riscos priorizados acima, o Senhor acha que a sua comunidade poderia fazer para melhorar a situação? 1.a) Tipo de ação _______________________________________________________________________________ 2.a) Tipo de ação _______________________________________________________________________________ 7
III. PESCA Horas de viagem desde comunidade a Alenquer ____________________________Meio de transporte ________________________ 1. Recurso vivo explorado Lugar de pesca Peixes nobres Lugar de pesca 1. Rio 2. Lago na várzea 3. Igarapés 1. ___________________ _________________ 4. Outros __________ 2. ___________________ _________________ Peixes de escama Bagres Outros 3. ___________________ _________________ 4. ___________________ _________________ 7. Dourada 1. Curimatã 11. Tambaqui 5. ___________________ _________________ 8. Piramutaba 2. Pescada 12. Acari 9. Filhote 3. Pacu 13. Mapará 10. Surubim 4. Tucunaré 14. Pirapitinga Peixe vendido em massa 5. Aracu 15. Jaraqui 6. ___________________ _________________ 6. Pirarucu 16. Aruanã 17. Camarão 7. ___________________ _________________ 8. ___________________ _________________ 9. ___________________ _________________ 10. ___________________ _________________ 2. Frota Frota 1. O Senhor é dono da alguma embarcação? (S/N) 1. Barco a motor 2. Barco geleiro 2. Características da embarcação utilizada na pesca____________ 3. Bote 4. Rabeta 5. Bajara 3. Capacidade da embarcação (kg ou ton) _________________ 6. Canoa 4. Valor da embarcação (R$) ___________________________ 1
Grupo 1. Redes de emalhe 2. Rede de lance 3. Tarrafa 4. Linhas 5. Arte de fisgar 6. Artes fixas (matapi)
3. Prática ou arte de pesca Grupo
*
Características / Descrição
Instrumento de pesca
Instrumento de pesca 1. Malhadeira 2. Puçá‐de‐arrasto 3. Tarrafa 4. Espinhel 5. Caniço 6. Matapi
Alvo (Tipo de peixe)
(capacidade captação de peixe, tamanho da malhadeira, etc.)
Periodo no ano (Meses 1= J, 2 = F,..)
Recibe seguro desemprego (defeso)? (S/N) _____________________________ Outros tipos de apoio do governo? ________________ quanto é por quanto tempo? _____________________________________________ • •
*Defeso 15 Nov‐ 15 Mar.: Mapará (Hipophtalmus endentatus), Curimatá (Prochilodus nigricans), Branquinha (Curimatá amazônica), Pacú (Myleus spp.), Fura calça (Pimelodina flavipinnis), Jatuarana (Brycon spp.), Pirapitinga (Piractus brachypomus), Aracu (Schizodon spp.) Pirarucu (01/12 – 31/05), Acari (01/12–30/03), Tambaqui (01/10–31/03)
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4. Esforço da pesca Duração da viagem (dias/hr.) ________________ Com que freqüência vai a pescar (viagens por mês)?______________ Em quais mêses? _______________________________ Quantas pessoas pescan na embarcação (canoa, etc.)? ____________________________________ Quem vai a pescar (total de pessoas)? ______________________________________ 1 = homens adultos, 2 = mulher, 3 = >18 anos, 4 = Idoso O Senhor contrata pescadores (S/ N) _________________Se afirmativo quantas diárias paga? ___________________________ Tem diferença no valor da diária paga por cada operação? (S/N) __________ Em caso negativo, indique o valor da diária geral. _________________________ Em caso afirmativo, indique na tabela as diferentes diárias para cada operação. Operação Diária Tem algum tempo onde a mão de obra não estã disponível? (S/N) _________________ Caso positivo, quando? _____________________________________________________ 3
5. Riscos / Estratégias de adaptação e prevenção O senhor já perdeu renda devido a alguns eventos extremos não previsíveis como por ex.: cheia, enchente, seca? ___________(S/N) Em caso afirmativo, indique por favor os eventos extremos, o tipo de peixe e as respectivas perdas de produção. Fatores que afetam a produção
Tipo de peixe
Perda de produção (Qtd.ou R$/ dia ou mês)
Período de Freqüência Tendência ocorrência
Como prevenir. Como lidar quando O que costuma fazer acontece para evitar os riscos de perda de produção destes peixes devido a estes fatores?
(0 = sempre possível, 1 = Janeiro, 2 = Fev...)
(por mês / ano) aumentar (+) ou diminuir (‐)
(pergunta aberta, descrever estratégias)
(pergunta aberta)
1
2
3
4
5
4
6. Quais os dois riscos na lista acima que o Senhor considera mais graves para o bem‐estar da sua família (Checar se consistente com o prejuízo/freqüência e caso não pedir explicação)? Quanto? (Usar técnica de determinar disponibilidade a pagar ID do risco Caso exista um seguro para cobrir o prejuízo, o Senhor priorizado estaria disposto a pagar algo pelo mesmo? iniciando com valor muito baixo até ele desistir..anotar escala utilizado: Importante usar valores que fazem sentido em relação so prejuízo esperado!!!), ex. R$ 5/mês...R$ 10/mês ....R$ 15/mês.... 1. 2. 1. Para os dois riscos priorizados acima, de que forma o Senhor acha que o governo deveria contribuir para melhorar a situação e qual seria a entidade de governo responsável? 1.a) Tipo de apoio_________________________________________b)Entidade______________________ 2.a) Tipo de apoio_________________________________________ b) Entidade______________________ 2. Pertence a alguma associação ou cooperativa, igreja que poderia ajudar caso tiver problemas na sua produção? (S/N) _________________ (Qual)______________________________________ 3. Para os dois riscos priorizados acima, o Senhor acha que a sua comunidade poderia fazer para melhorar a situação? 1.a) Tipo de ação _______________________________________________________________________________ 2.a) Tipo de ação _______________________________________________________________________________ 5
Codigos para unidades de peso 1 = peixes 2 = kg 3 = ...
7. Rendimento. Excluindo esses eventos extremos quais seriam rendimentos mais freqüentes (normais), mais baixos e mais altos (por dia de trabalho) Quantos anos em 10 é que tem rendimento normal,
Rendimento mais Freqüente (normal)
Quantos anos em 10 é que tem rendimento Rendimento Baixo
mais Freqüente?**
Baixo?
Rendimento Alto
Alto?
Quantos anos em 10 é que tem rendimento
Freqüência
Qtd.
Unidades
Freqüência
Qtd.
Unidades
Freqüência
Qtd.
Unidades
Peixe de alto valor comercial (nobre):
Peixes para venda em massa:
Peixe para subsistência:
Peixe ornamental:
Camarão
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8. Preços Preço mais Frequente
Por espécie, perguntando as 5 ou 10 mais importantes para sua renda e consumo
Quantos anos em 10 é que tem preço mais Frequente? **
Preço mais Baixo
Quantos anos em 10 é que tem preço Baixo?
Preço mais Alto
Quantos anos em 10 é que tem preço Alto?
** Tomar atenção que esta probabilidade tem que ser a mais alta. O preço mais freqüente não é o preço médio!!
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9. Insumos para pesca 1
2
Por favor especifique a quantidade (Q) dos insumos utilizada para cada especie só em caso de que varie
C1= ; C2= ; C3 =
Códigos de UNIDADES
1= kg
C4= ; C4 = ; C5 =
2= No. de peixe
3= Outros
(pergunte na coluna primeira para a cultura 1 (C1) até ao fim da tabela, a seguir passe para a cultura 2, 3, etc)
Insumos 1
2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Gelo... Ferramentas do trabalho:
C1‐ Q1
Unid.
C2‐Q2
Unid.
C3‐ Q3
Unid.
C4‐Q4
Unid.
C5‐Q5
Unid.
Tem outro tipo de despesas, gastos (só da atividade mesma)? Caso positivo, quais? __________________________________________________________________________________________________
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IV. OUTROS RISCOS (não relacionado ao sistema de produção) 1. Impactos de riscos e estratégias de prevenção e adaptação Tipo de risco Prejuízo Período de Freqüência Tendência Como prevenir ocorrência
Como lidar quando acontece
1 = Transporte ruim 3= Falta de armaz. 4 = Sit. fundiária 5 = Políticas de gov ‐ 6 = Mão de obra (+ / ‐) 7 = Doenças ______ 8 = Acidentes 9 = Outros
(em R$ ou dias e numero de pessoas imobilizadas, gastos em hospital)
(0 = sempre possível, 1 = Janeiro, 2 = Fev...)
(por mês ou ano)
aumentar (+) (pergunta aberta, descrever / diminuir (‐) estratégias)
(pergunta aberta)
1
2
3
4
5
3
1
2. Quais os dois riscos na lista acima que o Senhor considera mais graves para o bem‐estar da sua família (Checar se consistente com o prejuízo/freqüência e caso não pedir explicação)? Quanto? (Usar técnica de determinar disponibilidade a pagar ID do risco Caso existir um seguro para cobrir o prejuízo, o Senhor iniciando com valor muito baixo até ele desistir..anotar escala priorizado estaria disposto a pagar algo pelo mesmo? utilizado: Importante usar valores que fazem sentido em relação so prejuízo esperado!!!), ex. R$ 5/mês...R$ 10/mês ....R$ 15/mês.... 1. 2. 3. Para os dois riscos priorizados acima, de que forma o Senhor acha que o governo deveria contribuir para melhorar a situação e qual seria a entidade de governo responsável? 1.a) Tipo de apoio_______________________________________________________________________________ b) Entidade______________________ 2.a) Tipo de apoio_______________________________________________________________________________ b) Entidade______________________ 4. Pertence a alguma associação ou cooperativa, igreja que poderia ajudar caso tiver problemas na sua produção? (S/N) _________________ (Qual)______________________________________ 5. Para os dois riscos priorizados acima, o Senhor acha que a sua comunidade poderia fazer para melhorar a situação? 1.a) Tipo de ação _______________________________________________________________________________ 2.a) Tipo de ação _______________________________________________________________________________
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