The New Mindset that Can Make Commercial Aviation Safer J. Neil Weintraut April 2, 2015 All of the commercial air travel tragedies that have occurred in recent history need never occur again. This will happen when we shed a centuriesold mindset about automation and aviation. Minutes before Germanwings flight 9525 flew into a side of a mountain, the airplane’s automation knew that the plane would devastatingly crash, killing all humans on board, and could have protected them from this fate even with a presumably suicidal pilot at the controls, but it did not do anything to prevent this from happening. Why not? Minutes before Asiana Airlines Flight 214 flew into the seawall at the edge of the San Francisco airport (SFO), the airplane’s automation had the ability to either tell the pilots exactly what they needed to do to avoid this tragedy, or even fly the airplane itself in perfect configuration right onto the runway. The automation did not do this. Why not? Minutes or possibly hours before Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 flew to a fate or destination that remains a mystery to this day, the airplane’s automation could have prevented this tragedy from occurring as well. It did not. Why not? When Asiana Airlines flight 214 was landing at SFO, the ancient 1950svintage glide slope was inoperative, but the modern 21stcenturyvintage GPS landing systems was operative, and that system had the ability to take their airplane to right “over the numbers” on the runway and there would have been no tragedy. Yet this system either was not used or was not in the airplane. Why not? The answer to these and other unsettling questions is that the way that we operate, regulate, talkabout, and even design our commercial air travel, is based on an ancient mindset that pilots and automation are at odds. This mindset is compounded by the romantic but similarly centuryold notion of a dashing pilot in absolute command of the plane. And the agencies and industry that we
expect to proactively protect us from these tragedies, instead passively wallow in this mindset as well. The iPhone, flight simulators, GPS, automated drones that deliver explosive payloads to within feet of terrorists located halfway around the world, selfdriving cars, GPS “fencing” of our dogs, faulttolerant components and systems, softwarevalidation, and billions of other technical and societal engineering advances, have made this belief obsolete…. and selfishly dangerous. There airline tragedies don’t “merely” harm the passengers and their families, or happen to “other people”, but affect our civilization and worldpeace — the 9/11 tragedy led to one country being invaded, which in turn fueled in whole or inpart militant Islam terrorism affecting the world at large, and air tragedies such as the disappearance of Malaysia Airline flight #370 give some demented validation and advertising of this terrorist cause. It’s Already Here There are three ingredients that call for society to take a new attitude about automation and flying. 1. Passengers are killed and harmed by human error and terror . Substantially all of the air travel tragedies going back to 9/11 or even before, were caused by either human error or human terror. 2. All of the robust automation for an entirely different mindset has been in place for a decade or more . Jump into any small modern airplane that you can find at most any airport, and you will see that airplane has all of the information and automation to fly itself from takeoff to touchdown. Flight directors visually projectout the flight path, and tell the pilot the position he or she needs to fly the plane. Terrainawareness systems display terrain hazards with vivid red and yellow displays of terrain, and project and warn of disastrous flight paths. Navigation systemcoupled autopilots can literally fly every segment of a flight without once requiring the pilot to touch the control yoke other than takeoff and landing. TCAS systems track every other airplane around yours and anticipate potential collisions. Weather systems display and warn in realtime, of hazardous weather. Fuel totalizers jealously track the fuel on board to within a fraction of a gallon. To be clear, all of the above and more, is commonplace automation available on airplanes whose total cost, is but a roundingerror of the cost of a commercial airliner. In fact, technology is so advanced, that substantially all of the instrumentation that pilots have used to safely fly airplanes around the world and in wars since the beginning of aviation, is now available as iPhone apps and these apps are more accurate and reliable than anything pilot’s could have ever hoped for. The New Mindset that Can Make Commercial Aviation Safer
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At a different level, the flight simulators that we use every day to train pilots is not only an example of how this automation has been readily available for a decade or more, but are electronic libraries of every imaginable flight scenario that can be used to train and test this automation literally far more than is possible to train the pilots that fly our airplanes today. 3. We have the technology to apply this automation . Every time you do a Google search you can see this technology. Type in a few letters on Google and its automation attempts to anticipate your needs, and responds with helpful and possible suggestions or even answers. That is, the automation is applied in a way that is helpful and does no harm. We have the societal and engineering technologies to apply automation to workwith and help humans, and yes, be failsafe. It’s here where there is a literally fatal gap between the mindset of contemporary commercial aviation, and the application of modern automation. Consider, for example, the terrainawareness automation discussed above. That system knows knows better than even the pilot both if a fatal collision with terrain will occur and how to avoid it. But shackled by the prevailing mindset, all this system does, is sitby passively, yelling warnings, while for example, a presumably suicidal Germanwings pilot flew his airplane into the side of a mountain, killing all aboard it. It was entirely possible to have had the automation in that plane prevent this from happening. If you are wondering why it didn’t do this, you both now understand this outdated mindset of commercial aviation, and are encouraged to post something on Twitter, contact your Congressperson, or whatever else than can help expedite a change in the aviation industry. The automation and technology to apply it to protect people is all there; the mindset isn’t. As the above anecdote illustrates, the automation could have and can be applied in ways that protect humans from hurting themselves or others. Conversely, this also means that the modern application of automation is nothing like the automationversushumans mindset sensationalized by movies such as Metropolis, 2001 A Space Odyssey, or Jurassic Park. Let the Conversation Begin The future is impossible until someone shows you the way. Below is a highlevel sketchout of 21stcentury aviation automation. It offers the start of the conversation in that it shows both how, and that it is possible, to design, operate, and regulate the The New Mindset that Can Make Commercial Aviation Safer
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application of modern automation, such that none of the tragedies that have occurred since 9/11 need occur again or in another form. The essential factor is thinking about the form and relationship of automation to pilots differently sensibly not hysterically. 1. Pilots are needed and empowered . Even with the most futuristic of automation, and in the tradition and wonder of the uniquelyhuman instincts and skills of Captain Chesley Sullenberger (“Sully”), I for one, hope that there will always be two pilots in the cockpit. The reality is that birds get ingested in jet engines, electronics can have a total system failure, deer run onto runways just as a plane is to land, and unpredictable scenarios perhaps even with the automation itself do happen, and human pilots are the one’s to deal with it. This also maintains the appearance, comfort, and fact, for people of a having a dashing pilot in command of their plane. 2. Problemsolving solutions conveyed to the pilot. Flying an airplane entails coordinating multiple configurations and conditions, yet automation is still a patchwork of isolated or poorlyintegrated systems. This setup that is so bad, that right now in the very airplanes that you fly on, the automation both gives pilots conflicting information, and has caused pilots to make errors. This mess was readily apparent in the cockpit voice and flight recordings of the Asiana Airlines flight 214 tragedy. Again this is a legacy of the mindset of keeping automation passive and suppressed. An entirely different approach is so potent that it is essentially selfevident. Instead of having a bunch of different systems barking disparate pieces of information to the pilots oblivious to the other flightfactors and automation, take the same information and have the automation formulate a coordinated solution that achieves a flight goal (not the least of which is to not crash the airplane). This seems so obvious to do, it begs the question as to why it isn’t being done. I pause to note, that this particular “automation” is not actually automating anything, per se, but is instead merely providing the pilots with a useful and safe answer for the pilots to then evaluate, implement, or decide otherwise. I believe that the fact that his mere solutionsuggestion form of automation, hasn’t already The New Mindset that Can Make Commercial Aviation Safer
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been overwhelmingly adopted and implemented, speaks to how backward the mindset is in the design, operation, and regulation of commercial aviation. 3. There is an override system . Compared to the passive role that automation has been relegated to, with this new mindset or enlightenment, automation is viewed as an ally in flight safety and success, and accordingly it has a more pronounced role. However, save for the extreme case of terrorists, the humans have final control. Specifically, there is a dualbutton system that pilots can use to override any of the automation’s suggestions or control. Dual button in part, because tragedies have been caused by one pilot quietly or unilaterally overriding the very automation that would have save their flight or lives. Instead, not only would two pilots have to agree that the automation should be overridden, but this system is done with this new mindset and all the follows with it. Case in point would be where the airplane is being flown into the side of a mountain, such as was the case in Germanwings flight, or being flown to a part of the globe either where the plane would run out of fuel, or to a region that is not part of world intended by that flight. In these scenarios, the automation would assertively tell the pilots: “Hey you’re going to crash into the mountain so unless both of you pilots override me, I’m going to fly the plane to prevent this from happening”, or “Hey, you’re going to run out of fuel, or you are enroute to a some destination that is outside your allowable region, so similarly, I’m going to take us to an airport before we run out of fuel.” That is, this is very different than the present setup where, for example, the terrain awareness system is relegated to merely counting down the distance until impact as the plane is flown into a mountain. Then we have a much safer airplane. The wisdom of two pilots, rather than one, is employed to evaluate whatever situation has arisen, and moreover, both of these pilots are further aided with the automation’s explicit encapsulation of the flightissue and proposed solution. And this safer airplane still can be flown by the pilots just as it always was. This singular aspect of a modern automation system, would have prevented the Germanwings flight 9525 tragedy, and as well as likely avoided the Asiana Airlines flight The New Mindset that Can Make Commercial Aviation Safer
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214 tragedy. 4. Successbased automation. The automation is applied to achieve the goal of successfully completing the flight. For example, the automation knows how much fuel it has and how far it can travel with that fuel. So the automation is applied such that it will ensure that the airplane uneventfully lands at some airport before it runs out of fuel. Add to this, for example, “fencing” wherein a say, the automation limits a domestic flight to only being able to fly within the United States. To be clear, this automation is not “absolute” but looselycoupled in that it is overseeing an overall mission, but allows all of routine assignments and deviations that occur from Air Traffic Control or other factors. That is, it complements exactly what occurs today. What instead it is doing, is ensuring that the flight completes safely. This also guards against new and bizarre attacks on pilots, notably people on the ground temporarily blinding pilots with simple laser pointers a predicament which occurs during the most vulnerable phase of flight, namely, as the plane is landing. This successbased automation is not only a specific function, but embodies an entirely different relationship and mindset between pilot and plane. The plane is the pilot’s ally rather than a complex bucking bronco that must be corralled by the pilot. 5. Terrorist Button. There is never no risk, but the modern application of automation as summarized above, can all but eliminate another 9//11 or other takeover of an airplane, including just discouraging people from even trying. Namely, given that we apply in airplanes, the successbased automation as described above, a “terrorist button” can then be installed such that once activated, the automation will simply assure that the plane successfully and uneventfully lands regardless of what a terrorist or other individual intent on overtaking the plane does to have the plane or pilot do otherwise. This could even be backedup with a groundbased “terrorist command” to the airplane as well. That is, upon learning of any attempt to takeover the plane be it some ruckus in the The New Mindset that Can Make Commercial Aviation Safer
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cockpit or the terrorist attempting to slipthrough the open cockpit door as one pilot exits to go to the bathroom, the flying pilot can merely slap the “terrorist button” and there’s nothing that the terrorist or hijacker can do to commandeer the plane. Once pushed, the plane itself will safely land the plane at some routine airport no flying into downtown NYC or Washington DC allowed. The terrorist button just detailed is one of the specific applications of automation for the safety of humans. But it also presents a good example or mental exercise to get ones brain to appreciate the need and sensibility of a new approach to automating commercial aviation. Namely, this button poses deciding between one or the risk of one of two outcomes. The one outcome is a terrorist or hijacker commandeering an airplane, potentially with erstwhile unimaginable consequences and fatalities. The other outcome is to have the automation complete the flight safely. This choice frames and begs for this matter of applying modern automation to commercial aviation, to be considered and decided. That is, automation has its risks and controversy that is easy for the media, Pilot’s Unions and other vested interest to impulsively and emotionally resist. But the facts are: (i) that humans are the cause of harm to other humans and themselves in flying; (ii) the automation has advanced way beyond what is needed to entirely fly an airplane; (iii) the technology of applying this automation for the safety of humans and without harm to humans is in our hands, and most significantly, (iv) the choice between tragedy of another Germanwings flight 9525 tragedy or 9/11, or the “risk” of applying modern automation to avoid it, is a pretty easy one. From the day that Congress orders the FAA to adopt this new mindset toward passenger safety, it will take five or more years for this new level of safety to be available on the flights that you take. Five years is actually a very short period of time when it comes to the FAA, so if five years seems too long to close these glaring gaps in safety, then all the more to press the industry and government sooner than later. Also even though improves safety, the aviation industry will likely only make this change if they are required to do so indeed, reportedly both U.S.based Honeywell and Europeanbased Airbus each recently pursued such automation but then scraped it for lack of interest. The change in mindset has to come from outside the industry. Postscript: One other and perhaps ironic, cause for adopting a new mindset about automation’s role in aviation is that, especially in the United States, the safety of commercial passenger air travel has been so thoroughly pursued, that applying modern automation is the next, if not only, means, to breakthrough addressing the otherwise few but unsolvable human causes of air travel tragedies. The New Mindset that Can Make Commercial Aviation Safer
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J. Neil Weintraut is a Silicon Valley veteran and former private pilot. Neil can be reached at:
[email protected]
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