Retail Research
TrendSpotter
Let’s get technical
12 May 2014
Top pick for the day: Swiss Market Index
Regional Technical Team Kong Seh Siang T: +60 (3) 2261-9076 E:
[email protected] Nabil Fikri Noor Iskandar Hashim T: +60 (3) 2261-9079 E:
[email protected] Patricia Sumampouw T: +62 (21) 515-1330 E:
[email protected] Fajar Wahyudi T: +62 (21) 515-1330 (375) E:
[email protected] Teerasak Tanavarakul T: +66 (0)2657-9231 E:
[email protected]
**Please note that there will be no Trendspotter on 13rd May 2014 due to a public holiday in Malaysia. Trendspotter will resume on the14th of May
End of the road? The ending diagonal on the Swiss Market Index (SMI) is still ongoing but… it is likely on its fifth and final leg of its th zigzag pattern from the 2009 lows. The view from our previous call (see 19 March issue) is still intact as prices are now on its fifth wave of the diagonal pattern. The current move up could continue on towards 8,716, where wave (v) is equal in length to 0.618x of wave (iii). The wedge resistance comes in at about the 8,820 levels while 8,850 is a reverse Fibonacci target. So in the near term, as long as prices stay above 8,235 and the critical support at 8,090, we can expect higher prices for the SMI. And if our count is right and this up leg being the fifth and final move, we expect a major top to form in the not too distant future. A break below 8,235 would be a good warning that the trend may be changing while a close below 8,090 would likely suggest that prices are likely to fall back to retest the June 2013 low of 7,247.
ST Outlook (0-1mth) LT Outlook (6-12mths)
R2 R1 Last Price (local) S1 S2
R2 R1 Last Price (local) S1 S2
KLCI
FSSTI
HSI
JCI
SET
1,867
3,252
21,863
4,898
1,377
►▲ ▲
► ►
► ►▲
►▼ ►
▼ ►
Ancom Buy 0.680 0.640 0.575 0.535 0.475
Sino Grandness Food Industry Sell 0.780 0.715 0.675 0.640 0.495
PICC Property & Casualty Buy 11.30 11.20 10.56 10.10 9.75
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Sell 10525 10325 10125 9900 9525
Gunkul Engineering Sell 12.80 12.50 12.50 12.00 11.40
Power Root Buy 2.23 2.17 1.95 1.83 1.71
Tuan Sing Holdings Sell 0.380 0.365 0.340 0.320 0.315
Heritage International Holdings Buy 0.73 0.68 0.60 0.53 0.50
Bank Tabungan Negara Buy 1200 1150 1125 1100 1050
SNC Former Buy 19.50 19.00 18.10 18.00 17.80
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
Commodities / Indices… Indices Indices
Last
Dow Jones
Currencies % chg Ytd % chg
Currencies (Spot)
Last
% chg Ytd % chg
16,583.34
+0.2%
+0%
US Dollar Index
79.86
-0.1%
-0%
S&P 500 Index
1,878.48
+0.2%
+2%
Australian Dollar
0.9359
-0.1%
+5%
Nasdaq Index
4,071.87
+0.5%
-3%
Canadian Dollar
1.0897
-0.0%
+3%
Euro Stoxx 50
3,184.09
-0.6%
+2%
Euro
1.3757
-0.0%
+0%
Germany's DAX
9,581.45
-0.3%
+0%
Japanese Yen
101.85
-0.0%
-3%
UK's FTSE 100 Japan's Nikkei-225
6,814.57
-0.4%
+1%
Danish Krone
5.4255
+0.0%
-0%
14,199.59
+0.3%
-13%
British Pound
1.6858
+0.0%
+2%
Shanghai SE Composite Index
2,011.14
-0.2%
-5%
Swiss Franc
0.8869
+0.0%
-1%
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index
21,862.99
+0.1%
-6%
Singapore Dollar
1.2491
+0.0%
-1%
5,460.84
-0.3%
+2%
South Korean Won
1,024.45
-0.0%
-2%
22,994.23
+2.9%
+9%
Taiwan Dollar
30.15
-0.1%
+1%
Singapore's Straits Times Index
3,252.13
+0.1%
+3%
Hong Kong Dollar
7.7517
-0.0%
-0%
Taiwan TAIEX
8,889.69
-0.5%
+3%
Malaysian Ringgit
3.2277
-0.0%
-1%
Korea's KOSPI
1,956.55
+0.3%
-3%
Indonesian Rupiah
11,532.00
-0.0%
-5%
Malaysia's FBMKLCI
1,866.72
+0.2%
-0%
Thai Baht
32.62
-0.0%
-0%
Indonesia's JCI
4,898.14
+0.8%
+15%
Indian Rupee
60.03
-0.0%
-3%
Thailand's SET
1,377.37
-0.1%
+6%
Philippines Peso
43.64
+0.0%
-2%
Philippines' PCOMP
6,847.26
+1.2%
+16%
China Renminbi
6.2275
-0.0%
+3%
Australia's ASX 200 Index India's BSE Sensex 30
Global Commodities Global Commodities ThomReuters/JefferiesCRB
Last
Most Actives % chg Ytd % chg
Most Active Malaysia
Last
% chg Ytd % chg
304.57
-0.5%
+9%
PDZ HOLDINGS BHD
0.18
-2.7%
1,283.59
-0.4%
+6%
HUBLINE BHD
0.05
+0.0%
-18%
19.10
-0.3%
-2%
TALAM TRANSFORM
0.10
-5.0%
+46%
WTI Crude Oil (US$/barrel)
100.07
+0.1%
+2%
MALAYSIAN AIRLIN
0.21
-4.5%
-32%
Brent Crude Oil
107.89
-0.1%
-3%
NAIM INDAH CORP
0.13
+13.0%
+18%
4.52
-0.3%
+7%
308.90
+0.2%
-9%
HANKORE ENVIRONM
0.09
-18.5%
-19%
1,487.00
+1.2%
+13%
CHARISMA ENERGY
0.05
+0.0%
-38%
41.18
+0.1%
+6%
MEMSTAR TECH LTD
0.02
-11.1%
-10%
487.30
+1.4%
+11%
ICP LTD
0.01
+40.0%
-30%
Sugar Futures
17.20
-0.2%
+5%
WILMAR INTERNATI
3.21
-3.9%
-6%
Cocoa Futures
2,864.00
-1.0%
+6%
Most Active Hong Kong
Coffee Futures
183.90
-5.9%
+66%
ROMA GROUP LTD
0.07
+13.3%
-48%
Corn Futures
507.50
-1.7%
+20%
CN CULTURE GP
0.35
-5.5%
-81%
Wheat Futures
722.50
-1.7%
+19%
CHINA TYCOON BEV
0.13
-15.5%
+47%
Live Cattle Futures
138.05
+0.1%
+3%
CHINA CONST BA-H
5.30
-0.6%
-9%
GCL-POLY ENERGY
2.17
+6.9%
-10%
Gold Spot (US$/oz) Silver Spot $/Oz
Natural Gas Futures Copper Futures Soybeans Futures Soybean Oil Futures Soymeal Futures
Cotton Futures Palm Oil Futures (3th month) Orange Juice Futures Coal Futures
+140%
Most Active Singapore
92.36
-0.7%
+9%
2,567.00
+0.5%
-3%
160.45
-0.5%
+18%
SENTUL CITY TBK
158.00
-5.4%
+1%
63.68
-1.2%
+11%
ALAM SUTERA REAL
530.00
+3.9%
+23%
TRADA MARITIME
1,860.00
+0.5%
+17%
ANEKA TAMBANG
1,265.00
+5.4%
+16%
255.00
-3.4%
+32%
NATURAL PARK PCL
0.05
-16.7%
-17%
LIVE INC PCL
0.33
-2.9%
+0%
INTL ENGINEERING
0.03
+50.0%
+0%
JASMINE INTL PCL
7.90
-1.3%
+18%
PAN ASIA FOOTWR
1.06
-9.4%
+80%
Most Active Indonesia
KAWASAN INDUS JA Most Active Thailand
2
Retail Research
Crossroads
Market Spotlight
12 May 2014
Regional Technical Team
Dow Jones Industrial Average (16,583.34)
R2: 16,631 R1: 16,565 S1: 16,312 S2: 16,015
The Dow is now testing its key resistance levels of 16,40016,600. A new all time closing high th was formed on 30 April. The choppy movements of late suggest to us that a large top may be taking place now.
The 50-day SMA held up prices over the past couple of days and the Dow is now retesting the upper end of the said resistance once more. Near term, look for a test of LT resistance trend line at 16,65716,666 and possibly even 17,150.
Below 16,312 would warn that more correction may be taking place. Anything below 16,015 would signal that a top may be in place. Source: Bloomberg
Deutsche Borse AG German Stock Index DAX (9,581.45)
R2: 9,721 R1: 9,645 S1: 9,367 S2: 9,166
The trend line from the 9,794 high is being tested once more, its fifth attempt to breakout.
We are now neutral on DAX at the moment but we would turn positive on a move above 9,645. This is mainly because of the triangle pattern formed since the 9,794 high.
Below 9,367 would suggest that a deeper correction may be taking place. Source: Bloomberg
3
Malaysia’s FBMKLCI (1,866.72)
R2: 1,882 R1: 1,869 S1: 1,845 S2: 1,838
Still bullish but the longer it takes to nudge higher, the weaker the rally would turn out to be. The longer term trend for the FBMKLCI allows for one more push to above the 1,872 closing high and likely a push above the 1,882 intra-day high in the coming days.
Prices could be forming a bearish ending diagonal here. At the rate it is going, we might even see a truncated final wave. However, for the time being, the odds of a truncated move are low but we cannot rule out the possibility of one.
The next target remains at 1,886 while the middle band resistance runs through 1,887-1,902 now. Below 1,845 would be ST negative while below 1,825-1,830 would likely have a negative impact on the 5-year bull run. Source: Bloomberg
Singapore’s Straits Times Index (3,252.13)
R2: 3,311 R1: 3,300 S1: 3,214 S2: 3,186
Neutral at the moment. Prices are caught between two gaps right now.
Prices have rebounded off the 3,214-3,235 gap and could soon retest 3,284. It may try to fill up the 3,287-3,311 gap soon.
On the flip side, filling up the lower gap of 3,214-3,235 would be the first signal that a correction may be taking place. Closing below 3,186 would the index back in consolidation mode. Source: Bloomberg
4
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (21,862.99)
R2: 22,855 R1: 22,474 S1: 21,715 S2: 21,436
It looks as though the bears have won this battle now that prices are back below the trend line from the 24,111 highs.
There are still no signs of a reversal just yet. Hence, we continue to favour a weaker trend for the HSI in the near term. Look th for prices to try to fill up the 24 March gap of 21,436-21,657. Below that gap would be a retest of the 21,100-21,200 levels.
Any bounce should see prices stay below 22,474 and also its SMAs. A move above 22,474 would turn us neutral in the immediate term. Source: Bloomberg
Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (4,898.14)
R2: 5,063 R1: 4,933 S1: 4,721 S2: 4,661
The recent price movements have been wild and traded between 4,700 and 4,933. Who would prevail in the battle at the current LT key resistance band of 4,7664,883?
It looks like the triangle view may be the ‘correct’ view after all. Prices just nudged a tad above the triangle resistance on Friday but a move above 4,916 would confirm the breakout. If that is the case, then expect prices to continue on higher towards 4,949-5,063 next.
Only a fall below the 4,800 levels would derail the current uptrend while a close below 4,721 would confirm the reversal. Source: Bloomberg
5
Thailand’s SET (1,377.37)
R2: 1,426 R1: 1,405 S1: 1,378 S2: 1,341
As warned on Wednesday, the SET has taken a dive from the 1,426 mini double top high.
Prices are now sitting just above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. We would not discount a minor bounce from here but the intermediate trend appears to be down.
Now, we await a fall in 5-waves from 1,426 to confirm the turn. Anything below the key support of 1,378 is also going to be negative. Below 1,341 would also confirm that the larger trend has turned down. Key resistance is at 1,426 while the 1,405 is a minor resistance. Source: Bloomberg
6
Retail Research
Malaysia
Trading Picks
12 May 2014
Nabil Fikri +60 (3) 2261-9079 –
[email protected], Kong Seh Siang +60 (3) 2261-9076 –
[email protected]
Ancom (ANC MK; RM0.575) – BUY
R2: 0.680 R1: 0.640 S1: 0.535 S2: 0.475
The stock moved higher after forming double bottom formation at RM0.535. We think more upside is likely if it remains above the said support level.
The indicators have been flat but holding above their respective support levels, probably suggesting more sideways movement ahead.
Aggressive traders may go long here with a stop placed below RM0.535. A move above RM0.64 should see prices move past the RM0.68 to test RM0.705-0.73 next. Source: Bloomberg
Power Root (PWRT MK; RM1.95) – BUY
R2: 2.23 R1: 2.17 S1: 1.83 S2: 1.71
The stock is consolidating in a large sideways pattern since the June high last year. Last Friday, prices closed above the 200-day. This breakout could be signaling that there is further upside ahead in the immediate term.
MACD has also turned up while RSI has pointing towards a more bullish near term.
Aggressive traders may go long now with a stop placed below RM1.83 low. Prices may retest RM2.17 and/or RM2.23 next. Source: Bloomberg
7
Retail Research
Singapore
12 May 2014
Trading Picks
Nabil Fikri +60 (3) 2261-9079 –
[email protected], Kong Seh Siang +60 (3) 2261-9076 –
[email protected]
Sino Grandness Food Industry (SFGI SP; S$0.675) – SELL
R2: 0.780 R1: 0.715 S1: 0.640 S2: 0.495
Over the past week, the stock tried to break above the previous support-turned-resistance trend line as well as its SMAs but failed. Prices have fallen off this trend line and hit our stop at S$0.67 (see 8th April issue).
We think prices may fall further as both MACD and RSI are below their neutral levels.
Traders should look to unload the stock now. Put a buy stop above S$0.715. A fall below S$0.64 will drag prices towards S$0.59 and may even test the triangle low of S$0.495. Source: Bloomberg
Tuan Sing Holdings (TSH SP; S$0.340) – SELL
R2: 0.380 R1: 0.365 S1: 0.320 S2: 0.315
Last Friday, the stock violated its previous resistance (now support) trend line. This break down is negative and could see prices correct further in the near term.
A bearish divergence can be seen on its MACD while RSI has continued on a downtrend.
Traders should look to sell now as prices may fall to retest the 200day SMA at S$0.32. A fall below S$0.32 could drag prices towards S$0.28-0.315 gap. This bearish view stands as long as S$0.365 is not breached. Source: Bloomberg
8
Retail Research
Hong Kong
Trading Picks
12 May 2014
Raymond Yap+60 (3) 2261 9072 –
[email protected]
PICC Property & Casualty (2328 HK; HK$10.56) – BUY
R2: 11.30 R1: 11.20 S1: 10.10 S2: 9.75
We see a short term trading opportunity here. We think that the rebound from HK$9.75 is not complete and there should be one more leg higher in the coming days.
MACD is already beginning to turn upwards and so is its RSI. The hammer-like candle from the HK$10.10 low is now the key support.
Aggressive traders may go long now with a stop below HK$10.10. We expect the next leg up to take prices above HK$11.20, likely into the HK$11.50-12.03 levels (its 5062%FR levels) Source: Bloomberg
Heritage International Holdings (412 HK; HK$0.60) – BUY
R2: 0.73 R1: 0.68 S1: 0.53 S2: 0.50
Prices have broken out of its consolidation triangle last week. We expect prices to continue on higher from here.
MACD is now back above the zero level while RSI is now at a new 2.5 months high.
Buy now with a stop placed below HK$0.53. The breakout move should take prices above the HK$0.68 levels and test the HK$0.73 level next. The following resistance is at HK$0.765-0.78. Source: Bloomberg
9
Retail Research
Indonesia
Trading Picks
Patricia Sumampouw +6221 515-1330 –
[email protected]
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ; Rp 10125) – SELL
R2: 10525 R1: 10325 S1: 9900 S2: 9525
During 95 days, Standard Error’s upward slopping 34.5 has been followed by decreasing linear regression volume=>decreasing upward support
Both Chaikin and Money Flow should decrease with 20% and 21.4% to -0.06 and 48, respectively
MACD looks stagnant +downward % predictions for Chaikin and Money Flow = today. BBRI found resistance at ST resistance trend line. Therefore, we see prices may fall further from here. Put a buy stop above IDR 10325. Meanwhile support level is at IDR 9900 and IDR 9525.
Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ; Rp 1125) – BUY
R2: 1200 R1: 1150 S1: 1100 S2: 1050
The stock climbed higher after rebounding off its previous resistance (now support) trend line. Prices may climb higher if the 1050 low holds.
MACD has stopped declining while RSI has turned up slightly.
Traders may go long here with a stop placed below 1100. Meanwhile resistance is at IDR 1150 and IDR 1200.
10
12 May 2014
Retail Research
Thailand
Trading Picks
Teerasak Tanavarakul -(66) 2 657 9236 -
[email protected]
Gunkul Engineering (GUNKUL TB; THB 12.50) – SELL
R2: R1: S1: S2:
The stock fell below both ST support trend line recently. Prices are now below its 30-day SMA. We believe prices may correct further from here.
Both MACD and RSI have turned lower signaling selling pressure is increasing.
We recommend selling into this stock which has resistance at 12.50 and 12.80. Meanwhile, it has support at 12.00 and 11.40. Buy back if price break up 13.00.
12.80 12.50 12.00 11.40
SNC Former (SNC TB; THB 18.10) – BUY
R2: R1: S1: S2:
The stock closed higher than 200day SMA last Friday. The breakout may be signaling that the bulls may try to take prices higher in the near term.
Both MACD and RSI have not showing any signs of weakness yet.
We recommend buying into this stock which has support at 18.00 and 17.80. Meanwhile, it has resistance at 19.00 and 19.50. Put a stop below 17.60.
19.50 19.00 18.00 17.80
11
12 May 2014
Trading Portfolio
12 May 2014
Kong Seh Siang +60 (3) 2261-9076 –
[email protected]
Portfolio Monitor Trading portfolio Stock
Country
Weighting
Shares Entry price
%
(local curr)
Current price (local curr)
Total cost (local curr)
Market value
Stop loss
Target
(local curr)
(local curr)
(local curr)
Position
Market value S$
Dividend S$
Profit/loss S$
Profit/loss
Forex
%
Existing stocks Prinsiptek Corp
MY
8%
60,000
0.315
0.355
18,900.00
21,300.00
0.315
0.430
LONG
8,256.45
-
930.30
12.7%
2.58
Gallant Venture
SP
6%
20,000
0.300
0.290
6,000.00
5,800.00
0.275
0.360
LONG
5,800.00
-
(200.00)
-3.3%
1.00
Common Splendor Int
HK
5%
50,000
0.680
0.670
34,000.00
33,500.00
0.615
0.900
LONG
5,440.52
-
(81.20)
-1.5%
6.16
Ornapaper
MY
6%
15,000
1.200
1.160
18,000.00
17,400.00
1.100
1.420
LONG
6,725.16
-
(231.90)
-3.3%
2.59
Kretam Holdings
MY
9%
40,000
0.600
0.615
24,000.00
24,600.00
0.585
0.690
LONG
9,461.57
-
230.77
2.5%
2.60
Ecofirst Consolidated
MY
3%
30,000
0.290
0.285
8,700.00
8,550.00
0.270
0.345
LONG
3,288.47
-
(57.69)
-1.7%
2.60
MPI
MY
8%
5,000
4.430
4.500
22,150.00
22,500.00
4.120
4.950
LONG
8,701.37
-
135.35
1.6%
2.59
New purchases my r Share sales
Cumulative dividend
-
Cumulative realised gains/profits
4,105.42
Cash balance + Cumulative dividend
57,157.51 Portfolio value
104,831.06
* Assuming no transaction cost inv olv ed.
Note: Trading Portfolio is a simulation that incorporates technical analysis as a means of stock-picking. The modus operandi is such that we select companies that were recommended in Trading Picks across the five countries (Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand and Indonesia). Trading, however, may not take place on a day-to-day basis but from time to time, we may up our stop loss point towards breakeven or even to turn it into a trailing stop. For a start, we have allocated SGD100,000 as our initial capital for this Trading Portfolio.
We make no changes to our portfolio today.
12
20 February 2012
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Monetary Authority of Singapore South Korea CIMB Securities Limited, Korea Branch Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service Taiwan CIMB Securities Limited, Taiwan Branch Financial Supervisory Commission Thailand CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd. Securities and Exchange Commission Thailand (i)
(ii)
As of 9 May 2014, CIMB has a proprietary position in the following securities (which may include but not limited to shares, warrants, call warrants and/or any other derivatives) covered or recommended in this report: (a) - Tuan Sing Holdings, Bank Rakyat Indonesia As of 12 May 2014, the analysts, Raymond Yap, Kong Seh Siang, Nabil Fikri Noor Iskandar Hashim, Patricia Sumampouw, Fajar Wahyudi and Teerasak Tanavarakul, who prepared this report, has / have an interest in the securities (which may include but not limited to shares, warrants, call warrants and/or any other derivatives) in the following company or companies covered or recommended in this report:: (a) -.
The information contained in this research report is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issue of this report. CIMB may or may not issue regular reports on the subject matter of this report at any frequency and may cease to do so or change the periodicity of reports at any time. CIMB is under no obligation to update this report in the event of a material change to the information contained in this report. This report does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. CIMB or any of its affiliates does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of any such information and opinion contained in this report. Neither CIMB nor any of its affiliates nor its related persons shall be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation amongst CIMB and its affiliates’ clients generally and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. The information and opinions in this report are not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell the subject securities, related investments or other financial instruments thereof. Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this research report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of the securities of company(ies) covered in this research report. The securities of such company(ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. Australia: Despite anything in this report to the contrary, this research is provided in Australia by CIMB Securities (Australia) Limited (“CSAL”) (ABN 84 002 768 701, AFS Licence number 240 530). CSAL is a Market Participant of ASX Ltd, a Clearing Participant of ASX Clear Pty Ltd, a Settlement Participant of ASX Settlement Pty Ltd, and, a participant of Chi X Australia Pty Ltd. This research is only available in Australia to persons who are “wholesale clients” (within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) and is supplied solely for the use of such wholesale clients and shall not be distributed or passed on to any other person. This research has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of the individual recipient. France: Only qualified investors within the meaning of French law shall have access to this report. This report shall not be considered as an offer to subscribe to, or used in connection with, any offer for subscription or sale or marketing or direct or indirect distribution of financial instruments and it is not intended as a solicitation for the purchase of any financial instrument. Hong Kong: This report is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by CIMB Securities Limited (“CHK”) which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) activities. Any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered in this report should contact the Head of Sales at CIMB Securities Limited. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. 13
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CHK has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CHK. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CHK. 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The research analysts, strategists or economists principally responsible for the preparation of this research report are segregated from the other activities of CIMB India and they have received compensation based upon various factors, including quality, accuracy and value of research, firm profitability or revenues, client feedback and competitive factors. Research analysts', strategists' or economists' compensation is not linked to investment banking or capital markets transactions performed or proposed to be performed by CIMB India or its affiliates. Indonesia: This report is issued and distributed by PT CIMB Securities Indonesia (“CIMBI”). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBI has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBI. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBI. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed in Indonesia or to any Indonesian citizens wherever they are domiciled or to Indonesia residents except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations. Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (“CIMB”). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMB has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMB. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB. New Zealand: In New Zealand, this report is for distribution only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of, and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money pursuant to Section 3(2)(a)(ii) of the Securities Act 1978. Singapore: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Research Pte Ltd (“CIMBR”). Recipients of this report are to contact CIMBR in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBR has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only. If the recipient of this research report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CIMBR accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report without any disclaimer limiting or otherwise curtailing such legal responsibility. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBR. As of 9 May 2014 CIMBR does not have a proprietary position in the recommended securities in this report. CIMB Securities Singapore Pte Ltd and/or CIMB Bank Berhad have/has had an investment banking relationship with Gallant Venture within the preceding 12 months. South Korea: This report is issued and distributed in South Korea by CIMB Securities Limited, Korea Branch ("CIMB Korea") which is licensed as a cash equity broker, and regulated by the Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service of Korea. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change, and this report shall not be considered as an offer to subscribe to, or used in connection with, any offer for subscription or sale or marketing or direct or indirect distribution of financial investment instruments and it is not intended as a solicitation for the purchase of any financial investment instrument. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only, and no part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB Korea. Sweden: This report contains only marketing information and has not been approved by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. The distribution of this report is not an offer to sell to any person in Sweden or a solicitation to any person in Sweden to buy any instruments described herein and may not be forwarded to the public in Sweden. Taiwan: This research report is not an offer or marketing of foreign securities in Taiwan. The securities as referred to in this research report have not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of the Republic of China pursuant to relevant securities laws and regulations and may not be offered or sold within the Republic of China through a public offering or in circumstances which constitutes an offer or a placement within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Law of the Republic of China that requires a registration or approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission of the Republic of China. Thailand: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Securities (Thailand) Company Limited (CIMBS). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBS has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBS. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBS. United Arab Emirates: The distributor of this report has not been approved or licensed by the UAE Central Bank or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is strictly private and confidential and has not been reviewed by, deposited or registered with UAE Central Bank or any other licensing authority or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is being issued outside the United Arab Emirates to a limited number of institutional investors and must not be provided to any person other than the original recipient and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Further, the information contained in this report is not intended to lead to the sale of investments under any subscription agreement or the conclusion of any other contract of whatsoever nature within the territory of the United Arab Emirates. United Kingdom and Europe: In the United Kingdom and European Economic Area, this report is being disseminated by CIMB Securities (UK) Limited (“CIMB UK”). CIMB UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and its registered office is at 27 Knightsbridge, London, SW1X 7YB. This report is for distribution only to, and is solely directed at, selected persons on the basis that those persons: (a) are persons that are eligible counterparties and professional clients of CIMB UK; (b) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the “Order”); (c) are persons falling within Article 49 (2) (a) to (d) (“high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc”) of the Order; (d) are outside the United Kingdom; or (e) are persons to whom an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) in connection with any investments to which this report relates may otherwise lawfully be communicated or caused to be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This report is directed only at relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this report relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Only where this report is labelled as non-independent, it does not provide an impartial or objective assessment of the subject matter and does not constitute independent "investment research" under the applicable rules of the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Consequently, any such non-independent report will not have been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and will not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. United States: This research report is distributed in the United States of America by CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, a U.S.-registered broker-dealer and a related company of CIMB Research Pte Ltd, CIMB Investment Bank Berhad, PT CIMB Securities Indonesia, CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd, CIMB Securities Limited, CIMB Securities (Australia) Limited, CIMB Securities (India) Private Limited and is distributed solely to persons who qualify as "U.S. Institutional Investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. This communication is only for Institutional Investors whose ordinary business activities involve investing in shares, bonds and associated securities and/or derivative securities and who have 14
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professional experience in such investments. Any person who is not a U.S. Institutional Investor or Major Institutional Investor must not rely on this communication. The delivery of this research report to any person in the United States of America is not a recommendation to effect any transactions in the securities discussed herein, or an endorsement of any opinion expressed herein. CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, is a FINRA/SIPC member and takes responsibility for the content of this report. For further information or to place an order in any of the above-mentioned securities please contact a registered representative of CIMB Securities (USA) Inc. Other jurisdictions: In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is only for distribution to professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.
RETAIL RESEARCH RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK* STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: The stock's total return is expected to be +15% or better over the next three months.
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better over the next three months.
HOLD: The stock's total return is expected to range between +15% and -15% over the next three months.
NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i) an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% (or better) or 15% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returns that will range from +15% to -15%; both over the next three months.
SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be -15% or worse over the next three months.
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse over the next three months.
CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)
15
