Ryan Wilson 17118 64th Ave. N Maple Grove, MN 55311 612.802.6541
[email protected] September 15, 2015 Dear Wayzata Board Member, Thank you for your service to our community. I’ve served on several public and private boards (businesses, home owner associations, athletic association, planning commissions, church financial committees etc.), and appreciate the difficult decisions that need to be made and the need to balance a variety of interests. I’m writing today to share some insight with you that you might find useful as you weigh the decision to change school start times. I apologize up front for the length of it, but I think you find it helpful based on my background and experience. I grew up in the Wayzata School district, attended Plymouth Creek, Wayzata East, as well as both the old and new high school. I specifically moved back to the district a couple of years ago to raise our family and we currently have 4 kids in the district. My career has been as a medical researcher. I’ve designed and conducted hundreds of research studies, been published in one of the most renowned medical journals in the world (Journal of the American Medical Association), have worked with regulatory authorities around the world, such as the FDA, to design studies to obtain approvals for new medical therapies. I have participated in the drafting of clinical practice guidelines, which is a key component of evaluating what types of evidence and publications should influence medical decisions (e.g. at what age and for what group of women do mammograms benefit, or what patients and at what dosage should patients be prescribed cholesterol lowering medications). In evaluating research throughout my career, together with other researchers, we’re obligated to reply on peer reviewed journal published data which is the gold standard for scientific thought development, and cannot use unpublished (or self-published) papers in our decision making processes. Even with that standard, much published research is excluded through a metholodgical process to use only the most relevant data in developing guidelines and consensus opinions. With this experience of critically evaluating what types and levels of research evidence should and should not be considered in decision making processes that first raised my concerns and caused me to dig deeper into the research (and process) that drives the recommendations being made by the superintendent. I realize that it’s a challenge to look at all the information that is available and determine if it is for broad consumption and truly a scientific study. I reviewed the study that is being shared and cited by Dr. Chace Anderson and I have serious questions regarding the method of research and its extrapolatability to our
school district. I have provided a review of the research in the addendum attached to this document. I feel compelled to mention this because the research is being used as a crutch for making the recommendations and some very significant research on the impact at the elementary level was omitted. Making public policy decisions based on limited or biased data is dangerous as the early educational lives of many children are based on it. I urge you to read the enclosed review. The key conclusions being:
Although it has been shown that adolescents in general may not be receiving enough sleep, the research regarding the impact of changing start times to allow more sleep is poorly designed and unable to support the conclusions it makes Even if the research into adolescent start times is assumed to be valid, the research itself shows the impact of changing start times to be inconsistent, the impact small in scale, and in measures that are not issues in our school district Most importantly, other, well respected and published research DOES show that earlier start times and sleep deprivation for elementary students has a significant negative impact on outcomes - its well established that successful early education is much more important to long term outcomes than later interventions
In addition, I have provided some data from our district that provides a more direct, yet anecdotal evidence (in similar vein to the anecdotal study cited) as well as start times from other area elementary schools, at the end of the summary. Thank you for your time and consideration of my concerns. I look forward to discussing this further and would be happy to expand further on any of the comments in this letter. Kind Regards,
Ryan Wilson 17118 64th Ave. N Maple Grove, MN 55311 612.802.6541
[email protected]
Assessment of the superintendent’s recommendation to start elementary schools at 720am and high school at 9am Introduction: There are very few actions the school board could take that have a more substantial, significant, and potentially detrimental impact on Wayzata students and family life than shifting elementary bus pick up times to almost 2 hours earlier. Many families’ days and weeks are scheduled around the status quo; job and career decisions are made based on drop off and pick up times for children. This memo outlines the flaws in the data used to justify a later high school start times and highlights the negative impacts of early elementary start times, something unfortunately absent from the discussion. Because of this data, as well as the flawed decision making process to come to this recommendation, I’m asking that interested parents become involved in an effort to share these concerns with the school board and ask them to vote down this proposal. Below I have highlighted some of the key considerations, while leaving out many opinions based on personal preference, and focusing on the facts. I hope these are helpful in providing a fuller and more transparent picture of the impact of what’s being considered and some of the issues with how the superintendent’s recommendation came to be. Key Considerations: There is little doubt that high school students do not get as much sleep as they should. The reasons vary widely depending on social-economic factors and personal lifestyle choice. It is also clear, that all things equal, there may be some benefit to more sleep, the magnitude of the impact and where it manifests itself (health, social dynamics, grades) is still an unanswered question. Below are some key points in reviewing the information that was (and was not) relied upon in making this recommendation. 1) The superintendent is providing references to research that supports his conclusion (the UMN study in particular), and excludes research that is to the contrary. The research to the contrary clearly shows that earlier start times are DETRIMENTAL to elementary school students. For your assistance, I have provided the links below which are from credible journals for further information. a. http://phys.org/news/2014-08-elementary-school-early-youngchildren.html b. http://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/edu-a0037195.pdf c. http://journals.lww.com/jrnldbp/Abstract/2000/02000/Parents__Ra tings_of_Everyday_Cognitive_Abilities.5.aspx 2) The research that is being cited in support of this position is based on anecdotal evidence (only 8 schools which were selectively picked by the researcher with no mention of selection methodology), from an unpublished
study (except for being posted to a university website), with significant design flaws (the statistics used would not be acceptable in peer reviewed research), thus biasing the outcome by “fishing” for significant outcomes when initial measures were unsuccessful. a. On the contrary, the research being overlooked has been validated and published in a respected peer reviewed scientific and medical journals, and includes hundreds of schools and a sound methodology. This data shows that later high school start times have a marginal benefit, but that the corresponding earlier elementary start times have a detrimental impact (see above links). 3) Even with the flaws in the study used to support the superintendent’s position, the study’s author’s conclusions are much grander than their own data in the details of their report supports. Several of conclusions regarding the benefit of increases attendance rate actually showed no difference in the majority of schools and in the schools that it did show a difference, it was marginal - for example 4 schools showed NO difference in attendance times, and 2 that did showed an increase from 95.0% to 95.8% and 94.5% to 94.7%. 4) THE MOST IMPORTANT DATA APPEARS ON PAGE 41 OF THE RESEARCH a. When looking at standardized test scores pre and post, 21 of the measures showed NO change, 2 showed a decrease and 3 showed an increase. The vast majority of the outcomes showed no impact on start times. 5) The superintendent provides selective links to two advocacy groups, rather than to medical or scientific groups. The American Academy of Sleep Medicine(AASM) is an actual medical society that provides practice guidelines an recommendations to physicians. One of the speakers at the upcoming information meeting is a former president of AASM. The AASM acknowledges sleep deprivation in adolescents is an issue, however its own recommendations, which are based (as all medical society recommendations) on a rigorous process for reviewing the evidence and research (and only including sound research) DO NOT recommend earlier start times, but rather behavior modification recommendations. Nor do they recommend shifting sleep deprivation to elementary age students. (http://www.aasmnet.org/articles.aspx?id=873) a. Even with that said, the non-medical society advocacy groups pushing for later high school start times say nothing about early elementary start times and to the contrary, their own recommendations state that K-5 students need 2-3 more hours of sleep than high school students. The superintendent’s proposal reduces the amount of available time for sleep, or requires parents to shift bedtime to ~2 hours earlier, significantly reducing family times and ability to participate in sports and after school activities.
b. As discussed above, the actual benefit is marginal if any and when present is in specific measures, most of which are not of significant concern to schools like Wayzata: absenteeism and tardiness, which are not significant issues compared to other school districts of different demographics. 6) One of the primary reasons school districts across the nation have not chosen to switch high school and elementary school times is that it considered unsafe for 5-10 year olds to be at the bus stop prior to the sun rising, whereas the high school students (many of which drive) are much unlikely to have accidents at bus stops (it is much more likely that a 5-10 year old might accidentally run into the street through play, distraction, etc. than a high school student, and when combined with no daylight and snow covered roads, this is a significant and real concern). At a 645 bus time, this would mean that over 60% of days the bus will pickup before the sunrises. It is alarming that the schools report does not make a single statement on the concern for safety of elementary students. 7) Over the past few years, research has shown the importance of high quality early education. Setting kids on the right path early ensures they’re successful in high school. This was the rational provided when we were asked to expand kindergarten to full day and as well as the rationale used in advocating for universal pre-k to be provided by public schools. In light of this, it seems short sighted to slight children in their key formative early years for marginal (see above) benefit for adolescents in their later years. a. High school student’s sleep patterns are much more self-manageable – they modify their own behaviors to increase sleep and wakefulness, whereas a 5 year old is much more susceptible to their bodies biology. b. Lack of sleep creates a performance issue for high school students - it can quickly be corrected with behavior modification (i.e. more sleep before a test for example), and as students mature and priorities change, they can self-initiate healthy sleep patterns to correct these performance issues (i.e. the effects are not long lasting). c. To the contrary, sleep deprivation at the 5-10 year old range has a permanent, lifelong negative impact that cannot simply be corrected by sleeping more in later years. There are biological changes that occur at these formative years as the brain and personality develops. Issues that arise such as ADD can set a child back for several years requiring costly interventions and may never see the child catch-up. 8) The superintendent provides a list of partial pros and cons that support the desired conclusion, but leaves off several significant pros and cons that should also be considered. a. One of the biggest CONS is the need to radically rearrange a family’s schedule, both work and after school activities. As mentioned above, the main goal appears to be focused on the benefit (marginal) for high
school students with very little regard to the impact on elementary school students and family dynamics (see next bullet for details). i. Currently one parent can go into work early while the other parents can get the children on the bus and be at work by 9am. Then the parent working early can leave early and get their kids off the bus at 415pm, allowing both parents to work and not need to rely on child care. Most employers will not accommodate a flexible schedule for parents to leave by 230pm to be home by 3 to get their kids off the bus. Thus many families have stated they would need to have their kids in after school care. This, combined with an earlier bedtime, reduces the amount of family time (in addition to eliminating morning family time). ii. Additionally, several families benefit from the fact that high school students are home first and can supervise younger siblings allowing them to avoid after school care and keeping kids with their families b. Unfortunately, the report doesn’t mention the need to expand after school child care and its additional resources and funding to accommodate the change in parents work and child care patterns necessitated by earlier start times. In addition, this morning time can be quality family time, whereas reducing that time and replacing it in the afternoon with after school care reduces the net amount of family time, something show to be strongly correlated with positive outcomes. c. Additionally, the proposal may be all for naught. A significant number of high school students participate in after school activities (which is a good thing). As these hours are atypical among high schools, in order to accommodate them, a “zero hour” period is added at schools with later start times so that they can leave early for events. This zero hour would defeat the point of starting later and have the detrimental effects of earlier starts on elementary students, thus reducing or eliminating the stated marginal benefits. d. There is an assumption, not backed up by data, that elementary kids are “already up early anyways.” Waking up at 730am might be early relative to a 9:00am start time, but that’s very different than needing to wake up at 6am to get ready for a 645 bus time For a 5 year old attending kindergarten, this is quite a change from those that might have been still napping (research shows 25% of 4 year olds still napped). Younger students need much more parent involvement to get ready and get on the bus, and need more time; older students are more autonomous and able to manage their own time better. 9) Even with all the above flaws, the cherry picking of research, utilizing advocacy groups to appear as neutral third parties, and relying a flawed study that shows marginal if any improvement, there is NO research or
information provided that can assure parents that a change in the elementary school times won’t negatively impact their children, whereas there is a strong base of published data to the contrary Conclusion: Not only is the proposal unsound, it is potentially UNSAFE for elementary students developmentally, academically, and physically (i.e. bus stop safety). I’m urging all interested parents to attend the Oct 1 meeting and the Oct 12 board meeting and am asking the school board to vote down this proposal. Our children and families are too precious to put into a social experiment based on the current level of evidence. I fear we will be back here in 2-3 years needing to address the significant drop in elementary test scores, and asking parents to again rearrange lives to support a change back to the status quo. As a potential alternative, the board could consider the following: 1) More Input: Form a task force with PTA members and parents, continue to evaluate sound medical evidence 2) Wait and See: Wait for additional schools in MN (including those demographically and academically similar to Wayzata) to shift their start times and evaluate the impact (this will also allow for alignment of after school activities on a more state-wide level). 3) Best of Both Worlds: in spite of a lack of strong evidence to support later start times at the high school level, a win-win could be achieved by adding additional buses to accommodate high school students starting at 9am (or any time that made sense as it would be independent of current bus constraints) by adding more busing for the kids that don’t currently drive to high school and maintaining the current middle school and elementary school start times. Wayzata has always been a community willing to support its students through increased funding and if the argument for early high school start times was compelling enough, this proposal would be a “winwin”.
Additional Data: Wayzata Elementary Schools have two schools with early start times (the proposed start times would be even earlier). When comparing these schools within our own district, a negative difference between the early and late school can be seen. This is anecdotal and a small sample, but ironically less so that the research being heralded as the rationale for this sweeping change. School Kimberly Lane Plymouth Creek Gleason Lake Greenwood Oakwood Birchview Sunset
Start Time 9am 9am 9am 735am 735am 9am 9am
Avg. Score (MCA-III) 94.79 92.58 92.04 85.93 81.46 80.65 73.76
Average Test Scores 9am schools: 86.76 Average Test Scores 735am start: 83.70 There is a 3.5% reduction in test scores as a result of earlier start times.
This is of course almost as equally as biased of analysis of the 8 selected schools by the researcher. The fact that its 100% of the population as opposed to 7 cherry picked schools actually lends it more validity, and it’s more applicable as it’s our own demographic and somewhat homogenous.
When controlling for demographics, and acknowledging the demographic differences within the school, looking at Kimberly Lane vs Greenwood which have very similar demographics (beyond race, including medium income, household size, etc.), there is a 9.3% reduction in test scores!
When compared to the small potential benefit of later high school start times, perhaps a better focus would be on improving scores among the elementary schools which all feed into the high school.
Elementary Start Times For Schools in UMN Study District New (Later) High School Start Times Mahtomedi (MN) St. Louis Park (MN) South Washington County (MN)
800am 820am 835am
Boulder Valley (CO)
805am
Teton County (WY)
855am
Elementary Start Times for West Metro Schools District High School Start Times Edina 825am Eden Prairie
750am
Maple Grove
730am
Minnetonka
800am
Orono Westtonka
740am
Corresponding Elementary Start Times (# included when different start times exist) 915am 915am 755am (4 schools) 840am (8 schools) 920am (4 schools) 750am-755am (6 schools) 800-840am (23 schools) 750am, 8am, 805am, 810, 825am, 830am Elementary Start Times 830am (2) 915am (4) 840am (2) 900am (1) 920am (2) 850am (8) 930 (9) 800am(2) 840am(4) 910am 855am
