Friday, January 10, 2014
OCBC Commodities Outlook 2014 Energy Barring production hiccups, the US oil supply abundance seen in 2013 should spill-over to 2014. US shale production is likely to outpace oil-producing OPEC countries (except Saudi Arabia) within the next two years. Despite high production, we remain concerned about the sustainability of production growth given technological limitations. We look for WTI and Brent to touch $85/bbl and $95/bbl respectively at end-2014.
Base Metals The key driver for copper is still essentially influenced by China’s demand. Notably, copper prices snapped its downward trend since November on news that China imports saw 29% yoy growth in Dec 2013, in the midst of lower global inventories. In 2014, we expect the Chinese economy to grow by about 7.5% with upside risks, thus translating into a rather healthy demand outlook for the base metal. Likewise, as the global economic recovery gains traction in 2014, base metals as a growth-related commodity are expected to benefit in tandem.
Commodities Performance Table Updated as of December 31, 2013 Close
Weekly Change
MTD
QTD
US Dollar Index (DXY)
80.0
-0.6%
-0.8%
-0.2%
0.4%
Reuters / Jefferies (CRB)
280.2
1.0%
1.9%
-1.9%
-5.0%
DJIA
16,576.7
0.8%
3.0%
9.6%
28.1%
S&P 500
1,848.4
0.9%
2.4%
9.9%
31.8%
Close
Weekly Change
YTD
Net Weekly Position Change
NYMEX WTI Crude
98.4
3.1%
8.4%
383,587
+2,195
ICE Brent Crude
110.8
2.8%
0.2%
136,611
+7,670
NYMEX RBOB Gasoline
278.6
3.4%
-0.5%
61,989
+5,527
NYMEX Heating Oil
307.7
3.0%
1.1%
-9,159
+7,761
NYMEX Natural Gas
4.2
-2.1%
21.9%
-104,814
+3,156
Base Metals
Close
Weekly Change
LME Copper
7,360.0
-0.4%
-6.7%
10,450
+5,678
LME Aluminum
1,761.8
-0.1%
-13.5%
-
-
LME Nickel
13,843.0
-0.8%
-19.3%
-
-
Precious Metals
Close
Weekly Change
YTD
COMEX Gold
1,202.3
-1.9%
-27.39%
58,316
+3,729
Selected Indices
Energy
COMEX Silver
Precious Metals Without a doubt, 2013 marks a significant milestone for the bullion and a year to remember by when gold bulls ate the humble pie and finally yielded defeat to the bears. Indeed, gold plunged 28.3% to its $1,200/oz handle after 12 consecutive years of appreciation given the reduced pace of US asset purchase. As we start the New Year, the taunt of lower gold prices lingers in the air given possibilities for subsequent QE tapering developments.
The potentially stronger palm oil demand and relatively tame production growth this year are leading signs that palm oil prices may recover in 2014. The key driver for palm oil demand is the increase in biodiesel demand, especially in Malaysia, Indonesia and Brazil, while higher supplies during high production months are likely to limit price gains. As such, we look for crude palm oil prices to gain to as high as MYR3,000/MT in 1Q14, before averaging around MYR2,700/MT in 2014.
Net Weekly Position Change
Net Weekly Position Change
19.3
-3.8%
-35.36%
15,068
+2,840
NYMEX Platinum
1,371.1
-2.2%
-9.64%
23,078
+2,127
NYMEX Palladium
718.3
-1.6%
2.57%
17,376
-171
Agriculture
Close
Weekly Change
YTD
CBOT Corn
422.0
0.4%
-39.2%
-48,041
-9,485
CBOT Wheat
605.3
1.4%
-22.3%
-66,938
-1,592
1,312.5
2.0%
-7.8%
162,758
-19,612
Close
Weekly Change
MTD
QTD
YTD
Thai Hom Mali Rice (THB/KG) 32.3
0.0%
-4.4%
-4.4%
4.9%
Crude Palm Oil (MYR/MT)
2,628.0
1.0%
0.3%
11.6%
11.0%
279.8
1.6%
6.5%
11.4%
-3.1%
CBOT Soybeans Asian Commodities
Rubber (JPY/KG)
Agriculturals and Asian Commodities
YTD
YTD
Net Weekly Position Change
Source:Bloomberg, CFTC, OCBC Note: CFTC net positions for Aluminum and Nickel are unavailable
OCBC Treasury Advisory Analyst:
Corporate FX &
Interest Rate
Barnabas Gan
Structured
Derivatives
+65 6530-1778
Products
Tel: 6349-1899
[email protected]
Tel: 6349-1888 / 1881 Investments &
Institutional
Structured
Sales
Products
Tel: 6349-1810
Tel: 6349-1886
OCBC Treasury & Strategy Research
1
10 January 2014
Commodity Outlook 2014
Energy: It’s the shale story (again)
WTI
Brent
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
WTI-Brent Gap (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Bank Barring production hiccups, the US abundance in supply should spill-over to 2014. US shale production is likely to outpace oil-producing OPEC countries (except Saudi Arabia) within the next two years, according to Exxon Mobil. Given the supply abundance and the falling US dependency on foreign crude, the emerging idea for US to finally repel, or at least loosen, its current oil-export ban may be considered this year. This in itself, is a significant change to the oil environment as US excess oil supplies start pouring in and push oil prices down further. The idea to loosen the current ban has been previously introduced by the American Petroleum Institute (API) in the final months of 2013 given the oil glut. Limitations on shale oil: Similar to our rhetoric in 2013, we also warned on the challenge to sustain the current oil production trend given technical issues pertaining to shale fracking and its technologies. In addition, environmental
OCBC Treasury & Strategy Research
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
10500 10300 10100 9900 9700 9500 9300 9100 8900 8700 8500
Sep-09
9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500
Jan-09
5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30
Jan-10
130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60
US diminishing reliance on foreign crude
May-09
Brent and WTI Spot
challenges may again return to haunt US shale producers should climate concerns re-emerge. Also, note that the US government has also issued a safety alert on shale oil after multiple train crashes, which may infer physical risks to both humans and equipment should shale oil is found to be more flammable than conventional oil. While little consequences to these mishaps have been translated into prices at this juncture, we continue to monitor technological developments and its impact on production and prices.
1000 bpd
Crude oil ended on a rather bearish note in 2013 on supply abundance: Key factors for lower oil prices included (1) strong global oil production, especially from the US shale oil initiative, (2) tame global oil demand growth around its 1% handle in line with historical trend and (3) as a consequence of the first two factors, ballooning US oil inventory levels which finally pressured WTI to its sub-$95 handle at end 2013. The shale oil movement in the US cannot be over-emphasized: according to US DOE data, US crude oil production grew at a robust 20.4% yoy while crude imports (excluding those belonging to strategic reserves) contracted 9.9% yoy in 2013. Inventories on the other hand rose 3.2% yoy over the same period of time, amounting to 361 million barrels vs the 5-year average of 349 million.
Total Crude Oil Production DOE Tot Crud Imp Ex Strtgc Rsv (RHS - 30DMA)
Source: US Department of Energy, Bloomberg, OCBC Bank On the other hand, we remain cautious over potential geopolitical risks. If history is of any reference, oil prices are extremely sensitive to geopolitical tensions, especially those belonging to the Middle East. Let’s be reminded over the 2013’s Middle East tensions including those of Libya, Iran etc, which saw WTI prices climbing above $110/bbl in 2013. On this note, we are comforted by Libya’s recovering oil production levels, now that protests ended at the Al Sharara oil field (300 kbpd production), and Iran’s willingness to adhere to international demands in regards to its nuclear programme. Despite the positivity, geopolitical risks remain to be a wildcard in 2014. Given the expected oil supply abundance for this year, and improving geopolitical conditions in the Middle East, we remain bearish on crude oil prices. Barring geopolitical wildcards and significant production hiccups, we look for WTI and Brent touch $85/bbl and $95/bbl respectively at end2014.
2
10 January 2014
Commodity Outlook 2014
Precious Metals: It’s all about the pace of the taper
35 30
25 20 15
Jan-14
Dec-13
Dec-13
Nov-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
10
Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Bank
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Unemployment Goal: 6.5% PCE Goal: 2.0%
2005
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4
US Federal Reserve remains data-dependent, but favorable data is likely to pressure bullion lower
Chinese gold premium (3mma)
Oct-13
The outlook of the Fed’s asset purchase program and its correlation with gold is perhaps, the most important driver for gold prices in 2014. On this note, while the Federal Reserve remains clearly data-dependent in its decision for subsequent tapering, we note that recent data has been undisputedly favourable: total nonfarm payroll employment rose in October and November at a faster pace vs prior quarters, while unemployment rate declined to its lowest since 2008 at 7.0%.
Sep-13
Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Bank
Sep-13
Gold Futures
Sep-13
Dec-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Sep-10
Jun-10
Total Known ETF Holdings (RHS)
While the prospect of the Fed’s asset purchase program is likely to be the main driver for gold prices this year, gold as a commodity has also been subjected to the whims of global demand factors, especially from India and China. On this, we are reminded of the fall in gold prices in Sep ’13 given India’s effort to curb physical gold imports in efforts to combat the widening current account deficit, and are likely to keep the current gold import curbs to at least March 2014 according to the finance ministry spokeman. Still, we note that May 2014 would be an important month for India, a preferred month for marriages when they commemorate Akshaya Tritiya, a day that symoblises betterment and prosperity. Likewise for China, gold remains to be a symbol of wealth and prestige. As such, the healthy gold demand in China, possibly reflected by higher Chinese old premiums and the rising middle class, may persuade higher physical demand should prices fall further.
Aug-13
85 80 75 70 65 60 55
1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100
Millions
Gold ETF holdings and price fell to their multi-year lows
“improvement in labour market conditions would continue”, and the initial $10bn taper may well be a start to further reduction in asset purchases should indicators continue to improve.
$/oz
Without a doubt, 2013 marks a significant milestone for the bullion and a year to remember by when gold bulls ate the humble pie and finally yielded defeat to the bears. Indeed, gold plunged 28.3% to its $1,200/oz handle after 12 consecutive years of appreciation given the reduced pace of US asset purchase. As we start of the New Year, the taunt of lower gold prices lingers in the air, dragged by possibilities for subsequent QE tapering developments.
Unemployment Rate Personal Consumption Expenditure YOY
Source: Bloomberg, OCBC Bank Meanwhile, other indicators incl uding manufacturing production, personal consumption and labour compensations looks to be on the mend on recent readings. On this, it is noteworthy that FOMC participants generally anticipates that
OCBC Treasury & Strategy Research
All in all, amid all the noises from various leading indicators that may (or may not) serve as a precursor for gold trends, market expectations over subsequent QE tapers is almost certainly the most significant driver for gold prices this year. On this front, should improvements in the US economic indicators be sustained towards the Fed’s longerrun objectives, we opine for the QE to wind down by around 3Q14, while rates may hike (albeit gradual) in 2015. Given this expectation, we look for gold prices to see another year of contraction to $1,150/oz at year end.
3
10 January 2014
Commodity Outlook
Palm Oil: Biodiesel demand is the key to higher prices The Indonesian Palm Oil Association, like all other years, regurgitates its hopes for higher palm oil prices in the first quarter of 2014. But unlike past disappointments, global palm oil prices are likely to see as high as MYR3,000/MT in 1Q14 and average around MYR2,700/MT for the year, up from 2013’s average of MYR2,425/MT. The higher palm oil prices are largely backed by potentially higher global biodiesel demand across the world, especially in Asia, as well as a generally optimistic global growth tone this year which should lift palm oil demand. Indeed, palm oil demand this year appears to be on a stronger note this year, given potentially higher global biodiesel demand. The key pioneers for higher biodiesel consumption, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brazil, have voiced their intentions to increase their biodiesel blend in their fossil fuel content in hope to increase palm oil demand, as well as to reduce their dependency on fuel oil imports. Specifically, Malaysia had is set to implement its nationwide B5 biodiesel programme (5% biodiesel blend) by July 2014 and potentially consuming about 500,000 tonnes of palm oil, while studying the feasibility of introducing B7 and B10 biodiesel blends in the future. In a similar notion, the Indonesian government had also set a higher requirement for a 10% palm oil biodiesel blend, up from 7.5% previously while Brazil seeks to increase its blend to 7% from 5% starting January 2014. As such, the rise of biodiesel use as energy is likely to lift palm oil demand significantly.
translate to higher demand for palm oil. Likewise, the favourable economic indicators, especially from the US, may translate itself into subsequent tapering of the US bond purchase programme, a move that may strengthen the dollar, and vice-versa, weaken the MYR and IDR, thus making their palm oil exports more price-attractive to importers. The only thorn in the flesh however, is the falling palm oil exports to India, which fell a mere 0.7% in the first 11 months of 2013 due to higher import duties. Despite the potentially healthy demand, palm oil supplies are likely to remain abundant this year. The risk remains that high palm oil production, especially from Malaysia and Indonesia, are potentially able to derail the recovery in prices this year, should history be of any reference. While our production forecasts for Malaysia and Indonesia are at 19.5 million tons (estimated +1.6% yoy) and 29 million tons (estimated +5.5% yoy) are relatively soft compared to historical trends, we remain concerned over the injection of palm oil supplies in the seasonally high production months from March – October 2014. On this, should demand fail to absorb the high supplies, potentially ballooning inventory levels that had previously sent palm oil prices to its multi-month lows over the same period last year may come to pass again this year. Malaysia CPO production is expected to fall till March 2014 before picking up seasonally 2100
1900 '000 tons
Recovering export growth is likely to be seen in 2014 150% (3mma)
1500
1300 1100
50%
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
EU
Oct-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
India
Oct-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
China
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
-100%
Total Export
Source: Bloomberg, MPOB, OCBC Bank On the same note, the expected global economic recovery this year is likely to lift palm oil demand. In the case of Malaysia, while most of its customers stem from Asia, the rd favourable economic indicators from the EU and US, the 3 th and 6 largest importer of Malaysia’s palm oil, may ultimately
OCBC Treasury & Strategy Research
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-50%
2008
900
0%
2007
YOY
100%
1700
MY CPO Production ('000 tons) 2014 Projected Trajectory
The potentially stronger palm oil demand and relatively tame production growth this year are leading signs that palm oil prices may recover in 2014. The key driver for palm oil demand is the increase of biodiesel demand, especially in Malaysia, Indonesia and Brazil, while higher supplies during production high months are likely to limit price gains. As such, we look for crude palm oil prices to gain to as high as MYR3,000/MT in 1Q14, before averaging around MYR2,700/MT in 2014.
4
10 January 2014
Commodity Outlook 2014
Appendix OCBC Commodity Price Forecast 2014 2013 Q1
Q2
2014 Q3
Q4
Q1F
Q2F
Q3F
Q4F
Energy WTI ($/bbl)
94.4
94.2
105.8
97.6
94.5
91.3
88.2
85.0
Brent ($/bbl)
112.6
103.4
109.7
109.4
105.8
102.2
98.6
95.0
Gasoline ($/gallon)
2.99
2.83
2.91
2.66
2.95
2.85
2.75
2.66
Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)
3.48
4.02
3.56
3.85
3.04
2.82
2.62
3.03
Precious Metals Gold ($/oz)
1,631
1,417
1,327
1,274
1,243
1,212
1,181
1,150
Silver ($/oz)
30.1
23.2
21.4
20.8
20.4
20.0
19.6
19.2
Platinum ($/oz)
1,634
1,468
1,454
1,398
1,344
1,347
1,350
1,353
Palladium ($/oz)
741
714
724
725
710
673
638
605
Base Metals Copper ($/MT)
7,958
7,190
7,099
7,169
7,177
7,185
7,192
7,200
23,230
19,675
23,300
22,350
20,124
20,464
20,814
21,176
148.2
125.8
132.6
134.9
120.0
121.2
122.3
123.5
17,376
15,035
14,019
13,978
14,498
14,662
14,829
15,000
Zinc ($/MT)
2,054
1,876
1,897
1,932
1,806
1,804
1,802
1,800
Aluminum ($/MT)
2,041
1,871
1,828
1,815
1,852
1,842
1,832
1,823
Tin ($/MT) Iron Ore ($/MT) Nickel ($/MT)
Source: OCBC Bank, Bloomberg
OCBC Treasury & Strategy Research
5
10 January 2014
Commodity Outlook 2014
Commodities CFTC Positioning Charts NYMEX WTI
HEATING OIL
Net Spec Positions
Generic 1st 'HO' Future (RHS)
NYBOT COCOA
Generic 1st 'CC' Future (RHS)
OCBC Treasury & Strategy Research
USd/lb
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
100 50
USd/lb
150
Net Spec Positions
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
Feb-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
Aug-10
Feb-10
Aug-09
0 Feb-09
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
Feb-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
Aug-10
Feb-10
Aug-09
Feb-09
2000
200
Aug-08
2400
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 Feb-08
2800
Contracts ('000)
3200
USD/MT
3600
Aug-08
Generic 1st 'KC' Future (RHS)
NYBOT COTTON
100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40
Feb-08
Feb-10
Net Spec Positions
Generic 1st 'XB' Future (RHS)
Feb-12
100 Aug-11
-40 Feb-11
150 Aug-10
-20 Aug-09
200
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
Feb-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
Aug-10
Feb-10
Aug-09
Feb-09
Aug-08
Feb-08
100
0
Feb-09
150
250
20
Aug-08
200
300
40
Feb-08
250
Contracts ('000)
300
USd/gallon
350
Net Spec Positions
USD/MMBtu
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
Feb-12
Generic 1st 'NG' Future (RHS)
NYBOT COFFEE
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Net Spec Positions
USD/bbl
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jan-13
Aug-11
Feb-11
Feb-10
Aug-09
Feb-09
12 10 8 6 4 2
Aug-08
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
Feb-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-09
Aug-09
Aug-08
-40
0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350
Feb-08
0 -20
Contracts ('000)
20
USd/gallon
40
Feb-08
Contracts ('000)
400 350 300 250 200 150 100
NYMEX GASOLINE
Contracts ('000)
Generic 1st 'CO' Future (RHS)
NATURAL GAS
60
Contracts ('000)
Jul-12
Net Spec Positions
Generic 1st 'CL' Future (RHS)
Net Spec Positions
Apr-12
Oct-11
Aug-13
Feb-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Aug-11
0
Aug-10
Net Spec Positions
Feb-11
Aug-10
Feb-10
Feb-09
Aug-09
Aug-08
0
50
Jan-12
100
100
Jul-11
200
150
Apr-11
300
130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90
200
Jan-11
400
Contracts ('000)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Feb-08
Contracts ('000)
500
USD/bbl
ICE BRENT
Generic 1st 'CT' Future (RHS)
6
10 January 2014
Commodity Outlook 2014
Generic 1st 'SB' Future (RHS)
Net Spec Positions
Generic 1st 'W ' Future (RHS)
Generic 1st 'GC' Future (RHS)
OCBC Treasury & Strategy Research
Net Spec Positions
Aug-13
Feb-13
Feb-12
USd/bushel
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
Feb-12
Aug-11
USd/bushel
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
Feb-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
Aug-10
USD/t. oz
Aug-13
Feb-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
Aug-10
Feb-10
Aug-09
Feb-09
50 40 30 20 10 0 Aug-08
Aug-13
Feb-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-11
Aug-11
Aug-10
Feb-10
Aug-09
800
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Feb-08
1100
Contracts ('000)
1400
USD/t. oz
1700
Feb-09
Generic 1st 'S ' Future (RHS)
COMEX SILVER
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Aug-08
Feb-10
Net Spec Positions
COMEX GOLD
Net Spec Positions
Aug-09
Feb-09
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800
Aug-08
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50
Feb-08
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
Feb-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
Aug-10
Feb-10
Aug-09
Feb-09
Aug-08
400
Contracts ('000)
USd/bushel
600
Net Spec Positions
Generic 1st 'C ' Future (RHS)
CBOT SOYBEAN
800
Feb-08
Feb-11
Aug-10
Feb-10
Aug-09
Feb-09
Aug-08
300
Generic 1st 'HG' Future (RHS)
40 10 -20 -50 -80
Feb-08
Aug-12
500
CBOT WHEAT
Contracts ('000)
Aug-11
700
Net Spec Positions
Contracts ('000)
Feb-11
500 400 300 200 100 0 -100
Feb-08
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
Feb-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
2000 Aug-10
-40 Feb-10
4000 Feb-09
6000
Aug-09
0 -20
Contracts ('000)
8000
USD/MT
10000
20
Feb-08
Generic 1st 'JO' Future (RHS)
CBOT CORN
40
Aug-08
Contracts ('000)
COMEX COPPER
Net Spec Positions
Aug-10
Feb-10
Feb-08
Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-10
Net Spec Positions
Aug-10
Aug-09
Aug-08
Feb-09
10
Feb-09
15
210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50
Aug-09
20
23 18 13 8 3 -2 -7
Aug-08
25
Contracts ('000)
30
USd/lb
35
USd/lb
NYBOT ORANGE JUICE
250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100
Feb-08
Contracts ('000)
NYBOT SUGAR
Generic 1st 'SI' Future (RHS)
7
10 January 2014
Commodity Outlook 2014
500 300
Generic 1st 'PL' Future (RHS)
Generic 1st 'LH' Future (RHS)
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
Feb-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
Feb-10
100 60 20
Net Spec Positions
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
Feb-12
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-09
Aug-09
-20
USD/t. oz
135 125 115 105 95 85 75 Feb-08
Aug-13
Feb-13
Aug-12
Feb-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
Aug-10
Feb-10
Aug-09
40
Feb-09
Generic 1st 'PA' Future (RHS)
140
Aug-08
60
Contracts ('000)
80
USD/t. oz
100
Aug-08
Aug-10
Feb-09
Net Spec Positions
CME LIVE CATTLE
90 70 50 30 10 -10 -30
Feb-08
Contracts ('000)
Aug-09
100
CME LEAN HOGS
Net Spec Positions
USD/t. oz
700
Feb-08
USD/t. oz
900
Aug-08
Feb-13
28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0
Aug-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-11
Net Spec Positions
Aug-11
Aug-10
Feb-10
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-08
2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800
Contracts ('000)
NYMEX PALLADIUM
55 45 35 25 15 5 -5 Aug-08
Contracts ('000)
NYMEX PLATINUM
Generic 1st 'LC' Future (RHS)
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg
OCBC Treasury & Strategy Research
8
10 January 2014
Commodity Outlook 2014
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OCBC Treasury & Strategy Research
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