doi:10.1016/j.cities.2005.05.007
Cities, Vol. 22, No. 4, p. 287–302, 2005 Ó 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Printed in Great Britain 0264-2751/$ - see front matter
www.elsevier.com/locate/cities
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China Lei Shen a,*, Shengkui Cheng a, Aaron James Gunson b, Hui Wan c a Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), CAS, Beijing 100101, PR China b University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4 c China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, PR China
Available online 26 July 2005
This paper analyzes a model depicting the trend of Chinese urbanization and explores relationships between urbanization and the supply and demand of major energy and mineral resources and between the gross domestic product (GDP) and the urbanization of China. Then it predicts ChinaÕs supply and demand trends from 2005 to 2050. It is predicted that until 2010 ChinaÕs GDP and urbanization will grow at high speed, slowing slightly yet still growing strongly on to 2050. It also argues that the supply of cement, steel, aluminum and coal and the demand of timber, cement and steel have significant effects on urbanization. The paper concludes that China will inevitably face a long shortage of resources if future urbanization is faster than predicted, i.e., China cannot meet the targets of the current urbanization strategy while continuing current energy and resource consumption for its industrialization and modernization. Ó 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Urbanization, modernization, energy, natural resources, supply and demand, utilization
Introduction
nese urbanization was seen as more different than similar to the experiences of other economies in the world. Among the many facets of Chinese urbanization are a more heterogeneous urban population, rural–urban migration, spatial reorganization through urban land-use change, new housing development, globalization, suburbanization, polycentric restructuring of urban form, and changes in the spatial/administrative systems of cities. Zhang and Zhao (2000) argues that the process of urbanization in a socialist economy could be negatively affected by its pattern of resource generation; Chang (1994) analyzed the recent process and consequences of ChinaÕs urbanization by weighing the short-term policies and long-term strategies concerning national development and urban growth against the objective material conditions and competing group interests in Chinese society. Zhang and Zhao (2001) examined
Recent research has identified several factors driving the rapid urbanization and growth of cities and towns of China, including continuing, although diminishing, population growth; migration of rural people, as regulations on rural and urban household registration change; rapid structural shift in employment activities and the decline of farm employment; foreign trade and foreign investment, especially in coastal areas; restructuring of state-owned enterprises and growth of private enterprises and activities; and allocation of domestic funds in fixed assets for urban infrastructure, also concentrated in coastal areas (Pannell, 2002). The trajectory of Chi*
Corresponding author. Tel./fax: +86-10-64889005; e-mail: shenl@ igsnrr.ac.cn.
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Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al.
the effects of state resource allocation (mainly capital inputs), on Chinese urbanization and concluded that the orientation of state resource inputs has seriously distorted the association between industrialization and urbanization. Some scholars have induced more serious theoretical discussion of Chinese urbanization. Tang (1997) addressed the (non-spatial) causal mechanisms between 1949 and 1977 and attempted to examine the advantages of combining KornaiÕs shortage model with FoucaultÕs concept of governmentality. He argued that spatial relations did play significant roles in revealing Chinese urbanization policies and patterns. Ma (2002) argued that during the last half century, Chinese cities underwent dramatic transformations due to socialist revolution and the economic reforms after 1978. Others pointed out that the problem of urban data incomparability; Zhou and Ma (2003) developed two sets of adjusted and internally coherent time-series data to remedy this problem. The Chinese experience of urbanization had often been perceived as a ‘‘unique case’’ because of its peculiar pattern of rapid industrialization without a parallel growth of the urban population. The regional pattern of Chinese urbanization also varies, with coastal regions advancing most rapidly owing to stronger linkages to the global economy. Pannell (2003) considered that a key feature of transition would be the growth of cities and towns of all sizes. Smith (2000) examined the spatial impacts of ChinaÕs modernization, focusing on two major factors of production, namely the mobility of capital and of individuals, most obviously manifested in a massive rural to urban population transfer during the past two decades. Zhu (1998) divided ChinaÕs urbanization process into ÔformalÕ and ÔinformalÕ patterns and argued that the development of township and village enterprises, the creation of many small urban centers and the arrival of many temporary residents had mainly encouraged Ôinformal urbanizationÕ. Theoretical attempts to understand the dynamics of urban change in China have moved beyond internalism and deterministic growth; Lin (1998, 2002) analyzed the functional and spatial (re)positioning of cities in China as a system or systems in the broader context of regional growth and national development strategies. He considered ChinaÕs urban development over the past five decades had been the direct outcome of national political strategizing, state articulation and reconfiguration, and shifts in global capital accumulation. Fan (1999) found that institutional factors had played key roles in shaping the city system, characterized by declining population concentration across cities and by tremendous vertical (population growth of cities) and horizontal (addition of new cities) expansions. Wen (1992) gave theoretical emphasis to the interplay between Confucian and Marxist cultural factors in determining contemporary Chinese regional development 288
and, more specifically, how human migration and urbanization respond to strong state intervention. After such a brief literature review, it is found that most studies have little discussion on the interplay and relationship between urbanization and the utilization of energy or natural resources. Very few articles examine the impacts of urbanization on natural resources in China. Jung et al. (2000) argued that the new international economic order of the 21st century would emerge under the paradigm of sustainable development, thus structural shifts may be redefined for both developed and developing countries. He then considered several key driving forces, like the utilization of natural resources, climate, land, population growth trends and composition, the patterns of urbanization, economic, and industrial structures, technological diffusion, and institutional and legal mechanisms. Cocklin and Keen (2000) examined the impacts of urbanization on the environment and concluded that there were both biophysical and social vulnerabilities associated with urbanization and these affect human security. Auty (2003) argued that natural resource rents are an important initial condition that help explain choice of reform strategy among some transition countries. Many predictions on natural resource trends can be seen in the literature, but little attention has been paid to their links with Chinese urbanization (see, for example, Gibbs and Martin, 1958). Dorian et al. (1990) examined the Soviet, Chinese and Indian mineral industries and forecasted conditions to 2010, and industrial production, intensity of use, consumption, mine and plant expansion and trade policy by comparisons of six metals. Crompton (1999) used Bayesian vector auto-regression models to forecast steel consumption in South–East Asia to 2005. He suggested that steel consumption there would rise but vary in 2005 under the low and high growth scenarios indicating the sensitivity of steel consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) growth. As urbanization continues into the future, it will be inevitably accompanied by dramatic increases in the consumption of water, land, energy, and mineral resources. Domestic water demand due to growth and living standards has partially led to a shortage of water in China (Zhang et al., 1992). Water crises occurred in over 400 Chinese cities in 2000 (Zhu et al., 2001) and Northern China has less than half the water per person than water-scarce Egypt. Varis and Vakkilainen (2001) identifies great water-related challenges in the coming decades, and Ren et al. (2003) revealed that rapid urbanization corresponded with rapid degradation of water quality. The processes of agricultural restructuring, rural industrialization, and rapid urbanization in China since the 1990s have given rise to a new trend of massive farmland loss for the benefits of market farming and non-agricultural developments.
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al.
This paper explores the impact of supply and demand for major natural resources, including strategic minerals and fossil fuels, on the future urbanization of China. The research is based on two assumptions, that first, utilization of resources leads to national industrialization and modernization; thus there are some inherent relationships between GDP indices and the supply and demand for major resources, as urbanization is an inevitable result of industrialization. Second, there is a competing relationship between urbanization and resources. The paper analyzes the relationships between supply and demand for resources and the process of urbanization in future China by mathematically modeling urbanization indices, the supply and demand for resources, and economic development indices, such as GNP and GDP. Using gray prediction models, it makes predictions on the future GDP of China by the methods of twice accumulation and twice adverse subtraction to ChinaÕs GDP data of 1952–1999. Thus, the model of the relationship between ChinaÕs GDP and urbanization could predict future urbanization levels in China. Taking the output and consumption of ChinaÕs major energy and resources of 1952–1999 as the base data, linear regression models of resource supply and demand and urbanization are established. These results are compared to those predictions of other ordinary methods made by domestic and overseas agencies, and the difference between theirs and ours is explored. There are two basic premises in this simulation. One is that the economic development and urbanization over the past five decades can reflect the dominant development trend of the next 50 years. Another is that we can predict the urbanization trend of China based on the restriction of supply and demand for resources. Although this empirical
prediction does not take into account the impacts of science (technological progress, resources substitutes), the paper shows that China cannot meet the targets of the current urbanization strategy while continuing current energy and resource consumption for industrialization and modernization.
Analysis of ChinaÕs urbanization development model and evolution Before our empirical examination, it is necessary to analyze ChinaÕs urbanization development model and evolution trend, and the trend of supply and demand for major natural resources under urbanization and modernization. While it is well known that urbanization is affected by several factors, the driving functions of the exploitation of resources should not be neglected. These, especially energy and minerals, are the material bases for the national economy. Concurrently, the exploitation and utilization of resources are the most primitive driving force of regional development and urbanization. A supply of resources will inevitably promote the process of industrialization and urbanization, as verified by industrialization in Western developed economies. Industrialization and modernization both encourages urbanization and utilizes massive amounts of resources (see Figure 1). Urbanization is spurred on by industrialization and also demands significant resources, in effect competing with industrialization and modernization (Marx, 1963; Marx and Engels, 1963). Huntington, expatiated deeply upon this topic, arguing that modernization includes the improvement of industrialization, urbanization, literacy, education, wealth, mass-mobility, and ever more complicated and more diversified vocational structures Huntington (1996).
Figure 1 The framework of relationships of resources with industrialization, information age, modernization and urbanization.
289
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al.
Figure 2 The evolution curve of historical urbanization of China (Data source: State statistics Bureau, 2001).
Generally, three global patterns of urbanization can be identified. The first is the developed or resources-oriented pattern, where urbanization in countries, such as Britain and the US, were followed by the exploitation of resources and industrialization. Urbanization during the Industrial Revolution was dominated by the exploitation and utilization of energy and resources, combined with science and technological progress that promoted urbanization. Industrialization brought about a series of synchronous effects, such as rapid rural migration to urban areas, the increasing number of industrial and mining cities, urban populations moving from agriculture into the secondary industry, and then on to the tertiary industry. Urbanization also resulted in the realization of agricultural modernization, and eventually led to improvement of urban residentsÕ living conditions and increasing productivity. The second urbanization pattern often appears in the third world. In this pattern, the sources that affect and restrict the process of urbanization lie in one or several kinds of extroverted factors and environments, called the exterior-industrialization development strategy. Some scholars call it the reliant or exterior-stimulated pattern, driven by multinational capital. Korea, Brazil and other countries of the third world fill this pattern. In the course of their urbanization, export-oriented demands, foreign investment and credits, the new international labor division order, economic intervention from industrialized countries and political demands have had a crucial function. The third urbanization pattern is the mix-promoted pattern, including all of the dynamic urbanization factors stated above. It has both the stimulation of the endogenetic factors in the first pattern and the functions of exterior factors in the second pattern. The synthesis is the basic drive for urbanization. Japan is the most representative country of this pattern. 290
The urbanization of China over the past 50 years has experienced six complicated development stages (Figure 2). At different stages, it has followed different aspects of the development patterns highlighted above. Although the historic conditions varied widely from stage to stage, the supply and demand of natural resources served as critical variables. The first stage was the development period at the beginning of industrialization from 1950 to 1957. Pre-1949 China had seen little modern urbanization or industrialization. With the priority of developing industry and exploiting and utilizing energy and resources on a large-scale at the first stage, however, masses of peasants rushed into cities and towns to work in industrial and mining enterprises. The urbanization rate went up from 10.6% in 1949 to 15.39% in 1957. The second stage is the high-speed urbanization period of the Great Leap Forward1 from 1958 to 1960. The most evident characteristic of this period was that iron and steel dominated demand. People of all sectors of ChinaÕs economy stepped into industry and took up steel-making production. Large groups of rural labors rushed into cities and towns. Thus, the industrialization and urbanization of China realized super-normal development on the basis of separating from agriculture. It, however, brought about many unfavorable factors that soon resulted in anti-urbanization (Shen and Andrews-Speed, 2001). The third stage was a de-urbanization period resulting from industrial regulation from 1961 to 1965. The Chinese government policies reduced the urban population by more than 20 million people, by moving workers from industries in cities to the countryside. As a result, the population of towns with organizational systems went up from 2000 to 1 This mass activity was instituted in early 1958 as a means of greatly accelerating economic growth and advancing socialist construction according to ChinaÕs specific economic conditions.
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al.
3000, and the number of cities was reduced from 280 to 171. This was an inevitable result of rectifying the mistake of overly rapid urbanization that occurred in the second stage. The fourth stage was a period of stagnated urbanization and industrialization from 1966 to 1977. The national economy was pushed to breaking due to the Cultural Revolution and associated misguided ideology. The fifth stage was the early high-speed urbanization period following the rural system reform, from 1978 to 1984. This rural reform greatly promoted rural economic development, thus indirectly enhancing the non-agricultural economy and urbanization. The latter went from 17.44% in 1976 to 21.62% in 1983. The sixth stage of urbanization is the stable development period from 1985 to the present. Since 1984, economic reforms have steadily advanced and the success has lead to further urbanization. Millions of surplus agricultural labors have entered cities, greatly accelerating urbanization. The fifth and the sixth stages, following ChinaÕs reform and open door policy, were periods of rapid GDP growth and urbanization. From 1978 to 2000, the number of cities increased from 193 to 663, the number of towns with administrative systems increased from 2173 to 20,312, the total urban popula-
tion jumped from 170 million to 456 million and the percentage of the urban population went up from 17.9% to 36.1%. Especially, since the beginning of the 1990s, China has been rapidly urbanizing. According to official figures (the State Statistics Bureau, 2001), the number of cities at prefecture level has increased from 188 to 269 between 1990 and 2001, and major cities, with a non-agricultural population of over one million, have increased from 31 to 41. Urbanization is considered as a major indicator of modernization. However, ChinaÕs urbanization rate now stands at a mere 41% in 2003, 5% lower than the worldÕs average. As a result, the 16th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) put forward the aim of constructing well-balanced society, by carrying out a rapid urbanization and industrialization policy over the next 20 years. Chinese experts predict that the number of people living in Chinese cities is expected to reach 1.12 billion by 2050, accounting for 70% of the countryÕs total population (see forecasts 2 and 3 in Table 2). More than 600 million Chinese people will shift from rural areas to urban districts in the next 50 years. Obviously, urbanization will be a long-term and arduous task for China.
Table 1 The urbanization forecast of China in 2005–2050 under the modernization restriction
The development trend of ChinaÕs urbanization under restrictions of modernization
Year
Forecasted GDP
Forecasted urbanization rates
(1000 billion Annual growth (%) RMB Yuan) in five years (%) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Table 2
14.26 21.73 31.43 43.64 58.64 76.72 98.16 123.25 152.28 185.52
8.79 6.78 5.52 4.66 4.03
33.19 34.68 35.98 37.15 38.19 39.14 40.01 40.82 41.57 42.26
Annual growth in five years (%) 0.88 0.64 0.49 0.40 0.33
A report from the Research Group of Sustainable Development Strategy in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (1999) held the view that ChinaÕs urbanization will inevitably be confronted with six basic challenges in the 21st century, including increased population pressure, intense demand for energy and resources and rapid urbanization. Using the gray prediction model (see more in Appendix D), this paper first makes a quantitative prediction for ChinaÕs GDP over the next 50 years (see Appendix A). Using the twice-accumulation method with ChinaÕs GDP data (y) of 1952–1999 (x = 1, 2, 3,. . ., 48) and gain accumulated data, we make a time-series simulation amalgamation automatically with the
Various urbanization forecasts of China from 2000 to 2050 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Forecast 1
Total population (100 million persons) Urbanization rate (%)
13 34.92
14.2 46.06
14.9 55.03
15.3 60.78
15.4 64.94
15.3 68.63
Forecast 2
Total population (100 million persons) Urbanization rate (%)
12.78 35.52
13.73 47.63
14.54 56.40
14.96 62.17
15.05 66.45
14.78 71.04
Forecast 3
Total population (100 million persons) Urbanization rate (%)
12.69 35.78
13.77 47.49
14.72 55.71
15.25 60.98
15.44 64.77
15.22 68.99
Forecast of this paper
Urbanization rate (%)
34.68
37.15
39.14
40.82
42.26
Source. Forecast 1: The modest forecast option in Study on China Energy Strategy (2000–2050). Forecast 2: The second option of ChinaÕs Population Forecast by the United Nation. Forecast 3: The forecast of ChinaÕs Population Development by the Center of China Population Information Research.
291
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al.
product of one variable to the nth power. After many comparisons, we adopt n = 5 and attain the equation as follows: y ¼ 0.19v5 18.031v4 þ 636.98v3 8975v2 þ 55180v 83654 ðv ¼ 1; 2; 3; . . . ; 99Þ. ð1Þ From the above, we acquire simulation data to 2000– 2050, then we can get prediction results (Table 1 and Appendix A) of GDP by twice adverse accumulative subtraction. With the data of ChinaÕs GDP and urbanization rates in 1952–1999, we are also able to establish a linear regression model y ¼ 3.5372 lnðvÞ 8.7894.
ð2Þ
With Eq. (2), we can predict ChinaÕs urbanization level in 2005–2050 under the GDP restriction. The model above indicates that ChinaÕs GDP relates closely to urbanization levels, and its correlation coefficient (R) is 0.9214 (Figure 3). In 2005–2010 ChinaÕs GDP will grow at high speed, and the annual growth of GDP will be up to 8.79% and of urbanization to 0.88% annually, with growth slowing slightly on to 2050, at above 4% GDP growth per annum and above 0.33% urbanization growth per annum. The urbanization forecast above is a conservative prediction resulting from the restriction of both modernization and static supply and demand of resources. Therefore, this predicted urbanization level of future ChinaÕs is far lower than most other predictions in China or abroad. Contrasted with the second option of ChinaÕs Population Forecast by the United Nation (see the forecast 2 in Table 2), there is a 13% discrepancy in 2010, 19% in 2020, and 29% in 2050. All these suggest that future urbanization in China will confront the restriction of supply and demand for major energy and resources badly and that the
country will have a long way to go towards achieving its strategic urban objectives.
The trend of supply and demand for major energy and resources under restrictions of urbanization and modernization There is a tight relationship between exploitation and utilization of energy and resources and urbanization and modernization in China. On the one side, urbanization and modernization depend intensively on supply and demand of major energy and resources. The exploitation and utilization of energy and resources, on the other side, are based on economic growth and urbanization improvement. Modernization accelerates the speed of energy and resource consumption and promotes exploitation and utilization of the resources. Thus, it can be seen that China will inevitably face a serious restriction in the supply of resources during the process of highspeed urbanization and modernization. Under this condition of restriction, however, we need quantitative analysis and study to find the supply and demand for major resources and any shortages. As the supply and demand for resources is affected by multiple factors, it is hard to get an accurate prediction. Many scholars manage to take various forecasts, such as methods of per-capita resources occupation (Pu, 1998), flexibility coefficients (Jia, 1992), trend analysis, regression analysis (Shen and Wei, 1998), probability statistics (Jia, 1992), input-output analysis and systematic dynamics simulation (Dong, 1999); unfortunately, their results differed significantly. In this paper, we take outputs and consumption data of major energy and resources in 1952–1999 as primitive data, and draw their scatter-dots distribution, respectively, with his-
Figure 3 The relationship between urbanization and economic growth of China (Data source: State statistics Bureau, 2001).
292
0.9077 0.9048
0.8600 0.8559
0.8844 0.8834 0.9021 0.8760
0.8969
0.8024
0.7087
0.8982
0.8630
0.8915 0.9164 0.9156 0.8376
0.9195 0.9015
0.8349 0.9300 0.8635
y = 18910 ln (v) 48603 (oil output, 100 million tons)
y = 238.16 ln (v) 618.3 (natural gas output, 100 million cubic meters)
y = 1281.1v 15705 (iron ore output, 100 million tons) y = 0.0352v3.7053 (raw iron output, 100 million tons) y = 0.0193v3.8924 (steel output, 100 million tons) y = 114.16 ln (v) 306.65 (copper output, 10,000 ton)
y = 1e5v4.8454 (aluminum output,10,000 ton) y = 2304.7 ln (v) 6246.8 (hydro-power generating electricity, 100 million kWh)
y = 89.959v1.2814 (timber output, 10,000 m3) y = 0.0004v5.4409 (cement output, 10,000 ton) y = 1e5v5.7784 (nitrogen, phosphate and potassic fertilizer output, 10,000 ton)
Oil
Natural gas
Iron ore Raw iron Steel Copper
Aluminum Hydro-power
Timber Cement Fertilizer
y = 128943 ln (v) 327837 (coal consumption, 100 million tons) y = 19833 ln (v) 52292 (oil consumption, 100 million tons) y = 9.8957v 109.91 (natural gas consumption, 100 million cubic meters) y = 278.16e0.1643v (iron ore consumption, 100 million tons) y = 81.265e0.163v (raw iron consumption, 100 million tons) y = 47.965e0.1809v (steel consumption, 100 million tons) y = 152.94 ln (v) 407.87 (copper consumption, 10,000 tons) y = 7e06v5.0864 (aluminum consumption, 10,000 ton) y = 9.8957v 109.91 (hydro-power electricity consumption, 100 million kWh) y = 5305.6 ln (v) 11592 (timber consumption, 10,000 m3) y = 33.317e0.2422v (cement consumption, 10,000 ton) 0.9092 y = 0.0011x2.7816 (coal output, 100 million tons) Coal
Relationship between resources demand and urbanization Correlative coefficient Relationship between resources supply and urbanization
The analysis above indicates the shortage of major energy and resources under the precondition of restrictions of both GDP and low-speed urbanization. The more austere reality is that urbanization in future China will develop faster, and the GDP and social development will realize the strategic goals of comprehensively constructing a society of well-being, which was put forward at the 16th congress of the CCP. The shortfall of resources will increase. Statistical data from 133 countries collected by the Word Bank show that urbanization levels will increase 40–60% when the GDP per capita grows from US $700 to US $1000–1500. Some experts ar-
The mathematical patterns of the relationships between urbanization and supply and demand of major resources in China
The actual discrepancy between supply and demand for major energy and resources in China
Table 3
torical urbanization data, and then calculate trends using a simulation-amalgamation equation (see Table 3, Appendices B and C). We draw the conclusion that ChinaÕs supply and demand for major energy and resources is directly related to its urbanization level, and most correlation coefficients are above 0.7. That is, with the increase of urbanization, the supply and demand for major energy and resources increases accordingly. On supply side, it is cement, steel, aluminum and coal that have higher correlation coefficients; on demand side, it is timber, cement and steel that have smaller correlation coefficients. According to the mathematical relationships between urbanization and the supply and demand for major energy and resources, and the predicted GDP, we are able to calculate the supply and demand for major resources in 2005–2050 (Tables 4 and 5). According to forecast data from Tables 4 and 5, by 2050, even at a low urbanization rate, domestic resource supplies can meet only coal demand. Oil consumption can be largely balanced at a very low level. However, domestic supplies cannot meet the demand for natural gas and other resources such as iron ore, raw iron, steel, copper and aluminum (see Table 6). With ChinaÕs urbanization increasing by about 1.5% from 2005 to 2010, the shortfall between supply and demand for natural gas increases 1.76%, iron ore increases 6.68%, iron increases 7.79%, and aluminum increases by 0.65%. The shortfall for copper actually decreases by 0.65%. By 2020 and on, the shortfall between supply and demand for coal, oil, copper, aluminum, etc. will stay comparatively stable. In contrast, the shortfall for natural gas, iron ore, iron and steel will continue to increase, especially for iron ore, which will keep above 50% throughout the time period examined (Figure 4).
Correlative coefficient
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al.
293
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al. Table 4
Supply forecasts of resources in China in 2005–2050 under the restrictions of both modernization and urbanization
Year
Urbanization rate (%)
Coal (100 million tons)
Oil (100 million tons)
Natural gas (100 million cubic meters)
Iron ore (100 million tons)
Raw iron (100 million tons)
Steel (100 million tons)
Copper (10,000 ton)
Aluminum (10,000 ton)
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
33.19 34.68 37.15 39.14 40.82 42.26
18.72 21.15 25.60 29.61 33.28 36.66
1.76 1.85 1.98 2.07 2.15 2.22
215.79 226.25 242.61 255.07 265.07 273.36
2.68 2.87 3.19 3.44 3.66 3.84
1.52 1.79 2.31 2.80 3.28 3.73
1.61 1.91 2.49 3.05 3.59 4.12
93.17 98.18 106.02 111.99 116.78 120.76
234.36 289.94 404.41 521.14 638.61 756.00
Table 5
Demand forecasts of resources in China in 2005–2050 under the restrictions of both modernization and urbanization
Year
Urbanization rate (%)
Coal (100 million tons)
Oil (100 million tons)
Natural gas (100 million cubic meters)
Iron ore (100 million tons)
Raw iron (100 million tons)
Steel (100 million tons)
Copper (10,000 ton)
Aluminum (10,000 ton)
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
33.19 34.68 37.15 39.14 40.82 42.26
12.38 12.94 13.83 14.50 15.04 15.49
1.72 1.80 1.94 2.04 2.13 2.20
218.53 233.27 257.67 277.42 294.02 308.33
6.49 8.30 12.44 17.27 22.74 28.85
1.82 2.32 3.46 4.79 6.30 7.98
1.94 2.54 3.97 5.70 7.72 10.03
127.76 134.48 144.98 152.99 159.40 164.73
381.54 477.05 676.51 882.83 1092.82 1304.61
Table 6 Shortage of resources supply and demand in China in 2005–2050 under the restrictions of both modernization and urbanization Unit
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Urbanization rate (%) Coal (100 million tons) Oil (100 million tons) Natural gas (100 million cubic meters) Iron ore (100 million tons) Raw iron (100 million tons) Steel (100 million tons) Copper (10,000 tons) Aluminum (10,000 tons)
33.19 +6.34 +0.04 2.74 3.81 0.30 0.33 34.59 147.18
34.68 +8.21 +0.05 7.02 5.43 0.53 0.63 36.30 187.11
37.15 +11.77 +0.04 15.06 9.25 1.15 1.48 38.96 272.10
39.14 +24.64 +0.03 22.35 13.83 1.99 2.65 41.00 361.69
40.82 +18.24 +0.02 28.95 19.08 3.02 4.13 42.62 454.21
42.26 +21.17 +0.02 34.97 25.01 4.25 5.91 43.97 548.61
gue that the per capita GDP of China will rise from US $800 in 1997 to US $1200 or even higher by 2010 (the Research Group of Sustainable Development Strategy, 1999). Both urbanization and economic indexes indicate that ChinaÕs urbanization is accelerating. According to the Three-Step Walking development strategy of China,2 the GDP growth of China will be maintained at 4–7% or even higher, and the next 20 years will inevitably be a period in which resources consumption and urbanization grows quickly. Assuming the Chinese population will be 1.3 billion in 2010, 1.35 billion in 2020, 1.4 billion 2 The Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh CCP National Congress held in 1978 launched ChinaÕs reform and opening-up to the outside world and initiated a ‘‘three-step strategy’’ to develop Chinese economy at the very beginning of reform in accordance with Chinese own characteristics at that time. This three-step covers the years of 1978–2000, 2001–2020, and 2021–2050, respectively.
294
in 2040, and 1.5 billion in 2050, and the Gross National Product (GNP) per capita will be US $1500 in 2010, US $2500 in 2020, US $3680 in 2030, US $5400 in 2040, and US $8000 in 2050, ChinaÕs urbanization level will reach at 47% in 2010, 56% in 2020, 61% in 2030, 65% in 2040, and 70% in 2050. The urban population will reach 611 million in 2010, 756 million in 2020, 854 million in 2030, 943 million in 2040, and 1050 million in 2050 (Li, 2002). With increasing GDP per capita, urbanization and population, the supply and demand for major energy and resources in China should keep apace. That is to say, the consumption of energy and resources will increase at high speed in terms of both per capita outputs and gross outputs. It is predicted that the per capita consumption speeds of major energy and resources are as follows: 3–4% for coal, 2–3% for oil, about 3% for natural gas, 3–4% for iron, 3–5% for copper, 3.5–4.5% for aluminium, and 5–8% for cement. We can predict that by 2010, the surplus of coal will be 1158 million tons (mt); however, the
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al.
200
45 Urbanization rate
35 Coal 30
100
25 50 Natural gas
Oil
20 Raw iron
0
15 2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
Urbanization rate (%)
Ratio of Demand Versus Supply (%)
40 150
2050 10
-50 Iron ore
5
Copper -100 Aluminium
Steel
0
Figure 4 The change curve of resources shortage rates in China under the restrictions of both modernization and urbanization.
shortfall of oil will be 50mt, of natural gas will be 56,000 million cubic meter (mcm), of iron will be 175mt, of steel will be 70mt, of copper will be 1.02 mt, and of aluminium will be 0.15 mt. By 2020, coal, coppers and aluminium rates will remain stable. The shortage between supply and demand of oil will be 193 mt, of natural gas will be 10,387 mcm, of iron will be 240 mt and of steel will be 95 mt. From 2020 on the intensity of consumption of resources in China will decline due to slowing of population and economic growth, improving science and technological progress, and resource substitution. But the resource shortfall will continue and will threaten ChinaÕs future resource security (Shen and Cheng, 2002).
Conclusion and the way forward To sum up, this paper finds that most studies have put little emphasis on the connection between urbanization and resource utilization. We argue that natural resources, especially energy and minerals resources, are the key material bases for urbanization and modernization, and their exploitation and utilization are closely related to modernization, industrialization and urbanization. The urbanization process is affected by many factors, including increasing population, economic development, social advancement and exploitation and utilization of major energy and resources. The main urbanization trends in different countries are the same by and large, while following different development patterns. Urbanization and modernization of China are evi-
dently influenced by its own history, politics and culture. ChinaÕs GDP has increased rapidly, and its society has advanced and its urbanization has accelerated since 1978. As a result, China has exploited and consumed resources on a large scale. Entering into the 21st century, China will inevitably face population pressures and natural resource shortages, especially resources which relate directly to the development of the national economy and urbanization. The gray prediction system forecasts in this paper indicate that GDP relates highly to urbanization level in China; GDP and urbanization rates will, respectively, reach 8.79% and 0.88% or higher by 2010, and afterward will increase steadily, but more slowly, on to 2050. The high-speed of urbanization and modernization will inevitably lead to the shortage of resources in China. Among them, the supplies of cement, steel, aluminum and coal have the most important effect. Even though the only coal demands can be sustained domestically, and the oil demand can almost be sustained, other resources such as iron ore, steel, copper and aluminum, will be in short supply. If taking the reality of faster urbanization into account, the long-term resource supply shortage will still be austere, though science and technological progress and resource replacement will lower resource consumption somewhat (Crowson, 1997, 1999). Securing these supplies will directly touch the process of modernization, urbanization and construction of a prosperous society; otherwise, China would be hard pressed to reach its urbanization targets in the foreseeable future. 295
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al.
To cope with these ever-increasingly pressure, the Chinese government has carried out its Ôtwo-legsÕ policy. This implies that China actively searches for foreign sources of resources and energy and struggles to raise its efficiencies. However, it would be impossible for China to import large amounts of resources and energy from abroad, given that China has insufficient capital strength. Even if this was the case, the global resource market would find it difficult to provide such gigantic resource requirements. The only way forward for China is to change its resource and environment policies so as to sustain its future urbanization and modernization. This calls for the sustainable resource utilization. A general theory of sustainability has yet to be found, although it is evident that there is a connection between economic, social and ecological problems, and a recognition of the pressure put on the natural resources by an ever-increasing population, which intensifies the decline of natural resources and environmental degradation in China negatively. It is therefore suggested that more priority should be assigned to environmental protection and resource conservation in China. Arguably, it is within the economic dimension that tremendous progress in urban China has been made so far, and the big challenge is to identify the costs that we have be incurred to compensate for environmental and resource loses. The current pressure on resources, such as land, food and water for the growing population, necessitates introspection of the Chinese past practices. The real costs of environmental degradation in China are mounting, including air pollution, groundwater depletion, soil salinization and compaction, land subsidence, nitrate contamination in groundwater and agro-products, farmersÕ sickness, and loss of insect and pest predators. Subsequently, further sustainable urbanization should be dependent on dealing with the tradeoff between economic sustainability and environmental sustainability. The debate between environmental sustainability and economic development has played a central role in pursuing sustainable development since 1992. Environmental sustainability tends to favor the full conservation of natural resources, particularly in keeping the ecological balances of the physical world intact. There is hope of sustainability when more politicians and industry leaders start taking the environment seriously, if they do it in time. Realizing this importance, the Chinese central government placed its focus on a new development strategy in 2004. It aimed to realize environmental sustainability of technology, taking into account the role of industrial ecology. A higher compatibility of a specific technology with the industrial system, as studied in industrial ecology, can result in lower resource extraction and reduced waste emission, indirectly contributing to a better environmental sustainability. Quantifiable results in terms of re296
duced wastes and emissions and improved resource and energy efficiencies have been documented by many authors (Kjaerheim, 2005). It is noted that many countries, as a strategy for improving environmental performance, have also adopted the cleaner production (CP) concept. CP has proven itself as an effective way of obtaining improved resource utilization, reduced energy consumption and lower emission levels. It also motivates positive preventive action and promotes a holistic view of resources, production, economy and the environment. Sustainability in the context of urbanization can be defined as encapsulating a number of different connotations. First, it means urban sustainable development. This is achieved through meeting the requirement of providing sufficient energy and resources with greater efficiency. Second, it refers to an ecologically-acceptable urbanization. Urban residents must develop a self-image as ÔtrusteesÕ of their resources, which they are supposed to use, preserve and enlarge and then pass on to their descendants. Third, sustainability also means a thriving economic and social order with production structures and relationships that ensure a fair distribution of income, power and opportunities, thus providing the basis for social peace. Finally, sustainability implies a sense of long-term carrying capacity of cities, where there is no negative impact on the environment (Ehlers, 1997). Towards the above sustainability of urbanization, several practical actions should be taken as soon as possible. First, China should change its traditional view of point on the development and insist on allround coordinated and sustainable development. With regard to institutional transition, it should change its attitude solely from pursuing GDP growth while ignoring energy and resource losses. Second, economic sustainability should be achieved by way of scientific and technological progress. Third, China must choose a new and rational development path for industrialization. This requires encouraging the development of value-added, low pollution, hightech industries. Finally, it should give prominence to the conservation of energy and resources and lead economic development and urbanization in the way of resource conservation and efficiency.
Acknowledgements This paper is completed under the auspices of research projects by both the Knowledge Innovation Engineering and Director Fund at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Project Nos. KZCX2-SW318-01-01 and CDW797), and by the Open Fund (Project No. 2005-03-2005T-03) under the Ministry of Land and Mineral Resources of China) Mr. Shen would like to thank several anonymous reviewers and readers in China and abroad who gave lots of helpful comments and suggestions.
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al.
Appendix A. The forecast process and data table of GDP in China, using the twice-accumulative addition and adverse twice-accumulative subtraction of the grey forecasting method Year
Series
GDP (100 million RMB Yuan)
First accumulative addition
Second accumulative addition
Accumulative forecast
First accumulative subtraction
Second accumulative subtraction
Residual subtraction
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 54 59 64 69 79 89 99
679.0 824.0 859.0 910.0 1028.0 1068.0 1307.0 1439.0 1457.0 1220.0 1149.3 1233.3 1454.0 1716.1 1868.0 1773.9 1723.1 1937.9 2252.7 2426.4 2518.1 2720.9 2789.9 2997.3 2943.7 3201.9 3624.1 4038.2 4517.8 4862.4 5294.7 5934.5 7171.0 8964.4 10202.2 11962.5 14928.3 16909.2 18547.9 21617.8 26638.1 34634.4 46759.4 58478.1 67884.6 74462.6 78345.2 81910.9
679.00 1503.00 2362.00 3272.00 4300.00 5368.00 6675.00 8114.00 9571.00 10791.00 11940.30 13173.60 14627.60 16343.70 18211.70 19985.60 21708.70 23646.60 25899.30 28325.70 30843.80 33564.70 36354.60 39351.90 42295.60 45497.50 49121.60 53159.80 57677.60 62540.00 67834.70 73769.20 80940.20 89904.60 100106.80 112069.30 126997.60 143906.80 162454.70 184072.50 210710.60 245345.00 292104.40 350582.50 418467.10 492929.70 571274.90 653185.80
679.00 2182.00 4544.00 7816.00 12116.00 17484.00 24159.00 32273.00 41844.00 52635.00 64575.30 77748.90 92376.50 108720.20 126931.90 146917.50 168626.20 192272.80 218172.10 246497.80 277341.60 310906.30 347260.90 386612.80 428908.40 474405.90 523527.50 576687.30 634364.90 696904.90 764739.60 838508.80 919449.00 1009353.60 1109460.40 1221529.70 1348527.30 1492434.10 1654888.80 1838961.30 2049671.90 2295016.90 2587121.30 2937703.80 3356170.90 3849100.60 4420375.50 5073561.30
36829.86 4380.58 16895.12 29811.34 36817.88 40022.94 41216.04 41890.70 43267.34 46316.00 51779.20 60194.70 71918.34 87146.78 105940.38 128245.90 153919.42 182749.02 214477.68 248826.00 285515.06 324289.18 364938.76 407323.02 451392.88 497213.66 544988.00 595078.54 648030.82 704596.00 765753.72 832734.86 907044.38 990484.06 1085175.38 1193582.22 1318533.78 1463247.26 1631350.76 1826906.00 2054431.18 2318923.74 2625883.20 2981333.90 3391847.88 3864567.58 4407228.76 5028183.18 5736421.50 10949136.54 20099787.04 35167715.98 58702551.38 144650378.52 312453492.46 610306677.20
36829.86 32449.29 21275.70 12916.23 7006.53 3205.07 1193.10 674.67 1376.64 3048.66 5463.20 8415.50 11723.64 15228.45 18793.59 22305.53 25673.52 28829.60 31728.66 34348.32 36689.06 38774.13 40649.58 42384.26 44069.85 45820.79 47774.33 50090.55 52952.28 56565.18 61157.72 66981.15 74309.52 83439.69 94691.31 108406.85 124951.55 144713.49 168103.50 195555.24 227525.18 264492.57 306959.46 355450.70 410513.97 472719.71 542661.17 620954.43 708238.31 1303473.32 2232412.74 3600563.55 5527682.75 11609104.38 21719733.60 37330626.42
36829.86 69279.15 11173.59 8359.47 5909.69 3801.46 2011.97 518.43 701.97 1672.03 2414.54 2952.31 3308.13 3504.81 3565.15 3511.94 3367.99 3156.09 2899.05 2619.67 2340.74 2085.07 1875.45 1734.69 1685.59 1750.94 1953.55 2316.21 2861.73 3612.91 4592.54 5823.43 7328.37 9130.17 11251.63 13715.54 16544.71 19761.93 23390.01 27451.75 31969.94 36967.39 42466.89 48491.25 55063.27 62205.74 69941.47 78293.25 87283.89 142617.93 217343.37 314310.21 436368.45 767159.13 1232515.41 1855237.29
37508.86 68455.15 12032.59 9269.47 6937.69 4869.46 3318.97 1957.43 755.03 452.03 1265.24 1719.01 1854.13 1788.71 1697.15 1738.04 1644.89 1218.19 646.35 193.27 177.36 635.83 914.45 1262.61 1258.11 1450.96 1670.55 1721.99 1656.07 1249.49 702.16 111.07 157.37 165.77 1049.43 1753.04 1616.41 2852.73 4842.11 5833.95 5331.84 2332.99 4292.51 9986.85 12821.33 12256.86 8403.73 3617.65
Appendix B. The graphic patterns of the relationships between urbanization and output of major energy and resources in China
Appendix C. The graphic patterns of the relationships between urbanization and consumption of major energy and resources in China
See Figure B.1.
See Figure C.1.
297
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al. Relationship between the urbanization and outputs of coal and oil over last 50 years
Hydro-power
Natural gas output (100 mcm)
Relationship between the urbanization and outputs of natural gas and hydro-power over last 50 years
Urbanization rate
Relationship between the urbanization and output of steel over last 50 years
10,000 tons Steel output
Raw iron output 10,000 tons
Iron ore output 10,000 tons
Relationship between the urbanization and outputs of iron ore and raw iron over last 50 years
Urbanization rate
Urbanization rate
Relationship between the urbanization and output of cement over last 50 years
Finished steel 10,000 tons
Cement output 10,000 tons
Relationship between the urbanization and output of finished steel over last 50 years
Urbanization rate
Figure B.1.
Appendix D. Brief introduction to original grey forecasting model Grey theory, developed originally by Deng (1982), is a truly multidisciplinary and generic theory that deals with systems that are characterized by poor, incomplete or uncertain information and/or for which information is lacking. The fields covered by grey theory include systems analysis, data processing, modelling, prediction, decision making and control. The grey forecasting models have been extensively used in many applications (Sun, 1991; Morita, 1996; Huang and Wang, 1997; Hsu and Wen, 1998; Hsu and Chen, 1999; Hao and Wang, 2000; Liu and Deng, 2000; Xing, 2001; Yue and Wang, 2000). The GM(1, 1) is one of the most frequently used grey forecasting model. This model is 298
a time series forecasting model, encompassing a group of differential equations adapted for parameter variance, rather than a first order differential equation. Its difference equations have structures that vary with time rather than being general difference equations. Although it is not necessary to employ all the data from the original series to construct the GM(1, 1), the potency of the series must be more than four. In addition, the data must be taken at equal intervals and in consecutive order without bypassing any data. The GM(1, 1) model constructing process is described below: Denote the original data sequence by ðD:1Þ vð0Þ ¼ vð0Þ ð1Þ; vð0Þ ð2Þ; vð0Þ ð3Þ; . . . ; vð0Þ ðnÞ ; where n is the number of years observed.
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al. Relationship between the urbanization and outputs of phosphate ore over last 50 years
Phosphate ore 10,000 tons
Sulphide iron output 10,000 tons
Relationship between the urbanization and output of sulphide iron ore last 50 years
Urbanization rate
Urbanization rate
Relationship between the urbanization and output of timber over last 50 years
Timber output 10,000 cm
Fertilizers output 10,000 tons
Relationship between the urbanization and outputs of nitrgon, phosphate and potassic fertilizers over last 50 years
Urbanization rate
Urbanization rate
Relationship between the urbanization and output of copper over last 50 years
Copper output
10,000 tons
Aluminum output (10,000 tons)
Relationship between the urbanization and output of aluminum over last 50 years
Urbanization rate
Urbanization rate
Figure B.1 (continued)
The accumulated generation operation (AGO) formation of v(0) is defined as vð1Þ ¼ vð1Þ ð1Þ; vð1Þ ð2Þ; vð1Þð3Þ; . . . ; vð1Þ ðnÞ ; ðD:2Þ where vð1Þ ð1Þ ¼ vð0Þ ð1Þ and vð1Þ ðkÞ ¼
k X
xð0Þ ðmÞ;
m¼1
k ¼ 2; 3; . . . ; n.
ðD:3Þ
The GM(1, 1) model can be constructed by establishing a first order differential equation for v(1)(k) as dvð1Þ ðkÞ=dk þ avð1Þ ðkÞ ¼ b.
ðD:4Þ
Therefore, the solution of Eq. (D.4) can be obtained by using the least square method. That is ! ^b ^b ð1Þ ^v ðkÞ ¼ vð0Þð1Þ ðD:5Þ e^aðk1Þ þ ; ^a ^a
299
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al.
100 mkWh Hydro-power
Natural gas consumption 100 mcm
10,000 tons
Relationship between the urbanization and consumptions of natural gas and hydro-power over last 50 years
Oil consumption
Coal consumption
10,000 tons
Relationship between the urbanization and consumptions of coal and oil over last 50 years
Urbanization rate
Urbanization rate
Timber consumption
Cement consumption 10,000 tons
Raw iron and steel
Iron ore 10,000 tons
10,000 tons
Relationship between the urbanization and consumptions of iron ore,raw iron and steel over last 50 years
10,000 cm
Relationship between the urbanization and consumptions of cement and timber over last 50 years
Urbanization rate
Urbanization rate
Copper consumption 10,000 tons
Aluminum consumption 10,000 tons
Relationship between the urbanization and consumptions of aluminum and copper over last 50 years
Urbanization rate
Figure C.1.
X n ¼ ½xð0Þ ð2Þ; xð0Þ ð3Þ; xð0Þ ð4Þ; . . . ; xð0Þ ðnÞT .
where T
1
½^ a; ^ b ¼ ðB BÞ B X n T
T
ðD:6Þ
and 3 0.5 xð1Þ ð1Þ þ xð1Þ ð2Þ 1 7 6 6 0.5 xð1Þ ð2Þ þ xð1Þ ð3Þ 17 7 6 ; B¼6 .. 7 .. 6 .7 . 5 4 0.5 xð1Þ ðn 1Þ þ xð1Þ ðnÞ 1 2
300
ð1Þ
ðD:8Þ
ð0Þ
We obtained ^x from Eq. (D.5). Let ^x be the fitted and predicted series ^vð0Þ ¼ ^vð0Þ ð1Þ; ^vð0Þ ð2Þ; ^vð0Þ ð3Þ; . . . ; ^vð0Þ ðnÞ; . . . ; ðD:9Þ
ðD:7Þ
where ^xð0Þ ð1Þ ¼ xð0Þ ð1Þ.
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al.
Applying the inverse AGO, we then have ! ^ b ð0Þ ð0Þ ^ v ðkÞ ¼ v ð1Þ ð1 e^a Þ e^aðk1Þ ; k ¼ 2; 3; . . . ; ^ a ðD:10Þ ð0Þ
ð0Þ
ð0Þ
ð0Þ
v ð2Þ; ^ v ð3Þ; . . . ; ^ v ðnÞ; . . . are called where ^ v ð1Þ; ^ the GM(1, 1) fitted sequence, while ^ vð0Þ ðn þ 1Þ; ð0Þ ^ v ðn þ 2Þ; . . . are called the GM(1, 1) forecast values.
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