Understanding Broadband demand in Africa: Internet going Mobile Prof Alison Gillwald, University of Cape Town Executive Director, Research ICT Africa. Broadband as a Video Platform: Strategies for Africa, Lusaka, May 2012.

Data in this presentation are first round high level descriptive findings only and will be confirmed and developed over the next few months. Tuesday 29 May 12

Research ICT Africa RIA seeks to build an African evidence and knowledge base in support of ICT policy and regulatory processes, and to monitor and review policy and regulatory developments on the continent. Part of this effort is the generation of relevant information for policy makers and regulators. The RIA 2011 eAccess & Usage Survey delivers nationally representative indicators on household, individual and small business level. The survey uses national census sampling frames in co-operation with National Statistical Offices to deliver crucial data in a cost effective way.

Tuesday 29 May 12

Let them eat cellphones.. Soon just about everyone will be connected to some form of mobile...most homes passed by some network and have electricity. Broadband penetration driven by platform competition - cable and coaxial- satellite platform not pervasive Market/state Spectrum auction dividends for broadband roll out to underserved areas. Mobile voice substitution in absence of fixed voice, mobile data substitution in absence of fixed broadband. Wireless vs fixed cost average costs vs high installation costs... Diseconomies of speed for wireless and economies of speed for wireline Demands of HDTV and downloading audiovisual content Who pays? Private sector, State, PPP, GDD per capita. - South Africa, Botswana DESPITE THE BENEFITS OF MOBILE ACCESS THE GAP BETWEEN THOSE USING STRIPPED DOWN APPLICATIONS AND PULL SERVICES AND THOSE WITH HIGH SPEED ALWAYS ON NETWORKS

Tuesday 29 May 12

Total

Tuesday 29 May 12

Sample Size

15,300

6,200

21,500

Tuesday 29 May 12

Tuesday 29 May 12

Purpose Lack of data - decision relevant data for ICT policy making and regulation PARTNERSHIP ON MEASURING ICT FOR DEVELOPMENT: delivers all indicators required by the Partnership for household, individuals, and businesses COST EFFECTIVE: Using Enumerator Areas (EA) of national census sample frames and samples households, small business simultaneously minimizes costs. SCOPE :Apart from delivering ICT indicators required by international bodies the survey delivers data and analysis for several regulatory functions such as pricing regulation, number portability and universal access. LINKAGES:explains interactions between households, individuals and informal and smallbusinesses on ICT access and usage.

Tuesday 29 May 12

Household access

Tuesday 29 May 12

Tuesday 29 May 12

Household ownership of the following...

Tuesday 29 May 12

Household ownership of the following... 62,3

South Africa Ghana

76,6

12,9

1,5

Namibia

63,1

18,3

3,2

33,9

Cameroon

44,3

21,1

Rwanda

1,7

Ethiopia

3,0 0

72,0

40,6

17,7

Tanzania

71,8

54,1

8,0

Uganda

Tuesday 29 May 12

78,2

34,9

72,4

9,0 40,7

10,0 20

40

60

80

Household ownership of the following... 62,3

South Africa Ghana

76,6

12,9

1,5

Namibia

63,1

18,3

3,2

33,9

Cameroon

44,3

21,1

Rwanda

1,7

Ethiopia

3,0 0

72,4

9,0 40,7

10,0 20

Radio

72,0

40,6

17,7

Tanzania

71,8

54,1

8,0

Uganda

Tuesday 29 May 12

78,2

34,9

40 TV

Satellite Decoder or Cable

60

80

Household ownership of the following... 62,3

South Africa Ghana

76,6

12,9

1,5

Namibia

63,1

18,3

3,2

33,9

Cameroon

44,3

21,1

Rwanda

1,7

Ethiopia

3,0 0

72,4

9,0 40,7

10,0 20

Radio

72,0

40,6

17,7

Tanzania

71,8

54,1

8,0

Uganda

Tuesday 29 May 12

78,2

34,9

40 TV

Satellite Decoder or Cable

60

80

Household ownership of the following... 62,3

South Africa Ghana

76,6

12,9

1,5

Namibia

63,1

18,3

3,2

33,9

Cameroon

44,3

21,1

Rwanda

1,7

Ethiopia

3,0 0

72,4

9,0 40,7

10,0 20

Radio

72,0

40,6

17,7

Tanzania

71,8

54,1

8,0

Uganda

Tuesday 29 May 12

78,2

34,9

40 TV

Satellite Decoder or Cable

60

80

Household ownership of the following... 62,3

South Africa Ghana

76,6

12,9

1,5

Namibia

63,1

18,3

3,2

33,9

Cameroon

44,3

21,1

Rwanda

1,7

Ethiopia

3,0 0

72,4

9,0 40,7

10,0 20

Radio

72,0

40,6

17,7

Tanzania

71,8

54,1

8,0

Uganda

Tuesday 29 May 12

78,2

34,9

40 TV

Satellite Decoder or Cable

60

80

Strength of TV signal in your Area... 7,5

South Africa

16,5

74,7

Ghana

29,2

Uganda

76,8

12,2 10,9

Namibia

49,3

7,2

Tanzania

43,5 42,1

22,5

Cameroon

26,6

Rwanda

10,0

Ethiopia

73,0 60,3

28,0 20

No Reception

35,4 37,4 36,0

17,1

11,8 0

Tuesday 29 May 12

36,6 34,2

Weak (unclear picture/sound)

40

60 Strong (clear picture/sound)

80

Households with Internet Connection... 20

19,7

15

11,5 10

5 2,7 1,3 0

Tuesday 29 May 12

South Africa

Namibia

Ghana

Cameroon

0,9

0,8

0,7

0,5

Uganda

Tanzania

Rwanda

Ethiopia

Type of Internet connection used by Household... 80

75,3

59,8

60

56,4

54,8

40

34,8

22 20

16,3

4,9 0

ISDN

ADSL

3G South Africa

Tuesday 29 May 12

7,5

4,5 Mobile Phone Namibia

Wireless

Main Reasons for not having Internet connection in household... 43,6

South Africa

10,7

50

Ghana

18,7

27,7

Uganda

39,7 77,1

6,2

49,8

Cameroon

23,7

57,9

Rwanda

5,2 0

Cannot Afford it

Tuesday 29 May 12

45,3

14,5

Tanzania

Ethiopia

24,9

22,2

24,4

Namibia

30,9

25 Not Available in Area

26,3 22,7

41,3

16,2

16,9

40,7 50

75

Do not know how to use it

100

Mobile

Tuesday 29 May 12

15+ mobile phone owners 2007

2011 62,1%

South Africa

59,8% 59,5%

Ghana Namibia 27,0%

Uganda

21,5%

Tanzania Cameroon Rwanda Ethiopia

Tuesday 29 May 12

9,9% 3,2%

24,4% 18,3%

49,3% 56,1% 46,7%

35,8% 36,5% 44,5%

86%

15+ mobile phone owners 2007

2011 62,1%

South Africa

59,8% 59,5%

Ghana Namibia 27,0%

Uganda

21,5%

Tanzania Cameroon Rwanda Ethiopia

Tuesday 29 May 12

9,9% 3,2%

24,4% 18,3%

49,3% 56,1% 46,7%

35,8% 36,5% 44,5%

86%

Tuesday 29 May 12

Percentage of mobile owners with a prepaid SIM card

Tuesday 29 May 12

Percentage of mobile owners with a prepaid SIM card 97,4%

98,0%

99,5%

99,0%

91,8%

98,4%

90,1%

87,3%

a

uth

So

Tuesday 29 May 12

ic r f A

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Na

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nd a g

a

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Rw

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op i h t

Percentage of mobile owners with a prepaid SIM card 97,4%

98,0%

99,5%

99,0%

91,8%

98,4%

90,1%

87,3%

a

uth

So

Tuesday 29 May 12

ic r f A

a

Na

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U

nd a g

a n Ta

Prepaid SIM card

ia

n za

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a

n

o o r me a C

Rw

d an

E

op i h t

Percentage of mobile owners with a prepaid SIM card 97,4%

98,0%

99,5%

99,0%

91,8%

98,4%

90,1%

87,3%

a

uth

So

Tuesday 29 May 12

ic r f A

a

Na

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U

nd a g

a n Ta

Prepaid SIM card

ia

n za

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a

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o o r me a C

Rw

d an

E

op i h t

Percentage of mobile owners with a prepaid SIM card 97,4%

98,0%

99,5%

99,0%

91,8%

98,4%

90,1%

87,3%

a

uth

So

Tuesday 29 May 12

ic r f A

a

Na

bi mi

a

an h G

U

nd a g

a n Ta

Prepaid SIM card

ia

n za

ia

a

n

o o r me a C

Rw

d an

E

op i h t

Mobile Internet: handset & browsing South Africa

26,0% 30,7% 23,8% 28,5%

Namibia Ghana Tanzania Uganda Cameroon

13,4% 5,2% 7,7% 8,1%

Rwanda Ethiopia

6,5% 5,1%

19,2%

14,9% 14,9%

Data is not affordable

19,1% 14,9%

Internet enable handset

Tuesday 29 May 12

48,6%

Using the mobile for browsing

Tuesday 29 May 12

What are you using your mobile phone for?

Tuesday 29 May 12

What are you using your mobile phone for? South Africa

15,3%

Namibia

12,3% 11,3% 9,5% 13,4%

Ghana

6,7% 6,0% 7,7% 4,7% 5,2% 5,2% 7,7% 4,3% 8,1%

Uganda Tanzania Cameroon

13,6% 13,3% 14,9%

Rwanda Ethiopia

Tuesday 29 May 12

2,1% 5,1%

9,8%

23,5% 26,0%

17,3% 23,8%

What are you using your mobile phone for? South Africa

15,3%

Namibia

12,3%

6,7% 6,0% 7,7% 4,7% 5,2% 5,2% 7,7% 4,3% 8,1%

Uganda Tanzania Cameroon

13,6% 13,3% 14,9%

Rwanda Ethiopia

2,1% 5,1%

9,8%

Using the mobile for social networking Using the mobile for email Using the mobile for browsing the Internet

Tuesday 29 May 12

26,0%

17,3%

11,3% 9,5% 13,4%

Ghana

23,5%

23,8%

What are you using your mobile phone for? South Africa

15,3%

Namibia

12,3%

6,7% 6,0% 7,7% 4,7% 5,2% 5,2% 7,7% 4,3% 8,1%

Uganda Tanzania Cameroon

13,6% 13,3% 14,9%

Rwanda Ethiopia

2,1% 5,1%

9,8%

Using the mobile for social networking Using the mobile for email Using the mobile for browsing the Internet

Tuesday 29 May 12

26,0%

17,3%

11,3% 9,5% 13,4%

Ghana

23,5%

23,8%

Computer

Tuesday 29 May 12

Ownership and use of computer 26,8%

Do you use a computer (Desktop or laptop)?

10,0%

At home

64,7%

Work

40,9%

Internet Cafe School, University At a friends place Library

25,8% 21,9% 15,4% 6,3%

Namibia

Eth

an

iop

da

ia

2,0%

At home

53,3%

Work At a friends place School, University

43,0% 31,4% 25,6%

Internet Cafe

20,1%

Library

20,0%

Where do you use the computer?

Tuesday 29 May 12

Rw

nia

roo n me Ca

South Africa

3,5%

1,9% za

da Ug

Gh

an

an

a

bia mi Na

So uth

Afr

ica

4,8%

Ta n

13,0%

15,1%

Use of Computer South Africa Writing, editing documents

72,5%

Browsing the Internet

70,5%

Playing games

61,7%

Spreadsheets such as Excel Remixing content: music, videos

52,7% 34,5% Namibia

Writing, editing documents

64,2%

Browsing the Internet

55,8%

Spreadsheets such as Excel

54,1%

Playing games Remixing content: music, videos

Tuesday 29 May 12

49,9% 35,3%

Internet

Tuesday 29 May 12

15+ using the Internet 2007

2011

15,0%

South Africa 8,8%

Namibian Ghana

5,6%

Uganda

2,4%

Tanzania

2,2% 3,5%

Ethiopia

Tuesday 29 May 12

12,7%

7,9%

Cameroon Rwanda

15,9%

2,0% 6,0% 0,7% 2,7%

13,0% 14,1%

32,5%

Share of Internet users by years since they first used the Internet 1 year or less Namibia South Africa Ghana Uganda Tanzania Cameroon Rwanda Ethiopia

Tuesday 29 May 12

2

3

4

5 or more

11,9 18,2 25,7 17,2 27 16,7 17,2 12,8 9,4 44 18,3 15,3 12,1 8,6 45,6 28,4 20,7 30,1 7 13,9 29,4 2,5 26,7 2,8 38,4 19,1 15,3 15,8 10,6 39,2 8,8 24,1 7,2 43,6 16,5 47,8 14,2 16,9 7,2 13,9

Frequency of Internet use in the last 3 months South Africa

63,7

Namibia

58,9

Tanzania

Uganda Cameroon Rwanda Ethiopia Every day or almost every day Tuesday 29 May 12

5,9

35,2

51,9

Ghana

10,5

24,8

24,1

24

43,1

25,2

31,4

27,6

23,4

49

19,2

40,5

39,4 56,8 46,1

At least once a week

25,2 42,8

18 8,8

At least once a month or less

Internet usage VS computer usage Internet usage

Do you use a computer (Desktop or laptop)?

South Africa Namibia Ghana Uganda Tanzania

Ethiopia

Tuesday 29 May 12

18,9% 15,9% 13,0%

7,3%

12,7% 10,0%

5,6% 7,9% 4,8% 3,2% 3,5% 1,9% 1,3%

Cameroon Rwanda

Total population using a computer for browsing the Internet

9,3% 6,0% 3,5% 3,1% 2,7% 2,0% 0,8%

14,1% 15,1%

26,8%

32,5%

Where did you use the Internet first? 26,8%

Do you use a computer (Desktop or laptop)? 15,1%

13,0%

10,0% 4,8% 3,5% 2,0% 1,9%

ica

ut

fr hA

So

Ca

bia

on

ro me

i am

N

da

na

a Gh

n ga

U

a nd a w

R

pia

io Eth

71,8% 66,6%

ia

n za n Ta

54,2% 48,1% 37,8% 29,2% 29,5%

17,9%

Cameroon Rwanda

Ghana South Africa Namibia Tanzania Ethiopia

Uganda

Share of Internet users who used Internet first on a mobile phone Tuesday 29 May 12

Location of Internet use Any place via a mobile phone Place of education (school etc) Namibia

27,1

Work Internet facility/Internet caffee

36,0

Tanzania 18,5

Ghana 9,8

20,1

Rwanda

Tuesday 29 May 12

44,6

24,4

South Africa

Ethiopia

81,3

55,0 51,2

Uganda

Cameroon

87,1

48,4

50,9

52,1 50,2

30,7 17,5 20,9

62,8

34,6 31,7 34,6 33,6 29,7

42,2

74,0 74,7 72,5

61,2

70,9

80,0 80,9

15+ years or older that never used the Internet South Africa

No interest / not useful

Reasons I don’t know for not how to use it using the No computer / Internet Internet connection Too expensive

Tuesday 29 May 12

Namibia

Uganda

Tanzania

Ghana

Cameroon

Rwanda

Ethiopia

42%

59,1%

57,9%

57,9%

64,5%

64,3%

43,1%

2,1%

76,5%

88,1%

89,4%

95,6%

94,2%

90,8%

77,9%

10,1%

86,4%

90,7%

83,4%

96,2%

85,1%

84,2%

72,5%

9,6%

60%

78,4%

77,3%

84,7%

71,2%

56,1%

74,1%

5,0%

Internet going mobile Total population using a computer for browsing the Internet Total population using a mobile phone for browsing the Internet

18,9% 22,0%

South Africa Namibia Ghana Uganda Tanzania Cameroon Rwanda Ethiopia

Tuesday 29 May 12

7,3% 5,6% 8,0% 3,2% 3,6% 1,3% 1,9% 9,3% 3,6% 3,1% 3,6% 0,8% 0,9%

13,4%

What is driving mobile Internet

usage? Using the mobile for emails

Using mobile for social networking 15,3%

South Africa 12,3%

Namibia

9,5%

Ghana Uganda

6,0%

Tanzania

5,2% 4,7% 4,3%

Cameroon Rwanda Ethiopia

Tuesday 29 May 12

2,1%

17,3%

11,3%

6,7%

7,7% 13,3%

9,8%

23,5%

13,6%

Policy implications and recommendations

Tuesday 29 May 12

Tuesday 29 May 12

Policy implications Problem of club consortium monopoly provision of high priced international bandwidth of SAT 3 overcome with multiple cables land on West Coast and East Coast. Wholesale cost reductions, some of which have been passed on to retail consumers but tendency to provide more bandwidth for lower cost but still relatively high prices... from policy point of view not increase access but improve quality of access. That being said Internet enabled mobile phones and mobile Internet applications mean increased data across wireless networks dimensioned for voice. Real challenge terrestrial backbone and backhaul networks to carry data - fibre rings but little arterial broadband networks (absence of legacy networks to bolt on - greenfield opportunities?) Consider aggregate existing state owned backbone into common carrier (structural separation) Citizen equity and global competitiveness requires high bandwidth 24/7 - this will have to be delivered through hybrid wireless and fixed systems - not one or the other

Tuesday 29 May 12

Recommendations Create conditions conducive to FDI - policy enabled market entry, certain regulatory environment, - currently under capitalised, private sector not adequately mobilised, limited state/regulatory capacity to regulate effectively and manage supplier contracts. Demand stimulation - National e-literacy campaign to enable equitable access development of relevant content, tax rebates or tax exemption/subsidies etc .

In the meantime - release spectrum on competitive basis to deliver meet demand for broadband services and develop m-services - enable mobile money - pensions. Effective regulation of competitive market - (skilled and autonomous NRAs) Reduce prices to create critical mass necessary for network effects associated with economic growth and innovation.

Tuesday 29 May 12

Understanding Broadband demand in Africa - Research ICT Africa

May 29, 2012 - Wholesale cost reductions, some of which have been passed on to retail consumers but tendency to provide more bandwidth for lower cost but ...

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