7 February 2014
StarHub Ltd Steady earnings growth with 4.7% dividend yield SINGAPORE | COMMUNICATIONS | COMPANY RESULTS
Revenue declined 3% y-y from lower equipment sales; service revenue remains stable however Net profits increased 3% y-y due to higher NGNBN grants Final dividend of 5c per share declared; bringing total FY13 DPS to 20c Maintain "Accumulate”, with unchanged TP of S$4.52
Accumulate
Rating:
Maintained at Accumulate Target Price (SGD) 4.52 Forecast Dividend (SGD) 0.20 Closing Price (SGD) 4.23 Potential Upside 11.6%
StarHub announced its FY13 results on 6 Feb 2014. Net profits increased 3.2% y-y mainly from higher adoption grants for NGNBN take-up. EBITDA on service revenue increased to 32.9%, up from 32.3% in FY12. This was attributed to lower traffic expenses and equipment costs. Growth in mobile and fixed network services segments was offset by decline in Pay TV and Broadband revenue. Pay TV revenue was lower due to one-off gain from UEFA EURO event in 2012. Broadband price competition remains intense as discounts were offered on competitors' fibre broadband plans. 46% of postpaid subscribers on tiered data plans, up from 38% in 3Q13. Management guided growth to continue in mobile and fixed network services. It intends to maintain annual dividend payout of 20c per share in FY2014.
Company Description Sta rHub is the 2nd l a rges t Tel ecommuni ca ti ons compa ny i n Si nga pore. The compa ny provi des a broa d ra nge of mobi l e, pa y TV, broa dba nd a nd fi xed network s ervi ces . It opera tes a n extens i ve fi xed bus i nes s network a nd offers a hos t of medi a ri ch va l ue-a dded s ervi ces , s uch a s IPTV for commerci a l enti ti es a s wel l .
How we view this StarHub's results were inline with expectations. We continue to like StarHub due to its attractive dividend yield of 4.7% at current price. We remain positive on further growth in mobile from data monetising in Singapore.
Company Data Raw Beta (Past 2yrs weekly data)
0.47
Market Cap. (USD mn / SGD mn)
5739 / 7278
Ent. Value (USD mn / SGD mn)
6072 / 7699
3M Average Daily T/O (mn)
Investment Action We revised our estimates for FY14F earnings. We updated our DCF model with 0% terminal growth rate to reflect the growth nature of the industry over the long term. We maintain "Accumulate" rating with TP of S$4.52, with implied FY14F P/E multiple of 20.3x.
3.50
5
3.00
0
Volume, mn
STH SP Equit y
Major Shareholders 1. As i a Mobi l e Hol di ngs Pte Ltd 2. Ni ppon Tel egra ph & Tel ephone Co. 3. Bl a ckrock
Feb-14
*Forward multiples and yields aer based on current price and historical multiples and yields are based on historical prices
10
Dec-13
FY15F 2,590 401 0.23 18.2 0.10 n.m. 0.20 4.7%
4.00
Oct-13
FY14F 2,492 384 0.22 19.0 0.07 n.m. 0.20 4.7%
15
Aug-13
FY13 2,359 371 0.22 19.6 0.05 n.m. 0.20 4.7%
4.50
Jun-13
FY12 2,422 359 0.21 19.6 0.03 n.m. 0.20 4.9%
20
Apr-13
FY11 315 315 0.18 15.7 0.01 n.m. 0.20 6.9%
4.76
5.00
Feb-13
Key Financial Summary FYE Dec Revenue (SGD mn) NPAT, a dj. (SGD mn) EPS, a dj. (SGD) P/E (X),a dj. BVPS (SGD) P/B (X) DPS (SGD) Di v. Yi el d (%) Source: Bl oomberg, PSR es t.
1.6
Closing Px in 52 week range 3.86
STI rebased
(%) 56.4 10.0 1.4
Valuation Method DCF (WACC: 5.8%; termi na l g: 0.0%) Analyst Colin Tan col i nta nwh@phi l l i p.com.s g +65 6531 1221
Page | 1 MCI (P) 046/11/2013 Ref. No.: SG2014_0013
StarHub Ltd 7 February 2014 Results at a glance (SGD mn) FY13 Revenue 2,359 Servi ce revenue 2,229 EBITDA 733 EBIT 463 Net Income 371 Source: Compa ny, PSR
FY12 y-y (%) Comments 2,422 -3% Lower equipment sales 2,227 0% 720 2% 447 4% 359 3% In line with expectations
Primary growth driver - Mobile Mobile services remain the primary growth driver on StarHub’s earnings, contributing 52% of total revenue (Postpaid: 42%; Prepaid: 10%). FY13 mobile revenue increased 0.9% y-y at S$1,235 million due to higher customer base. Postpaid ARPU was lower q-q at S$69/mth due to higher subscriber base diluting the higher subscription revenue. Both postpaid and prepaid mobile data traffic continue to rise, leading to higher non-voice service contribution to ARPU at 47.9% (postpaid) and 20.8% (prepaid). With about half (46%) of its postpaid customers on the new tiered data plans, we are positive on better traction from data monetising in 2014. Fig 1. Est. Mobile Non-voice Revenue Vs Voice Revenue (S$mn) postpaid non-voice rev prepaid non-voice rev
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 -
postpaid voice rev prepaid voice rev
4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Source: Company, PSR est.
Increasing Pay TV subscriber base for the 2nd straight quarter StarHub added 2.1K to its subscriber base for 4Q13, reporting positive net add for the 2nd straight quarter since the availability of BPL contents cross-carried on StarHub cable TV platform. FY13 Pay TV revenue was lower 2.7% y-y due to lower ARPU (at S$52/mth) and advertising revenue. UEFA EURO event in 2012 also contributed to the lower Pay TV revenue. We expect higher Pay TV revenue in FY2014 from increasing subscriber base and possibly, from FIFA World Cup 2014 event should StarHub secure the broadcast rights. Fig 2. Pay TV Subscriber Base ('000) with average monthly Churn Rate (%) payTV subs
550
payTV churn (%)
1.4% 1.2%
545
1.0%
540
0.8%
535
0.6%
530
0.4%
525
0.2%
520
0.0%
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
Source: Company, Phillip Securities Research
Page | 2
StarHub Ltd 7 February 2014 Broadband ARPU declining Broadband price competition continues due to price discounts offered by competitors on their fibre broadband plans. Competitors also include new entrants such as MyRepublic and ViewQwest. This leads to decline in Broadband ARPU for 4Q13. Despite the intensive price competition, StarHub continues to increase its broadband customer base by 3K in the last quarter, likely due to its competitive advantage of bundling offers with Mobile and Pay TV plans. We believe broadband revenue to remain stable in FY14. Fig 3. Broadband ARPU (S$/mth) with Y-Y growth (%) broadband ARPU
47
broadband ARPU %y-y
4%
46
2%
45
0%
44
-2%
43
-4%
42
-6%
41
-8%
40
-10%
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
Source: Company, Phillip Securities Research
Fixed Network Services continues to grow FY13 Fixed network services revenue gain 3% y-y, from higher Data & Internet services as well as Voice services. Management would continue its focus to grow this revenue in the Enterprise space via enhanced service offerings and solutions to corporates. Fig 4. Fixed Network Services (S$mn) with Y-Y growth (%) Data & Internet Data & Internet %y-y
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
Voice services Voice services %y-y
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15%
-
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
Source: Company, Phillip Securities Research
Guidance for FY2014 Management guided for capex to be at about 13% of revenue for FY14. Capex would include S$40 million payment for the 2500 Mhz spectrum lots won from 4G spectrum auction in mid 2013. EBITDA margin on services revenue was guided to be at 32%.
Page | 3
StarHub Ltd 7 February 2014 Fig: FY13 Revenue Contribution (%) Equi pment Sa l es 6% Fi xed Network 16%
Fig: Operating Revenue (S$mn) with Y-Y growth (%)
Pos tpa i d 42% Mobi l e 52%
Broa dba nd 10%
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
29%
-
28%
Net profit
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 -
FCF
Net profit %y-y
FCF %y-y100%
80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
Fig: Mobile Subs ('000) with average postpaid monthly churn rate (%)
Fig: Mobile ARPU (S$/mth) *postpaid ARPU restated (ex. inbound roam) since 1Q12
postpaid churn (%) 1.4%
-
4Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q13 Fig: Pay TV Subs ('000) with average Pay TV monthly churn rate (%)
-15% 4Q13
0.0%
3Q13
900
-10%
2Q13
0.2%
1Q13
0.4%
950
4Q12
1,000
-5%
3Q12
0.6%
2Q12
1,050
10%
0%
1Q12
0.8%
4Q11
1,100
prepaid ARPU prepaid ARPU %y-y
5%
3Q11
1.0%
2Q11
1,150
1Q11
1.2%
postpaid ARPU postpaid ARPU %y-y
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 4Q10
1,200
Fig: Broadband Subs ('000) with average Broadband monthly churn rate (%)
payTV churn (%)
1.4% 1.2%
545
1.0%
540
0.8%
535
0.6%
530
0.4%
525
0.2%
520
0.0%
broadband subs
450 445 440 435 430 425 420 415 410 405
broadband churn (%)
1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
Fig: Fixed Network Services (S$mn) with Y-Y growth (%) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
1Q13
30%
100
Data & Internet Data & Internet %y-y
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%
4Q12
31%
200
550
3Q12
32%
300
payTV subs
2Q12
33%
400
1,250
1Q12
34%
prepaid subs
Broadband 12% Revenue %y-y
Fig: Net profit (S$mn), Free Cash Flow (S$mn) with Y-Y growth (%)
EBITDA service margin 35%
500
postpaid subs
Pay TV Equipment Sales
4Q11
600
EBITDA
3Q11
Service Revenue
2Q11
Fig: EBITDA (S$mn) with Service Revenue (ex. Equipment sales) (S$mn)
1Q11
4Q10
Prepa i d 10%
Pa y TV 16%
Mobile Fixed Network
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 -
Fig: Equipment Sales (S$mn) vs Costs (S$mn)
Voice services Voice services %y-y
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15%
-
Equipment Sales
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 -
Equipment Costs
sales/cost (%)60%
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
Source: Compa ny, PSR
Page | 4
StarHub Ltd 7 February 2014 FYE Dec Income Statement (SGD mn) Revenue EBITDA Depreci a ti on & Amorti s a ti on EBIT Net Fi na nce (Expens e)/Inc Other i tems As s oci a tes & JVs Excepti ona l i tems Profit Before Tax Ta xa ti on Profit After Tax Non-control l i ng Interes t Net Income, reported Net Income, adj.
FYE Dec Per share data (SGD) EPS, reported EPS, a dj. DPS BVPS
FY11
FY12
FY13 FY14F FY15F
2,312 2,422 2,359 2,492 2,590 676 720 733 785 824 278 273 270 307 326 398 447 463 478 499 (19) (16) (16) (16) (16) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 380 431 447 462 483 (64) (72) (77) (79) (82) 315 359 371 384 401 0 0 0 0 0 315 359 371 384 401 315 359 371 384 401
FY11 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.01
FY12 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.03
FY13 0.22 0.22 0.20 0.05
FY14F FY15F 0.22 0.22 0.20 0.07
0.23 0.23 0.20 0.10
FYE Dec FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F Cashflow Statements (SGD mn) CFO PBT 380 431 447 462 483 Adjus tments 279 215 154 201 218 WC cha nges 39 42 (7) (9) 80 Ca s h genera ted from ops 697 688 594 654 781 Others (1) 1 1 1 1 Cashflow from ops 696 689 595 655 782 CFI CAPEX, net (247) (273) (303) (312) (280) Others 2 5 3 3 3 Cashflow from investments (244) (268) (300) (310) (277) CFF Sha re i s s ua nce 2 1 1 1 1 Loa ns , net of repa yments (143) 25 0 0 0 Di vi dends (343) (344) (344) (344) (344) Others (26) 28 3 1 (19) Cashflow from financing (511) (289) (341) (342) (362) Net change in cash (58) 133 (46) 3 142 Effects of excha nge ra tes 0 (0) 1 0 0 CCE, end 179 312 267 270 412 Source: Compa ny Da ta , PSR es t
FYE Dec Balance Sheet (SGD mn) PPE Inta ngi bl es As s oci a tes & JVs Inves tments Others Total non-current assets Inventori es Accounts Recei va bl es Inves tments Ca s h Others Total current assets Total Assets Short term l oa ns Accounts Pa ya bl es Others Total current liabilities Long term l oa ns Others Total non-current liabilities Non-control l i ng i nteres t Shareholder Equity
FY11
FYE Dec Valuation Ratios P/E (X), a dj. P/B (X), a dj. EV/EBITDA (X), a dj. Di vi dend Yi el d (%) Growth & Margins (%) Growth Revenue EBITDA EBIT Net Income, a dj. Margins EBITDA ma rgi n EBIT ma rgi n Net Profi t Ma rgi n Key Ratios ROE (%) ROA (%)
FY11
Net Debt/(Ca s h) Net Gea ri ng (X)
762 424 0 0 3 1,188 37 301 0 179 17 535 1,723 75 703 125 903 588 210 797 0 23
15.7 n.m. 8.0 6.9%
FY12 791 397 0 0 3 1,191 28 266 0 312 12 618 1,809 0 728 151 879 688 198 886 0 44
FY12
FY13 857 381 0 0 0 1,238 43 278 0 267 24 612 1,850 0 754 148 902 688 178 866 0 83
FY13
FY14F FY15F 863 374 0 0 0 1,237 35 319 0 270 15 639 1,875 0 739 148 888 688 178 866 0 122
817 339 0 0 0 1,156 36 332 0 412 15 795 1,951 0 759 148 907 688 178 866 0 178
FY14F FY15F
19.6 n.m. 10.3 4.9%
19.6 n.m. 10.5 4.7%
19.0 n.m. 9.8 4.7%
18.2 n.m. 9.3 4.7%
3.3% 4.7% 12.3% 6.5% 16.3% 12.3% 19.8% 13.9%
-2.6% 1.8% 3.6% 3.2%
5.6% 7.2% 3.3% 3.5%
3.9% 5.0% 4.2% 4.4%
29.2% 29.7% 31.1% 31.5% 31.8% 17.2% 18.5% 19.6% 19.2% 19.3% 13.6% 14.8% 15.7% 15.4% 15.5% n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 17.9% 20.3% 20.3% 20.6% 20.9% 483 n.m.
376 n.m.
421 n.m.
418 n.m.
275 n.m.
*Forward multiples and yields aer based on current price and historical yields are based on historical prices
Page | 5
StarHub Ltd 7 February 2014 Ratings History Market Price Target Price
5.00 4.80 4.60 4.40 4.20 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80
Source: Bl oomberg, PSR
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
1 2 3 4 5 PSR Rating System Total Returns Recommendation Rating > +20% Buy 1 +5% to +20% Accumul a te 2 -5% to +5% Neutra l 3 -5% to -20% Reduce 4 <-20% Sel l 5 Remarks We do not ba s e our recommenda tions entirel y on the a bove qua ntitative return ba nds . We cons i der qua l i tative fa ctors l i ke (but not l i mi ted to) a s tock's ri s k rewa rd profi l e, ma rket s entiment, recent ra te of s ha re pri ce a ppreci a tion, pres ence or a bs ence of s tock pri ce ca tal ys ts , a nd s pecul a tive undertones s urroundi ng the s tock, before ma ki ng our fi na l recommenda tion
Page | 6
StarHub Ltd 7 February 2014 Important Information This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd., 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00, Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101 (Registration Number: 198803136N), which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“Phillip Securities Research”). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this document by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately. Phillip Securities Research shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. 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Page | 7
StarHub Ltd 7 February 2014 This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. Please contact Phillip Securities Research at [65 65311240] in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. This report is only for the purpose of distribution in Singapore. Contact Information (Singapore Research Team) Management Chan Wai Chee (CEO, Research - Special Opportunities) Joshua Tan (Head, Research - Equities & Asset Allocation)
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SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited No 10, Prince Alfred Tower, Alfred House Gardens, Colombo 3, Sri Lanka Tel: (94) 11 2429 100 Fax: (94) 11 2429 199 Website: www.ashaphillip.net/home.htm
SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore 179101 Tel +65 6533 6001 Fax +65 6535 6631 Website: www.poems.com.sg
INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, C‐Block, 2nd Floor, Modern Center , Jacob Circle, K. K. Marg, Mahalaxmi Mumbai 400011 Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Fax: (9122) 6667 9955 Website: www.phillipcapital.in
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